The past, present and future of inequity in Brazil Claudio de Moura Castro 1 Brazil has had a long history of inequality and education has a lot to do with it. The legacy of inequality comes from the colonial status in the past and the carry over from Iberian styles of colonization. This paper attempts to trace the roots of inequality, present the relevant numbers to measure it and, then, show what is being done to improve the situation. For the record, the entire discussion hinges on the inequitable inequality. Catholic, Jewish and Protestant schools prepare differently its students. The outcome will be different, but there is no inequity involved. As we look back at our history, Brazilian social and racial relations were tempered by a high degree of miscegenation and blurring of ethnic lines. In addition, the country escaped from bloody wars, both civil and against outside enemies. Peaceful solutions to social problems have been found, mostly by negotiation and other pacific means. One cannot take for granted these traits of Brazilian society. One cannot say either that they are altogether positive or negative. However, educational achievement has been the weakest link in Brazilian development. This paper claims that this is at the root of Brazilian inequality. The country inherited from Portugal a very backward system of education. Very slow progress was achieved throughout the centuries. Only in the last fifty years did progress pick up and education started catching up. Despite the outstanding progress, the present situation is not at all satisfactory. 1 O autor agradece sugestões úteis de Simon Schwartzman. Mas obviamente, continua responsável pelo que está dito no ensaio I. The origins The present chapter reviews the roots of inequality. It also notes that they are closely associated with educational inequality A. Historical roots Portugal colonized Brazil, not by building trading posts and manning them with a garrison. This happened in Africa or India. This was also the case with the UK in several African countries, where small enclaves of expatriates managed the colonies. The Portuguese promoted a significant migration to the territory, as was the case with the UK and the Netherlands in South Africa. For three centuries, Brazil was a colony of Portugal. Then, as a result of Napoleon’s wars, it became the head of the Portuguese Empire. Therefore, to a significant degree, the Portuguese inheritance is pervasive, with its positive and negative consequences. If Portugal gave Brazil a positive heritage in terms of tolerance and cohabitation of widely different cultures, the same cannot be said of its educational legacy. Colonial countries are often criticized for shortchanging their colonies in education. This is probably the case with Portugal. However, the main reason that the Portuguese gave very little education to Brazil was because they did not have much of it themselves. Therefore, Brazil inherited a very meager education system from Portugal and this has been one of the most serious problems in the country. For about four and a half centuries, Brazilian education kept more or less in line with the overall poverty of the country. During the spirited economic growth that took place during the XXth century, education picked up, but was not able to keep up with the economy. As a result, the country remained far more backward in education than would correspond to its per capita income. The rhythm of education expansion accelerated in the second part of the XXth century. In fact, it became extremely fast in the last decade. But there was too much catching up to be done in too little time. Brazilian economy has grown faster than any other country in the world during the XXth century. Urbanization has been extremely fast, perhaps one of the fastest in the world. The creation of huge cities brought all the corresponding tensions. The rich have become richer and more numerous, no question about it. While the situation of the poor keeps improving – as measured by all conventional indicators of well being – the distance has not been significantly reduced. From a backward and contained society, it has become a dynamic and turbulent nation, with a serious social gap – ‘social debt’ as it has been called. Could better schools mitigate the disruption and anomie generated by such fast urbanization? Could they help in generating the economic growth that is indispensable to improve the well-being of all? B. Inept education bureaucracy It is naïve to blame bureaucracy for all the evils of education. It must exist and, in modern societies, the need for a substantial bureaucracy cannot be denied. The issue is whether the country is being well served by its bureaucracy. Brazilian bureaucracy is a direct descendent of Iberian formalism. It still mixes the delivery of services with self-serving practices of civil servants and the spoils system. However, it is not a homogeneous system. Some segments are modern and efficient, as is the case of the bureaucracies dealing with post-graduate education and science. In contrast, primary and secondary school systems, particularly at the local level, can be quite traditional, inefficient and infiltrated by politics. The critical issue at hand is the direct association between the quality of the public bureaucracy and the educational achievements of the corresponding level. Post-graduate education has always had the best and the most efficient bureaucracy, both in the Ministry of Education and in the independent agencies that fund research. Higher education suffers from a heavy and ponderous bureaucracy. But some branches within it move relatively well. In contrast, for a long number of years, the bureaucracies dealing with primary and secondary education have been chronically weak – at federal, state and local level. They are ideologically more naïve, less informed about the world and implementation limps along, at a snail’s pace. A country that needs desperately to improve the quality of primary education is not well served by the corresponding Federal bureaucracy. Worse, at the local level, the bureaucratic machinery tends to be even more inefficient and plagued by political maneuvering and spoil politics. The best intentions to reduce inequality stumble against immovable and incompetent administrative machinery. C. Education expansion is bad for those who have been left out We always think of education as a good thing and this paper follows the same line. Yet, there are some perverse aspects of education expansion. In a traditional society, smart and hardworking individuals can learn a trade, open a business and move up in society, even with very modest levels of education. However, modernity progressively closes the doors to those who do not have considerable levels of education, even if all they want is to perform very modest occupations. Brazilian economy has gone much beyond this basic level. Its sophistication has dramatically increased and schooling levels have responded. A respectable segment of the economy is modern and highly competitive, both in manufacturing and agro-business. One immediate consequence of modernity is that access to just about every job has now filters for education. The most desirable jobs require much education. Nevertheless, even those that hardly require any education at all, such as garbage collection, have selection processes where education is a requirement. Granted that such schooling requirements are silly or absurd, the fact of the matter is that they exist and are pervasive. The consequence