BBA International Program
Thammasat Business School
1. Course Title:
2. Course Credits:
3. Prerequisite:
4. Course Description:
5. Course Objectives:
6. Date of Latest
Course Revision:
7. Purposes of
Course Revision:
8. Semester/
Academic Year:
9. Date & Time & Venue:
10. Instructor:
11. Course Co-ordinator
12. Teaching Assistant:
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OM 316-BBA-2-2014
TQF3 Course Specification
BBA International Program
Thammasat Business School
Thammasat University
TQF3 Course Specification
(Curriculum 2009) OM 316 Business Forecasting
(Curriculum 2013) OM 316 Business Forecasting
3 Credits (3-0-6)
(Curriculum 2009) BA 204 or equivalent
(Curriculum 2013) Have earned credits of BA 204
(Curriculum 2009)
Operational planning plays an important role in determining business
success. A good plan requires a benchmark by studying and analyzing past
and recent quantitative data. This will lead to reliable forecast of future
using statistical programs, which will benefit executives in making timely
decisions.
This subject covers the studies of several forecasting techniques such as
Naïve methods, Moving averages, Exponential smoothing, Simple and
multiple Regression, Time Series Decomposition, and ARIMA-type models.
In addition, students will learn how to combine different forecasting results
to yield the finest forecasting outcome for optimal uses as well as to have
opportunity to practice using forecasting software throughout the term.
(Curriculum 2013)
Analyzing past and recent quantitative as well as qualitative data to achieve
reliable forecast of the future, statistical programs, review of relevant
statistical concepts, the important role of forecasting in several business
functions, the forecasting process, studies of several forecasting techniques
such as Naïve, Moving averages, Exponential smoothing, Simple and
Multiple Linear Regression, Time Series Decomposition, and ARIMA-type
models, using forecasting techniques and software as well as combining
forecasting results to achieve the finest forecasting outcome for optimal
uses
The purpose of this course is to give students an understanding of practical
issues related to forecasting, to lead students through the most helpful
forecasting techniques to use in any forecasting effort, and to give students
opportunities to practice their analyses with forecasting software such as
TM
Excel-Based ForecastX .
January 5, 2015
The course is revised regularly to ensure the relevance of the courses to the
business world. The contents are updated so that it is of the benefits of the
students in their future studies or future careers.
2/2014
Date:
Time:
Venue:
Name:
Office:
Email:
Office Hours:
Name:
Email:
Name:
Friday
9.30 a.m. – 12.30 p.m.
th
Computer Room, 4 Floor
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ekachidd Chungcharoen
Room 118 TBS Building
ekachidd@tbs.tu.ac.th
Wednesday 1.00 p.m. - 3.00 p.m.
None
None
To be announced
BBA International Program
Thammasat Business School
13. Hours Employed
per Semester:
14. Main Texts:
15. Recommended Texts
& Materials:
16. Learning Outcomes:
1. Morality and Ethics:
2.
Knowledge:
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Email:
Lecture
OM 316-BBA-2-2014
TQF3 Course Specification
To be announced
Supplemental
Classes
Laboratory/
Self-Study
Field Work/
Internship
45 hours
0 hours
0 hours
90 hours
Business Forecasting with Accompanying Excel-based ForecastXTM
Software, J. Holton Wilson, Barry Keating, and John Galt Solutions,
th
Inc., 6 edition, McGraw Hill.
Business Forecasting by John E. Hanke, Dean W. Wichern, and Arthur G.
th
Reitsch, 9 edition, Prentice Hall.
Instructor Handouts: The handouts can be downloaded from the BBA
website at http://list.bba.bus.tu.ac.th/handout/
The five learning outcomes are stated below:
Expected outcomes on morality and ethics:

1.1 Possess honesty, sacrifice, self-, social-, and environmental
responsibility.
N/A 1.2 Value “sufficiency” theory and adapt it in life path by
adhering to adequacy, rationale, and immunity
development.
N/A 1.3 Value disciplines, respect, and comply with the rules and
regulations of the institution and society at large.
N/A 1.4 Acquire knowledge related to business morality and
ethics, and be able to handle ethical dilemma with
integrity.
Teaching methods:
Lecture and discussion on ethical issues related to data analysis and the use
of forecasting results.
Evaluation methods:
Homework Assignment on data analysis.
Forecasting term project.
Expected outcomes on knowledge:
N/A 2.1 Acquire knowledge on and understand the important
concepts in business management.
N/A 2.2 Acquire knowledge on and understand the important
social and science concepts related to business
management.

