Revised
April 21, 2004
Demand- and Supply-Driven International Agricultural Research:
Setting the Agenda for Global Public Goods
Dana G. Dalrymple1
“Science must combine with Practice to
constitute enlightened and skillful Agriculture”
-
Mount Airy Agricultural Institute, 18492
“The alliance of theory with practice must not be broken”
-
Henri Poincaré, 19033
Abstract
“Demand-Driven” agricultural research is becoming an increasingly popular mantra in
the international development arena. It represents not so much an economic as a political
approach and is largely focused of the process for setting the agenda for public research.
It is essentially a “bottom-up” (user) approach. While it has in part grown out of what
has been perceived as too much a “top down” (researcher) approach in some cases in the
developing nations in the past, it is not by itself a panacea. Indeed, if taken too far, could
represent a narrow and hazardous path, both in terms of getting good applied research
and for meeting broader and longer-term needs, particularly in a global context. Other
participants and perspectives are needed, especially scientists who can, among other
contributions, provide a broader vision of what is possible given the knowledge and
techniques available (the “supply” side). The overall challenge, recognized by some over
a century ago, is to achieve a more balanced combination of “science with practice”.
This leads well beyond economics into a fairly broad, complex, and not wholly
traditional array of issues in the allocation of limited public research resources. The topic
is examined in the context of a rather wide spectrum of literature and recent experience in
the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (the CGIAR).
1
Senior Research Advisor and Agricultural Economist, International Research and Biotechnology Team,
Office of Environment and Science Policy, Bureau for Economic Development, Agriculture and Trade,
U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. [ddalrymple@usaid.gov]. This paper is an
outgrowth of two others on, respectively, agricultural research and scientific knowledge as public goods
(Dalrymple, 2003a, 2003b) and is related to a third on impure public goods and agricultural research
(Dalrymple, 2003c). The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily those of USAID.
2
From the letterhead and Catalogue (1849) of the Institute, Germantown, Pennsylvania (also see Fletcher,
1955). The statement may have been derived from the motto of the Royal Agricultural Society of England
(established in 1838/1840): “Practice with Science” [www.rase.org.uk/centre/science.html].
3
Poincaré (1910, p. 279); as cited by Galison (2003, p. 50). From a talk at the École Polytechnique,
January 25, 1903. His point of reference was the bond between the abstract and the concrete that was an
essential feature of the École.
2
I.
Introduction
Increasing attention is being given to “Demand–Driven” public agricultural research in
international and national fora.4 The recent summary of an FAO e-mail conference on
biotechnology, for instance, states that “The agricultural research agenda should be
defined using a ‘bottom-up’ approach, based on the needs of local communities in
developing countries” (FAO, 2004, p. 1). Similarly, a review of agricultural research in
Africa notes that the “old” agenda was supply driven whereas the “new” agenda is
demand-driven (Chema, et al., 2003, pp. 11, 49-51). The concept has also played a key
role in discussions of reform in extension and research systems.5
Demand in these cases is not to be interpreted in the same way economists usually use the
term in a market context – as the amount that will be purchased at a given price at a given
time. It is more akin to a dictionary definition of the word: to ask for urgently or firmly;
to need or require as useful or necessary (Webster’s II). It represents the demand for a
public good or service. Such decisions, as Buchanan (1968, p. 5) puts it, “are made
through political, not market institutions, and there is no analog to competitive order that
eases the analytical task.”
As played out so far in the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
(CGIAR),6 use of “Demand-Driven” appears to represent two interrelated desires: (1) for
a more geographically decentralized approach to developing the research agenda of the
CGIAR; and (2) for farmers, their organizations, and their advocates, to play a larger role
in this process. Supply-Driven research is less often mentioned as such, but seems to
refer to researcher-initiated or top-down approaches. There is also a third category:
Donor-Driven research. In any case, little attention seems to have been given to
representation of perhaps the main beneficiary of agricultural research, the consumer.
The Demand-Driven approach has evidenced some of the political dimensions alluded to
by Buchanan. While it may provide a useful corrective for some sins and omissions in
research in the past at the national and local level in developing nations, it needs to be
more fully balanced with the supply side in global and international agricultural public
The origin of the term “Demand-Driven” research in agriculture is obscure. While there is a considerable
amount of literature in the rural development and farming systems area that might point in their direction
(e.g. Chambers, 1984, and Collinson, 1999), I have not been able to track down early use of the term itself.
Kaimowitz, et al. (1990, pp. 252-253) briefly discussed “Producer-, research- and policy-driven
technologies.”
4
For example, a report on “Agricultural Knowledge and Information Systems for Rural Development”
(AKIS/RD), refers to making them more “demand-driven” (FAO, 2000, p. 14). Similarly, a recent article
relating to Africa notes an assumption that a more “demand-driven” system “will improve both relevance
and effectiveness” (Sumberg, et al., 2004, p. 133).
5
6
The CGIAR is an informal association of donors that sponsors 15 international agricultural research
centers. A wide array of information on the CGIAR is provided can be readily obtained from the group’s
web site [www.cgiar.org]. Several other international centers are not members of the CGIAR.
3
goods research of the type carried out by the CGIAR.7 There is danger that what may be
true at one level is not equally applicable at another level – a fallacy of composition.
Perceptions of the most appropriate way of carrying out priority setting may also vary
depending where one sits and are influenced by the subject, the location, time, and time
span. Macro and micro variables as well as exogenous and endogenous forces have to be
woven together - and rewoven again as perceptions, styles, and strategies shift. Financial
and scientific resources will change. So will the roles of the public and private sectors. It
is a complicated and dynamic topic.
It is also one that is not, as Buchanan suggests, easily captured in a traditional economic
framework. I will, therefore, take a broader approach here. On one hand, I look at
priority setting in the context of a rather wide range of literature in history, philosophy,
business, and other fields. On the other hand, priority setting is viewed in terms of the
realities encountered in international agricultural research as drawn from long personal
experience with the CGIAR. The result is an interplay of theory and practice.
