Employment Security Department Labor Market & Economic Analysis Branch Food Processing Introduction It is one of Washington’s first manufacturing industries. Ever since 1866, when a small salmon cannery was built in Eagle Cliff, food processing has been one of Washington’s economic mainstays. Today, over 880 plants—from the seafood processor in Anacortes to the boutique vintner in College Place, from the fruit growers cooperative in the Yakima Valley to the bakery in Seattle, the meat packer in Pasco to the frozen French fried potato processor in Othello—employ 40,000 workers, making food processing the state’s second largest manufacturing industry after transportation equipment. Figure 1 Employment in Washington’s Food Processing Industry, 1947-1998 Source: Washington Employment Security Department 45,000 40,000 35,000 Total employment 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 Although the food processing industry has generally added employees since the late 1940s, this sector exhibits cyclical behavior—adding employees during economic expansions while shedding employees during economic slumps. Food processing’s economic vacillations are not as pronounced as other manufacturing sectors in Washington. The last few years, however, have signaled a change in food processing; while the state economy and manufacturing have expanded with new hires, food processing has languished with some closures and a reduction in employment. Figure 2 Annual Employment Change in Washington Total Nonfarm, Total Manufacturing and Food Processing, 1971-1998 Source: Washington Employment Security Department 15.0% Annual Change in Employment 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% 1971 1974 1977 1980 Food Processing 1983 1986 Total M anufacturing 1989 1992 1995 1998 Total State N onfarm Characteristics of the Food Processing Industry Food processing occupies a powerful position within the food and fiber system. The industry has been likened to the center of an hourglass: raw agricultural commodities from more than two million farms and ranches flow through roughly 20,000 processors, which in turn sell their array of processed products to more than half a million food wholesalers and retailers. Over a hundred million domestic households consume the meat and dairy products, canned and frozen fruits and vegetables, milled grains, bakery products, beverages, and seafood. The importance of food processing lies in its various economic functions. Foremost, processors convert food materials into finished, consumer-ready products through the application of labor, machinery, energy, and management. They employ handling, manufacturing, and packaging techniques to add economic value to raw commodities harvested from the farm or the sea. Virtually all agricultural products incur some degree of processing before reaching their final use. The value added varies by commodity: steers become meat, potatoes are turned into French fries, wheat is made into flour, apples become juice or sauce, and fresh salmon emerges as canned salmon. The farm value of fruit and vegetable products at the retail level—frozen peas, for instance—is about 20 percent, meaning that 80 percent of the retail value is “added” to the raw product during processing and distribution. Adding value to farm products and other material ingredients is the principal way that food processing contributes to state and national economies. Such “value-added” processing activities represent the creation and distribution of wealth, which translates into additional jobs and increased incomes. Finally, processors act as important middlemen within the food system. Consumer demand and agricultural supply information come together at the food processing center. For instance, a tight supply of frozen corn at the retail level is eventually transmitted into higher processor prices, a greater willingness to pay for key inputs, and a price signal to farmers to expand production or sell off their stored crop. In contrast, an unexpectedly short crop induces processors to raise their prices to retailers and distributors, which subsequently prompts a decrease in consumer demand. Scope and Definitions This industry report uses industry definitions and concepts that underlie the U.S. government’s Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In the SIC system, food processing is a major industry, one of twenty such industries that form the manufacturing sector, entitled food and kindred products. According to the Standard Industrial Classification Manual, there are forty-nine separate food processing industries. Each of the approximately 20,900 food processing plants operating in the United States in 1997 was placed in one of these forty-nine industry subsectors, and their food products were further divided into 170 well-defined