Emory IN - opencaselist08
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Varsity Index Varsity Affirmative .................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Emory EW ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Emory MT, HS, DS, & DiMu .................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Emory IN ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Emory FM ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15 GMU HO ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 18 Georgia CH .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 20 Georgia DM ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 22 Iowa BS ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 JCU ML ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 JMU LM .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 Kentucky CG ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 Kentucky AD ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 37 Mary Washington JR ............................................................................................................................................................................... 41 Richmond DF........................................................................................................................................................................................... 44 Richmond KL .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 46 Samford GR ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 50 Wake Forest MS ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 54 Wake Forest DM ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 57 Wake Forest SW ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 61 Wake Forest HR ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 64 Wayne State GP ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 70 Wayne State HK ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 74 Wayne State NP ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 77 Varsity Negative ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 80 Emory EW ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 81 Emory MT ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 83 Emory HS ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 85 Emory DS ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 86 Emory IN ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 87 Emory DiMu ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 91 Emory FM ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 92 GMU HO ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 93 Georgia CH .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 94 Georgia DM ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 96 Iowa BS ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 97 JMU LM .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 98 Kentucky CG ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 99 Kentucky AD ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 100 Mary Washington JR ............................................................................................................................................................................. 101 Richmond DF......................................................................................................................................................................................... 103 Richmond KL ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 104 Samford GR ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 105 Wake Forest MS .................................................................................................................................................................................... 107 Wake Forest DM .................................................................................................................................................................................... 108 Wake Forest SW .................................................................................................................................................................................... 111 Wake Forest HR .................................................................................................................................................................................... 112 Wayne State GP ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 113 Wayne State HK .................................................................................................................................................................................... 114 Wayne State NP ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 115 1 JV Index JV Affirmative ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 120 Clarion MT ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 121 Clarion DE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 126 GMU LP ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 127 John Carroll BC ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 129 Mary Washington HS ............................................................................................................................................................................ 130 Trinity OV ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 134 Army HX ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 136 Army CG ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 139 Army JL ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 142 Army CR ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 145 West Virginia SS ................................................................................................................................................................................... 148 JV Negative ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 149 Clarion MT & DE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 150 GMU LP ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 151 John Carroll BC ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 152 Mary Washington HS & GT .................................................................................................................................................................. 153 Trinity OV ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 154 Army HX, CG, JL, CR .......................................................................................................................................................................... 155 West Virginia SS ................................................................................................................................................................................... 156 2 Novice Index Novice Affirmative ................................................................................................................................................................................ 157 Augustana MP ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 158 Boston College MR ............................................................................................................................................................................... 160 Boston College SW ................................................................................................................................................................................ 161 Clarion SS & RZ .................................................................................................................................................................................... 162 Emory CL .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 166 Emory DS .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 166 Emory DM ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 166 George Mason BP .................................................................................................................................................................................. 167 George Mason KV ................................................................................................................................................................................. 169 George Mason BG ................................................................................................................................................................................. 169 George Mason HJ .................................................................................................................................................................................. 169 George Mason AG ................................................................................................................................................................................. 169 James Madison DH ................................................................................................................................................................................ 170 John Carroll LM .................................................................................................................................................................................... 172 John Carroll BB ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 173 Mary Washington KS ............................................................................................................................................................................ 174 Mary Washington AL ............................................................................................................................................................................ 174 Mary Washington AD ............................................................................................................................................................................ 174 Mary Washington GS ............................................................................................................................................................................ 174 Methodist EL & GK .............................................................................................................................................................................. 175 Miami DM ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 177 Richmond LS ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 178 Trinity PR, NP, HH, & BF ..................................................................................................................................................................... 179 Army AC ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 180 Army EM ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 180 Army KN ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 180 Wake Forest TW .................................................................................................................................................................................... 181 West Virginia LW .................................................................................................................................................................................. 184 Novice Negative .................................................................................................................................................................................... 185 Augustana MP ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 186 Boston College MR ............................................................................................................................................................................... 187 Boston College SW ................................................................................................................................................................................ 187 Clarion SS & RZ .................................................................................................................................................................................... 188 Emory DoSt, CL, DM ............................................................................................................................................................................ 189 George Mason BP, KV, BG, HJ, AG .................................................................................................................................................... 190 James Madison DH ................................................................................................................................................................................ 191 John Carroll LM, BB ............................................................................................................................................................................. 192 Mary Washington KS, AL, AD, GS ...................................................................................................................................................... 193 Methodist EL, GK ................................................................................................................................................................................. 194 Miami DM ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 195 Richmond LS ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 196 Trinity PR, NP, HH, BF ......................................................................................................................................................................... 197 Army AC ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 198 Army EM ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 198 Army KN ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 198 Wake Forest TW .................................................................................................................................................................................... 199 West Virginia LW .................................................................................................................................................................................. 200 3 Varsity Affirmative 4 Emory EW The plan: The United States federal government should increase its deployment of troops in Afghanistan on the condition that the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan demonstrates progress in its corruption reform efforts. Contention One: Corruption The Afghani government is a bastion of corruption an honest effort to curb corruption is necessary to prevent a domestic implosion and spur future reforms Motlagh, 2/18/07 (Jason, deputy foreign editor at United Press International in Washington, D.C., American Prospect, “Reform and Function” http://www.e-ariana.com/ariana/eariana.nsf/allArticles/AD6AF099CF8099648725728400735300?OpenDocument) With billions more American taxpayer dollars …like removing the dead leaves." Conditioning future assistance on these reforms is critical to ensuring that resources are being effectively used Wilder, 7/2007 (Andrew, Research Director for Politics and Policy at Tufts University, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, “Cops or Robbers, the Struggle to Reform the Afghan National Police” http://www.areu.org.af/) • The Ministry of Interior (MoI) is notoriously …government and the international community. They’ll say yes, Afghanistan has empirically responded to conditional troop deployments Goodhand and Sedra, 1/2007 (Jonathan and Mark, Senior Lecturer in Development Practice, University of London, Research Associate at the Bonn International Center for Conversion, International Peacekeeping, Vol.14, No.1, “Bribes or Bargains? Peace Conditionalities and ‘Post-Conflict’ Reconstruction in Afghanistan” p. 41) Other PRT-contributing states … Khan in April 2006.26 And Karzai wants troops Lal, 2006 (Rollie, Rand Corporation, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin__/GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf__) The U.S. interest in preventing … arenas in which to cooperate. Conditional assistance is uniquely better than unconditional assistance. The act of conditioning independently prevents conflict and instability even if reforms don’t solve Goodhand and Sedra, 1/2007 (Jonathan and Mark, Senior Lecturer in Development Practice, University of London, Research Associate at the Bonn International Center for Conversion, International Peacekeeping, Vol.14, No.1, “Bribes or Bargains? Peace Conditionalities and ‘Post-Conflict’ Reconstruction in Afghanistan” p. 41) Aid has political impacts … insulate themselves from the state. And conditions create the institutional framework that is necessary for pushing for future reforms Goodhand and Sedra, 1/2007 (Jonathan and Mark, Senior Lecturer in Development Practice, University of London, Research Associate at the Bonn International Center for Conversion, International Peacekeeping, Vol.14, No.1, “Bribes or Bargains? Peace Conditionalities and ‘Post-Conflict’ Reconstruction in Afghanistan” p. 41) The time frames set … and society more broadly. Contention Two: Instability 2007 will make or break Afghanistan, despite a growing insurgency, the US still has the ability to turn the tide Bergen, 2/15/07 (Peter, Schwartz Senior Fellow, New American Foundation, Peter Bergen's Afghanistan Testimony Before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, http://www.newamerica.net/publications/resources/2007/peter_bergens_afghanistan_testimony_before_the_house_committee_on_fore ign_affairs) 2007 will likely be a … and a more vibrant economy. White House commitment to Afghanistan is questionable at best, despite recent efforts there is still the perception that the US isn’t committed. 5 Rohde et al, 8/11/07 (David, Research Professor, Desert Research Institute, IHT, “How a 'good war' in Afghanistan went bad” http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/12/asia/12afghan.php?page=2) Statements from the … same thing six years later." However, despite hopeful signs the situation remains desperate, absent more troops instability will escalate into civil war, drawing in Russia, Iran, India, and Pakistan and an explosion of terrorism IHT, 12/1/06 (International Herald Tribune, “NATO's failure portends a wider war; Afghanistan I” ln) The abysmal failure of NATO … countries are failing the world. Central Asian instability draws in great powers and escalates to nuclear war Starr 01 – Chair of Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at John Hopkins University [S. Frederick, “The War Against Terrorism and U.S. Bilateral Relations with the Nations of Central Asia,” Testimony before Senate Subcommittee on Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus, Dec 13, http://www.cacianalyst.org/Publications/Starr_Testimony.htm] However, this does not mean …that the U.S. cannot ignore. And instability spills over causing Middle Eastern war and Pakistani regime change The Toronto Star, 7/18/07 (Generals warn of domino effect; “British report says dropping the ball in Afghanistan could leading to Islamists seizing power in Pakistan” ln) Britain's most senior generals …across the Middle East." And regime change causes India and Pakistan nuclear war Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post Staff Writer, 10-21-2001 The prospect of Pakistan … led to World War I. Indo-Pak nuclear war causes extinction Fai 01 – Executive Director of Kashmiri American Council [Ghulam Nabi, “The most dangerous place,” Washington Times, Jul 8, LN] The most dangerous place …would enjoy no sanctuary. Failure in Afghanistan precipitates costly anti-terrorism measures and terrorist attacks that wreck the global economy Colucci, 5/1/07 (Craig, 1st Lt, Military Review, “Committing to Afghanistan: the case for increasing U.S. reconstruction and stabilization aid” http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-163680156.html If, as some say, winning is … sharply at your local Wal-Mart." (47) Al Qaeda will takeover a dozen countries and transform them into nuclear launch sites for an attack on the US. US will be forced to multiple preemptive wars Cetron 07 - President of Forecasting International [Marvin J. Cetron (U.S. News and World Report has identified Dr. Marvin Cetron as one of the nation's foremost futurists. Cetron spent 20 years in research and development planning and forecasting with the U.S. Navy), “Defeating Terrorism: Is It Possible? Is It Probable?” The Futurist May-June 2007, pg. 23-25] 2. Terrorists will gain …too grim to contemplate. The ensuing wars will “End the World” Corsi 05 - Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University [Jerome Corsi (Expert in Antiwar movements and political violence), Atomic Iran, pg. 176-178] The United States retaliates: … capable of exacting revenge. NATO efforts are insufficient to solve the problem. US action with NATO solves instability while providing a veneer of multilateralism in the region that solves hegemony Serchuck, 8/26/05 (Vance, research fellow at AEI, WSJ, The Multilateralism Myth, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.23085,filter.all/pub_detail.asp) There's only one problem: ... The question is: Do the rest of us? 10,000 troops are enough to ensure victory 6 Mackenzie, 8/13/07 (Lewis, first commander of the United Nations' Sector Sarajevo during the Bosnia civil war, Ottawa Citizen, “NATO countries are shirking” http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=027ba0b7-225a-4f0d-9e3f-ae581b5478a0) It's good to see the United States, … combat troops to that front. American troops are a signal of commitment that is critical to solvency, no other actor is effective Lantos, 5/25/06 (Tom, US rep, ranking Democrat on the House International Relations Committee, The Boston Globe, “Let’s Not Lose Afghanistan Again” ln) Since American and … remain there in strength. Establishing security is a pre-requisite to nation-building options Atal 03 [Subodh, Independent Foreign Affairs Analyst, “At a Cross-Roads: Afghanistan,” http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb81.pdf Notwithstanding past failures…will be ineffective. Contention Three: US Hegemony A commitment to Afghanistan is critical to repairing the trust deficit between the US and other major powers that makes coalition building possible. Absent that, US hegemony will not be sustainable Gvosdev, 6/25/03 (Nikolas, editor of In the National Interest, National Interest, “Restoring American Credibility” http://www.inthenationalinterest.com/Articles/Vol2Issue25/Vol2Issue25Gvosdev.html) The passage of UN Security Council Resolution … their capacity to work together." Current US troop levels are insufficient, sending more is critical to credibility and global stability LA Times, 8/27/07 (“Don’t Fail Afghanistan” http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-edafghanistan27aug27,0,3029831.story?coll=la-opinion-center) The United States is now at risk … oil or other economic interests. And committing troops to Afghanistan is critical to solving over stretch in the long-run Soderberg, 2/18/02 (Nancy, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and vice president for multilateral affairs at the International Crisis Group, IHT, “To win the peace: US forces must stay in Afghanistan, http://www.iht.com/articles/2002/02/18/ednancy_ed3_.php) Many of America's allies … of other countries. US presence in Afghanistan is key to power projection and containing strategic competitors in the region Serchuk and Donnelly, 4/11/05 (Vance, research associate, and Thomas, resident fellow in defense and security policy at AEI, Weekly Standard, Nation Building, After All, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.22246,filter.all/pub_detail.asp) Afghanistan certainly has …we could do a lot worse. American leadership is vital to preventing global nuclear conflicts in every region of the world Kagan, 07 - senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History”, 7/19, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html) This is a good thing, … will provide an easier path. US leadership in Asia solves nuclear war Khalilzad, 1995 (Zalmay, RAND, Washington Quarterly, Spring, lexis) The same is also true of Japan… balance of power system. 7 Emory MT, HS, DS, & DiMu Plan: The USFG should declare an end to its regime change activities targeted at the elected PLC. The USFG should condition its hosting of the Middle East peace conference on the establishment of a PA power sharing agreement. Contention _: Summit The November peace summit is at risk and time is running out. Hamas’ inclusion is critical to prevent its failure Levy Sept 17, 07 - Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Initiative @ New America Foundation [Daniel Levy, Senior Fellow and Director of the Prospects for Peace Initiative @ The Century Foundation, “Statement on Secretary Rice’s Forthcoming Middle East Visit,” Prospects for Peace, September 17, 2007, pg. http://www.prospectsforpeace.com/]__ As Secretary Rice …have your fall-back option prepared.) Their exclusion creates a massive incentive for Hamas to sabotage the summit Ben-Ami 07 - Foreign Minister under Ehud Barak, he was a key participant in years of Israel-Palestinian peace talks, including the Camp David and Taba talks in 2000 and 2001. [Shlomo Ben Ami, “Bush's private party,” Ynetnews.com, Published: 08.17.07, 23:10 /, pg. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3437413,00.html]__ The US has always known this, but has for year… destined to proceed on the Iranian track. Hamas is planning a massisve attack to sbotage the conference. Israeli military intelligence proves JTA Sept 16, 07 [The global news service of Jewish people, “Hamas said planning spoiler attack,” Published: 09/16/2007, pg. http://www.jta.org/cgi-bin/iowa/breaking/104155.html] Hamas is planning a major … President Mahmoud Abbas. Additionally - Rice must clarify the details of the Summit or Saudi Arabia will not show Krieger Sept 18, 07 [HILARY LEILA KRIEGER, “Analysis: Rice faces 'tall order' on visit to region,” Jerusalem Post, | Updated Sep 18, 2007 2:04m pg. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1189411423312&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull] The wrangling is indicative of larger …. - and that's reasonable." This will guarantee its failure Ben-Meir Aug 21, 07 - Professor of International Relations at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University. [Alon Ben-Meir, “Commentary: Realpolitik - Mideast peace under Iraq war shadow,” Middle East Times, August 21, 2007, pg. http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070821-123905-5823r] Everyone knows that … makes the Initiative indispensable. November Summit will determine the future of the Middle East. Failure will embolden aggression throughout the region and trigger regionwide attacks on Israel. However, the knock-on effect of a successful Summit will stabilize the region Levy Aug 30, 07 - Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Initiative @ New America Foundation [Daniel Levy, Senior Fellow and Director of the Prospects for Peace Initiative @ The Century Foundation, “November's Peace Summit: Some Guidelines for the Perplexed,” Prospects for Peace, August 30, 2007, pg. http://www.prospectsforpeace.com/2007/08/] 8. What is the best case scenario … experience -- fallback plans should be developed The conflict will escalate to involve regional powers and chemical and biological weapons will be used Berger 07 - CBS News Radio Correspondent, Jerusalem [Robert Berger, “War or Peace? The Middle East at the Crossroads,” An address given to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council, July 19, 2007, pg. www.lawac.org/speech/200607/BERGER,%20Robert%202007.pdf] I’m often asked whether Hamas really … the Middle East. Pg. 2-3 These threats will force an Israeli nuclear counter-strikes Beres 07 – Professor of International Law @ Purdue University [LOUIS RENÉ BERES, “Israel’s Uncertain Strategic Future,” Parameters, Spring 2007, pp. 37-54 http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/07spring/beres.htm] What if enemy first-strikes … escalatory initiative. Pg. 42-43 INDEPENDENTLY … Iran will be forced to attack the US in order to defend its alliance partner 8 Spengler 07 [“Those pesky puppies of war.” Asia Times, May 22, 2007, pg. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IE22Ak01.html] Thanks in part to reporting by Sami Moubayed … , it will seem no less trivial. US-Iranian war risks global destruction Hirsch 06 - Professor of physics @ University of California San Diego. [Jorge Hirsch, “America's nuclear ticking bomb,” San Diego Union Tribune, January 3, 2006, pg. http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html] If only conventional bombs are … versus those targeting cities or armies. Only Hamas’ inclusion can we keep it from playing the role spoiler Khatib Aug. 20, 07 - Vice-president of Birzeit University and a former Palestinian Authority minister of planning. [Ghassan Khatib (coeditor of the bitterlemons family of internet publications.) A PALESTINIAN VIEW: Internal complications,” Published 20/8/2007 © bitterlemons.org, pg. http://www.bitterlemons.org/previous/bl200807ed31.html#pal1] On the Palestinian side, the situation … Palestinian political reality.- Published 20/8/2007 © bitterlemons.org Desperation lays the groundwork for a successful conference. However, Rice’s diplomacy is an essential ingredient Krieger Sept 18, 07 [HILARY LEILA KRIEGER, “Analysis: Rice faces 'tall order' on visit to region,” Jerusalem Post, | Updated Sep 18, 2007 2:04m pg. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1189411423312&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull] David Makovsky of the Washington … It's up to the two sides and what they're willing to do." Saudia Arabia has a genuine desire to broker a power-sharing agreement. Its assistance will prevent a Mideast war Soros 07 – Chair of the Open Society Institute [George Soros, “On Israel, America and AIPAC,” New York Review of Books, Volume 54, Number 6 · April 12, 2007, pg. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/20030] The Bush administration is once …. than a precondition for negotiations.[1] Now is a key time. Olmert currently has the political capital to make bold moves in dealing with Palestinians. Levy Aug 30, 07 - Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Initiative @ New America Foundation [Daniel Levy, Senior Fellow and Director of the Prospects for Peace Initiative @ The Century Foundation, “November's Peace Summit: Some Guidelines for the Perplexed,” Prospects for Peace, August 30, 2007, pg. http://www.prospectsforpeace.com/2007/08/] 5. Are the Israeli and Palestinian leaders politically in a position to carry this off? … Netanyahu and Ehud Barak. Contention _: Al Qaeda US refusal to engage Hamas is a big win for Al Qaeda. Esposito 07 - Professor of Religion & International Affairs @ Georgetown University [John L. Esposito (Director of the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding at Georgetown University), “It's the Policy, Stupid: Political Islam and US Foreign Policy,” The Harvard International Review, May 02, 2007, pg. http://hir.harvard.edu/articles/1453/] Muslim perceptions of the US role … with countries like Iran and Sudan. 1AC Palestine is the root cause of terrorism. Jumpstarting a ceasefire will dry-up support for Al Qaeda Choukri-Fisher 07 - Sr Assistant to Egypt's Minister of Foreign Affairs, specializes in Mideast politics. [Dr Ezzedine Choukri-Fisher, “Terrorism plots sparked by Palestinian crisis: expert,” Interviewed By: Mark Colvin, PM - Tuesday, 3 July, 2007 18:38:00, pg. http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s1969047.htm] MARK COLVIN: The arrests in Queensland …, and in the wider region. 1AC Ending our isolation of Hamas will eliminate Al Qaeda’s recruiting pool Ayoob 06 – Professor of International Relations @ James Madison College [Mohammed Ayoob (Professor of Political Science @ Michigan State University, “THE MIDDLE EAST IN 2025: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY,” MIDDLE EAST POLICY, VOL. XIII, NO. 2, SUMMER 2006] U.S. policy towards Israel-Palestine … by 2025, or even by 2015. Pg. 158-159 1AC Al Qaeda is gearing up for an attack. The most qualified source on the issue side with us National Intelligence Council 07 [National Intelligence Council (NIC) supports the Director of National Intelligence in her role as Principal Intelligence Advisor. National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are the Intelligence Community’s (IC) most authoritative written judgments on national security issues and designed to help US civilian and military leaders develop policies. “The Terrorist 9 Threat to the US Homeland,” National Intelligence Estimate, July 2007, pg. www.dni.gov/press_releases/20070717_release.pdf] We judge the US Homeland will face … it deems is sufficient capability. 1AC That attack will happen within this decade Foreign Policy 07 [Report of a survey more than 100 foreign-policy experts (both liberals and conservatives) administered from May 23-June 26, 2007. “The Terrorism Index,” Foreign Policy, September/October 2007, pg. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3924]__ To find out, FOREIGN POLICY and … less unchanged from one year ago. Current strategy makes another attack inevitable Flynn 07 - Senior Fellow for National Security Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations [Stephen E. Flynn, The Edge of Disaster: Rebuilding a Resilient Nation, (Book Excerpt), pg. http://www.cfr.org/publication/12380/]____ The danger from man-made … United States is attacked again. Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public Byman 07 – Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies @ Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service [Daniel Byman (Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution), “US Counter-terrorism Options: A Taxonomy,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld] One of the biggest problems with containment … have seen terrorists derail peace talks. The ensuing wars will “End the World” Corsi 05 - Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University [Jerome Corsi (Expert in Antiwar movements and political violence), Atomic Iran, pg. 176-178] The United States retaliates: 'End of the world' scenarios INDEPENDENTLY … Al Qaeda will takeover a dozen countries and transform them into nuclear launch sites for an attack on the US. US will be forced to multiple preemptive wars Cetron 07 - President of Forecasting International [Marvin J. Cetron (U.S. News and World Report has identified Dr. Marvin Cetron as one of the nation's foremost futurists. Cetron spent 20 years in research and development planning and forecasting with the U.S. Navy), “Defeating Terrorism: Is It Possible? Is It Probable?” The Futurist May-June 2007, pg. 23-25] 2. Terrorists will gain Weapons of Mass Destruction … are too grim to contemplate. Respect for Palestinians political choice is a precondition to short-circuit Al Qeada’s recruitment efforts Atran 04 – Professor of anthropology and psychology @ University of Michigan [Scott Atran (Director of research at the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris), Terrorism Monitor, Volume 2, Issue 11 (June 03, 2004), pg. http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2368050]__ Like pounding mercury with a hammer, top-heavy … empowerment from a free world. 1AC Engaging Hamas is a critical first step to defeating Al Qaeda. Riedel 07 – Senior Fellow for Political Transitions in the Middle East and South Asia @ Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution. [Bruce Riedel, “The Return of the Knights: al-Qaeda and the Fruits of Middle East Disorder,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007 , pages 107 – 120Informaworld] The ultimate franchise is Palestine … winning the war with al-Qaeda. // 1AC 10 Emory IN The United States federal government should tell the government of Iran it will renounce the use of force to change the Iranian government or territory in exchange for a verifiable commitment from Iran to suspend uranium enrichment and accept monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Global Prolif Iran will have the bomb in 1 year Land, 07 (Thomas, The Middle East, “Nuclear reactors invade the Middle East”, July, infotrac) Late in April, the International … very soon. That would be enough to build a bomb a year. All evidence indicates the program is not peaceful Gordon , Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, is an expert in American foreign policy, Europe and the Middle East 07 (Philip H., June 17, America, Europe, and the Nuclear Challenge from Iran, http://www.gmfus.org/doc/Gordon.Philip%20-%20US%20EU%20Iran.pdf) 1. Iran is seeking nuclear weapons… the price of getting them is too high. A nuclear Iran will lead to rapid proliferation throughout the Middle East and Asia and cause and nuclear wars Kurtz 06 (Stanley, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, “Our Fallout-Shelter Future”, National Review Online, 8/28, http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWU4MDMwNmU5MTI5NGYzN2FmODg5NmYyMWQ4YjM3OTU=) Proliferation optimists, on the other hand, … them from escalating into nuclear confrontations. This will cause WWIII Crytzer, 07 - Lieutenant Colonel in the US Army (Kurt, paper for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT, “MAHDI AND THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR THREAT”, 3/30, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A467203&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) The potential worst case scenario is that … become embroiled in the Third World War. Prolif good authors are wrong about the Middle East—proliferation there uniquely risks war for multiple reasons Russell, 06 (Richard, research associate in Georgetown University’s Institute for the Study of Diplomacy and professor in Georgetown’s Security Studies Program, Military Review, November-December, “Military Planning for a Middle East Stockpiled with Nuclear Weapons”, http://usacac.leavenworth.army.mil/CAC/milreview/English/NovDec06/bob.pdf) How would the Middle East be affected by … powder kegs like the one that exists in Pakistan today. Deterrence will fail in Iran Robbins, 07 (James S., “The Dangers of Deterrence” Editor, Ilan Berman, Vice President for Policy of the American Foreign Policy Council. An expert on regional security in the Middle East, Taking on Tehran: strategies for Confronting the Islamic Republic, 19-22) In the case of Iran, the term "rational" … what is known as a "bolt from the blue" surprise attack. These crash programs destroy any stabilizing benefits of nuclear weapons Madson, 06 – master’s thesis for the Naval Postgraduate School (Peter, “THE SKY IS NOT FALLING: REGIONAL REACTION TO A NUCLEAR-ARMED IRAN”, March, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A445779&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) If the Gulf States were to embark on .. not haphazard races for production. Terrorism Prolif will allow terrorists to access weapons through gift, theft or bribery Robbins, 07 (James S., “The Dangers of Deterrence” Editor, Ilan Berman, Vice President for Policy of the American Foreign Policy Council. An expert on regional security in the Middle East, Taking on Tehran: strategies for Confronting the Islamic Republic, 26-8) It will be at the unconventional warfare level, however, …activated by design or ineptitude, the results would be equally devastating. A nuclear Iran would escalate terrorism against the U.S. in the Middle East – this will create major wars 11 Sokolski, 05 - Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (Henry, Testimony before the House International Relations Committee, 2/16, http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/archives/109/sok021605.pdf) • Increased Terrorism Geared to Diminish U.S. Influence… however, is likely to succeed and could easily make matters worse. The lack of WMD terrorism is because Iran doesn’t have the confidence in a second strike that nuclear weapons will provide Giles, 07 - senior director with Hicks and Associates, Inc. Since 1989, he has led numerous studies for U.S. government clients and pioneered the use of “strategic personality” profiling in the mid-1990s (Gregory, Deterring the Ayatollahs: Complications in Applying Cold War Strategy to Iran, ed: Clawson and Eisenstadt, July, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/download.php?file=PolicyFocus72FinalWeb.pdf) As to the prospects of Iranian nuclear weapons … exception, it might well be the Islamic Republic of Iran. Greater Middle East proliferation undermines deterrence of terrorism Steorts, 06 - deputy managing editor of National Review, (Jason, National Review, “Can Iran be Deterred?”, 10/23, lexis) UNWELCOME RESPONSES And build nuclear arsenals they will… reason not to. And with that we are back to doomsday. Nuclear terrorism will cause global nuclear war and extinction Corsi, 05 (Jerome, phD in political science from Harvard, excerpt from Atomic Iran, http://911review.org/Wget/worldnetdaily.com/NYC_hit_by_terrorist_nuke.html) The combination of horror and outrage that … the country was still capable of exacting revenge. Increasing terrorism in Saudi Arabia would cripple oil production and will rapidly increase global oil prices Sokolski, 05 - Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (Henry, Testimony before the House International Relations Committee, 2/16, http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/archives/109/sok021605.pdf) Iran also has a history of …and make action in the UN Security Council against Tehran far less likely. This will be worse than the Great Depression Pollack, 03 - DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH, SABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICY, THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION (Kenneth, “Securing the Gulf”, Foreign Affairs, July/August, proquest) America's primary interest in the Persian … economy along with everybody else's. Nuclear war MEAD 92 (New Perspectives Quarterly, Summer) What if the global economy … Germany and Japan did in the 30s. Observation : Hegemony Failure to make a comprehensive offer to Iran will eviscerate U.S. leadership internationally and destroy the war on terrorism Leverett, 06 – senior fellow and director of the Geopolitics of Energy Initiative in the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation, also a visiting professor of political science at the Massachussetts Institute of Technology (Flint, Dealing with Tehran: Assessing U.S. Diplomatic Options Toward Iran, December, http://tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/leverett_diplomatic.pdf) It is necessary to take a comprehensive … and ensuring Israel’s long-term security and standing. Nuclear acquisition will destroy the perception of American protective power Wimbush, 07 - Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Future Security Strategies at Hudson Institute (S. Enders, “Understanding the Iran Crisis”, Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 1/31, http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/110/wim013107.htm) Iran is fast building its position as the … the perceived decline in America’s protective power. The plan is the test case for U.S. leadership globally Wiens, 06 – Major in the Army National Guard (Mark, “U.S. Policy Towards an Emerging Iranian-Shia Hegemon”, Thesis for the School of Advanced Military Studies, United States Army Command and General Staff College 5/25, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgibin/GetTRDoc?AD=A450836&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) Kenneth Pollack described this dilemma … to lead the free world, than Iran seeking regional recognition. 12 US EU advantage: US EU Cooperation increasing but conflicts over Iran will collapse the relationship Stokes, ’06 (“A Breather for the Alliance” lexis) The bad news…as they surely will The EU has asked for a US security guarantee in exchange for a ban on enrichment—US opposition to this is undermining the EU approach to Iran Harrison, 06 (“It is time to put security issues on the table with Iran” lexis) Diplomacy has failed…eastern border US EU relations solve global war O’Sullivan, ’04 (online) The report’s starting point…led to 1914 European war go nuclear Glaser, ’93 (International Security) However, although…Europe’s failure. Opposition to the US option of force against Iran will overwhelm cooperation on other issues Taylor 9/6/07 (“Survey finds Iran rift poses transatlantic challenge” online) Europeans and Americans…transatlantic relations This will be the death knell for the US EU relationship Hulsman 06 (online) Initially, the European…on American behavior The plan re-aligns US and European strategy Time 4/6/06 (“Iran Nukes: Are the US and the EU out of Sync” online) The international community is united…finds itself isolated This is vital to the transatlantic alliance Ferguson and van Ham, ‘7 (“Beyond the NRA Doctrine” online) Despite North Korea’s…regional security. This is the most important issue in the US EU relations and will overwhelm resilience Daadler ’06 (America, Europe and the Crescent of Crisis” book) Finally---and more than incidentally--…worth the effort Solvency__ Iran will say yes to a security guarantee Peterson, 06 (Scott, Christian Science Monitor, “US debates carrots, sticks for Iran’s nuclear program”, 5/26, lexis) Amid a din of uncompromising rhetoric from … Iran integrated more fully into the global economy. Plan empowers regime pragmatists who will compromise on the nuclear program to not weaponize it Kupchan and Takeyh, 06 - director at Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm, AND senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (Clifford and Ray, Boston Globe, “US could benefit from a give-and-take strategy with Iran”, 5/23, http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/05/23/us_could_benefit_from_a_give_and_take_strategy_wit h_iran/) Despite his much-reported letter to Bush… viable, multilateral policy of pressure. Offering security guarantees will peel off enough hardliners to get Khamenei to say yes Mattair, independent author and consultant, 07 (Thomas R, Spring, Book Review of Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic, Middle East Policy, Vol. 14, Iss. 1; pg. 153, 5 pgs, Proquest) This is an excellent study of how … clerical power brokers from the cause of nuclear arms." Multiple recent events mean Iran will say yes The Economist, 07 (“Only engage”, 7/21, infotrac) 13 IF A military attack looks too dangerous and … remains on the table and could be improved. Try or die- a security guarantee is the only hope Sagan, 06 - professor of political science and co-director of Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation. (Scott, “How to make Tehran blink”, Newsweek, 9/4, http://cisac.stanford.edu/news/how_to_make_tehran_blink_20060828/) Tehran's response is predictable, however… Iran, that's a good deal for the West as well. It is not too late- US diplomacy can still end Iran’s nuclear program Takeyh,, CFR Fellow, Professor of National Security Studies, National War College; Professor and Director of Studies, Near East and South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University; Fellow in International Security Studies, Yale University, 06 (Ray, The Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic,146-8) More than any other issue, the nuclear question … by the conduct of external actors, particularly the United States. Iran will never trust US threats – inconsistency and selectivity undermine credibility of hardline action Sadri, 07 - Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Central Florida; this article is based upon interviews with Iranian officials (Houman, Military Review, “Surrounded: seeing the world from Iran's point of view.”, July-August) An initial sense of the Iranian leadership's current … to begin a dialogue with Iran on rapprochement. 14 Emory FM The plan: The United States federal government should increase its deployment of troops in Afghanistan on the condition that the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan demonstrates progress in its corruption reform efforts. Contention One: Corruption The Afghani government is a bastion of corruption an honest effort to curb corruption is necessary to prevent a domestic implosion and spur future reforms Motlagh, 2/18/07 (Jason, deputy foreign editor at United Press International in Washington, D.C., American Prospect, “Reform and Function” http://www.e-ariana.com/ariana/eariana.nsf/allArticles/AD6AF099CF8099648725728400735300?OpenDocument) With billions more American taxpayer dollars …like removing the dead leaves." Conditioning future assistance on these reforms is critical to ensuring that resources are being effectively used Wilder, 7/2007 (Andrew, Research Director for Politics and Policy at Tufts University, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, “Cops or Robbers, the Struggle to Reform the Afghan National Police” http://www.areu.org.af/) • The Ministry of Interior (MoI) is notoriously …government and the international community. They’ll say yes, Afghanistan has empirically responded to conditional troop deployments Goodhand and Sedra, 1/2007 (Jonathan and Mark, Senior Lecturer in Development Practice, University of London, Research Associate at the Bonn International Center for Conversion, International Peacekeeping, Vol.14, No.1, “Bribes or Bargains? Peace Conditionalities and ‘Post-Conflict’ Reconstruction in Afghanistan” p. 41) Other PRT-contributing states … Khan in April 2006.26 And Karzai wants troops Lal, 2006 (Rollie, Rand Corporation, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin__/GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf__) The U.S. interest in preventing … arenas in which to cooperate. Conditional assistance is uniquely better than unconditional assistance. The act of conditioning independently prevents conflict and instability even if reforms don’t solve Goodhand and Sedra, 1/2007 (Jonathan and Mark, Senior Lecturer in Development Practice, University of London, Research Associate at the Bonn International Center for Conversion, International Peacekeeping, Vol.14, No.1, “Bribes or Bargains? Peace Conditionalities and ‘Post-Conflict’ Reconstruction in Afghanistan” p. 41) Aid has political impacts … insulate themselves from the state. And conditions create the institutional framework that is necessary for pushing for future reforms Goodhand and Sedra, 1/2007 (Jonathan and Mark, Senior Lecturer in Development Practice, University of London, Research Associate at the Bonn International Center for Conversion, International Peacekeeping, Vol.14, No.1, “Bribes or Bargains? Peace Conditionalities and ‘Post-Conflict’ Reconstruction in Afghanistan” p. 41) The time frames set … and society more broadly. Contention Two: Instability 2007 will make or break Afghanistan, despite a growing insurgency, the US still has the ability to turn the tide Bergen, 2/15/07 (Peter, Schwartz Senior Fellow, New American Foundation, Peter Bergen's Afghanistan Testimony Before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, http://www.newamerica.net/publications/resources/2007/peter_bergens_afghanistan_testimony_before_the_house_committee_on_fore ign_affairs) 2007 will likely be a … and a more vibrant economy. 