GSPP 805 Economics for Policy Analysis ECONOMIC REGULATION Background Market failure - The failure of the unregulated economy to achieve allocative efficiency or social goals because of externalities, market impediments, or market imperfections. Question for students: Why just allocative efficiency? What about productive efficiency? Examples of social goals that have been used to justify government intervention: o income distribution (equity, poverty), e.g. minimum wages, unemployment insurance o provision of a minimum level of services (education, health care) o provision of public goods (defence). o stabilization of increasing instability, e.g. temporary wage-price controls. Pareto optimality (maximum allocative economic efficiency) - Given available resources, technology and the distribution of wealth, in a situation of Pareto optimality it is impossible to make one person better off without at least one other being worse off. Requires: o perfect competition o no externalities in production or consumption o all products are divisible. Recall the conditions for perfect competition: o Each market participant is a price-taker (no monopoly power) - large number of buyers and large number of sellers so that no participant buys or sells enough of the good or service that their actions influence the price. o Homogeneous goods. o Perfect information or knowledge. o Freedom of entry and exits to the industry for firms and factor mobility. o No economic friction - no significant transactions costs, e.g. transport, labour mobility. Perfect information for the entire economy includes: o perfect knowledge about products by consumers o perfect knowledge of technology and factors of production by producers o perfect knowledge of employment opportunities by owners of factors of production. Public goods or collective consumption goods - Goods or services that, once produced to provide a benefit to one group in society, can be extended to more consumers at a marginal cost that is negligible or zero or Goods that must be supplied communally since they cannot be withheld from one consumer without withholding them from all (indivisible goods or nonrivalrous non-excludable goods), e.g. traffic lights. Such goods can thus only be provided by government and financed through public expenditure. © Brian Christie, March 2001, October 2006 Quasi-public goods - Goods or services supplied by the state and financed from taxation (or government borrowing) because otherwise the quantity and/or quality of supply provided by the market would be inadequate (e.g., education). Failure of the market to satisfy any of the conditions of perfect competition results in market imperfections and, potentially, allocative inefficiency, providing grounds for government consideration of market intervention. Externalities in consumption exist when the level of consumption of some good or service by one consumer or group of consumers has a direct effect on the welfare of another consumer (other than indirectly through the price mechanism). (Examples?) Externalities in production exist when the level of production of some good or service by one firm has a direct effect on the welfare of another firm or a consumer (other than indirectly through the price mechanism or cost of production). (Examples?) Externalities can be either positive or negative. Whether positive or negative, without some regulatory framework, externalities are not reflected in market prices and, therefore, are not taken into account in the consumption and/or production decisions of market participants. This likely produces allocative inefficiency. No externalities means that all benefits (and disbenefits) of consumption accrue to the buyer/ consumer of a good and all costs of production accrue to the producer. Coase’s Theorem - When property rights are clearly assigned, externalities need not result in allocative inefficiency. Economic Regulation and Deregulation Regulation is the imposition by government of rules and controls that are designed to direct, restrict or change the economic behaviour of individuals and/or businesses and that are supported by penalties for non-compliance. Characteristics of economic regulation: o Does not include regulation of social or moral behaviour (e.g. crime, civil rights, health and safety) - although these activities can have economic consequences. o Affects the choices and decisions of economic agents and thus modifies market results (often limits them): prices, quantity produced or consumed, quality of goods and conditions of production, distribution and marketing (e.g. advertising, labelling, warranties) © Brian Christie, March 2001, October 2006 o Administered by a commission, agency or bureau that interprets statutes from which it derives its authority, establishes or proposes more detailed regulations, may have considerable autonomy. o Rules are supported by penalties or sanctions (fines, loss of licence, imprisonment) o Does not involve the direct provision of a good or service, although a government enterprise may be regulated by another agency (e.g. CBC regulated by CRTC). An alternative to economic regulation may be the provision of a good or service by a government enterprise. Types of regulation: o Price regulation: floors or ceilings. o Licences, charters and quotas: controlled entry to an industry (e.g., tv stations, banks, fishing boats, taxis) May control