II. Priority Setting for Public Research
As background, it may be useful to look at the more general problems and processes of
priority setting in public research and then consider some applied examples.
A. Differing Perceptions
We start with two rather different views of the priority setting process, one by an
economist and the other by a philosopher of science.
1. An Economist’s View. A generalized framework for viewing the supply and
demand for agricultural innovation, adapted from an earlier diagram by de Janvry, is
provided in Figure 1. The categories presented in circles represent the perceptions or
actions of individuals or institutions represented by the three boxes. The model is
focused at the national level (though Pray, 1983, applied it in a study of the Punjab) and
does not explicitly include several of the drivers of research to be discussed in this note,
or natural resources, but they could well be added. Moreover, the loop is presented as
flowing clockwise; there could well be feedback loops. Thus, while perhaps incomplete
for our purposes, the model provides a useful starting point for thinking about the issues
be discussed in this note.
In presenting the model, de Janvry (1978, pp. 301, 303; also see 1977, pp. 552-556)
indicated that the central node is the payoff matrix in the upper right corner that specifies
“the net economic gains and losses that any particular set of interest groups expect to
result from the implementation of any set of alternative latent public goods (technical and
7
While my comments are ultimately aimed at the global level, it must be noted that the CGIAR is not
totally a global enterprise. It focuses on developing nations and contains several centers that basically
operate at the regional level and one at the sub-regional level. Moreover, virtually all the centers carry out
projects, often special projects supported by restricted funding, at the subregional/national/local level.
4
institutional innovations).” This is played out through the political-bureaucratic system
and process that provides the allocation of public resources to innovation-producing
institutions.” “Within these institutions, the store of scientific knowledge and the size of
allocation of physical and human capital to basic research will determine the position of
the production possibility curve.” Similarly, the amount of “capital allocated to applied
research will determine the intensity of the search for new…techniques along the
production possibility curve.” “And the resulting actual supply of innovations, through
its effect on components of the socioeconomic structure, produces specific actual payoffs
for each social group.”
2. A Philosopher’s Approach. Kitcher (2001), a philosopher of science, has
explored the problems of determining socially significant research topics and priorities in
an effort to reach what he calls “well-ordered science. He identifies three somewhat
differing complaints: (1) preferences of large segments of the public are consistently
neglected; (2) inquiry is distorted because the untutored preferences of outsiders lead to
the neglect of problems of real significance; and (3) the coherent systemization of widely
shared preferences would recommend different priorities (p. 127).
In
the case of (1), however, problems arise when representation of perspectives outside of
science works too well, taking the situation into category (2): “Because the preferences of
the vast majority of citizens are untutored, areas of science that depend heavily on public
funding can be shaped by governmental decisions that respond to widespread ignorance,
with the result that practical projects whose significance can be easily appreciated are
overemphasized with concomitant neglect of questions of large epistemic [theoretical]
significance” (p. 129).
As a possible solution, Kitcher prefers enlightened democracy in which decisions are
made by a group that receives tutoring from scientific experts and accepts input from all
perspectives that are relatively widespread in society (p. 133). This is a promising
approach and deserves further attention.
B. Patterns of Farmer Involvement
The pattern of farm organization involvement in research planning varies rather sharply
between developed and developing countries. Farmers in developed countries are
generally well organized and along with the extension services and other agencies advise
public authorities of their research needs. In the U.S., this takes place at both the State
and Federal levels (in the latter case, very elaborate processes exist [see NRC, 2002, pp.
85-90]).8 Emphasis is given to the identification of problems and to comments on their
8
The USDA process was intensified by the Agricultural Research, Extension, and Education Reform Act
of 1998 (P.L 105-185). Experience with some aspects of it has been mixed (NAS, 2002): “Important issues
have arisen about [1] how to ensure balanced input and [2] how to translate the frequently overwhelming
amounts of information and diverse perspectives into focused research priorities.” (pp. 86-87). The report
also states that “stakeholder involvement does entail transaction and opportunity costs…”, and “Whether
those transactions costs ever outweigh the overall benefits is unclear” (p. 91). The benefits (it is unclear
how they were or would be measured) appeared to be greatest in the case of natural resource issues and
with stakeholders who are new to agricultural research (p. 91). Further analysis is clearly needed.
5
special or relative importance. The selection of research approaches is normally left to
the researchers who may see problems in a larger scientific context and may bring quite
new technologies into play.9 Their options, however, may increasingly be constrained by
environmental or health concerns (GMOs are a case in point).
In general, farmer organizations and extension services are considerably less fullydeveloped in the third world. Farmers’ organizations “may lack the capacity to analyze
members constraints, aggregate, and prioritize needs and articulate them” (Spillane, 2000,
p. 124). Farmers may, of course, be more interested in the final innovation than the
actual research process.10 Still, there are some examples of farmer involvement in
decision-making structures of national agricultural research institutions (see Spillane,
2000, pp. 122-124, and Byerlee and Echeverria, eds., 2002).
To some extent, non-government organizations (NGOs) and private voluntary
organizations (PVOs) have filled the breach. They are, however, a very diverse group:
NGOs tend to be very localized, some operate primarily as advocates; PVOs, as defined
here, are international in nature (Oxfam, CARE, World vision, Catholic Relief Services,
etc.), carry out field programs, and employ well-trained agricultural specialists. The
degree to which they contribute to agricultural development and informing the
agricultural research process is probably quite variable (assessments tend to vary,
sometimes rather sharply; see, for example, Uphoff, 2002, and White and Eicher, 1999).11
Even so, foreign assistance donors have been promoting greater “stakeholder”
participation in planning agricultural research and extension. As Sumberg, et al. (2004,
p. 133) observe: “A key assumption underlying current reform efforts…is that
decentralization and greater stakeholder participation in decision-making and
implementation will improve both relevance and effectiveness.” They note that questions
have been raised about the validity of this assumption in Africa, the argument being that,
“aside from a few relatively well endowed areas in a small number of countries, the
conditions do not yet exist in which these reforms can take root” (p. 141). Their
conclusion is that “the new reform agenda is unlikely to be an important part of a solution
to the problem of rural poverty in Africa” (p. 141).
