Housing Croydon Our strategy to 2015 Evidence Base Evidence base to April 2011 Evidence Base About the evidence base Evidence base to April 2011 The evidence base sets out data and information to support the development of the council’s housing strategy. It was written by David Morris, John Montes and Julia Pitt in the council’s Housing Strategy Team. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the following people for their contribution to the evidence base: Elaine Wadsworth Lesley Goodwin Lesley Roman Shayne Coulter Sharron Smail Rebecca Clews Judy Pevan Corrine Masters Steve Morton Ola Ogundare Dominick Mennie Leigh Herington Alan Hiscutt Nigel Vangrove Warren Gilbank Deborah Burrows Beverley Nomafo Ian Stone Fiona Lobo Adam Ranger -2- Evidence base to April 2011 Contents: About the evidence base ....................................................................................... 7 Legislation .................................................................................................................. 8 Policy .......................................................................................................................... 9 Guidance and best practice ..................................................................................... 10 We are Croydon – the vision 2040........................................................................... 11 Supporting strategies and plans .............................................................................. 12 Assessing housing need across all tenures ............................................................13 Demographic drivers of housing need ..................................................................13 Population increase ................................................................................................. 13 Household formation ............................................................................................... 15 Age structure............................................................................................................ 17 Black and minority ethnic population ...................................................................... 19 Gypsies and travellers .............................................................................................. 21 Disabled people ....................................................................................................... 21 Housing affordability ...........................................................................................23 House prices ............................................................................................................. 23 Entry level house prices ........................................................................................... 24 Rents ........................................................................................................................ 25 Local housing allowance ...................................................................................... 26 Private rent – London Rents Map ........................................................................ 27 Local authority rent.............................................................................................. 27 Housing association rent...................................................................................... 27 Repossession ............................................................................................................ 28 Mortgage repossessions ...................................................................................... 28 Landlord possessions ........................................................................................... 29 Affordability ............................................................................................................. 30 Affordability of market housing for purchase ..................................................... 30 Affordability of market housing for rent ............................................................. 31 Croydon’s economy ................................................................................................. 31 Employment ......................................................................................................... 32 Occupations ......................................................................................................... 33 Qualifications ....................................................................................................... 34 Earnings ................................................................................................................ 34 Housing needs assessment ...................................................................................... 35 LHMA housing requirement..................................................................................... 37 Key issues: the demographic drivers of housing need ............................................ 37 Key issues: housing affordability.............................................................................. 38 BUILDINGS AND PLACES .......................................................................................40 1. Optimising the supply of new housing ..........................................................40 Housing stock ........................................................................................................... 40 Housing tenure......................................................................................................... 41 Social rented housing ............................................................................................... 41 The impact of the right to buy on social housing .................................................... 42 Spatial distribution of social housing ....................................................................... 43 Private rented housing ............................................................................................. 44 Housing development - all tenures .......................................................................... 44 Housing development in Croydon ........................................................................... 45 -3- Evidence base to April 2011 New housing completions in Croydon ..................................................................... 45 New housing starts in Croydon ................................................................................ 45 Affordable housing delivery ..................................................................................... 46 Empty homes ........................................................................................................... 46 Future housing requirement ................................................................................ 47 What is our land capacity for housing development? ......................................... 48 Infrastructure – making great places ....................................................................49 The learning city ................................................................................................... 49 The enterprising city programme ........................................................................ 50 A creative city....................................................................................................... 50 Connected city programme ................................................................................. 51 Sustainable city programme ................................................................................ 51 Key Issues – Housing stock and tenure ................................................................ 52 Key issues: housing supply ................................................................................... 52 2. Maintaining and improving our existing housing ...........................................53 Decent homes .......................................................................................................... 55 Council housing .................................................................................................... 55 The council’s housing investment programme.................................................... 56 Housing association housing ................................................................................ 56 Private sector housing ......................................................................................... 56 Private sector renewal ............................................................................................. 59 Energy efficiency ...................................................................................................... 59 Fuel poverty ............................................................................................................. 61 HMOs ....................................................................................................................... 64 Housing and health .................................................................................................. 64 Key issues: housing condition............................................................................... 65 3. Customer-focussed housing advice and options ............................................67 Rough sleeping ......................................................................................................... 68 Homelessness........................................................................................................... 68 Homelessness prevention .................................................................................... 68 Homeless decisions and acceptances .................................................................. 68 Reasons for homelessness ................................................................................... 69 Housing waiting list .................................................................................................. 71 Overcrowding and under-occupation .................................................................. 72 Availability and need for housing for older people ................................................. 73 Housing supply ......................................................................................................... 74 Key issues: housing need ...................................................................................... 75 4. Achieving independence through housing support ........................................78 Housing related support .......................................................................................... 78 Move on ............................................................................................................... 81 Transformation in adult social care ..................................................................... 81 Home adaptations.................................................................................................... 82 Help with repairs, adaptations and maintenance ............................................... 84 Impact and fit with modern social care practice ..................................................... 84 Key issues: housing support ................................................................................. 85 5. Managing and sustaining great places to live ................................................86 Community safety .................................................................................................... 86 Community engagement ......................................................................................... 89 -4- Evidence base to April 2011 Community cohesion ........................................................................................... 89 Tenant satisfaction ............................................................................................... 89 Health and wellbeing ............................................................................................... 90 Deprivation and worklessness ................................................................................. 92 Vulnerable people and deprivation ......................................................................... 92 Children and young people ...................................................................................... 93 Housing management service – the key figures ...................................................... 93 Key issues: ................................................................................................................ 98 6. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................99 Figures: Figure 1: Contributors to population change – Croydon 2006-2010 .......................... 14 Figure 2: Population age profile – London and Croydon (census 2001)...................... 17 Figure 3: Average house prices and sales volumes 1996 to 2011 (Land Registry) ..... 24 Figure 4: Local Authority Rents 2001-2011 (£) ............................................................ 27 Figure 5: Housing Association Rents 2000-2010 ......................................................... 28 Figure 6: Mortgage Possession Actions - England & Wales, 1990 to 2011 Qtr1 ......... 29 Figure 7: Landlord Possession Actions – England & Wales, 1999 to 2011 Qtr1 .......... 30 Figure 8: CACI PayCheck 2008 household income distribution – Croydon ................. 35 Figure 9: Council housing stock and right to buy sales 2000 to 2011 ........................ 43 Figure 10: Social housing distribution in Croydon (Census) ....................................... 43 Figure 11: Housebuilding England 1946-2010 ............................................................ 44 Figure 12: Distribution of long-term empty homes, 2010 .......................................... 47 Figure 13: the location of future housing development in Croydon ........................... 49 Figure 14: Percentage of non-decent homes .............................................................. 55 Figure 15: Non-decent private sector homes as a percentage of all dwellings .......... 58 Figure 16: Private sector renewal assistance 2007-2011 ............................................ 59 Figure 17: Fuel Poverty in private sector dwellings – Croydon Wards (BRE study 2008) ............................................................................................................................ 62 Figure 18: Fuel poverty among vulnerable households ............................................. 63 Figure 19: Average NI 187 values for Croydon by tenure 2008/09 and 2009/10 ...... 64 Figure 20: Links between housing conditions and public health................................. 65 Figure 21: Housing need in Croydon 2004/05 to 2010/11 .......................................... 74 Figure 22: Housing supply in Croydon 2004/05 to 2010/11 ........................................ 75 Figure 23: Demand for telecare ................................................................................... 82 Figure 24: All age, all cause mortality rates, Croydon LSOA 2002-2007 ..................... 91 Figure 25: IMD 2004 and 2007, Croydon .................................................................... 92 Tables: Table 1: Census 2001 population for England, London and Croydon ........................ 14 Table 2: ONS Sub-national population projections 2008-based ................................. 15 Table 3: GLA London Plan: Borough Demographic Projections - Update 01-2010 .... 15 Table 4: Census 2001 Croydon – Household types (ONS) ........................................... 16 Table 5: Household projections to 2016 (ONS) ........................................................... 16 Table 6: London household projections (thousands) (GLA) ........................................ 16 Table 7: Croydon population projections by age to 2016 and 2026 (ONS) ................. 18 Table 8: Croydon BME population projections to 2031 (GLA)..................................... 20 -5- Evidence base to April 2011 Table 9: Estimates for the Shortfall in Croydon Supply of Wheelchair Homes in the Public and Private Sectors by April 2011. .................................................................... 23 Table 10: Average (median) house prices 2001-2011 (Land Registry) ........................ 23 Table 11: Lower quartile house prices 2000-2011 (CLG Live Tables 582 and 583) ..... 24 Table 12: Ratio of lower quartile earnings to lower quartile house prices (CLG) ....... 25 Table 13: Croydon minimum and average house prices 2011 (2002 in brackets) ...... 25 Table 14: English Housing Survey 2009-10 (Full household sample) .......................... 26 Table 15: Outer London LHA rates, April 2011 (VOA).................................................. 26 Table 16: Croydon rent levels, September 2011 (GLA)............................................... 27 Table 17: Minimum household income required to purchase an entry level property (2011) ........................................................................................................................... 30 Table 18: London Rents Map September 2011 - annual income required ................. 31 Table 19: Resident Labour Force Projections (GLA).................................................... 32 Table 20: Economically active people in Croydon 2010/11......................................... 33 Table 21: Economically inactive people wanting a job 2004-2011 (NOMIS)............... 33 Table 22: Croydon Employment Sectors 2010/11 (ONS)............................................. 33 Table 23: Qualifications 2010 (ONS) ............................................................................ 34 Table 24: Croydon and London median and lower quartile full time earnings 20042010 ............................................................................................................................. 34 Table 25: Housing requirement – Croydon 2009 to 2031 .......................................... 37 Table 26: Housing tenure (Census) .............................................................................. 41 Table 27: Croydon dwelling stock (HSSA) .................................................................... 42 Table 28: Net additions to the dwelling stock ............................................................. 45 Table 29: House building - New dwellings completed 2004/5 to 2010/11 ................. 45 Table 30: House building - New dwellings started 2004/5 to 2010/11 ....................... 46 Table 31: Affordable housing completions 2006-2011 ............................................... 46 Table 32: Housing requirement – Croydon 2009 to 2031 .......................................... 47 Table 33: Decent Homes – Croydon 2011 ................................................................... 56 Table 34: Decent Homes – expenditure to make all dwellings decent (2011) ............ 56 Table 35: Housing conditions: reasons for failing decent homes, England, 2008 ....... 57 Table 36: Fuel Poverty by Tenure (BRE 2008).............................................................. 63 Table 37: Homelessness decisions and acceptances, 2002 to 2010............................ 68 Table 38: Housing register, April 2006, April 2010 and April 2011 ............................. 71 Table 39: Urgent housing need .................................................................................... 75 Table 40: Supporting People client groups – estimates of populations at risk and populations in need ..................................................................................................... 79 Table 41: Placements in residential and nursing care versus people assisted through community-based services, 2007/08 to 2009/10 ........................................................ 82 Table 42: Predicted population of older people and people with disabilities, Croydon, 2010, 2015 and 2020 ................................................................................................... 83 Table 43: Placements in residential and nursing care versus people assisted through community-based services, 2007/08 to 2010/11 ........................................................ 84 Table 44: Percentage change in no. offences 1999-2011 - Croydon ........................... 87 Table 45: Offences – Croydon (Met Police Crime Figures) .......................................... 87 -6- Evidence base to April 2011 ABOUT THE EVIDENCE BASE A local authority is required by statute1 to produce a housing strategy setting out its plans for housing and housing services in the area. This document sets the key issues and challenges for Croydon’s housing strategy over the next five years. It looks at the development of housing policy, how this has shaped the context in which we operate and the likely policy landscape we will face in the short to medium term. It draws on a range of data and information, taken from national and local sources and anticipates future trends in housing need so that we can incorporate in our strategy a set of responses to address those needs. To present a consistent set of information the evidence base is referenced, as far as possible, to 1st April 2011, the end of the financial year 2010/11. We will update the evidence base annually providing detail on the events or policies that have had a significant impact on the data or any of the key issues. Our consultation on the housing strategy includes a consideration of the information in the evidence base, to ensure that we have gathered the right information, drawn the correct conclusions, and given sufficient weight to the issues highlighted. As far as possible, therefore, we have attempted to set out the information in some detail in order to allow scrutiny and challenge. Data sources are referenced throughout the document. A central source of information about the need for housing is the local housing market assessment, undertaken on the council’s behalf by Opinion Research Services and based on a range of available secondary data. The methodology for the assessment closely followed guidance from the department for Communities and Local Government and the full report can be found at the following link: http://www.croydon.gov.uk/contents/departments/planningandregeneration/pdf/9 12686/917223/localhousingmarketassessment. The findings are fundamental to the plans set out in our local development framework core strategy for a major housing-led regeneration programme in the borough which will take place over the next 20 years. The information arising from the assessment has been supplemented with local information taken from our housing waiting list which, although not intended as a comprehensive measure of need, nevertheless tells us much about the people who are currently experiencing need and, importantly, about the people to whom the council has statutory duties to assist under housing legislation. Of prime importance in assessing the need for housing in the future are demographic trends – changes in the number of people and households, and in household size and type. We have relied heavily on Greater London Authority population projections but, of course, some time has elapsed since the 2001 census and a review of demographic trends will be needed following the publication of 2011 census data. It is also a time of great change – recent economic recession, plans to reduce 1 Section 87 of the Local Government Act 2003. -7- Evidence base to April 2011 government debt and restrictions to lending have had a significant impact on the housing market and the economic and housing circumstances of local communities. The coalition government is pushing ahead with new housing policies and these too will affect both housing demand and supply. Regular monitoring of the impact of these developments, in particular through changes in housing need presenting itself to the council and its partners, will be vital in helping us to review and update the housing strategy and in ensuring that we continue to respond comprehensively, sensitively and fairly to local people. The evidence base is set out as follows: The evidence base first looks at housing need and sets out the main findings of the council’s local housing market assessment Section 1 then optimising the supply of new housing in Croydon summaries our plans for the delivery of the infrastructure required to support the level of growth envisaged. Section 2 looks at making the best use of our existing housing through examining the extent and severity of poor housing conditions, the number of empty homes, fuel poverty energy efficiency and the range of programmes in place to tackle these issues Section 3 looks at meeting housing needs from tackling rough sleeping, provisions for homeless households, homelessness prevention and allocating council and housing associations to households in housing need. It also looks at the supply of affordable housing available for allocation in terms of its extent and size mix. Section 4 looks at the commissioning of housing support and links to social care provision for vulnerable households Section 5 looks at the issues that affect the different neighbourhoods and communities in Croydon, including crime and anti-social behaviour, deprivation and health, and how improvements in housing management and community engagement contribute to improving a wide range of outcomes. A summary of the principal issues derived from the evidence base, and addressed in the housing strategy, is provided at the end of each section. Enquiries about this document should be made to the housing strategy team in the department of adult services, health by emailing david.2.morris@croydon.gov.uk or by phoning 020 8726 6100 extension 60539. Legislation Local authorities are required by statute to produce a range of plans including a sustainable community strategy, and plans required for local development2. They 2 See section 6 of the Local Government Act 2000 -8- Evidence base to April 2011 are also required to prepare and publish a housing strategy under the Local Government Act 20033. The Greater London Authority Act requires the Mayor of London to prepare and publish a London Housing Strategy4 and local housing strategies produced by London borough councils are required to be in “general conformity” with it5. The Mayor published guidance on “general conformity” with the London Housing Strategy in February 2010. Policy The focus of government policy concerning housing strategy has relaxed over the past ten years from tight central regulation of the content and publication of housing strategies directly linked to the allocation of central government funding, towards a focus on the delivery the strategic housing role. Housing was seen as a key element of the previous Labour government’s sustainable communities’ policy through its contribution to place shaping and in 2007 local authorities were given “discretion about how, when, and in what format they document their refreshed housing strategy.’6 The coalition government continues to see local authorities playing the lead role in housing strategy but with less central government control and with more local powers and responsibilities. In London the Mayor is responsible for spatial strategy and housing investment through chairmanship of the Homes and Communities Agency’s (HCA) London Board. When the Localism Bill is enacted these responsibilities will be formally transferred to the Mayor7. The first statutory London Housing Strategy was published in February 2010 and the Mayor also published a new Transport Strategy8 and Economic Development Strategy9 in May 2010. 10. In July 2011 the new London Plan11 was published. The Mayor’s London Housing Strategy aims to raise aspirations and opportunities, to improve the quality of life and to ensure the capital’s housing investment strategy becomes a “platform for success”. The Mayor’s strategic housing priorities are: tackling affordability, developing more opportunities for first time buyers to access homeownership, providing more social and private rented homes, improving the design and sustainability of new homes and optimising delivery through devolution of responsibility and powers to London boroughs with the commitment and capacity to produce agreed levels of housing. 