29 March 2004
Submitted by:
Asian Disaster
Preparedness Center
Bangkok, Thailand
Institute of Water
Modeling
Dhaka, Bangladesh
Center for Environmental School of Earth and and Geographic
Information Services
Atmospheric Sciences
Georgia Institute of
Technology
Dhaka, Bangladesh Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Climate variability-associated recurring natural hazards, such as severe floods and droughts, undermine the development efforts of Bangladesh and aggravate poverty. Recent major floods (1998) and drought (2000) had upset the delicately balanced food security in the country. High crop-intensity agricultural growth, coupled with crop diversification in recent years, had rendered farming systems more vulnerable to climate risks than before.
Global warming-induced climate change further aggravates the potential risks.
Climate uncertainties in disaster prone environments had been one of the major factors for promoting risk-averse tendencies. This, however, has prohibited communities from exploiting the potential benefits of the climate resource even during normal/ good years.
Current early warning on floods provides a lead time of 48 - 72 hours, which is insufficient for cropping decisions, such as early harvesting, or to implement a contingency crop plan or protect infrastructure and preserve livelihoods. The flood warnings are issued in forms that are not easily understood by local managers and communities. Also, the uncertainties and risks associated with the warnings are not evaluated and communicated to the local level managers and communities.
Advances in the science of climate prediction in recent years provide an opportunity to anticipate and manage climate risks. Climate forecast information at various time scales provide a useful tool for at risk communities and planners in Bangladesh in managing these risks. Climate forecast information with sufficient lead time and presented in a locally usable format has been increasingly recognized as one of the potential instruments to enable communities and planners to shift from reacting to disasters to anticipating and managing climate risks.
In response to this felt need, the Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB) project has been implemented in Bangladesh since November 2000, with the involvement of the Program on Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (PAOS) at the University of
Colorado/ Georgia Institute of Technology (GATECH), Atlanta, USA, with assistance from the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), Bangkok, Thailand, and supported by the
USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA). The PAOS/GATECH group has been engaged in research aimed at increasing the lead-time of flood forecasting in
Bangladesh, while ADPC has been identifying broader forecast application opportunities and seeking ways to institutionalize CFAB in Bangladesh.
The project has been implemented with the active participation of key stakeholders in
Bangladesh through a Steering Committee process. Membership in the CFAB Steering
Committee includes the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Bangladesh Water
Development Board, Department of Agriculture Extension, Disaster Management Bureau,
Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), Institute of Water
Modeling (IWM), and CARE Bangladesh. The Steering Committee meets periodically to review, monitor and guide the implementation of CFAB in Bangladesh.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center i

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)
By the end of December 2003, CFAB had:

Tested the long-term (1-6 months) flood forecast scheme

Developed a new medium-term (20-25 days) flood forecast scheme

Increased the lead time of the short-term flood forecast from 2 days to nearly 8 days

Established a multi-sectoral institutional set up composed of climate forecast providers and users in Bangladesh.

Delivered in May 2003 the experimental forecast for the summer monsoon 2003.
Preliminary evaluation of forecast performance in August 2003 revealed significant concurrence with observed conditions.
Now that the institutional infrastructure is in place and the technology for climate and flood forecasting has been developed and experimentally tested during the summer monsoon
2003, there is a need to undertake the following distinct but interconnected activities to take full advantage of the new path-breaking forecast technology and its application practices for managing climate risks:

Transfer the technology for the various forecasting schemes (short-, medium- and long-term forecasts) to Bangladesh institutions to enable them to absorb and assimilate the new technology

Develop a training program to enable Bangladesh scientists and sectoral professionals to run the forecasting and application system on a sustained basis

Further test real-time forecasts with the aim of making them completely operational by the end of year 2006

Develop a localized forecast product to provide climate information within
Bangladesh for the prediction of flash floods, as well as the lengths of dry and wet spells within the monsoon season in response to a new demand from the
Government of Bangladesh