15 White House commitment to Afghanistan is questionable at best, despite recent efforts there is still the perception that the US isn’t committed. Rohde et al, 8/11/07 (David, Research Professor, Desert Research Institute, IHT, “How a 'good war' in Afghanistan went bad” http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/12/asia/12afghan.php?page=2) Statements from the … same thing six years later." However, despite hopeful signs the situation remains desperate, absent more troops instability will escalate into civil war, drawing in Russia, Iran, India, and Pakistan and an explosion of terrorism IHT, 12/1/06 (International Herald Tribune, “NATO's failure portends a wider war; Afghanistan I” ln) The abysmal failure of NATO … countries are failing the world. Central Asian instability draws in great powers and escalates to nuclear war Starr 01 – Chair of Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at John Hopkins University [S. Frederick, “The War Against Terrorism and U.S. Bilateral Relations with the Nations of Central Asia,” Testimony before Senate Subcommittee on Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus, Dec 13, http://www.cacianalyst.org/Publications/Starr_Testimony.htm] However, this does not mean …that the U.S. cannot ignore. And instability spills over causing Middle Eastern war and Pakistani regime change The Toronto Star, 7/18/07 (Generals warn of domino effect; “British report says dropping the ball in Afghanistan could leading to Islamists seizing power in Pakistan” ln) Britain's most senior generals …across the Middle East." And regime change causes India and Pakistan nuclear war Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post Staff Writer, 10-21-2001 The prospect of Pakistan … led to World War I. Indo-Pak nuclear war causes extinction Fai 01 – Executive Director of Kashmiri American Council [Ghulam Nabi, “The most dangerous place,” Washington Times, Jul 8, LN] The most dangerous place …would enjoy no sanctuary. Failure in Afghanistan precipitates costly anti-terrorism measures and terrorist attacks that wreck the global economy Colucci, 5/1/07 (Craig, 1st Lt, Military Review, “Committing to Afghanistan: the case for increasing U.S. reconstruction and stabilization aid” http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-163680156.html If, as some say, winning is … sharply at your local Wal-Mart." (47) Al Qaeda will takeover a dozen countries and transform them into nuclear launch sites for an attack on the US. US will be forced to multiple preemptive wars Cetron 07 - President of Forecasting International [Marvin J. Cetron (U.S. News and World Report has identified Dr. Marvin Cetron as one of the nation's foremost futurists. Cetron spent 20 years in research and development planning and forecasting with the U.S. Navy), “Defeating Terrorism: Is It Possible? Is It Probable?” The Futurist May-June 2007, pg. 23-25] 2. Terrorists will gain …too grim to contemplate. The ensuing wars will “End the World” Corsi 05 - Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University [Jerome Corsi (Expert in Antiwar movements and political violence), Atomic Iran, pg. 176-178] The United States retaliates: … capable of exacting revenge. NATO efforts are insufficient to solve the problem. US action with NATO solves instability while providing a veneer of multilateralism in the region that solves hegemony Serchuck, 8/26/05 (Vance, research fellow at AEI, WSJ, The Multilateralism Myth, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.23085,filter.all/pub_detail.asp) 16 There's only one problem: ... The question is: Do the rest of us? 10,000 troops are enough to ensure victory Mackenzie, 8/13/07 (Lewis, first commander of the United Nations' Sector Sarajevo during the Bosnia civil war, Ottawa Citizen, “NATO countries are shirking” http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=027ba0b7-225a-4f0d-9e3f-ae581b5478a0) It's good to see the United States, … combat troops to that front. American troops are a signal of commitment that is critical to solvency, no other actor is effective Lantos, 5/25/06 (Tom, US rep, ranking Democrat on the House International Relations Committee, The Boston Globe, “Let’s Not Lose Afghanistan Again” ln) Since American and … remain there in strength. Establishing security is a pre-requisite to nation-building options Atal 03 [Subodh, Independent Foreign Affairs Analyst, “At a Cross-Roads: Afghanistan,” http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb81.pdf Notwithstanding past failures…will be ineffective. Contention Three: US Hegemony A commitment to Afghanistan is critical to repairing the trust deficit between the US and other major powers that makes coalition building possible. Absent that, US hegemony will not be sustainable Gvosdev, 6/25/03 (Nikolas, editor of In the National Interest, National Interest, “Restoring American Credibility” http://www.inthenationalinterest.com/Articles/Vol2Issue25/Vol2Issue25Gvosdev.html) The passage of UN Security Council Resolution … their capacity to work together." Current US troop levels are insufficient, sending more is critical to credibility and global stability LA Times, 8/27/07 (“Don’t Fail Afghanistan” http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-edafghanistan27aug27,0,3029831.story?coll=la-opinion-center) The United States is now at risk … oil or other economic interests. And committing troops to Afghanistan is critical to solving over stretch in the long-run Soderberg, 2/18/02 (Nancy, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and vice president for multilateral affairs at the International Crisis Group, IHT, “To win the peace: US forces must stay in Afghanistan, http://www.iht.com/articles/2002/02/18/ednancy_ed3_.php) Many of America's allies … of other countries. US presence in Afghanistan is key to power projection and containing strategic competitors in the region Serchuk and Donnelly, 4/11/05 (Vance, research associate, and Thomas, resident fellow in defense and security policy at AEI, Weekly Standard, Nation Building, After All, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.22246,filter.all/pub_detail.asp) Afghanistan certainly has …we could do a lot worse. American leadership is vital to preventing global nuclear conflicts in every region of the world Kagan, 07 - senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History”, 7/19, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html) This is a good thing, … will provide an easier path. US leadership in Asia solves nuclear war Khalilzad, 1995 (Zalmay, RAND, Washington Quarterly, Spring, lexis) The same is also true of Japan… balance of power system. 17 GMU HO Plan Text Plan Text- The United States Federal Government should offer the Islamic Republic of Iran a security guarantee that the United States will not preemptively strike Iran. The United States should also offer dialogue with The Islamic Republic of Iran. 1ac w/ cites US will strike Iran now- Germany’s refusal to impose sanctions pushes diplomacy off the table- strike will happen in 8-10 months The Jerusalem Post Sept 12 2007 (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1189411396419&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull) Germany's unwillingness to …the nuclear facilities. BUSH’S LATEST RHETORIC MAKE AN ATTACK ON IRAN IMMINENT Tim Shipman, Sunday Telegraph, September 4, 2007 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/02/wiran102.xml On Tuesday, President Bush … reactor in 1981 Contention Two- The Strike and Iranian Retaliation Iran will retaliate in 15 minutes San Francisco Chronicle 2005 /Borzou Daragahi, Staff writer, “Iran Readies Military, Fearing a U.S. Attack Tensions with Bush administration surge over Tehran's disputed nuclear ambition,” http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0221-24.htm Iran has begun …for a weapons program. Iran would lock down the Strait of Hormuz, decimate carrier groups, destroy ground forces, and coordinate terrorist attacks Timmerman, Nobel Peace Prize Nominee for his writing on Iran, 2006 (Kenneth, “Iran Readies Plan to Close Strait of Hormuz” http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/2/28/181730.shtml) Iran's Revolutionary Guards…. targets and against Israel, Open sea lanes in the Strait of Hormuz is critical to the economy. 6-22-2000 Oil resources and … competitive security strategy. That Leads to extinction Mead 92 Walter Russel Mead, Senior Fellow in American FoPo @ the Council on Foreign Relations, World Policy Institute, Hundreds of millions… in the 30s Contention 3- Transatlantic Alliance US-EU RIFT IS GROWING BECAUSE THE MILITARY OPTION IS ON THE TABLE THE GUARDIAN JANUARY 31ST 2007, www.commondreams.org/headlines07/0131-03.htm Senior European policy- area in weeks. AND, Engagement from Washington is critical to US-EU relations. Failure to engage means US-EU relations die. Ferguson & van Ham 2007 [Charles D. Ferguson, fellow for science and technology based in the Washington, DC office of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Peter van Ham, director of global governance research at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael in The Hague and professor at the College of Europe in Bruges, The National Interest, WINTER 2007) A major transatlantic multilateral, with Tehran. The EU-US alliance is critical to preserving US military, economic and political interests globally Hunter 2003 (Robert E., Sr. Fellow @ RAND, TWQ Winter, projectMUSE) The destinies of the United States… economically, and militarily Contention 4- Moderates 18 Lifting sanctions leads to moderate power. Brzezinski, Gates, and Maloney 2004 (Zbigniew, Robert, and Suzanne, “Iran: Time for a New Approach”, Council on Foreign Relations) Conservatives and hard-liners politically painful steps. AND, moderate, democratic Iran provides a model for regional transition to democracy Brzezinski, Gates, and Maloney 2004 (Zbigniew, Robert, and Suzanne, “Iran: Time for a New Approach”, Council on Foreign Relations) Iran thus lies … more democratic order. Democracy in Iran would spread throughout the Middle East Ledeen, 03 (Michael. November. “Nothing to lose but their chains) http://aei.org/publications/pubID.19506,filter.all/pub_detail.asp Iran is ready the liberation of Iraq Democracies are key to prevent extinction Diamond 1995 [Larry Diamond, senior research fellow for Hoover Institute, professor at Stanford University, and co-director of National Endowment for Democracy International Forum for Democratic Studies, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives,” 1995] This hardly exhausts ….sovereignty, and openness. Plan Text- The United States Federal Government should offer the Islamic Republic of Iran a security guarantee that the United States will not preemptively strike Iran. The United States should also offer dialogue with The Islamic Republic of Iran. Contention 5- Solvency Constructive dialogue and engagement is only possible with Iran if we stop threatening to attack them. Richardson, 07 [Bill Richardson. New Mexico Governor. Engagement with Iran and Foreign Policy in the Middle East. July 27, 2007. DES5] However, no constructive … in the future. détente with Iran gives moderates power that would create a situation in which Tehran’s relationship with Washington is more important than terrorist ties or the pursuit of nuclear weapons. Takeyh 07(Ray. Foreign Affairs, March/April. “Time for Détente With Iran” The most effective way …its national objectives. Security guarantees and engagement solve. Iran will respond constructively and disable their authoritarian systems. Carpenter 2007. (Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, “Don't Take Covert Action Against Iran” May 25, 2007) Rather than go … growing middle class. Engagement with Tehran solves relations, proliferation, Iraq, regional stability in the Middle East, the war on terror, energy security, Israel, and global leadership. Flynt Leverett 2006 “Dealing with Tehran: assessing U.S. Diplomatic Options toward Iran” Century Foundation Report, pp. 1-30) In the end… security and standing. The plan helps normalize relations by bolstering Iranian pragmatism. A cooperative relationship with Iran is the only hope for peace. Takeyh 2007 (Ray, Senior Fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations, “Time For Détente with Iran”, Foreign Affairs April/May) Over five …foe, the better. 19 Georgia CH ADVANTAGE 1 - PROLIFERATION A nuclear Iran is becoming a real probability; even conservative estimates say they’re only three years away. Economist 07 (July 19, “The Riddle of Iran” http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9514293) “THE Iranian regime is basically… build one within three to eight years. If Iran goes nuclear, it would cause regional proliferation, and thereby increase the risk of nuclear terrorism, accidental use, and create the most likely scenario for nuclear war. Rosen 06 (Stephen Peter - Beton Michael Kaneb Professor of National Security and Military Affairs and Director of the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University, “After Proliferation” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2006, Vol. 85 Issue 5, p9-14, 6p EBSCO) Actually, however, a postproliferation… plausible candidates for such a nightmare. The longer that Iran continues to pursue weapons, the more other nations in the region make their own plans for nuclear programs unless stopped, it would engulf the entire region. Pedatzur 07 (Reuven, “Danger for the entire world,” Haaretz, 8/22, http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/896178.html) The renewed focus on nuclear programs… Russia on nuclear technology. And, this proliferation would culminate in preemptive nuclear strikes causing worldwide nuclear war. Utgoff 02 (Victor A. - Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of Institute for Defense Analysis, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions,” Survival, Summer, p. 87-90) Further, the large number… even in the face of nuclear threats. ADVANTAGE 2 - LEADERSHIP Iran is the test case for US international and regional influence - effective US diplomatic engagement is key to US leadership. Leverett 06 (Flynt - senior fellow and director of the Geopolitics of Energy Initiative in the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation & visiting professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, “Dealing with Tehran:Assessing U.S. Diplomatic Options toward Iran” A Century Foundation Report, http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/leverett_diplomatic.pdf) Regional and Great Power Politics … Israel’s long-term security and standing. Finally, US leadership stops global nuclear war Khalilzad 95 (Zalmay, Washington Quarterly, Spring, lexis) Under the third option, the United States… balance of power system. ADVANTAGE 3 - STRIKES Bush has been making preparations for an air strike that will start World War Three and destroy the world economy. Street 8/11/07 (Paul, “They wouldn't really attack Iran, would they?” Arab-American News, http://www.arabamericannews.com/newsarticle.php?articleid=9498) Remember the old neoconservative… has helped make up the difference. And, strikes would fail and cause Iran to accelerate their drive for nuclear weapons while subjecting the US to international isolation only a security guarantee solves. Larrabee 06 (F. Stephen - holds the Corporate Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation, 3/9, “Defusing the Iranian Crisis,” http://www.rand.org/commentary/030906OCR.html) Iran's decision to resume… return for a ban on uranium enrichment. And, don’t be fooled by Bush’s current commitment to the UN and diplomacy, his plans are clear - we will strike Iran, causing a worldwide recession. 20 Krauthammer 06 (Charles, Sept 15th, Washington Post, “The Tehran Calculus” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2006/09/14/AR2006091401413_pf.html) In his televised Sept. 11 address, President… be in a deep spiral. And, the impact is nuclear war. Mead 92 (Walter Russell - Fellow, Council of Foreign Relations, New Perspectives Quarterly, Summer, p.28) But what if it can’t?... Japan did in the ‘30’s. Plan: The United States Federal Government should offer Iran economic incentives and a non-aggression pact in exchange for a verifiable agreement by Iran to limit their nuclear facilities to civilian use. SOLVENCY: By reestablishing diplomatic relations which include an offer of a US security guarantee coupled with economic incentives, the US would be able to stop Iranian nuclearization. Leverett 06 (Flynt - senior fellow and director of the Geopolitics of Energy Initiative in the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation & visiting professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, “Dealing with Tehran:Assessing U.S. Diplomatic Options toward Iran” A Century Foundation Report, http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/leverett_diplomatic.pdf) Defining a “Grand Bargain”… ts already disturbing decline. Specifically, economic incentives are a necessary prerequisite for Iranian acceptance. Pollack and Takeyh 05 (Kenneth - Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and Ray Senior Fellow in Middle East Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Foreign Affairs, “Taking on Tehran,” Mar/Apr2005, Vol. 84 Issue 2, p20-34, 15p, EBSCO) IN AN IDEAL WORLD… foreign policy aspirations. In addition to economic incentives, the US needs to remove the threat of regime change and offer Iran a security guarantee to get Iran to end their nuclear program and submit to inspections. Sagan 06 (Scott D. - professor of political science and director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, Newsweek, “How to Make Tehran Blink” Sept 4th, lexis) Given Tehran's defiant response… deal for the West as well. 21 Georgia DM Plan: The United States federal government should condition its assistance to the Palestinian Authority on the assistance not being for the purpose of regime change activities targeted at the elected Palestinian Authority. The United Stated Federal Government should invite the elected Palestinian Authority to participate in the November Middle East peace conference. The conference should be used to renew the Palestinian power sharing agreement. Contention 1: Summit The November peace summit is at risk and time is running out. Hamas’ inclusion is critical to prevent its failure Levy Sept 17, 07 - Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Initiative @ New America Foundation [Daniel Levy, Senior Fellow and Director of the Prospects for Peace Initiative @ The Century Foundation, “Statement on Secretary Rice’s Forthcoming Middle East Visit,” Prospects for Peace, September 17, 2007, pg. http://www.prospectsforpeace.com/] Hamas perceives summit sabotage as means of reestablishing the power-sharing agreement Makovsky Sept 20, 07 - Senior fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process @ The Washington Institute. [David Makovsky, “Rice's Obstacles on the Road to an Israeli-Palestinian Breakthrough,” PolicyWatch #1289, September 20, 2007, pg. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2665] Additionally - Rice must clarify the details of the Summit or Saudi Arabia will not show Krieger Sept 18, 07 [HILARY LEILA KRIEGER, “Analysis: Rice faces 'tall order' on visit to region,” Jerusalem Post, | Updated Sep 18, 2007 2:04m pg. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1189411423312&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull] This will guarantee its failure Ben-Meir Aug 21, 07 - Professor of International Relations at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University. [Alon Ben-Meir, “Commentary: Realpolitik - Mideast peace under Iraq war shadow,” Middle East Times, August 21, 2007, pg. http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070821-123905-5823r] November Summit will determine the future of the Middle East. Failure will embolden aggression throughout the region and trigger regionwide attacks on Israel. However, the knock-on effect of a successful Summit will stabilize the region Levy Aug 30, 07 - Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Initiative @ New America Foundation [Daniel Levy, Senior Fellow and Director of the Prospects for Peace Initiative @ The Century Foundation, “November's Peace Summit: Some Guidelines for the Perplexed,” Prospects for Peace, August 30, 2007, pg. http://www.prospectsforpeace.com/2007/08/] The conflict will escalate to involve regional powers and chemical and biological weapons will be used Berger 07 - CBS News Radio Correspondent, Jerusalem [Robert Berger, “War or Peace? The Middle East at the Crossroads,” An address given to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council, July 19, 2007, pg. www.lawac.org/speech/200607/BERGER,%20Robert%202007.pdf] These threats will force an Israeli nuclear counter-strikes Beres 07 – Professor of International Law @ Purdue University [LOUIS RENÉ BERES, “Israel’s Uncertain Strategic Future,” Parameters, Spring 2007, pp. 37-54 http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/07spring/beres.htm] INDEPENDENTLY … Iran will be forced to attack the US in order to defend its alliance partner Spengler 07 [“Those pesky puppies of war.” Asia Times, May 22, 2007, pg. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IE22Ak01.html] US-Iranian war risks global destruction Hirsch 06 - Professor of physics @ University of California San Diego. [Jorge Hirsch, “America's nuclear ticking bomb,” San Diego Union Tribune, January 3, 2006, pg. http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html] Only Hamas’ inclusion can we keep it from playing the role spoiler Khatib Aug. 20, 07 - Vice-president of Birzeit University and a former Palestinian Authority minister of planning. [Ghassan Khatib 22 (coeditor of the bitterlemons family of internet publications.) A PALESTINIAN VIEW: Internal complications,” Published 20/8/2007 © bitterlemons.org, pg. http://www.bitterlemons.org/previous/bl200807ed31.html#pal1] Desperation lays the groundwork for a successful conference. However, Rice’s diplomacy is an essential ingredient Krieger Sept 18, 07 [HILARY LEILA KRIEGER, “Analysis: Rice faces 'tall order' on visit to region,” Jerusalem Post, | Updated Sep 18, 2007 2:04m pg. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1189411423312&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull] The prospects of renewing the Mecca agreement will get Saudi Arabia to the conference. It perceives a resolution of this dispute as its primary task Siniora 07 - Palestinian Co-CEO of IPCRI - the Israel-Palestine Center for Research and Information. [Hanna Siniora, “Commentary: Elements of a Mecca II Accord,” Middle East Times, July 16, 2007 pg. http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070716-085855-7400r] The prospects of renewing the Mecca agreement will get Saudi Arabia to the conference. It perceives a resolution of this dispute as its primary task Siniora 07 - Palestinian Co-CEO of IPCRI - the Israel-Palestine Center for Research and Information. [Hanna Siniora, “Commentary: Elements of a Mecca II Accord,” Middle East Times, July 16, 2007 pg. http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070716-085855-7400r] Saudi participation will keep Olmert from leaving the conference. It will set the stage for comprehensive peace Makovsky 07 - Director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process @ Washington Institute for Near East Policy [David Makovsky, “Makovsky: Time is Right for Israeli-Arab Negotiations,” Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, Council for Foreign Relations, April 2, 2007, pg. http://www.cfr.org/publication/12972/makovsky.html] Now is a key time. Olmert currently has the political capital to make bold moves in dealing with Palestinians. Levy Aug 30, 07 - Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Initiative @ New America Foundation [Daniel Levy, Senior Fellow and Director of the Prospects for Peace Initiative @ The Century Foundation, “November's Peace Summit: Some Guidelines for the Perplexed,” Prospects for Peace, August 30, 2007, pg. http://www.prospectsforpeace.com/2007/08/] Contention 2: Al Qaeda US refusal to engage Hamas is a big win for Al Qaeda. Esposito 07 - Professor of Religion & International Affairs @ Georgetown University [John L. Esposito (Director of the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding at Georgetown University), “It's the Policy, Stupid: Political Islam and US Foreign Policy,” The Harvard International Review, May 02, 2007, pg. http://hir.harvard.edu/articles/1453/] Palestine is the root cause of terrorism. Jumpstarting a ceasefire will dry-up support for Al Qaeda Choukri-Fisher 07 - Sr Assistant to Egypt's Minister of Foreign Affairs, specializes in Mideast politics. [Dr Ezzedine Choukri-Fisher, “Terrorism plots sparked by Palestinian crisis: expert,” Interviewed By: Mark Colvin, PM - Tuesday, 3 July, 2007 18:38:00, pg. http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s1969047.htm] Ending our isolation of Hamas will eliminate Al Qaeda’s recruiting pool Ayoob 06 – Professor of International Relations @ James Madison College [Mohammed Ayoob (Professor of Political Science @ Michigan State University, “THE MIDDLE EAST IN 2025: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY,” MIDDLE EAST POLICY, VOL. XIII, NO. 2, SUMMER 2006] Al Qaeda is gearing up for an attack. The most qualified source on the issue side with us National Intelligence Council 07 [National Intelligence Council (NIC) supports the Director of National Intelligence in her role as Principal Intelligence Advisor. National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are the Intelligence Community’s (IC) most authoritative written judgments on national security issues and designed to help US civilian and military leaders develop policies. “The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland,” National Intelligence Estimate, July 2007, pg. www.dni.gov/press_releases/20070717_release.pdf] That attack will happen within this decade Foreign Policy 07 [Report of a survey more than 100 foreign-policy experts (both liberals and conservatives) administered from May 23 23-June 26, 2007. “The Terrorism Index,” Foreign Policy, September/October 2007, pg. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3924%5D__|http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3924]__ Current strategy makes another attack inevitable Flynn 07 - Senior Fellow for National Security Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations [Stephen E. Flynn, The Edge of Disaster: Rebuilding a Resilient Nation, (Book Excerpt), pg. http://www.cfr.org/publication/12380/%5D__|http://www.cfr.org/publication/12380/]__ Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public Byman 07 – Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies @ Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service [Daniel Byman (Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution), “US Counter-terrorism Options: A Taxonomy,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld] The ensuing wars will “End the World” Corsi 05 - Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University [Jerome Corsi (Expert in Antiwar movements and political violence), Atomic Iran, pg. 176-178] INDEPENDENTLY … Al Qaeda will takeover a dozen countries and transform them into nuclear launch sites for an attack on the US. US will be forced to multiple preemptive wars Cetron 07 - President of Forecasting International [Marvin J. Cetron (U.S. News and World Report has identified Dr. Marvin Cetron as one of the nation's foremost futurists. Cetron spent 20 years in research and development planning and forecasting with the U.S. Navy), “Defeating Terrorism: Is It Possible? Is It Probable?” The Futurist May-June 2007, pg. 23-25] Respect for Palestinians political choice is a precondition to short-circuit Al Qeada’s recruitment efforts Atran 04 – Professor of anthropology and psychology @ University of Michigan [Scott Atran (Director of research at the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris), Terrorism Monitor, Volume 2, Issue 11 (June 03, 2004), pg. http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2368050] Engaging Hamas is a critical first step to defeating Al Qaeda. Riedel 07 – Senior Fellow for Political Transitions in the Middle East and South Asia @ Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution. [Bruce Riedel, “The Return of the Knights: al-Qaeda and the Fruits of Middle East Disorder,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007 , pages 107 – 120//Informaworld] 24 Iowa BS Text: The USFG should constructively engage Iran by offering Iran a binding guarantee that the US will not use force to change the borders or form of government of Iran, lift nearly all US sanctions levied against Iran, settle all bilateral claims with Iran, establish democratic relations with Iran, and commit to working with Iran to enhance its economic interests if Iran agrees to limit its enrichment program to one facility with full transparency and strengthened monitoring by the IAEA and if Iran supports US regional interests including cooperation in Iraq and Afghanistan. The USFG should commit to implementing the results of this agreement. Contention One: Inherency The US must admit that Iran’s regime won’t change, its regional preeminence is guaranteed, and seek a complete reinvention of USIran relations – the status quo of containment, possible strikes, and multilateral diplomacy will fail. Takeyh, 07 (Senior Fellow – CFR, March/April, Foreign Affairs) In the midst of the mess stands the Islamic Republic of Iran… to coexist with Iran while limiting its excesses. The US must propose a broad renegotiation of relations now – any delay makes future rapprochement impossible. Leverett, 06 (Director, Geopolitics of Energy Initiative New America Foundation, Dec 19, http://www.iranian.com/Opinion/2006/December/Leverett110/index.html) I think if we are willing to put that on the table… damage to the American strategic position in the region. Recent overtures and political changes have made Iran receptive to a grand bargain now. Memarian, 8-15-7 (Journalist & visiting scholar at UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/omidmemarian/grand-bargain-rafsanjani_b_60547.html) Despite rocky negotiations between US and Iran held in Baghdad… will they become viable items on the diplomatic agenda? Contention Two: Prolif “Quick” estimates for Iranian proliferation are empirically wrong – we have 5-10 years and time is on our side. Carpenter, 06 (Cato Institute, Sept 20, http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa578.pdf) Above all, as policymakers consider the various options, … . There is no need for precipitous action. There are no secret facilities – we know what Iran has now. Cirincione, 06 (Vice president for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, Nov, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_11/StopIran.asp) Based on what we now know, it is unlikely that Iran... and develop enrichment and reprocessing capabilities Iran hasn’t made a decision on the bomb and security is the driving force for its development – a security guarantee can change their calculus. 25 Albright, 06 (President of the Institute for Science and International Security and a former weapons inspector for the IAEA, 2-6, http://www.cfr.org/publication/9780/albright.html) And so I take it from what you're saying, you think Iran's purpose… the United States to give a security guarantee to Iran. Motivations are irrelevant – if our incentives are big enough, we can empirically influence Iran’s decision to build nuclear weapons. Pollack, 06 (Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Current History, Dec) The Iranians clearly have a range of powerful motivations... disincentives geared to the priorities of the state in question. Iranian prolif causes a cascade of prolif throughout the region and hair-trigger nuclear crises – nuclear war is guaranteed. Allison, 06 (Graham, Harvard Government Professor, Boston Globe, May 12) Before accepting the answer that the US can deal with an Iranian nuclear bomb… six-chamber revolver-dramatically increasing the likelihood of a regional nuclear war. Only engagement can reassure our Middle East allies’ security – containment will not be credible and fail. El-Hokayem, 06 (Research Fellow with the Henry L. Stimson Center’s Southwest Asia/Gulf program, Nov 6, http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?id=349) The United States should not press its Gulf allies into adopting…. offer a conditional security guarantee to Iran as a basis for direct talks. One can always hope. Nuclearization causes Iran to increase its efforts to limit US power in the Middle East – this makes every scenario for Middle East conflict inevitable, risks miscalculation, and nuclear war. Yaphne et al, 05 (PhD. Senior Research Fellow, Institute for National Strategic Studies, http://www.iranwatch.org/ourpubs/roundtables/rtiranianbomb-090105.htm) After acquiring nuclear weapons, Iran will want to test the limits… projected here will extend farther into the future. Iranian prolif causes US strikes on Iran. 26 Donnelly, 05 (Resident Fellow – AEI, October, Ed. Sokolski & Clawson, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB629.pdf) U.S. strategy for a nuclear Iran must be made to fit this broader framework… larger puzzle of political transformation for the Middle East. The US will use nuclear weapons which causes global nuclear war and extinction. Hirsch, 06 (Professor of Physics at the University of California at San Diego & Fellow of the American Physical Society, April 10, http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=10071) Iran is likely to respond to any US attack using its considerable missile arsenal… In the next global conflict we will all be gone before anybody has prevailed. All of these impacts are possible not because Iran is crazy, but because US confrontational tactics have pushed Iran into a corner and made the risk of miscalculation and proliferation inevitable. Gonzalez, 9-12-7 (Founder of nationandstate.org, Masters in International Affairs – Columbia, and Author of “Engaging Iran,” http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/4537) As the United States continues to move toward…"axis of evil" -- have not gone unnoticed. Contention Three: Regional Stability US containment of Iran has increased the power of hardliners in the Iranian government – engagement increases the influence of reformers and makes Iran a cooperative ally of the US. Sadjadpour, 06 (Analyst -- ICG, May 18, http://www.senate.gov/%7Eforeign/testimony/2006/SadjadpourTestimony060517.pdf) I do not believe that a nuclear-armed Iran is inevitable… peace with the international community. Only a comprehensive negotiation of relations with Iran cements US hegemony in the Middle East – it prevent Iranian hegemony, increases US cooperation with other Middle East actors, and increases Iranian cooperation on issues vital to US security. Leverett, 06 (Director, Geopolitics of Energy Initiative New America Foundation, 12-4, http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/leverett_diplomatic.pdf) It is necessary to take a comprehensive approach... absent a strategic understanding with Iran. A loss of US leadership causes global nuclear exchange. Khalilzad, ‘95 27 Wash Quarterly, Spring, Rand Analyst & Satan you know the card. Specifically, US Mid-East influence is critical to preventing war and global economic collapse. Khalilzad et al, 98 Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century, Ed. Khalilzad & Lesser, pg. 12 The greater Middle East will remain a flashpoint… leading to serious prospects of overall breakdowns. Mid-east conflict goes nuclear. Steinbach, 02 [DC Iraq Coalition, March, www.wagingpeace.org/articles/02.03/0331steinbachisrael.htm] Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction… Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration." Iran isn’t destabilizing Iraq now, but further confrontation risks Iranian destabilization. Engagement creates a critical partner to manage the crisis. ICG, 05 (Middle East Report N°38 – 21 March) The notion is widely accepted in Iraq, the Arab… and frozen pre-revolutionary Iranian assets. Civil war in Iraq is inevitable – the surge is failing and we are screwed. Simon & Takeyh, 9-8-7 [senior fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations, LA Times, "Amid civil war, reports mean little" http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-takeyh8sep08,0,4848593.story?coll=la-opinion-rightrail] Though the Bush administration makes flamboyant claims… the United States can do to chart that path Iraqi civil war escalates – cause world war. Ferguson, 06 (History Professor – Harvard, Sept-Oct, Foreign Affairs) What makes the escalating civil war in Iraq so disturbing... but more likely on Palestine and Mesopotamia. Contention Four: Solvency 28 The US should propose a grand bargain at a bilateral US-Iranian summit – only direct engagement with an incentives-only package that renegotiates all US-Iranian issues can get Iran to agree to a deal. Cortright & Lopez, 06 (Principal Co-Investigators for the Kroc Institute's Sanctions and Security Project, June, http://kroc.nd.edu/polbriefs/PolBrief11.pdf) The escalating crisis between Iran and the United States… invite Iran to a full and wideranging summit Iran will only agree to a grand bargain – only a complete restructuring of relations gains Iranian trust. Leverett, 06 (Director, Geopolitics of Energy Initiative New America Foundation, 12-4, http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/leverett_diplomatic.pdf) Taken together, these considerations argue… nuclear activities ignores the lessons of this history Iran says yes – Khamenei wants the plan and Ahmadinejad lacks the power to check it. Mattair, 07 (Consultant on international affairs to government and business firms in the United States and the Middle East, Middle East Policy, June, 14(2)) The real potential to produce agreements lies in U.S.- Iranian talks… partnerships between GCC states and the United States A 6 month deadline means solvency is quick. Carpenter, 06 (Cato Institute, Sept 20, http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa578.pdf) And we have little to lose by making the offer… all of the other options would still be available. Even hardliners will support the plan if it includes limited enrichment and inspections prevent breakout. Parsi, 07 (President -- NIAC, World Policy Journal, Winter) It seems futile for Washington to wait for pragmatists… Iran cannot be permanently isolated. Lifting sanctions key – Iranian moderates want US investment to strengthen the Iranian economy and they would trade nuclear weapons for it. Pollack & Takeyh, 05 (Senior Fellow – Brookings & Senior Fellow – CFR, Foreign Affairs, July/August) As part of the broader battle over their country's nuclear program… in their economic situation than some Western academics.** 29 JCU ML 1. Inherency – Bush blocks peace deal UPI explained on July 11, 2007 (news.monstersandcritics.com/middleeast/features/article_1328655.php/Rumors_of_war_talk_of_peace) Assad, I`m ready to hold direct negotiations for peace Plan: The United States Federal Government will constructively engage Syria. The United States will offer normalized relations, abandonment of efforts for regime change, and support for return of the Golan in accordance with Track II negotiations in exchange for peace between Syria and Israel, an abandonment of its Iranian alliance, full cooperation on terrorism, pressure to moderate Hamas and Hizbollah, and assistance in resolving issues in Iraq. The agreements will be negotiated quid pro quo. Funding and enforcement through normal means. Advantage 1: War At crossroads of war between Syria and Israel The Mideast Mirror, July 23, 2007, (L/N Regaining the Golan Heights by peaceful means or by war is the only means of securing Syrian national legitimacy Any Syrian-Israel war would spread like wildfire. The Global News Wire – Asia Africa Intelligence Wire, July 11, 2007. L/N If a war comes in the near future, Syria could also count on Hamas to open yet another front against Israel from Gaza. The war will not be restrained, Israel Today July 17, 2007 http://www.israeltoday.co.il/default.aspx?tabid=178&nid=13461 confirmed that the army is preparing for a full-scale war with Syria in the very near future. constructive engagement solves quickly Gabriel Kolko March 30, 2007: http://www.counterpunch.org/kolko03302007.html /bgb A treaty could be finalized with Syria within four to six months Both Syria and Israel would love the plan. David Kimche, August 4, 2006 http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/2006/08/more-calls-to-engage-syria.htm Washington Monthly /bgb The Syrians would dearly like to mend their fences with the Americans and emerge from their present isolation. constructive engagement is the ONLY way to bring peace Sinderbrand, August 5, 2006 http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/2006/08/more-calls-to-engage-syria.htm Washington Monthly /bgb most EU governments believe the path to peace runs through Damascus Advantage 2: Iraq The war in Iraq continues due to insurgents entering Iraq through Syria. Raghavan 2007 (Washington Post, July 12, 2007, L/N) Bergner said al-Qaeda in Iraq was responsible for 80 to 90 percent of the suicide bombings collapse leads to civil war, Gitz 2007 Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, April 15, 2007, L/N) /cds we can identify at least three possible, overlapping scenarios for Iraq Engaging Syria is the key to solvency. David Ignatius, December 15, 2006 The Washington Post, L/N What positions would Syria take if it entered a dialogue with the United States about Iraq 3. Iraq Syria is the key to global anti-terrorism efforts. Matthew Levitt September 19, 2002, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=1538 /bgb Inducing Syria to abandon its support for terrorism Syria provides support for al-Qaeda Matthew Levitt, September 19, 2002, Washington Institute for Near East Policy senior fellow in terrorism studies, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=1538 /bgb Syrian support for terror undermines The result is global nuclear terrorism Charles D. Ferguson, March 2006, www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/NucTerrCSR.pdf /bgb The threat of a nuclear attack by terrorists has never been greater. Syria solves Ben Meir February 16, 2006 United Press International Outside View: A strategic choice L/N AL The Bush administration should instead persuade Syria 30 JMU LM Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India have all agreed to build the trans-Afghanistan pipeline and the Asian Development Bank has agreed to fund the project. Khaleej Times Online, August 8, 2007, www.khaleejtimes.com “The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has convened….30-years life of the project.” Project is currently stalled. Security guarantee key to trans-Afghan pipeline. Oil and Gas Journal, July 23, 2007 – Lexis. “A feasibility study by the….several years before the TAP.” The U.S. is already supportive. A special security force in Afghanistan is needed. Khaleej Times Online, August 8, 2007, www.khaleejtimes.com “The United States is supportive….for many years to come.” U.S. security training and assistance solves. Azerbaijan proves. Energy Bulletin, April 12, 2005 – http://www.energybulletin.net/6074.html “As for the oil pipeline….to defend the new pipeline.” Plan Plan: The United States Federal Government should constructively engage the government of Afghanistan to offer a security guarantee and foreign assistance to support the security efforts of the Trans-Afghanistan pipeline. The services of the United States Federal Government will be conditioned on the ability of Afghanistan to provide individuals who will become part of the pipeline protection force. Afghanistan Stability Coalition winning now. Fighters number less than a thousand and they can’t control territory. Constable (former bureau chief for Afghanistan, Washington Post) 2007 A Wake-Up Call in Afghanistan, Journal of Democracy, Volume 18, Number 2 April, p. 87-88. “The revived Taliban militia is….150 were international security forces.” Reconstruction efforts needed now to avoid wholesale defection to the Taliban by Afghan citizens. Christian Science Monitor, 2006 Time Running Out in Afghanistan, October 9, Lexis. “The top NATO commander in….decide to back the Taliban.” Failure to combat the Taliban message through economic improvement ensures Afghanistan will spiral out of control. Civil war will ensue and spillover igniting ethnic conflicts throughout central Asia and the Middle East. And if that’s not bad enough, global terrorism will follow. 31 Akbulut (International Strategic Research Organization) July 19, 2007 Isil, If Afghanistan Collapses, Turkish Weekly, www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=46931# “Considering the economic, military power….and come up with alternatives.” This regional instability results in humanitarian disasters, and nuclear war. Ahrari, 2001 (M. Ehsan, Professor of National Security and Strategy of the Joint and Combined Warfighting School at the Armed Forces Staff College, "Jihadi Groups, Nuclear Pakistan and the New Great Game," August) “South and Central Asia constitute….a gain for all concerned.” Specifically, Afghani instability spills over to Pakistan causing the overthrow of Musharraf. FEDOR 02 – Nixon Center Staff Member ( Gregory, "Afghanistan and Pakistan: Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full?," August 8, http://www.nixoncenter.org/Program%20Briefs/vol8no13Afghanistan.htm) “Paula Newberg emphasized that the….by elements of the ISI." Overthrow of Musharraf results in a nuclear terrorist attack against U.S. targets and a nuclear war against India over Kashmir conflict. Brookes 2k7 (Peter, sr. fellow @ the heritage foundation, August 2, pg. http://www.nypost.com/seven/08022007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/baracks_blunder_opedcolumnists_peter_brookes.htm?page=2) “The fall of Musharraf's government….targets, including the United States.” India would retaliate and full scale nuclear war would break-out with other nations being drawn in causing extinction. Helen Caldicott, Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, 2002 [The New Nuclear Danger, The New Press] “The use of Pakistani nuclear….of most life on earth.” And Pakistan keeps several nuclear warheads mated to delivery systems with command and control measures that could be penetrated by terrorists. ELLISON 07 – Researcher at the Center for Defense Information (Brian, “Pakistani Nuclear Arsenal,” April 30, http://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion/printversion.cfm?documentID=2966) “Pakistan is generally believed to….or anti-government groups, including terrorists.” Terrorist attack causes U.S. retaliation that kills millions Easterbrook 2K1 (Greg, November 1, pg. http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0111/01/gal.00.html) “Terrorists may not be held by….in a dozen Muslim countries.” Preventing nuclear terrorism should override all other concerns. Chesney in 97 (Robert, Loyola of Los Angeles International & Comparative Law Journal, November, LN) “The horrible truth is that….priority dominating other policy considerations.” Reconstruction key to prevent failed state that provides a safe-haven for terrorists who would be emboldened to stage another 32 9/11 style attack.. PETER BERGEN, February 15, 2007 [SENIOR FELLOW, Statement of Peter Bergen Senior Fellow New America Foundation Committee on House Foreign Affairs, Congressional Quarterly; LexisNexis] “2007 will likely be a….the United States and its allies.” Even a small terrorist attack will incite more globally. Ervin 2K6 (Clark Kent, Washington Post, May 7, LN) “To be sure, al-Qaeda has….here has been all but won.” A conventional terrorist attack will cause a massive economic downturn in the U.S. National Public Radio, March 11, 2005 – Lexis. “DIMSDALE: You know, there's a vigorous….as foreigners run for the exits.” Economic downturn causes nuclear war Chris Lewis, environmental historian, University of Colorado-Boulder, THE COMING AGE OF SCARCITY, 1998, p. 56. (MHDRG/D367) “Most critics would argue, probably….the collapse of global civilization.” The TAP will provide ten thousand jobs, hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue to shore up the Afghani economy and provide regional security through energy cooperation and be finished in four years. Haidari (First Secretary, Afghanistan Embassy in DC) 2004 Ashraf, No Security, No Trans-Afghan Pipeline, Afghan Magazine, July http://afghanmagazine.com/2004_07/articles/pipeline.shtml “Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Turkmen ….security through joint project ownership.” Creating jobs and the economy improves the lives of average Afghanis which decreases popularity and recruiting capabilities of the Taliban. Christian Science Monitor, March 27, 2007 Sappenfield, Entrepreneur Hopes to Bottle Success in Afghanistan, Lexis. “For all the focus on….smuggling, corruption, and small-time trade.” Serving as a bridge between the Middle East, Central and South Asia the TAP will create inter-regional economic ties that ensures sustainability of Afghan economy. Jalali (former Interior Minister of Afghanistan & Professor, National Defense University) 2006 Ali, The Future of Afghanistan, Parameters, Spring, p. 17. “Although disadvantaged by its landlocked….is the starting point.” 33 Kentucky CG Inherency US engagement with Syria has deteriorated – preventing us efforts of stopping terrorism and promoting Syrian Israeli peace. Lesch 07 “missed opportunites cooperation and confrontation in the US Syrian relationship” “these memories of cooperation….and its relationship with the united state.” Syria/Israel war advantage War inevitable in the status quo Nzaemroaya 2007 “The march to war: Syria preparing for US-Israelis attacks” “The 2006 Israeli war … and influence in the Middle East” Israel Syria war goes nuclear and chemical. Leser 2006 “Middle East conflict –Israel Syria and Iran header for non convention war likely to destroy all three plus Lebanon” “a few years ago…Middle East conflict has been getting.” Without US engagement, talks will fail Forward 2007 “Syria talks open, but may soon close,” “last week, Syria and Israel…government refused to endorse it.” US engagement is necessary to bring Syria and Israel to the table. Associate press 2006 “Syria wants cease fire within framework” “Syria, one of Hezbollah…its Syrian and Iranian backers” Muslim brotherhood Bush pursuit of regime change in Syria is bad will lead to a power vacuum. Meeks and Crutcher 2006 “ Syria: Reassessing US approach and options” “Syrian support to the ….radical Islam and terror” Bashar government is on the edge of collapse. Frisch 2005 “Syria under Bashar; Lebanon after Syrian withdrawal” “Dr. Hill Frisch: When you have…extricating himself from the situation” Collapse allows Muslim Brotherhood to take power. MA’Oz 2007 “Syria’s Role in the region” “Although he has…further destabilize the region” U.S. engagement is key to prevent a terrorist and Muslim Brotherhood coop. MA’Oz 2007 “Syria’s Role in the region” “A U.S. Israeli strategy …issue and perhaps also the Iraqi problem” Mpxs Scenario 1 Muslim brotherhood control will tank Saudi oil supplies resulting in global economic recession. Cole 2005 “A shia crescent: What fallout for the US” “Mr. Cole: If the United States destabilized …very dangerous to us all” Bearden 00 34 Scenario 2 Miscalculation in Syria causes instability in Lebanon. Meeks and crutcher, 2006. “Syria: Reassuring US approach and options” “Although the regime is clearly….as an impediment to Middle East peace” Instability in Lebanon will spill over into the entire world. Stuart 2006. “Discussion: Lebanon-the struggle continues” “Why is this important…and will be too much to stop” Axis US engagement is to prevent Syrian alliance Jerusalem post 07 “Follow Israel’s interests not Americas” “For the past for years…closure of the present opening” Axis makes terrorism possible. Amidror 2007. “The Hizbollah Syria Iran triangle” “In order to understand this….take use of the same assests” Attack on Israel will be inevitable Leyden 2006 “Hezbollah Iran Missiles Slam Hadera Israel – Nuclear war Approaching” “The only good thing about …who threaten to vaporize our children” Failure to engage will lead to terrorist attacks. Middle East Quarterly 2005 “The growing Syrian missile threat” “Less Even though international pressure…Washington and Damascus impossible” Biological terrorist attack most likely scenario for extinction Steinbrunner 1998 Foreign Policy Journal “The deceptively simple…but not necessarily its outer limit” US engagement solves the Syrian Iran axis. Perthes 2006 “the Syrian solution” “Meanwhile, Syria’s alliance with Iran…between 1991 and 2000” Plan The United States federal government should increase its constructive engagement with the Syrian Arab Republic by offering to return the United States ambassador to the United Staes embassy in the Syrian Arab Republic and by offering to no longer pursue regime change or any similar policies toward the Syrian Arab Republic, if Syria ceases all ties with Hizbollah. Solvency The plan would signal an end of US hostility Lesch 2007 “All of this has created … power of the Bush administration” Returning ambassador is key and will spill over into other areas. WP 2007 “How to manage Assad” “The American policy … it should act like one” Ending policy of regime change is vital to prevent coop. Kessler 2007 “When we meet with Syria, What should we hope to hear” “But the most important factor…border up until now” Constructive engagement is more effective than regime change. 