WEEKLY OVERVIEW OF FOREX, GOLD AND OIL
USD WEEKLY OVERVEIW :
U.S. economic growth braked more sharply than
initially thought in the fourth quarter amid a
moderate increase in business inventories and a
wider trade deficit, but strong domestic demand
brightened the outlook. Gross domestic product
expanded at a 2.2 percent annual pace, revised
down from the 2.6 percent pace estimated last
month. The economy grew at a 5 percent rate in
the third Quarter. Growth is poised to pick up in
the first quarter now that the threat of an
inventory overhang has diminished. However, an
exceptionally cold and snowy February, as well as
reductions in oil and gas drilling, could limit the
pace of expansion. Businesses accumulated
$88.4 billion worth of inventory in the fourth
quarter, far less than the $113.1 billion the
government had estimated last month. That
resulted in the GDP growth contribution from
inventories being cut to one-tenth of a percentage
point from 0.8 percentage point previously. With
households bullish about the economy's
prospects, thanks to a tightening labor market
and lower gasoline prices, consumer spending is
likely to remain at lofty levels this year. A second
report showed the University of Michigan's final
February reading on the overall index on
consumer sentiment was 95.4, higher than the
initial reading of 93.6. While that was a retreat
from January's reading of 98.1, it was the second
highest level since January 2007. First-quarter
growth estimates currently range between a rate
of 2.4 percent and 3 percent.
PAKISTANI RUPEE MOVEMENT:
The Pak Rupee remained week this week as
compared to last week when it closed on last Friday
in interbank market at Rs.101.75/80 and
Rs.101.70/90 in the open market.
In the interbank market this week on Monday it was
Rs.101.74/76 but weakened to Rs.101.83/86 on
Friday. In the open market it was Rs.101.80/102.00
on Monday while it closed at Rs.101.90/102.10 on
Friday.
GBP/USD Weekly Overview
The pound in the whole week was try to move up but it
weak data imposed to down ward it directions British
Industry data was not good week index of U.K. retailers
Feb 23 –27 2015
plunged by 38.0 points to a 21-month low of 1.0 in
February from 39.0 in January. that U.K. mortgage
approvals rose more than expected last month. dollar in
quiet trade, as sentiment on the greenback remained
vulnerable after a recent string of downbeat U.S. data.
The pound edged lower against the U.S. dollar , after
data showed that consumer price inflation in the U.K.
slowed to a record-low in January and February. Reapproaching a more than one-month high as it was
boosted by upbeat U.K. data, while demand for the
greenback remained broadly weaker. The pound held
steady close to more than one-month highs against the
U.S. dollar , as the greenback remained under pressure
after the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting
indicated that interest rates could stay on hold for a
longer period. The sterling fell later in the U.S. session,
as the greenback reacted positively to the latest series of
mixed economic data.
TECHNICAL
(GBP/USD)
GBP/USD
WEEKLY
TIME
STUDY
OPEN
1.5385
S3
S2
USING
HIGH
1.5550
S1
LUTFI
MAGNET
THEORY
LOW
1.5331
CLOSE
1.5437
CHANGE
-0.33%
MAGNET
POINT
R1
R2
R3
Weekly 1.5001 1.5220 1.5329 1.5439 1.5548 1.5658 1.5877
EUR/USD Weekly Overview
The euro extended losses against the U.S. dollar
concerns over Greece's debt crisis continued to weigh
and an upbeat report on U.S. manufacturing activity lent
further support to the greenback. German business
confidence improved to the highest level in seven
months in February, as investors remained cautious
regarding Greece's new bailout deal. The euro eased
back from low against the dollar on Tuesday, after euro
area finance ministers approved Greece’s reform
program, clearing the way for a four month extension of
the country’s bailout. euro zone consumer price inflation
fell 0.6% last month, in line with expectations and
unchanged from a preliminary estimate. The euro was
almost unchanged against the dollar in quiet trade on
Wednesday, as investors scaled back expectations on the
timing of a U.S. rate hike, while lingering concerns over
the conditions attached to Greece’s bailout extension
also kept investors cautious. The euro fell against the
dollar after a larger than expected increase in U.S.
durable goods orders offset a drop in inflation and an
increase in jobless claims.
