Saint Joseph’s University Haub School of Business Working Paper Series No: 11-4 Pricing Food Quality Attributes: Dissecting Cereal and Salty Snack Products Christopher Shanahan Neal Hooker (Saint Joseph’s University) Tekle Atalay Pricing Food Quality Attributes: Dissecting Cereal and Salty Snack Products By Christopher Shanahan, Neal H. Hooker* and Tekle Atalay *Contact Author Neal H. Hooker, CJ McNutt Professor Department of Food Marketing Saint Joseph’s University Mandeville 27 278, 5600 City Avenue Philadelphia PA, 19131 Email: nhooker@sju.edu Tel: (610) 660-3481 Fax: (610) 660-1997 Department of Food Marketing April, 2011 Pricing Food Quality Attributes: Dissecting Cereal and Salty Snack Products Paper presented at Price Measurement Workshop Center for Applied Economic Research Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales Sydney, Australia. December 10, 2008 Abstract Food businesses are using a range of promotional messages and positioning claims to keep up with increasingly complex consumer concerns about nutrition, health and well being, provenance, and the ethical and environmental impacts of their ingredient choices. Such efforts may also promote novel pricing strategies. This study uses hedonic pricing models to explore the marginal implicit price of various quality attributes in two food categories. Results indicate that nutrient content levels and the practice of second-degree price discrimination are nonlinearly related to the price per serving for cereal and salty snack product lines. Organic quality claims enjoy an appreciable premium (3-7 cents per serving). Private label products and innovative products have significant price discounts (5-13 cents per serving). The findings of this study indicate that offer prices per serving vary based on the design specification of the products. To be effective such pricing strategies must recognize relationships between key food quality attributes and consumer willingness to pay. Keywords: Hedonic Pricing Model, Organic, Location Association, Health and Nutrition Marketing Claims 0 Introduction The use of value added product claims is an integral part of food manufacturer’s differentiation strategy decisions (Shanahan, Sporleder and Hooker, 2008). Many firms recognize that they can create a competitive advantage by discovering new combinations of value added product claims in order to differentiate their product relative to the competition (Nagle and Holden, 2002). As such, a firm’s choice of a competitive advantage strategy is an innovative act (Stanford, 2007). An innovative act occurs when two or more previously unrelated elements are combined in order to create a new “qualitative distinct whole” where the new product has a function that is different from the individual antecedent parts (Harper and Liecht, 2002). Such product strategies can be successful when rivals fail to respond (no imitation). Porter (1991) suggests that the maintenance of competitive advantage involves the dynamic management of a given firm’s value chain rather than treating each quality attribute creation activity as a collection of separate parts. Thus, creating a competitive advantage becomes a function of the interaction of food quality attributes, not simply the sum of each activity’s contribution. Hedonic pricing models are often used to explore individual quality attribute differentiation strategies across industries, including food and beverage. Specifically, the hedonic model specification relates the selling price of a product to a set of product and quality characteristics possessed by the product and provides insight into which attributes have the greatest correlation with a product’s price. With respect to food and beverage products, these models can incorporate a rich variety of quality characteristics, including detailed nutrition content and the presence of various product positioning messages such as health claims, provenance and production methods. In addition, the impact of brand type, second-degree price discrimination, and the degree of product innovation can be incorporated into these pricing models. This model specification can be used to determine whether marketing communications which describe multiple quality claims on an individual product offer higher implicit value for the product characteristic or if the interaction of such messages are or are not synergistic (Teratanavat and Hooker, 2006). This study explores the use of various food quality claims on cereal and salty snack product labels. Specifically, this study tests several hypotheses and attempts to answer pressing questions concerning the increased use of food labeling claims and manufacturer’s willingness to charge 1 for new products. Variance in nutritional content is expected to have an impact on the price per serving that differs across “good” and “bad” characteristics. In addition, the use of nutrition content, health, provenance, and organic claims are likely to positively impact price. It is expected that as the number of product claims used by a firm increases, so the marginal impact on the premium for each quality characteristic will change, and most likely decline. Other factors are explored in thus study including the impact of increasing the number of servings per product - expected to negatively impact the price per serving at a decreasing rate if food manufacturers are practicing second-degree price discrimination (Nagle and Holden, 2002). This study also controls for the type of brand. Specifically, private label food products are expected to have a discounted price relative to manufacturer branded food products. Finally, the study explores if food manufacturers and retailers follow a price penetration strategy (Nagle and Holden, 2002) when marketing new product lines or new varieties. Literature