Baltic Forum for Innovative Technologies for Sustainable Manure Management KNOWLEDGE REPORT Plant Requirement and Zero Balance – Soil P Development under Two P Input Scenarios in Finland By Riitta Lemola, Risto Uusitalo, Minna Sarvi, Kari Ylivainio and Eila Turtola Baltic Manure WP4 Standardisation of Manure Types with Focus on Phosphorus December 2013 Baltic Manure WP4 Standardisation of Manure Types with Focus on Phosphorus Plant requirement and zero balance – soil P development under two P input scenarios in Finland By Riitta Lemola, Risto Uusitalo, Minna Sarvi, Kari Ylivainio and Eila Turtola The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 1 List of Contents 1. Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Material and methods ..................................................................................................................... 3 3. Scenarios of different P use ................................................................................................................. 6 3.1. Whole country ............................................................................................................................. 6 3.2. Coastal regions of the Baltic Sea.................................................................................................... 8 4. Discussion......................................................................................................................................14 5. Literature.......................................................................................................................................16 The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 2 1. Introduction Although agricultural land use in Finland covers only 7% of the total land area, the losses of phosphorus from agriculture are approximately 60% of the anthropogenic phosphorus loading to watercourses (Vuorenmaa et al. 2002). Phosphorus loading comprises of particulate phosphorus (PP) and dissolved phosphorus (DP). While the losses of both phosphorus forms are dependent on soil phosphorus concentration, DP loading is more directly related to it (Uusitalo and Jansson 2002, Uusitalo and Aura 2005, Turtola and Yli-Halla 1998) than PP, which is more dependent on soil erosion. In Finland, agronomic P status in soils (soil test P, STP) has been routinely tested by acid ammonium acetate method (pH 4.65) since the 1950s (Vuorinen and Mäkitie 1955). STP values were more than doubled since 1955 as described by Ylivainio et al. (2014), who compiled data from published summaries of STP analysed in the biggest commercial soil test laboratory during different decades. According to Saarela (2002) the pool of total P in the plough layer of Finnish cultivated mineral soils is about 3000 kg ha-1, about 900 kg ha-1 of which has been accumulated during the last seventy decades. Surplus P (input minus output) peaked in 1970s (26 kg ha-1), and since then it has decreased significantly due to reduced fertilization and increased P outputs in crop yields (Antikainen et al. 2008). In 1995 the average P surplus in Finland was 18.1 kg ha-1 while in 2005-2009 it was decreased to 4.2 kg ha-1 (Salo and Lemola 2010). For farmers who today compete in the market with imported products, the saving and efficient use of fertilizer P is essential. It is also important for the society as a whole, because current economically exploitable P reserves are estimated to deplete in about 60 to 130 years (Steen 1998). In 2009, participation to the Finnish Agri-Environmental Program (FAEP) covered about 90% of the active farms and 92% of the cultivated field area (Aakkula et al. 2010). The Program sets upper limits of P fertilization by crop and soil P status. However, those limits are much higher than should be recommended according to recent studies by Valkama et al. (2011) if attempting to achieve 95% of the maximum yield. While Ylivainio et al. (2014) calculated the need for P fertilization at municipality level and in Centres for Economic Development (ELY Centres) according to the plant P requirement adopted from Valkama et al. (2011), the purpose of the present work was to calculate the required P fertilization and the consequent STP change in 20 years if plants were fertilized according to their P requirement. Calculations were also made with zero-balance scenario in which the fertilization was equivalent to P removed in harvested crop (grazing included) irrespective of STP status. The use and sparing of P fertilizers was also viewed in both scenarios. It shoud be noted, however, that these calculations do not take into account the prices of P and harvested crops, and thus do not indicate the most profitable P use which would in some cases be still lower than in these calculations. 