To:
Voter.com/Battleground Subscribers and Interested Parties
From:
Celinda Lake, Vicki Shabo, and Stephen Rabin
Re:
The Democratic Perspective on the Latest Voter.com/Battleground
Tracking Data
Date:
September 15, 2000
With the presidential race now in a dead heat and the generic congressional ballot
continuing to break slightly toward the Democrats, the elections of 2000 are looking
promising for Democrats. The tremendous gains Al Gore has made in since the
Republican and Democratic conventions – and the real affinity that voters now seem to
have for the Democratic nominee – suggest the presidential race is now Al Gore’s to lose.
If Gore succeeds in capturing the White House, he may even provide coattails in key
congressional districts and give the Democrats control of Congress.
However, despite Democratic consolidation and gains among key voting blocs, there is
still much work for Gore and Democrats to do in solidifying support among voters who
are still on the fence. Democrats must continue to make their case to wavering voters,
including younger, white “Reagan” seniors, white married working moms, non-college
women, and, to a lesser extent, non-college men, by focusing on their working family
agenda and by persuading risk-averse voters that Gore and the Democrats offer the best
chance for continued prosperity and economic security. The waitress mom and her own
mother may well determine the 2000 elections.
A strong GOTV effort is also important to Democratic efforts, particularly an effort that
is focused on mobilizing African-American voters, downscale voters, and unmarried
voters. Unmarried women, currently one of the Democrats’ most loyal base groups, are a
new GOTV target for Democrats.
Democratic Analysis/Voter.com/Battleground poll for week ending September 15 th
page 2
The Presidential Contest
With Democratic voters finally paying attention to the Presidential elections and to the
Democratic nominee, Al Gore’s position in the presidential race has improved
dramatically. Gore’s permanent post-convention bounce, coupled with gaffes from the
Bush camp and the RNC, has spelled the end of George W. Bush’s honeymoon period
with voters.
At the start of the post-Labor Day period, polls including the Voter.com/Battleground,
show the contours of Gore’s dramatic gains and suggest the strong possibility of a Gore
victory:
 The race in Midwestern battleground states has tightened to small single digits
from the wide double-digit gaps that polling showed during the summer.
 The gender gap has clearly emerged, with men and women supporting Bush and
Gore by equal margins and with equal intensity. In an electorate that is 52%
female, this means women could once again decide the presidential election.
 Gore has gained dramatically with both younger “Reagan” seniors and older
“Roosevelt” seniors. While there is still additional work to do in strengthening
Gore’s winning vote margins among these high propensity voters, older seniors
are now Gore supporters. Support among Reagan seniors still needs to be
solidified with persuasion efforts – the prescription drug issue is a key voting
issue for this group.
 Gore’s support has grown exponentially among independent voters, particularly
among independent women – at the height of the Republican bounce, he was
down among these voters by solid double digit margins, and now he leads among
independents overall and leads among independent women by double digits.
 Democratic voters, who were anything but unified behind Gore at the close of the
Republican convention, now show equal affinity for their candidate as Republican
voters do for George W. Bush. Further, Democrats’ and liberals’ fleeting
flirtation with Ralph Nader has ended. His base of support is now small and
concentrated among independents and in the West.
 Core Democratic constituencies, including union voters and African-American
voters, are behind Gore. While these voters were relatively disengaged from the
campaigns in the spring and summer, they are now more mobilized and are more
likely than voters overall to say they are almost certain to vote.
 Hispanic voters’ initial flirtation with George W. Bush throughout the spring and
summer has ended. While the Gore campaign cannot take this voting bloc’s
loyalty for granted, and while Gore must continue to show Hispanic voters that
his working family agenda for children’s health care and better education will
help their communities and their families, Hispanics are now in Gore’s camp.
Lake Snell Perry & Associates
Democratic Analysis/Voter.com/Battleground poll for week ending September 15 th
page 3
 Voters who are undecided in the presidential race continue to break towards
Democratic congressional candidates, suggesting that Gore has more room to pick
up undecided voters, who are disproportionately young, downscale, and
independent.