35 Ben-meir 2005 “Syria another scapegoat” “for these reasons… stability in the foreseeable future” Handling of situation now will prove crucial Marshall 2007 “Engaging Syria” “Syria’s president Bashar…we’d be crazy not to” Pushing regime change will fail. Plan is key to ensure compliance. Ben-Meir 2007 “Back to the Debate on Syria” “For a number of years…Syria will not go away” Israel is afraid of regime change in Syria. Salhani 2007 “Rumors of war talk of peace” “This puts Israel…comparable to that of Iraq” Israel will like the plan. Jones 2006. “Expert discusses peace in Lebanon” “Regime change,…problem for Israel” Don’t listen to their non unique claims – recent strikes prove war now. BBC 2007 “Israeli air raid on Syria marks countdown for Iran war” “the countdown for …will be very narrow” 36 Kentucky AD Observation 1: Inherency Afghanistan receiving very few loans now—only 2% of demand is being met Rasmussen and Sinha, 2006 [Stephen, World Bank Lead Specialist for Finance and Private Sector—South Asia, and Sanjay, EDA Rural Systems Private, World Bank, "Microfinance in South Asia", December 2006, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOUTHASIAEXT/Resources/Publications/448813/fullreport.pdf , p. 2 ] [Although the microfinance...to 55 percent in Bangladesh.] The United States is not adequately supporting infrastructure development in Afghanistan Paramonov and Strokov, 2006 [Dr. Vladimir, and Dr. Alexey, Researchers, Institute of Strategic and Regional Studies, "The Economic Reconstruction of Afghanistan and the Role of Uzbekistan", Central Asia Series, Vol. 6, Report 22, http://www.defac.ac.uk/colleges/csrc/documentlistings/ca/06(22)VPEnglish.pdf , p. 1] [The USA expends...industry and agriculture] 2007 is the try or die year for Afghanistan stability—the nation is backsliding and the United States must act immediately or risk another Iraq PETER BERGEN, February 15, 2007 [SENIOR FELLOW, Statement of Peter Bergen Senior Fellow New America Foundation Committee on House Foreign Affairs, Congressional Quarterly; LexisNexis] [2007 will likely...more vibrant economy] Thus the Plan: The United States Federal Government, specifically the United States Agency for International Development, should constructively engage the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan by offering a substantial increase in its financial and technical support to Afghanistan's reconstruction efforts. The United States' support will be predicated on the Afghani government's continued support of the international reconstruction effort. Specifically, we: 1. Provide an additional $205 million in support to the Microfinance Investment Support Facility for Afghanistan 2. Provide an additional $4 billion in support of road, electric, and irrigation systems construction. 3. All funds are to be targeted to reconstruction and microfinance efforts in rural areas Observation II: The Taliban and Reconstruction The war will be won or lost in rural areas: However, lack of reconstruction efforts in rural areas is shattering local confidence in the government, thus helping the Taliban win popular support and positioning the organization as an alternative to the Karzai government. Jones 2k7 (Seth G., January 31, pg. http://www.rand.org/commentary/013107IHT.html) [The rising violence...of the insurgency] Infrastructure development defeats the Taliban A.) It enables effective US military action Bowers, 2004 37 [William J., Major, US Marine Corps, "Operational Infrastructure Development: A Critical Factor in the Global War on Terrorism", US Naval War College, http://stinet.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA422825 , p. 12-13] [Second, operational infrastructure...potentially decisive impact] b.) Local Inhabitants force Taliban and other extremists out of areas with reconstruction projects because they trust the government and value the development Collins, 2007 [Tom, Colonel, United States Army, Spokesperson, International Security Assistance Force, Interview, "Afghanistan, The Other War", Frontline, 4/10/2007, http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/afghanistan604/interview_collins.html] [Well we see...to take time] And, Microfinance gives ex-militants and returnees an alternative to conflict, offering business and trade as an alternative to violence Marino, 2005 [Pascal, Program Manager, The Foundation for Development Cooperation, Australia, "Beyond Economic Benefits: The contribution of microfinance to postconflict recovery in Asia and the Pacific.", Feb. 2005, http://www.fdc.org.au/Files/Microfinance/Microfinance%20and%20conflict%20in%20Asia%20and%20the%20Pacific.pdf , p. 2] [Microfinance can encourage...to do so] Instability in Afghanistan risks exposure of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal to terrorist groups Ellison 07 – Researcher at the Center for Defense Information (Brian, "Pakistani Nuclear Arsenal," April 30, http://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion/printversion.cfm?documentID=2966) [Pakistan is generally...Nuclear Command Authority.] *ALEXANDER IN 03* Observation III: Karzai and Regional Stability Despite being in a central location for Russia, China, and Iran—all of these nations have wavering interest in the region. Thus, a power-vacuum has emerged, and the United States is the only nation that can fill the void Cornell, 2004 [Svante E., Research Director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, Associate Professor (Docent) in Eurasian Studies at Uppsala University and Assistant Research Professor at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, "The United States and Central Asia: In the Steppes to Stay?, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Volume 17, Number 2, July 2004, p. 239-254, p.242-243] [Regional politics remain...their foreign relations] Karzai, and most Afghans support the construction of permanent US bases—if America is able to successfully able to help rebuild Afghanistan Synovitz, 2005 [Ron, Journalist, covers Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq as well as economic transition and human rights issues, "Afghanistan: Tribal Leaders Back Karzai's U.S. Strategic Partnership", Radio Free Europe, May 9th, 2005, http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/5/BE830B0C-EAEA-4E82-963B-019662671841.html] [The other issue...the tribal leaders] Reconstruction of Afghanistan's infrastructure spurs regional cooperation with other Central Asian States Cornell, 2004 [Svante E., Research Director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, Associate Professor (Docent) in Eurasian Studies at Uppsala University and Assistant Research Professor at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, "The United States and Central Asia: In the Steppes to Stay?, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Volume 17, Number 2, July 2004, p. 239-254, p.242-248-49] [Stemming Central Asia's...of Islamic radicalism.] Central Asia is both a vital and necessary to US security Cornell, 2004 [Svante E., Research Director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, Associate Professor (Docent) in Eurasian Studies at Uppsala University and Assistant Research Professor at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of 38 Advanced International Studies, "The United States and Central Asia: In the Steppes to Stay?, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Volume 17, Number 2, July 2004, p. 239-254, p.240] [This article will...Asia to stay.] Central Asia is the most likely scenario for global nuclear war Blank 2k (Stephen, June, pg. http://www.milnet.com/pentagon/Russia-2000-assessment-SSI.pdf) [In 1993, Moscow...settling the situation] Observation Four: Women's Rights Women's rights in Afghanistan do not exist- it is one of the most patriarchal societies that exist today Emandi 2k2 – [development consultant, Phd, Woodrow Wilson Center Fellow-2002 (Hafizullah, "Repression, Resistance and Women in Afghanistan" p.30) [The patriarchal society...do not gossip] Microfinance empowers women by giving them public visibility and status as entrepreneurs in the community Cheston and Kuhn, 2002 [Susy, Senior Vice President, Policy and Research, Opportunity International, and Executive Director Emeritus of the Women's Opportunity Fund, and Lisa, Program Analyst, Opportunity International, "Empowering Women through Microfinance", UNIFEM, http://www.microcreditsummit.org/papers/empowerment.pdf, p. 22] [Several microfinance and...income generating activities.] Microfinance reduces violence against women Cheston and Kuhn, 2002 [Susy, Senior Vice President, Policy and Research, Opportunity International, and Executive Director Emeritus of the Women's Opportunity Fund, and Lisa, Program Analyst, Opportunity International, "Empowering Women through Microfinance", UNIFEM, http://www.microcreditsummit.org/papers/empowerment.pdf, p. 21] [Hashemi et. al...also be significant] Microfinance implicitly and explicitly empowers women by giving them the material, human, and social resources to take control of their lives Cheston and Kuhn, 2002 [Susy, Senior Vice President, Policy and Research, Opportunity International, and Executive Director Emeritus of the Women's Opportunity Fund, and Lisa, Program Analyst, Opportunity International, "Empowering Women through Microfinance", UNIFEM, http://www.microcreditsummit.org/papers/empowerment.pdf , p. 12] [One loan officer...of some businesses.] Nations with Low Gender Inequality are 2.7 (.5/.182) times less likely to solve internal and external conflicts violently Dworkin and Schipini, 07 [Terry M., Dean, Office of Women's Affairs, Jack R. Wentworth Professor of Business Law, Indiana University, and Cindy A., Merwin H. Waterman Collegiate Professor of Business Administration, Professor of Business Law and Chair, Law, History & Communication, University of Michigan, "Linking Gender Equity to Peaceful Societies", 44 Am. Bus. L.J. 391, p. 395-398, Lexis] [For purposes of...group, twenty-six.] Violence is intertwined- gendered violence acts as a catalyst for other types for genocide and ethnic cleansing Amnesty International 98 (October 1, pg. http://news.amnesty.org/library/Index/ENGACT310061998?open&of=ENG-347) [These human rights...most terrible consequences] Violence against women makes all forms of violence possible- including nuclear war New York Times 83 (December 29, LN) 39 [The Citizens Party...habit of mind] Observation V: Solvency Only the development of a successful infrastructure can defeat the Taliban Bergen, 2007 [Peter, Journalist and Senior Fellow, New America Foundation, "The Taliban, Regrouped and Rearmed", The Washington Post, September 10, 2006, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/08/AR2006090801614_pf.html] [Echoing all other...the Taliban regime] Effective finance institutions in rural areas require parallel efforts in road construction and agricultural development Zia, 2005 [Mohammed Ehsan, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation & Development, Afghanistan, "RURAL FINANCE IN AFGHANISTAN AND THE CHALLENGE OF THE OPIUM ECONOMY, Report on a Two-day Workshop, Kabul, Afghanistan, December 13-14, 2004, http://go.worldbank.org/D0NIDP9DG0__ p. 19] [Discussions at the...this to develop.] Microfinance Effective: MISFA, the agency employed by the plan, has a phenomenal track record in Afghanistan US Department of Commerce, 2007 ["Guide to SME Finance Sources in Afghanistan, http://www.export.gov/afghanistan/pdf/afghan_sme_finance.pdf__ , April 2007, p. 7] [The Microfinance Investment...their fifth year] USAID Best—its collaborative nature with indigenous and international organizations is beneficial for a few reasons 1. Attracts additional funding and expertise from partner organizations involved in USAID projects 2. Participation with local partners ensures that the aid given is both wanted and effectively targeted Natsios, 2005 [Andrew S., Lieutenant Colonel, USAR Ret., Former Director, Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, "The Nine Principles of Reconstruction and Development", Parameters, Autumn 2005, pp. 4-20, http://carlislewww.army.mil/usawc/parameters/05autumn/natsios.htm__ , p. 14-16] [The partnership principle...likelihood of success.] Microfinance is the best way to lay the foundations for economic growth in rural Afghanistan Fakiri 2k4 Katrin, July, pg. http://www.uncdf.org/english/microfinance/pubs/newsletter/pages/july_2004/featured_guest4.php) [Increase Micro Entrepreneurs... for economic growth.]_ 40 Mary Washington JR Advantage I – Taliban Resurgence Status quo counter-narcotics policies in Afghanistan are failing causing Afghani instability and allowing Taliban resurgence The SENLIS Council, International Think Tank, June 2007, "Poppy for Medicine Licensing poppy for the production of essential medicines: an integrated counter-narcotics, development, and counter-insurgency model for Afghanistan," http://www.senliscouncil.net /documents/poppy_medicine _technical_dossier Afghanistan faces … cannot be resolved . Specifically, current eradication policy are failing – it only serves to undermine Karzai and fuel instability Vanda Felbab-Brown, Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Fellow and MIT Political Science PH.D. Candidate, Fall 2005, "Afghanistan: When Counternarcotics Undermines Counterterrorism," The Washington Quarterly 28:4 p. 55-72 In the summer of 2004, under … an impotent U.S. stooge. The impact to Taliban resurgence is global conflict drawing in foreign powers SENLIS Afghansitan, International Think Tank located in Afghanistan, March 2007, "On a Knife Edge: Rapid Assessment Field Survey Southern and Eastern Afghanistan," http://www.senliscouncil.net /documents/Knife_Edge_Report In light of the recent …a stand in Kabul. Advantage II – Central Asian Stability Afghan opium production destabilizes Central Asia – terrorism, public health crisis and corruption SVANTE E. CORNELL and NIKLAS L. P. SWANSTRÖM, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies Central Asia–Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program research directors and program directors and Uppsala UniversityDepartment of Eurasian Studies, July/August 2006, "The Eurasian Drug Trade: A Challenge to Regional Security," http://www.silkroadstudies.org /new/docs/publications/2006 /0608Eurasiandrugtrade.pdf The year 2004 signified … public health crisis. And US success in Afghanistan is key to US power projection and maintaining Eurasian and Central Asian stability Stephen J. Blank, ph.d., Strategic Studies Institute post-soviet world expert, Assistant Soviet Studies Professor Maxwell Air Force Base, Texas Univesrity Professor, July 2005, "AFTER TWO WARS: REFLECTIONS ON THE AMERICAN STRATEGIC REVOLUTION IN CENTRAL ASIA," http://www.strategicstudiesinst itute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB614 .pdf Four linked strategic lessons … NATO partners in Afghanistan.15 And, Central Asian instability is the most likely scenario for nuclear war Blank, Strategic Studies Institute former Soviet states expert, 2000 [Stephen, "U.S. Military Engagement with Transcaucasia and Central Asia," http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/docs /Blank2000.pdf, pg. 24-5] In 1993 Moscow even … everywhere else. 41 Further, Central Asian power projection is critical to US hegemony Stephen J. Blank, ph.d., Strategic Studies Institute post-soviet world expert, Assistant Soviet Studies Professor Maxwell Air Force Base, Texas Univesrity Professor, July 2005, "AFTER TWO WARS: REFLECTIONS ON THE AMERICAN STRATEGIC REVOLUTION IN CENTRAL ASIA," http://www.strategicstudiesinst itute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB614 .pdf Given this transformation … partners if they are available. US leadership solves global nuclear war Zalmay Khalilzad, policy analyst at RAND, The Washington Quarterly, Spring '95 Under the third option, … stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system. Advantage Three - Terrorism Opium production sustains and makes terrorism effective, causing state failure spillover and destroys counter-terror efforts SVANTE E. CORNELL and NIKLAS L. P. SWANSTRÖM, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies Central Asia–Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program research directors and program directors and Uppsala UniversityDepartment of Eurasian Studies, July/August 2006, "The Eurasian Drug Trade: A Challenge to Regional Security," http://www.silkroadstudies.org /new/docs/publications/2006 /0608Eurasiandrugtrade.pdf Military Security: The Role … clearest example of this.34 Afghanistan opium industry sustains warlords Vanda Felbab-Brown, Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Fellow and MIT Political Science PH.D. Candidate, Fall 2005, "Afghanistan: When Counternarcotics Undermines Counterterrorism," The Washington Quarterly 28:4 p. 55-72 The opium poppy … national levels. AND Afghan warlords sustain instability and international terrorism Kimberly Marten, Columbia University Political Science Professor, 2007, "Warlordism in Comparative Perspective," International Security 31.3 (2007) 41-73 Warlords and International … to their neighbor for military assistance. Terrorism risks world war and extinction- even if it doesn't work Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, Al-Ahram Weekly political analyst, '04 [Al-Ahram Weekly, "Extinction!" 8/26, no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg /2004/705/op5.htm] What would be the … will all be losers. Thus the Plan: 42 The United States Federal Government should increase its constructive engagement with Afghanistan, substantially increasing its foreign assistance by supporting a liscencing program, in collaboration with the Afghani government, for the production of medical drugs derived from the poppy plant. Contention II - Solvency A poppies for medicine project would solve Afghan stability entrenching rule of law and switching loyalties back to the government The SENLIS Council, International Think Tank, June 2007, "Poppy for Medicine Licensing poppy for the production of essential medicines: an integrated counter-narcotics, development, and counter-insurgency model for Afghanistan," http://www.senliscouncil.net /documents/poppy_medicine _technical_dossier Integration of local … control of rural Afghanistan. A poppies for medicine approach solves economic diversification critical to long-term stability The SENLIS Council, International Think Tank, June 2007, "Poppy for Medicine Licensing poppy for the production of essential medicines: an integrated counter-narcotics, development, and counter-insurgency model for Afghanistan," http://www.senliscouncil.net /documents/poppy_medicine _technical_dossier A diversified local … and to repay their debt. Poppies for medicine solves illicit opium production (no risk of diversion) – it provides economic and security incentives for farmers, creates sustainable revenue and economic diversification ensuring long-term stability and opium phase out The SENLIS Council, International Think Tank, June 2007, "Poppy for Medicine Licensing poppy for the production of essential medicines: an integrated counter-narcotics, development, and counter-insurgency model for Afghanistan," http://www.senliscouncil.net /documents/poppy_medicine _technical_dossier The local production … of poppy cultivation. The market exists for licit opium – unaccounted for third world and domestic markets solve Peter van Ham, The Hague Clingendael Institute global governance research director and College of Europe professor and Jorrit Kamminga Kabul Senlis Council policy research head, Winter 2006/2007, "Poppies for Peace: Reforming Afghanistan's Opium Industry," The Washington Quarterly 30.1 (2006) 69-81 Aside from sharing … preferential trade agreement if necessary. Poppies for peace is the best way to attack cultural imperialism – it empowers the local, respecting cultural traditions and Afghan society Peter van Ham, The Hague Clingendael Institute global governance research director and College of Europe professor and Jorrit Kamminga Kabul Senlis Council policy research head, Winter 2006/2007, "Poppies for Peace: Reforming Afghanistan's Opium Industry," The Washington Quarterly 30.1 (2006) 69-81 The poppy licensing … convince farmers to abandon poppy cultivation. State based politics is critical in the context of Afghanistan – the alternative results in mass violence and suffering functionally handing over local populations to oppressive warlords Kimberly Marten, Columbia University Political Science Professor, 2007, "Warlordism in Comparative Perspective," International Security 31.3 (2007) 41-73 Decades of civil strife … that now plague them. 2AC: Permuted LOST DA 43 Richmond DF At Liberty: The gov is uniquely positioned in an oppositional context with the US, is Iran. The gov of the US and Iran have long standing animosity based on purely symbolic opposition – in other words, constructive engagement and its focus are discursive – based on adv. Precisely because the structural differences are irresolveable we should not escape to blind fiat for rectification but merge our attempts at ending dehum and engaging the Other. Beeman 03 (Iran and the United States, Anthropological Quarterly “After World War II ….by their representative national leaders” PLAN USFG should increase its constructive engagement with the government of Iran by halting any encouragement of “velvet revolution’ in Iran, and it should include offering an elimination of preemptive action against them on the condition of acceptance and recognition of US de-escalation. Potential politics We are in a new era, marked by the reaction to the specter of the potential. The politics of preemption under the bush doctrine has become an ontological fan for smoking out the terrorist. This is not an empty theoretical gesture toward ontological violence rather the logic of indeterminate potentiality literally compels us to constantly identify the unknowable threats to the ordered polity. Real violence is visited upon the alterity who must be eliminate lest they threaten the constitution of the ordered Western world. Massumi, ph d prof of communication 2007 “Potential politics and the primacy of preemption,” theory and event 10.2 “Preemption shares many characteristics ….its necessary condition of balancing polarity no longer obtains.” The shadow of the preemption doctrine has befallen Iran. WE are compelled to attack Iran not because they possess nuke weapons not because it maintains a constant threat to the US, rather we are compelled to strike Iran because it will have been a potential threat to the United States. We must resist striking we must resist the logic of preemption even in the face of potential catastrophe. Massumi, ph d prof of communication 2007 “Potential politics and the primacy of preemption,” theory and event 10.2 “Asymmetrical warfare has come out…Are we “fat and happy” yet? Until them…” This dehumanization and refusal to compromise resides in a deep fear of the other creating resentment, driving us to eeliminate anything that in not domestic. This cycle of violence is repeated endlessly because there is always another danger lurking around the corner. Der Derian, 1998 The Political Subject of Violence p 101-105 “Conventions of security act to suppress… mistrust and evil experiences” Our plan functions as a demand against Bush’s mimetic hared of the Iranian regime. Constructive engagement short circuits the self – enemy distinction that enables animosity in the first place. Der Derian 2002 War as a Game in the brown journal of world affairs “The charge of moral equivalency…if the world were prefect it wouldn’t be.” Moreover representation do effect constructive engagement and they are a location for possible intervention. Rediehs, 2002. “Collateral Language: A User’s guide to America’s new war” New York University press “It is crucial to recognize that….and reconcile our differences.” Elsewhere: Text: The USFg should increase its constructive engagement with the government of Syria by normalizing its relation with the Syrian government in the event that Syria pursues bilateral talks with the United States on Iraqi stability and it should include offering them a 44 security guarantee that the United States will not seek regime change. Adv. 1 = Iraq - regime change - Asad interferes in Iraq (Leverett 2005) - this = tons of deaths in Iraq (Boot 2005) Adv. 2 = Exceptionalism - Bush Doctrine = exceptionalist (Wheeler 2005) - this = biopower and SOE (Dochterman 2002) 45 Richmond KL contention one is the status quo: us engagement and cooperation with syria has deteriorated- preventing us efforts of stopping terrorism and promoting syrian israeli peace lesch 2007 [David, Professor of Middle East history @ Trinity University in Texas, “Missed Opportunities Cooperation and Confrontation in the U.S.-Syrian Relationship,” A Century Foundation Report, August, Aj] < These moments of… the United States.> and, us hard-line stance on syria in the status quo is ineffective and incentivizes syrian rebellion- only cooperation prevents the looming stalemate masloski 2006 [Andrew, Research Assistant, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Should The United States Engage Syria?” Saban Center for Middle East Policy, November http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/abdulhamidmemo20061117.htm, Aj] <Second, the United States… for the Levant.> advantage one is the israeli syrian war: initially note that an israeli syrian war is inevitable in the status quo due to strained relations and growing tensions nazemroaya 2007 [Mahdi, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization and author of several Middle East articles, “The March to War: Syria Preparing for US-Israeli Attacks,” May, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5748, Aj] <The 2006 Israeli… in the Middle East.> and an israeli syrian war would escalate to chemical and nucle ar war leser 2006 [Steven, specialist in Politics, Science & Health, and Entertainment topics, “Middle East Conflict - Israel, Syria and Iran Headed for Non-Conventional War likely to Destroy all Three plus Lebanon,” July, Aj] < A few years ago… has been getting> fortunately, syria and israel want engagement with each other—but talks will fail without us involvement the forward 2007 [No author given, “Syria Talks Open, But May Soon Close,” July 27, 2007, pg. lexis, Gautam] < Last week, Syria… to endorse it> us engagement with syria is necessary to bring syria and israel to the table, preventing a syrian-israeli war associated press 2006 [Aji, “Syria Wants Cease-Fire Within Framework,” July, Lexis, Aj] < Syria, one of… and Iranian backers> 46 advantage two is hegemony—we’ll isolate two scenarios: scenrio a. regime change: push for regime change has manifested itself in hardline policy – this will cause a power vacuum and middle eastern instability meeks and crutcher 2006 [Robert W and Michael H, March 15th, 2006, “SYRIA: REASSESSING U.S. APPROACH AND OPTIONS,” USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT, full article at: Gautam] < Syrian support to… Islam and terror> bashar’s government is on the edge—an increase in us pressure will collapse the bashar government frisch 2005 [Dr. Hillel Frisch is a Senior Research Associate at the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, “SYRIA UNDER BASHAR; LEBANON AFTER SYRIAN WITHDRAWAL,” March 2005, full article at: http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:ar1nGZK8zZ0J:meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2005/issue2/roundtable%2520%2520pdf.pdf+%E2%80 %9CSyria+under+bashar:+Lebanon+after+Syrian+withdrawal%E2%80%9D&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us, Gautam] < Dr. Hillel Frisch… from the situation> collapse of bashar’s regime allows the muslim brotherhood to seize power- endangering american interests and destabilizing the region ma’oz 2007 [Moshe, Professor emeritus of Islamic and Middle Eastern studies @ Hebrew University, “Syria’s Role in the Region: Mediator, Peacemaker, or Aggressor?” Century Foundation, copy righted date, Aj] <Although he has… destabilize the region.> us engagement with syria is key to solve terrorism and prevent muslim brotherhood coup ma’oz 2007 [Moshe, Professor emeritus of Islamic and Middle Eastern studies @ Hebrew University, “Syria’s Role in the Region: Mediator, Peacemaker, or Aggressor?” Century Foundation, copy righted date, Aj] <A U.S.-Israeli… the Iraqi problem> scenario b is the syrian/russian alliance: initially note that russia is trying to gain foothold in syria to challenge us hegemony and push america out of the middle east the guardian 2007 [Risdall, Staff Writer, “Russia seeks its place in the sun,” August, http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,,2150656,00.html#article_continue, Aj] < The declaration earlier…and global leadership> and, pressure on syria cements a syrian/russian axis- eroding us power projection in the middle east kabalan 2007 [Dr. Marwan, a lecturer in media and international relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media @ University of Syria, “Can Syria 47 benefit from US-Russia schism?” Gulf News, August, Aj] < Russian-Syrian cooperation… turbulent world politics> loss of us preponderance in the persian gulf causes a power vacuum and war khalilzad 1995 [Zalmay, Khalilzad, Analyst for RAND and CSIS, 1995 Washington Quarterly, Lexis] < In the Persian… would be harmed> finally, us hegemony is critical to prevent nuclear war khalilzad 1995 [Zalmay,Khalilzad, Analyst for RAND and CSIS, 1995 Washington Quarterly, Lexis] <Finally, U.S…. of power system> advantage three is hizbullah: first, us engagement of syria de facto removes syria from the terrorist list ma’oz 2005 [Moshe, Professor of Islamic and Middle Eastern studies @ Hebrew University of Jerusalem where he has specialized on Syria, Palestine, and Arab-Israel relations, “Washington and Damascus: Between Confrontation and Cooperation,” United States Institute of Peace, August, http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr146.html#about, Aj] < For Washington, rapprochement… Syrian-Israeli peace settlement> second, us removal of syria from the terrorist list is essential to reinvirorate the syrian economy and prevent syria from sponsoring terrorism leverett 2003 [Flynt, Visiting Fellow @ Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “How to Get Syria Out of the Terrorism Business,” New York Times, http://brookings.edu/views/op-ed/fellows/leverett20030504.htm, Aj] < The military victory… impressive diplomatic accomplishments.> a biological attack is the most likely scenario for extinction steinbrunner 1998 [John Steinbrunner, Senior Fellow at Brookings, 1998, Foreign Policy Winter 1998, Pg. 85, Gautam] < That deceptively simple… its outer limit> PLAN: The united states federal government should increase its constructive engagement with syria by returning the united states ambassador to syria to the united states embassy in syria and increase its foreign assistance by removing syria from the export administration act, if syria ceases all ties with hizbullah. contention two is sovlency: 48 us reinstatement of the ambassador to syria is necessary to revitalize us-syria cooperation by signaling the end of us hostility and creating the framework for syrian-israeli cooperation lesch 2007 [David, Professor of Middle East history @ Trinity University in Texas, “Missed Opportunities Cooperation and Confrontation in the U.S.-Syrian Relationship,” A Century Foundation Report, August, Aj] < All of this has… the Bush administration.> returning the us ambassador is key to us-syrian cooperation- spills over into broader issues washington post 2007 [Alterman, Staff writer, “How to Manage Assad,” July, Lexis, Aj] <The American policy… act like one.> constructive engagement with syria is more effective than isolation and prevents engulfing the middle east into war ben-meir 2005 [Alon, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Studies @ NYU and Middle East Project Director at the World Policy Institute, “Syria Another Scapegoat?” November, Lexis, Aj] <For these reasons… the foreseeable future.> us diplomatic relations with syria and removing them from the terror list incentivizes them to cut of ties with terrorist organization and provide a framework for Syrian-Israeli peace ben-meir 2003 [Dr. Alon, Middle East Director of the World Policy Institute @ the New School for Social Research and professor of International Relations and Middle-Eastern studies @ the Center for Global Studies at NYU, “Will Syria Be Next?” April, http://www.alonbenmeir.com/articles/read/id/127, Aj] <A far more… Middle East stability.> finally, removing syria from the terror list is a necessary precondition for us-syrian cooperation ma’oz 2007 [Moshe, Professor emeritus of Islamic and Middle Eastern studies @ Hebrew University, “Syria’s Role in the Region: Mediator, Peacemaker, or Aggressor?” Century Foundation, copy righted date, Aj] <As indicated above… Act of 2003.> 49 Samford GR Plan Text The Plan: The United States Federal Government should increase its constructive engagement with the government of Afghanistan by offering to end eradication and provide all necessary foreign assistance for poppy licensing projects if the government of Afghanistan establishes a licensing program for legal medical poppy cultivation. 1ac w/ cites Observation One is Inherency In the status quo, US-lead eradication teams in Afghanistan have expanded their campaigns – driving the hearts and minds further away from the War on Terror Senlis Council ‘06 (The last article cited in the text of the document was written 8/06 and there wasn’t a date for the pdf, “Opium Poppy Eradication in Afghanistan: Ill-Conceived Policy Undermines Support for Karzai and Exacerbates Poverty”, www.senliscouncil.net/documents/HM_c5) The international community…illegitimate power-holders. Advantage One is the War on Drugs The War on Drugs has expanded to Afghanistan – Plan Colombia-type policies have leaked into the countryside BBC Monitoring International Reports 3/17/07 [“AFGHAN DAILY URGES EMULATION OF COLOMBIA'S COUNTERNARCOTICS STRATEGY,” L/N] Weakening the international…drugs in Colombia. And, the War on Drugs is a key location for the territorial construction of race that produces status differences and justifies the stripping away of rights Jabaily ’05, J.D., Georgetown University Law Center [Annalisa A., “ARTICLE: SHIPS PASSING IN THE NIGHT: MAPPING THE TRADE ROUTES BETWEEN THE WAR ON DRUGS AND THE WAR ON TERROR,” Temple Political & Civil Rights Law Review, Fall, L/N] Both the War…is "territorially constructed." We have a duty to examine institutions of racism – each chip is key Sandy ’03 [Kathleen R., “COMMENTARY: The Discrimination Inherent in America's Drug War: Hidden Racism Revealed by Examining the Hysteria over Crack,” Alabama Law Review, Fall, L/N] Racism hides throughout…the system itself. It’s necessary to tear down the walls of racism – you should reject it at every opportunity Barndt ’99 (Joseph, Dismantling Racism) To study racism…walls of racism. 50 Advantage Two is Eradication Despite eradication, Afghanistan is a sole supplier for opium Lee ’07 (Mathew, “Afghanistan Poppy Cultivation Skyrockets”, 8/4, washingtonpost.com) Afghanistan is providing were "not realistic." Scenario A is India/Pakistan The drug trade is a heart of Afghanistan’s failure – eliminating the illegal drug culture is necessary to prevent Afghanistan from being a failed state Misra ’03 (Dr. S.S, fellow with the Nehru Memorial Museum and Library at New Delhi, “Failed State Syndrome”, Asian Affairs, August, http://www.asianaffairs.com/august2003/afghanistan.htm__)__ Broadly, Afghanistan continues…a narco-state. The fate of Afghanistan and Pakistan are intimately linked – terrorists will precipitate nuclear wars with India Larson ’07 (David, contributing editor and columnist for The American Conservative and PhD student at Univ. of Chicago, “Krauthammer on Iraq: A Foreign Policy Only Someone From Another Planet Could Understand”, 3/30, http://larison.org/2007/03/30/krauthammer-on-iraq-a-foreign-policy-only-someone-from-another-planet-could-understand/__)__ If you were…already knew this. Indo-Pak war risks extinction Duffy ’04 (accessed at: http://www.ccds.charlotte.nc.us/History/India/03/duffy/duffy.htm__)__ All of this…developed nuclear weapons. Scenario B is Afghanistan Eradication is failing – they’ve driven the country into the arms of the Taliban Kendall and Macdonald ’07 (Raymond, former Secretary General of Interpol, and Norine, Founding President of the Senlis Council, “Winning with opium in Afghanistan”, 7/15, http://www.dailytimes.com .pk) Despite considerable effort…and stable Afghanistan. But, the issue is economics – eradication forces farmers to turn to the Taliban to have income Glenny ’07 (Misha, “The Lost War”, 8/19, L/N) In the past…the "war on terror." And, insurgent groups in Afghanistan remain the greatest risk for stability Jones ’06 (Seth G, political scientist at RAND Corporation and Adjunct Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown, “Securing Tyrants or Fostering Reform?”, rand.org) The Taliban and for the Taliban. 51 An unstable Afghanistan turns the nation into a “Field of Terror” Borda ’03 (Andrew, “Afghanistan: Instability Reigns in War-Ravaged Nation”, 10/4-16, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2003/10/wwwh31016.htm__)__ Afghanistan: An emerging…for continued violence. Terrorism will cause extinction Alexander ’03 (Yonah, Washington Times, 8/23, L/N) Last week's brutal…global security concerns. Furthermore, eradication strategies are locking the country into poverty – precluding security Senlis Afghanistan ’07 (“On A Knife Edge: Rapid Assessment Field Survey Southern and Eastern Afghanistan”, March, http://www.senliscouncil.net/documents/Knife_Edge_Report__)__ Current counter-narcotics…increase as a result. Poverty kills as many as any nuclear war – it’s effect rival an nuclear war between the US and Russia Gilligan ’00 (James, Department of Psychiatry at Harvard, Violence: Our Reflections on Our Deadliest Epidemic, p. 95-96) The 14 to 18 million…throughout the world. Observation Two is Solvency Licensing systems for poppy cultivate provide farmers with a sustainable and competitive income – breaking the Taliban’s lock on the hearts and minds Bhattacharji ’07 (Romesh, former narcotics commissioner of India, “India’s experiences in licensing poppy cultivation for the production of essential medicines – lessons for Afghanistan”, June, http: www.senliscouncil.net/modules/publications/021_publication/documents/india_case_study) From a drug crop…such as morphine Bottom up approaches to licensing schemes are key – reforming the perception of the government is the most effective way to solve Spivack ’05 (David, visiting research professor at the British Institute of International and Comparative Law, “Feasability Study on Opium Licensing in Afghanistan for the Production of Morphine and Other Essential Medicines: Executive Summary”, Senlis Councile, September, http://www.senliscouncil.net/modules/publications/008_publication/documents/Feasibility_Study__)__ A ‘bottom-up’ implementation…development of Afghanistan. Poppy licensing systems are key to reverse public support away from the Taliban – secure the means to reconstruct Afghanistan and fight terrorism 52 Kendall and Macdonald ’07 (Raymond, former Secretary General of Interpol, and Norine, Founding President of the Senlis Council, “Winning with opium in Afghanistan”, 7/15, http://www.dailytimes.com .pk) But a successful…with the insurgency. Status quo resistance to the plan is a result of US pressure for eradication – the plan reverses that pressure and encourages Karzai to accept Andersson ’06 (Camilla, Department of Economics at Umea University, “Impact Assessment of Crop Eradication in Afghanistan and Lessons Learned from Latin America and South East Asia”, Kabul International Winter Symposium on Drug Policy, www.senliscouncil.net) Nevertheless, Karzai seems…stemmed the tide. Karzai’s on board – he’ll approve the plan Robichaud ’07 (Carl, program officer at the Century Foundation, “Bush and Karzai Show Signs of Divergence on Key Issues”, 8/16, http://www.tcf.org/list.asp?type=NC&pubid=1660__)__ As we have…Karzai has to say. A licensing system integrates rural communities into a legal Afghan economy – shoring up compliance Green Party of Canada ’07 (“A closer look at the Senlis Council’s proposed Poppy for Medicine projects in Afghanistan”, August, http://www.greenparty.ca/en/policy/documents/P4M__)__ The crux of…need for morphine. Finally, acknowledging the racism inherent in the war on drugs is the first step towards removing that structure. There is not a nonracist justification for continuing our current anti-drug measures. Sandy ’03 [Kathleen R., “COMMENTARY: The Discrimination Inherent in America's Drug War: Hidden Racism Revealed by Examining the Hysteria over Crack,” Alabama Law Review, Fall, L/N] Whenever racism is…than under prohibition. 53 Wake Forest MS Contention One is InherencyFirst, new U.S. assistance to Afghanistan is insufficient --- ‘bare bones’ funding approaches guarantee escalating instability Colucci ‘07 (Craig, Captain – U.S. Army, Military Review, 5-1, www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-163680156.html) Second, current funding for crop-substitution isn’t enough and eradication strategies are counter-productive. IRIN in 2007 [Integrated Regional Information Networks, “Fighting a Losing Battle Against Opium Production,” March 5, http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=70511] Contention Two is U.S. CredibilityFirst, Afghanistan is a test case for U.S. leadership --- robust assistance key to overall credibility RI ‘02 (Refugee International, 1-10, http://www.refugeesinternational.org/content/article/detail/1337/) Second, Perception --- under-investment is creating a belief that Afghanistan isn’t a priority for the U.S. --- risks complete state collapse and massive violence Rubin ‘07 (Barnett R., Senior Fellow at Center for Int’l Cooperation – NYU, “Salvaging Afghanistan”, 3-1, http://armedservices.senate.gov/statemnt/2007/March/Rubin%2003-01-07.pdf) Third, Afghani failure crushes U.S. global leadership. Wisner ‘03 (Frank III, Co-Chair – Independent Study Group Report on Afghanistan, CFR, 6-23, http://www.cfr.org/publication.html?id=6069) Engaging Afghanistan key to U.S. leadership --- solves global WMD conflicts Obama ‘07 (Barack, Presidential Candidate, D-Il, Foreign Affairs, July/August, Lexis) This credibility is critical to sustainable U.S. leadership- only way to prevent the escalation of global conflict. Nye ‘96 (Joseph S., Jr., dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Winter, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. 1, “Conflicts after the Cold War”) Global nuclear war Khalilzad ‘95 (Zalmay, RAND Corporation, Losing The Moment? Washington Quarterly, Vol 18, No 2, p. 84) Contention Three is PovertyFirst, the current strategy of eradication devastates already poor farming families. Crop substitution is vital to ensure alternative livelihoods. ICG in 2005 [International Crisis Group, “Letter to Rice- Afghanistan,” 54 http://www.opensocietypolicycenter.org/pub/doc_57/Letter%20to%20Rice-Afghanistan.pdf] Second, we must respond to poverty. Ignoring this kind of structural violence is worse than ongoing thermonuclear war. Abu-Jamal 98 (Mumia, Cop Killer, "A Quiet and Deadly Violence", September 19, http://www.angelfire.com/azlcatchphraze/mumiaswords.html) Poverty is the most evil form of death, pain, and humiliation- its qualitatively worse than other ways of dying. Dower 1993 Nigel, Prof. Of Philosophy @ Univ. of Aberdeen, “World Poverty”, A Companion to Ethics. Blackwell Publishing, Pg. 275-282 Fourth, we have a responsibility to act in the face of poverty. If they don’t have a counterplan, you should automatically default affirmative. Bernie Gert, Prof of Philosophy at Dartmouth, 2004 (Common Morality: Deciding What to Do, pg. 69-70) 8. Are there any alternative actions or policies that would be morally preferable? Finally, we have a moral obligation to do the plan even if government aid fails. Dower 1993 Nigel, Prof. Of Philosophy @ Univ. of Aberdeen, “World Poverty”, A Companion to Ethics. Blackwell Publishing, Pg. 275-282 Contention 4 is India-PakistanFirst, The U.S. needs Musharraf to crack-down on Islamic extremists inside of Pakistan, but domestic opposition makes him unsure about backing America. The Star-Ledger in 2007 [John Farmer, “Far more to fear from Pakistan than Iraq,” July 20, lexis] Second, U.S. engagement in Afghanistan changes Musharraf’s decision calculus and emboldens him to take on Islamic extremists. Failure to take action causes him to lose faith in the U.S. and cave politically. Biden in 2007 [Joseph, Democratic Senator and Presidential Candidate, Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Interview With William Caldwell; Interview With Shaukat Aziz, CNN Late Edition, May 27, lexis] And, October is key- Musharraf’s re-election will alter the political landscape. U.S. action in Afghanistan is uniquely perceived. Neena Gopal, analyst and special reporter on the Asia area, 9-16, 2007, Let’s Not Forget Afghanistan, Gulf News, p. lexis Fourth, cracking down on Islamic extremists in key to the Indo-Pak peace process. Perception of Musharraf’s commitment defuses tension and eliminates the risk of nuclear conflict. Delay or waffling causes India to lose trust and back out of negotiations. Malhotra, Chinoy, and Swamy in 2002 [Jyoti, Mike, and L.D., “A look at the tensions between India and Pakistan,” Insight, CNN International, June 4, lexis] Global nuclear war. Fai ‘01 (Ghulam Nabi, Executive Director, Kashmiri American Council, Washington Times, 7-8) And, failure to crack down massively increases the risk of nuclear terrorism. This is the biggest threat in the region. The Star-Ledger in 2007 [John Farmer, “Far more to fear from Pakistan than Iraq,” July 20, lexis] Nuclear terrorism causes extinction even if it is unsuccessful. Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, political analyst, August 26 – September 1, 2004, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm U.S. action is critical- any faltering reignites ethnic rifts and dooms Musharraf, guaranteeing a collapse of the peace process. 55 Oakley ‘03 (Robert, Fmr Ambassador – Pakistan and Visiting Fellow – National Defense U., Washington Post, 1-3) Strong U.S. commitment to Afghanistan solves Pakistani fears of Indian encirclement --- key to South Asia stability Markey ‘07 (Daniel, PhD – Princeton and Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, Foreign Affairs, July/August, Lexis) Plan --The United States Federal Government should promote crop-substitution for poppy farmers in Afghanistan, including substantially increasing government-to-government financial assistance to fund the cost of farmers destroying their crops or turning them over for destruction, subsidize farmers who choose to grow alternatives to poppies, and fund the development of agricultural infrastructure. We’ll clarify. Contention 5 is SolvencyProviding crop subsidies and agricultural infrastructure ensure a sustainable alternative to poppy production. Bergen ‘07 (Peter, Senior Fellow – New America Foundation, CQ Testimony, 2-15, Lexis) U.S. economic assistance is necessary to reduce illegal drug production- other organizations don’t want to intervene. Marquardt ‘05 (Erich, Senior Analyst – Power and Interest News Report, “Insurgents, Warlords, and Opium Roil Afghanistan, EurasiaNet, 11-18, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/pp111805.shtml) 56 Wake Forest DM Contention 1 – Sanctions A. Status Quo U.S. currently maintains strict sanctions on Iran --- but they’re ineffective and strengthen hardliners Asia Times 3-18-2006 America's options for Iran Scott Bohlinger is a Washington, DC-based analyst specializing in the Middle East, most specifically Iran. He also currently works at Jane's Intelligence Group Sanctions have proved ineffective…….. closed to Iran for 27 years. These sanctions are easily circumvented and crush vital U.S. industries like aerospace William A. Reinsch, President, National Foreign Trade Council, Middle East Institute, 10-6-04, Why Sanctions Don't Work, http://www.usaengage.org/literature/2004/20041006%20mei%20sanctions%20speech%20Reinsch.html The NFTC and its affiliate, USA*Engage…. This happened in Azerbaijan. Aerospace collapse destroys growth and power projection Senator. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), May 6, 2004, Seattle Times, “Stand up to Europe's threat to our aerospace industry,” http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2001920644_murray06.html America's commercial aerospace industry…. like it has the commercial market. Heg stops global nuclear war Zalmay Khalilzad, RAND policy analyst, Spring 1995, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 2, “Losing the Moment?” Under the third option, the United States would…. multipolar balance of power system. B. Future Wave A new round of sanctions is coming soon Michael Slackman and Nazila Fathi, The New York Times Media Group, 9-4-07, international herald tribune, Iran returns to its defiant stance on nuclear program, ln The White House warned that a new round…. aspect of the state-controlled economy. They’ll fail and crash the global economy. Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, 9-20-06, Iran’s Nuclear Program: America’s Policy Options, cato institute, http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa578.pdf Iran is an especially unpromising candidate….. they must look to other strategies. Nuclear war results from economic decline Walter Russell Mead, NPQ’s Board of Advisors, New Perspectives Quarterly, Summer 1992, p.30 What if the global economy stagnates… and Japan did in the ‘30s. 57 Contention 2 – Nuclearization Iran is aggressively pursuing nuclear weapons George Perkovich, Vice President for Studies–Global Security and Economic Development, Carnegie endowment, and Sharon Squassoni, senior associate, Carnegie endowment, 6-14-07, Iran Goes Secret Again, Carnegie endowment, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=19249&prog=zgp&proj=znpp The world focuses on Iran’s illegal uranium enrichment activities…. activities are entirely peaceful. U.S. policy only encourages quick proliferation Scott D. Sagan, professor of political science and co-director of Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation, October 2006, foreign affairs, How to Keep the Bomb From Iran, ln In the meantime, Iran's program has advanced…. problem is now a proliferation crisis. Iranian nuclearization sets off a chain reaction of proliferation that culminates in Mideast nuclear war – only U.S. engagement reassures Arab states Joseph Cirincione, director for nuclear policy at the Center for American Progress, former Senior Associate and Director for Non-Proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Uri Leventer, graduate student at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, August 14, 2007, The International Herald Tribune, “The Middle East's nuclear surge: Recipe for war,” p. Lexis Iran is still probably five to 10 years away from…. soon start to materialize around it Global nuclear war results Steinbach ‘02 (John, Center for Research on Globalization, 3-3, http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/STE203A.html) Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal…. could trigger a world conflagration And, it results in global WMD terrorism, risking extinction Yonah Alexander, director of the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies, and Milton Hoenig, physicist, co-editors of Super-Terrorism: Biological, Chemical, and Nuclear, March 5, 2006, The Washington Times, “Avoiding Iranian nuke terror,” p. Lexis Almost a century and a half ago, on hearing….. lion, peace is better than war." Nuclearization makes U.S. attack inevitable Leon Hadar, research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, 9-23-06, US-Iran Shootout Is Inevitable, anti-war, http://www.antiwar.com/hadar/?articleid=9738 But this line of thinking, which assumes…. US in the Middle East. Strikes fail and crush U.S. leadership Yonah Alexander, director of the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies, and Joe Swiecki, U.S. Army captain currently in Georgetown University's Masters Program for Policy Management, April 15, 2005, The Washington Times, “Can Iran be thwarted?” 