3 Section 87 Local Government Act 2003 Section 28, Greater London Authority Act 2007, inserting a new Section 333A into the GLA Act 1999. 5 Section 28, Greater London Authority Act 2007, inserting a new Section 333D into the GLA Act 1999 6 Paragraph 3.17 Creating Strong, Safe and Prosperous Communities- Statutory Guidance, CLG (July 2008) 7 Section 162 of the Localism bill 8 http://www.london.gov.uk/publication/mayors-transport-strategy 9 http://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Economic-Development-Strategy.pdf 10 London Housing Strategy, GLA (2010). 11 http://www.london.gov.uk/priorities/planning/londonplan 4 -9- Evidence base to April 2011 The Mayor has published proposals for a revised London Housing Strategy that addresses the impact of London's new housing budget, the new 'Affordable Rent' model and the government’s social housing reforms on the delivery of affordable housing for Londoners. The consultation, A Revised London Housing Strategy – Initial Proposals12, was published on 31 August for consultation with the London Assembly and the GLA group. Guidance and best practice Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3) provides guidance to local planning authorities on delivering national Government housing priorities through their planning functions13. PPS3 provides a definition of housing demand and of housing need and sets out what type of housing can be described as affordable. PPS3 expects local planning authorities to base their decisions on a reliable shared evidence base provided in the shape of a strategic housing market assessment (SHMA). Practice guidance on conducting a housing market assessment encourages strategic housing partnerships to consider using secondary data to inform their assessment of the housing market in their area provided that it is robust and reliable. Following the comprehensive spending review in 2007 a number of reports and resources were published highlighting best practice and central government expectations of local authorities in the delivery of their strategic housing role. These included: Building Better Lives published by the Audit Commission in September 2009 Key Line of Enquiry (KLOE) for the local authority strategic approach to housing, revised by the Audit Commission in April 201014 IDeA’s five topic papers covering different aspects of the strategic housing role published in 2007 and 2008 including : o Community leadership o Access to housing and good housing services o Place shaping o New housing provision o A guide for local authority members The Strategic Role of Local Authorities – Powers and Duties published by the CLG in September 200815. These documents continue to be the most coherent explanation of the extent and nature of the local authority strategic housing role. However, they do reflect the previous Labour government’s centralised approach. The coalition government will expect local authorities to continue to use their powers, resources and influence to deliver the strategic housing role, but with a focus on listening to and working with local communities when deciding what to prioritise rather than focusing on central government direction and targets. 12 http://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Revised%20Housing%20Strategy%20proposals.pdf Planning Policy Guidance Statement 3 – Housing, CLG (June 2010) 14 Strategic approach to housing KLOE - for inspections on site before 12th April 2010, Audit Commission (2010 15 The Strategic Role of Local Authorities - Powers and Duties, CLG (2008). 13 - 10 - Evidence base to April 2011 We are Croydon – the vision 2040 In 2008/09 Croydon's Strategic Partnership agreed to develop a new long-term vision for Croydon. The aim of the visioning process was to work with the community to develop a single, integrated vision for the borough through to 2040. Over the eight month engagement programme 20,000 people contributed to developing a clear vision of the type of place Croydon has the potential to become. The vision is for Croydon to be: An enterprising city A learning city A creative city A connected city A sustainable city A caring city The vision offers an ambitious, compelling vision of what Croydon has the potential to achieve by 2040. It describes an enterprising city, a place of opportunity where anyone can achieve their potential as well as a place where people can find a sense of belonging and a connection with the natural environment. It provides the overarching direction and purpose for Croydon’s strategic policy framework. The housing strategy contributes to the achievement of the vision for Croydon in the following ways: A place of opportunity: well designed, spacious, adaptable housing provides a stable platform for positive physical and mental health, future prosperity and social inclusion. For example “housing”: o Provides affordable rented and intermediate housing and low cost home ownership o Tackles worklessness through various projects including Broadening Horizons (and its successors), DOWL and through partnership working with other agencies such as Job Centre Plus o Provides opportunities to get onto the housing ladder through the right to buy, the Assisted Private Purchase Scheme (APPS) and other home ownership initiatives o Enables mobility through mutual exchanges and other mobility schemes A place of belonging: well designed, connected and supported places and communities provide somewhere people want to live and work, to put down roots, and become regarded and valued as places that have everything you need to lead a fulfilled happy life. For example “housing” provides: o Resident engagement in the design and delivery of services through tenant participation activities, supporting and consulting with tenant associations, the tenant and leaseholder panel, resident involvement, consultation and engagement events o Support and resettlement services for vulnerable households including exoffenders, people leaving hospital, people recovering from substance misuse - 11 - Evidence base to April 2011 and refugees o Support for vulnerable tenants to help sustain their tenancies o Supported housing and floating support to help people live independently for longer including handy-person services, aids and adaptations and Careline. A sustainable place: buildings designed with purpose and efficiency in mind, that use water and fuel economically, that put something back through using sun, wind, and reusing water and heat and that encourage a greener behaviour and outlook through their connection to streetscapes and greener public spaces and buildings. For example “housing” provides: o Socially sustainable places by enabling families to stay in same area, tackling acute housing need including homelessness and rough sleeping o Lifetime homes designed to allow easy adaptation throughout peoples’ lives together with adaptations enabling people to live independently in their own homes for longer o Domestic energy efficiency through modernisation of homes and loans for homeowners, cutting fuel bills as well as reducing harmful emissions, and promotion of environment-friendly lifestyles through recycling facilities or advice A caring city: good quality housing management, need and support services linked to care and health help households in housing need, through appropriate accommodation, to recover and regain positive physical and health become socially included and become enabled to live healthy lives and make a positive contribution. For example, “housing” provides: o Services to meet housing need including providing accommodation for homeless households and helping overcrowded households and those occupying unfit and unsuitable housing move to more suitable housing o Housing support to assist vulnerable households to live independently and tenancy support for tenants who need it o Enforcement services to tackle hate crime and anti-social behaviour in partnership with the Police Supporting strategies and plans Croydon’s strategic policy framework is supported by a wide range of detailed strategies and plans covering different aspects of the council’s functions and responsibilities. A number of these detailed strategies are directly relevant to the delivery of the strategic housing role and are referred to in the evidence base including: Homelessness strategy Overcrowding strategy Supporting people strategy Older people’s housing strategy Crime and disorder reduction strategy Economic development strategy Health and wellbeing plan - 12 - Evidence base to April 2011 ASSESSING HOUSING NEED ACROSS ALL TENURES Local authorities have a longstanding statutory duty to “consider housing conditions in their district and the needs of the district with respect to the provision of further housing accommodation.”16 The duty stretches back to the 19th century along with responsibilities to identify and tackle unfit housing and appoint an Officer of Health17. Housing needs assessments support and justify decisions about housing, from individual planning applications to strategic plans setting out the extent and nature of future housing development. Housing assessments should be robust, credible and stand up to scrutiny. Government guidance on how best to assess housing needs has changed over the past ten years and currently looks at the longer term demographic and affordability factors that influence how markets operate, recognising the dynamic and complex nature of housing markets, rather than previously taking a detailed look at year on year changes in the number of households occupying unsuitable housing. What have our previous assessments told us? Our 2006 the housing strategy evidence base identified household growth, declining household size and the growth in the proportion of lone parents, older people and BME households within the boroughs population as key drivers of household growth. More recently the Mayor of London published an evidence base in support of his 2010 London Housing Strategy18 which similarly indentified population growth and the growth in the proportion of one person households as the key issues for housing in London. High house prices and rents in comparison to household income is the key issue for affordability set out in the 2006 evidence base and the Mayor’s 2010 evidence base. This section of the evidence base first looks at the demographic drivers of housing need including data from the 2001 Census, mid-year population estimates and trends in household formation and their likely impact on future demand for housing in the borough. An analysis of housing affordability follows, which includes some background information on the socio-economic characteristics of the borough. It concludes with the main findings of the 2008 Local Housing Market Assessment, which is the most recent and detailed analysis of housing need in the borough, and a summary of the key issues for the housing strategy. DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERS OF HOUSING NEED Population increase The 2001 census found the population of Croydon to be 330,58719, an increase of 5.6% since the 1991 census. In 2001 Croydon was London’s most populous borough, as it was in 1991. Croydon’s population growth since 1991, however, has been 16 Section 8 of the Housing Act 1985, Section 91 the Housing Act 1957 and Section 1 of the Housing, Town Planning, &c. Act 1919. 17 See Sections 4 and 5 of the Artizans and Labourers Dwellings Act 1868. 18 Housing in London, GLA (2010) (published as a draft for consultation in November 2008) 19 ONS Census 2001 - 13 - Evidence base to April 2011 relatively slow compared to boroughs like Tower Hamlets and Camden that have seen increases well into double figures. Table 1: Census 2001 population for England, London and Croydon England London 2001 49,138,831 7,172,091 2010 52,234,000 7,825,200 Croydon 330,587 345,600 Table 1 above shows the populations of England, London and Croydon at 2001 and 201020. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) mid year estimate for 2010 shows Croydon’s population to have increased to 345,600 people; with 21% of the population aged under 16 years of age, 64% of working age and 15% of pensionable age21. Nationally between 1999 and 2008 international migration has been the primary factor in population increase. Since 2002 the contribution of natural change (births minus deaths) has increased and in 2008 it accounted for over half of total population growth (54%) for the first time in nearly a decade. In Croydon over the past five years the most significant contributor to population growth has been natural change (the difference between live births and deaths) and international migration. Internal migration figures show on average 2,000 more people leave the borough for other areas than come in, however, this outflow of population sharply decreased in 2010 to less than half the 2006 figure22. Figure 1 below shows the contributors to population growth in Croydon from 2006 to 2010. Figure 1: Contributors to population change – Croydon 2006-2010 4,000 3,000 2,000 Natural change 1,000 0 Net internal migration -1,000 -2,000 Net international migration -3,000 -4,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 ONS Census 2001 and 2010 mid year rounded. 2010 Mid-Year Population Estimate – Table 8, ONS 22 Mid-Year Population Estimates Analysis Tool, ONS 2009. 21 - 14 - 2010 Evidence base to April 2011 The population of the United Kingdom (UK) is expected to increase by 4.9 million from an estimated 62.3 million in 2010 to 67.2 million 2020, an annual rate of growth of 0.5%23. Of this, 2.7 million (56 per cent) is expected to result from natural increase (more births than deaths) and the remaining 2.2 million (44 per cent) from migration. Population projections for Croydon expect the population to increase by 22,000 from 341,200 to 363,60024 between 2008 and 2018. Table 2 below shows the projected populations for England, London and Croydon to 2018. Table 2: ONS Sub-national population projections 2008-based England London Croydon 2008 51,464,600 7,668,300 2018 55,252,200 8,337,900 341,200 363,600 The GLA published detailed borough level demographic projections in January 2010 covering population, households and resident labour force to support the draft revised London Plan and other strategies. These projections expect London’s population to increase by 1.07 million between 2011 and 2031, equivalent to nearly 14%. Croydon’s population is projected to increase from 334,500 in 2006 to 352,300 in 2016 (17,800 more people)25. Table 3 sets out the GLA’s population projections below. Table 3: GLA London Plan: Borough Demographic Projections - Update 01-2010 London Outer London Croydon 2006 7,526,900 4,545,500 334,500 2016 8,079,500 4,795,900 352,300 2021 8,346,800 4,923,500 361,300 2031 8,868,700 5,172,800 379,400 Household formation The 2001 census found that the proportion of family households in England had decreased between 1991 and 2001, from 70.6% to 67.0%, a drop of 3.6%. This decrease was offset by a 3.9% increase in the proportion of one-person households over the same period. The proportion of single people within the population increased from 27% to 33% between 1991 and 200126. The growing trend in people living alone accounted for much of the increase in the overall number of households and, as a result, a decrease in the average household size. In 2001 there were 138,999 households living in Croydon, of which 33% were one person households, 13% were lone parent households and 32% were households with dependant children. Table 4 below sets out the number of household types in England, London and Croydon found in the 2001 census. 23 2010-based national population projections - principal projection and key variants. ONS 2008 Subnational population projections 25 The London Plan: Borough Demographic Projections, GLA, (Jan 2010) 26 National Statistician’s Annual Article on the population: a Demographic Review, ONS (2008) 24 - 15 - Evidence base to April 2011 Table 4: Census 2001 Croydon – Household types (ONS) Croydon London England 138,999 3,015,997 20,451,427 Married couple household with dependent child(ren) 25,867 507,512 3,792,961 Married couple household with no dependent child(ren) 31,562 602,194 5,881,571 Cohabiting couple household with dependent child(ren) 4,250 82,184 694,017 Cohabiting couple household with no dependent child(ren) 7,242 201,295 1,175,109 14,014 267,323 1,458,745 5,206 119,579 682,457 46,069 1,046,888 6,150,264 71 13,105 75,304 4,718 175,917 540,999 All Households Lone parent household with dependent child(ren) Lone parent household with no dependent child(ren) One person household Multi person household: All student Multi person household: All other According to the ONS, by 2016 the number of households living in Croydon is expected to increase to 157,000, an increase of 18,000 households since 2001. Table 5 shows the number of households in England, London and Croydon in 2001 and the projected numbers at 2006 and 2016. Table 5: Household projections to 2016 (ONS)27 2001 2006 England 20,451,427 21,515,000 London 3,015,997 3,178,000 Croydon 138,999 143,000 2016 24,107,000 3,516,000 157,000 GLA household projections estimate the average household size in London will decrease from 2.337 to 2.284 between 2006 and 2016 and one-person households will account for the majority of household growth. Married couples are the only household type projected to decline, with the loss being more than compensated by the increase in cohabiting couples. Table 6 below sets out the detailed household projections for London to 201628. Table 6: London household projections (thousands) (GLA) Married couples Cohabiting couples Lone parents Other (2+ adults) One person Total Average household size 2001 % 1115.7 36.75% 261.7 8.62% 274.6 9.04% 332.1 10.94% 1052 34.65% 3036.1 2.39 2006 1039.9 333.7 317.3 340.7 1149 3180.6 2.337 % 32.70% 10.49% 9.98% 10.71% 36.13% 2016 916.2 456.8 373 378 1372.7 3496.7 2.284 % 26.20% 13.06% 10.67% 10.81% 39.26% These projections suggest the number of one person households in Croydon will increase to more than 60,000, an increase of 14,000 between 2001 and 2016. Between 1991 and 2001 the proportion of lone parents more than doubled from 4.3% to 9% and GLA projections suggest there will be 26,100 (16%) lone parent 27 Table 406: Household estimates and projections by district3,4, England, 1981- 2031 (CLG) 28 DMAG Update 01-2010 Borough Projections for the London Plan. - 16 - Evidence base to April 2011 households in Croydon by 2016, an increase of 6,900 between 2001 and 2016. Both of these projections have implications for the need for affordable housing. The latest household projections statistical release from the CLG published in November 2010 estimates the number of households in England will increase to 27.5 million in 2033, an increase of 5.8 million (27 per cent) over 200829. The increase in one person households makes up two-thirds of the overall increase in households. By 2033, 19% of the household population is projected to live alone, compared with 14 per cent in 2008. By 2033, 33 per cent of households will be headed by those aged 65 or over, up from 26 per cent in 2008. The 2008-based projections show a lower growth in households compared with the 2006-based projections, equating to 20,500 fewer households per year between 2008 and 2031 in England. Decreasing household size and the increase in one person households are significant issues for the housing strategy, affecting the size and type of dwellings needed in the borough. The projected increase in households less likely to be able to afford market housing, particularly lone parent households will affect the mix of market and affordable housing required. Age structure Figure 2 below shows the age profile of the Croydon and London population compared to the UK average (shown by the blue line). Croydon has a different age structure to the UK average with a higher proportion of people aged 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44 and young children. Figure 2: Population age profile – London and Croydon (census 2001) Croydon population age profile (Census 2001 London population age profile (Census 2001) Nationally, between 1983 and 2008 the proportion of people aged 65 and over increased slightly to 16%30. However, the number in the oldest age categories (aged 85 and over) doubled from 0.6 million to 1.3 million. By 2033 the proportion of 29 30 Household Projections, 2008 to 2033, England (CLG) November 2010 Page 1 of the National Statistician’s article above, ONS (2008). - 17 - Evidence base to April 2011 people aged 65 and over will increase to 23%, and the proportion of people aged over 85 will double again to 3.3 million representing 5% of the population. The proportion of the population aged between 16 and 64, however, is expected to fall from 65 per cent to 59 per cent. ONS sub-national population projections show how the age structure of Croydon’s population will change between 2008 and 2018. In 2008, 16% of the population of England was estimated to be aged 65 and over, and 13% in Croydon. It is expected over the ten years to 2018 the proportion or people aged 65 and over will increase to 18% in England. In Croydon the increase is slightly less to only to 14%. Table 7 below shows Croydon’s population projection to 2028 broken down by age. Table 7: Croydon population projections by age to 2018 and 2028 (ONS31) Age range 2008 2018 2028 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-90 90+ All ages 31 ,000s % ,000s % ,000s % 24.0 20.7 21.7 22.1 21.3 24.7 25.1 27.3 29.0 26.4 21.1 17.8 16.4 12.2 10.6 8.5 6.4 4.1 2.0 341.2 7.03% 6.07% 6.36% 6.48% 6.24% 7.24% 7.36% 8.00% 8.50% 7.74% 6.18% 5.22% 4.81% 3.58% 3.11% 2.49% 1.88% 1.20% 0.59% 100% 25.0 24.4 23.0 19.4 20.1 27.6 28.2 25.9 25.2 26.4 27.2 23.2 17.3 13.8 12.6 9.2 7.3 4.7 3.1 363.6 6.88% 6.71% 6.33% 5.34% 5.53% 7.59% 7.76% 7.12% 6.93% 7.26% 7.48% 6.38% 4.76% 3.80% 3.47% 2.53% 2.01% 1.29% 0.85% 100.00% 25.7 25.1 24.2 22.8 20.9 25.1 27.4 29.1 28.4 25.8 24.5 23.8 22.5 18.2 13.5 10.8 9.2 5.8 4.9 387.7 6.63% 6.47% 6.24% 5.88% 5.39% 6.47% 7.07% 7.51% 7.33% 6.65% 6.32% 6.14% 5.80% 4.69% 3.48% 2.79% 2.37% 1.50% 1.26% 100.00% 2008-based Subnational Population Projections (quinary age groups, persons (ONS). - 18 - Evidence base to April 2011 The projected change in the age profile of Croydon’s population has significant implications for the provision of older people’s housing, housing design and the provision of housing support including aids and adaptations. An important part of housing strategy is to ensure there is an adequate mix of housing and that appropriate steps are taken to relieve any housing pressures including those resulting from an ageing population. Improving energy efficiency and relieving fuel poverty are also important as thousands of people aged 65 and over die unnecessarily in the winter months, often because they cannot afford to heat their homes and are more susceptible to illnesses caused by cold and damp. For every additional winter death it is estimated there are also around 8 admissions to hospital, 32 visits to outpatient care and 30 social services calls putting extra pressure on health services32. Black and minority ethnic population One significant change to Croydon’s population between 1991 and 2001 was the increase in the proportion of people belonging to black and minority ethnic (BME) groups. The 2001 Census increased the number of ethnic categories collected which makes direct comparisons with 1991 difficult. However, in 2001 over a third of (36%) of Croydon’s population classified themselves as belonging to a BME group including 6.5% of the population classified as white, but not white British. This is similar to the proportion for London (40%) but significantly more than England nationally (13%). BME households tend to be overrepresented in social housing; however, there are considerable differences between different ethnic groups. Bangladeshi and black African householders are more likely to live in social rented housing than Indian or Chinese households33. Significantly for housing need, large and single parent households are more common among some BME groups than the white British 32 33 Age UK http://www.ageuk.org.uk/get-involved/campaign/preventing-winter-deaths/ ODPM (2005) Housing in England 2003/4 (London: ONS); Census 2001. - 19 - Evidence base to April 2011 population and are more likely to be in poverty and be unable to satisfy their housing needs in the housing market. The demographic and socio-economic factors that affect BME households’ housing needs are interconnected: “…education, immigration patterns and employment rates influence income, while demographic patterns determine the dependency ratio within a household. Poverty is a main factor pushing people to social sector housing. Large families are harder to support on the basis of income alone, and families with only one earner tend to have below average incomes.”34 The BME population’s age profile is younger than the general population35. Fertility rates, household size and the age of first time mothers affect the demographic characteristics of an ethnic group and predispose some to poverty and housing need. Caribbean women tend to have children earlier and Caribbean ethnic groups have lower rates of marriage and partnership and a high prevalence of single parenthood36. South Asian groups have higher rates of marriage at an earlier age, higher fertility rates and larger families on average and this pattern is particularly found in the Pakistani and Bangladeshi ethnic groups. Another feature of South Asian households is older relatives (mothers) living with their sons contributing to the larger than average household size. GLA population projections estimate the BME population in Croydon will increase from less than 30% (100,200) in 2001 to a predicted 45% (161,200) in 2016, an increase of 61,000 since 2001. Croydon is predicted to be one of eight London boroughs by 2031 to have BME populations making up more than 50 per cent of the total population. Table 8 below shows the projected increases in different ethnic groups in Croydon between 2001 and 2031. Total White Black Caribbean Black African Black Other Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Other Asian Chinese Other BME (number) BME (%) Table 8: Croydon BME population projections to 2031 (GLA)37 ,000s ,000s ,000s ,000s ,000s ,000s ,000s ,000s ,000s ,000s ,000s ,000s % 2001 335.5 235.3 26.4 14.9 9.6 21.6 7.6 1.8 10.6 2.2 5.5 100 29.9% 2006 334.5 211.6 31.2 20.0 12.1 25.8 9.6 2.3 12.3 1.9 7.6 122 36.7% 2011 343.3 199.6 35.9 24.2 14.5 29.4 11.6 2.7 13.9 1.9 9.6 143.7 41.9% 2016 352.3 191.1 39.9 27.4 16.6 32.6 13.4 3.1 15.2 1.8 11.2 161.2 45.8% 2021 361.3 185.6 43.4 29.8 18.3 35.3 14.9 3.4 16.2 1.8 12.5 175.7 48.6% 2026 370.4 182.8 46.5 31.5 19.8 37.5 16.2 3.7 17.0 1.8 13.5 187.6 50.6% 34 Understanding demographic, spatial and economic impacts on future affordable housing demand, Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research, University of Cambridge (December 2007) 35 Census 2001 BME groups represent 8% of population overall, but 18% of 16-24 year olds. 36 Berthoud, R. (2005) Family Formation in Multi-Cultural Britain: Three Patterns of Disadvantage (Cambridge: Cambridge University press). 