Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund 12th Annual Participating Insurers Workshop May 15-16, 2012 Orlando, Florida Opening Comments & Introductions Jack Nicholson, Chief Operating Officer, Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Hurricane Andrew 2 Agenda May 16, 2012 9:00 Welcome 9:05 How Does the Claims Process Work Today Given Current Technology? 9:30 Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Update 9:50 2012 FHCF Premium Formula: Rates, Retention Multiples, and Payout Multiples 10:30 BREAK 10:45 2012 Reimbursement Contract and Data Call Changes 10:55 Reporting Issues 11:30 Closing Remarks 3 How Does the Claims Process Work Today Given Current Technology? 4 Hurricane Earl Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Update Leonard Schulte, Director of Legal Analysis and Risk Evaluation, FHCF 5 Hurricane Earl Key Data: Coverage and Retention for the 2012 Contract Year $17 billion aggregate coverage limit for mandatory coverage $4 billion aggregate limit of available TICL coverage, with approximately $317 million of TICL coverage actually purchased Maximum FHCF liability: $17.317 billion (projected) No “LAC coverage” below the industry retention Aggregate industry retention: $7.389 billion (projected) 6 Key Data: Premium for the 2012 Contract Year Total projected premium: Statutory “cash build-up factor” is now at 20% Was 15% for the 2011 contract year Will rise to 25% for 2013 (the last year of the phase-in) Aggregate rate change for 2012 over 2011 is 14.79% Mandatory coverage: $1.314 billion TICL: $47 million Total: $1.361 billion 10.01% before application of the cash build-up factor Year-end projected cash balance: $8.56 billion 7 Return Times and Loss Probabilities 8.7 years, 11.5% probability to reach industry retention of $7.4 billion 19.1 years, 5.24% probability to exhaust the cash balance of $8.6 billion 33.8 years, 2.96% probability to reach the mandatory coverage limit of $17 billion $16.5 billion ground-up loss $25.4 billion ground-up loss 42.6 years, 2.35% probability to reach the theoretical TICL limit of $4 billion $29.6 billion ground-up loss 8 2012/2013 Initial Season Projection Based on Data Available as of May 2012 ESTIMATED TOTAL COVERAGE SELECTED: $17.317 billion 42.6 Years – 2.35% $29.6B $3.863B Available TICL Coverage Not Selected 33.8 Years – 2.96% $0.033B $17B Mandatory Coverage Limit (Includes loss reimbursement and the 5% allowance for loss adjustment expenses) Bonding potential: $8.757B Pre-event financing: ? $8.560B Projected 2012 Year-End Cash Balance Mandatory Coverage $16.5B $1.816B Industry Co-Payments 8.7 Years – 11.5% $0.317B TICL Coverage Selected $25.4B Return Times, Probabilities, & Ground-Up Losses 19.1 Years – 5.24% Not Drawn to Scale Not Official For Illustrative Purposes Only $7.389B $7.389B Industry Retention 9 2012 FHCF Premium Formula: Rates, Retention Multiples, and Payout Multiples Andy Rapoport, Managing Director and Actuary, Paragon 10 FHCF Ratemaking Overview What’s New? Balance: Funds Needed vs. Funds Sources Ratemaking Process Summary of Premium & Rate Changes 12 What’s New? 20% Cash Build-Up Factor included in rates Quintuple TICL Premium 4x in 2011 TICL Limit reduced to $4 billion 15% in 2011 $6 billion in 2011 Investment rate assumption reduced from 1.5% to 0.0% Pre-event notes expire 10/15/2012 13 Balance: Where Does the FHCF Get Its Funds? Where Do They Go? Loss & Investment Income Financial Post event Assessments Products Premium Operating Expense Mitigation Funding Loss Expense (5%) Balance Premiums are derived from the Ratemaking Formula Page 14 Balance: 2004 & 