Predicted Crankback by statistical measures Raviv Brueller and Ilia Koifman Supervised by Dr. Ofer Hadar Technion, Haifa 32000 Israel abstract - When an ATM node discovers that it cannot continue the set-up of a virtual channel under the requested QoS, it initiates a backtracking procedure called "crankback". A new technique to improve the crankback mechanism is proposed based on statistical measures that are distributed trough the network. Under the proposed scheme, nodes check during the connection admission control procedure the probability that the accumulative parameter, such as delay of a virtual channel will be admitted over the entire designated route. If this is not the case, crankback is initiated even before a certain QoS parameter is exceeded. By using our algorithm it is possible to reduce the set-up time for creating a new connection, and to increase the efficiency of using the network resources. The efficiency of the algorithm is increased for situations of large variability with the probability density function of the delay function at the nodes a long the transmission route. In this paper we focus on the Gaussian distribution. The main advantage of the proposed scheme is that it lowers the set-up delay and the processing and communication load imposed by signaling messages that establish unused portions of VCs. 1. Introduction. ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode) is a connection oriented, cell-based transport service designed to carry a wide variety of applications. As a connection oriented technology, before information is transferred from a source terminal through the ATM network to a destination terminal, a virtual connection has to be set. This connection, generally referred to as virtual channel (VC), assigned for the duration of the connection, is traveled by the cells, belonging to the specific session, on their way from the source to the destination. In addition, ATM guarantees performance requirements of applications by letting them define certain parameters representing the quality of service (QoS) they expect to receive from the network. Therefore, when setting a connection between a source node and a destination node, the ATM needs to find a route that fulfills the requested QoS. When a node finds out that it cannot continue such a set-up process, it initiates a backtracking procedure called “crankback”. In a hierarchical network like the ATM, this node sends a RELEASE message to the last node that has made a routing decision, encouraging it to search an alternate route that would answer the requested QoS. If an alternative route cannot be found, the roll back process continues recursively, and the former node that has made a routing decision, closer to the source, tries to compute an alternate route. One of the objectives the ATM is expected to meet is a very efficient utilization of network resources. Hence, it is desirable to reduce the amount of time consumed during the set-up procedure as well as the load in the network. These improvements can be achieved by realizing as early as possible that a crankback is about to take place. This paper presents a crankback mechanism, which is based on statistic rather than deterministic analysis. The idea is that every node along the designated route advertises statistic information concerning the cost of crossing it. The advertised statistic information is then used in each step of the set-up procedure for deciding whether a crankback is predicted. By invoking the crankback mechanism even before resources have fully been consumed has the important advantage of reducing the crankback overhead. The overhead caused by the set-up includes the delay related to the call set-up and the bandwidth as well as the buffers allocated but not used during the set-up attempt. By reducing the time period that elapses between receipts of a SET-UP (forwarded) and a RELEASE message (backwarded) it is possible to prevent these resources from being wasted. The ATM consists of a hierarchy of subnetworks called domains. These domains advertise only a summary of their internal structure, as proposed by the ATM forum PNNI standard. However, In this paper we try not to restrict ourselves to a specific topology, and therefore we describe the statistic mechanism in a general way, which can easily be implemented in any hierarchy, as discussed in [2]. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: In Section 2 we describe the mechanism for crankback prediction when a single route from source to destination is considered. In Section 3 we show examples of simulations, in which we implemented the algorithm for predicted crankback, bring the results obtained in these simulations, and discuss their significance. In Section 4 we explain how the algorithm for predicted crankback is extended so it can be used when we can choose among multiple routes leading from source to destination. In this section we also present results for simulations, which show the advantages involved in using the scheme we propose, by comparing a technique for set-up based on our idea with a method where crankback is not used. In Section 5 we present our general conclusions and remarks. 2. The Predicted Crankback Mechanism: Single Route Case. In this section we present the statistic crankback mechanism in the case of a single path between source and destination. Every node along the designated route from the source to the destination advertises the probability density function (pdf) for its crossing cost. The pdf statistics parameters can be advertised by the PNNI topology advertisement mechanism. For independent delay pdfs, the end-to-end distribution function can be derived by convolution. The correlation coefficient of traffic on successive network links was calculated in [3]. While some correlation exists, the degree of which seems to be small, and in view of Kleinrock’s assumption developed in [4] the independence assumption appears to be valid in cases where the target connection occupies only a small fraction of the total link capacity. The work in [3] uses the accumulation algorithm in order to compute the end-to end cell transfer delay (CTD). In this section we suggest to use the accumulative CTD function for deriving the crankback probability at each stage of the set-up process. We propose an algorithm that evaluates the probability for reaching the destination, using no more than the specified quota allocated for the set-up of the connection. In what follows we derive the statistical condition for crankback based on the pdf advertised by every node along the route. We consider a route that contains N consequent nodes. The allocated quota for crossing this route, namely , can be determined based on the algorithm introduced in [2]. Using accumulative pdf, we derive the predicted crankback probability at each node along the route. If the calculated probability is higher than some threshold, predicted crankback is invoked. We start by defining the following terms: Pdf (j) - the probability density function advertised by the j'th node along the designated route. This node will be referred to as node j. E(pdf(j)) and VAR(pdf(j)) - the average and variance of the pdf(j). i and VARi are the average and the ?standard deviation of the pdfi . j - The total amount of delay spent for crossing node j. - the threshold probability that according to which we should determine whether or not to invoke predicted crankback. 1 j kj 1 k - the actual accumulative delay from the source of the considered route to the j'th one. Hence, 1 j indicates the quota left for crossing the rest of the route after crossing its j'th node. Based on the independence assumption, the proposed algorithm uses convolution in order to derive at each node the distribution function of the accumulative delay for the rest of the route. To this end, we define for every j, 1 j N pdf 1 N pdf j pdf j 1 pdf N . (1) The method for deciding whether a crankback should be invoked at each node along the path is described in Figure (1). The average value of pdf 1 N in each stage after crossing the j 1' th node is given by: N E pdf 1 N E pdf k . (2) k j The solid line in Figure 1 represents the actual Quota left for crossing the rest of the route, namely 1 j , whereas the dashed line represents the center of the accumulative pdf. The probability, P_fail(j), for consuming more than the remaining quota which would lead to crankback is given by the area bounded by the solid -line and pdf 1 N . Hence, the following holds: P _ fail j pdf j N x dx. 1 j 1 (3) For symmetrical pdf function this probability is larger than 0.5 when the solid-line is located left to the central line. Crankback prediction is invoked before node j is traversed if P _ fail j (4) holds. As discussed later, selecting the right value of has a great impact on the success of the algorithm. Eq. 4 holds for a general distribution function. However, the calculation can be simplified for a Gaussian distribution, in which case the pdf can be derived analytically due to the assumption that the delays in successive links along the route are independent. With this assumption, the variance of the accumulative pdf can be represented as the sum of all variances, namely N VAR pdf j N VAR pdf k . k j (5) By replacing the general pdf in Eq. 4 with the Gaussian distribution function and using Eq. 5 we get: P _ fail j / 1 j 1 x E pdf j N 2 exp 2VAR pdf j N dx 2 VAR pdf j N 1 j 1 1 1 j 1 E pdf j N . 1 2 VAR pdf j N (6) The results for Eq. 6 can be derived from common probabilistic tables of the complementary error function. 