“The Transit Issue between Bangladesh & India”
Abstract:
Economic integration, faithful relationship, exploit less market structure, safe border
system are necessary for the development of the sub-continent. Now-a-days transit is one
of the most popular & crucial matter for mutual development.Transit issues have long
been a subject of debate, but we think the issue should be looked at from a business and
economic point of view rather than a political one. The issue can be looked at positively
if our economy benefits by providing transit facilities to our neighbors. Bangladesh can
become a regional transport hub. she can benefit tremendously through opening up transit
and great opportunities for crossing from east to west and giving the land-locked
neighbors access to the sea. The Chittagong port can become a modern busy port like
Singapore serving the SAARC countries and even China. Huge foreign investment may
be attracted to Bangladesh and finally a throbbing service sector like banks, insurance,
hotels, rest houses, petrol pumps etc. There is an estimate of direct economic gain from
transit fees. It ranges from 500 crore taka to 4,666 crore taka per year. The last but
not the least, is the mutual transit. Bangladesh, in return, will get a much shorter route to
China, which already is its second largest trading partner. Unfortunately, most of the
trading now-a-days takes place through sea-route. The cost of import increases, as well as
Bangladeshi goods loose competitiveness in Chinese market. If Bangladesh wants to
access South Chinese underdeveloped market, they must go through India. India plays a
major role in Bangladesh’s trade sector. In 1996, about 25 percent (approximately) of
total imports (both legal and illegal) in Bangladesh came from India. Bangladeshi
products constituted only 0.5 percent (approximately) of total Indian imports. India’s
informal and formal exports to Bangladesh stand at around $5 billion dollars while
Bangladesh’s exports are about $ 358 million during the financial year of 2007-08. It is
quite true that India’s economy is large and there could be a reasonable size of trade
deficit with India. But that is excessive. The economic relationship between Bangladesh
and India has the potential of being mutually beneficial and rewarding. However, at
present the situation is not one of interdependence but of one-sided dependence on the
part of Bangladesh. The large bilateral trade deficit that exists in favor of India needs to
be reduced before this scenario can be changed. So it is expected that providing transit
facilities would also help Bangladesh to improve the BOP situation with India as well as
expanding trade baskets to include more products from Bangladesh. Bangladesh needs to
play a leading role in facilitating connectivity.
1. Introduction:
As development becomes the primary focus, nations attempt to advance their interests
through bilateral regional and international cooperation. Even States that have
traditionally been sovereignty sensitive, at least in terms of integrating themselves
through roads, today, are trying to negotiate multilateral economic arrangements that
include transit and transportation across their national boundaries. Bangladesh, which has
traditionally opposed such an idea on the grounds of sovereignty and security, is slowly
adjusting to this phenomenon. The issue of transit to India has propped up, this time with
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a renewed and very firm demand from India for allowing Indian goods and passenger
transport ingress into, and egress out of Bangladesh, from and into Indian territory. The
request has been lying with the Bangladesh government since mid-2007.
Many in India perceived Bangladesh as an "economic bridge" between India's northeastern states and the rest of the country. For India, it makes extremely good economic
sense to be able to use a corridor to its northeastern states. It would spare them
constructing a long and tortuous road through hostile territory, infested with insurgents of
many hues. It had been estimated -- in the '90s -- that construction of new tracks would
cost Rs. 2 crore per kilometre.
Transit is not only beneficial for India but also for Bangladesh. Insofar as the economic
return is concerned it, too, was an undetermined element in the transit discourse. There
was no gainsaying what would be the economic benefits for Bangladesh, and what
opportunity costs that we might have to count by allowing India the transit facility. As a
burning issue, intellectuals & politicians etc focus transit issue from multidimensional
view points. Some of them emphasis on security & political instability etc. Other
concentrate on sovereignty etc. So there are serious security issues that are associated
with the transit that must be brought into consideration in any future negotiation, and if
there are economic dividends that we can derive that are positively proportional to the
investment, so much the better. This must be made amply clear to India.
For transit deal, the bilateral connectivity between two countries, which requires faithful,
cooperative relation based on past experiences about previous deals, agreements & co
operations etc. Bangladesh has a vast experiences about India’s did, because India is a
neighbor country with largest boarder. Transit has never been a forgotten issue, at least
not for India. But we guess it has become a rather embarrassing matter for Bangladesh -not knowing perhaps how to convey to India that there are other compelling factors that
influence policies. It is futile to compare a similar situation obtaining in other parts of the
world with this. It would be erroneous to see such issues in merely economic terms -- in
any case economics do not drive politics in South Asia, in fact the reverse is true. In this
context, we clarify our knowledge about the concept of transit. It is also necessary to
know our cost-benefit for transit. Security & Sovereignty should be also concentrated.
Finally we decide what should be our benefits over costs to make transit as beneficial for
both
countries.
2. Methodology:
2.1 Concepts:
It is said that the system of trade routes first originated with the nomadic people who
along with their cattle, sheep, assess and goats had often moved from their places in
search of fresh pastures. In course of time, the route was used by the traders as in the
process asses, oxen, horses, yak were tamed and utilized for carrying goods. This was the
beginning of this trade process, which was at first based on barter and exchange and later
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on money. Now-a -days the route has become an important element to fostering
international trade. Based on security, sovereignty as well as involvement of the countries
the rout is commonly known as Transit or Transshipment or corridor . Though these three
words seem to be similar, there is a clear distinction among them. Generally in the
corridor, a country gives some kind of rights or control on the land to the other country
making it a defector of its territory, while in transit there is no question of rights involved
in the land territory allowed for transit. It provides only transit facilities under certain
conditions and can be withdrawn. For example, under the Bangladesh-India 1974 Land
Boundary Agreement, Bangladesh wanted a lease in perpetuity an area of India’s territory
178 meters X 85 meters near Tin Bigha to connect enclave Dahagram with main land of
Bangladesh. The transit for a country is mainly access through a country to the third one.