58 p. Lexis Can the United States and like-minded…. sustainability of any such operation And, war only strengthens extremism Larry Diamond, senior fellow - Hoover Institution, et al., 2007, How to Turn Iran Upside Down, Hoover Digest, Abbas Milani research associate - Hoover, Michael McFaul - senior fellow - Hoover, p. http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/7465482.html After a year of rising stardom, Ahmadinejad…. unintended consequences of military action? Iran attack causes global nuclear war and extinction Hirsch, professor of physics at the university of Chicago, ‘05 (Jorge, Can A Nuclear Strike on Iran Be Averted, Anti-War, 11-21, http://www.antiwar.com/orig/hirsch.php?articleid=8089) The Bush administration has put together… Earth's population many times over. Current aggressive U.S. policy towards Iran strengthens hardliners, ensuring policy failure. Clifford Kupchan, director - Eurasia Group, and Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies - Council on Foreign Relations, 5-23, 2007, Try Jawboning Iran, Not Chest-Thumping, Los Angeles Times, p. lexis Earlier this month, Vice President Dick Cheney…. is committed to giving diplomacy a chance. Security assurances are pre-requisite for strengthening moderates George Perkovich, director of the nonproliferation program - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 5-19, 2005, Testimony on Iran Nuclear Ambitions, p. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=16967 Reducing the sense that the U.S. is…. the U.S. actually is trying to be nice.) Current internal debate will determine the power of the moderates and Iran’s nuclearizaiton policy. Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies - Council on Foreign Relations, 9-10, 2004, Wrong Strategy On Iran, The Washington Post, p. lexis Despite these dire developments, no one should…. Islamic Republic would get from them." Tipping internal debates in favor of moderates stops nuclearization Clifford Kupchan, director - Eurasia Group, and Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies - Council on Foreign Relations, 5-23, 2006, US Could Benefit From a Give-And-Take Strategy With Iran, The Boston Globe, p. lexis Although it is customary in Washington’s…., multilateral policy of pressure. Independently – empowering moderates is vital to avert global wars – hardliners will cause planetary collapse Gregory R. Copley, President of the International Strategic Studies Association, geopolitical analyst for over thirty years, January 2006, Defense & Foreign Affairs' Strategic Policy, “Iran's Delicate Year of Living Dangerously,” p. 2 IRAN IS THE DYNAMIC ELEMENT in the current global…. Ocean basin in the 21st Century. 59 Conflict in Central Asia escalates, setting the globe ablaze Tsepkalo, Belarussian Ambassador to the U.S., ’98 (Valery V., Foreign Affairs, March/April, Lexis) But abetting the continuing destabilization…. over weapons of mass destruction. Plan: The United States Federal Government should offer the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran a security guarantee, the possibility of the lifting of all or nearly all economic sanctions currently maintained on the Islamic Republic of Iran by the United States and the normalization of diplomatic relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States in return for a verifiable agreement from the Islamic Republic of Iran that they will not produce nuclear weapons. We’ll clarify. Contention 4 – Solvency Offering a security guarantee, lifting sanctions and normalizing relations is key to halt nucleariztion. Farbod, American Iranian Council, 06 (Faramarz, “Of Real and Manufactured Crisis: Iran in the Eye of the Storm”, 09/05, http://urpe.org/FarbodIranCrisis.pdf ) Iran wants a “grand bargain” that includes…. rhetoric also emphasizes the international. Only immediate and comprehensive engagement gets Iran on board Flynt Leverett, former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council and a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, and Hillary Mann, a former Foreign Service officer, participated in the United States discussions with Iran from 2001 to 2003, 12-22-06, What We Wanted to Tell You About Iran, new york times, ln Iran will only cooperate with the…. he will have so blithely squandered. U.S. is key --- others actors fail because they can’t offer the biggest carrots F. Stephen Larrabee, Corporate Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation, 3-9-06, Defusing the Iranian Crisis, orange county registrar, http://www.rand.org/commentary/030906OCR.html Rather than conducting a military strike…. less intransigent Iranian nuclear policy Iran will say yes. US aggression is the primary motivation for nuclearization. Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies - Council on Foreign Relations, 6-22, 2003, Iran's Nuclear Calculations, World Policy Journal, p. lexis With Saddam gone, America has emerged…. impact on the parameters of this debate. Regardless of Iran’s response, offering constructive engagement moderates the regime and halts nuclearization Diamond, hoover,’07 (Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, and Larry, Fellows and Coordinators, Iran Project – Hoover Institution, Washington Quarterly, “A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing With Iran”, Winter, Lexis) The Offer Is the Key. If the logic of our argument…. Heads we win, tails they lose. 60 Wake Forest SW Advantage 1 – Iran Attack US attack on Iran is inevitable now due to ineffective diplomacy and nuclearization. Leon Hadar, research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, 9-23-06, US-Iran Shootout Is Inevitable, anti-war, http://www.antiwar.com/hadar/?articleid=9738 But this line of thinking, …. extension that of the US in the Middle East. Even if the U.S. waits, status quo nuclearization guarantees military confrontation. Economist, 7-19-07 (The riddle of Iran, http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9514293) What Iran is doing at Natanz …. would consider military force. There’s no hope for success with an attack—any strategy employed will fail George Friedman, Stratfor founder and strategic analyst, 8-29-07, geopolitical intelligence report, Move and Countermove: Ahmadinejad and Bush Duel, stratfor There are two problems here. …. United States will break the nuclear taboo first. Iran attack ensures nuclear conflict and world war III. Abid Ullah Jan, Why American Will Reap In Iran What It Doesn’t Expect, February 20, 2006, p. http://mathaba.net/0_index.shtml?x=528456. Many analysts believe that … "World War 3" can convey. Advantage 2 – Nuclearization Iran will have enough enriched uranium to craft a bomb in 2009. David Albright, president - Institute for Science and International Security, 4-11, 2007, Iranian Nuclear Claims Exaggerated, p. http://www.cfr.org/publication/13031/albright.html In a best case scenario … leading up to 2009. Absent an arms agreement, Iranian proliferation will continue unchecked Scott D. Sagan, professor of political science and co-director of Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation, October 2006, foreign affairs, How to Keep the Bomb From Iran, ln In the meantime, Iran's …now a proliferation crisis. Iranian nuclearization is setting off a chain reaction of proliferation that will culminate in a Middle Eastern nuclear war, only engagement by America reassures these Arab states Joseph Cirincione, director for nuclear policy at the Center for American Progress, former Senior Associate and Director for NonProliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Uri Leventer, graduate student at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, August 14, ‘07, The International Herald Tribune, “The Middle East's nuclear surge: Recipe for war,” p. Lexis Iran is still probably five … start to materialize around it. And, escalation to nuclear war is guaranteed—accidents, miscalculation, and non-state actors 61 Efraim Inbar, Professor of Political Science - Bar-Ilan University, Director - Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, March, 2006, The Need to Block a Nuclear Iran, The Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 10, No. 1, Article 7, p. http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2006/issue1/jv10no1a7.html The nuclear ambitions … may pursue such a policy. Advantage 3 – Moderates Current aggressive U.S. policy towards Iran strengthens hardliners, ensuring policy failure. Clifford Kupchan, director - Eurasia Group, and Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies - Council on Foreign Relations, 5-23, 2007, Try Jawboning Iran, Not Chest-Thumping, Los Angeles Times, p. lexis Earlier this month, … giving diplomacy a chance. Taking strikes off the table is critical to push the hardliners out of power Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies - Council on Foreign Relations, 9-17, 2004, Action Needed Soon, Newsday, p. lexis Despite the assumptions of many in Washington … in stabilizing the Middle East. Current internal debate will determine the power of the moderates and Iran’s nuclearizaiton policy. Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies - Council on Foreign Relations, 9-10, 2004, Wrong Strategy On Iran, The Washington Post, p. lexis Despite these dire developments, no one should … the Islamic Republic would get from them." Tipping internal debates in favor of moderates stops nuclearization Clifford Kupchan, director - Eurasia Group, and Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies - Council on Foreign Relations, 5-23, 2006, US Could Benefit From a Give-And-Take Strategy With Iran, The Boston Globe, p. lexis Although it is customary in Washington’s … multilateral policy of pressure. Independently – empowering moderates is vital to avert global wars – hardliners will cause planetary collapse Gregory R. Copley, President of the International Strategic Studies Association, geopolitical analyst for over thirty years, January 2006, Defense & Foreign Affairs' Strategic Policy, “Iran's Delicate Year of Living Dangerously,” p. 2 IRAN IS THE DYNAMIC ELEMENT … basin in the 21st Century. Central Asian conflict escalates to nuclear war Stephen Blank, MacArthur Professor of Research at the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Fall 2k, World Affairs, Vol. 163, Iss. 2, “American Grand Strategy and the Transcaspian Region,” p. InfoTrac OneFile Thus many structural … capable of settling the situation. Plan: The United States federal government should offer not to threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran in return for a verifiable agreement from the Islamic Republic of Iran that they will not attempt to produce nuclear weapons. We’ll clarify. Solvency 62 U.S. is key --- others actors fail because they can’t offer the biggest carrots F. Stephen Larrabee, Corporate Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation, 3-9-06, Defusing the Iranian Crisis, orange county registrar, http://www.rand.org/commentary/030906OCR.html Rather than conducting a military … Iranian nuclear policy. Iran will say yes. US aggression is the primary motivation for nuclearization. Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies - Council on Foreign Relations, 6-22, 2003, Iran's Nuclear Calculations, World Policy Journal, p. lexis With Saddam gone, America … parameters of this debate. Regardless of Iran’s response, offering constructive engagement moderates the regime and halts nuclearization Diamond, hoover,’07 (Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, and Larry, Fellows and Coordinators, Iran Project – Hoover Institution, Washington Quarterly, “A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing With Iran”, Winter, Lexis) The Offer Is the Key. If the logic … Heads we win, tails they lose. Security guarantee is key to Iran giving up its nuclear program Sagan- professor of political science and director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University2006 (Scott D., Newsweek, “How to Make Tehran Blink” September 4, 2006, lexis Given Tehran's defiant response to …deal for the West as well. Offering constructive engagement moderates the regime and halts nuclearization, regardless of their response. McFaul, ’7 (Michael, Et al., Abbas Milani, and Larry Diamond, Fellows and Coordinators, Iran Project – Hoover Institution, Washington Quarterly, “A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing With Iran”, Winter, Lexis) The Offer Is the Key. … we win, tails they lose. Iran’s recent actions signal a willingness to constructively engage Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, 9-20-06, Iran’s Nuclear Program: America’s Policy Options, cato institute, http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa578.pdf There are intriguing signs … mistrust should fall.”73 Iran will comply given a security guarantee. Inter Press Service- 5-25-06 (Gareth Porter- graduated from the University of Illinois, received a master's degree in international politics from the University of Chicago and a Ph.D. in Southeast Asian politics from Cornell University. “Iran Proposal to US Offered Peace With Israel” http://www.antiwar.com/orig/porter.php?articleid=9040) Iran offered in 2003 to accept … the pro-democratic movement. 63 Wake Forest HR The United States Federal Government should offer to not threaten Iran’s sovereignty or territorial integrity with a strike as long as Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons or the capability to make nuclear weapons. Iran will develop nuclear weapons in 6 months Stratfor, 7-11-07, Israel: Iran Will Have Nuclear Weapons Soon, stratfor Iran will have the capability…community for protection Hostile relations now bolster the anti-U.S. camp and drives the race to the bomb Daniel Byman, director - Center for Peace and Security Studies at the School of Foreign Services - Georgetown University, 3-15, 2007, CQ Congressional Testimony, p. lexis Deterring the United States. Many…Iran’s leaders see a nuclear weapon as the ultimate guarantee of the regime’s security The US should offer Iran a security guarantee as a means to normalize relations and open discursive avenues for regime change International Herald Tribune. The Associated Press. Offer Iran security guarantee to end nuclear impasse: former UN weapons chief Blix Published: August 31st 2007. Iran should be offered… knowledge in the case of Iran," Blix said. US military action against Iran is inevitable Norman Podhoretz, Commentary editor-at-large, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, May 30, 2007, The Wall Street Journal, “The Case for Bombing Iran,” http://www.opinionjournal.com/federation/feature/?id=110010139 In his 2002 State of the Union… air strikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities from the three U.S. aircraft carriers already sitting nearby. Iranian nuclearization is setting off a chain reaction of proliferation that will culminate in a Middle Eastern nuclear war – only engagement by America reassures these Arab states Joseph Cirincione, director for nuclear policy at the Center for American Progress, former Senior Associate and Director for NonProliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Uri Leventer, graduate student at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, August 14, 2007, The International Herald Tribune, “The Middle East's nuclear surge: Recipe for war,” p. Lexis Iran is still probably five to 10 years away from… Tehran is even more crucial to halt not only the Iranian nuclear program, but those that will soon start to materialize around it. Nuclearization makes U.S. attack inevitable Leon Hadar, research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, 9-23-06, US-Iran Shootout Is Inevitable, anti-war, http://www.antiwar.com/hadar/?articleid=9738 But this line of thinking, which assumes that Iran is now in a position to threaten US interests in the Middle East and around the world and thus deter the Americans from using their military power… and by extension that of the US in the Middle East. Strikes fail and crush U.S. leadership Yonah Alexander, director of the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies, and Joe Swiecki, U.S. Army captain currently in Georgetown University's Masters Program for Policy Management, April 15, 2005, The Washington Times, “Can Iran be thwarted?” p. Lexis Can the United States and like-minded nations…. overall U.S. military structure and its available resources, affecting long-term sustainability of any such operation And, war only strengthens extremism 64 Larry Diamond, senior fellow - Hoover Institution, et al., 2007, How to Turn Iran Upside Down, Hoover Digest, Abbas Milani research associate - Hoover, Michael McFaul - senior fellow - Hoover, p. http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/7465482.html After a year of rising stardom, Ahmadinejad is… America and Iran’s dissidents fear it, shouldn’t the Bush administration think twice about the unintended consequences of military action? Iran does not enjoy democracy now Ledeen, 03 (Michael. November. “Nothing to lose but their chains” http://aei.org/publications/pubID.19506,filter.all/pub_detail.asp) Iran has always been the most powerful… mullahcracy in the same way the Serbs organised to bring down Milosevic Threats fail to dislodge the hardliners and only embolden them Clifford Kupchan, director - Eurasia Group, and Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies - Council on Foreign Relations, 5-23, 2007, Try Jawboning Iran, Not Chest-Thumping, Los Angeles Times, p. lexis Earlier this month, Vice President Dick Cheney threatened… the only one that is committed to giving diplomacy a chance. The plan empowers moderates to oust the regime. Monica Maggioni, foreign policy middle east correspondent, july 2007, Ahmadinejobless, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3904&fpsrc=ealert070720 In Tehran, the mood is quickly shifting… That pressure should be resisted. For military action would give Mahmoud Ahmadinejad exactly what he wants most: job security. Democracy in Iran would spread throughout the Middle East Ledeen, 03 (Michael. November. “Nothing to lose but their chains) http://aei.org/publications/pubID.19506,filter.all/pub_detail.asp Iran is ready for democratic revolution, and it is the key to the terror network…. Arabs saw more than 200 Iraqi newspapers spring up, along with countless magazines, new courses at the universities and other signs of intellectual creativity that hadn’t been seen for generations. Security assurances are pre-requisite for strengthening moderates George Perkovich, director of the nonproliferation program - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 5-19, 2005, Testimony on Iran Nuclear Ambitions, p. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=16967 Reducing the sense that the U.S. is obsessed… will give their own governments more latitude to pressure Iran if they see that the U.S. actually is trying to be nice.) Outsing hardliners is key to Iranian democracy Joe Klein, Time, 3-4-03, Why Not Kill Dictators with Kindness?, http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101030310428075,00.html A year ago in Tehran, I noticed a defiantly… I've heard it called the Fatal Hug." Iranian democracy solves terrorism, Iraqi stability and Middle East peace Steven Groves, Lomas Fellow at the Thatcher Center for Freedom at The Heritage Foundation, J.D., March 26, 2007, Heritage Backgrounder #2019, “Advancing Freedom in Iran,” http://www.heritage.org/Research/WorldwideFreedom/bg2019.cfm Advancing and achieving freedom and… for the short-term and long-term security interests of the American people. Iran will stop nuclearizing if the US guarantees non interference with Iran’s government Cameron S. Brown, deputy director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, 5-29-07, Analysis: US, Iran talks open door to 'grand bargain', http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1178708703521&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull Such progress will not be easy. There are many bones of contention, such as Iran's support for terrorism and its sabotaging of the 65 Arab-Israeli peace process. Most critically,… While in the past the US has refused to give such a guarantee, there might not be a better policy alternative. Iran will comply- A security guarantee completely solves Iran’s security concerns Doyle and Kutchesfahani, 06 (James E., Sara, research fellows at the Nonproliferation Division Office at Los Alamos National Laboratory, “Time for a US/Iran Patch Up”, 03/21, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=18157 ) Iran and the United States should become actively involved… such as that of Iraq, the more likely a normalization of relations can take place. Implosion in the Middle East is inevitable without democratic change Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, and coeditor, Journal of Democracy, Winter, 2005, The Middle East: Between Democracy and Stability, Hoover Digest, http://www.hooverdigest.org/051/diamond.html A growing number of Arab scholars,… and it is going to sweep away a lot of Western-leaning regimes sooner or later unless true reform begins soon. Nuclear terrorism causes extinction even if it is unsuccessful Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, political analyst, August 26 – September 1, 2004, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm We have reached a point in human history… When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers. US retaining the option of attack kills softpower San Francisco Chronicle, April 25, 2006, p. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/01/25/MNGUNGSNC51.DTL_ In addition to physical losses resulting from Iran's retaliation,… think of a serious military operation, the Europeans will quickly break ranks, as much as they support our concern on Iran." 30 regional conflicts will go global in a world without US soft power Joseph S. Nye, Jr., dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Winter 1996, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. 1, “Conflicts after the Cold War” While generally less threatening to U.S. interests than global or regional balance of power conflicts… an interlocking set of bilateral alliances, regional security organizations and alliances, and global institutions. Soft power solves- laundry list Oxford Analytica Leveraging US ‘soft power’ July 25th The United States continues to invest in the deployment of soft power measures against hostile states…. correcting encroachments by their own governments on such freedoms. Alternative Case: Syria Refugees Aff Advantage 1- Iraqi Refugees. Syria is increasing restrictions on Iraqi refugees- they are moving to seal off the border. Reuters 10-1-07 Syria shuts border to Iraqi refugees- UNHCR 66 “Syria reimposed rules… Iraqi official told Reuters.” And, Lack of US support is the reason why Syria is cracking down on refugees now. Frelick, bill september 20th 2007 (Human Rights Watch, Refugee Policy Director http://hrw.org/english/docs/2007/09/25/iraq16948.htm) “Our immediate concern… allowing refugees in. “ And, current international funding for Iraqi refugees is insufficient. Amnesty International July 2007 (The Situation of Iraq Refugees in Syria, http://web.amnesty.org/library/Index/ENGMDE140362007) “An international conference … in bilateral agreements.” And, US financial assistance is key to ensure that Syrian programs can manage the refugee situation. Limon 07 (Lavinia, President of the U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants, Director of the Center for the New American Community, Director of the Office of Refugee Resettlement, “The Silent Surge”, www.refugees.org/uploadedFiles/Investigate/Publications_&_Archives/WRS_Archives/2007/SilentSurge.pdf) “3. The United States must ensure … hosting these refugees.” And, failing to help the Iraqi refugees makes regional instability inevitable. Radio Free Europe 07 (Iraq: Refugee Crisis Could Become Regional Security Threat, July 19, http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/07/125F9BB7-46A1-4C2C-904A-F250A09C3393.html) “While Iraq's neighbors struggle … of terrorists," he warned.” Middle East instability causes global crises and nuclear war. John Steinbach, nuclear specialist, Secretary of the Hiroshima-Nagasaki Peace Committee of the National Capitol Area, 2002, Centre for Research on Globalisation, “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: a Threat to Peace,” http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/STE203A.html “Meanwhile, the existence … world conflagration.” (44)” Advantage 2- US Refugee leadershipLack of support for Iraqi refugees threatens US refugee leadership- new commitments from the US are key. Taft 07 (Julia, director of the Interagency Task Force for Indochinese Refugee Resettlement in the Ford administration and assistant secretary of state for population, refugees and migration from 1997 to 2001, June 27, 2007, “Ignoring the Iraqi refugee crisis,” The Star-Ledger Newark, New Jersey, lexis) “I found myself thinking … the right thing to do.” And, helping Iraqi refugees is uniquely key- it’s a problem we started, so our inaction looks particularly bad. Limon 07 (Lavinia, President of the U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants, Director of the Center for the New American Community, Director of the Office of Refugee Resettlement, “The Silent Surge”, www.refugees.org/uploadedFiles/Investigate/Publications_&_Archives/WRS_Archives/2007/SilentSurge.pdf) “The United States must … blocks of a stable society.” Increasing funding for refugee protections boosts US refugee leadership. 67 Carlin 00 (Francis, Deputy Executive Director of Catholic Relief Services, Federal News Service, 3/30, lexis) “The U.S. Catholic bishops … refugee protection worldwide.” US refugee leadership is key to solve global refugee flows. USCCB 01 (United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, June 20, http://www.usccb.org/mrs/resolution01.shtml) “Notwithstanding our nation's historic … asylum seekers around the world.” Refugee crises erupt into violent ethnic conflict. Nana-Sinkam 00 (Professor Samuel C., Special Representative of the Secretary General of the United Nations in Guinea Bissau, October 20, The Sources of Conflict, http://www.clubofrome.org/archive/publications/nana%20sources%20of%20 conflict%2011.12.00.pdf) “The African state system … . armed hostilities have erupted.” And, ethnic conflict is rapidly spreading. Conversi 05 (Daniele, Senior Lecturer European Policy Research Centre Department of Policy Studies at the University of Lincoln, "Workshop4 Detention: Suspect Communities: The Real 'War on Terror' in Europe - Conference 21 May 2005", http://www.muslimparliament.org.uk/Workshop6.pdf ) “The literature on ethnic conflict … necessary legitimacy quorum.” Ethnic conflicts could go nuclear. Dean 95 (Jonathon, advisor on International Security Issues for the Union of Concerned Scientists, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, No. 2, Vol. 51, p. 45, March, lexis) “Experts throughout the world …. to direct attack.“ And, Boosting refugee leadership increases the overall credibility of our soft power. DiMarzio 99 (Nicholas, Bishop of Camden, Bishop's Testimony Before Senate Judiciary Committee Subcommittee on Immigration, Aug 4, http://www.usccb.org/comm/archives/1999/99-185a.shtml) “I am pleased, therefore… U.S. foreign policy interests. “ Soft power is key to solve disease. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, July 27, 2007, The Chronicle Review, “American Foreign Policy After Iraq,” http://chronicle.com/weekly/v53/i47/47b00601.htm?=attw “Academics and pundits … stop at the water's edge.” Spread of disease causes extinction (gender modified) Col. William Fox, M.D., Commander of Bayne-Jones Army Hospital, Command Surgeon of the Joint Readiness Training Center, medical degree from the Uniformed Services University of the Health Services, Winter 1997-98, Parameters, Vol. XXVII, No. 4, “Phantom Warriors: Disease as a Threat to US National Security,” http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/97winter/fox.htm HIV is a pandemic … use of weapons of mass destruction. Advantage 3- Assad credibility Assad’s credibility is collapsing now- lack of cooperation with the United States over internal stability issues like refugees makes the 68 regime a ticking time bomb. Byman 10-9-07 (Daniel, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, What is Syrian President Bashar Assad up to?, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2007/1009syria.aspx) “Ironically, Assad is rolling … regime to the detriment of both. The plan boosts Assad’s credibility with everyone- local ethnic groups, regional players, and the United States. Oxford Analytica 07 (International Iraqi Refugees Place Huge Burden On Syria Oxford Analytica 05.11.07) “The number of Iraqi refugees … the refugee card strongly.” Collapse of Assad credibility causes civil war, radical backlash, and Hezbollah strikes. Colonel Robert W. Meeks, U.S. Army, March 15, 2006 (Syria: Reassessing U.S. Approach and Option, USAWC Strategy Research Project, p. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/ksil425.pdf) Similar to Iraq, a sudden power … affected by instability in Syria. Continued Hezbollah attacks cause nuclear war and extinction. Joel Leyden, Israel News Agency, August 5, 2006 (Hezbollah Iran Missiles Slam Hadera Israel - Nuclear War Approaching?, p. http://www.israelnewsagency.com/haderaisraeliranrocketsnuclearwar4848070805.html) “Tel Aviv----August 5......The only good thing about the terror group …. vaporize those who threaten our children.” And, Iraqi refugees are the vital internal link for Syrian stability. Yacoubian 07 (Mona, director of the Institute's Syria Working Group, Syria's Relations with Iraq, April, US Institute of Peace, http://www.usip.org/pubs/usipeace_briefings/2007/0403_syria_iraq.html) Although the insurgent issue has .. breaking point and lead to public unrest. Thus the plan, The United States Federal Government should offer to Syria a substantial increase in financial assistance for dealing with the Iraqi refugee crisis if Syria agrees to cooperation, including but not limited to, an agreement to ease restrictions on the entrance of Iraqi refugees into Syria. Next, Solvency… The US should increase aid to Syria for Iraqi refugees and engage Syria over closing its border. Frelick, bill september 20th 2007 (Human Rights Watch, Refugee Policy Director http://hrw.org/english/docs/2007/09/25/iraq16948.htm) We would like to recommend several steps …. welcome the refugees. Syria will say yes to diplomacy and financial assistance to cooperate over refugees. Yacoubian 07 (Mona, director of the Institute's Syria Working Group, Syria's Relations with Iraq, April, US Institute of Peace, http://www.usip.org/pubs/usipeace_briefings/2007/0403_syria_iraq.html) Syria will likely continue … Damascus takes hold in Iraq. The US is key. Loescher and Loescher 94 (Gil and Ann, Senior fellow for Forced Displacement and International Security for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Global Refugee Crisis, p. 24-6) The refugee crises in ex-Yugoslavia … opportunity should now be seized. 69 Wayne State GP US policy on Iran is a disaster – Unilateral sanctions and isolation have no chance to curb their nuclear program Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf The first option, to “muddle through,”… as we detail on page 24. Thus we offer the following plan: Through all necessary means the United States Federal Government should constructively engage the Government of Iran by offering to lift United States domestic restrictions on and opposition to foreign investment in Iran’s gasoline refinery sector, a promise to not engage in or support regime change or first strikes in Iran, and the United States will support all necessary funding for Iranian access to an international nuclear fuel bank in exchange for Iranian commitment to discontinue uranium enrichment. Iran is close to developing industrial centrifuges – dubbed “the point of no return” by the United States and other nations Phillip Kurata, Washington File Staff Writer, “Iran Approaches Point of No-Return on Acquiring a Nuclear Program”, The Washington File, April 2006, http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfileenglish&y=2006&m=April&x=20060421175140cpataruk0.9464533 Washington -- Iran is approaching the .. including weapons grade material. Second - there are several “known unknowns” about Iran’s nuclear program which could substantially speed up its development of weapons grade material Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf Iran will most likely overcome … competence with centrifuge technology. Third – Once Iran comes public with its industrial nuclear capabilities – it will inspire other nations to develop so called “peaceful” nuclear programs – this virtual arms race ensures nuclear war Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf Regardless of how Iran behaves with a nuclear … this is a recipe for nuclear war. 70 And Fourth – Middle East nuclear war escalates to a global nuclear conflict Steinbach, DC Iraq Coalition, March 2002 http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/02.03/0331steinbachisraeli.htm Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction … conflict could trigger a world conflagration. Advantage 2 – Global Proliferation First – the NPT exception to the development of nuclear power crushes its credibility – every signatory has the “inalienable right” to develop technology that can convert peaceful nuclear power into nuclear weapons in a matter of weeks Y. J. Choi, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Korea to the United Nations and former Chancellor of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, “THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND PROLIFERATION CHALLENGES TO THE NPT REGIME”, March 2007, http://www.gsinstitute.org/mpi/docs/A6F_Vienna_Choi.pdf It is well known that the current NPT regime … extremely complex and highly sensitive. Second – The NPT is critical to stop global proliferation Jayantha Dhanapala, Undersecretary General for Disarmament Affairs UN, “The State of the Global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime: 2001”, 21-23 May 2001, http://disarmament.un.org/speech/21may2001.htm For their part, multilateralists must pay closer attention … our "Last Chance" for a safer world for everybody Proliferation results in nuclear war and extinction Victor A. Utgoff, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis, Survival Vol 44 No 2 Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions, p. 87-90 2002 Many readers are probably wilting to accept that nuclear proliferation … dead cities or even whole nations. Observation 3: Solvency: First – An international fuel bank would solve regional proliferation and close the loophole in the NPT Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf The United States and its partners … Iran to forego uranium enrichment Second – the plan solves proliferation 71 Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf But it is no more than that. Russia and China … the support of key allies and partners Third - The security guarantee is key to getting Iran to abandon its nuclear program – they fear US regime change Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf The Bush administration made a tactical adjustment … its enrichment program. Fourth - Lifting sanctions is key – it revitalizes the oil sector which is essential to getting the Iranian public to support the plan Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf The United States should continue … doubt the wisdom of his policy decisions. Scene One: The Master and the Puppet The United States has taken the role of the “sole-madman” arranging the strategic goal posts of our external order in an attempt to conquer the violence and inequality that permeates our internal order. Paranoid that Iran’s proliferation efforts will threaten the global harmony that sustains our ideological primacy, it is our responsibility to restore order by promoting democracy and human rights. Siavoj Zizek. International director of the Birkbeck Institute for the Humanities. August 11, 2005. Give Iranian Nukes a Chance. In These Times. http://www.lacan.com/zizekiranian.htm (Jason Pearsall) The ideology of spreading democracy and globalization through the promotion of human rights depoliticizes strategic interventions creating a cycle of victimization that hinders subjective identity. Slavoj Zizek. 2006. The Parallax View. P. 340-341. (Pearsall) And, this logic of restoring order and removing the threat of Iran can be understood as an attempt to master the undemocratic and inhumane excess that antagonize neo-liberalism. Glyn Daly. Senior Lecturer in Politics in the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at University College. June 1999. Ideology and its paradoxes: Dimensions of fantasy and enjoyment. Journal of Political Ideologies. Vol. 4, Iss. 2; pg. 219-239. (Jason Pearsall) This desire to control the ideological direction of Iran emerges from the death drive—this psychic apparatus justifies and is the cause for all forms of violence. Slavoj Zizek. 1989. The Sublime Object of Ideology. P. Introduction. (Jason Pearsall) Scene Two: The Parallax 72 Human rights promotion strategically maintains the ideological primacy of the United States by creating a democratic existence for the “other” that is tolerable because it does not threaten neo-liberal interests. The radical political act of arming Iran in an effort to promote freedom confronts the death drive and alters the coordinates of possibility within the constitutive limits of contemporary democracy. Slavoj Zizek 2004. From Politics to Biopolitics…and Back. The South Atlantic Quarterly. Project Muse. (Jason Pearsall) Our ethical political obligation is to redefine the coordinates of the symbolic order by problematizing the benevolent relationship between democratic human rights promotion and our strategic economic interests. Glyn Daly and Slavoj Zizek. 2004. Conversations with Zizek. P. 13-18. (Jason Pearsall) The authentic political act acknowledges that it is the attempt to create utopia that creates the conditions of totalitarianism – coping with denial of constitutive antagonism is the necessary first step to bettering our world. Dr. Lasse Thomassen. Department of Politics – University of London. 2001. The Politics of Lack. http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/pmc/v011/11.3thomassen.hmtl 73 Wayne State HK In 2001, we began a military campaign in Afghanistan with the expressed intent of overthrowing the Taliban regime. The liberation of women served as a justification for our internvention. Soon after, we claimed victory and declared freedom for the women for Afghanistan, our announcement came too soon However, the oppression and degradation of women continues under the northern alliance. As we detail in Contention 1 The current US approache in Afghanistan lacks a long-term financial and political commitment-this strategy will inevitably break down and result in widespread instability. Reidel Aug 28, 2007, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Mark, Epoch Times http://en.epochtimes.com/news/7-8-28/59153.html “Based on the current….government and society.” Current reconstruction fials to include women. Instead they are tokens used as rhetorical figures to justify US style intervention Sippi Azarbaijani-Moghaddam, independent consultant who has working in Afghanistan for eleven years, 2003 Donini, Antonio (editor) Nation-Building Unraveled?: Aid, Peace and Justice in Afghanistan p. 106-112 “Regardless of women’s enormous….outside the capita.” US control of contracts for reconstruction diverts aid and threatens to collapse the nation-building process Fawa 2006 (Nadia, Corpwatch Report afther she visited Afghanistan) Afghanistan inc. ADV1 Systemic Violence As war has torn AFghansitan apart in an endless cycle of violence, 12 million women suffer the worse of the consequences. They livein abject poverty and are subject oabuse, violence and prostitution Sima Wali, President, Refugee Women in Development, 3.8.02 Statement by Sima Wali, president, refugee women in development on the occasion of international women’s day http://www.un.org/events/women/2002/wali.htm “For the past 23 years….countries in the world.” This systemic violence outweighs any of the DA impacts, the probability is 100% Rescher, Chair of Department of Philosophy at University of Pittsburgh, 1983 Nicholas, Risk, p.36-37, “On this issue there is a…..presents a realistic prospect.” AdV II—Victimhood Women are excluded from the political. Used by the US as objects to achieveits goals, Afghan Women were abandoned to new forms of oppression. Mary Anne Franks, Winter, 2003 (Hypatia, Obscene undersides: women and evil between the Taliban and the United States, 18:1 74 Back in 1935…..aims had been achieved. This narrative of victimhood underwrites perpetual victimhood. Current and Future interventions are mobilized US as neutral actors and Afghan women as victims. This creates women as nothing other than bare life. Slavoj Zizek 2002 Welcome to the Desert of the Real!, Verso 2002, London. UK And it is against the background…immersed in the amniotic fluid. Current Pproach to reconstruction locks in gender roles that sustain patriarchal domination Sippi Azarbaijani-Moghaddam, independent consultant who has worked in Afghanistan for eleven years, 2003 Donini, Antonio (Editor). Nation-Building Unraveled?: Aid, Peace and Justice in Afghanistan. P 106-112 Economics as a vehicle of change…women and their families desire. This patriarchal exclusion is the root cause of violence and will lead to extinction. Only by exposing these exclusions and gendered structuring of society can we solve. Warren and Cady, Professors of Philosophy at Macalester College & Hamline University, 1994 (Karen and Duane, Hypatia, Spring, Proquest) “The notion of patriarchy as a socially…connections in regional, national, and global contexts.” Our role is not to intervene and pick sides—only including womens groups and NGO’s in the Afghan government and security calculations with financial assistance will allow them to create real change for themselves Sippi Azarbaijani-Moghaddam, independent consultant who has worked in Afghanistan for eleven years, 2003 Donini, Antonio (Editor). Nation-Building Unraveled?: Aid, Peace and Justice in Afghanistan. P.106-112 “The MoWA was recently set up….never find an effective voice.” If we merely support inclusion of groups like RAWA, we could abandon the rhetoric of humanitarian intervention and Afghan women as victims, which allows them to change ideology and practice Franks, 2003 Mary Anne, Hypatia, “Obscene undersides: women and evil between the Taliban and the United States,” 18:1. Winter. “Kolhatkar knows the answer as well as Zizek……phantasmatic image of the other.” Afghan women don’t need to be saved by our current intervention efforts-Rawa can achieve equality once they get in power Sonali Kolhatkar, VP of the Afghan Women’s Mission, 11.14.02 (“Afghan Women: Enduring American ‘Freedom.’, IRC “Afghan women don’t need saving……they are enduring American freedom.” This model of depoliticized humanitarianism to “save” Afghan women reduces politics to managerialism. This constructs global problems as “Aberrations” in an other-wise stable world. Calhoun, Professor of Social Sciences at NYU, 04 (Craig. ‘A world of emergencies: fear, intervention, and the limits of cosmopolitan order,” The Canadian Review of Sociology and Anthropology 41.4 november 75 “The imaginary construct of “emergencies”……as they are well enough” This model of crisis management leads to global civil war Agamben, teaches philosophy at the College International de Philosophie in Paris and at the University of Verona in Italy, 9-20-2002 Giorgio. “Security and Terror,” Theory and Event lss. 5.4 “The risk not merely….irreconcilable with democracy.” Advantage III--Patriarchy ARTF allows Afghanistan to control who gets reconstruction contracts UN 2005 (United Nations Report by Scanteam Analysts and Advisors, March) http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/APCITY/UNPAN022670.pdf “Afghanistan has traditionally had….largely handled at central ministry level.” Funding the ARTF key to promoting stability in Afghanistan UN 2005 (United Nations Report by Scanteam Analysts and Advisors, March) http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/APCITY/UNPAN022670.pdf At a more subtle but…..longer-term impact possible.” 76 Wayne State NP US policy on Iran is a disaster – Unilateral sanctions and isolation have no chance to curb their nuclear program Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf The first option, to “muddle through,”… as we detail on page 24. Thus we offer the following plan: Through all necessary means the United States Federal Government should constructively engage the Government of Iran by offering to lift United States domestic restrictions on and opposition to foreign investment in Iran’s gasoline refinery sector, a promise to not engage in or support regime change or first strikes in Iran, and the United States will support all necessary funding for Iranian access to an international nuclear fuel bank in exchange for Iranian commitment to discontinue uranium enrichment. Iran is close to developing industrial centrifuges – dubbed “the point of no return” by the United States and other nations Phillip Kurata, Washington File Staff Writer, “Iran Approaches Point of No-Return on Acquiring a Nuclear Program”, The Washington File, April 2006, http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfileenglish&y=2006&m=April&x=20060421175140cpataruk0.9464533 Washington -- Iran is approaching the .. including weapons grade material. Second - there are several “known unknowns” about Iran’s nuclear program which could substantially speed up its development of weapons grade material Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf Iran will most likely overcome … competence with centrifuge technology. Third – Once Iran comes public with its industrial nuclear capabilities – it will inspire other nations to develop so called “peaceful” nuclear programs – this virtual arms race ensures nuclear war Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf Regardless of how Iran behaves with a nuclear … this is a recipe for nuclear war. 77 And Fourth – Middle East nuclear war escalates to a global nuclear conflict Steinbach, DC Iraq Coalition, March 2002 http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/02.03/0331steinbachisraeli.htm Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction … conflict could trigger a world conflagration. Advantage 2 – Global Proliferation First – the NPT exception to the development of nuclear power crushes its credibility – every signatory has the “inalienable right” to develop technology that can convert peaceful nuclear power into nuclear weapons in a matter of weeks Y. J. Choi, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Korea to the United Nations and former Chancellor of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, “THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND PROLIFERATION CHALLENGES TO THE NPT REGIME”, March 2007, http://www.gsinstitute.org/mpi/docs/A6F_Vienna_Choi.pdf It is well known that the current NPT regime … extremely complex and highly sensitive. Second – The NPT is critical to stop global proliferation Jayantha Dhanapala, Undersecretary General for Disarmament Affairs UN, “The State of the Global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime: 2001”, 21-23 May 2001, http://disarmament.un.org/speech/21may2001.htm For their part, multilateralists must pay closer attention … our "Last Chance" for a safer world for everybody Proliferation results in nuclear war and extinction Victor A. Utgoff, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis, Survival Vol 44 No 2 Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions, p. 87-90 2002 Many readers are probably wilting to accept that nuclear proliferation … dead cities or even whole nations. Observation 3: Solvency: First – An international fuel bank would solve regional proliferation and close the loophole in the NPT Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf The United States and its partners … Iran to forego uranium enrichment Second – the plan solves proliferation 78 Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf But it is no more than that. Russia and China … the support of key allies and partners Third - The security guarantee is key to getting Iran to abandon its nuclear program – they fear US regime change Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf The Bush administration made a tactical adjustment … its enrichment program. Fourth - Lifting sanctions is key – it revitalizes the oil sector which is essential to getting the Iranian public to support the plan Joseph Cirincione, Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress And Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage” Center for American Progress, March 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf The United States should continue … doubt the wisdom of his policy decisions. Also reads this evidence: Proliferation leads to accidental war, Sagan, 2003 “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons” pages—79-80 “first some emergent..false warnings” Nations looking to Iran to determine if they stay in the NPT, Bali, 2006 “Standing at the Nuclear Precipice: Iran” www.inesap.org “the Iranian case…region are grim” 79 Varsity Negative 80 Emory EW T – constructive engagement is unconditional, not a quid pro quo Diplomatic Capital DA– Focus on Iraq key to stabilize country, leadership impact Radio Farda CP Democracy Promo Good DA The USFG should cease any current for planned engagement with Iran and appoint an Iran coordinator to oversee the substantial expansion of US internal regime change efforts within Iran, including replacing Radio Farda’s popular music programming with strategic communications assistance to dissident groups within Iran, and disseminating information within Iran about constitutional change. The CP spurs institutional change in Iran. Groves 3-26(?)