Review Consumer’s price sensitivity for a given product varies over the product’s life cycle as they accumulate knowledge about the value adding qualities the product possesses (Nagle and Holden, 2002) With respect to product innovations, consumers initially tend to be relatively price insensitive due to a lack of information about the product (Nagle and Holden, 2002). Sensitivity increases over time as consumers learn about product attributes and compare to product alternatives. Initially, consumers use the product offer price as a gauge of the product’s perceived quality particularly when there are few substitutes with similar quality bundles. Manufacturers of new food and beverage products, typically experience goods, often price new introductions, relaunches or new varieties at a discount to penetrate the market and overcome disadvantages of weak appropriability (Sporleder, et al., 2008). Building on these observations, Nagle and Holden (2002) suggest that an innovation’s price should incorporate the product value while recognizing the role of a reference price on consumer’s perceived level of quality (Dawer and Parker, 1994; Nagle and Holden, 2002). Specific to the food and beverage industry, concerns over nutrition, health and well-being, provenance, and the ethical and environment impact of food choices are growing and in response, 2 retailers and manufacturers are providing products with a range of new functional ingredients and promotional claims (Duram, 2005; Richards and Padilla, 2007). Accordingly, food label regulation is also increasing in intricacy, attempting to ensure that the information consumers receive is reliable and sufficient to facilitate purchase decisions (Mojduszka and Caswell, 2000). Processed food sold in the US, for example, must have a name signaling the product’s identity, information about who makes it, a correct and standard measure of its ingredient content, and a nutrition facts label (FDA, 1999). In addition, any added-value claims used by food manufacturers that address the relative nutritional quality of the product, claims that relate to a health benefit, and claims concerning a food’s organic identity are standardized by regulations in order to protect consumers from frivolous or deceptive marketing. The presentation of nutritional information on food labels was standardized by the implementation of the Nutrition Labeling and Education Act (NLEA) under the authority of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Under the NLEA, all processed foods are required to display in a standardized format the nutritional content of the product, presented in the Nutrition Facts statement. Food manufacturers must make available information on fifteen key nutrients and four macronutrients regardless of whether significant levels are present including calories, total fat, sodium, total carbohydrates and protein (See the FDA’s A Food Labeling Guide for the full list of required nutrients). The ten other nutrients may be omitted if content levels are insignificant. Other nutrients may be included on a voluntary basis, but are also defined by the NLEA and must be listed in a specific order (FDA, 1999). Macronutrients, except for sugar and protein, must also state the "Percent Daily Value" (DV) relative to a 2000 calorie diet to provide consumers an easy gauge to compare the nutritional quality of various product alternatives. Vitamin and mineral content are always presented in DV if included. In addition to the Nutrition Facts statement, NLEA also regulates the use of nutrient content claims and health claims (FDA, 1999). Nutrient content claims declare the level of a nutrient in a food, health claims link the nutrient content of a given product to a specific health condition. Claims such as "low fat" or "low in sodium", which are usually placed on the front panel of the package, are recognized as a form of promotion that highlights the relative nutritional content of the product. Nutrient content claims can be voluntarily used by processors, but if used, the 3 NLEA specifies how they may be used, including certain product composition standards. Manufacturers also have the option to use health claims if they can provide sufficient scientific evidence that the nutritional content of their product lowers the risk of a specific health condition (Ross, 2000). FDA carefully regulates health claims recognizing the dynamic nature of the science of functional foods. Currently, health claims are hierarchal based on the amount of supporting scientific research underlying the correlation between lowered potential risk of a specific health malady and a given nutrient (Hooker and Teratanavat, 2008). A location association claim (LAC) is a quality attribute which specifies the geographic origin of production (or processing). Locales vary by specific market and environmental factors which directly influence the level of quality, such as culture, climate and natural resources. Many locales, and by association products from those locales, have obtained valuable reputations and it has been shown that consumers are willing to pay premiums for knowledge of a product’s geographic origin (Atalay, Hooker and Shanahan, 2007). As such, incentives exist for manufacturers marketing products with location association claims to push for the protection of their exclusive use of LAC claims (and restrict use by firms outside the locale) through government regulation, much like a trademark. Examples from Europe are common (Protected Denomination of Origin/Geographical Indications – see, e.g., Souza Monteiro and Caswell, 2008). Similar claims are appearing in North America (Atalay, Hooker and Shanahan, 2007). Unlike a trademark, however, the exclusive use of a LAC claim is afforded to all producers or manufacturers located within the