37 DMAG Update 04-2010 -R2008 London Plan Ethnic Group Population Projections – see also http://www.london.gov.uk/who-runs-london/mayor/publications/society/facts-and-figures/diversity - 20 - Evidence base to April 2011 2031 379.4 181.9 49.1 32.9 21.0 39.4 17.4 4.0 17.5 1.8 14.2 197.5 52.1% Gypsies and travellers Romany gypsies and Irish travellers are recognised ethnic groups and like other members of Croydon’s black and minority ethnic community are protected from discrimination by the Equality Act 2010. Local authorities are required to assess their need for housing in the same way that they are required to assess the needs for new homes for people who live in “bricks and mortar” homes. There are 19 existing authorised gypsy and traveller pitches in Croydon with an estimated four households staying on unauthorised sites and 60 people living in conventional housing.38 The London-wide Gypsy and Traveller Accommodation Needs Assessment (GTANA) was conducted in 2008 covering households on both authorised and unauthorised sites, and gypsy and traveller families living in conventional housing. The key finding for Croydon was a need for between 10 and 19 pitches over the period 2007-201739. The upper range incorporates the needs of households currently in “bricks and mortar” accommodation but who have a psychological aversion to conventional housing. An informal survey by council officers during 2008 of gypsy and traveller families, who either lived locally or had close ties with Croydon, broadly supported the findings of the London GTANA in estimating a local need for up to an additional 20 pitches in the borough. Croydon has already provided four extra pitches on its existing Latham’s Way site (in 2008), reducing the need for new pitches in the borough. It is unlikely that the new London Plan will set the London boroughs targets for sites. Disabled people There is no single statistic that captures the extent of our disabled population. We have 51,300 people with a limiting long term illness or disability, which is just below the national and London average. We have around 6,800 people aged 65 or over who need support with mobility tasks. Almost 3,900 are blind or partially sighted. Nearly one in four people aged 65 and over have one or more chronic health condition, representing 10,900 people. In addition, we know there are: 38 39 7930 adults claiming a disability living allowance 6690 adults unable to work due to disability An estimated 20,857 adults with a moderate or serious physical disability (PANSI) An estimated 9612 adults that need some help with personal care (PANSI) An estimated 7740 adults with some degree of hearing loss (PANSI) An estimated 141 adults have a serious visual impairment (PANSI) GLA London Borough’s Gypsy and Travellers Accommodation Needs Assessment (March 2008), Table 3.6 GLA London Borough’s GTANA (March 2008), Table 12.23 - 21 - Evidence base to April 2011 693 disabled people receiving social care services in the community 86 disabled people living in residential/nursing care 6000 disabled people issued with freedom passes 11,000 people issued with Blue Badges 6500 disabled people using wheelchairs in Croydon We can estimate the number of people affected by specific disabilities using information from national organisations on their prevalence. While this data is not standardised to our population, it nevertheless provides a rough outline of the numbers of people with different disabilities in Croydon. Incidence of disability Cystic Fibrosis 28 47 850 Motor Neurone Disease 660 Parkinsons Disease 550 3740 13816 Multiple Sclerosis Rheumatoid Arthritis Diabetes Hearing Loss 13750 Sight Loss Mind the Step: An estimation of housing need among wheelchair users in England 40, published by Habinteg Housing Association and London Southbank University, sets out national and regional estimates of housing need among wheelchair users. It provides guidance on how to produce similar estimates at a local authority level. Applying the Habinteg methodology to Croydon produces an estimate of: 2,780 wheelchair user households living in the borough, Of which, 500 have unmet housing needs. The report suggests the following actions would help to reduce unmet need for adapted housing: Local authorities should ensure they make the best use of existing accessible housing (it is estimated that up to 65% of accessible homes end up being allocated to households without a disability need). 40 Mind the Step: An estimation of housing need among wheelchair users in England40, published by Habinteg Housing Association and London Southbank University (2010) - 22 - Evidence base to April 2011 Households should be assisted with “in-situ” solutions wherever practicable e.g. installing aids and adaptations in the current accommodation to make homes more suitable. Building more new homes to accessible standards. Although there is not a complete list of all accessible housing available in Croydon, an estimate of the shortfall in supply of wheelchair homes has been carried out and is set out in Table 9, below broken down into the needs of people who use wheelchairs inside (wheelchair adapted) and outside (wheelchair accessible). Table 9: Estimates for the Shortfall in Croydon Supply of Wheelchair Homes in the Public and Private Sectors by April 2011. Wheelchair Indoor Outdoor Total Households Public Sector 52* 169 221 Private Sector 118 328 446 Total 170 497 667 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY House prices Over the past ten years average (median) prices in England have increased by 105%. However year on year increases have slowed in recent years from 11% in 2004, to 3% to 2007, and there have been decreases of 9% in 2008 and 5% in 2010. Table 10 below shows the change in average house prices over the past ten years in England, London and Croydon. Average house prices in Croydon have been between 13% and 30% cheaper than the London average over the past ten years. Table 10: Average (median) house prices 2001-2011 (Land Registry)41 England London Croydon 2001 £85,000 £144,500 £115,000 2002 £97,000 £161,500 £134,725 2003 £123,500 £190,000 £166,950 2004 £141,000 £208,000 £180,000 2005 £155,000 £225,000 £191,000 2006 £160,000 £235,000 £194,500 2007 £170,000 £250,000 £215,000 2008 £175,000 £263,500 £230,000 2009 £159,000 £248,000 £210,000 2010 £185,000 £280,000 £218,000 2011 £175,000 £288,000 £210,000 A feature of the housing market since the credit crunch in 2008 has been a decrease in sales volumes which have allowed excess demand to force house prices back up 41 Table 582 Housing market: median house prices based on Land Registry data, by district, from 1996 (quarterly - http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/housing/xls/141395.xls - 23 - Evidence base to April 2011 to 2008 levels. Figure 3 below shows the trend in house prices and sales volumes in Croydon following the credit crunch. Figure 3: Average house prices and sales volumes 1996 to 2011 (Land Registry) 400000 700 350000 600 500 250000 400 200000 300 150000 100000 50000 Sales volume Average house price 300000 200 Average house price Sales volume 0 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 0 100 Entry level house prices Guidance on conducting strategic housing market assessments42 suggests using lower quartile house prices as the “entry level” for households looking to move into owner occupation43. Table 11 below shows the change in lower quartile house prices over the past ten years in England, London and Croydon. Lower quartile house prices in Croydon have been between 10% and 25% cheaper than London overall during this period. Table 11: Lower quartile house prices 2000-2011 (CLG Live Tables 582 and 583) England London Croydon 2001 £55,000 £102,000 £81,000 2002 £60,000 £119,995 £103,000 2003 £76,000 £146,000 £132,500 2004 £94,000 £160,000 £145,000 2005 £107,500 £172,000 £155,000 2006 £116,000 £180,000 £155,000 2007 £124,000 £195,000 £169,950 2008 £124,950 £210,000 £179,000 2009 £112,000 £190,000 £169,996 2010 £122,500 £214,000 £175,000 2011 £120,000 £214,000 £165,150 Table 12 below shows the ratio of the lower quartile incomes to the lower quartile house prices for England, London and Croydon, which is seen as a good indicator of 42 43 Strategic Housing Market Assessments - Practice Guidance Version 2, CLG, (2007) Page 27 Step 3.1 Data Issues Page 26. - 24 - Evidence base to April 2011 the affordability of entry level housing. Croydon has seen a similar pattern of growth with a period of contraction following the credit crunch to that of London overall over the past ten years. Lower quartile house prices in Croydon are more than eight times lower quartile earnings and this ratio has nearly doubled over the past ten years. Table 12: Ratio of lower quartile earnings to lower quartile house prices (CLG) England London Croydon 2000 3.91 5.40 4.76 2001 4.08 6.02 5.45 2002 4.45 6.77 6.45 2003 5.23 7.73 7.93 2004 6.27 8.25 8.36 2005 6.82 8.50 8.97 2006 7.12 8.64 8.53 2007 7.25 9.14 9.35 2008 6.98 9.31 8.96 2009 6.28 8.04 7.96 2010 6.69 8.96 8.05 The council’s 2002 housing needs assessment found house prices in Croydon did not vary significantly across the borough with the exception of four bedroom properties, where prices at the eastern edge of the borough could vary considerably from the average. Table 13 below shows the minimum and average house prices by property size in Croydon produced by the survey uprated by the increase in Land Registry lower quartile and average (median) prices between 2002 and 201144. Table 13: Croydon minimum and average house prices 2011 (2002 in brackets) Minimum Price Average Price 1 bed (£94,000) £150,719 (£110,000) £171,457 2 bed (£122,500) £196,416 (£139,500) £217,438 3 bed (£163,000) £261,354 (£202,000) £314,857 4 bed (£190,000) £304,646 (£301,500) £469,948 Rents According to the English Housing Survey (EHS) just over seven million households were renting their homes in 2009–10. The social housing sector (councils and housing associations) accounted for just over half of these households (52%) and the rest, almost 3.4 million households, rented from private landlords (48% of all renting)45. Rents (excluding services but including housing benefit) increased between 2008-09 and 2009–10 in both the social and private rented sectors. The average private rented sector weekly rent was nearly twice social housing rent, £156 compared to 44 Source data from CLG Live Tables 582 and 583: Median price increase from £134,725 to £210,000 (55.87%); and lower quartile from £103,000 and £165,150 (60.34%). 45 English Housing Survey Headline Report 2009/10, CLG (2011) - 25 - Evidence base to April 2011 £75. This is partly explained by the private rented sector having a much wider and more varied range of stock and the social sector having a higher proportion of purpose-built flats. Table 14 shows mean and median rent levels from the English Housing Survey of 2009/10. Table 14: English Housing Survey 2009-10 (Full household sample) 2008–09 2009–10 mean median mean median 1 social rented sector £ per week local authority 66 64 71 67 housing association 75 72 79 76 all social renters 71 68 75 72 private rented sector market renters2 160 138 162 137 non-market renters paying rent3 129 100 136 106 all with known tenancy type 155 133 158 133 with unknown tenancy type 123 112 132 120 all private renters paying rent 153 130 156 133 Notes: 1) not compatible with previous SEH estimates due to methodological changes 2) with assured or assured shorthold tenancies 3) with private tenancies not available on the open market Local housing allowance The Valuation Office publishes local housing allowance (LHA) rates for broad market rental areas in England every month. Rent Officers determine the LHA rates using a list of rents created for each category of property within every Broad Rental Market Area (BRMA). In April 2010 the LHA was determined by taking the mid-point, or median of the list of rents for each LHA property category (reforms to the calculation of LHA with effect from April 2011 use the 30th centile of rents, not the mid point). Croydon is mainly in the outer south London area, however, a small area of North Croydon is in Inner London46. LHA rates in outer south London are 40% higher than the average for England, if you exclude shared accommodation (which is only 17% higher in London). Table 15 shows LHA rates for England, the Outer South London and Outer South West London BRMAs at April 2011. Table 15: Outer London LHA rates, April 2011 (VOA) Shared Average England April 2011 Outer South London April 2011 Outer South East London 2011 Outer South West London 2011 £63.83 £75.19 £73.50 £80.00 46 1 Bed £107.14 £150.00 £150.00 £184.62 2 bed £132.55 £184.62 £184.62 £230.77 3 bed £156.63 £230.77 £216.23 £276.92 4 bed £204.49 £300.00 £276.92 £355.38 The following postcodes fall within the Inner South East London BRMA: SE25 6BN, SE25 6BQ, SE25 6DP, SE25 6DU, SE25 6DR, SE25 6DS, SE25 6DT SW16 4AA, SW16 4BT, SW16 4EU, SW16 4AD postcodes beginning SE19 postcodes beginning SW16 3. - 26 - Evidence base to April 2011 Private rent – London Rents Map The GLA first published its London Rents Map in December 200947 showing average rents for private accommodation for each postcode area in London. Table 16 below shows the lower quartile, average and upper quartile rents by property size in Croydon as of September 2011. The lower quartile rents, which are seen as a good indicator of the “entry level” to the private rented market48, are between 2% and 15% lower than median rents. Table 16: Croydon rent levels, September 2011 (GLA) Lower quartile Median Room £69 £81 One bed £150 £162 Two bed £192 £196 Three bed £230 £254 Four + bed £288 £335 Upper quartile £92 £173 £208 £277 £369 Local authority rent Local authority rents are substantially lower than rent in the private rented sector as can be seen in Table 16 above. Over the period 2000/01 to 2009/10 average local authority rents in England have increased by 45%, in London by 35% and in Croydon by 25%. Figure 4 below shows average local authority rents in England, Outer London and Croydon between 2000 and 2010. Figure 4: Local Authority Rents 2001-2011 (£) Housing association rent Housing association rents are on average slightly higher than local authority rents and the difference between the two has increased in outer London from 7% to 12% in Croydon from 4% to 13%. Figure 5 below shows housing association rents in England, Outer London and Croydon between 2000 and 2010. 47 48 http://www.london.gov.uk/rents/about/ Strategic Housing Market Assessments - Practice Guidance Version 2, CLG (2007) page 27 - 27 - Evidence base to April 2011 Figure 5: Housing Association Rents 2000-2010 Housing Association rents 2000-2010 120.00 100.00 £ per week 80.00 60.00 England Outer London 40.00 Croydon 20.00 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Repossession Mortgage repossessions Mortgage repossessions are an indicator of housing stress. On average there are around 85,000 mortgage claims issued in England every year49 which represents 4 claims for every 1,000 households. Figure 6 below shows the number of mortgage possession actions in England and Wales since 1990, and clearly shows significant spikes in activity in 1992 and 2008. 49 Annual mortgage possession claims issued in England and Wales 2000-2010 Q4, Ministry of Justice (2011_. Average of mortgage claims issued - 28 - Evidence base to April 2011 Figure 6: Mortgage Possession Actions - England & Wales, 1990 to 2011 Qtr1 Between 2004 and 2008 the number of mortgage possession claims in Croydon increased from 475 in 2001 to a peak of 1,635 in 2006. Since then the number of possession claims has fallen to 910 in 2009 and in 2010 to 725 reflecting the introduction of various mortgage support measures and the mortgage pre-action protocol50. Croydon has had the highest number of mortgage possession claims issued in London over the ten years from 2001 to 2010, which is consistent with the size of its population relative to other boroughs, however, the number of mortgage claims per 1,000 households is also significantly higher than the outer London average and only consistently exceeded by Barking and Dagenham and Newham. This suggests a higher proportion of households in Croydon and Barking and Dagenham and Newham have purchased housing at the upper limit of affordability and are more vulnerable to the impact of movements in the housing market, mortgage rates and pressure on household incomes from the wider economy. Landlord possessions Landlord repossessions are another indicator of housing stress. There are on average more than 140,000 landlord possession claims (which includes private and social landlords) made each year in England, which represents nearly 7 claims per 1,000 households. Figure 7 below shows the number of landlord possession actions in England and Wales since 1999, and clearly shows a declining trend in activity from over 30,000 orders in 1999 to less than 20,000 in 2010. 50 UK Housing Review Briefing Paper 2010, Hal Pawson and Steve Wilcox - 29 - Evidence base to April 2011 Figure 7: Landlord Possession Actions – England & Wales, 1999 to 2011 Qtr1 In Croydon the number of landlord possession claims issued has decreased from 2,240 in 2003 to 1,665 in 2009. 2010, however, has seen an increase to 1,830 claims issued. Over the past ten years Croydon has consistently been within the top three outer London boroughs in terms of the number of landlord possession claims issued. This is consistent with the boroughs population size, however, and the number of claims issued per thousand households shows Croydon to be less remarkable, ranking 7th of 19 outer London boroughs in 2010, very close to the London average. Affordability Affordability of market housing for purchase Practice guidance on conducting a housing market assessment uses 3.5 times gross household income for a single earner household or 2.9 times the gross household income for dual-income households as the upper limit to affordability for purchasing market housing. Table 17 below shows the minimum income required to purchase entry level market housing shown in Table 13 above. Table 17: Minimum household income required to purchase an entry level property (2011) Minimum Income to purchase (gross) Single income Dual income 1 bed £43,062 £51,972.07 2 bed £56,118 £67,729.66 3 bed £74,672 £90,122.07 - 30 - Evidence base to April 2011 4 bed £87,041 £105,050.34 Affordability of market housing for rent The practice guidance also suggests renting a property becomes unaffordable where the annual rent is more than 30% of household income, Subsequent guidance on conducting housing market assessments suggests it becomes unaffordable if the rent is more than 25% of household income. Using the 30% gross household income affordability threshold means a household would need an income of £26,000 per annum to rent an entry level one bedroom property and almost £50,000 to rent a property with four or more bedrooms. Table 18 shows the minimum income required to rent market accommodation in Croydon using London Rents Map data. Table 18: London Rents Map September 2011 - annual income required Lower quartile Room One bed Two bed Three bed Four bed £69 £150 £192 £230 £288 Annual income req'd £11,960 £26,000 £33,280 £39,867 £49,920 Median £81 £162 £196 £254 £335 Annual income req'd £14,040 £28,080 £33,973 £44,027 £58,067 Upper quartile £92 £173 £208 £277 £369 Annual income req'd £15,947 £29,987 £36,053 £48,013 £63,960 Croydon’s economy Croydon has a large town centre and substantial retail developments along the Purley Way providing the south east of England with one of its major shopping centres. It is a centre for business administration and is identified in the Mayor’s London plan as an opportunity area (with significant brownfield resources for housing or commercial development linked to public transport), as a potential development centre for strategic offices and higher education, and as a key element in the Wandle Valley development corridor. The council has been working with the GLA to develop an 'Opportunity Area Planning Framework' (OAPF) for Croydon’s metropolitan centre (CMC) to enable development proposals to contribute to meeting homes and jobs growth targets and support wider area regeneration. The OAPF will form a part of the Mayor’s planning framework and will support Croydon’s emerging spatial (physical and geographic) strategy for the metropolitan centre by focussing on implementation. Croydon is well placed to provide access to jobs and business opportunities both in central London, the Gatwick corridor and the South coast. It benefits from good transport links to central London and in 2010 became part of the London underground system with the extension of the East London Line to West Croydon. However, Croydon has seen a decline in traditional, manufacturing industry which has affected areas towards Crystal Palace and other parts of north Croydon. Over the last ten years Croydon’s economy has been in decline with a reduction of 7% in the total number of full time jobs in the borough, compared to a 6% increase in - 31 - Evidence base to April 2011 London and an 8% increase in Great Britain51. Croydon has a lower jobs density, measured by the ratio of total jobs to population aged 16-64, compared to both the Great Britain and London 52. The fabric of many of the office and industrial buildings has deteriorated and some areas and town centres, such as Coulsdon and Purley, are in need of regeneration. The local economy is particularly reliant on the retail and public sectors and there are few opportunities in knowledge-based industries. Croydon has a relatively low skills base53 and has a greater proportion of people employed in sectors vulnerable to the impact of recession. It also has a relatively high proportion of public sector jobs and is likely to experience the impact of government spending cuts more severely than other areas. However, there are also resilient local employment clusters in the design and engineering, insurance and legal sectors. The Economic Development Strategy refresh 2010 identifies four issues for Croydon to act on: Unemployment – there are around 30,000 people in Croydon claiming out of work benefits54, however, worklessness is concentrated in particular neighbourhoods. Skills - Croydon has fewer people with level 4 skills among its working population than the London average55. Occupations – Croydon has fewer residents employed in knowledge intensive occupations56 than the London average. Earnings – earnings are around 10% lower in Croydon households than the south London average57. Employment In the UK in April 2011 there were 29.24 million people in employment, very slightly below the peak of 29.6 million in April 2008. Table 19 below shows Croydon’s labour force projections from 2006 to 2016 and Table 20 shows the number and percentage of economically active people (both working and unemployed but looking for work) in Croydon compared to London and Great Britain. Table 19: Resident Labour Force Projections (GLA) DMAG Resident Labour Force Projections (thousands) Croydon 51 52 2006 2011 2016 172.8 177.3 181.1 ONS annual business inquiry employee analysis (Full time jobs 1998 95,700; 2008 89,500) ONS jobs density 2009 (Croydon 0.59; London 0.88; Great Britain 0.78) 53 ONS annual population survey, and Census 2001 DWP quarterly benefits data February 2010. 55 ONS APS 2008 56 Knowledge occupations – managers, professionals 57 ONS ASHE 2009 – full time median weekly pay. 54 - 32 - Evidence base to April 2011 Table 20: Economically active people in Croydon 2010/11 Croydon Croydon London (numbers) (%) (%) † Economically active In employment 186,600 174,000 147,900 † Employees† Self employed† Unemployed (model-based)§ 26,100 14,700 78.4 73.0 62.5 10.5 7.8 74.8 68.2 57.3 10.6 8.6 Great Britain (%) 76.2 70.3 60.8 9.0 7.6 In 2008/09 the percentage of economically inactive people wanting a job in Croydon increased to 9.6% of the working age population, higher than the London and the UK average. However, figures for 2010/11 show a significant decrease in this level to 5.7% lower than the London average and identical to the UK average rate. The proportion of Croydon’s adult population economically inactive and not wanting a job has declined slightly from 16.1% (34,700) in 2006/07 to 15.9% (36,900) in 2010/11, however, this is lower than the London and national average. Table 21 shows the change in the percentage of the economically inactive population who want a job over the past five years. Table 21: Economically inactive people wanting a job 2004-2011 (NOMIS) Croydon (No.) Croydon (%) London (%) Great Britain (%) Apr 04-Mar 05 Apr 05-Mar 06 Apr 06-Mar 07 Apr 07-Mar 08 Apr 08-Mar 09 Apr 09-Mar 10 Apr 10-Mar 11 13,400 14,000 13,000 16,000 20,900 11,300 13,300 6.1 6.4 5.8 7.0 9.1 4.8 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.0 6.4 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 Occupations The ONS carries out an annual survey of businesses which provides an estimate of the number of people employed in different employment sectors. In Croydon, the most significant employment sectors are wholesale and retail, public administration and health. Table 22 shows the numbers and percentages of people employed in Croydon compared to London and Great Britain, taken from ONS annual population survey data. Table 22: Croydon Employment Sectors 2010/11 (ONS) Soc 2000 major group 1-3 1 Managers and senior officials Croydon Croydon London Great (number) (%) (%) Britain (%) 90,300 52.4 55.7 44.8 36,100 20.8 17.8 15.7 - 33 - Evidence base to April 2011 2 Professional occupations 3 Associate professional & technical Soc 2000 major group 4-5 4 Administrative & secretarial 25,700 28,500 14.8 16.4 18.8 18.6 14.1 14.8 37,200 21.6 17.7 20.9 23,000 13.2 10.3 10.7 5 Skilled trades occupations Soc 2000 major group 6-7 14,200 8.2 7.2 10.2 26,100 15.1 13.4 16.3 6 Personal service occupations 7 Sales and customer service occs 14,500 8.3 7 8.8 11,600 6.7 6.3 7.4 Soc 2000 major group 8-9 8 Process plant & machine operatives 9 Elementary occupations 18,800 10.9 13.3 17.9 9,300 5.4 4.1 6.6 9,500 5.4 9 11.3 Qualifications Table 23 below shows the number and percentage of Croydon residents aged 16-64 and the level of qualifications they have attained, compared to the average for London and Great Britain. Table 23: Qualifications 2010 (ONS) Croydon (numbers) Croydon (%) London (%) Great Britain (%) NVQ4 and above 93,600 40.4 41.9 31.3 NVQ3 and above 132,800 57.3 55.7 51 NVQ2 and above 166,600 71.9 67.3 67.3 NVQ1 and above 198,400 85.6 76.3 80.2 Other qualifications 17,800 7.7 13.8 8.5 No qualifications 15,700 6.8 9.9 11.3 Earnings The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)58 shows median earnings for people working full time living in Croydon to be £29,808 and lower quartile earnings to be £21,833 , Table 24 shows the ASHE median and lower quartile earnings for full time employees in London and Croydon in 2010 compared to 2004. Table 24: Croydon and London median and lower quartile full time earnings 2004-2010 Median Lower quartile London 2010 £32,008 £22,977 Croydon 2010 £29,808 £21,833 London 2004 £27,046 £19,451 Croydon 2004 £25,321 £18,798 58 ONS ASHE 2009 & 2004 Table 8.7a Annual pay - Gross (£). - 34 - Evidence base to April 2011 Both median and lower quartile incomes in Croydon are lower than London as a whole Croydon’s 2002 housing need assessment estimated gross average household income to be £22,256 per annum and weekly net household income (including nonhousing benefits) to be £381 per week. Applying the increase in Croydon median earnings from the ASHE survey between 2002 and 2010 to these figures produces an average gross household income for 2009 of £27,000 and a weekly net household income of £462. The 2009 PayCheck dataset shows that 40 per cent of households in London had an unequivalised59 household income of between £15,000 and £35,000 per year. Just over three per cent of households had an income greater than £100k per annum. This is equivalent to more than 100,000 households60. Gross median household income in Croydon in 2010 was £30,48761. Figure 6 below shows the distribution of equivalised household income in Croydon in 2008. Significantly only 30,399 (21%) households in Croydon had incomes greater than £50,00062. 100+k 95-100k 90-95k 85-90k 80-85k 75-80k 70-75k 65-70k 60-65k 55-60k 50-55k 45-50k 40-45k 35-40k 30-35k 25-30k 20-25k 15-20k 10-15k 5-10k 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 0-5k Figure 8: CACI PayCheck 2008 household income distribution – Croydon In April 2010, 32,000 households in Croydon claimed housing benefit. Whereas 52% of housing association tenants and 66% of council tenants received housing benefit, a far higher proportion of private tenants (about 90%) claimed housing benefit. Housing needs assessment We commissioned ORS to undertake a local housing market assessment (LHMA) in 2008. The LHMA models the number of unsuitably housed households in borough, 59 Unequivalised household income is a measure that does not adjust the total annual income of a household to take account of the number of people in the household (see McClements scoring system). 60 DMAG Paycheck 2009 Update. 61 DMAG Paycheck 2010 Update 30-2010 December 2010. 