-06, lexis, steven, heritage foundation reports, “the Iranian constitution is a cancer that must be excised….. to widen the potential audience.” Funding strategic communication has a strong history of success- cold war proves wimbush 07 (enders, 1/31, http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/110/wim013101.htm) “Radio Farda’s confusion is elementary… pumped out popular music.” CP will bolster youth movement and spur democracy Fakhravar 06 (amir, 7/20, http://hsgac.senate.gov/_files/072006Fakravar.pdf) “we, the Iranian youth and students, have shown that we have great power…. See the need for regime change.” Regime change can happen- further loss of cred is the tipping point taheri 06 (amir, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/cm/main/viewArticle.html?id=10134) “but- some might object- even granting the virtue of the idea…Mustadafeen (“Mobilization of the Dispossessed”) “ 2nc Regime change is key to solve all iran impacts – regime ideology will prevent anything else Fuchs 7, defense and foreign affairs strategic policy, vol 35, iss 6 I don’t think negotiation with iran will take the US…cannot be crossed Regime change is a prerequisite to changing Iranian behavior Taheri 6 At home in the united states a policy of regime change…wipe-israel-off-the-map strategy Fundamental religious conviction prevents co-existence with other states Taheri 6 Why does the Islamic republic…more becomes a nation-state DEMOCRACY PROMOTION DA 1nc Iran is on the brink of revolution because of hardline international pressure and abandonment of negotiations Sahiri 8/22/7, “iran: a third option” Iranian cities…mullahs in Tehran Security guarantees will devatstate the pro-democracy movement Timmerman 7, “hold iran accountable” This will be perceived as the US backing off of democracy promotion and will risk repressive revolutions throughout the region Donnelly 5, getting ready for a nuclear-ready iran Throughout the greater middle east…midst of collapsing This would cause a global authoritarian resurgence Mirchell 7, national interest, march/april, “beyond bombs and ballots” 81 While the potential costs of continuing…neighbor to the south Democracy outweighs – systemic genocide of billions at stake Rummel 6 Billions of human beings are still…produces the bloodiest wars Regime change is the only way to solve the case Taheri 6 Ahmadinejad is now desperate…support for the cause of freedom 2nc Negotiations legitimize the regime – it means even if there is a new revolution, it will be anti-US and recreate the problem Rubin 6, “nuclear hostage crisis”, wall street journal Proposals for direct negotiations…same mistake again A2: US-EU relations -Iran not undermining US-EU relations – x -mult alternative causalities to US-EU relations – x A2: Iranian prolif advantage -Arguments about Iran prolif based on hysteria – x -Deterrence solves the impact – x 82 Emory MT 1. Democratic Engagement Counterplan (Plank banned future sanctions, US Engagement with Iran, and Reformed Radio Farda) Net Benefits were the grassroots democracy and the disads 2. Moderates Disad: Engagement helps the Regime 3. Diplomatic Tradeoff—Iraq: Plan trades off with Rice’s Focus on Iraq—impact is Iraqi Instability/War US is focused on Iraq -- AFP 07 plan disrupts that focus -- x diplo focus key to stablize iraq -- 07 success is key -- x mpx = global wars -- kegan 97 4. Appeasement: Winning WOT Now Jacoby, 9/9/2007, (Jeff, Boston Globe, 9/9, “War on terror is working”, http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/09/09/war_on_terrpr_is_working/) “IF THERE WAS one thing we all knew…till the finish. We had better be, too.” CE empirically emboldens Iran, which will manipulate negotiations and read them as a license for adventurism Gove, 2004, (Michal, The Times, 8/23, “We cannot appease Iran;There is no excuse for clinging to the policy of “constructive engagement” http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=98) “MY ENEMY’S enemy isn’t always my friend. Sometimes…at home and adventurism abroad.” The affirmative understands the basic character of the regime – they are at war with us and the largest support of terrorism globally. Engagement would embolden bad behavior. Ledeen, 2007, senior fellow @ the AEI (Michael, The Iranian Time Bomb, p.23-28) “Those who still dream of the grand bargain—including those…they prevail. This the world must realize.” The US is on the brink now—any new sign of appeasement will risk Iranian miscalculation and immediately spark a full scale war Muravchik 2007, resident scholar @ AEI, (Joshua, “Winds of War” 7/3, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.26443,filter.all/pub_detail.asp) “A large portion of modern wars erupted because…are hastening the advent of the next war.” This also sends a global signal to North Korea, terrorists, Russia and China Bunn 2007, Senior Research Fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies @ the NDU (dElaine, “Can deterrence be tailored?”, Strategic Forum, 1/1, p. Lexis) “Ideally, planning for crisis or peacetime detterence…reduce the possibility of misperception?” This will embolden terrorist attacks on the US Crespo 2004, (Paul, “The Price of Spain’s Appeasement”, http://www.davidstuff.com/incorrect/crespo2.htm, March 2004) 83 “But, by venting their fear and rage at the government…even greater attacks against the United States.” New Terrorism will ignite public hysteria and induce psychosis even without weapons of mass destruction Sullivan 2006, (Andrew, director Near East Support Services, a consulting firm focusing on the Arab and Islamic world, “How well should you be sleeping?”, National Interest, September/October, proquest) “In this regard, it is often assumed…imitators remain very much alive.” US Global retaliation causes multiple scenarios ofr NW Corsi,, 2005, (Jerome, PHD in political science from Harvard, excerpt from Atomic Iran, http:/911review.org/Wget/worldnetdaily.com/NYC_hit_by_terrorist_nuke.html) “The Combination of horror and outrage that will surge…was still capable of exacting revenge.” Politics Disad will pass now -- dems key -- x eng Iran builds pol cap -- x causes warming -- 99 leads to xtn -- henderson 96 Counterplan usfg should remove the MEK from trst list removal would cause concessions -- x supporting this group leads to regime change -- x Against Iran: Strikes advantage: us pursuing backchannel diplomacy now -- x strikes are no longer on the table -- x some card -- 07 iran perceives the strike coming now -- x US/EU advantage: iran has u/m'd eu rltns -- x exposing something -- x us/eu rltns low now -- afp 9/6/07 us/eu rltns resiliant -- x Democracy advantage: demo destroys us/arab rltns -- x NMD DA Engagement increases US EU relations Increased US EU relations leads to NMD NMD leads to space militarization and extinction Threat Construction Kritik Topicality – Constructive Engagement = QPQ CE must be cond'l requires qpq -- crocker 90 viol - they make uncond'l offer -- chan 90 c. voter Viol - they make uncond'l offer -- chan 90 pot abuse = V 84 Emory HS LOST—Bush Good—terrorism impact Amidinejad disad power struggle now and ahm looks unreasonable Karon 10-24 www.atlanticfreepress.com/content/view/2684/81/ the resignation of.... of decision making Aff empowers ahm Mcfaul and milani 06 "To tame Tehran" Washington post on the surface….reap rewards shores up ahms standing with khamenei, boosting ability to win the direction of Iranian policy the economist "whos the boss" 10-25 It is seldom clear… for quite a while yet.. pragmatists would reemerge otherwise tisdall 10-23 "talking nuclear with an old friend of the president But the conclusion.. ever more intense hms consolidation of power will result in hostile Iranian adventurism Barry Rubin 2007, "The region" ahmadinejads agenda" the Jerusalem post Ahmadinjead is a demagogue…. of their regime causes extinction David bosco 2007 "could this be the start of world war III?" as the middle east erupts… major regional war CP: the usfg should cease any current or planned engagement with iran and appoint an iran coordinator to oversee the substantial expansion of us internal regime change efforts within icran including replacing radio farads popular music programming with strategic communications programs for regime change determined by Iranian dissident groups changing the programming of voice of merica to support debate over Iranian democracy providing comms assistance to dissident groups within iran and disseminating info within iran about constitutional change. this mandate should redirect current and future funding from ethnic separatist grops into strategic communiations CP spurs constitutional change within iran groves 07 Steve, Heritage foundation reports, "advancing freedom in Iran" 3/36 Lexis The united states should persue… potential audience Funding strategic coms has a strong history of success during cold war -promotes internal debate in iran Wimbush 07 www.internationalrelations.house.gov/110/wim013107.htm Radio fard's confusion… popular music spur Iranian democracy - Fakhravar 06 http://hsgac.senate.gov/_files/072006fakhravar.pdf We, the Iranian youth….need for regime change regime change can happen. Taheri 06 "getting serous about iran" for regime change" cmmentarmagazine.com --they ran the CP conditionally 85 Emory DS Rice DA (same as other teams) Appeasement (also the same) Iranian Politics (also the same) Regime Change CP (also the same) 86 Emory IN T—Must be QPQ No risk of bidirectionality – conditional incentives are still positive incentives – the stick is just that the incentive is withdrawn not that sanctions are applied Scharf 2000 – 49 depaul l. rev. 925 “sanctions are punitive in nature and are politically difficult to impose and enforce” … “policy of conditional aid became de facto a policy of constructive engagement” Only our interpretation gives meaning to the word constructive – otherwise it would only be engagement Strode 1998 – Baptist press, 7-8 “land and other religious conservatives” … “constructive engagement means that constructive changes are made” constructive always implies linkage henrikson 1995 – hein online “the key elements of the evolving american strategy” … “conflict on the condition that they make peace” Constructive engagement reguies clearly defined negative conditions Nauraee 2002 – 25 suffolk transnat’l l. rev. 535 – reassessing us policy toward iran “constructive engagement was initially used as an alternative to sanctions” … “were accompanied by clearly defined and limited negative conditions” constructive engagement requires an explicit quid pro quoconditioned on a separate behavior change Purcell 2003 – Cuban communism ed horowitz and suchlicki “most embargo opponents argue that its removal”… “essentially one of conditional or constructive engagement” Politics Peru FTA won’t pass now – building support of democrats key Fortune 10/01/2007 (lexis) “With protectionism on the rise and the President a lame duck… companies but uncertainty for U.S. workers.” Engaging Iran Builds Political Capital Rubin (The Baltimore Sun April 10 2007, lexis) “Sadly, the latter strategy… man who heads the executive branch.” Peru FTA guts the Amazon and causes global warming Greenwatch (“Bush Free Trade Plan Puts Amazon Up For Grabs,” 9/29/2007) “The Bush administration is quietly pressing… into the U.S. in clear violation of the international agreements.” EXTINCTION Henderson (“Runaway Global Warming Denial, 8/19/2006) “The scientific debate about… and therefore extinction or very near extinction of humanity.” Against Afghanistan Poppies: EU CP- The European Union should promote crop substitution for poppy farmers in Afghanistan, including substantially increasing government-to-government financial assistance to fund the cost of farmers destroying their crops or turning them over for destruction, subsidize farmers who choose to grow alternatives to poppies, and fund the development of agricultural infrastructure. The European Unione should establish the Greater Central Asia Partnership for Cooperation and Development and invite all regional countries to join. Against Iran: 87 CP: Provide Security Guarantees to surrounding countries, establish red-lines for Iranian nonproliferation compliance, admit Israel into NATO DEMOCRACY DA IRAN’S ON THE BRINK OF A REVOLUTION BECAUSE OF HARDLINE INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE AND THE ABANDONMENT OF NEGOTIATIONS SARIRI, 8-22, 2007 Iran: A Third Option Global Politician “Iranian cities have been the scene of widespread protests….dealing with the mullahs in Tehran.” REVOLUTION COMING Econ has put the population on the brink of revolution Washington Times, 7 “Could the Mullahs Fall?” “Last week’s riot over gasoline rationing in Iran are the latest….notorious Evin prison in Tehran.” Arab-Iranian revolts will intensify econ pressure – will gut oil exports Taheri, 9-1, 2007 The Revolt of Arab-Iranians “According to data from the Foundation for the Martyrs, an organization…70 percent of the oil that Iran exports each day.” Prefer our ev: western media bias Taheri, 8-14, 2007 Iran Blacks Out Day of Protest “Inside Iran, some see global conspiracy to keep international opinion….information almost always ends up getting out.” Promoting revolution solves --- demographics favor the CP – but requires an unwavering commitment to regime change Ledeen, 2006 “Iran had three revolutions in the twentieth century….non-violent regime change, not revolution from the barrel of a gun.” Rev = short TF Hojatti, 7 “How quickly can regime change occur in Iran if the right steps are taken….are indicative of an unstable regime.” Iran will say no – its prolif is motivated by regional hegemony Dueck and Takeyh 2007 – Political Science Quarterly Volume 122 “tense relations with the united states” … “changing politics before considering an ap-proach to the Islamic republic’s nuclear challenge” iran doesn’t fear the u.s. security guarantees are irrelevant Nasr 2006 – the new republic, 12-18 “Iranian officials no longer fear america’s wrath” … “influence in Afghanistan, iraq, and the Persian gulf” public statements prove – iran says no to nukes AP 8-4-2007 “iran might eventually consider suspending uranium enrichment” … “we don’t need any security guarantees on the part of the usa” nuclear program isn’t a pargaining chip – offers similar to the plan have been made before on terrorism and were rejected Timmerman 2005 – stinet.dtic.mil – ed sokolski and clawson “the recent council on foreign relations report opines that the underlying” … “the united states will have no levers available should iran find a convenient excuse” 88 rumors of iraq withdrawal mean iran will say no Kurtz 11-13-2006 – national review “the democrats are already talking about pressing for a withdrawal” … “America as unable to take casualties or fight a long tough war” iran will reject security guarantees – memories Donovan – 29 fletcher f. world aff. 27 “Iranians hesitate to rely on the assurances” … “this apparent double standard convinces Iranians” iran will say no – Israel wood 5-31-06, newhouse news service “western diplomats have discussed possible security guarantees” … “nuclear weapons capability” negotiations overlook the basic character of the Iranian regime – it is hostile and will find was to ignore us gestures and respond with terrorism Ledeen 8-20-2007 – wall street journal, talking to iran “every administration” … “Iranians exploited the opportunity” … “Tehran has no interest in resolving it at a conference table” factionalism blocks solvency – nobody has the authority to negotiate Rubin 4-6-2006 – npr, the u.s. and iran what’s next? “the problem in iran is that the president” … “end up blowing up in our face” only hardline factions benefit from engagement Ruben 4-14-2006 – http://www.meforum.org/article/925 “western outreach empowers hard-liners and undercuts u.s. interests” … “incentives and guarantees can defuse the Iranian nuclear crisis” unconditional engagement creates the image that the u.s. is a paper tiger and encourages aggressive behavior dueck and takeyh 2007 – political science quarterly volume 122, 189-206 “to increase its diplomatic leverage” … “tehran’s own calculus of the costs and benefits of its nuclear program” only a combination of carrots and sticks can fracture the hardliners – a carrot only approach emboldens them dueck and takeyh 2007 – political science quarterly volume 122 “Washington still has those regional capabilities” … “might allow a faction of pragmatic hard-liners to outmaneuver” they’ll compromise enough to satisfy the west and then cheat to break the compromise if they’re caught greenblum 2007 – Houston journal of international law “Iranian negotiator ali larijani” … “muslim unrest in countries that oppose its nuclear program” iran has said yes and cheated before – the plan isn’t different devan 2006 – straits times 1-27-2006 “france, germany and Britain brokered a deal “ … “how man munichs need there be” khomeniei built the theocracy on the concept of taqiya – or religiously sanctioned lying – tie rubin 9-1-2006 – aei middle eastern outlook “Khomeini sought to establish” … “necessary to acquire nuclear capability” there’s a motive to cheat even if we lose our arguments about regime character Nicola 2007 – upi 6-14 “Khomeini sought to establish a theocracy” … “necessary to acquire nuclear capability” lack of a smoking gun means that domestic lobbies in the us will block the reemergence of containment after engagment starts Washington times 4-27-2006 – factiva 89 “elites in this country appear to be pushing” … “it would be foolish and dangerous to go through this again with iran” prefer our ev – a – history proves taheri 2006 – getting serious about iran: for regime change, commentary magazine “there can be little doubt that ahmadinejad” … “talk as a signal of weakness” … “hardened its position accordingly” b – regime ideology trumpts all of their arguments Berman 2007 – Washington times, détente with Tehran? “faced with the gravity of the current crisis” … “nuclear program is not a bargaining chip” 1. Iran will pocket concession – a. regime ideology means cheating is inevitable Kurtz 06 (“Doves Fly Toward Iran” 11/13, lexis) “Increasingly, it looks as though the United… So it behooves us to give some thought to the prospects for a deal.” b. its existing approach to EU negotiations proves Dueck and Takeyh 07 (“Irans Nuclear Challenge,” Political Science Quarterly, Volume 122, pgs. 189 – 206) “The concept of engagement through integration… well pre-dates the current administration.” 2. Negotiations overlook the basic character of the Iranian regime – it is hostile and will find ways to ignore US gestures and respond with terrorism Ledeen 07 (“Talking to Iran,” Wall Street Journal, 8/20) 3. Factionalism blocks solvency – nobody has the authority to negotiate Rubin 06 (“The US and Iran – What’s Next?” 4/6, lexis) “Mr. Cirincione: I think it’s been effective in giving us… within the Iranian government end up blowing up in our face.” 4. Only hardline factions benefit from engagement Rubin 06 (The Wall Street Journal, “Nuclear Hostage Crisis,” 4/14) 5. Turn – delay – a. further negotiations buy time to complete the nuclear program Gerecht 07 (“Dangerous Illusions; Peace-processing our way to disaster,” 6/11) b. This allows Iran to consolidate a global alliance with North Korea and risks global nuclear war Darr 06 (American Chronicle, “Setting the Stage for World War III”) “There are numerous parallels between the now forming… total war or total surrender.” 90 Emory DiMu T—must be QPQ CP—exclude Hezbollah—specific reasons Hezbollah is good Hebollah DA funding hez is necessary to solve for reconstruction efforts and stabilization of Lebanon. they are the only force able to solve. they also have mass public support cambanis 06 (globe staff, august 19th, "Hezbollah picks up the shovel" lexis Lebanese civil war spill sover to iran, Syria and Israel aikman 07 David aikman, www.ttf.org But in the middle east….syria proper "Another middle east war" escalation results in armageaddon Joshi 2000, Sharad Joshi, Israel's nuclear policy" a cost-benefit analysis attempts to disarm hez will fail, these attemps will cause ivil war and backlash Jahjah 07 Dyab Abou jahjah, "third time unlucky" http://weekly.ahram.org Diplomatic focus— Solvency takeouts—Hezbollah, etc. 91 Emory FM T—cannot be QPQ EU CP EU funding solves – The U.S. does not need to pay Anthony Cordesman, “Winning in Afghanistan: Challenges and Response” 2-15-07 “Afghanistan is going… local aid effort.” The US Is particularly bad at providing Assistance William Maley, 2006 “International support for… US$112.5 million.” PFTA DA Peru FTA won’t pass now – building support of Democrats key. Fortune 10-1-07 “With protectionism on… for U.S. workers.” Foreign assistance to Afghanistan broadly bipartisan. Rep. Mark Kirk, “Afghanistan Outlook,” 2007 “Thank you, Mr. … by narco-traffickers.” Peru FTA guts the amazon and causes global warming Greenwatch, 9-29-2006 “The scientific debate… extinction of humanity.” Extinction Bill Henderson, 8-19-2006 “The scientific debate… extinction of humanity.” IRAQ DA US is focused on Iraq – Rice is pushing al Maliki to compromise. AFP 9-12-07 “Secretary of State… she said.” The Plan is a distraction. Anderson and Grewell 2001 “Foreign policy is… group a year ago.” Success is key to successful US global engagement. Anthony Cordesman, 8-06-2007 “America’s performance in… in the past.” The impact is global wars Robert Kagan, August 2007 “It is easy… an easier path.” Against Iran: Regime Change CP—see other emory teams Democracy DA—see other emory teams 92 GMU HO T-Quid Pro Quo US-Turkish relations Corruption—funding weapons program Assad turns 93 Georgia CH Against Iran Sanctions: 1. Sanctions exist now 2. Economy is resiliant X Prolif Advantage: 1. Takes Ten Years X 2. No Spillover X 3. No Nuclear Terrorism X 4. Iran will say no X 5. US Engagement à Regional Prolif X 6. Nuclear Iran OK X 7. Increased Military Presence doesn’t mean Strikes are coming X 8. Engaging Iran is appeasement and destroys hegemony X 9. Engagement Destroys Hegemony X Moderates Advantage: 1. Iran won’t give up nuclear weapons X 2. Diplomatic Engagement takes forever—it will be delayed until after elections X 3. Security Guarantee won’t be honored and cheating leads to proliferation X 1. Democratic Engagement Counterplan The USFG should provide full funding and support for democratic transition movements in Iran until the regime change in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The USFG should not impose a new round of economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran Heritage.org, Groves “Advancing freedom in Iran” May experts argue…broader Middle East> Negotiations stop democratic reform www.washingtoninstittue.org, Clawson 2005 94 <A serious problem with any negotiations….autocrats to secure U.S. geostrategic interests> U.S. support strengthens revolutionaries WP 6-23-03 <Support for democratic revolution….instincts and traditions> NPR Engage, 11-23-05 <The most dangerous…Soviet Empire> Democratic transition undermines terror network Ibid <Kthere is athe broader strategic…Iranian revolution> 2. Law of the Sea Politics Disad: BUSH IS PUSHING TO RATIFY THE LAW OF THE SEA—IT HAS TONS OF SUPPORT—BUT WILL BE A FIGHT IN THE SENATE—PASSAGE NEXT MONTH IS KEY TO PREVENT GLOBAL WARS AND PREVENT DEVASTATING OCEAN DESTRUCTION Hamilton, 8-27-2007, director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington and director of the center on congress @ Indiana University, http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070827/Opinion/708270327/-1/LOCAL17 “Next month, the Senate will vote on…that success. It’s time to ratify this treaty.” AND BUSH SUPPORT IS A KEY TO INSURING PASSAGE International Herald Tribune, 8-27-2007 “A solemn international treaty known as the Law of the Sea Convention will…as the earth warms and the ice melts.” LINK—MORE POWERFUL FORCES SUPPORT ATTACKING IRAN THAN FORCES THAT OPPOSE IT—THE PLAN WOULD ALIENATE POWERFUL CONSERVATIVE INTERESTS Greenwald, 8/29/2007, (Glenn, Salon.com, p. Lexis) “The true danger here is that even if there would be…process of the Commander-in-Chief himself.” AND FAILURE TO PROTECT THE OCEANS WILL CAUSE EXTINCTION Oceans at Risk, 2005, (Oceansatrisk.com, 2005, “Empty Oceans, Empty Nets,”) “Oceans provide 95 percent of the living space for the earth’s…the earth’s web of life for future generations.” 3. Israel Disad 95 Georgia DM Against Afghanistan Chavez DA: A) The US has finally begun to challenge Chavez—continued US resolve is key to prevent his policies from becoming realityRoberts 8/20/07 (James, Research Fellow for Economic Freedom and Growth in the Center for International Trade and Economics at The Heritage Foundation, "If the Real Simón Bolívar Met Hugo Chávez, He'd See Red," http://www.heritage.org /Research/LatinAmerica/bg2062 .cfm)Slow Washington Response. Until recently, the United States has been too busy to worry about Venezuela… encourage true reform in the region.[94] B) Involvement in Afghanistan prevents US responses to Latin American “brush-fires” like the rise of ChavezWhitney 3/9/07 (Mike, frequent contributor @ Global Research, "Global Realignment and the Decline of the Superpower," http://www.globalpolicy.org /empire/challenges/general /2007/0309declinesuperpower.htm)The end of NATO is the end of …America will slip into a deep recession/depression. C) US failure to check Chavez undermines the spread of democracy and free markets in Latin AmericaDale 2/15/07 (Helle, Director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation, "Nuance in Chavez's Rhetoric Tells of Future Plans for Region," http://www.heritage.org /Research/LatinAmerica/wm1360 .cfm)Hugo Chavez, much …Chavez may come to fruition. D) This undermines global democratization Fauriol and Weintraub 95 (Georges and Sidney, director of the CSIS Americas Program + Dean Rusk Professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at Univ. of Texas, Washington Quarterly, Summer) Yet this triad … elsewhere in the world. E) The impact is extinctionCarnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict 95 (October, "Promoting Democracy in the 1990's," http://wwics.si.edu/subsites /ccpdc/pubs/di/1.htm) This hardly exhausts the lists of … prosperity can be built. LOST Good Politics Spanos EU does plan CP Consult NATO Topicality Foreign Assistance Aid Tradeoff—conservation programs—biodiversity impact 96 Iowa BS 1. Consult Israel CP - give Israel veto Consult key - Richard Holbrooke - Washington Post '06 "under the universally accepted" and "worsen and spread" 2. Appeasement DA Aggressive now - Boston Globe 1-31-07 Diplomacy strengthen - Gaffney/National Review 2-28-07 This leads to extinction - Kittrie 07, "Hudson's book was published" and "against rogue states" 3. Iraq Pullout ME PC = Iraq now and plan cost - Oxford Analytica 8/30 Ensures pullout - NYT 9-6-07 --> Regional war - Timothy Phelps, Forbes "Troop withdrawal 'mass killings' would occur" 4. Deter and Contain CP 5. Israel DA 6. Saudi Relations - US-Saudi relations predicated on containment, Saudis are driving containment now (Judis '07 - The New Republic "The United States has abandoned...to democratize the region") - Turns case - US leverage with Saudi key to solve oil shocks (Larson 2002, state.gov, "the relationship between the United States") 7. Security Council Unity DA 97 JMU LM Against Afghanistan: 1. Saudi Arabia DA - US/Saudi relationship at critical point - Peter Spiegel 07, LA Times 8/2/07 - American attempts to change ME --> Anti-American backlash in Saudi Arabia - Quid pro quo push Saudi Arabia closer to China - China uses ties w/ Saudi Arabia to create counterweight to the US - Competition b/tw US/China prevents solvency for world problems and increase risk war 2. China DA - The SCO opposes US actions in Afghanistan - China will use the SCO to prusue reunification with Taiwan - SCO/US conflict over Taiwan leads to massive nuclear war 3. Interest Rates DA - Uniqueness - The interest rates decrease stops a world wide recession - Link - The spending of the plan causes inflation - Internal link - The Fed raises rates to combat inflation - Impact - Economic decline casuse world war Case: Provincial reconstruction teams cannot solve because of the lack of specificity about thier duties 98 Kentucky CG 1. Topicality - Framework A) Interp - debate = Aff plan - they should have one - topic defined following colon (Webster 2000) - "resolved" - implement plan (American Heritage Dictionary 2000) - "should" = enact plan (AHD 00) - USFG = Washington DC (Encarta 2000) 2. Topicality - Quid pro quo A) Interp - Constructive engagement is quid pro quo (Chan 96 "By definition, a ... conditions by a specific date") B) violation - aff not quid pro quo C) RTP - limits: unlimited # of affs - ground - specific outlines of constructive engagement key neg CP and DA ground Heg Good K A) Link - K of Heg bad - risk X of heg - Kagan 98 ("those contributing .... American humbling") We need to face threats - Hanson 03 ("If one were... they pass away") Ceding to the AFF lead to genocide - Sowell 06 ("European nations...annihilated ourselves?") B) Impact 1) X heg --> aggression - Sowell 07 2) Impact = wars around the globe - Rosen 03 C) Alt - Align yourself w/heg - Kristol and Kagan 96 ("Twenty years ... moral confidence") 99 Kentucky AD The Japanese Parliament should increase its support of official development assistance by…. Counterplan solves the case—Japan’s foreign aid is effective and empirically successful-it’s looking for expanding its aid to the Middle East. Business Times Singapore 2006/ “A more global look for Japanese foreign aid,” December lexis “Japan’s foreign aid programme….Japan last week.” Japanese sp is on the brink—cp sends international signall necessary to revitalize Japanese soft power Tanka 2007, Hitoshi, Senior Fellow at Japan Center for International Exchange and former Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan, “Japan’s Policy Agenda for East Asia,” Vol. 2, No. 4, August, http://www.jcie.or.jp/insights/2-4.html, “There is no doubt that….and not behind it.” Japanese soft power is key to fighting terrorism, improving peacekeeping, preventing prolif, and reducing poverty Okada 2005, Katsuya, “Toward Realization of Enlightened National Interest—Living Harmoniously with Asia and the World”, http://www.dpj.or.jp/vision/vision-e/summary.html Russia Sphere of Influence DA --Unilateral US policies hurts US Russia Relations --US Russia relations key to prevent nuclear terrorism China Sphere of Influence DA --increased US involvement in the MidEast threatens Chinese Energy resources --Kills US China relations --good relations key to prevent war T—must be government to government—ARTF is via the World Bank—not USFG or Afghanistan T—must say Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 100 Mary Washington JR NUCLEARIZATION Iran will cheat Engagement leads to prolif Not developing weapons SANCTIONS Economy resilient Assumes past sanctions Impact inevitable Heg doesn’t stop war Won’t say yes Iraq is a key starting issues SOLVENCY Iran doesn’t care about pressure Iran doesn’t want to engage Revolutionary guards fists the plan Withdrawing from iraq key Off Case Args: NK politics US commited to NK deal, Korea Times 9-19 "I stated that...has made his choice" Conservatives will scuttle deal, Asia Times 9-20 "Neo-conservatives appear...for international peace" NK prolif --> terrorism, Campbell 06 (Hard Power: The New Politics of National Security, p. 230) "There are several... more broadly." ASPEC T – constructive engagement is unconditional Baker COUNTERPLAN – enforce secondary sanctions against nations that trade with iran and put a travel ban on the elite IRAN POLITICS A. Uniqueness and impact- hardliner incompetence is fueling a public backlash- this is the only scenario for democratic transition- this is key to a democratic and stable Middle East Takeyh, 06 [Ray, former professor of National Security Studies at the National War College, Hidden Iran, 54-55] THE WAY AHEAD Despite the…traditions of the Middle East. B. Engagement prevents democratic transition- it props up the regime, derails reformers and alienates the Iranian people Khalaji, 5-10-06 [Mehdi, "Perils and Promise of U.S.-Iranian Negotiations," http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2466] Negotiations between the United…survival in its current form. Impact is the case advantage 101 Demographics- Iran will give way to a more moderate pro-Western government now- engagement sustains the regime and alienates the public Berman, 3-15-07 [Ilan, "THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR CRISIS: LATEST DEVELOPMENTS AND NEXT STEPS,” testimony before congress, http://www.foreignaffairs.house.gov/110/ber031507.pdf] Perhaps the most compelling …. the political disposition of that country. Rafsanjani is making huge gains against Ahmadinejad- he’ll side with democrats and challenge the Supreme leader– AND this means we control uniqueness- no risk of a turn Scotsman, 9-5-07, "Taking a bite out of Iran," http://news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=1413702007 HIS sobriquet is the Shark…important role in Iranian politics A strong Rafsanjani guarantees democratic reforms Robert Tait, 9-5-07, "Rafsanjani election ups political stakes in Iran," http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpage/story/0,,2162677,00.html One of Iran's most illustrious politicians…position to rein in Mr Khamenei. Democratic Iran won’t pursue nukes- it would lack motive and will pursue integration instead- history is on our side Diamond, McFaul and Milani, Hoover Institution Iran Democracy Project coordinators, Winter 06/07 [Larry, Michael and Abbas, "A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing with Iran," The Washington Quarterly, http://twq.com/07winter/docs/07winter_mcfaul.pdf] Other instances of democratization…regional dominance through weapons. 102 Richmond DF Fox News Exclusive K The modern age is committed to a disavowal of tragedy. The triump of Socratic reason manifest in our attempts to order life and renounce suffering. This requires the construction of an ideal real in opposition to the apparent world of chaose and violecn.e Enter the AFf. In the modern drive toward certainty and secuty and, in an attempting at resolving disorder and insecurity, the plan labors to moold the world to make it fit into an idealized image of order. Saurette, ’96 (Paul, “I Mistrust all Systematizers and Avoid them: Nietasche, Arendt, and the Crisis of the Will to Order in Internaitonal Relations Theory,” Journal of Internatioanl Studies) According to Nietzsche…the Truth, and the Real The aff is only another breaking news tory warning us of the chaos which surrounds us ans compelling us toward resoling that chaos Unforutnatley, our attmepst at secuifng the world are admned to fail. It is not a coincidence that bbreaking news occurs every fifteen minutes because international politics are unpredictable. Terrorism is an ever prestn threat, a SARS outbreak is just around the corner, killer bees are invading our neighborhoods and there just might be poison in the hidren’s Halloween candy. The uncomfroable yet irresistible truth is that human life is dangerous. Rather htan coming to terms with this condition, the aff encourages us tto say sglued to the tv scre, stocking up on dcuct tape and water. AT tissue here is not just life but what makes life worth living. We encourage indifference and carelessness in a world inherently comprised of danger and insecurity in an attempt at reclaiming joy from the affimrative’s world of paranoid tiptoeing. Der Derian ’98 (The Political Subject of Violence p. 101-105) One must being with Nietzsche’s…risks and benefits Sept. 11, the war in Iraq, Katrina—all these events confirm the error and futility of predicting and managing crises. The scenario planning of the aff does not resolve threats but ironically turns them into the very catrastrophes we try to avoid. Der Derian, ’05 (“National Security: An Accident Waiting to Happen,” Harvard International Review) It often takes…”planned disasters.” The alt is to do nothing Nietasche, 1879 (Human, All Too Human) In favor of the idle…you sluggards? While we do not have an explicit blueprint for what a world of the alt would look like, the first step to real change is a committed step away from the existing order of things. Zizek, ’04 (“Iraq: Borrowed Kettle”) The stance of simply…kind of activity 103 Richmond KL “Offering K” sites (authors names may be misspelled) Regime change is the same as not regime change. It gives recognition to the fact that regime change was once a possibility. Burke in 2007 Beware of the rhetoric of a hand out. The offer of the aff is dangerous. Mistuk in 2007 Banning regime change is a joke. There is no difference between policy of regime change and non regime change. Campbell 2003. Vote negative on presumption. Leveritt 2005. Banning regime change reifies state policy regime. Reject the aff in the name of radical democracy. (Churchill or Kurkle)? 2007 Foucault is enough to turn case - we will pursue regime change elsewhere and in the same location under a different label. Aff is nothing but official rhetoric. Gewitt, 2003. Der Derian—Securitization Fear and Love alternative (same cites as their affirmative case) 104 Samford GR Politics—Iraq withdrawal bad scenario T Quid Pro Quo—must be conditional Secret memo CP Secret executive memoranda declaring that the United States will never strike Iran. Executive memorandums don’t even have to be published : no reason congress would find out Copper 2002: By the order of the President P. 85 “But there are significant … for that matter” Chinese soft power A) Uniqueness – China is capitalizing on decreased U.S. influence in the Middle East, boosting Chinese soft power Oxford Analytica 09.14.06, “Beijing's Influence Grows In Middle East” http://www.forbes.com/business/2006/09/13/china-mideastoxford-biz-cx_0914oxford.html Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic-consulting firm drawing on a network of more than 1,000 scholar experts at Oxford and other leading universities and research institutions around the world. Until the 1990s, there was…China in a powerful diplomatic position. B) Links 1. Oil dependency sets the stage for Sino-U.S. influence competition in the Middle East Power and Interest News Report 2006 [March 10, (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. ''China Becomes Increasingly Involved in the Middle East'' http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=455&language_id=1] While China and the United States … between the United States and China. 2. The Middle East is key to china’s world influence Power and Interest News Report 2006 [March 10, (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. ''China Becomes Increasingly Involved in the Middle East'' http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=455&language_id=1] However, events in these two … its status on the world stage. C) Impact – Chinese soft power is key to solving multiple nuclear war scenarios in Asia: the disad turns their Middle East conflict advantages Thomas Axworthy, 2003 (chairman of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, September 24, 2003, http://www.tibet.ca/en/wtnarchive/2003/9/24_1.html) Asia is the most dangerous… is in the interests of us all. Consult nato Consultation is key to keep NATO from collapsing Gordon 2003 [Foreign Affairs, February, volume 82 number 1 Even on an issue…Europe can manage on its own. Now is key Applebaum 2007 [The Star-Ledger, Lexis] It was a sunny day…damage done in Iraq. Genuine consultation on the Middle east solve relations Brown 2005 [ American Foreign Policy Interests, Vol 27 issue 2 p 61-80 Are transatlantic relations better…Israeli disengagement from Gaza. 105 Impact is prolif and terrorism Robertson 2003 http://www.nato.int/docu/speech/2003/s030506a.htm In our increasingly globalised…whenever they may come Diplomatic capital Bush is committing his diplomatic energies to Darfur Bush 07 [ The Christian Newswire, lexis At the same time…rebuild their lives in peace. Constructive engagement is diplomacy Crocker 07 [ Foreign Affairs, July/August, “The Art of Peace: Bringing Diplomacy Back to Washingon’ Failed and failing states…dealing with iran. Diplomatic currency is finite – the plan will trade off Anderson and Grewell, www.perc.org/pdf/ps20.pdf Greater international environmental regulation…access to foreign economies. Diplomacy ensures Khartoum will get serious about a peace deal CNN 07 Lexis I think one…so much for being here. Impact is genocide The guardian 05 – Final edition, august 3. Pg 23 The untimely death of Mr Garang…continuing the peace process. 106 Wake Forest MS --Against Syria Ptix – lost passing now, plan takes political capital, lost doesn’t pass South asia aid tradeoff: a. south asia funding stable—key to prevent conflict tobias 07 ”south and central asia... the need for our assistance.” b. assistance trades-off—earmarks ensure south asia will be targeted for cuts. Morrison and weiner 2k ”the constraints imposed by this... commercial and strategic importance.” c. impact – global nuke war fai ‘01 ”the foreign policy of the united states... does not justify complacency.” Eu cp – eu does the plan T – include = more than just f.a. or s.g. T- foreign assistance Case: Israel won’t strike Syria won’t strike Israel won’t give up golan/not inevitable Strategic depth turn Assad cred turn Syria doesn’t control Hezbollah -- 107 Wake Forest DM --Against Syria 1. The aff’s claim of a proxy relationship between Syria and Hezbollah is outdated—Syria no longer has any control. El Hokayam, 20007,http://www.twq.com/07spring/docs/07spring_elhokayem.pdf ”terms such as proxy and clint... hizballah is pro-syrian.” 2. Syrian crackdown on Hezbollah causes a backlash and escalation of conflict. washington institute, 2004, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templatec04.php?cid=18 ”hizballah is... unprecedented “explosion.” 4. Iran will fill in for Syria. Mark Langfan, 94 http://freeman.org/m_online/longfan/langfan3.htm ”return to the status... israel’s north.” 5. No risk of escalating Hezbollah attacks-rocket scares are IDF lies. Zvi Bar’el, 2004 ”how did the 8,000 grow into 11,00...new budget book.” 6. Syria won’t agree-return of the golan is a prerequisite to the cessation of syrian support of hezbollah. Shibley telhami, 2003 CONSULT NATO Text: The United states federal government should propose that it should... to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for binding consultation. The united states federal government should support the prposal during consultation. The united states federal government should abide by the results of consultation. We’ll clarify. The disposition of our counterplan is logical limited conditionality-the negative gets to run one counterplan, and they can revert to the status quo at any time. The squo must always be a logical policy option to prevent a policymaker from being forced to implement a bad policy-dispositionality is illogical because proving the counterplan is bad does not prove that the plan is good. It’s not topical – the cp tests the word resolved which means to make a firm decision about, it also tests the word should which is used to express obligation or duty, counterplans that test the resolution are key to predictable negative ground. Consultation counterplans are legitimat enegative ground on a fopo topic, it offsets the aff adv of selecting the grouhnd, is limited by net benefit literature, and the aff should be prepared to defend unilateral action. Even if we lose this, theory shouldn’t be a voting issue, rejecting the arg is sufficient, any other alternative causes substantive crowd out. The net benefit is NATO cohesion: Nato is at a critical turning point because of a lack of consultation-a renewed commitment is critical to cohesion. renee de nevers, 2007, International Security, Nato’s international security role in the terrorist era, pg. 34-66, project muse “This examination of NATO’s... commitment to NATO.” Prior consultation is necessary to prevent alliance collapse. Beatice Heuser, 92, “What Nuclear Strategy for Post cold-war europe?” 108 ”existing threats and risks... the smaller allies.” Collapse of nato causes multiple escalatory nuclear wars. John s. Duffiel, 94, “Nato’s functions after the Cold War,” ”Initiatl analyses of NATO’s... existence of nuclear weapos.:” T – Include is Restrictive 1nc Short A. interp – Include means consists of, excluding anything other than security guarantees and foreign assistance Justice Carley, 2006, http://ww.gasupreme.us/pdf/s06g0038.pdf ”ms. Berryhill argues that the word...”falls outside of the definition.”” B. Violation: the plan offers___, which is not a security guarantee or foreign assitance. C. Prefer our interpretation: 1. Limits 2. precision 3. Grammar D. voting issue Assad Cred DA: a. uniqueness – despite domestic opposition, there’s no risk of an overthrow now eyal zisser, 2005, Bashar Al-Assad: In or out of the new world order, the washington quarerly ”domestic tensions within... positively libertarian.” B. Link – us engagement crushes assad cred, anti-us is key to his cred. Emile El Hokayem, 2007, Hizballah and Syria: Outgrowing the proxy relationship, the washington quarterly ”The second major turning point... syria intensified in 2003.” c. impact – collapse of assad cred sparks war. eyal zisser, 2003, Moshe dayan center, winter 2003, Middle east quarterly, http://wwwmeforum.org/article/517 ”if the entrenched powerbrokers sense... could well resurface.”. Israel relations: A. Relations high – Arms Deal B. link – mearsheimer and walds card C. impacts – relatnios prevent wmd war in the me and nuclear terror khor, 99, “in an increasingly dangerous... countries such as iran.” d. nuke terrorism causes extinction alexander 03 2nc link: troops in golan post plan cause tension --Against Afghanistan 109 CP: US should condition assistance on Afghanistan establishing remunerative prices for licit alternatives to opium—solves drug production Boyce 03, (James K., Professor of Economics—University of Massachusetts, “Aid, Conditionality, and Economics”, November, http://www.umass.edu/economics/publications/2004-05.pdf Recent experiences in Cambodia….producers in the industrialized countries Afghanistan will agree to the CP Schetter 05 (Dr. Conrad, Bonn-based Centre for Development Research, Quantara, February, http://www.quantara.de/webcom/show_article.php/_c-476/_nr-325/i.html The US administration, in particular….one place may well fail in another Turns case—skyrocketing opium production makes Afghan instability inevitable Senlis 07 (Senlis Council, Security and Development Policy Group, “Poppy for Medicine”, June, http://www.senliscouncil.net/modules/events/London_event_on_afghanistan/documents/poppy_medicine_technical_dossier Afghanistan faces an unprecedented security and reconstruction…..development crisis cannot be resolved. Afghani drug production sustains global trafficking networks Peimani 02 Hooman, Analyst-Central Asia-Caucus Institute, “Afghanistan-based international drug-trafficking: a continued threat” 5-8, http://www.cacianalyst.org/view_article.php?articleid=1190 The opium and heroin production….and on the Afghan economy’s revitalization Global drug trafficking fuels worldwide money laundering schemes, risking economic collapse Shehu 2000 Abdullahi, Deputy Director Financial Crimes—Nigeria, “Money Laundering: The Challenge of Global Enforcement”, 11-9, www.crime.hku.hk/moneylaundering.doc There exists a symbiotic relationship between drug trafficking and money…the loss of confidence and credibility in the system; Global nuclear war Mead 92 Rice DA A- Rice is in control over Bush foreign policy and is preventing strikes—but if Cheney and the Neocons regain control, they will strike Iran Steven Clemons, 9-19, Senior Fellow and Director, American Strategy Program, September 19, 2007 Wednesday (Salon.com, HEADLINE: Why Bush won't attack Iran, p. Lexis) After this meeting, Bush immediately….And Iranisn President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad B- ***Link/Internal—The Plan destroys Rice’s Credibility and pushes Bush Back to the Neocons*** Jim Lobe, 2007, the Washington bureau chief of the Inter Press Service and a contributor to Right Web, March 12, 2007 Monday, (Foreign Policy in Focus, HEADLINE: A Real Realist Takeover?, p. Lexis) It has been Gates who, in contrast to Cheney’s….hawks, and realists C) That causes strikes on Iran—Rice is the last check on neocon control—Impact is world war three Heilemann ’07 special correspondent for Wired and a former staff writer for The New Yorker and The Economist, 2007, (John, New York Magazine, 3-5, Lexis) Condi on top; finally she’s wrestled…fallout from Iraq seem trivial 110 Wake Forest SW Consult NATO (went for it in round 1) U.S.—Saudi Relations U.S-Saudi Ties strong because of similar views on Iran <Gause, Tesitmony, 9-18-07 <The very fact that this large American arms sale> Saudis support hard-line stance New Republic -9-12-07 <In the Middle East, the United States has abandoned…undermine Iranians anyway they can> Bad relations mean the Saudis allow OPEC to switch to Euros, collapsing the economy FNS 9-17-04 <is the defense of the dollar…of dollar collapse> Bad relations cause said prolif New Republc 6-2-03 <there’s a less obvious argument….Saudis have the money to do so> Causes ME arms race Russian Press Digest 8-5-99 <this will most certainly fan up tensions> Quid pro quo The plan must give foreign assistance or security guarantee in return for __ CE Is conditional Crocker, Foreign Affairs, 1989 <Regarding South Africa, constructive engagement was by definition a conditional concept> Offer Requires a bargain Websters, 1996 <willingness to make and fulfill a contract or to bargain> Security Guarantee is a quid pro quo <SIPRI, “Security guarantees are issued on a quid pro quo basis> 2NC A topical plan must include a quid pro quo – its incentives must be conditioned on policy changes by the target country. Their interpretation allows hunders of small internal American decisions to be topical – stop sztargeting weapons at Syria, remove bunker busters from military plans against Iran, enlarge the assistance allocation for Afghanistan, forgive Lebanon’s debt, etc. We allow the aff good and flexible groundlike security guarantee or finanacial incentives if Iran stops nuclearizing, fund the Karzai government if they fight corruption, security guarantees to Sya if they rein in Hzebollah, assistance for Lebanon if they will support the Hariri tribunal, aid to Hamas if they renounce terrorism, and they get these for all five countries. “Offer” requires a bargain that can be accepted or refusie. n Can move bunker busters, list of T cases CE is a term of art which is conditioned on change by the target country The Times (London), 7/26/86 <invented the term ‘constructive engagement’, which, from 1981 has defined Reagan Administration policy> CE is diplomatic pressure, not sanctions LA Times 8-9-06 <Nickel was one of the architects of the Administration’s> CE mandates conditionality The European Union’s foreign Policy towards cuba, www.miami.edu/eucenter/Tzivelisfinal.pdf <”constructive engagement” is defined by “active trade and extensive diplomatic relations> 111 Wake Forest HR T include—must be both foreign assistance and security guarantee LOST—Bush good RICE DA A- Rice is in control over Bush foreign policy and is preventing strikes—but if Cheney and the Neocons regain control, they will strike Iran Steven Clemons, 9-19, Senior Fellow and Director, American Strategy Program, September 19, 2007 Wednesday (Salon.com, HEADLINE: Why Bush won't attack Iran, p. Lexis) After this meeting, Bush immediately….And Iranisn President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad B- ***Link/Internal—The Plan destroys Rice’s Credibility and pushes Bush Back to the Neocons*** Jim Lobe, 2007, the Washington bureau chief of the Inter Press Service and a contributor to Right Web, March 12, 2007 Monday, (Foreign Policy in Focus, HEADLINE: A Real Realist Takeover?, p. Lexis) It has been Gates who, in contrast to Cheney’s….hawks, and realists C) That causes strikes on Iran—Rice is the last check on neocon control—Impact is world war three Heilemann ’07 special correspondent for Wired and a former staff writer for The New Yorker and The Economist, 2007, (John, New York Magazine, 3-5, Lexis) Condi on top; finally she’s wrestled…fallout from Iraq seem trivial Diplomatic Focus—Iraq stability scenario—Hegemony good impact -1. T - include = more 2. RRW (nuclear violence)- Bush Bad Politics 3. NATO Consult 4. Mediation K 112 Wayne State GP Our IAC was our Neg - Zizek - death drive, ethical political, CP - Arm Iran Orientalism - Said ASPEC 113 Wayne State HK Topicality 1. Constrictive Engagement not QPQ. Dorsey Dictionary of Amer. Gov. and Politics 1988. a. Aff cond. Bad b. Ground c. Limits d. Denotative Defs best. DA’s 1. Assad DA a. Link-Const. Engagement=Cursh Assad Cred. b. Impact-Coup, Civil War. 2. Russia DA a. Link- US presence in Syria crowds out Russia views Syria Sphere of Inf. b. Imp- influence=weak Russia least to war with China. 3. Israel DA UNK- US/Israel relations high now. Link- Overturn toward Iran collapse relations. I- Relations key to solve terrorism. II- Terrorism leads to extinction. K’s 1. Zizek Capitalism a. Cap->extinction b. Plan= America super ego politics c. Super ego politics ->1AC harm replications d. Must withdraw from ideology of capitalism. Specifically Against Syria The attempt to democratize Hezbollah in a political party is evidence of the paradox of our strategic interest. Attempts to co-exist narrate the fictionally story of individual subjectivity->facilitates the real. Global Cap->extinction Unglobal cap is ultimate ethical response Alt-Withdraw from the ideology of capitol. Counterplan Binding consultatio with Israel on whether US should do the plan text. Solvency- Israel says yes- they are crucial to US. NB-1. Reviving genuine consultation with Israel is key to relations. 2. Consultation on ME is key to successful strats. 