Nathan-MSI Group MADAGASCAR AGOA JUMPSTART PROJECT Competitiveness Audit of Madagascar’s Cotton, Textiles, and Garments Sector prepared for USAID/Madagascar by Lynn Salinger Nathan Associates Inc. Arlington, Virginia September 28, 2003 The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development. ii Competitiveness Audit of Madagascar’s Cotton, Textiles, and Garments Sector LIST OF ACRONYMS .......................................................................................................................................... vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................................................... vii 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................. 1 Background....................................................................................................................................................... 1 Madagascar Textile Competitiveness Audit Team ............................................................................................ 2 Audit Scope of Work ......................................................................................................................................... 2 Field Methodology ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Guiding Questions ............................................................................................................................................ 3 2. BRIEF RECAP OF AGOA BENEFITS FOR TEXTILES-GARMENTS............................................................. 5 AGOA I & II Textile and Apparel Benefits ......................................................................................................... 5 Implementation Record to Date ........................................................................................................................ 6 Preparing for AGOA III.................................................................................................................................... 10 Preparing for a Global Market After Quotas .................................................................................................... 12 3. COMPETITIVENESS AUDIT APPROACH .................................................................................................... 13 Vertical vs. Pipeline integration ....................................................................................................................... 13 Competitiveness Variables Examined by This Audit ....................................................................................... 17 Global Textile Sector Competitiveness Examples .......................................................................................... 19 4. COMPETITIVENESS OF MADAGASCAR’S COTTON-TEXTILES-GARMENTS VALUE-CHAIN ............... 24 Outline of Madagascar’s Cotton, Textiles, and Garments Sector ................................................................... 24 Raw Materials: Seed Cotton Production, Ginning, and Fiber Production ........................................................ 24 Intermediate Textile Inputs: Fabric Production................................................................................................ 35 Final Garments: Clothing Assembly and Export ............................................................................................. 40 5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................................................. 53 Diversity of Competitiveness Strategies ......................................................................................................... 53 Priorities for Madagascar ................................................................................................................................ 53 Appendices ........................................................................................................................................................ 57 A. What is “Competitiveness?”........................................................................................................................ 57 B. Cotton Production Costs, Profitability, and Reference Prices ..................................................................... 59 C. Survey of Developing Country Electricity Markets ...................................................................................... 67 D. List of Contacts .......................................................................................................................................... 79 E. Literature References ................................................................................................................................. 83 iii ILLUSTRATIONS Tables Table 1: Cotton-Textiles-Clothing Sector Competitiveness Strategy : Priority Actions ....................... ix Table 2: Cotton-Textiles-Clothing Sector Competitiveness Strategy : Complementary Actions ......... x Table 3: Economic Activity of Free Zone Companies, Antananarivo & Antsirabe, 2000 ....................... 1 Table 4: U.S. Imports Under AGOA ............................................................................................................ 6 Table 5: Total Textiles & Apparel Shipments to U.S. ................................................................................ 7 Table 6: Madagascar Apparel Exports to U.S............................................................................................ 8 Table 7: Selected U.S. Clothing Category Import Duties.......................................................................... 9 Table 8: U.S. Clothing Imports from Selected FTA Partners and Partners-to-be, 1999-2002 .............. 10 Table 9: AGOA-Related Upstream Textile Investments .......................................................................... 20 Table 10: Madagascar Seed Cotton Production, 1971-2002................................................................... 28 Table 11: Madagascar Cotton Lint Sales ................................................................................................. 30 Table 12: Estimates of Farm-Level Financial Productivity ..................................................................... 31 Table 13: Estimates of Ginnery-Level Economic Profitability ............................................................... 32 Table 14: Madagascar Seed Cotton Producer Prices (1st Quality) ........................................................ 34 Table 15: Madagascar Imports of Silk, Wool, Cotton, and MMF Products, 2001 .................................. 36 Table 16: Suppliers of Imported Cotton Fabrics to Madagascar, 2001 ................................................. 37 Table 17: Global Sources of U.S. Clothing Imports ................................................................................ 41 Table 18: Madagascar Garment Exports, 2001........................................................................................ 43 Table 19: Labor Cost in Men’s Shirt Production ..................................................................................... 48 Table 20: Cost of Seed Cotton Production, Toliara 2002/03 .................................................................. 59 Table 21: Cost of Seed Cotton Production, Mahajanga 2003 (HASYMA) .............................................. 61 Table 22: Cost of Seed Cotton Production, Mahajanga 2003 (Northwest Producers’ Union) ............. 63 Table 23: Reference Price for Cotton Fiber (Import-Substitution) ......................................................... 65 Table 24: Electricity Prices for Industrial Consumers ............................................................................ 70 iv Figures Figure 1: Evolution of Cotton Production................................................................................................ 25 Figure 2: Evolution of Cotton Yields ........................................................................................................ 25 Figure 3: World Cotton Lint Prices........................................................................................................... 33 Figure 4: Comparison of HASYMA & World Prices ................................................................................ 34 Figure 5: Porter Competitiveness Diamond ............................................................................................ 49 Figure 6: Real Income and Electricity Consumption (2000) ................................................................... 68 Figure 7: World Industry Electricity Rates, 2000..................................................................................... 69 Figure 8: Industry Electricity Rates, Newly Industrializing Countries................................................... 69 ***** About the author: Lynn Salinger is a Senior Economist with Associates for International Resources and Development (AIRD), Cambridge, Massachusetts (lsalinger@aird.com). Sylvia Ciesluk, a research associate with AIRD, prepared the appendix on developing country electricity market trends. AIRD (www.aird.com) is a member of the Nathan-MSI Group under the SEGIR/General Business, Trade, and Investment IQC with USAID. ***** v LIST OF ACRONYMS AGOA Africa Growth and Opportunity Act ATRIP Africa Trade and Investment Program CAPE Comité d’Appui et de Pilotage pour la Relance des Entreprises (Committee for Support and Guidance of Private Sector Renewal) CBP U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border Patrol CBTPA Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act CFDT Compagnie française pour le développement des fibres textiles EPZ Export processing zone FDI Foreign direct investment FMG Malagasy franc FTA Free trade agreement GEM Groupement des Entreprises de Madagascar (Madagascar’s Enterprise Association) GEFP Groupement des Entreprises Franches et Partenaires (Association of Duty-Free Enterprises and Partners) GSP Generalized System of Preferences IPP Independent Power Producers kwH Kilowatt hour MMF Man-made fiber MWh Megawatt hours QIZ Qualifying industrial zone R&D Research and development SAPP Southern African Power Pool SGS Société Générale de Surveillance SME Square-meters equivalent TPP Taxe sur les produits pétroliers USTR U.S. Trade Representative’s Office VAT Value-added tax WCO World Customs Organization WFD Workforce development vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A broad view is taken here of Madagascar’s cotton, textiles, and clothing sectors to consider the impact that the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act has had to date and the potential impact of pending changes in the U.S. and international trade regimes for textiles and clothing on the Malagasy economy through exports and job creation. The momentum first created by AGOA in Madagascar – which quickly became the third largest exporter (after Lesotho and Kenya) to the U.S. market, measured in volume – ebbed in 2002. This competitiveness audit was charged with assessing the country’s prospects for re-stimulating clothing manufacture and export. The analysis takes as given two market access rule changes that will fundamentally change the competitive position of Madagascar in the world apparel market. Whether Madagascar can compete under present conditions is of less interest than whether Madagascar can continue to compete when AGOA and the multilateral Agreement on Textiles and Clothing are amended or expire. The analysis points to some actions that need to be undertaken at the individual company level, as each firm pursues its own combination of supplier and marketing relationships, product niches, and production models to advance its particular competitiveness strategy. The analysis also highlights policy issues whose resolution by government is critical in order to maintain a commercial environment that continues to welcome foreign investment and contractor relationships, promote exports, and create new employment opportunities for the Malagasy people. UNDERSTANDING THE DETERMINANTS OF COMPETITIVENESS Global competitiveness in the textile and clothing business is an ever-shifting bar. It used to be enough to be a lower cost supplier to the U.S. market, relative to U.S. costs of production. Once some measure of export success was achieved, exporters had to pay attention to quotas, those bilateral quantitative restrictions in specific product categories that were applied by protectionist importers to regulate imports. Now, with a far larger share of total apparel consumption in industrial countries supplied by foreign producers, the political pressure for protection has ebbed somewhat. In addition, quotas are due to be dismantled, meaning that future trade will be regulated largely by import tariffs. This may suggest that countries with preferential access to the U.S. market will be more competitive than countries whose exporters must still bear full duties. However, the eagerness with which preferential trade agreements are being negotiated by the U.S. with its trade partners around the world suggests that this status may convey decreasing relative benefits over time. In addition, the most competitive suppliers now offer “full-package” services to U.S. buyers. Such services include mastery at all stages of the pipeline in order to meet buyers’ needs for speed and flexibility. It may also include the ability to source raw materials without direct assistance from buyers, the ability to introduce the necessary fabric and garment finishes required to achieve a product’s final look and feel that is key to consumers, the preparation of shipments of goods that are marked for domestic distribution among retail outlets and “ready-to-hang” on shop floors, and possibly even the ability to manage point-of-sale data in order to track sales and inventory information and manage replenishments for retailers. vii Being a low-cost supplier is still important, but it is only the first criterion that “gets you in the door.” Exporter firms need to understand how to manage the qualitative as well as quantitative aspects of competing in the market. MARKET ACCESS RULE CHANGES Two important determinants of Madagascar’s access to apparel markets in the U.S. and in the global arena will change in the next two years: September 2004 Expiration of AGOA’s Special Rule for Lesser Developed Countries The first is the scheduled expiration of the special rule that allows lesser developed African countries to procure yarn and fabric inputs from third-country (i.e. non-U.S. and non-African) suppliers. This rule is scheduled to expire September 30, 2004. After that date, AGOA beneficiaries will have to source their yarn and fabric inputs either from the U.S. or from other AGOA-eligible African suppliers. Although some stakeholders advocate an extension of the special rule to give more time for industrial investments in upstream manufacture to come on stream, it is unlikely that the third-country provision rule would be extended for more than a year or two. Malagasy companies must begin now to develop supplier relationships with African producers of yarn and fabrics as soon as possible in order to be able to comply with AGOA once the special rule on third-country sourcing expires. January 2005 Expiration of World Textiles and Apparel Quotas The second is the expiration as of January 1, 2005 of all bilateral trade quotas of textiles and clothing, under the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing. The system of product-specific quotas that regulates quantities of textiles and apparel imports into the U.S., Canada, the European Community, and Norway, is being dismantled under the auspices of the World Trade Organization. Beginning in 2005, all quotas will be gone. Firms based in large manufacturing and exporting nations, such as China, will no longer have to worry about diversifying their manufacturing bases outside of China to avoid importers’ quota restrictions. This may bring about great consolidation in global sourcing patterns. In one recent survey, U.S. firms indicated that they will source three-quarters of their product requirements from China and the remaining one-quarter from elsewhere. After January 1, 2005, Madagascar’s clothing exporters must be able to compete both in terms of cost and in terms of responding to non-cost, more qualitative demands of the marketplace if they still want to figure among the list of potential “non-China” suppliers to the U.S. market. STRATEGIES FOR IMPROVING GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS This audit recommends that actions be considered for both the short- and long-term improvement of competitiveness. Responsibilities are shared by both the public and private sector. The audit focuses on actions to be undertaken by policy makers and through public-private collaboration forums. Information on global market trends is also offered throughout this report so that private companies will have deeper insights and can plan their individual company strategies accordingly. viii Short-term priorities are those that can be undertaken largely by virtue of government decision to act. Complementary actions are those that require more substantial investment or more significant partnering and consensus-building among stakeholders. Table 1: Cotton-Textiles-Clothing Sector Competitiveness Strategy : Priority Actions Goals Priority Actions Calendar Responsible Agencies Underlying goal: Improved strategy for competitiveness Develop a joint public/private strategic plan for achieving an integrated Immediately pipeline for the cotton/textile/clothing sector. Increase representation on the Cellule de Réflexion to include trade VPM, Ministries of Trade & Industry, Finance, Immediately Energy; Cellule de Réflexion facilitation institutions, education & training providers, and others as needed. Basic goal: Increased strategic Engage firms in workshop to disseminate insights of this November 2003 competitiveness audit. USAID AGOA Jumpstart project, VPM, Ministries; planning by firms MUSBC, Cellule de Réflexion Basic goal: Commitment to resolve SGS/Customs Administration impasse. Immediately VPM, Ministries of Trade Improved market & Industry, Finance; environment to allow Cellule de Réflexion firms to respond to Modernize and render more transparent the Madagascar customs 2003-2004 VPM, Ministries of Trade price signals and administration in order to reduce transit times and unofficial fees & Industry, Finance; thus function associated with inspections. Cellule de Réflexion efficiently Make every effort to help the privatized rail line between Antananarivo 2003-2004 VPM, Ministries of Trade and Toamasina become operational as quickly as possible, in & Industry, Transport; order to reduce the transport bottleneck faced by Antananarivo- Cellule de Réflexion based manufacturers. Reduce the cost of electricity by allowing Jirama to purchase diesel 2003 and heavy fuel hors-taxes. VPM, Ministries of Trade & Industry, Energy; Cellule de Réflexion Basic goal: Confirm whether VAT obligations will again be required of EPZ firms. 2003 Ministry of Finance Resolve impasse regarding the future of HASYMA. Immediately VPM, Ministries of Trade Consider various ownership options for increasing the role of private 2003-2004 Resumption of domestic seed cotton production Basic goal: Increased density, & Industry, Agriculture; HASYMA, FOFIFA, World Bank equity participation in the sector. Work to attract new foreign direct investment into Madagascar, especially in spinning, weaving/knitting, & wet processing. 2003-2004 VPM, Ministries of Trade & Industry, Finance; vibrancy, productivity World Bank (especially of the textiles sector IFC), MUSBC ix Table 2: Cotton-Textiles-Clothing Sector Competitiveness Strategy : Complementary Actions Goals Priority Actions Calendar Responsible Agencies Complementary Promote commercial investigation and trade promotion inspection 2004-2005 Ministry of Trade & goal: Encourage tours by Malagasy cotton, textile, and clothing business leaders in Industry, U.S. increased interaction other AGOA-eligible countries. government between Malagasy cotton, textiles, Encourage participation by Malagasy cotton, textile, and clothing clothing firms and business leaders in appropriate trade fairs taking place in Africa those in other AGOA and in the U.S. 2004-2005 countries Complementary goal: Improved understanding of agronomics & economics of seed cotton and lint Reinvigorate cotton research to explore economics of long-staple 2004-2005 cotton production in Madagascar. Ministry of Agriculture, HASYMA, FOFIFA, Comparative advantage analysis of seed cotton & technical + 2004-2005 World Bank economic analysis of seed cotton & lint production. Conduct farming systems research to understand relative incentives to 2004-2005 farmers to produce seed cotton versus other crops. production Complementary Encourage participation by Malagasy customs administration 2004-2005 Ministry of Finance, goal: Modernized authorities in international forums, such as the World Customs World Bank, World and more Organization. Customs Organization transparent customs function Encourage interaction by Malagasy customs administration authorities 2004-2005 with colleagues in successfully modernizing authorities, e.g. Morocco. Complementary goal: Acquisition of workforce skills, training Develop a plan to improve the technical productivity of the chain’s workforce. 2004-2008 Ministries of Trade & Industry, Education; Expand Madagascar’s supply of mid-level managers in technical and public & private business areas, e.g. fiber and textiles engineering, technical education and training support personnel, skilled assembly operators, textile arts and providers; Cellule de fashion design, international branding, market analysts, Réflexion international sales and contracting, and logistics managers. x 1. INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND Madagascar is an island nation of 16 million people, located off the southeast coast of sub-Saharan Africa. In 1989, the country capped a decade of economic reform by creating an export processing zone (EPZ). At first sited in physical EPZs, the country switched to a “virtual” EPZ system wherein individual firms were allowed to be sited anywhere under EPZ status. Firms that export 95% of their production may access imported inputs at world prices, i.e. without paying import duties. In addition, EPZ firms enjoy capital depreciation and tax advantages. By the end of 2001, about 150 EPZ firms employed an estimated 120,000 people. These firms are concentrated in Madagascar’s two largest industrial zones, i.e. the capital city of Antananarivo and Antsirabe, located about 100 miles to its south. They export most of their goods via the key port city of Toamasina (Toamasina), 180 miles east of Antananarivo. Most EPZ firms are textile/clothing companies (Table 3), although manufacturing in other sectors also exists. Table 3: Economic Activity of Free Zone Companies, Antananarivo & Antsirabe, 2000 Sector Production Value-added (billions FMG) (billions FMG) 1236.8 335.9 Furniture & wood products 68.0 15.8 Precision medical instruments, optics, clocks 25.2 10.8 Leather, shoes 11.2 3.9 Others 32.4 12.3 1373.6 378.7 Clothing & textiles Total Source: Cadot and Nasir (2002) The existence of an export processing institutional arrangement attracted investors from Mauritius, as the price of labor began to rise following Mauritius’ successful industrialization in the 1970s and 80s,1 as well as other countries. It also enabled Madagascar-based firms to take quick advantage of new market opportunities offered by the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), passed in October 2000. In 2001, Madagascar was the third largest exporter of clothing to the U.S. market in terms of volume and the fourth largest in terms of value. Strong growth of the EPZ sector, whose value of exports rose by 8% in 2001, contributed to extremely favorable conditions in the external sector in that year. However, a six-month crisis of political transition, lasting from December 2001 to June 2002 and involving general strikes and severe transport disruptions in and out of Antananarivo, cost the 1 Mauritius’ per capita income in 1976 was $779. By 2000, it had climbed to $3794. (Pun et al., 2003, p. 50) 1 economy 12% of its GDP in 2002.2 Much of the EPZ-based textile and apparel industry was brought to its knees. An estimated 100,000 EPZ workers lost their jobs. Over a year has passed since the administration of President Ravalomanana was recognized by the international community as the legitimate government of Madagascar. The moment is now opportune to evaluate how well textile/clothing firms are recovering from the effects of the crisis and to propose measures that can be taken to jumpstart Madagascar’s clothing exports to the U.S. under AGOA. MADAGASCAR TEXTILE COMPETITIVENESS AUDIT TEAM USAID/ Madagascar’s AGOA Jumpstart Project, led by Nathan Associates, runs from June 2003 through March 2004. One of its first activities is the implementation of a competitiveness audit of the cotton/textiles/clothing cluster in Madagascar. The project will also provide business linkage and development services to Malagasy firms in handicrafts and natural products sectors. The AGOA Jumpstart textile sector competitiveness audit team consists of textile specialist Lynn Salinger and trade policy specialist Alain Pierre-Bernard. Ms. Salinger, new to Madagascar, brings previous textile industry experience to this study. She has conducted AGOA-related textile sector competitiveness audits in South Africa (1997-1998), Mali (1999, 2001), and Uganda (2001). Salinger also coached Vietnamese economists who undertook a competitiveness audit of their textile and clothing industry prior to the normalization of trade relations with the U.S. (1998, 2000). In 2002 she evaluated the potential for mutually profitable trade and investment opportunities in Morocco (including in the clothing manufacturing sector) under a bilateral free trade agreement with the United States, now under negotiation. Mr. Pierre-Bernard has been professionally active in directing energy, trade, and financial policy in Madagascar for twenty years. He is currently Trade Policy Coordinator for USAID’s Africa Trade and Investment Program (ATRIP) project in Madagascar and a respected facilitator of publicprivate sector cooperation to the benefit of the Malagasy business environment. With his deep knowledge regarding Malagasy export competitiveness, the Malagasy financial sector, and the Malagasy tax system, M. Pierre-Bernard provided invaluable guidance to this study. AUDIT SCOPE OF WORK The scope of work for this assignment called for an audit of the competitiveness, including an assessment of the potential for increased vertical integration, of Madagascar’s cotton-textilesgarment value-chain. The audit identifies bottlenecks that constrain the competitiveness of Madagascar’s clothing export sector. The audit also examines the potential for increased competitive regional collaboration in East/Southern Africa and/or increased linkage to world markets for competitively-priced, imported raw materials. The audit is meant to serve as the basis for a strategic action plan of key investments and policy decisions that the government and private sector can make to restore Madagascar’s position among AGOA beneficiaries. There have been a number of other important competitiveness-related analyses undertaken in Madagascar recently. This audit benefited from the analyses prepared by the Government of 2 IMF (2003) provides a detailed chronology and assessment of the economic and social impacts of the crisis. 