62 2008 Paycheck Equivalised Income Data, DMAG (GLA). - 35 - Evidence base to April 2011 the “affordability gap” in market housing in Croydon and estimates how much housing is needed to meet housing need by size and tenure taking into account the affects of the 2008 ‘credit crunch’ and subsequent recession. Croydon’s housing market is part of traditional north-south flow from Inner South London to Surrey. By modelling criteria such as income, house prices, the Index of Multiple Deprivation, Census data and other sources it is possible to predict how many households are unsuitably housed. In Croydon 22.2% of households (equating to over 30,000 households) are estimated to be unsuitably housed mostly in the north of the borough (28.5% unsuitably housed) and in New Addington (32.2% unsuitably housed). However only 4,000 of these households are likely to be in housing need as other households could either afford to move themselves or to make the necessary changes to their current homes. ORS found there is sufficient private rented housing for households with incomes between £30,000 and £40,000, however, it was suggested this group may be interested in opportunities for shared ownership. Households require an income of £40,000 per year or more to be able to purchase a home on the open market affordably. There is also a lack of properties for households earning between £20,000 and £30,000 and Croydon needs to provide more intermediate rent and shared ownership opportunities for this group. - 36 - Evidence base to April 2011 LHMA housing requirement Table 25 below sets out an estimate of the number of future households that will require affordable, intermediate and market housing between 2009 and 2031 in Croydon Table 25: Housing requirement – Croydon 2009 to 2031 TOTAL Market housing 18,653 Intermedia te Housing 1,902 Affordable Housing 7,514 TOTAL % 28,069 100% Key issues: the demographic drivers of housing need The key demographic issues for the housing strategy are that London and Croydon’s population is expected to continue to grow and that smaller and single person households will become more prevalent. The age profile of the population will also change and so will its diversity. These changes will affect the demand and need for housing and housing related services in different ways: The expected increase in the number of households, 14,000 between 2006 and 2016, will increase Croydon’s overall housing requirements. The projected increase in single person households by 2016 will increase demand for smaller sized housing. The projected increase in lone parent and BME households will also increase housing need and the requirement for affordable, family sized housing. The expected changes to the age structure will increase demand for retirement housing, for private sector renewal assistance and particularly for energy efficiency measures, and for community alarms and telecare to help older people manage independently within their homes. In addition there is a significant unmet need for wheelchair adapted housing. - 37 - Evidence base to April 2011 Key issues: housing affordability Market housing both to buy and rent is cheaper in Croydon than London overall. However, there is still a significant affordability problem that has got worse over the past ten years despite the effects of the credit crunch and economic downturn. Household incomes in Croydon are also lower than London overall and are insufficient to allow access to market housing for many households. Indicators of housing stress, particularly mortgage possessions, show that many households are barely holding on to market housing and are vulnerable to the impact of fluctuations in the economy and reductions in household income. The key affordability issues for the housing strategy are as follows: House prices, including “entry level” prices, have more than doubled in Croydon over the past ten years. Following the recession, house prices increased in London with “double digit” house price inflation reported by the Land Registry in April 2010. However, 2011 has seen average (median) house prices fall back. House prices are significantly cheaper in Croydon than London as a whole; 27% cheaper at average (median) prices and 23% cheaper at the entry level. “Entry level” house prices are eight times lower quartile earnings, although this is still below the high of more than 9 times earnings seen in 2007. Croydon benefits from house prices that are cheaper than the London average; however, Croydon’s housing market has been affected by the same pressures as the rest of London and south-east England leading to housing, including “entry level” housing, becoming less and less affordable. House prices are likely to be driven upwards by a continued shortage of supply to the market compared to demand and by historically low interest rates. On the other hand restricted mortgage lending, higher deposits, cuts in public sector jobs and low wage inflation could limit the scope for house price inflation in the immediate short term. A household looking to buy an entry level one bedroom property in Croydon would need an income of at least £43,062 per year, and £74,672 to buy and entry level 3 bedroom property. Median household income in Croydon was £30,487 in 2010. Only 14% of households in Croydon have incomes in excess of £60,000. Entry level rents in the private rental sector in Croydon range from £3,600 per year for shared accommodation, £7,800 for 1 bed accommodation and between £10,000 and £15,000 for family sized (3 bedroom accommodation or larger). Entry level rents to the private sector would require households to earn between £12,000 per year for shared accommodation, £26,000 per year for 1 bed accommodation and between £33,300 and £50,000 per year for family sized accommodation (3 bedroom accommodation or larger) to be “affordable” (i.e. to represent not more than 30% of gross household earnings63) The private rented sector plays a vital role in providing accommodation for households where home ownership and social renting are not an option e.g. students, people on housing benefit, younger households unable to yet afford home ownership, those in transition due to family break up and recent migrants. LHA rates clearly show private sector rents in Croydon are more expensive than 63 London Councils alternative “affordability” ratio based on CLG SHMA guidance published in 2007. - 38 - Evidence base to April 2011 the rest of England, which is unsurprising, but also that they are slightly lower then the outer London average. The London Rents Map shows a very similar picture and also shows that there is some divergence in rents charged across the borough - 39 - Evidence base to April 2011 BUILDINGS AND PLACES 1. OPTIMISING THE SUPPLY OF NEW HOUSING Government housing policy immediately after the Second World War focused on tackling the housing shortage. Between 1949 and 1978 local authorities built an average of 150,000 new homes a year and exceeded 200,000 new homes during the 1950s. As a result a crude balance between the number of households and the number of dwellings in the country was achieved by the end of the 1970’s. Since then, however, private sector house building has failed to keep pace with housing requirements64 and local authorities have not been in a position to fill the gap. The 1980s saw local authorities required to adopt an “enabling” rather than a direct provider role. Housing associations were given the responsibility, tools and resources to develop affordable housing. Housing associations were provided with Housing Association Grant (HAG) by the Housing Corporation to develop new affordable housing, given freedom from “fair rent” requirements and had the ability to “lever in” private borrowing to make public subsidy go further. In recent years local authorities and private developers have been able to become registered providers and bid for social housing grant to build affordable housing and a trickle of new council housing supply has emerged as a result. The key point however, is since 1979 housing associations and local authorities have produced on average only 39,000 new homes per year. For areas with high housing demand and limited capacity, like Croydon, there is a balance to be struck between attempting to maximise new housing supply to meet demand and providing the jobs, services, facilities, culture and open spaces that contribute to making somewhere an attractive place to live. Current planning policy requires local authorities to ensure new housing supply is well-designed, built to a high standard and achieves the required mix of tenure and price capable of supporting a wide variety of households. New developments should be in suitable locations, which offer a good range of community facilities and with good access to jobs, key services and infrastructure. And these decisions and arrangements should be based on a robust and reliable evidence base. This section of looks at the delivery of new housing in Croydon. It looks at the current housing stock in Croydon, how the tenure mix has changed and the extent and distribution of social housing. It goes on to look at Croydon’s record in housing development and the delivery of affordable housing and then looks at the capacity for future residential growth. It then summarises plans for delivery of infrastructure to support the plans for growth in the borough. Housing stock Over the forty years from 1961 to 2001 the dwelling stock in England increased by half, from 14 million to over 21 million. Since 2001 increases in the dwelling stock 64 Sustainable communities – building for the future, ODPM (2003) - 40 - Evidence base to April 2011 have been relatively modest compared to previous decades. There were an estimated 22,693,000 dwellings in England as at 31 March 2010, an increase of 0.57 per cent on the previous year65. In Croydon there were an estimated 149,700 dwellings in the borough as at 31st March 2010 (an increase of 0.9% on the previous year), the largest borough dwelling stock in London. Housing tenure Housing tenure in England has changed significantly over the course of the 20th Century with owner occupation increasing dramatically, and private renting decreasing equally significantly. After the First World War social renting became an increasingly important tenure in meeting housing need. In 1914 only 10% of households were owner occupiers, while 90% rented from a private landlord and only 20,000 rented from a local authority or new town corporation (0.3% of all households)66. In 2009/10, however, owner occupation was the largest tenure in England, accounting for 67.4% of all households, despite seeing a slight decline from its peak of 70.9% in 200367. Social renting was the second largest housing tenure at 17.4% with private renting in third place accounting for 15.6% of the stock. Croydon’s tenure profile has developed in a very similar way to England but, compared to London, Croydon has a relatively small social housing sector. Over the past thirty years it has changed in line with the national trend, with owner occupation increasing to over 70% in 1991 and private renting decreasing to 10%. Table 26 below shows Croydon’s tenure profile over the past 30 years from census data. Table 26: Housing tenure (Census) 1971 1981 1991 2001 Total Owner-occupied Social rented 112,900 114,580 124,850 138,996 64,500 74,145 90,867 95,523 19,975 24,671 20,692 23,338 57.10% 64.70% 72.80% 68.70% 17.70% 21.50% 16.60% 16.80% Private rented 28,020 15,764 13,291 20,135 24.80% 13.80% 10.60% 14.50% Social rented housing In 2009/10 social rented housing was the second largest tenure in England, accommodating 3.7 million (17.0% of) households68. In 2008 Croydon’s local authority and housing association rented housing made up 17% of dwellings, slightly less than the national average. Table 27 shows the most recent count of the borough’s housing stock, broken down into public housing (council, housing association and ‘other’) and private housing (private rented and owner occupied). 65 Dwelling Stock Estimates: 2010, England, CLG (November 2010). British Social Trends Since 1900 – A Guide to the Changing Social Structure of Britain, Halsey A.H. (ed.), Macmillan (1988). 67 English Housing Survey – Headline report 2009/10 68 English Housing Survey – Headline report 2009/10 66 - 41 - Evidence base to April 2011 Table 27: Croydon dwelling stock (HSSA) 2011 2005 2001 1995 Local Authority Housing Association 'Other' public sector Private sector 14,024 14,237 15,233 16,353 10,347 8,898 8,221 6,655 18 100 89 174 122,011 115,697 113,314 110,664 Total 146,400 138,932 136,857 133,846 The number of social rented homes in Croydon has increased by 1363 over the 16 years from 1995 to 2011, from 23,008 homes in 1995 to 24,371 in 2011. The right to buy policy and housing associations being funded to develop new social rented housing has resulted in a redistribution of social homes between the two types of landlord. 71% of social housing in 1995 was owned by the council, falling to 58% in 2011, with the housing association share increasing accordingly. The impact of the right to buy on social housing Since the introduction of the right to buy in 1980 the council has sold more than 10,000 social rented homes to sitting tenants69. In recent years limits to discounts, increases in house prices and tighter mortgage lending criteria has seen right to buy sales fall to single figures70. Figure 9 below shows the level of right to buy sales compared to the size of the council housing stock over the past ten years. Reductions in the social housing stock from right to buy sales have largely been replaced by housing associations building new social rented homes and very recently by the council’s own new build programme. 69 Local authority stock sold through right-to-buy and other council house sales, by district and region, Table 648, (CLG). Source: Returns (P1B) from local authorities to CLG. 70 Five dwellings were sold under the Right to Buy in Croydon in 2009/10. - 42 - Evidence base to April 2011 15,400 1,000 15,200 900 15,000 800 14,800 700 14,600 600 14,400 500 14,200 400 14,000 300 13,800 200 13,600 100 13,400 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 201001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 dwellings sold dwellings Figure 9: Council housing stock and right to buy sales 2000 to 2011 0 Council stock 15,235 14,99314,725 14,412 14,237 14,18014,136 14,043 14,020 14,04514,024 249 RTB sales 259 242 324 164 39 46 38 4 5 12 Spatial distribution of social housing Figure 10 below shows the distribution of social rented housing in Croydon with concentrations evident in the north and the eastern edge of the borough. Fieldway and New Addington wards have the highest proportions of social housing, with 57% and 40% respectively. The lowest proportions of social housing are found in Selsdon and Ballards, and Coulsdon West wards with 2.6% and 6.7% respectively. Figure 10: Social housing distribution in Croydon (Census) UPPER NORWOOD NORBURY A23 SOUTH NORWOOD THORNTON HEATH BENSHAM MANOR WEST THORNTON WOODSIDE A2 12 SELHURST ASHBURTON Percentage of households ADDISCOMBE BROAD GREEN SHIRLEY EAST CROYDON STATION A2 32 0% 2% 4% 8% 15% 30% Fairfield Halls FAIRFIELD A232 WADDON HEATHFIELD CROHAM FIELDWAY A23 SELSDON & BALLARDS PURLEY NEW ADDINGTON SANDERSTEAD A2 2 A23 COULSDON WEST KENLEY COULSDON EAST - 43 - to 2% to 4% to 8% to 15% to 30% or more Evidence base to April 2011 Private rented housing The private rented sector still plays a necessary role in providing housing for households for whom home ownership and social renting may not be options e.g. students, people on housing benefit, younger households unable to yet afford home ownership, those in transition due to family break up, recent migrants. There is no regular survey of the number of privately rented dwellings other than the census; however, the 2002 housing needs survey, based on a 1% survey of the housing stock, estimated the number to be 19,200. Bearing in mind the growth of the private sector since 2002, we now estimate the number to have risen to 19,500. Housing development - all tenures House building in England steadily increased after the Second World War and peaked in 1968 with 353,000 new homes being completed. Most of these were built by private enterprise, however, more that 4 in ten were built by the social housing sector, primarily by local authorities. Since the peak in 1968 house building has declined, and averaged just over 145,000 in first decade of the 21st century. Since 1991 housing associations have played the major role in social housing development, accounting for 99 per cent of social sector completions in 2009. Figure 11 below shows the relative contribution of private enterprise, housing associations and local authorities to the provision of new homes in England from immediately after the Second World War to 2010. The chart clearly shows the rapid decline in local authority housebuilding after 1979. Figure 11: Housebuilding England 1946-201071 Permanent dwellings completed 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Private enterprise 71 Housing associations Table 241 House building: permanent dwellings completed, by tenure - 44 - 2009 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970 1967 1964 1961 1958 1955 1952 1949 0 Local authorities Evidence base to April 2011 Housing development in Croydon Over the past seven years Croydon the housing stock has increased by, on average 1,120 additional dwellings per year. In total more than 7,840 new homes have been added72. Table 28 shows the number of net additional dwellings delivered in London and Croydon between 2004/5 and 2010/11. Table 28: Net additions to the dwelling stock73 2004-05 London Croydon 22,890 660 2005-06 24,860 670 2006-07 2007-08 26,940 1,030 27,570 1,460 2008-09 28,300 1,530 2009-10 24,340 1,370 2010-11 17,830 1,120 New housing completions in Croydon Table 29 shows the contribution of new housing to the increase in the dwelling stock over the past seven years in the form of housing completions. In 2009/10 Croydon produced the third highest number of new housing completions in London, increased the housing stock by a net 1,370 net additional “conventional” homes in 2009/10, of which 347 were long term empty homes brought back into use. In 2010/11 Croydon completed a more modest 480 new dwellings, the 9th highest level of completions in London. Table 29: House building - New dwellings completed 2004/5 to 2010/1174 England London Croydon 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 155,890 24,060 390 163,400 18,810 400 167,680 22,760 850 167,770 22,550 1,150 134,110 19,220 750 113,670 19,470 1,100 106,050 17,810 480 New housing starts in Croydon The 2008 credit crunch, the subsequent economic downturn, housing market stagnation and more restricted mortgage lending have had an effect on new housing development in Croydon. This is most clearly seen in figures showing the number of new dwellings started and under construction in the borough, than in housing completions. Table 30 below shows the number of new dwellings started in England, London and Croydon over past seven years and the effect of the credit crunch and recession can clearly be seen in the reduction of the number of starts in 2008/09 and 2009/10. However, the number of new dwellings started in 2010/11 has increased in England and in London compared to the previous two years, however, the figures for Croydon show a continued decline. 72 Net additions measure the absolute increase in stock between one year and the next, including other losses and gains (such as conversions, changes of use and demolitions).Source - Housing Flows Reconciliation (HFR), the Greater London Authority and Regional Assembly joint returns. 73 74 Table 122: Net additional dwellings by LA district (CLG) Table 253: House building – new dwellings started and completed by LA district (CLG). - 45 - Evidence base to April 2011 Table 30: House building - New dwellings started 2004/5 to 2010/1175 England London Croydon 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 174,310 24,530 480 183,360 24,120 1,460 170,320 19,450 1,100 163,370 20,170 1,120 2008-09 80,580 13,140 560 2009-10 87,690 12,560 500 2010-11 103,690 17,050 310 Affordable housing delivery Table 31 below shows the number of affordable dwellings completed by housing associations and the council in Croydon over the past four years. Table 31: Affordable housing completions 2006-201176 Council social rent 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 HA social rent Housing association inter-mediate rent Housing association shared ownership Total 1 0 0 27 213 358 262 486 15 16 91 26 138 213 109 204 367 587 462 743 0 114 0 38 152 Empty homes Empty homes Council tax data indicates that 1,664 private sector homes had been vacant for more than 6 months in April 2011, 1.36% of the private stock. In comparison there are only 18 council homes 0.01% of the stock which a have been vacant for more than six months, pending refurbishment. An audit in April 2010 identified that 663 empty private homes were particularly problematic because their owners do not have plans or the ability to return the properties to use. Figure 12 below shows that 39% of these empty properties are concentrated in Croydon metropolitan centre and environs, and 39% in North Croydon, in particular in Fairfield, Selhurst and South Norwood wards which account for almost one third. 44% are two bedroom properties, 29% have three bedrooms and 18% have one bedroom. 75 76 Table 253: House building – new dwellings started and completed by LA district (CLG). Source: Housing strategy statistical appendix (CLG) - 46 - Evidence base to April 2011 Figure 12: Distribution of long-term empty homes, 2010 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed Coulsdon East Fieldway Sanderstead Broad Green New Addington Kenley Selsdon and Ballards Ashburton Heathfield Coulsdon West Shirley Woodside Croham Upper Norwood Norbury Addiscombe Purley Bensham Manor Waddon West Thornton Thornton Heath Selhurst South Norwood 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Fairfield Vacant homes Long term vacant homes by ward April 2010 5 bed+ Future housing requirement The key driver for our future housing development is population growth. It is estimated Croydon’s population will increase from 339,000 today to nearly 380,000 by 2031. Different parts of Croydon will see different rates of growth with the largest increase in Croydon’s Metropolitan Centre and its surrounding areas. It is expected there will be smaller increases in the south of the borough, the north is projected to see a slight decline and the east will stay about the same. The population will continue to become more diverse, with more than half of the Borough’s population coming from a Black or Minority Ethnic Group by 2031. The Core Strategy sets out our plans to meet the housing needs of this growing population. The Local Housing Market assessment estimates that 33,800 new homes are required in Croydon between 2007 and 2031. This represents an annual requirement of 1,408 new homes. The size and tenure mix of the remaining housing requirement after subtracting the housing already built in 2007 and 2008 is set out in Table 31 below. Table 32: Housing requirement – Croydon 2009 to 2031 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4 bedrooms Market housing 2,603 1,777 9,238 4,181 Intermediate Housing 815 823 264 0 - 47 - Affordable Housing 3,206 1,478 2,001 673 TOTAL 6,624 4,078 11,504 4,854 % 23% 15% 41% 17% Evidence base to April 2011 5+ bedroom 854 0 156 1,010 TOTAL 18,653 1,902 7,514 28,069 Source: London Borough of Croydon ORS LHMA 2009 (2031 High) 4% 100% What is our land capacity for housing development? The council expects more than 4,000 new homes to be built in Croydon between 2011 and 2016, based on planning permissions already granted, which will meet our London Plan housing targets. Looking at the longer term, the London Plan expects Croydon to deliver 13,300 new homes by 2021. Croydon’s metropolitan centre (CMC) has the greatest potential for residential development, and the core strategy expects 7,000 of the 20,200 new homes to be built by 2031, to be built in the CMC. We are well on the way to meeting our current London Plan housing target, however, we still need to identify more land for residential development to meet housing demand up to 2031. The GLA Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) identified 200ha of land over 0.25ha in size in the borough; however, realistically not all of that land will be used for residential development. Our estimate is that small sites will produce 5,500 new homes outside the CMC to 2031. We also estimate the Croydon Metropolitan Centre can provide a further 7,000 new homes to 2031. More than three quarters of residential development over the next five years will come from sites currently under construction or from fifteen larger sites across the borough with planning permission for new homes. Altogether we estimate the borough can accommodate 20,200 new homes as and still retain sufficient open space and land for commercial development. - 48 - Evidence base to April 2011 Figure 13: the location of future housing development in Croydon INFRASTRUCTURE – MAKING GREAT PLACES The Infrastructure Delivery Plan (IDP) identifies the hard, social and green infrastructure we need to support and underpin Croydon’s growth through to 2031. It also forms part of the evidence base for our Local Development Framework (LDF). Infrastructure means physical or hard infrastructure such as utilities and transport; green infrastructure such as parks, open spaces and the natural environment; and social infrastructure such as schools, health facilities and other public services. The IDP is key to ensuring that Croydon grows in a sustainable way, providing not just homes and jobs but all the other elements that collectively make great places in which to live, work and spend time. The learning city Critical to the success of the plans for growth in Croydon are our proposals for expanding our education provision. We plan to deliver 10 forms of entry (FE) permanent primary expansion by September 2012. These are made up of: a new 4FE school; and 1FE permanent expansion to 6 of the 8 primary schools listed in below: - A new primary school in the growth area at the Davidson Centre (4 FE) - 1FE expansion - Aerodrome Primary - 49 - Evidence base to April 2011 - 1FE expansion - Benson Primary - 1FE expansion - David Livingstone - 1FE expansion – Monks Orchard Primary - 1FE expansion - Heavers Farm Primary - 1FE expansion - Purley Oaks - 1FE expansion - Downsview Primary - 1FE expansion - Spring Park By 2016 a total of an extra 10 secondary school forms of entry (FE) is likely to be needed in Croydon. Funding for delivering the growth in secondary capacity has yet to be identified for the following reasons. Firstly, the education estates strategy to determine how the 10 FE secondary provision required in the north and central parts of the borough will be provided, is currently being developed and will be presented to Cabinet towards the end of 2011. Secondly, the Department for Education recently announced its “priority school building programme” which sets out the process of how it will prioritise and allocate capital funding to address schools with the worst building condition and provision of pressing cases for basic need (the requirement of additional school places). This is based on the review completed by Sebastian James earlier this year. Expressions of interest are to be submitted by mid October 2011 and the Department aims to announce the schools that qualify for the first batch of the programme by December 2011. The identification of the funding streams along with the projects to be decided by Cabinet towards the end of the year, will determine the capital programme for the permanent expansion of Croydon’s secondary schools estate by 10 forms of entry. The enterprising city programme The core strategy and the LDF play key roles in ensuring Croydon maintains a healthy growing economy with an adaptable and skilled workforce, an innovative and enterprising business culture and a modern and efficient economic infrastructure that will nurture, attract and retain businesses and economic activity in Croydon. The enterprising city programme includes plans to develop an enhanced digital infrastructure in