National FSA Training Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis Module 10 Adoption likelihood analysis Objectives Objective of the module is to enable participants to understand: Importance of variability in research domain Factors influencing technology adoption Ways of predicting of predicting maximum rate of adoption Ways to increase maximum rate of adoption Content 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 Introduction Factors influencing technology adoption Dimensions of technology adoption likelihood analysis (the four A's) Estimating potential or maximum adoption rates The mathematical relations of predicting maximum adoption Ways to increase potential adoption rates Key words Adaptability analysis, variability, research domain, technology adoption, maximum rate of adoption, affordability, acceptability, attractiveness, accessibility, flexible recommendations 1 National FSA Training 10.1 Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis Introduction The major concern of Farming Systems Research approaches since its inception into our research programmes has been to ensure encompassing farmers' experiences and environmental circumstances in all research stages. Thus the assessment of circumstances in the target area, farmer management, resource quantities and qualities as well as some policy issues need to be thoroughly analysed. It is therefore important that the FSA envisages incorporating farmers from the very start of the technology development process (i.e. from diagnostics through adoption to evaluation). In this manner, researchers may be able to avoid or minimise the incidence of research results that perform poorly on-farm or the rejection of on-station technologies that might have performed well on-farms but were never released. A research domain, which can be chosen on biophysical, socio-economic or political characteristics, recognises the fact that farmers' circumstances are variable and this should be taken into consideration during the research process (Stroup et al, 1991). For appropriate and sustainable agricultural innovation it is essential that efforts be made to ensure that recommended agricultural technologies will be adopted by the intended farmer categories within the recommendation domains. The eventual adoption of the recommended technologies should be the constant concern of the research in all its various phases. Adoption likelihood analysis is a strong tool used before and during the trial process to foster maximum likelihood of recommended technologies to be adopted. 10.2 Factors influencing technology adoption Agricultural technologies are location specific and react to environmental changes. The characteristics if the intended user group, economic supports system and political or administrative conditions surrounding the target area influence the scaling up of a technology. This calls for a need to draw attention and assess these factors for better understanding of the likelihood of intended technologies to be adopted and scaled up. Development of user-oriented technology has to be well targeted to farming system zones and socio-economic categories. Also the economic support systems and politico-administrative conditions for widespread adoption have to be indicated. Therefore, when technologies are planned and tested, priorities must be set based on potential benefits and risks for different groups of farmers and the ease with which farmers may be able to adopt them. The next sections present some of the major factors that may influence adoption of technologies. These factors are grouped in four sections: farmer characteristics (see also Module 4), farm resources, compatibility with farming system and the political-economic environment. (a) Characteristics of farmers Wealth: Farmers with more resources (land, labour, capital) generally take advantage of a new technology. Wealthier farmers have better access to extension information and financial resources (own funds or credit) and can afford to take some risks. Age: A farmer's age may influence adoption in one of several ways. Older farmers may have more experience, resources, or authority that would allow them more possibilities for trying a new technology. On the other hand, it may be that younger farmers are more likely to adopt a new technology, because they have had more schooling than the older generation or perhaps they have been exposed to new ideas elsewhere. Gender: Women often have a specific role within the farmer household. They have certain tasks, grow specific groups and/or have well defined roles in livestock keeping. Because women play a key role in most agricultural systems, it is important that adoption studies consider the degree to which a new technology reaches and affects women farmers (see also Module 4 and Module 7). 