For example, India has a transit to Afghanistan through Iran. So, Indian goods can board
from Iranian ports and go through to Afghanistan. However, due to geographical
complexity, in this case, the transit refers to connectivity between North-East Indian
seven states with mainland India, especially West Bengal. The goods carried from North
East, comes to mainland India through a strip of Assam and North Bengal, taking a route
miles longer than what could have been a shortest through Bangladesh. Bangladesh govt.
never allowed India to have a transit in return of a hefty transit fee offered by India. The
transit, that could have been a win-win situation, has been refused as a threat to National
security. The other point of interest here could be the transshipment. Here, Transit refers
to the passage across Bangladesh territory of Indian goods to and from the north Eastern
states of India using Indian owned surface transport, while transshipment refers to the
same movement using Bangladesh-owned transport.
2.2 Literature review:
Devid Lewis showed that an often-cited objective of light rail transit is to encourage
formation of neighborhoods with diverse living, work and leisure activities within easy
walking and wheelchair reach. In the Cincinnati, the total value of transit-oriented
development can be approximated as the sum of benefits arising from community
economic development and congestion relief. The benefits of light Rail transits don’t
always exceed the costs, but oftentimes they do. The rail lines economic benefits would
likely exceed costs by almost $800 million over a 30 year period.
Amatya, Raj &Upendra showed that Nepali exporters and importers are the high cost
and time taken in the transportation of goods to and from China. Nepali businessmen do
not have the complete business information about China to establish working relation
with their Chinese counterparts in different cities of China. There is no doubt both India
and China would extend support to build infrastructure in Nepal, if the country could give
some vision of its transit economy. Besides it would attract foreign investment and
promote tourism and revenue as well. Once strategic rivals, India and China have now
turned into business partners and for them the route through Nepal is shorter and reliable.
India has agreed to provide over 5 billion rupees for a project targeting to upgrade border
check posts along the Nepal-India border within the coming three years. India is going to
spend almost 15 billion rupees on her side in setting up link roads along the border;
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which will, without any doubt serve as a good link once China and India will have some
substantial deal to use Nepal as a transit point. The time is ripe that through the vision of
a transit economy, Nepal could lift her position from that of an unstable economy to a
stable one. Nepal wishes to see that upcoming transit routes would serve as a modern
‘Silk Road’ that will connect China with rest of South Asia through Nepal.
Shahedul Anam said that Both Bangladesh and India were connected by road and rail
link up to 1965 is well known. Rail links existed between the two countries prior to
September 6, 1965, and were discontinued after the outbreak of the war between India
and Pakistan. There were three road links connecting India with Bangladesh. National
Highway No. 35 connected Calcutta to Barisal and Bongaon to Dhaka. National Highway
No. 35 connected Petrapole to Barisal, and National Highway No. 40 connected Siliguri
and Guwahati to Chittagong and Dhaka via Comilla. After 1971, both the countries had
expressed political will to utilize the economic complementarities for mutual benefits.
And in the spirit of mutual cooperation, Bangladesh had, in fact, agreed to accord
"transit" facility through the signing of the Indo-Bangladesh Trade Agreement on March
28, 1972, and Bangladesh could, by the same token, use the facility for its own benefit.
The Agreement provided for "mutually beneficial arrangements for the use of their
waterways, railways and roadways for commerce between the two countries and for
passage of goods between two places in one country through the territory of the other.
Many in India perceived Bangladesh as an "economic bridge" between India's northeastern states and the rest of the country. For India, it makes extremely good economic
sense to be able to use a corridor to its northeastern states. It would spare them
constructing a long and tortuous road through hostile territory, infested with
insurgents of many hues. It had been estimated -- in the '90s -- that construction of
new tracks would cost Rs. 2 crore per kilometre. It would cost many times more that
amount now.
The Awami League government, which had in principal approved the proposal (June
1998) for the passage of goods between places in India via Bangladesh -- "provided they
are conveyed by Bangladeshi carriers," had not provided this facility during its
tenure.The 1972 agreement was for one year. A new trade agreement signed on October 4,
1980 had similar proviso for surface connectivity, but that the surface links, except by
river routes, did not come about has to do with everything other than economics.
Ahmed Nizam showed that the Awami League government in 1972 had a one-year
agreement with India for the "use of their waterways, railways, and roadways for
commerce between the two countries and for passage of goods between two places in one
country through the territory of the other." The AL government under Sheikh Hasina in
1996-2001 also agreed to reopen the old Bongaon (India) and Jessore (Bangladesh) broad
gauge railway line closed since the India-Pakistan war in 1965.
Earlier, the Ershad government signed a working agreement in 1990 with India to reopen
the broad gauge. Begum Zia's government in 1993 made transit facilities conditional on
the Farrakhan water issue. In 2006, it again snubbed Indian plea for transit on grounds of
water sharing, national security, and domestic trade protection.
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It is necessary for Bangladeshi people to oppose the vested class favoring protectionism.
However, our politicians, usually, do not have the dedication or the intellectual
conviction to stand up for critical issues such as free trade and transit. Therefore, these
matters are sadly in the hands of planners and schemers who freeze the liberalization
process with complex regulations and extended lobbying to protect their interests. There
are strong claims that India will swamp the Bangladeshi economy by its sheer size, as
many theoreticians predict, and as the market nearly prove today, but one must only look
to the example of Hong Kong, a free exporting and importing country that has been
flourishing next to mainland China for years. Similar free trade system is in Taiwan and
Singapore. They became strong economic powers by keeping their economies open. It is
their liberal economic principles not their size or balanced trade accounts that have kept
their economy healthy and rich.
Rashid wrote that the proposed Asian Highway route provides transit rights to India
through Bangladesh because both the entry and exit are with India from Bangladesh.
Bangladesh government is naturally concerned about it without reciprocal transit rights
from India. It seems that this is a misplaced concern in view of the fact that at the Dhaka
SAARC Summit, India's Prime Minister made it clear that India was agreeable to provide
transit rights to SAARC countries. He proposed: "Let us agree, at this Summit, that all
South Asian countries would provide to each other, reciprocally, transit facilities to third
countries, not connecting one another but also connecting to the larger Asian
neighborhoods, in Gulf, Central Asia and South East Asia".