2005 Hurricane Payments Premium and Investment Income 73% Bonds 27% 15 Balance: What does the FHCF Premium Pay For? Expenses 2% Mitigation 0% Losses & LAE 98% 16 Ratemaking Process: Overview of Steps Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Determine FHCF Coverage Trend Exposure Data Simulate FHCF Hurricane Losses Step 5 Mandatory FHCF Premium Step 4 Load Losses for Loss Expenses, Operating Expenses, Mitigation & Adjust for Investment Income 17 Ratemaking Process: Overview of Steps Step 5 Mandatory FHCF Premium Step 6 Allocate Premium to: Type of Business, Deductible, Territory, Construction Divide by Exposure Recommended Rates 18 Ratemaking Process: Step 1 – Industry Mandatory FHCF Coverage Limit Set by CS for SB 1460 at $17 billion until there are sufficient resources for two seasons, limited to annual growth in the cash balance Industry Retention Based on growth in reported exposures, projected to be $7.389 billion for current Contract Year 19 Ratemaking Process: Step 1 – Industry FHCF Coverage ($B) Retention Mandatory TICL Limit 2005 4.667 15.000 0.000 2006 5.627 15.000 0.000 2007 5.785 15.845 12.000 2008 6.377 16.530 12.000 2009 7.204 17.175 10.000 2010 6.881 17.000 8.000 2011 7.143 17.000 6.000 2010 2011 Proj. 2012 7.389 17.000 4.000 FHCF Coverage $40 $35 TICL Limit Mandatory Limit $30 Billlions Retention $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Proj. 2012 20 Temporary Increase in Coverage Limit (TICL) Return Time Return Time 40.9 yrs FHCF + $4B TICL $26.295B 32.6 yrs $30.744B FHCF 8.7 yrs $7.389B 8.7 yrs $7.389B Mandatory FHCF Coverage Mandatory Coverage Plus $4 Billion TICL Option 89.917% of $18.905B xs $7.389B 89.917% of $23.355B xs $7.389B 21 Ratemaking Process: Step 1 – Industry Traditional FHCF Coverage 2012 Exposure Distribution 0.9% 4.0% 1.6% 9.6% Residential Exposure Drives FHCF Totals Residential Tenants Condominium 83.9% Mobile Home Commercial Habitational 22 Ratemaking Process: Step 1 – Company FHCF Coverage FHCF Premium Payout Multiple Retention Multiple Used to Calculate Individual Company’s FHCF Coverage 23 Ratemaking Process: Step 1 – Company FHCF Coverage FHCF Industry Coverage: $17.000B xs $7.389B Retention drops to 33% on 3rd largest event Company Limit = FHCF Premium x Payout Multiple i.e., $100M x 12.9351 FHCF Coverage at 90% Level Company Retention = FHCF Premium x Retention Multiple i.e., $100M x 5.6170 24 Ratemaking Process: Step 2 – Trend Exposure Data Type of Business Commercial Residential Mobile Home Tenants Condominium Unit Owners Total Assumed Trends 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sent to Catastrophe Modelers Projected 2011 Exposure ($B) 203.68 1,777.12 33.77 18.72 84.61 2,117.90 25 Ratemaking Process: Step 2 – Trend Exposure Data 5 Accepted Hurricane Models AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) Applied Research Associates (ARA) EQECAT (EQE) Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPM) Risk Management Solutions (RMS) New in 2008 26 Ratemaking Process: Step 3 – Simulate FHCF Hurricane Losses (Modeling Overview) The Hurricane Model Stochastic Event Set (the storms) Vulnerabilities (damage functions) Financial Model (convert to insured losses) Insurance Exposure Information Model Output (AALs, PMLs) 27 Modeled Events Require Many Parameters Storm Landfall Frequency Track Minimum Central Pressure Radius to Maximum Winds Parameters are correlated, but not perfectly so 28 04 ) Hazard: Hurricane Tracks (2 0 19 E( 85 ) ) RLEY Tallahassee ) Tallahassee (2004 )) Pensacola ) Pensacola Jacksonville Jacksonville ) L (1 OP A Ocala )) Ocala (1 ERI N ) (199 5 Deltona ) Deltona ) Orlando ) Orlando Lakeland ) Lakeland IS NN DE E EL NA 5 98 Sarasota ) Sarasota (20 ) KA TR I NA ( 20 ) RG ES 05) AND (1 99 8 REW (1992 ) ) Palm Palm Bay Bay ) West West Palm Palm Beach Beach ) 05 GE O (1999) 995 Gainesville ) Gainesville FLOYD FRANCES (2004) Irene (1999) )) Panam Panamaa City City CHA IV A N T KA JEANNE (2004) Naples )) Naples ILM W A (20 ) 05 Miam Miamii ) 29 Damage: Data Required Policy Structure Limits by coverages Deductibles Individual Risk Characteristics Type of Business ZIP Code Construction 30 Sources of Damage Wind Projectiles Roof tiles Gravel from tops of buildings Wind-driven rain Falling trees Storm surge 31 Damage: Calculation Damage Roof Covering Roof Decking Roof Framing Roof-Wall Connection Lateral Bracing Opening in Structure Cladding of Structure Frame-Foundation Connection Foundation Failure Structure Loss Determined by Hazard and Policy Data Wind Speed 32 Modeling Results $ in billions 33 Gross Losses Gross Single Event Severity Distribution (100% Coverage, no LAE) $60 $55 TICL FHCF $50 $45 $40 Loss ($B) $35 $30 $25 2012 $20 2011 2010 $15 $10 $5 $0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Return Time (Years) 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 34 Ratemaking Process: Step 4 – Loadings Post-Model Adjustments +$51.1 million Operating Expenses +$7.8 million 2007A Notes Expense +$14.2 million Investment Income Credit -$0.0 million Mitigation Funding $0 million (Now paid out of investments) 20% Cash Build-Up Factor +$219.0 million 35 Post-Model Adjustments & Operating Expenses Post-Model Adjustments Used to account for special insurance coverages and other factors not projected by models 2012 Selection 5% or $51.1 million Operating Expenses Day to day costs of FHCF 2012 Selection $7.8 million 36 2007A Notes Expense Additional expense incurred in 2007 to increase liquidity (cash) for the FHCF Difference between interest payments to note holders and investment income on note proceeds Lost investment income Expires 10/15/2012 2012 Charge $14.2 million 37 Investment Income Credit FHCF generally holds funds several years before payout Historically, investment income reduced the premium required 2012 Investment Income Credit = $0.0 million Interest Rate Assumption Return Time Investment Credit 2008 Rating Year 3.50% 4 yrs 11.04% 2009 Rating Year 3.00% 4 yrs 8.40% 2010 Rating Year 2.50% 4 yrs 7.38% 2011 Rating Year 1.50% 4 yrs 4.48% 2012 Rating Year 0.00% 4 yrs 0.00% 38 Mitigation Funding Rates produced assuming all mitigation paid from investment income No Charge to premium Funding can range from $10 million to 35% of prior year’s investment income 39 Cash Build-Up Factor The passage of CS/CS/CS/HB 1495 in 2009 by the Florida Legislature imposed an escalating Cash BuildUp Factor on the mandatory premium Year Cash Build-Up Factor Amount 2009 5% $51.3M 2010 10% $101.0M 2011 15% $154.1M 2012 20% $219.0M 2013 25% 40 Ratemaking Process: Step 5 – Overall FHCF Premium FHCF TICL ($4B) FHCF + TICL 2011 Premium (Actual) $1,145M $90M $1,235M 2012 Premium (Projected) $1,314M $47M $1,361M % Change +14.8% -47.8% +10.2% Notes: FHCF premiums include Cash Build-Up Factor (15% for 2011, 20% for 2012) TICL premiums include TICL Factor (4x for 2011, 5x for 2012) 41 Ratemaking Process: Step 6 – Allocating Loss Proposed 2012 Rating Territories 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Not Rated 2012 Rating Regions 32 Ratemaking Process: Step 6 – Allocating Loss 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Tenants Mobile Home 50% Condominium-Owners 40% Commercial Residential 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Exposure