COPAL COCOA Info
A Weekly Newsletter of Cocoa Producers' Alliance
9th - 13th April 2012
Cocoa Producers' Alliance
In-House Cocoa Newsletter
Issue No. 487
UP-COMING EVENTS
IN THIS ISSUE
o Meeting of the International Organizing Committee for the

ICCO INSIDE
DAILY COCOA
THISPRICES
ISSE:
17th International Cocoa Research Conference, (ICRC)
Yaounde, Cameroon, 24th April to 3rd May 2012.

LONDON (LIFFE) FUTURES MARKET
UPDATE

NEW YORK (ICE) FUTURES MARKET
UPDATE

FROM THE NEWS MEDIA
Do your health a favour, drink Cocoa everyday
‘It’s nature’s miracle food’
In the News (from Newspapers worldwide)
Health and Nutrition

Business & Economy

Production and Quality
 Nigeria to become largest producer of cocoa in 10years
 All-out effort to check drastic drop in cocoa
Labour Issues

The Market
 Uganda’s cocoa prices up amid dwindling supplies
 Cocoa shortage to push up chocolate price
 NY cocoa settles firm, sugar ends at 3-month low
Processing and Manufacturing
 Views diverge before Europe, US cocoa grind data
 Europe's Sweet Tooth Buoys Cocoa

Environmental Issue

Research & Development

Promotion & Consumption

Others
 Caterpiller attack hits south Cameroon cocoa
ICCO Daily Cocoa Prices
ICCO Daily Price
(SDR/tonne)
ICCO Daily price
($US/tonne)
London futures
(£/tonne)
New York futures
($US/tonne)
9th April
1416.91
2179.9
1407.00
2125.00
10th April
1387.42
2133.17
1388.00
2070.67
11th April
1397.39
2155.3
1390.00
2104.67
12th April
1430.08
2205.78
1419.33
2152.33
13th April
1462.72
2256.98
1458.67
2204.67
Average
1419.00
2186.00
1413.00
2131.00
COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,
P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
Email: econs@copal-cpa.org
Website: www.copal-cpa.org
2
International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE)
London Futures Market – Summary of Trading Activities
(£ per tone)
Monday
9th April
Month
May 2012
Jul 2012
Sep 2012
Dec 2012
Mar 2013
May 2013
Jul 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Dec 2014
Average/Totals
Tuesday
Opening Trans
Wednesday
Month
May 2012
Jul 2012
Sep 2012
Dec 2012
Mar 2013
May 2013
Jul 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Mar 2014
Average/Totals
Settle
Change
High
Low
#DIV/0!
10th April
Month
May 2012
Jul 2012
Sep 2012
Dec 2012
Mar 2013
May 2013
Jul 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Mar 2014
Average/Totals
2012
Opening Trans
1416
1422
1426
1437
1418
1425
1410
1440
1440
11th April
Opening Trans
1373
1384
1392
1401
1394
1408
1407
1415
1430
Volume
0
2012
Settle
1378
1389
1397
1406
1398
1408
1409
1415
1429
1446
1408
Change
-43
-37
-34
-30
-27
-23
-25
-21
-10
-10
High
1422S
1427S
1432
1438S
1430
1430
1410S
Low
1375S
1383S
1391
1400S
1393
1402
1409S
1440
1442
1432
1440
Change
3
1
2
2
-1
-4
-1
-2
-4
-6
High
1397
1404
1413S
1420S
1411
1418S
1412
1415
1435
Low
1366
1375S
1385S
1395S
1388S
1397S
1407
1415
1430
Volume
6,612
6,309
2,749
1,938
1,648
430
9
0
12
105
19,812
2012
Settle
1381
1390
1399
1408
1397
1404
1408
1413
1425
1440
1409
COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,
P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
Email: econs@copal-cpa.org
Website: www.copal-cpa.org
Volume
4,318
6,133
1,284
1,831
1,433
609
28
2
13
0
15,651
3
Thursday
12th April
Month
May 2012
Jul 2012
Sep 2012
Dec 2012
Mar 2013
May 2013
Jul 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Mar 2014
Average/Totals
Friday
Opening Trans
1370
1382
1394
1405
1392
1395
1405
1411
1423
13th April
Month
May 2012
Jul 2012
Sep 2012
Dec 2012
Mar 2013
May 2013
Jul 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Mar 2014
Average/Totals
Opening Trans
1415
1421
1429
1450
1431
1448
1480
Average for the week
2012
Settle
1412
1418
1428
1436
1428
1437
1444
1449
1458
1476
1439
Change
31
28
29
28
31
33
36
36
33
36
High
1414S
