CAPACITY WP2100 Derivation of Geophysical Data Requirements from Satelliteborne Platforms and Ground-Based Networks and Auxilary Data Requirements DRAFT Version 4, 21 June 2004 1 Contents 1. Introduction 2. Strategy to the Derivation of Geophysical Data Requirements 2.1 Background 2.2 The strategy to the derivation of level 2 data requirements for CAPACITY 2.3 Data Requirements Table Format 2.4 Coverage and Height Ranges 2.5 Uncertainty and Spatial and Temporal Resolution 3. Theme A: Evolution of the Ozone Layer and Related Changes in Surface UV 3.1 Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification 3.1.1 Satelliteborne Observations 3.1.2 Ground-based Observations 3.1.3 Auxilary Data Requirements 3.2 Understanding 3.2.1 Satelliteborne Observations 3.2.2 Ground-based Observations 3.2.3 Auxilary Data Requirements 3.3 Near-real-time Applications 4. 3.3.1 Satelliteborne Observations 3.3.2 Ground-based Observations 3.3.3 Auxilary Data Requirements Data Requirement Tables Theme B: Atmospheric Composition Changes with Effects on Climate 4.1 Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification 4.1.1 Satelliteborne Observations 4.1.2 Ground-based Observations 4.1.3 Auxilary Data Requirements 4.2 Understanding 4.2.1 Satelliteborne Observations 4.2.2 Ground-based Observations 4.2.3 Auxilary Data Requirements 4.3 Near-real-time Applications 5. 4.3.1 Satelliteborne Observations 4.3.2 Ground-based Observations 4.3.3 Auxilary Data Requirements Data Requirement Tables Theme C: Air Quality Degradation 5.1 Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification 5.1.1 Satelliteborne Observations 5.1.2 Ground-based Observations 5.1.3 Auxilary Data Requirements 2 5.2 Understanding 5.2.1 Satelliteborne Observations 5.2.2 Ground-based Observations 5.2.3 Auxilary Data Requirements 5.3 Near-real-time Applications 6. Summary 7. References 5.3.1 Satelliteborne Observations 5.3.2 Ground-based Observations 5.3.3 Auxilary Data Requirements 3 1. Introduction The geophysical data requirements are based on the user requirements that are documented in the WP1000 user requirements document. Other pieces of input information include: IGACO Theme report Reports from earlier ESA studies: ACE requirements, Kyoto Reports from earlier Eumetsat studies, including the NWP Position Paper on Observational Requirements for Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting in 2015-2025 Research mission proposals including ACECHEM, GeoTrope and TROC GCOS Implementation Plan (draft March 2004) 4 2. Strategy for the derivation of data requirements 2.1 Background A short summary of the structure in the WP1000 report. Environmental Themes Operational Atmospheric Chemistry Monitoring will contribute to three major environmental themes: The Evolution of the Ozone Layer and Related Changes in Surface UV The Effects of Changes in Atmospheric Composition on Climate and the Effects of Climate Change on Atmospheric Composition The Degradation of Air Quality on Local, Regional, Continental and Global Scale Drivers and added value Three overall drivers have been identified for operational spaceborne observations of atmospheric composition. These overall drivers are: (1) The provision of information on treaty verification and protocol monitoring (2) The contribution to scientific understanding and knowledge acquisition to support policy (3) The facilitation and improvement of operational applications and services, including forecasts, with near-real time information on the atmospheric composition Each of the three overall drivers contributes to policy support. The first bullet with direct delivery of required information, the second via scientific assessments and their summaries for policy makers, and the third with applications and services using actual information and forecasts on the atmospheric state for warning systems and to support real-time decision making. In addition to the three overall drivers, spaceborne operational monitoring of atmospheric composition will be valuable: To promote scientific research with unique long-term consistent data products To contribute to climate monitoring, and, in broader perspective, Earth system monitoring To improve atmospheric correction for surface remote sensing To strengthen public awareness on environmental themes User Categories and Levels of Information Different levels of information will be needed which can be associated with different user categories. - On a first level of information are the users that are involved in the monitoring of protocols and directives (Compliance User), e.g. governmental institutes on different administrative levels and international organisations associated with international treaties and protocols. 5 - - On a second level are scientists assessing the technical basis for abatement strategies, typically summarised in scientific assessment reports (Technical User) and further the scientists using the information for fundamental scientific research (Research User). On a third level of information are users that would apply the available information for operational applications and services, e.g. meteorological institutes, to improve warning systems and to increase public awareness. The requirements set by the compliance user, the technical user and for the near-real time applications and services will guide the derivation of data requirements for operational missions. At the same time, the operational missions will provide unique data to the research user. Services can serve different user categories, e.g., they may be directed to support policy makers for control strategies and security, health and environmental law enforcement, e.g. on measures to be taken in air pollution episodes. The services can also be directed to the general public for health warnings (concentrations exceeding standards, UV radiation levels) and planning of out-door activities (e.g. a Marathon in Athens) as well as for general awareness. Scientists could use actual information on the atmospheric composition for campaign planning and climate monitoring. Further several specific organisations could use the data, e.g. to improve safety of air and road transport by provision of warnings on environmental hazards (volcanic eruptions, extreme forest fires, etc.). 6 2.2 The strategy to data requirements for CAPACITY A reference for the strategy to derive quantitative requirements from high-level user requirements for CAPACITY has been the compilation of data requirements made for the IGACO theme report. Here, the strategy of IGACO is shortly evaluated. IGACO The overall objective of IGACO is to define a feasible strategy for deploying an Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observation System (IGACO), by combining ground-based, airborne and satellite observations with suitable data archives and global models. The purpose of the system is therefore to provide representative, reliable and accurate information about the changing atmosphere to those responsible for environmental policy development and to weather and environmental prediction centres. IGACO will also improve scientific understanding of the changing atmosphere. The IGACO system includes the following components: Networks of ground-based instrumentation to measure ground concentrations and vertical profiles of atmospheric constituents and UV radiation on a regular basis. Regular aircraft measurements of chemical and aerosol species in the entire troposphere, and in the upper-troposphere / lower-stratosphere (UTLS) layer, which is sensitive to climate change. Satellite based instruments preferably mounted on a combination of LEO (low-Earth orbit) polar and GEO (Geo-stationary) equatorial orbiting satellite platforms, for obtaining the required spatial and temporal resolution of the data produced. Data assimilation systems capable of integrating the measurements derived from different sources at different times and locations and able to assess the quality and consistency of the measurements. In IGACO four main atmospheric chemistry themes have been identified: Air Quality: the Globalisation of Air Pollution Oxidising Efficiency: the Atmosphere as a Waste Processor Stratospheric Ozone Shield Chemistry-Climate Interaction For each of these themes a set of required observables has been established including spatial and temporal resolution, trueness and precision. Taking into account financial and logistic constraints a group 1 set of observables has been identified that can be measured by existing or approved observation systems with some limited improvement, mainly in the integration of data. A group 2 set of observables would require development of a next generation of satellites, reinforcement of routine ground and airborne measurement and the development and implementation of a data assimilation system. CAPACITY From the IGACO report it can be concluded that for most practical applications satellite measurements are most profitable when these are assimilated into integrated observing systems, such that the satellite measurements are supported by surface-base and airborne observations, and such to create an integrated 4-dimensional view of the 7 state of the atmosphere, using atmospheric numerical models which include the best knowledge of analysed or forecasted meteorological and surface fields. This approach will be followed in CAPACITY as well. Based on the themes and user categories that have been identified in WP1000 we are able to define application areas for which data requirements can be derived. In Table 1 an overview is given of these areas; each area corresponds to one of the cells in the table. Some keywords for the application area are given. These keywords are not necessarily complete. The IGACO theme on changes in the oxidising efficiency is in the CAPACITY structure integrated in the themes on Climate-Chemistry Interactions and