2 National FSA Training Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis Education: Many adoptions studies show a relationship between technology adoption and the educational level of the farmer. The more complex the technology, the more likely it is that education will play a role. Ethnic, religious and community factors: In many cases a technology is introduced to an area that includes farmers of different customs and traditions. These differences may be most notable between communities or between members of several groups living in the same community. Adoption patterns may differ among these groups. Production goals: The introduction of new crop varieties to resource-poor farmers requires an understanding of their food consumption patterns and marketing behaviour, which is largely related to the socio-economic position of a household. Farmers’ major production goals can be early harvesting (to overcome food shortage period), storage (food security) and marketing (to get cash income). These goals can strongly determine the adoption of technologies. If farmers market a considerable proportion of their harvest, then the characteristics for market acceptability should be identified. (b) Farm resources Farm size: Farm size is a common variable examined in adoption studies and is often a good proxy for wealth. It's often assumed that larger-scale farmers will be more likely to adopt a technology, especially if the innovation requires an extra cash investment. On the other hand, certain technologies are more appropriate for the intensive management characteristics of smaller farms (or at least of farms with a higher ratio of labour to land). Farm size may also be related to access to credit facilities, which may facilitate adoption. Labour: Technologies have different labour characteristics; some save labour, while others significantly increase it. In planning adoption studies researchers need to pay sufficient attention to labour-related issues: changes in labour requirements, timing of activities and peak periods during the year, labour availability within the household, off farm employment, availability of hired labour. Equipment and machinery: If a technology involves equipment or machinery, the degree of adoption may depend on the farmers who have it or are able to acquire it. Land tenure: Land tenure can also affect farmers' ability to adopt innovations. An adoption study should find out whether the recommendation is suited for farmers without secure access to land. In many cases, renters or sharecroppers will be less interested in technologies that have long-term effects, such as soil fertility maintenance, because they do not have any guarantee to use the land in the future. Sometimes tenants do not have a free choice of crops and varieties. For instance, they may be obliged to plant varieties that provide crop residues for the landowner's animals. (c) Compatibility with farming system Technologies must be compatible with the farming system at large, if they are to find acceptance. Often a technology as such appears to make sense on its own, but is still rejected, not because of any intrinsic disqualification, but because it cannot be incorporated in the farming system. Reasons for non-compatibility can be: Labour: it is important to know if the labour demand of a new technology coincides with a particular busy time of the year or could take advantage of a period when labour is available. It's important to remember that the labour profile for a certain farming system is determined not only by operations on the target crop but also by demands from various other activities of farmer households. Other crops: intercropping and relay cropping are common practices in many farming systems. New varieties or practices for one crop may thus have to be compatible with the presence and management of other crops. Agriculture and livestock interaction: Crop production can be important for animal production and vice versa. New crop management techniques may have an effect on the production of by-products destined for animals. The use of damaged or spoiled grains or tubers for animal feed may diminish farmers' interest in certain crop protection technologies. 3 National FSA Training Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis Biological circumstances: the weeds, diseases, and insect pests prevalent in the area or in specific fields may affect the adoption of technology. New varieties for example may be more or less susceptible to diseases or insect pests, and certain management practices (such as planting time) may reflect farmers' attempts to avoid these problems. Soils: Land quality and soil type may be important factors influencing the acceptance of a new technology. Selection of sites for on-farm experiments should take into account variations in soil type or land type. Not only may management practices differ by type of soil, but other conditions, such as slope or moisture retention capacity, are often important as well. Rainfall patterns: These can limit the crops that can be grown and also regulate planting and harvesting schedules. The possibility of drought or flooding or seasonal temperature changes can make farmers reluctant and wary about investing in some technologies. (d) Political-economic environment Information and