Obviously the Prime Minister had in his mind not only transit rights within South Asia
but also the road connecting 23 countries through proposed Asian Highway network.
The Daily Star wrote that the main gainer of this whole process would be the people of
North-East of India. Right now, anything produced in that region can not be marketed in
the rest of India, due to the distance from port (Kolkata). From past decade, India is
becoming more dependent on foreign and private investments in growth picture. But, no
company will want to invest in this remote corner of the Northeast, because of the
logistical problems of Sevens Sisters linking in with the rest of India. So the only real
economic future of Northeast lies in reopening its route through Bangladesh to its West
and with Myanmar and South-East Asia to the East. For additional benefit, if they are
allowed to use a Bangladesh port, the export oriented business can also come up in this
region. The region is rich in energy resources, like natural gas and hydro-electricity. The
economic progress in this region can stop a long-standing grievance and insurgency
resulted. The Chittagong port can become a modern busy port like Singapore serving the
SAARC countries and even China. Huge foreign investment may be attracted to
Bangladesh and finally a throbbing service sector like banks, insurance, hotels, rest
houses, petrol pumps etc. may develop around the Tran’s continental roads and railways.
There is an estimate of direct economic gain from transit fees. It ranges from 500 crore
taka to 4,666 crore taka. The last but not the least, is the mutual transit. Bangladesh, in
return, will get a much shorter route to China, which already is its second largest trading
partner. Unfortunately, most of the trading nowadays takes place through sea-route. The
cost of import increases, as well as Bangladeshi goods loose competitiveness in Chinese
market. If Bangladesh wants to access South Chinese underdeveloped market, they must
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go through India. This was a point of concern for the Chinese delegates during Kunming
initiative in 1999, an initiative to link Chinese province of Yunan with Seven Sisters of
India, Myanmar, Thailand and Bangladesh.
3. Proposed transit between Bangladesh & India:
Bangladesh would become the prime route for trafficking heroin to Europe from South
East Asia, if Bangladesh allows transit to India, according to the International Narcotics
Control Board (INCB).In addition to, the geographical nature of Bangladesh, in particular
its long borders with India and Myanmar, would make it particularly suitable for heroin
trafficking,” the INCB adds.
Location:
proposed transit rout between BD & India along with other countries.
The main intention of India for transit is to passage it’s goods and passenger transport
ingress into, and egress out of Bangladesh, from and into Indian territory. Bangladesh as
an "economic bridge" between India's north-eastern states and the rest of the country has
been requested to allow transit since mid-2007. For India, it makes extremely good
economic sense to be able to use a corridor to its northeastern states. India has to across
1200km to passage it’s goods & passengers from it’s mainland to it’s north-eastern states,
which is expensive & time consuming as well as inefficient in economic sense. If
Bangladesh allows transit, India will require to across only 600km to complete same job.
Tracing the significance of transit, India has requested Bangladesh to permit them to use
Highway No: 45, which is from west Bengal to
north-eastern states via Bangladesh. The proposed rout is shown on the above mentioned
map along with other countries.
4. Past experiences about the Indo-Bangla relationship:
In this context, one ought to go back a bit into history to put the matter in perspective to
address the issue more objectively, driven by the head rather than the heart and see if we
Redwan Ahmed, M.S.S, Economics, SUST. Hello: +8801716811466. E-mail:red1eco@yahoo.com.Skypee:red1eco
can put it into purely economic terms. Transit rights through Bangladesh, for India in
particular, have remained a contentious issue since restoration in 1972 of a bilateral trade
and transit protocol, which was suspended by the Pakistan authorities following the IndoPakistan war of 1965. Although the protocol has been renewed by both parties every two
years since 1972, the two countries have not come to an agreement to date regarding the
section on road and rail transit for India through Bangladesh.
1. India was never fair on Karaka issue and water distribution. Bangladesh lacked to
negotiate as a strong peer.
2. India was not fair negotiating boarder issues, now opposing our oil exploration in the
Bay of Bangle.
3. It is a kind of strange situation! Due to lack of jobs and greed, lots of boarder people
are engaged in black marketing from both sides. BSF and BDR are actively connected to
it. Many get killed when their deals go sour. Indian Security Killed 500 Bangladesh in
two years.
4. Policy toward rice and lentils were better than expected, provided some rice below
international price. Many former businessmen hiding money and not importing food
stuffs. I do not know recent Indian rules about food stuff export.
5.India’s policy regarding 3 Biga is negative. With all these issues, we still believe, if we
give Transit to India, we will come out as winner.
Discourses and debates had been going on over the past several decades on India's
request for granting her transit, which is actually corridor facility. The opinions have
been overwhelmingly negative recommending its discussion in parliament after the
national election when it shall have to be debated and decided because the very nature of
the issue concerns the security of this country. They quote Article 145A of our
Constitution which says that all treaties with foreign countries shall be submitted to the
President "who shall cause them to be laid before parliament." Eminent columnists have
even proposed referendum on the transit issue. Amidst a flurry of debates on the issue,
foreign secretary Touhid Hossain said on Tuesday that a decision on providing India with
transit facility is quite unlikely in the official talks in New Delhi. Relations with India
have long been strained for various reasons. Very often the Indian Border Security Force
personnel kill and abduct Bangladeshi poor villagers. BSF men have killed more than 460
Bangladeshis in the past five years. Over these years, neither Awami League nor BNP
decided on it as it involves critical questions of national security and stability. The
Bangladesh foreign secretary was hopeful of positive results relating to economy and
border. He said that Bangladesh would not give any concession regarding transit but
would be willing to discuss strengthening security to tackle the terrorists on both sides of
the border. He also took up issues of reducing trade gap (removal of non-tariff barriers,
duty-free access, exporting more products from Bangladesh) border demarcation in
remaining 6.5kms, unfettered access through Tin Bigha corridor, exchange of enclaves,
and
unsettled
territories.