Air Quality. CAPACITY Environmental Theme Level of information A B C The Evolution of the Ozone Layer and Related Changes in Surface UV The Effects of Changes in Atmospheric Composition on Climate The Degradation of Air Quality on Local, Regional, Continental and Global Scale UN/ECE CLRTAP convention; EMEP and Goteborg protocols; EU NEC- and Framework Directives, CAFE Monitoring of Protocols and Directives Compliance User UNEP Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol + Amendments and Adjustments UNFCCC convention; Kyoto Protocol; EU environmental action programme (ECCP; PostKyoto) Scientific Understanding and Scientific use Technical and Research User WMO O3 assessments; The sciences of strat. chemistry, UV radiative transfer and UV effects; Source attribution IPCC Assessments; The sciences of climatechemistry interaction processes and, in general, the Earth system; Source attribution Near-Real Time Use and Public Awareness Services to various endusers Ozone Layer and surface UV forecasting (polar ozone reports); mediumrange and seasonal numerical weather forecasting Climate monitoring; atmospheric composition monitoring; NWP analysis; NWP reanalyses UNEP and EU environ. assessments; The sciences of tropospheric chemistry and air quality impacts; Source attribution Chemical weather forecast and monitoring Health and safety warnings and Air traffic management Reference code 1 2 3 Table 1. User Applications Table. Each cell in the user applications table is called an application area and can be referred to with a code: A1, A2, …, B1, …, C3 Data requirement tables are given per user category, i.e., for compliance users (A1, B1, C1), technical and research users (A2, B2, C2) and for near-real time applications and services (A3, B3, C3). For some application areas the requirements may need distinction within these user categories. In these cases additional tables with data requirements are to be given for this application area, sub-divided into different groups within this user category. [to be included: More text on the separation of requirements from satelliteborne platforms, groundbased networks and the auxiliary (model) data requirements ] 8 2.3 Data Requirements Table Format The data requirements tables per application area have the following format: Reference code Requirement Data Product Environmental Theme Driver Height Range Horizontal resolution Vertical resolution Temporal resolution Uncertainty Table 2. Format of the data requirements tables The tables summarise the data requirements from satelliteborne platforms (S), groundbased networks (G) and the auxiliary (model, observational) data requirements per application area and for Theme A, B and C, respectively. In each table first the mandatory products are listed (Priority A), followed by the desired products (Priority B). We distinguish per data product either the relevant height range (for a profile) or a total column, or a partial column (e.g. tropospheric column). Further the required horizontal, vertical and temporal resolutions are given, for which the first value is a target requirement and the second value is the threshold requirement. In the last column the overall uncertainties that can be allowed for the given (threshold) resolution requirements are presented. 2.4 Coverage and Height Ranges In general, Target is always global coverage, unless stated otherwise. For Theme C threshold coverage is Europe, incl. Balkan and Turkey and coastal waters. For the height range reference is made to the compartments of the atmosphere that are commonly distinguished in atmospheric research: In the troposphere distinction is made between the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), the Free Troposphere (FT), the Upper Troposphere (UT) and the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). In the stratosphere distinction is made between the lowermost stratosphere (LS), the middle stratosphere (MS), and the upper stratosphere (US). The mesosphere is denoted with (M). Atmospheric compartments PBL FT UT Tropics Eq. – 30° (km) Mid-Latitude 30° – 60° (km) Surface – 2 2 – 12 6 – 16 Surface - 2 2 – 12 6 – 12 9 Polar Region 60° – Pole (km) Surface - 1 1–8 6–8 12 – 16 --TTL 16 – 20 12 – 20 8 – 20 LS 20 – 35 20 – 35 20 – 35 MS 35 – 80 35 – 80 35 – 80 US+M Table 3. The atmospheric compartments that are distinguished for the height-range specifications in the data requirement tables. The boundaries have been set at fixed altitudes and latitudes for simplicity and only represent an approximation to the mean state neglecting atmospheric variability. [Figure to be included: A latitude-height figure with atmospheric domains] The PBL typically extends up to less than 2 km above the Earth’s surface. The PBL is usually thicker above continents than above oceans. The FT is defined as the region between the top of the PBL and the tropopause. The tropopause in polar regions is typically at an altitude of ~8 km, and at tropical latitudes near ~16 km. The TTL is located in the FT between about 12 and 16 km at tropical latitudes. The UT refers to tropospheric air above about ~6 km altitude. The LS refers to stratospheric air below ~20 km altitude. The MS represents the middle stratosphere between ~20 km (i.e. excluding the lowermost stratosphere) and ~35 km. The upper stratosphere plus mesosphere are defined to extent from ~35 km up to ~80 km altitude globally. 2.5 Uncertainty and Spatial and Temporal Resolution In data assimilation systems it is in the first place the (assumed) uncertainty of the measurement that determines the potential impact on the outcome of the assimilation system. Therefore, the requirements on uncertainty are typically the most quantitative requirements, at least in comparison to the requirements on spatial and temporal resolution. However, a complicating factor for the assessment of the uncertainty requirements is that this number contains both a random and a systematic component, of which the latter is should be established by a long-term validation with independent measurements. Prolonged data sets with stable retrievals and limited instrumental drift during the mission lifetime may allow a larger uncertainty on individual retrievals, because in the end the large number of available observations will help to reduce systematic and random errors. Also enhanced temporal or spatial sampling may allow a larger uncertainty on individual retrievals. However, the extent to which enhanced sampling could reduce the uncertainty will depend on the relative contribution of the random component to the overall uncertainty and on the error correlation lengths in time and space (see below). Sampling requirements are not specified in the data requirement tables. Instead we derive spatial and temporal resolution requirements. The resolution requirements typically reflect the variability of this parameter in time and space, together with the time- and spatial scale of the atmospheric processes relevant for this parameter. To a certain extent the sampling is constrained by the uncertainty and resolution requirements. 10 An advantage of satelliteborne observations over in-situ measurements is that the representation error is typically smaller. We estimate that for satellite measurements the representation errors will likely contribute less to the uncertainty because the satellite pixel sizes and model grid sizes are typically of the same order of magnitude. For in-situ measurements the representation error will contribute more to the overall uncertainty. It is noted here that the impact of observations with a certain uncertainty on a data assimilation system will also depend on the (assumed) model uncertainties. These will typically vary from time to time and place to place. This is a complicating factor that has not been taken into account in the derivation of the uncertainty requirements. It can be anticipated however that at locations and times with small model uncertainty (e.g. because in-situ observations are available) the sampling requirements can be relaxed to a certain extent. The horizontal resolution requirements are somewhat less quantitative than the uncertainty requirements and are typically at least a factor 2-3 smaller than the error correlation length in the model that is used in the assimilation of the observable. In fact, the assimilation will combine the available observations within the area defined by the model error correlation length. These error correlation lengths are typically a function of altitude in the atmosphere and are mainly determined by the spatial scales of the relevant atmospheric processes and by the resulting spatial variabilities in the observables. Typically, the correlation length decreases from several hundreds of kilometers in the stratosphere to several tens of kilometers in the lower troposphere and even smaller in the PBL. However, in some cases the observation of smaller scales than as those defined by the model error correlation length might be very useful as well, e.g. , to validate the model on the cascade of processes as a function of spatial scale. The vertical resolution requirements are mostly related to the gradients of the observable in the vertical direction. In the middle and upper stratosphere the distributions of the observables vary rather smoothly. In contrast, in the UTLS the vertical gradients (and thus error correlation lengths) can be very steep and highly variable in time, leading to much more stringent requirements. The vertical gradients in the troposphere typically depend on the synoptic situation and are mainly controlled by convective events. Note that, in contrast to turbulent mixing, convection can either steepen or smooth gradients. Temporal resolution requirements can in principle be determined from examination of the anomaly correlations that can be calculated in an assimilation system. One could argue that if the anomaly correlation drops below a certain predefined threshold, the time evolution as described by the model is not sufficiently adequate and a new analysis based on observations, is needed. Following this argument the required update frequency would determine the required temporal resolution for an observable. However, it is difficult to estimate the extent to which future (and likely improved) models are able to describe the time evolution of the atmosphere. Current assimilation models have already proven skill for the prediction of stratospheric transport up to more than a week ahead. Model skill to describe the evolution of tropospheric transport is likely much more limited because of the intermittent nature of several processes. Note that often the predictability of the meteorological variables (wind, temperature) is limiting model skills. 