training: For farmers to adopt a technology they must first know about it. The information may come from many sources e.g. the extension services, researchers, other farmers, policy makers, radio, television, newspapers or magazines, extension bulletins, field days/tours, farmers exchange visits, agricultural shows etc. Credit: This is also a very important factor in determining adoption. If a recommendation implies a significant investment for farmers, a credit program may facilitate adoption. If the majority of adopters use credit to acquire the technology, then there is a strong indication of credit's role in diffusing the technology. Similarly, farmers who do not adopt may complain of a lack of cash or credit as the principal factor limiting their adoption. Supply system: If a recommendation/technology involves the use of purchased inputs, adoption may be limited because effective supply systems and maintenance services are not in place or farmers do not have information on prices, selling points, available stock, the reliability of the retailer and the quality of the input. Marketing: If markets are inefficient, there is hardly any incentive to invest in improved technology. Seasonal variation in market prices may also affect the acceptability of technologies that change the timing of harvest (e.g. a technique that allows earlier planting). 4 National FSA Training 10.3 Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis Dimensions of technology adoption likelihood analysis (the four A's) To assess whether a technology, once developed, may likely be adopted, one needs to collect data in different domains or dimensions. According to Mafuru and Van de Meerendonk (1999), both adoption likelihood analysis (ex-ante) and adoption analysis (ex-post) have to cover the socalled 4 A's: Acceptability Affordability Accessibility Attractiveness. Acceptability This refers to the technical characteristics of the recommended technology i.e. does the recommended technology technically delivers what it promised during the trial. Several issues or questions should be considered before embarking on technology development. For example, does the technology likely to deliver what is intended? Is the proposed variety likely to be superior to the existing ones? In other words, how does the innovation expected to perform compared to the existing alternatives. Is only when there is an indication of possible profits to the end user that the target groups are likely to adopt the technology proposed for innovation? At later stages, the achievement of this can be assessed using the Rapid Technology Assessment tool (See Module 18 - Adoption and Impact Assessment of Agricultural Technologies). Affordability This refers to the economic characteristics of the recommended technology i.e. can the intended target group within the recommendation domains afford the costs involved in acquiring and maintaining the recommended technology. Is the investment required not prohibitive? Are recurrent costs not required at the farmers' liquidity problem? For example, is the intended recommended wheelbarrow in practise not too expensive and does it require too many repairs? Or does the recommended rice variety in practise require investments from the farmers at the moment that the household has no money to spend? During the adoption stage, this can be assessed using the Household Income and Expenditure analysis tool. Accessibility This refers to the local availability of the recommended technology i.e. can the target group within the recommendation domains avail of the technology. For example, is their sufficient local supplying of the recommended wheelbarrows and can local craftsmen do repairs (sufficient availability of spare parts)? Is the planting material as well as other inputs for the recommended rice variety sufficiently locally available at the moment that the farmer needs it? Does the farmers have the information and knowledge on how to apply the new technology? Attractiveness This refers to the economic competitive position of the recommended technology visa versa the practised technology, i.e. does the farmers get substantial extra revenue if he/she decides to innovate. Farmers who are asked to innovate are considering the marginal rate of return of the innovation. In case they cannot compare with an existing practised technology directly, the farmers will calculate acceptable minimum rates of return using the expected output of the new technologies. Partial budget analysis is used to measure the attainment of this consideration at the adoption stage. 