Section 26–3 ◆ 739 Numerical Description of Data Stem and Leaf Plots Make a stem and leaf plot for the data of 16. problem 1. 17. problem 2. 18. problem 3. 26–3 Numerical Description of Data We saw in Sec. 26–2 how we can describe a set of data by frequency distribution, a frequency histogram, a frequency polygon, or a cumulative frequency distribution. We can also describe a set of data with just a few numbers, and this more compact description is more convenient for some purposes. For example, if, in a report, you wanted to describe the heights of a group of students and did not want to give the entire frequency distribution, you might simply say: The mean height is 58 inches, with a standard deviation of 3.5 inches. The mean is a number that shows the centre of the data; the standard deviation is a measure of the spread of the data. As mentioned earlier, the mean and the standard deviation may be found either for an entire population (and are thus population parameters) or for a sample drawn from that population (and are thus sample statistics). Thus to describe a population or a sample, we need numbers that give both the centre of the data and the spread. Further, for sample statistics, we need to give the uncertainty of each figure. This will enable us to make inferences about the larger population. ◆◆◆ Example 15: A student recorded the running times for a sample of participants in a race. From that sample she inferred (by methods we’ll learn later) that for the entire population of racers mean time 23.65 0.84 minutes standard deviation 5.83 0.34 minutes ◆◆◆ The mean time is called a measure of central tendency. We show how to calculate the mean, and other measures of central tendency, later in this section. The standard deviation is called a measure of dispersion. We also show how to compute it, and other measures of dispersion, in this section. The “plus-or-minus” values show a degree of uncertainty called the standard error. The uncertainty 0.84 min is called the standard error of the mean, and the uncertainty 0.34 min is called the standard error of the standard deviation. We show how to calculate standard errors in Sec. 26–6. Measures of Central Tendency: The Mean Some common measures of the centre of a distribution are the mean, the median, and the mode. The arithmetic mean, or simply the mean, of a set of measurements is equal to the sum of the measurements divided by the number of measurements. It is what we commonly call the average. It is the most commonly used measure of central tendency. If our n measurements are x1, x2, . . . , xn, then x x1 x2 xn There is a story, probably untrue, about a statistician who drowned in a lake that had an average depth of 1 ft. (30 cm). 740 Chapter 26 ◆ Introduction to Statistics and Probability where we use the Greek symbol (sigma) to represent “the sum of.” The mean, which we call _ x (read “x bar”), is then given by the following: x x n Arithmetic Mean 249 The arithmetic mean of n measurements is the sum of those measurements divided by n. We can calculate the mean for a sample or for the entire population. However, we use a different symbol in each case. is the Greek capital letter "sigma". x is the sample mean (mu) is the population mean ◆◆◆ Example 16: Find the mean of the following sample: 746 574 645 894 736 695 635 794 Solution: Adding the values gives x 746 574 645 894 736 695 635 794 5719 Then, with n 8, 5719 x 715 8 rounded to three significant digits. ◆◆◆ Weighted Mean When not all of the data are of equal importance, we may compute a weighted mean, where the values are weighted according to their importance. ◆◆◆ Example 17: A student has grades of 83, 59, and 94 on 3 one-hour exams, a grade of 82 on the final exam which is equal in weight to 2 one-hour exams, and a grade of 78 on a laboratory report, which is worth 1.5 one-hour exams. Compute the weighted mean. Solution: If a one-hour exam is assigned a weight of 1, then we have a total of the weights of w 1 1 1 2 1.5 6.5 To get a weighted mean, we add the products of each grade and its weight, and divide by the total weight. 