11 Here, instead of using extensive studies on the anomaly correlation or the model error growth per time step, the temporal resolution requirements for the observables are derived from the expected variability in time of the observable. For example, at the higher altitudes the observables with a diurnal cycle should be observed at least twice daily (e.g. day/night, etc.), while for the other observables daily to weekly observations would probably suffice. The temporal variability typically increases in the lower troposphere and planetary boundary layer, as does the complexity of models to describe the time evolution of the atmosphere. Therefore, the temporal resolution at which the observations are needed increases at lower altitudes. Depending on the relevant atmospheric processes and the geographic location the required temporal resolution in the PBL will vary from several times daily to less than one hour. Finally it is noted that the spatial and temporal resolutions that are or will be used in present-day and future atmospheric models play only a (minor) role for the resolution requirements, as the requirements are determined in the first place by the scales of atmospheric processes. These processes may be either resolved or sub-grid in a model. In conclusion, the uncertainties given for each of the observables should be read as the maximum uncertainty that is allowed in order to obtain information on the observable on the specified spatial and temporal resolution. If the uncertainty is reached with a single retrieval or with a combination of retrievals will depend on the sampling and measurement techniques used. Requirements for these have not been specified. 12 3. Theme A: Evolution of Stratospheric Ozone and Related Changes in Surface UV 3.1 Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification A1 Main driving user requirements A1 Monitoring of the thickness of the ozone layer and its evolution in time Monitoring of the trends in the levels of surface UV radiation Monitoring of the trends in the concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) Concentration monitoring for the derivation of ODS emission trends Not yet included: Concentration monitoring for the detection of ODS emissions(operational or research?) Monitoring of ozone profile trends Attribution of total ozone changes to stratospheric ozone changes Attribution of stratospheric ozone changes to ‘Equivalent Chlorine’ loading changes Attribution of UV changes to stratospheric ozone changes Notes: - Based on experience with GOME it is assumed that a 3%(?) uncertainty (mainly systematic errors) on individual total ozone columns available every 3 days will be sufficient to arrive at a 1%/yr trend monitoring (zonally averaged monthly-means). - Zonal averages suffice except for ozone and UV itself and for the detection of ClO and BrO enhancements - It is assumed that weekly representative surface measurements per 10 deg latitude band, together with weekly total columns, suffice for the determination of total (equivalent) organic chlorine in the atmosphere and the derivation of trends in CFC concentrations and trends in their emissions. Typically zonally averaged values of ~2% are needed for the CFCs and other long-lived ODS, and ~5% for the HCFCs which are subject to larger downward trends in the 2010-2020 time period. - In fact, all ODS that are mentioned in the protocols should be monitored with priority A (Full lists are given in the WMO ozone assessment reports). In the data requirement tables we have restricted ourselves so far to the most abundant ODS, and also priority has been given to those ODS for which surface-based historical records are already available (proven measurement techniques). - Ozone profile information is needed in order to be able to make distinction between total ozone changes, tropospheric ozone changes and LS, MS and/or US+M ozone changes. - For a selection of chlorine compounds profile information in the LS and MS is needed in order to be able to determine total organic chlorine. - Requirements for ClO and BrO are set for enhanced levels because monitoring of these short-lived gases is only relevant for the detection of events with excessive ozone loss (do we really need BrO here, or only ClO suffices?) which may need reporting - HNO3 is needed to observe long-term changes in denitrification 13 3.1.1 Satelliteborne Observations A1 Global coverage A1-S Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification on the Evolution of the Ozone Layer and Related Changes in Surface UV Radiation Requirement Driver Height Range Data Product Priority A O3 UV Index UV dose Priority B O3 --- 24 / 24*3 Daily at noon UV Trend Monitoring Surface 50 / 100 -- Daily dose 1% 0.5 ( UVI<=5 ) 10% ( UVI > 5) 0.5 kJ.m-2 O3 Monitoring \ Attribution to height ranges LS MS US+M Troph. column LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS 50 / 100 100 / 200 100 / 200 10 / 50 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 2 2 3 -1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 24 24 24 24 12 12 12 12 24 24 12 12 12 12 24 24 12 12 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 50% 50% 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 50% 50% 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) Eq. Cl Trend Monitoring BrO enhanced HNO3 Uncertainty 50 / 100 50 / 100 ClONO2 BrONO2 Temporal resolution (hours) Total column Surface Eq. Cl Trend Monitoring HBr Vertical resolution (km) O3 Trend Monitoring UV Trend Monitoring HCl ClO enhanced Horizontal resolution (km) Attribution (Cl component) Detection/counting of loss events Eq. Cl Trend Monitoring Eq. Cl Trend Monitoring Attribution (Br component) Denitrification 14 / part. column / part. column / part. column / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / part. column / part. column / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / part. column / part. column / 3 / 3 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 3.1.2 Ground-based Observations A1 Global representative network for source gases; Network for the validation of the satelliteborne observations; ZA : zonal average Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification on the Evolution of the Ozone Layer and Related Changes in A1-G Surface UV Radiation Requirement Driver Height Range Data Product Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty 3% 0.5 ( UVI<=5 ) 10% ( UVI > 5) 0.5 kJ.m-2 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) Priority A O3 UV Index Validation Validation Total column Surface --- UV dose CFC-11 Validation Trend CFC-12 Trend CFC-113 Trend HCFC-22 Trend HCFC-141b Trend HCFC-142b Trend CCl4 Trend CH3CCl3 Trend Halon 1211 Trend Halon 1301 Trend Surface Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column -PBL -PBL -PBL -PBL -PBL -PBL -PBL -PBL -PBL -PBL -- 24 / 24*3 Daily at noon Daily dose 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 Priority B O3 Validation UT LS MS US+M Troph. column LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS 2 2 2 3 -2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12 12 CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CH3Cl CH3Br Halon 1211 HNO3 O3 Trend Attribution ODS Trend / validation O3 Trend Attribution ODS Trend / validation O3 Trend Attribution ODS Trend / validation O3 Trend Attribution ODS Trend / validation O3 Trend Attribution ODS Trend / validation O3 Trend Attribution ODS Trend / validation Denitrification / validation 15 / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / part. column / 3 / 3 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 3.1.3 Auxilary Requirements A1 For the ozone trend monitoring additional information is needed on the meteorological state of the stratosphere (temperature, pressure, dynamics). This information is assumed to be available from the analyses of numerical weather prediction models. For the attribution of UV changes to O3 changes we need the global distribution and possible changes over time in: 3-D cloud optical and geometric parameters in UV (optical depth, cloud extent, phase functions) 3-D aerosol optical parameters in UV (optical depth, single scattering albedo, phase function) 2-D UV surface albedo 3-D distribution of minor absorbing gases in UV (mainly NO2 and SO2) The above parameters are assumed to be derived from the analyses of numerical weather prediction models. Further, for the attribution of UV changes to ozone the UV extraterrestrial solar spectrum, covering at least the 200-320 nm spectral range, is needed, including its time-variations. 