is that individual progress without formal schooling becomes ever more difficult. Therefore, those that cannot succeed inside schools are automatically losers outside of it, particularly in the labor market. We all know that the correlation between schooling level and income is quite strong. Given those reasons, the most critical determinant of success and failure in the world of work is school performance. Understanding the filters that exist inside schools preventing many from moving ahead is critical to understand inequality – and to develop the requisite policies. II. The face of inequality This chapter examines the trajectory of Brazilian education, with emphasis on those aspects that portray the past and present inequalities. A. Historical trajectory By any standards, Brazil is a late bloomer in matters of education. Nevertheless, the recent transformations are nothing short of spectacular. By early XXth century, only about 10% of the primary education cohort was attending school. By the middle of the century, about half were going to school. At the turn of the century, 97% of the 7-14 age bracket were attending school. Even more remarkable, enrollment in secondary education has trebled in the last ten years. Virtual universalization of 7-14 years cohort was a momentous achievement, belated, as it might have been. It is, by far, the most dramatic tool in reducing inequity. However, the job is far from done. Only 84% of the students conclude the forth grade and 57% conclude the eight years of elementary education. At the end of secondary education, only 37% of the cohort gets its diploma. The most perverse aspect of this pruning down of the school cohort is its selective nature. Among the 20% poorest students, their presence in school falls from 95% in the 7-14 age bracket to 73% in the 15-17 bracket and to 28% for those between 18 and 24. By contrast, the proportion of the 20% highest-income group remains constant thorough all age levels. In other words, the rich move up the education ladder, with hardly any casualties, while almost three fourths of the the poor get stuck and leave school. Brazil practically did not have public schools of any level in the XIX century, except for a few higher education institutions. In fact, a small number of Medical, Engineering and Law schools were created during the early XIXth century, but expansion afterwards was very slow. It was only during the late XXth century that systems of public schools expanded. However, afterwards it did so very fast indeed. From close to nothing, enrollment now approach 100% of the cohort, at primary level. Gross enrollment in secondary education corresponds to two thirds of the cohort (even though too many students are overage). In contrast to the fast expansion of public education at the elementary and secondary level, in the last decades, public higher education slowed down. In fact, it almost stopped growing. The gap in higher education was picked up by the private sector. It then expanded much faster than the public, capturing now 70% of enrollment. Notice that this is real private sector, with no public subsidies of any significance. Students pay full cost for their education and a growing proportion of the institutions declare their profit motive. To sum up, Brazilian backwardness in education comes from the past. Historic comparisons with Europe show an enormous gap. However, even compared to countries such as Argentina and Uruguay, the difference was surprisingly large, since these countries started moving towards universal schooling by mid XIXth century. Brazil was almost one century behind. Little changed, until World War II. Nevertheless, what came afterwards was quite impressive. In less than half a century, Brazil is catching up very fast to the best performers in the region (Uruguay, Argentina and Chile). As much as Brazilians should rejoice for such a spectacular performance, its rough edges are there to be seen. Rapid expansion meant lots of errors, waste and qui pro quos. Could they have been avoided? Is it possible to grow that fast and avoid tripping and falling every now and then? B. The quality gap While the public education system was small, quality tended to be at least reasonable. Relatively few enrolled and those were predominantly from middle-class background. Most schools were located in relatively prosperous cities and had decent teachers. In fact, teaching was the only socially-accepted profession for young ladies of good extraction. The explosive growth during the second part of the XXth century broke down this traditional and small system. There was relatively little attention given to quality of basic education during the expansion that followed – all eyes were glued to the construction of a network of high-profile universities. Not surprisingly, it seems that quality of basic education went down precipitously, even though hard data on that is not available. While education became vastly less elitist, what was offered to the new clienteles became sorely deficient. Contrasting with the previous decrease in quality, the extraordinary expansion in enrollment at all levels that took place in the nineties happened with little or no degradation in quality. This can be considered as one of the most outstanding achievements of the period, as education could have gotten much worse. In fact, the present author predicted further deterioration of quality. From the early nineties on, a reliable measure of school achievement became available, SAEB. This is a large sample survey that covers the fourth, the eight and the last year of secondary education. According to the data, collected every two years, quality remained essentially constant. At the same time that this was a major feat, one must understand that the quality levels that remained constant are unacceptably low. At the end of fourth grade, less than half of the students are fully literate. In principle, almost all students should be literate at the end of first grade. According to PISA results, Brazilians perform around four years behind their OECD counterparts. In fact, Brazil was the worst performer in the 2001 PISA test. C. The educational framework As a federated country, Brazil has a central authority, 27 relatively independent states and around 5500 municipalities, also quite independent. The division or responsibilities is rather complex. The Federal Ministry of Education operates a network of public universities and has a loose jurisdiction over the local systems. It also allocates funds to supplement local expenditures. In addition, it has the official mandate to set educational policies, to evaluate students and schools as well as to collect and analyze education statistics. Each state has its own independent Secretary of Education, with its own teachers, management and tax collection. Increasingly, states operate only secondary schools but many still have elementary schools under their direct operation. Municipalities also have their own Secretaries of Education and the corresponding tax collection. They predominantly operate elementary school. Curricula are national, as well as the rules on number of hours of class per year and related legislation. But the operation is local, as well as setting salaries and careers for teachers. To complicate matters further, some municipalities and states have secondary schools and a few states have higher education institutions. For instance, the premier university in Brazil, the University of São Paulo, is a state institution. Around 15% of primary and