OVERVIEW FY07-08 was an impulsive year in the Karachi Stock Market. It got start with volatile but upward move, remained sustainable in the middle and then ended with highly erratic but downward move. Market touched its highest ever level in April, 2008 but put up with a crash at the end of year. Soaring oil Prices, food inflation and declining trends in the international markets along with poor Law & Order situation in the country hit our share market negatively. Share Market stabilization measures taken by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), good operating financial results from the major scrip’s, adequate liquidity in the market and comparatively stable macroeconomic environment contributed to positive move in the market. Key Statistics of Trading at Karachi Stock Exchange. 2007-08 KSE Turnover of Shares (Million) High Low Average June End 2006-07 525 11 242 11 467 27 212 448 4,754 3,417 4,187 3,744 3,981 2,645 3,099 3,981 590.40 419.31 541.40 455.34 547.47 404.11 439.29 547.47 KSE All Share Index (Sep 18, 1995=1000) High Low Average June End 11,148.68 8,038.39 9,880.11 8,834.24 9,758.81 6,399.29 7,575.89 9,758.81 State Bank Sensitive Index (2000-01=100) High Low Average June End 693.99 439.75 615.58 484.69 638.26 434.13 503.46 638.26 Market Capitalization (Billion Rupees) High Low Average June End State Bank General Index (2000-01=100) High Low Average June End KSE 100 Index (Nov 1, 1991=1000) High Low Average June End 15,676.34 11,162 .17 13,896.46 12,289.03 13,772.46 9,504.47 11,167.51 13,772.46 KSE 30 Index (June 30, 2005=10000) High Low Average June End 18,996.33 12,750.28 16,711.78 14,326.27 17,002.75 12,248.93 14,202.45 16,993.51 247 636 244 635 Number of Trading Days No. of Listed Companies viii State Bank of Pakistan General Index:SBP General Index of share prices stood at 455.34 points on June 30, 2008 as compared with 547.47 points reflecting a decrease of 92.13 points or 16.83 percent over the previous year. The major decreases were observed in Auto & Allied 306.12 points or 30.11%, Cement 228.06 points or 28.98%, Banks & Other Financial Institutions 210.95 points or 33.58%, Transport & Communication 145.71 points or 19.69% and Cables & Electrical Goods 108.27 points or 16.92 % on year to year basis. Where as increases in the index were recorded in Engineering 526.65 points or 44.88%, Miscellaneous 61.10 points or 13.84%, Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 53.37 points or 13.11%, Fuel & Energy 52.40points or 13.98% and Paper & Board 29.17 points or 7.91%. State Bank General Index of Share prices (2000-2001=100) As on Groups June 30,08 June 29,07 Cotton & Other Textiles 246.79 227.43 Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 460.51 407.14 Engineering 1700.12 1,173.47 Auto & Allied 710.43 1,016.55 Cables & Electrical Goods 531.77 640.04 Sugar & Allied 462.61 473.36 Paper & Board 398.17 369.00 Cement 558.94 787.00 Fuel & Energy 427.09 374.69 Transport & Communication 594.27 739.98 Banks & other Financial Inst. 417.26 628.21 Miscellaneous 502.46 441.36 Overall General Index 455.34 547.47 Change Points % 19.36 8.51 53.37 13.11 526.65 44.88 -306.12 -30.11 -108.27 -16.92 -10.75 -2.27 29.17 7.91 -228.06 -28.98 52.4 13.98 -145.71 -19.69 -210.95 -33.58 61.1 13.84 -92.13 -16.83 June 30,08 June 29,07 ix % Miscellaneous Transport & Communication Banks & other Financial Inst. Fuel & Energy Cement (%) Change 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Paper & Board Sugar & Allied Cables & Electrical Goods Auto & Allied Engineering 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Cotton & Other Textiles Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Index State Bank General Index of Share Prices State Bank of Pakistan Sensitive Index:SBP Sensitive index of share prices stood at 484.69 points on June 30, 2008 as compared with 638.26 points reflecting a decrease of 153.57 points or 24.06 percent over the previous year. The major decreases were observed in Sugar & Allied 1,015.83 points or 62.63%, Cables & Electrical Goods 858.06 points or 49.59%, Auto & Allied 740.80 points or 48.85 %, Banks & Other Financial Institutions 387.92 points or 43.58%, Cement 374.64 points or 38.07%, Engineering 284.59points or 29.99% and Miscellaneous 204.70 points or 30.07 % over the previous year. Where as