1 3 2 N E pdf (1), VAR pdf 1 N j N E pdf ( j), VAR pdf j ... N E pdf ( N ), VAR pdf N N E pdf ( j 1 N , VAR pdf ( j 1 N N N N i , i , i j 1 i j 1 P_fail(j) j D j di i 1 Fig. 1 : Derivation of the probability of predicted crankback at each node. As we approach to the end of the route the probability density function N becomes narrower (since the components convolved are fewer) and the uncertainty about the total delay reduces as well. 4.5 x 10 -3 left quota 4 3.5 3 P pdf(j…N) 2.5 2 1.5 P_fail(j) 1 0.5 0 60 70 80 90 100 Delay 110 120 130 140 Figure 2: Deriving the probability for routing failure from the accumulative pdf. Normal crankback P_fail(j) 1 Threshold 0.8 0.6 crankback gain 0.4 Predicted crankback 0.2 0 0 2 4 Node number j 6 8 10 (a) Predicted crankback is successfully invoked P_fail(j) 1 Threshold 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 2 4 6 Node number j (b) No predicted crankback 8 10 P_fail(j) Threshold False_prediction 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Node number j (c) Predicted crankback is unnecessarily invoked (false prediction). Figure 3: Three typical representative examples for deriving the crankback decision: (a) true predicted crankback (b) true decision for not performing crankback and (c) false predicted crankback. Figure 3 depicts three representative cases: the case where predicted crankback is invoked successfully (a), where predicted crankback is not invoked (b), and where it is unnecessarily invoked (c). In these figures, the calculated value of P_fail(j), is presented as a function of the node’s relative position along the path. The threshold described in Figure 3(a) demonstrates a case of successful predicted crankback that benefits in saving the need to traverse nodes 7 and 8 before the ordinary crankback would have been invoked. Figure 3(b) presents the case where the procedure makes a correct decision not to invoke crankback, because P_fail(j), for j = 1…10 is smaller than the threshold . Finally, Figure 3(c) depicts the case of false prediction (at node 8). The last case describes a scenario where despite the fact that before crossing the 8’Th node the probability of failure exceeds the predefined threshold, a connection could have been established by continuing to traverse the nodes. This kind of false alarms is inherent to this method due to the statistical nature of the process, and we will try to minimize their relative occurrence. Statistical Analysis of the Failure Probability In the last section three representative examples for the possible results obtained from the analysis were presented. It is possible to predict the success of the algorithm by applying a statistical analysis to all the ensemble functions of the random process. The probability of failure as a function of the node along the route can be viewed as a random process and a problem where two possible scenarios can be defined. In this section we calculate the probability of success of our algorithm, as a function of the threshold value. We derive the probability of detection, as a function of the parameters in the problem. We are interested in deriving the probability of error and the probability of success of our algorithm. In any non-trivial hypothesis-testing problem, there is a non-zero probability of making error. In our problem, a “false alarm” occurs when according to the algorithm, we decide to invoke predicted crankback, when in fact, it is unnecessary because eventually, the need to activate normal crankback does not arise. In other words, although the probability of failure exceeds the threshold at some stage, if we continue to traverse the remaining nodes, we would be able to reach the destination, and establish the connection. the total delay of the all route is bellow the allocated delay at that case. The other possible error is a “miss”. This term is used to describe the situation where in a case of normal crankback, there was no earlier decision to invoke the predicted crankback. In general, when designing a binary hypothesis test, one must trade off false alarms and misses. A conservative test may have a very low probability of creating a false alarm (Pfa) but this desirable trait is almost always accompanied by the undesirable trait of a high probability of miss (Pm). Conversely, a test that has a low Pm usually has a high Pa. For any threshold value , Pfa and Pm are given by: 1 p fa pdf real _ crank x dx 2 Th p miss Th 1 pdf no _ crank x dx 2 Analytical Results and Random Process Analysis: In this section we present the derivation of an analytical calculation for the probability of detection. The idea behind this analysis is the following: We will use the Gaussian distribution for representing the delay function at each node. In this case there is an analytical solution for the probability of failure, which can be expressed by: P _ fail j x E pdf j N 2 exp 2VAR pdf j N 2 VAR pdf j N 1 j 1 1 1 j 1 E pdf j N . 