FINANCE 384: Corporate Valuation, Investment Decisions and Risk Management STUDENT LECTURE NOTE 8 Sp14CR I. PUT/CALL PARITY THEOREM OPTION PRICING1 A. Two Portfolio Insurance Strategies 1. Long Stock/Protective Put: a. Suppose that you wish to invest in a particular share, but because it will not be part of your long-term portfolio you are trying to determine a way to protect it against a short-term loss. One strategy is to purchase a put as a _____ against the long stock position. “Watching for riches consumeth the flesh, and the cares thereof driveth away sleep.” – The Holy Bible, Apocrypha—Ecclesiasticus 31:1 “Whosoever will save his life shall lose it: and whosever will lose his life for my sake shall find it. For what is a man profited, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his soul?” – Ibid., Matthew 16:25-26 “The love of money is the root of all evil.” – Ibid., Timothy I, 1:8 b. Assume for simplicity that the put employed is _____-_____ so that S0 = K and expires at time T. The initial value of the portfolio equals S0 + P. If the share price falls, the put is exercised and the share can be 1 This discussion draws upon that in Bodie, Kane and Marcus, Investments, 4th Ed. Chapter 20, (1999). 1 sold for K. If ST > S0, then the put finishes out-of-themoney and is not exercised. Thus, the portfolio is insured against ________ risk, and allows receiving upside price appreciation at the cost of a put. FIGURE 8.1 Value of Protective Put Portfolio at Expiration K > ST K < ST Stock ST ST + Put K - ST 0 = Total 2. Calls plus Bills: a. An alternative strategy that provides downside protection with unlimited ______ potential is to buy call options and treasury bills. For example, suppose one call (for the purchase of 100 shares) with an exercise price of K=100 is purchased. If exercised the cost of the shares would be $10,000. At the same time a T-Bill with a maturity value (at time T) equaling $10,000 is also purchased. More generally, you would purchase a risk-free zero-coupon bond with a face value of K, for each call held with exercise price K. b. Consider the value of this portfolio at time T when the call expires and the bill matures. The bill will be worth K and this provides a floor for the value of the portfolio. If the share price falls below K, then the call expires _________. Conversely, if the share price goes up, then the call will be exercised and worth 2 ST – K. Thus, the cost of the call provides the opportunity to realise upside potential. FIGURE 8.2 Value of Calls + Bills Portfolio at Expiration K > ST K < ST Call Value 0 ST – K + Riskless Bills K K = Total 3. No Arbitrage Relationship: a. It may be noted that the terminal values to the two portfolios shown in Figure 8.1 and 8.2 are the ____ in both the situation where K > ST or where K < ST. Thus, since no riskless arbitrage profits should be possible in equilibrium, the cost of the two portfolios should be the same. It can be concluded that the following relationship will hold: S0 + P = C + KR-t, (8.1) where: R = 1 + Rf (risk-free rate), and t = time-to-maturity as a fraction of a year. b. Equation (8.1) may be rearranged into the form of the put-call parity theorem that is most typically depicted. C – P = S0 - KR-t. (8.2) c. The version of the theorem shown in (8.2) is used because it highlights the fact that the “no arbitrage” 3 difference between a call and an otherwise similar puts’ prices should reflect the __________ between the stock price and the discounted exercise price. d. Students should note that assets with positive signs are assumed to be held long, whereas a negative sign denotes a short position. Equation (8.2) can also be solved