Demonstrate through pilot projects the end-to-end application of climate information where the climate forecast generated is translated into a flood forecast, interpreted into an impact outlook, and communicated to end users to enable them to make informed responses.
To move CFAB forward and undertake the above-listed activities, ADPC submits herewith a project proposal, for funding support consideration, to the Royal Netherlands Embassy in
Dhaka, Bangladesh. We look forward to a strong and productive partnership as we aim to increase at-risk communities’ resilience to climate risks.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
Dr. Suvit Yodmani
Executive Director ii

A. Background
Much of the country is flooded every year and, to a large extent, the agriculture system has adapted to this normal flooding. However, early floods in May and June, greater than normal peak floods in July, August, or late floods extending in September have distinctly negative impacts on food crop production potential. Major damaging floods, such as these, occurred during 1974, 1987, 1988, 1997 and (especially) 1998. From the 1998 flood alone,
10 – 20 % of the total food crop production of Bangladesh was lost. Given the general food deficit in Bangladesh, reductions in yield crop due to severe floods endangers the food security of the country.
On the other hand, Bangladesh can experience droughts every 5 years or so. These droughts usually occur in western Bangladesh and are associated with either late arrival of monsoon rains or an early withdrawal. Severe droughts occurred in 1966, 1969, 1972, 1978, 1979,
1982, 1989, 1992, 1994, and 1998 and 2000, causing substantial reduction in food production.
Recent studies of how poor households cope in the event of natural hazards indicate that they are largely ineffective especially with recurring natural hazards. Examples of the failures include widespread disinvestments of livestock and financial borrowing in order to meet household food needs. These coping strategies lead to an inevitable debt trap. On the broader national scale, reccurring natural hazards, such as severe floods and droughts, undermine development efforts of Bangladesh and aggravate attempts to reduce poverty.
Uncertainties in climate in disaster prone environments have been a major factor for communities at risk to defer taking advantage of climate forecasts even during good and average years. Overall uncertainty in the future state of the climate acts as a barrier for the possibility of sustainable development in the high risk prone areas of Bangladesh. However, advance information of climate risks through the provision of skillful forecasts with sufficient lead time could enable communities and the Government to anticipate and manage risks instead of responding to their recurring disasters after the fact. Hence, generation and application of climate prediction information has been recognized as one of the instruments with most potential to enable the communities and the Government to manage climate risks by minimizing the impacts during extreme years and maximizing potential gains during good and average years.
From 2000-2003, the US Agency for International Development’s Office of Foreign
Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) supported the Climate Forecast Applications in
Bangladesh (CFAB) project to reduce vulnerability to climate hazards in agriculture and water resources, and to mitigate the disastrous effects of floods through the generation and application of climate and flood forecast information. The project was initially developed
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 1

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB) at the Program on Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (PAOS) at the University of
Colorado in Boulder. The principal investigator and his group have relocated at the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The US group has engaged in research aimed at increasing the lead-time of flood forecasting in
Bangladesh, with assistance from the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) based in
Bangkok, Thailand. ADPC has concentrated on the identification of the broader forecast application opportunities and has worked towards the institutionalization of the project in
Bangladesh.
The project specifically aims to:

Develop forecasting schemes for Bangladesh floods that add predictive skills to current efforts within Bangladesh

Develop resilient schemes that will be able to take advantage of improvements in data availability, predictive modeling, data assimilation, etc. as they occur in the future

Promote international cooperative efforts that will provide data and tools necessary for the prediction schemes, noting that flood forecasting techniques require substantial technological investment and infrastructure

Develop an infrastructure within Bangladesh that will make use of the forecasts and will eventually own the prediction schemes

Work actively with partners in Bangladesh to facilitate a rapid technological transfer
Over the past three years of its implementation, the project has achieved the following:

Infrastructure development. A strong infrastructure has been set up within
Bangladesh to facilitate the development of flood forecasting schemes and their application. A Steering Committee, consisting of the Disaster Management
Bureau – Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (DMB-MDMR),
Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Flood Forecasting and Warning
Center (FFWC), Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Center for
Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), Institute of
Water Modeling Center (IWM), CARE Bangladesh, and ADPC was formed.
The Steering Committee meets regularly to guide project implementation.
Internationally, in association with the School of Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences (EAS) at the Georgia Institute of Technology, collaboration has been developed with the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF) for accessing and utilizing its forecast products in the monsoon regions.