secondary students attend private schools. Close to 70% of the higher education students attend private colleges and universities. As mentioned, there are no public subsidies for private education. Students must pay the full cost of their education. Private primary and secondary schools are considerably better than their public counterparts. At the higher education level, there is a reverse situation. Public universities have high costs and private colleges are much less expensive, around one third of what costs public universities. As shown by a test given at the end of the undergraduate years, the very best programs are predominantly public. However, for the run-of-the-mill programs that predominate, let us say, two thirds of the total, the difference in quality between public and private is minor, if it at all exists. From an equity perspective, the system is quite unfair. The more affluent students attend private schools, at the elementary and secondary level. The remaining 85% attend public schools. When comes time to enter higher education, those who could afford the private schools are better prepared for the examinations. They capture more than half of the places in public universities, even though they add up to 15% of secondary graduates. In other words, those that could afford a private education are over three and a half times overrepresented in tuition-free public universities. Looking at it from a public subsidy point of view, the university students – from the middle classes - get a free education that is worth over ten times more (per year) than what it costs to offer one year of primary or secondary education. D. Premature emphasis on higher education As mentioned before, it took four and a half centuries for Brazilian education to wake up. Before that, it lingered, being late in all its dimensions, even compared to the poorer neighboring countries. Basic education finally started growing, from the fifties on. However, Brazil decided that it had to develop a network of public universities, doing research and offering post-graduate courses, in order to prepare more teachers and leaders for future growth. At that time, the role of well-prepared leaderships was stressed, justifying a very heavy investment in creating, at least, one federal university in each state capital. Even though the implementation of education plans has had a long tradition of remaining in the paper, in the case of higher education, the performance of the Ministry of Education was exemplary. Lavish campuses were built and thousands of the brightest students were sent abroad for masters and doctorates. Upon their return, beginning in the seventies, over one thousand graduate programs were launched. The plans were so successful that the growth and maturation of higher education created a grave imbalance between levels. Brazil implemented a serious network of public universities, including some of excellent quality, long before much more than half of the corresponding age cohort was in primary schools. One immediate result was that there were not enough students to allow higher education enrollment to grow much. For around two decades, enrollment in public universities almost stagnated. Notice that during the late eighties, more than 60% of the high school graduates entered higher education. This is higher than just about anywhere in the world. There was a foregone opportunity to build the education system from the bottom up. Instead of starting by the creation of a solid primary school, them moving up to the other levels, Brazil put almost all its efforts on higher and post-graduate education. This policy created a two-pronged equity issue. The first is the decision to spend with a level of education to which only the more affluent families had access - because they were the ones that finished secondary. The second problem was not focusing on the initial levels of education where the foundations of a more equitable system is built. Only in the nineties did this quantitative imbalance between an overgrown higher education and a narrow elementary education disappeared. But, as mentioned, it vanished only in the quantitative dimension. Quality is still sorely lacking. E. Gender is indeed an issue - for boys Gender equalization has been one of the social themes of the XXth century. After centuries of imbalance, the richer countries changed gears, giving women greater political rights and more education. Progressively, the gender differences in education dwindled and disappeared – in most cases. Brazil has taken a similar route, but long before it reached the levels of education and economic development of industrial countries. Traditionally, the gender differences were also large, as expected. The great education revolution happened in Brazil too late, during the second part of the XXth century. This was a period of very fast economic growth. During the entire period, urbanization and modernization were also proceeding at a fast clip. Since the country was very late, it did not follow the European pattern. Europeans first developed education systems for boys, while girls lagged behind. Only later, did girls caught up. Brazil remained backward for a long time. In those periods, women were certainly way behind men in education. But above all, both sexes were behind. When finally education caught on, it brought on board both boys and girls. Given the accelerated growth in enrollment, the gender gap was quickly eliminated. It is instructive to notice that there was no conscious effort to equalize gender enrollment or any other spelled-out policy. Feminist were not particularly powerful. Equalization just happened, spontaneously. But this spontaneous push for women’s education did not stop at equality. Women now have more schooling than men, at all levels, except doctorate. The difference of ten percentage points at the end of secondary is worrisome, as this imbalance can have destabilizing effects on society. As happened in the West Indies, there may be room for affirmative action on behalf of boys, particularly at the secondary level. F. The problem is being black or being poor? At the time of discovery, the local Indians were nomadic. The booming sugar business needed manpower. To supply the plantations and sugar mills, successive attempts were made to enslave the Indians for that purpose. However, it did not work. Their nomadic temperament made the task close to impossible. That led the Portuguese to bring African slaves to work in the sugar cane plantations. Later on, they were brought to the gold mines in the State of Minas Gerais. In the second part of the XIXth century they became indispensable in the coffee plantations. Their number constituted one third of the Brazilian population in 1850. However, slave trade became increasingly frowned upon, during the XIXth century. For reasons that probably involved a lot more than human rights, Britain took military action against the slave trade in the Atlantic Ocean. Echoes of that in Brazil were, first of all, a scarcity of newly imported slaves. But the opposition to slavery, progressively, took root, on grounds of human rights. Legislation restricted the use of slaves, freed all the sons of slaves and facilitated schemes to make them free. Finally, in 1888, slavery was totally abolished. By contrast to the United States, this did not create much of a shake up in society or in the economy. However, hardly anything was done to support the recently freed slaves. And even less was offered in terms of education. After all, education