2/6/2013
Defining Racially Polarized Voting
Racially polarized voting exists when voters of different racial or ethnic groups exhibit very different candidate preferences in an election. It means simply that voters of different groups are voting in opposite directions, rather than in a coalition.
RPV does not mean voters are racist, it only measures the outcomes of voting patterns and determines whether patterns exist based on race/ethnicity
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
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Defining Racially Polarized Voting
Bottom line: minority voters are voting one way, and non‐minority voters are voting another way
But because White voters are more numerous in the at‐
large system, minority voters systematically lose.
The analysis is about the individual voters within a jurisdiction. It does not imply that the governing body or appointed officials are acting in a racially discriminatory fashion. Even if a governing body is well intentioned, the individual voters across the county may behave in a way that blocks minority representation.
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
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2/6/2013
Defining Racially Polarized Voting
RPV can vary in degree of intensity, and it can be easily measured and quantified using statistical analysis that has been accepted by the courts.
We now have very good data collection methods that can tell us electoral preferences precinct by precinct. And because we also have very detailed demographic data that goes precinct by precinct, we can determine with confidence how certain constituencies are voting.
Harvard Prof. Gary King has developed a technique called “Ecological Inference” which has been accepted by state and federal courts as a reliable method
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
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Measuring Polarized Voting
Y‐axis measures percent of the vote won by the candidate in each precinct
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
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2/6/2013
Measuring Polarized Voting
Y‐axis measures percent of the vote won by the candidate in each precinct
X‐axis measures percent of all voters within a precinct who are Latino
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
Measuring Polarized Voting
Y‐axis measures percent of the vote won by the candidate in each precinct
Each dot represents the precinct result
X‐axis measures percent of all voters within a precinct who are Latino
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
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2/6/2013
Yakima County Commission 2008
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
WA 14th LD 2008
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
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2/6/2013
WA 14th LD 2008
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
WA 15th LD 2012 General
0
.2
pct_gonzalez
.4
pct_latino
.6
.8
Fitted values
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
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2/6/2013
Yakima Prop 1 Vote 2011
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
Examples beyond Yakima
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2/6/2013
Grant County Sup Ct Primary 2012
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
Adams County Sup Ct Primary 2012
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
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2/6/2013
Othello School Board, 2003
0.7
% Vote for Rodriguez
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
% Latino in Precinct
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
Quincy & Wahluke local elections, 2011
0.7
% for Latino candidate
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
% Latino in Precinct
0.6
0.7
0.8
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
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.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
Tacoma School Board 2011
0
.2
.4
pct_minority
pct_washington
.6
.8
Fitted values
Analysis by: Professor Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington
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