Testing of long-term (1-6 months) forecast schemes. Historical data were used to initialize the long-range flood forecasting scheme. Results of the test indicated that major flood years could be predicted months before their occurrence – for example, the 1998 floods would have been forecast three months before their occurrence, giving sufficient lead time for anticipatory actions.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 2

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)

Development of new medium-term (20-25 days) forecast scheme. A new statistical scheme for the prediction of rainfall (and river discharge) into
Bangladesh has been developed, providing potential application for disaster management, particularly for the management of floods and drought.

Establishment of skill of short-term (1-6 days) flood forecasts. The project has showed that short-term forecast can be extended from the current 2 days to nearly 8 days. This increase in lead time will allow emergency planning, and selective planting or harvesting to reduce potential crop losses at the beginning or end of the cropping cycle.

Forecast application. A method to bridge the gap between producers and users of probabilistic forecasts has been developed through the generation of a User
Metric that provides an aggregated risk analysis to aid a user community in making absolute decisions (for example, evaluate the risk in harvesting early to ensure 80% of the potential yield, or wait for two weeks to obtain 100% yield but with the possibility of losing the entire harvest).

Delivery of experimental forecast during the summer monsoon 2003. The project performed experimental real-time long-, medium- and short-term forecasts of river discharge into Bangladesh for the summer of 2003, and the validation of which is presented in the following table:
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 3

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)
Table 1. Experimental forecasts delivered during the summer monsoon 2003
Type of forecast
Long-term
(1-6 months) produced every
15 th of the month for the next six months
(most accurate for the ensuing 3 months)
Medium-term
(20-25 days) made separately for the Ganges and the
Brahmaputra every 5 days.
Short-term
(1-6 days) issued daily
General use
Provides an overview of the coming season.
Application includes long-term agriculture and water management planning and anticipatory actions to manage disaster risks.
Finer resolution compared to longterm forecast, applicable for timing of planting and harvesting, storage of water for irrigation, and logistics planning for flood management
Most certain forecast compared to medium- and longterm forecasts, with detailed information of river discharge into Bangladesh.
Allows early decisions for flood and drought mitigation, and disaster management.
Forecast issued in
May 2003
More likely greater than expected water levels with some probability of dangerously above average flow for July.
Most likely average to slightly below average river flow into
Bangladesh for
August.
Validation
Observed conditions through July showed rising trend of water levels; flood-associated damages were reported.
In late July and early
August, discharge into
Bangladesh has decreased as forecast.
Rising trend in water levels in the Ganges in mid-July, and in
Brahmaputra in last week of July with discharge exceeding the danger levels.
Observed water levels agreed with the prediction quite well.
Floods were confined to localized areas since peaks in water levels in
Ganges and
Brahmaputra were attained at different times in July.
Early in the process, there were some deviations between forecasts and observed conditions particularly in the Brahmaputra basin in the first week of July, especially at extended time of the forecast period (>5 days). Mid-course correction was done and the deviations were narrowed down because of the interactive feedback mechanism established between the University of
Colorado at Boulder, the Georgia Institute of
Technology, Institute of Water Modeling and partner institutions in Bangladesh who provide regular feedback based on local observation.
Now that the institutional infrastructure is in place and the technology for climate and flood forecasting has been developed and experimentally tested during the summer monsoon
2003, there is a need to transfer this prediction technology to Bangladesh institutions, build the capacity of these institutions to use this prediction technology, and set up an end-to-end climate information application system where this prediction is translated and interpreted into a form (e.g. impact outlook) that is easily understood by end users such as farmers, fishermen and other communities whose livelihoods are impacted by floods and drought.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 4