amount of production or sale or conditions of service, (e.g., location, number of businesses). o Promotion of competition: Business and labour practices - prevent or limit abuse of market power (e.g. anti-collusion, price-fixing, establishment of unions) Anti-trust/ anti-combines regulation. o Standards - e.g., weights and measures, advertising, construction and design, labelling, environmental, workers’ safety. Scope of Regulation Regulation is pervasive in the Canadian economy. In 1979 the Economic Council of Canada estimated that over one quarter of the Canadian economy was subject to direct regulation of prices and production, including the following sectors: transportation, communications, natural resource extraction, agriculture and food, financial markets and institutions, and cultural activities. As well, the following are significantly regulated: business practices, ownership of intellectual property, labour markets, professional practices. Has this scope changed since 1979? Regulators o Government departments - as part of their responsibilities, e.g. environment, consumer and corporate affairs. o Statutory Regulatory Agencies (SRA’s) - crown regulatory agencies have varying degrees of autonomy depending on the legislation, resources provided, practice. aim is to distance regulatory activities from political considerations. appeals available: to courts on points of law (usually process). to cabinet (depending on legislation) on major policies. © Brian Christie, March 2001, October 2006 The Theory of Economic Regulation There is no universal theory of regulation. Various theories fit different situations. 1. Public Interest Theory In this theory, regulation exists to correct market failures or increase societal wealth or welfare. Government acts in the public interest to move markets closer to Pareto optimality or social goals, maximizing welfare and efficiency, reducing harm and misinformation, managing common property to reduce externalities, promoting technological development and product evolution. Examples include: a) Regulation of a natural monopoly allows the realization of the productive efficiency (i.e., the economies of scale) that result from large scale production in some industries while avoiding the deadweight loss that results from monopoly pricing and production. Alternatives: o Government enterprise - raises the risk that the public body will act opportunistically, e.g. produce and price in same manner as a private monopolist. Or manage inefficiently having the ability to pass on the higher costs. o Auction off the monopoly rights and distribute the proceeds to customers or taxpayers. But must address the need for tenure to induce a producer to make the long-lived investments in specialized assets, e.g. power grids. b) Restrictions on the use of common property or user charges to address the negative externalities of production. c) Regulation of quality standards to address problems of asymmetric information. d) Promotion of market stability and economic stability o Stabilization of agricultural markets that are subject to considerable fluctuations in prices and, therefore, producers’ incomes in order to assure stable prices and supplies for consumers. o Wage and price controls to dampen rapid price inflation and the resulting destabilizing expectations, particularly with respect to administered prices (those set by government) where market forces do not operate well. e) Pursuit of social goals - objectives that may move the economy away from Pareto optimality (or from one optimal situation to another) but are viewed collectively as socially desirable, e.g., income redistribution, provision of quasi-public goods that have positive externalities (e.g., education). © Brian Christie, March 2001, October 2006 Income policy - Pareto optimal conditions may include large variations in income distribution, extreme wealth and poverty. Government has a responsibility (moral, electoral, consideration of the externalities of poverty such as crime, health costs, lost productivity, etc.) to ensure all incomes reach minimum acceptable levels. Possible means include: o tax and transfer system o education, training and labour support services (subsidized day care) o agricultural support policies to assist farmers and keep food costs low o minimum wage laws o regulations to promote cross-subsidization of services (e.g., telephone, bus routes) o provision of affordable necessities of life (e.g., public housing) 2. Special Interest Theory According to this analysis, special interest groups use the political process to extract wealth and/or income from other groups. This may involve redistribution of income or wealth or monopolistic profits. Pareto sub-optimal conditions result because of political/bureaucratic considerations or the pursuit of other governmental goals. a) Capture theory - regulatory agencies are captured by those regulated who use them to subvert their purported purposes. Regulatory agencies weaken over time in the face of large, powerful firms or industry associations which have more resources, expertise and knowledge of the industry, lobbyists, supporting interest groups, prospective rewarding career opportunities for bureaucrats, and public and political influence. Regulators, forced to rely on industry for information, find themselves in a reactive mode of operation. The results may include restriction