16 3.2 Scientific Understanding A2 Main driving user requirements A2 (input data to ozone assessments and long-term science questions): Understanding of the state of the ozone layer and its evolution in time Understanding of the changes in surface UV radiation levels Understanding of the distribution of the ozone depleting substances and the trends in their concentrations Concentration monitoring for the detection of (remaining) emissions of ozone depleting substances (or these reqs to A1?) Notes: The requirements are partly based on ACE requirements study: requirements for ‘ozone recovery’ for the chemical and radiative processes and requirements for ‘chemistry-climate interactions’ for the dynamical effects on ozone layer evolution The short-lived compounds such as HOx and NOx radicals are excluded for operational monitoring (process studies are typically excluded) and it is assumed here that the available chemistry schemes are of sufficient quality to be able to derive concentrations of short-lived species from observations of the long-lived compounds. CH3CCl3 is neglected (it is assumed to be of minor relevance after 2010 for ozone depletion), even with the possibility of small ongoing emissions in Europe as have been reported by Krol et al. (2003). The possibility to monitor the effects of volcanic eruptions on the ozone layer evolution is included (SO2 enhanced, aerosol type) Temporal resolution threshold in LS is 3*24 hours and not weekly to better resolve synoptic variability, weekly is the threshold for MS, US and M. Spatial resolution threshold is typically ~100 km in LS (< 20 km altitude). This mainly reflects the need to observe horizontal variability in the tropopause region. A few kilometers bove the actual tropopause the spatial requirement can typically be relaxed to the MS requirement of ~200 km. HNO3 is needed to observe possible long-term changes in denitrification 17 3.2.1 Satelliteborne Observations A2 Global coverage A2-S Scientific Understanding of the Evolution of the Ozone Layer and Related Changes in Surface UV Radiation Requirement Driver Height Range Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty UT LS MS US+M Troph. column Total column Surface 20 / 100 50 / 100 100 / 200 100 / 200 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 100 1 1 2 3 ---- 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 Daily at noon Surface LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS US LS MS US LS MS US LS MS LS MS LS 50 / 100 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 Data Product Priority A O3 Ozone column trend Ozone profile trend UV Index UV response to O3 UV dose CFC-11 UV response to O3 Trend CFC-12 Trend HCFC-22 Trend ClO enhanced O3 loss BrO enhanced O3 loss N2O Ozone-Climate / Tracer H2O Ozone-Climate CH4 Ozone-Climate / Tracer HNO3 Dinitrification changes Aerosol surface density O3 loss PSCoccurrence Priority B CFC-113 O3 loss Trend HCFC-123 Trend HCFC-141b Trend HCFC-142b Trend CCl4 Trend HCl Trend 18 / / / / 3 3 3 5 -1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 5 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 Daily dose 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 20% 10% 20% 20% 20% 10% 0.5 ( UVI<=5 ) 10% ( UVI > 5) 0.5 kJ.m-2 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 50% 50% 50% 50% 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 100% 100% < 10% mis-assignments 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 / / / / / / / / / / / 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 20% (ZA) / / / / / / / / / / / 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 ClONO2 Trend CH3Cl Trend CH3Br Trend Halon 1211 Trend Halon 1301 Trend Halon 2402 Trend SO2 enhanced O3 loss Aerosol type O3 loss MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 19 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 50% 50% < 10% mis-assignments 3.2.2 Ground-based Observations A2 Global representative network for monitoring of the ODS source gases; Network for the validation of the satelliteborne observations in A2-S A2-G Scientific Understanding of the Evolution of the Ozone Layer and Related Changes in Surface UV Radiation Requirement Driver Height Range Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty UT LS MS US+M Troph. column Total column Surface 20 / 100 50 / 100 100 / 200 100 / 200 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 100 1 1 2 3 ---- 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 Daily at noon Surface Surface Total column LS MS Surface Total column LS MS Surface Total column LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS US LS MS US LS MS US LS MS LS MS LS 50 / 100 Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 -PBL -1 / 3 2 / 3 PBL -1 / 3 2 / 3 Daily dose 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 24 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 20% 10% 20% 20% 20% 10% 0.5 ( UVI<=5 ) 10% ( UVI > 5) 0.5 kJ.m-2 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 50% 50% 50% 50% 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 10% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 100% 100% < 10% mis-assignments Surface Total column LS MS Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 PBL -1 / 3 2 / 3 24 24 12 12 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) Data Product Priority A O3 validation UV Index validation UV dose CFC-11 validation Validation / Trend monitoring CFC-12 Validation / Trend monitoring HCFC-22 Validation / Trend Monitoring ClO enhanced Validation BrO enhanced Validation N2O Validation H2O Validation CH4 Validation HNO3 Validation Aerosol surface density Validation PSCoccurrence Priority B CFC-113 Validation Validation / Trend Monitoring -1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 20 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 3 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 5 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 / / / / 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 HCFC-123 HCFC-141b HCFC-142b Validation / Trend Monitoring Validation / Trend Monitoring Validation / Trend Monitoring CCl4 Validation / Trend Monitoring HCl Validation / Trend Monitoring Validation / Trend Monitoring Validation / Trend Monitoring ClONO2 CH3Cl CH3Br Validation / Trend Monitoring Halon 1211 Validation / Trend Monitoring Halon 1301 Validation / Trend Monitoring Halon 2402 Validation / Trend Monitoring SO2 enhanced Validation / Trend Monitoring Validation / Trend Monitoring Aerosol type Surface Total column LS MS Surface Total column LS MS Surface Total column LS MS Surface Total column LS MS LS MS LS MS Surface Total column LS MS Surface Total column Surface Total column LS MS Surface Total column LS MS Surface Total column LS MS LS MS LS MS Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 Per 10° lat Per 10° lat 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 100 / 200 -1 / 3 2 / 3 -1 / 3 2 / 3 -1 / 3 2 / 3 PBL -1 / 3 2 / 3 1 / 3 2 / 3 1 / 3 2 / 3 PBL -1 / 3 2 / 3 PBL -1 / 3 2 / 3 PBL -1 / 3 2 / 3 PBL -1 / 3 2 / 3 PBL -1 / 3 2 / 3 1 / 3 2 / 3 1 / 3 2 / 3 24 24 12 12 24 24 12 12 24 24 12 12 24 24 12 12 12 12 12 12 24 24 12 12 24 24 12 12 24 24 12 12 24 24 12 12 24 24 12 12 12 12 12 12 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*7 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 24*3 24*7 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 20% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 5% (ZA) 50% 50% < 10% mis-assignments 3.2.3 Auxililary Requirements A2 3-D meteorological variables on temperature, pressure, wind, cloud parameters, surface albedo and radiative fluxes, (more?) to be delivered by analyses of numerical weather prediction models 21 3.3 Near-Real Time Use Main driving user requirements A3: Ozone Layer and surface UV radiation forecasting; unpredictable events (mini-holes, polar vortex break-up etc), polar ozone reports Better representation of the stratospheric transport, chemistry and radiation budgets in numerical weather prediction models to improve weather predictions, especially on medium-range and longer time scales. Notes: O3, H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O: radiatively active gases, aerosol extinction 2 CH4 + H2O: conserved quantity in the stratosphere CO2, SF6, N2O and CH4: tracers suitable for stratospheric transport (not all of them are needed at the same time) CO and HNO3 in UTLS: use of O3-CO and O3-HNO3 correlations. HCl in LS: idem, use of O3-HCl correlations (LS only) PSC occurrence (parameterised) heterogeneous ozone loss Specific NRT requirements for polar ozone reports are not yet included. These are according to John Remedios: HNO3, ClO, PSCs. 22 3.3.1 Satelliteborne Observations A3 Global coverage A3-S Near-Real Time Use of Information on the Evolution of the Ozone Layer and Related Changes in Surface UV Radiation Requirement Driver Height Range Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty UT LS MS US+M Troph. column Total column Surface 20 / 100 50 / 100 100 / 200 100 / 200 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 100 0.5 0.5 2 / 3 / ---- 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 Daily at noon Surface LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS US LS MS 50 / 100 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 -1 / 2 / 1 / 2 / 1 / 2 / 1 / 2 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 0.5 1 / Daily dose 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% 0.5 ( UVI<=5 ) 10% ( UVI > 5) 0.5 kJ.m-2 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 10% 20% 20% 20% 100% 100% LS LS UT+LS LS Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 50 / 100 Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 0.5 / 2 Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 6 / 24*3 20% 20% 20% < 10% mis-assignments Data Product Priority A O3 Forecast UV Index Forecast UV dose H2O Forecast Strat H2O CH4 Tracer / Strat H2O CO2 Tracer SF6 Tracer N2O Tracer Aerosol extinction coef. Potential ozone loss Priority B HCl HNO3 CO PSC occurrence ST exchange ST exchange ST exchange Potential ozone loss 23 / 2 / 2 3 5 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 5 / 2 3 3.3.2 Ground-based Observations Network for the validation of each of the satelliteborne