was not being offered to the poor White either. Therefore, a little more than one century ago millions of slaves were set free but without an education. They were the poorest segment of society – that is self-evident. And they were not given the tools to overcome this situation in the years ahead. Therefore, it is not a surprise to find that the Blacks, who were the former slaves, remained predominantly among the poorest groups of society. Correspondingly, their education level, on average, remained quite low. This has happened elsewhere, including the United States. From the point of view of the present discussion, what matters is how many generations it would take to bring this group on par with society. In fact, it is taking a long time indeed. Simple comparisons between Blacks and non-Blacks show, on average, very significant differences. Illiteracy rates – which heavily reflect the past – were 2.5 higher for Blacks in 1992. Today the difference is double. Average number of years of study reached two years in 2004. Such differences must have been caused for many reasons. In the United States, Jim Crow laws endorsed several forms of discrimination. They made it much harder for the Blacks to catch up. Brazil never had laws that discriminated against blacks. In fact, the official ideology was one of integration and several laws made discrimination a serious offense. However, Brazilian education has been, throughout history, very weak, if it at all existed. And surely, it short-changed the poor and those who lived far from the capitals. Since the Blacks started very poor, they had little access to education. The lack of schools and, worse, the lack of good schools suggests a very critical question, from the point of view of racial inequity: Are the chances of school success for a poor Black worse than those of a poor White? Several researchers have struggled with this question in the recent past. There are honest attempts to shed light on the issue, in the middle of the emotional overtones of some advocacy groups. Researchers introduced more strict statistical controls, isolating the effects of parents’ education, economic conditions and geography. The results are quite suggestive. In terms of explained variance, being poor is much more harmful than being Black. In other words, the sons of poor White are almost as bad off as the poor Blacks. This much, we know for sure. The question that remains is the size of this ‘almost’. Studies show that there is still a difference. How much should we make of it? To what extent it results from the impact of other socio-economic variables not included in the analysis? To what extent is it the result of discrimination? To what extent is it ‘self-discrimination’ or low self-esteem? These questions remain controversial. However, there is now a powerful factor at play. The acceleration in school enrollment in the last few decades brings a significant change in the situation of Blacks. Since primary schooling has become universal, at this level, the education distance between blacks and whites has practically disappeared. In fact, Blacks and Whites differ little today in their enrollment from 7 to 14, 93% versus 96%.This is a significant advance, considering that it was 13 percentage points in 1992. But this process is only at the beginning, as the racial difference in higher levels remains significant. G. Where are the Indians? There are two different ways of looking at the Brazilian Indians. There are Indians living in tribes, mostly in remote areas. And there are those Brazilians with Indian blood. The disproportion in the numbers is overwhelming. Indigenous populations comprise 225 groups, speaking 180 languages. The number of Indians still in tribal life or closely associated with their original nations has been estimated at 600 thousand. Of these, 480 thousand live in reservations – comprising 108 millions hectares (12.7% of Brazilian territory). Compared with the Brazilian population of 180 million, they correspond to a very small proportion. It is illustrative to compare it with Chile where almost ten per cent of the population is Indian. But there are the other ‘Indians’. In the XVIIth century, the area today corresponding to the State of Pernambuco was donated to a man by the name Cavalcanti Albuquerque. He subsequently married the daughter of the local Indian chief. Therefore, all his descendents are part Portuguese, part Indian. Such mixing of Indians and Portuguese immigrants had begun before and continued afterwards. A safe generalization is that almost all the population of the Northeast has a significant amount of Indian blood. Therefore, any affirmative action to benefit Indians, defined as someone with Indian blood, would leave out very few of the fifty million inhabitant of the Brazilian Northeast. By a criterion of blood, the entire elite of the region would be entitled to whatever benefits were offered to Indians. If that were not enough, in this region of the country, even the Indians living in reservations and protected by a legal statute have significant White blood. Therefore, any policy having to do with Indians would become nonsensical unless it is focused only on those groups that retain their cultural identity and tribal life. The whole issue is complicated and defies simple answers. Some Indian tribes hardly retain their original languages and customs. Others remain ferocious and beyond the reach of civilization. In between, all possibilities occur. A significant number of tribes are at the frontier of what generously can be called ‘civilization’. These are wild and, to some extent, lawless regions. There is much fighting for land and the White groups are a motley group of bandits, adventurers and settlers. The Indians are certainly not winning those disputes. For a long time, the size of the tribes was shrinking. Prostitution and alcoholism were serious problems. In recent years, the tribal population stabilized and is now growing again. Child mortality went down from 75 per thousand to around 50, between 2000 and 2005. These are considered a major achievements of policies dealing the Indians. Despite being heavily criticized by many, FUNAI, the agency in charge of Indian Affairs, has tried very hard to improve the lot of the Indian tribes they assist. From what we can gather from scattered evidence, it provides the Indians with decent schooling. In the last few years, school begins in the native language and progressively changes into Portuguese. It seems that those Indians assisted by FUNAI schools get a better education than the frontier non-Indian children who attend regular public schools. From a quantitative point of view, Indians are a very small part of the Brazilian population. To sum up, we can tentatively say that in many reservations, Indians are being fairly well looked after and their schools are quite reasonable. Of course, that is not to say that the Indian problem has been solved. Those that are close to civilization remain very poor and, to some extent, discriminated by the other local poor. Worse, both they and the non-Indian poor are somewhat beyond the reach of the social programs that today benefit almost all Brazilians. III. Present policies to fight inequity As will become apparent along the next several paragraphs, much effort is focused on the reduction of educational inequalities. Some interventions are quite successful and tackle the issue directly. This is the case with the universalization of elementary education – already mentioned - and FUNDEF. Others either