Assignments for Cht. 5, Forecasting BSNS2120, J. Wang Read: p.149-160, p.166-167, p.174 Homework: p.181 – , Discussion Questions and Problems 5-15, 5-16. (Data are in Table 5.2, p.157) (Do not use computer for these two problems. Show your calculations) 5-17 and extension Use the data given in Problem 5-17 and do the following: (1) Develop a three-year moving average to forecast the sales of year 12. (2) Develop a three-year weighted moving average to forecast the sales of year 12, in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other two years are each given a weight of 1. (3) Develop a two-year moving average to forecast the sales of year 12. (4) Develop a four-year moving average to forecast the sales of year 12. (5) You have developed four different forecasts in (1) – (4) to forecast the sales of year 12. Which one would you use? Explain your answer and support your choice. (Do this problem by using QM for Windows. Print out “Results” and “Details and Error Analysis”. Answer the questions based on the QM results.) 5-21 (Do not use computer for this problem. Show your calculations.) 5-22, 5-23 (Do thes problems by using QM for Windows. Print out “Results” and “Details and Error Analysis”. Answer the questions based on the QM results.) 5-34. (Do it with the help of QM for Windows.) Assume four seasons in a year. (1) Write out the definitions of variables Y, X1, X2, X3, … , (2) Print out QM “Results” and “Details and Error Analysis”; (landscape orientation , font size 8,) (3) Write out the regression equation; (4) Calculate the forecast of sales for each of the four quarters of Year 5. Bonus: Redo 5-34 by using three seasons, instead of four, in a year. You need to review the data to determine how to divide a year into three seasons. Write out the definition of each of the three seasons, i.e. which quarter(s) belong(s) to which season. Which model is better, the model with four seasons or the model with using three seasons? Explain briefly. 1