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There are many other issues for Bangladesh to discuss with India such as Talpatti, land
transit with Nepal, stoppage of push-in, indiscriminate killings of Bangladeshi by Indian
BSF, etc. But by keeping the agenda small, Bangladesh has done well. Meetings with
limited agenda are more effective. The issue of transit to India is highly sensitive as we
may have to go even to referendum and parliamentary discussion to determine the
acceptability by the people. Moreover, the CTG is not competent to take any final
decision on such an issue. It is true that Bangladesh could make adequate progress in
transit issue after signing of the Indo-Bangladesh Trade Agreement on March 28, 1972
which provided for "mutually beneficial arrangements, for the use of their waterways,
railways and roadways for commerce between the two countries and for passage of goods
between two places in one country, through the territory of the other."
Though agreement of October 4, 1980 had similar proviso for surface connectivity as
included in 1972 agreement, successive governments of Bangladesh could provide the
facility due to: (a) very sensitive nature of the matter, (b) taking a decision on an issue
that might be seen as providing special dispensation to India, (c) depriving Bangladesh of
the benefit of access to enclaves like Dahagram and Angorpota on permanent basis, (d)
non-fulfillment of promised sale of half a million tons of rice to Bangladesh, and (e)
permanent
settlement
of
sharing
Ganges
water.
Right from the independence of Bangladesh its people were eager to extend concessions
to Indians. But for certain acts of India they have become suspicious. The worst act was
the Farakka barrage. Bangabandhu's trust in India was not honored properly. We are
suffering from less supply of Ganges water than committed. BSF are killing Bangladeshis
without adequate reasons. Maritime boundaries need to be finalised, issues like Talpatti,
demarcation of 6.5kms borders, stoppage of push-in, and Bangladesh-Nepal and
Bangladesh-Bhutan corridors can be solved without much difficulty. But so long as the
Bangladeshis are skeptical of Indian motives, no Bangladesh government will dare to
solve the transit issue. Thus it is up to India whether it settles the issue the quickly or
allows it to continue to drag on for an indefinite period. In improving the image of India
in Bangladesh it appears to be relevant to point out the role of media in India. It has been
observed that the Indian media is not very friendly toward Bangladesh. Before
concluding this analysis, it would be appropriate to say that the governments of
Bangladesh did not pay due attention in drafting earlier international agreements.
5. Political analysis of the proposed transit:
5.1 Political views:
Though transit is an economic issue, political relation can not be separated from
economic relation. It has been seen that in most case progression has been from close
political relations to the deepening of economic relations. Political relationships that are
not characterized by mistrust or suspicion allow first steps in economic relationship
which would then expand and generate vigorous inter-state economic activities. In that
context, for creating an appropriate political climate, India has to come up with fair and
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just proposals to resolve some of the bilateral issues that affect Bangladesh people with
“bread and butter issues”.
Free trade and transit to India, that politicians do not address. The Awami League
government in 1972 had a one-year agreement with India for the "use of their waterways,
railways, and roadways for commerce between the two countries and for passage of
goods between two places in one country through the territory of the other." The AL
government under Sheikh Hasina in 1996-2001 also agreed to reopen the old Bongaon
(India) and Jessore (Bangladesh) broad gauge railway line closed since the India-Pakistan
war in 1965.
Earlier, the Ershad government signed a working agreement in 1990 with India to reopen
the broad gauge. Begum Zia's government in 1993 made transit facilities conditional on
the Farakka water issue. In 2006, it again snubbed Indian plea for transit on grounds of
water sharing, national security, and domestic trade protection.
Unless ideas are public and openly discussed and debated, it is difficult for any
government or political party to solve national problems in the absence of informed
public opinion.
5.2 Politics of regional connectivity:
Problems of connectivity can largely be attributed to the mistrust and suspicion that has
been characteristic of Indo-Bangladesh relations since 1977. The military rulers
perpetuated anti- India feelings to maintain their regime’s sustainability, resulting in a
steady decline in relations between the two countries; India, which played a significant
role in Bangladesh’s liberation was portrayed as a security threat. A cultivated national
imagery was created by emphasizing ‘motives’ for India’s intervention and
attention was drawn to several incidents, arguing, that India wanted to exploit Bangladesh
economically. Bangladesh has not demonstrated any willingness to have a mutually
beneficial relationship with India. The argument on the issues
of trade and transit centres mainly on the fact that it will benefit India as it will enable it
to connect to its northeastern region. Dhaka’s hostile attitude appears to be bereft of any
logic. The issue of regional connectivity is part of the debate on ‘small state - big state
syndrome,’ where a smaller country tries to hold on to leverage to maximize its
advantage. However, for Bangladesh, this leverage appears to be non-negotiable. The
political divisions within the country run along party lines, making the situation more
complex. However, the current government, which has a large mandate, has shown
willingness to take firm economic decisions. It now needs political vision to overcome
the hurdles by encouraging an informed debate on the issue. Even if this creates a
congenial atmosphere on the trade front, it will open up new vistas in transit issues,
which cannot be divorced from the larger issue of economics. The Awami League (AL)
government assumed power in Dhaka in January 2009. The party is aware that the slogan
in its manifesto promising change will not fructify if it does not take prudent economic
decisions at a time of global recession. Therefore, it becomes pertinent for the country to
integrate itself to the global economy by being part of multilateral arrangements.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the government took the decision to join the Asian
Highway Network and to connect itself to the larger global community. Earlier,
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Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had suggested that signing up to the Asian
Highway would be an economic and political imperative. Joining the route would help
Bangladesh to strengthen its much publicized “Look East” policy and especially its
relations with China.
5.3 Securities:

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


Secularism and civil-military relations are two themes significant for India’s
understanding while handling Bangladeshi politics. All security issues in
Bangladesh are monopolized by the army. ULFA nexus with the army should be
probed further.
Establishing good relations with the Army is in India’s security interest.
Institutionalize army-to-army relations between India and Bangladesh.
Migration and operational help to insurgent groups in Bangladesh are two
important concerns for India and should be tackled systematically.
There is a problem of perception between the two countries. While India
perceives Bangladesh as an infiltrator, and a safe zone for Muslim extremism,
Bangladesh perceives India as a hegemonic, an upper riparian state aggravating
flood management problems in Bangladesh. Also, India is perceived as a safe
haven for Bangladeshi criminals.
