ETF2100 Introductory econometrics Unit Guide Semester 1, 2015 Copyright © Monash University 2014. All rights reserved. Except as provided in the Copyright Act 1968, this work may not be reproduced in any form without the written permission of the host Faculty and School/Department. The information contained in this unit guide is correct at time of publication. The University has the right to change any of the elements contained in this document at any time. Last updated: 03 Feb 2015 Table of Contents ETF2100 Introductory econometrics - Semester 1, 2015.......................................................................1 Mode of Delivery..............................................................................................................................1 Workload requirements....................................................................................................................1 Unit Relationships............................................................................................................................1 Prerequisites........................................................................................................................1 Prohibitions..........................................................................................................................1 Chief Examiner(s)........................................................................................................................................1 Campus Lecturer(s).....................................................................................................................................1 Caulfield...........................................................................................................................................1 Tutor(s)........................................................................................................................................................2 Caulfield...........................................................................................................................................2 Your feedback to Us....................................................................................................................................2 Previous Student Evaluations of this Unit....................................................................................................2 Academic Overview...................................................................................................................................3 Learning Outcomes.........................................................................................................................3 Unit Schedule.............................................................................................................................................4 Teaching Approach..........................................................................................................................4 Assessment Summary.....................................................................................................................5 Hurdle Requirements...........................................................................................................5 Second marking...................................................................................................................5 Return of final marks............................................................................................................5 Assessment criteria..............................................................................................................5 Assessment Requirements......................................................................................................................6 Assessment Tasks...........................................................................................................................6 Assessment task 1...............................................................................................................6 Assessment task 2...............................................................................................................6 Assessment task 3...............................................................................................................6 Examination(s).............................................................................................................................................6 Examination 1..................................................................................................................................6 Learning resources......................................................................................................................................7 Feedback to you..........................................................................................................................................7 Assignment submission...............................................................................................................................7 Hard copy submission.....................................................................................................................7 Online submission...........................................................................................................................7 Prescribed text(s) and readings.......................................................................................................7 Recommended text(s) and readings................................................................................................7 Other Information......................................................................................................................................8 Policies............................................................................................................................................8 Graduate Attributes Policy...................................................................................................8 