on entry into the industry, reduced competition among firms, reduced research and development and reduced investment in new technology (that lower costs and raise short-term profits), and/or guaranteed rates of return on capital and no penalty for mistakes and/or inefficiency. Evidence of capture theory in operation may include opposition to deregulation by the regulated and/or technological stagnation followed perhaps by bursts of innovation when the pent-up demand for change bursts through. Capture can be offset by actions of well-informed, well-funded consumer groups. (There is theory and research around the costs, benefits and impacts of new information on consumer behaviour - rational ignorance when costs of obtaining information exceeds expected benefits.) Government can give the regulatory agency broader scope so that more resources can be justified and it can receive information from natural competitors of individual industries, e.g., transportation agency regulating rail, trucking, plane and marine shipping industries. b) Cartel theory - industries seek regulation in order to operate legally as a cartel, increasing profits. Regulation is used to limit entry of competitors and enforce compliance in cartel © Brian Christie, March 2001, October 2006 decisions (no free riders). Success in achieving and maintaining such regulation depends on political influence and/or ability to convince government that a natural monopoly exists and therefore regulation produces least cost production. c) Public choice theory - the economic study of non-market decision-making or the application of economics to political science. Derives from observations of the behaviour of regulators. Political parties/elected officials “sell” regulatory benefits to industry and workers (e.g., higher prices, profits, and wages; job security) in return for campaign contributions and votes. Regulation itself is a good with demand and supply functions. Politicians supply regulation in exchange for votes or contributions to campaign funds; industries demand it for the ability to achieve super-normal profits. Consumers also have votes to buy regulation or deregulation. The amount of regulation delivered results from politicians’ efforts to maximize votes and contributions from all sources. The more that prices in a regulated industry rise above the competitive market price, the more it becomes worthwhile for consumers to inform themselves and campaign and vote against the regulatory regime. This model implies that the regulation of monopolistic and competitive industries will command more support than the regulation of oligopolies. Regulation of a monopoly reduces prices and raises the quantity of the product available so that the consumer benefits, even if the regulation still leaves in place some superprofits. The monopolist is satisfied by continuing protection from competition and the resulting high profits. Regulation of a competitive industry (e.g., agriculture) will aim to raise prices (per unit) marginally. Large volume producers who benefit substantially will support the policy. Consumers, whose votes are based on many issues, will be largely indifferent. This theory of voter sensitivity explains why governments prefer “hidden” taxes (cf. the GST), including those created by regulation that raises prices above costs. Subsidy-seekers prefer such approaches as well since they require less (costly) lobbying and lower risk of deregulation. d) The Theory of Bureaucracy - bureaucrats’ actions can be understood in terms of budgetmaximizing. Most of the benefits they seek (monetary and non-monetary, present and future) derive from the size and power of their bureaux (offices). Bureaucrats, therefore, ally themselves with the politicians who oversee bureaux (i.e., the cabinet) and those who have influence with them. All, therefore, have an interest in larger bureaux which offer greater opportunities for vote-buying. 3. Public Finance Theory of Regulation This approach draws from both public interest and special interest theories. Regulation is seen as © Brian Christie, March 2001, October 2006 one of a number of potential policy instruments for subsidy and taxation: for effecting transfers among consumers, workers, owners of factors, and firms. Examples include subsidization of 1) rail passengers and grain movements from general freight revenues or 2) of local telephone service from long distance profits or 3) specialty cable stations from cable subscribers. Regulatory cross-subsidization is more likely to occur in industries providing infrastructure services (e.g., utilities, common carriers) which are difficult or impossible to resell. Crosssubsidies often reflect a political decision that a service should be widely available or that lowcost services are necessary for economic development of the hinterland. Example of the automobile industry: Canadian consumers were/are not allowed to import new cars duty-free while producers can do so. This keeps the Canadian prices of cars high. This arrangement was part of a deal between the government and the manufacturers to expand production in Canada. The Canadian government traded off consumer interests for jobs and the economic impact of auto industry (and votes in populous Ontario and Quebec). Costs and Benefits of Regulation Benefits are often hard to quantify. “What if” questions: benefits to society are usually costs prevented or avoided. Special interest theory brings into question the societal economic benefits. Costs o Direct administrative costs - costs of operating regulatory agencies. 