9
One striking example is controlled atmosphere (CA) storage of fruit, which greatly extends storage life
(Dalrymple, 1969). It had a long and international background: the basic concept originated with Bernard,
a French chemist in 1820 and much of the early research was done in England starting in 1918. I helped
operate one of the experimental CA rooms at Cornell in the early 1950s and a CA storage was later built on
our farm.
10
There is a rapidly expanding literature in innovation systems, which extend beyond research to include
extension and education (see, for example, FAO 2000).
11
NGOs/PVOs are institutional components of a larger category known as Civil Society (see Kaviraj and
Khilnani 2001, and Lewis 2002). Runge, et al. (2003, p. 126) state that “Because of their general focus on
participation, NGOs tend to see the proper scale of economic and social organization as local and
decentralized, casting them as antagonists to both public and private institutions with global scope.”
6
The question of farmer representation is particularly perplexing at the international level,
and especially so for the CGIAR. From the start, half of the members of its Technical
Advisory Committee (TAC), now the Science Council (SC), has been from developing
countries. The CGIAR centers (half of whose board members are also from developing
countries) have long relied on feedback from national agricultural research organizations
(NROs) and other contacts of various types. There has been extensive interaction at the
scientist level and a great deal of collaborative research, which keeps the center scientists
in close contact with local conditions.
But there are limits as to how far this process can go. And there is uncertainty as to the
degree to which extension programs in developing countries provide useful feedback,
especially as they have generally grown weaker in recent years.12 NGOs and civil society
groups have, on the other hand, grown more active and in some cases more vocal. The
degree to which these groups provide a systematic, widespread, and representative
reflection of farmer’s needs and views is unclear. All of this has led to interest in a more
regional approach to planning in the CGIAR.
C. Approaches to Research Planning in the CGIAR
The Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) of the CGIAR has, from the outset of the
CGIAR in 1972, been concerned with the establishment of priorities and strategies for the
system. It has issued assessments roughly every five years. It adopted what was largely
a convergence approach in which the importance (value) of the commodity was give
primary attention (see TAC 1985 for an example). Over time, as the CGIAR broadened
its range of activities to, particularly in the case of natural resources (forestry,
agroforestry, fish and water), an associated ecoregional approach, and poverty alleviation,
a modified congruence approach was developed (see TAC, 1994, pp. 18-21, 89-131).
The modified approach had considerable value, but still did not effectively deal with the
above issues, regional considerations, and other topics such as policy and training.
Consequently a more consultative approach was developed (see CGIAR, 2002). It has
involved the Global Forum on Agricultural Research (GFAR), regional and sub-regional
organizations, and the CGIAR centers to “facilitate regional consultation processes to
establish a regional approach to research planning and implementation for the CGIAR
and NARS”. Initial emphasis was given to “piloting an experimental bottom-up priority
setting approach” in the Central America sub-region. 13
12
Questions have long been raised about the degree to which the presumed feedback process involving
extension has worked. Some maintain that the result has been a largely one-way, top-down process, often
known as the linear model. Biggs (1990) has examined this situation in terms of central versus multiple
sources of innovation.
On a different front, a new African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) plans to utilize “a
demand-driven, participatory, bottom-up process” to identify constraints. Once priority crops and traits are
identified, it will “consult with potential technology providers, in both the public and private sectors, to
identify technologies address those priority needs.” AATF, 2002, pp. 8, 10 [www.aftechfound.org]; for a
recent more general news account about AATF see Gillis (2003).
13
7
A conceptual paper was prepared. The basic objective was to seek complementary
actions at several levels. For the national agricultural research systems (NARS) in the
region, this meant “seeking at the regional level advantages that they could not derive
solely from a national level approach, thus complementing and supplementing the
national approach.” “For the CGIAR, it means seeking complementary gains that it
could not achieve exclusively through a global or ecoregional approach.” A number of
potential advantages, as well as risks and limitations were outlined.
Two principal further steps were undertaken: (1) a pilot experiment was carried out in
Central America, and regional consultations were carried out elsewhere and (2) papers
were prepared on “CGIAR Research and Poverty Reduction”, ”A Regional Approach to
Setting Research Priorities and Implementation…”, and two papers on national research
performance in Africa. One of the challenges reported to the group in 2001 was the
question of “How best to introduce the perspectives of NGOs, farmers associations, and
the private sector into the planning process?” The process continues, but as yet has
probably not reached the point where overall conclusions can be developed.
In initiating a new revision of its periodic Priorities and Strategies paper, the Interim
Science Council, the successor of TAC, initiated a virtual (internet) consultative process
that was carried out in two stages, the first involving a general expression of needs
(April/May 2003) and the second an assessment by the scientific community (October
2003). The exercise included four regional panels and one global panel in both stages (I
participated in the global panel in both cases). The second stage also included thematic
panels. While this approach has certain limits, it appeared to be a useful, relatively quick,
and inexpensive way to engage a wide and international array of opinion.14
III. Demand- and Supply-Driven Research
It may be useful to next look at Demand- and Supply-Driven Research in the context of
the private, public, and mixed public and private situations. In the private sector,
traditional economic market forces might be expected to accentuate the demand
component, while in the public sector - in the form of the CGIAR - the political process
might influence demand in a somewhat different manner.
A. The Private Sector
The role of market demand forces or demand-pull in shaping the innovation process,
primarily in industry, was initially examined by Schmookler in 1966. He maintained that
“demand-side considerations are the major determinant of variations in the allocation of
14
The limitations primarily relate to the sample of individuals involved, the variable nature of their
participation, and the process for drawing conclusions. Although an effort was made to develop reasonable
balance in the composition of the groups, the degree of participation, especially for those who were
traveling, was quite variable. The process required access to a computer over about a month. It also was
difficult to get deeply into more complex questions and develop a dialogue in the time available. This
placed some limitations on the process of developing or reaching a conclusion. It is probably not a suitable
replacement for a face-to-face final decision process, but it could certainly help set the stage. And the
technique could improve with practice.