2.3 Acquire knowledge on and understand the important
concepts related to business processes, planning,
corporate structures, operations, control, performance
evaluation and contingency plan to suit the circumstances.
N/A 2.4 Acquire the knowledge on academic advancement and
professional development in business management
including the understanding of the situational adaptability
and its impacts on business.
Teaching methods:
Lecture on the processes and key concepts of various business forecasting
techniques. Discussion on the analysis of forecasting results of given data.
Practice on the use of forecasting program to analyze time series data of
interest.
Evaluation methods:
Homework assignments.
Midterm and final exams.
BBA International Program
Thammasat Business School
3.
Intellectual
Development:
4.
Interpersonal Skills
and Responsibilities:
5.
Quantitative Analysis,
Communication and
Information
Technology:
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OM 316-BBA-2-2014
TQF3 Course Specification
Expected outcomes on intellectual development:

3.1 Be able to search and process information and utilize
various concepts appropriately in a given circumstance.
N/A 3.2 Be able to think systematically and rationally and to
integrate knowledge from other disciplines to solve the
problems in business and other settings.

3.3 Be able to collectively propose solutions to problems at
hand and analyze the impacts of the proposed solutions
and be able to choose the solution that is appropriate to a
given situation to ensure business competitive advantages.
Teaching methods:
Assign business forecasting term project.
Evaluation methods:
Do project on analysis of time series data of the firm of interest. Analyze
the key effects on these data. Select several appropriate forecasting
techniques to fit the data. Evaluate the accuracy of each technique and
compare all the techniques together. Select the best technique to be used
for planning purpose. Justify the answer with current business
circumstance. Conclude on how to use the results for planning purpose.
Expected outcomes on Interpersonal Skills and Responsibilities:

4.1 Be able to work in team, possess interpersonal skills and
leadership skills, and be professionally adaptive to a given
situation.
N/A 4.2 Be creative and constructively criticize to solve problem of
the team.
N/A 4.3 Be responsible for self-learning and professional
development.
Teaching methods:
Assign the business forecasting term project in group.
Evaluation methods:
Peer evaluation related to project work.
Expected outcomes on Quantitative Analysis, Communication and
Information Technology:

5.1 Be able to apply mathematics, statistics, quantitative
analysis in analyzing and making decisions in business and
daily life.
N/A 5.2 Be able to efficiently communicate in Thai and foreign
languages that are relevant in doing business.
N/A 5.3 Be able to explain the issues and make the issues clear in
verbal or writing, and be able to choose the appropriate
pattern of communication for different groups of audience
both in business context and in other contexts.