83(1) 59(1) 94(1) 82(2) 78(1.5) weighted mean 79.5 6.5 ◆◆◆ Section 26–3 ◆ 741 Numerical Description of Data In general, the weighted mean is given by the following: (wx) weighted mean w Midrange We have already noted that the range of a set of data is the difference between the highest and the lowest numbers in the set. The midrange is simply the value midway between the two extreme values. highest value lowest value midrange 2 ◆◆◆ Example 18: The midrange for the values 3, 5, 6, 6, 7, 11, 11, 15 is 3 15 midrange 9 2 ◆◆◆ Mode Our next measure of central tendency is the mode. Mode The mode of a set of numbers is the value(s) that occur most often in the set. 251 A set of numbers can have no mode, one mode, or more than one mode. ◆◆◆ Example 19: (a) The set 1 3 3 5 6 7 7 7 9 (b) The set 1 1 3 3 5 5 7 7 (c) The set 1 3 3 3 5 6 7 7 7 has the mode 7. has no mode. 9 has two modes, 3 and 7. It is called bimodal. ◆◆◆ Median To find the median, we simply arrange the data in order of magnitude and pick the middle value. For an even number of measurements, we take the mean of the two middle values. Median ◆◆◆ The median of a set of numbers arranged in order of magnitude is the middle value of an odd number of measurements, or the mean of the two middle values of an even number of measurements. Example 20: Find the median of the data in Example 16. Solution: We rewrite the data in order of magnitude. 574 635 645 695 736 746 794 894 250 742 Chapter 26 ◆ Introduction to Statistics and Probability The two middle values are 695 and 736. Taking their mean gives 695 736 median 715.5 2 ◆◆◆ Five-Number Summary The median of that half of a set of data from the minimum value up to and including the median is called the lower hinge. Similarly, the median of the upper half of the data is called the upper hinge. The lowest value in a set of data, together with the highest value, the median, and the two hinges, is called a five-number summary of the data. ◆◆◆ Example 21: For the data 12 17 18 20 22 28 32 34 49 52 59 66 17 18 20 22 28 30 30 32 34 49 52 59 the median is (28 32)2 30, so 12 minimum value lower hinge median upper hinge 66 maximum value The five-number summary for this set of data may be written ◆◆◆ [12, 20, 30, 49, 66] Min Hinge Median 12 20 30 Hinge 49 FIGURE 26–6 A boxplot. It is also called a box and whisker diagram. Max 66 ◆◆◆ Boxplots A graph of the values in the five-number summary is called a boxplot. ◆◆◆ Example 22: A boxplot for the data of Example 21 is given in Fig. 26–6. Measures of Dispersion We will usually use the mean to describe a set of numbers, but used alone it can be misleading. ◆◆◆ Example 23: The sets of numbers 1 1 10 10 1 1 1 1 10 10 10 1 1 1 91 10 10 10 and the set 10 10 each have a mean value of 10 but are otherwise quite different. Each set has a sum of 100. In the first set most of this sum is concentrated in a single value, but in the second set the sum is ◆◆◆ dispersed among all the values. Thus we need some measure of dispersion of a set of numbers. Four common ones are the range, the percentile range, the variance, and the standard deviation. We will cover each of these. Range We have already introduced the range in Sec. 26–2, and we define it here. Range The range of a set of numbers is the difference between the largest and smallest numbers in the set. 252 Section 26–3 ◆◆◆ ◆ 743 Numerical Description of Data Example 24: For the set of numbers 6 3 9 12 44 2 53 1 8 the largest value is 53 and the smallest is 1, so the range is range 53 1 52 ◆◆◆ We sometimes give the range by stating the end values themselves. Thus, in Example 24 we might say that the range is from 1 to 53. Quartiles, Deciles, and Percentiles We have seen that for a set of data arranged in order of magnitude, the median divides the data into two equal parts. There are as many numbers below the median as there are above it. Similarly, we can determine two more values that divide each half of the data in half again. We call these values quartiles. Thus one-fourth of the values will fall into each quartile. The quartiles are labelled Q1, Q2, and Q3. Thus Q2 is the median. Those values that divide the data into 10 equal parts we call deciles and label D1, D2, . . . . Those values that divide the data into 100 equal parts are percentiles, labelled P1, P2, . . . . Thus the 25th percentile is the same as the first quartile (P25 Q1). The median is the 50th percentile, the fifth decile, and the second quartile (P50 D5 Q2). The 70th percentile is the seventh decile (P70 D7). One measure of dispersion sometimes used is to give the range of values occupied by some given percentiles. Thus we have a quartile range, decile range, and percentile range. For example, the quartile range is the range from the first to the third quartile. ◆◆◆ Example 25: Find the quartile range for the set of data 2 4 5 7 8 11 15 18 19 21 24 25 Solution: The quartiles are Note that the quartiles are not in the same locations as the upper and lower hinges. The hinges here would be at 7 and 19. 