8
inventive effort to specific industries” and regarded “supply side considerations
[including science and technology] as relatively subordinate and passive” (Rosenberg,
1974, pp. 92, 93). Rosenberg, in response, stated that “if we want to explain the
historical sequence in which different categories of wants have been satisfied via the
inventive process, we must pay close attention to a special supply side variable: the
growing stock of useful knowledge” (p. 98).
Mowry and Rosenberg subsequently examined the role of these forces in the United
States (1982). While some individual studies suggested that market forces govern the
innovation process, they found that this “is simply not demonstrated by the empirical
analyses that have claimed to support the conclusion” (p. 194). Their study, though
confined to industry and now somewhat dated, seems to have considerable relevance, in
its broad message, to the subject of this paper.
Overall, they report: “Our purpose, obviously, is not to deny that market demand plays an
indispensable role in the development of successful innovations. Rather, we contend that
the role of demand has been overextended and misrepresented, with serious possible
consequences for our understanding of the innovative process and of appropriate
government policy alternatives to foster innovation. Both the underlying, evolving
knowledge base of science and technology, as well as the structure of market demand,
play central roles in innovation in an interactive fashion, and neglect of either is bound to
lead to faulty conclusions and policies” (pp. 194-195).
With respect to demand itself, they state: “In order to retain its analytic content, market
demand must be clearly distinguished from the potentially limitless set of human needs
(p. 229). Moreover, “To establish the primacy of demand-side factors, one has to show
that demand conditions changed in ways more significant or decisive that changes in
supply conditions – for example, in cost.” But “…the ‘demand pull’ approach simply
ignores or denies, the operation of a complex and diverse set of supply-side mechanisms
that are continually altering the structure of production costs” (p. 231).
In general, the authors stated that “Rather than viewing either the existence of a market
demand or the existence of a technological opportunity as each representing a sufficient
condition for innovation to occur, one should consider them each as necessary, but not
sufficient, for innovation to result; both must exist simultaneously (p. 231).” General
Electric which has recently decided to increase the proportion of its central research
activities spent on longer-term projects (Deutsch, 2002) in order to make greater use of
“the central lab to study things that require major technological breakthroughs.”15
This revives the original ideas of Charles Steinmetz, over 100 years ago. “Steinmetz did not want this
lab to worry about next quarter’s product…He wanted it to work on the next big idea, even as [the
individual laboratories of] G.E.’s businesses were refining the last one”. For background on corporate
research in the U.S. see Dennis (1987), Reich (1985), and Wise (1985).
15
9
B. The Global Public Sector: CGIAR
The CGIAR provides a striking example of the roles of Demand- and Supply-Driven
public research at the international level. We will view it in terms of participants,
uncertainties, and limitations of each approach.
1. Participants at the International Level. Agricultural research in the CGIAR,
as in all applied research organizations, is influenced by the needs of society, political
forces, factor endowments and scientific opportunities.16 The players and the process
however, are somewhat different at the international level than at the national level.
This is largely because of the nature of the CGIAR itself. It is basically a group of rather
diverse donors, ranging from international assistance agencies in developed countries to
regional and international development agencies and banks to foundations and
developing countries themselves. It provides an umbrella and central clearing house for
their contributions - of both an unrestricted and restricted nature - to individual centers
and programs. Each donor decides on where his funding goes; there is essentially no
pooling. In this way, there can be, especially through restricted funding, a Donor-Driven
element in addition to the Supply- and Demand-Driven components. Still, the CGIAR
sets the basic terms of reference.17
The Technical Advisory Committee (and the subsequent interim Science Council) of the
CGIAR has long been the major source of scientific advice to the system. It has been
composed of eminent biological and social scientists and research administrators from
developed and developing countries. Individual centers have tailored their own
approaches within this broader framework, but have also drawn on their own experience
and interaction and collaborative research with national and other scientists. More
recently, as noted earlier, increasing attention has been given to incorporating feedback at
the regional level. Still, this approach might be viewed by some as more top-down than
bottom-up, especially when viewed at the local level.
A more global perspective might suggest that the real comparative advantage of the
CGIAR system is to complement, not to partly replace, national and local research
activities. It does this by providing global/international public goods for their adaptation
and use (see Dalrymple, 2003a and 2003b). This flow is often referred to as “spillover”
by economists (see Alston, 2002). The consultative and collaborative aspects of this
process provide a vital source of feedback. Since the focus of the core research programs
16
Factor endowments play a major role in the Induced Innovation view of technological change elucidated
by Ruttan and Binswanger (see Ruttan, 2001, pp. 101-118, 188-196 and Binswanger and Ruttan, 1978). It
has been suggested that this approach might be considered a macro-economic precursor to the more microeconomic approaches to demand-driven research (e-mail from Jim Ryan, Jan. 1/03).
17
Donor-Driven research can share some characteristics with Supply-Driven and/or Demand-Driven
research. In the case of unrestricted funding, inasmuch as it follows the TAC/SC recommendations, it may
be closer to Demand-Driven Research; in the case of restricted funding if may be closer to Supply-Driven
research. Other forces and/or institutions may also influence the process.
10
of the centers should generally be on issues of widespread importance, some selectivity
and priority setting is needed, particularly as the CGIAR system accounts for less that
five percent of all the funding for research in the developing countries. This guidance has
been well provided by TAC/ISC, but not always followed by donors (OED, 2003, p. 24).
