Questions Chapter 4 1 What are the chief limitations of the income-expenditure model? Discuss the shape and properties of the SAS. What kind of an SAS curve has been assumed in the incomeexpenditure model? The income-expenditure model is only a simple model and is essentially a fixed price model. There is no role for changes in prices or changes in the supply of money (see page 102). Shape and properties of the SAS curve (see page 103-6): The SAS curve shows the price level required for firms to be willing to produce each possible level of output. When drawing the SAS some of the factors are assumed constant: the basic wage rate price of imported goods productivity of the workforce profit per unit. At low levels of output there is spare capacity and the SAS is relatively flat. With increasing output existing plant and machinery are more fully utilised. Bottlenecks and shortages of appropriately skilled labour may occur; it becomes relatively more costly to produce extra output and the SAS curve starts to slope upwards. At near full capacity it becomes more and more costly to increase output. The SAS curve begins to slope upwards more steeply as the economy approaches full capacity. In the income/expenditure model the SAS curve is assumed to be horizontal –firms would supply any amount they could sell at existing prices. 2 What is the justification for the long run AS curve being vertical? At the LAS: all resources are allocated with maximum efficiency (i.e. at the limits of the PPF). At full capacity level, firms cannot exceed this level on a sustained basis no matter what price is charged (see text page 107). 3 How could New Zealand policymakers attempt to shift the long run AS curve to the right? What factors have shifted it to the right in the last ten years? Policy makers might shift the LAS out to the right by: An increase in investment and introduction of new technology and better forms of organisation (increasing productive capacity) an increase in the labour force (immigration, higher participation, means more output can be produced from existing capital stock) an increase in skill of labour force (human capital – increase in productive capacity via improvement in productivity).Labour market policies to encourage the retraining of labour should improve productivity. The LAS has shifted to the right over the last ten years as net immigration has added to the labour supply. The adoption of new technology such as in the communications has increased productive capacity. There has been more investment in human capital and labour market policies have assisted firms in making better use of their capital stock. Long-term sustainable growth rate reflects the speed at which the LAS curve is shifting outwards. The average growth rate over the last 15 years of the past century was low indicating that growth in LAS was weak. More recently there has been a modest improvement in the long-run sustainable growth rate. 4 What is stagflation, and what could cause it to occur? How does it differ from an inflationary gap? Stagflation is the combination of inflation and rising unemployment. It may occur if the SAS shifts inward. (The AD may be shifting out slowly at the same time.) Hence, we tend to get rising prices and rising unemployment (as income levels fall) see Figure. 4.10. Stagflation may also lead to an inflationary spiral developing (see Figure 4.11). Stagflation in the 1970s was triggered by the supply shocks (oil shocks). Import and transportation price rises caused the shift in of the SAS, while aggregate demand was expanding only slowly. In the mid 2000s the rising world price of oil may once again have a stagflationary impact. An inflationary gap is when the economy is operating (temporarily) beyond the full employment level (Yf) and combines inflation with low unemployment. The two situations are illustrated below. \ 5 New Zealand was officially ‘in recession’ in 1998. Draw a recessionary gap diagram and explain carefully how the self-correcting mechanism might, in theory, ‘cure’ the problem. In fact the economy grew strongly as exports recovered and domestic spending increased. Sketch this on your diagram. Unemployment should lead to wage reductions (or less rapidly rising wage rates), causing lower costs for firms. This shifts the SAS curve out, as firms produce more at each price level. The economy moves down the AD curve, prices fall and output rises. The increased consumption may be because consumers feel wealthier (lower prices) and buy more; firms invest more (lower interest rates) and overseas countries purchase more goods because NZ is more competitive. Note: if AD is steep, the self-correcting mechanism will be ineffective. The process may also be very slow. Actual recovery since 1998 began from export recovery from lower $NZ. This shifted the AD curve outward while the SAS also shifted up because of higher import prices. Movement of SAS was also influenced by tariff reduction and parallel importing (moves SAS down by making imports cheaper), and by ending of the drought (moves SAS outward). Inflationary pressures became evident by 2000, and by early 2004 the NZ dollar was again at historic highs with some evidence the economy was slowing . (Note that SAS curve could shift up or down, depending on the net effect of the various factors influencing it. By late 2000 it was probably shifting up because of the impact of higher oil prices and the effect of the lower $NZ on import prices.) 7. What are the factors today that are impacting on SAS and AD? What is the overall effect on (Y) and (P)? Answers to this question will probably include discussion of: the increase in oil prices especially in 2004 (affecting SAS) Impact of government’s budget (increased transfers to families in 2004) political events (affecting AD via impact on confidence and thus on spending plans) business confidence (affecting AD via impact on spending plans) the fortunes of the export sector reflecting world markets (affecting AD) exchange rate changes (affecting both AD and SAS) impact of labour laws, and other government policy (affecting SAS) tax changes (affecting AD, and also SAS if they impact on business costs) changes in tariff policy, if any (affecting SAS).