5 National FSA Training 10.4 Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis Estimating potential or maximum adoption rates The likelihood that farmers will adopt a technology depends on how well the technology is adapted to the local conditions. These local conditions can be classified into three categories: (a) production environment (i.e. the biophysical conditions) (b) farmer categories of the recommendation domain and (c) production goals of the farmers. Production environment This includes all factors, which directly determine crop and livestock production, such as soil types and soil fertility, pests and diseases, and also management practices. Together, they compose the production environment of the crop. Production Environment I Technology Production Environment II The number of production environments depends on the level of aggregation (or: level of analysis). Considering a large area like say the whole country, a tremendous number of production environments of a certain crop can be distinguished. Within one agro-ecological zone, the number of production environments is often limited to, say, less than five. New technologies have to fit these production environments if a good rate of adoption is anticipated. Farmer category Target groups can further be sub-divided into groups or categories depending on criteria that are decisive for their socio-economic position and utilisation of the technology output (see Module 4). Production goal Production goals of farmers determine to a large extent their technology choice. They form an indirect influence on crop production. Production goals depend on the socio-economic context in which the farmers operate, and on their individual ideas and interests. This context includes farmers’ access to the means of production, family consumption, and cash demands, gender, age and other farmer characteristics and relationships between farmers. These factors influence production goals directly. Production Goal I Technology Production Goal II Production Goal III Interactions Producer categories and production environments are interrelated. One category of farmers may ‘occupy’ a favourable production environment because of the history of human settlement and the inheritance rules. Another category, e.g. households that recently settled in the village, may have access to less favourable production environments. Resource-rich households may adjust an unfavourable production environment into a favourable one by management practices and application of inputs. Adoption of technologies depends therefore not only on the number of production environments or farmer categories, but also on the systematic combination between the two. 6 National FSA Training Technology 10.5 Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis Marketing Resource rich farmers (20%) Food security Resource poor farmers (50%) Early harvest Female farmers (30%) The mathematical relations of predicting maximum adoption In this section we attempt to show that it is possible to calculate the maximum adoption rate of a technology before any action is undertaken to test or diffuse it. This priority estimation needs a good understanding of the farmer population and the production environments for which the technology is meant to be. Calculation of the maximum adoption rate facilitates priority setting of research and extension. It reveals that, in many cases, one-dimensional or blanket recommendations have low maximum adoption rates, and that flexible recommendations are needed to obtain more satisfactory rates of adoption. (a) One-dimensional functions Function 1: Technology adoption is a function of the production environments in the target zone in which the technology is applicable. MAR = Ef(1,n) MAR = Maximum Adoption Rate (%) Ef(1,n) = Frequency of production environments Example: If there are three production environments for maize with an importance of 20 (A), 30 (B) and 40% (C) in a target zone, the maximum adoption rate for a B-environment-specific variety is 30%. Production Environment A (20%) Technology Production Environment B (30%) Production Environment C (40%) MAR = E (b environment) = 30% Example: Within one agro-ecological zone there are two distinctly different, production environments for maize (homesteads and annual crop fields). A survey revealed that 60% of all farmers in the zone grow maize in their homesteads and 40% in their annual crop fields. A blanket recommendation for fertiliser application, derived from monocropped maize trials in annual crop fields will therefore have a maximum adoption rate of 40%. Production at homesteads (60%) Fertiliser in maize Production in annual crop fields (40%) 7 National FSA Training Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis MAR = E (annual crop fields) = 40% Function 2: Technology adoption is a function of farmer categories that produce a specific crop in the target zone. MAR = Cf(1,n) MAR = Maximum Adoption Rate (%) Cf(1,n) = Frequency of farmer categories Example: If there are two farmer categories (A and B) with a frequency of 30% and 70% respectively, the maximum adoption rate for a category A-specific variety is 30%. Farmer category A (30%) Technology Farmer category B (70%) MAR = C (category A) = 30% Example: Within one agro-ecological zone three farmer categories can be defined. All three categories grow maize, but for specific purposes. Resource-rich farmers (20%) produce for marketing (long maturing) , resource-poor farmers (50%) have the goal of food security (long maturity as well) and