 While Democrats still have work to do in winning over male audiences, bluecollar men are now inclined towards Gore, as are unmarried men. Gore’s populist
message is working to woo these groups.
 Gore’s position among both upscale and downscale women has solidified, with
non-college women now supporting the Democratic nominee. Unmarried women
and working women continue to be among Gore’s strongest supporters.
 In the post-convention period and despite a continued “marriage gap,” Gore has
also gained significantly among married women, including this election cycle’s
bellwether white married moms and white married working moms. Notably, the
marriage gap remains greater than the gender gap in this election cycle.
Voters’ Views of the Candidates
The pre-convention dynamic – where voters were both intrigued by a candidate they
perceived as fresh and new and indifferent to a sitting Vice President – is gone. Voters
now have equally positive impressions of both Gore and Bush.
 Gore’s favorability margin has more than doubled among voters overall and
among independent voters, while Bush’s favorability margin has been cut by
double digits among voters overall and in half among independent voters.
 Noticeably, undecided voters are still very much in play – undecided voters have
equally favorable impressions of both candidates.
The Congressional Elections
While the presidential race is characterized by significant movement in the postconvention period, the congressional elections are characterized by very little movement.
Democrats continue to hold a narrow advantage in the generic congressional ballot as
they have all summer. However, underneath the overall numbers, Democrats have
significant strengths.
 The congressional gender gap is smaller than the presidential gender gap.
Democrats are only narrowly losing men in the generic congressional ballot, and
are winning women – particularly working women, unmarried women, and noncollege women. Unmarried men are also supporting the Democrats by a solid
margin. There is an interesting class pattern emerging among women – college
Lake Snell Perry & Associates
Democratic Analysis/Voter.com/Battleground poll for week ending September 15 th
page 4
educated women support Gore more strongly than they support Congressional
Democrats, while patterns of support among non-college women are the opposite.
 Democrats are comfortably winning both older and younger seniors, who have
undoubtedly been watching recent debates over Social Security and prescription
drug coverage.
 Democrats continue to receive solid support among core constituencies, including
African-American voters and Hispanic voters.
 Core swing voters include independents, who favor Congressional Democrats by
a narrow margin, and married women, who favor Congressional Republicans by a
narrow margin. The Midwest continues to be in play congressionally, as it does
presidentially.
The National Mood
Voters are now decidedly more positive than they were at the close of the Republican
convention. As we have maintained since early in this election cycle, a positive national
mood will help Gore and Democratic candidates. Gore voters are solidly optimistic about
the direction of the country, while Bush voters are solidly negative.
 In a change from the past several Battleground surveys, undecided voters in the
presidential race now believe things in the country are going in the right direction;
during the spring and summer, undecided voters were pessimistic about the
direction of the country.
The Issue Agenda
While the issue agenda remains diffuse, education is still voters’ top priority for the next
president. Other top voter concerns include health care, taxes and spending, moral
values, and Social Security/Medicare. While the Voter.com/Battleground poll does not
ask voters which candidate they favor on each of these issues, another national poll out
this week (ABC News/Washington Post) shows that registered voters favor Gore on
education, health care, Social Security and Medicare, hold both candidates in equal
esteem on moral values (a significant improvement for Gore since earlier this year), and
narrowly favor Bush on the traditionally-Republican tax issue.
 Among independent voters, education and health care are top priorities, followed
by moral values. These cross-pressured voters are likely to hear from both
candidates on these issues, who will strive to frame education and health care in
terms of values.
 Education is the clear top priority for undecided voters, and on this issue among
voters overall, Gore is regaining a base.
Lake Snell Perry & Associates
Democratic Analysis/Voter.com/Battleground poll for week ending September 15 th
page 5
Mobilization
As the election nears, core Democratic constituencies are becoming more engaged in the
elections and rivaling their core Republican constituency counterparts in terms of turnout.
 While Republicans are still more likely than Democrats (and than voters overall)
to say they are certain to vote, Democratic audiences including AfricanAmericans, union voters, working women, and college educated women are now
energized by these elections.
 Democrats need to make gains in mobilization among Hispanic voters, noncollege women, younger women, non-college men, and unmarried men.
Lake Snell Perry & Associates