Terr 1-5 (40%) Terr 6-10 Terr 11-15 Terr 16-20 Terr 21-25 Modeled (22%) (24%) (9%) (5%) Loss 43 Recap of Ratemaking Steps Step 1 Determine FHCF Coverage Step 5 Mandatory FHCF Premium Step 2 Step 3 Trend Exposure Data Simulate FHCF Hurricane Losses Step 4 Load Losses for Loss Expenses, Operating Expenses, Mitigation & Adjust for Investment Income 44 Recap of Ratemaking Steps Step 5 Mandatory FHCF Premium Step 6 Allocate Premium to: Type of Business, Deductible, Territory, Construction Divide by Exposure Recommended Rates 45 Summary: Overall Mandatory FHCF Premium FHCF Premium ($ Millions) Components of 2012 Mandatory Premium Change (+14.79%) $1,350 $1,300 $1,314.3 $1,250 $1,259.5 $1,200 $1,215.7 $1,150 $1,144.9 $1,100 $1,144.9 $1,050 2011 Premium Adjusted for Adjusted for Adjusted for Adjusted for Exposure Modeled Losses Investment Cash Build Up Growth (0.00%) and Expenses Income (1.5% to Factor (15% to (6.18%) 0.0%) 20%) 46 Summary: Overall Mandatory FHCF Premium Rate Change Component Impact 32% 42% Modeled Losses and Expenses (+6.2%) Investment Income/Mitigation (+3.6%) Statutory Cash Build Up (4.4%) 26% 47 Summary: Overall Indications Rate Changes by Type of Business FHCF Layer (No change to Cash Build-up*) (Per Statute*) Residential Tenants Condominiums Mobile Home Commercial Habitational 9.99% 11.59% 12.03% 1.09% 11.94% 14.77% 16.44% 16.90% 5.49% 16.81% Total Rate Change 10.01% 14.79% Type of Business * Cash Build-up Factor for 2011 was 15%; for 2012 it is 20% 48 Windstorm Mitigation Construction Factors FHCF member companies are required to adjust primary rates for mitigation Hurricane models show significant differentiation in risk for exposures with these features Classifications first used with FHCF rates in 2009 Capped at +/-10% in 2009 Capped at +/-20% in 2010 and 2011 Recommend: Maintain Cap at +/-20% in 2012 Revised rating factors to match Data Call revisions Removed Florida Building Code Removed BCEG 49 Mitigation Construction Factor Relativities 20% cap in 2012 50 Temporary Increase in Coverage Limit (TICL) Multiply published FHCF rates by the premium adjustment factor for the selected TICL limit level 51 FHCF Reserving Contract Years Comparison: FHCF Loss Development FHCF: 2004 and 2005 Losses by Age of Report 6.000 5.000 $ Billions 4.000 3.000 Year 1 2.000 1.000 0.000 2004 2005 53 Contract Years Comparison: FHCF Loss Development FHCF: 2004 and 2005 Losses by Age of Report 6.000 5.000 $ Billions 4.000 Year 2 3.000 Year 1 2.000 1.000 0.000 2004 2005 54 Contract Years Comparison: FHCF Loss Development FHCF: 2004 and 2005 Losses by Age of Report 6.000 5.000 $ Billions 4.000 Year 3 3.000 Year 2 Year 1 2.000 1.000 0.000 2004 2005 55 Contract Years Comparison: FHCF Loss Development FHCF: 2004 and 2005 Losses by Age of Report 6.000 5.000 $ Billions 4.000 Year 4 Year 3 3.000 Year 2 Year 1 2.000 1.000 0.000 2004 2005 56 Contract Years Comparison: FHCF Loss Development FHCF: 2004 and 2005 Losses by Age of Report 6.000 5.000 4.000 $ Billions Year 5 Year 4 3.000 Year 3 Year 2 Year 1 2.000 1.000 0.000 2004 2005 57 Contract Years Comparison: FHCF Loss Development FHCF: 2004 and 2005 Losses by Age of Report 6.000 5.000 4.000 $ Billions Year 6 Year 5 Year 4 3.000 Year 3 Year 2 Year 1 2.000 1.000 0.000 2004 2005 58 Contract Years Comparison: FHCF Loss Development FHCF: 2004 and 2005 Losses by Age of Report 6.000 5.000 4.000 Year 7 $ Billions Year 6 Year 5 3.000 Year 4 Year 3 Year 2 Year 1 2.000 1.000 0.000 2004 2005 59 Contract Years Comparison: FHCF Loss Development FHCF: 2004 and 2005 Losses by Age of Report 6.000 5.000 4.000 Year 8 $ Billions Year 7 Year 