A cost benefit analysis in political and economic terms should be made on fencing
of Indian borders as the record shows that fencing has been fairly ineffective in
the past years.
Diplomacy with Bangladesh can at best be effective at people to people level.
Illegal migration related to human trafficking is a significant issue. Trafficking of
women and children has been taken up by BNP earlier, perhaps India could
engage Bangladesh on such issues.
5.4 Sovereignty:
If allowed transit within the country, it will be bringing crocodile through digging a canal.
Once transit is given, Bangladesh will not be in a position to take it back. India is
increasingly becoming powerful. It will kill Bangladeshis with the excuse of being
terrorists or drug -dealers, as US does in Columbia with its puppet government. India also
has super connection with the Super Power US- Israel. India is building war fleets and
torpedoes to keep its growing power from Africa up to Australia in the Indian Ocean.
Without the transit, Bangladesh’s existence is almost threatened but with transit, like the
US-Pak former friendships, and today’s Pakistan, Bangladesh will be a breeding ground
for anti-US- Indian fundamentalism. Never allow transit to India!
5.5 Connectivity vs. security & sovereignty:
Connectivity between the two neighbors is at present restricted to bus services between
Dhaka- Kolkata and Dhaka-Tripura and a train service between Kolkata and Dhaka,
which started on 14 April 2008. Both countries signed the treaty on Inland Water
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Transport in 1972, which has facilitated river water transit. This treaty has been renewed
periodically by both governments. Security and sovereignty issues have been of
paramount concern in Bangladesh’s consideration of India’s proposal for transit
facilities. Although Bangladesh has agreed in principle, as per Article V of the 28 March
1972 agreement, to extend facilities for the use of its ports, roads and railways for the
transportation of goods and passengers to India’s Northeast, there are major stumbling
blocks in its implementation. Analysts have been citing security reasons for denying
India transit or even transshipment facilities. Some Bangladeshi analysts feel that this is
the only tool Bangladesh possesses when negotiating with India. As Bangladesh tries to
keep the advantage it has over other countries in order to emerge as a major connectivity
hub, it will lose its significance. Other options available to India to connect its
northeastern region to the larger world would be difficult but not impossible to
implement.
In the past few years India has been making an effort to establish various road and rail
networks with Myanmar. India has been providing aid to construct the Sittwe port in
Myanmar, which would emerge as a major port for products from the Northeast. It is
trying to construct a road network that would connect the northeastern part of India
to Thailand through Myanmar. Bangladesh’s security concerns are unfounded on
two counts First, in spite of adverse relations with India, Pakistan had granted India transit rights
through the territory of East Pakistan. This was only stopped after the 1965 war.
 Second, Bangladeshi analysts who cite China-India relations, which if
soured would drag Bangladesh into a bilateral conflict, should look at the growing trade
ties between India and China despite unresolved border issues. The politics of transit also
play on semantics. Confusion exists about what a transit facility would
entail. Many believe that transit is synonymous with providing a transport corridor. This
is illustrated by the fact that it would connect Indian territories through Bangladesh. The
BNP was not against the transit facility and in the 2001 elections it showed willingness to
consider this issue. However, many believe that it would benefit India more than it would
benefit Bangladesh.
6.Economic analysis of the proposed transit:
6.1 Economic cost:
India plays a major role in Bangladesh’s trade sector. In 1996, about 25 percent
(approximately) of total imports (both legal and illegal) in Bangladesh came from India.
Bangladeshi products constituted only 0.5 percent (approximately) of total Indian imports.
The economic relationship between Bangladesh and India has the potential of being
mutually beneficial and rewarding. However, at present the situation is not one of
interdependence but of one-sided dependence on the part of Bangladesh. The large
bilateral trade deficit that exists in favor of India needs to be reduced before this scenario
can be changed. Similar to India’s denial of transit facilities to Nepal and Bhutan,
Bangladesh has long denied India overland transit facilities, which would significantly
reduce costs of transporting goods to India’s North Eastern states. However, now that
India has acceded transit to Nepal and Bhutan, it is time to rethink – alongside a number
of other issues – the issue of comprehensive transit for and through other nations as well.
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6.2 Trade deficit:
India’s informal and formal exports to Bangladesh stand at around $5 billion dollars
while Bangladesh’s exports are about $ 358 million during the financial year of 2007-08.
It is quite true that India’s economy is large and there could be a reasonable size of trade
deficit with India. The deficit is so large that people are concerned that India should do
something to reduce the gap. Otherwise it may be perceived by majority of people in
Bangladesh, rightly or wrongly, as “economic exploitation” of Bangladesh by India. Such
perception is not politically healthy for bilateral relations.
6.3 Economic benefit:
"The great rule of conduct for us in regard to foreign nations is, in extending our
commercial relations, to have with them as little political connection as possible."
-- George Washington.
"Transit issues have long been a subject of debate, but we think the issue should be
looked at from a business and economic point of view rather than a political one," Atiur
(governor, Bank of Bangladesh) said at the close of a two-day seminar on regional
integration.” We must consider investment and commerce. The issue can be looked at
positively if our economy benefits by providing transit facilities to our neighbors,".How
can Bangladesh harvest the benefit as the transit point for the upcoming economic
superpower of the world. In economic terms, becoming a transit point would do a lot to
promote economic activities if Bangladesh can add value to the Bangladeshi goods as
well as helping to generate employment.
The gain of Bangladesh can be manifolds.
 How Bangladesh can become a regional transport hub, was described by ADB
Country Director Hua Du in a seminar recently. She mentioned - “You can benefit
tremendously through opening up transit and great opportunities for crossing from
east to west and giving the land-locked neighbors access to the sea“. The
Chittagong port can become a modern busy port like Singapore serving the
SAARC countries and even China. Huge foreign investment may be attracted to
Bangladesh and finally a throbbing service sector like banks, insurance, hotels,
rest houses, petrol pumps etc. may develop around the Trans continental roads
and railways.