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)
The five-year project Climate/ Flood Forecast Applications for Water-Related Disaster
Mitigation in Bangladesh: Technology Transfer, Capacity Building and Demonstrations is herewith proposed to:

Continue to develop and improve forecast schemes and test experimental realtime operational basis with the aim of making them completely operational by the end of year 2006

Develop a localized forecast product to provide climate information within
Bangladesh for the prediction of flash floods, as well as the lengths of dry and wet spells within the monsoon season in response to a new demand from the
Government of Bangladesh (GoB)

Transfer technology for the various forecasting schemes (short-, medium- and long-term forecasts)

Develop a training program for Bangladesh scientists to run the forecasting and application system

Demonstrate through pilot projects the end-to-end application of climate information where the climate forecast generated is translated into a flood forecast, interpreted into an impact outlook, and communicated to end users to enable them to make informed responses.
A. Program Goal
Develop sustainable and resilient institutional systems for the end-to-end generation and application of climate information in Bangladesh, demonstrating improvements in the performance of climate-sensitive sectors at the community level, with the capacity to upscale and replicate in other locations in the country.
B. Critical Assumptions
The Government of Bangladesh has recognized the need to improve the technical and technological capacities of BMD and FFWC. The proposed program bases on the assumption that the GoB is committed to improve the capacities of these agencies and would initiate programs towards this aim to complement the proposed program’s capacity building of BMD and FFWC. The transfer of the forecast technology developed requires that the technology exists within Bangladesh to perform the forecasts in terms of computing infrastructure and technical personnel.
C. Objectives and Expected Results
Program Objective 1: Forecast technology tested and transferred, and capacities developed to operationalize the forecast systems within Bangladesh.
It is expected that
BMD and FFWC will be technically and technologically capable of handling its own climate and flood forecasts and of integrating quantitative forecasts from international institutions such as ECMWF into the Bangladesh context and apply these forecasts in decision making so that remedial actions can be taken.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 5

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)
Program Objective 2: Sustainable end-to-end generation and application of climate information demonstrated through pilot projects at selected sites, showing measurable improvements in the performance of climate-sensitive sectors.
This involves participatory identification of the related problems of floods and drought, the communication of translated and interpreted forecast products to end users (farmers, fishermen, and other communities whose livelihoods are impacted by these hydrological events), the communication of end users’ feedback on the usability of these forecast products, and the subsequent correction undertaken by the forecast producers (BMD and FFWC) to tailor their products to the users’ needs.
Expected results under each objective through the three program components are shown in
Table 2.
Table 2. Expected results under each program objective and program component
Program
Components
Objective 1
Forecast technology tested and transferred, and capacities developed to operationalize the forecast systems within Bangladesh.
Technology Transfer

Real-time forecasts tested for two summers to make them completely operational by the end of year 2006

Technology transferred for short-, medium- and long-term forecasts
Capacity Building
Objective 2
Sustainable end-to-end generation and application of climate information demonstrated through pilot projects at selected sites, showing measurable improvements in the performance of climatesensitive sectors.

User metric tested, refined and transferred to measure enhanced performance with the use of forecast products

Site selection procedures developed and packaged

User metric packaged for broader dissemination and application

Tailored climate and flood information products are available at demonstration sites

A network of local and national trained manpower to upscale and replicate the projects
Demonstration
Projects

Bangladeshi personnel trained to handle and modify the forecast systems as necessary

A training of trainers course conducted for meteorologists on the generation and delivery of climate information for application at the local level

Localized forecast product developed to provide climate information within
Bangladesh for the prediction of flash floods and lengths of dry and wet spells within the monsoon season

Pilot sites of high climate predictability, vulnerability, and with receptive local institutions selected

Climate information generation and application system demonstrated

Learning for managing flood and drought risks through the application of climate information in locations not directly targeted by the project transferred
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 6

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)
PROGRAM DESCRIPTION
A. Implementation Plan
The following activities will be undertaken under each program component:
1. Partnership Development
Institutional mechanisms at the national and local levels will be set-up for program implementation: a) National level working group
A working group, composed of climate information producers and users at the national level, will be constituted: the BMD, FFWC, DMB, DAE, CARE, IWM and
CEGIS. It shall:

Convene annually, with the participation of representatives of the local level working groups to discuss constraints in the generation and application of climate information and identify approaches on how the system may be refined to respond to users’ needs.