1 2 VAR pdf j N 2 x N j Pcrank j exp 2VARN j i T 2 VARN j j 1 Q E N K i T j 1 N j 2 erfc 2 VARN j 2 VARN K 2 dx R f y VARN K VARK 2 1 1 R R exp , 2 2 2 8 0 1 The last approximation given is correct for cases of small area under the Gaussian distribution function. It can be shown that there is a fair agreement between the analytical results and the numerical results. One of the reasons for using the Gaussian distribution is the central limit theorem imbues the Gaussian distribution with special significance in the probability theory. Loosely stated, it holds that an appropriately normalized sum of independent random variables has a distribution tending to the Gaussian distribution, as the number of summed variables becomes large. In simulations Pcrank_1 the value of the probability of cranking back, obviously depends on the quota that was allocated for crossing the route. For the simulation related to proceeding figures, Pcrank_1 is equal to 0.5 at the first node, and this is due to the fact that the poll-line and the central point of the accumulative pdf function are coincident at the this node. The value of 0.5 is actually the lower value for the threshold in this case because the uncertainty about the crankback gets its maximum value at the first node. In general, we can say that the threshold should be higher than the value of Pcrank_1 and smaller than 1. Figure (8) illustrates it. We can define two PDF’s, describing the histograms of the attempts to establish a connection: one representing the attempts in which a predicted crankback was invoked, and one representing the attempts in which a predicted crankback was not invoked. We observe that as we approach the end of the designated route, these PDFs are becoming more separable. As a result it is easier to distinguish between them, and predict the way in which such an attempt would end up. Therefore, the performance of the algorithm improves, meaning a higher probability of detection (Pd) and a smaller probability of false alarm (Pfa) and miss detection (Pmiss). On the other hand, as the decision for predicted crankback is invoked in a node that is close to the destination, the gain from prediction crankback is reduced. The corresponding histograms are plotted in figure (). It is expected to see that as the probability density function for the delay is wider the gain from the statistical prediction is increased. Probability density function (pdf) 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 S (a) The two pdf’s functions, pdfcrancback and pdfuncranckback at node No. 4 0.9 0.8 Probability density function (pdf) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 pdfuncranckback Pdf cranckback 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 S (b) The two pdf’s functions, pdfcrancback and pdfuncranckback at node No. 8 Figure 4: Two examples of ensemble functions representing the probabilities of failure in a route that consists of 10 nodes. Threshold pdf uncrancback pdf crancback Pd Pmiss Pfa Fig. 5: Deriving the following probabilities: probability of detection (Pd), probability of false alarm (Pfa) and probability of miss detection (Pmiss). Average node for predicted cranckback Average node for normal cranckback 1 Probability 0.9 Pd 0.8 Pmiss 0.7 Average gain= 4.25 nodes 0.6 0.5 0.4 Pfa 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Node number Fig. 7: The probability results as function of the node number 9 8 7 Number of nodes gains 6 5 4 3 2 0.5 0.6 0.7 Threshold () 0.8 0.9 1 Fig. 8: The number of gained nodes as function of the threshold value () – an example. Single Route Case Simulations We have conducted an experiment simulation, which consists of 10 nodes, each with the same type of delay distribution function. We focused our attention on the Gaussian distribution. For the Gaussian distributions, the average delay at each node was randomly and uniformly selected between the values of 100 and 200 delay units, and the variance of the delay at each node was selected uniformly in the range between 30 and 40. The additive metric in our simulation is the delay, and the allocated quota for crossing the route is also a parameter that has a great influence on the results of the simulations. Naturally, as the amount of quota increases, the probability of invoking crankback decreases due to the fact that we allow “wasting” more delay a long the designated route. We started our simulations allocating 1400 time units, and then examined how the results change as we reduce the allocated time quota to 1300, 1200, 1100 and 1000 time units. The thresholds for predicted crankback