the borough. It also includes identify the role that the council should take to encourage enterprise and to take this forward we will: • Continue to build intelligence from the Economic Strategy Refresh and the Employment Land Study, and subsequent studies. • Identify where master plans / development proposals can help develop the small business sector. The Core Strategy identifies a number of ‘Proposed Enterprise Centres’. These are centres that can encourage employment growth, especially in the knowledge and creative sectors. These include Crystal Palace, Portland Road, Purley and Croydon Metropolitan Centre. • Work with business support organisations such as Jobcentre Plus and Business Link to provide ‘softer’ help to businesses, whilst engaging with the private sector to improve the supply of suitable business space. A creative city Croydon often suffers from its reputation as a 1960s town with little cultural merit. However, behind this superficial image, the borough has been a breeding ground for - 50 - Evidence base to April 2011 some of the country’s most exciting artistic talent. The Brit school, Britain’s only free performing arts and technology school, is based in Croydon and we estimate ten percent of our local economy works in the creative sector. We have undertaken research into the needs of the creative cultural sector and into our library needs to provide for our future population growth and this will guide our future investment strategy. We will develop the Fairfield Halls and a full business case will be prepared as the next step with major works planned to start in 2014/15. We are in the process of developing a new leisure facility in Waddon to meet demand arising from Croydon town centre. Connected city programme We want to encourage smarter travel in Croydon by fostering changes in behaviour, encouraging a shift away from car use and towards more active travel. We have developed a borough wide Transport Strategy, and we are also studying in more detail the transport and accessibility needs of the central area in a specific CMC Transport Study. One of our priorities is to increase the capacity of East and West Croydon stations and we also need reduce overcrowding on the Tramlink network by investment in the travelling stock and improving tram stops. In the medium term, the capacity of the track in the central area will need to be increased and in the longer term we will consider extending the network to Mitcham, Sutton and Bromley, and within Croydon towards London, Purley and Coulsdon. Sustainable city programme Green infrastructure includes parks, open spaces, playing fields, woodlands, allotments and private gardens. In 2009 an Open Space Needs and Outdoor Recreation Needs report was prepared for the Council. The report identified over 50% of the Borough’s residential areas as being more than 400m from a local park or green amenity space and therefore, having little or no close access to recreational open space. These deficiencies are particularly pronounced in the North of the Borough, in areas such as, East Croydon, Thornton Heath and Broad Green. Population increases, particularly in the CMC and north of the Borough will heighten the need to protect existing local park facilities and to secure opportunities for new publicly accessible open space wherever practicable. Therefore the requirement is to focus on providing a connected network of spaces to provide green infrastructure, particularly in the areas of growth and deficit in the north and centre of the borough whilst ensuring that significant natural spaces located within the south or the borough are safeguarded. The backbone of this work will be to create a network of greenways, connecting green spaces through regeneration programmes such as the ‘Parks to be Proud Of’ programme. We plan to counteract urban heating by increasing tree cover and identifying areas where focused tree planting can be implemented and retrofitting of green roofs prioritised. These areas will be specifically targeted in locations of need and in development intensification areas. The Council has commissioned a study of future requirements for burial sites and the draft recommendations estimate a need for 6500 spaces for the period to 2031 with additional land required to meet that demand. The Mayor requires at least 25% of London’s energy needs to be provided by low carbon and decentralised energy sources by 2025. We will make provision for - 51 - Evidence base to April 2011 district energy schemes and other energy sources including solar photovoltaic, wind and other forms of renewable energy generation. Key Issues – Housing stock and tenure Croydon has the 13th lowest proportion of social rented housing stock in London (2008) and less capacity to meet housing need. Croydon has a relatively large owner-occupied sector and its proportion has increased over the past 40 years in line with the national trend. A contraction at the margins in the owner-occupied sector as a result of tougher lending criteria for mortgage finance and a smaller more exclusive home ownership market will have implications for other sectors including social housing77. Since 1991, Croydon’s private rented housing has increased, partly through growth in overall supply and partly at the expense of owner-occupied housing (which has declined) as a result of buy to let investment. This trend within the private market is likely to continue over the next decade enhancing the role of the private rented sector. More than 10,000 social rented homes have been bought by Croydon tenants under the right to buy since 1980. Development of new social housing has maintained the proportion of social rented housing in Croydon at 17% of the stock for the past 20 years. The National Housing and Planning Advice Unit (NHPAU) argued that the overall effect of the economic downturn, the restrictions in mortgage finance and decrease in house building starts, could be to worsen the affordability crisis in the longer term and prevent households getting on the property ladder. The NHPAU picked out increasing the rate of supply as the overriding priority for improving housing affordability. Key issues: housing supply According to a full local housing market assessment (LHMA) undertaken in 2008, Croydon requires more than 27,000 new homes between 2009 and 2031. The supply of homes has been falling, a trend likely to continue as a result of the economic downturn and reduction in the national affordable housing programme: the number of homes started on site in 2009/10 (874) was only half the level in the previous year. This rate applied equally to private sector and affordable housing. An estimated 500 Croydon people who use wheelchairs have unmet housing needs; some of this need can be met through efficient allocation of existing accessible homes and through adaptations, but some must be met through new homes which comply with wheelchair-accessible or lifetime home standards. 77 Williams. P Home Ownership – Where now? In Housing markets and policy Malpass and Rowlands (Ed) (Routledge 2010). - 52 - Evidence base to April 2011 2. MAINTAINING AND IMPROVING OUR EXISTING HOUSING Our existing homes are an increasingly valuable resource. They play a vital role in meeting housing need now and will continue to do so far into the future. It is estimated that existing housing will make up at least 75% of the housing stock in 205078. Good quality housing provides more than our basic need for shelter and warmth. It allows young people to grow and develop in healthy surroundings; it provides a safe, secure place for people to rest and recharge; and with sufficient space it allows people of all ages to study, think and learn. At the right price or rent it is a platform for economic self sufficiency and to plan and provide for the future. In successful neighbourhoods where people look out for each other and take decisions collectively and take pride in their area, it makes people want to stay, to put down roots, to bring up a family and invest in the future. It is easy to see how good quality housing contributes to so many of the improvements we want to see socially and economically. It is equally easy to see how poor quality housing has a detrimental effect on health and well-being, disproportionately affects vulnerable households living in deprived areas and holds back progress in tackling social economic and health inequalities. The origins of government intervention to improve housing go back to the 19th century and concerns about public health from overcrowding and from unsanitary housing conditions. Housing policy immediately after the Second World War tackled housing shortage and poor housing conditions through a programme of demolition and comprehensive redevelopment. However, from the latter part of the 1960s onwards the approach changed to area based improvement programmes. The extent of state intervention to tackle private sector housing conditions has gradually reduced over the past thirty years, with mandatory responsibilities being replaced with discretionary powers, grants replaced by loans, and the introduction of means testing79. Local authorities have been encouraged to place private sector renewal within an overall strategic approach to tackling area based disadvantage. Social housing condition became a priority for local authorities with the introduction of the decent homes target80 which aimed to tackle a £19bn backlog in repairs by 2010. Local authorities were required to make a 30 year commitment by 2004 (backed up by a tenant’s vote and a “fit for purpose” housing strategy and business plan) to achieving and maintaining the decent homes standard with the necessary funding provided either through their own resources, the private finance initiative, stock transfer or setting up an arms length management organisation (ALMO), and thereby qualifying for government funding (subject to a 2* inspection rating). The new TSA Home standard includes a requirement to maintain homes at this standard. Council housing finance is to be reformed. The Localism Bill includes measures to replace the housing revenue account (HRA) subsidy system with a self-financing 78 Stock Take’: Delivering improvements in existing housing, Sustainable Development Commission (2006) 79 Through the 1989 Local Government and Housing Act. 80 Quality and Choice: A decent home for all – The way forward for housing (2000) - 53 - Evidence base to April 2011 alternative in April 2012. This is significant as in Croydon we have retained the ownership of our housing stock. The aim is to give local authorities the resources and flexibility to manage and maintain their housing stock for the long term and to provide a more transparent system through which tenants can hold their landlords to account for the rents they charge and the services they provide. Under the current system some local authorities, including Croydon, make a subsidy payment into the national housing subsidy system (known as “negative subsidy”) whilst others receive a payment from it. In 2011/12 Croydon’s negative subsidy payment will be £16m. Self-financing requires local authorities to make a one-off settlement payment to central government in respect of their historic housing debt, in return for being able to keep council rent revenue and use it to manage and maintain their council housing stock. The government’s ‘settlement valuation’ is based on assumptions about each local authority’s income and expenditure over 30 years. The government will publish self-financing determinations in January 2012 and the council will set its budget and agree its borrowing in February 2012. At that stage we will know the resources available for building new homes and maintaining our stock. We have as a nation legally binding commitments through the Kyoto Protocol and the Climate Change Act 2008 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 24% of the UK’s carbon dioxide emissions are generated by the UK domestic building stock81. Existing homes vary widely in terms of their resource efficiency and overall contribute more than a quarter of all CO2 emissions. The Government has also set a target to eradicate fuel poverty across England, as far as reasonably practicable, in vulnerable82 households by 2010 (which has not been met) and in all households by 201683. The London Mayor’s Draft Climate Change Mitigation and Energy Strategy sets a target to reduce London’s CO2 emissions from all sources by 60 per cent against 1990 levels by 2025. By 2030 all existing homes should be retrofitted with energy efficiency measures and have the potential to generate electricity. The Croydon Climate Change Mitigation Action Plan has set CO2 reduction targets for domestic housing of 5% by 2015 and 34% by 2025 from the 2005 baseline. The Green Deal, included in the government’s Energy Bill, currently before Parliament, will enable the installation of energy efficiency measures from late 2012 without requiring public funding or upfront investment by householders. The capital cost will be repaid through a monthly charge based on fuel bill savings, which could be collected by the Council. The provision of capital to fund the measures will act as an incentive to private landlords to invest. The 'Green Deal' also introduces an Energy Company Obligation to focus help on low income vulnerable households and domestic properties where energy efficiency works are more expensive. 81 Energy Bill Impact Assessment: Green Deal, Department of Energy and Climate Change (2010) p12 For the purposes of fuel poverty, ‘vulnerable households’ are defined as those containing elderly or disabled people, children, or the long-term sick. 83 The UK Fuel Poverty Strategy, DTI, November 2001. 82 - 54 - Evidence base to April 2011 Local authorities have made some inroads into poor housing conditions in the private rented sector by assisting vulnerable households to bring their housing up to the decent homes standard. However, fitting energy saving heating and insulation to the least efficient housing is still a priority. Allowing homes to stand empty and unused when so many households are in housing need is widely recognised as a scandalous waste of resources, particularly when so many households are still in housing need. Bringing empty properties back into use has been a priority for local authorities for a number of years and there are a wide range of powers to tackle the problem up to and including compulsory purchase. This section looks at the condition of council, housing association, owner-occupied and private rented housing in Croydon. It also looks at progress towards achieving the decent homes standard, tackling fuel poverty and improving energy efficiency. Decent homes Council housing In April 2002, 42% of Croydon’s council homes failed the decent homes standard, a smaller proportion than the London average of 52% and the 12 th lowest level of nondecent homes in the capital. Since 2002 the council has invested more than £80 million in achieving the decent homes standard. In April 2011 100% of Croydon’s council housing met the decent home standard. Figure 14 below shows Croydon’s decent homes performance compared to London boroughs between 2002 and 2011. Figure 14: Percentage of non-decent homes The Percentage of Non-Decent Homes 100% Upper Quartile 90% Mid Quartile Mid Quartile 80% Lower Quartile 70% Croydon 60% 50% 42% 40% 38% 30% 23% 20% 17% 20% 10% 10% 8% 4% 0% 0% 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 - 55 - 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Evidence base to April 2011 Table 33 below sets out the detail decent homes activity undertaken in 2010/11. Table 33: Decent Homes – Croydon 2011 Non-decent dwellings tackled during 2010/11 Dwellings received work to prevent non decency in 2010/11 811 Dwellings becoming non decent during 2010/11* 3859 Number of non decent dwellings at 1 April 2011 261 0 (0%) Cost to make all dwellings decent at 1 April 2011 £0.0m Despite the fact that all council homes met the decent home standard in April 2011, significant resources would be required to prevent dwellings from becoming nondecent. Table 34 shows the change in the expenditure made to make all non-decent dwellings decent during 2010/11. Table 34: Decent Homes – expenditure to make all dwellings decent (2011) Money spent making dwellings decent in 2010/11 £000s Money spent preventing dwellings becoming non-decent in 2010/11 £000s Costs arising from dwellings becoming non-decent in 2010/11 £000s Cost to make all dwellings decent at 1/4/2011 £000s 9485 1171 286 0 The council’s housing investment programme The council modernised 5,557 homes between 2002 and 2011 Extensions and de-conversions: extended 13 homes Housing association housing In April 2011 99.9% of housing association homes in Croydon met the decent homes standard. This is ahead of the national forecast which expected 95% of social housing to meet the standard by 201084. According to our local housing association survey, four associations have a total of 14 non-decent homes as at April 2011. The 2009/10 English Housing Survey found potentially serious (Category 1) hazards as measured under the Housing Health and Safety Rating System are present in around 191,000 housing association homes in England in 2009, 9.7% of the housing association stock85. In Croydon only 686 properties (out of 10,347 housing association homes) have category 1 hazards87. Private sector housing Croydon has the largest private housing sector in London with 122,011 homes. 83% are owner-occupied and 17% private rented. Most of the borough’s private housing is 84 Decent homes committee report English Housing Survey – Headline Report 2009/10 86 HSSA 2011 87 Housing Health and Safety Rating System Guidance for Landlords and Property Related Professionals, Communities and Local Government (May 2006) see http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si2005/20053208.htm 85 - 56 - Evidence base to April 2011 in good condition; however, a significant proportion is in poor condition. The worst housing conditions in the borough are found in the private sector. In 2005, BRE (formerly the Building Research Establishment) carried out a study of stock condition in Croydon, using modelled data from the English House Condition Survey and the 2001 census, and updated it in 2007 and 2008. The key findings of the 2008 update are as follows: 10% (11,397) of private housing is in disrepair 17% (20,086) of private housing has category 1 hazards under the HHSRS 24% (28,370) of private housing provides inadequate thermal comfort 6% (6,695) of private housing lack modern facilities 37% (42,973) of private housing fails the decent home standard The estimated cost of removing all private sector category 1 hazards is £227m88. Table 35 below shows the percentage by reason for failing the decent homes standard in the different housing tenures from the English House Condition Survey Table 35: Housing conditions: reasons for failing decent homes, England, 2008 Category 1 HHSRS % Thermal comfort % Repair % 9.5 16.8 10.9 Modern facilities & services % 2.4 4.5 2.8 5.5 9.4 6.3 All non decent % 29.3 40.8 31.5 Owner-occupied Private rented All private 20.8 27.1 22.0 Local authority HOUSING ASSOCIATION All social All tenures 13.4 9.7 8.2 7.5 6.5 2.3 6.5 3.8 27.1 19.7 11.5 20.2 7.8 10.4 4.3 3.1 5.1 6.1 23.2 30.1 Table 36 shows private rented dwellings as being the most likely to be non-decent and to have category 1 hazards. Local authorities have a statutory duty to deal with category 1 hazards under the Housing Act 200489. Approximately one third of private sector housing in Croydon and England fails the decent home standard (37% and 32% respectively). However, there are significant differences in the reasons for failing the standard. Whereas the main reason in England is the presence of category 1 hazards (22% of cases, compared with 17% in Croydon), the main reason in Croydon is the lack of thermal comfort (24%, compared with 11% in England). An explanation of the difference is likely to lie in the age and type of construction of housing stock in Croydon, as well as the fact that the national data is more recent and has captured an additional year of improvement. 88 89 HSSA 2011 CLG. Part I of the Housing Act 2004. - 57 - Evidence base to April 2011 These figures clearly show that improving energy efficiency should be a large part of raising the standard of private sector homes. The estimated average cost of making a home decent is £14,00090, making the total investment required to bring all private sector homes in Croydon up to the decent home standard £602m. The BRE stock condition study found non-decent homes were more prevalent in seven wards in the north and west-central part of the borough: Addiscombe, Bensham Manor, Broad Green, South Norwood, Thornton Heath, Waddon and West Thornton. Figure 15 below shows the distribution of private sector non-decent homes with concentrations in the north of the borough and in areas of Coulsdon West, Sanderstead and New Addington. Figure 15: Non-decent private sector homes as a percentage of all dwellings In 2009, 3.2 million ‘vulnerable households’91 in England were living in the private sector housing, of which 2.0 million (63%) were living in decent homes92. In Croydon 15,051 private sector households were defined as vulnerable and 51% (7,650) were living in decent homes. In order to achieve the decent homes target of 70% of vulnerable households living in decent homes, 2,886 homes would need to be made decent at an estimated cost of £40m93. 90 Based on BRE study 2008, adjusted to take into account costs in an outer London borough A vulnerable household is a household in receipt of the following benefits: Income Support; Incomebased Job Seeker’s Allowance; Housing Benefit; Council Tax Benefit; Disability Living Allowance: Care Component; Disability Living Allowance: Mobility Component; Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit; War Disablement Pension; Attendance Allowance; A range of tax credits with different qualifying thresholds including child tax credit, working tax credit and pension credit (See CLG 2006 EHCS report) 92 English Housing Survey – Headline report 2009/10 93 BRE 2008 updated report 91 - 58 - Evidence base to April 2011 Private sector renewal Between April 2006 and March 2011 the council provided grants and, more recently loans94, to assist 1,878 private homeowners to bring their properties up to standard. Figure 16 below shows grants and loans made between April 2007and the end of March 2011 by ward95. Figure 16: Private sector renewal assistance 2007-2011 Private sector renewal assistance 2007/11 180 160 40 140 24 35 Grants or loans 120 37 33 30 28 39 100 24 39 80 35 27 29 29 22 21 9 25 12 45 16 40 60 25 36 25 34 28 29 25 27 39 29 20 23 19 17 14 17 18 40 27 53 20 46 45 35 39 25 34 30 22 19 19 26 22 48 14 22 27 14 19 26 17 20 19 18 13 18 37 16 17 13 13 6 14 17 9 9 19 4 7 12 8 13 12 9 8 6 8 16 12 7 5 6 8 12 Th or nt W on e s He Be t Th a th o ns ha rnto m n M an W o oo r ds id No e Br rb o ur y So a d ut G re h e No n rw o Up Se o d pe lhu r N rs or t w Fi o od el dw ay F Ad airf di ield sc om b Ne Wa e w dd Ad o di n n As gto hb n u He rton at hf ie ld Pu rle y Sa Shi nd rley er Se st lsd ea on Cr d an oh a d Co Ba m ul llar s ds Co d o ul n E sd a on st W es Ke t nl ey 0 10 15 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 The council’s private sector renewal programme is not area based and responds to need wherever it arises in the borough. Figure 16 above shows where investment in improving private sector housing conditions has been concentrated in recent years. In 2009/11 North Croydon received 43% of assistance and Croydon metropolitan centre and its environs 26%. Since the loan scheme was introduced in 2009, some areas with residents who are “asset-rich but cash-poor” have seen an above average increase in assistance, notably Heathfield and Shirley. Energy efficiency There has been a substantial improvement in the average energy efficiency of dwellings in the whole of housing stock between 1996 and 2009. The mean energy efficiency (SAP) for all tenures in England was 53 in 2009, up two points on the 94 From April 2009 the council introduced a loans scheme whereby private sector homeowners could be granted a loan for qualifying works, the loan would be repayable over a certain period and a charge would be registered against the property with the Land Registry. 95 End of year figures for 2010/11 are projections. - 59 - Evidence base to April 2011 previous year96. This increase maintained the steady progress since 1996 when the mean SAP rating was 42. The improvement has been driven by changes to Building Regulations for new dwellings and through energy efficiency improvements carried out on the existing stock by homeowners and landlords (funded privately or through Government led programmes). Figure 6.1 below from the English Housing Survey Housing Stock Report 2009 shows this progress very clearly in all tenures. The energy efficiency of private sector homes is lower than that of social housing. The average SAP rating of private rented homes in England in 2009 was 51.9 and owner occupied homes was 51.3 compared with 59.6 in local authority rented housing and 62.4 in housing association rented housing. Figure 6.1: Mean energy efficiency (SAP) rating by tenure, 1996-2009 EER Band 65 D 60 SAP rating 55 50 E 45 40 35 F 30 1996 1997 1998 ow ner occupied 1999 2000 2001 private rented 2002 2003 2004 local authority 2005 2006 2007 2008 housing association 2009 all tenures Base: all dwellings Source: English House Condition Survey 1996 - 2007, English Housing Survey 2008 onwards, dwelling sample The reason for the difference is partly the age profile and type of housing in different tenures and partly the investment local authorities have made in their own stock to achieve the decent homes standard. In Croydon the average energy efficiency (SAP) rating of council dwellings is 69.597, and a significant element of decent homes investment has gone towards improving “thermal comfort” (i.e. energy efficiency) including insulating all council homes with cavity walls, providing 99.3% of council homes with programmable central heating and fitting 89% of council homes with double glazing. 96 97 English Housing Survey Housing stock report 2009, CLG By the SAP (Standard Assessment Process) 2005 energy efficiency measure - 60 - Evidence base to April 2011 In April 2011 there were 1,582 council homes (11%) without double-glazing and 3,643 properties have loft insulation that is less than 200mm thick (100% of council homes with lofts have a minimum of 100mm of insulation). There are a small number of older or vulnerable tenants (94) who do not want the disruption of having central heating installed and have refused to have works carried out. Data from CEN98 home energy checks indicates the average private sector SAP rating in Croydon was 56 in 2008, the most recent data available99, two points higher than the London average of 54. The 2008 BRE stock condition study estimates 11% of private sector homes in Croydon have a SAP rating of below 35 (13,659) compared to 8% across London. Older properties and converted flats have the worst energy efficiency ratings as do the homes of owner–occupiers without a mortgage and single pensioners. The most common reason for private sector homes failing the decent home standard is poor energy efficiency, through a lack of adequate loft insulation or cavity wall insulation. Many vulnerable people do not have central heating. Fuel poverty Figure 17 shows the number of private sector households in each ward in Croydon estimated to be experiencing fuel poverty from the BRE study 2008. 