The principal constraint is restricted Donor-Driven funding, which is usually destined for
more narrowly defined projects in terms of geography and time, and that may have a
larger development component. These projects are classified as restricted funding and
are largely beyond the purview of the Science Council. Where they represent a shift in
funding from core support, they diminish the resources available for longer-term and
more globally-oriented research. A recent review of the CGIAR stated that this shift has
transformed “the CGIAR’s authorizing environment from being science-driven to being
donor-driven, and a shift in the System from producing global and regional public goods
toward providing national and local services” (World Bank, 2003, p. 3).18
2. Uncertainties in International Research. It is true, of course, that not every
research program at every center has turned out quite as expected or even as successful as
anticipated or desired. As Evans (1993, p. 367) has observed, a common feature of
agricultural research is “that its eventual benefits turn out to be quite different from those
foreseen or intended.” This is not necessarily bad, and, is a basic characteristic of all
research everywhere.19 Whether this general situation would have been, on balance,
materially changed for the better in the case of the CGIAR if there had been a greater
“Demand-Driven” element is uncertain, because of possible tradeoffs. A number of
factors – some not normally considered - may influence the outcome. Three examples
drawn from the CGIAR follow.
- While some products of research may not find immediate acceptance, the demand for
them may change over time. One such case is high quality protein maize (QPM). While
based on a promising discovery in 1963, many years of research were needed by the
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) to work out a number of
practical problems (NRC, 1988). This process was completed by the mid-1980s, but the
product – which was of value to both humans and livestock - did not take off in terms of
usage, in part because of problems in funding and carrying out field tests on humans and
the economics of livestock feed. Active research was largely discontinued by CIMMYT
in the mid-1990s. At the end of the decade, however, adoption began to pick up and in
2000 the CIMMYT researchers were awarded the World Food Prize. In that year, QPM
18
Perhaps partly in response to this statement, it appears that the shift toward restricted funding was
arrested in 2003, and the proportion of unrestricted funding increased from 42% in 2002 to about 44%
(preliminary data provided by Shey Tata, CGIAR Secretariat, World Bank, Washington. D.C., April 7/04).
Whether this is a temporary situation remains to be seen (restricted funding is also variable). But in any
case, the unrestricted level is much too low, and should probably be at least in the 50% to 60% range.
As Polanyi (1946, p. 17) puts it: “The propositions of science [hypotheses] thus appear to be in the nature
of guesses.” Or, in Ziman’s words (1976, p. 338): “Who can know the outcome of an experiment? If the
result could be predicted, then the experiment would be unnecessary.”
19
11
was reported planted on over one million hectares (2.5 million acres) in 11 countries and
released in seven others (CIMMYT, 2000; CGIAR, 2004).20
- Differing types of research may require a differing amount of interaction in
development than others. A vivid example was provided in a recent study, conducted at
the International Price Research (IRRI), of four mechanical technologies involved in rice
production and harvesting (Douthwaite, Keatinge and Park, 2001).21 The major
conclusion was that “…as technology and system complexity increase, so does the need
for interaction between the originating R&D team and the key stakeholders (those who
will directly gain and lose from the innovation) when the latter first replicate and use the
new technology.” (p. 819). The key question was the degree to which the technologies
required major changes in the ways farmers did things. Obviously, those that require a
considerable amount of interaction over several years might better involve an
intermediary body at the national level rather than further stretch already limited CGIAR
center staff and funding. 22
- The nature of the technology may change over time in response to farmer-researcher
interaction and the need to adapt to local conditions. A striking example is provided by
Alley Cropping. As originally conceived by the International Institute of Tropical
Agriculture (IITA), this technology involved continuous cultivation of annual crops
within hedgerows formed by leguminous trees and shrubs. The latter were periodically
pruned and their biomass applied as mulch to the annual crops or fed to livestock (in
which case it is known as Alley Farming). Although there was some adoption, which
continues, the technology did not live up to expectations, in part because of heavy labor
requirements. Over time, however, the practice was – following considerable researcherfarmer interaction - substantially modified to better meet a wider range of cultural
conditions and economic realities. This process has gone so far in some areas, involving
dropping the leguminous hedgerows, that it could be characterized as a different
technology. (Adesina and Chianu, 2002; Douthwaite, et al., 2002a; e-mails from Peter
Hartmann, IITA, Jan./03 and Dyno Keatinge, ICRISAT, Jan./Feb./03.)
20
A variant of this situation, which also involved CIMMYT, is provided by triticale, a cross between wheat
and rye, which draws plant hardiness from rye. It was first developed in 1876 but several plant and grain
quality problems hindered its use. CIMMYT first took up research in 1964 and made a number of
important improvements (NAS, 1989). By the early 1990s, it was grown on about 4.2 million acres (1.7
million ha.) worldwide, but most of this was in transition and developed nations (Bertram, 1993, p. 14).
CIMMYT has continued a minimal research program, but even that has come under question except as a
special project (e-mail from M. Morris, CIMMYT, April 15/04). Situations such as this present difficult
policy choices. [Awaiting further information on present status in developing countries.]
21
Some of the issues they examined were anticipated in a more general way by Kaimowitz, et al. (1990, pp.
248-260). Also see Pingali, et al. (2001, pp. 594-597).
22
Similar questions might be raised about the degree to which CGIAR centers should be involved in
participatory research (see Bellon and Morris, 2002, for a summary review and Thiele, et al., 2001, and
Gladwin, et al., 2002, for case studies; more general and varied views are provided in: Conway, 1997;
Conway and Toenniessen, 2003; Sumberg, et al., 2003 and 2004; and Uphoff, 2002).
12
3. Limitations of Supply- or Demand-Driven Public Research. Each approach
has its limitations. These have long been voiced in the case of Supply-Driven research.
The limitations of the Demand-Driven approach have received less focused attention,
particularly in an international context.