locale. When a food manufacturer declares that their product is organic, this implies that the ingredients, and final product, were produced under a specific set of practices that emphasize renewable resources and conservation of soil and water (AMS, 2000). If firms want to use the organic claim, their production facilities are required to be notarized by the USDA under the National Organic Program (NOP), a national-level organic quality standard which requires a government-approved third-party certifier to inspect the facilities (AMS, 2000). Similar to health claims, a hierarchal labeling system exists for multiple-ingredient organic food based on the content of organic ingredients. The levels in descending order are 100% Organic, Organic (contains at least 95% organic content), Made with organic ingredients (contains at least 70% organic content) and 4 Some Organic Ingredients (contains less than 70% organic content) 1 . Only products which qualify for the top two levels can use the official USDA Organic seal on the front panel of their product label. Batte, et al. (2007) found that the price premium for an organic quality claim may have increased following the implementation of the US Department of Agriculture’s national standard for organic certification (NOP) in 2002. There are also many other factors that impact food and beverage manufacturer pricing decisions that are indirectly related to the product’s quality. For example, many marketers tend to follow two primary pricing strategies that are independent of the product’s quality attributes when they are introducing a product into the market place: price skimming and penetration pricing (Roa, 1984). Price skimming usually involves a high introductory price matched with heavy promotion, with the price gradually decreasing over the product’s life cycle. This price strategy is most effective when the firm correctly assumes that initial demand is relatively price insensitive and decreases overtime (Nagle and Holden, 2002). When a firm wants to establish a large market share, price penetration may be an optimal strategy (Nagle and Holden, 2002). The basic penetration price strategy implies a low introductory price which slowly rises as demand grows. Then price stabilizes during the maturity stage of the product’s life cycle. Firms introducing new nondurable goods, such as food products, tend to use a price penetration strategy but may use a price skimming strategy depending on the relative amount of new quality attributes (relative to the category) the product possesses (Kerin et al., 2006). Food and beverage manufacturers also employ quantity discount pricing as a differentiation strategy (Nagle and Holden, 2002). Specifically, larger product packages are often less costly per unit (serving) relative to smaller packages. This is the same phenomenon as bulk purchasing when a wholesaler purchases products in large quantities at a lower price per item, or unit price, from a manufacturer. Evidence of such second degree price discrimination is explored below. The type of company that owns the brand (including manufacturer-owned brands or retailerowned private label brands) can also impact pricing strategies. National or manufacturer’s 1 Batte, et al. (2007) provides the first empirical evidence of consumer willingness to pay for various levels of organic content under the NOP labeling scheme. 5 brands often exert heavy promotional effort in order to build consumer loyalty, attract new consumers and enhance the prestige of their products and the retailers who sell their product. Also, manufacturer’s brands tend to have more extensive distribution networks and private brands tend to exert relatively less promotional and distribution effort compared to manufacture’s brands (Richards, Hamilton, and Patterson, 2007). A private brand also affords retailers some protection from manufacturer’s decisions to withdraw a product line and guard against possible up-stream competition from manufacturers (Richards, Hamilton, and Patterson, 2007). In addition, retailers have little control over the magnitude of distribution of manufacturer’s branded products compared to their own private brands. The primary consequence of the differences between manufacturer’s brands and private brands is that private brands tend to be lower in price relative to manufacturer’s brands, which may influence a buyer’s perception that private brands are of a lower quality relative to manufacturer’s brands (Richards, Hamilton, and Patterson, 2007). However, it is possible that private brands are likely to benefit in the current economic downturn as consumers increasingly switch away from value-added food products toward relatively more affordable alternatives due to increasingly constrained food budgets. In summary, many food and beverage manufacturers recognize that consumers derive utility from various combinations of quality characteristics and therefore price products accordingly. The retail recommended price of a new food product is the manufacturer’s willingness to accept or charge for varying design specifications at time of launch of the food product given their expectations of consumer willingness to pay for varying bundles of quality attributes (Rosen, 1974). A firm’s optimal choice of which quality characteristic bundle and what to charge, its differentiation strategy, is determined by selecting the quality attribute bundle that maximizes long-run profit. Methodology The hedonic price model is based on the theory that consumers derive utility from some combination of valued services that a particular product is able to provide (Stanley and Tschirhart, 1991). In turn, each service is a functional combination of product characteristics that the product exhibits. Thus, consumer utility is a function of a product’s