are less central or have shortcomings in their implementation. A. Basic education for all By far, the most potent weaponry against inequity of all origins is a good and universal system of basic education. This, as we all know, is what is taking longer for the country to achieve. In fact, Brazil lagged behind even countries that today are amongst the poorest in the region, like Paraguay and Bolivia. Stock statistics, such as average schooling, literacy rates and proportion of the population with this or that level of education still show Brazil behind those countries, since they reflect what was not done in education more than half a century ago. It is to the credit of the present generation that this situation has been reversed in the last two decades. In all flow statistics, Brazil is approaching Argentina, Chile and Uruguay, the educationally more advanced countries in the region. As mentioned before, at the turn of the millennium, around 97% of the 7-15 year cohort was attending school. This is a very major achievement. It means that, in quantitative terms, poor and rich, black and white are still in school, by the time they reach 15. There is no better road to reduce inequality. It took much too long to get there, but one cannot take for granted this major landmark. Surely, there is much to do ahead. Quality is appalling and the schools that cater to the poor and to remote areas are much weaker. There is a long way to go, in order to reduce the differences in school performance between different groups in society. Not only that but, at higher levels of education, the differences between social classes persist. At present, less than two thirds of the age cohort finishes the eight years of primary school. The dropouts come predominantly from poorer families. As could have been easily predicted, a significantly smaller share of the cohort finishes secondary education. At the threshold of higher education, the pruning down continues. Gross enrollment in higher education is around 20% and net enrollment is 10%. This huge difference can have two interpretations. One can say that the system is so bad that when students get to higher education they are already adults, beyond the official ages. But one can also say that the system now allows another previous generation to have a second chance to enroll in higher education. Depending on ideological persuasion, one or the other explanation is chosen. Nevertheless, these numbers are immensely better than those of just a decade ago. The path to reduce inequality at higher levels is the same observed for primary education: schooling for all. As mentioned, the next step is quality improvement, a very hard task indeed. To sum up, no other alternative educational policy can replace this overall effort to improve coverage and quality. B. Fundef, a fund to reduce inequality in education expenditures FUNDEF (Fundo de Manutenção e Desenvolvimento do Ensino Fundamental e de Valorização do Magistério) turned out to be one of the most powerful tools to reduce the geographic inequality in education expenditures. It particularly benefited the poorest regions - states and municipalities. In simple terms, it created two rules. Localities that spend the constitutionally-mandated proportion of their budgets in education and do not reach a given threshold of per capita expenditures are entitled to receive from the fund what is needed to cover the difference. Municipalities that fail to spend the legal proportion must pay back to the fund the difference between what was spent and the legal requirements. Two thousand municipalities, responsible for 66% of municipal enrollments, benefited from the transfers. In the poor Northeast, expenditures increased by 89% and teacher salaries increased by 49%. Overall, FUNDEF created 153 thousand new jobs, mostly for teachers. In a country with a strong tradition of regressive public spending, FUNDEF is a brilliant exception. FUNDEF is circumscribed to elementary schools. The present government has prepared a similar project, encompassing pre-school, elementary and secondary education. Presented to Congress and Senate, it was well received. At present, final approval of the law is pending and the rules to split the funds between levels are still unclear. C. Bolsa-escola - cash transfers for staying in school Brazil was one of the first, if not the first country to experiment with transfers to families, conditioned that they keep their children at school. In Portuguese, these programs are called Bolsa-Familia (that translates as ‘Family-Scholarships’). The program consists in cash allowances to poor families, as long as they keep their children enrolled in school, with regular attendance and obtaining acceptable grades. In some cases, programs include the creation of a savings account for the family - which only becomes available if the child completes the corresponding educational cycle. Such programs started in Brasilia, the capital, and spread around. In the late nineties, a Federal version was launched. At the transition to the millennium around 8 million students were attending such programs. In addition, several Latin American countries adopted similar schemes, including Argentina. The World Bank and the IDB took a serious interest in them. There are two ways to look at them. But first of all, we have to consider that these are expensive programs. Per student costs can be as high as the per student costs of public education. In that sense, it doubles what it costs to maintain a student. This was the case with the earlier versions of the program in Brasilia. If an education authority has a large chunk of money, earmarked for education, it is very likely that such stipends are not the best way to spend it. Public schools operate at a bare minimum, lacking often the most indispensable supplies and equipment. The large sums that need to be mobilized to create significant Bolsa-Escola programs could produce a revolution in the physical look of classrooms. In order to be justified, when compared to other forms of allocation, one would have to demonstrate that it generates massive reduction in dropout rates. Unfortunately, the evidence for such reductions in attendance is far from adequate or convincing. To start with, we just do not know how many of those who receive the stipend would have dropped out if it did not exist. The best we can say is that, in some cases, there may be some association between staying in school and getting the stipend. But the numbers are less than convincing. Consider that between the ages of 8 and 13 close to 100% of the youth attend schools, regardless of such Bolsa-Escola. Be that as it may, there are other ways at looking at the program that make it far more attractive. In a poor and inequitable country, such as Brazil, the government is always looking for better ways to support families directly. Anchoring a cash transfer program to public schools is a very efficient way to define and control the clientele that benefits from it. In other words, the government could simply to set up transfer mechanisms for the parents of poor children. These programs would compare well with other alternatives transfer options. But if, in addition to having a foolproof basis for transfers, the program could create incentives for children to remain in school, so much the better. Therefore, as a program to improve schools and attendance, the evidence in favor of Bolsa Escola is quite thin. However, as a money-transfer program that, in addition to its intrinsic benefits, it helps reduce