Criticism of the Supply-Driven or top down approach started centuries ago. The Paris
Academy of Sciences, established in 1666, had for years “been attacked as self-appointed
elitists who disparaged popular inventors and thinkers” (Alder, 2002, p. 99; also see
Hahn, 1971). In 1943, Sir Albert Howard, an agronomist and proponent of a more
organic approach to agriculture, lamented the bureaucratic complexities and gap between
science and practice in the British and colonial research structure (pp.181-191) as well as
the baleful influence of economists (p. 198). More recently, Chambers (1984, p. 101)
urged “outsider professionals, the bearers of modern scientific knowledge, to step off
their pedestals, and sit down, listen, and learn.” Scott (1998, p. 305) has referred to the
“unscientific scorn [of scientists] for practical knowledge.” Within the CGIAR, QPM
and Alley Cropping might be considered as examples of initially Supply-Driven
approaches to public research which followed different paths, and illustrate some of the
limitations (as well as ultimate possible benefits) of that approach.
On the other hand, a Demand-Driven approach to public research also has some inherent
limitations, especially at the international level. A review of literature suggests six of
primary importance:
• Farmers, influenced by their immediate and highly visible needs, are more apt to
have a shorter-term outlook about their research needs. They are less likely to be
concerned with or aware of the opportunities likely to flow from longer-term research
programs (see Merrill, 1962, pp. 431-432; Kaimowitz, et al., 1990, pp. 252-253; Pingali,
et al., 2000, p. 605; and Spillane, 2002, p. 124).
• Producers are, in economic terms, more likely to favor research that provides
producers surplus, research that benefits them, rather than consumers surplus, research
that benefits consumers (de Gorter and Zilberman, 1990, p. 136; Roseboom, 2002, pp.
173-174).23
• Within rural societies in developing nations, rural elites can dominate these
processes (de Janvry, et al., 1989, pp. 377-379; Sims and Leonard, 1990, pp. 46-47, 70;
Ryan, 2002, p. 17; Chema, et al., 2003, p. 50; and Sumberg, et al., 2004, p. 141).
• The “demand” perspective is essentially limited to farmers: the views of consumers,
as noted earlier, are much less likely to be represented.
• These and other constraints become accentuated as the geographic scope is
broadened, and it is increasingly difficult to know what voices to listen to and how to
weigh them. 24
23
Farmers are, of course, consumers as well; it is the off-farm consumption dimension that gets
overlooked.
24
This was, as mentioned earlier (fn. 14) a problem in the recent ISC electronic exercise in priority setting.
The CGIAR helped sponsor the establishment of the Global Forum on Agricultural Research (GFAR),
noted earlier. This group, however, is primarily composed of representatives of national agricultural
research organizations in developing nations. The difficulty is in reaching beyond this group.
13
• Finally, as Ryan (2002, p. 17) has noted: “Demand-driven approaches are limited in
their ability to guide macro priority setting because of the wide diversity of their clientele
and the complexity of their systems.”
In addition, this approach entails some costs, both of a direct budgetary nature and
indirectly in terms of other opportunities forgone. Both assume increased importance in
periods of stagnant or declining research budgets.
The producer/consumer balance comes up in two of these points and might be worth
further mention as it is also relevant to Supply-Driven research. Normally the benefit of
research to producers is greatest for early adopters of technology and fades away for late
adopters due to price reductions associated with increased supply.25 On the other hand,
the benefit to domestic consumers through lower prices is of widespread and continuing
importance (except in the case of exports). 26 Benefits to intermediate groups, such as
laborers and marketers of inputs and outputs, are not usually considered in assessments of
producer and consumer surplus. Thus in setting priorities for publicly-funded research,
attention should be extended beyond the farm level.
The lesson to be drawn from this is that each approach, Supply- and Demand-driven, has
limitations as an approach to priority setting in agricultural research in the public sector.
Each may overlook critical social factors: neither is a panacea. The challenge is to
develop a mechanism that combines the best and most appropriate aspects of each, in a
way that provides the greatest public good.
C. A Mixed Public and Private Case.
So far, we have discussed the private and the public sectors (private and public goods)
separately. The real world is more of a mixture and the result is a predominance of
impure public goods (see Dalrymple, 2003c). A useful example of the latter is provided
by the introduction of zero (ZT) tillage in Brazil (Ekboir, 2003; also see Ekboir and
Parellada, 2002). This proved to be a very prolonged process and ultimately had many
actors from many sectors and levels. It started with the development of a science-based
herbicide by the private sector, but also involved an initially reluctant public sector and
technology developments at the farm level without an understanding of the scientific
process behind them.
The early development of ZT was supply-driven and showed that “public research
programs based only on technical demands [from the farm sector] may be too narrow
because researchers have the best understanding of potential uses for their research
outputs. Establishment of research priorities should consider supply as well as demand
components ((Ekboir, 2003, p. 585).” It was also noted (p. 584) that the tendency to
Where there is a segmented and persistent gain to producers from research, they might be expected to –
and often do in developed countries – help pay for it through an industry-wide cess or tax (see Byerlee and
Echeverria, eds., 2002 and Spillane, 2002, pp. 122-124). It may, however, be difficult to determine the
proportion that should be paid by producers.
25
26
For a detailed recent assessment of the effects of the Green Revolution, see Evenson and Gollin (2003a,
2003b).
14
centralize priority setting in public institutions and to manage by objectives has meant
that it is increasingly difficult for individual researchers “to follow lines of research that
are not officially recognized,” with the inevitable result that “they discourage creativity
and risk-taking by researchers.”
There could be many more examples of public-private interaction, particularly in the
plant breeding and biotechnology spheres. This is an area that will undoubtedly be of
increasing importance and raises interesting and complex issues of priority setting. Who
leads and who follows? How is the public good to be balanced against the private good?
How are the needs of the poor to be adequately represented and implemented? How are
local interests to be weighted against global interests? How are intellectual property
issues to be resolved? The list could, and will likely, go on.
IV. Finding an Appropriate Balance at the Global Level
Obviously, from the perspective of this paper, some sort of balance is needed between
Demand and Supply dimensions in public research at the international level.27 Few
research programs can afford to have their researchers completely follow their instincts.28
But equally, there is a danger if global research organizations, such as the CGIAR, totally
focus on localized and short-term market demands. The challenge is to obtain the most
useful and productive combination of theory and practice both at the global and the local
levels and in the short and long run.