Pilot the national climate training course to enhance understanding on how climate impacts society, and how climate information may be used for decision-making to reduce risks.

Identify strategies for replication and develop national policies for the end-to-end application of climate information. b) Local level working group
The local level working group, composed of local level representatives of BMD,
Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), DMB, DAE, CEGIS, IWM and farmers groups, will guide demonstration project implementation through to completion. It shall:

Participate in the site selection process

Investigate the impacts of climate events on specific sectors using a participatory approach, with guidance from the technical advisory group

Assess user needs for climate information and identify opportunities to use climate information in decision calendars

Inject localized climate information in decision making models by local communities

Convene before, during and after each seasonal forecast to monitor progress of the local demonstration site
A technical advisory group, composed of, ADPC, EAS, IWM, CEGIS and drawing from a pool of experts from national, regional and international agencies, will assist in the
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 7

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB) downscaling of climate information, the application of the User Metric in risk analysis, and in the implementation of the demonstration projects.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 8

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)
2. Technology Transfer and Capacity Building
The technology developed for the generation of forecasts for various time scales will be transferred to BMD and FFWC. This would require:

Further testing of the forecast models for three summers using real-time data.
System modifications will be undertaken as necessary during this period. The forecasting technology should be operational and ready for transfer by the end of
2006.

Training of Bangladeshi personnel to operationalize and modify the forecast systems when required. This will be undertaken as a parallel activity during the course of the implementation of the project. Considerable amount of training would be required considering the current level of technology that exists in
BMD. Representative Institutions participants will be sent for internship at the
Georgia Institute of Technology to develop the necessary computer and numerical skills. These hydro-meteorologists would form the necessary nucleus for incorporating prediction and application schemes within the existing BMD.
Hydrologists from FFWC will also undergo training under the IWM.

Technical capacity at BMD for climate prediction. Incorporation of the climate prediction technology into the Bangladesh system will be done gradually over the period of three years.
ADPC would conduct a training of trainers course for the application of climate information will also be conducted for the BMD Agromet Division, DAE, DMB, CEGIS and FFWC to enhance understanding on how climate impacts society, identify gaps of current forecasting techniques and how they may be improved to meet users’ needs, and identify opportunities in delivering climate information products for decision-making. This involves curriculum development and the conduct of the training of trainers course.
3. Demonstration of the end-to-end generation and application of climate information at selected pilot sites
The generation of climate information, translation into flood forecast, interpretation into an impact outlook and its subsequent communication to end users will be undertaken (Fig. 1)
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 9

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)
Climate (rainfall and discharge) forecasting technology (EAS)
BMD
Climate forecast IWM
ADPC / CEGIS
Agro met translation
FFWC
Interpretation
DMB, DAE
Discharge translation
CEGIS, ADPC, IWM
Communication CEGIS, ADPC
End users
Figure 1. End-to-end climate information generation and application system a) Site selection
Five demonstration sites will be selected, with participation of the local level working group, based on the following criteria:

High climate predictability. Thirty years or longer data should be available as this is necessary in developing forecast for a particular location.

High vulnerability to floods/ drought.

Receptivity of local and regional institutions, as the program involves their participation.

National policy implications. The problem to be addressed has implications on national policy so that the program can advocate for change.