bundle of quality 6 characteristics: (1) U (Qi , X ) (2) Qi = s m ( z n ), n = 1..N , m = 1..M where sm are the m number of services product Qi provides and zn is the n number of quality characteristics possessed by product Qi. Depending on the level of zn (which may be binary, scalar or continuous), each quality characteristic can positively or negatively impact the value of the service provided by product Qi and thus utility. For example, the total amount of fat or sugar can positively impact the taste service of product Qi but negatively impact nutritional or health services (Stanley and Tschirhart, 1991). Consumers maximize their total utility subject to their total available budget I, where I = ∑PiQi and Pi is the price of product Qi. Given increasing marginal costs of providing an increasing number of zn quality characteristics in order to deliver an increasing number of services sm, the expected marginal revenue of providing Qi also increases in order to ensure optimal production levels (Rosen, 1974). In other words, the supply-side hedonic price model determines variance in Pi across varying design specifications of Qi where Pi is expected to be an increasing function of the total number of services sm provided by Qi. Also, as noted above, through their market intelligence gathering activities food and beverage manufacturers recognize that the amount of each quality characteristic zn can positively or negatively impact the amount of consumer valued service sm provided by product Qi. Revealed pricing strategies should account for this. Thus, it is expected that the amount of each zn included in design specification Qi is some nonlinear function of the producer’s offer price Pi. Given this theoretical background, a manufacturer’s willingness to charge function can be constructed. Derived from the utility maximization first order condition, it can be determined that Pi is a function of the number of quality characteristics possessed by product Qi and is the sum of the marginal implicit prices (MIP) of all zn quality characteristics (Huang and Lin, 2007). In functional form, we can describe Pi as 7 (3) Pi = ∑ Pn ( z n ) where Pn ( z n ) is the MIP of the amount of zn quality characteristic possessed by Qi. Previous hedonic price applications have debated the correct functional form of the price-quality characteristic function. A simple linear combination model of the number of quality attributes possessed by the product can be used, but this specification ignores the impact of nonlinearities of quality interactions. Generalized linear models which allow for the sample data to determine the correct functional form through the application of Box-Cox transformations have been developed by Estes (1986) who explored the implicit prices of green pepper quality attributes, by Bowman and Ethridge (1992) in their study of US cotton fibers and by Stanley and Tschirhart (1991) in one of the few applications of the hedonic pricing model to multi-ingredient food (cereal) products. Often, Box-Cox applications determine that either a semi-log or double log linear model performs better than simple linear specifications (Estes, 1986). Rosen (1974) theoretically shows that the price of a given good is a nonlinear function of the product’s quality attributes. Thus, a practical specification for exploring willingness to charge is to assume that the offer price per serving, PPS, of product Qi is an exponential function of the number of quality characteristics bundled into Qi or, A (4) PPS = α ∏ e a =1 β 0 a + β1 a z a B ∏e β 0 b + β1b z b + β 2 b z b2 b =1 where A+B = N are the number of quality characteristics, za are the quality characteristics that are expected to exponentially impact price per serving and zb are quality characteristics that are expected to impact price per serving over different ranges of zb. The practically of using this specification stems from its relative ease of estimation using OLS, straightforward calculations of the MIP per serving for each included quality attribute and its 8 ability to test hypotheses about the a priori relationships between price per serving and each of the quality attributes. Recent hedonic pricing research has employed similar log-linear approaches including San Martin, Troncoso and Brummer’s (2008) study of the determinants of Argentinean wine prices exported to the US and Huang and Lin’s (2007) analysis of organic tomato prices across regional markets. Taking the natural log of both sides of (4) converts the equation to a log-linear form and reveals its relative ease of estimating the quality attribute coefficients: A (5) B ln PPS = φ + ∑ β1a z a + ∑ β1b zb + ∑ β 2b zb2 a =1 A where B b =1 B φ = ln α + ∑ β0 a + ∑ β 0b a =1 b =1 is a constant. Note that this model does not assume a b=1 constant MIP over the full range of quality attribute zn rather the estimated quality attribute coefficients have a useful interpretation where β1a indicates the percent change in price per serving given a one unit increase za and β1b + 2∑β2b (the partial derivative of lnPPS with respect to zb) indicates the percent change in price per serving given a one unit increase zb (Studenmund, 2006). Following this logic, we can calculate the average MIP per serving of each quality attribute za and the average MIP per serving of each quality attribute zb, respectively, using the following equations: (6) PPS a ( z a ) = PPS * β1a (7) PPS b ( z b ) = PPS * ( β1b + 2β 2b ) . Data Description Data on new cereal and salty snack products comes from Mintel’s Global New Product Database (www.gnpd.com). The database contains food product label information for most new product lines released in the US. Along with product name, company and brand information, each observation contains retail recommended prices, nutritional facts, quality claims