invocation we imposed were of two kinds: constant thresholds and variable thresholds. In contrast to a constant threshold, where the threshold is the same for each node along the route, a variable threshold is generally not the same for different nodes. The constant thresholds we examined were 0.81, 0.82, 0.83 and 0.84. As variable thresholds we chose to examine decaying thresholds. The motivation for this decision was the observation that as we approach the end of the route it is easier to estimate if a set-up attempt would end successfully or not. The variable thresholds we imposed lie between the values of 0.84 (At the first node) and 0.81 (At the last node along the route). In each run we computed the average number of nodes that crossing them was saved and examined how this number was affected by replacing the initial parameters. Due to early detection of the need to crank back, the average number of nodes that we cross before cranking back, in case that the crankback is regarded as a false alarm, the percentage of attempts which were declared as “false alarms”. Single Route Case Simulations Results The results of the simulations are shown in Tables 1(a)-(d). Mean Saved Mean Unused Transitions Transitions Const: 0.79 2.87 1.02 Const: 0.80 2.73 1.10 Const: 0.81 2.34 1.28 Const: 0.82 1.92 1.45 Const: 0.83 1.76 1.73 Const: 0.84 1.42 2.05 Dyn: Dec1 2.86 0.91 Dyn: Dec2 2.32 1.21 Dyn: Dec3 2.40 1.21 (a) Allocated time quota: 1400 time units Mean Saved Mean Unused Transitions Transitions Const: 0.79 5.33 0.37 Const: 0.80 5.12 0.38 Const: 0.81 4.43 0.39 Const: 0.82 4.03 0.43 Const: 0.83 3.5 0.56 Const: 0.84 2.51 0.72 Dyn: Dec1 4.51 0.68 Dyn: Dec2 3.95 0.68 Dyn: Dec3 5.20 0.63 (b) Allocated time quota: 1300 time units Mean Saved Mean Unused Transitions Transitions Const: 0.79 7.32 0.06 Const: 0.80 7.21 0.10 Const: 0.81 7.02 0.14 Const: 0.82 6.71 0.28 Const: 0.83 5.63 0.30 Const: 0.84 4.76 0.36 Dyn: Dec1 6.76 0.49 Dyn: Dec2 6.76 0.52 Dyn: Dec3 7.02 0.43 (c) Allocated time quota: 1200 time units Mean Saved Mean Unused Transitions Transitions Const: 0.79 7.91 0.02 Const: 0.80 7.85 0.04 Const: 0.81 7.69 0.05 Const: 0.82 7.35 0.10 Const: 0.83 6.45 0.11 Const: 0.84 6.34 0.13 Dyn: Dec1 7.37 0.06 Dyn: Dec2 7.45 0.07 Dyn: Dec3 7.52 0.06 (d) Allocated time quota: 1100 time units Table 1: The results obtained for allocated for different time quotas. The dynamic thresholds used are: Dec1 = [0.84,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.81] Dec2 = [0.83,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.81] Dec3 = [0.82,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.81] Analysis of the Single Route Case Coming to analyze the results, an important conclusion, which arises, is concerned with the threshold that can be imposed. As the threshold value decreases, the probability of true detection is increased for all nodes, making it is possible to gain more benefits, by deciding on crankback earlier and though saving more unnecessary nodes to cross. However, decreasing the threshold causes more false predictions. As we can notice, the average number of saved nodes is increased, as well as the number of nodes, which have been traversed, but crossing them did not yield any benefit, due to false alarm. Hence, there a tradeoff between early detection of true crankback and increasing the probability of false prediction exists. The thresholds we used around the value of 0.8 were shown to be a good compromise between the competing goals of increasing the probability of true detection and lowering the value of false detection. In this context, we can see that the idea of using decaying thresholds proved itself, especially when the amount of time allocated for the set-up is relative small. In general, we can say that the advantages obtained by using our algorithm become more noticeable in cases where the uncertainty about the delay in each node increases, and as the time quota becomes smaller. As we can deduce, when the amount of time allocated for the set-up of the connection should almost certainly suffice for establishing a connection, the need for predicted crankback becomes negligible. When the amount of time that is allocated for establishing the connection is not very large, our algorithm proves to be efficient in foreseeing that the need for crankback would arise. 