female farmers (30%) wish to have an early harvest to fill the gap before other crops mature. A blanket recommendation of a long cycle variety that fits both resource rich and resource poor for marketing and food security respectively has therefore a maximum adoption rate of 70%. Technology Marketing Resource rich farmers (20%) Food security Resource poor farmers (50%) Early harvest Female farmers (30%) MAR = C (resource rich) + C (category A) = 20% + 50% Function 3: Technology adoption is a function of production goals of farmers related to a specific group in the target zone. MAR = Gf(1,n) MAR = Maximum Adoption Rate (%) Gf(1,n) = Frequency of production goals 8 National FSA Training Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis Example: If there are two equally (i.e. 50% each) important production goals of farmers, the maximum adoption rate of a goal-specific variety is 50%. Goal category A (50%) Maize variety Goal category B (50%) MAR = C (category A) = 30% (b) Two-dimensional functions Function 4: Technology adoption is a function of the relation between farmer categories and production goals. MAR = Cf(1,n) x Gf(1,n) /100 MAR = Maximum Adoption Rate (%) Cf(1,n) = Frequency of farmer categories Gf(1,n) = Frequency of production goals Example: There are two farmer categories with three production goals: Technology X is applicable for production goals 1 and 2 Category A = 30% Category B = 70% G1 = 20% G2 = 80% G3 = 0% G1 = 60% G2 = 0% CAG rate = (20x30) + (80x30) / 100 = 30% CBG rate = 42% Total MAR = 30 + 42 = 72% (overall) G3 = 40 A technology which is applicable for two goals will have a maximum adoption rate of 30% by category A farmers and 42% by category B farmers. This accumulates to a total maximum adoption rate of 72%. Function 5: Technology adoption is a function of the relation between farmer categories and production environments. MAR = Cf(1,n) x Ef(1,n) /100 MAR = Maximum Adoption Rate (%) Cf(1,n) = Frequency of farmer categories Ef(1,n) = Frequency of production environments Example: There are two farmer categories with two production environments: Technology X is applicable for production environment 2 Category A = 30% Category B = 70% E1 = 90% E2 = 10% E1 = 30% CAE rate = (10x30) / 100 = 3% CBE rate = 49% Total MAR = 3 + 49 = 52% E2 = 70% A technology which is applicable for production environment 2 only will have a maximum adoption rate of 3% by category A farmers and 49% by category B farmers. This accumulates to a total maximum adoption rate of 52%. 9 National FSA Training Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis (c) Three-dimensional function Function 6: Technology adoption is a function of the relation between farmer categories, production goals and production environments. MAR = Cf(1,n) x Gf(1,n) x Ef(1,n) /10 000 MAR = Maximum Adoption Rate (100) Cf(1,n) = Frequency of farmer categories (%) Gf(1,n) = Frequency of production goals (%) Ef(1,n) = frequency of production environments (%) Example: There are two categories of farmers with three production goals and three production environments: Category A = 30% G1 = 20% G2 = 70% E1 = 70% E2 = 0% G3 = 10% E3 = 30% Category B = 70% G1 = 60% G2 = 0% E1 = 10% E2 = 50% G3 = 40% E3 = 40% CAG1E1 rate = (30 x 20 x 70) /10000 = 12.6% CAG1E2 rate = (30 x 20 x 0) /10000 = 0.0% CAG1E3 rate = (30 x 20 x 30) /10000 = 1.8 CBG1E1 rate = (70 x 60 x 10) /10000 = 4.2% CBG1E2 rate = (70 x 60 x 50) /10000 = 21.0% CBG1E3 rate = (70 x 60 x 40) /10000 = 7.1% CAG2E1 rate = (30 x 70 x 70) = 14.7% CAG2E2 rate = (30 x 70 x 0) / 10000 = 0.0% CAG2E3 rate = (30 x 70 x 30) /10000 – 6.3% CBG2E1 rate = (70 x 0 x 10) /10000 = 0.0% CBG2E2 rate = (70 x 0 x 50) /0000 = 0.0% CBG2E3 rate = (70 x 0 x 40) /10000 = 0.0% CAG3E1 rate = (30 x 10 x 70) /10000 = 2.1% CBG3E1 rate = (70 x 40 x 10) /10000 = 2.8% CAG3E2 rate = (30 x 10 x 0) /10000 = 0.0% CBG3E2 rate = (70 x 40 x 50) /10000 = 14.0% CAG3E3 rate + (30 x 10 x 30) /10000 = 0.9% CBG3E3 rate = (70 x 40 x 40) /10000 = 11.2% If the technology is applicable for production goals 1 and 2 and for production environments 1 and 2, then MAR = 52.2% (12.6 + 14.7 + 4.2 + 21.0) If the technology is applicable for production goal 2 and production environment 1, then MAR = 14.7%. If the technology is applicable for production goals 2 and 3 and production environment 3 then MAR = 18.4% (6.3 + 0.9 + 11.2). Summary on how to calculate Maximum Adoption Rate The following procedure allows you to calculate the Maximum Adoption Rate of the technology you intend to test: 1. Define the adoption rate you wish to realise. 2. Define your target zone. 3. Define the number of production environments in which your target crop is grown in your target zone. Estimate their frequencies. 4. Define the production goals of your target crop 5. Define the farmer categories that produce your target crop and estimate their relative importance. 