food product classes. Food and kindred products (SIC 20) is organized into the following nine major groups: meat products (SIC 201)—including meat packing plants; sausages and other prepared meats; and poultry slaughter houses and egg farms; dairy products (SIC 202)—including fluid milk, butter, cheese, and ice cream; preserved fruits and vegetables (SIC 203)—including canned and frozen fruits and vegetables, canned and frozen specialties, dried and dehydrated fruits and vegetables, pickles and salad dressings; grain mill products (SIC 204)—including flours, cereal breakfast foods, flour mixes and doughs, and pet food; bakery products (SIC 205)—including bread and other bakery products, cookies, and crackers; sugar and confectionery products (SIC 206)—including cane and beet sugar, candy, chocolate, chewing gum, and nuts and seeds; fats and oils (SIC 207)—including vegetable and animal oils and fats, shortening, and margarine; beverages (SIC 208)—including malted beverages, wines, liquors, soft drinks, and flavoring extracts; and miscellaneous food (SIC 209)—including fresh, canned and frozen seafood; roasted coffee; potato and corn chips; and macaroni, spaghetti, and pasta products. Table 1 Employment by Washington Food Processing Subsector, 1981-1998 Source: Washington Employment Security Department Sector 1981 1985 1989 Average 1998 Annual Change 1993 Meat Products Dairy Products Preserved Fruits and Vegetables Grain Mill Products Bakery Products Sugar and Confectionery Products Fats and Oils Beverages Misc. Food and Kindred Products 4,116 3,883 4,318 3,885 4,537 1,698 1,592 1,748 1,817 1,728 11,250 11,256 12,665 13,572 13,518 1,193 1,185 1,512 1,681 1,761 3,019 2,850 2,999 3,606 3,171 646 754 732 628 831 185 157 170 144 273 3,773 3,630 3,179 2,966 3,175 5,824 5,485 8,403 10,425 11,012 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 2.8% 0.3% 1.7% 2.8% -0.9% 5.2% Total Food Processing 31,704 30,792 35,726 38,724 40,006 1.5% Figure 3 Number of Food Processing Establishments in Washington, 1981-1998 Source: Washington Employment Security Department 1,000 Number of establishments 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Meat Products Dairy Products Preserved Fruits and V egetables Grain Mill Products Bakery Products Sugar and Confectionery Products Fats and Oils Beverages Misc. Food and Kindred Products 1997 1998 Economic Contribution of Food Processing to Washington State In 1996, the Washington State food processing industry shipped products worth $9.83 billion. This represents 13.7 percent of the state’s total value of manufacturing production worth over $71.9 billion for that year. Fourteen percent ($1.37 billion) of food processing’s total value of production was shipped to foreign export markets. Preserved fruits and vegetables is the leading food processing sector in Washington, with one-fourth of the state’s production value ($2.54 billion in 1996). Other prominent sectors in the state are miscellaneous food processing ($1.69 billion); dairy products ($1.62 billion); meat products ($1.36 billion); and beverages ($1.31 billion). Why is Washington such a food processing powerhouse? The principal reason is that Washington has an abundant and diverse agricultural base, making the state one of the nation’s foremost producers of agricultural commodities. Besides being a significant producer of field crops and livestock, Washington is a prominent producer of vegetables and fruit commodities. In 1995, addition to being a major agricultural state, Washington is a major food processing state in terms of value added. In 1996, the food processors in Washington added a further $3.58 billion to the state’s agricultural production valued at $5.6 billion, implying that over half of value of raw product grown in-state was further processed within Washington. Like agriculture, Washington’s food processing industry is relatively diverse, though dominated by two subsectors—preserved fruits and vegetables and miscellaneous food products. These categories account for more than 60 percent of the state’s food processing employment and half of the industry’s value added. How important is food processing in Washington State? One set of studies looks at the relative proportion of a state’s food processing output and compares it with the nation. The observation that a state’s production concentrates in a particular food processing sector suggests that the state produces more than it needs and therefore exports the surplus. A simple measure used for food processing export is a location quotient, an index of production (or employment) concentration which assesses an industry’s share of total production (or employment) in a state. Production is put into index form by dividing its relative share in the state by the industry’s relative share of total production