114 Wayne State NP Zizek: A) Links: 1) The expansion of American Oil intrests in Iran is central to the continued domination of global capital - the corporations are already lining up John Foster, "Naked Imperialism", 2006, pg. 92-93 "The U.S. Department of Energy projects that ... military power, on a global scale" 2) The United States has taken the role of the "sole-madman" in an attempt to conquer the violence and inequality that permeates our internal order. Paranoid that Iran's proliferation will threaten the global harmony that sustains the United States ideological primacy; it is the "Sole Madman's" responsibility to restore order in the Middle East Zizek, "Give Iranian Nukes a Chance", In These Times, 2005, http://www.lacan.com/zizekiranian.htm "On August 2, France, Britan, and Germany ... Constrain the global Hegemony of the United States" 3) The affirmative radically depoliticizes the economy - this can never obtain the dimensions of universaility because it precludes acts of authentic politics Zizek, "The Ticklish Subject", 1999, pg 352-355 "What one shold bear in mind, however ... its fundamental fantasy" B) Impacts: 1) Challanging global capital is the ultimate ethical responsibility. The current order guarantees social exclusion on a global scale Zizek and Daly, "Conversations with Zizek", 2004, pg 14-16 "For Zizek, it is imperative that we cut through ... in an otherwise sound matrix" 2) This desire to control the ideological direction of Iran justifies all forms of violence Zizek, "The Sublime object of Ideology", P. Introduction "This is to say, Lacanian ... abolition of democracy itself" 3) It is not possible to solve any situation without solving them all - only a criticism which attacks the universality of capitalism can solve their impacts and the inevitable destruction of the Earth and its people Zizek, "The Sublime Object", 1999 page 3-4 "It is upon the unity of these two features ... rationally governed society" C) Alternative 1) Our alternative is to completely withdraw from the ideology of capital - this is essential to destroy the fetish that allows capital to survive Adrian Johnston, "Culture & Society", December ver. 9 issue 3 pg 259, 2004 "Perhaps the absence of a detailed political roadmap ... I choose fetishism" 2) Our question of self-orientation precedes political action Adrian Johnston, "Culture & Society", December ver. 9 issue 3 pg 259, 2004 "The height of Zizek's philosophical traditionalism ... co-opted by it" Against Iran: Consult NATO : Text: Prior to the adoption of the plan, the USFG will initiate a process of binding consultation with NATO and propose that: [insert plan mandates]. During consultation, the US will allow NATO to propose modifications and alternative solutions. The US will implement the proposal as per the results of consultation. Funding and enforcement guaranteed Consultation is key to prevent the erosion of NATO Kissinger 2003. (Former secretary of state. The San Diego Union-Tribune. April 13. Lexis) 115 "America's two strongest allies on the European continent … reconstruction of the Middle East." Strong NATO is key to European security, Middle East peace, Stemming proliferation, and preventing terrorism Hunter, 2003. (Robert, Senior advisor at RAND and former ambassador to NATO. International Herald Tribune. May 26. Lexis "The United States needs France and Germany … Middle East and other parts of the world" NATO will say yes - they are concerned about Iran prolif and agree with diplomacy as a strategy Azerbaijan's Today, "NATO concerned over Iran's nuclear program", 2007, http://www.today.az/news/politics/38051.html "NATO has no military plans ... diplomatically," he underlined" Strikes C/P: Text: Through all necessary means the United States Federal Government should engage in a military campaign against the government of Iran for the purpose of regime change by utilizing an effects-based operation, targeting critical infrastructures, including electricity, communications, transportations, military, and industrial nodes. The United States Federal Government should support ethnic resistance groups, including the Kurds, Balochs, and Azeris, both logistically and financially, to turn sections of the country into autonomous zones. Funding and enforcement guaranteed. An effects-based strike ensures an end to Iranian nuclear program and regime change John Robb, Counter-Terrorism operation planner and commander, “Collapsing Iran”, April 2006, http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2006/04/collpasing_iran.html "To accomplish this regime change … termed a cohesive viable state " Net Benefits: Strikes Solve Terrorism Arthur Herman, "How to Fight Iran", New York Post, 2007, http://www.nypost.com/seven/01262007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/how_to_fight_iran_opedcolumnists_artuhur_herman_htm?page =0 "Ahmadinejad and the mullahs also know ... in the Arab street" Strikes solve prolif Peter Brooks, Heritage Foundation, http://www.theconservativevoice.com/category/179.html "What about U.S. airstrikes ... folly of its proliferation perfidy" Strikes solve Democracy Arthur Herman, "How to fight Iran", NY Post, http://www.nypost.com/seven/01262007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/how_to_fight_iran_opedcolumnists_artuhur_herman_htm?page =0 "It is this kind of attack ... Iranians may well do the same" Case Debate: Iran will use negotations to buy time: Michael Leeden, "United States Policy Toward Iran", 2006, AEI, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.24022.filter.all/pub_detail.asp "The first step in crafting ... nuclear issues of terrorism" Plan can't solve Iran motivations: Yaphe & Lutes "Reassessing the Implications for a nuclear armed Iran", McNair paper 69, 2005 (pg. 3) "As its quest for nuclear ... legitimacy and regime protection" 116 Iran wants to use their nukes offensively Gardiner and Hulsman, Heritage Foundation, "Confronting the Mullahs of Iran", 2006 "To put it midly, the new president ... leadership at its word" Diplomacy fails - strikes key Louis Beres, CSM, 2007, http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0508/p09s01-coop.htm "Iran's latest defiance of the ... would be entirly legal" Iran does not trust US Security Guarantees Charles Mayer, "National Security to Nationalist Myths", September 2004, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/mayer.pdf "Iran's leaders mistrust western guarantees ... possessing nuclear weapons" Against Afghanistan (Opium): Consult NATO (see Iran for shell) NATO supports the plan - they realize that the current strategy sucks and have been discussing a switch to legalization Spiegel, "NATO to legalize Afghanistan's Opium?", March 2007, http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,473933,00.html "Corruption. Crime. Addiction. And money for ... Southern part of the country" Case: Status quo solves Sweich and Lamar, "Legalizing production would make Afghanistan a narco-welfare state" May 2007, http://afghandevnews.worldpress.com "The current strategy - education ... chance of success" US can't legalize the opium trade Fazey, "Building a New Afghanistan", Chapter 8, pg 183, 2007 "It must be remembered ... opium poppy each year" Legalizing the opium trade won't work - not lucrative, no demand, not feasible, emperically fails, and hurts the economy US Embassy in Kabul 2007, http://kabul.usembassy.gov/uploads/images/SyEqN3nIayh1yFpxMBvfTA/fact_shrrt_0703_07.pdf "I. The Case Against Leglization ... dangerously reliant on one commodity" Licensing crushes US/India Relations Felbab-Brown, "Afghanistan Opposing Viewpoints", page 109, 2005 "How Much of the illicit economy ... market [would] increase" Strong relations with India are critical to prevent global destruction Tellis, 2006, www.carnegieendownment.org/files/ashleyjtessissrfctestimony.pdf "Finally, a strong American partnership ... US objectives is concerned Afghanistan will say nope Canadian International Development Agency, "Legalizing Opium Production in Afghanistan? Not the Answer", June 22 2007, http://geo.international.gc.ca/cip-pic/afghanistan/library/opium_prod-en.aspx?lang_update=1 "It has been the consistent and strongly held ... viable option in Afghanistan" No one would buy Afghanistan's opium because it would be more expensive than its competitors prices Embassy, "Rethink Afghan Opium Cull, Experts Say", July 4th 2007, http://www.embassymag.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=/2007/july/4/opium/ "But one idea that won't work ... higher than many other countries" Turn - Licensing increases the licit economy Fazey, "Building a New Afghanistan", Chapter 8, pg 195, 2007 117 "If paying farmers not to grow ... of the profits today" Zizek Links: 1) The stabliization of Afghanistan in the name of the war on terror is a ply to secure American economic relations - just as our intervention agaisnt the Soviets secured capitalism, now we want to protect pipelines for oil Josh Decker, October 2004, http://www.bolshevik.org/1917/no27/Terrorism%2015%20feb.html "Nine days after tha attacks ... American military into the region" 2) The drive to secure Afghanistan is rooted in our need to control the oil and gas reserves of Central Asia John Foster, "Naked Imperalism", Pg 76-77, 2006 "More recently, Todd Gitlin ... ideological limits" Afghanistan (Security Guarantee) Disads: None Available Consult NATO: See Iran for 1NC Shell Text NATO will approve the plan. They want nothing to do with leaving the region until it is fully stabilized BBC Monitoring, 2006, online "Senior NATO officials are concerned ... successful in Afghanistan" Case Democracy Promo Adv: Leads to transition wars Manfield and Synder, "Democratization and War". Foreign Affairs, May/June 1995, pg 79 "It is probably true that a world ... states that remain autocracies" Leads to ethnic conflicts Hobsbawm, "Spreading Democracy: The World's most Dangerous Ideas", Foreign Policy, September/October 2004 "While threatening the integrity of Universal Values ... a bleak prospect" Ethnic conflicts cause terrorism and global genocide Stavenhagen, "The Ethnic Question", Pg 84, 1990 "Finally, when ethnic conflict ... around the world" Causes protectionism Schweller, "American Democracy Promotion", pg 53, 2000 "First, free trade reinforces competition ... indpendent in their deliberative" Nuclear War Spicer, "The Challange from the East and the Rebirth of the West", 1996, pg 121 "The choice facing the west today ... premium in the years ahead" Causes Terrorism Mansfield and Synder, "Prone to Violence", The National Intrest, Winter 2006 "The Bush Administration has argued ... democracy more difficult" Extinction Alexander Super terrorism Pakistan Stability Adv: 118 No spillover - Afghani border is patrolled andMusharraf can stand up to any opposition such operations cause Mohan "What if Pakistan Fails? India isn't Worried ... Yet", Winter 2005, http://www.twq.com/05winter/docs/05winter_mohan.pdf "In the last few months ... political consequences" No risk of a coup - New Pakistan policies crack down on insurgents Shazad "Pakistan foils Coup Plot", October 2006, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HJ14Df02.html "A plot to stage a coup ... list mentioned above" Pakistan's military remains highly obedient - solves coup attempts Lieven 2002, "The Pressures on Pakistan", Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb, p 106 "Fortunately, the sik of Islamist ... matter of urgency" Even a worse case scenario of an Indo-Pak war would have virtually no effect on Europe or the US LA Times 2002, http://mailgate.dada.net/soc/soc.culture.soviet/msg01784.html "Although a nuclear exhange ... levels in those areas" MAD solves war LA Times 02, http://mailgate.dada.net/soc/soc.culture.soviet/msg01784.html "Experts such as Krepon and ... meet one on one, however" Social Cohesion, central governance, and popularity prevents Pakistan from falling Mohan "What if Pakistan Fails? India isn't Worried ... Yet", Winter 2005, http://www.twq.com/05winter/docs/05winter_mohan.pdf "Indian skepticism toward applying ... political parties credibility" Neg V Palestine: Israel DA A) Uniqueness – US-Israeli relations high now US Fed News, August 17th 2007, Lexis US Congressman Joseph Crowley ... calm can be achieved." B) Link - Israel sees any US engagement with Palestine as an attempt to corner Israel David Makovsky, “As Palestinians Come Together, What Is Next for U.S.-Israeli Cooperation?” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, March 2007, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2579 "Since Rice and Livni did not come to the idea of the political" C) Impact - Relations solve terrorism Jane Morse, Washington File Staff Writer, June 27th 2006, http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/library/news/2006/06/sec-060627usia01.htm "Washington -- Fighting terrorism and international crime ... challenge of transnational crime" 119 JV Affirmative 120 Clarion MT Ob 1 inherency _ Reconstruction and Stabilization funds for Afghanistan are insufficient and declining Captain Colucci, U.S. Army headquarters detachment commander for the Battle Command Training Program at Fort Leavenworth, 2k7 [Craig C., Military Review, May/June, proquest] U.S. R&S spending in Afghanistan falls short _ Aid outside the Afghanistan Compact process fails because it doesn't allow the Afghanis to use the monies where, and how, they are needed Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k6 [Barnett R., Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy, March, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Afghanistan_CSR.pdf] The Afghanistan Compact includes an annex _ the US is a prime violator of the Afghan Compact Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k6 [Barnett R., Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy, March, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Afghanistan_CSR.pdf] Three of the largest donors, however _ The US is pursuing eradication – no real energy is going to rural development Felbab-Brown, fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2k5 [Vanda, Washington Quarterly, Autumn, http://www.twq.com/05autumn/docs/05autumn_felbab.pdf] The U.S. counternarcotics policy in Afghanistan has evolved from _ The US is emplyoing a kill strategy versus the Taliban. This is backfiring as it is generating massive amounts of support for the insurgents Johnson, professor of of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, and Mason, senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, 2k7 [Thomas H. & M. Chris, Orbis, Winter, ScienceDirect] The Taliban, unlike Kabul, intuitively understood Ob 2 - implosion _ Afghanistan is teetering – implosion is likely without action Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k6 [Barnett R., Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy, March, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Afghanistan_CSR.pdf] 121 During his visit to Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan from March 1 to March 5, 2006, President George W. Bush praised Afghan successes _ Afghanistan is on the verge of capsizing Johnson, professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, and Mason, senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, 2k7 [Thomas H. & M. Chris, Orbis, Winter, ScienceDirect] After nearly thirty years of continuous war in Afghanistan _ Lack of reconstruction assistance is key Riedel, Brookings Senior Fellow for Political Transitions in the Middle East and South Asia, 2k7 [Bruce, Survival, Autumn, informaworld] Secondly, Afghanistan was put on the back burner and _ Lack of reconstruction assistance is key to the downfall of Afghanistan Johnson, professor of of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, and Mason, senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, 2k7 [Thomas H. & M. Chris, Orbis, Winter, ScienceDirect] Afghanistan today is in danger of capsizing in a perfect _ Current drug strategies push locals to the Taliban Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k7 [Barnett, "Salvaging Afghanistan," 3-1, http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2007/March/Rubin%2003-01-07.pdf] Finally, counter-narcotics policy in Afghanistan 2 impacts – 1, regional stability; 2 terrorism _ Afghanistan is falling apart as violence increases The New Yorker 7-9-07 [John Lee Anderson, "The Taliban's Opium War," lexis] Suicide bombings and I.E.D. attacks, major features _ This is snowballing into ethnic conflict in Afghanistan The Economist 7-28-07 ["Fighting for land and water; Tribal conflict in Afghanistan," lexis] SURROUNDED by mountains and carpeted with _ Karzai is on the verge of compromising with the Taliban which will split the country further The New Yorker 7-9-07 [John Lee Anderson, "The Taliban's Opium War," lexis] 122 Karzai, in his efforts to mollify his restive _ Rural Afghanistan is key to overall Afghanistan stability Jones 2k7 (Seth G., January 31, pg. http://www.rand.org/commentary/013107IHT.html ) The rising violence and the near certainty of a Taliban spring _ Afghan Stability is key to central Asian security and prevents spillover of the Taliban into other bordering countries. All of the Major Asian nations need Afghanistan to have a stable regime. Lal, 06 (Rollie, Rand Corporation, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin /GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) The Asian states neighboring Central Asia have historic links _ Central Asia conflict risks nuclear war Blank 2k (Stephen, June, pg. http://www.milnet.com/pentagon/Russia-2000-assessment-SSI.pdf ) In 1993 Moscow even threatened World War III to deter Turkish _ Afghanistan success key to our Middle East success – outweighs Iraq Lieven, Senior Research Fellow with the New America Foundation, 2k7 [Anatol, Middle East Policy, Spring, http://www.mepc.org/forums_chcs/47.html] De facto defeat in Afghanistan would be a catastrophic _ MIDDLE EAST WAR WILL GO NUCLEAR David, Professor of Policy Science at Johns Hopkins, Israel Affairs, Spring/Summer 1996, p. 95 Internal conflict in the Middle East heightens _ Taliban and Al Qaeda control of Afghanistan is increasing Johnson, professor of of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, and Mason, senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, 2k7 [Thomas H. & M. Chris, Orbis, Winter, ScienceDirect] Troubling indicators such as the relatively _ Healthy drug industry will lead to Afghanistan as a terrorist launching pad, again Bloomberg.com 8-8-07 [Janine Zacharia, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aQHmvqw4uHRY&refer=canada ] A State Department report earlier this year _ Al-Qaeda is on the verge of returning to Afghanistan. Failure would pose a significant threat to the US Captain Colucci, U.S. Army headquarters detachment commander for the Battle Command Training Program at Fort Leavenworth, 2k7 [Craig C., Military Review, May/June, proquest] Now, once again, the Taliban is operating 123 _ Stable Afghanistan is critical to winning the War on Terror – failure would be the ultimate signal to Al Qaeda that they have won triggering terrorism and undermining the economy Captain Colucci, U.S. Army headquarters detachment commander for the Battle Command Training Program at Fort Leavenworth, 2k7 [Craig C., Military Review, May/June, proquest] If, as some say, winning is no longer a possibility TERRORIST ATTACKS RESULT IN EXTINCTION Yonah Alexander; Senior Fellow and Director of the International Center for Terrorism Studies, 2/28/2002 (The University of Wisconsin Press; Terrorism in the 21st Century; http://www.wisc.edu/wisconsinpress/terrorism.html) The September 11, 2001 attacks in the Ob 3 – Drugs _ Afghanistan is breaking records with drug cultivation The Times (London) 8-10-07 [Richard Beeston, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2231556.ece] The United Nations is expected to reveal this month _ Involvement with the drug trade is off the charts - Afghanistan produces ninety percent of the global heroin Hughes, Former Chief of Staff - Afghanistan Reconstruction Group, U.S. Department of State, 2k6 [Louis, AFGHANISTAN – SUCCESS OR FAILURE?, 11-15, www.aicgs.org/file_manager/streamfile.aspx?path=&name=hughes1106.pdf] I already mentioned the huge drug problem impact is aids – drug routes key to aids, asia spread key, extinction (sorry no cites here – will add) Therefore the plan: The USFG should increase its constructive engagement with the government of Afghanistan by increasing funding for reconstruction and stabilization activities. The USFG will guarantee 25 billion dollars be provided over the 2007-2010 time period. Reconstruction funds should be directed thru the ANDS. Counterdrug efforts should target rural development activities. Or more recently: The USFG should increase it’s constructive engagement with the government of Afghanistan by pressuring Afghanistan to not negotiate with the Taliban and by providing Afghanistan with increased funding for reconstruction and stabilization activities. The US should guarantee 25 billion dollars be provided over the 2007-2010 time period. Funds should be allocated directly to the Afghanistan National Development System priorities and encourage direct Afghan participation when possible. You gots questions, ask 'em. Ob 4 Solvency _ A commitment to reconstruction is critical for a stable Afghanistan Captain Colucci, U.S. Army headquarters detachment commander for the Battle Command Training Program at Fort Leavenworth, 2k7 [Craig C., Military Review, May/June, proquest] 124 In October 2006, NATO's General Jones said efforts _ Reconstruction is the best bet for solving Afghanistan – signs of development are critical to regaining the trust of the people Johnson, professor of of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, and Mason, senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, 2k7 [Thomas H. & M. Chris, Orbis, Winter, ScienceDirect] The chief purpose of the resurged _ Without reconstruction all other endeavors are pointless Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k6 [Barnett R., Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy, March, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Afghanistan_CSR.pdf] All efforts to stabilize Afghanistan will fail if the licit _ Rural development critical to solving drug-generated harms Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, and Zakhilwal, senior policy adviser at the Afghan Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, 2k5 [Barnett R. & Omar, Wall Street Journal, 1-11, http://www.cic.nyu.edu/archive/pdf/Farmers.pdf] But while interdiction, not eradication, is therefore _ Placing aid within ANDS solves Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k6 [Barnett R., Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy, March, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Afghanistan_CSR.pdf] Recommendation: • International donors, and the United States in particular, Increased, multi-year funding is essential if we are to be effective in Afghanistan Hughes, Former Chief of Staff - Afghanistan Reconstruction Group, U.S. Department of State, 2k6 [Louis, AFGHANISTAN – SUCCESS OR FAILURE?, 11-15, www.aicgs.org/file_manager/streamfile.aspx?path=&name=hughes1106.pdf] From a structural side, we have not put in place 125 Clarion DE Ob 1 - Zombies are coming - zombies are a plague to humanity - an outbreak will trigger a global war - panic will cause the war to be unparalleled in human history - the war will impact the earth for decades and trigger extinction - the impact is worse than extinction because being undead outweighs being dead - zombies are in the middle east - zombies in afghanistan - zombies are being used by Palestinians, Syria, and Lebanon against Israel World Zombie News, 4-16-07 [http://www.zombieworldnews.com/archives/middleeast/middleeast.htm] - zombie attacks are underreported - zombies can cross borders/oceans so we're not protected all other zombie cards come from Max Brooks, zombie survival guide, 2k3 (book) plan: the USFG should increase its CE with (all topic nations) by providing security guarantees against zombies and a substantial increase in foreign assistance to fight zombies if the topic nations agree to work to prevent intentional and unintentional zombie outbreaks. Ob 2 Solvency - governments have the ability to solve zombies (2 cards) Ob 3 Parody - the 1AC is a parody designed to turn dominant understandings of culture on its head (Kulynych) - current conceptions of security are based on national imagery of war/peace (Foucault, Society Must Be Defended) - more parody good ev (sorry don't know all the sources - think Hutcheon and: McCracken, Professor of Spanish and Portuguese at UC-Santa Barbara, 98[Ellen, MELUS, Spring, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2278/is_1_23/ai_53501901/print 126 GMU LP US will strike Iran now- Germany’s refusal to impose sanctions pushes diplomacy off the table- strike will happen in 8-10 months The Jerusalem Post Sept 12 2007 (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1189411396419&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull) Germany's unwillingness to …the nuclear facilities. BUSH’S LATEST RHETORIC MAKE AN ATTACK ON IRAN IMMINENT Tim Shipman, Sunday Telegraph, September 4, 2007 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/02/wiran102.xml On Tuesday, President Bush … reactor in 1981 Contention Two- The Strike and Iranian Retaliation Iran will retaliate in 15 minutes San Francisco Chronicle 2005 /Borzou Daragahi, Staff writer, “Iran Readies Military, Fearing a U.S. Attack Tensions with Bush administration surge over Tehran's disputed nuclear ambition,” http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0221-24.htm Iran has begun …for a weapons program. Iran would lock down the Strait of Hormuz, decimate carrier groups, destroy ground forces, and coordinate terrorist attacks Timmerman, Nobel Peace Prize Nominee for his writing on Iran, 2006 (Kenneth, “Iran Readies Plan to Close Strait of Hormuz” http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/2/28/181730.shtml) Iran's Revolutionary Guards…. targets and against Israel, Open sea lanes in the Strait of Hormuz is critical to the economy. 6-22-2000 Oil resources and … competitive security strategy. That Leads to extinction Mead 92 Walter Russel Mead, Senior Fellow in American FoPo @ the Council on Foreign Relations, World Policy Institute, Hundreds of millions… in the 30s Contention 3- Transatlantic Alliance US-EU RIFT IS GROWING BECAUSE THE MILITARY OPTION IS ON THE TABLE THE GUARDIAN JANUARY 31ST 2007, www.commondreams.org/headlines07/0131-03.htm Senior European policy- area in weeks. AND, Engagement from Washington is critical to US-EU relations. Failure to engage means US-EU relations die. Ferguson & van Ham 2007 [Charles D. Ferguson, fellow for science and technology based in the Washington, DC office of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Peter van Ham, director of global governance research at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael in The Hague and professor at the College of Europe in Bruges, The National Interest, WINTER 2007) A major transatlantic multilateral, with Tehran. The EU-US alliance is critical to preserving US military, economic and political interests globally Hunter 2003 (Robert E., Sr. Fellow @ RAND, TWQ Winter, projectMUSE) The destinies of the United States… economically, and militarily Contention 4- Moderates Lifting sanctions leads to moderate power. 127 Brzezinski, Gates, and Maloney 2004 (Zbigniew, Robert, and Suzanne, “Iran: Time for a New Approach”, Council on Foreign Relations) Conservatives and hard-liners politically painful steps. AND, moderate, democratic Iran provides a model for regional transition to democracy Brzezinski, Gates, and Maloney 2004 (Zbigniew, Robert, and Suzanne, “Iran: Time for a New Approach”, Council on Foreign Relations) Iran thus lies … more democratic order. Democracy in Iran would spread throughout the Middle East Ledeen, 03 (Michael. November. “Nothing to lose but their chains) http://aei.org/publications/pubID.19506,filter.all/pub_detail.asp Iran is ready the liberation of Iraq Democracies are key to prevent extinction Diamond 1995 [Larry Diamond, senior research fellow for Hoover Institute, professor at Stanford University, and co-director of National Endowment for Democracy International Forum for Democratic Studies, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives,” 1995] This hardly exhausts ….sovereignty, and openness. Plan Text- The United States Federal Government should offer the Islamic Republic of Iran a security guarantee that the United States will not preemptively strike Iran. The United States should also offer dialogue with The Islamic Republic of Iran. Contention 5- Solvency Constructive dialogue and engagement is only possible with Iran if we stop threatening to attack them. Richardson, 07 [Bill Richardson. New Mexico Governor. Engagement with Iran and Foreign Policy in the Middle East. July 27, 2007. DES5] However, no constructive … in the future. détente with Iran gives moderates power that would create a situation in which Tehran’s relationship with Washington is more important than terrorist ties or the pursuit of nuclear weapons. Takeyh 07(Ray. Foreign Affairs, March/April. “Time for Détente With Iran” The most effective way …its national objectives. Security guarantees and engagement solve. Iran will respond constructively and disable their authoritarian systems. Carpenter 2007. (Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, “Don't Take Covert Action Against Iran” May 25, 2007) Rather than go … growing middle class. Engagement with Tehran solves relations, proliferation, Iraq, regional stability in the Middle East, the war on terror, energy security, Israel, and global leadership. Flynt Leverett 2006 “Dealing with Tehran: assessing U.S. Diplomatic Options toward Iran” Century Foundation Report, pp. 1-30) In the end… security and standing. The plan helps normalize relations by bolstering Iranian pragmatism. A cooperative relationship with Iran is the only hope for peace. Takeyh 2007 (Ray, Senior Fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations, “Time For Détente with Iran”, Foreign Affairs April/May) Over five …foe, the better. 128 John Carroll BC 1. Inherency – Bush blocks peace deal UPI explained on July 11, 2007 (news.monstersandcritics.com/middleeast/features/article_1328655.php/Rumors_of_war_talk_of_peace) Assad, I`m ready to hold direct negotiations for peace Plan: The United States Federal Government will constructively engage Syria. The United States will offer normalized relations, abandonment of efforts for regime change, and support for return of the Golan in accordance with Track II negotiations in exchange for peace between Syria and Israel, an abandonment of its Iranian alliance, full cooperation on terrorism, pressure to moderate Hamas and Hizbollah, and assistance in resolving issues in Iraq. The agreements will be negotiated quid pro quo. Funding and enforcement through normal means. Advantage 1: War At crossroads of war between Syria and Israel The Mideast Mirror, July 23, 2007, (L/N Regaining the Golan Heights by peaceful means or by war is the only means of securing Syrian national legitimacy Any Syrian-Israel war would spread like wildfire. The Global News Wire – Asia Africa Intelligence Wire, July 11, 2007. L/N If a war comes in the near future, Syria could also count on Hamas to open yet another front against Israel from Gaza. The war will not be restrained, Israel Today July 17, 2007 http://www.israeltoday.co.il/default.aspx?tabid=178&nid=13461 confirmed that the army is preparing for a full-scale war with Syria in the very near future. constructive engagement solves quickly Gabriel Kolko March 30, 2007: http://www.counterpunch.org/kolko03302007.html /bgb A treaty could be finalized with Syria within four to six months Both Syria and Israel would love the plan. David Kimche, August 4, 2006 http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/2006/08/more-calls-to-engage-syria.htm Washington Monthly /bgb The Syrians would dearly like to mend their fences with the Americans and emerge from their present isolation. constructive engagement is the ONLY way to bring peace Sinderbrand, August 5, 2006 http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/2006/08/more-calls-to-engage-syria.htm Washington Monthly /bgb most EU governments believe the path to peace runs through Damascus Advantage 2: Iraq The war in Iraq continues due to insurgents entering Iraq through Syria. Raghavan 2007 (Washington Post, July 12, 2007, L/N) Bergner said al-Qaeda in Iraq was responsible for 80 to 90 percent of the suicide bombings collapse leads to civil war, Gitz 2007 Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, April 15, 2007, L/N) /cds we can identify at least three possible, overlapping scenarios for Iraq Engaging Syria is the key to solvency. David Ignatius, December 15, 2006 The Washington Post, L/N What positions would Syria take if it entered a dialogue with the United States about Iraq 3. Iraq Syria is the key to global anti-terrorism efforts. Matthew Levitt September 19, 2002, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=1538 /bgb Inducing Syria to abandon its support for terrorism Syria provides support for al-Qaeda Matthew Levitt, September 19, 2002, Washington Institute for Near East Policy senior fellow in terrorism studies, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=1538 /bgb Syrian support for terror undermines The result is global nuclear terrorism Charles D. Ferguson, March 2006, www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/NucTerrCSR.pdf /bgb The threat of a nuclear attack by terrorists has never been greater. Syria solves Ben Meir February 16, 2006 United Press International Outside View: A strategic choice L/N AL The Bush administration should instead persuade Syria 129 Mary Washington HS Plan Text Thus the plan: the United States Federal Government should guarantee not to threaten Iran's sovereignty or territorial integrity if Iran agrees to end significant production of enriched uranium and agrees to rotor speed limits on all centrifuges. 1ac w/ cites Now is the critical time to change Iran policy - they are reaching the point of no return for nuclear weapons BBC News , staff writer, 9/2 /20 07 ["Iran reaches key nuclear goal," http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6974903.stm] Mr Ahmadinejad said ... within nine to 11 months. A nuclear Iran ensures regional proliferation, a multiparty arms race, and nuclear war Allison , Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs director , 3-18- 06 [Graham, "The Nightmare This Time," The Boston Globe, l/n] If Iran crosses its nuclear finish line, A multiparty nuclear arms race in the Middle East would be like playing Russian roulette with five bullets in a six-chamber revolver-dramatically increasing the likelihood of a regional nuclear war. A nuclear Middle East would not be stable- deterrence will be unable to prevent cascading proliferation, nuclear war and nuclear terrorism Kurtz, Ethics and Public Policy Center senior fellow , 8-29- 06 [Stanley, "Our Fallout-Shelter Future," National Review, l/n] Rosen assumes (rightly I believe) that proliferation is unlikely to stop with Iran . escalating into nuclear confrontations . Iran's regime presents a unique scenario for nuclear terrorism- no other state actively supports terrorism Representative Jim Saxton , House Armed Services Subcommittee on Terrorism , Unconventional Threats & Capabilities chair , Jan/Feb 07 , "Reshaping our Iran policy," The National Interest, infotrac IN RECENT issues of The National Interest, that controls the capability . Nuclear terrorism risks world war and extinction, even if it doesn't work Mohamed Sid-Ahmed , Al-Ahram Weekly political analyst, ' 04 [Al-Ahram Weekly, "Extinction!" 8/26, no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm] Miscalculation and lack of communication guarantee war- engagement is necessary to create viable deterrence Berman , American Foreign Policy Council VP , 07 [Ilan, "THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR CRISIS: LATEST DEVELOPMENTS AND NEXT STEPS, testimony before congress, 3-15-07, http://www.foreignaffairs.house.gov/110/ber031507.pdf ] Some analysts, in turn, in the traditional sense of the word. 130 AND- a nuclear Iran would massively raises the likelihood of accidental launch Allison , Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs director , 3-18- 06 [Graham, "The Nightmare This Time," The Boston Globe, l/n] Accidental or unauthorized nuclear launch A new nuclear state goes through prospects of a nuclear weapons launch . This guarantees full-scale nuclear escalation and the death of billions Forrow 98 [Lachlan, (et. al Harvard Medical) THE NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, April 30, 1998, p. http://www.nejm.org/public/1998/0338/0018/1326/5.htm# ] Public health professionals indirect causaulties worldwide Contention Two: Central Asia US engagement with Iran is crucial to Central Asian energy diversification- pressure prevents the necessary investment and technology Andrew Symon , 7-13- 06 , "Russia looks both East and West," Straits Times (Singapore), l/n Longer term, Iran is critical needed for its development US antagonism toward Iran has a chilling effect on Central Asian energy exports- giving Russia control Dr. Simbar , Guilan University political science professor , 05 [Reza, "The Prospect for Crisis Management and Non- Violent Sustainable Cooperation," Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol.4, No.4, Winter] By blocking Iranian transit routes, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and China. Central Asian energy diversification is crucial to Central Asia independence and sustaining global economic growth and stability Cohen , Heritage Foundation Institute for International Studies Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security senior research fellow , 96 [Ariel, Ph.D., "The New "Great Game": Oil Politics in the Caucasus and Central Asia," Jan 25, http://www.heritage.org/Research/RussiaandEurasia/BG1065.cfm] The vast expanses of the former sphere of influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The brink is now- abandoning Central Asia green-lights Russian adventurism and makes conflict inevitable Blank , US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute National Security Affairs research professor , 07 [Stephen J., "Russian Democracy, Revisited," Journal of International Security Affairs, Spring, http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2007/12/blank.php ] Under the circumstances, the incoming Putin regimes.5 Russian neoimperialism guarantees nuclear war- even absent imperialism, dependence guarantees accidental conflict and economic collapse Cohen , Heritage Foundation Institute for International Studies Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security senior research fellow , 96 [Ariel, Ph.D., "The New "Great Game": Oil Politics in the Caucasus and Central Asia," Jan 25, http://www.heritage.org/Research/RussiaandEurasia/BG1065.cfm] Much is at stake in Eurasia Moscow's sphere of influence in the southern CIS . AND Economic collapse causes nuclear war and extinction 131 Bearden , U.S. Army (Retired), 2000 [T.E., LTC, U.S. Army, "The Unnecessary Energy Crisis: How to Solve It Quickly," http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3aaf97f22e23.htm , June 24] Central Asian prosperity is key to prevent interstate conflict escalation Peimani , University of Bradford Department of Peace Studies Central Asia and Caucasus specialist , 02 [Hooman, Failed Transition, Bleak Future: War and Instability in Central Asia and the Caucasus, p. 138] Unless the current pace of events is stopped , therefore become the major preventive measure . This is the most likely scenario for nuclear war Blank , Strategic Studies Institute former Soviet states expert , 2000 [Stephen, "U.S. Military Engagement with Transcaucasia and Central Asia," http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/docs/Blank2000.pdf , pg. 24-5] In 1993 Moscow even threatened Trans caucasus makes the danger of major war there higher than almost everywhere else. Observation Three: Solvency Iran's pursuit of nuclear power is creating a crisis- unless the US offers concessions to Iran the issue will be irresolvable- Iran will pursue weaponization and miscalculation guarantees pressure will escalate to war Abrahamian , Baruch College Middle Eastern history professor , 07 [Ervand, interviewed by David Barsamian, Targeting Iran, written by David Barsamian, 71-75] I would say the present crisis is not so much of a group wanting war including, of course, military strikes if necessary. Compromising on rotor speed is the perfect deal to prevent proliferation- it saves Iran face, appeals to global and Iranian opinion and allows effective monitoring Clawson and Eisenstadt , Washington Institute for Near East Policy research deputy director , November 06 [Patrick, former National Defense University research professor and former IMF, World Bank, and Foreign Policy Research Institute senior economist, and Michael, Washington Institite's Military and Security Studies Program director, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran's Leaders," google] Similar creative compromises should be sought ill-considered measures , debated only by diplomats without adequate consultation with technical experts, that end up being speed bumps that only slow down Iran's nuclear program . Security guarantees are key solve- it's a real incentive that changes the nature of relations and strengthens moderates Larrabee , RAND European Security Chair , 3-9 -06 [F. S., "Defusing the Iranian Crisis," http://www.rand.org/commentary/030906OCR.html ] The negotiations between the E uropean U nion troika (Britain, France and Germany) have failed largely around President Ahmadinejad and result in a less intransigent Iranian nuclear policy. Engagement is key- pressure strengthens hardliners by allowing them to appeal to nationalism- security incentives will strengthen pragmatists who advocate rapprochement Takeyh , CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) senior fellow, 3-13- 06 [Ray, "Dealing with Iran's nuclear ambitions: four approaches; Continued pressure could backfire," http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0313/p09s01-coop.html ] The Bush administration can applaud itself for finally managing Iran's demagogic president but also restrain the Islamic Republic's impetuous impulses. Reaching out to the pragmatists solves- Khamenei has ensured they have a voice on the nuclear issue Takeyh , CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) Middle Eastern Studies senior fellow and top Iran expert, 06 [Ray, former professor of National Security Studies at the National War College, Hidden Iran, 146-54] In the Islamic Republic's informal governing structure, 132 serve Iran's strategic interests . Engaging over the nuclear issue facilities a broader rapprochement and ends Iran's support for terrorism Takeyh , CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) Middle Eastern Studies senior fellow and top Iran expert , 06 [Ray, former professor of National Security Studies at the National War College, Hidden Iran, 225-6] By far the most entrenched of Iran's positions is its opposition to the peace process, an opposition New Advantage—Oil Prices Nuclear Iran would be emboldened to spike oil prices Sokolsk Nonproliferation Policy Education Center executive director Julyor Iranian oil shocks will collapse the economy Cordesman, CSIS Strategy Chair, and Al-Rodham, CSIS Visiting Fellow 2006 Economic collapse leads to nuke war Bearden 2000 2ac Tricks, Add-Ons, Nuclear accidents add on Engagement is critical to prevent nuclear meltdowns- status quo pressure prevents access to reliable safety technology Meshkati, University of Southern California Civil/ Environmental Engineer and Industrial and susyem Engineering professor 7/11/2007 (Najmedin, Interview: Waiting for an Iranian Chernobyl http://www.newscientists.com/channel/opinion/mg19526121.600-interviewwaiting-for-an-Iranian-chernobyl.htm) Throughout my career I have been…Japan’s enrichment plant in Tokaimura in 1999 Meltdowns cause extinction Caldicott (Helen, Nuclear Madness: What You Can do pg 21-22) As a physician I content that nuclear technology threatens… be affected unless we bring about a dramatic reversal of the world’s pronuclear choices Iraq add on Tehran has the ability and motive to stabilize Iraq- but only if it has security guarantees from the US- the alternative is civil and regional war Nasr, CFR senior fellow 06 (Vali, “When the Shiites Rise” http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060701faessary85405/vali-nasr/when-the-shiitesrise.html?mode=print) And yet, in the longer term, US and Iranian interests in Iraq….in southern Iraq only if it receives broad security guarantees from Washington 133 Trinity OV Jackson & Chantal -Trinity University Ob 1: Inh A) Current microfinance projects aren’t sufficient- don’t target rural areas Fakiri 2k4 (Katrin, July, pg.http://www.uncdf.org/english/microfinance/pubs/ newsletter/pages/july_2004/featured_guest4.php) “Increase Micro Entrepreneurs…for economic growth.” B) rural afghanistan is THE KEY TO OVERALL AFGHANISTAN INSTABILITY Jones 2k7 (Seth G., January 31, pg.http://www.rand.org/commentary/ 013107IHT.html) “But a military…of the insurgency” Ob 2: Central Asian Stability A) First- Afghanistan is on the brink of a total collapse Mulrine 2k7 (Anna, 7/8, pg. http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/ 070708/16afghanistan.htm) “These are pivitol…of popular support” B) Afghan stability key to C.A. stability and prevents spillover of the Taliban into other bordering countries Lal, 06 (Rollie, Rand Corporation, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) “regional states are…own security interests” C) Central Asia is the most likely scenario for global nuclear war Blank 2k (Stephen, June, pg. http://www.milnet.com/pentagon/Russia-2000-assessment-SSI.pdf) “many Third World…almost anywhere else.” D) U.S. success would moderate tensions in Central Asia – solves India-Pakistan conflict Millan, 03 (Colonel G. Joseph, US Army, “Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan: A Global, Strategic Nemesis,” Army War College, 704, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A414543&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) “By virtue of…decades to come” E) India Pakistan war risks extinction Washington Times 2K1 (July 8, LN) “The most dangerous…enjoy no sanctuary.” Ob 3: Soft Power A) Soft power continues to decline Nye 2K6 (Joseph, aff author, Washington Post, “Why do they hate us?”, June 25, pg. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2006/06/22/ AR2006062200972.html, accessed 6/30/06, AJJ) “the Bush administration’s…in recent years.” B) Economic Assistance is critical to developing soft power ( Anatol Lieven, award-winning author, former senior associate for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and former editor at the International Institue for Strategic Studies in London, "Spend More on Making Wealth, Not War", Financial Times, June 26th, 2007.http://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2007/ spend_more_making_wealth_not_war_5586 , accessed August 1st, 2007.) “Generous U.S. development…welter of corruption” C) Plan key to reaching out to the Muslim world – this is critical to soft power Benjamin 2k1 (Medea, December 6, pg. http://www.commondreams.org/views01/1206-07.htm) “If Afghanistan is…the Afghan people.” D) Soft power key to U.S. Heg Nye 2K6 (Joseph, aff author, Washington Post, “Why do they hate us?”, June 25, pg. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2006/06/22/ AR2006062200972.html, accessed 6/30/06, AJJ) “Anti-Americanism obviously feels…policies on Iraq.” E) that solves nuke war Khalilzad in 95 (Zalmay, Washington Quarterly, Spring, LN) “the United States…global nuclear exchange” Ob. 4: Women’s Rights A) Women’s rights in Afghanistan are a sham – it is one of the most patriarchal societies that exist today Emandi 2k2 - development consultant, Phd, Woodrow Wilson Center Fellow-2002 (Hafizullah, "Repression, Resistance and Women 134 in Afghanistan" p.30) “Women in general…are corrupt, putrid” B) A lack of microfinance ensures violence against women throughout Afghanistan Cheston and Kuhn, 2002 [Susy, Senior Vice President, Policy and Research, Opportunity International, and Executive Director Emeritus of the Women’s Opportunity Fund, and Lisa, Program Analyst, Opportunity International, “Empowering Women through Microfinance”, UNIFEM, http://www.microcreditsummit.org/papers/empowerment.pdf, p. 21] “Hashemi et al….to the household.” C) Violence against women makes all forms of violence possible – including nuke war New York Times 83 (December 29, LN) “violence against women…between the sexes.” D) and violence is intertwined – gendered violence acts as a catalyst for other types of genocide and ethnic cleansing Amnesty International 98 (October 1, pg. http://news.amnesty.org/library/Index/ ENGACT310061998?open&of=ENG-347) “They were largely…of their identity.” E) micro-loans are critical to the emancipation of women – they are a catalyst for broadersocietal change Heyzer-2k Executive Director, UNIFEM, 6-5-2000( Noeleen, "General Assembly Special Session, Women Action 2000: Equality, Peace and Development for the 21st Century, New York"Microcredit: More Than Access to Money) “The fact that…of social capitol.” Ob 5: Terror A) America is failing its performance in the war on terror New York Daily News, 2007 [James Gordon Meek” Terror experts agree: U.S. still not safe” July 22, LexisNexis] “Homeland Security Secretary…fire,’ he added.” B) We must act now- Afghanistan is the center of terrorism and failing in Afghanistan will lead to an increase in terrorism. Guardian Unlimited, August 1, 2007 [“Cameron: Afghan action must succeed” http://www.guardian.co.uk/uklatest/story/0,,6820562,00.html] “’There is no…’Britain and Europe.” C) Terrorism leads to extinction Alexander 2K3 (Yonah, Washington Times, August 28, LN) “Last week’s brutal…its serious implications.” Plan: The United States Federal Government should increase its policy of constructive engagement with the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan by offering a substantial increase in foreign assistance through micro-credit finance loans in exchange for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan allocating and targeting the micro-credit finance loans to the rural areas of the country. Ob 6: Solvency A) U.S. should fund micro credit loans – this solves rural Afghanistan and the Drug trade Benjamin 2k1 (Medea, December 6, pg. http://www.commondreams.org/views01/1206-07.htm) “The US must…growing opium poppies.” B) U.S.microassistance solves soft power and avoids traditional aid bad arguments- it’s key to a stabile afghanistan Banjamin 2K1 - Global Exchange Women's Delegation to the Region- 12-6-01 (Medea , head of Global Exchange finding trip, "Reconstructing Afghanistan" Global Exchange) “People wondered if…growing opium poppies.” C) Micro-loans given to Afghan women will spur economic empowerment which improves lives and maintains peace and stability Rowan and Di Florio 2k3 - founder of Afghan Women Leader Connecy and di Florio - Program Manager April 03 (Diana and Jasmine, Investing in Afghan Women Leaders: Strategic Grantmaking in Afghanitan") “Poverty has had…peace and stability.” D) us is critical to other countries modeling and paying attention to afghanistan Rashid 2k6 (Ahmed, 11/9, pg. http://english.daralhayat.com/Spec/09-2006/Article-20060911-9d429db1-c0a8-10ed-00c97dfdf24cea98/story.html) “Without adequate U.S….around the world.” E) economic aid solves terrorism and opium production Wadhams 2k7 (Caroline, June 6, pg. http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/ 2007/06/stable_afghanistan.html) “economic aid package…to our enemies” 135 Army HX Observation one is the status quo: 1.) AFGHANISTAN IS THE PARAMOUNT EXAMPLE OF HOW PROGRESS AND STABILITY ARE IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT COMPREHENSIVE JUDICIAL REFORM. IN THE STATUS QUO THE AFGHAN PEOPLE HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE RULE OF LAW. WARLORDS DOMINATE AND DICTATE THE JUSTICE SYSTEM IN THE RURAL PROVINCES WHERE A MAJORITY OF THE DRUG TRAFFICKING, BRIBERY and corruption takes place. Refugees International, 2004 (01/28/ No Peace without Justice: Lessons from Haiti for Afghanistan) /CWEB 2.) A CONFERENCE CONCERNING THE STATE OF THE AFGHAN JUDICIAL SECTOR WAS HELD IN ROME DURING JULY OF 2007. instead of drafting a comprehensive plan to address the situation, THE OUTCOME OF THE ROME CONFERENCE WAS AN INEFFECTIVE AND SHORT SIGHTED INITIATIVE THAT IS DOOMED TO FAIL. THE NEW “PLAN” LACKS any MECHANISMS OF IMPLEMENTATION AND SIMPLY CONTINUES TO THROW MONEY IN THE SAME CHANNELS THAT HAVE FAILED IN THE PAST. BBC ASIA, 2007 BBC Monitoring South Asia – Political, July 5, 2007, “Afghan paper says Rome conference "occasion of defeat"/LEXIS/CWEB) Thus the plan: Resolved: The United States Federal Government should increase its constructive engagement with the government of Afghanistan by providing foreign assistance for judicial reform to the Ministry of Rural Development and Health of the Afghan government. Funding and enforcement through normal means. ADVANTAGE ONE: human rights 1.) THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS ALMOST ENTIRELY IGNORED PRISON AND LEGAL REFORM IN AFGHANISTAN LEADING TO DEPLORABLE JAIL CONDITIONS AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES. HORRENDOUS JAIL CONDITIONS, RAPE AND TORTURE BY WARLORDS ARE RAMPANT ACROSS THE RURAL AFGHAN COUNTRYSIDE WHERE 70 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION LIVES. JUDICIAL REFORM IS KEY TO ALLEVIATING THE SITUATION and stopping a SLIPPERY SLOPE OF REGIONAL INSTABILITY Rashid, 2003 Afghan warlords killing at will By Ahmed Rashid - Lahore The Age (Australia), February 1, 2003/CWEB 2.) judicial reform in afghanistan can solve the human rights abuses that are still occurring there. by initiating justice seeking reforms with the monetary support required, afghanistan can create an environment that protects human rights now and in the future. HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH, 2005 (July, 2005/cweb) 3.) THE ROOT OF CONFLICT AND ESCALATION IN MOST INSTANCES IS A FAILURE TO PROTECT HUMAN RIGHTS. PRIORITIZING THIS PROTECTION IS CRITICAL TO STOPPING THE CYCLE OF VIOLENCE AND AVOIDING ALL ENCOMPASSING WAR. Maiese, 2004 (Michelle Maiese June 2004Human Rights Protection/cweb) 4.) WE HAVE A MORAL OBLIGATION TO initiate policies that aim to protect and secure human rights LIKE THE PLAN. this outweighs all other concerns. Khalifa, 2006 8 December 2006/CWEB 136 ADVANTAGE TWO IS CENTRAL ASIAN INSTABILITY: 1.) afghanistan is on the brink of total collapse Mulrine 2k7 (Anna, 7/8, pg. http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/070708/16afghanistan.htm) 2.) Afghan Stability is key to central Asian security and prevents spillover of the Taliban into other bordering countries. All of the Major Asian nations need Afghanistan to have a stable regime. Lal, 06 (Rollie, Rand Corporation, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) 3.) Building a functioning, legitimate, and accountable judiciary is essential to establishing a secure, stable, and prosperous Afghanistan. Their, 2004. Alexander J. Stanford Institute for International Studies – CDDRL Working Paper. 