 There is an estimate of direct economic gain from transit fees. It ranges from 500
crore taka to 4,666 crore taka.
 The last but not the least, is the mutual transit. Bangladesh, in return, will get a
much shorter route to China, which already is its second largest trading partner.
Unfortunately, most of the trading now-a-days takes place through sea-route. The
cost of import increases, as well as Bangladeshi goods loose competitiveness in
Chinese market. If Bangladesh wants to access South Chinese underdeveloped
market, they must go through India. This was a point of concern for the Chinese
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delegates during Kunming initiative in 1999, an initiative to link Chinese province
of Yunan with Seven Sisters of India, Myanmar, Thailand and Bangladesh. India
needs to balance the security and economic equations with Bangladesh.
The Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade, signed in 1972, should be
revisited. India does not need to negotiate with Bangladesh on these issues.
Implementation of the agreements should be the main focus.
Water issues are the central concern for the Hasina government. India should
focus on this issue. Focus on de-silting and dredging of river waters along with
management of water resources should be the key focus.
Water is one issue that can be jointly taken up by both governments. Joint
management of water resources is therefore extremely important.
Bus services should be made regular and Kolkata-Dhaka-Agartala uninterrupted
bus service should be made operational.
Rail transit should focus on making beneficial rail agreements. Rails are the
biggest strength of the Indian economy. In fact, rail transit can never be effective
unless we modernize Bangladesh’s railways. India should offer a package
including training programmes as Bangladesh railways are keen in cooperating
with India on the issue.
Issue of waster resources should be solved. A main problem is that India
considers the Brahmaputra basin as one, whereas Bangladesh demands that there
should be three different basins of Ganga, Meghna and Brahmaputra. Examine
multilateral solutions. Water problems in Bangladesh are inevitably linked to the
issue of Climate Change.
Instead of taking issues bilaterally, regional focus should be brought in, where
India, Bhutan and Nepal could jointly benefit from the exercise.
7.Transit involves both economics and politics:
Actually transit is not only an economic issue but also a political issue. In this sense, the
government of our country should allow transit wisely. Because once the transit is
allowed to India by Bangladesh, it will not be in a position to take it back. India is
emerging as a powerful economic force, besides its expanding political clout. It is also
building war fleets to maintain its growing presence in the Indian ocean up to Africa.
India needs transit facilities via Bangladesh territories for its own national interests.
Bangladesh will, no doubt, enjoy some economic gains by offering the same. But the
question that comes here is whether transit is only a bilateral economic issue to the
exclusion of the needs for promoting wider regional connectivity. If it is a bilateral issue,
then the focus should also be placed and certainly in no 'secondary' way, on resolving all
other bilateral issues with India. Bangladesh has yet many unresolved bilateral problems
with India and all concerned do know what these are. Without India taking a strong proactive move to resolve such issues through actions and not words, the granting of the
transit will have reasons to fuel suspicions and misunderstanding about India's goals and
objectives. If transit is given unilaterally to India, it will become a politically charged
issue in Bangladesh. It will then tend to encourage here the extremists' of all sorts,
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besides causing others to raise some concern in one way or other. From the Indian
perspectives, it is not difficult for anyone concerned to understand or appreciate the
situation about transit. Without the transit, it will be somewhat difficult to address the
problems, some of which have been getting rougher and tougher for India in eight north
east Indian 'states'. Also these Indian states will then, someway or other, have to depend
on Bangladesh for manufactured goods. But with the transit, India can sell its own
products to the region and, in that event, Bangladesh would lose a potential market. India
does not want to allow Bangladesh land-routes for its trade with and Nepal and Bhutan.
Besides other things, India thinks such a facility to Bangladesh could endanger Indian
security. How then can Bangladesh allow transit facilities to India without considering
other
issues?
Bangladesh would not know what goods India would be sending to the troubled northeast, if the transit is allowed. India could use it to step up its counter-insurgency operation
in its north-east. It could then draw Bangladesh into an uncomfortable situation. In the
process, Bangladesh could become the target of both India and the insurgent groups. It
would
mean
increased
security
problems
for
Bangladesh.
According to officials, on August 20, 2007 New Delhi gave to Dhaka a draft deal on
transit for five years, to cover the movement of passenger and cargo. In the draft, New
Delhi proposed allowing Indian vehicles carrying goods and container cargoes to enter
Bangladesh at Benapole land port for going to the Indian provinces of Meghalaya,
Tripura and Mizoram through the Bangladesh border points of Tamabil, Bibirbazar an
Khagrachhari. Despite mounting pressure from New Delhi, Bangladesh did not allow
India the transit for lack of infrastructure and logistics, absence of in-depth assessment of
possible economic gains from it and its internal security implications.
In its latest proposal, New Delhi tacitly avoided using the word 'transit,' considering
political sensitivity in Bangladesh. Whatever the wording may be, the draft, if finally
endorsed, would de facto mean allowing transit for India, according to informed circles.
In this backdrop, it has to be appreciated by all concerned that 'transit', in the way the
proposal has come from India, is not merely an economic proposition. It has political
implications as well. Furthermore, it is to be noted here that the road infrastructures in
Bangladesh on major sections of the related network are already under strains, not being
in position to ensure smooth flow of traffic, inclusive of passengers and cargo. If 'transit'
is given under such circumstances to India, the Bangladeshi businesses will have to pay a
heavy price for reasons of congestion, jam, delays and other related problems for
transporting their own merchandise within the country, thereby raising their costs of
doing business.
8. The potential damages Bangladesh could suffer:
1. The corridor through Bangladesh could increase Indian Intelligence Service activities
in Bangladesh.
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2. It could lead to spreading of AIDS and could become a potential route for drugtrafficking.
3. The road and ports of Bangladesh could get overcrowded, thus resulting in poor
efficiency in domestic industries.
Keeping in view the benefits, it seems the above mentioned risks are too small, from
economic perspective. But, a country is not made up of its economy only, it has its
political, ideological and popular faces also. To sum up the whole condition, Bangladesh
currently does not allow India the transit because of non-economic reasons.