significant increase in the index was recorded in Fuel & Energy 30.20 points or 7.72%. State Bank Sensitive Index of Share prices (2000-2001=100) As on Groups June 30,08 June 29,07 Cotton & Other Textiles 247.47 301.05 Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 496.03 486.33 Engineering 664.51 949.10 Auto & Allied 775.61 1,516.41 Cables & Electrical Goods 872.32 1,730.38 Sugar & Allied 606.12 1,621.95 Paper & Board 356.59 449.19 Cement 609.49 984.13 Fuel & Energy 421.36 391.16 Transport & Communication 544.52 746.36 Banks & other Financial Inst. 502.25 890.17 Miscellaneous 476.00 680.70 Overall Sensitive Index 484.69 638.26 Change Points % -53.58 9.70 -17.80 1.99 -284.59 -740.80 -29.99 -48.85 -858.06 -1,015.83 -92.60 -49.59 -62.63 -20.61 -374.64 30.20 -38.07 7.72 -201.84 -387.92 -204.70 -27.04 -43.58 -30.07 -153.57 -24.06 0 -10 -20 June 30,08 x % Miscellaneous Banks & other Financial Inst. Transport & Communication Fuel & Energy Paper & Board June 29,07 Cement -60 -70 Sugar & Allied Cables & Electrical Goods Auto & Allied Engineering Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals -30 -40 -50 (%) Change 20 10 Cotton & Other Textiles Index State Bank Sensitive Index of Share Price 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Market Capitalization:Aggregate market capitalization amounted to Rs 3,744,125 million on June 30, 2008 as compared to Rs 3,980,783 million at the end of previous year showing a decrease of Rs. 236,658.75 million or 5.95%. Major decreases were observed in Banks & Other Financial Institutions Rs 141,460 million or 9.11%, Transport & Communication Rs 80,494 million or 28.30%, Cement Rs. 48,495 million or 29.28% and Auto & Allied Rs. 28,850 million or 28.15%. And increase observed in the sectors, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals Rs. 45,319 million or 16.55%, Fuel & Energy Rs. 19,475 million or 1.78%, Engineering Rs.6,493 million or 34.57% and Miscellaneous Rs.4,430 million or 1.63%. Market Capitalization (Million Rupees) Change Points % As on June 30,08 June 29,07 Groups Cotton & Other Textiles Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Engineering Auto & Allied Cables & Electrical Goods Sugar & Allied Paper & Board Cement Fuel & Energy Transport & Communication Banks & other Financial Inst. Miscellaneous Overall Market Capitalization 128,951 136,240 -7,289 -5.35 319,084 273,765 45,319 16.55 25,275 18,781 6,493 34.57 73,650 102,501 -28,850 -28.15 21,402 25,306 -3,904 -15.43 20,632 19,421 1,211 6.24 29,210 32,306 -3,096 -9.58 117,133 165,628 -48,495 -29.28 1,116,254 1,096,779 19,475 1.78 203,953 284,447 -80,494 -28.30 1,412,025 1,553,485 -141,460 -9.11 276,555 272,125 4,430 1.63 3,744,125 3,980,783 -236,659 -5.95 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 40 20 10 0 -10 -20 June 30,08 June 29,07 xi % Miscellaneous Banks & other Financial Inst. Transport & Communication Fuel & Energy Cement -40 Paper & Board Sugar & Allied Cables & Electrical Goods Auto & Allied Engineering Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals -30 (%) Change 30 Cotton & Other Textiles Billion Rupees Market Capitalization Volume of Shares Traded at KSE:Total volume of shares traded during the year stood at 58.715 billion. The major sectors of trading were Banks & Other Financial Institutions 20.991 billion, Fuel & Energy 11.339 billion, Cement 8.177 billion, Transport & Communication 6.648 billion, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals 6.073 billion and Cotton & Other Textiles 3.6187 billion which constitutes 96.82% of the total volume of shares. Volume of Shares Traded at KSE As on June 30,08 June 29,07 Groups Cotton & Other Textiles Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Engineering Auto & Allied Cables & Electrical Goods Sugar & Allied Paper & Board Cement Fuel & Energy Transport & Communication Banks & other Financial Inst. Miscellaneous Total Shares (Shares in Millions ) Change Points % 3,618 2,516 1,102 43.82 6,073 3,596 2,478 68.90 386 45 340 748.51 350 201 148 73.64 59 34 25 74.39 217 110 107 96.67 168 67 102 152.75 8,178 8,853 -676 -7.63 11,339 11,446 -107 -0.93 15.85 6,648 5,739 910 20,991 18,275 2,716 14.86 690 340 351 103.21 58,716 51,221 7,495 14.63 Volume of Shares Traded 25,000 800 500 15,000 400 300 10,000 200 100 5,000 June 30,08 June 29,07 