directly to find the “synthetic” call and put prices. e. The “synthetic” call price is shown in (8.3). This demonstrates that a long call is equivalent to a ____ stock purchase, _________ the discounted exercise price and a ____ put purchase. C = S0 - KR-t + P. (8.3) f. The “synthetic” put price is shown in (8.4) below. Thus, a long put is equivalent to the stock sold _____, _______ the discounted exercise price and a ____ call purchase. P = -S0 + KR-t + C. (8.4) Ex. 8.1 You are given the following quotation for August 29, 2002 from the Australian Financial Review (AFR). Assume that the Dec ’02 options expire on December 24, 2002, a 365-day year and that the 120-day Bank Bill Swap Reference Rate equals 5.08%. Use the put/call parity theorem to determine the price of the Dec’02 call (K=12.25) price assuming the call expires in 117 days. 4 DERIVATIVES – SHARE OPTIONS Exer Series Price PUT OPTIONS Fair Value Last Sale Woolworth’s Ltd Last Sale Price $12.00 Dec 02 12.25 0.76 1.01 Vol 000’s Open Int 133 513 Implied Volatility Buyer Seller 36.78 36.67 Delta Annual % Return -.49 13.16 A8.1. n = 2 + 30 + 31 + 30 + 24 = ___ days. C = 12 – 12.25*1/((1.0508)117/365) + 1.01 = ________. F.Y.I. Call price using Black-Scholes = 0.957818. II. THE BLACK-SCHOLES OPTION PRICING MODEL2 A. Originally presented in: Black, F., and M. Scholes. (1973), “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities,” Journal of Political Economy 81, pp. 637654. 1. Assumptions of the Model a. ______ Capital Markets, i.e., no transaction costs or taxes. There are no short-sale constraints. Investors are allowed the full use of short-sale proceeds. b. All investors can borrow or lend at the risk-free rate which is ________ over the asset's life. c. The stock pays no dividends, thus the model can be used to value either American or European calls— since neither will be exercised before expiration. d. Trading is continuous and markets are always open. 2 This section is based on my tOSU 920b lecture notes written by Professor Rene Stulz. 5 e. Stock price changes follow a specific stochastic process called a diffusion process, as given below: dS μdt σdz. S This formula basically says that the (instanttaneous) %Change in the stock price is equal to the expected stock return per unit of time plus the instantaneous return's standard deviation times the change in a random standard-normally distributed variable, z. 2. The Black-Scholes Formulas: C(S,T,K) = S*N(d1) - K*e-rT*N(d2), (8.5) P(S,T,K) = S*[N(d1)-1] - K*e-rT*[N(d2)-1], (8.6) where: ln( S / K ) (r 0.5 * 2 ) * T d1 = , * T (8.7) ln( S / K ) (r 0.5 * 2 ) * T d2 = , * T (8.8) = d1 - (σ * T ), and where: 6 e T r = natural log of 1, = time remaining to expiration in years, = continuously compounded riskless rate, = standard deviation of the continuously compounded annual rate of return on the stock N(d) = the probability that a deviation less than d will occur in a normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation equal to one. We need to find T, r, K, S, and (S). a. To find T, _____ number of days between today and expiration date (calendar days), then divide by 365. b. To find S read WSJ. c. To find K read the option contract (or check the WSJ listing). d. To find r, need to find the effective annual yield of a T-bill that matures as close to expiration as possible, then use Ed Kane Annualised DiscountBasis Formula to find Ytm. 360 * d EK Ann Ytm: rt,T = , 360 (d * n) (8.9) where: d = annualised discount asked yield, and n = days to maturity, from t to T. 7 e. (S) standard deviation of stock. By assumption, the continuously-compounded returns will follow a ______ distribution. All daily, (or