9. Transit - How India gains out of it:
The main gainer of this whole process would be the people of North-East of India. Right
now, anything produced in that region can not be marketed in the rest of India, due to the
distance from port (Kolkata). From past decade, India is becoming more dependent on
foreign and private investments in growth picture. But, no company will want to invest in
this remote corner of the Northeast, because of the logistical problems of Sevens Sisters
linking in with the rest of India. So the only real economic future of Northeast lies in
reopening its route through Bangladesh to its West and with Myanmar and South-East
Asia to the East. For additional benefit, if they are allowed to use a Bangladesh port, the
export oriented business can also come up in this region. The region is rich in energy
resources, like natural gas and hydro-electricity. The economic progress in this region can
stop a long-standing grievance and insurgency resulted.
10. What should be trade-off for transit:
Giving something to India would never bring the equal back to Bangladesh. Bangladesh
may think about giving Transit facilities to India, if India agrees:
(1) Giving Nepal its 12/14 miles territory for transit facility with Bangladesh
(2) Giving Bangladesh the water (no bullshit anymore)
(3) Resolving the Sitmahals, Talpotti, and other similar issues.
(4) Stop supporting the dalals in Bangladesh.
AND -------now we know who is the real traitor, and want to give India the Transit
facilities without resolving the basic problems that serves the greater interests for
Bangladesh
Country's leading trade experts, economists and businessmen express their views in
support of providing transit facilities to India. The business leaders also suggest carving
out a comprehensive package deal with India, involving all bilateral problems including
water and trade deficit issues while resolving the transit issue. According to the experts, a
country cannot advance while staying isolated from the international community. The
government at a ministry-level bilateral meeting last Friday opposed an Indian proposal
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for transit facility raised by Indian State Minister for Commerce Jairam Ramesh. Some
business leaders, however, foresee negative impacts on local industries from the transit
and favoured it in a controlled manner to earn foreign currency as royalty. Kazi
Khaliquzzaman, president of Bangladesh Economic Association (BEA), extends his
support for giving India transit as "connectivity is a must for the modern one world era".
"We did not sign the Asian Highway [agreement and] we have missed some opportunity
of connectivity," he says. "But the transit deal should be under a package, involving
water, economy and trade issues to force more business and economic relation with the
big neighbour," he adds. Cooperation is a matter of give-and-take and one has to give
something if one demands something from the other, Khaliquzzaman says. To Mir Nasir
Hossain, president of Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry
(FBCC), transit is a very sensitive issue. The government should consider it carefully as
such transit may create negative impact on the local industries. "If transit is given to India,
the existing business interest of Bangladesh with the northeastern states of India will be
hampered. We currently export some toiletries, beverage and food items to these states. If
the government approves a transit, it will make the Indian products cheaper than the
Bangladeshi products [in those states]," Mir Nasir argues. But a package deal involving
all other bilateral and economical issues, including the transit, between the two countries
can be considered as a tool for realising other interests of the country, he says. The
government should first set a modality, linking all bilateral problems under the deal
before going for a transit facility, he adds. The Indian proposal is not a transit facility; it
is a "corridor facility" which is internationally discouraged, Mir Nasir opines. A transit
means connecting two countries through a third country, but India is proposing a link
from one of its states to another via Bangladesh, he explains. Latifur Rahman, president
of Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), says Bangladesh has to
first ensure preferential or duty-free access of its products to India to narrow down the
existing trade deficit before opening a discussion on the transit issue. "The subject can be
discussed in a comprehensive manner together with the entire gamut of trade relations to
come to a mutual solution," Latifur says.
According to Tipu Munshi, president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and
Exporters Association (BGMEA), transit should not be a problem between two
neighbouring countries and Bangladesh can open a transit for India through discussion.
Bangladesh can also discuss with Nepal and other South Asian countries for connecting
each other through transit facility. But the government should weigh its own interest
before allowing a transit, he says. MA Momen, president of Dhaka Chamber of
Commerce and Industry (DCCI), says the country should maintain more caution in
allowing India a transit as Bangladesh is yet to build necessary capacity to handle it. Such
transit can be approved if India includes all bilateral problems under a single package
deal, he says. "When the South Asian nations phase out tariff from their chosen products
transit facilities should naturally follow to make the South Asian Free Trade Agreement
(Safta) fruitful," he adds. Allowing a transit must help increase bilateral trade and the
economy will be vibrant with the enhanced export-import activities between the two
countries, he says.
Bangladesh should give access opportunity to India in economic way, if India gives
access power into herself to Nepal and Bhutan. it will be rational demand for Bangladeshi
that time i think that opposition party and other counter groups will under reality because
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the treaty of interest .Moreover, if India impedes to allow access opportunity to
Bangladesh to communicate and business with Nepal and Bhutan ,it is easy that we will
block our transit .now is question India may have not only economic aspects but also
military perspective on the issue of transit such as to suppress north east extremist
groups .if we see and observe military strategy in south Asia so we can easily realize
outside power do not attack our country .if Bangladesh allow such transit it can be
harmful in national stability and security those are important than economy. when one
country has no security money can not help him or her it is actually subjective
matter .But we should allow where we have maximum opportunity and minimum
opportunity cost .I want to say that Govt is transient but national interest and the profit of
people is always with country. Whether one govt allow such issue that is vulnerable and
long time affect for country ,i think we ought to disallow such sign .we know that govt is
transient but country is forever.issue that is vulnerable and long time affect for country, i
think we ought to disallow such sign .we know that govt is transient but country is
forever.
11. Findings and suggestions:
Why Bangladesh should never allow transit to India. Here are the reasons:
1. India has proven itself as an untrustworthy friend. During the liberation war, while
helping Bangladesh liberation, it secretly built the Farakka dam. “Farakka was
commissioned on permission from Mujib on the condition that it will have test run for
only 40 days. But unfortunately those 40 days is yet to be finished (even after 37 years)
and Bangladesh is getting the pinch of dry rivers. Further 54 other international waters
were stopped by the friend of BAL making barrage/dams/ groins virtually making lower
riparian country Bangladesh’s rivers dry.”