1420S
1429
1437S
1429S
1435S
1407
1412
1423
Low
1360S
1367S
1377S
1386S
1380
1389S
1400
1401S
1413S
Volume
6,814
9,016
2,800
1,492
1,438
727
105
79
24
0
22,495
Change
40
40
38
39
36
34
34
33
33
33
High
1460S
1467S
1475S
1483
1468S
1475S
1480S
Low
1413S
1419
1429S
1440S
1431S
1448S
1480S
Volume
3,787
6,092
2,047
2,361
559
110
3
0
0
0
14,959
2012
Settle
1452
1458
1466
1475
1464
1471
1478
1482
1491
1509
1475
1475
COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,
P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
Email: econs@copal-cpa.org
Website: www.copal-cpa.org
2720
2720
4
New York Board of Trade
(New York Futures Market – Summary of Trading Activities)
(US$ per tone)
Monday
9th April
Month
May 2012
Jul 2012
Sep 2012
Dec 2012
Mar 2013
May 2013
Jul 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Mar 2014
Open
2095
2108
2132
2151
2166
2154
0
2197
0
0
Average/Totals
Tuesday
Wednesday
Month
May 2012
Jul 2012
Sep 2012
Dec 2012
Mar 2013
May 2013
Jul 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Mar 2014
Average/Totals
Price
2108
2118
2136
2154
2170
2183
2195
2204
2217
2240
Change
23
10
8
7
7
8
8
8
9
5
High
2118
2127
2141
2159
2175
2188
0
2197
0
0
Low
2068
2082
2102
2122
2141
2150
0
2197
0
0
2173
10th April
Month
May 2012
Jul 2012
Sep 2012
Dec 2012
Mar 2013
May 2013
Jul 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Mar 2014
Average/Totals
2012
Open
2115
2125
2136
2142
2170
2160
2150
2155
2165
0
11th April
Open
2067
2060
2083
2090
2111
2125
2136
2155
2163
0
Volume
18,336
17,547
1,230
412
409
267
0
6
5
5
38217
2012
Price
2064
2070
2085
2102
2119
2133
2146
2155
2168
2191
2123
Change
-44
-48
-51
-52
-51
-50
-49
-49
-49
-49
High
2127
2133
2142
2157
2175
2160
2150
2155
2165
0
Low
2052
2058
2076
2092
2110
2123
2147
2155
2165
0
Volume
22,501
23,739
4,002
2,040
1,027
980
75
7
212
5
54588
Change
39
34
32
31
30
27
25
23
20
18
High
2126
2128
2133
2152
2168
2177
2158
2155
2163
0
Low
2052
2056
2072
2089
2108
2120
2132
2142
2152
0
Volume
17,497
20,347
2,365
1,366
1,411
457
107
31
54
0
43635
2012
Price
2103
2104
2117
2133
2149
2160
2171
2178
2188
2209
2151
COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,
P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
Email: econs@copal-cpa.org
Website: www.copal-cpa.org
5
Thursday
12th April
Month
May 2012
Jul 2012
Sep 2012
Dec 2012
Mar 2013
May 2013
Jul 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Mar 2014
Average/Totals
Friday
Open
2116
2111
2117
2137
2128
2130
2204
2155
2173
0
13th April
Month
May 2012
Jul 2012
Sep 2012
Dec 2012
Mar 2013
May 2013
Jul 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Mar 2014
Average/Totals
Average for the week
Open
2160
2143
2165
2183
2220
2250
2270
2278
2289
0
2012
Price
2160
2143
2162
2179
2192
2207
2220
2230
2243
2266
2200
Change
57
39
45
46
43
47
49
52
55
57
High
2167
2154
2171
2188
2202
2211
2204
2157
2173
0
Low
2061
2060
2077
2096
2113
2129
2204
2155
2173
0
Volume
12,865
22,683
5,547
1,365
784
657
5
21
21
0
43948
Change
88
57
52
54
56
54
52
52
52
52
High
2259
2217
2230
2248
2262
2268
2270
2278
2289
0
Low
2160
2143
2162
2183
2205
2250
2270
2278
2289
0
Volume
13,706
25,261
4,145
1,520
499
115
1
1
6
0
45254
2012
Price
2248
2200
2214
2233
2248
2261
2272
2282
2295
2318
2257
2257
COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,
P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
Email: econs@copal-cpa.org
Website: www.copal-cpa.org
8228
8228
6
News
NEWS
Health and Nutrition
Production & Quality
Nigeria to become largest producer of cocoa in 10-years
BusinessDay
By SIAKA MOMOH
13 April 2012
E-mail Print PDF
The Executive Director, Conservation Alliance (CA), Ghana, Yaw OseiOwusu, has predicted that in the next 10 years, Nigeria would be the largest
producer of cocoa in the world, with the right incentives in place.