and category. For each of the observed food categories, a complete sample (in terms of price and a list of nutrition information) of new products were identified and investigated. The data used covers 9 cereal and salty snack product innovations in the database, released between January 1, 2000 and July 31, 2006 and includes a total of 564 cereal products and 962 salty snack products. Mintel’s GNPD database contains information about the type and quantity of value-adding product positioning claims for each innovation, including the use of nutritional, organic and other promotional claims such as structure-function claims. Also for each innovation, a product description including health claims is reported. For the purposes of this study, all of these claims were expected to exponentially impact price per serving. NUTC is defined as the number of nutrition claims used by each product line; HC is a binary variable indicating if the innovation makes a health claim as described in the product description field. A search function was developed that queried strings of words that describe specific health condition risk reductions, such as heart disease, cancers and hypertension. Observations that claimed a health condition risk reduction were coded as a health claim. The number of all other value-added differentiating claims, OPC, was also included in both models. This variable is expected to positively impact the price per serving. Tables 1 and 2 present summary statistics for the variables used in this investigation. The average price per serving PPS for a typical cereal product, whether it is of the cold or hot variety, is nearly $0.40, and ranges from as low as $0.04 to $4.79. Ranging as low as $0.01 to $9.99 per serving, salty snack products are on average $0.48 per serving. The number of servings per package, SERV, and each of the nutrients are quality characteristics that are expected to exponentially impact price per serving over a given range. These impacts are likely to be independent. SERV is expected to negatively impact price per serving at a decreasing rate. Other per serving nonlinear variables included in the model are the number of calories, KAL; total fat content in grams, FAT; total carbohydrates in grams, CARB; total protein content in grams, PROT; total cholesterol in milligrams, CHOL; total sodium content in milligrams, SOD; total sugars in grams, SUG, and total dietary fiber content in grams, FIB. Also expected to have a nonlinear relationship with the price per serving is the average vitamin and mineral density per serving, VITM, as measured by the average daily value of the four primary micronutrients (vitamin A, vitamin C, calcium and iron). Due to expected nonlinearities, each of these 10 independent variables is included as are the square of each variable. Each product innovation observation also indicates whether it is an organic product or not (ORG=1 if product makes an organic claim and zero otherwise). This study explores whether suppliers are willing to charge more for an organic quality claim. The marginal change in the premium charged by a firm for a particular positive nutrition quality attribute should be positive when it is used in conjunction with an organic claim. Also, the marginal change in the premium charged by a firm for a particular location association claim is expected to be positive when it is used in conjunction with an organic claim. However, bounded rationality (information overload due to crowded product labels and busy shoppers) may confound a simple linear relationship. Nearly 11% of cereal products make an organic claim but only 3% of salty snacks. Among those innovations that did bear the organic claim, the set of NOP seal qualified products, ORGB, were identified in a previous food label analysis which either confirmed or did not confirm the observed product line’s possession of the NOP seal (i.e., a minimal 95% organic content, and launch post-October 2002 – see Atalay, Shanahan and Hooker, 2006). Firms have the option to use place names in association with their product offerings if they believe a “local” claim has value. A search function for US state names was developed to determine the existence of location association claims, LAC, in each observation. A binary variable was developed to code whether the innovation uses such a claim in the marketing mix (i.e.: brand, company, or product name). As shown in Tables 1 and 2, the means of the LAC variables suggest less than one percent of cereal and 2 percent of salty snacks have such claims. In order to determine whether brand type impacts the price per serving of innovations, a binary measure indicating whether the product is a private brand or not was developed (PL = 1 when the brand is privately owned by the retailer, zero otherwise). Twenty eight percent of new cereal products and 18% of salty snacks carry privately-owned labels. GNPD indicates the degree of innovation type of each observation. 