57 Q1 6 2 11 15 Q2 the median 13 2 19 21 Q3 20 2 Then quartile range Q3 Q1 20 6 14 ◆◆◆ We see that half the values in Example 25 fall within the quartile range. We may similarly compute the range of any percentiles or deciles. The range from the 10th to the 90th percentile is the one commonly used. Variance We now give another measure of dispersion called the variance, but we must first mention deviation. We define the deviation of any number x in a set of data as the difference between _ that number and the mean x of that set of data. ◆◆◆ Example 26: A certain set of measurements has a mean of 48.3. What are the deviations of the values 24.2 and 69.3 in that set? Solution: The deviation of 24.2 is 24.2 48.3 24.1 744 Chapter 26 ◆ Introduction to Statistics and Probability and the deviation of 69.3 is 69.3 48.3 21.0 ◆◆◆ To get the variance of a population of n numbers, we add up the squares of the deviations of each number in the set and divide by n. (x x )2 2 n Population Variance is the Greek small letter sigma. 253 To find the variance of a sample, it is more accurate to divide by n 1 rather than n. As with the mean, we use one symbol for the sample variance and a different symbol for the population variance. s2 is the sample variance 2 is the population variance For large samples (over 30 or so), the variance found by either formula is practically the same. _ Sample Variance ◆◆◆ (x x)2 s n1 2 254 Example 27: Compute the variance for the population 1.74 2.47 3.66 4.73 5.14 6.23 7.29 8.93 9.56 _ Solution: We first compute the mean, x. 1.74 2.47 3.66 4.73 5.14 6.23 7.29 8.93 9.56 x 9 5.53 We then subtract the mean from each of the nine values to obtain deviations. The deviations are then squared and added, as shown in Table 26–6. TABLE 26–6 Measurement x 1.74 2.47 3.66 4.73 5.14 6.23 7.29 8.93 9.56 x 49.75 Deviation _ xx 3.79 3.06 1.87 0.80 0.39 0.70 1.76 3.40 4.03 _ (x x) 0.02 Deviation Squared _ (x x)2 14.36 9.36 3.50 0.64 0.15 0.49 3.10 11.56 16.24 _ (x x)2 59.41 The variance 2 is then 59.41 2 6.60 9 ◆◆◆ Section 26–3 ◆ 745 Numerical Description of Data Standard Deviation Once we have the variance, it is a simple matter to get the standard deviation. It is the most common measure of dispersion. Standard Deviation The standard deviation of a set of numbers is the positive square root of the variance. 255 Histogram Data 1 σ=0 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 x 1 2 σ = 0.50 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 Relative frequency 5 6 x 1 3 σ = 0.82 5 6 7 x 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 1 4 σ = 1.12 4 5 6 7 x 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 1 6 σ = 1.71 3 4 5 6 7 8 x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 12 σ = 3.45 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 x FIGURE 26–7 746 Chapter 26 ◆ Introduction to Statistics and Probability As before, we use s for the sample standard deviation and for the population standard deviation. ◆◆◆ Example 28: Find the standard deviation for the data of Example 27. Solution: We have already found the variance in Example 27. 2 6.60 Taking the square root gives the standard deviation. 6.60 2.57 To get an intuitive feel for the standard deviation, we have computed it in Fig. 26–7 for several data sets consisting of 12 numbers that can range from 1 to 12. In the first set, all of the numbers have the same value, 6, and in the last set every number is different. The data sets in between have differing amounts of repetition. To the right of each data set are a relative frequency histogram and the population standard deviation (computation not shown). Note that the most compact distribution has the lowest standard deviation, and as the distribution spreads, the standard deviation increases. For a final demonstration, let us again take 12 