2. Material and methods STP data utilized in calculations was obtained from the project ‘Follow-up study on the impacts of agrienvironmental measures in Finland (MYTVAS 3)’. The data contained STP value, soil texture and organic matter content at the municipality level of 1 008 302 samples analyzed by five commercial soil test laboratories in Finland in 2005-2009. A more detailed description of the data is given by Ylivainio et al. (2014). The municipality-specific STP data was aggregated according to the administrative boundaries of ELY Centres in 2012 (TIKE). Subsequently the data was divided into three groups on the basis of soil texture. The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 3 The groups were clay soils, coarse textured mineral soils (sandy soils and loamy/silty soils) and organic soils. STP values were rounded up to the nearest full number, and the frequencies of each rounded STP value were calculated. Because the data did not include information of field size related to an individual STP value, the frequencies of STP values were converted into cultivated hectares in the following way. The utilized agricultural area (fallow excluded) of the region in 2011 was divided by the number of STP values. The obtained quotient was then multiplied by the frequency of each rounded STP value. Calculations were made for the whole country and the ELY Centres of Southeast Finland (SEF), Uusimaa (UUS), Southwest Finland (SWF) and Ostrobothnia (OSB) which are all situated in the coastal region of the Baltic Sea. SWF has intensive pig and poultry production, and OSB dairy cattle and fur production, while SEF and UUS have mainly cereal production. Biological plant P requirement was evaluated according to Valkama et al. (2011), with the target of 95% of the maximum yield. Then phosphorus fertilization for cereals and grasses was not required if STP was higher than 6, 10, 15 mg l -1 in clay soils, coarse textured mineral soils and organic soils, respectively, because yield responses at higher STP concentrations than these are unlikely (Valkama et al.2011) . In the scenario of zero-balance, P requirement was set equivalent to P removed in harvested crop (Table 1) and thus independent of STP. Yield P removal of cereals and grasses ( kg ha-1) was calculated according to regional yield statistics in 2005–2009 (Yearbook of farm statistics 2006, 2008, 2009) and P concentrations of different plants (MTT 2013). The pasture yield was obtained from farm advisor organization Pro Agria’s livestock monitoring data (personal communication with Sari Peltonen). The utilized agricultural area (fallow excluded) of the regions was assumed to grow only cereals and grasses in the same ratio as those plant groups were grown on the region in 2005-2009. Harvested crop contained an average of 12.2-14.2 kg P ha-1 in 2005-2009 (Table 1). Regionally calculated withdrawals varied according to obtained yields, according to the area of cultivated plant species in the different areas, and according to the different plant P concentrations. Mineral fertilizer and manure P use in the regions and the whole country in 2011 were obtained from MYTVAS 3 project (Salo and Lemola 2010). Table 1. Phosphorus in harvested crop (kg ha-1) in 2005-2009.. Region Finland Southeast Finland (SEF) Uusimaa (UUS) Southwest Finland (SWF) Ostrobothnia (OSB) Harvested P in crop kg ha-1 12.90 12.22 13.09 14.24 13.65 Calculations were made for STP values lower than 500 mg l -1 at interval of five years from the starting years (2005-2009) up to twenty years onward. The yield P removal was assumed to be unchanged throughout the calculations. For the zero-balance scenario, fertilization was independent of STP. In plant P requirement scenario, in turn, fertilization was adjusted at every five-year intervals along with changes in STP. Soil STP values were estimated to change according to the equations developed at MTT (Uusitalo et al. manuscript): The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 4 STPt = -A/B + (A/B + STP 0) exp (Bt) where: A = a + bPbal B = cPbal + d STP t = the STP concentration at time t STP0 =initial STP value Pbal = phosphorus balance (input minus output) a-d = soil type dependent constants In the calculations time (t) is expressed as years, P balance is expressed as the average annual P balance (kg P ha-1 yr-1), and STP carries the unit mg P Ac l -1 of soil, as determined by acidic (pH 4.65) ammonium acetate method of Vuorinen and Mäkitie (1955). The constants a–d are soil type dependant fitting constants, with unique values for the used soil type division: clay