Student Charter...........................................................................................................................................8 Student services..........................................................................................................................................8 Monash University Library...........................................................................................................................8 Moodle 2......................................................................................................................................................8 Disability Liaison Unit..................................................................................................................................9 ETF2100 Introductory econometrics - Semester 1, 2015 Econometrics is a set of research tools employed not only in economics but also in business disciplines. This unit covers the basic tools for estimation in the context of simple and multiple linear regression, the sampling properties of the least squares estimator, statistical inference and hypothesis testing. It also covers regression with dummy variables, model specification issues and estimation problems when least squares assumptions are violated. EViews is used as the software package. Mode of Delivery Caulfield (Day) Workload requirements Minimum total expected workload to achieve the learning outcomes for this unit is 144 hours per semester typically comprising a mixture of scheduled learning activities and independent study. Independent study may include associated readings, assessment and preparation for scheduled activities. The unit requires on average three/four hours of scheduled activities per week. Scheduled activities may include a combination of teacher directed learning, peer directed learning and online engagement. See also Unit timetable information Unit Relationships Prerequisites Students must have completed ETX1100 or equivalent before undertaking this unit or must be enrolled in course 3822 or 4412. Prohibitions ETC2410, ETC3440, ECC2410 Chief Examiner(s) Professor Duangkamon Chotikapanich (First semester) Professor Param Silvapulle (Second semester) Campus Lecturer(s) Caulfield Professor Duangkamon Chotikapanich 1 ETF2100 Introductory econometrics - Semester 1, 2015 Tutor(s) Caulfield Dr Ari Handayani Campus: Caulfield Phone: +61 3 990 34349 Email: Ari.Handayani@monash.edu Mr David Gunawan Campus: Caulfield Phone: +61 3 990 34530 Email: David.Gunawan@monash.edu Your feedback to Us Monash is committed to excellence in education and regularly seeks feedback from students, employers and staff. One of the key formal ways students have to provide feedback is through the Student Evaluation of Teaching and Units (SETU) survey. The University’s student evaluation policy requires that every unit is evaluated each year. Students are strongly encouraged to complete the surveys. The feedback is anonymous and provides the Faculty with evidence of aspects that students are satisfied and areas for improvement. For more information on Monash’s educational strategy, see: www.monash.edu.au/about/monash-directions/ and on student evaluations, see: www.policy.monash.edu/policy-bank/academic/education/quality/student-evaluation-policy.html Previous Student Evaluations of this Unit If you wish to view how previous students rated this unit, please go to https://emuapps.monash.edu.au/unitevaluations/index.jsp 2 Academic Overview Learning Outcomes The learning goals associated with this unit are to: 1. apply econometric tools to modelling, estimation, inference, and forecasting in the context of real world economic and business problems 2. formulate and test hypotheses about the relationships between variables 3. understand the nature and consequences of violation of the classical assumptions and know how to test for violations 4. apply the skills and knowledge from the unit to real situations in business and economics 5. demonstrate the ability to generate and analyse EViews computer output for business and economic applications. 3 Unit Schedule Week Activities 0 Assessment No formal assessment or activities are undertaken in week 0 1 Introduction: econometrics, data. Simple Linear Regression (SLR): assumptions. Required reading: Chapters 1 and 2. 2 SLR continued: least squares (LS) estimation, interpretation, prediction, repeated sampling, Gauss-Markov theorem, probability distributions of the LS estimators, the error term. Required reading: Chapter 2. 3 Interval estimation and hypothesis tests: t-distribution, null and alternative hypotheses, test statistic, one and two tail tests, level of significance, p-value, confidence intervals. Required reading: Chapter 3 and 4. 4 Prediction, Goodness-of-fit, scaling, functional form. Required reading: Chapters 4 and 5. 5 Multiple Linear Regression (MLR): assumptions, least Assignment 1 squares estimation, interpretation. Required reading: Chapter 5. 6 Hypothesis tests, t- and F-tests, Goodness of fit, omitted variables, irrelevant variables, RESET test. Required reading: Chapters 5 and 6. 7 Further Inference in Multiple Regression Model Violating MLR assumptions: collinearly, heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation. Required reading: Chapter 6. 8 Using Indicator Variable. Required reading: Chapter 7. 