Osei-Owusu, an Agric expert made this revelation in Abuja at a one-day
workshop on ‘Greening the Cocoa Industry’, organised by Global
Environment Facility (GEF) and Rainforest Alliance.
According to Owusu, Cocoa for five consecutive years, has led the pack of
non-oil exports in Nigeria, according to figures released by the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC).
This is coming at a time when analysts predict that the non-oil sector will drive Nigeria’s economic growth in
2012, with GDP expected to grow at 8.1 per cent.
According to NEPC, cocoa products yield was about $215.2 million in 2006 as against $229.6 million for sheep
goat skin and leather. Sesame seeds and oil recorded $32.3 million, rubber $62.7 million, plastics $17.6 million,
Cotton/yams/fabrics &49.9 million.
In 2007, cocoa accounted for $312.6 million as against $300.5 million for sheep, goat skin and leather; $71.6
million for sesame seeds and oil; $79.7 million for rubber; $73.1 million for plastics; $45.5 million for cotton,
yams and fabrics;$47 million for aluminium and article; $75.9 million for cashew nuts and edible fruits; $36.1
million for Gum Arabic; and $46.7 million for pawns, fish and crustaceans.
The figures for 2008 have cocoa recording $487.8 million as against $333.6 million for sheep, goat skin and
leather; $105.2 million for sesame seeds and oil;$129 million for rubber; $100.6 million for plastics; $60.7
million for cotton, yamso and fabrics; $64 million for aluminium and article; $55.4 million for cashew nuts and
edible fruits; $37.1 million for Gum Arabic; and $47.9 million for prawns, fish and crustaceans.
And in 2009, the trend continued with cocoa recording $662..2 million while sheep, goat skin, and leather
accounted for $289.4 million; sesame seeds and oil $115.2 million; rubber $62.5 million. In 2010 cocoa
accounted for $822.8 as against $188.8 million for sesame seeds and oil. In fact cocoa led with $533.3 million in
the first half of 2011.
Nigeria is currently the fourth largest producer of cocoa in the world producing 7 per cent of world output of
4.025 million metric tonnes, coming after Cote D’ Ivoire, Ghana, and Indonesia which produce 36 per cent, 19
per cent and 14 per cent respectively.
West Africa, which supplies approximately 70 per cent of global output, is easily the most important cocoa
production region in the world in terms of economics. The most important individual countries are the Ivory
COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,
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7
Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon. Among non-African countries producing significant amounts of cocoa are
Indonesia, Brazil, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic and Malaysia.
Backing his declaration, he noted that once the right motion is set and fully put in place, the sky would be the
limit of the country in cocoa production.
He gave the incentives as training and re-training of farmers, provision of incentive to boost production, support
from both private and public, getting the right policies from the government, as well as the provision of land and
encourage more people to go into cocoa farming.
All-out effort to check drastic drop in cocoa
Daily Express
April 15, 2012
Penampang: Cocoa production in the country has fallen drastically, prompting the Government to spend more
money and open up more land in an all-out effort to address the decline.
Since 2000, cocoa areas in the country have started to drop due to competition for space with other commodity
crops, particularly oil palm and last year it totalled 20,543 acres with a production of 4,605 tonnes, down almost
70 per cent from 15,654 tonnes in 2010.
Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister, Tan Sri Bernard Dompok, said his ministry has therefore
launched the National Commodities Industries Policy for the period 2011-2020, among others, to see the cocoa
industry continue to grow. "For the cocoa industry, the policy has set a target to add 2,000 hectares each year so
that the total area of cocoa cultivation can be increased from 20,543 hectares in 2011 to 40,000 hectares by
2020," he said.
He said his ministry, through the Malaysian Cocoa Board, has always tried to help farmers increase their income
by cultivating cocoa in small spaces around the house or cocoa processing courses such as courses in chocolate
and cocoa-based beverages.
"I was told that in Penampang at this time, there were 67 cocoa farmers in Kg Putaton, Kg Timpangoh, Kg
Kibunut, Kg Terian and Kg Babagon cultivating a total area 68 hectares.
"I believe that the farmers here still have the land for cocoa that can be operated in integration with other crops.
"As the price of cocoa beans are in the range of RM6,500 to RM8,000 per tonne, cocoa farmers who adopt good
agricultural practices to produce quality cocoa beans can earn a profitable and lucrative income.
"As such, it is my hope that more cocoa farmers in Penampang will carry out cocoa planting either on a small
scale or commercial plantation.
This measure is also expected to help increase the supply of cocoa beans to local cocoa factories which require
about 300,000 tonnes per year while Malaysia only produced 4,605 tonnes of cocoa beans in 2011. "In this
regard, Malaysia has to import a total of 295,000 tonnes of cocoa beans from other producing countries,
particularly Indonesia, Ivory Coast and Ghana." He said this at the Penampang Cocoa Planting Roadshow at Kg
Putaton, Penampang Multipurpose Hall on Saturday.
Dompok said this year, the Government has also approved an allocation of RM17.85 million to the Malaysian
Cocoa Board under New Cocoa Planting Programme, to develop 1,567 hectares of new cocoa cultivation areas
in Malaysia. "Of the 1,567 hectares, the new cocoa cultivation area approved for the State is 750 hectares, of
which 40 hectares are from the Penampang district. However, this area can be expanded if there are new
applications from the landowners to be included in the New Cocoa Planting Programme this year or next year."
He said another programme conducted by the Malaysian Cocoa Board in an effort to promote the cultivation of
cocoa is the Cocoa for the People programme.
This programme was initiated in 2009, to encourage people to plant cocoa in the areas with limited land.
COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,
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Website: www.copal-cpa.org
8
"This programme does not need a land grant, and the monitoring is to ensure that cocoa trees are planted and
have a lot of fruits and easily managed around the home environment.
"However, from random studies made on the recipients of Cocoa for the People Programme in Penampang, it
appears most people here still not understand how to plant and care for their cocoa trees.
"Therefore, I urge those who have received the cocoa seedlings to come to get information on how to plant and
care properly for their cocoa trees, including fertilising and pruning them from the Malaysian Cocoa Board."
Also present were Moyog Assemblyman Datuk Donald Mojuntin and Malaysian Cocoa Board Director General
Dr Lee Choon Hui.
The Market
Uganda’s cocoa prices up amid dwindling supplies
Daily Monitor
By Dorothy Nakaweesi
April 11 2012
Positive trend. According to UEPB, cocoa has become one of
Uganda’s leading foreign exchange earners.
Uganda may be a small cocoa-producing country, but the recent
increase in revenues points to growing exports of the commodity
even as production lags behind.
Data from the Uganda Export Promotion Board (UEPB) indicate
a growing trend in cocoa export revenues thus boosting the
country’s total exports.
Latest export revenue figures indicate that in 2010, Uganda realised a total of $35.1 million (Shs87.5 billion) of
out of the total 14,529 metric tonnes exported, indicating a rise from $15.7 million (Shs39.2 billion) earned from
the 10,006 tonnes exported in 2007.
Mr Othieno Odoi, UEPB’s exports promotions officer while giving a validation of this performance said: “There
has been a tremendous growth in export earnings of cocoa as a non-traditional export. When this is factored into
the total export earnings of the country, it means a lot.”
However, experts in the sector are worried because the country is not producing enough to meet the increasing
demand.
Production is not boosted, the country may lose out to global competition for a crop which fetches a premium
price.