On one side is the siren call of relatively pure science. As Popper (1972, pp. 135, 280),
one of the most famous philosophers of science, has written: “The aim of science - the
growth of knowledge - can be identified with the growth of the content of our theories.”
“Bold ideas, unjustified anticipations, and speculative thought, are our only means for
interpreting nature….” The importance of this process is underlined by Callon (1994, p.
416), who goes on to state that “If we want to grasp the real economic significance of
science, we need to recognize it as a source of variety…. It causes new states of the
world to proliferate.” Or, as Lawrence Summers, then Chief Economist at the World
Bank put it more pragmatically in 1991 (p. 14): “In a world that is short on money, ideas
are important – and it takes research to generate ideas.”
Ideas can range from very theoretical to very practical. The CGIAR focuses on applied
research. Scientists at IRRI conceived of a new plant type and saw the potential of the
semi-dwarf varieties which were at the heart of the Green Revolution. The same was true
of the early work of Norman Borlaug on semi-dwarf wheat, first for the Rockefeller
27
This general point was made previously by Byerlee (2000, p. 429) and may well have been recognized by
others. He wrote, in the context of a policy for targeting poverty, “This will involve a combination of
supply- and demand-driven approaches to priority setting at different levels in the research system that will
enhance both the efficiency and poverty alleviation impacts of research.”
James Conant, a former president of Harvard, once stated: “To advance scientific knowledge, pick a man
of genius, give him money, and let him alone” (Conant, 2002, prefatory notes).
28
15
Foundation and then at CIMMYT.29 A former WARDA (West Africa Rice Development
Association) scientist will share the 2004 World Food Prize for combining the best
qualities of African and Asian rice varieties into a New Rice for Africa (NERICA), which
is still in its early adoption stage. Some products of research, such as the QPM or Alley
Cropping examples cited earlier, may not initially find widespread adoption, but come
into favor as conditions and attitudes change.30 Other examples might well multiply in
the future as developments in higher science open up new worlds in agricultural research.
The ability to generate new ideas is certainly not limited to scientists, but they have the
knowledge and tools to see possibilities that would not be visible to laypersons. This is a
precious resource.
On the other hand, local forms of knowledge can aid and abet the scientific process. The
NGO Committee of the CGIAR and other groups have rightly drawn attention to the
importance of indigenous knowledge at the farm level (whether it is indigenous science
as was mentioned in one Committee statement, is more uncertain). By itself, such
knowledge – largely obtained by trial and error – cannot be easily scaled up.31 But
centers can and do utilize such knowledge in fashioning their own programs, such as in
recent research by IRRI on intercropping (IRRI, 2002).
Another way of looking at this goes back, curiously, to the brownian ratchets of physics
and to Darwin and might be termed a “random-generation/natural selection model”.32
The basic idea of “generating order by ‘selecting’ from random variations is hardly new –
it is the fundamental idea of Darwin’s theory of natural selection” (Oster, 2002, p. 25). In
the research context, one variant could refer to accidental discoveries - serendipity - both
by scientists and farmers. These discoveries can set the stage for further such findings,
which, depending on where they occur, could appear to be supply- or demand-driven.
The key is to encourage variety (as suggested by Callon above) and then both scientists
and farmers would make their choices – a “user-chosen” scenario. And these two groups
could in turn interact, stimulating further variety and choice.
29
On the other hand, Borlaug and others initially encountered considerable conservatism among some
scientists in developing countries who were “reluctant to think in strategic terms about the country’s needs”
(Wortman and Cummings, 1978, p. 336).
30
Such situations provide a particular challenge to the research community. As Arthur (1989, pp. 127-128)
put it: “a central authority could underwrite adoption and exploration along promising but less popular
technological paths. But where eventual returns to a technology are hard to ascertain…the authority then
faces…a problem of choosing which technologies to bet on. An early run of disappointing results…from a
potentially superior technology may cause it perfectly rationally to abandon this technology in favor of
other possibilities.”
Scott (1998, pp. 304-305), a proponent of such knowledge, acknowledges that “They [farmers] are also
limited by what they observe; microprocesses only visible in the laboratory necessarily escape them. Nor is
it clear that the ecological logic that seems to work well on a single farm over the long haul will at the same
time produce sustainable aggregate results for an entire region.”
31
32
This term, the general idea, and the following citation, were suggested to me by William Masters (e-mail,
5/23/03). He was thinking primarily of the farmer or demand-driven side, but it seemed to me that it could
apply equally well to the scientist or supply-driven side.
16
Research drawing on and tempered by experience, and experience tempered by research,
can make a powerful combination. As David and Foray (2002, p. 18) have written “The
sectors where knowledge creation has occurred at an extremely rapid pace are those in
which the relationships between science and technology are especially close and intense.”
Both elements are needed, but generally neither should totally dominate. The big
challenge is to develop an appropriate balance for the particular level of research
involved and a relatively efficient way of coming to a decision.
V. Concluding Remarks
The vital point to come out of all of this is by now evident: the successful identification
and resolution of scientific problems in the public sphere in agriculture, especially for
global public goods, cannot best be handled by a simplistic approach to priority setting
derived solely, or even largely, by either Demand- or Supply-Driven manifestos. Neither
approach is, by itself, a very good way of guiding applied research.33 A blend is required
to provide the needed fusion of theory and practice emphasized by Poincaré (1910, p.
279), Bernal (1969, vol. 4, pp. 1223-1224, 1295), and others. The challenge is to find the
appropriate balance, and this will likely be different at the global, regional and national
levels. In the case of the CGIAR, this may be somewhat different for the system as a
whole than for individual centers.
Moreover, the process should to take a larger and longer-term view of the research
agenda, one that more adequately deals with the broader and longer-term needs of
society. This is difficult because we are dealing with a variety of needs, often of an
immediate nature, that are expressed through the political process. And as Buchanan
said: “there is no analog to competitive order that eases the analytical task” (1968, p. 5).