Replicability. Conditions at the site are representative of sites at other locations in the country to allow for replication of the process and therefore of results.
ADPC in collaboration with CEGIS will carry out all activities relating to site selection. b) Vulnerability analysis
Using a participatory approach (focus group discussion, interviews, etc.), the sector vulnerable to floods and drought will be identified. This involves the assessment of: the climate-related problem – who takes climate risk-related decisions?; what are they and what are their options?; how climate-dependent are they?; what major policies and institutions are involved?; who are the major stakeholders, what are their expected interests and roles?
The vulnerability analysis will be carried out by the local level working group, guided by
ADPC and implemented by CEGIS.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 10

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB) c) Assessment of user needs
Each pilot site will be evaluated for the most suitable ways to inject climate information into local decision-making processes. The local level working group will facilitate a dialogue between end users and the providers of climate information on the nature of uncertainty and risk of probabilistic climate information with reference to local infrastructure, resource management and decision cycles; establish an understanding of historical impacts of floods and drought and the adaptive strategies taken by the community; assess the sensitivity of decision cycles to floods and drought, and the potential for and benefits that may be gained from using climate information; evaluate the nature of climate information required and its location within the production decision cycle (e.g. onset of wet/ dry spell and lead time required for the information to guide farmers’ decisions on the choice of crop, planting and agricultural inputs required); and determine the level of demand for this information. Linking climate information to sectoral decision models, such as the farmers’ decision calendar, will allow users in local communities to plan for the next cycle of activities. ADPC in collaboration with CEGIS will conduct all activities relating to assessment of users needs. d) Development of localized forecast products
With an enhanced forecasting capability, BMD will be able to develop localized forecast products to provide climate information within Bangladesh for the prediction of flash floods and lengths of dry and wet spells within the monsoon season. Information required for the development of forecast for a specific site (e.g. historical rainfall and discharge data) will be obtained and analyzed for hydrometeorological predictability and, based on this information, the downscaled or localized climate information will be generated taking into consideration the nature of information that the users need. During the course of implementation of the program, IWM will assist FFWC in the translation of this information into a flood forecast and flood management model. In developing localized forecast product, the knowledge and methodology will be done with active participation from CEGIS and other partners. e) Preparation and communication of the flood/ drought impact outlook
The flood forecast will then be interpreted into an impact outlook, which indicates the likely impacts of the flood forecast on resources, including response options. ADPC and CEGIS will guide DMB and DAE along the process.
The user metric developed earlier offers a simple way to incorporate information on impacts with probabilistic forecasts to provide an easily interpretable graphic for risk analysis to enable users to make reasoned decisions. It incorporates:

Information from the forecast schemes of the probability of the occurrence of a particular event with specific intensity and duration. For example, the forecast may state that there will be a 15% likelihood of extreme rainfall in 20 days, 25% chance for moderate rainfall, 40% chance for light rainfall, 20% chance for little of no rainfall. This information comes from techniques developed by CFAB and is updated every 5 days.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 11

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)

User community assessments of the impacts of the occurrence of a particular event. A user community is best equipped to calculate the loss associated with the occurrence of a particular natural hazard. For example, an agricultural community understands the variations in yield of a particular crop type depending on rainfall extremes. The user community knows the impact of heavy rainfall on a particular agricultural application: it may be disastrous at harvest time. Light rain, on the other hand may only invoke minimal crop reduction.

The two pieces of information (probability forecast plus user information) are combined to produce an optimal strategy. Such a strategy, appearing in quantitative form, might suggest that the optimal strategy for maximum yield might be to harvest crops early rather than take the chance of heavy rainfall.
The metric so developed still needs to be tested in the demonstration sites and, as necessary, refined. f) Application of information in demonstration sites
The application of climate information will be demonstrated in the pilot sites selected. The concept of climate variability, terminologies used in climate forecasting, and the probability concept in climate/ seasonal forecasts will be introduced to end users. These users will also be guided to set up a strategy under a given climate forecast, and measure climatic data in the field and use these to assess crop water requirements in agriculture (as an example).
The project will use the Farmer Field Schools established by the Integrated Pest
Management Practices (IPMP) program, where farmers communicate their experience in managing pest problem and receives information on modern and improved practices.
CFAB will integrate communication of climate information and gradually transform these schools into Climate Risk Management Schools (CRMS). This approach would draw resources from the ongoing institutional mechanism without any additional costs.
The CRMS would connect climate information providers and users through a mutual learning mechanism by adopting a joint problem solving approach. The CRMS will be conducted in two phases, according to the following model:

The first phase will train an agriculture extension specialist on climate information technologies, who would then conduct training for agriculture extension workers in selected pilot locations.