6 Year 5 3.000 Year 4 Year 3 Year 2 Year 1 2.000 1.000 0.000 2004 2005 60 Contract Year 2004-2005: FHCF Loss Development FHCF Loss Development 4.500 4.000 3.500 $ Billions 3.000 2.500 2.000 FHCF IBNR Reported Outstanding 1.500 FHCF Paid 1.000 0.500 0.000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 As of 12/31/YY * 61 Contract Year 2005-2006: FHCF Loss Development FHCF Loss Development 6.000 $ Billions 5.000 4.000 3.000 FHCF IBNR 2.000 Reported Outstanding FHCF Paid 1.000 0.000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 As of 12/31/YY * 62 Questions? 63 BREAK Sponsored by: 2012 Reimbursement Contract and Data Call Changes Martin Helgestad, Managing Director, Paragon Kathy Mackenthun, Director, Paragon Gina Wilson, Director of Examinations, FHCF 65 Contract (Article I) Scope of Agreement Clarification that the SBA shall reimburse for Ultimate Net Loss on Covered Policies in force and in effect at the time of the Covered Event causing the loss… 66 Contract (Article X) Commutations Following submission to a panel of three actuaries, the parties are prohibited from providing further information or other communication unless requested by the panel Responses to the panel must be in writing, simultaneously provided to the other party and all members of the panel Panel may require response be provided in a meeting or teleconference attended by both parties and all members of panel 67 Contract (Article XIII) Inspection of Records – Examination Procedures Exposure Exam Clarification that once SBA has accepted a resubmission as a sufficient response to the examiner’s findings, the exam is closed Claims Exam Clarification that once the SBA has accepted a corrected Proof of Loss Report as a sufficient response to the examiner’s findings, the exam is closed 68 Addenda to the Contract Addendum No. 1: Temporary Increase in Coverage Limit Option (TICL) Company’s coverage equals its share of one of four layers of TICL coverage from $1B to $4B TICL premium increased by a factor of 5 (factor of 4 for 2011 Contract Year) 69 Amendment to the Contract Optional Amendment to Change Prior Elections Allows a company to change its elections prior to June 1, 2012 If used, requires re-affirmation of all elections previously made There were no changes to this form 70 Data Call Florida Building Code Indicator (FBCI) Code field eliminated Building Code Effectiveness Grading (BCEG) Code field eliminated Both fields in the record layout are reserved for future use 71 Reporting Issues Martin Helgestad, Managing Director, Paragon Kathy Mackenthun, Director, Paragon Steve Szypula, Manager of Financial Operations, FHCF Marcie Vernon, Senior Examiner Analyst, FHCF Gina Wilson, Director of Examinations, FHCF 72 Construction Code Mappings When is a construction code mapping required to be submitted? When the company’s and the FHCF’s definitions do not match How often should my company submit a mapping for approval? Annually 73 Short Term Rentals Are short term rentals covered by the FHCF? Exclusion defined in Article VI of the FHCF Reimbursement Contract Applies to homes, condominium structures or condominium units What if my company does not know if a unit is a short term rental? How does the FHCF know if a unit is used as a short term rental? Reviewed during FHCF exams 74 Single Structures What is a single structure? How are single structures required to be reported to the FHCF? Predominantly residential – report the entire exposure Predominantly commercial non-residential – report the exposure based on your company’s carve out option in the Reimbursement Contract 75 Single Structures How does the FHCF define predominantly residential versus predominantly commercial non-residential? How does the FHCF know if a structure is predominantly residential or predominantly commercial? 