observations Ozone sondes NRT data from ground-based networks could be useful to improve ozone and UV predictions Network for NRT delivery of stratospheric profiles of H2O, N2O, CH4, CO2 and tracer (SF6, HDO, HF) UTLS operational aircraft measurements of O3, H2O, CO, HNO3 and HCl for ST exchange processes A3-G Near-Real Time Use of Information on the Evolution of the Ozone Layer and Related Changes in Surface UV Radiation Requirement Driver Height Range Data Product Priority A O3 Forecast / Validation UV Index Forecast / Validation UV dose H2O Forecast / Validation Forecast / Validation CH4 Validation CO2 Validation SF6 Validation N2O Validation Aerosol extinction coef. Validation HCl HNO3 CO PSC occurrence ST exchange ST exchange ST exchange Potential ozone loss UT LS MS US+M Troph. column Total column Surface Surface LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS LS MS US LS MS LS LS UT+LS LS Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty 20 / 100 50 / 100 100 / 200 100 / 200 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 100 0.5 0.5 2 / 3 / ---- 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 Daily at noon 50 / 100 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 200 100 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 50 / 100 -1 / 2 2 / 3 1 / 2 2 / 3 1 / 2 2 / 3 1 / 2 2 / 3 1 / 2 2 / 3 3 / 5 0.5 / 2 1 / 3 Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 0.5 / 2 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% 0.5 ( UVI<=5 ) 10% ( UVI > 5) 0.5 kJ.m-2 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 10% 20% 20% 20% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% < 10% mis-assignments / 2 / 2 3 5 Daily dose 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 Co-located with O3 6 / 24*3 3.3.3 Auxililary Requirements 3-D meteorological variables on temperature, pressure, wind, cloud parameters, surface albedo and radiative fluxes, (more?) to be delivered by analyses of numerical weather prediction models 24 4. Theme B: Composition Changes with Effects on Climate 4.1 Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification Main driving user requirements B1: The radiative forcing of climate and the changes in forcing over time (trends in GHGs and aerosols) The abundance and, if relevant, the spatial distribution of the forcing agents (or their precursors in the case of tropospheric ozone) Concentration monitoring for the detection and attribution of the emissions of the forcing agents Notes: No differences in priorities have been identified The surface measurements are principally used for trend monitoring, which require high precisions, although on the zonal (monthly) means. Weekly-representative observations of long-lived compounds typically suffice to arrive at monthly means For the selection of ozone depleting halogen compounds we have limit ourselves to the three Montreal gases that are responsible for the majority of climate forcing by halogenated compounds (CFC-11, CFC-12 and HCFC-22) The six gases that are regulated under the unratified Kyoto protocol are CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC-134a, CF4 and SF6. All regulated gases need monitoring from a surface-based network. Emissions from combined surface-based and spaceborne observations only for the somewhat more variable gases CO2, CH4, CO, NO2, and aerosols. Other emissions (N2O, HFC-134a, CF4 and SF6) solely derived from surface-based network because of the very limited variability in their concentrations. Driving the latter requirements is the determination of the emission trend, not the operational detection and attribution of emissions from surface data. For tropospheric aerosols we only consider radiative properties and then we mainly need to distinguish between the extinction and absorption optical depth. Monitoring of the height distribution of tropospheric aerosols is considered of minor relevance. Enhanced aerosol in the stratosphere is required for the detection of volcanic plumes and their decay in time. For the ozone forcing we distinguish between (trends in) tropospheric and total ozone. Tropospheric NO2 and CO (tropospheric columns and profiles) are included as the two major ozone precursor gases whose emissions (NOx and CO) may become subjected to regulation in the future if climate policy measures are to be taken to reduce the radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone. Surface-based concentrations of short-lived NO2 and aerosols are considered insufficient to be representative for global scale monitoring. The vertical resolution in the troposphere of 5 km means: three points in the tropics and two points outside Threshold temporal resolution of CO2 columns is 12 hours (target 6h) in order to resolve diurnal cycle (‘breathing of the vegetation’). The horizontal resolution requirement for the CO2 and CH4 total columns is similar to the tropospheric aerosol, CO and NO2 column requirements. These spatial requirements are related to emission detection and attribution, not to sampling. … 25 4.1.1 Satelliteborne Observations B1 Global coverage B1-S Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification of Composition Changes with Effects on Climate and Climate Change affecting Atmospheric Composition Requirement Driver Height Range Data Product Priority A CO2 CH4 O3 Emissions Emissions Radiative forcing NO2 Emissions CO Emissions Aerosol OD Aer. Extinction (enhanced) Radiative forcing Aer. absorption OD Radiative forcing Total column Total column FT Troposph column Total column FT Troposph column FT Troposph column Troposphere LS MS Troposphere Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty 10 10 10 10 50 10 10 10 10 10 50 50 10 --2 / 5 --2 / 5 -2 / 5 6 24 12 12 24 12 12 12 12 6 12 12 6 0.5% 2% 20% 25% 10% or 2% (ZA) 50% 1.3·(10)15 cm-2 20% 25% 0.05 0.1 0.1 0.01 / / / / / / / / / / / / / 50 50 50 50 100 50 50 50 50 50 100 200 50 -1 / part. column 2 / part. column -- 26 / 12 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 4.1.2 Ground-based Observations B1 Network for the monitoring of GHGs and aerosols; Network for the validation of the satelliteborne observations specified in B1-S Next to validation is the main driver the trend in the concentrations and emissions and not the operational detection and attribution of emissions on the basis op surface measurements. - Surface-based measurements of surface concentrations and total columns of Kyoto gases, O3, CO and CFC-11, CFC-12 and HCFC-22. - For O3 and NO2 a tropospheric profile. Tropospheric column threshold for NO2. - Aerosol network: Distinction between tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol is required in the presence of significant volcanic aerosol. B1-G Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification of Composition Changes with Effects on Climate and Climate Change affecting Atmospheric Composition Requirement Driver Height Range Data Product Priority A CO2 CH4 N2O SF6 CF4 HFC-134a O3 NO2 CO CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 Aerosol OD Aer. Extinction (enhanced) Aer. absorption OD Trend Trend / validation Trend Trend / validation Trend Trend Trend Trend Trend Trend Trend Trend Trend Radiative forcing Trend / validation Trend / validation Emission / validation Emission / validation Trend Emission / validation Emission / validation Trend Trend Trend Trend Trend Trend Emis./ Rad. forcing / valid. Radiative forcing Radiative forcing Radiative forcing Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface FT Troposph column Total column FT Troposph column Surface FT Troposph column Surface Total column Surface Total column Surface Total column Troposphere LS MS Troposphere Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty Per 10° lat. Per 10° lat. Per 10° lat. Per 10° lat. Per 10° lat. Per 10° lat Per 10° lat. Per 10° lat Per 10° lat. Per 10° lat Per 10° lat. Per 10° lat Per 5° lat. 10 / 50 10 / 50 50 / 100 10 / 50 10 / 50 Per 5° lat. 10 / 50 10 / 50 Per 10° lat. Per 10° lat Per 10° lat. Per 10° lat Per 10° lat. Per 10° lat 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 10 / 50 -------------2 / 5 --2 / 5 --2 / 5 24 6 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12 12 12 24 12 12 12 12 12 24 24 24 24 24 24 6 12 12 6 2% (ZA) 0.5% 2% (ZA) 2% 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 2% (ZA) 20% 25% 10% or 2% (ZA) 50% 1.3·(10)15 cm-2 2% (ZA) 20% 25% 2% (ZA) 2% 2% (ZA) 2% 5% (ZA) 5% 0.05 0.1 0.1 0.01 -------1 / part. column 2 / part. column -- / 24*7 / 12 / 24*7 / 24*3 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*7 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*7 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 / 24*3 4.1.3 Auxililary Requirements B1 3-D meteorological variables on temperature, pressure, wind, cloud parameters, surface albedo and radiative fluxes, (more?) to be delivered by analyses of numerical weather prediction models 27 4.2 Scientific Understanding Main driving user requirements B2: Understanding the radiative forcing of climate and the changes in forcing over time, including possible volcanic eruptions Understanding the stratospheric water vapour budget and monitoring of the H2O trend in the UTLS and above. Understanding the abundance, evolution, and, if relevant, spatial distribution of the forcing agents Understanding the role of the ozone layer evolution on climate change Understanding the role of changes in the oxidising capacity of the troposphere for climate change Understanding the role of possible changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation on climate change Concentration monitoring for the detection and attribution of (changes in) the emissions of the forcing agents and their precursors Notes: - Different species have been added to the tables with driver ‘ tracer’. In fact not all tracers are needed. Typically needed is the tracer that can