soils, coarse textured mineral soils (sandy soils, loamy/silty soils) and organic soils. In the whole country 60% of agricultural soils are coarse textured mineral soils whereas in UUS and SWF regions they are mainly clay soils (Table 2). In SEF and OSB coarse textured mineral soils dominate and in OSB clay soils are in minority. Table 2. Number and share of soil samples in different textural classes in Finland and four regions of the ELY Centres. Region Soil texture Number of samples Finland Clay soils Coarse textured mineral soils Organic soils 273165 605076 130056 Southeast Finland (SEF) Clay soils Coarse textured mineral soils Organic soils 22792 36099 5865 Uusimaa (UUS) Clay soils Coarse textured mineral soils Organic soils 59398 19129 3121 Southwest Finland (SWF) Clay soils Coarse textured mineral soils Organic soils 91902 24243 3771 Ostrobothnia (OSB) Clay soils Coarse textured mineral soils Organic soils 10318 58033 15222 Percentage of samples, % 27 60 13 35 56 9 73 23 4 77 20 3 12 69 18 The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 5 3. Scenarios of different P use 3.1. Whole country The average STP was 13.0 mg l -1 in 2005-2009, and 99% of the STP values were lower than 73 mg l -1. Fertilization scenarios according to P requirement and zero-balance led to clearly lower average STP values after 20 years (Table 3, Figure 1). However, after 20 years there was only 0.5 mg l -1 difference in the mean STP values between the two scenarios, but the distributions of the values were very different (Figure 2). Fertilization according to plant P requirement concentrated STP values sharply near 5 mg l -1 , while in zerobalance STP values were more broadly distributed. After 20 years of fertilization, 99% of STP values were lower than 43 and 47 mg l -1 in the scenarios of plant P requirement and zero-balance, respectively. Table 3. Average STP values, quartiles and 99th percentiles of the distributions of STP values in 2005-2009 and as estimated after 20 years of different fertilization in Finland. Finland STP, mg l -1 measured STP after 20 years, mg l -1, predicted 2005-2009 Plant P requirement Q25 Q50 Q75 99th percentile Average 6 9 15 73 13.0 Zero-balance of P 5 5 7 43 7.6 3 6 9 47 8.1 Finland STP, mg l-1 14 12 10 8 Plant P requirement 6 Zero-balance of P 4 2 0 at present after 5 years after 10 years after 15 years after 20 years Figure 1. Average STP values at present (2005-2009) and as estimated after 20 years of different fertilization in Finland. The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 6 Figure 2. The distribution of STP values at present (2005-2009) and as estimated after 20 years of different fertilization in Finland. In 2011, 28.6 million kg of phosphorus was used annually in fertilization, whereof manure P made up 17.5 million kg (Figure 3). Phosphorus fertilization was about 1.7-fold compared to plant P requirement in 2011 and 12% higher than the amount of P in harvested crops. In the calculations concerning 20 years onward from the present date STP gradually decreased, which led to a gradual increase in P requirement by plants (Figure 3). After 15 years, P requirement was slightly higher than P in harvested crop. However, after 20 years plant P requirement was still lower than the amount actually used in 2011 although STP was decreased. If fertilization would be made according to plant requirement 142.7 million kg P (25.0%) could be saved during 20 years compared to the current practice. In the 20 years manure P can cover 81.8% of the fertilizer need if it is spread only to the fields which require P fertilization. Mineral P would be needed 78.2 million kg as supplementary fertilizer during the 20 years. If P removed in harvested crop is only replaced (zerobalance), P fertilization can be reduced by 59.2 million kg P (10.4%) compared to current fertilization. However, as a long-standing practice it may lead to yield reduction, since soils with very l ow STP would be under-fertilized. The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 7 35.0 Finland P fertilization, million kg 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 Plant P requirement 10.0 Zero-balance of P Present mineral P 5.0 Present manure P 0.0 at present after 5 years after 10 years after 15 years after 20 years Figure 3. Phosphorus fertilization according to plant requirement and zero-balance and actual fertilization in 2011 (= at present). 