1 4.) central asia is the most likely scenario for global nuclear war Blank 2k (Stephen, June, pg. http://www.milnet.com/pentagon/Russia-2000-assessment-SSI.pdf) 4.) AN india pakistan war risks extinction Washington Times 2K1 (July 8, LN) ADVANTAGE three: TERRORISM 1.) America is failing its performance in the war on terror. New York Daily News, 2007 [James Gordon Meek” Terror experts agree: U.S. still not safe” July 22, LexisNexis] 2.) Afghani instability leads to nuclear terrorism Ellison 07 3.) A STABLE AFGHANISTAN IS KEY TO LYNCHPIN TO THE US WINNING THE WAR ON TERROR Rubin, 2007 Saving Afghanistan Barnett R. Rubin From Foreign Affairs, January/February 2007 Barnett R. Rubin is Director of Studies and a Senior Fellow at New York University's Center on International Cooperation and the author of The Fragmentation of Afghanistan. He served as an adviser to the Special Representative of the Secretary-General at the UN Talks on Afghanistan in Bonn in 2001./CWEB 4.) nuclear terrorism LEADS TO GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR. Chesney in 97 (Robert, Loyola of Los Angeles International & Comparative Law Journal, November, LN) observation three: solvency 1.) THE Department of the Finance Ministry IS A CORRUPT AND MISMANAGED ORGANIZATION THAT IS ILL-EQUIPPED AND UNABLE TO CHANNEL FOREIGN FUNDS FOR IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS. PLAN SOLVES THIS BY CHANNELING ITS FUNDS THROUGH THE RURAL REHABILITATION AND DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT WHICH HAS A PROVEN TRACK RECORD OF SUCCESS. BBC, 2006 BBC Monitoring International Reports March 4, 2006 Saturday ACC-NO: A20060304B-10474-GNWAFGHAN TV DEBATES CORRUPTION, MISMANAGEMENT IN FINANCE MINISTRY/ lexis cweb 2.) the afghan treasury ministries are corrupt and completely mismanaged. the money from the rome conference is being given to this 137 MINISTRY which will result the money not reaching its intended goals and RECIPIENTS. the ministry of rural rehabilitation and development is an autonomous branch could be used solve the judicial crisis without the risk of widespread corruption and embezzlement. Nejat, 2007 (Rah-e Nejat, July 7, 2007 Saturday, "The Rome Conference and its end result"/LEXIS/CWEB) 3.) THE UNITED STATES HAS THE MOST EXPERTISE AND THE MOST AT STAKE IN AFGHANISTAN. OUR RESOURCES AND PRESENCE IN COUNTRY PUT THE US IN A UNIQUE POSITION TO SOLVE THE JUDICIAL CRISIS IN THE COUNTRY. THE US SHOULD NO LONGER WAIT FOR OTHER ACTORS TO TAKE ACTION AND SHOULD INSTEAD PROVIDE FOREIGN ASSISTANCE TO TRAIN POLICE FORCES, INCREASE THE SALARIES OF LEGAL OFFICERS, REBUILD JUDICIAL INFO STRUCTURE, INITIATE LEGAL SENSITIVITY AND TOLERANCE POLICIES, AND PROVIDE FUNDS FOR PRISON REFORM. Perito, 2004 Establishing the Rule of Law in AfghanistanTestimony by Robert M. Perito, coordinator for the Iraq Experience Project with the Professional Training Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace before the Senate Foreign Relations CommitteeMay 12, 2004/ CWEB 4.) success in afghanistan will hinge upon united states leadership and political will. this requires u.s. management and funding of an overhaul of afghan judicial system that includes rebuilding and reforming the courts and penal system. Refugees International, 2004 (01/28/ No Peace without Justice: Lessons from Haiti for Afghanistan) /cweb 138 Army CG Observation one is the status quo: 1.) AFGHANISTAN IS THE PARAMOUNT EXAMPLE OF HOW PROGRESS AND STABILITY ARE IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT COMPREHENSIVE JUDICIAL REFORM. IN THE STATUS QUO THE AFGHAN PEOPLE HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE RULE OF LAW. WARLORDS DOMINATE AND DICTATE THE JUSTICE SYSTEM IN THE RURAL PROVINCES WHERE A MAJORITY OF THE DRUG TRAFFICKING, BRIBERY and corruption takes place. Refugees International, 2004 (01/28/ No Peace without Justice: Lessons from Haiti for Afghanistan) /CWEB 2.) A CONFERENCE CONCERNING THE STATE OF THE AFGHAN JUDICIAL SECTOR WAS HELD IN ROME DURING JULY OF 2007. instead of drafting a comprehensive plan to address the situation, THE OUTCOME OF THE ROME CONFERENCE WAS AN INEFFECTIVE AND SHORT SIGHTED INITIATIVE THAT IS DOOMED TO FAIL. THE NEW “PLAN” LACKS any MECHANISMS OF IMPLEMENTATION AND SIMPLY CONTINUES TO THROW MONEY IN THE SAME CHANNELS THAT HAVE FAILED IN THE PAST. BBC ASIA, 2007 BBC Monitoring South Asia – Political, July 5, 2007, “Afghan paper says Rome conference "occasion of defeat"/LEXIS/CWEB) Thus the plan: Resolved: The United States Federal Government should increase its constructive engagement with the government of Afghanistan by providing foreign assistance for judicial reform to the Ministry of Rural Development and Health of the Afghan government. Funding and enforcement through normal means. ADVANTAGE ONE: human rights 1.) THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS ALMOST ENTIRELY IGNORED PRISON AND LEGAL REFORM IN AFGHANISTAN LEADING TO DEPLORABLE JAIL CONDITIONS AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES. HORRENDOUS JAIL CONDITIONS, RAPE AND TORTURE BY WARLORDS ARE RAMPANT ACROSS THE RURAL AFGHAN COUNTRYSIDE WHERE 70 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION LIVES. JUDICIAL REFORM IS KEY TO ALLEVIATING THE SITUATION and stopping a SLIPPERY SLOPE OF REGIONAL INSTABILITY Rashid, 2003 Afghan warlords killing at will By Ahmed Rashid - Lahore The Age (Australia), February 1, 2003/CWEB 2.) judicial reform in afghanistan can solve the human rights abuses that are still occurring there. by initiating justice seeking reforms with the monetary support required, afghanistan can create an environment that protects human rights now and in the future. HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH, 2005 (July, 2005/cweb) 3.) THE ROOT OF CONFLICT AND ESCALATION IN MOST INSTANCES IS A FAILURE TO PROTECT HUMAN RIGHTS. PRIORITIZING THIS PROTECTION IS CRITICAL TO STOPPING THE CYCLE OF VIOLENCE AND AVOIDING ALL ENCOMPASSING WAR. Maiese, 2004 (Michelle Maiese June 2004Human Rights Protection/cweb) 4.) WE HAVE A MORAL OBLIGATION TO initiate policies that aim to protect and secure human rights LIKE THE PLAN. this outweighs all other concerns. Khalifa, 2006 8 December 2006/CWEB ADVANTAGE TWO IS CENTRAL ASIAN INSTABILITY: 1.) afghanistan is on the brink of total collapse 139 Mulrine 2k7 (Anna, 7/8, pg. http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/070708/16afghanistan.htm) 2.) Afghan Stability is key to central Asian security and prevents spillover of the Taliban into other bordering countries. All of the Major Asian nations need Afghanistan to have a stable regime. Lal, 06 (Rollie, Rand Corporation, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) 3.) Building a functioning, legitimate, and accountable judiciary is essential to establishing a secure, stable, and prosperous Afghanistan. Their, 2004. Alexander J. Stanford Institute for International Studies – CDDRL Working Paper. 1 4.) central asia is the most likely scenario for global nuclear war Blank 2k (Stephen, June, pg. http://www.milnet.com/pentagon/Russia-2000-assessment-SSI.pdf) 4.) AN india pakistan war risks extinction Washington Times 2K1 (July 8, LN) ADVANTAGE three: TERRORISM 1.) America is failing its performance in the war on terror. New York Daily News, 2007 [James Gordon Meek” Terror experts agree: U.S. still not safe” July 22, LexisNexis] 2.) Afghani instability leads to nuclear terrorism Ellison 07 3.) A STABLE AFGHANISTAN IS KEY TO LYNCHPIN TO THE US WINNING THE WAR ON TERROR Rubin, 2007 Saving Afghanistan Barnett R. Rubin From Foreign Affairs, January/February 2007 Barnett R. Rubin is Director of Studies and a Senior Fellow at New York University's Center on International Cooperation and the author of The Fragmentation of Afghanistan. He served as an adviser to the Special Representative of the Secretary-General at the UN Talks on Afghanistan in Bonn in 2001./CWEB 4.) nuclear terrorism LEADS TO GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR. Chesney in 97 (Robert, Loyola of Los Angeles International & Comparative Law Journal, November, LN) observation three: solvency 1.) THE Department of the Finance Ministry IS A CORRUPT AND MISMANAGED ORGANIZATION THAT IS ILL-EQUIPPED AND UNABLE TO CHANNEL FOREIGN FUNDS FOR IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS. PLAN SOLVES THIS BY CHANNELING ITS FUNDS THROUGH THE RURAL REHABILITATION AND DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT WHICH HAS A PROVEN TRACK RECORD OF SUCCESS. BBC, 2006 BBC Monitoring International Reports March 4, 2006 Saturday ACC-NO: A20060304B-10474-GNWAFGHAN TV DEBATES CORRUPTION, MISMANAGEMENT IN FINANCE MINISTRY/ lexis cweb 2.) the afghan treasury ministries are corrupt and completely mismanaged. the money from the rome conference is being given to this MINISTRY which will result the money not reaching its intended goals and RECIPIENTS. the ministry of rural rehabilitation and development is an autonomous branch could be used solve the judicial crisis without the risk of widespread corruption and 140 embezzlement. Nejat, 2007 (Rah-e Nejat, July 7, 2007 Saturday, "The Rome Conference and its end result"/LEXIS/CWEB) 3.) THE UNITED STATES HAS THE MOST EXPERTISE AND THE MOST AT STAKE IN AFGHANISTAN. OUR RESOURCES AND PRESENCE IN COUNTRY PUT THE US IN A UNIQUE POSITION TO SOLVE THE JUDICIAL CRISIS IN THE COUNTRY. THE US SHOULD NO LONGER WAIT FOR OTHER ACTORS TO TAKE ACTION AND SHOULD INSTEAD PROVIDE FOREIGN ASSISTANCE TO TRAIN POLICE FORCES, INCREASE THE SALARIES OF LEGAL OFFICERS, REBUILD JUDICIAL INFO STRUCTURE, INITIATE LEGAL SENSITIVITY AND TOLERANCE POLICIES, AND PROVIDE FUNDS FOR PRISON REFORM. Perito, 2004 Establishing the Rule of Law in AfghanistanTestimony by Robert M. Perito, coordinator for the Iraq Experience Project with the Professional Training Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace before the Senate Foreign Relations CommitteeMay 12, 2004/ CWEB 4.) success in afghanistan will hinge upon united states leadership and political will. this requires u.s. management and funding of an overhaul of afghan judicial system that includes rebuilding and reforming the courts and penal system. Refugees International, 2004 (01/28/ No Peace without Justice: Lessons from Haiti for Afghanistan) /cweb 141 Army JL Observation one is the status quo: 1.) AFGHANISTAN IS THE PARAMOUNT EXAMPLE OF HOW PROGRESS AND STABILITY ARE IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT COMPREHENSIVE JUDICIAL REFORM. IN THE STATUS QUO THE AFGHAN PEOPLE HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE RULE OF LAW. WARLORDS DOMINATE AND DICTATE THE JUSTICE SYSTEM IN THE RURAL PROVINCES WHERE A MAJORITY OF THE DRUG TRAFFICKING, BRIBERY and corruption takes place. Refugees International, 2004 (01/28/ No Peace without Justice: Lessons from Haiti for Afghanistan) /CWEB 2.) A CONFERENCE CONCERNING THE STATE OF THE AFGHAN JUDICIAL SECTOR WAS HELD IN ROME DURING JULY OF 2007. instead of drafting a comprehensive plan to address the situation, THE OUTCOME OF THE ROME CONFERENCE WAS AN INEFFECTIVE AND SHORT SIGHTED INITIATIVE THAT IS DOOMED TO FAIL. THE NEW “PLAN” LACKS any MECHANISMS OF IMPLEMENTATION AND SIMPLY CONTINUES TO THROW MONEY IN THE SAME CHANNELS THAT HAVE FAILED IN THE PAST. BBC ASIA, 2007 BBC Monitoring South Asia – Political, July 5, 2007, “Afghan paper says Rome conference "occasion of defeat"/LEXIS/CWEB) Thus the plan: Resolved: The United States Federal Government should increase its constructive engagement with the government of Afghanistan by providing foreign assistance for judicial reform to the Ministry of Rural Development and Health of the Afghan government. Funding and enforcement through normal means. ADVANTAGE ONE: human rights 1.) THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS ALMOST ENTIRELY IGNORED PRISON AND LEGAL REFORM IN AFGHANISTAN LEADING TO DEPLORABLE JAIL CONDITIONS AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES. HORRENDOUS JAIL CONDITIONS, RAPE AND TORTURE BY WARLORDS ARE RAMPANT ACROSS THE RURAL AFGHAN COUNTRYSIDE WHERE 70 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION LIVES. JUDICIAL REFORM IS KEY TO ALLEVIATING THE SITUATION and stopping a SLIPPERY SLOPE OF REGIONAL INSTABILITY Rashid, 2003 Afghan warlords killing at will By Ahmed Rashid - Lahore The Age (Australia), February 1, 2003/CWEB 2.) judicial reform in afghanistan can solve the human rights abuses that are still occurring there. by initiating justice seeking reforms with the monetary support required, afghanistan can create an environment that protects human rights now and in the future. HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH, 2005 (July, 2005/cweb) 3.) THE ROOT OF CONFLICT AND ESCALATION IN MOST INSTANCES IS A FAILURE TO PROTECT HUMAN RIGHTS. PRIORITIZING THIS PROTECTION IS CRITICAL TO STOPPING THE CYCLE OF VIOLENCE AND AVOIDING ALL ENCOMPASSING WAR. Maiese, 2004 (Michelle Maiese June 2004Human Rights Protection/cweb) 4.) WE HAVE A MORAL OBLIGATION TO initiate policies that aim to protect and secure human rights LIKE THE PLAN. this outweighs all other concerns. Khalifa, 2006 8 December 2006/CWEB ADVANTAGE TWO IS CENTRAL ASIAN INSTABILITY: 1.) afghanistan is on the brink of total collapse 142 Mulrine 2k7 (Anna, 7/8, pg. http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/070708/16afghanistan.htm) 2.) Afghan Stability is key to central Asian security and prevents spillover of the Taliban into other bordering countries. All of the Major Asian nations need Afghanistan to have a stable regime. Lal, 06 (Rollie, Rand Corporation, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) 3.) Building a functioning, legitimate, and accountable judiciary is essential to establishing a secure, stable, and prosperous Afghanistan. Their, 2004. Alexander J. Stanford Institute for International Studies – CDDRL Working Paper. 1 4.) central asia is the most likely scenario for global nuclear war Blank 2k (Stephen, June, pg. http://www.milnet.com/pentagon/Russia-2000-assessment-SSI.pdf) 4.) AN india pakistan war risks extinction Washington Times 2K1 (July 8, LN) ADVANTAGE three: TERRORISM 1.) America is failing its performance in the war on terror. New York Daily News, 2007 [James Gordon Meek” Terror experts agree: U.S. still not safe” July 22, LexisNexis] 2.) Afghani instability leads to nuclear terrorism Ellison 07 3.) A STABLE AFGHANISTAN IS KEY TO LYNCHPIN TO THE US WINNING THE WAR ON TERROR Rubin, 2007 Saving Afghanistan Barnett R. Rubin From Foreign Affairs, January/February 2007 Barnett R. Rubin is Director of Studies and a Senior Fellow at New York University's Center on International Cooperation and the author of The Fragmentation of Afghanistan. He served as an adviser to the Special Representative of the Secretary-General at the UN Talks on Afghanistan in Bonn in 2001./CWEB 4.) nuclear terrorism LEADS TO GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR. Chesney in 97 (Robert, Loyola of Los Angeles International & Comparative Law Journal, November, LN) observation three: solvency 1.) THE Department of the Finance Ministry IS A CORRUPT AND MISMANAGED ORGANIZATION THAT IS ILL-EQUIPPED AND UNABLE TO CHANNEL FOREIGN FUNDS FOR IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS. PLAN SOLVES THIS BY CHANNELING ITS FUNDS THROUGH THE RURAL REHABILITATION AND DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT WHICH HAS A PROVEN TRACK RECORD OF SUCCESS. BBC, 2006 BBC Monitoring International Reports March 4, 2006 Saturday ACC-NO: A20060304B-10474-GNWAFGHAN TV DEBATES CORRUPTION, MISMANAGEMENT IN FINANCE MINISTRY/ lexis cweb 2.) the afghan treasury ministries are corrupt and completely mismanaged. the money from the rome conference is being given to this MINISTRY which will result the money not reaching its intended goals and RECIPIENTS. the ministry of rural rehabilitation and development is an autonomous branch could be used solve the judicial crisis without the risk of widespread corruption and 143 embezzlement. Nejat, 2007 (Rah-e Nejat, July 7, 2007 Saturday, "The Rome Conference and its end result"/LEXIS/CWEB) 3.) THE UNITED STATES HAS THE MOST EXPERTISE AND THE MOST AT STAKE IN AFGHANISTAN. OUR RESOURCES AND PRESENCE IN COUNTRY PUT THE US IN A UNIQUE POSITION TO SOLVE THE JUDICIAL CRISIS IN THE COUNTRY. THE US SHOULD NO LONGER WAIT FOR OTHER ACTORS TO TAKE ACTION AND SHOULD INSTEAD PROVIDE FOREIGN ASSISTANCE TO TRAIN POLICE FORCES, INCREASE THE SALARIES OF LEGAL OFFICERS, REBUILD JUDICIAL INFO STRUCTURE, INITIATE LEGAL SENSITIVITY AND TOLERANCE POLICIES, AND PROVIDE FUNDS FOR PRISON REFORM. Perito, 2004 Establishing the Rule of Law in AfghanistanTestimony by Robert M. Perito, coordinator for the Iraq Experience Project with the Professional Training Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace before the Senate Foreign Relations CommitteeMay 12, 2004/ CWEB 4.) success in afghanistan will hinge upon united states leadership and political will. this requires u.s. management and funding of an overhaul of afghan judicial system that includes rebuilding and reforming the courts and penal system. Refugees International, 2004 (01/28/ No Peace without Justice: Lessons from Haiti for Afghanistan) /cweb 144 Army CR Observation one is the status quo: 1.) AFGHANISTAN IS THE PARAMOUNT EXAMPLE OF HOW PROGRESS AND STABILITY ARE IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT COMPREHENSIVE JUDICIAL REFORM. IN THE STATUS QUO THE AFGHAN PEOPLE HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE RULE OF LAW. WARLORDS DOMINATE AND DICTATE THE JUSTICE SYSTEM IN THE RURAL PROVINCES WHERE A MAJORITY OF THE DRUG TRAFFICKING, BRIBERY and corruption takes place. Refugees International, 2004 (01/28/ No Peace without Justice: Lessons from Haiti for Afghanistan) /CWEB 2.) A CONFERENCE CONCERNING THE STATE OF THE AFGHAN JUDICIAL SECTOR WAS HELD IN ROME DURING JULY OF 2007. instead of drafting a comprehensive plan to address the situation, THE OUTCOME OF THE ROME CONFERENCE WAS AN INEFFECTIVE AND SHORT SIGHTED INITIATIVE THAT IS DOOMED TO FAIL. THE NEW “PLAN” LACKS any MECHANISMS OF IMPLEMENTATION AND SIMPLY CONTINUES TO THROW MONEY IN THE SAME CHANNELS THAT HAVE FAILED IN THE PAST. BBC ASIA, 2007 BBC Monitoring South Asia – Political, July 5, 2007, “Afghan paper says Rome conference "occasion of defeat"/LEXIS/CWEB) Thus the plan: Resolved: The United States Federal Government should increase its constructive engagement with the government of Afghanistan by providing foreign assistance for judicial reform to the Ministry of Rural Development and Health of the Afghan government. Funding and enforcement through normal means. ADVANTAGE ONE: human rights 1.) THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS ALMOST ENTIRELY IGNORED PRISON AND LEGAL REFORM IN AFGHANISTAN LEADING TO DEPLORABLE JAIL CONDITIONS AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES. HORRENDOUS JAIL CONDITIONS, RAPE AND TORTURE BY WARLORDS ARE RAMPANT ACROSS THE RURAL AFGHAN COUNTRYSIDE WHERE 70 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION LIVES. JUDICIAL REFORM IS KEY TO ALLEVIATING THE SITUATION and stopping a SLIPPERY SLOPE OF REGIONAL INSTABILITY Rashid, 2003 Afghan warlords killing at will By Ahmed Rashid - Lahore The Age (Australia), February 1, 2003/CWEB 2.) judicial reform in afghanistan can solve the human rights abuses that are still occurring there. by initiating justice seeking reforms with the monetary support required, afghanistan can create an environment that protects human rights now and in the future. HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH, 2005 (July, 2005/cweb) 3.) THE ROOT OF CONFLICT AND ESCALATION IN MOST INSTANCES IS A FAILURE TO PROTECT HUMAN RIGHTS. PRIORITIZING THIS PROTECTION IS CRITICAL TO STOPPING THE CYCLE OF VIOLENCE AND AVOIDING ALL ENCOMPASSING WAR. Maiese, 2004 (Michelle Maiese June 2004Human Rights Protection/cweb) 4.) WE HAVE A MORAL OBLIGATION TO initiate policies that aim to protect and secure human rights LIKE THE PLAN. this outweighs all other concerns. Khalifa, 2006 8 December 2006/CWEB 145 ADVANTAGE TWO IS CENTRAL ASIAN INSTABILITY: 1.) afghanistan is on the brink of total collapse Mulrine 2k7 (Anna, 7/8, pg. http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/070708/16afghanistan.htm) 2.) Afghan Stability is key to central Asian security and prevents spillover of the Taliban into other bordering countries. All of the Major Asian nations need Afghanistan to have a stable regime. Lal, 06 (Rollie, Rand Corporation, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) 3.) Building a functioning, legitimate, and accountable judiciary is essential to establishing a secure, stable, and prosperous Afghanistan. Their, 2004. Alexander J. Stanford Institute for International Studies – CDDRL Working Paper. 1 4.) central asia is the most likely scenario for global nuclear war Blank 2k (Stephen, June, pg. http://www.milnet.com/pentagon/Russia-2000-assessment-SSI.pdf) 4.) AN india pakistan war risks extinction Washington Times 2K1 (July 8, LN) ADVANTAGE three: TERRORISM 1.) America is failing its performance in the war on terror. New York Daily News, 2007 [James Gordon Meek” Terror experts agree: U.S. still not safe” July 22, LexisNexis] 2.) Afghani instability leads to nuclear terrorism Ellison 07 3.) A STABLE AFGHANISTAN IS KEY TO LYNCHPIN TO THE US WINNING THE WAR ON TERROR Rubin, 2007 Saving Afghanistan Barnett R. Rubin From Foreign Affairs, January/February 2007 Barnett R. Rubin is Director of Studies and a Senior Fellow at New York University's Center on International Cooperation and the author of The Fragmentation of Afghanistan. He served as an adviser to the Special Representative of the Secretary-General at the UN Talks on Afghanistan in Bonn in 2001./CWEB 4.) nuclear terrorism LEADS TO GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR. Chesney in 97 (Robert, Loyola of Los Angeles International & Comparative Law Journal, November, LN) observation three: solvency 1.) THE Department of the Finance Ministry IS A CORRUPT AND MISMANAGED ORGANIZATION THAT IS ILL-EQUIPPED AND UNABLE TO CHANNEL FOREIGN FUNDS FOR IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS. PLAN SOLVES THIS BY CHANNELING ITS FUNDS THROUGH THE RURAL REHABILITATION AND DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT WHICH HAS A PROVEN TRACK RECORD OF SUCCESS. BBC, 2006 BBC Monitoring International Reports March 4, 2006 Saturday ACC-NO: A20060304B-10474-GNWAFGHAN TV DEBATES CORRUPTION, MISMANAGEMENT IN FINANCE MINISTRY/ lexis cweb 2.) the afghan treasury ministries are corrupt and completely mismanaged. the money from the rome conference is being given to this 146 MINISTRY which will result the money not reaching its intended goals and RECIPIENTS. the ministry of rural rehabilitation and development is an autonomous branch could be used solve the judicial crisis without the risk of widespread corruption and embezzlement. Nejat, 2007 (Rah-e Nejat, July 7, 2007 Saturday, "The Rome Conference and its end result"/LEXIS/CWEB) 3.) THE UNITED STATES HAS THE MOST EXPERTISE AND THE MOST AT STAKE IN AFGHANISTAN. OUR RESOURCES AND PRESENCE IN COUNTRY PUT THE US IN A UNIQUE POSITION TO SOLVE THE JUDICIAL CRISIS IN THE COUNTRY. THE US SHOULD NO LONGER WAIT FOR OTHER ACTORS TO TAKE ACTION AND SHOULD INSTEAD PROVIDE FOREIGN ASSISTANCE TO TRAIN POLICE FORCES, INCREASE THE SALARIES OF LEGAL OFFICERS, REBUILD JUDICIAL INFO STRUCTURE, INITIATE LEGAL SENSITIVITY AND TOLERANCE POLICIES, AND PROVIDE FUNDS FOR PRISON REFORM. Perito, 2004 Establishing the Rule of Law in AfghanistanTestimony by Robert M. Perito, coordinator for the Iraq Experience Project with the Professional Training Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace before the Senate Foreign Relations CommitteeMay 12, 2004/ CWEB 4.) success in afghanistan will hinge upon united states leadership and political will. this requires u.s. management and funding of an overhaul of afghan judicial system that includes rebuilding and reforming the courts and penal system. Refugees International, 2004 (01/28/ No Peace without Justice: Lessons from Haiti for Afghanistan) /cweb 2AC: Soft power addon Turned bizcon with economic decline prevents war 147 West Virginia SS Plan text: The United States Federal Government should increase its Constructive engagement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by offering a security guarantee in the form of a treaty pleding that the Uinted States will halt all efforts to impede Iran’s development of nuclear technology. Enforcement and Implementation guaranteed thorugh normal means. We reserve right to clarify Don’t bother running procedural because our plan is a security gurantee Freeman ’03 (“Knowledge Base Essay: Security Gurantees”) Barbara Walter…general instruments Inherency Current international efforts to halt Iranian nuclear prolif are a miserable failure. Regardless of what you hear in “The No Spin Zone” coercive international pressure has done nothing to stop Iran’s development of nuclear weapons McFAul, Milani, and Diamond , 07 (online) Formulation of a new…since the revolution In fact, US saber rattling has rendered Iranian procurement of nuclear weapons inevitable Eland, ’07 (online) The Bush administration…already generated Buy why is it that we seek to stop Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. Are nuclear aeapons in the nds of Iran more threatening than nuclear weapons in the hands of the US, THE ONLY COUNTRY THAT HAS ACTUALLY USED THE WAPONS IN THE PAST? Why does Bill O’Reilley feel justified when he blatantly describes the Iranian regime as an existential threat to the entire world? A careful examination of the history of US-Iranian relations answers these questions: Our fears that Iranian nuclear weapons pose a global threat are neither objective nor neutral. Instead, they indebted to an imperialist line of thinking under which the Islamic Republoic is viewed as inherently evil, irrational, and diametriacally opposed to the Liberal Democratic values that define America. Hurd, ’04 (“The International Politics of Secularism: US Foreign Policy and the Islamic Republic of Iran” Alternative: Global, Local, Political) The politics of secularism..remain so contentious Advantage 2: Nuclear Orientalism The construction of Iran as violent and irrational is ever present in the debate aobut Iranian nuclear weapons. The idea that Iran, unlike the US, cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons is merely a continuation of the Orientalist assumptions that have underscored US foreign policy since the Iranian Revolution. This form of Orientalism is an ideological apparatus that sustains a heirarchichal conception of the US-Iranian relations under whichi domination and imperlaism are essential to matintain international order. Gusterson 99 (“Nuclear Weapons and the Other in Western Imagination” JSTOR) Following Anthony…of various kinds” (1990) At bottom, this externalization of violence is the root casue of conflict between the US and Iran. Until we are able free ourseovels from the prison of Orientalism, violent conflict between the US and Iran is inevitable. Its try or die. Zizek ’05 (online) But are nuclear…feel threatened Solvency Our plan exposes the dominant narratives that permeate the discussion of Iranian nuclear weapons as what ehy are: normative political assertions designed to legitmaize imperliasm. In a wolrd absent the aff, these narrative foreclose the possibility of true progressive change Said, 94 (The Politics of Dispossession, p. 353-356) It would be irresposbile to…to become “terrorism.” 2ACKritik of predictions (Tetlock) K of economic blackmail (Zizek) Nuclear apocalyptic representations bad (Coviello) 148 JV Negative 149 Clarion MT & DE For all Clarion teams Procedurals: T – constructive engagement cannot require quid pro quo T—CE must be conditioned Paraphrased arguments good for slow debate! Disads: Appeasement Investor confidence Latin A. Aid trade off War on terror, US weakness increases terrorism Confidence picking up, export opportunities are growing Daily Commercial NEws 10-30 http://dcnonl.com/article/stats/24897 "Prospects for the U.S. manufacturing....investing in the U.S. first." Links Middle East instability makes investment in the US a lock-we're the safer play. The plan reverses this trend. Hammond et al, Chief Investment Strategist for TIAA-CREF Asset Management, 2k6 BRett, "Risk versus Uncertainty in the Middle East," 7-24, www.tiaacref.org/about/press/publications/market_monitor/2006_07_24.pdf "In times of escalated international tensions...more volatile than treasuries." Loss of Foreign investment jacks the economy Isadore, 9-18-07, Chris, Senior writer 4 CNN money, cnn.money.com "Another risk to the economy would be a drop....if it is cutting rates." MPX--Mead They also read a petrodollar link story 150 GMU LP T QPQ Extra Topicality—pressuring Afghanistan to not negotiate with the Taliban CP—USFG should declare that the Taliban in Baluchistan constitutes a threat to international peace and security as defined in the UN Charter and that US military assistance to Pakistan should cease until Islamabad takes decisive action to end its support of Taliban Disrupting command and control centers in Pakistan key to defeating Taliban (Rubin 07) Case turn— Bribery and embezzlement precludes any type of foreign assistance to Afghanistan from succeeding (BBC Monitoring International Reports, July 31, 2007) 151 John Carroll BC T - const. engagement is QPQ CP - USFG will disengage from the middle east. Hege is Bad disad Military Empire K 152 Mary Washington HS & GT Russian Oil Russian Oil—Putin’s stabilization of Russia dependent on high oil prices—plan decreases oil prices by increasing stability in the ME—stabilized Russia key to preventing nuclear war and extinction Aspec T-Quid pro Quo Politics—Child Health Care Bush will sustain the veto against SCHIP expansion now but its taking all his strength Ledger Dispatch, 10-22-07, “Down but not out, Bush bests Democrats in Congress,” http://www.ledgerdispatch.com/news/newsview.asp?c=227840 “By any measure, President George W. Bush…hoped for a knockout.” Democrats will try SCHIP again without changes-they’re keeping the cigarette tax-the vote will be close Charles Babington, 10-24-07, Associated Press, “Democrats unyielding on children’s health plan cost; administration makes new offer,” l/n “House Democrats, convinced that President Bush…supported Bush’s veto.” Constractors are at the heart of demining in Afghanistan—blackwater ensures there would be a debate about the plan David Capie, senior lecturer in international relations at Victoria University of Wellington, September 25, 2007 (Taming Hired Guns, press.co.nz) http://www.stuff.co.nz/421365a12935.html “While Blackwater has become a….involved in this latest shooting.” AND-this ensures an expansive SCHIP bill-SCHIP is at the top of the docket now; delaying to build time for olive-branches is the only scenario for a democratic SCHIP bill Charles Babington, 10-24-07, Associated Press, “Democrats unyielding on children’s health plan cost; administration makes new offer,” l/n “House Democratic leaders decided to….Forty-four Republicans joined 229 Democrats in voting to override.” Expanded SCHIP would destroy the economy Sean Lengell, 8-1-07, The Washington Ties, “GOP slams Democrats’ ‘leap’ to social health care,” l/n “Republicans said the Democrats measures would….passed into law, would bankrupt our economy.” MPX-Bearden Coercion K 153 Trinity OV Russia Consultation T - constructive engagement = quid pro quo Latin America Aid Trade-Off Against Iran: The US is supporting Sunni allies to contain Iran CSM 07 “As Mideast realigns us learns sunni” “Americans are hearing…in the region” Regional allies are terrified of Iranian influence –plan plays into those fear and undermines alliances Sick 06 “A selective partnership” “These events…to live with the consequences” This causes anti-US Sunni state involvement in Iraq CSM 07 “As Mideast realigns us learns sunni” “It’s more Arab-Persian…Sunni, others note.” Sunni state involvement escalates civil war and draws in regional powers. Hass 2007 “Iraq more than America’s problem” “Every government in the …the rest of the world” Steinbach 02 impact 154 Army HX, CG, JL, CR Against the Clarion zombies affirmative: Realism good Russia Counterbalancing DA Peru FTA good politics T isn’t QPQ Topicality—Security Guarantee Distinction between security assurance and security guarantee—security assurance (promise not to attack) is not a security guarantee (promise to fight against someone who attacks the country Oil Pipeline Plan decreases oil prices High oil prices key to funding oil pipeline from Iran through Kashmir to China and India Dialogue that takes place between India and Pakistan about the pipeline is key to opening communication and preventing conflict Kashmir goes nuclear Israel Olmert is in control of Israeli government now Plan is a concession which weakens Olmert and causes the gov’t to have early elections Early elections means Netanyahu gets elected and hardliners get control They’ll attack Iran This goes nuclear Russia Counterbalancing DA Russia is trying to moderate US Dominance in the Mid-East—New US Action is viewed as zero-sum by Putin Power and Interest News Report, ’06 (online) Moscow is in…national interests. US unilateralism into Russian affairs leads to Russian aggressive counterbalancing Simes, ’99 (After the Collapse, p. 224) Conversely, on the American…difficult to develop. Russian Aggression leads to nuclear war Nyquist, ’01 (online) Unfortunatley, the main…instead of shrinking. Consult Russia CP Russia wants to be consulted on issues regarding the Mid-East Blank, ’03 (online) While much of the…Western Civilization 155 West Virginia SS Orientalism Aff framing of need for human rights relegates Middle East to inferior. Said Rhetoric creates culture of imperialism leading to the state of exception. Said, 93 Orientalist policy makes liberalism impossible leading to repressive governments turning case. Said 03 Alternative reject static notion of identities in affirmative. Michaels 03 Pakistan Afghan and Pakistan are fragile in status quo. BBC 2007 “..two sides of border” Rapid policy changes lead to disengagement by Pakistan. BBC 2007 Pakistan imperative to Afghanistan change in stability. BBC 2007 “…only with regional cooperation” Border is increasingly unstable. Ali 2007. “..manage to keep remerging” Nuclear weapons are vulnerable to terrorists. AP, 2007. “result in nuclear terrorist” The mpx – nuclear weapons will cause million of deaths. Institute for the death of nuclear weapons, ? “…causing massive casualities …contamination of water and food supplies” Affs evaluation of life is through neo liberal policies. Brown, 2003 Neo liberalism makes it impossible to have ethical relationship with other. Neo liberalism commodifies human rights and life in the name of economic production. Lockhart and shallot 04 156 Novice Affirmative 157 Augustana MP PLAN: The United States Federal Government should increase its constructive engagement with the govt. of Lebanon by providing training to the Lebanese army under the IEMT program. INHERENCY: Lebanese security agencies are under-equipped and ill-trained Blanford Sep. 04, 2007 NICHOLAS BLANFORD, staff, Time. Beirut Routs Bin Laden Allies http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1658604,00.html A grinding political crisis [to] attractive target. Now key time: Lebanon needs to capitalize on the moment of peace—They need international help to rebuild Nahr al-Bared AP September 4, 2007 Lebanon PM Siniora says victory over Fatah Islam helps bring peace to Lebanon http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/09/04/europe/EU-GEN-Italy-Lebanon.php Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora [to] the group is linked with al-Qaida. Thus the plan: The United States Federal Government should increase its constructive engagement with the government of Lebanon by providing training to the Lebanese army. ADVANTAGE ONE: Rights Lebanese government has authority over the camps—they’ve reasserted their control AFP September 4, 2007 Lebanese troops withdraw after killing 222 Islamists http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jhagvdLHnlzLlouVHIp_uF2w2ODg The defence minister stressed [to] armed Palestinian factions. Lebanon has highest percentage of refugees living in abject poverty of all UNRWA camps—Refugees have no social or civil rights in Lebanon UNRWA Updated ‘06 “United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. LEBANON REFUGEE CAMP PROFILES.” Figures as of 31 December 2006 http://www.un.org/unrwa/refugees/lebanon.html Today, all 12 official [to] unemployment amongst the refugee population. Rights are trump cards over any governmental interest – this is the only way to ensure equality Fagan ‘05 Andrew: Human Rights Center at the University of Essex, Human Rights, The Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy, http://www.iep.utm.edu/h/hum-rts.htm National and international institutions bear the [to] alternative social and political considerations. We must struggle for dignity- it is the only way to prevent the annihilation of the planet Holloway 00 ("Zapatismo and the Social Sciences John Holloway This is the text of a talk presented to the congress of SCOLAS (Southwest Council of Latin American Studies) in Puebla in March 2000." http://64.233.179.104/search?q=cache:PfhMWeY3P6QJ:www.endpage.org/Archives/Subversive_Texts/Holloway/The_Zapatistas_an d_the_Soc.htm+%22using+people+as+a+means+to+an+end%22&hl=en&client=firefox-a) To think in the non-existing school [to] dignity itself is the revolution. ADVANTAGE TWO: Terrorism Terrorist groups are using suffering of Palestinian refugees to further their agenda—Now is the key time for US engagement to bring stability to Lebanon by building strong security forces Middle East Progress ‘07 “US Leadership Must Help Fill Vacuums in Region,” 05-23-07 http://www.middleeastprogress.org/2007/05/us-leadership-must-helpfill-vacuums-in-region/ Events on the ground in Lebanon [to] in the past six years in the Middle East. Refugee camps continue to be hotspots—They need more money to cover the gaps Long July ‘07 William Long; Special to The Daily Star. July 16, 2007. “At Nahr al-Bared and Bedawwi, it's the next fire that has responders 158 worried.” http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=25&article_id=83845 Just as the spectre [to] late when something happens." Terrorist ideology views this as an apocalyptic struggle: They will never compromise—they are intensifying their struggle to achieve total victory Paz ‘07 Reuven Paz is founder and director of the Project for the Research of Islamist Movements (PRISM) at the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center. Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 11, No. 1 (March 2007) This is no ordinary political [to] their Arab Sunni Muslim political opponents. Terrorism leads to a snowball of violence and instability. KAPLAN, 2002 [Robert D., Senior Fellow, New America Foundation. March. The Atlantic Monthly 289.03. Lexis-Nexis.] Finally, in Latin America, [to] pivotal country elsewhere. Terrorism leads to global war and extinction Kirkus Reviews 99 (June 1, LN) Terrorism is nothing new. [to] simply unacceptable doggerel. Foreign assistance is one of the most effective resources for dealing with terrorism and threats to security William D. Hartung, Senior Research Fellow, World Policy Institute. May 12, 2007 Washington Post “Misspending on War.” L/N "The Cost of War, Unnoticed" [to] other threats to security. Host countries are responsible for policing the camps UNRWA Updated ‘07 http://www.un.org/unrwa/refugees/wheredo.html “Where Do The Refugees Live?” A camp, according to UNRWA's [to] in the area in which the camp is located. Militants are using Lebanon’s weak security as a springboard for attacks Hamzah August ‘07 Weedah Hamzah, Deutsch Presse Agentuer, staff. “Lebanon's security, future at stake after attack on UN.” Jun 25, 2007 http://news.monstersandcritics.com/middleeast/features/article_1322078.php The 'Nahr al-Bared clashes [to] dark and uncertain future. Escaped members of Fatah al-Islam will be launching attacks in Lebanon soon Daily Star August ‘07 BBC Monitoring Middle East – Political. August 13, 2007. “Syrian group says Fatah al-Islam to launch attacks in Lebanon "soon" – paper” L/N The leader of a Syrian Islamist group [to] Wait for a black day." US should bolster Lebanon’s army—this will strengthen the central government Phillips ‘06 James, Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs, Center for Foreign Policy Studies. September 11, 2006. “Strong International Support Is Required to Build Peace in Lebanon.” Backgrounder #1969 http://www.heritage.org/Research/MiddleEast/bg1969.cfm The United States should [to] drawn up for the Lebanese police. Strong government key to reversing trend toward extremism and intolerance in the region and key to peace in the Middle East Pascual ‘06 Carlos; Vice President, The Brookings Institution. September 13, 2006. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “Restoring Confidence in Lebanon’s Future.” It is also important [to] we have a stake in this endeavor. 159 Boston College MR Plan Text The USFG should offer to the government of Iran them a repeal of the Iran Freedom Support Act and promise not to attack or overthrow the regime on the condition that Iran agrees to restore diplomatic relations, including allowing the United States to open an embassy in Tehran and agreeing to negotiate over all outstanding issues between the two countries. Case Structure/Advantages 1. Accidental War 2. Syria Biological Attack 3. Economy 160 Boston College SW Plan: The U.S. Federal Government should offer to the government of Iran a repeal of the Iran Freedom Support Act and promise not to attack or overthrow the regime on the condition that Iran agrees to restore diplomatic relations, including allowing the US to open an embassy in Tehran and agreeing to negotiate over all outstanding issues between the two countries. Advantages: 1. Accidental War—Jerusalem Post 2. Afghanistan Instability 3. Iranian Appeasement 4. Israel-US relations 161 Clarion SS & RZ Ob 1 inherency _ Reconstruction and Stabilization funds for Afghanistan are insufficient and declining Captain Colucci, U.S. Army headquarters detachment commander for the Battle Command Training Program at Fort Leavenworth, 2k7 [Craig C., Military Review, May/June, proquest] U.S. R&S spending in Afghanistan falls short _ Aid outside the Afghanistan Compact process fails because it doesn't allow the Afghanis to use the monies where, and how, they are needed Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k6 [Barnett R., Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy, March, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Afghanistan_CSR.pdf] The Afghanistan Compact includes an annex _ the US is a prime violator of the Afghan Compact Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k6 [Barnett R., Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy, March, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Afghanistan_CSR.pdf] Three of the largest donors, however _ The US is pursuing eradication – no real energy is going to rural development Felbab-Brown, fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2k5 [Vanda, Washington Quarterly, Autumn, http://www.twq.com/05autumn/docs/05autumn_felbab.pdf] The U.S. counternarcotics policy in Afghanistan has evolved from _ The US is emplyoing a kill strategy versus the Taliban. This is backfiring as it is generating massive amounts of support for the insurgents Johnson, professor of of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, and Mason, senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, 2k7 [Thomas H. & M. Chris, Orbis, Winter, ScienceDirect] The Taliban, unlike Kabul, intuitively understood Ob 2 - implosion _ Afghanistan is teetering – implosion is likely without action Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k6 [Barnett R., Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy, March, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Afghanistan_CSR.pdf] During his visit to Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan from March 1 to March 5, 2006, President George W. Bush praised Afghan successes _ Afghanistan is on the verge of capsizing Johnson, professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, and Mason, senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, 2k7 [Thomas H. & M. Chris, Orbis, Winter, ScienceDirect] After nearly thirty years of continuous war in Afghanistan _ Lack of reconstruction assistance is key Riedel, Brookings Senior Fellow for Political Transitions in the Middle East and South Asia, 2k7 [Bruce, Survival, Autumn, informaworld] Secondly, Afghanistan was put on the back burner and _ Lack of reconstruction assistance is key to the downfall of Afghanistan Johnson, professor of of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, and Mason, senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, 2k7 [Thomas H. & M. Chris, Orbis, Winter, ScienceDirect] Afghanistan today is in danger of capsizing in a perfect 162 _ Current drug strategies push locals to the Taliban Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k7 [Barnett, "Salvaging Afghanistan," 3-1, http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2007/March/Rubin%2003-01-07.pdf] Finally, counter-narcotics policy in Afghanistan 2 impacts – 1, regional stability; 2 terrorism _ Afghanistan is falling apart as violence increases The New Yorker 7-9-07 [John Lee Anderson, "The Taliban's Opium War," lexis] Suicide bombings and I.E.D. attacks, major features _ This is snowballing into ethnic conflict in Afghanistan The Economist 7-28-07 ["Fighting for land and water; Tribal conflict in Afghanistan," lexis] SURROUNDED by mountains and carpeted with _ Karzai is on the verge of compromising with the Taliban which will split the country further The New Yorker 7-9-07 [John Lee Anderson, "The Taliban's Opium War," lexis] Karzai, in his efforts to mollify his restive _ Rural Afghanistan is key to overall Afghanistan stability Jones 2k7 (Seth G., January 31, pg. http://www.rand.org/commentary/013107IHT.html ) The rising violence and the near certainty of a Taliban spring _ Afghan Stability is key to central Asian security and prevents spillover of the Taliban into other bordering countries. All of the Major Asian nations need Afghanistan to have a stable regime. Lal, 06 (Rollie, Rand Corporation, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin /GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) The Asian states neighboring Central Asia have historic links _ Central Asia conflict risks nuclear war Blank 2k (Stephen, June, pg. http://www.milnet.com/pentagon/Russia-2000-assessment-SSI.pdf ) In 1993 Moscow even threatened World War III to deter Turkish _ Afghanistan success key to our Middle East success – outweighs Iraq Lieven, Senior Research Fellow with the New America Foundation, 2k7 [Anatol, Middle East Policy, Spring, http://www.mepc.org/forums_chcs/47.html] De facto defeat in Afghanistan would be a catastrophic _ MIDDLE EAST WAR WILL GO NUCLEAR David, Professor of Policy Science at Johns Hopkins, Israel Affairs, Spring/Summer 1996, p. 95 Internal conflict in the Middle East heightens _ Taliban and Al Qaeda control of Afghanistan is increasing Johnson, professor of of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, and Mason, senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, 2k7 [Thomas H. & M. Chris, Orbis, Winter, ScienceDirect] Troubling indicators such as the relatively _ Healthy drug industry will lead to Afghanistan as a terrorist launching pad, again Bloomberg.com 8-8-07 [Janine Zacharia, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aQHmvqw4uHRY&refer=canada ] A State Department report earlier this year _ Al-Qaeda is on the verge of returning to Afghanistan. Failure would pose a significant threat to the US Captain Colucci, U.S. Army headquarters detachment commander for the Battle Command Training Program at Fort Leavenworth, 2k7 [Craig C., Military Review, May/June, proquest] Now, once again, the Taliban is operating 163 _ Stable Afghanistan is critical to winning the War on Terror – failure would be the ultimate signal to Al Qaeda that they have won triggering terrorism and undermining the economy Captain Colucci, U.S. Army headquarters detachment commander for the Battle Command Training Program at Fort Leavenworth, 2k7 [Craig C., Military Review, May/June, proquest] If, as some say, winning is no longer a possibility TERRORIST ATTACKS RESULT IN EXTINCTION Yonah Alexander; Senior Fellow and Director of the International Center for Terrorism Studies, 2/28/2002 (The University of Wisconsin Press; Terrorism in the 21st Century; http://www.wisc.edu/wisconsinpress/terrorism.html) The September 11, 2001 attacks in the Ob 3 – Drugs _ Afghanistan is breaking records with drug cultivation The Times (London) 8-10-07 [Richard Beeston, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2231556.ece] The United Nations is expected to reveal this month _ Involvement with the drug trade is off the charts - Afghanistan produces ninety percent of the global heroin Hughes, Former Chief of Staff - Afghanistan Reconstruction Group, U.S. Department of State, 2k6 [Louis, AFGHANISTAN – SUCCESS OR FAILURE?, 11-15, www.aicgs.org/file_manager/streamfile.aspx?path=&name=hughes1106.pdf] I already mentioned the huge drug problem impact is aids – drug routes key to aids, asia spread key, extinction (sorry no cites here – will add) Therefore the plan: The USFG should increase its constructive engagement with the government of Afghanistan by increasing funding for reconstruction and stabilization activities. The USFG will guarantee 25 billion dollars be provided over the 2007-2010 time period. Reconstruction funds should be directed thru the ANDS. Counterdrug efforts should target rural development activities. You gots questions, ask 'em. Ob 4 Solvency _ A commitment to reconstruction is critical for a stable Afghanistan Captain Colucci, U.S. Army headquarters detachment commander for the Battle Command Training Program at Fort Leavenworth, 2k7 [Craig C., Military Review, May/June, proquest] In October 2006, NATO's General Jones said efforts _ Reconstruction is the best bet for solving Afghanistan – signs of development are critical to regaining the trust of the people Johnson, professor of of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, and Mason, senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, 2k7 [Thomas H. & M. Chris, Orbis, Winter, ScienceDirect] The chief purpose of the resurged _ Without reconstruction all other endeavors are pointless Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k6 [Barnett R., Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy, March, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Afghanistan_CSR.pdf] All efforts to stabilize Afghanistan will fail if the licit _ Rural development critical to solving drug-generated harms Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, and Zakhilwal, senior policy adviser at the Afghan Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, 2k5 [Barnett R. & Omar, Wall Street Journal, 1-11, http://www.cic.nyu.edu/archive/pdf/Farmers.pdf] But while interdiction, not eradication, is therefore 164 _ Placing aid within ANDS solves Rubin, Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation NYU where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, 2k6 [Barnett R., Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy, March, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Afghanistan_CSR.pdf] Recommendation: • International donors, and the United States in particular, Increased, multi-year funding is essential if we are to be effective in Afghanistan Hughes, Former Chief of Staff - Afghanistan Reconstruction Group, U.S. Department of State, 2k6 [Louis, AFGHANISTAN – SUCCESS OR FAILURE?, 11-15, www.aicgs.org/file_manager/streamfile.aspx?path=&name=hughes1106.pdf] From a structural side, we have not put in place 2AC: --AIDS (drug use) --NATO (US pullout of Afghan = collapse NATO) 165 Emory CL Same as varsity—Afghanistan, send in 10,000 troops Emory DS Same as varsity Emory DM 1. 