Trained agricultural workers would then train farmer groups during the second phase.
The training program will use IPMP modules, with group dynamic exercises aimed at developing better leadership, creativity and teamwork, that will be suitably adapted and integrated with climate information technology-related curriculum components. One major activity in the CRMS is the establishment of a climate behavior observation system by the farmers. This system would enable farmers to collect and record climate information such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, etc., and thus gain an understanding of climate variability.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 12

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)
Response options in anticipation of the next season’s climate will be delivered to farmers/ end users to help them make appropriate decisions. Users’ response will then be monitored to determine the applicability of the climate information at the local level, as well as measured to determine enhanced performance with the use of the forecast products.
Responses will then be fed back to the climate information providers for any system adjustment that may be required.
This CRMS institutional process will integrate the concerns of DMB and other user organizations to reach all categories of end users like farmers, fishermen and others whose livelihoods are impacted by climate/ flood risks.
The ADPC will provide technical assistance for conduct of CRMS process.
The local-level working group will be tasked to implement the demonstration projects, with facilitation from guidance from ADPC and CEGIS. g) Documentation, sharing of best practice and replication
The process and results of the demonstration projects will be documented to guide the upscaling of the project as well as to share best practice. This involves the packaging of the tools developed: site selection procedure, climate risk management school modules, and user metric, including best practice and lessons learned from the assessment of user vulnerability and needs, the generation, translation, interpretation and communication of climate information, and from its application in the demonstration sites.
Workshops will be organized each year from year 2 onwards to share best practice.
The demonstration projects will provide a model for the end-to-end generation and application of climate information for replication at other locations in the country. The national level working group will ensure the upscale and replication of the demonstration projects at the national level. They will also ensure that lessons learned from the demonstration projects will translate into national policies on the use of climate information to reduce climate risks.
B. Program Management
Overall coordination and management of the program will be the responsibility of ADPC.
The School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology will provide technical inputs for the operationalization of the forecasts, as well as training for
BMD for the transfer of the forecast technology in the first two years of the program. EAS will assist BMD to conduct mid-course corrections, as well as evaluate the forecasting system in the next three years of the program.
IWM will provide technical assistance to FFWC in the translation of discharge forecast into flood forecasts during the first three years, and will continue to guide FFWC as necessary in the last two years of the program. IWM will provide technical support to BMD for climate forecast technology transfer together with EAS. DMB and DAE, with technical guidance from ADPC, and CEGIS will be responsible for the interpretation of the climate / flood
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 13

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB) forecasts into an impact outlook. Communication of the impact outlook, including response options to end users will be done by DMB and DAE, guided by ADPC and CEGIS. With regard to demarcation of responsibilities of project implementation between ADPC and
CEGIS, ADPC in collaboration with EAS\GATECH will be responsible for facilitating transfer of Climate\ flood forecast technology to Bangladesh institutions as well as their capacity building measures in to enable them to absorb and make use of the technology on a sustained basis. For this purpose ADPC will enter into sub contract with EAS\ GATECH.
The CEGIS will be responsible for coordinating activities relating to dissemination of forecast information to end users.
Progress of implementation will be monitored by MOWR. Major activities that will be undertaken each year are shown in Table 3.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 14