3.2. Coastal regions of the Baltic Sea The four ELY regions along the coast of Baltic Sea differed from each other for their P use and present STP values. Average STP values in 2005-2009 were 11.2 mg l -1 in SEF and UUS (Table 4, Figure 4), while in regions of intensive animal production SWF and OSB average STP values were 17.2 mg l -1 and 16.4 mg l -1, respectively. There were clearly more samples with excessively high STP values in the latter two regions. Twenty years of P fertilization according to the scenarios of plant requirement and zero balance would decrease STP values in all four regions. Decreases in STP would be more pronounced in SWF and OSB than in the other two regions. Moreover, in SWF and OSB regions STP values would decrease more with the scenario of plant P requirement than that of the zero-balance. This is due to fertilization of high STP soils when applying P in zero-balance, as compared to the other scenario with no fertilization of high STP soils. In SEF and UUS the both scenarios resulted in nearly equal reduction of average STP indicating practically identical potential for DP load reduction. In the different region, distribution of STP values reacted to different fertilization strategies similarly as in Finland as a whole. Phosphorus fertilization according to plant requirement concentrated STP values in a narrow peak near value 5 mg l -1, while with zero-balance scenario STP values were more broadly distributed (Figure 5). The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 8 Table 4. Average STP values, quartiles and 99th percentiles of the distributions of STP values. Numbers are shown for the 2005-2009 period (= at present), and as estimated after 20 years of different fertilization scenarios in ELY Centres of Southeast Finland (SEF), Uusimaa (UUS), Southwest Finland (SWF) and Ostrobothnia (OSB). At present STP, mg l -1 Southeast Finland (SEF) Q25 Q50 Q75 99th percentile Average Uusimaa (UUS) Q25 Q50 Q75 99th percentile Average Southwest Finland (SWF) Q25 Q50 Q75 99th percentile Average Ostrobothnia (OSB) Q25 Q50 Q75 99th percentile Average Plant P Zero-balance requirement of P STP after 20 years, mg l -1 6 8 13 51 11.2 5 5 7 29 6.9 3 6 8 33 7.1 6 8 13 55 11.2 5 5 6 34 7.0 3 6 8 37 7.5 7 10 19 110 17.2 5 5 10 70 10.3 4 7 13 74 11.6 7 10 18 105 16.4 5 5 8 62 8.8 3 6 11 67 9.9 The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 9 Uusimaa 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 STP, mg l-1 STP, mg l-1 Southeast Finland 10 8 10 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 at present after 5 years after 10 years after 15 years after 20 years at present 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 8 after 15 years after 20 years 10 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 at present after 10 years Ostrobothnia STP, mg l-1 STP, mg l-1 Southwest Finland after 5 years 0 after 5 years after 10 years after 15 years after 20 years at present after 5 years after 10 years after 15 years after 20 years Figure 4. Average STP values at present and estimated after 20 years of different P fertilization scenarios in ELY Centres of Southeast Finland (SEF), Uusimaa (UUS), Southwest Finland (SWF) and Ostrobothnia (OSB). The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 10 Southeast Finland Uusimaa 100000 60 000 50 000 80000 Hectares Hectares 40 000 30 000 60000 40000 20 000 20000 10 000 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 STP, mg l-1 Southwest Finland 40 Ostrobothnia 140000 60000 120000 50000 100000 40000 Hectares Hectares 20 30 STP, mg l-1 80000 60000 30000 20000 40000 20000 10000 0 0 0 10 20 STP, mg l-1 Plant P requirement 30 40 0 10 Zero-balance of P 20 STP, mg l-1 30 40 At present Figure 5. The distribution of STP values at present and as estimated after 20 years of d ifferent P fertilization in ELY Centres of Southeast Finland (SEF), Uusimaa (UUS), Southwest Finland (SEF) and Ostrobothnia (OSB). The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 11 In 2011 fertilization in SWF was 2-fold higher than the plant P requirement i.e., production of 95% of the yield maximum (Figure 6). After 20 years with scenario of ‘plant P requirement’, nearly equal amount of P would be needed as was used in 2011, but the STP values were much reduced. Manure P would be enough to meet plant requirements in the first ten years after which the region would need imported manure P from other regions. We calculated that during 20 years at least 23.8 million kg of P could be spared with fertilization according to their plant P requirement compared to the current practice, whereas savings of P would be even higher than that, 29.7 million kg, when compared to the zero-balance scenario. In OSB current fertilization was 3.1-fold compared to plant P requirement and 1.7-fold compared to P removed in harvested crop in 2011. About 3.1 million kg manure P was produced per year in the region. If plants were fertilized