“There are too many buyers and exporters are getting poor margins. This coupled with high inflation, has made
cocoa very expensive to purchase and not enough production to go round,” Mr Philip Bates the managing
director of Esco (U) Limited-the leading Cocoa exporter in the country said.
But farmers are laughing their way to the bank because they are being paid a good price. Currently, for each
kilogramme of cocoa, a farmer is paid between Shs4,000 and Shs4,400 depending on the location and quality of
the beans.
Five years ago, the Ugandan government in collaboration with the Cocoa Development Organisation embarked
on a campaign to boast production. In this, strategy a total of 35 million seedlings were supposed to be planted
in a spread of seven years.
Cocoa growers.
COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,
P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
Email: econs@copal-cpa.org
Website: www.copal-cpa.org
9
Currently, there are about 10,000 registered organic cocoa farmers with a total estimates of about 15,000
farmers found in Bundibugyo alone. Farmers in all other districts combined may reach 20,000.
Cocoa shortage to push up chocolate price
ABC Local
By Prue Bentley
12 April, 2012
Chocolate has become so ubiquitous that for many it's no longer
just a special treat.
It's this very success that poses serious challenges for chocolate
manufacturers, like Mars Foods in Ballarat.
The main ingredient, cocoa, comes from a small tree called the
cacao which is only grown in the tropics.
Demand for chocolate is now truly global, and it's grown substantially over the past decade partly because of the
rise of the middle classes in emerging economies like China and India.
That's putting huge pressure on chocolate production.
There are some predictions that the price of a chocolate bar could rocket towards $10 per bar within the decade.
Barry Parkin is Vice President Commercial Global Chocolate for Mars Inc. and says the whole industry has to
work with farmers to improve yields and processing to head off these sorts of price rises.
NY cocoa settles firm, sugar ends at 3-month low
Reuters
By Marcy Nicholson
Apr 13, 2012 *
(Reuters) - U.S. cocoa futures bucked the day's weak trend in commodities and closed higher on Friday, on
follow-through buying and support from the lower-than-expected European cocoa grind data.
Raw sugar tumbled to close down 3.5 percent at its lowest settlement in three months, extending its losses after
falling below the 100-day moving average. Arabica coffee changed direction on Friday to finish lower,
succumbing to pressure from the firm U.S. dollar and weak commodity complex.
2:00 PM
SETTLE NET PCT
LOW HIGH CURRENT
CHNG CHNG
VOL
Sugar MAY 23.37 -0.85 -3.5% 23.27 24.29 62,684
Sugar JUL
22.81 -0.71 -3.0% 22.71 23.58 56,559
Cocoa MAY 2248
88
4.1% 2,160 2,259 9,377
Cocoa JUL
2200
57
2.7% 2,143 2,217 19,932
Coffee MAY 179.2 -3.7 -2.0% 178.15 186.40 20,866
Coffee JUL 180.2 -4.05 -2.2% 179.15 187.10 20,632
TOTAL MARKET
VOLUME
CURRENT 30D AVG 250D AVG
ICE SUGAR
151,796 110,065 90,519
ICE COCOA
35,016 26,129 19,695
ICE COFFEE
47,453 26,767 20,350
RAW SUGAR
* May raw sugar futures on ICE tumbled 0.85 cent, or 3.5 percent, to close at 23.37 cents a lb, the lowest
settlement since Jan. 12 for the spot contract.
* May closed the week down 4.9 percent, it's biggest drop since late November.
COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,
P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
Email: econs@copal-cpa.org
Website: www.copal-cpa.org
10
* Sugar dropped on spillover weakness from the lower oil market, firm U.S. dollar and lower commodity
complex - traders.
* Market extended its losses after falling through the 100-day moving average at 23.81 cents per lb.
* India is on track to achieve all-time high sugar exports over two straight seasons, 2011/12
(October/September) 2010/11 - Czarnikow.
ARABICA COFFEE
* July arabicas sank 4.05 cents, or 2.2 percent, to finish at $1.8020 per lb.
* On the week, the July contract closed down 2.9 percent.
* Total volume was heavy at roughly 47,450 lots, nearly double the 30-day average as May/July spreads
buoyed volume - Thomson Reuters preliminary data.
* Market turned lower but remained well within its one-month-long trading range of $1.77-$1.95.
* The market was viewed to be in a long period of consolidation after falling sharply to a 17-month low in
March traders.