2 It is hypothesized that firms with new-to-the world products and new varieties of food products follow a price penetration strategy in order to 2 Innovations are exclusively coded as “new-to-the-world product, new variety of an already existing product, new packaging or new formulation of an already existing product line.” 11 establish their respective products. For the purposes of this study, new-to the-world products and new varieties, NEW, are coded as one, zero otherwise. If penetration pricing is more frequently used this variable is expected to have a negative impact on the price per serving of a given cereal or salty snack product. In order to control for inter-category variance in price per serving, a binary dummy variable, SC, indicates a cold (SC = 1) or hot (SC = 0) cereal. Results Tables 3 and 4 report results of the two hedonic models. The overall fit of the two models is relatively strong, adjusted R2s for the cereal and salty snack hedonic models are 0.71 and 0.47, respectively. The F statistics suggest that the likelihood of all of the included variables equaling zero are significantly below 1 percent. In terms of the statistical significance of the variables across the food categories, salty snack prices appear to be most responsive in terms of the quality attributes compared to cereal prices. Specifically, the cereal model has only 8 out of 31 variables statistically significant at a level of 95% or better, which is indicative of the lower levels of variance in price per serving within the cereal category relative to the snacks category and the lower variance in nutritional content across cereals (Stanley and Tschirhart, 1991). The following discussion investigates the calculated MIPs for a selected set of quality attributes across both models, suggesting implications for food manufacturers and retailers. Tables 3 and 4 also report the average MIP per serving for each quality attribute. The average MIP per serving of a cereal and salty snack product decreases by $0.068 and $0.043, respectively, per one serving increase. This is consistent with the discussion that firms charge lower per serving prices for bulk or larger package sizes due to the application of second degree price discrimination. However, the impact is nonlinear and eventually bottoms out with an increased number of servings as indicated by the statistically significant positive sign on the square of servings per package. See Figure 1 for the calculated price per serving for a reference cereal and salty snack product as the number of servings per product increases. We anticipated that the nutritional content would impact price per serving over given ranges of content levels. Many of the expected nonlinear relationships were found to be statistically significant in both models. However, a priori expectations of the direction of these impacts were 12 not obvious - certain nutrients may positively impact one service and negatively impact another. These patterns may differ across cereals and salty snacks. For example, the average MIP for a one gram increase in total fat was $0.005 per serving of a salty snack product. However, the negative sign on the squared total fat variable indicates that the MIP is diminishing. This may suggest that fat initially enters positively into the taste service of a given product, but negatively into the nutritional benefit service after a particular taste service threshold is surpassed. Cereal price per serving for fat increases at a increasing rate ($0.004 average MIP), which may suggest total fat’s importance in providing taste service in cereal products, but the calculated coefficients in the model were not statistically significant. See Figure 2 for the calculated price per serving for a reference cereal and salty snack product as the grams of total fat per product increases. The same may be said of sodium content in cereal products where the average MIP is $0.001 given a one milligram increase in sodium, but this is expected to diminish with additional sodium. However, this affect is not the same among salty snack products where the average MIP is $0.000 per serving given a one milligram increase in sodium. Among salty snack product nutrients, protein content has the largest positive average MIP of $0.061. This suggests that salty snacks that offer products with high protein content can earn a significant premium. Among cereal nutrients, cholesterol content has the largest positive average MIP of $0.074. This may imply cholesterol content has an important role in a non-nutrient service initially, but this affect diminishes as indicated by the negative sign on the squared cholesterol variable. Average vitamin and mineral content (average percent of daily value) has an unexpected negative average MIP of -$0.185 in the cereal category. The sign on the vitamin and mineral variable may be due to the aggregation approach used to code the data. This result requires further study to determine if increased average vitamin and mineral content negatively impacts the offer price due to other non-nutrient services. The average vitamin and mineral content does positively enter into PPS initially among salty snack products. Sugar content impacts the PPS in a similar manner. In the cereal category, the calculated average MIP is a negative $0.002 compared to positive $0.006 in the salty snack categories. 13 The average MIP per serving for an additional nutritional claim, NUTR, for cereal and salty snack products is $0.003 and -$0.009, respectively. In both models, the estimated parameters are not statistically significant at a 90% level of confidence. The same can be said for the impact of using an additional health claim HC on a cereal and salty snack product where the (statistically insignificant) average MIPs are calculated at -$0.012 and -$0.180, respectively. Further, the use of a location association claim produces insignificant estimated coefficients with calculated MIPs per serving for cereal and salty snack products of $0.001 and $0.030, respectively, likely due to low frequency of actual use. The average MIP for the use of other promotional claims on salty snack products is statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence and is $0.053 per serving. However, the opposite impact occurs within the cereal model where the estimated coefficient is negative and the calculated average MIP of -$0.008 (significant only at an 80% level of confidence). This suggests that additional nutritional differentiating effort among cereal producers has minimal impact on price per serving variance. This may occur because the absolute amount of differentiating effort is