1986 estimate: 2.4% of the federal government’s expenditures. o Compliance costs - costs incurred by industry in complying with regulators: from formfilling to huge capital investments (pollution scrubbers). Paper-burden, legal counsel, consultants, testing, advisors. Increased operating costs lead to higher consumer prices. o Political activity costs - in government negotiations, courts, lobbying and the legal costs of firms. In some industries, business executives have been found to spend up to 1/3 of their time dealing with government and regulatory issues. o Reduced innovation - R&D funds spent defensively on safety. Regulation increases the time to move new technology to market, reduces the return on research expenditures and, therefore, the amount of R&D. Reduced competition reduces the incentive for innovation. o Reduced economic growth (as measured by the GNP) - diversion of financial resources to safety, environmental requirements, etc. reduces funds for productivity-enhancing investment. (But this argument depends on what is included in measures of economic output and social welfare.) o Reduced employment from regulation such as minimum wages and fish stock protection. o Price regulation that employs rate of return approaches can result in over-capitalization and productive inefficiency. o Promotion of monopolistic industry structures - compliance costs may create barriers to © Brian Christie, March 2001, October 2006 entry, reasons for exit for small start-up firms. Leads to the productive and allocative inefficiency of monopolistic industry structures. Surveys suggest that for large firms the primary burdens are lost efficiency, innovation, expansion of business, new product development. Small firms complain mostly about the cost of paper burden and the diversion of the time and energy of owner/managers. In general, most complaints are not about the need for regulation but about the process and costadding inefficiencies. This finding creates a strong argument for cost-benefit analysis of all new regulatory regimes and regulations. (The federal government requires a regulatory impact assessment for all new regulations.) Regulatory Reform Regulatory reform or deregulation includes improvements in regulatory process, deregulation, and privatization of government enterprises. The recent trend to deregulation has arisen out of a questioning of the need for, effectiveness of, and cost of regulation. Arguments were made that regulation was accomplishing little and even creating inefficiency, for example by limiting innovation. Successful deregulation in one country or one industry demonstrates potential benefits and leads to deregulation elsewhere. For example, successful deregulation of California intrastate air transportation (lower fares, increased competition through expanded services) led to US national airline and trucking deregulation and then deregulation of the same industries in Canada. Canadian air deregulation was in part motivated by loss of Canadian passengers to US carriers. (Only later did the airline failures begin.) Deregulation has also been motivated by political philosophies about the role of government. Public interest theory suggests that deregulation would/should occur if original market imperfections disappears e.g., a change in technology eliminates a natural monopoly (telecommunications?). Or if it can be determined that the cost of regulation exceeds the losses that would occur without regulation. Or if the regulatory process is captured by industry or workers so that regulation is no longer in the public interest. Deregulation Deregulation has taken various forms: o elimination of regulatory legislation, agencies and regulations o sunset clauses on new regulations o initiatives to “cut red tape”, streamlining regulatory processes o application of cost-benefit analysis to regulation o privatization of government enterprises, in whole or part. o market-based solutions such as increasing competition through expanded licencing or fostering new technologies, requiring utilities to purchase from or sell to private © Brian Christie, March 2001, October 2006 competitors (e.g. power, telephone). o use of pollution taxes or tradeable emissions permits (application of Coase’s Theorem) o increasing the contestability of markets through tax measures such as more generous capital cost allowances (more rapid write-off of equipment expenses). Regulatory Pricing Policies Regulatory agencies regulate prices (fares, rates) in certain industries, particularly utilities, often those that are “natural” monopolies or oligopolies. The choice of the appropriate pricing policy for regulated industries overlaps the discussion of public pricing policies (user charges) for public goods and services (next lesson). 1. Short-run Marginal Cost Pricing, where possible, is the allocatively efficient pricing policy. In practice, marginal cost pricing may be difficult to apply. Marginal cost pricing may lead to losses in declining-cost natural monopolies, particularly those requiring large capital investments, necessitating government subsidies if the good or service is to be available to consumers. The marginal cost may be difficult to determine, especially if there are joint costs of production of several related products. 