numbers in two groups of six equal values, as shown in Fig. 26–8. Now let us separate the two groups, first by one interval and then by two intervals. Again, notice that the standard deviation increases as the data move further from the mean. Data Histogram 1 2 σ = 0.50 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 x 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 Relative frequency The mean shifts slightly from one distribution to the next, but this does not affect our conclusions. ◆◆◆ 1 2 σ = 1.0 4 6 x 1 2 σ = 1.50 4 4 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 7 7 7 4 7 x FIGURE 26-8 From these two demonstrations we may conclude that the standard deviation increases whenever data move away from the mean. Section 26–3 Exercise 3 ◆ 747 Numerical Description of Data ◆ Numerical Description of Data Mean 1. Find the mean of the following set of grades: 85 74 69 59 60 96 84 48 89 76 96 68 98 79 76 2. Find the mean of the following set of weights: 173 127 142 164 163 153 116 199 3. Find the mean of the weights in problem 1 of Exercise 2. 4. Find the mean of the times in problem 2 of Exercise 2 5. Find the mean of the prices in problem 3 of Exercise 2. Weighted Mean 6. A student’s grades and the weight of each grade are given in the following table. Find their weighted mean. Hour exam Hour exam Quiz Final exam Report Grade Weight 83 74 93 79 88 5 5 1 10 7 7. A student receives hour-test grades of 86, 92, 68, and 75, a final exam grade of 82, and a project grade of 88. Find the weighted mean if each hour-test counts for 15% of his grade, the final exam counts for 30%, and the project counts for 10%. Midrange 8. Find the midrange of the grades in problem 1. 9. Find the midrange of the weights in problem 2. Mode 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Find the mode of the grades in problem 1. Find the mode of the weights in problem 2. Find the mode of the weights in problem 1 of Exercise 2. Find the mode of the times in problem 2 of Exercise 2. Find the mode of the prices in problem 3 of Exercise 2. Median 15. Find the median of the grades in problem 1. 16. Find the median of the weights in problem 2. 17. Find the median of the weights in problem 1 of Exercise 2. 748 Chapter 26 ◆ Introduction to Statistics and Probability 18. Find the median of the times in problem 2 of Exercise 2. 19. Find the median of the prices in problem 3 of Exercise 2. Five-Number Summary 20. Give the five-number summary for the grades in problem 1. 21. Give the five-number summary for the weights in problem 2. Boxplot 22. Make a boxplot using the results of problem 20. 23. Make a boxplot using the results of problem 21. Range 24. Find the range of the grades in problem 1. 25. Find the range of the weights in problem 2. Percentiles 26. Find the quartiles and give the quartile range of the following data: 28 39 46 53 69 71 83 94 102 117 126 27. Find the quartiles and give the quartile range of the following data: 1.33 2.28 3.59 4.96 5.23 6.89 7.91 8.13 9.44 10.6 11.2 12.3 Variance and Standard Deviation 28. Find the variance and standard deviation of the grades in problem 1. Assume that these grades are a sample drawn from a larger population. 29. Find the variance and standard deviation of the weights in problem 2. Assume that these weights are a sample drawn from a larger population. 30. Find the population variance and standard deviation of the weights in problem 1 of Exercise 2. 31. Find the population variance and standard deviation of the times in problem 2 of Exercise 2. 32. Find the population variance and standard deviation of the prices in problem 3 of Exercise 2. 26–4 Introduction to Probability Why do we need probability to learn statistics? In Sec. 26–3 we learned how to compute certain sample statistics, such as the mean and the standard deviation. Knowing, for exam_ ple, that the mean height x of a sample of students is 69.5 in., we might infer that the mean height of the entire population is 69.5 in. But how reliable is that number? Is equal to 69.5 in. exactly? We’ll see later that we give population parameters such as as a range of values, say, 69.5 0.6 in., and we state the probability that the true mean lies within that range. We might say, for example, that there is a 68% chance that the true value lies within the stated range.