9 Heteroskedasticity. Required reading: Chapter 8 10 Heteroskedasticity (continued) and Autocorrelation. Required reading: Chapter 9 11 Autocorrelation. Required reading: Chapter 9 12 Autocorrelation (continued)+ Brief revision Assignment 3 SWOT VAC No formal assessment is undertaken SWOT VAC Examination period LINK to Assessment Policy: http://policy.monash.edu.au/policy-bank/ academic/education/assessment/ assessment-in-coursework-policy.html Assignment 2 Teaching Approach 4 Unit Schedule Assessment Summary Within semester assessment: 35% Examination: 65% Assessment Task Value Due Date Assignment 1 10% Week 5 Assignment 2 15% Week 9 Assignment 3 10% Week 12 Examination 1 65% To be advised Hurdle Requirements There is a hurdle requirement in this unit. Students are required to achieve at least 48% in the final examination. Where a student fails the unit solely because of failure to satisfy the hurdle requirement a maximum mark of 48% will be returned for the unit. Second marking Where an assessment task is given a fail grade by an examiner, that piece of work will be marked again by a second examiner who will independently evaluate the work, and consult with the first marker. No student will be awarded a fail grade for an assessment task or unit without a second examiner confirming the result. Note: Exceptions to this are individual pieces of assessment contributing 10% or less of the final mark, unless the total of such pieces exceeds 30% of the final mark. Return of final marks Faculty policy states that 'the final mark that a student receives for a unit will be determined by the Board of Examiners on the recommendation of the Chief Examiner taking into account all aspects of assessment'. The final mark for this unit will be released by the Board of Examiners on the date nominated in the Faculty Calendar. Student results will be accessible through the my.monash portal. Assessment criteria Assessment Criteria Grading Descriptors available at: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/esg/agu/policies/assessment.html. 5 Assessment Requirements Assessment Tasks • Assessment task 1 Title: Assignment 1 Due date: Week 5 Details of task: Weighting/Value: 10% Estimated return date: • Assessment task 2 Title: Assignment 2 Due date: Week 9 Details of task: Weighting/Value: 15% Estimated return date: • Assessment task 3 Title: Assignment 3 Due date: Week 12 Details of task: Weighting/Value: 10% Estimated return date: Examination(s) • Examination 1 Weighting: 65% Length: 2 hours Type (open/closed book): Closed book Hurdle requirements: The Pass mark in this unit is 50% overall. Students must score at least 48% in the final examination in order to qualify for a Pass in the unit. 6 Assessment Requirements A student's final mark is normally the sum of the marks obtained in all of the individual assessment items in the unit. Where a student fails the unit solely because of failure to satisfy the hurdle requirement a maximum mark of 48 will be returned for the unit. Electronic devices allowed in the exam: calculator Learning resources Monash Library Unit Reading List (if applicable to the unit) http://readinglists.lib.monash.edu/index.html Feedback to you Types of feedback you can expect to receive in this unit are: • Solutions to tutes, labs and assignments Assignment submission Hard copy submission All assignments are to be submitted to the lecturer's mailbox on level 5, Building H. Online submission If Electronic Submission has been approved for your unit, please submit your work via the learning system for this unit, which you can access via links in the my.monash portal. Prescribed text(s) and readings Hill, R.C., W.E. Griffiths, and G.C. Lim, Principles of Econometrics, 4th edition: Wiley2010. This prescribed text is available from the bookshop and the library. It will be sold as a package with Using EViews for Principles of Econometrics: which contains a student version of EViews 7 so that students can install and use on their personal computers. Recommended text(s) and readings Wooldridge, J.M., Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, 4th Edition, South-Western Cengage Learning 2009. Gujarati, D.N., Basic Econometrics, 4th edition: McGraw Hill 2002. 7 Other Information Policies Monash has educational policies, procedures and guidelines, which are designed to ensure that staff and students are aware of the University’s academic standards, and to provide advice on how they might uphold them. You can find Monash’s Education Policies at: www.policy.monash.edu.au/policy-bank/academic/education/index.html Key educational policies include: • Student Academic Integrity Policy and Student Academic Integrity: Managing Plagiarism and Collusion Procedures ; • Assessment in Coursework Programs; • Special Consideration; • Grading Scale; • Discipline: Student Policy; • Academic Calendar and Semesters; • Orientation and Transition; and • Academic and Administrative Complaints and Grievances Policy. Graduate Attributes Policy http://www.policy.monash.edu/policy-bank/academic/ education/management/monash-graduate-attributes-policy.html Student Charter www.opq.monash.edu.au/ep/student-charter/monash-university-student-charter.html Student services The University provides many different kinds of support services for you. Contact your tutor if you need advice and see the range of services available at http://www.monash.edu.au/students Monash University Library The Monash University Library provides a range of services, resources and programs that enable you to save time and be more effective in your learning and research. Go to www.lib.monash.edu.au or the library tab in my.monash portal for more information. Moodle 2 All unit and lecture materials, plus other information of importance to students, are available through the virtual learning environment Moodle site. You can access Moodle via the my.monash portal. Where to go for help If you're stuck, confused or simply not sure how to approach Moodle, there are a number of Moodle resources that you can tap into. 8 Other Information Disability Liaison Unit Students who have a disability or medical condition are welcome to contact the Disability Liaison Unit to discuss academic support services. Disability Liaison Officers (DLOs) visit all Victorian campuses on a regular basis. • Website: http://www.monash.edu/equity-diversity/disability/index.html • Telephone: 03 9905 5704 to book an appointment with a DLO; • Email: dlu@monash.edu • Drop In: Equity and Diversity Centre, Level 1, Building 55, Clayton Campus. 9