6. Relate production goals to farmer categories 7. Relate production environments to farmer categories 8. Calculate your Maximum Adoption Rate. Calculation of the Maximum Adoption Rate depends to a large extend on the available information you have. It stands to reason that equation six estimates the MAR best. You can adapt the above procedure to the information you dispose of and choose the corresponding equation (1 – 6). 10 National FSA Training 10.6 Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis Ways to increase potential adoption rates In situations of systematic interactions between production environments, goals and farmer categories, one-dimensional technologies, or blanket recommendations, have low Maximum Adoption Rates. To increase the Maximum Adoption Rates flexible recommendations are needed. Flexible recommendations combine one-dimensional technologies. The Maximum Adoption Rate of a flexible recommendation is the cumulation of the Maximum Adoption Rates of the one-dimensional technologies. Example: Variety A has a MAR of 23%, variety B has a MAR of 34% and variety C has a MAR 29%. The MAR of a flexible recommendation, combining the three varieties, is 86%. Flexible recommendations present one-dimensional technologies in such a way that farmers can make their choice. In fact, the last step in the selection of technology is left to the farmer. He or she only needs to be provided with the right information. This can be achieved by presenting the ‘profiles’ of each technology (descriptions of what a farmer can expect from each technology), or by presenting ‘if ………… then ………….’ selection advise. Table 10.x Maize variety profiles Variety/Characteristics Length of cycle (days) Resistance to streak virus Resistance to Yield on poor soils Yield on fertile soils Suitability for roasting Suitability for ugali Suitability for marketing Table 10.x KITO 90 very low very low low medium very good medium not good TMV-1 100 very good medium low medium good good medium STAHA 110 good medium low medium medium very good medium KILIMA 120 low high high high not good very good good UCA 140 low medium very high not good very good good good Maize variety selection advice If you …………. have a field with poor soil fertility have a field with good soil fertility have no time for early weeding then sow …. Kilima Kilima, STAHA or UCA TMV-1, Kilima, UCA, STAHA need an early, average maize harvest TMV-1 want to produce early maize for roasting Kito or TMV-1 want to produce maize for the market Kilima or UCA want to intercrop in annual fields Kilima , TMV-1 or STAHA want to plant maize in homegarden Kilima or UCA But don't sow …. Kito, TMV-1 or STAHA Kito or TMV-1 Kito Kilima or UCA Kilima or UCA Kito Kito Kito Maximum Adoption Rates, as calculated above, allow a scientist or extensionist to predict the potential success of a technology introduction. It is a tool which can be used for improving research and extension efficiency. It can also be used to assess the achieved adoption rate compared to the expected one. Because of the inherent linear nature of the calculation it should not be used beyond the scope of priority setting and adoption assessment. Importance of calculation of Maximum Adoption Rates Calculations of MAR before the research is fully undertaken are useful for the following purposes: low potential technologies can be identified and eliminated; good potential technologies can be selected and targeted; expectations of future adoption become more realistic; 11 National FSA Training Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis adoption evaluations have a better reference of what was expected at introduction. Most scientists and extension staff do not have any idea of the potential adoption of the technology they wish to diffuse. Basic information about production environments, goals and farmer categories is often lacking. It is, however, strongly recommendable that any commodity scientist or extension staff disposes of this basic information. One-dimensional technologies often have a low Maximum Adoption Rate. On the contrary, flexible recommendations have much higher adoption rates. The final step in the selection of appropriate technologies is left to the farmer. By increasing farmers’ choice research and extension will become more effective. If adoption rates are criteria for efficiency of research and extension then flexible recommendations will not only benefit the farmers, but will also satisfy donors and hence guarantee funding of research and extension. 12 National FSA Training Module 10:Adoption likelihood analysis References Hildebrand P.E. and J.T. Russell (1996). Adoptability analysis. A method for the design, analysis and interpretation of on-farm research-extension. Iowa State University Press/Ames. Stroup W.W., P.E. Hildebrand, C.A. Francis (1991). Farmer participation for more effective research insustainable agriculture. Staff paper series SP91-2, September 1991. Food and Resource economics department. Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. University of Florida. Gainesville, Florida 32611. Madulu R. (1998). On-farm introduction of maize streak virus disease tolerant varieties in Sukumaland. Progress report presented during IPR 1998, Lake Zone. 13