dropping out, then it may become a much more desirable social program. D. Picking the talented When public schools covered only a small fraction of the corresponding cohort, there were several excellent public schools. After all, since they were few, the country could well afford their costs. In addition, they were predominantly frequented by the middle and upper classes. Nevertheless, a small number of talented or lucky children from modest or outright poor extraction attended them. Massive expansion in public education was achieved at the cost of eroding the quality and prestige of such excellent schools. Education for all meant mediocre public education for all. While the chances of attending school for the children from poor families increased manifold, the high quality alternatives for them shrunk precipitously. Quality education became largely concentrated in the private schools. Since private schools in Brazil get practically no public subsidies (other than modest tax benefits), they operate on a strict pay-to-attend basis. Very few scholarships for the poor are ever offered. Programs to remedy this situation remained on a stalemate for decades. Curiously, the left seems partly responsible for this state of affairs. Teacher Unions and education gurus, from the eighties on, opposed achievement testing. Yet, they are an almost indispensable tool to pick the most talented in public schools. Worse, the educational left – solidly installed in the education administrations - strongly opposed the idea of picking the talented poor and putting them in better schools. The prevailing ideology was subsumed as ‘mainstreaming’ and, in practice, it meant just keeping bright student in the same environment that lacks the stimulation they need to bloom. In the last several years, the situation begins to change, thanks to private philanthropy, rather than government action. Two major business leaders created programs to select the most talented students in public schools and place them in top private institutions (Bom Aluno and ISMART programs). In addition, Embraer, the leading Brazilian aeronautical manufacturer, paired with the Pitágoras school system to create a model high school. This institution can only be attended by graduates of the public schooling system. Every year, it offers 200 places for public-school graduates, screened through competitive examinations. While creating a school for the gifted was not the original goal, a 27:1 selection rate ensures that the chosen few are quite talented. While it is premature to pass a definite judgment on these programs, the initial results seem particularly encouraging. Perhaps, as a most welcome indirect consequence of the thinking and discussions that surfaced with such initiatives, the very idea of picking the talented and putting them in better institutions is becoming more acceptable. Not only that, but also some states are exhumating the old idea of having a few high quality public schools, with competitive tests to enroll. At least, Sergipe and Pernambuco are moving in this direction. It is instructive to notice that private business is supporting the movement, in the case of Pernambuco. Overall, this entire discussion refers to the fate of a few thousand students, in a school population of over forty million. Hence, the issue is not at the core of the massive problem of equity. However, the matter is not so simple. To start with, in any population, the truly gifted youth are few. Considering the lack of good pre-schools and primary education, by the time the selection takes place, too many will have already been victims of the system. In that respect, the number of places in such programs is not so small, compared to the population of gifted children from poor origins. Another aspect of the issue is the fact that the existence of such programs has a symbolic meaning for the poor. It means knowing that if they do well in public schools, they have a serious chance to attend the very best private schools in the country. This is no minor incentive. E. Programs to facilitate access to higher education From what we know, the proportion of poor children attending higher education seems to have changed very little indeed in the last several decades. To be sure, the data are quite inadequate for such comparisons. Given the rapid increase in the average schooling of the population, in twenty years, the mean schooling of fathers of higher education students increases by several years (and by a different number of years, depending on where we choose to measure). If today’s students come from families with bettereducated parents, we cannot conclude that higher education is becoming even more elitist. Occupational status is a more stable indicator. However, it is rarely defined the same way in the statistics that would shed light on the social evolution of enrollment. Family income is an even greater nightmare, due to uncontrollable under-reporting and to statistical problems to account for inflation. Despite the limitations in available data, it seems that the presence of poorer children in higher education stagnated. This happened, despite massive growth in a higher education system that enrolled 107,000 in 1962 and reached around 4.5 million last year. Indeed, the impression we derive from the data is that not much has changed. Enrollment growth came, initially, from the enrollment of women (who are now considerably more numerous than men) and, increasingly, from families that are just a little bit poorer than those that formerly provided higher education students. In non-rigorous parlance, the lower end of the lower middle class is the growing segment of higher education. In fact, with the exhilarating growth in secondary enrollment, graduations are not too far from half of the corresponding age cohort. This is a share of the population far bigger than the one third or one fourth considered to be ‘middle-class’. Therefore, the poor but not the very poor are increasingly coming to the threshold of higher education. The reason their proportion does not seem to be increasing faster is quite clear. Public universities do not charge tuition, even though they have costs roughly equivalent to those of OECD countries. Therefore, the betterprepared youth from the higher levels of society fiercely compete to ensure a place there. In contrast, private education is fully funded by students who pay fees to attend. Therefore, the poor have few options. They can compete for the relatively small number of vacancies in the less desirable and competitive careers in public universities. Or they can pay the tuition in the less expensive private institutions. Prestigious careers in public universities are twice closed to the poorer segments of society, even though they do not charge tuition. First, since the poor attended public schools of doubtful quality, they cannot compete well in the entrance examinations - that can have as many as 30 candidates for each vacancy. Secondly, they must work, which is incompatible with full time university programs. Private higher education institutions are the alternative for the vast majority of those who are barely above the threshold of being able to pay the tuition. The fact of the matter is that most of the courses are offered during the evenings. Despite the vast growth in enrollment, it seems reasonable to say that there is a very significant number of potential candidates to higher education that are barred, due to their inability to afford the tuition (on the average, 200 US$ per month). The