2 Madagascar, the World Bank-led Integrated Framework for Trade-Related Technical Assistance, and private analysts. A full list of references consulted is provided in an appendix. FIELD METHODOLOGY The AGOA Jumpstart project is overseen by a Partners’ Committee, comprising key Malagasy stakeholders in all three sectors in which the project is active, i.e. textiles, natural products, and handicrafts. Its membership includes representatives from the following organizations: Comité d’Appui et de Pilotage pour la Relance des Entreprises (CAPE) Office of the Vice-Prime Minister; Ministries of Industry, Agriculture, Economy/Finance/Budget, Energy/Mines; Customs Service Associations of private manufacturers, small/medium enterprises, handicrafts, natural products, textile exporters Madagascar-U.S. Business Council USAID and the U.S. Embassy The competitiveness audit team met with the AGOA Jumpstart Partners’ Committee at the beginning of the audit to explain the planned study and develop stakeholder support for the strategic plan to be produced by the audit. Interviews were subsequently held with xx representatives of producers of seed cotton and ginned fiber; yarn, fabric, knitwear, and woven garments manufacturers; freight forwarding, shipping, and inspection companies; energy providers; and the government of Madagascar. A full list of contacts made by the textile competitiveness audit team is included in Appendix D. The team is grateful to all who graciously shared insights and operational data. GUIDING QUESTIONS A number of broad questions have been explored during the course of this audit: What impact has AGOA had on Madagascar’s economy? What competitiveness challenges face Madagascar? How are these affected by the elimination of the AGOA special rule regarding lesser developed countries’ exemption from yarn/fabric rules of origin requirements, scheduled for elimination in October 2004? What are the prospects for vertical integration in this industry? What factors affect the competitiveness of each stage in Madagascar’s cotton-textilesclothing value-chain? How to prioritize among the possible recommendations for action? 3 2. BRIEF RECAP OF AGOA BENEFITS FOR TEXTILESGARMENTS AGOA I & II TEXTILE AND APPAREL BENEFITS The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, enacted in October 2000 and valid until September 2008, seeks to increase commercial trade relations between the U.S. and sub-Saharan Africa. It provides for duty-free General System of Preferences (GSP) treatment for 1,800 exports from Africa. AGOA is grounded in the recognition that development of labor-intensive manufacturing has helped to industrialize and globalize economies around the world. This in turn has increased economic growth, employment, and the welfare of people around the world. Section 112 of AGOA therefore offers preferential access to the U.S. market for African garments exports, under the following conditions: 3 All existing quotas are lifted on eligible textile and apparel articles from eligible sub-Saharan African countries. Duty-free and quota-free access to the U.S. market is extended for sub-Saharan African apparel made in eligible sub-Saharan African countries from yarns and fabrics not produced in commercial quantities in the United States. Duty-free and quota-free treatment is extended for apparel made in eligible sub-Saharan countries from U.S. yarn and fabric. Under 2002 trade legislation known as “AGOA II,” knitto-shape apparel also qualifies for AGOA benefits. Duty-free and quota-free U.S. market access is extended for apparel made in eligible subSaharan African countries from “regional” (i.e. African-sourced) yarn and fabric. Imports based on regional inputs, however, are subject to an annual cap (limit). The original cap increased incrementally from 1.5 to 3.5 percent of the multibillion dollar U.S. apparel import market over AGOA’s 8-year period. The cap’s ceiling was increased to 7 percent under AGOA II. Within the regional fabric cap, a special rule allows beneficiary sub-Saharan African countries with an annual GNP of under $1,500 (“lesser developed beneficiary countries”) to use fabrics without regard for the country of origin until September 2004. AGOA II extended this language to include yarn inputs as well, regardless of the country of origin. AGOA II also designated Botswana and Namibia as lesser developed countries for the purposes of the special rule.4 3 Taken from USTR (2003). 4 Gabon and Seychelles would also not qualify because of their per capita income levels. However, neither country has applied for apparel provision eligibility. 5 IMPLEMENTATION RECORD TO DATE Of the 38 sub-Saharan countries deemed eligible to receive for general AGOA benefits, the customs visa systems of 19 countries are approved for AGOA’s apparel provisions (as of October 2003). Madagascar was deemed eligible for AGOA from inception in October 2000. In March 2001, the U.S. determined that Madagascar’s apparel visa system was effective to prevent unlawful transshipments. Table 4: U.S. Imports Under AGOA Oct00 Oct01 (million SME) -Sep01 -Sep02 -Sep03 versus 01/02 Lesotho 15.418 81.909 87.889 7.3% Kenya 10.938 28.744 48.411 68.4% 19.130 39.130 104.5% Swaziland Oct02 % Change, 02/03 Madagascar* 9.094 24.269 31.383 29.3% South Africa 2.918 13.573 25.016 84.3% Mauritius 3.382 14.048 15.994 13.9% Malawi 0.019 3.444 5.942 72.5% Namibia 5.847 Botswana* 1.237 1.823 Ethiopia 1.227 0.931 Cape Verde 47.4% 0.858 Mozambique 0.005 Uganda* 0.592 Tanzania 0.006 0.216 Ghana* 0.151 0.006 Source: Office of Textiles and Apparel, Department of Commerce, Tariff Rate Quota Utilization Tables Note: Data in bold italics represent exports utilizing the special rule on thirdcountry yarns/fabrics origin; data not so highlighted represent exports utilizing regional fabrics. *Madagascar, Ghana, and Uganda have exported minor quantities of garments utilizing regional fabric; Botswana also exported minor quantities of garments utilizing third-country fabrics under the lesser developed country special rule in 2002-03. Among these 19 countries, export success has varied widely (Table 4). In the most recent period for which data are available (October 2002 – September 2003), six countries – Lesotho, Kenya, Swaziland, Madagascar, South Africa, and Mauritius – have already exported in excess of 15 million square meter equivalents (SME). At the other end of the spectrum, Namibia, Cape Verde, and Uganda have just begun to export to the U.S. this year. Four other eligible countries, Cameroon, Rwanda, Senegal, and Zambia, have yet to export apparel to the U.S. under AGOA. 6 Madagascar ranked third among suppliers in AGOA’s first two years (measured by SME export volume in Table 4). It has now fallen to fourth place, demonstrating the dampening effect of last year’s national political crisis. Yet when this table was first constituted using data available in July 2003, Madagascar was actually in fifth place, demonstrating that the clothing export pace from Madagascar to the U.S. is apparently accelerating. Madagascar’s volume exports thus rose 29% over the previous twelve-month period. Between 2001 and 2002, the value of all U.S. textile and clothing imports rose 3% (Table 5) Figures for the first eight months of 2003 suggest that the total value of imports will exceed 77 billion in 2003. Traditional Asian suppliers such as Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan, as well as Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean Basin have experienced decreases in their market share between 2002 and the first eight months of 2003, while China, Cambodia, Vietnam, India, Pakistan, Jordan, and sub-Saharan Africa have increased their U.S. market participation. Table 5: Total Textiles & Apparel Shipments to U.S. (million $) 2001 2002 Through August 2003 World, of which: 70,240 72,183 51,845 China, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan 16,346 17,865 13,015 Caribbean Basin 9,452 9,538 6,429 Mexico 8,945 8,619 5,438 Canada 3,162 3,199 2,051 Sub-Saharan Africa, of which: 975 1,120 991 Lesotho 215 321 244 Mauritius 238 255 196 South Africa 195 200 177 Kenya 65 126 127 Madagascar 178 89 103 Swaziland 48 89 90 Source: Office of Textiles and Apparel, U.S. Department of Commerce, Major Shippers Reports A closer look at the composition of Madagascar’s exports to the U.S. market suggests differences by product type (Table 6). Over 85% of these exports in the first eight months of 2003 consists of cotton-based apparel. Although Madagascar does not yet appear to be on pace for regaining its 2001 value of exports overall, export patterns suggest increased specialization is taking place in cottonbased apparel categories, particularly with respect to women’s/girls’ slacks and men’s/boys’ knit shirts. 7 Table 6: Madagascar Apparel Exports to U.S. (million $) 2001 2002 2003 (through Aug03) Total, of which: 178 89 103 Cotton-based apparel 133 73 89 Wool-based apparel 36 9 5 9 8 9 Women’s/girls’ slacks 28 13 35 Men’s/boys’ knit shirts 15 16 16 Women’s/girls’ knit blouses 26 15 14 Men’s/boys’ trousers 30 15 13 Cotton sweaters 10 4 2 Men’s/boys’ woven shirts 12 2 1 Women’s/girls’ wool sweaters 12 3 3 Men’s/boys’ wool sweaters 13 5 2 Knit shirts, blouses 10 1 Negl. Men’s/boys’ trousers etc 2 1 2 Men’s/boys’ knit shirts 1 2 2 Other MMF apparel -- 1 1 Women’s/girls’ knit blouses 3 1 Man-made fiber (MMF)-based apparel Major cotton apparel categories Major wool apparel categories Major man-made fiber apparel categories Source: Office of Textiles and Apparel, U.S. Department of Commerce Selected tariffs into the U.S. market for Madagascar’s top ten clothing export categories are presented in Table 7. For cotton and wool garments, AGOA currently gives eligible exports a 9-20% price advantage into the U.S. market. Silk shawls only receive a 1.2% duty upon arrival into the U.S., whereas some sweaters of man-made fibers are dutied as much as 32.2%. 8 Table 7: Selected U.S. Clothing Category Import Duties HS Code Article Description General Duty (%) 610910 T-shirts, cotton 17.0 611011 Wool sweaters 16.1 611012 Cashmere (100%) sweaters 0.20 4.4 … blends 16.1 611020 Cotton sweaters 16.9 611030 Man-made fiber sweaters 0.10 … wool blend 17.0 0.20 … silk blend 6.3 0.30 … other 32.2 620342 Men’s/boys' cotton trousers, woven 16.7 620442 Women’s/girls' dresses, cotton, woven 8.8 620462 Women’s/girls' cotton trousers, woven 16.7 620520 Men's/boys' cotton shirts, woven 19.8 620920 Babies' garments, cotton 0.10 … Dresses 11.9 0.20 … Blouses 15.1 0.50 … Sunsuits 9.4 Silk shawls 1.2 621410 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Harmonized Tariff Schedule The value of such duty preferences to AGOA partners will erode as new preferential trade agreements with the United States are negotiated and more countries become eligible to export garments duty-free to the U.S. As of July 2003, the U.S. has free trade agreements (FTA) in place with Canada, Israel, Mexico, and Jordan. FTAs with Chile and Singapore have been negotiated and are awaiting ratification by the U.S. Senate. Additional bilateral or multilateral free trade agreements are currently in negotiation with Australia, Morocco, Central America (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua), and the Southern African Customs Union countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland). The current value of apparel imports from several of these countries is indicated below. As observed in some AGOA countries, FTAs have provided a strong impulse to expansion of clothing exports to the U.S. In Jordan, for example, garment exports were already promoted under an EPZlike arrangement, known as Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZ). 5 When the FTA came into effect in October 2000, however, the value of garment exports in 2002, compared with the average annual value 1995-2000, has clearly grown significantly (Table 8). Mexico’s clothing exports to the U.S., on 5 Under the Qualifying Industrial Zones amendment to the U.S.-Israel FTA, 35% of Jordan’s QIZ content must come from the QIZ directly, Israel, and/or the West Bank and Gaza. Of that, 11.7% must be from the Jordanian QIZ, 8% from Israel (7% for high technology content goods), and the remaining 15.3% may be fulfilled from the QIZ, Israel, or the West Bank/Gaza. 9 the other hand, have actually fallen since 2000, after having surged ahead of those of China. The five Central America FTA candidate countries have also witnessed a surge in their clothing exports to the U.S., due to market access benefits already extended through the Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act (CBTPA).6 In comparison, imports of garments from China have expanded 23% over the same period, while those from Vietnam have soared 2331% (albeit from a much smaller base, with 2002 imports value of $876 million). Table 8: U.S. Clothing Imports from Selected FTA Partners and Partners-to-be, 1999-2002 Country (millions $) Canada Mexico NAFTA subtotal 1999 2000 2001 2002 1595.7 7738.9 9334.6 1744.4 8623.0 10367.5 1573.6 8028.1 9601.7 1586.8 7639.2 9226.0 % growth, 1999-2002 -1% -1% -1% Israel Jordan 419.8 2.2 476.3 42.7 443.6 183.8 411.6 384.3 -2% 17603% Australia 134.6 176.0 214.7 237.4 76% 822.3 1329.0 1234.2 2195.7 277.2 5858.3 825.5 1601.9 1488.9 2416.2 338.0 6670.5 770.8 1632.0 1609.3 2437.7 378.4 6828.3 728.0 1675.2 1659.4 2501.3 433.2 6997.1 -11% 26% 34% 14% 56% 19% 52404.6 59205.5 58545.0 58712.3 12% Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Central America FTA subtotal World Total Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Note: HS 61 & 62 combined, $ millions PREPARING FOR AGOA III At the June 2003 Corporate Council for Africa AGOA meetings held in Washington, D.C., vigorous discussion addressed the issue of possible extension of the special rule for lesser developed African countries that allows third-country provision of yarn and fabric inputs beyond September 30, 2004. Proponents argue that the special rule should be maintained because current supplies of African yarn and fabric are inadequate, of inferior quality, and more expensive than international sources. Opponents, particularly those who have begun to make backward linkage investments in spinning and weaving/dyeing capacity in anticipation of the expected rules of origin requirements after September 30, 2004, argue that the rule should be allowed to expire (de Voest 2003). A compromise 6 CBTPA beneficiary countries include the five CAFTA candidates plus Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Panama, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, and British Virgin Islands. 10 position that seems to be emerging from the debate appears to be that a limited extension of an additional 1-3 years is desirable, given the present inability of most African suppliers to provide yarn and fabric inputs in the quantities and qualities and at the terms required by the world market. At a June 25, 2003 hearing of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee to consider extension of the AGOA legislation, Chairman Senator Richard Lugar observed (Lugar 2003): An even more immediate issue is the extension of the third country fabric provision for least developed countries, which is due to expire in 2004. The third country fabric provision is a complex issue, and we must find creative approaches that will extend the provision for those least developed countries that rely on it, while still maintaining incentives for the development of textile manufacturing capabilities in Africa. This issue has increasing urgency with the approach of the elimination of worldwide quotas on textiles and apparel in 2005. While the current third country fabric provision is not set to expire until September 30, 2004, we should not wait until that expiration date to take action. U.S. retailers often place orders nearly six months in advance, and they will want certainty before placing those orders. African manufacturers will need time to build capacity in advance of 2005 so they can compete with China and other Asian economies when the quotas are eliminated. U.S. policy makers are at work on a revision of the AGOA legislation, dubbed “AGOA III.” A preliminary list of AGOA III provisions has been drafted by the AGOA III Action Committee. The AGOA III Action Committee will help to draft the new legislation and work to secure its passage through the U.S. Congress. Possible textile-related provisions include (Whitaker Group 2003): Extend, enhance and protect meaningful AGOA preferences well beyond 2008. Simplify and clarify product and origin definitions currently subject to narrow and exclusionary interpretation by U.S. Customs. Encourage the provision of technical assistance to African and U.S. businesses interested in trade. Enhance textile and apparel benefits for least developed African countries by allowing some use of non-African, non-US fabric in duty-free apparel beyond the current 2004 cut-off date. Protect AGOA incentives for investment to promote a vertically integrated fiber, yarn, fabric, and apparel industry in Africa. Create a “short supply” standard for yarn and fabric not produced in the U.S. but which would be allowed duty-free access if produced in Africa. Exempt African textile and apparel production from economic impact criteria for Ex-Im Bank and OPIC support. Encourage World Bank Group and African Development Fund financing for textile and apparel production. Address transportation cost and scheduling issues that affect the competitiveness of African goods in the US market. 11 PREPARING FOR A GLOBAL MARKET AFTER QUOTAS The Agreement on Textiles and Clothing, negotiated by members of the World Trade Organization during the Uruguay Round, allows for the phased re-integration of textiles and clothing trade into the world trading system. All quantitative restrictions on imports from specific origins (i.e. quotas) will be eliminated as of January 1, 2005.7 The internationalization of clothing manufacture has been attributed by many to the existence of quotas (Cline 1990; Hamilton 1990; Minor 2002). As long as bilateral quotas are in force, exporting countries are restricted in specific product categories to exceed certain quantitative thresholds. Quotas give exporters incentives to diversify their manufacturing platforms in order to maintain supply options across a panel of countries. As platform countries became increasingly popular places to do business, exporters pushed into newly industrializing countries where the danger of triggering quota responses from protectionist importers was lower. Restrictions on the volumes that could be imported from leading Asian manufacturers contributed to the eventual displacement of clothing assembly from more developed textile platforms such as Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong into less developed export processing platforms such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Mauritius. As of 2005, general trade in textiles and clothing items will be regulated in the first instance by tariffs. The use of non-tariff barriers (e.g., standards, quality testing procedures, product certification and licensing procedures, technical barriers to trade, as well as by contingency measures such as antidumping actions and safeguards measures) will also likely increase. For instance, on July 24, 2003, U.S. textile interest groups (including representatives of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, (AMTAC), National Textile Association (NTA) and the American Textile Manufacturers Institute (ATMI) ) – citing a 112 percent increase in textile and apparel imports into the U.S. from China in 2002 – called upon the U.S. government to introduce emergency import quotas on several categories of apparel from China (knit fabric, nightgowns and robes, gloves and bras).8 In the future, Madagascar can not rely on displaced manufacture from quota-bound countries to boost Madagascar’s export capabilities. In order to attract buyer attention in the U.S. market, Malagasy clothing exports must be both cost-competitive (within the 17% average margin offered under AGOA, as long as AGOA duty preferences prevail) and prepared to meet qualitativecompetitiveness requirements as well. 7 8 With the exception of quotas on imports from non-WTO member countries, such as Vietnam. Source: www.just-style.com, www.just-style.com/news_detail.asp?art=30700. 12 3. COMPETITIVENESS AUDIT APPROACH VERTICAL VS. PIPELINE INTEGRATION What is Vertical Integration? Before proceeding to analysis of Madagascar’s industry, there are a number of strategic factors to consider. What is “vertical integration”? Is it the solution to Madagascar’s quest for enhanced clothing sector competitiveness? Do proponents in Madagascar seek vertical integration within one firm, or can the notion apply more generally across the value-chain in Madagascar? Is improved domestic vertical integration the only strategic option for Madagascar’s cotton, textiles, and clothing companies, or would regional integration be an acceptable alternative? For the textile and apparel industries, cost is no longer the sole determinant of competitiveness. Low-cost manufacturing platforms are a given. They can be found all over the world today, from Bangladesh to Vietnam to Guatemala to Lesotho. It is a given that Madagascar has to compete first on cost, just to be considered by companies’ sourcing agents. 9 Beyond cost, companies that outperform their competitors in the clothing business are those that have adopted new information systems and management practices, “participating in a well-integrated channel” (Abernathy et al. 1999, p. 3) in addition to squeezing all excess out of their cost structures. “The channel, rather than the firm, becomes the basis for competition,” notes Hammond (2001). In the U.S., industry integration has occurred both backwards and forwards, through acquisitions, partnerships, and strategic alliances (Dickerson 1999, pp. 275-278). The traditional definition of vertical integration is the one given by competitiveness guru Michael Porter: “the combination of technologically distinct production, distribution, selling, and/or other economic processes within the confines of a single firm” (Porter 1980, p. 300). However, in today’s globalized and integrated environment, vertical integration is not confined to the uniting of operations within a single enterprise. The new basis for competition is seen to be the efficiency of enhanced links among different stages of production and distribution in the retail-apparel-textile channel (Abernathy et al. 1999). Hereafter, this report will refer to this as pipeline integration. Yet at the same time that there is pressure to increase integration within or along the pipeline, there is an almost contradictory pressure for firms to shed many of the operations that have historically been managed in-house. Many firms sell off or subcontract operations that do not represent their most competitive niches in order to specialize in areas of core competency. 9 Some observers contend that the days of global sourcing are over, to be replaced by regional sourcing preferences. An American Apparel Producers’ Network survey of leading apparel brands, manufacturers, and retailers conducted in early 2003 suggested that firms intended to source 70-80% from China and 20-30% from “not-China” (Todaro 2003). They also suggested that they will increasingly prefer to source from massive suppliers with full-package capabilities. 