WEEKLY OVERVIEW OF FOREX, GOLD AND OIL
TECHNICAL
(EUR/USD)
TIME
STUDY
S3
S2
USING
S1
LUTFI
MAGNET
POINT
Weekly 1.0819 1.1036 1.1114
1.1253
MAGNET
R1
THEORY
R2
R3
1.1331 1.1470 1.1687
EUR/USD
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
CHANGE
WEEKLY
1.1378
1.1392
1.1175
1.1192
1.64 %
USD/JPY Weekly Overview
The yen was little changed against the dollar on after the
minutes of the Bank of Japan’s January meeting three
policymakers expressed doubts the central bank can
meet its inflation target because of a slowdown in
underlying prices and falling oil prices. Federal Reserve
Chair Janet Yellen said that rates will remain on hold for
at least the next couple of meetings, but indicated that
rate hikes would follow later in the year. The Japanese
yen weakened in Asia on Thursday with comments from
a bank of Japan board member suggesting hitting
sustained 2% inflation in the coming year remains
difficult. Overnight, the dollar remained broadly lower
against the yen on Wednesday, after downbeat U.S. new
home sales data . The Japanese yen held stronger in Asia
on Friday as hopes for growth were seen in higher than
expected industrial output, though unemployment,
consumer prices and retail sales disappointed. Overnight,
the U.S. dollar soared against the yen on Thursday,
following the release of a flurry of economic data that
sent the dollar upward against its main rivals.
TECHNICAL STUDY USING LUTFI MAGNET THEORY (USD/JPY)
TIME
S3
S2
S1
Weekly
116.59
117.77
118.49
USD/JPY
WEEKLY
OPEN
119.07
MAGNET
POINT
118.95
HIGH
119.82
R1
R2
R3
119.67
120.13
121.31
CLOSE
119.61
CHANGE
-0.45%
LOW
118.61
Gold Rate in Pakistan
In this week gold plays the good rally most player
make huge gains in gold and because the gold play
both side due to the Greece issue . we hope next
week play the Bullish patterns in Pakistani markets
because the world market is bearish . The closing
rate are (1Tola) 46857.53 Rs and (10 gram)
40215.81 Rs .
Feb 23 –27 2015
GOLD Weekly Overview
U.S. existing home sales fell more than expected in
January to hit the lowest level in nine months,
dampening optimism over the health of the housing
market. Gold prices gained in Asia after better than
expected HSBC China flash PMI data. Overnight, gold
fell to the lowest level in seven. Gold rose $1,200 an
ounce on Wednesday, as comments from Federal
Reserve. China's return from a week-long Lunar New
Year holiday also supported gold prices, with premiums
on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rising. Gold held on to
gains investors digested a raft of U.S. data on initial
jobless claims, consumer price inflation and durable
goods orders. The U.S. Department of Labor said the
number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits
increased by 31,000 last week to 313,000 from the
previous week’s total of 282,000.
TECHNICAL STUDY USING LUTFI MAGNET THEORY (Gold)
TIME
S3
S2
S1
MAGNET
POINT
Weekly 1148.97 1178.32 1195.43
R1
R2
R3
1207.67
1224.78 1237.02 1266.37
Gold
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
CHANGE
WEEKLY
1202.55
1219.90
1190.55
1212.55
-0.83%
Oil Weekly Overview
West Texas Intermediate oil futures fell sharply on
Friday, after data showed that the pace of falling rigs in
the U.S. slowed last week, underlining concerns over a
glut in supplies. West Texas Intermediate oil futures
extended sharp losses from last week on Monday, as a
broadly stronger dollar and lingering concerns over a
glut in global supplies drove down prices. West Texas
Intermediate oil futures declined for the sixth
consecutive session on Tuesday, as lingering concerns
over a supply glut in the U.S. drove down prices. West
Texas Intermediate oil futures remained in negative
territory on Wednesday, after data showed that oil
supplies in the U.S. rose to the highest level on record,
exacerbating fears over a glut in supplies. West Texas
Intermediate crude climbed 1.7 percent after tumbling
5.5 percent on Thursday. A report showed yesterday that
U.S. crude supplies rose to 434.1 million barrels last
week, the highest level in weekly estimates from the
Energy Information Administration beginning in 1982.
TECHNICAL STUDY USING LUTFI MAGNET THEORY (Oil)
TIME
S3
Weekly 42.53
S2
S1
45.97
47.61
MAGNET
POINT
49.41
R1
R2
R3
51.05
52.85
56.29
WEEKLY OVERVIEW OF FOREX, GOLD AND OIL
OIL
WEEKLY
OPEN
50.36
HIGH
51.22
LOW
47.78
CLOSE
49.24
CHANGE
2.22 %
M.Yousuf Chughtai,
Technical Analysis
ISMAR Financial
(yousuf@ismarfinancial.com)
Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by ISMAR financial. The
information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at
based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in
good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and no
guaranty, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. This document is for information
purposes only.For further queries and feedback contact
(yousuf@ismarfinancial.com). For Daily forecast of Forex and
Commodities please visit www.ismarfinancial.com
Feb 23 –27 2015