xii % Miscellaneous Banks & other Financial Inst. Transport & Communication Fuel & Energy Cement -100 Paper & Board Cables & Electrical Goods Auto & Allied Engineering Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Sugar & Allied 0 0 (%) Change 600 Cotton & Other Textiles Million Shares 700 20,000 Monthly Progress of Indices during FY08:Karachi Stock Market reached at its peak during this fiscal year but could not sustain the upward movement and at the end of the year it drop down to lowest. First and last quarters of the FY07-08 observe volatile movements in trading at KSE. While second and third quarters witnessed comparatively smooth trading as it is obvious from the following figures. A sharp decline at the end of the year was mainly due to soaring oil prices and disturbance on political front. Movements in SBP General Index & KSE All Share Index 600 12,000 SBP General Index 11,000 10,500 500 10,000 450 9,500 9,000 400 8,500 8,000 350 KSE All Share Index 11,500 550 7,500 300 7,000 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t No v De c J an S B P Ge ne ra l Inde x Feb Mar Apr M a y J un,08 KS E All S ha re s Inde x KSE All Share Index (Sep.18, 1995=1000) SBP General Index (2000-2001=100) Movements in SBP Sensitive Index & KSE-100 Index 700 16,000 15,000 600 14,000 550 500 13,000 450 12,000 400 11,000 350 300 10,000 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t No v De c S B P S e ns itive Inde x KSE-100 Index (Nov.1, 1991=1000) SBP Sensitive Index (2000-2001=100) Month End Indices are used. xiii J an Feb Mar KS E-100 Inde x Apr May J un,08 KSE-100 Index SBP Sensetive Index 650 Monthly Sector wise Analysis of Trading at KSE: Monthly sector wise analysis of SBP General Index, Sensitive Index and Market Capitalization shows that a few sectors perform well during the year but at the end market fell a prey to Bearish move. Fuel & Energy sector was the star performer of the year. Engineering, Chemical & Pharmaceutical and Banks & Other Financial Institutions also perform well. Sugar & Allied was the most volatile sector. Auto & Allied, Cables & Electrical Goods and Transport & Communication remain in red zone almost throughout the year. SBP General/Sensitive Price Index and Market Capitalization, 2007-08, for: 400 180 350 160 140 Index 300 120 250 100 200 80 150 60 100 40 50 20 0 Billion Rupees Cotton & Other Textile 0 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t Ge na ra l Inde x No v De c J an Feb S e ns itive Inde x Mar Apr M a y J un,08 M a rke t C a pita liza tio n Engineering 2000 35 1800 30 1400 25 1200 20 1000 800 15 600 10 400 5 200 0 0 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t Ge na ra l Inde x No v De c J an S e ns itive Inde x xiv Feb Mar Apr M a y J un,08 M a rke t C a pita liza tio n Billion Rupees Index 1600 700 400 600 350 300 Index 500 250 400 200 300 150 200 100 100 Billion Rupees Chemical & Pharmaceutical 50 0 0 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t Ge na ra l Inde x No v De c J an Feb S e ns itive Inde x Mar Apr M a y J un,08 M a rke t C a pita liza tio n 1800 140 1600 120 1400 100 Index 1200 1000 80 800 60 600 40 400 20 200 0 0 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t Ge na ra l Inde x No v De c J an S e ns itive Inde x xv Feb Mar Apr M a y J un,08 M a rke t C a pita liza tio n Billion Rupees Auto & Allied 1600 35 1400 30 Index 1200 25 1000 20 800 15 600 10 400 Billion Rupees Cabel & Electrical Goods 5 200 0 0 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t No v Ge na ra l Inde x De c J an Feb S e ns itive Inde x Mar Apr M a y J un,08 M a rke t C a pita liza tio n 900 21 800 21 700 20 600 20 500 19 400 19 300 18 200 18 100 17 0 17 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t Ge na ra l Inde x No v De c J an S e ns itive Inde x xvi Feb Mar Apr M a y J un,08 M a rke t C a pita liza tio n Billion Rupees Index Sugar & Allied Paper & Board 600 45 35 Index 400 30 25 300 20 200 15 10 100 Billion Rupees 40 500 5 0 0 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t No v Ge na ra l Inde x De c J an Feb S e ns itive Inde x Mar Apr M a y J un,08 M a rke t C a pita liza tio n 1000 180 900 160 800 140 Index 700 120 600 100 500 80 400 60 300 200 40 100 20 0 0 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t Ge na ra l Inde x No v De c J an S e