13 Subcontractors are sought out for management of services operations for everything from personnel to cleaning functions. Why Pipeline Integration in Madagascar? How should Madagascar’s industry balance these two equally compelling, yet diametrically opposed, strategic arguments? There are three arguments in favor of a more integrated pipeline approach to both policy making and commercial strategy in this industry in Madagascar. First, what drives competitiveness in the clothing market today is the ability to bring products to market in time, just in time. Lead times are being shortened at every stage in the manufacturing process. Traditional retailing used to allow for the accumulation of large amounts of inventory, in terms of both work-in-progress and finished products. Two factors have changed that. First, there has been great concentration in the retail end of the industry. Second, changes in information technology now permit the statistical analysis of inventory and sales by stockkeeping units (SKUs). 10 The result of these shifts is that clothing retailers now have up-to-the minute information on which SKUs are selling well and need replenishment. In turn, they require manufacturers to shoulder a far greater portion of the inventory management burden in order to minimize retailers’ inventory costs and streamline the flow-through process. In some cases, even the analysis of this point-of-sale information can be outsourced directly to suppliers. For instance, the large U.S. retailer J.C. Penney subcontracts with a Hong Kong-based clothing manufacturer, TAL Apparel Ltd., to collect all dress shirts point-of-sale data from Penney’s network of retail stores (Kahn 2003). TAL analyzes this sales data and decides on behalf of J.C. Penney’s how many items to make, in what styles, colors, and sizes, manufactures them, and delivers them directly to individual stores. J. C. Penney’s today now holds almost no extra inventory of dress shirts, and is considering expanding this system to other apparel items. Second, it is easier for companies in developed economies, with more reliable infrastructure and production and logistics systems, to shed various aspects of their operations. However, in developing economies such as Madagascar’s, where the availability of such subcontracting is still quite limited and more importantly where infrastructure and production and logistics systems still endure significant risk, vertical integration – “the combination of technologically distinct production, distribution, selling, and/or other economic processes within the confines of a single firm” – is still an important possible strategy for minimizing – or at least managing – those risks and the time delays associated with them. All cotton, textiles, and clothing production in Madagascar need not take place under one commercial roof, nor even within national borders. Economic efficiency dictates one set of considerations for optimal location of industry, while political and policy concerns define a separate set of considerations. Moreover, each firm possesses its own resources in terms of factor endowments, management strengths, commercial structure, linkages with other companies domestically and abroad, etc. that will dictate a unique competitiveness strategy for that firm. Normally – assuming that local agronomic conditions are favorable – it is in a processor’s interests to locate within geographic proximity to the source of raw materials, in order to reduce the 10 A SKU is a numeric universal product code which is represented graphically on garment hang tags as a sequence of light and dark bars of differing widths. 14 cost of transportation, storage, and potential spoilage associated with shipping them long distances. However, many global seed cotton producers are not significant global manufacturers of yarn, fabric, and garments. Bales of cotton can be shipped long distances and stored in warehouses for some time without significant quality degradation. Cotton lint producers such as Mali and Uzbekistan do not process a large proportion of their production, but rather export bales of lint. This reflects, in part, the relative unattractiveness of these countries to investment capital for large-scale manufacturing projects and also in part their lack of workforce capabilities to expand into factory production. For instance, very different strategies are pursued by two of the leading exporters of cotton-based fabric and garments, China and Mexico. China, on the one hand, is integrated from cotton through textiles and to garments. China grows large quantities of seed cotton (over 5 million metric tons), supplying 94% of its own lint requirements. A tariff-rate quota on cotton lint imports protects its domestic farmers. Imports of cotton lint, yarn, and fabrics supplement own-production. Mexico, on the other hand, is a much smaller domestic seed cotton producer (only 97 thousand metric tons), but is the world’s second largest importer of cotton lint bales, importing four times its domestic production level (over 400 thousand metric tons) as well as cotton yarns and fabrics. Not surprisingly, these imports come largely from the U.S. Under the North America Free Trade Agreement, agricultural and industrial markets have grown increasingly integrated between Mexico and the U.S. This represents cross-border trade between two contiguous countries, with cotton produced in the southern U.S. not all that distant from the industrial zone of northern Mexico. Malian cotton, on the other hand, travels great distances to be bought by world importers in Asia, North Africa and the Middle East, and even elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa for processing into intermediary and final products. Even the U.S., the world’s second largest seed cotton producer, exports over 60% of its annual production to world markets. In 2002/03, 30.7 million bales were shipped to China (3.1), Mexico (2.3), Indonesia (2.2), Turkey (2.1), and other world markets. The lesson is that domestic seed cotton production is an important characteristic for some but not all of the world’s largest cotton-based textiles and clothing exporters. Changing economics of labor and goods markets can affect a country’s comparative advantage, as in the U.S. where it is no longer as profitable to process cotton. In addition, trade policies can convey other locational advantages and thus encourage investment in processing capacity in countries that do not grow significant quantities of seed cotton. Third, AGOA’s rules of origin will eventually require African apparel exporters to use U.S. or African yarn and fabric. AGOA beneficiaries do not necessarily need to grow their own seed cotton. However, spinning, weaving or knitting, dyeing, cutting, and assembly operations must take place in AGOA beneficiary countries to qualify for duty-free access to the U.S. market under AGOA. Pipeline integration – by which we do not mean the integration of commercial activities of raw material production, raw material processing, and final good manufacture under one commercial entity, but rather the adoption of a broad, pipeline view of all stages of the value-chain – both at the national and regional levels – to improve productivity, cut costs, and increase efficiencies at every stage – is the solution to meeting the competitiveness challenges in this industry. The advantages of a pipeline integration approach in Madagascar are several. First, it should help to reduce costs, by increasing market power, negotiating better purchase prices on raw materials and intermediate inputs, and gaining control over logistics services costs. Second, it should help to reduce lead times, through more coordinated planning of sourcing, production, and shipping deadlines. 15 If Malagasy firms are to reassert their position as a leading garment exporter in sub-Saharan Africa, individual companies will have to strategize at every point in the pipeline. This may mean domestic acquisition, alliance, or partnership, examples of which are popping up in Madagascar already. It may also mean acquisition, alliance, or partnership across national borders, which is also taking place. Companies from Mauritius, Sri Lanka, Hong Kong, Gulf states, and elsewhere have set up operations in Madagascar, and companies from Madagascar have ventured into Mauritius, South Africa, and elsewhere to seek acquisitions and alliances to further streamline their operations. One company in Madagascar is hoping to establish a regular, interdependent commercial relationship with a firm in South Africa whereby cotton yarn spun in Madagascar will be sent in exchange for cotton fabric knit in South Africa. Madagascar’s policy makers need to understand that this is the current inherent logic of all textile and clothing industries around the world. After remaining trade quotas expire at the end of 2004, companies in the U.S. will be forced to become internationally competitive just like companies in China, India, Madagascar, Mexico, and elsewhere. Increasing competitiveness by reducing costs and compressing lead times is not an option – the law of the market requires it. Whose Job Is It? Policy makers and private companies each have mutual areas of responsibility to consider in preparing a pipeline integration approach to improved competitiveness. The first area of shared responsibility is the development of a shared vision for improving the country’s competitiveness, or the competitivenessof particular industries. That vision should embrace an integrated view of the pipeline to understand the relative importance of issues at each stage of production, processing, and trade, in order to prioritize needed actions and assign responsibilities. The public sector’s role is to assure that public goods exist and operate efficiently to allow markets to function, i.e. to allow prices to respond to demand and supply conditions, resulting in allocation of resources to productive, rather than rent-seeking, activity. Public goods required in Madagascar by the cotton, textiles, and clothing industries include trade facilitation institutions (e.g., customs and inspection services), infrastructure (e.g., transportation and energy supply), and education (both basic and workforce development). Governments also make decisions about market interventions – prices, taxes, and subsidies – that affect cost competitiveness. Government pricing decisions relevant to this industry in Madagascar include whether to tax or de-tax the price of key inputs (e.g., petroleum, electricity), and (as long as a public enterprise is still in charge) to determine the price to producers of seed cotton. The government also makes decisions about the foreign exchange market that affect the parity of the Malagasy franc relative to international currencies, and thus the cost of Malagasy factors of production and export products converted into dollar or euro terms. Other areas of responsibility are less clearly demarcated between the public and private sector. For example, the leasing or complete privatization of transport systems operations has been shown to be a preferable alternative for delivering such services in a timely and cost-effective basis, especially where some measure of competition exists (e.g., urban bus transportation supplied by several companies or long-distance haulage services supplied by competing truck and rail options). Agricultural research and education and workforce development are other areas, where private companies are increasingly contributing to both primary and adaptive research and training. 16 On the other hand, experience around the world has shown that public enterprises are not the most efficient means of organizing agricultural sectors. For instance, states have retreated from some or all of cotton production, marketing, and ginning activities in certain West African (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal) and Central Asian (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) countries.11 Agricultural sector adjustment reforms have reduced or eliminated the role of the state in agricultural production, marketing, processing, distribution, and trade in many countries around the world. An analysis of the effect of direct (agricultural sector policies) and indirect (exchange rate, industrial sector policies) interventions on agriculture in 18 developing countries from 1960-1985 suggested that indirect policies introduced greater taxation than direct policies, the negative effect of which was not compensated by public sector investment in agriculture (Schiff and Valdes 1992). Private firms are normally responsible for developing strategic commercial relationships with suppliers, clients, and overseas buyers. However, in situations where business-to-business linkages are difficult to initiate, because of lack of language or cultural or commercial familiarity, governments sometimes support trade missions to help broker such relationships. For instance, it may be appropriate for the government of Madagascar to consider organizing/financing – or seeking donor assistance in organizing/financing – a trade mission of Malagasy clothing firms to potential yarn and fabric suppliers in sub-Saharan Africa. The purpose of such an outward mission would be to identify AGOA-compatible supplier relationships among eligible countries. Private firms are also responsible for management, worker training, investments, and strategic planning decisions that enable them to reduce costs, innovate new products and services, and maintain close commercial linkages with their business partners. Specific recommendations on strategic actions to be undertaken by specific stakeholder groups is outlined after assessing the structure and behavior of each stage of the value-chain, in the following section of this report. COMPETITIVENESS VARIABLES EXAMINED BY THIS AUDIT In the context of Madagascar’s exports under AGOA, “competitiveness” means the ability to deliver finished garments to U.S. markets at the lowest cost possible – or at least within the 17% margin afforded by the AGOA duty preference – and in compliance with international norms with respect to timing, quality, and expected volumes.12 This audit examines the competitiveness of a value-chain encompassing both homogeneous commodities (cotton lint) and differentiated end-products (fabrics, garments). With regard to homogeneous commodities, local costs of cotton lint production can be compared with international reference prices to assess comparative advantage. Since there is no single reference price for heterogeneous commodities, key margins and qualitative factors affecting competitiveness are analyzed. 11 For individual country reports, see U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service for attaché reports, http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp. 12 Appendix A includes a fuller discussion of how the term competitiveness is treated in the literature. 17 Variables Affecting Cost Competitiveness Comparative advantage, or cost competitiveness, is particularly important to producers and traders of non-differentiated commodities and the more standardized end of the garment industry. Factors affecting cost competitiveness include: Technical productivity (e.g., tons/hectare of raw cotton, textile meters/labor hour, number of garment pieces/labor hour), itself a function of: o Given factor and resource endowment levels o Extent of research and development (R&D), innovation, technology use o Management skill in combining inputs and factors of production as efficiently as possible to maximize technical productivity Financial costs (i.e. inclusive of taxes and/or subsidies) at each stage of the value-chain: o Domestic factors of production (land, developed industrial real estate, agricultural labor, skilled labor, management labor, investment capital, working capital, trade finance) o Imported inputs (e.g., fiber, fabric, trims, packaging, labels) o Intermediary inputs, such as transportation (domestic road and rail, international sea freight, international air freight), electricity, port charges, customs services, compliance with regulations, telecommunications o Official exchange rate Economic costs (excluding taxes and/or subsidies) at each stage of value-chain: o Sum of the value of taxes and/or subsidies that drive a wedge between prices actually paid by producers and prices that would obtain in the market in the absence of such distortions o Degree of overvaluation of the domestic currency relative to foreign currencies Variables Affecting Qualitative Competitiveness Factors affecting qualitative competitiveness that are surveyed in the Madagascar competitiveness audit (more comparable to Porter’s definition of competitiveness) include: Efficiency or delays with which inputs are sourced from international, regional, or domestic markets Efficiency or delays with which domestic factors of production are procured Efficiency or delays with which raw materials are processed domestically into semi-finished goods (e.g., raw cotton to ginned cotton, ginned cotton to thread, thread to fabric) Agronomic potential for expansion and increased technical efficiency of cotton production Industrial capacity and capacity utilization rates 18 Incentives offered to labor, availability of specialized training to labor and management, presence of workforce development optic Degree of innovation (both technical and managerial), research and development Availability of capital for firm-level investments (for expanded capacity, specialized equipment) Level of physical infrastructure development, efficiency of operations Degree of value-chain integration Degree of value-chain collaboration Extent to which Malagasy firms exhibit negotiating power in international sourcing, supply GLOBAL TEXTILE SECTOR COMPETITIVENESS EXAMPLES It is instructive for Madagascar to consider how have other countries prepared for AGOA or (in the case of countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa) for their own preferential access to the U.S. market. One of the lessons of such a review is that there is no one model for achieving competitiveness. Rather, every country – and every company within that industry – seeks to develop its own sources of competitive advantage. A review of recent experiences from a diverse set of countries – including inexperienced clothing manufacturers such as Mali and Uganda as well as more experienced producers such as Morocco, South Africa, and Vietnam – suggests that Madagascar is potentially well-placed to succeed in the post-AGOA, post-ATC global competition that will rule markets after 2004. Madagascar’s labor force is disciplined yet inexpensive, and most importantly, EPZ firms based in Madagascar bring a wealth of international market connections to buying agents in Gulf and Asian capitals as well as directly with buyers in the U.S. The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office tracks upstream investments being made in AGOA countries to prepare for the manufacture of AGOA origin yarn and fabric in anticipation of September 2004. Table 9 indicates those investments that have been tracked in the annual AGOA reports to Congress. 19 Table 9: AGOA-Related Upstream Textile Investments Country 2002 2003 (Source of capital in parentheses) (Source of capital in parentheses) Lesotho $100 million denim rolling mill by end of 2003 $40 million cotton yarn spinning mill mid-2004 Mali $7.5 million cotton yarn spinning mill (5,000 tons cotton initial capacity, to 15,000 tons per year) (MaliMauritius) Mauritius $60 million cotton yarn spinning mill (Chinese) New spinning mill (Indian) New spinning mill (Mauritian) Namibia Cotton gin to produce fiber for local market and export $130 million weaving and dyeing plant (South African) (U.S.) Tanzania Cotton yarn exported to Mauritius Uganda “Foreign companies have established major operations in response to AGOA incentives.” Zambia Expansion of existing spinning/weaving mill (Zambia) $35-50 million under consideration to create Expansion of cotton production (U.S.) integrated operation (international consortium) Sale of defunct textile mill (South African) Source: USTR annual AGOA reports. Cotton Sector Experiences Elsewhere In 1999, the West African nation of Mali, Africa’s second largest seed cotton producer after Egypt, exported 98% of its production as lint through the French cotton marketing agent COPACO13 (Salinger, Sylla, Crook and Perrings 1999). Only limited local transformation of lint into yarn and fabric takes place. Of the two spinning/weaving/dyeing mills that used to operate in Mali, one has been closed for several years and has not succeeded in attracting a private buyer. The only operational company is a joint Chinese-Malian venture, COMATEX. All local processing is for woven cloth, destined for sale in the local market. However, its production is not regionally, let alone globally, competitive, and the Malian market is full of Nigerian and Ivorian fabric. 13 COPACO (Compagnie cotonnière) is a subsidiary of DAGRIS, the French public agribusiness firm involved in cotton production around the world. COPACO’s area of competency is in the international trade of cotton lint. COPACO is particularly involved in the trade of African fiber from the franc zone, which constitutes the world’s third largest export zone. COPACO is also active in Europe, the Middle East, as well as in Central Asia. 20 Mali is land-locked in the center of West Africa. It can access two outlets to sea ports, one via rail to Dakar, Senegal, and the other via road to Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. However, the rail line is not up to international standards, and the road network to Abidjan is notorious for the high incidence of unofficial fees charged along the way. Manufacturers of higher value artisanal textiles ship to Japan, Europe, and the U.S. by air. However, like so many other African countries, competition in and out of Mali’s air space is limited, resulting in high air freight fees. The sad irony is that West African traditional textile arts (weaving, dyeing, embroidery, tailoring), particularly those out of Mali, are world renowned. Most garments and household furnishings are sold in local markets for local or tourist consumption. Some of this production reaches foreign markets, although usually in semi-processed form. Several recent ventures have explored opportunities for exporting final, textile-based goods to U.S. markets (outside of AGOA) but have found that trade knowledge is extremely limited (Salinger and Carpenter 2001; Action for Enterprise). Only one small business in Mali is undertaking organized garment manufacture of any kind. Challenges stemming from this lack of modern, large-scale, industrial garment manufacturing experience include workforce, management, color/dyeing, product development, quality control, trade logistics, sourcing, and pricing training needs. Trade finance was unavailable from local financial institutions, and modern assembly equipment was lacking. Most local operators have only limited understanding of global market chains, and are unsure how to make market connections to the U.S., with the exception of a few world-class artisans. Recently, the picture in Mali has begun to change. As mentioned above, a Malian/Mauritian joint venture has finally negotiated favorable investments terms and have begun to spin cotton yarn for export (USTR 2003). The $7.5 million yarn factory will initially process 5,000 tons of cotton; capacity is expected to increase to 15,000 tons per year. Production is scheduled to begin by September 2003. The yarn will be exported to Mauritius for use in manufacturing apparel that could be exported to the United States under AGOA. Textile/Clothing Sector Experiences Elsewhere Despite its relatively higher capital endowment and the higher cost of domestic labor compared with other labor costs in the southern African region, South Africa’s textile industry still includes a laborintensive manufacturing sector. Its textile end of the industry (spinning, weaving/dyeing, knitting) is highly developed, compared with that of most other AGOA countries. However, years of inward market orientation and under apartheid and high levels of tariff protection have left many segments of the textile industry ill-prepared to identify competitive niches (Salinger, Bhorat, Flaherty, and Keswell 1998). South Africa’s industrial labor force is well organized. However, higher wage levels in South Africa are not compensated by higher levels of productivity. The result of such regional wage inequality is the beginning of the “NAFTA’ization” of southern Africa. Increasing numbers of South African manufacturers are going “off-shore” to establish platforms in Lesotho, Swaziland, Mozambique, and elsewhere. In response, South Africa has organized a vocational training program to enhance the workforce skills of technical workers. Management skills also need upgrading. Some of the more innovative South African clothing firms have introduced innovations such as new product lines, information management systems, inventory control methods, overseas market contacts to input suppliers and final clients, means of ordering work flow through the shop floor, and 21 forms of labour relations to improve worker productivity. In addition to attention to workforce development, South Africa needed to pay greater attention to applied technology research and development, through enhanced public-private partnerships. In 2001, Uganda was focused on reviving existing industrial infrastructure in both knitting and spinning/weaving (Salinger and Greenwood 2001). The country produced limited quantities of seed cotton production. Most of its production was concentrated in drier land in the north, where civil unrest has disrupted market linkages. The country has a very limited “industrial” clothing labor workforce. However, as in Mali, an extensive informal tailoring industry exists in Uganda that could potentially be molded into an organized workforce. The industry is working to revive a knitting operation, originally founded with Japanese capital, and an integrated operation from spinning through clothing production, that has African-South Asian backing. Because of its land-locked position in East Africa, there was some consideration that the woven fabrics from Uganda could develop fabric supply linkages with Kenyan or Tanzanian clothing firms. Even prior to achieving “most favored nation” trade status with the U.S., Vietnam attracted foreign investment (mostly Asian capital) in modern textile mill development. The more laborintensive clothing assembly was concentrated in enterprises that were often state-owned, but becoming more market-oriented. Although Korean, Malaysian, and Hong Kong agents were actively contracting for production in Vietnam, managers were frustrated that their workforces were being accessed under simple assembly arrangements (known as “CMT,” or cut-make-trim, contracts). They understood that their relative market position would be strengthened by developing direct market linkages with buyers overseas. Several firms, especially those with diaspora connections in California and elsewhere in the U.S., dreamed of selling directly into the North American market. Currently in the process of negotiating a bilateral free trade agreement with the U.S., Morocco is very conscious of AGOA, NAFTA, the U.S.