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)
Table 3. Indicative workplan
Activity
Year 1
Constitution of the national level working group
Constitution of the local level working group
Testing of forecast models
Training need assessment of BMD personnel for climate prediction
Development of user metric for each pilot site
Year 3 and 4
Technology transfer for the climate prediction system
Curriculum development for climate information application training
Conduct of the national climate training of trainers course
Development of localized forecast products
Translation of climate forecast into flood forecast
Interpretation of flood forecast into impact outlook
MOWR
CEGIS, EAS, ADPC
EAS, BMD, IWM, FFWC
EAS, BMD, IWM, FFWC
EAS, BMD, IWM, FFWC, ADPC
CEGIS
Task by
MOWR
BMD, EAS, IWM
EAS, BMD, IWM
Introduction of climate prediction technology into BMD system EAS, BMD
Site profiling CEGIS, ADPC
Site selection
Year 2
Operationalization of forecast products
Training of BMD and FFWC personnel on use of forecast models
CEGIS, ADPC
EAS, BMD, FFWC, IWM, CEGIS
EAS, BMD, FFWC, IWM, CEGIS
Vulnerability assessment
Assessment of users’ needs
Develop curriculum of climate risk management school
Conduct farmers/ end-users training in climate risk management schools
ADPC, CEGIS
ADPC, CEGIS
DAE, DMB, CEGIS, ADPC
DAE, DMB, ADPC, CEGIS
EAS, ADPC, CEGIS
BMD, EAS, IWM
ADPC, CEGIS, EAS
Application of user metric
Application of activities through climate risk management schools
Year 5
Development of localized forecast products
Translation of climate forecast into flood forecast
Interpretation of flood forecast into impact outlook
Application of user metric
Application of activities through climate risk management schools
Evaluation of the end-to-end system
Conduct of lessons learned workshop
National policy formulation for adoption of experiences
BMD, IWM, FFWC, ADPC, EAS
CEGIS,
BMD, IWM, FFWC, ADPC, EAS
CEGIS,
EAS, BMD, IWM, FFWC
EAS, BMD, IWM, FFWC
EAS, BMD, IWM, FFWC, ADPC
EAS, BMD, IWM, FFWC, ADPC,
CEGIS
EAS, BMD, IWM, FFWC, ADPC,
CEGIS
CEGIS, ADPC
CEGIS, ADPC
CEGIS, ADPC
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 15

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Bangladesh (CFAB)
INDICATIVE BUDGET
Object
Class
Category
Year 1
($)
Year 2
($)
Personnel
EAS
ADPC
IWM
CEGIS
200,000
50,000
50,000
25,000
Sub Total 325,000
Direct cost
EAS
ADPC
IWM
100,000
25,000
25,000
CEGIS
Other
(FFWC,
DAE,
BMD,
DMB)
10,000
20,000
200,000
150,000
175,000
50,000
575,000
200,000
25,000
40,000
50,000
50,000
Sub Total 180,000
Indirect cost
EAS 50,000
ADPC
IWM
CEGIS
Other
(FFWC,
DAE,
BMD,
DMB)
10,000
25,000
25,000
20,000
365,000
75,000
10,000
40,000
75,000
20,000
Sub
Total
130,000
TOTAL COST
EAS 350,000
ADPC
IWM
CEGIS
Other
85,000
100,000
60,000
40,000
TOTAL
220,000
475,000
185,000
255,000
175,000
70,000
635,000 1,160,000
Year 3
($)
150,000
125,000
125,000
75,000
475,000
100,000
50,000
40,000
50,000
50,000
290,000
50,000
15,000
40,000
50,000
20,000
175,000
300,000
190,000
205,000
175,000
70,000
940,000
Year 4
($)
125,000
75,000
50,000
75,000
300,000
50,000
50,000
25,000
25,000
12,000
187,000
25,000
10,000
25,000
50,000
20,000
130,000
200,000
135,000
100,000
150,000
32,000
617,000
Year 5
($)
Total
($)
75,000
75,000
50,000
75,000
750,000
475,000
450,000
300,000
250,000 1,925,000
50,000
50,000
25,000
25,000
8,000
25,000
10,000
25,000
50,000
20,000
130,000
500,000
200,000
155,000
160,000
140,000
183,000 1,205,000
225,000
55,000
155,000
250,000
100,000
785,000
150,000 1,475,000
135,000 730,000
100,000 760,000
150,000 710,000
28,000 240,000
563,000 3,915,000
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 16