above discussion provides the rationale for programs that facilitate access to higher education by poorer students. This is an issue that has become more public and more visible in the last five years. Student loans Traditionally, the government has operated a student-loan program (FIES) for several years. It was plagued by low repayment and bureaucratic red tape, but seems to have improved in the last several years. The major problem is that it has remained stagnant for a long time, reaching no more than about 15% of the enrollment in higher education. Several private higher education institutions have their own student-loan schemes. But the interests are too high and their coverage is quite modest. Non-profit institutions offering student loan exist, for a long time. A case in point is APLUB, from Rio Grande do Sul. In very recent years, a for-profit institution was created, to offer student loans at reasonable costs. It is too early to evaluate this initiative. PROUNI – tuition waivers in exchange for taxes PROUNI, is a program that essentially gives tax exemptions to private colleges, in exchange for tuition waivers to poorer students. It was quite an unexpected move from a left-leaning government to create a program to fund private education. The left did not really like it, but it chose not to protest too vehemently. Owners of private higher education liked the program but quibbled for a long time on the details of implementation. Finally, the program is in full swing and the first crop of students adds up to almost 150 thousand. The critics of the program – right and left – complained that it would bring down the quality of the student body. Entirely satisfactory evidence is still not available. However, numbers compiled by some colleges suggest that PROUNI students are just as prepared and, after admitted, perform just as well as the others. A major tool of the Ministry of Education to ensure quality intake in the program is the use of the ENEM test, a technically very competent examination targeted to the end of secondary education. Overall, the program is quite a success. Even some of the most acid critics of the present government believe that it is the most successful initiative implemented in the last three years. Quotas for students from public schools While PROUNI is showing solid results, the idea of quotas for minorities and students from public schools remains shrouded in controversies and ambiguities. Let us start with the simpler quotas for student from public schools – that are much easier to implement. Equity is served by any fair mechanism that increases the chances of the poorer students (from public schools) to attend public universities. However, there is more to the issue than the mere fact that equity improves. First and above all, there is a political dimension to the choice of a quota program at the threshold of higher education. This level commands many decibels. It is visible and belligerent, bringing much public attention to government policies. Yet, by the time the quota mechanisms could take action, around four out of five poorer students have already been expelled from the education system. Therefore, it is affirmative action for a small fraction of the target population. Many observers, including the present author, have argued that the most drastic and profound form of affirmative action to the poor would be to improve the quality of basic education. Whatever the country offers at higher levels, it is no more than palliative action, unable to reduce inequity in the system. The next issue is excellence and meritocracy. All serious higher education systems have these two principles as their pillars. A quota system that militates against them defeats the classic purposes of a university. Therefore, there is a critical question to ask: are the beneficiaries of the quotas chosen in a way that preserves meritocracy and prevents quality from falling? Here, what matters are the mechanics of implementation. Are the formulae to choose students such that one can have equity, meritocracy and excellence? The Ministry of Education proposed a simple mechanism of reserving 50% of the places to students from public schools. At least one estimate of possible deterioration of academic standards with such mechanism was produced. Under some plausible scenarios, the University of São Paulo estimated that the quality in of its medicine and law courses would precipitously fall. However, there are unsubstantiated claims in the opposite direction. The confusion worsened, due to the lack of clarity on whether the quotas would be for each career within the university or for the aggregate enrollment. The whole question remains murky. Parallel to these acrid arguments, the University of Campinas and, later, the University of São Paulo, adopted a much more attractive approach. Under this scheme, students from public schools are given a 30 point bonus in the written examination that determines who enters the university. That bonus brings in students from public schools that were close to the cutting point between being accepted and being rejected. Previous research had shown that poorer students with approximately similar scores at the entrance examination perform at least as well as the others. After all, they are almost winners in the examinations and clear winners in the sense that they overcame their lower socio-economic status. Even more interesting is the program adopted by the University of Santa Maria, in the extreme south of the country. Instead of lowering the bar, the University created a large program to support public high schools in their vicinity. The program beefs up the education offered in these schools and prepares their students to compete better in the same examinations. As a result, two thirds of Santa Maria students come from public schools, a number that is much higher than that of any public university in Brazil. An encouraging sign is a modification in the revised proposal for a higher education reform law submitted to Congress by the Ministry of Education. Contrary to previous versions, it backs up from mentioning mechanisms and numbers, where it refers to quotas. Instead, it leaves open the forms by which public universities ought to increase their intake of students from public schools. Quotas for Blacks and Indigenous populations Within the quotas for public education students, the Ministry of Education also proposed quotas for the Blacks and the Indians. In other words, the ethnic component is added to the thorny issues of quotas. There are two issues at stake. The first is procedural: How to determine who is Black or Indian? According to official statistics, around 5% of the Brazilians are supposed to be from pure Black stock, displaying all the visual features of their purely African ancestry. Around half of the Brazilian population is visually White or Caucasian. The remaining forty percent is supposed to be mixed, more often than not, European with Black or Indian. Recent DNA research messes up such distributions. Hardly any Brazilians are a ‘pure stock’, whatever that means. In addition, the match between DNA results and visual aspects is not necessarily obvious. Caucasianlooking individuals turn out to have Black blood and vice-versa. If the country were to use DNA to implement racial quotas, it would create an immense confusion. Hence, a racial quota would have to consider visual aspects or ancestry. The former is the standard Brazilian practice. Whoever looks White, is White. And vice-versa. This has been the