-Jordan FTA and the various rules of origin included in these preferential trade agreements (Belghazi, Plunkett, and Salinger 2002). Morocco’s clothing industry has a long-established, CMT-based clothing assembly industry. Companies produce for the EU and some U.S. clients. U.S. brands such as The Gap, Jordache, and Sara Lee/Hanes are already present in Morocco. Morocco also has very limited upstream capacity, whether in seed cotton or yarn and fabric production. Most inputs are imported duty-free for re-export. A Spanish textile firm invested several years ago in a denim mill in Morocco. While importing most of its lint from world markets, the plant is exploring vertical integration with Moroccan cotton farmers. Morocco’s clothing industry has been active in strengthening its cluster organization and lobby the Government for relief. In 2002, the Moroccan Government granted the industry an electricity subsidy in advance of expected drops in official energy rates. In addition, a number of European and international donors offer technical assistance to develop textiles-related workforce skills. Common Themes in Other Experiences Essential elements for success emerge from a comparison of these experiences elsewhere. First, successful garment exporting countries allow their exporting firms to access raw material and intermediate inputs at world market prices. This is accomplished either through general tariff reform, reducing tariffs for all domestic consumers of these items. Or it may be accomplished through preferential access agreements, such as export processing zones, duty drawback schemes, bonded warehouses, etc. (Radelet 1999). Second, manufacturers are not only drawn to countries where labor 22 costs are low, they are also looking for skilled workforces, political stability, and modern and lowcost infrastructure (McMillan, Pandolfi, and Salinger 1999). The typical textiles/garment sector development pattern observed around the globe is the entry into labor-intensive clothing assembly first, where large capital investments are not required. This entry is generally facilitated through commercial linkages with multinational producers or contractors that provide the market linkage to buyers in OECD countries. Over time, perhaps enhanced through preferential trade agreements, investments may expand into upstream, more capital-intensive, input (fabrics, trims) supply (Gereffi et al. 2002). Finally, as wages continue to climb, manufacturing industries evolve. Japan was once a producer of low-skill, labor-intensive manufactures. Even the economies of South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, and other industrializing countries – including Mauritius (Tejada 2003) – cannot sustain low-value goods manufacture. Rather, over time, as local workforces acquire additional skills and the cost of their labor rises, manufacturing industries transition into increasingly sophisticated products. Clothing companies in the Philippines began to source instead out of Vietnam, for example, as increasingly sophisticated electronics manufacturing claimed an increasing portion of the workforce. Those electronics manufacturers, in turn, found opportunities in the Philippines after Malaysia and Singapore became increasingly expensive platforms from which to do business. The same transitions are witnessed today in Mauritius, with nearby Madagascar the immediate beneficiary. Such are the rhythms of modern economic development. 23 4. COMPETITIVENESS OF MADAGASCAR’S COTTONTEXTILES-GARMENTS VALUE-CHAIN OUTLINE OF MADAGASCAR’S COTTON, TEXTILES, AND GARMENTS SECTOR To evaluate Madagascar’s prospects for vertical integration of the cotton-textiles-garments valuechain, it is important to understand the linkages among key actors in production, processing, and export, as well as all points of intersection with the world market at each of these stages: seed cotton production, cotton fiber ginning, cotton fiber spinning, weaving, and printing/dyeing, or cotton fiber spinning, knitting, and printing/dyeing, clothing assembly, and exporting. Madagascar’s industrial sector has been characterized by the World Bank, in its recently released Integrated Framework study, as having a fragile base for growth (World Bank 2001, revised 2003). However, the potential for expansion of an upstream cotton industry, given the downstream demand for cotton-based final garments under AGOA, is underscored by the authors: The cotton sector has the potential for growth in Madagascar. The explosion of the textile sector in the EPZs promises a high demand for cotton fabric, and moving backward through the supply chain, cotton yarn, cotton lint, and seed cotton. But the current structure of the sector, with significant (although decreasing) market power still exercised by the parastatal, the administered pricing policies, and the linking of export volumes to domestic sales, threatens to hamper expansion of the sector. (World Bank 2001, p. 47) This chapter offers some more detailed parameters to more fully appreciate this potential and the factors that hamper it. RAW MATERIALS: SEED COTTON PRODUCTION, GINNING, AND FIBER PRODUCTION Competitiveness issues in the raw materials end of the value-chain include falling levels of farm yields and production, ginning capacity and sales of cotton fiber to domestic and foreign consumers, and the connection between cotton prices on world markets and in Madagascar and the financial difficulties that have plagued HASYMA for several years. 24 Falling Levels of Farm Yields and Production Over the last twenty years, Madagascar has produced between 20,000 and 40,000 tons of seed cotton per year (figures below and Table 10), with average production around 30,000 tons. However, seed cotton production is now in crisis (see below) and production in 2002 was less than 9,000 tons of seed cotton. Madagascar produces largely two main varieties, D388/8 (29-31 mm length staple) and Guazuncho (28-30 mm length staple). Yields at the national level average about one ton per hectare. However, this masks distinct differences in yields between the two farming systems that are found in Madagascar. In the northwest, around Mahajanga, flood recession agriculture predominates. Most of Madagascar’s large-scale farms are concentrated in this region. Seed cotton in the northwest is planted in March on alluvial soils after the rainy season, as the flood waters recede. Yields in the northwest are 1.6-2 tons per hectare, or even higher. Costs of production are generally higher in the northwest, too, since mechanization is relied on to a greater extent to work the heavy soils. In the southwest, around Toliary, cotton production is rainfed, planted in November and harvested in June. Some supplemental irrigation may be applied. Yields are lower, averaging 0.8 tons per hectare. Figure 1: Evolution of Cotton Production Figure 2: Evolution of Cotton Yields 50000 2.500 45000 40000 2.000 35000 30000 1.500 25000 20000 1.000 15000 10000 0.500 5000 0 Yield (T/ha) Production (T) 25 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 1971 0.000 Ten years ago, as much as 70% of Madagascar’s cotton was grown in the northwest. More recently, nearly 60% of the national crop has been grown in the south. Thus, over time average national yields have declined substantially. This shift has been due, in part, to the inroads made into the farming system by other cash crops. For instance, industrial tobacco production is said to compete quite favorably. One observer noted that a farmer can earn as much from one-tenth of a hectare planted to tobacco production as s/he can from an entire hectare under cotton. In addition, cotton competes with farmers’ food production requirements. Farmers in the northwest have been more active in seeking new crops. If lands previously seeded to cotton could be recuperated, including along several of Madagascar’s west coast river systems, HASYMA officials estimate that annual seed cotton production of 63,000 tons per year is feasible. Cotona, the textile group located in Antsirabe, also promotes the production of extra long-staple Pima cotton varieties in southwest Madagascar, with quite favorable results. Pima cotton is planted in December, grown under irrigated conditions, and matured during the hot summer months. Yields are about 2 tons per hectare, and fiber length is around 37 mm.14 Present production is only about 140 tons in Madagascar. Cotona currently imports an additional 360 tons from Israel. 14 The reference is Egypt with 40-42 mm. Pima staple length in the U.S. is 36-37 mm, while Israeli producers achieve 30-35 mm. 27 Table 10: Madagascar Seed Cotton Production, 1971-2002 Season 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Area (ha) 10,851 10,101 13,361 16,089 16,341 Production (T) 21,695 23,882 30,628 33,290 30,728 Yield (T/ha) 1.999 2.364 2.292 2.069 1.880 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 17,515 20,403 22,213 17,898 16,985 34,731 37,081 32,934 29,957 23,210 1.983 1.817 1.483 1.674 1.366 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 18,724 17,431 19,929 23,595 32,954 27,962 25,981 26,381 33,813 42,871 1.493 1.491 1.324 1.433 1.301 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 42,850 22,179 26,048 29,013 27,015 41,010 27,221 31,863 41,538 32,094 0.957 1.227 1.223 1.432 1.188 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 22,085 19,757 20,333 21,434 22,673 26,629 20,082 25,434 27,310 24,233 1.206 1.016 1.251 1.274 1.069 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 24,766 27,038 33,792 35,189 28,553 27,494 36,196 38,592 34,625 27,369 1.110 1.339 1.142 0.984 0.959 2001 2002 28,345 12,102 26,518 8,162 0.936 0.674 29,504 0.959 Average, 1999-2001 Source: HASYMA Role of HASYMA It is typical in agro-industry, where processing facilities are concentrated, that one or a limited number of processing firms coordinates production, collection, and first-stage processing of seed cotton in Madagascar. 28 Malagasy cotton farmers depend to a large extent on HASYMA (the Madagascar Cotton Company) for supplies of seed and chemical inputs, as well as for marketing outlets for their harvest. This system is common in other francophone African countries as well, where the French public company Dagris (formerly, the Compagnie Française de Développement des Textiles or CFDT) has managed similar systems.15 The role of production coordinator is played by large agro-industrial processors in other industries as well. For example, in Mexico, the production of white maize for processing into tortillas is coordinated by large, private agro-industrial groups such as MASECA and MINSA. They work with large-scale contract farmers, distributing seed varieties, advising on seeding dates and cultivation practices, and fixing market contracts. Similarly, HASYMA is responsible for varietal research, undertaken in conjunction with the national agronomic research institute FOFIFA, and the procurement of fertilizers, pesticides, and equipment on behalf of local farmers. CFDT owned HASYMA until 1979. Dagris is currently a 38% shareholder in HASYMA. Previously, two private Malagasy companies (DRAMCO and CCB) also ran their own production operations in the northwest of the country, but contracted for ginning through HASYMA. Thus, farmers enjoyed some degree of ex-field price competition in the market. However, faced with declining profitability, the two private production/buying operations ceased several years ago. Privatization of HASYMA, with conversion of a public monopsony into a private monopsony, is not necessarily the optimal solution from an economic standpoint.16 Yet economies of scale and the geographic diversity of Madagascar’s cotton-growing zones suggest that the domestic ginning sector would not support more than one owner of ginning facilities in a given area. Models should be explored that increase private agribusiness participation in seed cotton production, either by domestic textile firms seeking backward integration or by international seed cotton marketing firms such as Dagris seeking to diversify their sources of raw material for world markets. Ginning Capacity and Fiber Sales HASYMA owns all four of the country’s large-scale ginning facilities, with a total ginning capacity of 40,000 tons of seed cotton. Average ginning ratios of about 40% compare favorably with world norms. Currently installed capacity is well above actual requirements. 15 For further information on DAGRIS’ strategy, see the interview with Dagris Director-General Gilles Peltier in “Coton: Dagris en quête de prises de participations majoritaires,” Marchés Tropicaux, 11 juillet 2003, www.dagris.fr. 16 A monopsony is a market with a single buyer. 29 Table 11: Madagascar Cotton Lint Sales (tons) Season 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ……………………………………….Domestic Clients…………………………………… COTONA SOTEMA SOMACOU FANAVOTANA SAMAF Others 3120.6 3197.9 851.0 736.1 402.9 2941.6 151.4 922.5 598.7 509.6 1.1 3765.8 1088.3 449.2 499.3 4682.5 521.5 746.6 350.1 5119.8 807.1 515.6 102.3 2.0 5076.1 614.0 554.8 3144.5 480.3 507.0 2086.7 95.1 373.2 Exports 1501.3 3203.1 3592.3 6195.4 6322.5 5755.5 3966.1 3174.7 Total 9809.8 8328.0 9394.9 12496.1 12869.3 12000.4 8097.9 5729.7 Source: HASYMA Between 1995 and 2001, HASYMA sold about half of its ginned fiber to local clients and half on the world market (Table 11). About three-quarters of domestic sales have been to Cotona. Madagascar’s average level of exports of 4600 tons is equivalent to 21,083 480-pound bales. By comparison, world cotton lint trade in 2002/03 is expected to be about 30 million 480-pound bales, according to the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Costs of Cotton Production in Madagascar Madagascar’s farm-level costs of production vary significantly between irrigated production in Toliara and flood recession production in Mahajanga (Table 12). The latter is about twice as expensive per hectare as the former. However, yields are also about twice as high in the northwest (Mahajanga), compared with the southwest (Toliara), so the per kilogram financial costs of seed cotton production are about the same, around 1400-1500 FMG per kilogram.17 Since farm-level production costs were not received until the very end of the trip, this analysis is admittedly rough. It can be improved with greater attention to the individual lines of the farm budget. Ministry of Agriculture analysts may wish to explore some of these specific issues: 17 What is the opportunity cost of irrigated and rainfed land in Toliara and Mahajanga? The rental costs of land should be reviewed more carefully, and compared with returns under alternative crops. What is the opportunity cost of capital to farmers in Madagascar? In the producers’ union scenario in Mahajanga, explicit costing of financial borrowing is included. It should be included in the other scenarios as well. What are the financial and opportunity costs of irrigation water? None of the fiches d’exploitation provided a cost (financial) of irrigation water. To what extent are farm-level input prices taxed or subsidized? It is unknown whether taxes or subsidies are involved in the prices paid by farmers for seed, fertilizer, or other chemical inputs. Thus the economic prices for these inputs may be different than the financial prices actually paid. Farm- and ginnery-level production costs were provided by HASYMA and a union of producers in the northwest. See Appendix E for details. 30 What are the economic costs of margins between farm-level and the border? A more careful breakdown of transport and ginning costs is suggested. Conservative assumptions have been made about the level of taxation involved, due to known distortions in energy pricing, but these should be further detailed. These likely underestimate the degree of taxation involved, and thus may overestimate the economic cost of ginning. Additional factors, such as possible subsidies on investment and operating capital to HASYMA, should also be explored. The world price equivalent of seed cotton should be estimated as a function of the world prices for cotton lint and for cottonseed oil and cake. This analysis only considered the economic price of lint; the economic valuation of cottonseed, a ginning by-product, was not undertaken. Farm-level simulation of returns under competing crops should be undertaken to assess how the profitability of seed cotton production compares with that of other crops in the same farming system, such as maize and tobacco. To the extent that these differences are significant, are domestic policies responsible for this bias, or is the comparative advantage of maize or tobacco production in Madagascar significantly higher than that of seed cotton production? Compared with a producer price of 2000 FMG/kg seed cotton, farmers earn about 500-600 FMG/kg under both systems (Table 12). The cash analysis of financial costs includes an estimate of rental fees for land, but does not include the implicit cost of own-labor. Returns to labor range from 4900 FMG per day in Toliara (below the minimum agricultural sector wage of 6033 FMG) to nearly 6200 FMG per day in Mahajanga (HASYMA costs) to over 8000 FMG per day (producers’ union costs). The number of labor-days in Mahajanga is said to be proportionally less relative to field productivity than in Toliara. Table 12: Estimates of Farm-Level Financial Productivity Toliara Mahajanga Mahajanga HASYMA Prod. Union Producer price FMG/kg seed cotton 2000 2000 2000 Minus financial costs of FMG/kg seed cotton 1,481 1,426 1,235 production Financial profitability FMG/kg seed cotton Financial profitability FMG/hectare Number of labor-days Financial profitability FMG/labor-day 519 574 765 439,797 976,162 1,300,000 90 158 158? 4,887 6,178 8,228 Source: Mission estimates, based on HASYMA data (Appendix B) The production of cotton fiber is also profitable from an economic perspective. The world price for cotton fiber, adjusted to the ex-ginnery level in Madagascar, is 7,920 FMG/kg fiber, based on a 31 world lint price of 60 U.S. cents per pound and an exchange rate of 6000 FMG/$ (see Appendix B).18 The world price equivalent also assumes an import-substitution scenario, given that Madagascar is a net importer of cotton fiber or cotton-based fabrics. Economic costs of production are estimated by adjusting for taxes included in transport costs and by including the cost of labor (valued at 6,000 FMG/labor-day) (Table 13). Positive economic profitability translates into a coefficient of comparative advantage that is less than 1.00, indicating that Madagascar uses scarce land and labor profitably by producing cotton domestically rather than importing. It may be, however, that other crops would yield a higher economic profitability (and thus lower domestic resource cost coefficient) per hectare of land or per labor-day than seed cotton. Table 13: Estimates of Ginnery-Level Economic Profitability Toliara Mahajanga Mahajanga HASYMA Prod. Union World price equivalent FMG/kg cotton fiber 7,920 7,920 7,920 Minus economic costs of FMG/kg cotton fiber 6,892 6,699 5,934 FMG/kg cotton fiber 1,028 1,221 1,986 production Economic profitability Source: Mission estimates, based on HASYMA data (Appendix B) Cotton Prices on World Markets and in Madagascar and HASYMA’s Financial Difficulties As evidenced from the plummeting level of seed cotton production in 2002 to just over 8,000 tons, the raw material end of Madagascar’s cotton-textiles-clothing sector is in crisis. The roots of this crisis can be found in financial difficulties that have threatened HASYMA’s sustainability for the last two years. The crisis cannot be understood without reference to the international market for lint. 18 It is not the purpose of this audit to pronounce on whether the current parity level of the Malagasy Franc (FMG) is appropriate or not, given underlying economic fundamentals. However, the exchange rate obviously represents the crucial factor converting Malagasy costs into foreign exchange equivalents. Recent IMF literature was reviewed to gauge informed analysts’ opinions. Additional information on domestic inflation and currency exchange restrictions was also gathered. The IMF’s 2003 selected economic issues paper reports that three different approaches to the measurement of Madagascar’s external competitiveness suggest that despite the recent appreciation of the Malagasy Franc (FMG), “there is no evidence of a detrimental exchange rate misalignment” (IMF 2003, p. 18). In support of that conclusion, the paper points to Madagascar’s success in expanding exports, thereby reducing the current account deficit, and increasing private capital inflows through the attraction of foreign direct investment into the EPZ sector. However, econometric analysis of the equilibrium real exchange rate appears to be limited to the immediate past prior to the political crisis, i.e. between 1999 and 2001 (Cady 2003). Moreover, the analysis for 2001 anticipates an improvement in the net foreign assets position as a result of HIPC relief, which in retrospect seems premature. 32 Figure 3: World Cotton Lint Prices 100 90 80 (cents/lb) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 0 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Cotton & Wool Situation & Outlook reports Note: Prices depicted are A Index, CIF Northern Europe. 2003 price represents an average of January through June 2003 prices. Between 1975 and 1998, world cotton lint prices tended to fluctuate between 50 and 90 U.S. cents per pound (Figure 3). The cotton “A” Index, measured CIF Northern Europe, is used by HASYMA as the basis for negotiating export prices. However, in 1999, due to the build-up of global stocks, lint prices plummeted to historic lows, grazing just below 40 cents per pound in the latter months of 2001. As of July 2003, the world lint price recovered substantially and was above 60 cents per pound. In response to analyses suggesting that agricultural protection by certain WTO member countries has caused world prices to be depressed (Oxfam 2002), cotton producers Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali have submitted a proposal to the WTO as part of the Doha Round agricultural negotiations (WTO 2003). They call for recognition of the strategic nature of cotton for development and poverty reduction in many developing countries and for the complete phase-out of support measures for the production and export of cotton. For companies like HASYMA that fix their buying contracts with local producers at the beginning of production seasons, such precipitous world price drops can spell disaster for financial accounts. HASYMA fixes its producer prices for the coming season in October as a function of world market levels. In 2001, it raised its producer price, most likely in response to the previous year’s increase in the A Index (Table 14). World prices continued to fall in 2001, yet HASYMA did not lower the producer price until the 2002 season. When the producer price finally was lowered, the disincentive led to the withdrawal of many producers from cotton production. Previously, a cotton stabilization fund had provided some level of financial resources to smooth producer prices and therefore protect against such fluctuations, but by 2001 these resources had dried up. Emergency financing was provided in 2002 to HASYMA under a World Bank Emergency Economic Recovery Credit (IMF 2002). The assistance was made conditional on the privatization of HASYMA and on an increase in seed cotton production volumes. Dagris and at least one American company were said to 33 be interested in acquiring HASYMA. However, a formal competitive bid for the company has not yet been organized. Resolving this impasse should be a key priority for the Malagasy authorities. Figure 4 depicts the trends of both world and Madagascar prices. The HASYMA price curve is the seed cotton producer price, converted into dollars at annual average exchange rates and converted into fiber equivalent using a 40% ginning ratio. It is a farm-level price, i.e. ginning and marketing costs have not been added to bring it to FOB equivalent.19 The world lint price is the cotton A Index, CIF Northern Europe. Thus, normally there should be a margin between the two curves to cover domestic processing, transport, and fobbing costs. The fact that the two price lines practically converged in 2001 demonstrates the extent to which HASYMA had not lowered domestic prices sufficiently to account for the plummeting world price. With world prices recovering somewhat in 2002, the margin between domestic and world prices is beginning to be observed once again. Now, as world prices recover, HASYMA has raised its purchase price back to 2000 FMG/kg for the 2003 season. However, because of HASYMA’s internal financial difficulties, farmers were not paid on time last year. The budget available to HASYMA staff to oversee production has also been reduced. As one official put it, “both the producers and HASYMA’s own staff have ‘lost faith’ in HASYMA’s ability to supervise this year’s cotton campaign.” Table 14: Madagascar Seed Cotton Producer Prices (1st Quality) Figure 4: Comparison of HASYMA & World Prices 0.90 0.80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: HASYMA Producer Prices (FMG/kg seed cotton) 1600 1925 1965 2125 1900 1925 2100 1650 0.70 0.60 0.50 ($/kg) Year HASYMA A Index 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Sources: HASYMA, USDA/Economic Research Service 19 Madagascar’s 2000/2001 ginning cost was 2,266 FMG/kg fiber. 