5.4 Be able to utilize the information technologies or others to
support the business operations.
Teaching methods:
Teach on analysis of data and on the application of key forecasting
techniques by using Microsoft Excel, SPSS, and ForecastX programs in the
computer laboratory
Evaluation methods:
Homework assignments on related topics.
BBA International Program
Thammasat Business School
17. Evaluation Plan:
18. Course Schedule:
Session/Date & Time
#1: 16-01-2015
#2: 23-01-2015
#3: 30-01-2015
#4: 06-02-2015
#5: 13-02-2015
#6: 20-02-2015
#7: 27-02-2015
#8: 13-03-2015
#9: 20-03-2015
#10: 27-03-2015
#11: 03-04-2015
#12: 10-04-2015
#13: 24-04-2015
#14: 1-05-2015
#15: 8-05-2015
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OM 316-BBA-2-2014
TQF3 Course Specification
The evaluation plan for this course is stated as follows:
Expected
Methods/Activities
Week (s)
Outcomes
Evaluated
1.1, 2.3, 5.1, 5.4
Homework Assignments
Every 2
wks
3.1, 3.3
Midterm Exam
8
3.1, 3.3
Final Exam
16
1.1, 2.3, 3.1, 3.3,
Term Project
16
4.1, 5.1, 5.4
Weights
Assigned
15%
30%
35%
20%
100%
The course schedule for this course is stated as follows:
Topics
Activities/
Text & Materials/
Media
Introduction to Business Forecasting.
Lecture
Overview of Qualitative and Quantitative Practice on MS Excel/
Techniques. Forecasting Process.
Chapter 1
Accuracy Measures. Example of Basic
Forecasting Technique: Naïve I and II.
Examples
The Forecast Process, Data
Lecture
Considerations, and Model Selections,
Practice on ForecastX
Statistical Review, Auto Correlation
/Chapter 2
Function (ACF) Analysis. Examples
Moving Averages and Exponential
Lecture
Smoothing Techniques. Holt Exponential Practice on MS Excel,
Smoothing Technique. Holt and Winter
ForecastX/
Smoothing Technique. Examples
Chapter 3
Simple Linear Regression Model. Basic
Lecture
Concept. Validating the model.
Practice on SPSS, ForecastX/
Examples
Chapter 4
Multiple Linear Regression Model
Lecture
Basic Concept. Validating the Model.
Practice on SPSS, ForecstX/
Stepwise Regression Technique.
Chapter 5
Examples
Time-Series Decomposition. Trend,
Lecture
Cyclical Effect, Seasonal Effect, and
Practice on MS Excel,
irregular Variation. Developing the
ForecastX /
Model. Examples.
Chapter 6
Chapter 7: ARIMA (Box-Jenkins)-Type
Lecture
Forecasting Models. AR, MA, and ARMA
Practice on ForecastX/
Models. ACF and PACF Analysis.
Chapter 7
Validating the Model. Ljung Box Analysis.
Examples
Combining Forecast Results. Determine
Lecture
the Optimal Weights of Each Technique
Practice on ForecastX/
by using Linear Regression. Examples
Chapter 8
BBA International Program
Thammasat Business School
19. Details on
Assignments:
20. Notes to Students:
OM 316-BBA-2-2014
TQF3 Course Specification
The details for the assignment are stated as follows:
Term Project:
The purpose of the term project is to have each group of students select any
time series data of interest, state the purpose of forecasting of these data,
apply various forecasting techniques learned from the class, and come up
with the final result of forecasting analysis for firm’s planning purpose.
Guideline on report preparation:
General format
1. The report must be typed and double space (Time New
Roman, 12-font size).
2. Report covers are a choice of the group.
3. Use subheadings within the report and when necessary.
4. A table of contents, a list of tables, and a list of figures are
necessary.
Plan the report carefully so as to develop an organized and nonredundant report. It should be organized and assembled as a continuous
report and should not be several independent segments bound together.
Tentative Outline of the report
1. Executive abstract. The report must begin with a one- to twopage abstract that orients the reader as to the contents as well
as the major sections of the report.
2. Introduction. The first segment should present a brief
background of time series data
3. Quantitative forecasting analysis. This part of the report,
separated in chapters, contains various details of your
forecasting analyses and results from applying different
forecasting techniques.
4. Summary. In 1-2 pages, state any implication of results and
summarize your project.
5. Appendix. All supplement calculations, figures, and other
information should be summarized in this section.
Additionally, appendix, exhibits, tables, figures attached to the report must
be typed and referred to in the report.
The academic calendar is stated below:
21. Academic Calendar:
Academic Schedule of Semester 2/2014:
(January 12, 2015 - May 26, 2015)
Important Dates
Semester Begins
Period of Withdraw W/O Record
Makha Bucha Day*
Period of Midterm Examination
Period of Withdraw with "W"
Chakri Memorial Day*
Songkran Festival Day*
Last Day of Classes
Period of Final Examination
Coronation Day*
Royal Ploughing Ceremony Day*
Note *Public Holiday
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Schedule
January 12, 2015
January 21 - 26, 2015
March 4, 2015
March 1 - 8, 2015
March 16 - 27, 2015
April 6, 2015
April 11 - 17, 2015
May 9, 2015
May 12 - 26, 2015
May 5, 2015
TBA
BBA International Program
Thammasat Business School
OM 316-BBA-2-2014
TQF3 Course Specification
The regulations on the class attendance is stated below:
22. Attendance:
Important Notes to Students Regarding Class Attendance
Announced by BBA International Program:
a. Students who miss more than 13 hours of class but less than 22 hours must seek instructor’s approval
for eligibility to take the final exams and approval by the dean. The dean’s decision is considered final.
b. Students who miss more than 22 hours of class are NOT eligible to take the final exams and results in
course failure.
Please note that feigning other student signatures or failure to attend class after signing in results different
level of penalty imposed.
o Level 1 penalty: First time rule breakers will be considered as “Absent” for that actual class time. And a
warning letter issued to first-time rule breakers.
o Level 2 penalty: Second time rule breakers receive an “F” for the course and will not be considered for
BBA scholarships, exchange student programs and other awards.
o Level 3 penalty: Third-time rule breakers are given one semester of class suspension.
Cheating in any form of class exam or quiz or plagiarism is subject to the penalties based on Thammasat
University’s student compliance act.
23. Course and Teaching
Evaluation and
Improvement:
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The Program has set policies related to course and teaching evaluation and
improvement as follows:
1. Strategies for course evaluation by students:
There will be two evaluations per course: Mid-semester and end-ofsemester course evaluations. The course evaluation will be administered by
BBA staff with the instructor absent from the classroom. The instructor will
receive feedback from students in the following key areas:
 Class preparation
 Teaching capability
 Appropriateness of activities or assignments
 Encouragement of Class discussion
 Opportunity to ask questions
 Encouragement of independent study and additional practices
 Benefits of the course
Course evaluation will be summarized and returned to the instructor after
the grades are sent to the Program. Moreover, the course evaluation of
each instructor of every course offered will be reviewed by BBA Operating
Committee.
2. Evaluation strategies in teaching methods:
The effectiveness of teaching methods will be evaluated from the students’
accomplishments such as participation, assignments, and exams.
3. Improvement of teaching methods:
The instructor will use the feedbacks from 2. above to improve the teaching
methods.
4. Evaluation of students’ desire learning outcomes:
After receiving the feedback from the mid-semester course evaluation and
students’ assessments, the instructor revises the teaching methods to
ensure that the desired learning outcomes are achieved.
5. Review and improvement for better outcomes:
A summary of course evaluation for each course will be supplied to course
instructor. The Program will use the feedback to improve the curriculum
structure and course content in the regular curriculum revision cycle.