according to plant P requirement, it would be possible to save at least 46.3 million kg P in 20 years compared to fertilization in 2011. Manure P produced in OSB region w ould be sufficient to satisfy plant P requirement for 20 years and about 26.9 million kg of surplus manure P could be transferred to other regions during the two decades. In SEF and UUS fertilization in 2011 was only slightly higher than the biological plant P requirement (Figure 6). Plant P requirement was 1.04 and 1.29 million kg in SEF and UUS, respectively. Manure P met 59 and 35% of the plant P requirement in SEF and UUS, respectively. This indicates that both regions are potential receivers for manure P from the other regions. It is possible to spare 0.35 million kg P during 20 years in SEF if fertilization was made according to plant P requirement compared to the current use. In UUS the situation was vice versa. Fertilization according to plant P requirement would need during the 20 years 4.4 million kg more P than if present use is continued. The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 12 P fertilization, million kg 5.0 Southeast Finland 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 at present after 5 years after 10 years P fertilization, million kg 5.0 after 15 years after 20 years 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 at present P fertilization, million kg after 20 years Uusimaa 4.0 after 5 years 5.0 after 10 years Southwest Finland 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 at present P fertilization, million kg after 15 years after 5 years 5.0 after 10 years after 15 years after 20 years after 15 years after 20 years Ostrobothnia 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 at present after 5 years after 10 years mmm Plant P requirement Zero-balance of P Present manure P Present mineral P Figure 6. Average P fertilization at present (year 2011) and calculated P fertilizer need according to plant requirement and zero-balance in ELY Centres of Southeast Finland (SEF), Uusimaa (UUS), Southwest Finland (SEF) and Ostrobothnia (OSB). The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 13 4. Discussion Animal production affects strongly the P flows in agriculture. Antikainen et al. (2005) showed that as much as 70 % of the P harvested in crops was fed directly to animals in 1995-1999. At present, the quantities are similar, 67% of the cereal consumption being used as fodder (Tike 2013). Specialization of different farms in plant and animal production results in use of mineral P fertilizers on farms without manure P, and that is the case even on regions with enough, or in excess of animal manure to meet the requirements of the plants in the whole region. Particularly this was the case in OSB, but also in SWF, where fertilizer P sales during the 2000’s have not been different from those regions which have less animal manure to replace mineral fertilizers. The same phenomenon is reality at smaller scales down to the farm level even in other regions with less concentrated animal production, since it is diluted in our calculations which use regional average values. Cultivation of special crops such as sugar beet, potato and vegetables was not taken into account in our scenarios, but only cereals and grasses were assumed to be grown. As a result of that decision P actually required for fertilization may be underestimated, but the extent of the underestimation is unknown as the actual biological requirement of P is only known for cereals and grasses. However, the limitation doesn’t fundamentally alter the obtained results, because cereals and grasses are major crops in Finland, covering 91% of the cultivated area. In SEF, UUS, SWF and OSB the proportions of cereals and grasses are 89, 85, 92 and 90%, respectively. The other shortcoming in these calculations was that in the ‘zero-balance’ scenario the yield was assumed to remain unaffected, irrespective of the STP decrease in time. In fact, a fraction of STP values reduced to a level where plant P requirement for 95% yield maximum was far higher than the amount given to compensate P removed in the harvested crop. Therefore, when used in practice, this simple fertilization strategy would not result in as high total yield as the ‘plant P requirement’ strategy. The trends in average STP concentrations for the zero-balance and the plant P requirement scenarios were very similar. The goal to reduce P loading into waters can thus be achieved by both fertilization strategies. However, when fertilized with zero-balance, soils with low STP status are under-fertilized and don’t meet their yield potential, whereas soils with high STP status are over-fertilized