The Trading Tutor's Daily Commentary
November 17, 2014
Daily Commentary
by: Arthur Ullrich
The Trading Tutor™
21st year of Service to Day Traders
www.TradeTutor.com
Futures Contract:
@ES.D e-Mini S&P 500
Monday, November 17, 2014
Volume XXI
The intent of the Daily Commentary is to discuss the facts, technical analysis, and
structure of the price action, configuration of indicators, entry signals, targets, lowrisk stop placement, stop movements and exits.
With repetitious exposure to a
disciplined approach in this short term low-risk trading strategy, the reader should be
able to understand the methodology and learn to apply it independently. The online
Lesson Series contains much of the basis of the strategy, and the Daily Commentary
presents a chronology of the implementation. Each day the Commentary is explained
on Video with students present, The students ask questions and responses are
recorded for all to review. The Video Commentary is maintained on the web site for
all students. The Pre-Market Report is a separate report looking back on the prior
trading session and applying technical analysis to establish expectations for the next session while
including analysis results important for the next trading session and beyond. All times shown are
Eastern.
“The most important thing about goals is having one.”
5 Minute Chart
@ES Continuous Contract S&P 500. Open 2033.25 down 4.75 Points from Friday.
930 Trade #1 Buy this strong Bullish Fast Reversal at the market. Fast D
turned up and Fast K is well over the Fast D. 20xma is well above.
Trend: Bullish , Trading with the Trend
Fill: 2033.00
Stop Loss: 2030.75 under the bar 2.25 Points Risk
Target: 2037.00 4 Points Trading with the Trend
935 This is the lowest Open we have had in 6 trading days.
940 Strong Bullish 4th Bar™ . Amend the target to 2038.00 Friday’s close
1000
Move Stop Loss under at 2034.25
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The Trading Tutor, L.L.C.
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The Trading Tutor's Daily Commentary
November 17, 2014
1010 Strong Bearish bar. Stochastic turned down hare. Set Stop to reverse if
triggered.
1015 Strong Bullish reversal. No room to move stop. Notice price touched the
Pivot. Cancel the Stop and Reverse
1020 Target 1 hit and filled. Made 5 Points per. Price penetrated Friday’s close
Trailing Stop 2034.75
1025 Inside Bar, Dragonfly . Stochastic is high in the Over Bought Zone Don’t
move the Stop.
1030 Trade #2 Sell and Reverse on this Bearish Dragonfly . Fast D turned
down and Fast K well under the Fast D Stochastic bet high in the Over Bought
Zone. Price is extended from the 20xma .
Trend: Bullish , Counter Trend Trade
Fill: 2038.25
Stop Loss: 2040.75
Target: 2035.25 Arbitrary 3 points on Counter Trend Trade , Trail a Stop.
1035
Back to the Pivot, Don’t move the Stop.
1040
Bearish 4th Bar™ . Move Stop Loss over at 2038.75
1045
Target 1 hit and filled. Made 3 POINTS PER ,Trailing Stop 2038.75 .
1100
Bullish 4th Bar™ Holding Short Set Tg2 at 2032.25
1005 Strong Bearish bar. No room to move stop.
1110 Bearish 4th Bar™ . Move Stop Loss over at 2037.25
1120
Holding Short . Not stopped out.
1130
Only ticks to target.
1135 Target 2 hit and filled. Made 6 points per .. Price is back at the 930 low.
Stochastic is Deep in the Over Sold Zone.
On the Reversal, Trade # 2
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The Trading Tutor, L.L.C.
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The Trading Tutor's Daily Commentary
November 17, 2014
1140 Trade #3 Buy and Reverse on this Bearish Dragonfly .. Fast D turned up
and Fast K snapped back to the Fast D. Stochastic is Deep in the Over Sold Zone.
Looks like price re-acted to the low of the 930 bar. Notice the 7xma is below the
20xma and Both are Bearish .
Trend: Still Bullish and has not reversed to Bearish
Fill: 2032.50
Stop Loss: 2030.25
Target: 2036.50 Arbitrary 4 Points.
Target discussion: To achieve this target price will have to penetrate the 7xma
and 20xma plus the Mid-Range Line. The target is just under the Pivot. Very
unlikely.
1145
Strong Bullish bar. Move Stop Loss under at 2030.75.
1155
Strong Bullish 4th Bar™ 2031.25
1210
Holding Long. Not stopped out.
1215 Penetrated the 7xma and 20xma , Touching the Mid-Range Line
Move Stop Loss under at 2031.75.
1225
Double Doji
1230
Target 1 hit and filled. Made bade 4 points per . Don’t move the Stop. .
1240
Trailing Stop under 2034.75
1245
Break out above the Pivot. This bull move is stronger than expected.
1300 Holding Long Set Tg2 at 2040 50. Returned to the Pivot. Fast D and
Fast K turned down . Holding Long.
1300
Holding Long . Set Stop at 2024.75 to reverse if triggered.
1320
Only ticks to target. Cancel the Stop and Reverse
1325
Touched my Target, No fill.. Trailing Stop 2037.75
1330
Target 2 hit and filled. Made 8 points per.