98 99 Creative Environmental Networks CEN analysis of home energy checks 2008. - 61 - Evidence base to April 2011 Figure 17: Fuel Poverty in private sector dwellings – Croydon Wards (BRE study 2008) Wes t Thornton 625 Bens ha m Ma nor 576 Woods i de 570 Thornton Hea th 550 Norbury 455 Addi s combe 451 South Norwood 445 Broa d Green 443 Sel hurs t 435 416 Croha m Fa i rfi el d 402 Upper Norwood 399 Shi rl ey 388 Sa nders tea d 382 Hea thfi el d 377 As hburton 371 Coul s don Wes t 363 Sel s don a nd Ba l l a rds 360 Coul s don Ea s t 360 Kenl ey 334 Wa ddon 312 Purl ey 307 201 New Addi ngton Fi el dwa y 123 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 No. households The 2008 BRE study estimated 9,600 households in Croydon were in fuel poverty. Most recent figures for Croydon suggest that fuel poverty is getting worse. Performance data for national indicator 187 (the percentage of people living in fuel poverty) given in Figure 18 below shows that the proportion of vulnerable households living in dwellings with a SAP rating of under 35 rose from 16.5% in 2008 to 21.7% in 2009, whereas those in dwellings with a SAP rating of over 65 fell from 21.7% to 13.7%100. Vulnerable households are taken to be claimants of housing benefit and 100 NI 187 results and analysis: London Borough of Croydon; CEN February 2010. This indicator has been discontinued - 62 - Evidence base to April 2011 council tax benefit. Fuel poverty is likely to increase further as more people claim benefits as a result of rising unemployment and as fuel prices increase; however, more recent Croydon data is not available. Figure 18: Fuel poverty among vulnerable households Fuel Poverty: energy efficiency rating of homes occupied by vulnerable households in Croydon (NI 187) 100% 90% 13.7 21.7 80% 70% 60% 50% 64.5 61.8 40% 30% 20% 10% 21.7 16.5 0% Weighted 2008/09 SAP<35 Weighted 2009/10 SAP 35 to 65 SAP>65 Almost half of households experiencing fuel poverty are living in the private rented sector. Table 36 below shows the breakdown of cases of fuel poverty by tenure in Croydon shown by the BRE study. Table 36: Fuel Poverty by Tenure (BRE 2008) Tenure Owner Occupier Private rented SAP<35 19.8% 49.5% The proportion of social housing tenants in fuel poverty identified by the BRE study (31%) is three times that shown by NI 187 data. It should be noted that in 2007 the Council had 35 homes (0.2% of total stock) with a SAP rating below 40. Figure 19 below sets out Croydon’s performance against NI 187 for 2008/09 and 2009/10, showing changes by tenure. - 63 - Evidence base to April 2011 Figure 19: Average NI 187 values for Croydon by tenure 2008/09 and 2009/10 Change in energy efficiency by tenure 2008/09 - 2009/10 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 12 11 12 24 70 21 24 65 72 52 61 66 18 2008-9 24 17 24 18 10 2009-10 Owner Occupier 2008-9 2009-10 Private Rent SAP<35 SAP35 to 65 2008-9 2009-10 Social Housing SAP>65 Because the sample size of the survey was small, results should be treated with caution, but energy efficiency of the private rented stock appears to have deteriorated. Changes may be to do with an increase in the percentage of tenants claiming housing benefit as a result of the recession. 2008/09 results showed that Croydon has similar rates of fuel poverty in owner occupied accommodation, lower rates of fuel poverty among social housing tenants in Croydon than in London, but significantly higher levels among private tenants (24% in Croydon compared with 17% in London). HMOs There are an estimated 2,800 houses in multiple occupation (HMOs) in Croydon, of which 800 are known to the council. Often the condition of HMOs is worse than that of average private sector properties; they can lack fire precautions such as smoke alarms and fire doors, and can be overcrowded, run down, poorly decorated and generally dirty, indicating a lack of good management. About 11% of HMOs known to the council have category 1 hazards, these usually relate to excess cold and the risk of fire. The government introduced mandatory licensing of HMOs in 2006 and the council has introduced an additional licensing scheme to apply to HMOs with two storeys occupied by three or more people. Housing and health Poor housing conditions contribute to a range of health and social issues. Overcrowding increases stress and depression; it hampers child development, educational attainment and employment; it also increases the risk of infant mortality. Damp and mould affect respiration, and increase absence from work. Poor repair, poor layout and the presence of hazards lead to falls and injuries, increasing health care costs, loneliness and isolation and reducing independence among older and disabled people. Low energy efficiency and fuel poverty exacerbate existing health - 64 - Evidence base to April 2011 conditions and contribute towards winter deaths. Based on a report by the Chartered Institute of Environmental Health, Figure 20 below identifies links between poor housing conditions and healthcare, social care and environmental costs crime and community stability. Figure 20: Links between housing conditions and public health Good Housing Leads to Good Health: A toolkit for environmental health practitioners (Chartered Institute of Environmental Health). Modified to include social care costs. Work to improve housing conditions and energy efficiency and remove hazards can help to reduce fuel poverty, improve health, prevent accidents, reduce hospital admissions and enable older and disabled people to remain in their homes for longer. Key issues: housing condition All of Croydon’s council housing met the decent homes standard in April 2011, but the estimated cost of maintaining this performance over the next four years is estimated at £79m. Stock condition in the social rented sector is not a significant issue for Croydon’s housing strategy in terms of generating additional housing need. Most households prefer an “in situ” solution to seeking to move to alternative accommodation. Stock condition in the private sector is a more significant issue for the housing strategy in that it may generate additional housing need: - 10% (11,397) of private housing is in disrepair - 17% (20,086) of private housing has category 1 hazards under the HHSRS - 24% (28,370) of private housing provides inadequate thermal comfort - 6% (6,695) of private housing lack modern facilities - 65 - Evidence base to April 2011 - 37% (42,973) of private housing fails the decent home standard The estimated cost of removing all private sector category 1 hazards is £227m. Private rented dwellings are the most likely to be non-decent and to have category 1 hazards Just over 50% of vulnerable households in the private sector Croydon live in decent homes. The cost of achieving the former government target of 70% of vulnerable households in the private sector living in decent homes is estimated at £40m. Private sector housing energy efficiency is relatively good in Croydon compared to the London average, but Croydon has a greater proportion of the least energy efficient homes. The English House Condition Survey 2008 report shows poor stock condition is unevenly distributed but tends to be more prevalent in deprived areas. Despite local authority activity targeted on vulnerable households in the private rented sector, the percentage of non-decent homes remains high. Fuel poverty is increasing nationally and in Croydon. There are more than 9,000 households in fuel poverty in Croydon. Fuel poverty is most effectively tackled through energy efficiency measures. Poor housing conditions contribute to a range of health and social issues: - overcrowding hampers child development and educational attainment - overcrowding increases the risk of infant mortality - damp and mould affect respiration - poor repair, poor layout and the presence of hazards lead to falls and injuries - low energy efficiency and fuel poverty exacerbate existing conditions and contribute towards winter deaths. - 66 - Evidence base to April 2011 3. CUSTOMER-FOCUSSED HOUSING ADVICE AND OPTIONS Local authorities have long-standing responsibilities towards housing applicants and homeless households101. In recent years housing policy has focused on encouraging local housing authorities to adopt a strategic approach to homelessness by tackling acute housing need by reducing rough sleeping, actively preventing homelessness and restricting the use of temporary accommodation for homeless households102. Housing waiting lists have increased over the past ten years partly due to increasing housing need but also partly due to applicants being able to apply for housing to more than one council. Local authorities have been encouraged to adopt a ‘choice based’ approach to housing allocations in order to improve transparency, tenancy sustainment and engagement. Local authorities have also been encouraged to consult upon and review their housing allocations schemes to ensure they reflect local priorities and applicants are clear and realistic about the prospects of being rehoused103. Homeless applications and acceptances decreased significantly over several successive years, as did the use of temporary accommodation, indicating the success of prevention activity. However, the economic downturn has caused substantial increases in homelessness in 2008/09 and 2010/11, and a consequent rise in the use of temporary accommodation in 2010/11. The government’s welfare reform programme has major implications for the options available to meet housing need. Changes in housing benefit, principally the introduction of national caps to the rates payable, reduction in the basis for setting local housing allowance (LHA) rates from the median to the 30th percentile of market rents, and the increase of the age restriction below which only a shared room rate is payable, from 25 to 35, present significant challenges around the prevention of homelessness, improvement of housing options for people in housing need and for supported housing residents, and procurement of private sector accommodation for households at risk of homelessness. The relationship and connection between housing support and homelessness is a very important one and effective arrangements for the prompt identification of support needs and referral to appropriate providers is a source of significant savings for local housing authorities and partner agencies. This section looks at the extent of rough sleeping in Croydon, levels of homeless and prevention activity. It goes on to look at how the housing waiting list has changed in recent years and housing allocation activity. It also looks at levels of housing supply for allocation and how this relates to housing need in terms of extent and size mix. It closes with a summary of the key issues for the housing strategy in meeting housing need in Croydon. 101 Housing Act 1996, Homelessness Act 2002. Sustainable Communities: Settled Homes, Changing Lives – A Strategy for Tackling Homelessness, ODPM (2005) 103 Fair and flexible: statutory guidance on social housing allocations for local authorities in England, CLG (2009) 102 - 67 - Evidence base to April 2011 Rough sleeping Rough sleeping is the most visible form of acute housing need and Croydon, in common with other outer London boroughs, has a small but persistent problem in this respect. Over the last year, 70 rough sleepers have been identified in Croydon. Local agencies in Croydon work with around fifteen rough sleepers at a time, but there is a turnover of individuals: some pass through on the way to the south coast and others sleep rough intermittently. One entrenched rough sleeper with high support needs has been sleeping rough for more than one year; three other entrenched rough sleepers sleep in Croydon intermittently and are currently away. These people rebuff attempts by agencies to admit them to a hostel. In October 2011 local agencies in Croydon estimated that on any one night, around eighteen people are sleeping rough in Croydon. The main issues are ensuring that rough sleepers make prompt contact with the service they need and developing move-on options for chaotic rough sleepers living in hostels. Homelessness The council has a duty to find settled accommodation for households who are homeless, in priority need (because they have dependent children, are expecting a child or are vulnerable through age or disability for example) and are not intentionally homeless. There are lesser duties to households who are not in priority need or who are intentionally homeless. Homelessness prevention In 2010/11 2,810 cases of potential homelessness were prevented, equivalent to 19.2 preventions per 1,000 households104 (compared with 10.1 across London). 40% of the cases were helped to stay in their existing homes, compared with almost half (49%) in 2009/10, and the remainder to obtain alternative accommodation. Our ability to prevent homelessness by enabling people to remain in their homes declined mainly due to the 75% decrease in successful conciliation including home visits for family/friend threatened exclusions. Between 2006/07 and 2010/11 more than 1,500 households were helped to access private sector accommodation through the council’s Landlord Deposit Scheme, but placements have fallen substantially since 2009/10 due to landlords’ uncertainty about welfare reform and competition from working households who are renting because they now have difficulty in accessing mortgages. Homeless decisions and acceptances Table 37 sets out the number of households that approached the council as homeless and the number accepted with a full housing duty. Table 37: Homelessness decisions and acceptances, 2002 to 2011 2002/03 104 Total decisions 4,054 Acceptances (full duty) 1,291 CLG Homelessness Prevention and Relief: England 2010/11 Experimental Statistics - 68 - Evidence base to April 2011 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 4,671 4,044 2,309 1,047 1,765 1,617 2,086 2,430 1,240 1,126 581 340 429 449 426 575 In 2010/11 2,430 households approached the council as homeless and a full housing duty was accepted towards 575 households. Of the remainder, a partial duty was accepted towards 94 households, and 1,761 applications were not accepted105. The figures above show a significant decrease in homeless approaches from 2002/03 to 2008/09, but sharp increases in 2009/10 (29%) and 2010/11 (16%) compared with previous years. The decline reflected the government’s policy focus on homelessness prevention, tackling rough sleeping and the use of temporary accommodation for homeless households106. The subsequent increase in homelessness seems to be the result of the economic downturn, the stress this is placing on families and the delayed reaction to the recession. Reasons for homelessness In 2010/11, the main causes of homelessness were parental eviction (24% of applications), eviction by family and friends (21%), domestic violence (10%) and loss of private rented accommodation (15%). The main increases in homelessness in the two years 2009/11 have been parental evictions, which have increased by 60% over the last two years, and evictions by friends and relatives, up by 46% over the same period. These increases reversed a trend of steady decline over several years. By contrast, losses of private tenancies only began in 2010/11, rising by 38%, after having fallen for the two previous years. The spike in 2007/08 may have been caused by landlord concerns over changes to arrangements for paying housing benefit direct to landlords. Homelessness due to domestic violence fell by 19% in 2010/11, after having risen by 25% in the previous year. 105 Source: CLG P1e data Sustainable Communities: settled homes; changing lives - A strategy for tackling homelessness, CLG (2005) 106 - 69 - Evidence base to April 2011 Homelessness reasons 2005/11 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Loss of private rented accommodation Evicted by parents Evicted by other relatives/friends Domestic violence 2010/11 Most of the increase in homelessness in 2010/11 was of applications from lone parents with children. Compared with a 14% increase in admissions to temporary accommodation (TA) overall, the number of single parent families admitted rose by 67 (19%). Most of this increase was accounted for by TA admissions of single parent families with children, which rose by 64 (24%), rather than single pregnant mothers. Single parent families now represent 53% of homeless households admitted to temporary accommodation, compared with couples with children or expectant mothers, which represent 10%. In 2010/11 the number of 16/17 year olds becoming homeless fell by 22 (12%) to 163, partly reversing the 62% increase of the previous year. Croydon was the first borough in London to halve its use of temporary accommodation, nearly two years ahead of the government’s 2010 target. On 1 April 2010, 1,267 households were in temporary accommodation, 34% of the 2004 baseline. Following this 66% reduction in homeless households in temporary accommodation between 2002 and 2010, the number of households has increased for the first time, by 16.7% to 1478 in March 2011 and continues to rise in 2011/12. The reversal of this downward trend was due to the rise in homelessness, leading to a 12% rise in placements in temporary accommodation, the reduction in the supply of social housing to rehouse people already living in temporary accommodation, and new case law which requires any private sector placement made within 28 days of homelessness to be regarded as temporary accommodation, rather than prevention of homelessness. - 70 - Evidence base to April 2011 Of those in temporary accommodation in March 2011, 44% were in the private rented sector under various arrangements (343 were in properties leased by housing associations, 204 in Landlord Deposit Scheme placements, and 100 in homes provided through a market rent scheme). Four out of ten accepted homeless households are provided with council accommodation under a temporary licence. The use of private sector accommodation for households facing homelessness, either as a prevention placement or as temporary accommodation had meant the council had been able to allocate more housing to non-homeless households in recent years. The percentage of all new tenants who are homeless households had therefore been falling consistently, from 80% in 2002/03 to 37% in 2009/10. However, as homelessness has risen, so the percentage has begun to rise once again. In September 2011 it stood at 54% of new tenants. 38% of people who approached as homeless or potentially homeless in 2010/11 were found to have no priority need. There is no legal duty to find accommodation for non-priority households but they are given advice and assistance, and are placed in the appropriate band of the housing waiting list and considered for rehousing through that route. Most non-priority applicants are single people and childless couples between the ages of 18 and 59 Housing waiting list In April 2011 there were nearly 1.8million people registered on English local authority housing waiting lists, with more than a fifth registered in London. Since 2006 the number of applicants on housing waiting lists nationally has increased by more than 500,000. In 2006 Croydon’s housing waiting list, at 9,353, ranked as the 15th largest of the 33 London Boroughs. Merton had the least with 3278 applicants registered and Newham had the most with 29,574 households on the list. Of the 9,353 applicants registered in Croydon 2,639 were homeless and 4,812 were households in housing need. There were also 1,406 council and 702 housing association tenant households registered for a transfer. Table 38 shows how the number of applicants on the housing waiting list in Croydon and how these numbers have changed between 2006 and 2011. Table 38: Housing register, April 2006, April 2010 and April 2011 2006 2010 2011 Housing Register Of which, homeless Of which, in housing need (bands 1-3) 9,353 9,870 7,880 2,639 1,082 1,144 3,606 3,788 4,700 By 2010 Croydon’s housing waiting list had grown by 3% and was ranked 16 th largest of 32 London boroughs (data for Lewisham was unavailable). The increase in housing waiting lists is due to a number of factors including the operation of “open” waiting lists since 2003, the regularity with which some individual lists are managed, but also - 71 - Evidence base to April 2011 and most tellingly due to the affordability of market housing. In March 2011, the council removed applicants with no housing need, and the total fell to 7880, but the waiting list was still ranked 17th largest in London. Between 2006 and 2011 the “makeup” of housing need captured in the housing waiting list has changed considerably. Up to 2010 there were marked reductions, due mainly to unusually high levels of housing supply in 2008/09 and 2009/10, when nearly 2,500 households were rehoused. Thereafter, levels of need have begun to rise due to a reduction in the supply of housing. The number of applicants in the highest need, Band 1, fell from 325 housing register and 394 transfer applicants in 2006 to 248 and 345 applicants respectively in 2010 (a decrease of 18% over four years). However, in 2011 Band 1 applicants rose to 295 and 364 respectively (an increase of 11% in one year alone). The number of Band 2 applicants also fell from 3,588 housing register and 198 transfer applicants in 2006 to 1,752 and 169 respectively in 2010 (a bigger decrease of 49%). Again, in 2011 Band 2 applicants rose to 2000 and 196 respectively (an increase of 14% in one year). The trend in Band 3 applicants, who have lower needs and a much lower chance of receiving offers of accommodation, has been upwards throughout the period, from 2,332 to 3,549 (52%) between 2006 and 2011, the rate of increase accelerating in 2010/11. Band 3 social housing tenants registered for a transfer, which had been largely stable between 2006 and 2010, rose by 11% in 2010/11. The anticipated reduction in supply over the next few years is likely to mean that, in future, those with higher levels of need in bands 1 and 2 will increase on the waiting list, with significant implications for waiting times and quality of life. Overcrowding and under-occupation According to the 2001 Census, 4,365 households (3.1%) across all tenures were overcrowded, of which 1,546 (1.1%) were severely overcrowded (more than 1.5 people per room). The overall level of overcrowding increased from 2.9% since the 1991 census. The level of overcrowding in council rented housing increased between 1991 and 2001 from 5.87% to 6.05%, and severe overcrowding has more than doubled. The council’s overcrowding strategy sets out the current overcrowding situation in Croydon. Using the bedroom standard107 it is estimated that some 630,000 households in England are overcrowded, of which 273,000 are in the social rented sector108. Estimates of bedroom standard overcrowding in London based on a three year average over 2007/10 suggest it has increased to: 16.1% of households in the social rented, and 10.6% of households in the private rented sector The number of households on the housing register lacking one or more bedrooms according to Croydon’s current housing allocation policy rose from 3123 in 2010 to 107 108 English Housing Survey Household Report 2009/10 – CLG July 2011 English Housing Survey Household Report 2009/10 – CLG July 2011 - 72 - Evidence base to April 2011 4,040 in 2011 (a 29% increase). The council will consult on a proposal to adopt the bedroom standard for the assessment of housing need and allocation of accommodation. This will mean that some applicants will be considered to be less overcrowded than previously or will no longer be considered to be overcrowded. In 2010 there were 1,924 applicants on the housing register who were overcrowded according to the bedroom standard. 72% of overcrowded households were living in private accommodation or with friends and family. The growth of overcrowding in this sector was greater than in social housing: the number of housing applicants who were overcrowded increased by 38% in 2010/11 compared with a 10% rise in applications from social housing tenants. The CLG estimates that 72,000 tenants are under-occupying properties in the social rented sector in London. The Census 2001 showed 35% of single pensioner households and 60% of multiple pensioner households were under-occupying their homes. This would suggest that in Croydon more than 11,000 households in all tenures were under-occupying in 2001. In March 2011 there are 195 social housing tenants registered for a transfer to smaller accommodation. The Welfare Reform Bill includes a provision to restrict the housing benefit of underoccupying social housing tenants of working age to the rate for a more appropriate size of property from April 2013. Initial analysis in December 2010 established that Croydon there were 1,207 potential under-occupiers of working age occupying council housing. Of these, about 800 could be in receipt of housing benefit. Of the 1,207, 495 occupied 2 bedroom properties, 653 occupied 3 bedroom properties, 59 occupied 4 bedroom properties. There is a high risk of increased rent arrears and an increased demand for transfers to smaller dwellings in the social housing sector on the one hand and greater demand on housing options and a higher number of homelessness applications from private tenants on the other. This will be compounded by the fact that more people will move onto JSA in future years as eligibility for employment and support allowance and incapacity benefit is restricted. Availability and need for housing for older people There are 721 pensioner households on the housing waiting list. Two thirds (66%) of applicants indicated in their applications that they wanted general needs housing. The remainder wanted or would consider sheltered housing. Transfer applicants expressed similar preferences. In 2010/11 128 units of sheltered or special sheltered housing were allocated to applicants and 63 were allocated to transfer applicants. Generally speaking, applicants wanting general needs housing were willing to accept one-bedroom properties and most were flexible about which part of the borough they would consider. Single people were far more likely than couples to opt for sheltered housing. This perhaps supports the findings of an Age Concern survey showing that nearly half of single householders were unhappy living on their own. Two focus groups held for applicants aged fifty and over on the housing register - 73 - Evidence base to April 2011 elicited a range of views about what people want from either general needs or retirement housing. Key features included: ground floor accommodation (preferably bungalows) in good condition, and in a quiet neighbourhood close to public transport. Housing supply The annual supply of existing social housing available to let is affected by a number of factors including the ability of tenants to move into other tenures, vacancy rates (affected by transfers, evictions and demographic factors) and the impact of government policies such as the right to buy. Limits to discounts, increases in house prices and tighter lending criteria for mortgage finance has seen right to buy sales fall to single figures in recent years. Figure 21 shows the level of housing need in terms of applications for housing from applicants, homeless households and council and housing association tenants needing to transfer. The data for 2010/11 reflects the removal of applicants with no housing need from the housing register. Figure 21: Housing need in Croydon 2004/05 to 2010/11 Need 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 transfers housing register (all bands) homeless accepted homeless refused Figure 22 below shows the level of social housing supply made up of council-owned rented accommodation, registered social landlords’ rented accommodation, including newly developed dwellings, and private rented accommodation secured for housing applicants in housing need. The level of social housing vacancies has been declining in recent years as a result of increasingly limited opportunities for tenants to move to alternative accommodation in the private sector due to the increase in house prices. Social housing supply available each year for allocation is only sufficient meet between 8% and 10% of existing housing need in the form of households on the housing waiting list and homeless households. As a result social housing is only allocated to those households in the most urgent housing need. - 74 - Evidence base to April 2011 Figure 22: Housing supply in Croydon 2004/05 to 2010/11 Supply 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 0 Private sector 5000 RSL new 10000 RSL relet 15000 Council Urgent housing need (including homeless households, high priority cases on the housing and transfer registers and urgent supported housing move-on cases) has seen a slow decrease from 3,320 to 