be observed most accurately. - [much more notes to be added] 28 4.2.1 Satelliteborne Observations B2 Global coverage Scientific Understanding of Composition Changes with Effects on Climate and Climate Change affecting Atmospheric B2-S Composition Requirement Driver Height Range Data Product Priority A O3 H2O Rad. forcing /Ox. Capacity / Tracer / O3 recovery Rad. forcing /Ox. Capacity / Tracer / O3 recovery / Strat. H2O budget CO2* Rad forcing / tracer CH4* Rad. forcing /ox. Capacity / Tracer / Strat H2O budget N2O* Rad forcing / tracer / N budget CO O3 and CO2 precursor NO2 (NOx) CH2O HNO3 O3 and aerosol precursor Ox. Capacity N budget HCl CH3Cl Ozone recovery Ozone recovery CH3Br Ozone recovery SF6* Tracer PBL FT UT LS MS US+M PBL FT UT LS MS US+M MS Total Column LS MS Total Column LS MS US Total Column PBL FT UT LS PBL FT UT LS MS PBL FT UT PBL FT UT LS MS LS LS MS LS MS LS MS Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty 5 / 10 10 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 100 100 / 200 1 / 10 10 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 100 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 100 10 / 50 5 / 50 10 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 5 / 10 10 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 5 / 10 10 / 50 20 / 100 5 / 50 10 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 -1 / 0.5 0.5 1 / 3 / -1 / 0.5 0.5 1 / 3 / 1 / -1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / 1 / --1 / 1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 1 / 12 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24 12 / 24 12 / 24 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 30% 25% 20% 10% 20% 20% 50% 30% 20% 10% 20% 20% 10% 0.5% 20% 20% 2% 20% 20% 20% 2% 30% 30% 20% 20% 30% 30% 50% 50% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 29 column / 2 / 2 3 5 3 / 2 / 2 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 HDO* Tracer HF* Tracer CFC-11 Rad. Forcing CFC-12 Rad. Forcing HCFC-22 Rad. Forcing Cirrus OD Aerosol OD Rad. Forcing Rad. Forcing Aer. Extinction (enhanced) Aerosol absorption OD Rad. Forcing US LS MS US LS MS US LS MS LS MS UT LS MS UT PBL Troposphere LS MS PBL Troposphere 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 10 / 100 5 / 20 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 5 / 20 10 / 20 3 / 5 1 / 3 1 / 3 3 / 5 1 / 3 1 / 3 3 / 5 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 ---1 / part. column 2 / part. column --- 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 100% 0.05 0.05 0.1 0.1 0.01 PBL FT UT PBL/FT UT LS MS PBL/FT UT PBL/FT UT PBL/FT UT LS MS LS MS LS MS PBL FT LS MS PBL Troposphere UT 5 / 10 10 / 50 20 / 100 5 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 5 / 50 20 / 100 5 / 50 20 / 100 5 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 5 / 10 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 5 / 20 10 / 20 10 / 100 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 ---- 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 50% 50% 30% 30% 30% 30% 50% 50% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 50% 50% 50% 50% ? ? ? Priority B H2O2 N2O5 PAN Ox. Capacity N budget N budget CH3COCH3 Ox. Capacity C2H6 Ox. Capacity ClO enhanced Ozone Recovery ClONO2 Ozone Recovery BrO enhanced Ozone Recovery SO2 enhanced Volcanoes Aerosol phase function Cirrus phase function Volcanoes Rad. Forcing *tracers (only the ones are needed that are most accurately observed) 30 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / / / / / / / 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 4.2.2 Ground-based and In-Situ Observations B2 Network for the validation of the satelliteborne observations mentioned in B2-S, including: Ozone sonde/LIDAR network Stratospheric profiles of long-lived trace gases Radiosonde and other networks for H2O (GPS?) and temperature Aerosol network (AERONET) UTLS operational aircraft measurements of O3, CO, NOx and H2O B2-G Scientific Understanding of Composition Changes with Effects on Climate and Climate Change affecting Atmospheric Composition Requirement Driver Height Range Data Product Priority A O3 H2O Rad. forcing /Ox. Capacity / Tracer / O3 recovery Rad. forcing /Ox. Capacity / Tracer / O3 recovery / Strat. H2O budget CO2* Rad forcing / tracer CH4* Rad. forcing /ox. Capacity / Tracer / Strat H2O budget N2O* Rad forcing / tracer / N budget CO O3 and CO2 precursor ST exchange NO2 (NOx) CH2O HNO3 O3 and aerosol precursor Ox. Capacity N budget ST exchange PBL FT UT LS MS US+M PBL FT UT LS MS US+M MS Total Column LS MS Total Column LS MS US Total Column PBL FT UT LS PBL FT UT LS MS PBL FT UT PBL FT UT Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty 5 / 10 10 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 100 100 / 200 1 / 10 10 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 100 100 / 200 50 / 100 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 100 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 100 10 / 50 5 / 50 10 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 5 / 10 10 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 5 / 10 10 / 50 20 / 100 5 / 50 10 / 50 20 / 100 -1 / 0.5 0.5 1 / 3 / -1 / 0.5 0.5 1 / 3 / 1 / -1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / 1 / --1 / 1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 1 / 12 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24 12 / 24 12 / 24 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 30% 25% 20% 10% 20% 20% 50% 30% 20% 10% 20% 20% 10% 0.5% 20% 20% 2% 20% 20% 20% 2% 30% 30% 20% 20% 30% 30% 50% 50% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 20% 31 column / 2 / 2 3 5 3 / 2 / 2 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 HCl CH3Cl Ozone Recovery / ST exchange Ozone recovery CH3Br Ozone recovery SF6* Tracer HDO* Tracer HF* Tracer CFC-11 Rad. Forcing CFC-12 Rad. Forcing HCFC-22 Rad. Forcing Cirrus OD Aerosol OD Rad. Forcing Rad. Forcing Aer. Extinction (enhanced) Aerosol absorption OD Rad. Forcing LS MS LS 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 20% 20% 20% LS MS LS MS LS MS US LS MS US LS MS US LS MS LS MS UT LS MS UT PBL Troposphere LS MS PBL Troposphere 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 10 / 100 5 / 20 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 5 / 20 10 / 20 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 3 / 5 1 / 3 1 / 3 3 / 5 1 / 3 1 / 3 3 / 5 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 ---1 / part. column 2 / part. column --- 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 100% 0.05 0.05 0.1 0.1 0.01 PBL FT UT PBL/FT UT LS MS PBL/FT UT PBL/FT UT PBL/FT UT LS MS LS MS LS MS PBL FT LS MS PBL Troposphere UT 5 / 10 10 / 50 20 / 100 5 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 5 / 50 20 / 100 5 / 50 20 / 100 5 / 50 20 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 5 / 10 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 5 / 20 10 / 20 10 / 100 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 ---- 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 6 / 24 6 / 24 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 50% 50% 30% 30% 30% 30% 50% 50% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 50% 50% 50% 50% ? ? ? Priority B H2O2 N2O5 PAN Ox. Capacity N budget N budget CH3COCH3 Ox. Capacity C2H6 Ox. Capacity ClO enhanced Ozone Recovery ClONO2 Ozone Recovery BrO enhanced Ozone Recovery SO2 enhanced Volcanoes Aerosol phase function Cirrus phase function Volcanoes Rad. Forcing 32 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / / / / / / / 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 4.2.3 Auxilary Requirements B2 3-D meteorological variables on temperature, pressure, wind, cloud parameters, surface albedo and radiative fluxes, (more?) to be delivered by analyses of numerical weather prediction models 33 4.3 Near-Real Time Use Main driving user requirements B3: Climate monitoring The assimilation of satellite observations in NWP models and GCMs for improved representation of the stratosphere (needed for seasonal forecasts) and for the inclusion of stratospheric composition in reanalyses and present-day climate runs Validation of climate and NWP models for present-day atmospheric conditions to confidently use these models for scenario studies on future climate Notes: Near-real time in the order of hours only needed for the assimilation in NWPs; For climate monitoring and validation the delivery constraints can be relaxed to weeks/months. In the PBL aerosols, H2O, CO2 and O3 are required to perform climate simulations In the free troposphere the H2O profile is required with priority A, together with the column of tropospheric ozone (threshold) and the aerosol and cirrus optical depths On the long-lived gases total column information is required to determine their long-term evolution Stratospheric profiles are required for H2O, O3, CH4, N2O SF6/HDO/HF are included as tracers, not as radiative active compounds. Either one of them could do the job. The most accurate observations need to prevail. 