2. 3. Corruption ½ of Afghan aid goes to corruption Corruption is bad Karzai want plan will say yes Karzai wants troops Condiitonal Aid key to reform (2 cards) US forces at breaking point Max deployment in squo Regional instability Make or break yes Bush commitment weak Lakck of commitment = terro/instability Instability = war/global conflict Spillsover to Pakistan Indo pak collapse = nuke war Heg Commitment key to increase trust Prevents global instability = extinction 10k troops solve 166 George Mason BP (all GMU teams) Plan Text: The United States Federal Government should constructively engage with the Islamic republic of Iran by offering a security guarantee that the United States would not preemptively use military force on the condition that Iran normalizes relations with the United States US will strike Iran now- Germany’s refusal to impose sanctions pushes diplomacy off the table- strike will happen in 8-10 months The Jerusalem Post Sept 12 2007 (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1189411396419&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull) Germany's unwillingness to …the nuclear facilities. BUSH’S LATEST RHETORIC MAKE AN ATTACK ON IRAN IMMINENT Tim Shipman, Sunday Telegraph, September 4, 2007 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/02/wiran102.xml On Tuesday, President Bush … reactor in 1981 Contention Two- The Strike and Iranian Retaliation Iran will retaliate in 15 minutes San Francisco Chronicle 2005 /Borzou Daragahi, Staff writer, “Iran Readies Military, Fearing a U.S. Attack Tensions with Bush administration surge over Tehran's disputed nuclear ambition,” http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0221-24.htm Iran has begun …for a weapons program. Iran would lock down the Strait of Hormuz, decimate carrier groups, destroy ground forces, and coordinate terrorist attacks Timmerman, Nobel Peace Prize Nominee for his writing on Iran, 2006 (Kenneth, “Iran Readies Plan to Close Strait of Hormuz” http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/2/28/181730.shtml) Iran's Revolutionary Guards…. targets and against Israel, Open sea lanes in the Strait of Hormuz is critical to the economy. 6-22-2000 Oil resources and … competitive security strategy. That Leads to extinction Mead 92 Walter Russel Mead, Senior Fellow in American FoPo @ the Council on Foreign Relations, World Policy Institute, Hundreds of millions… in the 30s Contention 3- Transatlantic Alliance US-EU RIFT IS GROWING BECAUSE THE MILITARY OPTION IS ON THE TABLE THE GUARDIAN JANUARY 31ST 2007, www.commondreams.org/headlines07/0131-03.htm Senior European policy- area in weeks. AND, Engagement from Washington is critical to US-EU relations. Failure to engage means US-EU relations die. Ferguson & van Ham 2007 [Charles D. Ferguson, fellow for science and technology based in the Washington, DC office of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Peter van Ham, director of global governance research at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael in The Hague and professor at the College of Europe in Bruges, The National Interest, WINTER 2007) A major transatlantic multilateral, with Tehran. The EU-US alliance is critical to preserving US military, economic and political interests globally Hunter 2003 (Robert E., Sr. Fellow @ RAND, TWQ Winter, projectMUSE) 167 The destinies of the United States… economically, and militarily Contention 4- Moderates Lifting sanctions leads to moderate power. Brzezinski, Gates, and Maloney 2004 (Zbigniew, Robert, and Suzanne, “Iran: Time for a New Approach”, Council on Foreign Relations) Conservatives and hard-liners politically painful steps. AND, moderate, democratic Iran provides a model for regional transition to democracy Brzezinski, Gates, and Maloney 2004 (Zbigniew, Robert, and Suzanne, “Iran: Time for a New Approach”, Council on Foreign Relations) Iran thus lies … more democratic order. Democracy in Iran would spread throughout the Middle East Ledeen, 03 (Michael. November. “Nothing to lose but their chains) http://aei.org/publications/pubID.19506,filter.all/pub_detail.asp Iran is ready the liberation of Iraq Democracies are key to prevent extinction Diamond 1995 [Larry Diamond, senior research fellow for Hoover Institute, professor at Stanford University, and co-director of National Endowment for Democracy International Forum for Democratic Studies, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives,” 1995] This hardly exhausts ….sovereignty, and openness. Contention 5- Solvency Constructive dialogue and engagement is only possible with Iran if we stop threatening to attack them. Richardson, 07 [Bill Richardson. New Mexico Governor. Engagement with Iran and Foreign Policy in the Middle East. July 27, 2007. DES5] However, no constructive … in the future. détente with Iran gives moderates power that would create a situation in which Tehran’s relationship with Washington is more important than terrorist ties or the pursuit of nuclear weapons. Takeyh 07(Ray. Foreign Affairs, March/April. “Time for Détente With Iran” The most effective way …its national objectives. Security guarantees and engagement solve. Iran will respond constructively and disable their authoritarian systems. Carpenter 2007. (Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, “Don't Take Covert Action Against Iran” May 25, 2007) Rather than go … growing middle class. Engagement with Tehran solves relations, proliferation, Iraq, regional stability in the Middle East, the war on terror, energy security, Israel, and global leadership. Flynt Leverett 2006 “Dealing with Tehran: assessing U.S. Diplomatic Options toward Iran” Century Foundation Report, pp. 1-30) In the end… security and standing. The plan helps normalize relations by bolstering Iranian pragmatism. A cooperative relationship with Iran is the only hope for peace. Takeyh 2007 (Ray, Senior Fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations, “Time For Détente with Iran”, Foreign Affairs April/May) Over five …foe, the better. 168 Some also read: Terrorism adv-Attack on Iran = they retaliate with worldwide terrorism Washington Post, 2006, “Attacking Iran may trigger terrorism,” Terrorism = extinction Alexander 2003 George Mason KV --see other novices George Mason BG --see other novices George Mason HJ --see other novices George Mason AG --see other novices 169 James Madison DH Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India have all agreed to build the trans-Afghanistan pipeline and the Asian Development Bank has agreed to fund the project. Khaleej Times Online, August 8, 2007, www.khaleejtimes.com “The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has convened….30-years life of the project.” Project is currently stalled. Security guarantee key to trans-Afghan pipeline. Oil and Gas Journal, July 23, 2007 – Lexis. “A feasibility study by the….several years before the TAP.” The U.S. is already supportive. A special security force in Afghanistan is needed. Khaleej Times Online, August 8, 2007, www.khaleejtimes.com “The United States is supportive….for many years to come.” U.S. security training and assistance solves. Azerbaijan proves. Energy Bulletin, April 12, 2005 – http://www.energybulletin.net/6074.html “As for the oil pipeline….to defend the new pipeline.” Plan: The United States Federal Government should constructively engage the government of Afghanistan to offer a security guarantee and foreign assistance to support the security efforts of the Trans-Afghanistan pipeline. The services of the United States Federal Government will be conditioned on the ability of Afghanistan to provide individuals who will become part of the pipeline protection force. Afghanistan Stability Coalition winning now. Fighters number less than a thousand and they can’t control territory. Constable (former bureau chief for Afghanistan, Washington Post) 2007 A Wake-Up Call in Afghanistan, Journal of Democracy, Volume 18, Number 2 April, p. 87-88. “The revived Taliban militia is….150 were international security forces.” Reconstruction efforts needed now to avoid wholesale defection to the Taliban by Afghan citizens. Christian Science Monitor, 2006 Time Running Out in Afghanistan, October 9, Lexis. “The top NATO commander in….decide to back the Taliban.” Failure to combat the Taliban message through economic improvement ensures Afghanistan will spiral out of control. Civil war will ensue and spillover igniting ethnic conflicts throughout central Asia and the Middle East. And if that’s not bad enough, global terrorism will follow. Akbulut (International Strategic Research Organization) July 19, 2007 Isil, If Afghanistan Collapses, Turkish Weekly, www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=46931# “Considering the economic, military power….and come up with alternatives.” This regional instability results in humanitarian disasters, and nuclear war. Ahrari, 2001 (M. Ehsan, Professor of National Security and Strategy of the Joint and Combined Warfighting School at the Armed Forces Staff College, "Jihadi Groups, Nuclear Pakistan and the New Great Game," August) “South and Central Asia constitute….a gain for all concerned.” Specifically, Afghani instability spills over to Pakistan causing the overthrow of Musharraf. FEDOR 02 – Nixon Center Staff Member ( Gregory, "Afghanistan and Pakistan: Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full?," August 8, http://www.nixoncenter.org/Program%20Briefs/vol8no13Afghanistan.htm) “Paula Newberg emphasized that the….by elements of the ISI." Overthrow of Musharraf results in a nuclear terrorist attack against U.S. targets and a nuclear war against India over Kashmir conflict. Brookes 2k7 (Peter, sr. fellow @ the heritage foundation, August 2, pg. http://www.nypost.com/seven/08022007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/baracks_blunder_opedcolumnists_peter_brookes.htm?page=2) “The fall of Musharraf's government….targets, including the United States.” 170 India would retaliate and full scale nuclear war would break-out with other nations being drawn in causing extinction. Helen Caldicott, Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, 2002 [The New Nuclear Danger, The New Press] “The use of Pakistani nuclear….of most life on earth.” And Pakistan keeps several nuclear warheads mated to delivery systems with command and control measures that could be penetrated by terrorists. ELLISON 07 – Researcher at the Center for Defense Information (Brian, “Pakistani Nuclear Arsenal,” April 30, http://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion/printversion.cfm?documentID=2966) “Pakistan is generally believed to….or anti-government groups, including terrorists.” Terrorist attack causes U.S. retaliation that kills millions Easterbrook 2K1 (Greg, November 1, pg. http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0111/01/gal.00.html) “Terrorists may not be held by….in a dozen Muslim countries.” Preventing nuclear terrorism should override all other concerns. Chesney in 97 (Robert, Loyola of Los Angeles International & Comparative Law Journal, November, LN) “The horrible truth is that….priority dominating other policy considerations.” Reconstruction key to prevent failed state that provides a safe-haven for terrorists who would be emboldened to stage another 9/11 style attack.. PETER BERGEN, February 15, 2007 [SENIOR FELLOW, Statement of Peter Bergen Senior Fellow New America Foundation Committee on House Foreign Affairs, Congressional Quarterly; LexisNexis] “2007 will likely be a….the United States and its allies.” Even a small terrorist attack will incite more globally. Ervin 2K6 (Clark Kent, Washington Post, May 7, LN) “To be sure, al-Qaeda has….here has been all but won.” A conventional terrorist attack will cause a massive economic downturn in the U.S. National Public Radio, March 11, 2005 – Lexis. “DIMSDALE: You know, there's a vigorous….as foreigners run for the exits.” Economic downturn causes nuclear war Chris Lewis, environmental historian, University of Colorado-Boulder, THE COMING AGE OF SCARCITY, 1998, p. 56. (MHDRG/D367) “Most critics would argue, probably….the collapse of global civilization.” The TAP will provide ten thousand jobs, hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue to shore up the Afghani economy and provide regional security through energy cooperation and be finished in four years. Haidari (First Secretary, Afghanistan Embassy in DC) 2004 Ashraf, No Security, No Trans-Afghan Pipeline, Afghan Magazine, July http://afghanmagazine.com/2004_07/articles/pipeline.shtml “Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Turkmen ….security through joint project ownership.” Creating jobs and the economy improves the lives of average Afghanis which decreases popularity and recruiting capabilities of the Taliban. Christian Science Monitor, March 27, 2007 Sappenfield, Entrepreneur Hopes to Bottle Success in Afghanistan, Lexis. “For all the focus on….smuggling, corruption, and small-time trade.” Serving as a bridge between the Middle East, Central and South Asia the TAP will create inter-regional economic ties that ensures sustainability of Afghan economy. Jalali (former Interior Minister of Afghanistan & Professor, National Defense University) 2006 Ali, The Future of Afghanistan, Parameters, Spring, p. 17. “Although disadvantaged by its landlocked….is the starting point.” 171 John Carroll LM Plan Text Offer normalized relations, security gurantte, and support for returning Golan in exchange for Israel Syria peace, cooperation on terrorism, pressure to moderate Hamas/Hezbollah and assistance in Iraq Case Structure/Advantages 1. War with Syria (US/Syria/Israel) 2. Iraq Stability 3. Terrorism Isr/Syria willing to negot on Golan Kindhe online “our refusal…than previous efforts” Iraq ! Gitz 07 lexis “we can identify…strategically significant” Syria key to terorsim levitt 02 online “inducing Syria…background noise” 2AC Tricks/Add on No addons; only “trick” is saying Israel and Syria have already agreed over Golan—only US opposition is stopping the deal… 172 John Carroll BB Plan Text S.G. = not regime change Quid pro quo = return of Golin, moderate Hamas/Hezbollah = decrease insurgents = Iraq Case Structure/Advantages 1. Syria war. Instability spillover generically in the region 2. Iraq: insurgents cross Syrian border. Destabilizes country = civil war that escalates 3. Terrorism = Syria key to war on terror 173 Mary Washington KS Iran—same as JV teams Mary Washington AL Iran—same as JV teams Mary Washington AD Iran—same as JV teams Mary Washington GS Iran—same as JV teams 174 Methodist EL & GK Plan Text Therefore, we offer the following plan: The USFG will increase its constructive engagement with Lebanon by 1. Providing Lebanese Army with one billion dollars worth of advanced weaponry via excess defense articles program, and 2. Offering troop support to the Lebanese Government in support of border defense and internal security concerns. Observation 1: Inherency The US has rejected requests by Lebanon for advanced weapons Al Jazeera.net, Alda Massoud 7/12/2007 “In 2006, Beirut….bolster the Lebanese army.” Additionally, the US refuses to commit troops for the support of the Lebanese government SFgate.com, Barry Schneid (AP Writer) 8/23/2006 “Bush has said he does not….that is durable,’ McCormack said.” Observation 2: Advantages I.Syria Syria is using their influence to destabilize Lebanon Time, Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, 5/31/2007 “Speaking from the Grand Serail……former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.” Additionally, Syria uses its influence to siphon billion from Lebanon Middle East Quarterly Gary C. Gambill—Political Analyst for Freedom House and Former editor of Middle East Bulletin Fall 2005 “As Western observers debate how tenaciously Syrian president Bashar al-Assad…..several billion dollars a year.” Indeed, Syrian influence has transformed Lebanon into a global narcotics producer. Gambill 2005 “While Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley was already….seized in Western Europe.” If Lebanon suffers internal strife, terrorism and regional violence will ensue. CRS Report for Congress (Lebanon: The Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah Conflict) Jeremy M. Sharp—Coordinator of the Foreign Affairs, Defense and Trade Division 09/15/2006 “If Lebanon disintegrates….forms of regional instability.” ADV II. Hezbollah The Lebanese army is ineffective because of obsolete equipment Sharp 2006 “Resolution 1701 also welcomes….largely obsolescent equipment.” Hezbollah won’t be disarmed until Lebanon is able to defend itself 175 (Saban Center for ME Policy at the Brookings Institute Memo #7 Paul Salem—Director of the Fares Foundation (Lebanon Development Program) 5/31/2005 “There are two issues closely related to the Hizballah disarmament….deterrent punishment on Israel.” As a matter of fact, Hezbollah has rearmed with the help of Iran and Syria The National Interest (Antony Sullivan—President of Near East Support Services (consulting firm) May/June 2007 “Hizballah’s armory is….lethality against Israel.” Syria and Iran use Hezbollah and its resources as weapons to strikeout at their enemies Foreign Affairs, Daniel Bynam—Asst. Prof. of Security Studies at Georgetown and Sr. Fellow at Saban Center for ME Policy at the Brookings Institute Nov/Dec 2003 “For Syria and Iran…. “buffer” against Israel.” Observation III: Solvency The Lebanese Armed Forces are the long term solution for Lebanon’s problems Time, Andrew Lee Butters, 8/4/2006 “Despite the furious diplomatic…final shape of peace agreement.” The key to a sovereign Lebanese government is a strong army USAID fact sheet, 1/26/2007 “The Cornerstone of a Sovereign…authority of the state.” The Lebanese Armed Forces needs 1 billion in weapons modernization to deal with weapons smuggling, drugs and terrorism Butters 2006 “But even once consensus…dealt by special operations.” As long as these issues continue, future conflicts in the area are going to continue Sharp 2006 “Today, with the PLO long…disputes remain unsolved.” 176 Miami DM PLAN: The USFG should offer the central gov. of Lebanon economic assistance contingent on the funds being used exclusively for reconstruction in South Lebanon Inherency: www.cbc.calcplworld/070830/w083070a.html Harms: Pascual 06, www.aei.org/publications/publD27675 Ornstein 06, www.brookings.edu/views/testimony Khalizad 95 Gordon and Shapiro 06, www.brookings.edu/views/oped/gordon Solvency Philips 06, www. Heritage .org/Research/MiddleEast 177 Richmond LS The US will attack Iran in the next couple of months Elliott, ’07 (“US ‘poised to strike Iran’” online) Bob Baer, the former…works out there. Israel will strike Iran to halt its nuclear program Langer, ’05 (“Israel Increasingly Likely to Strike Iran” online) Israel is sending…Islamic countries Iran has an undemocratic oppressive regime—Iranian government manipulates elections and stamps out attempts of political reform Fridman and Kaye, ’07 (“Human Rights in Iran” online) The Guardian Council…political reform Plan Text (word for word I promise): Thus we offer the following plan: The United States Federal Government should enter into constructive engagement with the government of Iran by offering a security guarantee that forbids the United States from inducing or supporting military strikes against Iranian targets and by offering Iran access to nuclear energy Advantage 1: Democracy Democrat movements in Iran have been dealt a series of setbacks—despite this a democratic transition is possible – only the US can kickstart the process and spur democratization in Iran McFaul, Diamond, Milani, ’07 (Washington Quarterly, lexis) The presence of a…from Washington Democracy in Iran would spread throughout the Mid-East Ledeen, ’03 (“Nothing to lose but their chains” online) Iran is ready for…been seen for generations Democracies are key to prevent extinction Diamond, ’95 (online) This hardly…sovereignty, and openness Advantage 2: Nuclear Apartheid American policies are determined to create Nuclear apartheid in Iran BBC 05 (lexis) As world media follow…nuclear technology Racism perpetuates colonialism, violence, and environmental destruction, which continues to devastate the world. We must take a stance against the atrocities of racism; your ballot is an extension of our protest. Barndt ’91 (Dismantling Racism: The Continuing Challenge to White America p. 155-56) To study racism…allow it to continue Calling the distribution of nuclear resources “nuclear apartheid” has political weight—it calls into context the international racialized hierarchy in contemporary politics especially in terms of nuclear non-prolif Biswas, ’01 (“‘Nuclear apartheid’ as political position: race as a postcolonial resource?” Alternative: Global, Local, Political) It is clear that the…inequitable global order Solvency A policy of diplomatic engagement with Iran would prevent conflict with Iran, save the faltering Iranian economy, and spur democratic reform within Iran Carpenter, ’07 (“Don’t Take Covert Action Against Iran” online) Rather than go…political elites Israel would not strike without US approval Melman and Javedanfar, ’07 (The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran p. 224) Other experts tend…granted in advance Constructive engagemtn is a reversal of current racist US nuclear policies Krieger, ’05 (“US Nuclear Hypocrisy: Bad for the US, bad for the World” online) Every five years…rest of the world. 178 Trinity PR, NP, HH, & BF Inherency Current microfinance insufficient for rural arease Fikari, 2004 “…the difficult effort to reach provinces outside Kabul…” Stability Rural Afghanistan is key to overall stability. Jones 07 “A military strategy... not in capital of Kabul” Afghan stability key overall security Wool Ryan 07 Spill over into central asia Lau 06 “Islamic militants may slip back across the borders” Most likely scenario for nuclear war Blank 00 We solve India Pakistan conflict * India Pak war risks extinction. Washington Post 00 Soft power Soft power continues to dissolve Nye 05 Economic assistant key to soft power Levin 07 Plan key to reach out to Muslim world Benjamin 07 Soft power solves laundry list including disease spread Nye 06 Disease spread risks extinction Steinberg 97 Soft power key to heg Nye 06 Khalizad 95 Micro-credit loans targeted at rural areas of the country Solvency Funding micro-financing solves drug trade. Benjamin 07 US micro solves soft power and avoids aid bad arguments. Benjamin 06 Micro-credit loans spur economic empowerment for women Roe 2003 US is critical to other countries modeling. Rashid 07 Women’s rights Women’s rights in Afghanistan is a sham. The word women is a slur. Lack of microfinance ensures violence against women. Chess 06 Violence against women makes all forms of violence inevitable. NYT 83 179 Army AC Same as the rest—Afghanistan judicial reform Army EM Same as the rest—Afghanistan judicial reform Army KN Same as the rest—Afghanistan judicial reform 180 Wake Forest TW Contention One is InherencyFirst, new U.S. assistance to Afghanistan is insufficient --- ‘bare bones’ funding approaches guarantee escalating instability Colucci ‘07 (Craig, Captain – U.S. Army, Military Review, 5-1, www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-163680156.html) Second, current funding for crop-substitution isn’t enough and eradication strategies are counter-productive. IRIN in 2007 [Integrated Regional Information Networks, “Fighting a Losing Battle Against Opium Production,” March 5, http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=70511] Contention Two is U.S. CredibilityFirst, Afghanistan is a test case for U.S. leadership --- robust assistance key to overall credibility RI ‘02 (Refugee International, 1-10, http://www.refugeesinternational.org/content/article/detail/1337/) Second, Perception --- under-investment is creating a belief that Afghanistan isn’t a priority for the U.S. --- risks complete state collapse and massive violence Rubin ‘07 (Barnett R., Senior Fellow at Center for Int’l Cooperation – NYU, “Salvaging Afghanistan”, 3-1, http://armedservices.senate.gov/statemnt/2007/March/Rubin%2003-01-07.pdf) Third, Afghani failure crushes U.S. global leadership. Wisner ‘03 (Frank III, Co-Chair – Independent Study Group Report on Afghanistan, CFR, 6-23, http://www.cfr.org/publication.html?id=6069) Engaging Afghanistan key to U.S. leadership --- solves global WMD conflicts Obama ‘07 (Barack, Presidential Candidate, D-Il, Foreign Affairs, July/August, Lexis) This credibility is critical to sustainable U.S. leadership- only way to prevent the escalation of global conflict. Nye ‘96 (Joseph S., Jr., dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Winter, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. 1, “Conflicts after the Cold War”) Global nuclear war Khalilzad ‘95 (Zalmay, RAND Corporation, Losing The Moment? Washington Quarterly, Vol 18, No 2, p. 84) Contention Three is PovertyFirst, the current strategy of eradication devastates already poor farming families. Crop substitution is vital to ensure alternative livelihoods. ICG in 2005 [International Crisis Group, “Letter to Rice- Afghanistan,” http://www.opensocietypolicycenter.org/pub/doc_57/Letter%20to%20Rice-Afghanistan.pdf] Second, we must respond to poverty. Ignoring this kind of structural violence is worse than ongoing thermonuclear war. Abu-Jamal 98 (Mumia, Cop Killer, "A Quiet and Deadly Violence", September 19, http://www.angelfire.com/azlcatchphraze/mumiaswords.html) Poverty is the most evil form of death, pain, and humiliation- its qualitatively worse than other ways of dying. 181 Dower 1993 Nigel, Prof. Of Philosophy @ Univ. of Aberdeen, “World Poverty”, A Companion to Ethics. Blackwell Publishing, Pg. 275-282 Fourth, we have a responsibility to act in the face of poverty. If they don’t have a counterplan, you should automatically default affirmative. Bernie Gert, Prof of Philosophy at Dartmouth, 2004 (Common Morality: Deciding What to Do, pg. 69-70) 8. Are there any alternative actions or policies that would be morally preferable? Finally, we have a moral obligation to do the plan even if government aid fails. Dower 1993 Nigel, Prof. Of Philosophy @ Univ. of Aberdeen, “World Poverty”, A Companion to Ethics. Blackwell Publishing, Pg. 275-282 Contention 4 is India-PakistanFirst, The U.S. needs Musharraf to crack-down on Islamic extremists inside of Pakistan, but domestic opposition makes him unsure about backing America. The Star-Ledger in 2007 [John Farmer, “Far more to fear from Pakistan than Iraq,” July 20, lexis] Second, U.S. engagement in Afghanistan changes Musharraf’s decision calculus and emboldens him to take on Islamic extremists. Failure to take action causes him to lose faith in the U.S. and cave politically. Biden in 2007 [Joseph, Democratic Senator and Presidential Candidate, Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Interview With William Caldwell; Interview With Shaukat Aziz, CNN Late Edition, May 27, lexis] And, October is key- Musharraf’s re-election will alter the political landscape. U.S. action in Afghanistan is uniquely perceived. Neena Gopal, analyst and special reporter on the Asia area, 9-16, 2007, Let’s Not Forget Afghanistan, Gulf News, p. lexis Fourth, cracking down on Islamic extremists in key to the Indo-Pak peace process. Perception of Musharraf’s commitment defuses tension and eliminates the risk of nuclear conflict. Delay or waffling causes India to lose trust and back out of negotiations. Malhotra, Chinoy, and Swamy in 2002 [Jyoti, Mike, and L.D., “A look at the tensions between India and Pakistan,” Insight, CNN International, June 4, lexis] Global nuclear war. Fai ‘01 (Ghulam Nabi, Executive Director, Kashmiri American Council, Washington Times, 7-8) And, failure to crack down massively increases the risk of nuclear terrorism. This is the biggest threat in the region. The Star-Ledger in 2007 [John Farmer, “Far more to fear from Pakistan than Iraq,” July 20, lexis] Nuclear terrorism causes extinction even if it is unsuccessful. Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, political analyst, August 26 – September 1, 2004, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm U.S. action is critical- any faltering reignites ethnic rifts and dooms Musharraf, guaranteeing a collapse of the peace process. Oakley ‘03 (Robert, Fmr Ambassador – Pakistan and Visiting Fellow – National Defense U., Washington Post, 1-3) Strong U.S. commitment to Afghanistan solves Pakistani fears of Indian encirclement --- key to South Asia stability Markey ‘07 182 (Daniel, PhD – Princeton and Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, Foreign Affairs, July/August, Lexis) Plan --The United States Federal Government should promote crop-substitution for poppy farmers in Afghanistan, including substantially increasing government-to-government financial assistance to fund the cost of farmers destroying their crops or turning them over for destruction, subsidize farmers who choose to grow alternatives to poppies, and fund the development of agricultural infrastructure. We’ll clarify. Contention 5 is SolvencyProviding crop subsidies and agricultural infrastructure ensure a sustainable alternative to poppy production. Bergen ‘07 (Peter, Senior Fellow – New America Foundation, CQ Testimony, 2-15, Lexis) U.S. economic assistance is necessary to reduce illegal drug production- other organizations don’t want to intervene. Marquardt ‘05 (Erich, Senior Analyst – Power and Interest News Report, “Insurgents, Warlords, and Opium Roil Afghanistan, EurasiaNet, 11-18, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/pp111805.shtml) 183 West Virginia LW Plan text: The United States Federal Government should increase its Constructive engagement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by offering a security guarantee in the form of a treaty pleding that the Uinted States will halt all efforts to impede Iran’s development of nuclear technology. Enforcement and Implementation guaranteed thorugh normal means. We reserve right to clarify Don’t bother running procedural because our plan is a security gurantee Freeman ’03 (“Knowledge Base Essay: Security Gurantees”) Barbara Walter…general instruments Inherency Current international efforts to halt Iranian nuclear prolif are a miserable failure. Regardless of what you hear in “The No Spin Zone” coercive international pressure has done nothing to stop Iran’s development of nuclear weapons McFAul, Milani, and Diamond , 07 (online) Formulation of a new…since the revolution In fact, US saber rattling has rendered Iranian procurement of nuclear weapons inevitable Eland, ’07 (online) The Bush administration…already generated Buy why is it that we seek to stop Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. Are nuclear aeapons in the nds of Iran more threatening than nuclear weapons in the hands of the US, THE ONLY COUNTRY THAT HAS ACTUALLY USED THE WAPONS IN THE PAST? Why does Bill O’Reilley feel justified when he blatantly describes the Iranian regime as an existential threat to the entire world? A careful examination of the history of US-Iranian relations answers these questions: Our fears that Iranian nuclear weapons pose a global threat are neither objective nor neutral. Instead, they indebted to an imperialist line of thinking under which the Islamic Republoic is viewed as inherently evil, irrational, and diametriacally opposed to the Liberal Democratic values that define America. Hurd, ’04 (“The International Politics of Secularism: US Foreign Policy and the Islamic Republic of Iran” Alternative: Global, Local, Political) The politics of secularism..remain so contentious Advantage 2: Nuclear Orientalism The construction of Iran as violent and irrational is ever present in the debate aobut Iranian nuclear weapons. The idea that Iran, unlike the US, cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons is merely a continuation of the Orientalist assumptions that have underscored US foreign policy since the Iranian Revolution. This form of Orientalism is an ideological apparatus that sustains a heirarchichal conception of the US-Iranian relations under whichi domination and imperlaism are essential to matintain international order. Gusterson 99 (“Nuclear Weapons and the Other in Western Imagination” JSTOR) Following Anthony…of various kinds” (1990) At bottom, this externalization of violence is the root casue of conflict between the US and Iran. Until we are able free ourseovels from the prison of Orientalism, violent conflict between the US and Iran is inevitable. Its try or die. Zizek ’05 (online) But are nuclear…feel threatened Solvency Our plan exposes the dominant narratives that permeate the discussion of Iranian nuclear weapons as what ehy are: normative political assertions designed to legitmaize imperliasm. In a wolrd absent the aff, these narrative foreclose the possibility of true progressive change Said, 94 (The Politics of Dispossession, p. 353-356) It would be irresposbile to…to become “terrorism.” 184 Novice Negative 185 Augustana MP EU do the plan CP Aid Tradeoff Appeasement T Substantial Increase 186 Boston College MR For al Boston College teams: Procedurals: T – quid pro quo Disads: Russia-China counterbalancing (Shanghai Corporation) Turkey sphere of influence Political capital good (Peru FTA) Boston College SW SCO DA Russia is reclaiming influence in M.E.—Tsygankou 06 Increased US influence causes Russia and China to expand SCO, Oest 07 SCO expansion undermines international stability and causes power wars, Oest 07 US-Russia conflict will go nuclear, causing extinction, McNamara 01 Peru Politics Uniqueness (passing now) Dow Jones Capital Markets, October, 2007 Plan drains Bush’s capital, Lancaster, 2007 Bush needs capital, Wilson Center, 2007 Peru FTA key to democracy, Heritage Foundation, 2007 Democracy key to preventing whatnot, Murauchik, 2001 187 Clarion SS & RZ For all Clarion teams Procedurals: T – constructive engagement cannot require quid pro quo T—CE must be conditioned Paraphrased arguments good for slow debate! Disads: Appeasement Investor confidence Latin A. Aid trade off War on terror, US weakness increases terrorism Confidence picking up, export opportunities are growing Daily Commercial NEws 10-30 http://dcnonl.com/article/stats/24897 "Prospects for the U.S. manufacturing....investing in the U.S. first." Links Middle East instability makes investment in the US a lock-we're the safer play. The plan reverses this trend. Hammond et al, Chief Investment Strategist for TIAA-CREF Asset Management, 2k6 BRett, "Risk versus Uncertainty in the Middle East," 7-24, www.tiaacref.org/about/press/publications/market_monitor/2006_07_24.pdf "In times of escalated international tensions...more volatile than treasuries." Loss of Foreign investment jacks the economy Isadore, 9-18-07, Chris, Senior writer 4 CNN money, cnn.money.com "Another risk to the economy would be a drop....if it is cutting rates." MPX--Mead They also read a petrodollar link story 188 Emory DoSt, CL, DM US Israel Relations DA US Israeli relations are strong—our foreign policies are aligned in the Mid-East. Wash Times 07 (lexis) Mr. Jones noted that the…he said. Engaging Iran devastates relations with Israel Gulf News ‘6 (online) Sure enough…by Tel Aviv US Israeli relations are key to regional stability—the alliance deters Arab attacks and oil shocks. Kramer, ’06 (online) My answer, to…of overturning it T – substantial EU CP Dip Cap – Iraq Fiscal Restraint Rice DA (see varsity caselist) Politics, LOST Good—solves WMD and extinction 189 George Mason BP, KV, BG, HJ, AG For all GMU teams: Procedurals: ASPEC T – quid pro quo vagueness Disads: Appeasement Russia counterbalancing Aid trade-off Diplomatic focus trade-off o Iraq failure, Russian heg somehow emboldens terrorists , economic mpx Politics o Iraqi surge good o Political capital – Bush economic policy good, pro-business Kritiks: Violence is an inherent part of life and shouldn’t try to solve it, but embrace. Alternative is to embrace violence. Securitization (Dillon) Shunning nuclearism CPs: sanctions Against prolif: Prolif. good Against Syria: Israeli presence increases GHts Stability and infrastructure Aid funds Syrian Bio and Chem weapons program Syria will go nuclear and leads to AR and war 190 James Madison DH Procedurals: T – nation building Disads: Saudi relations Spending (interest rates internal link) China Shanghai Leadership Organization sphere of influence, Taiwan reunification mpx scenario Kritiks: Imperialism/colonialism Against Iran Aff: Topicality sec guar existing treaty CP: USFG should attack Iran—CP best policy option Iran is a threat the world cannot ignore perez 07 “…will acquire nuclear weapons … mutually assured destruction… postponement of preemption…evidence to support this claim…entirely legal” Us successful destroy every site in 4 days Davine 06 Failure to strike causes nuclear weapon proliferation. * Khalizad 95 Strikes solve not nuclear Time 06 “military action have decent chance of succeeding…trigger downfall” Strike easy only two places matter. Brown 06 Iran is a threat. Bawnburben 2006. “…the Iran regime threaten…by late October.” Iran has bad intentions. Gardiner 2007 “greatest threat to global security of our generation.” Iran weapons destroy the economy through nuclear arms race. “deter a military response…The United States could credibly threaten …” Bearden 00 Iran would give bomb to terrorist. Defarza 07 “….Islam extremist…metaterrorist...” Nuclear attack on US ensures hundreds dies. * Israel strikes. Josi, 07 “….Iran or Syria …hair trigger alert…” Escalate to nuclear usage. Josi 07. “…war not limited…” Nuclear war spill over perez 07 “…enemy states…second strike capability” US must strike now “…specter of…Iranaian bomb…U.S. threats” Destroy US Israeli relations 191 John Carroll LM, BB For all JCU teams Disads: Heg bad Kritiks: empire CPs: Constructively disengage from the ME - we will be forced to withdraw violently in the SQ but plan constructively withdraws and it is peaceful and solves all the problems of the US in the ME like Afghanistan, Iraq, etc. 192 Mary Washington KS, AL, AD, GS For all MWU teams: Procedurals: T – foreign assistance must be quid pro quo T – constructive engagement is unconditional ASPEC Disads: North Korean politics – solving NK now, engaging Syria derail plans with NK, arms race, terrorism and war Iran politics – hardliner incompetence public backlash which is key to democratic transition, engagement prevents democratic transition and props up the regime, ME key to democracy, solves nuclear war and extinction Saudi relations – engaging Iran Sunni backlash, causes oil price spikes, destroys economy Lebanese independence – revolution in Lebanon to democracy, engaging Syria return to Lebanon, Lebanese independence key to solve terrorism and democracy Sunni-Shia polarization – engaging Iran Sunni backlash and trades-off with Saudi relations, oil price spikes Appeasement DA—plan is perceived as appeasement, sparks backlash against US, leads to war, etc. Russian Oil—Putin’s stabilization of Russia dependent on high oil prices—plan decreases oil prices by increasing stability in the ME—stabilized Russia key to preventing nuclear war and extinction Kritiks: nuclearization CPs: The USFG should give cash money to the govt of Afghanistan for stuff enforce secondary sanctions against nations that trade with iran and put a travel ban on the elite Case arguments against Afghanistan poppies: Aid to government wont solve w/o overhaul to eliminate corruption (negarar 07) Misuse of funds and donor hiring practices facilitate corruption of aid, Daily afghanistan 07 Corruption widespread at even most senior levels-everyone is out for own interests and power at expense of democratic and effective policies, Shams 07 Aid agencies unpopular – widespread perceptions of corruption snd security sllocation weaken aid effectiveness, Gall & waldman, 04 Warlord & territorial instability prevent effective counter-narcotics, Felbab-brown, Harvard Afghan traffickers have enough opium stored for years, Felbab-brown, Harvard 05 Farmers get stuck in opium business because of credit issues w/ local warlords, UNODC, 07 Failure of credit leads to opium production, Mansfield 05 Illegal opium markets inevitable –warlords or other actors will fill-in, Global research 07 Squo solves-eradication is the only way to solve afghan opium production Local corruption widespread and law enforcement is extremely understaffed, Constable 07 Rebuilding the judiciary and ending government corruption are prerequisites to counter-narcotics, Jalai and hunter 06 Cant solve afghan drugs – farmers wont accept assistance, warlords disrupt aid, the judicial system fails and local backlash to drug opposition Even if there is no reserve of opium, It takes years to establish rule of law, Jalali and Hunter, 06 Targeting opium through economic and political development takes decades to solve, Reuter and Greenfield willems 04 Transitions make instability inevitable Case arguments against Syria: Syria says no – laundry list of reasons, anti-American, totalitarianism, sense of victory and invulnerability, they’ll lie and cheat in negotiations, they profit from instability, and will milk the process for time and more bribes Bashar won’t engage Syria won’t allow peace with Israel Golan peace war b/c no Israeli deterrence 193 Methodist EL, GK For all Methodist teams T – government-government (not NGOs) T-Increase means greater not a new program Orientalism Discourse in 1ac creates a dangerous us versus them dichotomy Rorett 02 “….during the initial days the perpetrators….one is lacking something the opposite embodies…” We must overcome false representations by recognizing all cultures are equal. Mime 06 “…even as late as the eighteenth century…the west discovered it cannot live peacefully…less dangerous world…” Contribute to Orientalist view desensitize us to history and culture genocide. Academic knowledge of the Middle East shifts to instrumentalist approach. The alt is to reject the Affirmative and reach the community on a global scale. Edward 2003 “Now is the time …” 194 Miami DM Procedurals: T – foreign assistance = foreign aid T – quid pro quo T – must include dialogue Disads: China sphere of influence Israeli encirclement LOST Kritiks: Orientalism Badiou – dehumanization Biopolitics - War/genocide inevitable. The sovereign state and gov. are the root of all evil and responsible for the world's worst human atrocities, "Means without ends, notes on politics" – Agamben Feminism, militarization, discourse Terror talk CPS: EU does plan 195 Richmond LS Gifting Kritik—the affirmative is conditional hospitality—a gift that takes the method of gifting that should be rejected—Derrida 03 (“Philosophy in a time of terror: Dialogues w/ Jurgen Habermas & Jacques Derrida) Gift is a forced bargain, masked in benevolence and reconstructs dominance/subordination binary Alternative is unconditional hospitality—giving w/o expectations of receiving is the only way to escape the aff’s double bind to solve the case Other cites— Margaroni—“Jane Campion’s selling of the motherland: restaging the crisis of the postcolonial subject” McGonegal “the tyranny of Gift Giving: the politics of generosity in Sarah Scott’s Millenium Hal and Sir George Ellison” Wolfson “Assaulting the Border: Kabbalistic traces in the margins of Derrida” Nuclear Apartheid Kritik “nuclear apartheid” as political position: race Shampa Biswas, 2001—Alternatives: Global. Local, Political 196 Trinity PR, NP, HH, BF Trinity—Aid Trade Off DA a) Uniqueness—Bush has recently pledged large amounts of aid to Latin America in order to decrease growing anti-American sentiment. Alberts 2007 (Sheldon, National Post, “Bush doles out some Latin love: South American trip aimed at mending relations,” 3/9, factiva) “For the better part of his…Council on Foreign Relations.” b) Link—New foreign assistance programs designed to foster security trade-off with aid to Latin America Sanchez 2006 (Marcela, “Linking foreign aid and security”, San Diego Tribune, 1/28, http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060128/news_lzle28sanchez.html “Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice last week…our national security objectives.” c) Impact—US aid is vital to pro US sentiment in Latin America Chico 2007 (Gery, Chicago Sun-Times, “If US wants to spread democracy, don’t forget Latin America,” 1/6, factiva) “If we worried about…basics in various nations there.” d) US disengagement from South America has left a vacuum for China to fill in. The history of communism proves that South American countries will soon fall like dominoes, opening the door to full state conflict. Frisch 2005 (Gordon, Research Editor/Geopolitical Analyst for International Harry Schultz Letter, the world’s premier international investment, financial, geopolitical newsletter with subscribers in 71 countries, “Commentary on Global Issues,” 3/05, http://www.jrnyquist.com/frisch_2005_0305.htm) “The China Factor: In November 2004, Chinese President…nuclear missile delivery systems.” e) China will use this new position with Latin America to encircle the U.S. Nyquist 2006 (Jeffrey, Former Contractor in Soviet/Russian Analysis Group for US Defense Intelligence Agency, Former Ph.D. Student at UC-Irvine in Political Sociology, and widely syndicated columnist and published author, “More Tricks,” 3/24, http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2006/0324.html “The shortest distance between two points…strategic encirclement emerges.” Successful encirclement leads to a preemptive biological weapons strike against the US designed to decimate the US population Nyquist 2007, Jeffrey, former contractor in Soviet/Russian Analysis Group for U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Former Ph.D. Student at UC-Irvine in Political Sociologyk, and widely syndicated columnist and published author, “China’s Military Strategy,” 3/09, http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2007/0309.html “Of course, this plan of battle….blink and avert our gaze.” 197 Army AC Neg Strat 1. T: security gurantee = protection from outside attack 2. Russia Counterbalancing DA Russia is trying to moderate US Dominance in the Mid-East—New US Action is viewed as zero-sum by Putin Power and Interest News Report, ’06 (online) Moscow is in…national interests. US unilateralism into Russian affairs leads to Russian aggressive counterbalancing Simes, ’99 (After the Collapse, p. 224) Conversely, on the American…difficult to develop. Russian Aggression leads to nuclear war Nyquist, ’01 (online) Unfortunatley, the main…instead of shrinking. 3. Consult Russia CP Russia wants to be consulted on issues regarding the Mid-East Blank, ’03 (online) While much of the…Western Civilization Army EM Topicality—Security Guarantee Distinction between security assurance and security guarantee—security assurance (promise not to attack) is not a security guarantee (promise to fight against someone who attacks the country Oil Pipeline Plan decreases oil prices High oil prices key to funding oil pipeline from Iran through Kashmir to China and India Dialogue that takes place between India and Pakistan about the pipeline is key to opening communication and preventing conflict Kashmir goes nuclear Israel Olmert is in control of Israeli government now Plan is a concession which weakens Olmert and causes the gov’t to have early elections Early elections means Netanyahu gets elected and hardliners get control They’ll attack Iran This goes nuclear Army KN 198 Wake Forest TW Consult Nato Text: The United States Federal Government should propose that it should… To the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for binding consultation. The United States Federal Government should abide by the results of consultation. We’ll clarify. The disposition of our cp is logical limited conditionality—the neg gets to run one cp, and they can revert to the status quo at any time. The status quo must always be a logical policoption to prevent a policmaker from being forced to implement a bada policy – dispo is illogical because proving the cp is bad does not prove that the plan is good. It’s not topical—the cp test the word “resolved” which means “to make a firm decision about” – it also test the world “should” which is “used to express obligation or duty” – cp that test the resolution are key to predictable neg ground Consultation cps are elg neg ground on a foreign policy topic, it offset the aff adcantage of selecting the ground, is limited by net benefit lit, and the affshould be prepared to defend unilateral action. Even if we lose this, theory shdouldn’t be a voting issue – rejecting the arg is sufficient, any other alternative causes substantive crowd out. Net Benefit is Nato Cohesion NATO is at a key turning point because of a lack of consultation—a renewed commitment is key to cohesion De Nevers, 07 (NATO’s International Security Role in the Terrorist Era, p. 34-66) This examination of NATO’s…commitment to NATO Prior consultation is necessary to prevent alliance collapse Heuser 92 (“What Nuclear Strategy for Post Cold War Europe?” Academic Search Elite) Existing threats and risks…the smaller allies. Collapse of NATO causes multiple escalatory nuclear wars Duffield 94 (NATO’s functions after the Cold War” infotrac) Initial analyses of…nuclear weapons. LOST DA Capital key to pass LOST Kraus, 07 (online) Although the current…needed for accession Impact – LOST key to access SLOCs and signals US leadership Eahleburger and Moore ’07 (lexis) Foreign policy concerns…important issue Naval mobility prevents global WMD conflicts Peele ’97 (Parameters) There are presently six…can be protected Global nuclear war Khalilzad ’95 (Washington Quarterly, lexis) Under the third option…power system 199 West Virginia LW US efforts to foster peace in the Middle East will immediately drive down oil prices: Agence France Press, June 15, 2007 Syria has to choose between low and high oil prices-US engagement will contribute to a decrease in oil prices: Andrew Tabler, International Herald Tribune: Help Syria and Syria will Help August 7, 2006 A Saudi collapse spreads in the Mideast and collapses the global economy: Robert Bear, Sleeping with the Devil, 2003, pg 206-7 Global War results from economic decline: Walter Russell Mead, Los Angeles times, Aug 23, 1998 US is pursing an aggressive policy towards rogue nations in the status quo: Boston Globe 1-31-07 Policies of appeasement like the plan embolden rogues and risk global war: Henriksen 1999, “Using power and diplomacy to deal with rogue states.” Constructive Engagement with Syria empirically morphs into appeasement Gary C. Gambill, 2004, Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, Vol. 6, No. 9 Russia expects to be consulted on the Middle East: Stephen Blank, 2006 A Russia US war will end in global apocalypse: Yesin, Defense and Security, No 78 July 2007 200