in the nation. An index number greater than 1 suggests that the state produces a surplus in the food processing sector which is exported elsewhere. Accordingly, an index number of 1 would indicate little or no trade while an index number less than 1 would suggest that the state imports the food processing products. In terms of production, Washington food processing had an overall index of 1.1 in 1996, implying that a portion of its production is shipped outside the state. By this measure, preserved fruits and vegetables and miscellaneous food processing are the leading sectors with an index of specialization of 2.45 and 2.18 respectively. Figure 4 Index of Specialization: Value of Production for Washington Food Processing, 1996 Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Annual Survey of Manufacturers 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.00 Index of Specialization 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 Meat Products Dairy Products Preserved Fruits & Vegetables Grain Mill Products Bakery Products Sugar& Confectionary/Fats & Oils Beverages Misc. Food Products Total In absolute terms, the greatest number of food processing jobs are concentrated in Washington’s larger metropolitan areas. More than a third of the total state food processing jobs are found in King County, the state’s largest metropolitan county. A truer picture emerges, however, in assessing food processing jobs as a relative share of a county’s total employment base. In relative terms, food processing is almost insignificant in many of the state’s major metropolitan areas. The greatest local impact of food processing employment lies in Washington’s smaller, rural counties; many located east of the Cascades. Table 2 Total Employment, Food Processing and Agricultural Employment in Washington State and Selected Areas, 1997 Source: Washington Employment Security Department Area Total Employment Food Processing Employment Agricultural Employment Percent Ag. & Food Process. of Total Employment STATE TOTAL 2,846,600 41,342 86,327 4.5% Western Washington 2,241,160 25,247 16,857 1.9% Eastern Washington 605,440 16,095 69,470 14.1% STATE AGRICULTURAL AREAS Columbia Basin 41,150 3,886 10,499 35.0% Adams County 7,900 1,084 2,669 47.5% Grant County 33,250 2,802 7,829 32.0% North Central 85,470 780 18,001 22.0% South Central 111,820 4,151 21,653 23.1% South Eastern 111,570 5,345 13,495 16.9% Benton & Franklin Counties 86,600 3,412 10,672 16.3% Walla Walla County 24,970 1,933 2,823 19.1% Eastern 255,420 1,933 5,824 3.0% Spokane County 195,900 1,562 1,402 1.5% Other Eastern Counties 36,020 362 1,754 5.9% Notes: Total employment and agricultural employment have been adjusted to eliminate the effect of dual job holding. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Washington’s food processing industry had $1.43 billion in industry earnings in 1997. This was almost 9 percent of all manufacturing earnings and 1.5 percent of total state industrial earnings. Food processing’s earnings trend over the last quarter of a century reveals an industry with rather steady relative earnings growth except for the long period in the 1980s that was triggered by severe national recessions. Figure 5 Real Earnings of Washington’s Food Processing Industry, 1969-1997 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis $1,500.0 Millions of Chained 1997 Dollars $1,400.0 $1,300.0 $1,200.0 $1,100.0 $1,000.0 $900.0 $800.0 $700.0 $600.0 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 According to the Washington Employment Security Department, Washington covered food processing workers posted an average wage and salary of $30,618 in 1998. This was below the state average covered wage ($33,922), but considerably below total manufacturing ($42,247). Outside of miscellaneous products, subsectors with the highest average food processing wages were those with the smallest share of employment. Reasons for the wage disparity are numerous. Some subsectors are less seasonal; still others had equipment and production processes that require more highly-skilled workers. In general, those workers with below average covered wages were in more labor-intensive and more seasonal subsectors. Table 3 Real Average Wages for Washington Food Processing Workers, 1981-1998 (1998 dollars) Sources: Washington Employment Security Department, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Sector 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998 Meat products $32,767 $28,691 $26,533 $24,936 $23,441 $22,285 $22,853 $22,665 $22,912 $24,334 Dairy products $44,324 $46,084 $42,418 $39,960 $35,564 $34,716 $34,727 $35,048 $33,845 $34,751 Preserved fruits & vegetables $24,029 $24,362 $24,628 $23,380 $23,472 $23,257 $23,849 $25,216 $25,868 $27,241 Grain mill products $34,610 $33,193 $34,313 $33,988 $33,913 $31,374 $34,641 $34,705 $35,409 $39,982 Bakery products $34,430 $33,646 $32,954 $32,448 $32,016 $28,382 $28,278 $27,767 $27,580 $28,836 Sugar & confectionery $24,308 $24,433 $21,941 $20,240 $22,090 $20,148 $19,419 $19,485 $20,056 $25,247 Fats & Oils $36,074 $34,481 $30,818 $27,230 $27,326 $27,214 $29,857 $29,723 $27,941 $29,238 Beverages $38,424 $37,305 $35,821 $36,585 $35,878 $32,485 $33,765 $34,039 $31,629 $33,127 Misc. Food & kindred $26,821 $25,837 $25,347 $26,281 $28,315 $28,770 $30,758 $31,261 $31,472 $35,438 Total, Food & kindred $29,941 $29,154 $28,348 $27,610 $27,452 $26,617 $27,702 $28,313 $28,558 $30,618 Total manufacturing $38,352 $37,909 $38,024 $37,876 $37,338 $37,667 $38,018 $38,942 $40,954 $42,247 Total nonfarm $28,783 $27,789 $27,313 $27,304 $27,167 $27,928 $28,575 $29,046 $31,504 $33,922 The seasonal nature of food processing and the skill requirements are further illustrated by a profile of average hourly wages. In 1997, more than half of all food processing workers earned less than $12 per hour. Figure 5 Food Processing and Total State Employment Share of Hourly Wages, 1997 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 25.0% Share of Total Employment 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% <$6 $6-$8 $8-$10 $10-$12 $12-$14 $14-$16 $16-$18 $18-$20 $20-$22 $22-$24 Misc. Processing Other $24-$26 >$26 Average H ourly Wage State Food Processing Fruit & V egetable Processing Note: Other refers to the remainder of food processing, including meat and dairy products, grain mill products, bakery products, sugar & confectionery, fats & oils, and beverages. The labor force in the food processing industry is dominated by operatives and laborers. Common food processing occupations within this group are machinists and operators, cannery workers, bakers, butchers, inspectors, hand packers, graders, and industrial truck operators. Clerical and administrative support occupations are also important in food processing. Table 4 Occupational Profile of Food Processing Workers in Washington, 1998 and 2008 Source: Washington Employment Security Department Estimated 1998 Projected 2008 Food Processing, SIC 20 Percent of Percent of Estimated Total Projected Total Employment Employment Employment Employment Managerial & Administrative Professional, Paraprofessional & Technical Sales & Related Occupations Clerical & Administrative Support Service Occupations Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Production, Operating & Maintenance Operators, Helpers & Laborers Undefined Occupations TOTAL 1,982 1,200 1,291 3,304 609 911 5,685 22,678 3,542 41,202 4.8% 2.9% 3.1% 8.0% 1.5% 2.2% 13.8% 55.0% 8.6% 100.0% 2,190 1,392 1,346 3,425 589 992 6,767 24,684 4,044 45,429 4.8% 3.1% 3.0% 7.5% 1.3% 2.2% 14.9% 54.3% 8.9% 100.0% Outlook for Washington Food Processing Although growth trends in U.S. trade of processed foods are expected to continue into the near future, the pace is slowing. The trade surplus enjoyed by U.S. processed foods will continue but the surplus is shrinking due to the recent economic crisis in Asia and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Although U.S. processed food exports were flat in 1998, U.S. exports of high-value-added consumer-packaged foods grew about 1 percent, while low-value-added exports fell almost 1.5 percent. Trade in value-added products is generally more sensitive to income levels and income growth in importing countries than is trade of raw agricultural commodities. As income levels have increased in smaller, less developed countries, these nations have become the fastest growing destinations for U.S. processed food exports. In particular, the newly industrialized nations of East Asia have been responsible for a significant portion of the recent surge in U.S. processed food exports. How do such trends bode for Washington’s food processors? Given Washington food processors’ dominance in low-value-added products and their increased orientation towards foreign export markets, prospects are modest at best. The appreciation of the U.S. dollar and the lingering effects of the Asian economic crisis are important factors in determining near-term prospects for Washington food processors. Projections for food processing indicate that employment will decline for the remainder of the 1990s. Food processing is slated, however, to recover during the next century with modest employment growth of 0.3 percent per annum between 2000 and 2020. Figure 8 Washington Food Processing Wage & Salary Employment Forecast, 2000-2020 Sources: Washington Office of Financial Management, Washington Employment Security Department 45,000 40,000 Total Employment 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1995 2000 Preserved Fruits & V egetables 2005 2010 M iscellaneous Food Processing 2015 Other Food Processing 2020