* May/July spreading continued ahead of the May contract's first notice day April 20 - traders.
* May/July spread closed at 1 cent, narrowing from 1.35 cents on Thursday.
* Erratic weather is showing no mercy to Brazil's coffee crop as conditions turned dry again, depriving beans
of a last moisture boost that would help them swell out more before harvesting begins in about a month,
forecasters and agronomists said.
* Honduras, Central America's top coffee grower, expects a record coffee harvest next season, with exports
reaching more than 5.4 million 60-kilogram bags as the country aggressively expands production.
COCOA
* July cocoa closed up $57, or 2.7 percent, at $2,200per tonne.
* On the week, July closed up 4.4 percent.
* July peaked up 3.5 percent intraday at $2,217, the highest level since April 2.
* The May/July spread remained active ahead of the May contract's first notice day on Tuesday.
* The spread soared to close at $48 premium from $17 on Thursday, when the market first inverted.
* Market extended its gains on technical buying, after the July contract failed to make a new three-month low
and then closed higher on Thursday - traders..
* Higher-than-expected grind data in Europe also supported the market - traders.
* Total open interest climbed by 3,071 lots to 181,940 lots on April 12, the highest since Nov. 8 - ICE data.
* "The funds have been getting short on the way down and there's definitely been an inflow of new short
selling into themarket. Manufacturers and industry buyers have been taking on the weaker price, that's why
you're getting a nice build in the open interest." - Drew Geraghty, a commodity broker at ICAP
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Processing & Manufacturing
Views diverge before Europe, US cocoa grind data
Reuters *
By Marcy Nicholson
Apr 11, 2012
NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Forecasts for upcoming first-quarter grind data, anticipated by the cocoa
industry as an indicator of demand in Europe and North America, range more widely than usual amid
uncertainty about global economic forces and processing rates in top-grower Ivory Coast.
The diverging views on whether cocoa grinding rates will rise or fall in the Northern Hemisphere reflect the
uncertainty surrounding the strength of demand for cocoa, the primary ingredient in chocolate, which has
traditionally been considered a recession-proof consumer product.
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For Europe, where 40 percent of the world's cocoa is consumed, forecasts from analysts contacted by Reuters
ranged from a drop of 3.8 percent to a rise of 3 percent from the first quarter last year, when 353,103 tonnes of
beans were processed.
In North America, estimates spanned falling 5.5 percent to rising 4 percent from the 118,633 tonnes recorded in
the same period last year.
The data will be released in Europe on Friday and in North America on April 19.
Some of the uncertainty stems from the civil war last year in the Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa grower,
which shifted some cocoa bean processing to Europe, North America and Asia in early 2011 and boosted the
grind rate in those regions.
Analysts said active Ivorian processing has picked up since the civil war ended after cocoa grinding dropped 12
percent in the 2010/11 season, but to what extent is still unclear.
The resulting boost to Europe and North American production last year could distort year-on-year comparisons.
"During Q1 2011, the civil war in Ivory Coast resulted in production being shifted to Europe and North America
which resulted in the high skewed numbers," said Keith Flury, senior commodity analyst for Agri Commodity
Markets Research in London, who forecast a drop in grindings.
A fall in the grinding would be the first since 2010 in Europe and since 2009 in North America.
Even so, most analysts are braced for a surprise.
"Over the year we are expecting a small increase in global grinds, but what we've learnt in the last few quarters
is that finding out whether the cocoa is actually being ground in Europe, Africa, Asia or America is very
difficult," said Jonathan Parkman, head of agriculture at brokers Marex Spectron.
"Try as I might to normalize Q1 with all the cross-wind variables from last year, I am not able to make a solid
conclusion," said Shawn Hackett, of Hackett Financial Advisors in Florida.
"I am more comfortable in stating that the 2011-2012 global grind should be no better than a 1.5-percent
increase. Continued decelerating global economies will not allow for a strapped consumer to indulge."
In February, the ICCO forecast world grindings will rise 2 percent to 3.99 million tonnes in 2011/12.
A London-based dealer, who expects grindings will be down 1-3 percent in Europe for the quarter and flat in
North America, was less than upbeat.
"Overall demand is flat and going forward we see that remaining unchanged," he said.