76 Impact of Data Call Resubmissions on Reimbursements Can have a large financial impact Premium increase/decrease Interest charge Hold on reimbursements Five-fold impact on retention at 90% coverage Thirteen-fold impact on FHCF limit 77 Impact of Data Call Resubmissions on Reimbursements Example based on initial Data Call: 90% Coverage Premium = $1 million Retention = $5.617 million Maximum Payout = $12.935 million 78 Calculation of Reimbursement (not considering optional coverage options) Example: Ultimate Net Loss (UNL) = $19.0M 90% Coverage Structure 10% $12,935,100 Maximum FHCF Payout (90% coverage) Retention $5,617,000 Reimbursement Equals: 19,000,000 paid UNL 5,617,000 retention x 90% coverage + 5% LAE Equals: $12,647,000 79 Impact of Data Call Resubmissions on Reimbursements Assume an exposure exam results in a new premium of $900,000 Retention = $5.055 million Maximum Payout = $11.642 million Paid Ultimate Net Loss still $19.0 million 80 The Impact: Original Reimbursement $12,647,000 Recalculated Reimbursement equals $13,178,000; BUT exceeds limit: $11,641,600 Maximum FHCF Payout $12,935,100 Maximum FHCF Payout 10% 10% (90% coverage) (90% coverage) Retention $5,617,000 Retention $5,055,300 Excess Reimbursement Equals: $1,005,400 (prior paid against new maximum coverage) 81 Loss Reporting Changes Since 2005 82 Detailed Claims Listing (DCL) - 2007 Requirement added to include a DCL with the first Proof of Loss Report (POL) that qualifies a company for reimbursement for a specific hurricane Provides a historical baseline File layout and requirements provided in the Loss Reimbursement Examination Advance Preparation Instructions (LAP1) Omitting the DCL could delay reimbursements DCL should be prepared and retained for every POL filing 83 Loss Assessment - 2010 Losses attributable to Loss Assessment contractually excluded from FHCF coverage Legislatively excluded in 2011 Reporting losses attributable to Loss Assessment could result in significant excess reimbursements 84 Proof of Loss Report “as of” Date - 2010 Requirement added to address the age of data reported to the FHCF on quarterly or annual Proof of Loss Reports “As of” date may not be more than 60 days prior to the applicable quarter-end or year-end date Older data could result in delayed reimbursements 85 Policyholder Fees - 2011 Legislation changed the definition of FHCF losses to: Include “amounts paid as fees on behalf of or inuring to the benefit of a policyholder” Specifically exclude amounts paid as: Bad faith awards Punitive damage awards Other court-imposed fines, sanctions, or penalties 86 Claims File Documentation Changes Items to be retained for FHCF on-site loss reporting examinations Numerous additions from 2007 – 2011, such as: First notice of loss Evidence to show loss was direct result of a hurricane All adjuster estimates, including public adjusters if provided to the company Requirements included on the Proof of Loss Report 87 Early Reimbursements (No Change) A company can receive reimbursements prior to the September 1st Data Call deadline, assuming the FHCF has the available liquid assets and the following criteria have been met: The company’s Data Call was submitted in advance of the reimbursement request Paragon has completed its review of the Data Call and any issues have been adequately addressed by the company The company is fully in compliance with all other FHCF requirements 88 Closing Remarks