ns itive Inde x xvii Feb Mar Apr M a y J un,08 M a rke t C a pita liza tio n Billion Rupees Cement Transport & Communication 900 350 800 300 250 Index 600 500 200 400 150 300 100 Billion Rupees 700 200 50 100 0 0 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oct No v Genaral Index Dec J an Feb Sens itive Index Mar Apr May J un,08 Market Capitalizatio n 600 1400 500 1200 1000 Index 400 800 300 600 200 400 100 200 0 0 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t Ge na ra l Inde x No v De c J an S e ns itive Inde x xviii Feb Mar Apr M a y J un,08 M a rke t C a pita liza tio n Billion Rupees Fuel & Energy Banks & Other Financial Institutions 1000 2500 800 2000 Index 700 600 1500 500 400 1000 300 200 Billion Rupees 900 500 100 0 0 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t No v Ge na ral Inde x De c J an Feb Se ns itive Inde x Mar Apr M a y J un,08 M a rke t Ca pita lizatio n 700 310 600 300 290 Index 500 280 400 270 300 260 200 250 100 240 0 230 J ul,07 Aug Sep Oc t Ge na ra l Inde x No v De c J an S e ns itive Inde x xix Feb Mar Apr M a y J un,08 M a rke t C a pita liza tio n Billion Rupees Miscellaneous Monthly State Bank of Pakistan Share Indices and Market Capitalization during 2007-08 Groups July Aug Sep 228 325 134 414 218 276 117 377 222 293 123 400 506 283 1,206 809 19 1,061 1,439 459 257 1,206 619 19 928 1,276 108 635 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May Jun 229 297 127 449 215 290 125 470 221 305 130 488 243 296 126 479 243 302 134 499 246 298 140 489 255 336 154 517 239 248 123 438 244 246 129 459 494 285 1,342 659 21 985 1,378 596 320 1,489 784 23 1,148 1,562 594 332 1479 810 26 1,065 1,422 578 342 1,643 912 29 1,075 1,420 551 326 1,643 824 27 967 1,191 613 350 1,769 790 28 939 1,200 588 347 1,723 777 27 904 1,138 600 366 1,766 864 28 943 1,229 490 310 1,619 665 24 751 887 498 319 1,692 667 25 712 777 95 530 105 575 118 647 110 605 112 631 98 681 98 671 94 659 100 640 78 545 74 532 1,468 1,197 1,295 1,215 1,173 1,176 26 477 701 20 390 417 31 744 949 153 424 22 435 643 18 340 386 28 685 823 135 387 24 448 697 20 363 447 35 705 932 152 423 29 452 766 21 383 504 38 724 923 153 459 26 452 718 21 398 520 38 678 869 147 452 26 436 617 20 397 555 39 678 900 151 457 1,086 1,090 1,096 1,064 822 865 26 418 518 18 366 492 36 627 816 138 444 26 413 568 20 390 514 37 654 900 149 462 26 412 584 19 412 518 42 661 938 154 455 26 422 568 21 425 495 40 650 949 158 508 23 417 512 19 395 347 28 544 668 121 426 21 463 611 21 398 355 29 561 615 118 429 432 1,116 751 823 296 614 840 1,505 444 656 274 393 987 694 765 248 553 797 1,339 426 555 255 431 1,084 744 793 267 577 782 1,678 439 601 273 462 1,186 800 834 265 604 828 1,799 463 626 284 451 1,146 713 687 236 591 795 1,792 485 586 297 457 1,175 753 709 236 648 892 1,950 498 588 297 444 1,129 664 623 207 618 817 1,806 496 553 281 460 1,210 711 612 225 647 861 2,017 536 575 288 457 1,239 685 579 238 601 778 2,025 511 556 279 508 1,270 732 685 245 573 720 1,992 544 566 288 417 1,118 619 566 209 410 485 1,403 507 501 260 423 1,126 597 548 206 419 506 1,423 499 473 271 553 653 3,963 504 595 3,521 537 635 4,067 571 679 4,363 551 632 4,295 582 664 4,508 552 610 4,218 579 637 4,582 556 611 4,630 566 636 4,688 452 486 3,715 457 488 3,761 2007 Cotton & other Textile Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Engineering Auto & Allied Cables & Electrical Goods Sugar & Allied Paper & Board Cement Fuel & Energy Transport & Communication Banks & Other Financial Inst. Miscellaneous GI SI MC GI SI MC GI SI MC GI SI MC GI SI MC GI SI MC GI SI MC GI SI MC GI SI MC GI SI MC GI SI MC GI SI MC Overall SBP General Index Overall SBP Sensitive Index Overall Market Capitalization GI= SBP General Index, SI=SBP Sensitive Index, 2008 MC=Market Capitalization in Billion Rupees Last Friday Indices are used. xx Apr State Bank Turn Over Index:State Bank Turn Over index remains volatile during FY08, particularly in last two quarters. It reached at a peak of 613 in February 2008. While at the end of the December it fall down to 70, the lowest of the year. State Bank Turn Over Index of Ordinary Shares During 2007-08 (2000-01=100) 700 600 Index 500 400 300 200 100 T urn Over Index Jul,07 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun,07 396 384 272 467 333 285 394 613 404 452 309 70 xxi