2. Long-run Incremental Cost Pricing, while not allocatively efficient, allows capital costs to be covered. 3. Average Cost Pricing assures that firm can operate, but is not allocatively efficient and may reward waste and poor management. 4. Average Incremental Cost Pricing or Fully-Distributed Cost Pricing assigns all costs to some usage or consumption decision. Promotes efficient consumption. 5. Benchmark Pricing employs some established reference price such as the price in an earlier period or in another market. This approach may be used when the regulated firm produces a large number of products, not all of which are price-regulated. For example, the Canadian Patent Medicine Prices Review Board has established the following benchmarks for reviewing whether price increases for patent medicines in Canada are appropriate : If the drug was marketed in Canada before December 1987, then the December 1987 price increased by the change in the Consumer Price Index. If the drug is new, then the therapeutically-adjusted price of the included patent medicine, based on the price per kilogram of the active ingredient(s). If no existing therapeutic class, then the median international price. Otherwise, cost-based pricing. © Brian Christie, March 2001, October 2006 6. Price Discrimination (of the third degree) may be used by the regulator for rationing of a scarce product, to generate increased revenues for the firm to cover fixed costs, to attain greater allocative efficiency (marginal cost equal to marginal revenue), for equity considerations or to increase the extent of and access to services, or for conservation purposes. Examples: o Value of Service Pricing aims to approximate the relative values of the good or service for various classes of consumers, e.g. telephone service is viewed as being of more value to a firm than to a household and therefore commercial rates are set higher than residential rates. (This approach increases the revenue of the firm if, and only if, the elasticity of demand for commercial customers is lower than that of residential customers.) o Inverse Elasticity Pricing or Ramsey Pricing. Economist/mathematician Frank Ramsey developed this approach in 1927 as a means of minimizing the net welfare loss resulting from the application of taxes on goods or services sold to customers with different elasticities of demand. It has been extended to regulatory pricing policy, usually for industries where marginal cost pricing would result in operating losses. Under this approach, the ratio of the price markups, (p-mc)/p, in any two market for the firm’s products should be inversely related to the ratio of the price elasticities of demand. 7. Block Pricing (price discrimination of the second degree), whereby the price of the service declines as successive blocks of the service are purchased, allows coverage of initial service costs and fixed costs while providing an incentive to increased consumption, generating more revenue. Increasing block pricing may be used to encourage conservation or for equity or rationing purposes. 8. Peak-load Pricing, Time of Day Pricing, can be used to shift demand or reduce it when otherwise it might exceed capacity. Reduces congestion or delays or brownouts or capital investment requirements. 9. Cross-subsidization: when a utility produces multiple services or serves multiple markets, prices may be set higher than average cost for some market(s) to finance provision of service at lower prices in some other market(s) for equity or access reasons. 10. Rate of Return Regulation. In addition to, or in place of, regulating prices, the regulator may regulate the overall earnings of the firm to a specified (expected) return on capital. r = [TR - (OC+CD)]/[V - AD] © Brian Christie, March 2001, October 2006 where TR = total revenue OC = operating costs CD = current depreciation V = value of capital assets AD = accumulated depreciation r = allowable rate of return Issues: What are allowable operating costs? Regulators may decide what costs are excessive and what costs (or how much of them) may be included, e.g. advertising, executive salaries and expense accounts. V-AD, the rate base. Are cost overruns on construction allowable? How rapidly can/must equipment be written off? What is the fair rate of return, r? It should be the rate needed to attract capital into the regulated industry - rate on bonds, preferred shares, cost of government borrowing (if bonds are guaranteed). If the regulator sets prices expected to generate the target rate of return, then in the short run the firm benefits from any increase in sales (if price exceeds marginal cost) and from improved management (lower costs). But a long run perspective may induce deliberate inefficiency (poor management, use of old technology) to maximize profits. Over-capitalization: approach rewards excess use of capital compared to other factors of production (the rate base effect or Averch-Johnson effect). This inefficient use of resources increases costs and, therefore, prices. Price Cap System: a variation on rate of return pricing allows firm to set prices within an established band of prices and maximize profit (or political returns if a public enterprise) without detailed oversight. The idea is to encourage productive efficiency. © Brian Christie, March 2001, October 2006