During Mujib time, the Rakkhi Bahini head was made an Indian. The jute head quarter
was transferred to Delhi. With the Mujib -Indira Pact, river demarcation based on the mid
current was made a farce. Bangladesh is losing land. It is now a serious problem. Mujib
was persuaded to hand over the sovereignty of “BERUBARI” in return of “Tin
Bigha.”But Tin Bigha was never returned. A Berline wall was built in Bengal to so-called
stop Bangladeshis cross the border. India jammed the Bangladesh TV. As a matter of
target practice, India regularly kills Bangladeshi joans in the border region. Even before
the investigation, India blames Bangladesh for terrorist actions within its borders.
2. Without the transit, India’s seven non Indian sisters in the North East that now depend
on Bangladesh for manufactured goods, but with transit, India will sell its own product to
the region and Bangladesh will lose.
3. India doesn’t want to allow Bangladesh to have land route with Nepal and Bhutan
which is purely for trade purpose, India shows the excuse that it goes against its territorial
integrity, using the same logic Bangladesh can not allow transit.
4. Financial benefit from transit fees would outweigh its other disadvantages. Bangladesh
would risk destroying its own roads and highways, infect its citizens AIDS. Roads and
highways will be neglected by the chauvinistic Indian traders and military personnel are
passing through Bangladesh’s heartland.
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5. India is an unreliable keeper of promises. It failed to keep up to the signed treaties of
Barubari/ Farakka. India first fix these problems than only trust building will lead to
transit.. RAW fed Indian chauvinistic government will never go for a fair deal because its
sole purpose is to help Bangladesh into a failed state.
6. Transit through Bangladesh will allow India to increase its repression in its occupied
North East. For such repression, Bangladesh suffered in the hand of Pakistan and now as
a peace-loving country, it shouldn’t allow India to increase its repression over its non
Hindi/ largely Asian/ Christian and Buddhist minority people unfortunately made part of
India. At the same time such a deal would make Indian separatists rebels make
Bangladesh a target.
7. Indian treaties are politically motivated. While Mujib signed the Mujib-Indra Treaty 25
year treaty results in the beginning of trade deficit, water shortage, border issues dispute,
and dependence on India resulting in the India friendly Mujib’s unpopularity and within a
short period of time made Bangladesh bankrupt, “the bottomless basket case” and
brought his own death. If the past experience with India is a guide, it is believed that
people in favor of transit to India are the ignorant India- lovers popularly known in
Bangladesh as the “Indian Razakars” who are inviting trouble for Bangladesh. For such
an issue we suggest for a national referendum. If people decide, let it be, if not, never!
12. Conclusion:
Transit should be mutually beneficial for both countries. In this relation India should
come up with sincerity and fairness to resolve the long-standing aforesaid bilateral issues.
There is a view that dealing a single bilateral issue separately with India does not make
sense because all pending issues are inter-linked and affect directly people in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh needs to negotiate on a package of issues with India for settlement. If this is
done, it will be much easier for present government to carry people with her to strengthen
relations with India, such as opening transit for northeastern states of India to Chittagong
port and in cooperating with India on security matters. There is no adequate reason why
bilateral issues cannot be settled with fairness between the two neighboring countries.
Time has come to put behind negative mind-set so that both countries can make progress
and prosperity for peoples of the two countries. India needs Bangladesh as much as
Bangladesh needs India. Having a multilateral transit framework would help the region in
that it would facilitate trade. Transit and communication will not be sufficient to deal
with the issue of connectivity and any such initiative has to be complimented by
facilitation by the customs authorities and by improvements in the road network.
Developing Chittagong, Mongla, Haldia and Kolkata ports would be a major step towards
facilitating trade. The security centric debate on connectivity has made it extremely
difficult for the two countries. Bangladesh needs to take the broader picture into account.
Even though both countries conducted a dry run in February 2000, to see whether
transshipment would solve the issue of transit, it is yet to be implemented. This dry run
demonstrated that transshipment would be economically beneficial to Bangladeshi lorry
drivers as well as to the two countries. Both Bangladesh and India have been trying to
take the initiative in order to improve trade between the two countries. Although the
balance of payments (BOP) is heavily in favor of India, the two countries can try various
means to improve trade. Providing transit facilities would also help Bangladesh to
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improve the BOP situation with India as well as expanding trade baskets to include more
products from Bangladesh. Bangladesh needs to play a leading role in facilitating
connectivity. In fact, this is one area in which Bangladesh can play a greater regional role.
Being the founder country of SAARC, which has paved the way for greater cooperation
within the region, Bangladesh again needs to assume a leadership role. As a burning issue,
intellectuals & politicians etc focus transit issue from multidimensional view points.
Some of them emphasis on security & political instability etc. Other concentrate on
sovereignty etc. So there are serious security issues that are associated with the transit
that must be brought into consideration in any future negotiation, and if there are
economic dividends that we can derive that are positively proportional to the investment,
so much the better. Finally recalling the argument of George Washington (the great rule of
conduct for us in regard to foreign nations is, in extending our commercial relations, to have with them as
little political connection as possible),we conclude that transit would be beneficial if we go
ahead considering aforesaid bilateral issues, security, sovereignty, relative gains & loses
etc.
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presented at the seminar on SAARC and China, Kathmandu: China Study Center, 23
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Ma Jiali, Relations between China And SAARC, A paper presented at the seminar on
Redwan Ahmed, M.S.S, Economics, SUST. Hello: +8801716811466. E-mail:red1eco@yahoo.com.Skypee:red1eco
SAARC and China, Kathmandu: China Study Center, 23 December 2002.
Brigadier General M. Sakhawat Hussain (retired), Security and Cooperation in South
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J.N. Dixit ed., Foreign Affairs: Cross Border Relations", Roli Publication, New Delhi,
2003
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Friendship, Vol. 1., No.1, China Study Center, Kathmandu, March, 2000.
Adhikari Pushpa Raj., Nepal China Relations in a Changed Global Context (1990-2010)
Redwan Ahmed, M.S.S, Economics, SUST. Hello: +8801716811466. E-mail:red1eco@yahoo.com.Skypee:red1eco