already high among cereal products relative to salty snacks (The mean of OPC = 1 for cereal compared to 0.21 for salty snacks). As expected, the average MIP for an organic claim, ORG, on a cereal product is positive $0.038 per serving, but is only statistically significant at an 80% level of confidence. The average MIP per serving of salty snack products is $0.073 at a 90% level of confidence. Thus, there is a positive offer premium for the use of an organic claim. For organic products launched after October 2002 and qualifying for USDA’s organic seal, which substantiates the organic claim and requires at least 95% organic ingredients. In both models, the estimated coefficients describing whether the product line bears the NOP seal, ORGB, were positive but neither is statistically significant. In addition, the organic and nutritional claim interactive terms had unexpected, yet generally statistically insignificant, negative coefficients in both product models. This may imply that marketers may not want to use both organic and nutritional content claims because they perceive these claims to be redundant or even as a source of product label noise. More work is necessary to explore this phenomenon. 14 The impact of brand type on the price per serving was as expected, cereal private brands are on average $0.118 per serving less expensive relative to other brands and retail-owned salty snack innovations are less expensive by an average of $0.133 per serving. These parameters are statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence level in both models. The relative level of innovation contained in the product has the expected negative relational signs. Negative average MIPs support the use of penetration pricing strategies for new cereals and salty snacks. However, the statistical significance varies across the two food categories. The relative newness of a cereal product is not statistically significant but it is statistically significant at a 95% level for new salty snack products. Based on these results, firms are willing to offer appreciable discounts to consumers buying private label products and highly innovative product offers. Conclusion The objective of this study was to develop a pricing model that took into account variance in quality attributes delivered by cereal and salty snack innovations. This study is timely, providing an assessment of emerging food label claims available to food manufacturers and retailers. Recognizing that firms coexist in a heterogeneous market where each firm varies in the type and level of value-added activities and that each activity creates a quality attribute that fulfills a consumer need, pricing based on value deliverables is critical to the market success of a given product line. Consumers are willing to pay for value and firms that differentiate in accordance to consumer demand will create a competitive advantage. It was shown that the relationship between price and individual quality attributes may not simply be linear. The nonlinearities identified in these pricing models among cereal and salty snack innovations can in turn be associated to the pricing strategies of firms interested in releasing new product lines into these markets. For example, using this model based on all firms’ expected consumer demand for each quality attribute, optimal prices per serving can be developed given the particular design specification of a new product using a simple linear programming procedure. It was shown that second-degree price discrimination is a common practice among the observed firms. Further, private labels more often use discounts in their pricing strategies. Also, firms 15 releasing new-to-the-world products and new varieties of already existing product lines are more apt to offer a lower price per serving in order to establish their respective product lines. On the other end of the spectrum, firms that offer specialty product lines, such as organic alternatives, are more wiling to charge a premium for the added specialty. Also, offer prices rise when firms use increasing numbers of differentiating claims. However, the impact of “promotional noise” may dampen these effects – demonstrated well by the cereal hedonic model. Firms’ efforts to control for these events are essential to ensure a final selling price close to the optimal price for a given innovation. The hedonic pricing model has once again been proven to be a successfully pragmatic model specification well suited to describe the relationship between the offer price of a product and its set of product and quality characteristics. However, future work should incorporate quantitative data on consumer behavior. This study is based on the firm’s expectation of consumer demand and the particular revelation of the (initial) pricing strategy (the offer price or manufacturers’ recommended selling price). Retailer or home scanner data are candidates for strengthening this analysis. Such data might also allow for a (product or category) life-cycle analysis. Retail sales data can yield consumer willingness to pay measures for the organic identity quality attribute, nutritional, health claims, other quality attributes explored in study and more. Comparative statistics describing product adoption conditions and the market shares of firms using each of the quality attributes can lend further insight into the use-value of each of the claims on processed food products. Demand elasticities can be determined and integrated into an individual firm’s pricing strategy. Few firms have access to such rich product attribute information and those firms that do possess this information consider it to be a competitive advantage. The primary objective of future work should focus on working through the above limiting issues, bridging the factors that induce consumer demand for product innovations and the firms' derived demand for process and product innovation. This will promote a better understanding of the function of market transactions between innovation buyers and innovation sellers. 