BBA International Program
OM316-BBA-2-2012
Course Outline
BBA International Program
Thammasat Business School
Thammasat University
Course Syllabus
Course Title:
Semester:
Section:
Prerequisite:
OM316 Business Forecasting
Semester 2/2012
Section 026401
BA 204 Business Statistics or equivalent
Course Description:
Operational planning plays an important role in determining business success. A good plan requires
a benchmark by studying and analyzing past and recent quantitative data. This will lead to reliable
forecast of future using statistical programs, which will benefit executives in making timely decisions.
This subject covers the studies of several forecasting techniques such as Naïve, Moving averages,
Exponential smoothing, Simple Linear Regression, Multiple Linear Regression, Time Series
Decomposition, and ARIMA-type models. Students will learn how to use these techniques as well as
to combine different forecasting results in order to achieve the finest forecasting outcome for
optimal uses. In addition, students will have opportunities to use forecasting software for
forecasting practices throughout the term.
Course Objective:
The purpose of this course is to give students an understanding of practical issues related to
forecasting, to lead students through the most helpful forecasting techniques to use in any
forecasting effort, and to give students opportunities to practice their analyses with forecasting
software such as Excel-Based ForecastXTM.
Class Time and Venue:
Date:
Friday
Time:
9:30am – 12:30pm
Venue:
TBS Room # 208
Instructor:
Associate Professor Ekachidd Chungcharoen, Ph.D.
TBS Building, MBA Office
Tel. 02-226-4509
E-mail: ekachidd@tbs.tu.ac.th
Office hours: By appointment
Teaching Assistant:
TBA
Required Text and Materials:
Business Forecasting with Accompanying Excel-based ForecastXTM Software, J. Holton
Wilson, Barry Keating, and John Galt Solutions, Inc., 5th edition, McGraw Hill.
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BBA International Program
OM316-BBA-2-2012
Course Outline
Recommended Texts and Materials:
Business Forecasting by John E. Hanke, Dean W. Wichern, and Arthur G. Reitsch, 9th edition, Prentice
Hall.
Grading:
Midterm Examination
Final Examination
Term Project
Homework& Assignments
Total
30%
35%
20%
15%
100%
Course Administration:
1. Reading Assignment & Exercises:
Students are required to read the chapter before class and to do exercises that will help clarifying
topics discussed in the class.
2. Term Project:
The purpose of the term project is to have each group of students select any time series data of
interest, state the purpose of forecasting these data, apply various forecasting techniques
learned from class, and come up with the final result of forecasting analysis.
Guideline on report preparation:
General format
1. The report must be typed and double space (Time New Roman, 12-font size).
2. Report covers are a choice of the group.
3. Use subheadings within the report and when necessary.
4. A table of contents, a list of tables, and a list of figures are necessary.
5. Plan the report carefully so as to develop an organized and non-redundant report. It should be
organized and assembled as a continuous report and should not be several independent
segments bound together.
Tentative Outline of the report
1. Executive abstract. The report must begin with a one- to two- page abstract that orients the
reader as to the contents as well as the major sections of the report.
2. Introduction. The first segment should present a brief background of time series data
3. Quantitative forecasting analysis. This part of the report, separated in chapters, contains various
details of your forecasting analyses and results from applying different forecasting techniques.
4. Summary. In 1-2 pages, state any implication of results and summarize your project.
5. Appendix. All supplement calculations, figures, and other information should be summarized in
this section.
Additionally, appendix, exhibits, tables, figures attached to the report must be typed and referred to
in the report.
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BBA International Program
OM316-BBA-2-2012
Course Outline
Tentative Course Schedule
Class#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Date
Friday Jan 11.
Friday Jan 18.*
Friday Jan 25.
Friday Feb 1.
Friday Feb 8.
Friday Feb 15.
Friday Feb 22.
Description
Chapter 1: Introduction to Business Forecasting
ForecastX Software Overview
Chapter 2: The Forecast Process, Data Considerations, and
Model Selections, Statistical Review, ACF
Chapter 3: Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing
Chapter 4: Regression Methods
8
9
10
Friday Mar 8.
Friday Mar 15.
Friday Mar 22.
Chapter 5: Multiple Regression
11
12
13
14
15
Friday Mar 29
Friday Apr 5.
Friday Apr 12.
Friday Apr 19.
Friday Apr 26.
Chapter 6: Time-Series Decomposition
Chapter 7: ARIMA (Box-Jenkins)- Type Forecasting Models
* required makeup classes
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Chapter 8: Combining Forecast Results
BBA International Program
Academic Schedule of Semester 2/2012:
(January 7 - May 17, 2013)
Important Dates
Second Semester Begins
Period of Withdraw W/O Record
Period of Midterm Examination
Makha Bucha Day*
Last Day of Withdraw with "W"
Chakri Memorial Day*
Substitution for Chakri Memorial Day*
Songkran Festival Day*
Last Day of Classes
Coronation Day*
Substitution for Coronation Day*
Period of Final Examination
Royal Ploughing Ceremony Day*
OM316-BBA-2-2012
Course Outline
Schedule
January 7, 2013
January 7 - 18, 2013
February 24 - March 3, 2013
February 25, 2013
March 22, 2013
April 6, 2013
April 8, 2013
April 13 - 16, 2013
April 28, 2013
May 5, 2013
May 6, 2013
May 4 - 17, 2013
May 13, 2013
Note *Public Holiday
Important Notes to Students Regarding Class Attendance
Announced by BBA International Program:
a. Students who miss more than 13 hours of class but less than 22 hours must seek instructor’s
approval for eligibility to take the final exams and approval by the dean. The dean’s decision is
considered final.
b. Students who miss more than 22 hours of class are NOT eligible to take the final exams and
results in course failure.
Please note that feigning other student signatures or failure to attend class after signing in results
different level of penalty imposed.
o Level 1 penalty: First time rule breakers will be considered as “Absent” for that actual class
time. And a warning letter issued to first-time rule breakers.
o Level 2 penalty: Second time rule breakers receive an “F” for the course and will not be
considered for BBA scholarships, exchange student programs and other awards.
o Level 3 penalty: Third-time rule breakers are given one semester of class suspension.
Cheating in any form of class exam or quiz or plagiarism is subject to the penalties based on
Thammasat University’s student compliance act.
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