34 2000 2001 2002 INTERMEDIATE TEXTILE INPUTS: FABRIC PRODUCTION Three factors have a direct effect on the competitiveness of the textile milling sector: The first is the ease with which raw material is acquired. Textile mills manufacturing cottonbased fabrics are integrated operations that introduce cotton lint into spinning, weaving or knitting, and wet processing operations. Greige (unbleached, undyed, unprinted fabric) and color fabrics are produced at the other end. Although textile mills around the world may import some portion of their total cotton lint requirements, the extent to which sufficient and efficiently priced locally grown and ginned cotton is domestically available enhances the competitiveness of textile operations. Firms indicate that this is not just because of lower cost, but particularly because of the reduction in risk and logistics (time, as well as cost) associated with having cotton lint supplies available nearby. The second factor is the regularity and cost of supply of other variable inputs, of which electricity is the most important component. A third important factor is the degree of depth in the local (and regional) textile market. Other factors that typically affect textile mills, not addressed directly here because of the lack of concern demonstrated by most interviewees in Madagascar during this audit, include the cost of financial capital for investment and the availability of industrial real estate for development. Effective Cotton Fiber Demand How important is cotton fiber to vertical integration strategies in Madagascar? What would the total domestic demand for cotton fiber be in Madagascar, if all cotton-based exports from Madagascar were manufactured from locally grown seed cotton? Cotton is a key input into the textile industry, in Madagascar as elsewhere. However, other fiberbased products are obviously also a part of Madagascar’s garment production. Madagascar firms produce cashmere and wool knit sweaters, as well as some MMF- and silk-based garments. Madagascar’s imports of intermediate textile inputs is reported below (Table 15). However, these other fibers are not the primary focus of this audit and will only be referred to sporadically in this report. Cotton-based garments represent 63% of all garments exported from Madagascar in 2001, measured in value terms. When viewed across all AGOA countries and measured in square-meter equivalents (SME), cotton-based exports represent closer to 85% of total volume. 35 Table 15: Madagascar Imports of Silk, Wool, Cotton, and MMF Products, 2001 (Thousand US$) Silk Wool Cotton Man-Made Total Fibers Waste 12 154 166 15 1,246 262 1,523 439 242 681 38 48,297 6,453 2,483 57,271 Fabric 17,579 1,946 39,893 6,924 66,342 Total 17,617 50,258 48,043 10,065 125,983 Fiber Thread Yarn Source: U.N. COMTRADE database Madagascar’s total garment exports in 2001 to the U.S. and Europe combined totaled $429 million. Using figures from the U.S. Department of Commerce, this is estimated to represent about 99 million SME of fabric. Assuming 85% of this volume is represented by cotton-based garments, Madagascar’s pre-crisis garments exports would require a supply of 84 million SME, or 17 thousand tons of cotton fabric. The latter is equivalent to 25 thousand tons of cotton fiber. In addition, the domestic market for cotton-based products, supplied by Cotona and SOMACOU, is estimated to require another 2.5 thousand tons, for a total effective domestic demand of 27.5 thousand tons of cotton fiber. The seed cotton equivalent, assuming a 40% ginning ratio, is 69 thousand tons of seed cotton. This is the amount of seed cotton Madagascar would need to produce if all cotton-based exports shipped from Madagascar (2001) were to be manufactured using cotton fabrics produced in Madagascar. This is not to suggest that Madagascar should strive to be self-sufficient in cotton fiber production. China, India, and Pakistan, all major textile-producing countries, import some lint to complement their domestic seed cotton production. However, it does suggest that there is clearly a domestic market for all the seed cotton that can be produced domestically in Madagascar, and then some. Compared with a theoretical domestic demand of 27.5 thousand tons of cotton fiber, the maximum sold by HASYMA during the last several years was 12.8 thousand tons of cotton fiber to domestic and foreign markets in 1998. Madagascar clearly has a long way to go to reinvigorate domestic fiber production to satisfy local processing demands. Lack of resolution of HASYMA’s ownership status is confounding the preparation of any kind of strategy for increasing national cotton fiber production. In addition to constraints on domestically available raw material supply, there are also processing constraints (capacity and technical). Two textile mills currently produce cotton yarn and woven fabrics in Madagascar: Cotona, based in Antsirabe, and SOMACOU, located in Antananarivo. Two other integrated operations, SAMAF and Festival, produce jersey knit fabric/garments under integrated conditions. The latter also imports synthetic fiber for its chief product line, mixed blend blankets. However, it does spin and dye some cotton yarn for knitting into cotton sweaters for export. Companies for whom a significant portion of their manufacturing is of lower priced garments for the local market are struggling to compete against imports, and are also having difficulty regaining their foothold in export markets. As seen in Table 11, Cotona is HASYMA’s largest lint customer. Cotona presently buys about 3500 tons of ordinary fiber right now from HASYMA, compared with over 36 5000 tons before the crisis. They also import some cotton yarn, which is relatively new for them. Cotton yarn is also imported by Malagasy sweater and knitwear manufacturers. Certain fabrics (e.g., denim, velour, corduroy, jersey knits) are only produced in limited quantities in Madagascar for the export market. An Indonesia group is reported to be interested in investing in upstream milling capacity, but has not moved into Madagascar yet. The two most important categories of light- and heavyweight cotton fabric imports into Madagascar are shown in Table 16. Mauritian textile mills are far and away the largest source of lighter weight cotton fabrics. Heavier weight cotton fabrics, such as twills and denims, are imported from Mauritius, Hong Kong, France, China, South Africa, and an assortment of other countries. Table 16: Suppliers of Imported Cotton Fabrics to Madagascar, 2001 Country (Thousand US$) Light weights Printed China 44 France 30 Heavy weights Yarn-dyed 23 Hong Kong Twill Denim 333 373 1,627 327 1,667 1,084 Indonesia 454 Japan 225 Mauritius 1,754 5,073 21 10,171 Philippines 499 South Africa 570 Spain 21 USA Others Total 409 13 182 98 112 37 26 97 1,961 5,133 4,265 13,911 Source: UN COMTRADE database The Role of Electricity Costs An important component of total cost in textile milling is energy. The textile sector is the largest industrial consumer of electricity in Madagascar. Breweries are the second largest industrial consumer, but they are able to co-generate a fair amount of their consumption through their manufacturing process. Such options do not exist in textiles. Electricity typically accounts for about 15% of total costs for a textile manufacturer (yarns, fabrics) and 4-7% for a clothing manufacturer in Madagascar. Madagascar’s electricity costs are a function of a number of technical and policy variables in the electricity market itself and in the petroleum products market on which much of electricity generation is based. Of a total generation capacity of 240 megawatts, half is supplied by less expensive hydro power and half by thermal (both heavy fuel and diesel) generation, the latter through the importation of crude oil. These include: private participation in electricity generation; 37 privatization of Madagascar’s petroleum refinery that included guaranteed margins to its new owner/operator, Galana; policy of taxation of diesel and heavy fuel that neither distinguishes between industrial or household consumers nor distinguishes between sales to Madagascar’s national electricity distribution company, JIRAMA, and sales to private consumers; Madagascar’s exchange rate, which in turn affects the local price of imported petroleum; electricity rate structure that includes both fixed and variable rate elements, borne differently by different textiles producers, depending on their overall level of activity; and electricity rate structure that provides for different rates depending on the level of power (high-, medium-, and low-voltage consumption) and time of day of consumption (day time, peak time, and off hours), but that does not distinguish between large-scale and small-scale consumers.20 An assessment of whether Madagascar’s current pricing scheme covers the costs of electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and supply is beyond the scope of this study. The Cellule de Réflexion analysis undertaken to date has looked at the relative price of electricity in Madagascar, compared with neighboring Mauritius and South Africa. The fixed subscription portion of total electricity costs is 1.1 Euro cents per KW in South Africa, 2.9 Euro cents per KW in Mauritius, and 9.5-10.3 Euro cents per KW in Madagascar. Based on a simulation of industrial consumption of 4500 KWh, total KW rates are 3 Euro cents per KW in South Africa, 5.5 Euro cents per KW in Mauritius, and 7.1 Euro cents per KW in Madagascar. In November 2002, a roundtable was held in Antsirabe to launch a public-private sector study group on energy pricing in Madagascar. The Cellule de Réflexion focused on the effect of energy pricing on the costs of Madagascar’s textile industry, because of the latter’s importance to the Malagasy economy. Its analysis referenced energy prices in Mauritius and South Africa as relevant comparators for Madagascar. Madagascar’s electricity costs paid by the textile industry in 2001 were somewhere between 6 and 8 US cents/kwH. The unit cost of electricity in Madagascar to industrial consumers may seem on the high side when compared with Mauritius and South Africa, but it is comparable to rates paid by industrial consumers in Taiwan, South Korea, Portugal, and Turkey (see Table 24, Appendix C for cost comparisons). Russia, Kazakhstan, and South Africa enjoy among the lowest rates in the world (less than 2 U.S. cents/kwH), whereas Caribbean and Central American industries pay some of the highest rates (over 10 US cents/kwH). As described in Appendix C,21 South Africa is a significant and low-cost producer of coal, making its industrial sector one of the most electricity-intensive in the world. This suggests that South Africa’s cost structure may not be the most appropriate reference for Madagascar. The work of the Cellule has also highlighted the fact that the national electricity company, JIRAMA, must generate half of the country’s electricity by purchasing diesel fuel from the national refinery, Galana, at a price that includes a number of taxes paid back to the state. JIRAMA’s 20 When JIRAMA restructured its rates in 2001, a specific decision was made not to provide subsidized rates to any particular set of clients in order to diminish such lobbying efforts. 21 For a survey of electricity supply and demand situations in newly industrializing countries, many of which are textile producers, see Appendix C. 38 purchase prices for petroleum products such as diesel and heavy fuel include the national valueadded tax of 20%, a road tax (Fonds d’Entretien Routier) of 5%, and the petroleum products tax (TPP) of 6%. Galana imports crude oil, which it refines into diesel and gasoline, and re-exports some products and by-products to Mauritius. Mauritius in turn uses the diesel fuel imported from Madagascar to generate its own electricity, which it sells to industrial consumers without taxes at a lower rate than that paid by Malagasy consumers. In addition to concerns about the price of electricity, the quality of Madagascar’s electricity service is of concern to the textile and clothing industry. Complaints of outages and power spikes were commonly heard during this audit. Private generators and emergency power supply’s are increasingly resorted to in order to counter the irregular service delivered by JIRAMA. Not only is production lost during the time that machines are down, but flaws can be introduced into the quality of thread or fabric under production at the time. These may not show up until later in the production process, and then be costly to correct. Moreover, textile and clothing equipment itself is subject to failure. One international clothing company based in Antananarivo said, “Sure, electricity is more expensive in Madagascar than elsewhere, but for us it’s a smaller percentage of total cost than for the textile mills. What really concerns us is the fluctuation of electric current.” This firm recently lost the motherboard of a new patterning machine, costing several thousands of dollars. UPS (uninterruptible power supply) equipment is not meant to protect against the worst surges. Since electricity costs are 15% of the total cost of fabric, a 50% reduction in the cost of electricity to the Malagasy textile industry would save 7.5% of fabric cost. At the next stage of production, the cost of fabric represents 60% of the final cost of a garment, based on the cost breakdown of a typical bottoms apparel item provided by one of the companies interviewed. Thus a 4.5% cost savings (7.5% times 60%) would be realized on the fabric cost for this average garment. In addition, the cost of electricity is also part of the CMT+ overhead cost quoted by local clothing factories, representing about 4% of the total ex-factory price. The 50% reduction in the price of electricity thus would yield an additional 2% savings at the level of the garment cost. In a market where international orders are sometimes decided on margins of just a few U.S. cents per garment, 6.5% of an $8.00 ex-factory garment price represents a significant cost savings of 52 U.S. cents. A strategy of shared responsibilities between the government and the private sector has been proposed to undertake policy reforms to lower the price of energy in Madagascar and increase the cost-competitiveness of Madagascar’s leading manufacturing export industry. Pricing reform options tentatively identified by the study group include: Government should reimburse electricity producers for the road tax paid on petroleum products, reduce the petroleum tax on diesel destined for electricity production, determine economic priorities; Petroleum companies should reduce the profit margin substantially charged to large consumers, eliminate subsidies, and review privatization contracts for additional possible cost savings; JIRAMA should promote hydroelectric sources, with help from the state, restructure rates, and improve its quality of service; Industries should rearrange work in order to take advantage of lowest electricity rate periods (at night), install independent generation to guarantee continuous operations, create jobs. 39 The group’s analysis was completed in early 2003, and its recommendations have been the subject of lively debate in Malagasy public-private sector forums ever since. As of the competitiveness audit team’s visit to Madagascar, no definitive conclusions had been reached. Density of Local Textiles Market The density of Madagascar’s local textiles market, i.e. an increased number of globally competitive spinning, weaving/knitting, and wet processing operations is important for several reasons. First, clothing firms in Madagascar benefit from a range of alternative textiles suppliers from which to source their fabrics. This can be accessed at present to some extent at the regional level, e.g. in Mauritius and South Africa. However, the textile mills themselves benefit from having a denser market of mills in-country. The more numerous are the number of competitive textile mills in Madagascar, the more capable they are as a group to advocate for textiles-friendly policies. Also, the presence of more actors at the same stage of the pipeline brings about a greater density of the supportive businesses that textile firms require, e.g., textile equipment suppliers, parts providers, repair services, and the like. Encouraging the presence of a denser network of textile mills also leads to increased workforce specialization, providing more opportunities for skilled textile workers and thus more incentive for workers to pursue specialized training. Madagascar’s domestic textile milling market is thin. A number of plants that produce intermediary and final goods largely for the domestic market are shutting down or suffering from import competition. Knitwear production in Madagascar is under great duress. Only one industrial group in Antsirabe is operating at high levels of capacity use and producing fabric for clothing exporters. This group has indicated that it would welcome the presence of other textile companies into Madagascar, for many of the reasons listed above. Madagascar’s policy makers should consider how to make the investment environment friendlier and seek support from international financial institutions to encourage new textile industry investment in the country. FINAL GARMENTS: CLOTHING ASSEMBLY AND EXPORT Sourcing Madagascar must compete against all other suppliers in the global clothing market for access to buyers from the United States. The American Apparel and Footwear Association estimates that 89% of U.S. clothing consumption is sourced from outside the U.S. today. Flanagan points out that the reduction in importance of American clothing industry manufacturing means the political debate around further liberalization of clothing imports in the U.S. is very different today than it was in 1994 when the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing was signed (2003, p. 5). 40 Table 17: Global Sources of U.S. Clothing Imports 2002 (million $) World % of Total Imports Through July 2003 % of Total Imports (million $) 44,582 72,182 Caribbean Basin Mexico Canada 9,538 8,619 3,199 13.2% 11.9% 4.4% 5,618 4,759 1,794 12.6% 10.7% 4.0% China Hong Kong Korea, South Taiwan 8,744 4,032 2,881 2,207 12.1% 5.6% 4.0% 3.1% 6,423 1,974 1,369 1,150 14.4% 4.4% 3.1% 2.6% Indonesia Thailand Philippines Cambodia Vietnam 2,329 2,203 2,042 1,061 952 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 1.5% 1.3% 1,420 1,183 1,220 714 1,628 3.2% 2.7% 2.7% 1.6% 3.7% India Bangladesh Pakistan Sri Lanka 2,993 1,990 1,983 1,527 4.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.1% 2,009 1,188 1,261 892 4.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.0% EU12 4,080 5.7% 4,081 9.2% Turkey Israel Jordan 1,678 620 386 2.3% 0.9% 0.5% 1,047 374 288 2.3% 0.8% 0.6% Sub-Saharan Africa 1,120 1.6% 853 1.9% Others 7,998 11.1% 3,337 7.5% Source: Office of Textiles and Apparel, U.S. Department of Commerce It is difficult to predict how sourcing patterns will change after 2004. While some fear that China will dominate world markets thereafter, international buyers also seek to diversify sources of supply in order to manage their potential supply risks due to civil unrest, trade disputes, and the like. In addition, Madagascar should bear in mind that while the U.S. market looms large because of AGOA, patterns of international apparel trade will shift over time as growth in clothing consumption picks up in newly industrializing countries around the world. Today’s international clothing market mostly services consumers in the U.S., the EU, and Japan. But these three countries, Flanagan notes, only represent 10% of the world’s population. In 2002, major suppliers to the U.S. market were concentrated in East Asia and North/Central America (Table 17). Thirty percent was imported from the Caribbean Basin, Mexico, and Canada, 41 combined, and another twenty-five percent from China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan. The southeast Asian countries of Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Cambodia, and Vietnam provided 12%, as did the south Asian countries of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Nearly six percent of U.S. clothing imports were supplied by the European Union (EU12). That leaves another 16% sourced from other countries, among which were Turkey, Israel, Jordan, and sub-Saharan Africa. As of the first seven months of 2003, North and Central America’s contribution has eased slightly (27%), while the percentage sourced from the “big four” East Asian countries remains 25%. Among the latter, the importance of China has grown somewhat. Small increases are noted for the other countries, such that the relative importance of non-specified, other suppliers has dropped from 11% in 2002 to just 7.% in the first part of 2003. Manufacturing Madagascar’s EPZ policy allows clothing companies to import yarns, fabric, and trims duty-free if at least 95% of the imported inputs will be used to produce for export. However, all AGOA-related imported inputs have to be used up within six months, or duty must be paid on the value of the original shipment. Manufacturers note that buyers sometimes request delays in order fulfillment until the following season, if something is not selling well. This can wreak havoc on companies’ planning schedules. Forty percent of Madagascar’s total exports in 2001 were knit or woven garments, of which, 47% pullovers, 27% bottoms, 12% tops, 4% undergarments, and 10% others. Table 18 provides further product detail. Signs are favorable that Madagascar’s garment export industry is once again gearing up for increased activity. A number of companies interviewed for this audit indicated that their employment and production levels are up, after last year’s crisis. A few even indicated that they are operating at levels that exceed pre-crisis levels. Marketing agents are said to be actively seeking product out of Madagascar again. As a result, logistics firms such as freight forwarders, air cargo, and sea freight companies are all making new investments in warehouse and air/sea port handling capacity to handle expected increases in production after expatriate managers’ July-August vacations are over. 42 Table 18: Madagascar Garment Exports, 2001 HS Code Product Value (thousand US$) 611010 611020 Pullovers, cardigans & similar articles of wool or fine animal hair, knitted Pullovers, cardigans and similar articles of cotton, knitted 620342 620462 Men’s/boys trousers and shorts, of cotton, not knitted Women’s/girls trousers and shorts, of cotton, not knitted 62,560 43,975 610910 621410 T-shirts, singlets and other vests, of cotton, knitted Shawls, scarves, veils and the like, of silk or silk waste, not knitted 22,290 19,725 620520 611030 Men’s/boys shirts, of cotton, not knitted Pullovers, cardigans and similar articles of man-made fibers, knitted 19,594 15,362 620442 620920 Women’s/girls dresses, of cotton, not knitted Babies’ garments and clothing accessories of cotton, not knitted 8,004 7,553 621210 611090 Brassieres and parts thereof, of textile materials Pullovers, cardigans & similar articles of other textile materials, knitted 6,336 5,173 610462 620821 Women’s/girls trousers and shorts, of cotton, knitted Women’s/girls nightdresses and pajamas, of cotton, not knitted 4,656 4,160 621132 610891 Men’s/boys garments not elsewhere specified, of cotton, not knitted Women’s/girls bathrobes, dressing gowns, etc, of cotton, knitted 4,027 3,819 611120 610610 Babies garments and clothing accessories of cotton, knitted Women’s/girls blouses and shirts, of cotton, knitted 3,573 3,429 610342 610510 Men’s/boys trousers and shorts, of cotton, knitted Men’s/boys shirts, of cotton, knitted 3,172 3,155 610821 620630 Women’s/girls briefs and panties, of cotton, knitted Women’s/girls blouses and shirts, of cotton, not knitted 2,876 2,744 610343 Men’s/boys trousers and shorts, of synthetic fibers, knitted 2,528 TOTAL TOTAL HS codes 61 & 62 All exports 107,704 73,069 429,484 1,112,509 Textiles and apparel as a percent of total exports (approximate) 39% Source: U.N. COMTRADE database Interviews with representatives of the industry reveal the following competitiveness issues predominate at the clothing end of Madagascar’s value-chain: Firms that export under AGOA must comply with a host of regulation and inspection, some of which is specific to the U.S. legislation and some of which derives from overzealousness on the part of Malagasy customs officials. In addition, trade-related institutions in Madagascar, such as customs, transportation, and taxation management, are fraught with the potential for abuse. Bottlenecks in these areas may seriously impact clothing firms’ abilities to ship reliably to U.S. and other overseas clients. While Malagasy labor is less productive than labor in other garment-exporting countries, this is compensated by lower wages. However, the supply of available labor is tight in the highlands, where clothing manufacturing is located. Expansion to coastal areas appears to be infeasible. Moreover, firms based in Antananarivo are unable to run more than one shift per 43 day. There is little available training for workers or more highly skilled textiles industry positions outside of firms. Madagascar’s cotton-textiles-garments value-chain is not a fully developed cluster. In order to succeed in the competitive global environment after 2004 and the elimination of world quotas, the industry in Madagascar will have to seek greater integration within the country and with regional and U.S. market partners. There is little sign that either the government or the “private sector” as a whole is preparing a strategy for Madagascar’s textiles industry after the September 2004 expiration of AGOA’s special rule permitting third-country sourcing of yarn and fabric for least developed countries and after the 2005 expiry of global textile quotas. Each of these is further elaborated below. AGOA Paperwork and Customs Administration The U.S. AGOA visa system presents particular record-keeping challenges for clothing exporters. In order to become AGOA-eligible, the Malagasy customs service’s AGOA office must inspect the firm’s plant. Training in document and logistics is provided in order to explain how to manage the necessary paperwork. Stocks of fabric and trims imported for AGOA-specific production must be kept physically separate from stocks destined for non-U.S. markets. Separate documentation must also be kept on all U.S.