16 References Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), 2000. National Organic Program: Final Rule with Request for Comments (7 CFR Part 205). National Organic Program, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. Atalay, Tekle, Neal H. Hooker and Christopher Shanahan. 2007 Exploring Location Association and Other Quality Indicators on Canadian Foods. Paper presented at NECC 63 meering. Vancouver, BC September 27-28. U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). 1999. 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Maximum Minimum Price per serving PPS ($) $0.40 $0.47 $4.79 $0.04 Number of servings per package SERV 10.861 5.23 46 1 Calories KAL (Kcal) 146.253 46.17 300 10 Total fat FAT (g) 1.997 1.93 15 0 Carbohydrates CARB (g) 30.037 8.87 60 0 Protein PROT (g) 3.870 3.07 26 1 Cholesterol CHOL (mg) 0.021 0.43 10 0 Sodium SOD (mg) 157.156 84.89 440 0 Sugars SUG (g) 10.373 5.16 22 0 Dietary fiber FIB (g) 3.160 2.88 25 0 Average percent daily value (vitamin A, C, calcium and iron) VITM (%) 0.138 0.12 1.61 0.00 Number of nutrition marketing claims NUTC 0.904 1.08 5 0 Presence of health claim (1=yes) HC 0.048 -- 1 0 Number of other product positioning claims OPC 1.000 0.95 5 0 Presence of organic claim (1=yes) ORG 0.108 -- 1 0 Presence of USDA organic seal (organic content 95%+) (1=yes) ORGB 0.067 -- 1 0 Private label product (1=yes) PL 0.282 -- 1 0 Degree of product innovation (1=”new”) NEW 0.739 -- 1 0 Presence of a location association claim (1=yes) LAC 0.009 -- 1 0 Hot or cold cereal (0=hot; 1=cold) SC 0.807 -- 1 0 Nutrition information (per serving) Measurement 20 Table 2: Salty Snacks Data Description n = 962 Observations Variable Mean Std. Dev. Maximum Minimum Price per serving PPS ($) $0.48 $0.80 $9.99 $0.01 Number of servings per package SERV 8.49 6.78 90 1 Calories KAL (Kcal) 141.937 40.89 510 5 Total fat FAT (g) 7.06 4.01 45 0 Carbohydrates CARB (g) 17.46 5.55 57 1 Protein PROT (g) 2.81 2.15 19 0 Cholesterol CHOL (mg) 1.11 4.07 50 0 Sodium SOD (mg) 230.10 137.93 1430 0 Sugars SUG (g) 2.11 3.86 26 0 Dietary fiber FIB (g) 1.49 1.35 11 0 Average percent daily value (vitamin A, C, calcium and iron) VITM (%) 0.06 0.89 0.26 0 Number of nutrition marketing claims NUTC 0.44 0.78 5 0 Presence of health claim (1=yes) HC 0.00 -- 1 0 Number of other product positioning claims OPC 0.21 0.45 3 0 Presence of organic claim (1=yes) ORG 0.07 -- 1 0 Presence of USDA organic seal (organic content 95%+) (1=yes) ORGB 0.02 -- 1 0 Private label product (1=yes) PL 0.18 -- 1 0 Degree of product innovation (1=”new”) NEW 0.84 -- 1 0 Presence of a location association claim (1=yes) LAC 0.02 -- 1 0 Nutrition information (per serving) Measurement 21 Table 3: Cereal Hedonic Pricing Model Results Variable Coefficient 0.8105 Constant -0.1780 SERV 0.0031 SERV2 0.0038 KAL 0.0000 KAL2 0.0082 FAT 2 0.0015 FAT -0.0532 CARB 0.0008 CARB2 0.0005 SOD -0.0014 SOD2 0.0085 PROT 2 -0.0005 PROT -0.0081 FIB 0.0004 FIB2 0.0758 VITM -0.2716 VITM2 -0.0059 SUG 2 0.0000 SUG 0.2359 CHOL -0.0239 CHOL2 0.0076 NUTC -0.0303 HC -0.0203 OPC 0.0948 ORG 0.0619 ORGB -0.2977 PL -0.0092 NEW 0.0243 LAC -0.0145 ORG*NUTC -0.1079 ORG*LAC -0.0160 SC Adjusted R-squared Sum squared residuals F-statistic Prob (F-statistic) t-Stat SIG 3.94 -20.70 13.56 1.69 -1.35 0.33 0.52 -4.29 3.98 2.39 -2.39 0.41 -0.50 -0.45 0.39 0.24 -0.50 -0.51 -0.01 1.02 -1.02 0.46 -0.41 -1.22 0.95 0.62 -8.11 -0.24 0.12 -0.35 -0.32 -0.33 -*** *** *** ** MIP PPS --$0.0679 -$0.0015 -$0.0044 --$0.0204 --$0.0009 -$0.0030 --$0.0029 --$0.1849 --$0.0023 -$0.0744 -$0.0030 -$0.0120 -$0.0080 $0.0375 $0.0245 -$0.1177 -$0.0036 $0.0096 -$0.0057 -$0.0427 -$0.0063 *** *** *** *** * * * * *** 22 MIP PPS = 1 --$0.1718 -$0.0038 -$0.0112 --$0.0516 --$0.0023 -$0.0075 --$0.0073 --$0.4674 --$0.0059 -$0.1881 -$0.0076 -$0.0303 -$0.0203 $0.0948 $0.0619 -$0.2977 -$0.0092 $0.0243 -$0.0145 -$0.1079 -$0.0160 0.705 66.36 44.05 0.00 Table 4: Salty Snack Hedonic Pricing Model Results Variable Coefficient -0.5241 Constant -0.0913 SERV 0.0009 SERV2 -0.0049 KAL 0.0000 KAL2 0.0104 FAT 2 -0.0005 FAT 0.0137 CARB -0.0003 CARB2 -0.0003 SOD -0.0002 SOD2 0.1366 PROT 2 -0.0044 PROT 0.0061 FIB 0.0051 FIB2 0.0108 VITM -0.0003 VITM2 0.0410 SUG 2 -0.0017 SUG 0.0049 CHOL 0.0003 CHOL2 -0.0194 NUTC -0.3747 HC 0.1044 OPC 0.1517 ORG 0.0272 ORGB -0.2764 PL -0.1117 NEW 0.0622 LAC -0.1299 ORG*NUTC 0.1713 ORG*LAC Adjusted R-squared Sum squared residuals F-statistic Prob (F-statistic) t-Stat -2.93 -17.80 9.48 -2.40 3.19 0.63 -1.01 1.07 -1.10 -0.88 -0.43 4.76 -2.11 0.19 1.24 0.76 -0.45 2.66 -1.85 0.48 1.25 -0.81 -0.67 2.55 1.57 0.17 -5.71 -2.20 0.44 -1.35 0.40 MIP PPS --$0.0430 --$0.0024 -$0.0045 -$0.0063 --$0.0003 -$0.0613 -$0.0078 -$0.0049 -$0.0180 -$0.0026 --$0.0093 -$0.1799 $0.0501 $0.0728 $0.0131 -$0.1327 -$0.0536 $0.0299 -$0.0624 $0.0822 SIG -*** *** *** *** * * * *** *** * *** *** * *** ** *** *** ** 23 MIP PPS = 1 --$0.0895 --$0.0049 -$0.0094 -$0.0131 --$0.0007 -$0.1278 -$0.0163 -$0.0102 -$0.0376 -$0.0055 --$0.0194 -$0.3747 $0.1044 $0.1517 $0.0272 -$0.2764 -$0.1117 $0.0622 -$0.1299 $0.1713 0.471 287.12 2.57 0.00 Figure 1: Calculated Price per Serving by Number of Servings for a Reference Cereal and Salty Snack Product Price Per Serving and Number of Servings 1.6 Price $ per Serving 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 Cereal 0.6 Snacks 0.4 0.2 0 0 2 4 6 8 Servings 24 10 12 14 Figure 2: Calculated Price per Serving by Fat Content for a Reference Cereal and Salty Snack Product Price Per Serving and Fat Content Price $ per Serving 0.6 0.5 Cereal 0.4 0.3 Snacks 0.2 0.1 0 2 4 6 8 Fat (g) 25 10 12 14