which leads to inefficient and uneconomical P use (see Valkama et al. 2011). By both fertilization scenarios STP values would decrease faster than fertilizing according to the rates allowed in FAEP regulations (results not presented here). From the trends in STP concentrations we can at some level predict the effects on P losses, because leaching of dissolved P (DP) has been shown to correlate with soil STP (Uusitalo and Aura 2005). By using a simplified model, where DP concentration (mg l -1) of runoff water was estimated to be 0.01* STP and total runoff 270 mm per year, annual losses of DP can be roughly estimated. In 2005-2009 DP load would have been accordingly 0.7 million kg per year in Finland. Phosphorus fertilization according to plant requirement or zero-balance would, respectively, result in 42% or 38% lower DP losses due to lower STP values after 20 years. If plants were fertilized according to their P requirement, saving of about 143 million kg P during 20 years could be achieved compared to the present P use. In some regions, e.g. SWF and OSB, manure P produced is more than enough to meet the requirements of the plants due to prolonged P surplus in the regions The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 14 which has led to P accumulation and higher STP status of the soils. In case of plant P requirement practice surplus manure P could then be transported to other regions or stored for later use. The regional and local imbalance between plant and animal production is one important factor contri buting to the mismanagement of plant nutrients (Sibbesen and Runge-Metzger 1995, Granstedt 2000). Cereal farms use mineral fertilizers to produce fodder that is sold to animal farms where nutrients accumulate and are prone to losses. There are some ways out of this currently one-directional P transport towards an environmentally sound nutrient management. In regions where animal production is not centralized, better co-operation and integration between neighboring cereal and animal farms may solve the probl em. Nutrients are then recycled between farms when cereal farm produces fodder to the animal farm, which in turn delivers manure to the cereal farm. In the animal intensive regions situation is much more difficult, when costly transportation of animal manure to other regions is required. In that case, new technologies for manure processing are necessary to concentrate the nutrients into a smaller volume to facilitate transportation. A third solution would be forced decentralization of the animal production, as suggested by Granstedt (2000) for Sweden. The last solution would be politically difficult and constrained by the current subsidy system. If the high surpluses and losses of P are aimed to be diminished and natural mineral P resources spared , input to the agricultural system must be reduced. The mineral P stock currently brought into the agricultural soils should be adjusted by closing the nutrient loop more tightly. This means that not only recycling of manure P must be improved but also P in e. g. human excreta and slaughter wastes must be returned back to the agricultural soils. All P flows and stocks need to be quantified regionally to develop optimal P use and necessary technological solutions. The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 15 5. Literature Aakkula, J., Manninen, T., and Nurro, M. (eds.) 2010. Follow-up study on the impacts of agri-environment measures (MYTVAS 3) – Mid-term report (in Finnish). Maa- ja metsätalousministeriön julkaisuja 1/2010. Available: http://www.mmm.fi/attachments/mmm/julkaisut/julkaisusarja/newfolder/5pe9soaAU/Mytvas_netti.pdf Antikainen, R., Haapanen, R., Lemola, R., Nousiainen, J.I. and Rekolainen, S. 2008. Nitrogen and phosphorus flows in Finnish agricultural and forest sectors, 1910–2000. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 194: 163–177. Antikainen, R., Lemola, R., Nousiainen, J.I., Sokka, L., Esala, M., Huhtanen, P., Rekolainen, S. 2005. Stocks and flows of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Finnish food production and consumption system. Agriculture, ecosystems & environment 107:287-305. MTT 2013.Feed tables in English. Available:https://portal.mtt.fi/portal/page/portal/Rehutaulukot/feed_tables_english Saarela, I. 2002. Phosphorus in Finnish soils in the 1900s with particular reference to the acid ammonium acetate soil test. Agricultural and Food Science in Finland 11: 257-271. Salo, T., Lemola, R. 2010. Typpi- ja fosforitaseet. In: Maatalouden ympäristötuen vaikuttavuuden seurantatutkimus (MYTVAS 3), väliraportti. In: Aakkula, J., Manninen, T. Nurro, M (eds.). Maa- ja metsätalousministeriön