1917 households between 2005 and 2010, but has risen by 14% in 2011 and is continuing to rise. Table 39 below shows the makeup of urgent housing need and how it has changed over the period 2005/06 to 2010/11. Table 39: Urgent housing need 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Homeless - new applicants Homeless - backlog in TA* Housing register - high priority (Band 1) Nominations - mobility schemes Supported housing move-on Transfer applicants (council tenants) Transfer applicants (RSL tenants) TOTAL 397 2,181 268 5 75 314 80 3320 307 1,774 334 5 75 332 92 2919 293 1,492 367 5 75 325 69 2626 279 1,224 299 5 75 298 82 2262 291 976 225 5 75 287 58 1917 *The backlog in temporary accommodation (TA) is calculated by subtracting the number of new households admitted to TA in the year from the total number of households in TA at the year end. Key issues: housing need Whereas from 2002/3 to 2009/10 there was an upward trend in the supply of social housing, supply fell sharply by 31% in 2010/11. Croydon is faced now with severe challenges in meeting housing need. Social housing supply available each year for allocation is only sufficient to meet between 8% and 10% of existing housing need in the form of households on the housing waiting list and homeless households (9% in 2010/11). As a result social housing is only allocated to those households in the most urgent housing need and access to the private sector offers the only prospect of meeting the remainder of housing need. - 75 - 276 1202 271 0 75 289 75 2188 Evidence base to April 2011 The level of housing supply in recent years enabled the most urgent housing need to be met until 2010/11, when social housing lettings fell by 35%. Urgent housing need on the waiting list (including homeless households, high priority cases on the housing and transfer registers and urgent supported housing moveon cases) fell gradually from 3,320 to 1917 households between 2005/06 and 2010/11, but rose by 14% in 2011/12 and is continuing to rise. Applicants on Croydon’s housing register who were not homeless, but in housing need increased by 5% to almost 3,800 between 2006 and 2010, and rose by a further 24% in 2010/11 alone Applications from homeless people fell by 51% between 2002/03 to 2008/09, but then rose sharply by 16% in 2010/11. The number of homeless households admitted to temporary accommodation fell dramatically between 2002/03 and 2007/08. Since then this trend has reversed and numbers have risen sharply in 2008/09 (by 33%) and 2010/11 (by 12%). Homeless households in priority need to whom the council accepts a full housing duty similarly fell after 2004/05, but rose for the first time in 2010/11 to 575; this is an increase of over 30% compared with the average number of households accepted over the last four years (437). The most significant cause of the increase in homelessness in the last two years is the rise in parental evictions (60% over two years) and exclusions by relatives and friends (46% over two years); homelessness due to loss of private tenancies rose by 38% in 2010/11, reversing a declining trend Croydon was the first London borough to achieve the government target of halving the use of temporary accommodation. The total number of households in temporary accommodation had fallen by two thirds between December 2004 and April 2010, to 1,267. However, since then the number has increased to 1,478 in March 2011 and 1555 in September 2011, as a result of the recent increase in homelessness and reduction in access to social and private sector housing. The changes to HB are making it harder for the council to place homeless households in private tenancies and for people to access the private rented sector themselves. The council and HB claimants are competing with people in stable employment who would previously have bought their home but, because of greater difficulty in obtaining mortgages, now have to rent. Placements through the council’s landlord deposit scheme fell by 42% in 2010/11 and by 13% in April to September 2011. As the HB levels of existing private tenants are reviewed, these restrictions are expected to lead to rent arrears, and increases in overcrowding and homelessness amongst existing residents. Perhaps more significantly, the anticipated migration to Croydon from more expensive areas elsewhere in London, estimated at 550 households, will put pressure on local housing. From January 2012, the limit of HB to the shared accommodation rate will apply to single tenants age 25 to 34, in addition to under 25s, affecting around 950 existing private tenants in Croydon. Although homeless hostel residents will be exempt, this measure will increase the demand for shared - 76 - Evidence base to April 2011 accommodation. This, combined with the restriction of HB to the 30 th centile of market rent increases the risk of single homelessness, silting up of hostel places for young people and increasing the number of homeless 16 and 17 year olds in B&B hotels. As families from more expensive parts of London increase demand for family homes in Croydon, there is a risk of reduced availability of shared housing for under 35s, who are likely to be limited to accessing unregistered houses in multiple occupation. There are 797 potential under-occupiers of council housing who are of working age and claiming housing benefit; the reduction in their benefit from April 2013 may lead to rent arrears and increase the demand for transfers to smaller dwellings In October 2011 there were an estimated 18 rough sleepers on a typical night in Croydon. Only one person had slept rough for more than a year; three others who sleep in Croydon intermittently were away at the time. The main issues are reducing the number of rough sleepers in hostels who return to the street, developing move-on options for chaotic rough sleepers living in hostels and ensuring rough sleepers get referred promptly to the services they need, in particular mental health services. In 2001, over 4,000 households across all tenures (3.1% of households in all tenures in Croydon) were overcrowded, of which 1,500 were severely overcrowded. The highest levels were amongst council tenants. In 2010 there were 1,924 applicants who were overcrowded according to the government’s bedroom standard. The number of households registered on the housing waiting list for a move to larger accommodation (not all overcrowded according to the bedroom standard) increased by 29% in 2010/11. There is also a wide variety of needs – from families, lone parents, single people, older people and those with disabilities - giving rise to competing demands for social housing. A high proportion of those in housing need are from vulnerable and minority groups. Social housing supply available each year for allocation is only sufficient to meet between 8% and 10% of existing housing need in the form of households on the housing waiting list and homeless households (9% in 2010/11). As a result social housing is only allocated to those households in the most urgent housing need and access to the private sector offers the only prospect of meeting the remainder of housing need. - 77 - Evidence base to April 2011 4. ACHIEVING INDEPENDENCE THROUGH HOUSING SUPPORT Housing support enables vulnerable people to become and stay independent. It enables people to manage everyday activities, such as budgeting and paying bills, planning meals and shopping. It enables people to live a normal life, to participate in their community and pursue social or leisure interests. It also includes adaptations and other services that help older or disabled people to stay more healthy and mobile. It contributes to reducing admissions to hospital, cutting how long people stay in hospital and preventing delayed discharge from hospital. Housing support can be provided in purpose built accommodation with support staff or by providing services to people in their own homes (known as “floating support”). Housing support enables people leaving an institution such as hospital or prison or recovering from addiction or a traumatic experience to regain independence and resilience. It helps older people and people with learning disabilities or mental health problems to achieve and sustain independent living. It helps prevent people from experiencing crises and the need for more intensive intervention, avoiding additional costs to health, social care, probation and homelessness services. It is a positive, cost effective and person-centred service that saves more than £3 for every £1 invested. Supporting people was introduced in 2003 to combine a number of streams of housing support funding into a coherent programme delivered by local authorities. In 2005 the programme was reformed to ensure authorities adopted a strategic approach to programme delivery, established a strategic commissioning function and focused on service quality and value for money. Since 2003, in all but one year, the real term core funding for Supporting People in Croydon has reduced. This has a double edged impact in forcing providers to be innovative and do ”more with less”. From April 2011 Supporting People funding is paid to local authorities as part of the formula grant. Grant conditions on the use of Supporting People funding were lifted in 2009 and local authorities are free to use the funding to meet their priorities. Housing related support Supporting People is the commissioning and regulatory framework for housingrelated support services. Housing related support is provided to vulnerable people in the following client groups: young people at risk, teenage parents and people leaving local authority care older people, including frail elderly people and people with dementia people with physical, sensory and learning disabilities people with mental health problems homeless people, including single people, families, rough sleepers, people experiencing domestic violence and refugees other vulnerable groups including ex-offenders, and people misusing drugs and alcohol. - 78 - Evidence base to April 2011 Housing-related support can be provided through purpose-built accommodation, known as supported housing, or through “floating” support where a support worker visits someone at their home. In 2005 Croydon provided 3,738 households with housing-related support; 3,426 were in supported housing, and 312 were living in their own homes and receiving floating support. The Supporting People Strategy 2005-10, which included a thorough benchmarking and needs mapping exercise, set out how we were to develop housing support over the next five years. In 2010 Croydon provides housing support to 4,188 households and our floating support offer has more than doubled to 801 households supported in their own homes. Overall the number of households assisted has increased by 8% due to the increase in floating support provision and a small decrease in accommodation-based support, reflecting the policy trend towards encouraging and supporting choice and independence for customers of care and support. In 2006, the GLA, National Housing Federation and the Housing Corporation published Building for All109 to assist London boroughs with assessing the need for supported housing. The report used detailed analysis of Supporting People client record forms, research and published statistics to arrive at estimates of the overall supported housing need in each borough. The report was accompanied by a technical appendix and toolkit that allowed boroughs to use local prevalence, need or accommodation data to refine the estimates. The toolkit estimates the prevalence of each client group in the general population, describing this as the “population at risk”, and then goes on to estimate the proportion of the client group likely to need housing-related support, described as the “population in need”. It then projects the growth in the populations of vulnerable groups likely to need housing support over the ten years from 2006 to 2016. Table 40 sets out Croydon’s estimated “populations at risk” and “populations in need” for 2006 and 2016. Table 40: Supporting People client groups – estimates of populations at risk and populations in need 2006 At risk Older people with support needs Older people with dementia/MH issues Frail elderly Single homeless Rough sleepers People with MH issues People with LD People with PD People with HIV/AIDS 8,196 2,746 1,045 1,809 0 39,313 4,522 33,284 943 109 - 79 - In need 3,114 275 230 60 0 856 588 333 100 2016 At Risk 9,126 3,060 1,163 1,901 0 41,313 4,753 34,980 991 In need 3,468 306 256 63 0 900 618 350 105 Evidence base to April 2011 Drug misuse Alcohol misuse DV Refugees/asylum seekers Travellers Teenage parents Young people leaving care Young people at risk Offenders and those at risk Mentally disordered offenders Homeless families with support needs 2,035 16,732 15,007 113 45 320 315 17,240 702 28 925 54 155 50 22 3 106 125 159 93 9 305 2,139 17,585 15,930 119 48 337 294 18,111 745 30 972 56 162 53 24 3 111 116 167 98 10 321 The Building for All methodology produces an estimate of the number of clients likely to need supported housing in each client group, through analysis of client record forms, and compares this to the number of units of supported housing actually provided. The toolkit takes account of the overlap between different supporting people client groups and deflates the gross estimates of additional units to take this into account, as follows: “There is, inevitably, a degree of overlap between different client groups: some single homeless people are also drug users, some people with learning difficulties also have physical or sensory disabilities and so on. The model deals with this by assuming that this overlap occurs at a standard rate within each of the ‘super-client groups’. The overlap is estimated as being: 33% for all socially excluded groups 20% for all older persons’ groups 50% for all people needing support with care.110 Taking account of the overlap between client groups Croydon has no need for additional supported housing up to 2016 and changes in individual client groups can be met from within the overall existing provision of supported housing through reconfiguring services. Future need for housing-related support The Building for All toolkit provides a useful methodology for estimating overall housing support needs, however, it does not capture local trends that fall outside the data used in its projections. Boroughs are encouraged to substitute or supplement local data where it differs substantially from the model estimates. In Croydon there are a number of client groups for which the need for housing support has begun to change quite dramatically in recent years: The number of young people (18 to 25 years old) with learning disabilities and 110 Building for all – Identifying the need for supported housing in London – Technical report and appendix, National Housing Federation (2006). - 80 - Evidence base to April 2011 packages of care who have been referred through from the children and young people department to the adult services and housing department for continuing care has been steadily increasing; 139 clients were referred in 2008/09, increasing to 154 in 2009/10 and a projected 188 (based on referrals for the first five months of the year) in 2010/11. This will have a direct impact on the demand for supported housing. The number of people presenting as homeless because of domestic violence. Demand from teenage parents appears to be falling. Over the last three years, there has been an overall downward trend in the numbers of homeless, pregnant 16 and 17 year olds approaching and accepted as homeless. The numbers requiring mother and baby home provision have fallen from five in 2007/08 to none and two in 2008/09 and 2009/10 respectively. Move on One key requirement for providing successful, efficient housing support is sufficient housing resources to enable those only needing support in the short-term to move on to a permanent home when the time comes. Over the past few years Croydon, in common with other boroughs in London, has been working hard to prevent supported housing schemes from “silting up”, with clients ready but unable to move on due to a decrease in the availability of permanent housing. The council’s move-on quota (a specific number of council and housing association homes to be allocated to applicants ready to move on from supported accommodation) and the Croydon Rent in Advance Scheme (CRIAS) have been successful in this regard. National Indicator 141 (NI 141) measures the extent to which clients move on from supported housing in a planned way to more independent living. Since NI 141 was introduced, planned moves have been increased from 451 in 2007/08 to 554 in 2008/09; however, they have and have stabilised at around 600, with 621 planned moves in 2009/10 and 622 in 2010/11. During 2009/10, continuing into 2010/11, about 10% of residents at any one time (65 to 70 people) has been ready to move on to settled housing but unable to do so because of limited housing supply. This compares with 24% in 2005. Plans to replace some existing large hostels for young homeless people with smaller hostels help continue this trend as the new schemes are designed to provide more intensive support and move people on more quickly; however, a continuing high level of move-on housing supply will be essential to facilitate this as well as to continue the downward trend in silt-up in the other schemes. Transformation in adult social care Adult services policy has in recent years sought to enable people receiving care or support to achieve or maintain greater independence and exercise more choice and control over how and where they receive services. Among other things this transformation has resulted in a significant and sustained reduction in the use of residential care. The proportion of people assisted through community-based services in Croydon has been increasing every year. Table 41 shows, by client group, the numbers of people assisted through residential and nursing care and through community-based services (in their own homes or supported housing). - 81 - Evidence base to April 2011 Table 41: Placements in residential and nursing care versus people assisted through community-based services, 2007/08 to 2009/10 Type of assistance Number Adults with disabilities, aged 18 to 64* Community-based service 2,237 Residential/nursing care 502 Total 2,739 Adults aged 65 and over Community-based service 4,781 Residential/nursing care 1,113 Total 5,894 change, 07/08 to 09/10 % Number % Number % 82 18 2,817 548 3,365 84 16 3,231 350 3,581 90 10 + 994 - 152 + 842 81 19 5,240 1,078 6,318 83 17 5,882 882 6,764 87 13 + 1,101 - 231 + 870 In addition, demand for telecare support, measured against referrals to the Careline service, is increasing at 10% per annum. This trend is shown in Figure 22 below. Figure 23: Demand for telecare The transformation of adult social care challenges traditional models and over the next few years will have a profound impact on: The use of residential care The use of traditional sheltered and extra care housing The number of older and disabled people living independently in their own homes the demand for adaptations, disability access and the market for equipment and aids the demand for intermediate housing to reable people leaving hospital the use of assistive technology, telecare, alarms and remote Home adaptations Most older people, disabled people, or people who are vulnerable do not require anything other than standard housing, however, a number need physically adapted housing or support so that they can manage their homes or their day-to-day lives. There is increasing demand for adaptations, equipment and telecare services as a - 82 - Evidence base to April 2011 result of government policy and from our ageing population which is gradually increasing the economic and social necessity to find ways of supporting people at home rather than in institutional settings. Age and disability do not necessarily give rise to the need for adapted housing and housing-related support, so demographic data in relation to older and disabled people cannot provide an accurate picture of demand. However, population trends are likely to have an effect on demand. The POPPI (Projecting Older People Population Information) and PANSI (Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information) data systems have been developed for the Department of Health by the Institute of Public Care (IPC) and they provide population and health data at a borough level about older people, learning disability, physical disability and mental health. Table 45 sets out the current and projected populations for the main groups relevant to this chapter; all groups will see significant increases over the next 10 years. Table 42: Predicted population of older people and people with disabilities, Croydon, 2010, 2015 and 2020 2010 Population aged 65 & over Population aged 18 to 64 with a moderate or severe physical disability Population aged 18 to 64 with a moderate or severe learning disability Population aged 18 to 64 with a mental health problem* 2015 2020 Increase 2010 - 2020 44,600 48,500 51,700 16% 21,175 21,979 23,083 9% 1,199 1,237 1,277 7% 1,643 1,680 1,718 5% Source: Department of Health, POPPI & PANSI predictions, October 2010, includes people with an antisocial personality disorder or psychotic disorder The council also provides help to people who need major adaptations to their home. The major adaptations service receives around 700 referrals every year. The most common types of adaptation are level access showers, stair lifts and ramps, with an average cost in the region of £10,000. The housing need survey undertaken in 2002 estimated 3,500 people in Croydon were living in homes which were unsuitable due to a physical or sensory disability and that 80% of adaptations could be carried out to the property currently lived in. The total cost of undertaking all required adaptations was estimated at £62.5m (2002 prices). Almost all (87%) of the requirement for adaptations was to owner-occupied properties. We have an estimated 500 people in Croydon needed wheelchair-accessible homes and the majority of this need can be met by adapting existing homes. Around 400 people are referred to the council each year for assistance with adaptations and about 200 receive assistance. In 2010/11 the council assisted 347 households, of those assisted, 160 were council tenants and 187 private sector occupants. - 83 - Evidence base to April 2011 Unfortunately demand for adaptations from private sector residents continues to outstrip the funding available from the government and in recent years the council has put in additional resources to help meet it. Help with repairs, adaptations and maintenance The Staying Put service helps older and disabled people with adaptations by liaising with occupational therapists, carrying out surveys, finding reliable builders and providing support throughout the works. It receives more than 1800 referrals every year. In 2010/11 we supported 660 people through this scheme. Staying Put in the Garden helps people maintain their gardens helping to eliminate hazards and prevent crime. Age UK Croydon’s handyperson scheme, commissioned by the council, carries out minor jobs to keep homes in good repair and free of safety hazards. These very minor interventions can have a significant impact on people by reducing falls and accidents. Our handyperson scheme provided minor repairs and odd jobs at a reduced cost to 518 people over 60 years of age or disabled in 2010/11. The Safe Project provides help with minor safety measures such as locks and key boxes. Impact and fit with modern social care practice The council has had a major transformation programme in place since the publication of Putting People First. As a result, people are increasingly more likely to remain in their own homes. Table 43 shows, by client group, the numbers of people assisted through residential and nursing care on the one hand, and through community-based services (in their own homes or supported housing) on the other. Over the three years to 2009/10 the number of people assisted has increased, however, there has also been a clear reduction in the use of residential care and the proportion of people assisted through community-based services has increased in response. These figures support the conclusion that there is not an additional need for extra care housing as the demand for this service is similar to that for residential care. Table 43: Placements in residential and nursing care versus people assisted through community-based services, 2007/08 to 2010/11 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 Type of assistance Number % Number % Number % Number Adults with disabilities, aged 18 to 64* Community-based service 2,237 82 2,817 84 3,231 90 3165 Residential/nursing care 502 18 548 16 350 10 354 Total 2,739 3,365 3,581 3519 Adults aged 65 and over Community-based service 4,781 81 5,240 83 5,882 87 4,328 Residential/nursing care 1,113 19 1,078 17 882 13 909 Total 5,894 6,318 6,764 5237 Source: Department of Health RAP returns * includes people with learning or physical disabilities, and mental health needs - 84 - % 90 10 82 18 Evidence base to April 2011 Key issues: housing support The population groups who have specific housing requirements in order for them to live independently within the community are increasing. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of older people is likely to increase by 16%, and the numbers with physical disabilities, learning disabilities and mental health problems by between 5% and 9%. Preventative services such as adaptations and telecare are leading to reduced reliance on residential care and an increased tendency for people to remain in their own homes; residential care placements have fallen by 150 and 230 for older people and younger adults with disabilities respectively between 2007/08 and 2009/10. The 2002 housing need survey estimated that 3,500 people are living in homes which are not appropriate because of their physical disabilities. 6,700 people need an adaptation to help them manage better. Demand for help with adaptations is increasing and outstrips the funding available with the result that waiting times are unacceptably long. Demand for other services which help people stay put are also increasing There is no outstanding need for additional accommodation-based supported housing although some current provision requires replacement or modernisation to better meet need, and, over time, some will need conversion in order to cater to different client groups. However, this level of provision can only be adequate if residents can move on to independent housing in a timely fashion: an estimated 10% are currently ready to move but unable to because of limited access to social or private rented housing. The demand for all types of housing support is likely to increase in relation to the growing number of people within vulnerable population groups and the rise in homelessness. - 85 - Evidence base to April 2011 5. MANAGING AND SUSTAINING GREAT PLACES TO LIVE Croydon is a borough of contrasts and there are clear differences between areas in terms of tenure, ethnicity, health and deprivation. Generally, the north of the borough is more densely populated and displays inner-city characteristics, while the south is much less densely populated, wealthier with an older population structure. The south east is an area of largely social rented housing and has higher levels of deprivation. The effective management of social housing blocks and estates makes a significant contribution to the success of local communities and is an important element in ensuring the successful implementation of the spatial vision. This section looks at those aspects of housing management that contribute to improve outcomes for communities in Croydon and some of the cross cutting issues that are particularly associated with social housing including: Community safety Community engagement Health and well-being Deprivation and worklessness Provision for children and young people Community safety Community safety is an important issue for local residents and is frequently identified in surveys by tenants as their primary concern. The British Crime Survey (BCS) 2009/10 shows nationally crime decreased significantly between 1995 and 2005; however, since then there has been little change. The BCS is a nationally representative sample survey (based on more than 45,000 respondents) of the population resident in households in England and Wales. As a household based survey, the BCS does not cover all offences or all population groups. Police recorded crime covers more offence types (including drug offences) and covers the entire population; however, it does not include crimes not reported to the police. Levels of crime in Croydon have largely followed the national trend, and Croydon enjoys slightly lower crime levels than London as a whole for each category of crime, except for fraud or forgery offences111. Table 44 below shows the change in the number of offences with significant decreases in burglary, fraud, theft and criminal damage; however, there has been a very significant increase in drugs offences from 676 in 1999/2000 to 3038 in 2008/09, however, latest figures for 2010/11 show a significant decrease in drugs offences to 2300. 