Brazilian way of dealing with race for centuries. But who is to look and decide? Where is the borderline? The University of Brasilia requires a picture of the candidate, to check on whether the declared race matches what appears in the photo. This has created strong reactions from many sides, but the university is adamant on that. The official policy is to accept self-identification. Whoever classifies him or herself as Black is Black. No questions asked. Initial implementation of this policy has shown some abuse, as denounced by the press. The legal nightmare created by individuals disputing racial identification could suffocate the legal system. Unavoidably, the racial quotas are creating much uneasiness in Brazilian society. Not that this discussion is bad, in itself. But as conducted, we do not know whether the outcome will be positive overall. One very thorny aspect of the issue is that it may have a tendency to polarize the races, something that Brazilian society had wisely avoided. Some qualified observers seem to believe that Brazil could achieve the same or better levels of racial equity without destroying the peaceful cohabitation and the true melting-pot nature of Brazilian ethical relations. Quite worrisome is the tendency to borrow the American definition of Black as someone who has any amount of Black blood. Politically, it has the consequence of increasing the proportion of Blacks from 10% to half of the population. But how can we consider half of the population a minority? The overarching concern of many qualified observers is that quibbling and disputing on who is what color at the doors of higher education may have a very deleterious impact on race relations. It is too early to know, but there are enough reasons to worry. F. Conquering spatial inequity Brazil has more than seven million square kilometers of surface, being larger than the United States in continuous territory. While this enormous space offers a boundless potential, providing higher education outside the main cities has been an overwhelming challenge. In the sixties, the federal network of public universities greatly expanded. In every Brazilian state, at least one federal university was created. This was an outstanding jump ahead, considering what was available in the past. The downside is that the country was left with a network of higher education institutions that only covered the capitals of the states, in a country where this could mean that the closest university could be thousands of kilometers away. The federal system operates with very high per student costs and was unable to expand further, in order to move beyond the state capitals. Instead, the private sector took over, moving away from the capitals, in order to tap a virgin market. This move begun about two decades ago. Today, there is a total of about two thousand institutions of higher education, a significant proportion being away from the capitals. Therefore, reducing geographical inequity began with the initiative of the federal government to put one university in each capital. But it was up to the private sector to move to smaller and more distant towns. In the last few years, another important step is being taken to further reduce spatial inequity: distance education. Since the early eighties, Brazil wanted to emulate the Open University and create a distance university. However, there was much resistance against it, from many sides. Twenty years later, the push for distance education is coming back, with a vengeance. In the last five years, the private sector has moved very swiftly to offer a significant variety of distance education programs. Some years ago, the Ministry of Education made a attempt that did not go very far. Its only significant offerings were focused on teacher training. In the very recent past, a major federal program has been launched, with ambitious goals. To sum up, after demurring for two decades, distance education is picking up and is growing very fast, lead by the private sector. Estimates of present enrollment show figures around 300 thousand students. It is interesting to notice that e-learning has remained small. The favored solution is televised classes, beamed by satellite. This seems to result from the Brazilian intimacy with television and the past successful experience of offering high quality primary and secondary education via TV. IV. Future scenarios This section offers some concluding remarks. It first comments on the overall tendency for international competition to become tougher. Any country that wants to do well and survive the harsher economic environment has to worry a lot about the level of skills of its workforce. Indeed, Southeast Asian competitors are eroding Brazilian competitiveness in traditional areas such as electronics, textiles and shoes. Toys are almost a lost case. The prosperous and growing automotive industry is already suffering from the increased strength of East Europe and China. Keeping this competition at bay is a matter of life and death for the Brazilian economy. In order to do that, it is almost unnecessary to stress the importance of higher order skills in the Brazilian labor force. Increasingly, it becomes difficult to compete with China and even more, with countries such as Vietnam, in products that depend on cheap labor. Social costs in Brazil are high and modern industry has jacked up hourly salaries. In addition, indirect costs - what is called ‘Brazil-Costs’ - increase further Brazilian products. An overvalued exchange rate may be a temporary condition, but it has already lasted for a few years. Therefore, Brazil needs a very well prepared work force, to retain its present market niches and conquer additional ones, in more sophisticated products. For high-end products, high-end skills are necessary - very few would disagree with that. Under such pressure to compete, what priority could be assigned to fight inequity? Actually, the response points to a virtuous circle. It is no longer an ‘either-or’ situation. There is no longer such a thing as an economy that is driven by high order skills while, at the same time, the bottom of the occupational ladder is semi-literate. In today’s economy, a large share of the highly productive and high tech firms are small. In addition, in the large firms, hierarchies are flatter. The shop-floor operators have to take many decisions that can be relatively complex. This all adds up to a workforce that needs considerably more skills, even at the bottom. Fighting inequity means improving the education achievements of those that are at the bottom. This is a meritorious target in itself. It ought to be done for reasons of social justice alone. However, under the present conditions, it is also an economic imperative. To improve efficiency and the competitiveness of the economy requires considerable, if not drastic, improvements in the education levels of those at the bottom. Therefore, the classic trade off, efficiency versus equity, seems to have vanished. Brazil needs both and the policies that lead to efficiency are not very different from the policies that improve equity. The true challenge now is not a priority stalemate but the hard issues of implementation. The real question is whether, after a long history of agonizingly slow development in education, at all levels, the country will be able to move much faster than before. A lot was achieved in the last decade. Will the process continue? The last four years were not encouraging, as enrollment growth slackened and not much happened to quality.