-specific orders and their fulfillment. Similar to the buyers’ compliance inspections done by private companies, the AGOA customs office also reviews payrolls and facilities. The U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) regularly sends teams to a number of AGOA-eligible African countries each year to review apparel visa and inspection procedures with their counterpart customs service colleagues. This year, Madagascar was included in their Africa tour. Following that visit, Malagasy officials indicated to this audit team that certain imported inputs, such as pre-fabricated knit rib trims, were deemed ineligible by U.S. CBP officials for third-country sourcing by AGOA exporters and thus goods manufactured using them would be denied visas for entry into the U.S. under AGOA. It was not possible to confirm this finding with CBP officials. In addition to AGOA-related regulation, the government of Madagascar changed its customs inspection system in April 2003. Previously, all non-EPZ related imports were subject to customs valuation inspections. In April, the Swiss firm Société Générale de Surveillance (SGS) was brought in to replace the previous contractor. At the same time, imports by EPZ firms, previously exempt from such inspection, also became subject to customs valuation verification. The introduction of SGS into Madagascar has been strongly resisted, by both the Madagascar customs service and the private sector. EPZ firms complain that should not be subject to such inspection, since they do not pay duties and therefore ought not to have any incentive to falsify their import values. 22 The companies also say that introduction of the new procedures was poorly managed by SGS. For instance, many did not receive advance notice of electronic interfaces available to registered firms that allows them to submit notification of their imports to SGS via the Internet. Firms are also concerned about a new 22 EPZ firms may have other incentives for falsifying import documentation, such as illegal transshipment and the desire to import goods duty-free that are destined for the local market. 44 fee, equal to 0.25% of the CIF value of imports, to be paid to the SGS for its services. Independent oversight by SGS threatens the authority of the local customs service. For its part, SGS is determined to render trade facilitation services to importers and not simply be perceived as a bottleneck. SGS also indicated it would soon transition to a system of ex-poste customs valuation inspections in order to eliminate delays in physical access to imported inputs. Malagasy customs officials are also upset about the presence of SGS. The latter is viewed by them as providing unnecessary and unwanted competition. Further modernization and computerization of customs service operations by SGS – sorely needed from the point of view of enhanced efficiency of customs service operations and increased satisfaction from the private sector – would limit the broad authority currently enjoyed by customs agents. Experience from other countries suggests that customs administration reform is an essential component of trade liberalization (WCO 2003). Reductions in tariffs should be accompanied by increases in the efficiency of customs tariff revenue collection in order to avoid excessive revenue losses. At the same time, such reforms greatly enhance the efficiency with which the private sector can bring goods across borders. In Morocco, for example, the Customs Administration was able to reduce the average processing time from 5.5 days in 1997 to 2.0 days in 1999. By 2002, 85% of declarations filed with customs offices were processed in just under an hour and a half. Successful customs reform in Morocco was aided by the introduction of a performance bonus scheme for customs officials based on objective evaluations, the introduction of simplified procedures and selective controls, increased use of information technology, improved management of the admission temporaire scheme, and enhanced transparency and consultation with the private sector (World Bank 2002). The following steps are involved to import inputs for AGOA-related exports destined for the U.S. market: 1. When a production order is received by a Malagasy manufacturer from a U.S. client, the firm must file the following paperwork regarding imported inputs with the Malagasy AGOA customs office:23 Original commercial invoice for the imported goods; Declaration of import values and quantities, with indication that these are required for AGOA-related manufacture, usually taking 48 hours to file; Request for an inspection by SGS, if the value of imports exceeds $3000 (if the value is between $1000 and $3000, no SGS report is required). This last step is said to take up to 15-20 days to process, when submitted electronically, or even longer if presented by hand to the SGS office. 2. With these in hand, an AGOA declaration is filed with a freight forwarder, taking 1 day to process. 23 These officials are located only in Antananarivo. Although a customs office exists in Antsirabe, there is no AGOA customs officer based there. This further prolongs the customs inspection process for the clothing firms located there. 45 3. Upon arrival of the imported inputs, each shipment must be visually inspected by an AGOA customs officer and by the SGS officer. One company complained that a container that had arrived in Toamasina on June 22, 2003 did not arrive at the plant in Antananarivo until three weeks later, on July 14. Where containers used to sit in port for two days, the introduction in Spring 2003 of the SGS inspectors has resulted in containers lingering for as much as 15-20 days. Demurrage charges and warehouse fees can run 30 Euros per day for a 20-foot container in Toamasina or 150 FMG per kilogram per day at the airport.24 A logjam of imported containers sitting in Toamasina can lead to increased resort to alternative arrangements for goods to leave port without settling with SGS. In order to process an AGOA-related export: 1. Paperwork required for acquiring an AGOA visa includes: Commercial invoice indicating the value and number of pieces being exported; Actual packing list; Certificate of origin, provided by the local Chamber of Commerce; Bank documentation to attest to export value plus a Repatriation de devises form that requires that all export earnings be repatriated within six months; Raw material and accessory stock sheets that indicate how much has been used from each of the imported inputs and the balance remaining; Copy of the import customs declaration for the inputs. 2. Submit above-mentioned paperwork to freight forwarder, who seeks the AGOA visa from the AGOA customs office. This usually takes one day. 3. Proceed to physical inspection by AGOA customs officer, carried out at the forwarder’s office. This usually takes one day. 4. The AGOA visa paperwork must physically accompany all air freight. It can be sent to buyer/ importer via courier in the case of sea freight, often arriving before the freight actually does. Given that the timeliness of delivery of orders to foreign clients is a key term in the competitiveness equation, Madagascar’s garment exporters can ill afford to have to contend with inefficient trade-related institutions such as customs and transportation. Delays, transaction costs, and uncertainties make it increasingly expensive and time-consuming to do business in Madagascar. All firms experience some level of interruption of service from these institutions on a regular basis and end up paying additional fees to expedite service. Value-Added Taxation Reimbursement An additional cost commented on by many of the firms surveyed is that of tied-up capital involved in delayed reimbursement of VAT. Although EPZ firms are “exempt” from VAT obligations, the 20% 24 The majority of fabric shipments arrive by sea, whereas most trims and special packaging accessories arrive in Madagascar by air. 46 tax had been paid on the CIF value of imported capital equipment, and reimbursed ex-poste by the government. Although the obligation of EPZ firms to pay the VAT has been suspended since the 2002 political crisis, a number of firms expressed concern that the policy might be reinstituted. In the meantime, some firms have tens or thousands of dollars tied up in unreimbursed VAT payments. Transportation Bottlenecks in Madagascar Aside from customs costs and delays, the second largest concern of clothing companies is the cost and delay associated with transportation logistics. Final goods normally are shipped from Antananarivo to the seaport in Toamasina by truck, and by ship on to final destinations. Air freight is usually a contingency option only, or used only by manufacturers of high-value garments such as cashmere sweaters and hand-embroidered specialty garments. The two cities are connected by a two-lane road, which drops almost 4,000 feet between Antananarivo and sea level. Accidents and banditry are common. The road is already under severe stress. Traffic in and out of the capital is limited to between 8 pm and 6 am, in order to limit traffic bottlenecks in the city due to cargo. Truck depots exist outside of the capital along the major roads to and from the air and sea ports. Before the political crisis, upon inquiry regarding the capacity of Madagascar’s infrastructure to handle significant increases in export volumes, The Gap was told that Malagasy roads could not handle a 50% expansion of exports. The result of such limited infrastructure, combined with accident and security risks, is that it reportedly costs as much to ship a container between Antananarivo and Toamasina as it does from Toamasina to New York. Both cargo and exporting firms complained of uncertainties with regard to shipping. Cargo firms bear the risk of a freight forwarder not delivering its container on time, while exporters bear the risk of ships or cargo flights being cancelled. Maritime shipping lines do not go directly between Toamasina and the U.S., but rather transit via Mauritius, South Africa, or even Mombassa or the Arabian peninsula. Transit times are a minimum of four and as many as six or eight weeks to New York or Los Angeles, longer if the ultimate destination is the interior U.S. The choice of local freight forwarding agent and international shipper is usually determined by the U.S. client, who negotiates bulk rates from the U.S. The rail line that connects Antananarivo and Toamasina has fallen into severe disrepair and is not presently an option for overland cargo shipments. The state-owned railway has recently been privatized, bought by a South African firm. The sooner the Antananarivo-Toamasina line become operative, the better for Madagascar’s clothing exporters. A competitive and efficient rail operation would introduce sorely needed competition in the market for overland cargo haulage services. The government should do all it can to facilitate the launching of an efficient, operational rail link as soon as possible. Malagasy Labor Productivity, Skills, and Supply Malagasy clothing company workers are said to be only 70-75% as productive as workers in Mauritius (interviews; see also Tait 2002). However, Malagasy textile sector wages are also significantly lower than those found elsewhere. The current minimum wage is about200,000 FMG per month for a 40-hour week, equivalent to $35. Comparable wages elsewhere, quoted in the World Bank’s Integrated Framework paper (2001), are $50 (Sri Lanka), $65 (Botswana, Kenya, Lesotho), $75 (India), $133 (Mauritius), $150 (China), and $255 (South Africa). Wage costs can be compared with the number of shirts that are produced per worker on average per day in each country. As seen 47 in Table 19, Madagascar’s wage costs per shirt produced are low ($0.093/shirt), compared with those elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa and even compared with India and China. Table 19: Labor Cost in Men’s Shirt Production Madagascar Ghana Mozambique Kenya Lesotho South India Africa # Shirts per day Monthly wage Daily wage 14-15 12 10-11 12-15 18 EPZ China 15 16 18-22 $35 $30-45 $40-50 $60-65 $82-95 $255 $70-75 $150 $1.35 $1.44 $1.73 $2.40 $3.40 $9.81 $2.79 $5.77 $0.093 $0.120 $0.165 $0.178 $0.189 $0.654 $0.174 $0.288 equivalent Wage cost per shirt Source: Adapted from World Bank (2001), volume 2, p. 44 Despite this cost advantage, the supply of trained workers will become increasingly tight for the garments sector, especially as it recovers from the crisis-induced slump (World Bank 2001). Most firms use expatriate managers, quality control experts, supervisors, and technicians. All firms interviewed for this audit train their workforces in-house, usually over a 3-4 week period. Only the World Bank’s Integrated Framework paper makes reference to a textile sector training institution in Madagascar, FORMACO, calling it ineffective. Eventually, a shortage of skilled workers will drive up wage costs and limit the industry’s ability to move up the value chain. Madagascar needs to expand its supply of mid-level managers in technical and business areas, e.g. fiber and textiles engineering, technical support personnel, skilled assembly operators, textile arts and fashion design, international branding, market analysts, international sales and contracting, and logistics managers. The pre-crisis level of employment of around 120,000 workers in 2001 represents about one-fifth of total employment in the urban centers of Antananarivo and Antsirabe (INSTAT 2000). The 2000 population of the two cities was 1.2 million and 145,700, respectively. Of this, the economically active population in the two cities was 556,900 (Antananarivo) and 60,300 (Antsirabe) workers, of whom between 5 and 7% were estimated to be unemployed. The available pool of workers is thus fairly tight in these two urban areas. With average household sizes of 4.4-4.9 members each in these two cities, each worker is thus presumed to be supporting 530-590,000 people, or nearly half of the population of the two cities combined. Yet despite the potential for tight labor supplies as the textile industry is re-launched, it appears infeasible – for climatic, infrastructure, and labor market reasons – to expand manufacturing to coastal areas. A number of firms interviewed suggested that the Malagasy workforce is far less industrialized and disciplined away from the highlands. In addition to the sheer weight of numbers, employment in the textile industry is valued because of the difference between wages in the textile industry and those in alternative sectors such as agriculture and the informal sectors. Textile sector employment also offers healthcare, pensions, paid leave benefits, and greater stability of employment. According to Nicita and Razzaz (2003), in 1999 three-quarters Madagascar’s textile/clothing employment was held by women. Yet the preponderance of skilled workers is much higher among male workers (70%) than female workers (48%). Women are also much more likely to be hired as temporary workers (17%) than are men (2%). The gender 48 wage gap in the textile industry is substantial, as male workers receive a 30% wage premium compared to equally skilled female workers. This is most likely the result of the sharp division of labor by gender, with men occupying more remunerative positions and women holding most of the temporary jobs. Thus female workers benefit less from textile industry employment than male workers, due mainly to different skills, employment position, and ultimately discrimination. Nevertheless, Nicita and Razzaz conclude that the textile industry probably offers the best opportunity for women to enter the labor market, to obtain economic independence, and to actively contribute to economic development (p. 21). Lack of Cluster Development Strategy in Madagascar Madagascar currently supports three key elements of a vertical textiles chain, i.e. seed cotton production and ginning, spinning and weaving/spinning and knitting, and garment assembly. These are currently supported by suppliers of logistics and energy. Professional associations that actively represent the interests of producers and logistics companies include both the GEM (Madagascar’s Enterprise Association) and the GEFP (Association of Duty-Free Enterprises and Partners). While the existence of these elements is important, Madagascar does not yet have a fully developed textiles “cluster.” The classic model of competitive advantage holds that a country’s most successful industries are those that are linked in clusters through vertical and/or horizontal relationships (Porter 1990). The four determinants of national advantage are depicted as a mutually reinforcing system, or “competitiveness diamond,” by Porter (Figure 5): These four attributes – i.e. the availability of key factors such as skilled labor and infrastructure, the degree to which clear signals are given about what consumers are looking for, the presence of globally competitive supplier industries such as machinery and trims manufacturers, and the presence of a corporate culture, style of management, and competitive market environment that promotes innovation and global perspective – determine the extent to which a cluster will succeed internationally or not. Figure 5: Porter Competitiveness Diamond Firm Strategy, Structure, & Rivalry Factor Conditions Demand Conditions Related & Supporting Industries Source: Porter (1990), p. 72. 49 In the longer run, Madagascar’s cotton-textiles-clothing value-chain will need the support of a more fully developed cluster to succeed. Madagascar lacks the presence of equipment designers and manufacturers, spare parts providers, repair companies, trims manufacturers,25 training institutes, technical and market research firms, industry-specific marketing and advertising firms, and stronger linkages to end-consumers and clients. Madagascar’s existing cluster density is quite thin, especially upstream in both seed cotton production and in spinning, weaving, knitting, and wet processing. The country needs to strengthen the density of the cluster by encouraging foreign direct investment to come to Madagascar to set up competing cotton, textiles, and clothing processors. This will improve the vitality and productivity of the existing firms by strengthening the competitive forces in-country for technology and innovation and offering more market opportunities at each stage of the chain. It will also obviously expand the employment base of the industry. If cluster organizations or capabilities are not available locally, Malagasy firms will need to develop strategic alliances or partnerships with regionally or globally based firms and organizations that can provide these services. Without the development of such a cluster network over time, Madagascar’s cotton, textiles, and clothing firms will remain dependent on international networks to determine their commercial futures. The industry-wide conversation which has developed between private businesses, the government, and the national electricity distributor is indicative of a growing awareness of cluster needs and a growing willingness on the part of government to dialogue for solutions to those needs. On the other hand, some unrest within and among private sector organizations was observed in July 2003. The GEFP was unable to elect a new president at its July meeting. At the same time, a new organization of Anglophone-managed clothing firms appears to be organizing. These suggest that concerns about representation of interests may be rippling through the Malagasy private sector now. Lack of Future Strategic Planning Most firms with whom we spoke were aware of the possible expiration of the AGOA special rule permitting third-country procurement of yarns and fabrics for clothing manufacture. However, instead of being inspired to seek local or other African sources of supply of these inputs, most clothing firms took the position that few local or regional sources of supply could deliver the quantities, qualities, or terms that they need to satisfy U.S. customer requirements. Most informants had heard that the rule would likely be extended. Some mistook President Bush’s proclaimed intention at the June 2003 U.S.-Africa Business Summit in Washington to seek an extension of the overall AGOA legislation beyond its current expiry date of 2008 as a promise to seek extension of the special rule after September 2004. As reported on page 11, the U.S. Senate is exploring “creative approaches” to extend the special provision before its expected expiration. Of the dozen producers with whom we spoke, three are already collaborating closely among themselves and in addition have sought additional sources of input supply from Mauritian and South African firms. Some Madagascar-based managers of clothing operations whose headquarters are located elsewhere seemed relatively ill-informed. However, since these operations specialize in 25 The reopening at the end of 2002 of Coats, the world’s largest supplier of industrial sewing thread and second largest manufacturer of zip fasteners, is another auspicious sign for Madagascar. 50 assembly, they are not responsible for longer term investment and sourcing strategy, leaving that to their headquarters abroad. Another firm indicated it was ready to expand operations in Madagascar and was actively looking for new industrial space to increase employment by several thousand jobs. However, if the third-country AGOA sourcing rule was not extended, this same firm would pack up and move elsewhere. Vietnam, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka were all being considered as alternatives. Even if September 2004 does not bring expiration of the sourcing provision, the general feeling is that rules of origin requirements will eventually (i.e. in one to two years) prevail under AGOA. At present, this will likely affect smaller Malagasy firms that are less well-integrated with international buyers and sourcing agents more adversely than larger and better connected firms. Beyond changes in AGOA’s rules of origin, the world textile and clothing market will undergo significant change when global quotas expire according to the rules of the WTO Agreement on Textiles and Clothing. Successful exporting countries will no longer have to fear the imposition of import quotas, except under safeguard circumstances. This means that AGOA’s advantage will be strictly one of duty exemption into the U.S. market. All producers will have to be competitive, in terms of cost and in terms of reliability, if they are to continue to export successfully. 