WMO/IOC/UNEP/ICSU GLOBAL CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM ______________ GCOS STEERING COMMITTEE TWELFTH SESSION GENEVA, SWITZERLAND, 15-18 MARCH, 2004 GCOS SC-XII Doc. 7 (10.III.2004) ________ Item 4 Draft GCOS Implementation Plan (Submitted by the Secretariat) Summary and Purpose of Document Attached hereto is a first draft of GCOS Implementation Plan (GIP). It is at this stage very much a work in progress. The planned schedule calls for the GIP to be submitted to SBSTA-21/COP10 in final form by September 2004, following a period of open review via the GCOS Web site, nominally from end April to end June. ACTION PROPOSED The SC is invited to review the general structure and content of the draft GIP and provide comments and advice to the SC and Panel Chairmen and the Secretariat for incorporation into the next draft. GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT GCOS Implementation Plan 10 March 2004 DRAFT DRAFT GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 3 GCOS Implementation Plan .................................................................................................................... 4 1. Background and Introduction ....................................................................................................... 4 2. The Strategic Approach to Implementation .................................................................................. 6 2.1. Basis provided by Second Adequacy Report (2AR) ................................................................. 6 2.2. Agents for Action ...................................................................................................................... 6 2.3. Criteria Used to Assign Priority ................................................................................................. 7 2.4. Phased Approach ..................................................................................................................... 7 2.5. Global and Integrated Approach ............................................................................................... 7 2.6. Building Capacity ...................................................................................................................... 8 2.7. Measuring Progress - Assessing GCOS Implementation ........................................................ 9 3. Over-Arching/Cross-Cutting Actions .......................................................................................... 10 3.1. Planning and Reporting .......................................................................................................... 10 3.1.1. National and regional planning ........................................................................................ 10 3.1.2. National reporting ............................................................................................................ 10 3.2. Transforming research networks and systems to systematic observation ............................. 11 3.3. International Support for Critical Networks - Technical Cooperation ..................................... 12 3.4. Earth Observation Satellites ................................................................................................... 12 3.5. Integrated Climate Products ................................................................................................... 13 3.6. Historical Data Sets ................................................................................................................ 16 3.7. Data Management and Stewardship ...................................................................................... 17 4. Implementation of Key Global Networks, Systems and Facilities .............................................. 18 4.1. ATMOSPHERIC DOMAIN CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM ............................................... 19 4.1.1. Atmospheric Domain – Surface....................................................................................... 19 4.1.1.a. General ........................................................................................................................ 19 4.1.1.b. Specific issues – surface ECV ..................................................................................... 19 4.1.2. Atmospheric Domain – Upper-Air.................................................................................... 24 4.1.2.a. General ........................................................................................................................ 24 4.1.2.b. Specific issues – Upper-air ECV.................................................................................. 26 4.1.3. Atmospheric Domain – Composition ............................................................................... 31 4.1.3.a. General ........................................................................................................................ 31 4.1.3.b. Specific Issues – Composition ECV ............................................................................ 32 4.2. OCEAN DOMAIN CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM ............................................................ 35 4.2.1. Oceanic Domain – Surface ............................................................................................. 37 4.2.1.a. General ........................................................................................................................ 37 4.2.1.b. Specific issues – surface ECV ..................................................................................... 39 4.2.2. Oceanic Domain – Subsurface........................................................................................ 48 4.2.2.a. General ........................................................................................................................ 48 4.2.2.b. Specific issues – Oceanic Sub-surface ECV ............................................................... 49 4.2.3. Ocean Domain – Data Management ............................................................................... 52 4.2.4. Oceanic Domain – Integrated Global Analysis Products ................................................ 56 4.2.5. Oceanic Domain – Synthesis and Consolidation of Actions .......................................... 56 4.3. TERRESTRIAL DOMAIN CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM ................................................ 58 4.3.1. General ............................................................................................................................ 58 4.3.2. Specific issues- Terrestrial domain ECVs ....................................................................... 59 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Executive Summary [Executive Summary – to be prepared based on the major high priority elements in the IP. The content of the Executive Summary will include: a) Response to the basic conclusions and findings of 2AR and to the responses of Parties to the 2AR. b) Current degree of implementation of the observing systems needed for the implementation of GCOS varies widely as summarized for a representative set of variables (See table xx). c) Blueprint for balanced actions for networks, satellite data, data systems and products presented in the body of the report. d) Priority actions in accord with UNFCCC needs, feasibility and cost effectiveness are: Operational data management and institutional arrangement Integrated products Networks, Satellites and standards Global participation] 3 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT GCOS Implementation Plan 1. Background and Introduction This Plan responds to the request in decision 11/CP.9 adopted by the UNFCCC’s Conference of Parties at its ninth session (COP-9) to coordinate the development of a phased five- to ten-year implementation plan for the integrated global observing systems for climate, using a mix of high-quality satellite and in situ measurements, dedicated infrastructure and targeted capacity-building. The plan is to draw on the Second Report on the Adequacy of Global Observing Systems for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC 1 (or Second Adequacy Report) completed by GCOS in April 2003 and submitted to the COP’s Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) at its twenty-first session (June 2003) and to consider the views of Parties of the UNFCCC on the Report. In preparing the plan, GCOS has been asked to: Consider existing global, regional and national plans, programmes and initiatives; Consult extensively with a broad and representative range of scientists and data users, including the conduct an open review of the implementation plan; Collaborate closely with the ad hoc Group on Earth Observations in developing their respective implementation plan; Identify implementation priorities, resource requirements and funding options Include indicators for measuring its implementation; Global Climate Observing System was requested to submit the final implementation plan to SBSTA at its twenty-first session. The Second Adequacy Report provides a basic structure for an implementation strategy through the 4 overarching conclusions arising from the Report and the multiple findings within the Report. The overarching conclusions from the Report relate to: Free and unrestricted exchange and availability of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) required for global-scale climate monitoring, which are contained in Table 1 and in Appendix 1. Availability of integrated global climate-quality products and improvement and maintenance of the global networks and satellites sustaining these products Internationally accepted standards for terrestrial data and products; System improvements and capacity-building in developing countries, especially in the least developed countries and small island developing states (SIDS). The goal of the Plan is to map out ways to realizing a comprehensive observing system: To characterize the state of the global climate system and its variability. To monitor the forcing of the climate system, including both natural and anthropogenic contributions. To support the attribution of the causes of climate change. To support the prediction of global climate change. To project global climate change information down to regional and local scales. To characterize extreme events important in impact assessment and adaptation, and to assess risk and vulnerability. Observing Climate requires an integrated strategy of land, oceanic, and atmospheric observations from both in situ and remote-sensing platforms, which then must be transformed to information through 1 Appendix 1 provides background on the goals, findings and conclusions of the Second Adequacy Report as well as related activities with the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP) and its Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). 4 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Table 1. Essential Climate Variables that are both currently feasible for global implementation and have a high impact on UNFCCC requirements Domain Atmospheric Essential Climate Variables Surface: Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour. Upper-air: Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (including MSU radiances), Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties. (over land, sea and ice) Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases2, Aerosol properties. Surface: Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colour (for biological activity), Carbon dioxide partial pressure. Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean tracers, Phytoplankton. Oceanic Terrestrial River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Biomass, Fire disturbance. atmosphere and ocean, although spatial and temporal requirements vary with the specific application. Adequate global observing systems for climate will be made up of instruments at ground stations and on ships, buoys, floats, ocean profilers, balloons, samplers, aircraft and satellites, since no single technology can provide all the needed information. Information on where and how the observations are taken (metadata) is also required, as are historical and paleoclimatic records to establish baselines and set the context for the interpretation of trends and variability. The strategy for providing the climate data and products must be both technically and fiscally feasible now and for the future. While the strategy is dependent on national efforts, success will be achieved only through internationally-coordinated action. The strategy must initially focus on the global nature of the requirements but at the same time, its data and products must also be relevant to regional and local requirements. In the case of the monitoring of extreme events, which can be inherently of a small scale and/or high frequency, the optimum strategy must enable global estimates of such phenomena. The strategy for GCOS implementation depends upon close cooperation with many different organizations and agencies with complementary responsibilities, including the international observing programmes such as the World Weather Watch Global Observing System (GOS) and the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) of the WMO; the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS); and the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) and their sponsors. These organizations, together with GCOS and other relevant bodies including the Space Agencies and the international research programmes, form the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) Partnership for the definition, development and implementation of an integrated global observing strategy. Each of the observing system partners is interested in observation for a wide range of users, not only climate. Therefore GCOS works with them to ensure that they are fully aware of the climate requirements and to help ensure that those requirements are met. 2 Including nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). 5 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT The first Earth Observation Summit (Washington DC, July 2003) initiated actions to develop a conceptual framework for building a comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained Earth observation system of systems and established an ad hoc Group on Earth Observations (GEO). GCOS will contribute directly to this comprehensive effort by providing the implementation requirements and mechanisms required to observe the global climate system – a major objective of the Earth Observation mandate. 2. The Strategic Approach to Implementation 2.1. Basis provided by Second Adequacy Report (2AR) This Implementation Plan will be a means of progressing the findings and priorities arising from the 2AR into specific actions that can be taken by Parties, the international and inter-governmental organizations and other national, regional, and international activities. In line with the 4 overarching conclusions from the GCOS Steering Committee (SC), the approach will be to seek implementing actions on all the "essential climate variables" (Table 1), which are the priority variables that are both currently feasible for global implementation and have a high impact on UNFCCC requirements for climate change detection and attribution, impact assessment, and adaptation. These actions will be summarized into several categories, including: Global coverage for existing in situ observing networks – this largely involves: o Improvements in developing countries for the atmospheric and terrestrial domains, but o Expansion of existing networks while and especially improving the density and frequency of observations for the oceanic domain; Effective utilization of satellite data enabled by cal/val, effective data management, and continuity of current priority satellite observations; Routine availability of integrated global climate-quality products from product centres and enhanced reanalysis; Management actions – changes or incremental enhancements in what Parties or international organizations are currently doing, e.g., enhanced monitoring of data availability based on existing data systems; Continued development of new capabilities through research, development and demonstration. 2.2. Agents for Action GCOS is a composite of contributions from observing systems and associated infrastructure from a broad range of existing programs often with observing mandates different from the requirements of climate. The coordination and guidance provided by GCOS to the systems is designed to optimize the contribution of each one to the climate observing mission. Climate, as opposed say to weather forecasting, requires observations across and between the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial domains and truly interdisciplinary analysis requiring meteorologists, oceanographers, biologists, geologists and chemists to mutually and collaboratively address the problems. Appendix 2 provides a list indicating the roles of the contributing international observing systems GOOS, WWW, GAW, WHYGOS, GTOS and the Satellite Operators, their associated international bodies that set the standards and the technical regulations under which they operate, and their relationship to the international organizations by which they are governed. The international scientific community as represented largely through the WCRP, IGBP and the IPCC set observing requirements and provide advisory service to GCOS. By virtue of their use of the observations, 6 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT they are uniquely placed to offer evaluations of the quality and coverage provided by the data sets – and to provide continuing guidance relative to the implementation process. Although the International Programmes can be seen to be a visible face for the systems and networks, virtually all climate related observations are taken by national agencies or institutions. In some cases, nations form a multi-national agency or entity to undertake a particular activity (e.g. EUMETSAT ). To achieve the goals of GCOS the nations and their agencies bear the primary responsibility for implementing and operating observing activities, for coordinating their activities through international organizations, and for providing support for research and technology development programs. The functions of international data archives and the provision of integrated global climate products are generally committed to by national institutions, which take on these data management and analysis tasks on behalf of the global community – and openly and without restriction agree to provide the data and products to all other nations as part of their international commitment. 2.3. Criteria Used to Assign Priority Criteria for placing items within the current or near future implementation time-line include: Clear significant and citable benefits to UNFCCC and IPCC needs for observations to support impact assessment, attribution and prediction of change, and amelioration of and adaptation to future change. Feasibility of an observation - determined by the current availability of an observation or by knowledge of how to make an observation with acceptable accuracy and resolution in both space and time, and that appropriate institutional structures exist for making routine observations and for data archiving, analysis and production of required analyses. Ability to specify a tractable set of implementing actions. (Tractable mean that the technology exists; appropriate equipment for the observation is available; training requirements and operational procedures are known, and end-to-end system elements are available. The latter means that observing site characteristics meet GCOS requirements, the observing program is committed to by the operating nation, data quality control procedures standards known and applied, data exchange (submission to center) procedures in place, meta data requirements are met, and so on.) Cost effective –The benefits that can be obtained utilizing the observations are commensurate with the costs of making an observation routinely. 2.4. Phased Approach The GCOS Implementation Plan will identify short-, medium- and long term actions which focus on the high priority elements. The ultimate goal of GCOS is to arrive at a climate observing program that provides all GCOS ECVs as routinely, i.e. from systematic observations, which are long-term (sustained and continuous), reliable and robust, and with institutional commitment (organizational home and sustained funding). Many elements of the current observing program are not provided routinely. The phased approach for many of these systems will initially involve an experimental or research phase and, if successful, a pilot project stage where the system is deployed, thoroughly tested and evaluated. A pilot project usually confirms that the details of the observing strategy and operation are viable prior to making it a part of the operational or routine observing program. 2.5. Global and Integrated Approach In the future, the satellite remote sensing systems that provide global coverage and are well calibrated will become an increasing contribution to global observations for climate though ground based in situ and remote sensing systems will still be important. When satellite remotely sensed data are the primary source for observing an ECV, in situ data are almost always needed to calibrate and validate the satellite 7 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT data. The synthesis of satellite and in situ data can takes advantage of the unique characteristics of each data type to provide an integrated product with both high spatial resolution and long term stability. From this global foundation higher resolution networks and analysis products enhance the observational resource and build functionality that allows for resolution and application on regional and national scales as appropriate. As previously discussed, GCOS is built through the setting of climate standards and requirements for and in coordination with its partner observing systems, e.g., WWW/GOS, GOOS etc. Many of the potential contributing networks and systems have been designed and operated to address other applications; a few, however, can become major contributors to GCOS often through some rather simple and straightforward, operational changes. The required changes often are things like providing adequate meta-data, ensuring that the observing platform or station operation follows the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles, and the systematic submission of data to the internationally mandated data centers. Thus GCOS implementation is perceived as an integrating program that will require a composite of in-situ and satellite data products, yielding comprehensive data sets in all three domains (atmosphere, ocean and land surface); with data acquisition procedures following the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles, and data and information access through internationally mandated data and analysis centers. This integration often occurs on a variable-by-variable basis and on two time frames. The first occurs in real time or near-real-time for monitoring and prediction purposes and is vital for providing quality control and essential feedback to the observers and system operators. The second occurs in a delayed mode, where historical data are also incorporated, usually as part of an analysis or as part of ongoing research in the detection of climate variability and change. Data assimilation can add considerable value to global observing systems by combining heterogeneous sets of observations (e.g. in situ and remotely sensed measurements) with global numerical models to produce comprehensive and internally consistent fields. Diagnostic data produced during the assimilation process are essential to provide information on the overall quality of the analyses, including information on model biases, as well as to identify questionable data. Many atmospheric domain ECVs can be obtained by accumulating a collection of analyses made each day to initiate numerical weather forecasts. However, the data assimilation systems used in routine forecasting are subject to frequent change as the systems are continually improved and to limited availability of the real-time data. This introduces inhomogeneity that limits their usefulness for studies of inter-annual and longer-term variations in climate. To overcome this, programmes of atmospheric reanalysis have been established in Europe, the USA and Japan, using modern data-assimilation systems to reprocess the observations taken over the past several decades. Such re-analysis products have found widespread application in studies of climate, basic atmospheric processes, and ocean-model initialization and forcing. The extension of the reanalysis concept to the oceanic and terrestrial domains will be a major step in global climate monitoring. Another dimension of the integrated approach is the extension of the climate record through the blending of data from paleo-data records from tree rings, sediment cores, ice cores, etc. with the instrumental records of the last two centuries or so. The attainment of an accurate record of the current global climate will assist enormously in the interpretation of the paleo-data and provide opportunity to better compare and contrast the present climate with the past record. 2.6. Building Capacity GCOS has been the principal agent of the UNFCCC in coordinating the response of Parties and agencies to the needs of the Convention for systematic observations, as encapsulated in Articles 4.1 and 5 of the Convention and in subsequent COP decisions and SBSTA conclusions. The need for Parties to address the priorities for action to improve global observing systems for climate in developing countries has been a common theme in the considerations by SBSTA on systematic observation. The Second Adequacy 8 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Report supported the need to establish “a voluntary funding mechanism for undertaking priority climateobserving-system improvements and related capacity-building with least-developed countries and smallisland developing states as well as with some of those countries with economies in transition. The GCOS Cooperation Mechanism, established by a core set of countries, would provide a coordinated multi-governmental approach to address the high-priority needs for stable long-term funding for key (baseline) elements of global observing systems for climate in support of the requirements of the UNFCCC and other GCOS clients, especially those needs in developing countries, taking into account the special needs and situations of least developed countries and small island developing States. It consists of a: GCOS Cooperation Board as the primary means to identify and co-ordinate improvement projects; and GCOS Cooperation Fund as a means to aggregate voluntary contributions from multiple donors (both in-kind and financial) into a common trust fund. The mechanism has the ability to develop, fund and implement crosscutting approaches relevant to all climate disciplines/regimes, including addressing data management and data exchange. The GCOS Cooperation Mechanism is designed to build on the existing multilateral and bilateral technical cooperation programs (e.g. WMO/VCP, UNDP, and the many national aid agencies), which support observing activities of importance to climate. Its aim is to ensure wide awareness of priority climate needs and a climate focused supplement to existing mechanisms. Building capacity also involves cooperation intra-nationally (among agencies within governments) and between nations regionally to address the multi-domain, multi-discipline objectives of GCOS. For example the co-location of observing facilities as appropriate at stations or observatories in the various reference and baseline networks. Such synergy and collaboration will in principle be cost effective and will encourage the collaboration among disciplines that climate science requires. 2.7. Measuring Progress - Assessing GCOS Implementation The following sections of the GCOS Implementation Plan outline the many and wide-ranging actions that will be required to attain a viable observing system that will address the stated requirements in section 1. For each proposed action a “Performance Indicator” will be specified which will define the measures by which progress can be assessed along with an indicated time frame within which the action should be accomplished. Together these measures assign priority to the action, and reflect the concept of a “phased implementation”. The Performance Indicators may be of two types: Internal metrics that reflect the state and the degree of implementation of an observing system or network such as numbers and quality of available observations; the effectiveness of data exchange, archiving and quality control and the number of climate quality analysis products External metrics such as national reports to UNFCCC, regular assessments with IPCC, evaluations from the scientific community (e.g. WCRP), and response from users of the data and information Section 3 will address actions that are not domain specific and are labeled “Over-Arching/Cross-cutting actions”, while section 4 focuses on those for each ECV in the three domains. 9 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT 3. Over-Arching/Cross-Cutting Actions The 2AR identified a number of issues that cut across all domains. The actions arising from these issues are discussed in this section. 3.1. Planning and Reporting 3.1.1. National and regional planning The needs of the UNFCCC for global climate observations and products can be addressed only if plans are developed and then implemented in a coordinated manner by national, regional and international organizations. GCOS and its international partners have over the past decade developed and disseminated plans for the operation of individual networks for most of the key variables. It is essential that these plans be extended to cover all of the variables and address the integration of both in situ and satellite observations. Efforts to enhance regional planning for the collection, processing and archiving of climate observations need to continue, as this shares the workload across many nations. As noted in the Interim Report presented to the SBSTA in June of 2002, with the exception of the main meteorological networks, most national efforts supporting climate-observing systems are poorly coordinated and planned. Almost all Parties reported that many governmental bodies, agencies and research institutes were involved with systematic observation of the climate system as well as there being different levels of internal governance. Only a very small number of Parties reported that they had instituted internal mechanisms to ensure the necessary coordination. A small number of Annex 1 Parties reported that they had either prepared or were preparing plans for systematic observation of climate as recommended by GCOS. All Parties need to recognize the benefits arising from the implementation of coordination mechanisms and the development of national plans for systematic observation of the climate system, and to adopt appropriate measures within their own jurisdictions. All nations require active national coordination and planning processes as well as plans for systematic climate observation. Table 2. Implementation actions: Planning 3 C1 3.1.2. Action: All Parties undertake national and regional planning processes and produce national plans for climate observations, archiving and analysis. Who: All Parties and appropriate regional bodies (e.g. WMO RAs) Time-Frame: Continuous Performance Indicator: Availability of national and regional plans. Cost Implications: Low 2AR Findings C16, C17 National reporting Reporting on systematic climate observation activities by the Parties as part of their national communications under the UNFCCC has been valuable in the planning and implementation of global 3 The notation C1, C2 …. has been used sequentially to identify the actions on the findings from the Second Adequacy Report that are given in the list of “common findings” from the report. 10 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT observing systems for climate. The response by Parties to the 2AR emphasized that in order to improve the understanding of climate and climate change, and for the UNFCCC to be implemented effectively, accurate and credible information relative to all elements of GCOS must be exchanged according to the relevant guidelines (Decision 4/CP5). The following list of suggestions is pertinent for the GCOS implementation plan: The Supplementary Reporting Format (submitted to SBSTA-13), modified as necessary to remain compatible, should be institutionalized within the revised guidelines; The Parties should be urged to report on measures aimed at adhering to climate monitoring principles and data rescue and preservation; The UNFCCC climate monitoring principles should be revised and extended to address the application of the principles, and development of new principles, to satellite observing systems in accord with decision 11/CP9; All Parties should participate in the reporting process. Table 3. Implementation actions : Reporting to UNFCCC C2 3.2. Action: All Parties report as requested to the UNFCCC using the Supplementary Reporting Format . Who: All Parties Time-Frame: Continuous Performance Indicator: Percentage of parties reporting Cost Implications: Low. 2AR Findings C18 Transforming research networks and systems to systematic observation Observations of several climate-system variables are made in the context of research programmes or by Space Agencies whose primary mission is research and development. This is particularly so in the atmospheric composition, the oceanic, and the terrestrial domains. Once methods are sufficiently mature to guarantee a sustained set of observations to known and acceptable levels of accuracy to their users, they need to be translated into a systematic or operational observing system. Although this transition has not been a natural process in national and organizational planning, recent progress involving the Space Agencies and some others has occurred and further improvements are encouraged. An operational system requires an organization with the institutional mandate and sustained funding. The operational system includes the acquisition, transmission, analysis and archiving of the data. Often the optimum arrangement is for the operation to be funded as part of a research laboratory’s responsibility; in other cases it may involve the transfer of responsibility from one organization to another. This transfer of responsibility also implies sustained dialogue between the operational entities and the research community so that the operational arm may benefit from scientific advances. Table 4. Implementation actions: Transition of networks and systems from research/experimental to operational status C3 Action: Need sustained institutional commitment and support for GCOS contributing systems and networks and and a transfer from research to operational functions as appropriate. Who: National and international agencies as appropriate. Time-Frame: Continuous Performance Indicator: National commitments to vulnerable networks and systems Cost Implications: Substantial 11 2AR Findings C19 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 3.3. DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT International Support for Critical Networks - Technical Cooperation While most climate observations are carried out by national agencies on a best-endeavours approach, the benefits of the global baseline networks of GCOS are international in scope. Their sustainability can be seen as an international responsibility. Many developing countries and countries with economies in transition do not have the capabilities or the resources to provide the essential in situ observations or carry out associated analysis of climate data. The many multi-national and bi-lateral technical assistance programs can assist and the GCOS multi-national fund has been established to address the high-priority needs for funding for key (baseline) elements of global observing systems, especially in least developed countries and some small island states. The support involves capacity-building, improving infrastructure and may need to sustain operations. The technical commissions of WMO and IOC, and hopefully soon a technical commission dedicated to the Terrestrial Domain, provide overall guidance and coordination on the implementation of all operational atmospheric and oceanographic networks. It is vital for GCOS to liaise with the technical commissions to ensure that the GCOS Monitoring Principles are recognised and adhered to by all network operators, especially for the baseline networks, which require additional resources and international coordination to be fully implemented. A dedicated GCOS Project Office is required to support these activities, which are additional to the service and policy functions of the GCOS Secretariat. The Project Office needs to focus especially on the development and operation of baseline networks and associated analysis activities. Table 5. Implementation actions: International support for baseline networks. Technical Cooperation C4 Action: Organize a campaign to solicit multi-lateral and bilateral technical cooperation programs to support GCOS focused activities in developing countries and countries with economies in transition. Who: GCOS Secretariat and key participating Parties Time-Frame: Continuous, urgent to start Performance Indicator: New resources dedicated to GCOS related projects. Cost Implications: Low 2AR Finding C20 C6 Action: Establishment of a project office to oversee planning and monitoring of GCOS technical assistance projects and liaise with network managers. Who: GCOS Cooperation Board and Steering Committee Time-Frame: Urgent, Continuing Performance Indicator: Number of network sites becoming operational Cost Implication: 2 Technical staff plus travel and office expenses. C20 3.4. Earth Observation Satellites Satellites now provide the single most important means of obtaining observations of the climate system from a near-global perspective and comparing the behaviour of different parts of the globe. A detailed global climate record for the future critically depends upon a major satellite component, but for satellite data to contribute fully and effectively to the determination of long-term records, the system must be implemented and operated in an appropriate manner to ensure that these data are climatically accurate and homogeneous. To assist the Space Agencies, the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles have been extended specifically for satellite observations, as documented in Appendix 2. Their implementation by the Space Agencies for operational spacecraft and systematic research spacecraft would greatly enhance 12 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT the utility of satellite information and benefit the climate record. For “one time” research spacecraft, the principles of continuity obviously do not fully apply, but as many of the other principles as possible (e.g., those for rigorous pre-launch instrument characterization and calibration, on-board calibration, complementary surface-based observations, etc.) should be followed. Recently the space agencies, both the operational system operators and the experimental systems have agreed to address climate observing requirements. The continuation of the attention being given by the Space Agencies to addressing the accuracy and homogeneity requirements for climate would significantly enhance the value of satellite observations to the global observing systems for climate. As pointed out in the 2AR, the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles extended specifically for satellite operations address the following key operational issues: Continuity and homogeneity and overlap Orbit Control Calibration Data interpretation and validation Institutional Issues It will also involve recording and archiving of all satellite meta-data so that long-term sensor performance is accessible as well as establishing a self-describing format for all archived data. The organization of data service systems that ensure accessibility is needed. The reprocessing of all relevant satellite data so that optimum use can be made of the satellite data in the integrated global analyses and re-analyses will be a major on-going challenge. C7 C8 3.5. Table 6. Implementation actions: Earth observation satellite operations Action: Development of plans for satellite operations to contribute to 2AR climate monitoring through adherence to the GCOS Climate Monitoring Findings Principles as extended specifically to satellite operations. Who: Satellite operating nations and associated space agencies. C1, C2 Time-Frame: Urgent, continuing Performance Indicator: Number of integrated products utilized by IPCC. Cost Implications: Moderate – space agency Action: Ensure continuity and over-lap of key satellite sensors; C1, C2 recording and archiving of all satellite meta-data; implementing selfdescribing formats for all archived data; providing data service systems that ensure accessibility; undertaking reprocessing of all data relevant to climate for inclusion in integrated climate analyses and re-analyses. Who: Satellite operating nations and associated space agencies. Time-Frame: Urgent, continuing Performance Indicator: Data and products conform to climate standards. Cost Implications: High – national/space agency Integrated Climate Products While observations of the climate variables are an essential pre-requisite, the users of the information generally require analyzed outputs and products. Thus developing analyzed products for all of the Essential Climate Variables is essential. While the Parties are operating a number of such analysis centres for some of the atmospheric variables, additional operational analyses are required for all domains. International coordination of these activities is essential. It is also important to recognize that alternative analysis approaches are required to verify the accuracy of the various outputs for specific variables. At this point in time there are very few analysis centres that are integrating observations of a 13 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT given variable using data from different networks. The integrated products should include estimates of the uncertainty inherent in the analysis. Achieving the integrated analyses of the following important ECVs are priority near term activities. Domain Atmospheric Variable for which Integrated products should be immediately engaged and progressively improved Surface: Precipitation Upper-air: Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (including MSU radiances), Reanalysis-derived atmospheric structure of wind, temperature and water vapour. Composition: Ozone, Aerosol optical depth Surface: Sea-surface temperature, biological activity) (over land, sea and ice) Oceanic Terrestrial Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Ocean colour (for Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI),Fire disturbance. Some ECVs will require active research programs to develop the tools necessary to produce climatequality integrated analyses. Candidate variables for high priority research efforts include: Domain Atmospheric (over land, sea and ice) Variable for which research towards Integrated products should be a high priority Surface: Upper-air: Cloud properties. Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Aerosol properties. . Oceanic Terrestrial Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity and current from Reanalyisi Biomass Real-time data assimilation and re-analysis is another method of generating integrated products and exploits the physical relationships between a number of the variables and thus uses many of the available types of observations. It is an increasingly powerful tools that haves significant potential for integrating climate variables and providing a comprehensive picture of the climate system. The main focus and success of real-time data assimilation and re-analysis to date has been on short-term variability of the atmosphere rather than on long-term climate trends. The latter places particular demands on the re- 14 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT analysis systems and on the observational data that they ingest. Ocean data assimilation and re-analysis is just now developing and terrestrial activities are in their infancy, due to a lack of modeling infrastructure, historical data and limited institutional engagement. Although the quality of re-analyses is at present insufficient for a number of climate applications, there are good reasons to be optimistic and there is an opportunity to develop improved procedures for climate reanalyses and thereby reveal long-term trends. A small number of re-analysis centres are required, with adequate staff and data processing, as part of an internationally-coordinated programme for the preparation of integrated climate products. The international re-analysis programme should give initial priority to: (a) extending current atmospheric re-analysis activities to meet requirements for monitoring climate variability and trends; (b) building on and extending ocean data-assimilation research activities such as GODAE to establish ocean re-analyses for the recent satellite era, and for longer if practicable; and (c) developing products relating to the composition and forcing of the climate system. The outputs of the re-analysis programme should be widely and easily available to the user community. The availability of national holdings of historical data to the international data centres is an essential requirement for the effective conduct of re-analysis. Establishing continuing capabilities for reanalysis for each domain, recognising the early stage of development of assimilation in the ocean and the terrestrial domains, is essential. Table 7. Implementation Actions: Integrated Global Climate Products C9 C10 C11 C12 Action: Establishing a coordinated system of analysis centers to produce the required integrated global analysis fields for climate, including measures of uncertainty. Who: National services in association with the international Technical Commissions and Scientific Advisory Bodies. Time-Frame: Most ECV’s addressed by 2009 Performance Indicator: Number of ECVs with analysis products available Cost Implications: Low-Moderate Action: Establishing a continuing capacity for reanalysis for each domain. Who: National services in association with WCRP, IGBP, and the Scientific Advisory Bodies. Time-Frame: Initial capacity in each domain by 2009 Performance Indicator: Re-analysis products produced in each domain. Cost Implications: Low-moderate Action: Provision of historical data sets including meta-data to internationally mandated archives for inclusion in re-analysis programs. Who: National services in cooperation with WDCs Time-Frame: Completed by 2009 Performance Indicator: Reports to UNFCCC Cost Implications: Low Action: Continuation of pilot projects and associated research on ocean and terrestrial data assimilation Who: National services, research projects and space agencies Time-Frame: Continuing Performance Indicator: Reports to UNFCCC Cost Implications: Low 15 2AR Finding C3 C4 C5 C3 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 3.6. DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Historical Data Sets Accurate records of past variations and changes are an essential part of interpreting using new analyses. Improvement of these historical records is dependent on adequate investment in data archaeology for the rehabilitation of data that are not presently accessible or are inadequately assessed for random errors and time-dependent biases. Three aspects of data archaeology are critical for putting new observations into a historical context or making effective use of the past records. First, information must be compiled about how, where and when observations were made, i.e., metadata. Most instrumental observing systems as well as proxy data or data from non-instrumental sources (e.g., biophysical or geochemical data such as tree rings, coral growth, dust layers) have not been designed to measure decadal and longer-term changes and variations. Adequate metadata are essential for climate observations. In their absence exhaustive investigative research is required to find, compile, and integrate information on how, where and when observations were taken in order to effectively interpret the data. Second, it is essential to synthesize present observations with historical data to obtain the most comprehensive spatial and long-term data sets. At the present time scientists are struggling to address all aspects of data archaeology. This includes retrieving data inaccessible because the recording media are outdated, national data exchange is restricted, or resources are inadequate to make them easily accessible. Third, once appropriate metadata and comprehensive data sets are assembled, a demanding task remains; time-dependent biases within the data sets must be identified and corrected. When historical climate observations from GCOS baseline networks have been digitized, quality controlled and homogenized, the rehabilitated data and their associated metadata should be available in international data centres. Table 8. Implementation Actions: Historical Data Sets C13 C14 C15 Action: Digitization of historical data records and submission to WDC Who: Nations facilitated through GCOS Regional Workshops and the WCDP Time-Frame: Complete by 2009 Performance Indicator: National reports to UNFCCC and data receipt at WDC Cost Implications: Low Action: Data originating in a country but held in archives of a second country should be returned to the country of origin and also sent to the designated international archive. Who: National services in cooperation with WDC. Time-Frame: Complete by 2009 Performance Indicator: National reports to UNFCCC and data receipt at WDC Cost Implications: Low Action: Acquisition and preservation of Paleo-climate data and proxy data and associated integrated analysis to assist in resolving past climate variability Who: National research programs in cooperation with WCRP Time-Frame: Continuing Performance Indicator: Reports in scientific literature Cost Implications: Low 16 2AR Finding C8 C7 C6 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 3.7. DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Data Management and Stewardship One of the most important activities to be undertaken is to ensure that high-quality data records are collected and retained for analysis and/or re-analysis by current and future generations of scientists. This essential but often overlooked activity is called data management and stewardship. First, it is clear from the detailed network reviews that the flow of real-time data to the user community and to the international data centres for the ECVs is inadequate. This is especially true for many terrestrial-observing networks. Data policy, lack of resources and inadequately integrated data-system infrastructure are the primary causes. The latter are especially problematic in developing countries and countries with economies in transition. Second, access to very large data sets, including some satellite data and model simulations, is becoming increasingly difficult for many users. This is compounded in developing countries with inadequate information technology infrastructure or technical skills in using complex data. Access to these data must be made more effective through the developments of derived products. Third, the preservation of the data for future use requires facilities and infrastructure to ensure the longterm storage of the data. The rapidly-increasing volume of raw observations that must be saved and stored in an archive is such that without action the data will often be inaccessible to many users. Once data are in electronic format, the data must be continually migrated to newer storage devices and access software or consistent format in order to preserve the data for sustained future use. This practice of technological data stewardship is a requirement on the international data centres and the Space Agencies to ensure future data usage. At the present time, even large centres are barely keeping pace with the influx of new data. This is especially true when observing systems are put in place without adequate consideration of the technological data-stewardship requirements for data archive and access. It follows that international data centres and Space Agencies need to give high priority to making use of modern information and communication technology to ensure effective access and long-term migration, and thus ultimate preservation, of the rapidly-growing volumes of climate-related data. Fourth, a key component of data management includes adequate monitoring of the data stream. This includes timely quality-control of the observations by the monitoring centres and notification to observing system operators and managers of both random and systematic errors, so that corrective action can occur. An operational system is needed that can track, identify, and notify network managers and operators of observational irregularities, especially time-dependent biases, as close to near-real time as possible. Such feedback systems are currently not routine practices at monitoring and analysis centres. Equally important is the follow-up required by operators and managers who are responsible for implementing timely corrective measures. This is especially problematic in developing countries with lessthan-adequate resources. Without adequate scientific data stewardship, biases often become apparent only after substantial investment in research related to the rehabilitation of the data record, e.g., data archaeology. Scientific data stewardship, therefore, is a cost-effective measure that minimizes the need for uncertain corrections at a later date. When problems in the observations and reporting of the observations are not identified and corrected as soon as possible, errors and biases accumulate in the data and the climate records can be irreparably damaged. Finally, many inconsistencies and apparent biases and inhomogeneities in the data can be addressed if adequate meta-data information is available to the analyst. For many climate observing systems international standards and procedures for the storage and exchange of metadata need to be developed and implemented. International agencies, working with their technical commissions and the GCOS Secretariat, should address the inadequacies related to scientific data stewardship, including the introduction of adequate near-real-time observing system performance monitoring and monitoring for time-dependent biases. 17 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Table 9. Implementation Actions: Data Management and Stewardship Ref. No. C16 C17 C18 C19 C20 C21 Action (A): Implementation action proposed or required Who (W): Proposed responsible Parties/Institutions Time-frame (T): Action accomplished by date, or continuous Performance Indicator(s) (P): Measures by which progress will be assessed A: Ensure real- time flow of all required GCOS data to analysis centers and international archives W: National services T: Urgent, continuing P: Reports to UNFCCC and data receipt at centers and archives. Costs: Low A: Ensure that data policies facilitate the exchange and archiving of all required climate data. W: Nations and International Agencies T: Urgent, continuing P: National reports to UNFCCC Costs: Minimal A: Development of modern distributed data services that can handle the increasing volumes of data and which can allow feedback to observing network management. W: National services committing to international data center operation and high data volume providers such as satellite operators T: Longer term objective, 2014 P: Development of plans and initial steps at some centers Costs: Moderate A: Ensure that newly deployed observing systems have adequate data management and archive infrastructure. W: System operators T: Urgent, continuing P: Plans and reports Costs: Moderate A: Develop standards and procedures for meta-data and its storage and exchange W: International Technical Commissions with Scientific Advisory Bodies T: Guidance complete by 2009 P: Guidance documents published Costs: Moderate A: Develop adequate observing performance monitoring and monitoring for time-dependent biases procedures for all climate data – all Domains W:International Technical Commissions and GCOS Secretariat T: Longer time horizon. 2014 P: Planning activity started Costs: Moderate 2AR Findings C9 C9 C10 C13 C11 C12 C14 C15 4. Implementation of Key Global Networks, Systems and Facilities4 4 The purpose of this section is not clear and has been deleted. The text could just as well begin again at Part II, which would become section IV. 18 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 4.1. DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT ATMOSPHERIC DOMAIN CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM 4.1.1. Atmospheric Domain – Surface 4.1.1.a. General Table 10 summarizes the observational networks and satellite data required for implementation of GCOS in the Atmospheric Domain-Surface sorted according to each GCOS Essential Climate Variable (ECV). The associated existing international data center facilities are also listed. Over land the various networks of surface meteorological and climatological stations are the primary elements of GCOS. These include:GSN - Baseline GCOS Surface Network . The GSN comprises about 1000 stations of the WMO World Weather Watch Global Observing System (WWW/GOS) that have been selected based on past performance and contribution to global representativeness for global climate monitoring purposes. The individual stations will meet GCOS standards for observation and for data exchange.[AS2] Full WWW/GOS - synoptic observing networks (~7000 stations) having global and regional data exchange requirements [AS4] National climatological and meteorological networks . These networks (GSN is a subset of WWW/GOS which in turn is a subset of National networks) provide the major in situ observational resource to the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) over land namely; Temperature, Air Pressure, Precipitation, Water Vapor and Wind Speed and Direction. The GSN is designed by the GCOS/AOPC as the Baseline network vital to monitoring and detection of global and regional climate change. The Full WWW/GOS and National networks are essential to the understanding and evaluation of the impacts of climate and climate change on regional and national scales. The vulnerability to climate change, especially changes in extreme events, require national and regional climate observing networks at both a daily timescale and a much finer space scale than the GSN. (an example map of the European Climate Assessment (ECA) from KNMI would be useful here – could also be provided by NCDC ) Over the oceans the in situ surface meteorological observations are provided by Voluntary Observing Ships (VOSClim), drifting buoys, the Tropical Mooring Network and the Reference Buoy Network. The Implementation of these observing systems is covered in detail under the Oceanic Domain in section 4.2.1 . Some specific issues relative to observing the marine meteorological fields (temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, and humidity) are addressed here. Satellite measurements are absolutely critical to the observing strategies addressing the global distribution of the essential atmospheric surface variables over the ocean. Combination of land and marine data is vital for the true assessment of change over the planet. [AS5] To optimize the value of the networks for application to climate, operators of the networks should follow the procedures and practices outlined in the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles . [AS1] Many observing facilities are being changed from the traditional manual observing station operation to automatic or quasi-automatic operations. These changes have been demonstrated to insert inconsistencies and inhomogeneities into the climate record -- ways and means to ensure a compatible transition are needed to be developed, tested and applied. [AS3] 4.1.1.b. Specific issues – surface ECV The following sections elaborate further on the GCOS issues related to each ECV in the Atmospheric Domain – Surface. Table 11 lists the specific implementation actions proposed, the suggestion of what 19 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT bodies or institutions should take the action, the time-frame, and the performance indicators or measures by which progress can be assessed. ECV - Surface Temperature In addition to the land-based networks described above the observation of sea surface temperature as described below in section 4.2.1 and air temperature over sea ice (from the Arctic and Antarctic buoy networks) is required along with an analysis integrating both fields into a global integrated surface temperature product. [AS1, AS2, OS2, OS3, OS4] ECV - Air Pressure In addition to the land based observations of pressure described above pressure data from over the ocean from sensors mounted on drifting buoys (also in the sea-ice areas of the Arctic and Antarctic), VOSClim ships, the Tropical Mooring Network, and the Reference Buoy Network. Many of these measurements have been operational over the last 25 years; the data are exchanged and inserted into the operational meteorological WWW system and are subject to quality control procedures at the level of data acquisition and again at the analysis center level. [AS5] ECV - Precipitation Precipitation is the key variable for human and natural systems affected by climate. Also in order to evaluate national water resources, it is vital to have the regional and global context provided by data in the WDC-A. Precipitation is a key input to the terrestrial domain, and is required to complete the hydrological cycle in many studies. Precipitation usually occurs on space and time scales much smaller than the network density of most meteorological and climatological networks, so measurement is required of the type, frequency, intensity as well as the total amount of precipitation. To compensate for this many nations have organized and operate special precipitation networks. In addition, assessments of the problems caused by blowing snow, leading to issues of undercatch need to be assessed. Global and regional estimates of precipitation and their variability can be significantly improved by nations routinely exchanging their current and historical observations with the international data centres. [AS6] Satellite observing systems (e.g. TRMM) have been used experimentally to map the distribution of precipitation over the globe. The use of such satellite systems for climate purposes, particularly over the oceans, (e.g. the future Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) program) will require a network of precipitation gauges on the Reference Buoy Network (see section 4.2.1) and on selected islands to provide calibration and validation information for the integrated analysis product. Even over land, incorporation of national radar network data will require a dense network of surface gauges for inclusion into analysed products. Precipitation amounts derived from Reanalysis products are neither consistent over time nor accurate enough for climatic purposes. [AS7, AS8] ll remain limited until an operational strategy is devised for ocean areas, land areas with either low precipitation rates or significant contributions from snowfall. ECV - Near-surface Wind Speed and Direction Over land the observation of wind speed and direction is accomplished largely through the synoptic meteorological network (WWW/GOS). Over the oceans the observations from ships (VOSClim), the Tropical Mooring Network, and the Reference Buoy Network provide a sparse but vital data resource. There are continuing problems with the representativeness and quality of in situ wind measurements over both the land and ocean. Satellite borne scatterometer and SSMI data have been demonstrated as a viable source for wind field information over the ocean when coupled with the in situ observations in an integrated analysis product. The systematic and sustained deployment of scatterometer systems is required. ECV Wind speed and direction Over land the observation of wind speed and direction is accomplished largely through the synoptic meteorological network. Over the oceans the observations from ships (VOSClim), the Tropical Mooring Network, and the Reference Buoy Network provide a sparse but vital data resource. There are continuing problems with the representativeness and quality of in situ wind measurements over both the land and ocean. Satellite borne scatterometer data have been demonstrated as a viable source for wind field 20 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT information over the ocean when coupled with the in situ observations in an integrated analysis product. The systematic and sustained deployment of scatterometer systems is required. [AS9] ECV - Water Vapor In addition to the land based WWW/GOS networks water vapor (humidity) measurements are obtained from VOSClim ships. Homogeneity and observational practices hamper the usefulness of the data from whatever source - something that will need to be addressed through research activity. Such an activity is essential if the context of the impact of changes of surface water vapour on natural and human systems. Surface water vapor data not been studied in a global context and efforts to provide historic data to the GCOS analysis and archive centres are to be encouraged. [AS10] ECV - Surface Radiation Budget The surface radiation budget is a fundamental component of the surface energy budget that is crucial to nearly all aspects of climate and needs to be monitored systematically. The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) has established the relevant measurement techniques and it provides the foundation for the GCOS baseline network for surface radiation. The development of this global network should be done in concert with the Earth Radiation Budget observations from satellite (see section 4.1.2.b below ). The BSRN provides high-quality measurements of radiation at the surface, and should be expanded and adequately supported. More spatially-extensive datasets of sunshine duration in most countries could provide useful historic information and their incorporation into GCOS analysis and archive centres is also encouraged. [AS11, AS12] Table 10. Observation networks and systems and international data centers contributing to the surface component of the GCOS Atmospheric Domain. ATMOSPHERIC DOMAIN SURFACE Contributing Surface Network(s) ECV Temperature Baseline GCOS Surface Network (GSN) Full WWW/GOS Surface Networks Additional National Networks Drifting Buoy Array VOSClim Fleet Tropical Mooring Network Reference Buoy Network (See also Oceanic Surface Sea Surface Temperature ECV) International Data Center(s) and Archives Contributing 2AR Satellite Data FINDING Infrared Microwave GCOS GSN Monitoring Center (DWD, JMA) GCOS GSN Analysis Center (NCDC) GCOS GSN Archive (WDC-Asheville) WMO-CBS GCOS Lead Centers (DWD, JMA, NCDC) Global Historical Climate Network (WDC-Asheville, NCDC) 21 A1, A3, A22, A23, C16, C17 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 Air Pressure DRAFT Baseline GCOS Surface Network (GSN) Full WWW/GOS Surface Networks Additional National Networks Drifting Buoy Array VOSClim Fleet Tropical Mooring Network Reference Buoy Network GCOS GSN Monitoring Center (DWD, JMA) GCOS GSN Analysis Center (NCDC) GCOS GSN Archive (WDC-Asheville) WMO-CBS GCOS Lead Centers (DWD, JMA, NCDC) Global Historical Climate Network (WDC-Asheville, NCDC) Wind Speed/ Direction Baseline GCOS Surface Network (GSN) WWW/GOS Synoptic Network Additional National Networks VOSClim Fleet Tropical Mooring Network Reference Buoy Network Precipitation Baseline GCOS Surface Network (GSN) Full WWW/GOS Surface Network Additional National Networks Reference Buoy and Island Network National Lidar Networks Water Vapor Surface Radiation Budget Baseline GCOS Surface Network (GSN) Full WWW/GOS Synoptic Network VOSClim Fleet Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) WWW/GOS Synoptic Network Additional National Networks DRAFT DRAFT A1, A2, A3, A4, A6, A22, A23, C16, C17 WWW/GDPS Centers GODAE – Monterey Server Wind at the ocean surface ICOADS – International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set Scatterometer, A2, A3, A7, Passive A22, A23 Microwave GCOS GSN Monitoring Centers (DWD, JMA) GCOS GSN Analysis Center (NCDC) GCOS GSN Archive (WDC-Asheville) Global Precipitation Clim. Center (DWD) Global Historical Climate Network (WDC-A, NCDC) Global Precipitation Climatology Program Passive Microwave, Infra-red WWW/GDPS Centers GCOS GSN Analysis Centers (NCDC) N/A A1, A4, A5, A22, A23 Tropical Active Microwave (e..g. GPM) Radar A2, A22, A23 WMO Radiation C’ter (Davos) ERB missions A8 World Radiation Data Center (e.g. CERES, GERB) (St. Petersburg) Global Energy Budget Archive (Zurich) GCOS GSN Analysis Centers (UK Met Off., Hadley Center and WDC-A, NCDC) Table 11. Actions proposed (Atmospheric Domain – Surface) 22 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 Ref. No. AS1 AS2 AS3 AS4 AS5 AS6 AS7 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Action (A): Implementation action proposed or required Who (W): Proposed responsible Parties/Institutions Time-frame (T): Action accomplished by date, or continuous Performance Indicator(s) (P): Measures by which progress will be assessed A: Application of GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles (GCMP) to all surface networks W: All National Services in coordination with WMO/CBS, WMO/RAs, and GCOS Secretariat T: Continuous P: Quality and homogeneity of data and meta-data submitted to data centers and National Reports to UNFCCC A: Detailed analysis of causes of GSN faults, followed by full implementation of the GSN W: National Services in coordination/cooperation with GCOS/AOPC and GCOS Project Office Time -frame: Complete operation of GSN by 2007 and receipt of all archival data by 2008 P: Data archive statistics at WDC and National Communications to UNFCCC Cost: Uncertain but additional costs could be incurred at up to 400 currently nonoperational stations A: Develop guidelines and procedures to help the transitino from manual to automatic surface observing stations that satisfies the GCMP W: WMO/CIMO in cooperation with the CCl, GCOS AOPC and the GCOS Project Office T: Complete by 2006 P: Quality and homogeneity of data and metadata submitted to data centres Cost: Consultancies $100K Need: More GSN data should become available if all RBSN data are made globally available A: Obtain major progress in implementation and systematic operation of the full WWW/GOS Regional Basic Synoptic Networks (RBSN) in compliance with GCOS CMP W: National Services in cooperation/coordination with WMO/CBS, WMO/CCl and RAs, WWW Secretariat T: Continuous with 10% improvement in receipt of RBSN data by 2009 P: Data archive statistics at WDC-A Cost: Negligible unless there are communication bottle-necks A: Seek cooperation from drifting buoy deploying nations and programs so that all drifting buoys have atmospheric pressure sensors W: Drifting buoy operating nations and programs. T: Continuous P: Percentage of buoys with SLP sensors Cost: Less than 1800 x cost of sensor A: Submission of precipitation data from national networks to the designated international operational and archive data centers W: National Services T: Continuous with 20% improvement in receipt by 2009 P: Percentage of nations providing precipitation data to the International Archive (GPCC and WDC-A). Cost: Negligible A: Develop the plans and initiate the deployment of precipitation stations on a global network of islands and on the Reference Buoy Network W: The planning by the AOPC and JCOMM in cooperation with National Services and GCOS Secretariat; deployment by National Services or Institutions T: Develop plans by 2005, implementation complete by 2009 P: Published plans. No. of stations implemented and data submission to centres Cost: Susbstantial capital and on-going costs 23 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 AS8 AS9 AS10 AS11 AS12 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT A: Transfer from research mode and ensure continuous operation of satellites designed to observe global precipitation fields (GPM type of instrumentation) W: Satellite Operators T: Continuous P: Commitment to long-term satellite observations of global precipitation Cost: Large transfer costs from research community A: Ensure continuous operation of wide swath satellite scatterometer. W: Satellite operators T: Continuous P: Commitment to long-term satellite observations of surface winds Cost: Large transfer costs from research community A: Submission of water vapour data from national networks to the GCOS GSN Analysis and Archive Centres. W: GCOS GSN Analysis Centres and WCRP. T: Complete analysis of global-scale data by 2006 P: Data availability in analysis centers and archive Cost: Negligible A: Submission of sunshine data from national networks to the GCOS GSN Analysis and Archive Centres. W: GCOS GSN Analysis Centres and WCRP. T: Complete analysis of global-scale data by 2009 P: Data availability in analysis centers and archive Cost: Negligible A: Consolidate the global BSRN network for global coverage and establish formal analysis infrastructure. W: Climate research community (WCRP/GEWEX Radiation Panel) and national institutions. T: Plan completed 2004, complete BSRN operation by 2009 P: Published plan (including number of BSRN stations submitting data); %age of stations providing full data to archive Cost: Depends upon no. of new stations 4.1.2. Atmospheric Domain – Upper-Air 4.1.2.a. General Table 12 summarizes the observational networks and satellite data required for implementation of GCOS in the Atmospheric Domain - Upper-Air, sorted according to each GCOS ECV. Because the main in situ observations are from rawinsondes, special issues affect several ECVs and are called out first. The associated existing international data center facilities are also listed. For the variables temperature, wind speed and direction, and water vapour the radiosonde network provides the backbone of the in situ global observing system for climate as well as for weather forecasting applications. The full WWW/GOS plan for radiosondes, some 900 stations, has never been fully realized. About 15 ships fitted with automated radiosonde systems operate largely in the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Some problems are occurring either because observations are not being taken due to a lack of resources, or because data are not being exchanged. The resulting acquisition of data is unevenly distributed over the globe with relative high-density coverage over most of the Northern Hemisphere, and with much poorer coverage over the tropics and parts of the Southern Hemisphere. The advent of GPS technology has helped improve the accuracy of radiosonde wind measurements; however, it has also created problems due to increased cost and availability of sondes. In order to take advantage of the enhanced accuracy it is essential to implement the reporting of position and time of each measurement (as in new codes). It is also highly desirable to have observations twice per day as this allows radiation biases to be partly assessed. 24 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT The GCOS AOPC has designated a subset of the WWW/GOS network as the baseline GCOS Upper-Air Network (GUAN) consisting of about 150 radiosonde stations fairly evenly distributed over the globe and is seeking cooperation with the WMO/WWW/CBS and the WMO/Regional Associations and National Services to implement a program of sustained operation of the network and its associated infrastructure. This is a high priority objective of GCOS. [AU1] Figure 1. Performance of the GUAN upper-air temperature observations for December 2002 (Courtesy UK Met Office) Figure 1 shows that 118 stations had at least 90% of their reports received while 34 stations were unreliable. Some other fairly reliable stations are also indicated. . There remain outstanding issues on quality of all radiosonde measurements for climate purposes. Radiation errors remain issues for temperature, and standard radiosondes are not capable of measuring water vapour at low temperatures (< -20C) with sufficient accuracy for climate monitoring and climate change detection. A Reference Network of high-altitude high quality radiosondes is proposed. The routine observations from Boulder, Colorado currently provide the only reliable record of uppertropospheric and stratospheric (up to 25 km altitude) temperature and water vapour. In order to develop systematic observations across climate zones, a reference network of about 30 such sites should be established as a subset of GUAN to permit accurate measurements routinely to 5 hPa pressures, with soundings on both ascent and descent. Prototype reference sondes have been developed to meet these needs that include three thermistors with different radiation characteristics and water vapour sensors such as frost point hygrometers or chilled mirror devices. In addition to providing a network for climate change detection and new information on water vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that is vital for the greenhouse effect, this network will be extensively used to calibrate and validate various satellite observations including GPS occultation, and microwave and infrared sounding data on both temperature and water vapour. The operational observing program (frequency and instrumentation performance requirements) needs to be specified. Initiating and implementing this sub-network on a three year timetable is regarded as very high priority. If possible, these reference sites should be collocated and consolidated with other climate monitoring instrumentation (e.g., GPS column water vapour measurements, ozonesonde and perhaps GAW networks). In addition to establishing the observation sites, it will be important to have mechanisms for quality control, archive and analysis of the data – this should be considered as a special component of the GUAN. [AU2] 25 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT [Insert The full implementation and operation of the World Weather Watch upper-air network - in compliance with GCOS Climate Monitoring principles is a desired long term goal for both weather forecasting and climate monitoring. Additional data resources such as vertically pointing radar systems (wind profilers) and data from aircraft (both at flight level and on assent and decent) especially winds are becoming more important for weather analysis and forecasting and will contribute to climate applications particularly as they contribute to atmospheric re-analysis for climate applications. [AU3] The provision of meta-data concerning the instrumentation and data reduction and processing procedures is crucial to utilizing radiosonde data in climate applications. The historical record has innumerable problems relating to lack of inter-comparison information between types of sondes and sensor and exposure differences. Special efforts are required to obtain these meta-data records and to include them as important elements in the future observing strategy. [AU4] 4.1.2.b. Specific issues – Upper-air ECV The following sections elaborate further on the GCOS issues related to each ECV in the Atmospheric Domain - Upper Air. Table 13 lists the specific implementation actions proposed, suggests the bodies/institutions responsible for the action, the time-frame for the action to be accomplished, and the performance indicators or measures by which progress will be assessed. ECV – Upper Air temperature Specific microwave radiance (MSU and AMSU-A) data from satellites have become key elements of the historical climate record and they need to be continued into the future to sustain a long-term record. For climate applications the satellite systems must be designed and operated following the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles. Failure of the on-board AMSU-A instrument should be regarded as sufficient cause to launch a new satellite in the series.[AU5]. New satellite technology, such as GPS occultation, has been proven and is expected to be operational in the near future. Preparations to assimilate data from this source are important to plan for and the creation of a reference network of high altitude radiosonde stations providing calibration and validation data will contribute to this task. [AU2] ECV - Upper-air Wind Speed and Direction An international effort is needed involving the WWW/CBS and GCOS to help alleviate the effects that the problem of high cost of sondes is having on the network performance. [AU4] A further source of wind information is cloud motion vectors by tracking cloud elements and assigning their height by estimating their temperature to provide "satellite winds" over the ocean. ECV - Upper-air Water Vapour Many sources of water vapour data are becoming available from remote sensing from polar orbiting and geostationary satellites, and column integrated water vapor has been available from SSM/I for several years, but all require calibration and validation that would be enabled by the new GUAN sub-network [AU2]. The column water vapour observations over land from ground-based GPS receivers should be exploited globally through international coordination. Many nations are currently developing the capability to observe and analyse data from ground-based GPS receivers. These data provide continuous highquality estimates of column water vapour, which is a key greenhouse gas. Through WMO and other relevant international agencies, standards and protocols need to be developed for exchanging and archiving these data. The network of GPS receivers should then be extended across all land areas to provide global coverage, and the data should be freely exchanged for climate purposes. The feasibility of collocating GPS receivers at GSN sites should be considered. [AU6] 26 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT ECV - Cloud Properties Cloud feedback is considered to be the single most uncertain aspect of future climate projections and is responsible for much of the wide range of estimates of climate sensitivity in climate models. The accurate measurement of clouds and cloud properties is exceedingly difficult. The WCRP International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) has developed a continuous record of infrared and visible radiances since 1983 utilizing both geostationary and polar orbiting satellite data, but suffers from inhomogeneities (see Figure 2). Efforts of this nature that systematically process the data in space and time need to be continued and improved. Reprocessing the data to account for orbital drift and other issues has helped reduce uncertainties in the observations. Because of the importance of the observation of cloud amount, microphysical characteristics and radiative properties, and their variation in time, continued research on improving the observational system is required, and an overall strategy needs to be devised to provide systematic cloud observations. Gaps in the future record should be avoided if possible. [AU7] Figure 2. Time series of daily averages of tropical (20N to 20S) cloud amounts in % (below) versus Equator Crossing Time (ECT) of four satellites (above), from the Pathfinder-Atmosphere (PATMOS) project (Jacobowitz et al., 2003). Clouds are found to change systematically with time of day and, while these can be partially corrected for, the satellite drift adversely influences the quality of real trends. This highlights the needs for stable orbits and ECT in operating satellites and for reprocessing of data. [Jacobowitz et al., 2003: The AVHRR Pathfinder Atmosphere (PATMOS) climate dataset. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 84, 785-793] ECV- Earth Radiation Budget The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) measures the overall balance between the incoming energy from the sun and the outgoing thermal (long-wave) and reflected (shortwave) energy from the earth. It can only be measured from space. The radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere is the basic radiative forcing of the climate system. Measuring its variability in space and time over the globe provides insight into the overall response of the system to this forcing. The satellite measurements include solar irradiance observations as well as the broadband measurements of reflected solar and outgoing longwave radiation. Satellite observations should be continued without interruption and operational plans should provide for overlap so that accuracy and resolution issues are resolved to meet climate requirements. [AU8] 27 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Figure 3. Top section shows observations of total solar irradiance from a series of different instruments on satellites, as indicated. Absolute values are uncertain and differ by as much as 9 W m-2, so that continuous time series are only made possible by overlapping measurements from different satellites, as reconstructed at the bottom (Courtesy NASA) 28 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Table 12. Observation networks and systems and international data centres contributing to the upper-air component of the GCOS Atmospheric Domain ATMOSPHERIC DOMAIN UPPER-AIR ECV Contributing Network(s) International Data Center(s) and Archives Contributing Satellite Data 2AR FINDING Upper-air Temperature Microwave Radiances (e.g., AMSU-A) GPS Occultation Infrared radiances A10, A11a, A12, A13, A22, A23 Visible and Infrared (Cloud motion vectors) LIDAR (potentially; research) A10, A11a, A23, A22 Microwave (AMSUB) and infrared radiances GPS occultation A10, A15, A13, A14, A22, A23 Visible and Infrared radiances from geostationary and polar orbiter satellites Cloud Radar (Research) A15 Wide spectrum (e.g., GERB); from polar orbiter and geostationary satellites. A16 Upper-air Wind Speed and Direction Upper-air Water Vapour Cloud Properties Baseline GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN) Reference Network of High Altitude Radiosondes Full WWW/GOS Radiosonde Network Aircraft WWW/GDPS Centres Regional Meteorological Centres World Data Centre (WDCAsheville) GCOS GUAN Monitoring Centres (ECMWF, Hadley) GCOS GUAN Analysis Centres (Hadley Centre; NCDC) GCOS GUAN Archive (WDC-Asheville) GUAN Full WWW/GOS Radiosonde Network Radar (Profilers) Aircraft WWW/GDPS Centres Regional Meteorological Centres GCOS GUAN Monitoring Centres (ECMWF, Hadley) GCOS GUAN Analysis Centres (Hadley Centre; NCDC) GCOS GSN Archive (WDC-Asheville) GUAN Reference Network of High Altitude Radiosondes Full WWW/GOS Network Aircraft Ground Based GPS Receiver Network Surface observations (GSN, WWW). WWW/GDPS Centres Regional Meteorological Centres GCOS GUAN Monitoring Centres (ECMWF, Hadley) GCOS GUAN Analysis Centres (Hadley, NCDC) GCOS GSN Archive (WDC-Asheville) International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Earth Radiation Budget Earth Radiation Budget (upwelling radiation and solar irradiance) 29 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Table 13. Actions proposed (Atmospheric Domain – Upper-Air) Ref. No. AU1 AU2 AU3 AU4 AU5 AU6 Action (A): Implementation action proposed or required Who (W): Proposed responsible Parties/Institutions Time-frame (T): Action accomplished by date or continuation Performance Indicator(s) (P): Measures by which progress will be assessed A: Revamp and Complete Implementation of GUAN, including infrastructure and data management. W: National Services operating GUAN Stations in cooperation with GCOS Secretariat. T: Complete 2006 P: Data archive statistics in WDC. National communications to UNFCCC; %age of soundings received at WDC Cost: Up to 40 x cost of a station (~$300K) (see Thigpen) A: Specification and implementation of Reference Network of high-altitude high quality Radiosondes, operational requirements including data management, archiving and analysis, W: NMSs or national research agencies, in cooperation on planning with WCRP-AOPC T: Specification and plan by 2005. Implementation started. Completed by 2008 P: Plan published. Data management system in place. Network functioning. Full data available by 2008 Cost: About $10M for implementation and about $15M annual operating costs A: Implementation of the WWW/GOS Upper-air observing system compatible with the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles W: National Services in cooperation with WMO/CBS and WMO/RAs T: Continuing P: %age of real-time UA data with no quality problems; %age of soundings reaching 30 hPa Cost: Negligible as normal practice should be followed A: Address radiosonde infrastructure issues such as meta-data records and intercomparisons W: WMO/ CBS and CIMO in cooperation with GCOS AOPC T: Develop solution(s) by 2009 communicate to National Services. P: %age of sites giving metadata to WDC. Cost: Negligible as normal practice should be followed A: Commitment by Satellite Operators to a continuing system of satellites providing specific microwave radiance data following the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles. W: Satellite Operators T: Continuing P: Quality and quantity of data; availability of data in WDC-A; monthly maps and products. Cost: Possible increased launches due to microwave instrument failure A: Develop an internationally agreed plan for a network of ground based GPS receivers And associated data processing, standards and protocols, data management. W: WMO/CIMO and CBS in cooperation with AOPC. T: Plan finished by 2005. Implementation continuing (part exists already) P: Network designed and in place; no. of sites reporting data that is received by major real-time centres Cost: Small 30 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 AU7 AU7 AU8 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT A: Ensure continuation of ISCCP record of visible and infrared radiances and include additional data streams as they become available. Apply GCOS CMPs. W: Satellite Operators esp. NASA for processing T: Continuous P: Commitment to long-term availability of global homogeneous data at high frequency Cost: Continuation of current expenditure Need: For development of strategy for operational monitoring of cloud properties A: Research to improve cloud property observations in three dimensions W: Research funders, satellite operators Time frame: Continuous P: New cloud products Cost: Research budget A: Ensure continuation of Earth Radiation Budget Observations following GCOS CMPs W: Satellite Operators T: Present P: Commitment to long-term data availability at archives. Global energy balanced budget. Cost: Continuation of current expenditure 4.1.3. Atmospheric Domain – Composition 4.1.3.a. General A number of atmospheric trace constituents in addition to water vapour must be monitored because of their important role in the forcing of climate. Table 14 lists the observational networks and satellite data required for implementation of GCOS in the domain of atmospheric composition, sorted according to each GCOS ECV. The associated existing international data-centre facilities are also listed. A key objective of GCOS is the monitoring of distributions of the main greenhouse gases to enable determination of their sources and sinks. This requires continuous and homogeneous observations of the spatial and temporal distribution of gases including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the principal halocarbons. This should be accomplished through the continued support of current stations, the enhancement of the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network in selected regions, and the utilization and further deployment of appropriate satellite observations. These capabilities should be fully exploited by the development and implementation of real-time analysis and re-analysis products for these variables. [AC7, AC1, AC2] Ozone is a strongly reactive greenhouse gas. It is the most radiatively important gas in the stratosphere, where it determines the vertical temperature profile and protects the earth's surface from harmful levels of UV-radiation. Tropospheric ozone also plays a significant role in climate forcing and at the surface is a determinant of air quality. Monitoring of ozone requires complementary satellite and in situ measurements. The GAW Global Ozone Observing System (GO3OS) has been organized to monitor ozone and can provide a key observational resource for climate applications. There is a need for improved distribution and calibration of ground-based observations (especially in the Southern Hemisphere) to support the use of satellite data for global monitoring of ozone. [AC3, AC7] Atmospheric aerosols are minor constituents of the atmosphere by mass, but a critical component in terms of impacts on climate and especially climate change. Aerosols influence the global radiation balance by directly scattering and absorption of radiation and indirectly through influencing cloud reflectivity, cloud cover and cloud lifetime. The IPCC has identified anthropogenic aerosols as the most uncertain climate forcing constituent. Aerosol measurements are part of the GAW baseline station observing program - where the intent is to obtain measurements representative of the major geographical and exposure regimes; there are also relevant radiative measurements in BSRN. Several limited regional networks of measurements directly related to aerosol properties (e.g. sun photometers, networks focused 31 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT on acidification issues, and networks operated as part of research programs) have been established often as part of the support to experimental satellite system calibration/validation activity. GAW, its partners (including the space agencies) and GCOS need to consolidate baseline measurements and further develop a strategy for obtaining continuous homogeneous observations to characterize the nature and radiative properties of aerosols. [AC7] The use of aircraft for airborne sampling of all atmospheric composition ECVs has proven to be a powerful research tool. The lack of vertical profile sampling is a common deficiency in the verification of climate model predictions. The organization of systematic aircraft sampling campaigns would help alleviate this deficiency. [AC4] 4.1.3.b. Specific Issues – Composition ECV The following sections elaborate further on the GCOS issues related to each ECV in the Atmospheric Domain -Composition. Table 15 lists the implementation actions proposed, a suggestion regarding who should be responsible for the action, the time frame for the action and proposed performance indicators (measures of progress). ECV – Carbon Dioxide Both the baseline and comprehensive networks for CO2 need further development. An in situ network of baseline sites needs to be identified and consolidated to provide homogeneous data to monitor changes in the meridional gradient of CO2. The monitoring and analysis centres for this baseline network need to be identified. The baseline network would be built on the existing GAW networks for CO2. The baseline network would be complemented by a comprehensive network involving satellite and in situ measurements. Some data are already available for assimilation in real-time and reanalysis systems or for validation of such systems. The baseline system could be developed immediately within the GAW community working with the broader scientific community (through the auspices of WCRP in particular). Some additional sites may be required, especially over continental areas. The utility of the comprehensive network will be enhanced as assimilation techniques improve and new types of satellite data become available. [AC5] ECV – Methane and Other Greenhouse Gases There are several networks dedicated to the monitoring of methane and other long-lived greenhouse gases, including NOAA/CMDL , the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gas Experiment (AGAGE) and the University of California at Irving (UIC). The networks employ a variety of techniques including flask sampling and continuous monitoring. In addition there are other stations operated independently of the larger networks. There is no central clearing house or organized network able to make a consistent data set with traceable gas standards available in real-time. If appropriately supported, the WMO/GAW could take on the leadership role to organize the overarching global network, promote common standards, research for new observing systems and practices, and lead inter-comparisons. The assimilation techniques that are being developed for the determination of CO2 distributions may be extended to some other greenhouse gases. [AC1, AC2] ECV - Ozone The in situ networks, operated under the GAW programme, require further support for routine calibration and intercomparison of instrumentation. There are many satellite missions that include measurements of ozone, including some instruments on operational platforms. Ongoing work is nevertheless needed to ensure continuity and homogeneity in the data record. The specification of the ground-based ozone baseline network needs to be defined. The in situ measurements are not well distributed geographically and there is a need for more systematic observing program. WMO/GAW working in cooperation with the scientific community (WCRP and AOPC) should 32 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT undertake this task. The in situ network will comprise ground based ozonesondes (collocated with reference high-altitude radiosondes, see III. B.2.a), ozone lidars, and instruments utilizing the Umkehr technique – Dobson and Brewer Instruments. Given the importance of ozone in controlling UV radiation and its role in climate forcing, these network changes should be implemented as soon as practicable. [AC3] ECV- Aerosol Properties Comprehensive measurements of aerosols are available at a very limited number of sites, reflecting the difficulty in developing an effective and feasible observing strategy. The most extensive observation for aerosols is the optical depth measured by satellite and ground-based instruments. The latter are coordinated in part by GAW and its partners, including NASA/AERONET. In addition, routine vertical profiling of scattering from ground LIDARS is under development, as are more advanced satellite aerosol sensors. More measurements from aircraft and ground stations are needed. A concerted effort to integrate the available satellite and ground-based measurements of aerosol optical properties and to expand the above measurements has begun and is an important step in developing a system for global aerosol monitoring. The development and generation of consistent products combining the various sources of data are again essential. Furthermore, the physical and chemical composition of aerosols needs to be routinely monitored at a selected number of globally-distributed surface sites. Finally there should be a re-processing of past satellite observations using better calibration, cloud screening and aerosol micro-physics to obtain a historical record. The development of a coordinated strategy to monitor and analyze the distribution of aerosol around the globe needs to involve a broad community of research and operational agencies. Existing programs monitoring some aerosol properties include GAW, BSRN and AeroNet. The potential to develop common measurement and data archive and access protocols needs to be explored. The research community is currently developing the techniques to provide more comprehensive measurements of aerosol. A series of workshops could facilitate the efficient progress of these developments. The coordination and consolidation of a global baseline network for aerosol optical depth should occur as soon as possible. The development of the more comprehensive system will depend upon progress in the research community. [AC6] Table 14. Observational networks and systems and international data centres contributing to the GCOS Atmospheric Domain - Composition. ATMOSPHERIC DOMAIN COMPOSITION ECV Contributing Network(s) International Data Center(s) and Archives Contributing Satellite Data 2AR FINDING Carbon Dioxide World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases – WDCGG (JMA) A17 World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases – WDCGG (JMA) As above Methane and other greenhouse gases GAW Continuous Monitoring Network GAW Flask Sampling Network Airborne Sampling GAW Continuous Monitoring Network GAW Flask Sampling Network Airborne sampling 33 High resolution IR (eg AIRS) UV/Vis (eg SCIAMACHY) A17, A19 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 Ozone Ozonesonde Network Ozone LIDAR Network Column Ozone Network (Filter, Dobson and Brewer stations) Aerosol Properties BSRN Sun Photometer Networks (AERONET) GAW Baseline Network Lidar Network DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Center (WOUDC) Can. Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NCSC) Archive (USA) Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ –NASA) Archive IR nadir(eg AIRS) IR limb (eg MIPAS) UV (e.g. GOME) Stellar occultation (GOMOS) A17, A18 World Data Center for Aerosols (WDCA) at EC/JRC Ispra, IT Solar Occultation (eg SAGE) Vis/Near-IR (e.g. MERIS) A19 Table 15. Actions proposed (Atmospheric Domain – Composition) Ref. No. AC1 AC2 AC3 Action (A): Implementation action proposed or required Who (W): Proposed responsible Parties/Institutions Time-frame (T): Action accomplished by date or continuous Performance indicator(s) (P): Measures by which progress will be assessed A: Develop an overarching mechanism to coordinate the many in situ GHG observing networks and initiatives, to promote common standards and procedures, encourage data submission to WDC and to lead inter-comparison activities. W: GCOS Project Office in cooperation with WMO/GAW and WDC in Japan T: Plan ready by 2005 and implemented by 2007 P: Plan developed and agreed to by advisory and governing bodies; %age of comprehensive and consistent data in WDC Cost: $250K for meetings and consultancies A: Develop a comprehensive plan for the enhancement of the GAW stations to meet climate requirements - GHGs and Aerosols. Initiate enhancement. W: GCOS Project Office in cooperation with WMO GAW and National Services, Research Institutions. T: Plan by 2008, agreed global baseline composition network complete by 2010. P: Publish plan; %age of data available at WDC Cost: $250K for meetings and consultancies A: Define the Baseline Ozone Observing Network and initiate implementation required. W: WCRP, WMO GAW, AOPC, GCOS Project Office and National Services and Research Institutions Time frame: Agree on network by 2005, implementation continuing. P: Network specification. %age of data submitted to data centres Cost: Implementation costs for each new site 34 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 AC4 AC5 AC6 AC7 4.2. DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT A: Develop a comprehensive plan to utilize research aircraft and kites in a systematic campaign to observe the vertical profiles of GHGs and aerosols. W: Planning - IGBP. Implementation- National Services and Research Institutions T: Plan by 2005, implementation continuing P(s): Published Plan. Data submitted to data centres. Cost: Large, dependent upon research use of aircraft; kites cost $600K per station per 5 years A: Specify and further develop the CO2 Baseline Network (continuous and flask sampling) W: GAW in cooperation with GCOS Project Office T: Specification by 2005. Implementation continuous P: Plan. No. of sites providing consistent data to WDC Cost: ? A: Develop a coordinated strategy to monitor and analyse the distribution of aerosols and aerosol properties. W: WCRP, IGBP and AOPC in cooperation with Satellite Operators, WMO GAW T: Strategy presented to organizations by 2006 with proposals for implementation by 2009 P: Strategy document, followed by implementation of strategy Cost: Research A: Develop a comprehensive plan and strategy for the provision of operational satellite data in support of GHG, ozone and aerosol integrated analysis requirements. W: Satellite Operators (CEOS) in cooperation with WCRP, GCOS Project Office and analysis centres. T: Plan and strategy by 2005. P: Published plan and commitment to implementation Cost: Large OCEAN DOMAIN CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM It has now been demonstrated that we can effectively observe climate changes in the ocean at global scales. However, despite significant progress, ocean observing networks and associated infrastructure and product systems are not adequate to meet the specific needs of the UNFCCC for most variables and in most regions of the planet, particularly the southern hemisphere. There is pressing need to obtain global coverage using proven observing technologies and established implementation infrastructure. The ocean is characterized by wide variation in space and time scales and the resolution of climate change signals within the highly variable ocean is a significant challenge. The community has agreed that an integrated, composite approach is appropriate for both the surface and subsurface essential climate variables. These composite observing networks make use of a mix of remote and in situ technologies in order to optimize utility of existing observing assets. With present technology it is impractical to observe directly all variability scales over the full depth and extent of the global ocean. Instead, a mix of approaches are used that endeavor to maximize the usefulness of the information and to minimize the uncertainty of climate products derived from the data we can collect. Blending, merging and ocean data assimilation techniques are a critical element for realizing this potential and more adequately meeting the objectives of the global climate observing system and the UNFCCC. The strategy detailed below does assume that the observing system is being maintained not only for climate but also in support of NWP, ocean prediction, marine environmental monitoring, among other things. These other uses not only distribute the responsibility for support but also permit an approach that is more comprehensive in terms of space and time sampling and, in places, variables than would otherwise be sustainable from the point of view of climate variability and change alone. Issues of quality, global coverage and data exchange, however, are driven to a significant extent by climate considerations. 35 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Sea-ice variables are included in this Section. Whereas the Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate (hereafter 2AR) referred simply to sea-ice, within this plan we explicitly consider the relevant essential sea-ice variables, including extent and concentration, thickness and motion. The need for global coverage and sustained systems is prominent in the actions described below. In addition, there are challenges to develop robust and effective autonomous and remote approaches for several essential variables and several actions specifically target this need. As is done elsewhere in this Plan, the actions target both baseline and reference networks, to ensure robust high-quality climate products, as well as the comprehensive global networks that provide the backbone for regular, comprehensive product generation and reanalysis. Both these approaches are also important for attribution and support climate change predictions. Actions are identified to ensure data are provided to test climate models and to evaluate the realism of simulations and predictions. Though, in general, the ocean plays a secondary role in the forcing of the climate system, several actions are identified that will contribute to improved understanding and reduced uncertainty, particularly for the carbon cycle. Regional scales pose particular challenges both in terms of monitoring and in terms of testing and improving regional climate projections. The actions below provide selective enhancements and strategies to address these issues. The emergence of a Coastal Ocean Observing System provides a systematic pathway for both consideration of climate requirements and implementation, including issues relating to ecosystems and the marine environment in general. The coastal regions are particularly vulnerable to changes in sea level and/or changes in wave climates and such considerations also influence the actions described here. Proper attribution of the causes of ocean change requires a commitment to characterizing ocean variability. Comprehensive and baseline networks, as well as reference stations can provide the needed information. Global coverage and long-term commitment are the most significant challenges. The ocean community has reached agreement on an initial integrated and composite system, developed new technologies, established mechanisms to foster more effective international collaboration, and begun the demonstration of community capability to generate ocean climate products. Action: Through JCOMM and other relevant bodies, and with oversight and monitoring from relevant GCOS bodies, develop, implement and sustain the initial global ocean observing system surface and subsurface comprehensive, baseline and reference networks to ensure the global coverage and long-term records needed for climate change detection. (O1/OF13) Action: Through the Ocean Observations Panel for Climate and related groups, continue the review and assessment of the integrated and composite approach, including through updates and revision of the strategic plans every five years. (O2/OF1) Action: Focus implementation through the Joint Technical Commission of Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, and other mechanisms as appropriate, in order to provide efficient and effective pathway for international collaboration and coordination. (O3/OF1) Action: Support pre-operational demonstration projects (e.g., GODAE) and other initiatives in order to generate integrated and synthesized products and to develop the infrastructure needed to support the on-going generation of such products. (O4/OF1) Research programs are the primary source of funding for many elements of the present ocean climate observing system. Continued strong support involvement of the ocean research community is needed. An orderly process to bring new technology into pilot project use and then sustained use in the ocean climate observing system has been agreed. Institutional encouragement and financial support is needed to ensure that this process results in the sustained operation of the agreed initial system. 36 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Action: Through collaboration with CLIVAR and other related research initiatives, encourage the continued involvement of research in the development of new technology and methods and in the evaluation of the scientific effectiveness of the ocean climate observing system. (O5/OF2) Action: Promote the effective and efficient implementation and maintenance of the ocean climate observing system as a high priority objective of research institutions and agencies, including through the Partnership for Observations of the Global Ocean (POGO). (O6/OF2) Obtaining full national and regional benefit from GCOS efforts will depend on the development of integrated regional and national observing systems and special products for shallow sea and coastal waters. National and regional participation in the GOOS Coastal Module provides one framework for coordinated development and operation of observing efforts in national waters. Action: Through the GOOS Steering Committee, the OOPC and the Coastal Ocean Observations Panel, ensure the requirements for coastal observations such as sea level and sea state are fully taken into account in the Implementation Plan of the Coastal Ocean Observing System. (O7/OF16) Action: Through the GOOS Steering Committee and its Panels and the Intergovernmental Committee for GOOS and its Regional Alliances, encourage and ensure that regional and coastal observing contributions and associated products are integrated with the systems of global climate and that such bodies and their agents for actions are fully aware of the requirements of the UNFCCC. (O8/OF17) 4.2.1. Oceanic Domain – Surface 4.2.1.a. General This section provides a summary of the status of existing network contributions against the Essential Climate Variables of the 2AR. The Classification categories indicate the degree to which the contribution is sustained (research, pilot research, pre-operational/pilot, operational, as used by JCOMM, IOC, GOOS, …). The Implementation Status indicates the degree to which the existing effort is adequate within the framework of the agreed composite integrated system and the agreed GCOS and UNFCCC goals, including accuracy, resolution, global coverage, metadata and quality, among other things. Fully adequate indicates the network requires no further enhancement/adjustment. Adequate indicates the network meets most (75%?) but not all of the desired characteristics. Marginal indicates the network meets some (50-65%) of the desired characteristics but requires significant enhancement/improvement. Unsatisfactory indicates the network meets only a few (20-30%) of the desired characteristics. Missing indicates the network makes no functional contribution to the sustained observing system at present. The absence of global coverage and the lack of sufficient high-quality observations of the key variables remain the key weaknesses in the surface ocean network. For a few variables such as sea-surface temperature (SST) and mean sea level pressure, cost-effective technologies are available to address this weakness. For other variables, considerable research and development are required. Action: Support improved metadata collection and management within the VOSCLIM pilot project and the installation, as feasible, of improved integrated measurement systems on selected lines and at agreed surface reference sites (moorings). (O9/OF3) 37 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Action: Through JCOMM, support the development and maintenance of a balanced, integrated global surface measurement system (VOS, drifters, moored buoys). (O10/OF3) Action: Through dialogue and interaction with the satellite community (e.g., via IGOS-P), maintain a suite of satellite systems that deliver global coverage of the essential surface ocean climate variables such as SST and surface wind. (O11/OF3) Action: Promote the development and testing of new technologies and approaches, particularly autonomous approaches for non-physical variables and for difficult to measure fields such as sea-surface salinity. (O12/OF3) A sparse global array of surface reference moorings can provide essential air-sea flux information for testing models and the evaluation of climate change projections. It also can provide needed platforms for development of new observing system sensors. Action: Implement a sparse global array of around 29 reference moorings with high quality instrumentation and, through the joint WGNE/OOPC SURFA project, ensure such data are routinely available for testing and validation of NWP surface flux estimate and other climate surface products. (O13/OF4) Action: Promote the use of surface reference sites as multi-disciplinary sites (laboratories) for testing parameterizations and providing comprehensive time-series for testing climate and earth system models. (O14/OF4) Action: Where practical, integrate the surface reference sites with other related initiatives that also require fixed-location time-series measurements, for example the Dedicated Data Sites of the GODAE High-Resolution SST Project and of the ocean satellite colour community (e.g., SEAWIFS). (O15/OF4) Table 16. Status (end 2003) of the implementation of the Ocean Domain- Surface networks and systems and their assocated coordinating body Component Network Global surface drifting buoy array (1250) Implementation status ~75% for SST, ~30% for SLP Coordinating body JCOMM Data Buoy Cooperation Panel JCOMM Tropical Mooring Implementation Panel JCOMM Int’l Time series group Enhanced Equipment Cost ~1. ~ 2 startup then ~ 1 plus ongoing R&D ? Global tropical mooring network (119) ~75% VOSCLIM Global reference mooring network (29) GOSUD Sea Surface Salinity SOOP pCO2 ~25% ~15% ~20%? International Carbon Sustain surface vector wind sat. ? CEOS, IGOS ~2 start-up then ~0.7 ~0.2 ~10 startup then ~5 plus ongoing R&D Enhanced # personnel None 5? 1? 25-100? ? 38 ? ? GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 (two wide-swath scatterometers highly desired) Sustain SeaWifsclass ocean color sat Sustain TRMMclass microwave SST sat Sustain Topex/Poseidon accuracy altimetry 4.2.1.b. DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT ? CEOS, IGOS ? ? ? CEOS, IGOS ? ? Til 200? CEOS, IGOS? ? ? Specific issues – surface ECV ECV- Sea Surface Temperature At present levels of coverage and operations, global analyses of SST are not adequate to meet all the needs of the UNFCCC. However, global climate-accuracy SST analysis is achievable through enhanced global deployment of existing technology and the improved operation of satellite sensors. The networks and satellite systems that contribute to the observation of SST and are included in the development of global integrated products are summarized in Table 17. Table 17. Networks and Systems contributing to the observation of SST Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Satellite IR (polar) Operational Adequate Surface drifters Pre-operational Marginal and operational Tropical moored buoy network Pre-operational Marginal Satellite microwave Research pilot Unsatisfactory Satellite geostationary IR Operational Unsatisfactory VOSCLIM Pre-operational Unsatisfactory VOS Operational Unsatisfactory Reference network Research/pilot Marginal (just) and operational Issues relative to the observation and analysis of SST include: There is on-going debate about the definition of sea surface temperature, taking into account that each of these networks samples the surface and near-surface waters differently. 39 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Global coverage with even quality is an issue for both satellite (cloud detection, aerosols, precipitation, sea-spray/fog, in the vicinity of sea-ice, etc.) and situ systems (global sampling, uncertainty with depth of measurement,etc.). Need improved accuracy from most of the networks. Metadata collection and exchange, and standards, are inadequate. Need integrated, climate quality products to overcome deficiencies of products based on subsets of the available data, including estimates of uncertainty. Action: Support an integrated and coordinated sustained approach to satellite SST measurements (a mix of polar and geostationary IR measurements and microwave). Enhanced coverage and improved mechanisms for data exchange are needed for geostationary data and sustained support is required for microwave instruments. The GODAE High-Resolution SST Project (GHRSST) provides a mechanism for delivering these enhanced systems. (O16/OF5) Action: Continue support for research into the process that affect surface and near-surface sea temperatures (skin, sub-skin, mixed-layer and “bulk” temperatures) and the relationship between these different forms of sea-surface temperature. (O17/OF5) Action: Achieve global coverage through enhancements to the surface drifter program (around 1250 drifters in all), to the tropical moored buoy program (around 120 moorings in all), and continued support of the VOS. (O18/OF5) Action: Ensure high-quality data through enhanced metadata collection and distribution (e.g., the VOSCLIM project) and support for high-quality instruments. (O19/OF5) Action: Seek greater integration between the SST observation and analysis community and those communities providing cloud and aerosol estimates in order to improve the quality of satellite IR SST retrievals. (O20/OF5) Action: Through GHRSST and the SST climate community, develop integrated, climate quality products to overcome deficiencies of products based on subsets of the available data. Such products should include estimates of uncertainty. (O21/OF5) ECV - Sea Level Present knowledge of global sea-level variability and change is not adequate. Monitoring of global sea level is technically feasible at present, but requires at minimum a global array of geocentrically-located high-accuracy water level gauges (86), continued operation of high-precision satellite altimetry and effective data exchange between nations. Adequately characterizing extreme regional sea-level events requires that high frequency sea-level observations need to be taken and exchanged and historical data from tide gauges need to be provided to the international data centres. Capacity-building efforts in developing countries for undertaking local sea-level-change measurements can benefit the global system and foster needed regional enhancement. Table 18. Networks and systems contributing to the observation and global analysis of Sea Level Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status GLOSS GCOS baseline Pre-operational Marginal 40 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT network and operational High-precision Altimetry Pre-operational Adequate GLOSS Core Network plus regional/local Research Unsatisfactory Sub-surface T network Pre-operational DRAFT pilot/Pre-operational Marginal Issues related to the sea level observing and integrated global analysis include: Continuity of satellite high-precision measurements Number and global distribution of geo-centrically located water level gauges Timely exchange of sea level data Regional and local gauges for impact assessment and monitoring Capacity building for SIDS and developing nations. Action: Through GLOSS of JCOMM, implement a minimum global array of geocentrically-located high-accuracy water level gauges (estimated number 86). (O22/OF8) Action: Through IGOS and its member satellite agencies, seek commitment to continued operation satellite altimetry (in accordance with GCOS Principles). The consensus of the community is that the commitment should include one high-precision altimeter at all times with planned extensive overlaps between successive missions, and two low precision but high resolution altimeters to provide the needed sampling. (O23/OF8) Action: Consistent with the now agreed Policy (IOC Resolution XXII-6: IOC OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA EXCHANGE POLICY), GLOSS should monitor and encourage effective data exchange between nations. (O24/OF8) Action: Through GLOSS and the GOOS Coastal Ocean Observations Panel and its Implementation Plan, ensure high frequency sea-level observations are taken and exchanged and historical data from tide gauges are provided to the international data centres. (O25/OF8) Action: Through GLOSS and the coordinated capacity building and training programs of GOOS and JCOMM, encourage efforts in developing countries for undertaking local sea-levelchange measurements and foster needed regional enhancement. (O26/OF9) ECV- Sea surface salinity At present, global knowledge of SSS is not adequate. Improvement in SSS analysis accuracy is limited by available technology. New satellite sensors hold promise of improved global coverage, although special in situ observing efforts will be needed to evaluate sustained sensor performance. Networks contributing to global sea surface salinity observations are shown in Table 19. Table 19. Sea Surface Salinity observing networks and systems 41 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Subset of VOS Pre-operational Unsatisfactory Research pilots Unsatisfactory Research Research/ Marginal Vessels/repeat Research pilot DRAFT DRAFT under GOSUD initiative Tropical/reference moored buoy network hydrography Argo and SOOP XCTD Research/ Unsatisfactory Research pilot Surface drifters Research Missing Issues relative to the observation of sea surface salinity include: Do not have a solution for global, high-quality SSS measurements Need satellites for global coverage (prototypes scheduled) Quality and reliability, and coverage, of VOS and other surface in situ platforms Argo not designed for SSS, but could contribute Action: Through the Global Ocean Surface Underway Data (pilot) Project (GOSUD) of IODE and JCOMM, and through collaboration with CLIVAR, develop a robust program for seasurface salinity measurements on selected VOS (preferable VOSCLIM, SOOP or research vessels; [perhaps get a target number from GOSUD]), fixed-location buoys and, as appropriate drifting and autonomous platforms. This action should also embraced surface current measurements to the extent that such measurements are available from these platforms. (O27/OF6) Action: Support research efforts to demonstrate the feasibility of measuring salinity from space and, in particular current efforts through SMOS and Aquarius. (O28/O6) ECV - Ocean color Knowledge of ocean ecosystem change is not adequate at present. Satellites provide global coverage of surface ocean colour, but the linkage between ocean colour and ecosystem variable remains limited. Research is underway to improve knowledge of the relationships between ocean colour and ecosystem variables, including chlorophyll-a. Enhanced in situ sampling of ocean colour and ecosystem variables is technically feasible.Ocean colour as it relates to carbon and marine ecosystems and living marine resources is observed through the networks and satellite sensors shown in Table 20. 42 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Table 20. Ocean color observing systems Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Satellite ocean colour Pre-operational Marginal SOOP pCO2 Pre-operational Unsatisfactory Reference moorings Research/Research pilot Unsatisfactory The issues related to the development of an observing system that will meet GCOS needs are: On-going research is needed to relate ocean colour to needed climate variables of the carbon system and ecosystems. As yet, there are no commitments to a coherent and sustained ocean satellite colour program. Standards remain to be agreed. Global coverage of the in situ networks remains problematical because of lack of suitable autonomous instruments – a technology challenge. Action: In view of the known ability of ocean colour satellites to generate global information relevant to ocean ecosystems, ocean biology, and their variability, support the plans of IGOS and their member satellite agencies to implement a sustained and continuous series of ocean colour satellite sensors, with full and open exchange of such data. The International Ocean Colour Coordination Group, acting for GOOS and the climate community should be given oversight to ensure the measurements are implemented in accordance with GCOS Principles and the requirements outlined in the Second Adequacy Report and to promote associated research. (O29/OF9) Action: Through collaboration with the Coastal Ocean Observations Panel of GOOS, who has oversight for biogeochemical and ecosystem observations, and relevant research programs of the IGBP, encourage the development of robust and cost-effective autonomous in situ instrument for biogeochemical and ecosystem variables. (O30/OF9) Action: [An explicit action against pCO2?] (O31/OF9) ECV – Sea State Global observations of sea state are primarily relevant to coastal and offshore impacts, but also some relevance to monitoring changes, e.g. in winds, storms and extreme events. Table 21. Networks and satellite data contributing to the observation of sea state. Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status NWP (indirect) estimates Operational Adequate Reference buoy networks Research & Marginal Operational 43 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT Satellite altimetry Pre-operational Marginal Satellite SAR Research Missing VOS visual Operational Unsatisfactory DRAFT DRAFT Issues relative to sea state observations and analysis: Accuracy of NWP products limited by validation and calibration data, and their utility is limited over the shallower coastal regions. Reliable surface wind data (observations and RA) are essential. RA40 integrates sea state estimates within assimilation system. The existing reference buoys are limited in terms of global distribution and location (few open ocean sites), and are mostly not at the sites of other ECV reference sites. Altimetry provides only significant wave height and coverage is limited relative to synoptic scales of variability. SAR gives the most useful data but is rarely exchanged or available in a way that impacts estimates for climate. Action: need ? (O32/ Finding?) ECV – Surface current Surface current is primarily relevant to climate in terms of surface Ekman drift and its role in the overturning ocean circulation and heat and freshwater transport. Research also suggests a role in determining air-sea exchanges of momentum (wind-stress). Table 22. Surface current observing systems and networks. Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Drifting buoys Pre-operational Marginal Tropical moored buoy array and other surface moorings Research/Research pilot Unsatisfactory Pattern tracking (AVHRR) Research Unsatisfactory Altimeter geostrophic Research pilot Unsatisfactory Research pilot Unsatisfactory Pre-operational Marginal Blended estimates altimeter, in situ, …) (wind, Indirect from assimilation as in GODAE Issues: In situ networks are very limited in terms of global coverage and sampling relative to the energetic space and time scales. Drifting buoys have uneven drift characteristics (drogues) and no agreed standard. 44 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Lack a systematic approach for data exchange, assembly, quality control and archiving (no designated centres). Indirect estimates, including with models (GODAE) are data limited and subject to biases. Lack of validation data mean little is known about the quality relative to climate. However, such approaches provide the only long-term viable approach. Action: needed? (O33/ Finding ?) ECV – Sea Ice Knowledge of sea-ice changes is not adequate. A sea-ice component of cryosphere research effort is ongoing. Recent satellite launches including ICESat, CryoSat and the AMSR-E instrument on Aqua will provide new remote ice measurements. In situ observing efforts and climate ice analysis and re-analysis are needed. The current status of observations of sea ice extent and concentration, thickness, and drift are listed in Table 23, Table 24, and Table 25 respectively. Other key sea ice parameters which could be considered are: Sea ice surface temperature; Sea ice type (First year/multiyear (seasonal perennial), fast ice…); Snow layer thickness; Sea ice albedo; Melt pond fraction; Length of the melt season. Other important high latitude issues include: continental ice discharge; iceberg distribution; under ice ocean parameters . A key overarching synthesis issue is the development of techniques for assimilation of the whole range of sea ice data into sea ice/ocean models to provide consistent analyses of sea ice concentration, thickness, motion and other parameters. Table 23. Sea ice extent and concentration observing systems Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Satellite passive Operational/research Satisfactory (but not during ice melt and continued work on algorithms needed) SAR Operational/research Potentially satisfactory Satellite visual Operational/research Unsatisfactory (clouds) Satellite IR? Operational ? In situ - visual Operational (SOOP? Inadequate microwave Aircraft survey?) Issues: Ongoing global time series are available from passive microwave through satellite era but sole reliance on microwave sensors is not appropriate, given their limitations in imaging the warm and wet ice-snow surfaces that predominate under melting conditions. SAR data are crucial to the global integrated product but some SAR data are unavailable due to commercial restrictions/cost. 45 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Regional analyses are produced at a number of centres – need for integration with satellite analyses to produce an integrated global product. Action: Promote additional evaluation of sea-ice remote sensing algorithms with the goal of documenting and improving their accuracy, followed by application of these improved algorithms to historical reconstruction of ice extent and concentration. (O34/OF7) Action: Ensure sustained satellite, SAR, microwave, visible and IR operations and improved availability of commercial Radar data for climate. (O35/OF7) Action: Develop integrated products at relevant centres including use of assimilation techniques. (O36/OF7) Table 24. Networks and systems contributing to the observation of sea ice thickness Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Upward looking sonar (moored) Research Unsatisfactory Satellite altimetry Research Unsatisfactory (especially in SH) Upward looking sonar (submarine) Operational (military)/research. Limited coverage/not sustained Unsatisfactory SAR (Radarsat) Research Unsatisfactory In situ drilling Research - limited coverage/not sustained Unsatisfactory Strainmeter measurement of propagating swell Research/not sustained Unsatisfactory/non existent Issues: Satellite altimetry techniques still under development but show promise. Techniques for NH demonstrated. Development for SH problematic. Potential for true global coverage not yet achieved. Remote sensing from space shows best potential for future for Arctic. The estimate of ice thickness however depends on the knowledge of seasonal and regional snow depth and densities. The validation of the space-borne altimeter technique requires in-situ measurements such as submarine upward-looking sonar transects. Present ULS array is very sparse and inadequate. Problem for SH is destruction of instruments by icebergs though less so if ULS themselves are deep . Need to identify and implement array needed for effective calibration of satellite remote sensing from altimetry. ULS from submarines have provided input to climate monitoring from historical observations to date but are unlikely to provide significant input for the future. 46 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT The Radarsat Geophysical Processor System at the Alaska SAR facility can provide some quantitative ice-thickness information at the thin end of the distribution, but precision is low. Highresolution radar images are costly and the data source is not assured. Action: Make further efforts to develop satellite remote sensing techniques building on present efforts and output from Cryosat. (O35/OF7) Action: Actively plan and implement an in situ network to provide ground truth and calibration for remote sensing for the Arctic. (O36/OF7) Action: Continue and strengthen ULS measurements at key choke points (e.g. Fram Strait) and consider options for move to operational status. (O37/OF7) Action: Strengthen in situ network in Southern Hemisphere (O38/OF7) Table 25. Observing systems contributing to sea ice drift observations and analysis Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Sea ice buoys (Arctic) Research/operational Satisfactory/unsatisfactory Sea ice buoys (Antarctic) Research/pilot Unsatisfactory Doppler moored sonar Research/piot Unsatisfactory Image pattern recognition (satellite remote sensing) Research /pilot Unsatisfactory Issues: Arctic ocean ice buoys are located/deployed primarily on perennial ice so the seasonal ice pack is poorly sampled. The Antarctic buoy programme array is small with little engagement of operational agencies. The large seasonal variability of Antarctic sea ice is a strong limitation to lifetime on the ice. The use of the passive microwave record for deducing ice motion in both hemispheres, starting in the 1970’s, is under active development. However, it will be necessary to identify and correct the source of occasional significant disparity of ice speeds measured by buoys and computed satellite imagery. Preliminary comparison of ice motion fields from the Radarsat Geophysical Processor System (RGPS)with other satellite-derived ice motion fields is promising . Ice motion can also be measured effectively using Doppler sonar moored beneath the ice. This method may be especially attractive in marginal and seasonal sea ice zones where the survival time of drifting buoys is very short. Action: Further evaluate remote sensing techniques to derive ice motion data. (O39/OF7) Action: Explore techniques for assimilation of data the various data sources into homogeneous, gridded ice motion fields. (O40/OF7) 47 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Action: Seek to strengthen operational agency involvement in the Antarctic Buoy programme in particular to aid in validation of remote sensing. (O41/OF7) Action: Continue support of Arctic buoy programme to provide ice motion over perennial ice (as well as mslp and surface temperature data). (O42/OF7) 4.2.2. Oceanic Domain – Subsurface 4.2.2.a. General Systematic sampling of the global upper ocean is needed to fully characterize ocean cimate variability. Global implementation of proven techniques remains to be accomplished. This will be addressed through implementation of the agreed upper-ocean network (specifically 3,000 Argo profiling floats, 41 repeat XBT lines, 29 surface reference moorings, 119 tropical surface moorings). Measurements from the deep ocean are a critical contribution to characterizing ocean climate variability and change. At present the most effective approaches involve combinations of regular, deep ocean surveys and surface altimetry. Table 26. Summary of subsurface network enhancements for the ocean climate observing system. Network Percent Complete 41 repeat XBT line network 119 tropical moorings ~75% 29 reference station moorings ~15% Repeat survey network ~60% Argo network ~30% ~75% Current monitoring Regional and global synthesis programs Plan needed Sea ice thickness Ocean Data system Plan needed ? Plan under development Organization JCOMM SOOP panel JCOMM Tropical mooring panel Int’l Reference station mooring program Int’l Carbon and CLIVAR programs JCOMM – Argo Science Team ?? CLIVAR Enhanced Equipment Costs/yr (1000k) 0.5 Enhanced Personnel needed none 2 ~10-20 5+ ongoing R&D ~25-100 1+ ongoing R&D ~10-20 10 ~10-20 TBD TBD GODAE, CLIVAR Other national efforts WCRP TBD TBD TBD TBD IOC, WMO 10min. ~20-50 [To Action: Through cooperation between OOPC, CLIVAR and the International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project, implement the on-going program of global repeat full-depth water 48 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT column sampling, with ~30 sections to be repeated per ~10year period. The Partnership for Observations of the Global Ocean, in cooperation with JCOMM and relevant research programs should be tasked to ensure the necessary resources are committed to this program and that associated data standards and data exhanges are fully implemented. (O43/OF10) Action: Altimetry (See O23/OF8) Action: Through the Ship Observations Panel of JCOMM, seek the needed enhancements to operate the Ship-of-Opportunity XBT/XCTD Program with the agreed frequently repeated section in key regions of variability and high-density trans-oceanic sections - 41 sections in all. (O44/OF11) Action: Through the Argo Pilot Project and its Science Team, and in cooperation with the Observations Coordination Group of JCOMM, complete the 3000 Argo profiling float global array and seek ongoing commitments to maintain this arrya (replacement calls for purchase of ~ 800 floats per year under present estimates of float performance and lifetime. (O45/OF11) Action: Through the Tropical Moored Buoy Implementation Panel of JCOMM and CLIVAR, and associated regional initiatives, develop plans for an Indian ocean pilot project and evolution of the Atlantic ocean pilot project. Seek sustained support for a tropical fixedlocation mooring program of ~119 sites, covering all tropical oceans with sampling of temperature and, whenever practical, salinity and currents over the upper 500 m of the ocean. (O46/OF11) Action: Implement a sparse global network of the agreed 29 ocean reference moorings, strategically distributed globally. These will provide essential reference quality long time records to identify climate trends and climate change. They also provide critical platforms for the testing and pilot project use of technology for autonomous measurement of chemical and ecosystem variables. The records from the reference site moorings will be key for testing climate models and their parameterizations. (O47/OF11) Action: Through GODAE and relevant climate research programs, develop a Pilot Project to coordinate the collection, quality control and assembly of ocean surface and subsurface current data, from a variety of sources, including VOS ADCPs, moorings, Argo and drifters, together with indirect estimates obtained from altimetry and surface patterntracking. Other efforts to develop analyses and reliable climate variability and trend datasets and products should be encouraged. (O48/OF11) 4.2.2.b. Specific issues – Oceanic Sub-surface ECV ECV – Sub-surface temperature Table 27. Subsurface temperature contributing networks and systems Contributing Network Classification Repeat XBT section network Operational Pilot Argo array Research Pilot Implementation Status Pilot/Research 49 Marginal Marginal GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 Repeat Full ocean Survey network depth DRAFT DRAFT Research/Research Pilot Marginal Reference Station network Research/Research Pilot Unsatisfactory Tropical Moored arrays Operational Pilot Marginal DRAFT Issues: Need ~ 30% more XBTs per year. Argo array needs about 70% enhancement Repeat Survey network needs ~ 30% enhancement Reference Station Network is at roughly 15% of agreed numbers. Tropical moored array too sparse in Atlantic and Indian; need enhancement (about 30%) and agreed plan for Indian. Action: needed? O49/ Finding? ECV - Sub-surface salinity Table 28. Sub- surface observing networks and systems Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Argo array Research Pilot Marginal Repeat survey network Operational Pilot/ Marginal Research Pilot Reference station network Research/Research Pilot Unsatisfactory Repeat XCTD from SOOP Research/Research Pilot unsatisfactory See comments on Argo, Tropical Moorings and Reference Stations for Temperature. Issue: Ship of opportunity program needs additional support. Action: needed? O49/ Finding ? ECV - Subsurface carbon 50 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Carbon cycle parameters should be measured at reference sites and full-depth carbon inventory surveys are needed to enable full interpretation of carbon cycle changes. Additional global pCO2 measurements are required to document the decadal uptake by the oceans of anthropogenic CO2. In addition to the fulldepth surveys, present consensus requires implementation of 29 surface reference-moored buoys and at least 25 selected VOS. Further sensor development for autonomous pCO2 and carbon system measurements is needed. Table 29. Sub-surface carbon observing networks Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Repeat survey network Research Pilot Marginal Reference station network Research/Research Pilot unsatisfactory Issues: Technology development needed for autonomous sensors Enhanced survey network needed if inventory change over intervals shorter than 10 years desired. Action: Repeated carbon sections (see O43/OF10) (O50/OF12) Action: Through the IOCCP, the international time series reference mooring program and in collaboration with relevant research programs, develop a program of around 25 VOS repeat lines and 29 surface reference sites for measuring air- sea pCO2 differences. In addition, support efforts to develop and pilot project use of climate quality autonomous sensors for widest possible use. (O51/OF12) ECV – Subsurface nutrients (oxygen, phosphorous, nitrates, silicates) Table 30. Networks contributing to observations of Subsurface Nutrients Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Repeat survey network Research Pilot Marginal Reference station network Research/Research Pilot unsatisfactory Issues: Technology development needed for autonomous sensors Near-surface nutrient variability not well sampled with present repeat surveys Action: needed (O52/OF?) 51 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT ECV- Sub-surface Currents Table 31. Observation networks contributing to Sub-surface Currents Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Argo float displacements Research Pilot unsatisfactory Key regional monitoring Research unsatisfactory Reference moorings Research/research pilot unsatisfactory and tropical Issues: Argo array needs ~70% enhancement Agreed plan for key regional monitoring efforts (e.g., choke points, sill overflows, boundary currents) needed. Tropical and reference station currents seriously undersample for change detection. Action: needed? O53/OF? ECV – Sub-surface Tracers Table 32. Observing networks contributing to Subsurface Tracers Contributing Network Classification Implementation Status Repeat survey network Research/research pilot Marginal/unsat. Reference station network research No contribution Issues: Improved technology for small water volume measurements needed. Technology development needed for autonomous sensors. Action: needed ? O54/ OF? 4.2.3. Ocean Domain – Data Management Section 3 of this Implementation Plan introduces data management needs, as described by the 2AR, and issues generic issues and associated actions. Within this context, there are issues within the ocean domain that require specific actions. The coordination of data management activities is principally through the International Ocean Data Exchange (IODE) of IOC and ICSU and the Data Management Coordination Group of JCOMM which in turn works closely with the data management program of WMO. In particular, WMO is examining the adoption of metadata standards for atmospheric data and the potential for a 52 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Future Information System that would introduce new internet-based technology into the Global Telecommunication System and rationalize the system of Data Centres. Any actions taken for ocean and climate will inevitably be linked to, or included within, activities of WMO. A Data Policy covering exchange of ocean data has been agreed by the Member States of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission , with the intent of facilitating the free and open exchange of essential ocean data. Within IOC and JCOMM, a Review is underway to examine potential future arrangements for their data management needs, the vision being “A comprehensive and integrated ocean data and information system, serving the broad and diverse needs of IOC Member States, for both routine and scientific use.” Figure 4 shows schematically the proposed arrangement with a hierarchal system of global, regional and national activities/centres. IODE and JCOMM jointly sponsor an Ocean Information Technology Pilot Project whose intent is to develop future data management capacity and actions listed below derive in part from the priorities agreed by that Project. There are important activities underway at the regional and national level (e.g., the Data Management, Archive and Communication System (DMACS)) and these will be important in the implementation process. Three data management functions within the oceanic domain are particularly important. First, the ability to efficiently and effectively communicate data (and metadata) from platforms that are often remote and/or autonomous is a critical issue for oceanography. While most products in GCOS will not demand real-time acquisition, experience has shown that a policy of immediate acquisition is the most effective for assuring that data are available, exchanged and submitted in at least preliminary form to data centres. The key telecommunication issue at present is that bandwidth from platforms such as moorings, drifters and floats is limited and, in some cases, means measurements are lost. Various groups do provide data telecommunication services (e.g., ARGOS) and these services continue to be a critical contribution. However, for a range of reasons, the community requires at least an order of magnitude increase in capacity and, for some cases, a factor of 100. The second data management function noted is data transport. The ocean community has made extensive use of the WMO Global Telecommunication System for exchange of data in real-time and nearreal-time. Other datasets, particularly from hydrographic cruises, will come via other means. At the OceanObs ’99 Conference the community reached consensus that, wherever practical, ocean data should be exchanged freely in real-time. This policy has been followed with Argo and, increasingly, in other endeavors contributing the ocean climate observing system. The definitions adopted by OOPC and JCOMM for “operational” in effect demand such arrangements. Recently, increasing use has been made of internet systems to exchange data and, in particular, using the OPenDAP (formerly DODS) protocol. Yet other systems are being considered by WMO to enhance the capability of the Global Telecommunication System. Thirdly, the function of data assembly and quality control are critical for ensuring that the global ocean data meet the climate quality standards and are accessible to users. The Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array (TAO) and initiatives such as the Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Project have ushered in an era of greatly improved access to data, greater reliability of delivery and access and improved quality and have facilitated improved and more efficient data assembly procedures. In concert with the Data Assembly Centre activities of WOCE (in part continued through IODE and CLIVAR), the community is now better able to produce high-quality datasets, in time frames that account for the immediacy of some climate issues. Through JCOMM and IODE, these initiatives continue to provide significant benefit to the community. Other initiatives such as the World Ocean Data Base of NODC, the International Climate OceanAtmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), and the Global Ocean Data Archeology and Rescue (GODAR) project provide significant capability for developing ocean climate data sets and analyses. The World Data Center for Glaciology and the National Snow and Ice Data Center, among others, provide similar functionality for aspects of the sea-ice data. 53 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT There are also a range of Data Centers (or activities) that provide functionality for particular variables and/or platform types, or for specific regions. Table 33. Oceanic domain data centers and services Contributing Activity Classification Implementation Status Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) Operational Fully adequate University of Hawaii Sea Level Centre (Pre-)Operational Satisfactory VOSCLIM R/T Monitoring Centre and VOSCLIM Data Centre Pre-operational Marginal (early days) GTSPP Operational Satisfactory GOSUD (for underway surface data exchange) Pre-Operational Marginal (early days) ICOADS Operational (?) Satisfactory Argo Global Data Assembly Centres (Coriolis and at Monterey) Pre-operational Marginal (work to be done, resources) World and Responsible Data Centres of IODE Operational Satisfactory under review) Specialised Centres Varying Marginal (as above) and Regional (functionality Action: Through the IOC, and using the UNFCCC National (GCOS) Reporting mechanism, monitor the degree of compliance with the Data Policy. (O55) Action: Through IODE and JCOMM, and in collaboration with the ocean community generally, WMO and standard setting bodies such as ISO and the World Wide Web Consortium, develop an international standard for ocean metadata including syntactic and semantic (description, search) metadata. (O56) Action: Through IODE and JCOMM, develop a Pilot Project on data assembly, quality and orderly archiving of ocean data, datasets and products. The Project will develop a system for ensuring the integrity of datasets is sustained and that value-adding is recognized and maintained through an agreed system of versions and classifications, in particular for scientifically quality controlled datasets and associated products. (O57) Action: Through IODE and JCOMM, and in collaboration with the ocean community generally, WMO and standard setting bodies such as ISO and the World Wide Web Consortium, develop an international standard for ocean metadata including syntactic and semantic (description, search) metadata. (O58) 54 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT JCOMM DM (Oceans) DRAFT DRAFT IOC Science, GOOS, … Ocean D&IM Program Global elements Regional elements National Centres Action: In collaboration with the WMO Future Information Systems initiative, and building on innovations and emerging protocols for data transport such as OpenDAP, develop a ocean Figure 4. A suggested structure for JCOMM and IOC/IODE Data Management. data transport system, for data exchange between centres using ocean data and open for use by the ocean community generally (subject to agreed standards). (O59/) Action: Building on the (pre-operational) data management arrangements initiated by Argo, included its system of Data Centres, and in collaboration with the Global TemperatureSalinity Profile Project of JCOMM and IODE, develop a sustained system of data acquisition, quality control, assembly and archive for subsurface temperature and salinity data. (O60/) Action: Through the IODE/JCOMM Review of data management arrangements in assessments and reviews being conducted internally by IODE and JCOMM, and recognizing the capabilities and potential of existing Centres and arrangements, implement a system of regional, specialized and global data centres that will (a) handle data in accordance with GCOS Principles, (b) be able to provide advanced ocean data services, (c) be capable of bring expert analysis and interpretation in their region/area of specialization, (d) undertake exchange of data and associated products with other relevant Centres of IODE and JCOMM, and (e) ensure the safe-keeping and archiving of ocean climate data. Further, with specific regard to the needs of GCOS, several Centres should be established that specialize in the provision of ocean climate data services. (O61/) Action: Through IODE and its Global Ocean Data Archeology and Rescue Project (GODAR), promote the rescue and assembly of historical ocean data, including data in non-digital forms. (O62/) Action: Through IODE and JCOMM, support projects that enhance the flow, quality control and overall management of ocean data in real-time and, specifically the GTSPP and Global Ocean Surface Underway Data (GOSUD) project. (O63) 55 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Action: Through IODE and JCOMM, and in collaboration with specific national groups, develop enhanced and more cost-effective telecommunication capabilities including, as feasible, two-way communications for dynamic control of instruments. (O64) 4.2.4. Oceanic Domain – Integrated Global Analysis Products Ocean data and ocean climate analyses are important for supporting the testing of climate change models and evaluation of the ocean state/structure of predictions of future changes of the climate system. The global comprehensive networks together with baseline and reference networks as described previously can provide the needed information, with particular emphasis on three-dimensional analyses and climatologies and time series. Action: Construction of climate quality historical data sets, including estimates of variance and covariance statistics, is needed. Ocean climatologies of ECVs should be prepared, including estimates of uncertainty. Creation of ECV specific climate analyses (e.g., SST, sea level), including estimates of uncertainty, should be supported. These activities should be coordinated with CLIVAR, and other relevant research and data management activities. (O65) Action: Pilot projects for the generation of operational oceanography product suites of the ocean ECVs (e.g., national GODAE activities) should be supported. Systematic evaluation of the skill of these products is needed, so each group should be encouraged to participate in the various GODAE regional comparison projects. The utility of these operational products as the basis for the development of ocean climate information products should be investigated. Feedback on the performance of the initial ocean climate observing system should be provided to observing system management, including recommendations for enhancement and/or evolution of the initial system networks. (O66) Action: Pilot projects for ocean reanalysis and comparison of the results of different reanalysis results should be supported. These should be coordinated with CLIVAR and other relevant research programs. (O67) 4.2.5. Oceanic Domain – Synthesis and Consolidation of Actions There has been good progress in several aspects of the implementation of the ocean climate observing system. The transition of parts of the tropical moored network to sustained support, the strong international support for Argo (over 30% implemented), and continuing support for elements of the surface in situ observation system demonstrate a high level of support for the climate objectives of the system. The satellite community had demonstrated advanced functionality, in several instances on a quasi-sustained basis that has profoundly influenced both the strategy and the capability of the observing system. A composite approach, with carefully balanced approaches and broad coordination and cooperation, is partially meeting the requirements. The major weaknesses are in terms of global coverage of the full ocean, efficient autonomous and remote instruments to overcome logistical constraints, and sustainability and long-term investment. This progress has its basis in strong national support, principally through the dev eloped nations. The nature of the problem has encouraged regional approaches and cooperation. International cooperation and collaboration are essential for an effective system if individual nations are to derive maximum benefit and efficiency from investments and bodies such as JCOMM provide an effective avenue for developing and delivering such functionality. The Partners to the Integrated Global Observing Strategy, among 56 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT others, have been influential inn developing and assuring some measure of long-term support for needed remote measurements. Consensus has been reached in the ocean community on the integrated, composite approach and, to a large extent, on the elements that are required for a fully adequate ocean climate observing system. The way forward is agreed even if the capacity to successfully implement this strategy remains a challenge. Consensus has also been reached for Data Policy related to access to and exchange of ocean data, including from climate-sensitive coastal regions. Priorities for the Oceanic Domain include remote sensing of sea-surface temperature, surface winds and sea surface topography since they represent the foundations of the global surface network and action is required to assure continuity and sustainability. Composite surface in situ approaches (sea level gauges, drifters, surface buoys, and volunteer ships), with careful attention to quality, provide essential complementary data and in general need enhanced support (near double) with focus on a truly global distribution and development of reliable reference datasets. The sea level network is particular critical because of issues related to sea level rise and coastal impacts. Actions to extend this basic capability include support for sustained ocean color measurements and pilot projects to improve the quality and delivery of surface data. Remote sensing also provides a substantial basis for monitoring sea-ice extent and concentration and the potential for determining variability and change in thickness and other sea-ice properties. The needed actions address sustainability and technical challenges associated with determining sea-ice thickness. Targeted in situ validation campaigns and a limited but sustained sea-ice buoy program are also important actions, aimed at introducing greater sustainability for these important measurements. Research is recommended in order to develop reliable in situ sea-ice thickness measurement techniques. Routine, accurate sea-ice extent and concentration products, with estimates of uncertainty, and the potential for routine analyses of ice-thickness in the long-term are also priorities. A composite system of subsurface temperature and salinity measurements, centred around Argo, but complemented by deep hydrographic sections, fixed-location moorings and ships-of-opportunity provide the heart of the subsurface observing system. These actions focus on completion of global coverage, deep measurements and sustained support with an approximate doubling of the effort compared to the present. The actions include carbon measurements and, where feasible, additional biogeochemical measurements. The partnership with research is critical for advancement. Effective management of ocean data and products is critical for the ocean, as it is for all of GCOS. The specific actions include (a) implementation and monitoring of the newly agreed Data Policy governing access to and exchange of ocean data; (b) agreement and implementation of a metadata standard for oceanography, with consistency with other climate standards; (c) phased implementation of new data transport mechanisms, building on the GTS, to ensure data are rapidly exchanged and maximum advantage is taken of real-time data processing systems; (d) new, joint IODE-JCOMM data centre arrangements, including for climate, that will enhance the delivery of data and climate services; and agreed assembly, quality control and dataset version arrangements. Products Table O19 summarizes the actions identified in all of the oceanic domain sections above. It includes the specific action, the body(s) or organization(s) called on to undertake the action, the time-frame envisioned and the performance indicators or measures of progress that can be used to assess implementation progress. Table 34. Actions proposed (Oceanic Domain) Ref. No. Action (A): Implementation action proposed or required Who (W): Proposed responsible Parties/Institutions Time-frame (T): Action accomplished by date or continuous Performance indicator(s) (P): Measures by which progress will be 57 XX GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 4.3. 4.3.1. DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT assessed Need: Ensure global coverage and long term records of ocean data A: Commitment to characterize global ocean variability W: Nations through JCOMM and other relavant bodies T: Continuous P: Reports to UNFCCC Cost: National implementation. International support for JCOMM $ Need: Continuing review and assessment of implementation A: Review and revision of plan every 5 years W: OOPC in cooperation with participating partners T: Report by 2009 P: Report published Cost: Funding for experts to review and prepare report. $ Need: Ensure international cooperation and collaboration A: Focus implementation through JCOMM and related bodies W: National and agency programs T: Continuing P: JCOMM reports and assessments Cost: National resources. Support to JCOMM $ Need: New and climate-specific integrated ocean analysis products and associated infrastructure A: Support pre-operational demonstration projects (e.g. GODAE) W: Nations in collaboration with international research community T: Urgent, continuing P: Successful completion of projects and implementation of permanent infra-structure. Cost: National resources Need: Development of new ocean observing technology and methods A: Undertake focused research programs W: National research efforts in cooperation with CLIVAR and other related research initiatives T: Continuing P: Implementation of new observing systems and methods Cost: National research programs Need: Effective and efficient implementation and maintenance of the ocean observing system A: Promotion of the requirement as a high priority objective W: GCOS Steering Committee and OOPC through POGO T: Continuing P: Operational performance of the system Cost: OF13 OF1 OF1 OF1 OF2 OF2 TERRESTRIAL DOMAIN CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM General Many organizations make terrestrial observations, for a wide range of purposes, using various measurement protocols even for the same variable. The resulting lack of homogeneous observations limits capacity to monitor the changes relevant to climate and to determine causes of land-surface changes. There is a need for an intergovernmental Technical Commission to: 58 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT prepare and issue regulatory and guidance material establish common standards for observations, data management and services ensure compatibility with existing standards and initiatives designate global data centres supported with sustained funding This Commission should be created under the auspices of the UN. As a first step ICSU, FAO, UNEP, UNESCO, WMO and the convention secretariats should create an inter-agency working group to examine UN agency roles and responsibilities in such a body. The inter-agency working group should be convened in 2005 and deliver its findings concerning a JCOMM-like structure by 2006. Despite the lack of a Technical Commission some progress is being made on the implementation of the terrestrial networks. Table 35 identifies the in situ and EO based networks. Data centres for some variables are well established and supported, infrastructure to co-ordinate collection of data for key in-situ variables is being developed, Space Agencies now provide observations for some variables on an increasingly routine basis and there are improved mechanisms for international consensus (e.g. new GTOS science panels and a Land Product Validation group within CEOS’ Working Group on Calibration and Validation (WGCV)). A reference network is needed for observations of climate variables, process studies, validating observations derived from Earth observation satellites, and to address intrinsic limitations in the latter. While there exists a range of locally supported sites within networks making relevant measurements the three Global Terrestrial Networks (hydrology, glaciers, permafrost) remain to be fully implemented; gaps in the measurement networks should be filled and data should be provided to the designated international data centres. Detail is provided in section 4.3.2 and Table 35. Despite continuing international efforts by the space agencies, inter comparison and validation of the EO derived global products is not carried out routinely thus making it impossible to confirm fitness for purpose. To address this we need not only involvement of established science panels and CEOS WGCV structures but institution(s) or organization(s) to assume operational responsibility for making the observations, validating products and for their distribution, analysis, and archiving. 4.3.2. Specific issues- Terrestrial domain ECVs Table 36 lists the specific implementation actions proposed for the Terrestrial Domain, the suggested responsible bodies/institutions, the proposed time frame for the action, and the measures by which progress will be assessed. Land-surface characteristics are highly sensitive to climate variability and climate change. ECV – River discharge Statistical properties of river discharge are an indicator for climatic change as it reflects changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration. To a lesser degree river runoff also has a driver role, as the freshwater inflow to oceans may influence (theromo)haline circulations. It is required for calibration of global models, trend analysis and socio-economic investigations. Most countries monitor river discharge, but from a global perspective data are organized in a scattered and fragmented way, i.e. data are managed at sub-national levels, in different sectors, and by different (computer) systems. Also, the technology used means that there can be delays of .a number of years before data delivery. Though there is the technology to monitor water levels and surface water velocities from satellites e.g. by SAR Along Track Interferometry (ATI), this is still at an early research stage, though may in the future form a sound basis for monitoring river discharge. 59 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Action: Research should continue into interferrometric and altimetry based approaches to river discharge monitoring. With current technology in situ systems offer the most complete basis for river discharge monitoring, and although The Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) has been mandated by WMO Resolution to improved access to historical runoff data there are major gaps in the record received by GRDC.; gaps both in terms of number of rivers monitored and the time it takes for the GRDC to receive records. To address this the GCOS IP proposes two phases of implementation. Phase 1: As an initial step around 300 priority stations near the downstream end of the largest rivers of the world have been identified. These will capture about 70 % of the global freshwater flux to the oceans (see list in annex). Though most applications related to climate require only monthly data, river discharge has to be recorded at least daily to allow for the necessary integration. For climate purposes contemporary records for all these rivers are required. At present delays in reporting vary hugely so it is not possible to obtain a temporally consistent view of discharge. A major improvement would be for the reporting from the 300 primary targets to all arrive at GRDC within the same year, and with only one year of delay, i.e. they need to get preferential treatment. Action: National hydrological services to report annually recent discharge data to the GRDC. For the target 300 stations all have reported at some time in the past, and most will be operating today and have a technical infrastructure. In some cases this will need to be upgraded but the exact status is not yet known. Action: national hydrological services to approach the identified gauging stations, determine their operational status and provide GRDC with this information (i.e. all existing data and metadata, including the measurement and data transmission technology used). GRDC will then be in a position to provide GCOS with information on the network’s status so to focus remedial action via funding from the GCOS fund and GEF. Phase 2: The emphasis on the 300 priority stations and a delay of one year must only be seen as incremental steps towards the goal of near real time data transfer to GTN-H of more rivers, also covering e.g. pristine inland basins for trend analysis. Based on information acquired in phase 1, existing stations that are able to transmit near real time data together with selected stations need to be upgraded (average cost per station ~15.000 US$ per station) and a transmission scheme of their data to GTN-H defined. Action: National Hydrological Services to collaborate with GTN-H through GRDC to distribute near real time river discharge data according to agreed standards. Implementation will be assessed by the number of priority stations reporting annually and with maximum one year delay, the number of near real time stations established and data transferred or made accessible, and the number of countries participating in the GTN-H program. ECV – Lake levels Information on changes in lake level and area (which are surrogates for the climatically-sensitive parameter of lake volume) is required on a monthly basis for climate assessment purposes. Approximately 95% of the volume of water held in the ~4,000,000 lakes is held in the 145 largest lakes. However, most of these large lakes are hydrologically open. Closed-basin lakes are more sensitive to changes in regional water balance and therefore better sensors of changes in climate. Large open lakes cannot be neglected in designing the monitoring programme, however, because these lakes are important sources of water for consumption, and because large expanses of water can have a significant 60 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT impact on climate through albedo feedback. Furthermore, in some regions (e.g. the semi-arid interior of Australia or the Great Basin of the USA) highly ephemeral lakes (which contain water only every few years) can nevertheless be important to monitor because they provide a record of extreme events and because of potential feedback effect on regional climate. The GCOS strategy is to focus on the largest lakes, primarily closed-basin lakes but including major ephemeral lakes and a selection of the largest open lakes. The initial target of 150 lakes worldwide (Table XX) will be of immediate benefit to climate modelers, though the inventory will have to gradually increase to ca 500 lakes to ensure fully adequate regional coverage and sufficient sites to ensure replicability of the derived records. Lake level and area need to be measured (ideally) weekly or (at worst) monthly, with a horizontal resolution of 10m and a vertical resolution of at least 5 cm. These measurements would be made by national hydrological services and should be provided to the designated data centre. There is no organisation which currently functions as an operational data management centre for lake level/area information, although several institutes (e.g. Mullard Space Science Laboratory, State Hydrological Institute of St. Petersburg, ILEC) have expressed willingness to extend their current database activities to take on this role. Action: Creation of an operational lake data management function is imperative and funding for the support of a data centre is required. The existence of measurement time-series for the 20th century (or longer) would considerably enhance the value of ongoing monitoring. Action: National hydrological services should retrieve archival data and provide this to the designated data centre. Satellite altimeter data can provide additional data, particular in more remote areas. Action: those parties with space agency capacities should contribute to monitoring the 150 lakes and provide the measurements to the designated data centre. There are a number of other lake-specific variables that are needed by the climate modelling community (e.g. surface temperature) or for climate monitoring purposes (e.g. surface and sub-surface temperature, timing of freezing, timing of thaw). In so far as the measurement of these variables could be made by the hydrological services of the parties in association with measurement of lake level/area, they should be made. Action: National hydrological services to monitor lake level/area/surface temperature and freeze/thaw dates of individual lakes from the key set of 150 lakes, based on either in-situ or satellite measurements as appropriate, and report these measurements to a designated data centre. Performance can be judged by Creation of an operational data management centre; commitment to monitor individual lakes by host countries; completeness of data base; Expansion of the monitoring network to encompass a larger set of ca 500 lakes; extension of the records of lake level/area backwards in time through retrieval of archival data covering 20th century (or longer if possible). Performance indicators: (a) identification of available data and timeframe; (b) completeness of data base. Estimated costs Funding of the order of $0.5 million per year will be required to maintain an operational data management centre. The costs of monitoring individual lakes should primarily be borne from funding to the hydrological services. However, additional funding may be necessary to ensure training, installation of automated recording systems and maintenance in those countries which currently lack an adequate support for such work. ECV – Ground Water Approximately 30% of the world’s total freshwater (i.e. including snow/ice) is stored as groundwater. Changes in the depth of the groundwater table can be used as an indicator of climate change on decadal 61 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT timescales, provided information on groundwater withdrawals (e.g. for irrigation) is also available. The information on changes in groundwater depth and abstraction rate is required on a yearly basis for climate assessment. There are continuous groundwater monitoring programmes at individual sites in many countries; these data are generally held locally and are not readily accessible. However, there are many parts of the world where the level of monitoring is inadequate. Furthermore, there are questions about the reliability of the existing data because of the lack of agreed standards for measurement and reporting. There is no comprehensive or global network of monitoring stations, nor is there a global network of collaborating agencies and the exchange of groundwater data is virtually non-existent. Creation of such a network, agreement on a representative set of sites for monitoring and agreement on measurement standards are urgent priorities. The GCOS strategy is to focus on monitoring a selected set (n.b. this information is coming from IGRAC) of representative groundwater aquifers covering a range of hydrologic conditions, worldwide (Table XX). There are variations in the level of the groundwater table within any one groundwater system; measurements of groundwater level from multiple boreholes across the aquifer will be necessary to reconstruct the groundwater surface and hence changes in the nature of that surface through time. We anticipate that these measurements would be made by the hydrological services of the parties concerned. The existence of measurement time-series for the 20th century would considerably enhance the value of ongoing monitoring, and could be possible through retrieval of archival data by the hydrological services. There is no organisation which currently functions as an operational data management centre for groundwater measurements, although IGRAC (International Groundwater Resources Assessment Centre) could provide this service. Action: Creation of an operational data management function is imperative and funding for the support of a data centre is required. The interpretation of measured changes in groundwater depth requires information on regional groundwater extraction rates to be available. Action: Estimates of the yearly volume of groundwater removed from each monitored aquifer need to be provided by national agencies. Performance indicators are creation of an operational data management centre, commitment to monitor individual aquifers by host countries, extension of the records of groundwater levels backwards in time through retrieval of archival data and completeness of database. ECV – Water Use The availability of freshwater plays a crucial role in food production and food security. Irrigated land covers about 20 % of the cropland, but contributes about 40% of total food production. Irrigated agriculture accounts for about 70% of all freshwater consumption worldwide and more than 80% in developing countries. Future food needs will require intensified production including increased irrigation of agricultural crops that is expected to raise water consumption from present 2128 km3 to 2420 km3 annually by 2030. Thus, quantitative and qualitative information on irrigated land and available water resources, their spatial distribution and change over time is essential for issues of resource management (a prime concern of the FAO AQUASTAT programme, the International Water Management Institute and the International Commission of Irrigation and Drainage). Changes in the area of irrigated land and the amount of water used for irrigation do not, of themselves, provide a way of monitoring climate change. However, information on these two variables is necessary in order to be able to diagnose how far changes in other terrestrial ECVs (e.g. land cover, river discharge, lake level/area) are caused by climate changes as distinct from land-use changes. 62 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Irrigation, particularly irrigation in arid and semi-arid areas, could play an important role as a driver of climate changes. This influence operates partly through changes in the regional surface water- and energy-balance caused by increased evapotranspiration and changes in albedo. Changes in the area of irrigated agriculture could also impact on climate through influencing emissions of radiatively-active trace gases such as methane. The only resource providing global information on the area of irrigated land is the map prepared by the University of Kassel, Germany. This raster map has a resolution of 5' resolution (about 5 km at equator) but is compiled from different sources. Higher-resolution mapping could be achieved using satellite data, e.g. MODIS/MERIS could be exploited to produce maps at ca 250m resolution. Whereas satellite data analysis is fairly simple for semi-arid/arid areas, more complex analysis of seasonal data sets will be needed to identify irrigated areas for temperate and tropical zones. However, in-situ information is required to determine the source of irrigation water (surface, lake, river, groundwater, local, extra-local), type of irrigation (surface, sprinkler, micro-irrigation), the timing and frequency of irrigation, and the volume of irrigation water used. The main priority is production of gridded global maps of irrigated area at 250m resolution on a year-byyear basis, accompanied by information (derived from in-situ records) on water source, type of irrigation, frequency and timing of irrigation and volume of water used. Irrigated area could eventually be integrated into global land cover maps (see below). Implementation will involve space agencies and the research community. Action: FAO will define requirements of international, regional, national and local communities for irrigation water use information. FAO will archive and disseminate information related to irrigation and water resources through its on-line AQUASTAT database and other means. GTOS has defined freshwater resources as of one of its priority areas. It further supports these communities through its Global Terrestrial Network on Hydrology and the Terrestrial Ecosystems Monitoring Sites (TEMS) database. Similarly, GCOS will provide access to climatic and water-related databases. ECV – Snow cover Snowfall and snow cover play a key role with respect to feedback mechanisms within the climate system (albedo, runoff, soil moisture and vegetation) and are important variables in monitoring climate change. About one third of the Earth's land surface is seasonally snow-covered. Snow thickness and snow-cover duration affect permafrost thermal state, the depth and timing of seasonal soil freeze/thaw, and melt on land ice and sea ice. In situ measurements of snow extent, depth and water equivalent (SWE) vary between agencies and countries. Many existing data are not readily accessible. Station networks are severely contracting in Russia and Canada and automation is changing the nature of snow depth measurements. Accessible documentation is needed on where and when these changes have occurred. Action: The contraction of in situ observations in Russia and Canada should be halted and there is an urgent need to develop optimal procedures to develop blended products of surface observations of snow with visible and microwave satellite data and related airborne measurements. Snow cover is mapped daily by operational satellites, but sensor channels change and continuing research and surface observations are needed to calibrate and verify algorithms and satellite products for depth/SWE. Daily Northern Hemisphere snow extent maps began May 1999, with weekly maps available since1966. Comparable Southern Hemisphere data are needed. Action: space agencies currently generating northern hemisphere snow cover products should also generate southern hemisphere products. 63 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Global daily snow depth analysis has been performed by the Canadian Meteorological Centre http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html and daily snow depth data from the WMO-GTS Synoptic Reports are available through NOAA’s National Climate Data Center. Snow water equivalent is observed in many countries by national, state, provincial and private networks on a 10-30 day basis. No central archive exists and many data bases are not readily accessible. No standard global SWE product exists. Many of the noted problems arise because (i) snow cover data are collected by numerous agencies with differing goals (ii) funding support for snow research is fragmentary and not well co-ordinated (iii) the cost of surface networks is leading to their contraction or automated measurement using different instrumentation. Maintenance of adequate, representative surface networks of snow observations must begin with documentation and analysis of required network densities in different environments. Resolution of the data inaccessibility requires; promoting political commitment to data sharing; removing practical barriers by enhancing electronic interconnectivity and metadata; and data rescue and digitization. The provision of necessary resources to improve and make available existing archives of snow data will require national efforts. Development of snow products that blend multiple data sources and are globally applicable needs urgent focused attention. Action: WCRP CliC and GCOS could help lead such an effort. Over 10 years to come, minimum total costs are estimated at US$1.7 M ($100K per year for filling primary gaps in the SWE network and $50K per year for incorporation of remote sensing data, $20K per year publications, travel, expert meetings). Roughly $10 M ($1M per year for generating data sets and products) must additionally be borne by country(ies) hosting the central (distributed) service. The completed SWE network and a functioning inclusion of remote sensing measurements will be the main indication of successful implementation. ECV – Glaciers Changes in mountain glaciers and ice caps are the clearest evidence of global warming, constitute key variables for early-detection strategies in global climate-related observations and cause serious impacts on the terrestrial water cycle. The Global Terrestrial Network on Glaciers (GTN-G) based on century-long worldwide observations developed an integrated, multi-level strategy for global observations. Extensive glacier mass balance and flow studies within major climatic zones form the basis for improved process understanding and calibration of numerical models. Action: Measurements must be made by national services (governmental and university…GTN-G has identified the relevant organisations) of regional volume change within 15 major mountain systems using cost-saving methodologies (index stakes, laser altimetry, repeated mapping, long-term observations of glacier length at 10 reference sites selected with respect to climate and size/dynamics of ice body. Data will be provided to the designated data centre. Glacier inventories using satellite remote sensing with special application of digital terrain information in GIS for automated procedures of image analysis, data processing and modelling/interpretation are needed at time intervals of 10 years. Action: The 10 year inventory will be performed by a network of experts in different regions in close co-operation with those space agencies operating high-resolution sensors with stereographic image acquisition capabilities. GTN-G will coordinate the partnership and the designated data centre will archive and distribute the final inventory. Continental-scale transects of observations exist in the American Cordilleras (N-S), in Africa- 64 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Pyrenees-Alps-Scandinavia-Svalbard (N-S) and through central Eurasia (E-W). Measurements in individual countries are funded on a national basis. GTN-G is run by The World Glacier Monitoring Service of ICSI(IAHS), FAGS(ICSU), UNESCO and UNEP, which has been in charge of collecting and disseminating standardized data worldwide through a network of national correspondents and principal investigators. Action: GTN-G through contact with institutions in measurements in the southern hemisphere (especially Patagonia and New Zealand), to further develop a web-based data management and data dissemination system will start complementary mass balance measurements in these regions. Close cooperation with the ASTER/GLIMS helps initiating systematic satellite observations and the introduction of advanced/automated image and data analysis techniques. A new lead structure of the service must assure the long-term continuation of these fundamentally important activities for reaching global coverage. Over the next 10 years minimum total costs are estimated at 1.5 Mio US$ (30K per year for filling primary gaps in the mass balance network, 50K per year running the database and 50K per year for inclusion of remote sensing data, 20K per year publications, travel, expert meetings). Roughly 1 Mio (100K per year for directing and running the service) must additionally be borne by the country hosting the central service. The completed mass balance network and a functioning inclusion of remote sensing programmes will be the main indication of successful implementation. ECV – Ice Sheets The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets hold 95% of the world’s fresh water and almost 70-m of sea level equivalent. Iceberg calving, especially from ice shelves, and ice sheet basal and marginal melt contribute large quantities of fresh water to the world’s oceans. The freshwater addition to the oceans also affects the salinity and density of the upper ocean and thus are major contributors to ocean deep water formation and the global thermohaline circulation (TNC). Ice sheet geometry and mass balance need to be monitored. The former involves airborne or satellite altimetry and the latter in situ measurements. Digital elevation maps with 5-km resolution based on ERS-1 and Geosat for Greenland and Antarctica are available. For Antarctica there are also 200m, 400 m and 1-km resolution DEMs from the Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project (RAMP). For Greenland there are extensive satellite and airborne remote sensing data, AWS station meteorological data, snow pits and shallow cores from the Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA). Snow melt extent on the ice sheet has been mapped from passive microwave data, continuously for 1979-present. All these data are held by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The recently launched Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite (combined with ICESat data) will enable mass balance estimates for Antarctica equivalent to a sea level change of 0.2 mm/yr. The International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE) is collecting shallow cores along transects across Antarctica to study the climate of the last 200 years. However, the satellite missions and the field programs are one-time research projects without plans for repeat surveys at this time. The forthcoming research satellite missions (e.g. ICESat and the European CryoSat) will provide the initial data set of the polar ice sheets. However, long term monitoring of ice sheets using the same sensor types is essential for change detection and cannot be resolved with a 3-year mission. Action: Space Agencies to ensure continuity of ice sheet monitoring missions. ECV – Permafrost Decadal changes in permafrost temperatures and seasonal freezing/thawing are reliable indicators of climate change in high latitude and mountain regions. Warming may result in a reduction in the extent of permafrost and can have an impact on thaw settlement and slope instability, and moisture and gas fluxes. 65 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Standardized in-situ measurements are essential, both to calibrate and to verify regional and GCM models. The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) is a pilot project of GTOS and currently involves 16 participating countries, with 125 active sites in the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) network and 287 identified boreholes for monitoring permafrost thermal state. It seeks to implement an integrated, multi-level strategy for global observations of permafrost thermal state, active layer thickness, and seasonally frozen ground at locations without permafrost; also included are snow cover, soil moisture and temperature. Process-oriented research sites are Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) sites and Barrow (Alaska), Zackenberg (Greenland), Abisko (Sweden), and Murtel/Corvatsch (Switzerland). Documentation of environmental variations include ground temperatures in southern Norway, the Swiss Alps and Mongolia. Remote sensing of subsurface temperatures, ground ice, and frost penetration is difficult. Major assemblages of experimental sites cover continental-scale transects in Alaska, Canada, Russia and the European mountains. The International Permafrost Association (IPA) coordinates GTN-P activities. The Geological Survey of Canada (Ottawa) maintains borehole metadata files and coordinates thermal data management and dissemination. Every five years, the NSIDC prepares a CD containing information and data acquired in the previous 5-yr interval. Regional projects support local networks and observatories such as the USGS Alaskan deep borehole network and the NSF-supported CALM system, Canadian transects, and PACE activities, GEF in Mongolia, etc. Presently, GTN-P in situ data acquisition is operated as a largely voluntary operation, with individual national and regional sponsored programs (e.g., PACE). Action: Activation of additional existing boreholes, and establishment of approximately 150 new borehole and active layer sites are required for representative coverage in the Europe/Nordic region, Russia and Central Asia (, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, China), in the southern hemisphere (South America, Antarctica), and in the North American mountain ranges and lowlands. A borehole campaign is proposed during the IPY 2007/2008 period. In a number of cases sites are funded on a national or multi-national basis (PACE, CALM). However, over the 10-year period approximately $5M ($500K per year ) is required to supplement costs of data acquisition and to fill gaps in the networks. Assistance in transferring data, centralized data processing and web access is estimated at an additional $100K per year. Completion of the network and routine data collection/dissemination will be the main indicator of successful implementation. GTN-P has identified sites and IPA has the contacts with entities capable of establishing and running the additional sites. Assuming measurements in individual countries are funded on a national or multi-national basis (such as EU, GEF), assistance in transferring data to NSIDC, centralized data processing and web access is estimate at $100,000 US per year. Completion of the network and routinely data collection/dissemination will be the main indicator of successful implementation. ECV – Albedo Surface albedo is both a forcing variable controlling the climate and a sensitive indicator of environmental degradation. Albedo varies in space and time as a result of both natural processes (e.g., changes in solar position, snowfall and vegetation growth) and human activities (e.g., forestry and agriculture). Daily-average surface albedo values have been derived experimentally from a single geostationary satellite, but could be obtained from Action: all the current geostationary platforms to give near-global coverage. The Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites is promoting such an activity. Archived data from these instruments could also be used to document the evolution of albedo during the last two decades. Mono-angular5 multi-spectral sensors on polar-orbiting platforms usefully complement this potential monitoring system by providing better coverage of polar regions (especially important during summer). The accuracy of the estimates needs to be assessed, as they often rely on the accumulation of data over 2 weeks or more, during which atmospheric conditions may vary considerably. 66 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Action: Gridded measurement of the directional hemispherical reflectance factor, bi-hemispherical reflectance factor, fraction of direct radiation and fraction of diffuse radiation need to be generated from the data holdings at the space agencies at spatial scales of 1 – 3 km on a daily basis. These should be generated from current, future and archived satellite observations. Space Agencies are best placed to design and implement a coherent strategy for the operational production, archival and distribution of global land surface albedo products on a sustained basis. Research teams have designed algorithms, some of which have already been implemented in space agency ground segments (notably NASA and EUMETSAT). These products need to be validated, compared across instruments, and benchmarked across institutions and continents to ensure coherency in space and time. Action: The CEOS Working Group on Calibration and Validation has begun an albedo validation activity and this should be coordinated with the recent CGMS activity. The work of the CGMS and CEOS WGCV for generation and validation of the albedo suite of gridded products is welcome and should be supported by the relevant Parties. ECV – Land Cover Land cover and cover-change force climate by modifying water and energy exchanges with the atmosphere, and by changing greenhouse gas and aerosol sources and sinks. Land cover distributions are largely determined by regional climate, so changes in cover type and associated land use distributions can indicate climate change. Although land-cover change can be measured using data from Earth observing satellites the currently available data sets vary significantly, are of uncertain accuracy and use different land-cover-type characterization systems. Data are also provided from different sources and at different spatial resolutions. Moreover there are no current plans to provide operational long term satellite systems capable of providing the long term records needed. Action: Parties with Space Agencies should obtain commitments for 10 – 30m resolution optical systems with spatial, spectral and data-acquisition characteristics consistent with previous systems. Some Space Agencies, working with the research community are generating global land-cover products at resolutions of 250m – 1km, but the lack of compatibility between the products means that there are significant difficulties in using them to measure and monitor climate-induced or anthropogenic changes in land cover. Currently a range of approaches are adopted; e.g. centralized processing using a single method of image classification (e.g. MODLAND) and a distributed approach using a network of experts applying regionally specific methods (e.g. GLC2000). Using a single source of satellite imagery and uniform classification algorithm has obvious benefits in terms of consistency, but may not yield optimum results for all regions and all land cover types. Automated land cover characterization and land cover change monitoring thus remains a research priority. Regardless of how the databases are generated the legends must adhere to internationally agreed standards. Action: In the long-term land cover monitoring standards should be agreed by a relevant intergovernmental Technical Commission (see general introduction to this section). In the immediate term however full benefit should be taken of existing initiatives, e.g Action: Use the FAO’s Land Cover Classification System for legend harmonisation and translation and the legends published by the IGBP and the GCOS/GTOS science panels. 67 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Any global land cover databases must also be accompanied by a separate description of by-class thematic/spatial accuracy. Action: the accuracy assessment should be based on a sample of high-resolution (1 - 30 metre) satellite imagery, themselves validated by in-situ observations wherever possible. The CEOS WGCV, working with GCOS/GTOS science panels are establishing agreed validation protocols, which should be used. As a minimum new land cover maps documenting the spatial distribution of land cover characteristics with attributes suitable for climate, carbon and ecosystem models (e.g. include wetland information forest peatlands (boreal), mangroves, sedge grasslands, rush grasslands and seasonally flooded forests) should be produced at 250m – 1km resolution every year. Action: This production will involve space agencies for processing the EO data used in the database production, the FAO/science panels to ensure legend relevance and standards and the research community for optimising image classification approaches. Mechanisms to fund such partnerships are emerging (e.g. GMES) but not yet guaranteed on a sustained basis. In addition to their use in climate models, annual 250m – 1km resolution global products will identify areas of rapid change though the development of automated detection of changes in land cover characteristics remains high on the research agenda. Action: research funding guarantees. To quantify changes in land cover characteristics mapping at resolutions of 10 to 30 meter is required every 5 years. Global data sets of satellite imagery at 30 m resolution have been assembled for selected years and some regional land cover maps have been generated from these. The technologies have been developed and tested (e.g. Landsat ETM and SPOT HRV), suitable methods for land cover characterization on these scales exist, but institutional arrangements to ensure operational generation of land cover at these resolutions are not yet in place. Fine resolution maps to measure changes in land cover are ideally needed every 5 years. Samples of fine resolution satellite imagery have been used to estimate change and are proposed for example by the FAO’s Global Land Cover Network (GLC-N). Initiatives such as the GLC-N will provide much needed capacity building and offer a framework for acquisition of in-situ observations to support the satellite image based monitoring. Action: Space agencies should assure that suitable optical sensors with 10-30 m resolution are flying and acquiring data. The FAO/science panels (e.g. TOPC, GOFC and TCO) should ensure legend relevance, and validation protocols. Institutional mechanisms to ensure repeated mapping should be put in place. ECV – Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) fAPAR measures photosynthetic activity, and indicates the presence and productivity of vegetation. Spatially-detailed descriptions of fAPAR provide information about the strength and location of terrestrial carbon sinks, and can be of value in verifying the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol’s flexibleimplementation mechanisms. fAPAR is not directly measurable, but is inferred from models describing the transfer of solar radiation in plant canopies, using remote sensing observations as constraints. Action: Space Agencies and other entities should continue to generate weekly to 10-day global fAPAR products at 250 m – 1 km resolution and make them widely available. Generation of global fAPAR using NASA and ESA satellite measurements has recently commenced on a regular basis, but funded under research budgets, as are archiving and distribution. Spatial resolutions lie 68 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT between 250 m and 1 km, which meets GCOS requirements. Daily recovery of fAPAR is possible in principle, but cloud and haze normally lead to fAPAR values that are multi-day ‘averages’, in some sense. fAPAR can be recovered from a range of sensors by various algorithms. Action: CEOS WGCV should lead benchmarking and comparison of these fAPAR products and the algorithms used to generate them. The relevant agencies and their partners should participate in these campaigns. Reference sites making in situ observations should form part of this process. Action: WGCV is identifying a core set of sites and measurement campaigns at these should be supported. This should build on the validation activities currently being undertaken by the Space Agencies and associated research programs. To detect trends in the presence of inter-annual variability requires long time-series; hence the full existing archive of satellite data for which consistent correction for the atmosphere is possible (i.e., those having at least the blue channel in their spectral coverage) should be processed. Action: time series should be constructed by those agencies holding the archives. Performance indicators are continual reporting of fAPAR from a growing number of reference sites, and representativeness of sites amongst major biomes and land cover types; publication of fAPAR benchmarking results and the provision of global validated fAPAR products with quantified uncertainties in gridded format suitable for ingestion into stand-alone vegetation models and the land surface component of coupled biosphere-atmosphere models. ECV – Leaf Area Index (LAI) LAI measures the amount of leaf material in an ecosystem, and imposes important controls on processes, such as photosynthesis, respiration and rain interception, that couple vegetation to climate. Hence it appears as a key variable in many models describing vegetation-atmosphere interactions. LAI can be estimated by in situ measurements using commercially available LAI meters. Around 20 sites have been established as part of the LAInet programme sponsored by NASA and this is complemented by the BIGFOOT programme and LAI measurements at some FLUXNET sites. CEOS WGCV is playing a co-ordinating role in this work. Action: Space agencies and others generating LAI products should co-ordinate with WGCV for validation. For reasons set out below, in some parts of the globe (e.g., the humid tropics) LAI can only be measured by in situ methods. However, the measurement network is sparse. The development and maintenance of reference sites to address this inadequacy should be addressed. Action: build on existing networks such as Fluxnet, LAInet and BIGFOOT. The retrieval of accurate estimates of LAI from space is difficult: when the canopy cover is sparse, reflectance measurements are dominated by soil properties and the accuracy of the LAI is low; for LAI values exceeding 3 or 4, the measurements saturate. Also, since the LAI measured by satellites is inferred from reflectance, it is tightly coupled to fAPAR, and the two quantities are completely equivalent in some algorithmic schemes. Nonetheless, regular global LAI estimates from space are currently being produced and should be continued (this requires little extra resource above that required to produce fAPAR). These have the same spatial resolutions (250 m to 1 km) and temporal frequencies (7 to 10 days) as the fAPAR products. 69 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Both because of the inherent difficulties in recovering LAI, and the fact that there are significant differences in the methods being used, benchmarking and comparison of these LAI products is essential. As for fAPAR, this should be led by CEOS WGCV, exploiting in situ observations from designated reference sites, and building on the validation activities currently being undertaken by the Space Agencies and associated research programs. Performance indicators are continual reporting of LAI from a growing number of reference sites, and representativeness of sites amongst major biomes and land cover types, publication of LAI benchmarking results and provision of global validated LAI products with quantified uncertainties in gridded format suitable for ingestion into stand-alone vegetation models and the land surface component of coupled biosphere-atmosphere models. ECV – Biomass Biomass plays two major roles in the climate system: (i) photosynthesis withdraws CO2 from the atmosphere and stores it as biomass; (ii) the quantity of biomass consumed by fire affects CO2, other trace gases and aerosol emissions. Only above-ground biomass is readily measurable as part of a global system, and most nations have schemes to estimate woody biomass through forest inventory (little is recorded on non-forest biomass, except through agricultural yield statistics); this typically forms the basis for the annual reporting on forest resources required by the UNFCCC. Experimental airborne sensors have demonstrated technologies for estimating biomass (low-frequency radar, lidar) that are capable of satellite implementation and could provide global biomass information at sub-kilometric resolutions. There are limitations to these technologies, some known (for example, saturation of radar backscatter at higher levels of biomass), some still the subject of research. National inventories differ greatly in definitions, standards and quality, and the detailed information available at national level is normally unavailable. Nonetheless, these form the basis of the county by country summary statistics published by FAO in their Forest Resource Assessments. Biases and uncertainties in these summary values are not quantified. The only available global gridded biomass dataset is that from the World Resources Institute; based on existing databases supplemented by satellite observations. The accuracy, resolution and currency of this dataset are unknown. Although a unified standard for biomass inventories should be a long-term aim, the achievable mediumterm aim, with marginal resource implication, is adequate reporting of the methods employed, together with accuracy assessment. This information should be included in the FAO Forest Resource Assessments. Action: Countries to provide information on methods used for national inventories as provided to FAO’s Forest Resource Assessment. Progress towards creating global gridded biomass datasets can be achieved by appropriate satellite missions, notably active microwave systems and lidar. Action: The space agencies should plan for such missions, supported by experimental programs to reduce their risks. ECV – Fire Disturbance The emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from fires are important climate forcing factors; fires also have a large influence on the storage and flux of carbon in the biosphere and atmosphere and can cause long-term changes in land cover. Fire is a prominent disturbance factor in most vegetation zones throughout the world. In many ecosystems fire is a natural, essential, and ecologically significant force, organizing physical and biological attributes, shaping landscape diversity, and influencing energy flows and biogeochemical cycles, particularly the global carbon cycle. In some ecosystems, however, fire is an uncommon or even unnatural process that severely damages vegetation and can lead to long-term degradation. Such ecosystems, particularly in the tropics and the boreal zone, are becoming increasingly 70 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT vulnerable to fire due to growing population, economic and land-use pressures, and such shifts could also be a strong indicator of changing climate. Moreover, the use of fire as a land-management tool is deeply embedded in the culture and traditions of many societies, particularly in the developing world. Given the rapidly changing social, economic and environmental conditions occurring in developing countries, marked changes in fire regimes can be expected, with uncertain local, regional, and global consequences. Even in regions where fire is natural (e.g., the boreal zone), more frequent severe fire weather conditions have created recurrent major fire problems in recent years. The incidence of extreme wildfire events is also increasing elsewhere the world, with adverse impacts on economies, livelihoods, and human health and safety that are comparable to those associated with other natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, droughts and volcanic eruptions. Despite the prominence of these events, current estimates of the extent and impact of vegetation fires globally are far from complete. Several hundred million hectares of forest and other vegetation types, including organic layers of periodically dry peatlands, are estimated to burn annually throughout the world, consuming several billion tons of dry matter and releasing gaseous compounds and aerosol that affect the composition and functioning of the global atmosphere and human health. However, the vast majority of these fires are not monitored or documented. Informed policy and decision-making clearly requires timely quantification of fire activity and its impacts nationally, regionally and globally. Such information is currently largely unavailable. Some Space Agencies, working with the research community have been generating regional and global fire disturbance products (burnt area and active fire). Space-borne thermal and optical sensors have been used to determine the location of active fire events, the spatial extent of the burnt area and the location and size of smoke plumes and haze. Monthly measurements of global burnt area are required at a spatial resolution of 250m (minimum resolution of 1km) and active fires should be monitored daily from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) polar orbiting satellites near the peak of the daily fire activity. Some geostationary satellites allow monitoring of active fires at a coarser resolution every 15 minutes. Action: A global suite of fire products from the operational geostationary satellites needs to be developed. These moderate resolution products can complement detections from sensors on polar orbiting satellites, provide information and diurnal dynamics of fire activity and fill the gaps in coverage. The GTOS’ science panel Global Observations Of Forest Cover - Global Observations Of Land Cover Dynamics (GOFCGOLD) is establishing global fire observing network building on contributory projects. Action: The Space Agencies should promote the integration of satellite-based fire products into gaseous compound and aerosol modelling systems. Improved communication between the atmospheric modelling and remote sensing communities is needed to establish data coverage and quality requirements. The GCOS and GTOS science panes should facilitate this dialogue. The various space-based products require validation, and inter-comparisons would confirm fitness for purpose. Validation of medium and coarse resolution fire products involves field observations and the use of high-resolution imagery, in strong collaboration with the local fire management organizations and research community. Action: The CEOS WGCV, working with the GOFC-GOLD is establishing internationally agreed validation protocols and these should be applied to all data sets before their release. These protocols include the establishment of accuracy measures that are useful for the specific target user community. Institutional arrangements between the fire data producer and user communities need to be made to improve communication and to facilitate the exchange of remote sensing and in-situ validation data. 71 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Action: COES WGCV and GOFC-GOLD should establish a clearing house of validation data for product development. Action: The space agencies should (continue to) generate, archive and distribute individual fire products, but a single data clearing house should provide centralized identification of data holders. The UN-affiliated Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) could in the first instance act as a data clearing house. Action: Approach GFMC for clearing house function. Earth observation satellites have been providing measurements suitable for fire mapping from the early 1980’s. A historical record of fire activity and burnt area should be prepared by reprocessing these archived data (1982 – 2004). The reprocessing would need to address known problems, such as directional effects, georegistration errors, sensor saturation, instrument calibration drifts, atmospheric correction, and biases caused by sampling and averaging for global area coverage data where the original resolution observations are not available. [TR18] Action: a comprehensive inventory of the historical records of satellite data needs to be compiled. An intercomparison of fire products from different sensors, including sensors from different platforms and from the same satellite series need to be carried out to minimize spatial and temporal discontinuities. Community consensus, regionally applicable algorithms need to be developed. An important question is related to fire intensity and severity, which are important determining agents of the impact of fire on the ecosystem including post-fire development. There are a range of ecosystems where fires of low to medium intensity and severity are beneficial for ecosystem stability and productivity. High-severity fires coupled with other natural and anthropogenic disturbances will lead to destruction of vegetation cover and secondary disasters, resulting in loss of ecosystem stability, productivity and a net flux of carbon to the atmosphere and terrestrial deposits. Action: a new suite of remote sensing-based fire intensity and severity products to needs to be developed, taking advantage of the improved sensor characteristics on current research and experimental satellites. The transition of experimental products to the operational domain needs to be facilitated. Data continuity to the new generation sensors on future operational environmental satellite series needs to be ensured. Whilst progress is being made on fire area and occurrence a particular gap concerns fire risk. From a climate change impact perspective assessments of changing fire risk is important. Action: The space agencies should promote the development and improvement of fire danger rating systems applicable to global and regional assessment. The integration of conventional environmental observations with measurements from environmental satellite platforms needs to be encouraged. Table 35. Observation networks and systems and existing international data centers contributing to the GCOS Terrestrial Domain TERRESTRIAL DOMAIN ECV Contributing Network(s) International Data Center(s) and Archives Contributing Satellite Data 2AR FINDIN River Discharge See research T2 Proposed GCOS Baseline River Discharge Network based on GRDC priority list. Global Terrestrial Network Global Runoff Data Center (Ger.) 72 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT for Hydrology (GTN-H) Lake Levels Proposed GCOS Baseline Lake Level, Area, and Volume Network Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology (GTN-H) Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology (GTN-H) Ground Water Extraction Rates Amount and Area of Irrigation Snow Cover See Research Glaciers and Ice Caps Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground Spectrally integrated Bi hemispherical reflectance factor (Albedo) No formally recognized center. Proposal for center…global lake area and level data center. For both in situ and satellite data. International Ground Water Assessment Center (IGRAC) Neth. FAO services FAO WWW/GOS Synoptic Network National Networks Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) National Monitoring Networks Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) National Monitoring Networks None… but reference benchmarking needed Historical Land Use World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) Switzerland Global Resource Information Database (GRID) UNEP National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Held by Space Agencies. Benchmarking will be CEOS WGCV… global product assembly Proposed Altimetry, high res. optical and reprocessing T2 T2 See Research T2 Visible and Infrared Passive microwave Visible and Infrared T3 T4 Synthetic Aperture Radar Thermal T5 Geostationary Polar Orbiters T6, T7 GCOS Principles applied to measurements RIVM Ramankutty Land Cover (including vegetation type) GLC-N TOPC+ TCO+ GOLD+ IGBP+ IPCC, CEOS WGCV UNEP GRID MODIS, MERIS, VGT AATSR JERS ERS T8, T9, T10 Fraction of absorbed Photosynthetica lly Active Radiation (FAPAR) Leaf Area Index (LAI) Land Surface Temperature Biomass Fluxnet MODLAND network (NASA) TERACC (LAND IGBP) BASIN CEOS WGCV (coordination function…data held by LAInet, BIGFOOT ) Vis (BGR) Nir… T11, T12 T12 Fluxnet MODLAND Forest inventory data Vis nir multi angular Thermal See research 73 Low frequency radar and lidar T13 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 Fire Disturbance GOFC Regional Networks DRAFT WFMC, UNEP - GRID, GOFC-GOLD DRAFT DRAFT Visible and Infrared SWIR and Thermal T14, T15 Table 36. Actions proposed (Terrestrial Domain) Ref. No. TR1 TR2 TR3 TR4 TR5 Action (A): Implementation action proposed or required Who (W): Proposed responsible Parties/Institutions Time-frame (T): Action accomplished by Date Performance Indicator(s) (P): Measures by which progress will be assessed. A: River Discharge: Submission of daily river discharge data from all 300 of world's largest rivers to GRDC W: National Services T: Complete compliance by 2009. Continuous. P: Completeness of data base at GRDC, Reporting to UNFCCC A: Determine operational status of gauges at all 300 of world's largest rivers and provide this info to GRDC W: National Services T: Complete compliance by 2009. Continuous. P: Completeness of data base at GRDC, Reporting to UNFCCC A: National Hydrological Services to collaborate with GTN-H through GRDC to distribute near real time river discharge data according to agreed standards. W: National Services, GTN-H, GRDC T: Complete compliance by 2009. Continuous. P: Completeness of data base at GRDC, Reporting to UNFCCC A: Lake levels: Arrangement for an active data center- archive for Lake level/area W: GTN-H, Countries T: Operations by 2009 P: Commitment by host country A: Lake levels: Submission of monthly lake level and area data for the 145 largest lakes to designated international data center W: National services T: Continuous P: completeness of data base, reporting to UNFCCC A: Altimeter derived Lake levels: Submission of monthly lake level and area data for the 145 largest lakes to designated international data center W: Space Agencies T: Continuous P: completeness of data base, reporting to UNFCCC A: Ground Water: Estimates of the yearly volume of groundwater removed from each aquifer W: National Hydrological Services T: available by 2005 P: Published guidance package A: Ground Water and Water Use: Establishment of IGRAC - beginning of provision of integrated products on ECVs Ground Water and Water Use W: Netherlands T: ??? Initiating operation 2003?? P: Formal commitment A: Define requirements of international, regional, national and local communities for irrigation 74 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 TR6 TR7 TR8 TR9 TR10 TR11 TR12 TR13 TR14 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT water use information. W: FAO T: By 2005 P: availability of user requirements A: archive and disseminate information related to irrigation and water resources through its online AQUASTAT database and other means. W: FAO T: By 2005 P: availability of user requirements A: Snow Cover: Strengthen and maintain existing observing sites (200) and recover historical data. W: National services T: Continuing P: Data submission to WDC A: Snow Cover: Establish international data center and analysis center responsibilities W: NSIDC?? T: ?? P: Commitment by host nation A: Glaciers and Ice Caps: Maintain current observing sites and add additional sites in the South America, Africa, and New Zealand. W: National Services coordinated by GTN-G and WGMS T: Continuing, new sites by 2009. P: Completeness of database. Initiation of new sites. A: Perform 10-year inventory. W: National Services coordinated by GTN-G and WGMS and space agencies T: Continuing, new sites by 2009. P: Completeness of database. Initiation of new sites. A: Ensure continuity of cryospheric missions W: Space Agencies T: Continuing, following demise of ICEsat and Cryosat in next 3 – 5 years. P: Completeness of database. Initiation of new sites. A: Permafrost: Maintain the 150 current boreholes and add 150 more in high mountains of Asia W: National Services/Research Inst. Coordination through GTN-P and IPA T: Continuing. New sites by 2009 P: Completeness of database. Initiation of new sites. A: Permafrost: Develop international observing standards and practices. W: GTN-P and IPA T: Complete by 2005 P: Published guidelines A: Albedo: Implement a system to retrieve land surface albedo from geostationary and polar orbiting satellites on a daily and global basis. Undertake reanalysis. W: Satellite operators (CGMS) in cooperation with research groups T: Define system by 2005, complete reanalysis 2009, operation continuing. P: Integrated Analysis availability A: Albedo: Implement in situ Calibration /validation facilities W: Satellite operators in cooperation with CEOS WGCV T: Operation by 2007 P: Data available to analysis centers. A: Land Cover: Establishment of international standards and specifications for the production of land cover maps. W: Scientific community in cooperation with satellite operators. GTOS convening authority. T: Standards by 2005. P: Publication of standards and specifications A: Land Cover: Reanalysis of historical record and preparation maps with high spatial and decadal resolution. 75 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 TR15 TR16 TR17 TR18 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT W: Research/analysis center in cooperation with satellite operators T: Reanalysis complete by 2005. Operation continuing. P: Availability of maps A: Land Cover: application of CEOS WGCV validation protocols W: National research institutes/space agencies T: Network established by 2009 P: availability of validation statistics. A: generate continuous fields products W: Research centers in cooperation with satellite operators. T: by 2005 P: Data set availability A: FAPAR and LAI : Establishment of a cal/val network of in situ observing sites (reference sites) W: Research centers in cooperation with satellite operators coordinated by CEOS WGCV T: Network operational by ?? P: Data available to analysis centers A: FARPAR and LAI products to be made available as gridded products . W: satellite operators and WGCV and TOPC T: 2005 on P: Agreement on operational product A: FARPAR and LAI: Evaluate the various FAPAR and LAI satellite products and benchmark against ground truth to arrive at an agreed operational product. W: Research centers in cooperation with satellite operators and WGCV and TOPC T: Benchmark by 2006 P: Agreement on operational product A: information on methodology for forest inventory information W: FAO and countries T: By 2009 P: Availability of consistent statistical info A: Fire Disturbance: Reanalysis of historical satellite data W: Space agencies T: By 2010 P: Establishment of a consistent data set A: continued generation of active fire and burnt area products W:space agencies in collaboration with gofc gold T: continuous Performance Indicator: A: availability of gridded fire and burnt area products through a single clearing house W: gofc-gold, wfmc T: continuous Performance Indicator: data availability A: apply ceos wgcv, gofc-gold validation protocol W:space agencies and research organizations T: by 2006 Performance Indicator: publication of accuracy statistics. 76 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Appendix 1 The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate (2AR) was prepared in response to a request from the GCOS Steering Committee and endorsed by the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) at its 15th session in November 2001. The goals of the Report were to: Determine what progress has been made in implementing climate observing networks and systems since the First Adequacy Report in 1998; Determine the degree to which these systems meet with scientific requirements and conform with associated observing principles; and Assess how well the current systems, together with new and emerging methods of observation, will meet the needs of the Convention. The 2AR concluded that there have been improvements in implementing the global observing systems for climate, especially in the use of some satellite information and in the provision of some ocean observations. However, serious deficiencies remain in their ability to meet the identified needs. For example: Atmospheric networks are not operating with the required global coverage and quality; Ocean networks lack global coverage and commitment to sustained operation; and Global terrestrial networks remain only partially implemented. Satellite operations while critical for global coverage need to better reflect climate requirements and the maintenance of key sensors ensured. There remain unmet requirements for the production of global integrated analysis products. The SBSTA 18 noted that the "second adequacy report provides an opportunity to build momentum among governments to improve the global observing systems for climate, but that work remains to be done to identify priorities for actions, to remedy deficiencies within the domain-based networks, and to estimate the cost implications". It requested Parties to submit views on the priorities for actions arising from the second adequacy report, "as a further step towards the development by the GCOS secretariat of an implementation plan for integrated global observations for climate". 77 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Appendix 2 GIP Wiring Diagram re International Infrastructure Hierarchy: Governing bodies of international agencies. ICSU UNESCO and IOC WMO UNEP FAO (need to formalize?) EOS Ministers (special case but probably at this level) Agency Secretariats Intergovernmental bodies dealing with climate observations. IPCC JCOMM I-GOOS CBS CAS CHY CCl (this has been neglected but could be an “agent”) Others…. Scientific Programs and Advisory/Steering committees to the intergovernmental bodies WCRP GCOS Steering Committee and AOPC, OOPC, TOPC IGBP Climate observation (and service?) systems; GCOS made up of contributions from: Satellite Operators WWW GAW GOOS GTOS WHYCOS Others…. (GCOS Secretariat?) Coordination mechanisms supporting observational objectives CGMS CEOS IGOS-P 78 GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Figure 5. GCOS Organizational Relationships UNESCO UNESCO UN UN ICSU ICSU WMO WMO FAO FAO IOC IOC UNEP UNEP JCOMM CBS CAS CHY NEW TERR . Bdy CG MS GCOS GOOS WWW GAW WHYGOS XX 79 GTOS Space Agencies CE OS GCOS Implementation Plan (V.3) – 10-Mar-04 DRAFT GCOS Secretariat Global Climate Observing System c/o World Meteorological Organization 7 bis, Avenue de la Paix P.O. Box No. 2300 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland Tel: +41 22 730 8275/8067 Fax: +41 22 730 8052 Email: gcosjpo@wmo.int 80 DRAFT DRAFT