111 Offence categories are violent crime, sexual offences, robbery, burglary, theft and handling, fraud or forgery, criminal damage, drugs and other notifiable offences. - 86 - Evidence base to April 2011 Criminal Damage Drugs 4,720 3,779 4,131 4,115 3,769 3,230 3,582 3,464 3,681 4,044 4,356 13,274 12,582 13,386 13,853 12,687 11,565 12,017 10,251 9,337 10,130 10,861 4,484 3,136 3,806 3,572 3,533 3,121 2,900 2,073 1,616 1,862 1,726 7,012 6,487 6,386 5,657 5,737 5,474 5,079 5,014 4,715 4,557 3,835 676 715 760 1,141 861 782 1,048 1,515 2,466 3,038 2,300 Grand total Fraud or Forgery 1,094 1,568 2,095 1,888 1,771 1,496 1,845 1,829 1,677 1,407 1,660 Other Notifiable Offences Theft and Handling 302 392 384 427 384 411 352 354 372 397 470 Burglary 5,880 6,327 6,206 7,642 7,944 8,604 7,763 6,741 6,370 6,926 6,630 Robbery 1999/2000 2000/1 2001/2 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2010/11 Sexual Offences Violence Against the person Table 44: Percentage change in no. offences 1999-2011 - Croydon 301 235 296 323 357 321 273 269 353 422 447 37,743 35,221 37,450 38,618 37,043 35,004 34,859 31,510 30,587 32,783 32,289 Table 45 below shows the decrease in the overall number of offences committed in Croydon over the past six years. Table 45: Offences – Croydon (Met Police Crime Figures) 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Total offences 35,004 34,859 31,510 30,587 2008/09 32,783 2010/11 32,289 The crime sub-domain of the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 shows the areas in Croydon that experience higher rates of the four major types of criminal activity (violence, criminal damage, robbery and burglary) that cause the greatest victimisation. In Croydon these areas are Croydon town centre, district centres, neighbourhoods in the north of the borough and major social housing estates. The fear or worry about crime, measured by the British crime survey as the percentage of people with high levels of worry about crime, has decreased nationally since 1992112. Statistics on the fear of crime are not available at a borough level; however, the 2008 place survey asked a sample of local residents in each local authority area questions about how safe they felt outside at night, about anti-social behaviour and the about the extent of problems such as litter and vandalism. In London: 112 44% of people felt safe or very safe outside after dark, compared to 40.8% in Croydon. 48.5% of people felt teenager hanging around the streets was a very big of fairly big problem, compared to 45.4% in Croydon. British Crime Survey 2008/09 Table 5.07 Trends in worry about crime, 1992 to 2008/09. - 87 - Evidence base to April 2011 39% of people felt vandalism, graffiti and other deliberate damage was a very big of fairly big problem, compared to 35.6% in Croydon. The annual fear of crime survey carried out by the Safer Croydon Partnership found most residents (60 per cent) think that the level of antisocial behaviour in Croydon is greater than one year ago. Of these, 36 per cent feel it is slightly greater and 24 per cent think it is much greater. The area of Croydon in which panel members lived seemed to make no difference to their response. One third of panel members said they had never been a victim of antisocial behaviour. Croydon’s town centre and the north of the borough are the main hotspots and they are the same for crime and anti-social behaviour. The Safer Croydon Partnership highlights the following achievements in tackling crime and disorder in the past year in their Safer Croydon Community Safety Strategy 2010/11: A reduction of the most serious violent crimes from 395 (08/09) to 338 (09/10) 129 successful interventions to reduce anti-social behaviour through the use of acceptable behaviour agreements A 50% success rate bringing perpetrators of domestic violence to justice. A 5% increase in the number of drug users have engaged in effective treatment programmes from 643 to 675 A reduction of 195 first time entrants into the Youth Justice System aged 10-17 compared with the previous year Developing the Turnaround Centre to tackle youth crime and support families Set up the Croydon Against Business Crime Partnership Implemented the Diamond Project to tackle re-offending In 2009/10 council tenants reported 2,254 new incidents of anti-social behaviour. The council’s tenancy and anti-social behaviour teams took action in respect of 2,550 cases of anti-social behaviour. The pie chart below shows the type of new incidents of anti-social behaviour reported in 2009/10 Racial harassment 17% Gun/knife/w eapon related crime/one off acute/serious incidents/allow ing use of property for illegal or immoral purposes Domestic noise/music 1% 3% Alcohol/domestic violence 28% Car damage/parking/old cars/unlicensed scooters Disability abuse/harassment/homophobic behaviour/intimidation/physical assault/threats/verbal abuse/vexatious complainant Youth related bullying 18% 4% 6% 7% 2% 6% 8% Drugs/supplying/dealing/using class A drugs Pets (including barking dogs) Arson/graffiti/offensive graffiti/rubbish/vandalism/burglary Garden property maintenance - 88 - Evidence base to April 2011 In 2009/10 we: obtained 1 ASBO and 1 interim ASBO agreed 9 acceptable behaviour contracts (ABC) served 40 notices to quit and notices of seeking possession helped 55 victims of domestic violence and hate crime through the sanctuary project obtained 19 injunctions and court undertakings were granted 11 possession orders evicted 3 anti-social tenants closed 2 premises responsible for excessive noise and nuisance Community engagement Community cohesion The 2008 place survey asked a sample of Croydon residents whether they agreed that people from different backgrounds got on well together. 76% of croydon residents agreed with the statement, which is very close to the average for London and England. Tenant satisfaction The 2008 tenant satisfaction survey was carried out on behalf of the council by Ipsos MORI. A random sample of croydon tenants was selected, 3,000 questionnaires were sent out and 970 returns were received representing a response rate of 33%. The survey asked tenants a series of questions including how satisfied they were with the council as their landlord; the results were as follows (change from 2006 survey in brackets): Satisfaction with overall services, a key National Indicator measure, stands at 72%, approximately the same as in 2006. Ipsos MORI Frontiers analysis suggests that this level of satisfaction is close to what would be expected given local circumstances. Satisfaction with repairs and maintenance 72% (+4%) Satisfaction with neighbourhood as a place to live 70 (+8%) Satisfaction with final outcome of contact 63% (+4%) Value for money for rent 75% (same) Satisfaction with opportunities for participation 53% (same) Keeping tenants informed 72% (-2%) The chart below shows the consistent level of overall tenant satisfaction we have achieved since 2000. - 89 - Evidence base to April 2011 Health and wellbeing Overall health in Croydon is similar to the England average. Average life expectancy is above average for men and women; the death rate from all causes has fallen and is lower than the national average for men and has fallen for women and is similar to the national average; early death rates from heart disease, stroke and cancer have also fallen in the last ten years. Croydon has higher than average rates of infant and neonatal mortality, In 2009/10 Croydon’s Joint Strategic Needs Assessment examined geographical health inequalities in Croydon, including differences in life expectancy and mortality rates between Croydon’s most deprived and least deprived areas113. The key findings were: 113 Life expectancy in Croydon is increasing at the same rate for all, but there is gap between the most deprived 10% of areas and the least deprived 10% of 10.6 years for men and 5.7 years for women114. All cause all age mortality rates are also falling across the borough at roughly the same rates in the most deprived and least deprived areas. However, the mortality rate was 760.3 per 100,000 for the most deprived 20% of areas and 410.5 per 100,000 for the least deprived 20% of areas. Figure 24 below shows the distribution of all cause, all age mortality rates across Croydon’s LSOAs. Tackling health inequalities – a programme for action, DH (2003). Introduced PSA target This is as measured by the 2003-07 slope index of inequality indicator used in the NHS World Class Commissioning assurance framework. Males = 10.6 years (95% confidence interval: 8.9 to 12.33); Females = 5.7 years (95% confidence interval: 3.4 to 8). Source: Association of Public Health Observatories www.apho.org.uk/resource/view.aspx?RID=75050 - 90 114 Evidence base to April 2011 Figure 24: All age, all cause mortality rates, Croydon LSOA 2002-2007 Excess deaths are the deaths from different causes that make up the gap between the most and least deprived quintiles in Croydon. Circulatory diseases, cancers and respiratory diseases cause the majority of excess deaths when comparing mortality between the most and least deprived 20% of areas in Croydon. Coronary heart disease is the single biggest cause of death in Croydon. It is significantly associated with deprivation and makes the biggest single contribution to the gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived parts of the borough. The most deprived 20% of areas in Croydon has double the coronary heart disease mortality rate than the least deprived 20% of areas115. The most deprived 20% of areas in Croydon also has double the mortality rate from cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung than the least deprived 20% of areas116. The most deprived quintile has a coronary heart disease mortality rate of 138.5 deaths per 100,000 population (95% confidence interval: 126.4 to 151.6). The least deprived quintile has a rate of 64.4 deaths per100,000 population (95% confidence interval: 58.5 to 70.8). 116 The most deprived quintile has a death rate from these cancers of 57.5 per 100,000 population (95% confidence interval: 49.7 to 66.5). The least deprived quintile has a rate of 24.4 deaths per 100,000 population (95% confidence interval: 20.6 to 28.8). - 91 115 Evidence base to April 2011 Deprivation and worklessness Vulnerable people and deprivation The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) provides a relative ranking of areas across England according to their level of deprivation. It ranks 32,482 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in England against 37 different indicators covering specific aspects of deprivation including: Income Employment Health and disability Education Skills and training Barriers to housing and services Living environment Crime. Croydon has 33 out of 220 LSOAs in the 20% most deprived areas in England. These are concentrated in Croydon’s major housing estates and in the north and west of the borough, such as Waddon or New Addington. There have been a number of changes in the most deprived LSOAs in Croydon between IMD 2004 and 2007; however, broadly speaking the situation is very similar with significant deprivation concentrated in the north and south-east of the borough. Figure 25 below shows the most deprived 20% of LSOAs in Croydon in the IMD 2004 and IMD 2007. Figure 25: IMD 2004 and 2007, Croydon Only one LSOA in Croydon falls within the 5% most deprived areas in England. However, four areas fall within the 6-10% bracket and a further twenty-eight fall within the 11-20% bracket. - 92 - Evidence base to April 2011 Twenty nine LSOAs in Croydon fall into the 20% least deprived (most wealthy) areas in England. These are located in eight wards in Croydon in the south of the borough. Selsdon and Ballards has six areas in the least deprived 20%. Children and young people The following issues are particularly relevant to the lives of children in Croydon and to the opportunity they have to gain a good start in life and thrive. Overcrowding: Nationally, applying the bedroom standard, 2.7% of households are overcrowded, however, overcrowding in London is significantly higher at 6.8% of all households. Croydon’s level of overcrowding is comparable to the average of overcrowding in outer London of 12% using the census measure of overcrowding. More than half of overcrowded households live in deprived areas; it disproportionately affects the social rented sector and has an adverse effect on health, children’s physical development and education. The Overcrowding Reduction Strategy, published in January 2010 was commended by the CLG. The strategy’s key actions include: Delivering 50-64 new council homes Ensuring 30% of new affordable homes have 3 bedrooms Ensuring 20% of new affordable homes have 4+ bedrooms Carrying out 17 extensions and 1 de-conversion between 2009-11 Looked after children: Croydon has a very high number of looked after children compared to the London and national average due to the location of a UK border agency Public Enquiry Office at Lunar House on Wellesley Road. In 2009 nationally there were 60,900 looked after children in England, including 10,690 in London. Croydon were responsible for 1075 looked after children, more than three times the London average. In 2009/10 we provided private sector accommodation for 185 care leavers. ASB and diversion through play schemes: Looking at 2009/10 we focused action on creating diversionary opportunities to reduce youth offending and gang-related crime, including allocating the £200,000 youth provision budget, with the involvement of local residents, to provide youth activities on estates: 25 generic, four targeted and eight sports sessions contributing obtaining £150,000 Playbuilder government funding for natural play areas on three social housing sites (one a joint project with Amicus Horizon HA) through the DAAT we reviewing service arrangements and establishing a colocated team of workers to support around 180 vulnerable young people with substance misuse needs. Housing management service – the key figures Providing an effective housing management and maintenance service is crucial to the providing an environment that supports and maintains the continued development of a strong successful community. The links between poor maintenance, the broken window effect, and incidence of vandalism, anti-social behaviour and crime are well known. Similarly the absence of effective housing - 93 - Evidence base to April 2011 management, particularly involving an absence of any presence on housing estates and the absence of resident participation is also associated with the decline of an estate and the area it is situated in. The annual business plan statistical appendix returns provides a wide range of housing management and maintenance performance data from the average energy efficiency of a council home, to the average time taken to attend to an urgent repair, to the percentage of rent collected. This data provides a good picture of a landlord’s overall performance. The charts below show Croydon’s performance compared to other London boroughs from 2002/3 to 2009/10. Note on charts: Green upper quartile – shows the range of London boroughs performance from the upper quartile to the maximum or minimum value (depending upon whether a higher or lower value represents better performance) Orange upper mid quartile – shows the range of London boroughs performance from the median to the upper quartile Orange lower mid quartile - shows the range of London boroughs performance from the lower quartile to the median. Red lower quartile - shows the range of London boroughs performance from the lower quartile to the minimum value (depending upon whether a higher or lower value represents better performance). Percentage of non-decent homes: This performance indicator measures the progress a local authority has made towards meeting the government’s decent homes target. Croydon is one of the few London boroughs to have achieved the decent homes target and has consistently been in the top 25% of performers in London since 2004-05. The Percentage of Non-Decent Homes 100% % Non decent homes 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 42% 38% 40% 23% 30% 20% 20% 17% 10% 8% 4% 10% 0% 2002-03 2003-04 Upper Quartile 2004-05 2005-06 Upper Mid Quartile 2006-07 2007-08 Lower Mid Quartile 2008-09 0% 2009-10 Lower Quartile 2010-11 Croydon Urgent repairs: This performance indicator measures the proportion of urgent repairs, defined by the right to repair regulations, which are completed within the government’s set timescales; Croydon’s performance in completing urgent repairs on target has steadily improved over the past nine years from 94% to over 99%. The - 94 - Evidence base to April 2011 2010/11 performance is the 2nd highest in London, up from joint 11th in 2009/10. The difference between the top 10 performers is only 1.6%. Urgent Repairs Completed Within Government Time Limits 99.2 100 98.0 98 % repairs within government time limits 96.0 96 98.0 94.0 96.0 96.0 94 92.0 92 93.0 90 88 86 84 82 80 2002-03 2003-04 Upper Quartile 2004-05 2005-06 Upper Mid Quartile 2006-07 2007-08 Lower Mid Quartile 2008-09 2009-10 Lower Quartile 2010/11 Croydon Average time to complete non-urgent repairs: This performance indictor measures how long it takes a local authority on average to complete a non-urgent repair. Croydon’s performance has been very consistent over the past four years at around ten days on average and has improved by 4.4 days since 2002-03. This is 2 days below the very slowly improving average of all London boroughs. The Average Time Taken to Complete Non-Urgent Repairs 30.0 Average number of days 25.0 20.0 15.0 15.0 12.0 12.0 11.0 9.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 2008-89 2009-10 10.6 5.0 0.0 2002-03 2003-04 Lower Quartile 2004-05 2005-06 Lower Mid Quartile 2006-07 2007-08 Upper Mid Quartile - 95 - Upper Quartile 2010-11 Croydon Evidence base to April 2011 Average time taken to relet a council dwelling: This indicator counts the number of days it takes the local authority to repair and relet a council home. Croydon’s performance has shown a significant improvement since 2002-03, reducing the average relet period by 14 days. This performance has been either on or slightly higher than the London average over the past four years. 2010/11 performance is only two and a half days longer than the upper quartile. The Average Time Taken to Relet a Council Dwelling 115 Average number of days 95 75 55 37 37 40 36 39 28 35 15 2002-03 2003-04 Lower Quartile 2004-05 2005-06 Lower Mid Quartile 2006-07 2007-08 Upper Mid Quartile 25 27 2008-09 2009-10 Upper Quartile 23 2010/11 Croydon Average weekly management cost: This performance indicator measures the average cost of managing a council home (excluding spending on repairs). Croydon’s average weekly management cost has increased since 2002-03 as have the majority of London boroughs; however, a significant minority of London boroughs have seen their average costs reduce. The calculation of this performance indicator, however, is very complicated and it may be that the way management costs are calculated and applied to this indicator is not consistent across all London boroughs. Croydon’s average weekly management costs reduced by £1 per week (3.7%) between 2009/10 and 2010/11. - 96 - Evidence base to April 2011 The Average Weekly Management Cost £50 £45 £40 £35 £30 £26.95 £23.43 £25 £22.08 £25.95 £23.88 £21.16 £20.11 £20 £17.74 £15.62 £15 £10 2002-03 2003-04 Lower Quartile 2004-05 2005-06 Lower Mid Quartile 2006-07 2007-08 Upper Mid Quartile 2008-09 2009-10 Upper Quartile 2010/11 Croydon Average energy efficiency rating (SAP) of a council home: This performance indicator looks at the average energy efficiency rating of a council home as measured through a standard assessment procedure (SAP). The SAP was revised recently to use a slightly different scale (1 to 100 rather than 1 to 120) to measure the energy efficiency (SAP 2005) and this revision was applied to the performance indictor in 2009-10. This accounts for the reduction in rating across the board in 2009-10. Croydon’s performance has been consistently been in or very close to the top 25% of London boroughs over the past nine years. The Average SAP Rating of Council Homes 90 85 79 80 78 76 75 70 65 71 72 2004-05 2005-06 69 70 2009-10 2010/11 66 65 60 55 50 2002-03 2003-04 Upper Quartile Upper Mid Quartile 2006-07 2007-08 Lower Mid Quartile 2008-09 Lower Quartile Croydon Overall tenant satisfaction with the landlord: This performance indictor measures how satisfied a sample of council tenants are with the performance of the council as their landlord. The survey was last carried out in 2008 and Croydon’s satisfaction rating fell slightly from 74% to 72%, however, overall tenant satisfaction in Croydon - 97 - Evidence base to April 2011 has been consistently over 70% since 2000 and has been in the top 25% of London Boroughs over the past ten years. % tenants satisfied with landlord Overall satisfaction with the landlord 80% 74% 73% 74% 2003-04 2006-07 72% 60% 40% 2000-01 Upper Quartile Upper Mid Quartile Lower Mid Quartile 2008-09 Lower Quartile Croydon Overall housing management performance: The data set out above shows Croydon has made consistent improvements in most areas of its housing management service over the past eight years, and has been a front runner in making council homes decent, delivering tenant satisfaction and improving the energy efficiency of its dwellings. Average weekly management cost stands out as one area to look into further, particularly at the way costs are identified and calculated in other boroughs. Key issues: Crime in Croydon has fallen significantly in recent years in line with the national trend The boroughs crime hot spots are in and around the town centre Complaints about anti-social behaviour on council estates mainly concern noise and environmental nuisance such as graffiti, rubbish and untidy gardens However, residents of Croydon still express concern about crime and about personal safety The borough has pockets of significant deprivation scattered throughout the borough, although generally concentrated more in the north, central and south east Croydon’s most deprived areas map onto the borough’s major housing estates in the north and west of the borough, such as Waddon or New Addington Life expectancy in Croydon is increasing at the same rate for all, but there is gap between the most deprived 10% of areas and the least deprived 10% of 10.6 years for men and 5.7 years for women Croydon’s housing management service has delivered significant improvements over the past eight years Croydon has been in or very close to the top 25% of London boroughs in delivering tenant satisfaction, decent homes and improving the energy efficiency of council homes - 98 - Evidence base to April 2011 6. CONCLUSION The most telling evidence in the evidence base is that showing the decline in house building since the 1980’s. The contribution made by local authorities to housing supply in the 1950s and 60s has not been matched by housing associations in recent decades. The Barker Review clearly identified the scale of the problem in 2004; however, to date the housebuilding targets we have set ourselves as a country have not been met. This progressively acute problem of declining housing supply has contributed to many of the challenges we are currently grappling with including housing affordability, homelessness and rough sleeping, worklessness, lack of mobility, residualisation, polarisation and social exclusion. Population growth is the other significant issue. In areas of the country such as London, population growth not only increases housing demand, it also leads increases housing need as a result of the increasing diversity of the population. Other demographic pressures including the increasing age profile of the population, the increasing life expectancy of people with physical and learning disabilities and the increasing number of people with complex needs result in further pressures to increase the supply of affordable housing. Croydon has both cheaper house prices and cheaper rents than most of London, but by the same token our residents tend to earn less. Croydon has the highest level of mortgage possession claims in London and one of the highest levels of rent possession claims which suggests that far more of our residents living in market housing are at the very limits of their resources and more vulnerable to the impact recession and economic fluctuations than other areas of London. Croydon was the first borough to halve its use of temporary accommodation and has seen significant reductions in homelessness over the past few years. There are worrying signs of increasing homelessness following the credit crunch and recession, however. It is estimated we do not need any additional supported housing in Croydon in the near future, however, there are a number of client groups for which the need for housing support has begun to change quite dramatically in recent years including an increase in young people with learning disabilities, people presenting as homeless because of domestic violence and a decrease in the number of teenage parents needing support. The council, a local authority landlord, has been one of the front runners in London in many areas of housing management, including making council homes decent, improving their energy efficiency and in delivering tenant satisfaction. The housing strategy for Croydon will need to take on the challenges of affordability, population growth and an increasingly diverse and ageing population that are common to all areas of London and the South East. It will also have to contribute to delivering Government policy in terms of decent homes, tackling homelessness and improving the energy efficiency of our housing and reducing carbon emissions. - 99 - Evidence base to April 2011 It will also need to show the way in areas where Croydon is one of the leaders such as homelessness and community engagement. Croydon’s housing strategy will also need to address some of the issues that are particularly significant to the borough such as: affordable housing for households on low incomes providing housing for young people with learning disabilities in transition domestic violence through providing support, intervention, accommodation and additional security and protection identifying and delivering housing suitable for wheelchair users to meet current unmet need entrenched rough sleeping though outreach, joint working and befriending We hope you have found the evidence base informative, thought provoking and that it has clearly set out the issues to be considered in developing a housing strategy that will take us forward to 2015. However, if you have any queries concerning the information included in this document, or wish to discuss any of the points made please contact the housing strategy manager in the department of adult services, health and housing, the contact details are provided below: Write to: David Morris, housing strategy manager, DASHH, Croydon council, Taberner House, Park Lane, Croydon CR9 3JS Telephone: 020 8726 6000 ext 60539 Email: david.2.morris@croydon.gov.uk Web site: www.croydon.gov.uk/democracy/consultations/housing-strategy - 100 -