This contrasts with the traditional view that cocoa demand will grow steadily, with chocolate seen as an
affordable luxury even in the face of economic hardship.
A veteran dealer in New York, who forecast European grind data will be up about 2 percent while North
America will fall 2-4 percent, said there is the sense in the United States that people are feeling more of a
squeeze on their disposable income.
Europe's Sweet Tooth Buoys Cocoa
Wall Street Journal
By Alexandra Wexler
April 13, 2012
Europe's taste for chocolate proved sweet for cocoa on Friday.
Prices for the commodity in New York and London jumped on better-than-expected European cocoa-grindings
data. Cocoa grindings, which are seen as a barometer of demand for chocolate, had been expected to drop
between 2% and 5% for the first quarter of 2012. Instead, the amount of processed beans decreased 0.1% from
the year-ago period, to 389,452 tons, according to figures from the European Cocoa Association.
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Chocolate Easter chicks are decorated at Burie Chocolatier in Antwerp, Belgium, last week, typically a busy
time for chocolate makers.
"Let's face it, the Europeans have had kind of a tough go," said Jack
Scoville, vice president at Price Futures Group, referring to the
Continent's sovereign-debt troubles and weakened economies.
"Buying a nice piece of chocolate is probably one of the cheaper ways
to do something luxurious, cheaper than buying roses."
While demand for chocolate eased slightly in Europe, the decline isn't
likely to be enough to compensate for an expected cocoa shortage.
The International Cocoa Organization last month estimated a global
cocoa deficit of 71,000 tons, a reversal from last season's 347,000-ton surplus, due to poor weather in topproducing region West Africa.
Seasonal winds blowing off the Saharan desert damaged cocoa pods from the end of 2011 through the first few
months of this year, sparking concern that output would be crimped. The region also has experienced less rain
than usual.
The front-month cocoa contract on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange in New York on Friday vaulted 4.1%, to
settle at $2,248 a ton, its highest settlement since March 28. On London's Liffe, the front-month cocoa contract
settled 2.8% higher, at £1,452 ($2,318) a ton, its highest since April 2. Traders said investors closing out bets
that prices would fall, called short covering, also contributed to the rally.
"European grind data was probably a bit better than a lot of cocoa manufacturers and processors expected, with
the consensus expectation being a bit weaker than the final figure," said Jonathan Parkman, co-head of
Agriculture Commodities at Marex Spectron. Investors have been concerned that demand in Europe, the largest
consumer of cocoa products, would wane amid the gloomy economic climate.
"However, it is very foolhardy to take the European grind number as a proxy for what is going on in the world,"
Mr. Parkman said. "Despite being a large part of the global grind, the figure by no means tells you what's going
on everywhere."
The decline was the first year-on-year fall in quarterly grindings since the fourth quarter of 2009.
"When you look at the European grind and subtract out Germany, the numbers were soft," said Judy GanesChase, president at J. Ganes Consulting. "They just weren't quite as negative as people thought they would be."
The market will now look ahead to similar data for North America, due this coming Thursday. Traders expect
cocoa grindings to be flat or slightly lower than the first quarter of 2011, indicating a slight decline in demand
for chocolate.
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Caterpiller attack hits south Cameroon cocoa
Reuters Africa
By Tansa Musa
Apr 9, 2012
YAOUNDE, April 9 (Reuters) - Caterpillers have attacked cocoa trees in one of Cameroon's main growing
regions, dampening hopes for a bumper mid-crop in the south of the country, farmers and officials said on
Monday.
The pests have infested plantations in South Region, which is Cameroon's No. 3 growing zone, after a similar
attack on the South-West region earlier in the year.
South Region accounts for 15 percent of cocoa production from Cameroon, the world's fifth biggest grower,
which harvested a record 240,000 tonnes in 2010/11.
"The attack has been very extensive, destroying as much as 50-100 percent of some cocoa plantations," said
Essien Efa, a local cocoa farmers cooperative leader in the region's headquarters Ebolowa.
"Almost all our hopes of a bumper mid-crop harvest due to early rains in February are gone," Efa added.
Some farmers have blamed the wave of caterpillars on extreme heat and the lack of pesticides to treat the crops.
Lazarre Essimi Menye, Cameroon's agriculture minister, visited the region over the weekend and ordered the
emergency distribution of pesticides and spraying kit for farmers.
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