34 4.3.1 Satelliteborne Observations B3 Global coverage B3-S Near-Real Time Use of Information on Composition Changes with Effects on Climate and Climate Change affecting Atmospheric Composition Requirement Driver Height Range Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty UT 5 / 50 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 5 / 50 10 / 50 10 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 5 / 50 50 / 200 50 / 200 1 / 20 50 / 100 50 / 200 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 5 / 10 5 / 50 5 / 10 5 / 50 10 / 100 --0.5 1 / 3 / -0.5 0.5 0.5 1 / 3 / -1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / 3 / -1 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 3 / ------ 6 / 24 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*7 6 / 24*7 1 / 6 1 / 6 1 / 6 3 / 24 6 / 24*7 6 / 24*7 6 / 12 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 1 / 12 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 1 / 6 3 / 24 1 / 6 3 / 24 6 / 24 30% 25% 10% 20% 20% 50% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 2% 20% 20% 2% 20% 20% 20% 2% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 100% PBL Troposphere LS MS UT 5 / 10 5 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 10 / 100 --1 / 3 1 / 3 -- 1 / 6 3 / 24 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 ? ? ? ? ? Data Product Priority A O3 Aerosol OD Radiation PBL Troph column LS MS US+M PBL FT UT LS MS US PBL MS US Total column LS MS Total column LS MS US Total Column LS MS US LS MS US LS MS US PBL Troposphere Aerosol absorption OD Radiation PBL Troposphere H2O CO2 Radiation / dynamics Radiation / (thermo-) dynamics Radiation CH4 Radiation / Tracer N2O Radiation / Tracer SF6* Tracer HDO* Tracer HF* Tracer Cirrus OD Priority B Aerosol phase function Radiation Aerosol extinction Volcanoes Cirrus phase function Radiation *tracers (only the ones are needed that are most accurately observed) 35 / 2 3 5 / 2 / 2 /2 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 5 3 3 5 3 3 5 4.3.2 Ground-based and In-Situ Observations B3 Networks for the validation of the satelliteborne observations in B3-S - Radiosonde and other networks (GPS?) for H2O and temperature profiles in PBL and FT. - Ozone sonde/ LIDAR network for ozone profiles in FT, UT, LS. - Aerosol network (AERONET) - UTLS operational aircraft measurements of at least O3, NOx and H2O, (+cirrus?) Network for the determination of the long-term evolution in GHGs and (H)CFCs (surface concentrations + total columns) B3-G Near-Real Time Use of Information on Composition Changes with Effects on Climate and Climate Change affecting Atmospheric Composition Requirement Driver Height Range Data Product Priority A O3 H2O CO2 Radiation / dynamics Radiation / (thermo-) dynamics Radiation CH4 Radiation / Tracer N2O Radiation / Tracer SF6* Tracer HDO* Tracer HF* Tracer PBL Troph column LS MS US+M PBL FT UT LS MS US PBL MS US Total column LS MS Total column LS MS US Total Column LS MS US LS MS US LS MS Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty 5 / 50 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 5 / 50 10 / 50 10 / 100 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 5 / 50 50 / 200 50 / 200 1 / 20 50 / 100 50 / 200 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 10 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 50 / 200 50 / 100 50 / 200 --0.5 1 / 3 / -0.5 0.5 0.5 1 / 3 / -1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / -1 / 1 / 3 / -1 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 6 / 24 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*3 6 / 24*7 6 / 24*7 1 / 6 1 / 6 1 / 6 3 / 24 6 / 24*7 6 / 24*7 6 / 12 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 1 / 12 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 12 / 24*7 30% 25% 10% 20% 20% 50% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 2% 20% 20% 2% 20% 20% 20% 2% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 36 / 2 3 5 / 2 / 2 /2 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 5 3 3 5 3 3 Aerosol OD Radiation US PBL Troposphere Aerosol absorption OD Radiation PBL Troposphere Cirrus OD Priority B Aerosol phase function Radiation Aerosol extinction Volcanoes Cirrus phase function Radiation UT 50 / 200 5 / 10 5 / 50 5 / 10 5 / 50 10 / 100 3 / 5 ------ 12 / 24*7 1 / 6 3 / 24 1 / 6 3 / 24 6 / 24 10% 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 100% PBL Troposphere LS MS UT 5 / 10 5 / 50 50 / 100 50 / 200 10 / 100 --1 / 3 1 / 3 -- 1 / 6 3 / 24 12 / 24*3 12 / 24*3 6 / 24 ? ? ? ? ? 4.3.3 Auxilary Requirements B3 3-D meteorological variables on temperature, pressure, wind, cloud parameters, surface albedo and radiative fluxes, (more?) to be delivered by analyses of numerical weather prediction models In fact the requirement is on all data that are needed to perform NWP analyses, NWP reanalyses, and GCM calculations. 37 5 Theme C: Air Quality Degradation 5.1 Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification Main driving user requirements C1: EU Framework Directive and Daughter Directives on ambient Air Quality Standards for surface concentration levels of regulated compounds (O3, SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, CO, C6H6, PAH, Pb, Ni, As, Cd, Hg) [not for NH3] National Emissions Ceiling (NEC) Directive on Emission Standards for regulated emissions: SO2, NOx, VOCs, NH3 and fine particulate matter UN/ECE CLRTAP convention (Europe, Russia, US, Canada), particularly the EMEP protocol (European Emissions: SO2, NOx, VOCs) and the Gothenburg protocol (emission ceilings for SO2, NOx, VOCs and NH3) to abate acidification, eutrofication and ground-level ozone. Atmospheric composition measurement for acidification and eutrofication are not considered, except for NH3 measurements in PBL that are needed to derive NH3 emissions. Boundary layer concentrations are required for the detection and attribution of the regulated emissions, free tropospheric concentrations only for the longer lived emitted compounds (FT only up to ~5 km) Measurements over coastal waters are important for ship emissions Notes: All ground-based observations have same priority (A) because all compounds are regulated. Satellite data act as boundary conditions in FT; PBL data for interpolation between observations ground-based network The temporal reolution requirements are for daytime only (this is the threshold requirement). The extension to full 24h coverage, i.e., including the nighttime evolution is a target requirement. Given relative uncertainties do not pertain to very clean or socalled background levels. However, it is still needed to measure in the background atmosphere and to assign these pixels as being background or below the detection limit. Uncertainties required for surface PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations have been fixed in absolute terms at two times the measured background concentration in Europe (van Dingenen et al., Atmos Environ., 38, 2561-2577, 2004) NO2 measurements are assumed to suffice for verification of the regulations on the NOx emissions and NOx ambient levels Ozone surface concentration levels are needed for the Gothenburg protocol. Boundary layer and free tropospheric ozone is needed in order to differentiate between local to regional ozone production and background tropospheric ozone to the attained surface level ozone concentrations (AQ model boundary conditions, also reason for CO in FT) CH2O is assumed needed in PBL for the VOC emissions and to monitor the photochemical activity 38 5.1.1 Satelliteborne Observations C1-S Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification of Air Quality Degradation on the Local to Regional Scale Requirement Driver Height Range Data Product Priority A O3 NO2 CO SO2 CH2O Aerosol OD Interpolation of Surface network Boundary condition Interp. of Surface network / Emissions Boundary condition Interp. of Surface network / Emissions Boundary condition Interp. of Surface network / Emissions Boundary condition Interp. Of Surface network / VOC emissions Boundary condition Interp. of Surface network / Emissions Boundary condition PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 --- 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 10% 20% / 25% 10% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 25% 20% 20% \ 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% \ 1.3e15 molec cm-2 0.05 0.05 / / / / / / / / / / / / 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 39 / trop column / trop column / trop column / / / / / / / 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 / trop column 0.5 / 3 / trop column 0.5 / 3 0.5 / 6 5.1.2 Ground-based Observations C1-G Protocol Monitoring and Treaty Verification of Air Quality Degradation on the Local to Regional Scale Requirement Driver Data Product Priority A O3 Concentration levels CO Concentration levels Emissions NO2 Concentration levels Emissions Concentration levels Emissions Concentration levels Emissions Concentration levels Emissions Concentration levels Emissions Concentration levels Emissions Concentration levels Emissions Concentration levels Emissions VOC Emissions SO2 VOCs C6H6 PAHs PM10 PM2.5 Heavy metals NH3 CH2O Height Range Surface PBL FT Surface PBL FT Surface PBL Surface PBL Surface PBL Surface PBL Surface PBL Surface PBL Surface PBL Surface PBL PBL Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty 3 3 5 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 -0.2 /part.column 2/5 -0.2 /part.column 2/5 -0.2 /part.column -0.2 /part.column -0.2 /part.column -0.2 /part.column -0.2 /part.column -0.2 /part.column -0.2 /part.column -0.2 /part.column 0.2 /part.column 0.25 / 1 0.5 / 2 0.5 / 2 0.25 / 1 0.5 / 2 0.5 / 2 0.25 / 1 0.5 / 2 0.25 / 1 0.5 / 2 0.25 / 1 0.5 / 2 0.25 / 1 0.5 / 2 0.25 / 1 0.5 / 2 0.25 / 1 0.5 / 2 0.25 / 1 0.5 / 2 24 / 24 0.5 / 2 0.5 / 2 10% 10% 20% 10% 10% 20% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 14 g m-3 10% 10 g m-3 10% 10% 10% 10% / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 10 10 20 10 10 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 C6H6=Benzene; PAHs = Poly-Aromatic Hydrocarbons Regulated Heavy Metals include: Lead, Nickel, Arsenic, Cadmium and Mercury (Pb, Ni, As, Cd, Hg). VOCs = Volatile Organic Compounds (these need further specification) PM10 = Fine Particulate Matter with diameters smaller than 10 microns (g .m-3) PM2.5 = Fine Particulate Matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 microns (g .m-3) European surface concentrations network for: O3, CO, NO2, SO2, VOCs, C6H6, PAHs, PM10, PM2.5 (PM1?), Heavy metals and NH3 Coastal water monitoring by operational ship measurements of surface concentrations Network of Lidars and Towers for boundary layer profiling. Network for the validation of the satelliteborne observations 5.1.3 Auxilary Requirements 3-D meteorological variables on temperature, pressure, wind, cloud parameters, surface characteristics, boundary layer height, boundary layer mixing, etc. to be delivered by analyses of numerical weather prediction models. 40 5.2 Scientific Understanding Main driving user requirements C2: Understanding of surface concentrations and boundary layer air pollution. Most important are situations with enhanced levels (episodes) Measurement of possible changes in the composition of the tropospheric ‘background’ and oxidising capacity Source detection and attribution of the emissions of ozone precursors and their effects on atmospheric composition Source detection and attribution of the emissions of aerosols and aerosol precursors such as SO2, NO2 and secondary organic compounds, and their effects on atmospheric composition Notes: The temporal resolution requirements are for daytime only (this is the threshold requirement). The extension to full 24h coverage, i.e., including the nighttime evolution is a target requirement. Measurements of NO2, O3 and UV act flux can be used to convert NO2 to NOx under polluted conditions (photostationary state) Above the PBL typically tropospheric column observations suffice, except for the UV-VIS spectral actinic flux for which the effect of clouds is very important for the profile H2O needed for relative humidity in the PBL The aerosol types to distinguish include at least: Sulphate, Dust, Sea Salt, OC, BC, Mixed Isotopes of C for CO and CH4 (12C, 13C, 14C) could be used to distinguish between, e.g., fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions N2O5 measuments are useful during the night. 41 5.2.1 Satelliteborne Observations Target: Global coverage Threshold: Coverage in the PBL: Western and Central European countries + coastal waters, including Balkan countries and Turkey. Coverage above the PBL: Northern Hemisphere, at least Europe and the Northern Atlantic region. C2-S Scientific Understanding of Air Quality Degradation Requirement Driver Height Range Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT PBL FT PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL PBL 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 10 -1 -1 -1 -----1 -1 -1 --- 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 10% 20% / 25% 10% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 25% 0.05 0.05 < 10% misassignments PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL PBL FT 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 / / / / / / / 10 50 10 50 10 50 50 -1 / trop column -1 / trop column --1 / 3 0.5 0.5 1 / 3 / 1 / 0.5 1 / / 6 / 6 6 6 6 / 3 3 Data Product Priority A O3 NO2 CO ( + isotopes) Aerosol OD Aerosol Type H2O SO2 CH2O Isoprene Terpenes Priority B HNO3 Phot. Acitivity / Ox. Capacity / increasing background Emissions / Phot. Acitivity / Ox. Capacity Ox. Capacity / Emissions / increasing background Emissions Emissions Ox. Capacity Emissions Phot. Activity / VOC emissions Emissions / Ozone levels Emissions / Ozone levels Ox. Capacity N2O5 (night) Ox. Capacity Org. Nitrates UV-VIS spectral actinic flux Ox. Capacity Phot. Activity Ox. Capacity 42 / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 6 6 12 6 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 10% 20% / 10% 20% 20% \ 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 30% 30% 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 30% 30% 30% 5.2.2 Ground-based Observations European surface concentrations network for: O3, CO, NO2, SO2, VOCs, C6H6, PAHs, PM10, PM2.5 (PM1?), Heavy metals and NH3 Coastal water monitoring by operational ship measurements of surface concentrations Network of Lidars and Towers for boundary layer profiling. Network for the validation of the satelliteborne observations in C2-S Networks for the determination of possible background concentration changes in O3, CO and CH4. C2-G Scientific Understanding of Air Quality Degradation Requirement Driver Height Range Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT PBL FT PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL PBL -1 -1 -1 -----1 -1 -1 --- 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 10% 20% / 25% 10% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 25% 0.05 0.05 < 10% misassignments PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL PBL FT -1 / trop column -1 / trop column --1 / 3 0.5 0.5 1 / 3 / 1 / 0.5 1 / / 6 / 6 6 6 6 / 3 3 Data Product Priority A O3 NO2 CO ( + isotopes) Aerosol OD Aerosol Type H2O SO2 CH2O Isoprene Terpenes Priority B HNO3 Phot. Acitivity / Ox. Capacity / increasing background Emissions / Phot. Acitivity / Ox. Capacity Ox. Capacity / Emissions / increasing background Emissions Emissions Ox. Capacity Emissions Phot. Activity / VOC emissions Emissions / Ozone levels Emissions / Ozone levels Ox. Capacity N2O5 (night) Ox. Capacity Org. Nitrates UV-VIS spectral actinic flux Ox. Capacity Phot. Activity Ox. Capacity / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 6 6 12 6 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 10% 20% / 10% 20% 20% \ 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 30% 30% 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 30% 30% 30% 5.2.3 Auxililary Requirements 3-D meteorological variables on temperature, pressure, wind, cloud parameters, surface albedo and radiative fluxes, (more?) to be delivered by analyses of numerical weather prediction models Geographical and temporal distribution of natural emissions from vegetation, natural fires, wild animals, oceans, volcanoes, lightning, etc. 43 5.3 Near Real Time Use Main driving user requirements C3: Local surface and boundary layer air quality forecasting Chemical weather, including air quality forecasting from regional to global scale, prediction and monitoring of plume transport and plume dispersion, e.g. related to hazards of natural (e.g. volcanic eruption) or anthropogenic (e.g. biomass burning forest fires) origin. Air traffic management, air routing and early warning for unpredictable events Notes: Except for N2O5 the temporal resolution requirements are for daytime only (this is the threshold requirement). The extension to full 24h coverage, i.e., including the nighttime evolution is a target requirement. For tropospheric O3 and CO above the PBL also coverage over the Northern Atlantic is required (as boundary condition for limited area AQ models) For SO2 and aerosol in the free troposphere global coverage is required for air traffic management. The aerosol types to distinguish include at least: Sulphate, Dust, Sea Salt, OC, BC, Mixed For air quality H2O in the PBL and a profile above is required to include the effect of relative humidity on aerosol and for pinning of the primary OH formation Possibly important reservoir species for N to take into account include N2O5, HNO3 and PAN. 44 5.3.1 Satelliteborne Observations C3-S Near Real Time Use of Information on Air Quality Degradation Requirement Driver Height Range Horizontal resolution (km) Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT PBL FT PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 -1 -1 -1 -----1 -1 -1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 6 6 6 6 6 3 3 3 3 10% 20% / 25% 10% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 25% 0.05 0.05 < 10% mis-assignments PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 / / / / / / / / 10 50 10 50 10 50 50 50 -1 -1 -1 -1 0.5 0.5 1 / 3 / 0.5 0.5 0.5 1 / / 6 / 6 6 6 / 6 / 6 / 3 3 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 50% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 30% 30% Data Product Priority A O3 Chem Weather NO2 Chem Weather CO Chem Weather Aerosol OD Chem Weather Aerosol Type Chem Weather H2O Chem Weather SO2 Chem Weather CH2O Chem Weather Priority B HNO3 Chem Weather N2O5 (night) Chem Weather PAN Chem Weather UV-VIS spectral actinic flux Chem Weather 45 / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column / trop column / 3 10% 20% / 10% 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 5.3.2 Ground-based Observations Network for NRT observations of surface concentrations and total column data. Network for NRT observations of ozone profiles Network for the temporal evolution of CH4 Near Real Time Use of Information on Air Quality Degradation C3-G Requirement Driver Height Range Vertical resolution (km) Temporal resolution (hours) Uncertainty PBL FT PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT PBL FT PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT Surface -1 -1 -1 -----1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -- 0.5 / 6 0.5 / 6 0.5 / 3 0.5 / 3 0.5 / 6 0.5 / 6 0.5 / 3 0.5 / 6 0.5 / 6 0.5 / 6 0.5 / 6 0.5 / 6 0.5 / 3 0.5 / 3 0.5 / 3 0.5 / 3 0.5 / 6 0.5 / 6 0.5 / 3 1 / 3 24 / 24*7 10% 20% / 25% 10% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 25% 0.05 0.05 < 10% mis-assignments PBL FT / trop. column PBL FT / trop. column -1 /3 -1 /3 1 / 3 / 0.5 0.5 20% 50% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 Data Product Priority A O3 Chem Weather NO2 Chem Weather CO Chem Weather Aerosol OD Chem Weather Aerosol Type Chem Weather H2O Chem Weather SO2 Chem Weather CH2O Chem Weather HNO3 Chem Weather UV-VIS spectral actinic flux Chem Weather CH4 Priority B N2O5 (night) Chem Weather PAN Chem Weather Chem Weather /3 / 3 /3 /3 / 3 /3 /3 / 3 6 6 / 6 / 6 10% 20% / 10% 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 20% 20% / 1.3e15 molec cm-2 30% 30% 2% (ZA) 5.3.3 Auxililary Requirements 3-D meteorological variables on temperature, pressure, wind, cloud parameters, surface albedo and radiative fluxes, (more?) to be delivered by analyses of numerical weather prediction models Natural emissions inventory, more? NRT vegetation data 46 6. Summary 7. References 47