4. The Predicted Crankbak Mechanism: Multi Route Case. In this section we describe how the algorithm for crankback prediction based on statistical measures is extended when there are a few possible routes between the source node and the destination node. We assume the existance of more than one path from the source to the destination. The different routes are mutual exclusive. This means that we should choose the route in which we will try to set up the connection in an optimal way. Once we chose a specific route we start travelling it. After crossing each node, a decision whether to proceed in this route towards the destination or crank back to the source is neccessary. A crankback should be activated when the current route is no longer optimal. In this case, after cranking back to the source node, we should start traverse the new optimal route. We present here a general algorithm for the multi-route case. The algorithm was developed as a generalization to the case of a single route, and is illustrated in fig (). We assume the existance of m possible routes {1 , 2 ,..., m } . The nodes belonging to route i are denoted by v1i , v2i ,..., vni i . As in the single route case, every node advertises the pdf for its crossing cost in terms of delay. As before, the statistics can be advertised by the PNNI topology advertisement mechanism, and we use them in the algorithm during the set up procedure to determine the actions to be performed. We denote the following terms: pdf (v ij ) - the probability density functionadvertised by the j’th node on the i’th optional route. i ( j ) - the total amount of delay spent for crossing node j at the (currently processed) route i. i ( j ) - the cost of the set-up “rolling back”, if the crankback was performed at the j’th node on the i’th optional route. ' - time, allocated for the VC set-up. - time slot, available at the current moment, to finish the VC set-up. U (t ) - specified utility function, which represents the desirability of the successful VC set-up exactly by the time t. Definition 1 Denote the expected utility of successful crossing nodes v1 ...vn within the time slot t by: t EU t (v1 ...v n ) pdf (v ...v 1 n )( x) U ( x)dx For a utility function, which is a hard-deadline, boolean step function, which represents only outcomes of success or failure, with a deadline T, the utility function can be expressed as: min( t ,T ) EU t (v1 ,..., v n ) pdf (v ,..., v 1 n )( x)dx Definition 2 Given a set of m possible routes R = {1 , 2 ,..., m } , denote by the route i R s.t. t j i t ' t ( pdf (v1i ,..., vni i )(t ) 0 pdf (v1j ,..., vnj j )(t ' ) 0) The convolution pdf(x) of the route will be denoted by pdf (x). Informally, is the route with the smallest lower bound on the pdf function. The algorithm for crankback prediction in face of multiple routes receives as input the Optional routes R = {1 , 2 ,..., m } from source to destination, and its objective is a VC set-up with statistically minimal delay. The steps that describe the algorithm can be summarized as shown in Fig.9: Algorithm Crankback Input: Optional routes R = {1 , 2 ,..., m } from source to destination; Multi-Route Case Simulations Available time slot ' . Output: VC setup with statistically minimal delay. 1. Initiate the remain time slot '. 2. Delete from R all routes, pdf’s of which have no overlap with pdf in (, ). 3. Choose the route k max EU T ( v1i ,..., vni i ) (R ). 4. Start from the beginning: j=1; while (v kj destination) and ( 0) . 5. Cross the node v kj and update the remain time slot k ( j )1 . 6. Delete from R each route i , s.t. EU k ( j ) (v1i ,..., vni i ) 0 . 7. Choose the route l max EU i i k ( j ) ( v1 ,..., vni ) ( R \ k ) . if EUT (v kj1 ,..., vnk1 ) EU k ( j ) (v1l ,.., vnl l ) then 8. Continue with the current route: j++. else 9. Roll back to the source node and update the remain time: k ( j ) . 10. Switch to the chosen alternative path: k=l. 11. Start from the beginning: j=1. if v kj destination) then return VC i . return set-up fail. Fig. 9: Crankback Algorithm Let us consider a topology of 10 possible routes between the source and the destination. Each route consists of 10 nodes. Each node has a Gaussian pdf representing the delay needed to cross it. The pdf has a mean selected uniformly between 100 and 200 time units, and a variance, which is selected at random between the values of 20 and 40. For each connection set-up an initial time quota is allocated. When crossing each node, a value is randomly selected, according to the node’s pdf, to represent the amount of time units needed for crossing the node. When cranking backwards to the source node, a very small amount of time (one time unit in our simulations) is required to cross any node. This choice we made here represents the fact that in real networks, the cost of crossing a node in a direction opposite to that of the set-up is usually negligible. The implementation of the multi-route algorithm in this case simplifies to a scheme involvnig the following steps: 1. Derive the end-to-end crossing time pdf for each route, by convoluting the pdfs of the nodes along the route. 