51 5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS DIVERSITY OF COMPETITIVENESS STRATEGIES There is not one single competitiveness strategy that must be adopted in Madagascar. Every firm seeks its own path, as a function of the talents and resources it can marshal. The choice of strategy is a firm-level decision. It depends on a firm’s position within the value-chain, its links to the international market, its size, and the type and value of product it supplies to the world market. For a small firm with a unique product in the marketplace, the option may be to pursue branding in order to capture greater rents from a product’s uniqueness. Another firm may choose a product niche the demand for which does not vary significantly throughout the year, such as work wear, thereby stabilizing orders and work-in-progress flow-through throughout the year. A company may opt to specialize in manufacture of unique, labor-intensive design to take advantage of the low cost of labor in combination with strong design and needle skills. For a large company with multiple layers of operations, tighter vertical integration in-country or within southern Africa may be the best strategy for controlling risks that can delay shipments and impede competitiveness. The other business model observed in Madagascar, wherein a significant portion of total output is destined for sale to local consumers, is not likely to be terribly successful. A range of household and garment textile-based products is still manufactured in Madagascar for the domestic market. Typically, these firms have been supported by heavy protection against foreign competition. Each of the firms interviewed for this audit for which the local market represented an important final destination complained of invasion by imports, usually from Asia. The local customer base is simply not demanding enough in terms of quality to support the higher prices required by local manufacturers. Foreign producers, who typically run their operations twenty-four hours per day, 362 days per year, and at significantly larger scale, are able to produce at far lower price points. PRIORITIES FOR MADAGASCAR Although there may not be one competitiveness strategy that fits all cotton, textile, and clothing firms in Madagascar, there are a number of cross-cutting issues that affect the competitiveness environment faced by all. These have been addressed in the preceding chapter. In order to prioritize areas for action, this audit first recommends that the Cellule de Réflexion – already constituted as a public-private forum for discussion of industry competitiveness – adopt a broader vision of textile industry-related competitiveness issues. To date, the government and the private sector have opened a dialogue on how to promote the industry, but the focus has been limited on specific sectoral issues, such as the electricity pricing policy. A competitiveness task force for the industry needs to look beyond the cost of electricity to consider the specific issues at each point in the value-chain. This broader perspective will allow fuller appreciation of the relative importance of issues at each stage of production, processing, and trade, in order to prioritize needed actions and assign responsibilities. Participation in the taskforce should also be expanded to include representatives of trade facilitation firms (e.g., Customs, SGS, freight forwarders, shippers, truck 53 transportation companies, the rail company), education and training service providers, and others as needed. Second, private companies should be encouraged to engage in long-term strategic planning to position themselves for the global textiles and clothing market post-2004. The immediate action to be undertaken in this regard should be dissemination of the insights of this competitiveness audit. A workshop in this regard is tentatively scheduled for early November 2003, to be organized by USAID’s AGOA Jumpstart project in collaboration with government and private sector partners. The audit recommends that actions be considered for both the short- and long-term improvement of competitiveness. Short-term priorities are those that can be undertaken largely by virtue of government decision to act. Complementary actions are those that require more substantial investment or more significant partnering and consensus-building among stakeholders. In the short term, Madagascar’s priorities should be to reduce costs and improve efficiency in several key areas: Prioritize improvement in the efficiency of Madagascar’s customs administration and SGS inspection system. Start with a commitment to resolve the impasse observed between the customs authorities and SGS. Modernize and render more transparent the Madagascar customs administration in order to reduce transit times and unofficial fees associated with inspections. This action will have positive spillover effects far beyond that of the clothing industry alone. Make every effort to help the privatized rail line between Antananarivo and Toamasina become operational as quickly as possible, in order to reduce the transport bottleneck faced by Antananarivo-based manufacturers. Reduce the cost of electricity by allowing Jirama to purchase diesel and heavy fuel horstaxes. Confirm whether VAT obligations will once again be required of EPZ firms. Resolve the impasse regarding the future of HASYMA in order to proceed with privatization, recapitalize the organization, and restart domestic seed cotton production. Assess the pro’s and con’s of alternative equity arrangements for increasing domestic and foreign private sector participation in the seed cotton/cotton ginning sector. Work to attract new FDI into the country (especially in spinning, weaving/knitting, and wet processing) to strengthen the density, vibrancy, and productivity of the cotton-textilesclothing cluster. Longer term, the following complementary actions are needed: Encourage increased interaction (commercial investigation and trade promotion/inspection tours, regional trade fairs) between Malagasy cotton, textiles, and clothing firms and those in other AGOA-eligible countries to develop regional trade linkages and alternative sources of input supply post-expiration of the special AGOA rule on third-country input provision. Deepen understanding of the potential for and constraints to expanded seed cotton production in Madagascar. Research the economics of long-staple cotton production. Undertake more detailed comparative advantage analysis of seed cotton and lint production, to gain deeper understanding of key technical parameters as well as economic or opportunity costs of key 54 tradable & non-tradable inputs, and competitiveness through ginning stage. Conduct farming systems research to understand relative incentives to farmers to produce seed cotton versus other crops. To help improve customs operation in Madagascar, encourage participation by Malagasy officials in international customs forums and encourage interaction with colleagues from developing country customs administrations that have successfully modernized, such as in Morocco. Develop a plan to improve the technical productivity of the chain’s workforce, e.g. Madagascar needs to expand its supply of mid-level managers in technical and business areas, e.g. fiber and textiles engineering, technical support personnel, skilled assembly operators, textile arts and fashion design, international branding, market analysts, international sales and contracting, and logistics managers. 55 Appendices A. WHAT IS “COMPETITIVENESS?” Competitiveness is defined in various ways in the literature (Salinger 2001b; Kandiero, Salinger, and Warner 2003). It is sometimes used interchangeably with the economic notion of comparative advantage, referring to the economic cost of production of a good relative to an international reference price (and may be referred to as “cost competitiveness”). It has also been defined in an even narrower sense to evaluate the financial performance of firms (Cockburn et al. 1996; Siggel 2003). Researchers have used it to measure the economic performance of industries and firms within countries (Wangwe 1995), localities (Kanter 1995), or whole countries (World Economic Forum (WEF) various). In the management and business literature, the term competitiveness is a private sector development concept, referring to the ability of firms to master a range of qualitative management concepts (Porter 1990; Fairbanks and Lindsay 1997; Salinger 2003). The term “competitiveness” evolved in the 1990s as an alternative conceptual framework to “comparative advantage.” The roots of this paradigm shift echo the shift in patterns of trade from a predominance of fairly standardized, homogeneous commodities to a predominance of more complex and differentiated manufactured goods and services. With fairly standardized commodities, competition is based on a firm’s efficiency relative to world reference prices. With increased product differentiation, it is extremely difficult to establish “reference prices,” and thus a host of more nuanced variables in addition to cost determines the extent to which firms compete in the marketplace. Porter focuses primarily on clusters that produce more complex and heterogeneous products and services. He defines competitiveness as the productivity with which a nation, region, or cluster uses its human, capital, and natural resources. His “competitiveness diamond” emphasizes the myriad of qualitative factors that shape a firm’s or cluster’s competitiveness. Interactions are highlighted between (1) the local institutional context that shapes firm strategy and rivalry, and encourages investment and sustained upgrading; (2) local factor (input) conditions (i.e. human resources, capital resources, physical infrastructure, administrative infrastructure, information infrastructure, scientific and technological infrastructure, and natural resources); (3) local demand conditions; and (4) the presence of related and supporting industries, such as locally-based suppliers and firms in related fields, as well as the presence of “clusters” instead of isolated industries. In deciding where to invest overseas and/or with whom to enter into commercial relationships, American electronics and textile firms evaluate national factors to narrow down the number of eligible country platforms, before pursuing individual firms with which they might do business (McMillan, Pandolfi, and Salinger 1999). Firms report that cheap labor is no longer sufficient to attract foreign direct investment. In addition to costs and taxes, other factors that determine their selection of developing country partners are local labor and management skills, production and marketing infrastructure, the regulatory and business environment, U.S. trade relations with the country under consideration, and the labor and environmental conditions of the country and local partner firms. 57 In addition, experience in successful economies suggests that effective workforce development systems (WFD) are also needed to support competitive cluster growth (Aring 2002; Aring, Belghazi, Bouzri, Salinger 2003). Only when a thriving workforce development system – connecting education and training institutions, employers, government policy makers, and workers – is in place can clusters hope to maximize their competitiveness. In recognition of this dynamic, Aring’s workforce development diamond adapts Porter’s competitiveness diamond to include education and training institutions as one of the four points, in addition to market conditions and the policy environment, workforce supply, and employers. Workforce development strategies may include strengthening linkages among these actors, working with employers to develop skills certification for specific clusters, developing lifelong learning systems, encouraging productivity and quality through industry-university R&D partnerships, extending competitiveness services through agricultural and industrial extension outreach by technical colleges and training institutes, fostering cluster growth, addressing youth employment challenges, or building entrepreneurship programs.26 26 For further information on workforce development-related activities, see USAID’s Global Workforce in Transition (GWIT) project website, www.gwit.us/overview.asp. 58 B. COTTON PRODUCTION COSTS, PROFITABILITY, AND REFERENCE PRICES Table 20: Cost of Seed Cotton Production, Toliara 2002/03 MADAGASCAR: AUDIT DE COMPETITIVITE DE LA CHAINE-VALEUR TEXTILES (2003) Analyse de la compétitivité -coût de la production du fibre Système de production: Toliara, irriguée Société: HASYMA Rendement (champ): 848 kg/ha Rendement (égrenage): 40% kg fibre/kg coton graine Coûts a la production (FMG/ha) Facteurs de production (implicite) Main d'oeuvre Terre Frais financiers Coûts financiers 90 1 h-jours ha 6,000 75,000 FMG/h-j FMG/ha Taxes/ subventions Coûts économiques 75,000 - 75,000 - Echangeables Nonéchangeables 75,000 Intrants (avances par HASYMA) Semences Sac de semences Engrais Urée Phosphate d'ammoniaque Insecticides Piles Location aspirateur a dos 12,500 12,500 6,250 6,250 29,342 33,175 388,440 14,400 2,500 29,342 33,175 388,440 14,400 2,500 20,539 23,223 271,908 10,080 1,750 8,803 9,953 116,532 4,320 750 Travaux agricoles (autofinancement) Défrichement Labour Hersage Billonnage Destruction Nettoyage 125,000 10,000 14,774 41,140 - 125,000 10,000 14,774 41,140 - 25,000 2,000 2,955 100,000 8,000 11,819 41,140 - 59 Epandage phosphate Semis/resemis Herbicidage Démariage Sarclages/rasette Epandage urée Irrigation Traitement insecticides Récolte coton graine Approvisionnement champ Transport Coûts totaux (coton-graine), champ Rendement (champ): Coûts totaux (coton-graine), champ Rendement (égrenage): Coûts totaux (equiv fibre), champ Coûts de transformation en fibre Coûts d'égrenage Frais d'approche (Egren->COTONA) Coûts totaux, fibre (CIF, COTONA) 5,000 32,058 10,000 25,000 236,678 5,000 30,000 156,674 848 40% FMG/ha kg/ha FMG/kg coton-graine kg fibre/kg coton-graine FMG/kg fibre FMG/kg fibre FMG/kg fibre FMG/kg fibre Source: HASYMA 60 5,000 32,058 10,000 25,000 236,678 5,000 30,000 156,674 5,000 32,058 10,000 25,000 236,678 5,000 30,000 156,674 9,522 2,857 6,665 3,999 2,666 1,256,203 2,857 1,253,346 367,704 885,642 1,481 3 1,478 434 1,044 3,703 8 3,695 1,084 2,611 2,266 1,492 7,462 113 448 569 2,153 1,045 6,892 387 627 2,098 1,765 418 4,794 Table 21: Cost of Seed Cotton Production, Mahajanga 2003 (HASYMA) MADAGASCAR: AUDIT DE COMPETITIVITE DE LA CHAINE-VALEUR TEXTILES (2003) Analyse de la compétitivité -coût de la production du fibre Système de production: Mahajanga, décru Société: HASYMA Rendement (champ): 1700 kg/ha Rendement (égrenage): 40% kg fibre/kg coton- graine Coûts a la production (FMG/ha) Facteurs de production (implicite) Main d'oeuvre Terre Frais financiers Coûts financiers 158 1 h-jours ha 6,000 100,000 FMG/h-j FMG/ha Intrants (avances par HASYMA) Semences Sac de semences Engrais Urée Phosphate d'ammoniaque Insecticides Piles Location aspirateur a dos Echangeables Non échangeables 100,000 100,000 - 20,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 255,000 255,000 571,070 140,000 178,500 399,749 98,000 76,500 171,321 42,000 278,378 111,486 94,595 - 55,676 - 222,702 111,486 94,595 - 140,000 278,378 111,486 94,595 61 Coûts économiques 100,000 - 571,070 Travaux agricoles (autofinancement) Défrichement Labour Hersage Billonnage Destruction Nettoyage Epandage phosphate Semis/resemis Herbicidage Taxes/ subventions Démariage Sarclages/rasette Epandage urée Irrigation Traitement insecticides Récolte coton-graine Approvisionnement champ Transport Coûts totaux (coton-graine), champ Rendement (champ): Coûts totaux (coton-graine), champ Rendement (égrenage): Coûts totaux (equiv fibre), champ Coûts de transformation en fibre Coûts d'égrenage Frais d'approche (Egren->COTONA) Coûts totaux, fibre (CIF, COTONA) 84,189 200,000 1700 40% FMG/ha kg/ha FMG/kg coton-graine kg fibre/kg coton-graine FMG/kg fibre FMG/kg fibre FMG/kg fibre FMG/kg fibre Source: HASYMA 62 130,000 330,553 21,486 87,081 26,124 84,189 200,000 130,000 330,553 21,486 60,957 36,574 84,189 200,000 130,000 330,553 21,486 24,383 2,423,838 26,124 2,397,714 778,499 1,619,215 1,426 15 1,410 458 952 3,564 38 3,526 1,145 2,381 2,266 1,458 7,288 113 437 589 2,153 1,020 6,699 387 612 2,145 1,765 408 4,555 Table 22: Cost of Seed Cotton Production, Mahajanga 2003 (Northwest Producers’ Union) MADAGASCAR: AUDIT DE COMPETITIVITE DE LA CHAINE-VALEUR TEXTILES (2003) Analyse de la compétitivité- coût de la production du fibre Système de production: Mahajanga, décru Société: Northwest Producers' Union Rendement (champ): 1700 kg/ha Rendement (égrenage): 40% kg fibre/kg coton-graine Coûts a la production (FMG/ha) Facteurs de production (implicite) Main d'oeuvre Terre Frais financiers (BOA) Intrants (avances par HASYMA) Semences Sac de semences Engrais Urée Potasse Insecticides Piles Location aspirateur a dos Coûts financiers 158 1 13% 70 2 150 50 h-jours ha interet Taxes/ subventions Coûts économiques Echangeables Nonéchangeables 6,000 300,000 500,000 FMG/h-j FMG/ha FMG/ha 300,000 65,000 300,000 65,000 kg sacs 250 8,000 FMG/kg FMG/sac 17,500 16,000 17,500 8,750 8,750 kg kg 1,750 2,000 FMG/kg FMG/kg 262,500 100,000 309,000 262,500 100,000 309,000 - 183,750 70,000 216,300 - 78,750 30,000 92,700 - 125,000 75,000 50,000 - 25,000 15,000 - 100,000 60,000 50,000 - Travaux agricoles (autofinancement) Défrichement Labour Hersage Billonnage Destruction Nettoyage Epandage phosphate Semis/resemis Herbicidage 150,000 125,000 75,000 50,000 63 300,000 65,000 Démariage Sarclages/rasette Epandage urée Irrigation Traitement insecticides Récolte coton-graine Approvisionnement champ Transport Coûts totaux (coton-graine), champ Rendement (champ): Coûts totaux (coton-graine), champ Rendement (égrenage): Coûts totaux (équiv fibre), champ Couts de transformation en fibre Couts d'egrenage Frais d'approche (Egren->COTONA) Couts totaux, fibre (CIF, COTONA) 50,000 150,000 - 50,000 150,000 130,000 300,000 - 2,100,000 - 1,934,000 518,800 1,415,200 1,235 - 1,138 305 832 3,088 - 2,844 763 2,081 2,266 1,339 6,693 113 402 515 2,153 937 5,934 387 562 1,713 1,765 375 4,221 130,000 300,000 1700 40% FMG/ha kg/ha FMG/kg coton-graine kg fibre/kg coton-graine FMG/kg fibre FMG/kg fibre FMG/kg fibre FMG/kg fibre Source: President, Union Tara-Bolamena 64 - 50,000 150,000 130,000 300,000 - Table 23: Reference Price for Cotton Fiber (Import-Substitution) MADAGASCAR: AUDIT DE COMPETITIVITE DE LA CHAINE-VALEUR TEXTILES (2003) Analyse de la compétitivité -coût de la production du fibre Coûts financiers Prix mondial, coton-fibre CIF, N Europe cents/livre 60 Assurance, fret cents/livre Ajustement pour la qualité cents/livre Prix mondial, coton-fibre CAF, Tamatave cents/livre 60 * Taux de change 6000 FMG/$ Prix mondial, coton-fibre CAF, Tamatave FMG/livre 3,600 Prix mondial, coton-fibre CAF, Tamatave FMG/kg 7,920 Frais d'approche Tamatave- usines de FMG/kg filature 1,980 Prix mondial, coton-fibre CAF, Cotona FMG/kg 9,900 Frais d'approche Cotona- usines d'égrenage FMG/kg 1,980 Prix mondial, coton-fibre FOB, HASYMA FMG/kg 7,920 65 C. SURVEY OF DEVELOPING COUNTRY ELECTRICITY MARKETS Summary All countries must allocate limited resources to various policy goals. Around the world, governments make a vast array of policy choices about how to promote industrialization of their economies, believing that industrialization is an important element of a country’s development. Trade, tax, exchange rate, interest rate, government expenditure, market regulation, state ownership, pricing, transportation, infrastructure, and investment promotion decisions all enter into the mix. The pricing of energy, both electricity and fuel, is a sensitive issue. It may be guided by a number of policy objectives, often of conflicting purpose: to encourage the use of energy for industrial development purposes, to encourage household consumption of energy, to encourage shifts within demand to more environmentally acceptable forms of consumption, and so forth. Energy pricing is thus frequently the object of intense lobbying by regional or sectoral interests seeking energy subsidies. In addition, a country’s level of wealth and energy infrastructure development, and its degree of reliance on market forces, all may influence its ability to afford the programs it seeks to achieve its policy objectives. As noted by the World Energy Council, The primary challenge in developed countries in terms of market reform is usually to bring prices down to the competitive cost of service. However, in developing countries the challenges are to set prices high enough to cover the full cost of delivering the service and to ensure that payment is collected. Of course, this must be coupled with appropriate measures to address specific problems of accessibility and affordability. (World Energy Council 2001, p. 3) A reliable supply of electricity is an essential element for economic development. This relationship is demonstrated in a scatter plot of real per capita income and per capita electricity consumption for 115 countries, in Figure 6 below. 67 Figure 6: Real Income and Electricity Consumption (2000) 30,000 25,000 KwH per capita 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 GDP per capita (1995 $) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators A stable energy sector promotes macroeconomic stability and alleviates poverty. In fact, the history of development proves that countries that do not use modern forms of energy efficiently cannot realize their potential to create wealth and lift their populations out of poverty (World Bank Energy Program 2001). In order to provide for the needs of growing industry and population levels, electricity provision must be adequate and consistent. This appendix explores common electricity demand and supply trends among a number of newly industrializing (and in many instances, textilesproducing) developing countries, as well as current initiatives to expand capacity to provide for the nations’ development needs. Industrial consumer electricity rates for 54 countries are presented in Table 24 (synthesized in Figure 7). Taking a subset of the 54 country dataset, focusing on newly industrializing, developing countries only, Madagascar’s rate is higher than the cost of electricity in textile producing countries such as South Africa, the Czech Republic, Mexico, Taiwan, and South Korea, but somewhat lower than the rate in a few other key producing countries such as Portugal, India, and Turkey (Figure 8). 68 Figure 7: World Industry Electricity Rates, 2000 0.200 0.180 0.160 0.140 $/kwh 0.120 0.100 0.080 0.060 0.040 0.020 Tr in id a d an Ru s d To sia ba Ec go ua do Au r s C Ge tria ze ch rma R ny ep ub Be lic lg iu m M e C x hi C ne o ico se Ne lom Ta th bi a ip erla ei (T nds ai w H an on ) C dur os as ta R G ua ica te m al Tu a rk ey Su Ita rin El ly am S a l (S vad ur o in r am e) 0.000 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration Figure 8: Industry Electricity Rates, Newly Industrializing Countries 0.090 0.080 0.070 ($/kwh) 0.060 0.050 0.040 0.030 0.020 0.010 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 69 Tu rk ey In di a ex ico Th ai Ta la nd ip Ko ei re (T a a iw (K an or ea ) ,S ou th M ) ad ag as ca r Po rtu ga l ne se M Sp ai n Hu ng ar y Ire la nd Ch i Cz ec h So ut h Af ri ca Re pu bl ic 0.000 Table 24: Electricity Prices for Industrial Consumers (US$ per kwH) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Russia 0.022 0.031 0.044 0.047 0.028 0.012 0.011 Kazakhstan n.a. n.a. 0.021 0.023 0.030 0.018 0.013 South Africa 0.025 0.029 0.023 0.023 0.020 0.017 0.017 Trinidad and Tobago n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.023 New Zealand 0.036 0.038 0.044 0.040 0.035 0.030 0.030 Paraguay n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.032 Ecuador n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.036 France 0.053 0.060 0.057 0.049 0.047 0.044 0.036 Poland 0.035 0.040 0.040 0.036 0.037 0.037 0.037 Austria 0.072 0.081 0.081 0.081 0.078 0.057 0.038 Finland 0.050 0.060 0.062 0.052 0.050 0.046 0.039 United 0.047 0.047 0.046 0.045 0.045 0.039 0.040 Germany 0.089 0.100 0.086 0.072 0.067 0.057 0.041 Greece 0.055 0.062 0.059 0.054 0.050 0.050 0.042 Slovak Republic (Slovakia) 0.045 0.049 0.049 0.049 0.049 0.041 0.042 Czech Republic 0.056 0.061 0.059 0.052 0.052 0.048 0.043 Spain 0.078 0.076 0.074 0.061 0.057 0.049 0.043 OECD1 0.073 0.079 0.074 0.069 0.065 0.063 0.047 Belgium 0.067 0.077 0.073 0.062 0.061 0.056 0.048 Hungary 0.046 0.045 0.048 0.054 0.056 0.055 0.049 Ireland 0.061 0.065 0.066 0.063 0.059 0.057 0.049 Mexico 0.042 0.027 0.033 0.041 0.038 0.042 0.051 0.071 0.076 0.074 0.065 0.065 0.060 0.052 Chile n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.052 Colombia n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.052 United Kingdom 0.067 0.068 0.065 0.065 0.065 0.064 0.055 Peru n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.056 Netherlands 0.065 0.075 0.072 0.063 0.062 0.061 0.057 Thailand 0.066 0.066 0.071 0.059 0.052 0.054 0.057 Denmark 0.063 0.069 0.073 0.064 0.068 0.066 0.058 Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) 0.076 0.076 0.073 0.069 0.058 0.058 0.061 Bolivia n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.062 Korea (Korea, South) 0.069 0.074 0.074 0.070 0.048 0.056 0.062 Honduras n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.063 Uruguay n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.064 Portugal 0.112 0.118 0.108 0.094 0.090 0.078 0.067 Costa Rica n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.068 Switzerland 0.106 0.125 0.120 0.102 0.101 0.090 0.069 Argentina n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.075 Guatemala n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.076 Cuba n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.080 OECD States3, 4 Europe2 70 India 0.070 0.068 0.073 0.089 0.082 0.081 0.080 Turkey 0.077 0.076 0.086 0.077 0.075 0.079 0.080 Guyana n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.082 Haiti n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.087 Italy 0.091 0.093 0.101 0.094 0.095 0.086 0.089 Panama n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.099 Dominican Rep. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.110 El Salvador n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.111 Nicaragua n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.117 Jamaica n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.119 Surinam (Suriname) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.131 Grenada n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.189 Barbados n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.190 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/elecprii.html Notes: (1) Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. (2) Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. (3) Price excluding tax. (4) Note: Data for 1999-2002 do not agree with the most recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration which are 0.044, 0.046, 0.050, and 0.048, respectively. n.a. = Not Available. Global Trends Demand/ Consumption Trends. Worldwide, electricity consumption is expected to increase 2.4 % annually from 2001 to 2025. Developing nations in particular are expected to consume 5,648 billion more megawatt hours (MWh) of commercial electricity in 2025 than in 2001. Projected growth in electricity use in Asia is greater than any other world region, at 3.7 % per year (International Energy Outlook 2003). These increasing demands are the result of rapid population growth as well as rising living standards and economic growth. New home appliances for refrigeration, air conditioning, heating, and cooking as well as expanded networks in rural areas continues to drive up electricity demand. Additional determinants of energy consumption that vary among nations include preferences, structure of the economy, endogenous resources, state of technology, and price of energy (IEA 1999, p. 51). Diversified Supply. The developing countries considered here obtain the majority of their electricity from thermal sources. Hydroelectric facilities follow closely as the second major source. Thermal sources use a variety of combinations of oil, natural gas and coal, depending on their level of endowment of these natural resources. Hydropower is the major source of supply in South America; in 2001 it represented 73% of the region’s electricity fuel market. Nuclear power contributes a small and declining share of supply, except in Asia where nuclear is expected to remain at a stable 9 %, and investments in nuclear plants continue. 71 State ownership. In these countries, most energy sectors are under primary control of the state. In many cases these state-owned enterprises are inefficient and unprofitable. As a result, a number of governments are moving towards privatization. Privatization of stateowned energy companies is currently underway in Pakistan, China, South Korea, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey. Prices. Prices vary in all countries, quite considerably in the developing countries profiled in this report. Price levels are determined by a combination of service costs and energy policy pressures. Of the four main stages in the electricity value-chain, the first stage – generation – represents the largest share of cost, compared with transmission, distribution, and supply. Another important element of price determination is government-sponsored subsidies, which are often used for social purposes (i.e. income redistribution, extending access to the poor, etc.) as well as to encourage consumption of a particular source of energy. The current worldwide trend is towards increased role of markets and reduction of subsidies and price controls (IEA 1999, p.3). Prices are an important determinant of the efficiency of energy use. Many observers, including the IEA, argue that subsidies – by keeping prices below cost – encourage over-consumption. Artificially low prices can produce substantial economic losses, strain tight budgets, increase harmful environmental impacts, and discourage investment. Most developed nations have moved away from heavy subsidization of their electricity sectors, yet the highest price-altering subsidies persist in the developing world. These poorer countries are, however, beginning to realize the benefits of reducing price subsidies on their state budget, environmental quality, and overall economic performance (IEA 1999). Investment. In order to respond to growing demand, many governments are planning to increase capacity through investment in plants and easing rules that restrict foreign direct investment (FDI) in the energy sector. Projected annual investment in developing country power sectors required to keep up with growing demand exceeds $60 billion (IEA 1999, p.35). Governments are becoming increasingly receptive to accepting foreign Independent Power Producers (IPPs) which are contributing to the growth in power generation in India, Pakistan, South Korea, Morocco, Mexico, Turkey, and South Asia. In recent years foreign investment in energy has slowed. Investments in developing countries were at a peak in 1997 at $49 billion, and have fallen to one-fifth of peak levels in 2001 (Energy Information Administration 2003b). Electricity Market Highlights in Selected Countries The following descriptions demonstrate that Madagascar is not alone in confronting the problems of rising demand for electricity exceeding its generation capacity and the search for new forms of ownership to promote badly needed private capital. Pricing policies in these countries are varied. Some countries subsidize consumption to target consumers (sometimes industrial, sometimes rural households), others keep prices low because they are surplus producers of energy generation inputs (e.g., coal) or by refusing to tax the import of such inputs. 72 South Africa South Africa generates two-thirds of Africa's electricity and is one of the four cheapest electricity producers in the world, largely due to a relative abundance of coal and low production costs. This abundance of low-cost electricity has made the South African economy one of the most electricityintensive economies of the world (IEA 1999, p.169). Rural electrification programs are resulting in fast growth of residential consumption. Electricity generation is primarily coal-fired, although also includes one nuclear plant, two gas turbine facilities, and several hydroelectric plants. Energy subsidies are relatively low, concentrated on electricity sales which are subsidized through underpricing power sales and connections. The average rate of subsidization is higher for industry, around 24%, than for households at 10% (IEA 1999, p.176). South Africa’s electricity is almost entirely provided by the parastatal company Eskom, although privatization of a large part of the electricity sector is on the horizon (Fossil Energy International 2003). In addition, a number of plants have been purchased recently by private local and foreign companies. In December 2001, U.S.-based AES acquired a 600-MW coal plant from the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality, creating the first independent power project in South Africa. Eskom’s power stations have a combined generating capacity of 35,200 MW and can produce electricity at 2 cents per kilowatt-hour. The government is trying to diversify away from its heavy reliance on coal. In 2001, the South African Parliament passed a natural gas bill, which set up a regulatory system and provided incentives to attract investment in the natural gas industry. Other recent reforms regarding natural gas include price discounts to small businesses to improve the competitiveness of natural gas. Denver-based Forest Oil is considering investing $1.2 billion into its natural gas concession in South Africa, including $800 million for exploration and $400 million for a pipeline. The government also recognizes potential in hydropower and other renewable energy sources, and plans to support the development and demonstration of new technologies. Eskom exports power to a number of neighboring African nations such as Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe. The Southern African Power Pool (SAPP), created in 1995, aims to link member countries in a single electricity grid to provide increased reliability at lower cost. SAPP membership includes 12 national utilities, and the organization is considering increased participation of IPPs. The SAPP has proved successful in increasing power trade among member nations, resulting in annual increases of 20% (SAPP, EIA 2002). Several regional generation and transmission projects are underway which include developing hydroelectric facilities, plants, and dams for the mutual benefit of countries involved as well as plans to connect power grids among members.27 Mauritius Demand for energy in Mauritius is increasing 8-10% annually. The nation, which currently uses mostly diesel and coal- and bagasse-fired energy sources (in addition to a small percentage generated with hydroelectric and gas), is planning on expanding energy capacity with specific attention on renewable resources. As part of this government strategy to promote renewable energy, Mauritius 27 A study on the impact of the similar West Africa Power Pool determined that interconnection would bring greater reliability and lower costs for business and households, resulting in a significant economic boost for the region (Plunkett et al. 2001). 73 launched an $80,000 solar energy project in 2000. Also in 2000, a U.S.-constructed co-generation plant burning bagasse and coal came into operation. The government plans to construct a 300 MW thermal plant in upcoming years as well. Currently, 38% of the country’s energy needs are provided by IPPs. Mauritius imports its fuel from Madagascar’s petroleum refinery, Galana. Industrial consumers of petroleum products in Mauritius are exempt from taxes and pay only half the distribution margin paid by non-industrial consumers. The result is an industrial purchase price of heavy fuel in Mauritius of 19.8 U.S. cents per liter (compared with 30.1 U.S. cents per liter in Madagascar, where taxes and distribution margins apply to industrial consumption). Morocco Morocco currently imports 90% of its needs for energy, primarily oil and coal. Coal is imported into Morocco without duty or value-added tax, only the payment of a consumption tax per ton imported. To keep up with 7% annual increases in demand, the state is encouraging increased coal and hydroelectricity production and is planning several new plants for construction. At present, Morocco has 25 hydroelectric plants, 5 steam thermal facilities, 9 turbine stations, several diesel plants, and has recently completed expansion of a high-capacity coal-fired Jorf Lasfar plant. The project’s major investor, U.S.-based CMS Energy Corp., operates a thirty-year, fixed-price concession from the National Electricity Office at Jorf-Lasfar, now Africa’s largest independent power plant. The coalfiring plants generate 60 percent of Morocco’s total electricity consumption. The government plans to expand electricity access (which is currently only available to 15% of the rural population) and to increase investments in renewable energy sources, e.g. hydroelectric, solar, and wind power, in the coming years. The National Electricity Office is the initiating force behind new investments in these other generation sectors, and seeks to involve foreign investors in future renewable energy projects. A study by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency is underway to develop a plan to expand the interconnected power transmission network between Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. Morocco’s textile industry, which employs nearly 200,000, was granted an energy subsidy after intense lobbying by its textile and clothing association, AMITH (Just-Style 2002). Turkey Turkey’s energy consumption had been on a fast upward trend due to growing population and urbanization, until recent economic difficulties slowed the pace of the increase. Assuming a return to economic growth, electricity consumption should begin to increase again at a fast pace, which would require significant investment in supply. Net electricity generation in Turkey has more than doubled over the past decade, but is not sufficient to keep up with expected demand. The country uses almost equal amounts of thermal and hydropower. It abandoned plans for a nuclear plant, but is developing more hydroelectric power resources and coal- and natural gas-fired plants. Turkey is heavily dependent on imported oil and gas from Turkmenistan, Bulgaria, Russia, and Iran. In 2001 in order to increase FDI in the energy sector, Turkey ratified the Energy Charter Treaty, an international legal framework for energy investment, and also passed an energy liberalization law aimed at ending government monopoly. In addition, the government plans to divide the Turkish Electricity Generation and Transmission Company (TEAS) into three independent companies. The government recently adopted a policy of encouraging foreign investment in power plants and natural gas pipelines to meet the anticipated demand. Germany’s Siemens AG leads a project for the 74 construction of a 1,300 MW coal-fired plant in southern Turkey. Turkey is also considered to have great potential for wind, geothermal, and solar power, in which it also plans to increase investment. In February 1998, the U.S.-Turkey Joint Statement on Hydropower Projects was signed which listed nine hydroelectric projects to be negotiated with consortia headed by American firms. India India is experiencing serious power supply problems. Economic development and population growth are driving energy demand faster than India can produce it, and current generation falls about 30% below demand. Power outages and blackouts are common. Although 80% of the population has access to electricity, its reliability is so uncertain that it constitutes a significant constraint on economic development in the country. Electricity is primarily generated from conventional thermal as well as hydroelectric plants, and a small percentage from nuclear plants. India is attempting to expand its electric power generation capacity, but efforts have been hampered by financial difficulties. India’s State Electricity Boards, which control generating capacity as well as power distribution, are in such poor financial shape that many of them are technically insolvent. Their financial trouble can be partially attributed to the sale of power at subsidized rates. Subsidies originated from social and political policy, but unsustainably high rates are beginning to be phased out. Coal, the main energy input, sells about 13% below the reference value for steam coal. Household electricity subsidies are as high as 63.8% (IEA, 1999, p.140). Reduction of these high costs to government will likely reduce consumption and free funds for needed infrastructure development and additional investments in the industry. The Indian government’s 2002-2007 plan calls for the addition of 41,000 MW of electricity capacity. Some analysts believe the target is unrealistic unless significant amounts of foreign investment can be attracted, since India’s state boards are financially ill-equipped to fund plant construction by themselves. The government of India approved several “mega projects” for thermal and hydroelectric plants of high capacity to be built in the late 1990s, but these were never constructed. Several planned foreign investment projects were also cancelled as a result of financial problems within India’s state boards, and no major foreign-owned projects have been launched in the past year, despite increased liberalization and easing of FDI rules in the energy sector. Pakistan In Pakistan more than half of the population is not connected to the national power grid. Although in the short term Pakistan has some excess generation capacity, demand growth is expected in increase significantly in the longer term, as more of the population gains access. Two major problems inhibiting growth in the industry include power theft and poor quality of infrastructure, which together account for transmission losses of up to 30%. The power sector is primarily controlled by the state, but efforts to privatize are underway. The main state-owned utility, the Water and Power Development Authority, is being split up for privatization. The Authority currently has plans for investment in hydropower. IPPs have fueled recent growth in power generation in recent years, and are mainly invested in natural gas projects. The two biggest power plants are in private hands. Foreign investment can also be accredited with the substantial increase in power-generating capacity and reduction in power shortages in Pakistan. 75 Sri Lanka Like the rest of South Asia, energy consumption is growing rapidly in Sri Lanka. So, too, is the risk of energy shortfalls and electricity outages. Net electricity consumption doubled between 1991 and 2000. The current growth rate of electricity demand in Sri Lanka averages 8% annually and is expected to continue at that rate into the future. Hydropower is the main power source in the country, placing Sri Lankans at greater risk and vulnerability to weather conditions. To meet demands, investment is necessary to increase capacity from the 2000 level of 6,800 GW to about 15,000 in 2013. Plans for investment include increasing the share of thermal power generation, primarily from coal, to prevent major shortages. In addition to diversifying sources of supply, Sri Lanka and other South Asian nations are promoting foreign investment in infrastructure development, privatizing energy sectors, and expanding regional trade and energy investment. China China is the second largest energy consumer in the world, behind the United States, as well as the world’s third largest producer (following the U.S. and Russia) (IEA 1999, p.93). Chinese electricity consumption is expected to grow at an average of 4.3 % per year through 2025. China uses a combination of energy sources, the majority of which is thermal, yet significant potential in hydropower exists. The nation is currently initiating several large investments in energy capacity to meet the growing needs of its population. China’s electricity market is currently dominated by state-owned power plants. However, new commitments to trade and investment liberalization should attract significant amounts of foreign investment. Energy subsidies account for an average price distortion of 11% and current levels of electricity subsidization are about 40%. As China increases global market integration, costs and prices will begin to gravitate to international levels (International Energy Agency 1999, p.103). Mexico Mexico has not been able to meet demand for electricity. Although 95% of Mexican households are electrified, thousands of rural towns have not yet received access. Many households experience frequent power outages. In addition, electricity consumption increased by about 60% in the past decade and demand is expected to grow at a rate of 6.7% annually. The state-owned Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) enjoys a monopoly on the electricity market, generating approximately 92% of electricity in Mexico. IPPs have limited involvement, and are permitted to build generation facilities for power used by related industrial facilities or for sale to public utilities. The Mexican government is beginning to promote IPP installation and co-generation systems in order to relieve the CFE from the expense of constructing plants. The Fox Administration is currently working on ways to attract foreign investment capital to finance hydrocarbons drilling, production, and electricity infrastructure improvements. The administration has had less success in its attempts to reform the electricity sector, as plans have stalled in the legislation process. Proposed reforms include the privatization of PREMEX, Mexico’s state-owned oil and gas company. Despite delays, CFE is making continued investments in energy capacity and transmission. It has recently begun projects involving private companies to install hundreds of miles of new high voltage transmission lines over the next few years. Mexico has not exhibited a policy promoting large-scale expansion of hydroelectric power like many of its Latin American neighbors, nor is it planning on 76 constructing additional nuclear plants, but foreign investors have expressed interest in other forms of renewable energy including wind and solar. Spain's electric company, Iberdrola, is interested in building wind farms in Mexico as well as Brazil. The company plans to invest $4 million between the two countries. Brazil In Brazil, the majority of installed electric capacity is hydropower, placing it at a top ranking of the world’s hydropower producers. This heavy reliance on hydropower places Brazil at the mercy of fluctuating rainfall levels, which increases the risk of energy shortages. Below-average rainfall and underinvestment in the industry have kept supply far below growing demand for electricity. Consumption in 2000 was 58% greater than in 1990, the result of a fastgrowing economy and standard of living. The government’s solution in 2001 to the problem of excess demand was an energy rationing program, which effectively cut consumption by 20%. For the long term, estimates of required investment to sustain growth in demand are as high as $4.8 billion. State investment plans include pooling hydroelectricity with thermoelectric plants, construction of new transmission lines, and the construction and expansion of nuclear plants. Currently, electricity generation and transmission are government-controlled, while distribution is left to private firms. A privatization program is underway on the generation side, as three of the major federal utilities have been split into smaller generating and distributing utilities. In addition, import duties and excise taxes have been lowered on power generation equipment, increasing opportunity for foreign business. Recent efforts toward liberalization have also resulted in lower energy subsidies, which were only 1.6% in 1999 (IEA 1999 p.20). 77 D. LIST OF CONTACTS Government of Madagascar Vice Prime Minister in charge of Economic Programs, Ministry of Transport, Public Works, and Infrastructure Zaza Manitranja Ramandimbiarison Freddie Mahazoasy, Director of Planning and Strategy Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries Noël Raharijaona, Director of Cabinet Eden Clermont Ratombozafy, Directeur du Développement du Partenariat Micheline Raoelison, Chef de Service, Relations avec les Partenaires Techniques et Financiers Rozanski Rakotonindrina, Chef de Service, International Relations Yvonne Rabenantoandro, Scientific Director, FOFIFA (Centre National de la Recherche Appliquée au Développement Rural) Ministry of Economy, Finances, and Budget Gérard Ramihone, Director General of Customs Ministry of Energy and Mines Rodolphe Ramanantsoa, Director of Energy Ministry of Industrialization, Commerce, and Private Sector Development Mejamirado Razafimihary, Minister Olga Rasamimanana, Secretary General Electricity JIRAMA Désiré Rasidy, Director General Seed Cotton, Fiber, Spinning/Weaving Sector COTONA (La Cotonnière d’Antsirabe) Charles Giblain, Managing Director Christopher Darguence, Attaché, Direction Cotona cotton production expert Fanavotana Tassadouk Fidaly, Assistant Director General Northwest Cotton Producers’ Association Albert Rija, President & Member of HASYMA Board of Directors 79 HASYMA Léon Razanamamonjy, Director General Henri Rakotofiringa, Director of Production Société Malgache de Couvertures (SOMACOU) Christian Malsch, Director General Garment Sector Boda Voahangy Voahangy Ramananarinoro, President & CEO CCC (Columbia Clothing Company) Indrajith Kumarasiri, General Manager + 2 Directors of Logistics Cottonline S.A. Nalaka Rambukpota, General Manager Mika Rarivo, Senior Executive – Logistics Epsilon Olivier Cua, Technical Director Patrice de Comarmond, Administrative and Financial Director Floreal John Hargreaves, Director General Griffy S.A. (Division of Embee Group, UAE) N. Sankar, General Manager Sylvia Rajerisoto, Shipping/Logistics Director Madagascar Sales S.A. (Division of Hong Kong Sales (Knitwear) Limited, Hong Kong) Kwan-Lo Chow, Director General S. T. Luk Tim, Director & Deputy General Manager, Hong Kong Sales (Knitwear) Limited, Kowloon, Hong Kong 80 Nova Knits Madagascar S.A. Deng Ling, General Manager Managing Director SAMAF Nichad Djouma Lila, Manager Logistics Air France Cargo Eric Virzi-Laccania, Director Fret-Madagascar Air Mauritius Cargo Raymond Ramamonjisoa, Cargo Sales Agent Maersk Geert Van Overloop, Senior Owners Representative Maersk Sealand Patrick Ravoaraharison, Sales Department Maersk Logistics David Ware, General Manager Rogers International Distribution Services André Baya, Director General Lalaina Rasolomanana Société Générale de Surveillances (SGS) Guy Escarfail, Director General, Madagascar Société Auxiliaire Maritime de Madagascar (Auximad) Ratsimbazafy Manda, Assistant Marketing Director Additional Private Sector Representatives Femmes Entrepreneurs de Madagascar Lucile Rasoaeninoro, Chair FIVMPAMA (Association of Small & Medium Enterprises) Herintsalama A. Rajaonarivelo, President 81 Groupe Société Trading de l’Océan Indien (STOI) Tovonanahary A. Rabetsitonta, President/Director General J-R.Boulle Mining Earl V. Young, Senior Vice President and President, U.S.-Madagascar Business Council Donors & Projects U.S. Embassy to Madagascar Ambassador Wanda L. Nesbitt Robert Gianfranceschi, Political/Economic/Commercial Counselor U.S. Agency for International Development Steve Haykin, Mission Director Fidèle Rabemananjara World Bank Josiane V. Raveloarison, Senior Private Sector Development Specialist 82 E. LITERATURE REFERENCES Abernathy, Frederick H.; John T. Dunlop; Janice H. Hammond; and David Weil. (1999) A Stitch in Time: Lean Retailing and the Transformation of Manufacturing – Lessons from the Apparel and Textile Industries. New York: Oxford University Press. Action for Enterprise. (no date) SEPA website. http://www.actionforenterprise.org/mali.htm Aring, Monika. (2002) “Workforce Rapid Appraisal Profile (WRAP).” Prepared for USAID Global Workforce in Transition (GWIT) project. Columbus, OH: Center for Employment and Training (mimeo). 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