The analytical dimension is particularly difficult at the international and global level
where there are many voices expressing many needs, but where there is no public funding
or decision-making mechanism comparable to those at the national level.
Perhaps some version of the “enlightened democracy” concept suggested earlier by
Kitcher (2001, p. 133) would be worthy of exploration. At the global level, this might
take the form of a “demand-informed” but “supply-led” approach to research priority
setting.34 For the CGIAR, it is fairly easy to identify the organizational sources of
“supply-led” dimension at the system level: the new Science Council and the scientific
staff of the individual centers, drawing on others. Organization of the “demand
33
Galison (2003, p. 328) concludes, in a different context (the simultaneous measurement of time and the
development of the science of relativity) that in recent years “it has become commonplace to pit bottom-up
against top-down explanations” and that “neither will do.” He then goes on to cite a medieval expression
that “In looking down we see up; in looking up we seen down. That vision of knowledge serves us well.”
This approach, suggested by two reviewers, is only a partial step towards Kitcher’s formulation in that it
does not embody an intermediate group to receive tutoring from scientists and to accept input from all
perspectives. It differs from past practice in the CGIAR in that it more specifically incorporates a demandinformed dimension. Involvement of an intermediate body would be difficult to do at the global level.
34
17
informed” dimension is more challenging, but might build on work carried out by the
Interim Science Council and noted earlier. Expansion of the approach to regional,
national, and local levels could be more complex and might require different players and
different balances between the “supply” and “demand” dimensions.
In any case, there is a certain element of research - often a very useful one - which cannot
be totally planned, either from the top or the bottom. It may arise from individual
initiative or hunches. Or it may arise from synergism. As Lord Acton (1834-1902)
recognized: “There is nothing more necessary to the man of science than…the use of
hypothesis, of imagination, the mode of testing” (cited by Popper, 1972, p. 14). To
provide room for this creative dimension, or to more actively encourage it, some
flexibility must be built into the overall scientific effort.35
These issues and ideas are relatively easy to state. Finding the way to strike an
appropriate balance between a fuller range of “Demand” and “Supply” factors in an
under-funded and overloaded work environment at the global level, such as in the
CGIAR, is a much more difficult task. But it is vital to do so in order to maintain an
innovative and productive research system that has the capacity and the flexibility to
meet longer-term global challenges. Indeed, the critical need is to combine scientific
knowledge with responsible action to provide the public goods needed by global society,
both now and in the future.
****
Annex: Research and Knowledge Flows in Agriculture
Some of the major components of the preceding discussion may be represented in graphic
form. I have tried to do so, in the context of knowledge flows and participants in Figure
2, which is cast in the form of a quadrant.36 The horizontal axis refers to the geographic
scope of research, from local to international and global. The vertical axis is the two-way
flow of information, from formal scientific knowledge at one end to indigenous
knowledge at the other end.37 Knowledge also, and this is vital in terms of spillovers,
moves horizontally. Where these horizontal and vertical effects are combined, there may
be diagonal shifts.
The four quadrants refer to the major participants in the processes. The upper two (1 &
2) represent the more formal research sectors and the bottom two (3 & 4) the less formal
Still, some structure is needed: not all scientists are equally creative, and in those cases, “Their capacities
may well be put to best use in routine tasks within an organized scheme” (Ziman, p. 338).
35
36
There could be a third dimension, possibly reflecting, for instance, the extent of involvement by the
private sector.
37
The balance between the magnitude of the relative knowledge flows, in this case suggested by the
thickness of the arrows, could well vary as one moves from the left to the right (up-flows perhaps gaining
in importance with shifts to the left and down-flows with shifts to the right).
18
and more development-oriented sectors. There is, in reality, considerable overlap
between the quadrants. From an organizational point of view, the IARCs (quadrant 2) are
also active in quadrant 4; the same may be true of some of the institutions listed in
quadrant 3. Some PVOs (quadrant 4) may, on the other hand, have activities that fall into
quadrant 2. Overlap can also occur in the case of (1) genetic resources (vertical and
horizontal) and (2) participatory research (vertical). Biological and political barriers,
may affect the flow of embodied knowledge in both directions.
Within the CGIAR, some attention has sometimes been given to the possible devolution
of certain research programs from the international centers to strong national research
programs (a move to the left on the diagram), with an appropriate transfer of funds. 38
This has not occurred to any appreciable extent because of a host of practical problems
(handling funding; national constraints on interaction with, or germplasm flow to, certain
countries; lack of international status). Varying national attitudes toward biotechnology,
especially genetic modification, might further complicate the process today. It could, of
course, be done by the centers on a specific contractual basis, but has limitations as a
general tool.
Other actions – some intended, some not - shift the locus or focus of research to the left
and down – “downstream.” The substantial increase in the proportion of restricted
funding in the CGIAR, noted in the text, usually involves research is of a more limited
geographic scope and time horizon. Where this reflects a shift from unrestricted funding,
the result can be relatively less research of a more fundamental and/or long-term nature.
Some NGO advocacy groups tend to think in terms of regional rather than global research
(e.g., NGO, 2002)
Yet many of the scientific opportunities as well as the opportunities for synergies and
spillovers lie in moving the CGIAR centers to the right and up - “upstream” toward
higher and more globally-oriented science. This is where the comparative advantage of
the CGIAR Centers lies. To the extent that they are able to make this shift, the centers
can help elevate, through collaborative efforts, the research capacity of national
programs. Thus there may be both synergies and tensions, complementarities and
competition, between “upstream” and “downstream” research efforts.
****
Acknowledgements
Helpful review comments provided by many individuals. I would particularly like to
mention, without implicating, Robert Evenson, Elon Gilbert, Hans Gregersen, Timothy
Kelley, William Masters, John Mellor, Vernon Ruttan, Jim Ryan, and James Sumberg.
38
This is sometimes cast in terms of subsidiarity, a World Bank and European Union term. The key
question is whether the functions can be performed as efficiently and effectively. Few, if any, guidelines
are provided for making this determination.
19
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