On the Reversal, Trade # 3 made 6.75 points per, trailing stop.
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The Trading Tutor, L.L.C.
Exclusively for subscribers..
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The Trading Tutor's Daily Commentary
November 17, 2014
1330 Trade #4 Sell and Reverse on this Bearish Fast Reversal at the market.
Fast D turned down and Fast K well under the Fast D . Looks like price re-acted
to the Friday’s High. 7XMA is well above the 20xma here.
Trend: Bullish , Counter Trend Trade
Fill: 2039.25
Stop Loss: 2041.75
Target: 2036.25 3 Points Trail a Stop.
1335
Don’t move the Stop.
1340
Move Stop Loss over at 2040.75
1350
Price is back at the 20xma. Move Stop Loss over at 2040.25.
On the Reversal, Trade # 4 Made 2 ticks
1355 Trade #5 Buy and reverse on this strong Bullish Fast Reversal Looks
like price re-acted to the Pivot. Dragonfly turned up and Fast K is well over the
Fast D.
Trend: Bullish , Trading with the Trend
Fill: 2038.75
Stop Loss: 2035.75 under the bar
Target: 2042.75 Arbitrary 4 Points, Trail a Stop.
1415
Move Stop Loss under at 2037.25
1435
No room to move stop.
1455 No room to move stop.
On the Reversal, Trade # 5 made 1 tick per
1515 Trade #6 Sell and Reverse on this Bearish Fast Reversal at the market.
Fast D turned down and Fast K well under the Fast D . Stochastic has less range.
Trend: Bullish , Counter Trend Trade
Fill: 2039.00
Stop Loss: 2014.25
Target: 2036.00 3 Points , Trail a Stop.
1600
Holding Short
1605 Bail out at the market.
That is all for me today.
Copyright © 2004 - 2014
Break Even
Arthur
The Trading Tutor, L.L.C.
Exclusively for subscribers..
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The Trading Tutor's Daily Commentary
Copyright © 2004 - 2014
The Trading Tutor, L.L.C.
November 17, 2014
Exclusively for subscribers..
5
The Trading Tutor's Daily Commentary
Copyright © 2004 - 2014
The Trading Tutor, L.L.C.
November 17, 2014
Exclusively for subscribers..
6
The Trading Tutor's Daily Commentary
Copyright © 2004 - 2014
The Trading Tutor, L.L.C.
November 17, 2014
Exclusively for subscribers..
7
The Trading Tutor's Daily Commentary
November 17, 2014
Questions about this Commentary or about the Trading Tutor Services
write: TradeTutor@aol.com
Or call Arthur Ullrich 909-393-1205
For Market Calendars, go to http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.htm or
http://mam.econoday.com/ or http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/ .
For Fed Watch and FOMC info, go to http://www.FederalReserve.gov .
Information contained in the Manual and Commentary is intended for instructional purposes only and is to
explain the observations and judgment that goes into making a trade determination by the commentator
regarding trades being considered for the commentator’s own accounts. Such trades being considered
for or executed in the commentator’s own accounts may be, and often are, of different size (number of
contracts) than those shown. All information is believed to be reliable but its accuracy cannot be
guaranteed. As part of this course, the published materials from The Trading Tutor and its principals and
participants do not constitute a recommendation that the Student should buy or sell S&P 500 Futures, or
any futures, commodities or options contract. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future
results. The risk of loss is substantial in futures trading; you should therefore carefully consider whether
such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. You should read, understand and
consider the Risk Disclosure Statement that is provided as required by the CFTC by all commodities
brokers before you open a commodity trading account.
On trades shown in the Commentary there may be a risk and/or probability assessment. This
assessment is a subjective evaluation of that trade based on many factors present at the time and is
intended for instructional purposes only. It does not mean that the same signal will render the same risk
evaluation and can not be used on future trades without a complete evaluation of all conditions at the
time. Prior to entering any trade the individual trader must make and then rely on their own risk
evaluation, with the understanding and in the context that all futures trades are high risk.
There are days or times when the trades and/or observations shown in the Commentary are created in
retrospect (these trades are clearly so labeled). The following disclaimer is required by the CTFC and
may apply: HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS UNLIKE
AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE
TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF
ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL
ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN.
Nothing in this Course Manual or accompanying/supplementary Commentary is intended as an
encouragement to trade. Only the trader can make that decision based on an informed, objective
evaluation of market activity and charting characteristics. Again, the purpose of the Commentary is to
explain the observations and judgment that goes into making a trade determination by the commentator
regarding trades being considered for the commentator’s own accounts. Because the market environment
is dynamic the trader must be prepared to exercise flexibility as well as sound judgment and skill. That
judgment and skill may take many months or years to develop. Because of the financial risk associated
with trading the reader is advised to achieve consistent positive paper-trading and simulated trading
results before assuming any financial risk inherent in actual trading in the market place. Any and all
trades entered into by the Student are at the Student’s total discretion and risk.
™ Trade marks are owned by Arthur H. Ullrich and the Trading Tutor L.L.C.
Copyright © 2004 - 2014
The Trading Tutor, L.L.C.
Exclusively for subscribers..
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