julkaisuja 1/2010: p. 30-40 [url ] Sibbesen, E., Runge-Metzger, A. 1995. Phosphorus balance in European agriculture - Status and policy options. In: Tiessen, H. (ed.) Phosphorus in the Global Environment - Transfers, Cycles and Management, SCOPE 54. John Wiley, p. 43-57. Available: http://www.scopenvironment.org/downloadpubs/scope54/4sibbesen.htm Steen, I. 1998, Phosphorus Availability in the 21st Century: Management of a Non Renewable Resource. Phosphorus and Potassium No: 217. Available: http://www.nhm.ac.uk/researchcuration/research/projects/phosphate-recov... Tike 2013. Cereals balance sheet for the crop year 2012–2013: Use of cereals decreased over the previous year. News and press releases published 26.9.2013. Available: http://185.20.137.77/en/use-cerealsdecreased-over-previous-crop-year_en Turtola, E. and Yli-Halla, M. 1998. Fate of phosphorus in slurry and mineral fertilizer: accumulation in soil and release onto surface runoff water. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 55:165–174. Uusitalo, R. and Aura E. 2005. A rainfall simulation study on the relationships between soil test P versus dissolved and potentially bioavailable particulate phosphorus forms in runoff. Agricultural and Food Science 14: 335-345. Uusitalo, R. and Jansson, H. 2002. Dissolved reactive phosphorus in runoff assessed by soil extraction with an acetate buffer. Agricultural and Food Science in Finland 11: 343–353. The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 16 Valkama, E., Uusitalo, R., and Turtola, E., 2011. Yield response models to phosphorus application: a research synthesis of Finnish field trials to optimize fertilizer P use of cereals. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 91: 1-15. Vuorenmaa, J., Rekolainen, S., Lepistö, A., Kenttämies, K. and Kauppila, P. 2002. Losses of nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural and forest areas in Finland during the 1980s and 1990s. Environmental Monitoring and Assesment 76: 213-248. Vuorinen, J., Mäkitie, O. 1955. The method of soil testing in use in Finland. Agrogeological Publications 63. 44 p. Yearbook of Farm Statistics, 2006. Information Centre of the. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki. 267 p. Yearbook of Farm Statistics, 2008. Information Centre of the. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki. 266 p. Yearbook of Farm Statistics, 2009. Information Centre of the. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki. 268 p. Ylivainio, K., Sarvi, M., Lemola, R., Uusitalo, R. and Turtola, E. 2014. Regional P stocks of soil and animal manure as compared to P requirement of plants. MTT Report 124 in press. The project is partly financed by the European Union European Regional Development Fund 17 This report in brief About the project Phosphorus (P) loading to watercourses is clearly related to soil P status (STP), which has more than doubled in Finland since 1950s due to positive P balances. The current P fertilization is still higher than required for the maximum yield. Changes in STP and P use during the next 20 years were predicted with two P fertilization scenarios: biological optimum P use (resulting in 95% of the maximum yield of cereals and grasses) and zero-balance (fertilization equal to P in harvested crop). Calculations were made for the whole country and four regions along the Baltic Sea coast. The Baltic Sea Region is an area of intensive agricultural production. Animal manure is often considered to be a waste product and an environmental problem. Due to decreasing STP values, successive P fertilization according to the biological optimum or the zero-balance would, respectively, result in 42% or 38% lower dissolved P losses after 20 years. If plants were fertilized according to the biological optimum, about 143 million kg P would be saved in 20 years in Finland compared to the present P use. In some regions, by continuing the present manure production, manure P would alone meet the 20-year requirements. The long-term strategic objective of the project Baltic Manure is to change the general perception of manure from a waste product to a resource. This is done through research and by identifying inherent business opportunities with the proper manure handling technologies and policy framework. To achieve this objective, three interconnected manure forums has been established with the focus areas of Knowledge, Policy and Business. Read more at www.balticmanure.eu. This report on two P fertilization scenarios in Finland was prepared as part of the work package 4 on manure standards in the project Baltic Manure. www.balticmanure.eu Part-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund)