Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
533579252
4.2. Estimating the Severity of the Situation
Session-at-a-glance
Content
Approximate
Time
Instructional Activity
Estimating Severity
45 minutes Plenary presentation & Q&A
Exercise 4.2. The “Minimum Cost
Food Basket”: Challenges in Using the
Method
45 minutes
Total Time
90 minutes
Small Group Work and Feedback
to Plenary
Session Objectives
After this session, participants will be able to:

List various indicators of severity of crisis

Explain the meaning and value of the “convergence of evidence” approach

Describe the “needs” vs. “food basket cost” method of estimating the food access gap
Session Supplies

Power-point: 4.2. Estimating Severity of Situation.pptx

Exercise 4.2. The “Minimum Cost Food Basket”: Challenges in Using the Method
Key Messages
Severity of a crisis of food insecurity is determined through analyzing a number of factors,
including, for example:

Magnitude: No. of individuals/HHs whose lives & livelihoods are potentially at risk
(compared with previous situations)

Size of food access or consumption gap

Historical comparisons: comparing current population in severe food insecurity with
previous situations

Increase in mortality rate (beyond norm for area)

Acute malnutrition rates
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Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
533579252
Convergence – or comparing different factors – can be a powerful way to determine the
severity of a crisis, particularly when different indicators lead to the same conclusion or show
similar patterns.
The difficulty with relying on “convergence of evidence” is that multiple sources are
generally used (e.g. the method used in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
(IPC) which combines information from different sources to position a crisis on a scale of
severity). Thus, the evidence is only as good as the sources that are collecting the data.
Reliance on “convergence of evidence”, then, requires some consideration by the assessment
team of the competence of those sources.
One method of estimating the food access gap – and thus, of the severity of the situation – is
to calculate the monthly cost of a basic, nutritious food basket for a typical household and
then determine how many households earn less than that amount every month. (Those who
earn less than the monthly cost of the food basket are likely food insecure.)
Guidance Materials
WFP EFSA Handbook, Second Edition / January 2009, pages 164 – 169.
Facilitator Guidance and session preparation
Take your time going through the Dili example provided in the PPT file, as this information will
be needed for the small group discussion that follows.
Be sure to familiarize yourself with the PPT animations in the file: they help to guide the
presentation and follow-up discussions.
Room Setup
Arrange for both plenary and small group work in the plenary conference room.
Session Activities
Estimating Severity
45 minutes
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Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
533579252
Use PPTs 1-4 to present the session, its objectives, the EFSA “Where are we” process guide, and
why estimation of severity is required.
Use PPTs 5 – 6 to present and discuss the “convergence of evidence” method of estimating
severity of a crisis. Try to get the participants to add other indicators to those on PPT 5. On PPT
6, note the limitations of the method: your data are only as good as the sources collecting them.
Note with regard to PPT 6 that this is the method used by the IPC. The difficulty – as noted – is
the fact that multiple sources must often be used. Reliance on various sources should be done
with care. (Assessors must avoid the tendency to accept more easily others’ indicators that seem
to confirm their own tentative conclusions, and to ignore those that point in other directions.)
Use PPTs 7-12 to present the minimum cost food basket method of estimating the food access
gap. Note in particular:

PPT 8: Ask the participants to propose the categories of information needed to
calculate the minimum nutritious food basket. Note these on a flip chart as they will
prove helpful to the small group discussions.

PPT 10: Go through the basic calculations on the slide:

Column 1 constitutes the food items needed to produce the nutritional
elements on the preceding slide

Column 2 is the number of grams needed daily to provide this nutrition

Column 3 is column 2 multiplied times 30 (days) in kilos (divided by 1000)

Column 4 is the market cost per kilo for each food item

Column 5is column 3 multiplied by column 4

PPT 11: Note then that HHs earning less than $77.00 per month are likely to find it
difficult to obtain their minimum needs. Ask the participants what this statement presupposes (i.e. that the HH is dependent upon food purchases for its nutritional needs.)

PPT 12: Review the bar chart and show that the cost of minimum food basket does
seem to pick up most of the severely food insecure – although some (24%) remain
severely food insecure despite earning more than the minimum $77. Ask why this
might be? (Most likely, they have other expenses that must be paid, and therefore
cannot buy enough to be food secure.)
Exercise 4.2. The “Minimum Cost Food Basket”: Challenges in Using the Method
45 minutes
Show PPT 12 and ask the participants in their small groups to consider the factors that likely
made the “minimum cost food basket” method possible in the Dili example – as well as the
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Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
533579252
factors that would make such a method more challenging in other situations. Have them note
their responses on the flip charts.
Give them about 20 minutes (+/-) to discuss. Then ask groups to present their responses and look
for major commonalities or differences.
Possible responses include:
Factors making Dili example feasible
Urban assessment
More HHs reliant on the market and food purchases
(easier to obtain actual expenditures on food basket)
Less own agriculture
Factors making method challenging elsewhere
Rural HHs somewhat less reliant on market purchase –
more difficult to ascertain “minimum cost” and actual
expenditures
Access to own agricultural production makes it more
difficult to determine consumption amounts
If there is time after groups have presented, ask them if there are outstanding questions with
regard to severity and estimating food access. This step, along with estimating numbers of
affected is one of the most difficult in the situation analysis. Be sure to spend time exploring
other methods that participants may have used and discuss the advantages and limitations of
those methods.
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