2. Calculate the probability of failure in the connection set-up for each route,, according to its end-to-end pdf, as in the single route case. 3. Choose the route with the smallest probability of failure, and cross its first node, and reduce the amount of time needed to cross that node from the initial time quota. 4. Calculate the optimal route according to the probability of failure in travelling towards the destination. All routes should be examined, while taking in consideration the time needed to roll back to the source. Check if the current route is still optimal. If it still is, cross its next node, and reduce the time needed for crossing the node from the current time quota. If it became suboptimal, crankback to the source node, cross the first node in the new optimal route, and reduce the time needed for crossing this node. 5. Repeat Step 4 until either the destination is reached, in which case the set-up procedure has succeeded, or the time quota has fully been consumed, in which case the attempt to set up a connection ended in a failure/failed. In contrast to the single-route case, here there is no need to choose a threshold, since the routes are compared against each other. In order to evaluate the benefits achieved by using this method, we compared the results obtained in this way with the results achieved by applying a scheme, in which after calculating the a-priori optimal route (As in the beginning of the proposed algorithm) we traverse this route, no matter what the delays selected in the nodes along the route are, until the destination is reached, or the time quota is fully consumed. With this approach there is a relative large chance of traversing a suboptimal route, and the crankback procedure will not be activated. To compare between these two approaches, we applied both of them in the same situations: same nodes’ pdfs and same initial quota. We examined the ratio of the attempts to establish a connection, which ended successfully to the total number of attempts. We further checked the average amount of time needed to complete the establishment of the connection, in both methods. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations were done. Multi Route Case Simulations Results The results of the simulations are shown in Table 2: Crankback No-Crankback Crankback: No Crankback: Mechanism Mechanism Mean Time Mean Time Success Ratio Used for Set-up Used for Set-up Success Ratio Quota=1500 1 0.57 1329.9 1370.4 Quota=1400 1 0.52 1240.1 1286.7 Quota=1300 1 0.45 1219.3 1236.8 Quota=1200 1 0.4 1145.7 1170.8 Quota=1100 1 0.3 1132.4 1156.2 Table 2: Multi Route case results Multi Route Case Analysis As we can clearly see in the results presented in table [], the algorithm we implemented achieved good results. Even when a quota of 1500 time units, which is the mean of the end-to-end pdf is allocated, our algorithm achieves much better results as compared to the algorithm where no crankback is activated. Furthermore, when a smaller amount of time is allocated for the set-up procedure, the advantage of our algorithm can clearly be seen, as it ranks in performance above the method of no cranking back: The rate of success in establishing a connection, when our algorithm for crankback is implemented, is significantly higher that the corresponding rate where the predicted crankback procedure is not implemented. Final Conclusions and Remarks: We have introduced a new scheme for improving the crankback mechanism in ATM networks. Our algorithm is based on statistical measures for invoking an early crankback, prior to crossing the limits of network resources, but in a situation in which we can predict that the resources are going to fully be consumed with a relative small chance for completing the connection’s establishment. In this paper we focus on an accumulative measure, which is the end-to-end delay. The decision for crankback is made on the basis of hop by hop decision: in each stage the probability of failure is derived and and tested against a predefined threshold, provided that only the travelled route is a possible route for a set-up, or against the probabilities of failures of other possible paths, in face of multiple routes. This comparison is needed in order to determine whether a crankback should be activated. We have shown various numerical, as well as analytical results. The simulations we ran show a significant improvement as compared to the ordinary approach, especially when the resources are limited, in which case the amount of time allocated for establishment of the connection is quite small. The methods based on statistical measures, which we implemented, are found to be most fruitful in preventing waste of network’s resources. In particular, this kind of research can be helpful for improving the network utilization during the set-up connection in ATM networks. 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