weekly) continuously-compounded returns also follow the same distribution, i.e., they have same mean and standard deviation. If S(j) is the stock price at date j, then for “n” days an estimate of the mean of the continuously compounded returns is: 1 n 1 S ( j 1) . ̂ = * ln n j 0 S ( j) (8.10) Furthermore an unbiased estimate of the standard deviation is: 2 1 n 1 S ( j 1 ) = * ln ˆ n 1 j 0 S ( j ) 1/ 2 ^ . (8.11) Past stock prices can be found in WSJ. How should n be chosen? Not too long and not too short. (Prof. René Stulz, Finance 410 Lecture Note #8, University of Rochester) If daily data we should probably use about 50 to 200 observations. If using weekly data try 40-60 weeks. If monthly data should probably use at least 30-50 price observations. 8 3. Now, an example. Ex. 8.2 Use the Black-Scholes Option Pricing model in F384_LN08_SS_Sp14CR spreadsheet and the following information to determine the theoretical prices for the Yum! Brands (YUM) Dec’07 Call (K=30, 35, 40 & 45) and the corresponding Dec’07 Puts. Assume a 365-day year, the options expire on 21 December, 2007 (i.e., 50 days), the ASK Yld for a T-Bill which matures closest to the expiration is 3.84% and that the relevant variance for the stock, 2(RYUM), has been calculated as 0.1134128 using the approach in equation (8.11) above. Determine the percentage by which these model prices differ from the CBOE option quotes below, from 1 November, 2007. YUM (YUM BRANDS INC) 39.08 -0.01 Bid N/E Ask N/E Size N/ExN/E Vol 5732200 Nov 01, 2007 @ 16:01 ET Last Sale Calls Net Vol Open Puts Int Last Sale Net Vol Open Int 07 Dec 30.00 (YUMLF-E) 8.70 0.0 20 0 07 Dec 30.00 (YUMXF-E) 0.05 0.0 15 18 07 Dec 35.00 (YUMLG-E) 4.60 0.0 28 104 07 Dec 35.00 (YUMXG-E) 0.35 +0.05 2 607 07 Dec 40.00 (YUMLH-E) 1.75 -0.40 148 3123 07 Dec 40.00 (YUMXH-E) 1.71 +0.40 71 259 07 Dec 45.00 (YUMLI-E) 0.25 -0.05 280 231 07 Dec 45.00 (YUMXI-E) 5.17 0.0 2 2 A8.2. Results for the Black-Scholes option calculations are shown in the Spreadsheet 8 excerpt below. First determine the effective riskless rate using the Ed Kane Annualised Discount-Basis Ytm approach (given in equation (8.9)) and then find d1 and d2. 9 360 * 0.0384 EK Ann Ytm: rt,T = = _______%. 360 (0.0384 * 50) Excel Eqn.(I52): (=H4) =(360*B4)/(360-(B4*D4)) 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 B Stock (S) d1 2.22611 1.58394 0.98938 0.43585 -0.08193 -0.56832 -1.02689 C $39.08 N(d1) 0.9869966 0.9433958 0.8387603 0.6685287 0.4673508 0.2849105 0.1522361 D Term(t) d2 2.10146 1.45929 0.86473 0.31121 -0.20657 -0.69296 -1.15153 E 0.136986 F.Y.I. F 2(R ) VARP(fn) G 0.11341280 0.11581568 Black-Scholes Option Prices N(d2) Strike(K) Call 0.9822000 30.00 $9.2612 0.9277575 32.50 $6.8748 0.8064072 35.00 $4.7034 0.6221797 37.50 $2.9174 0.4181712 40.00 $1.6254 0.2441677 42.50 $0.8119 0.1247564 45.00 $0.3650 H Rf Rate Call Quotes $8.70 $4.60 $1.75 $0.25 I 3.86059% Put $0.0230 $0.1234 $0.4388 $1.1396 $2.3345 $4.0077 $6.0476 The detailed calculations shown below are for the call and put with the $35.00 strike price. ln(39.08 / 35) (.0386059 (0.5 * 0.1134128)) * (50 / 365) d1 = , 0.1134128 * (50 / 365) 0.110262766 0.013056479 = = 0._____5727. 0.124643492 Excel Eqn.(B59): =(LN($C$52/L59)+($I$52+($G$52/2))*$E$52)/(($G$52^0.5)*($E$52^0.5)) d2 = d1 - (σ * T ) 10 = 0.989375727 – 0.1134128 * (50/365) ) = 0._____2235. Excel Eqn.(D59): =B59-($G$52^0.5)*($E$52^0.5) Next determine N(d1) and N(d2) using a Cumulative Standard Normal Table (or using the appropriate Excel function—which is much easier). N(d1) = NORMSDIST(d1) = 0.____603. Excel Eqn.(C59): =NORMSDIST(B59) N(d2) = NORMSDIST(d2) = 0.____072. Excel Eqn.(E59): =NORMSDIST(D59) Find the discounted exercise price as: K*e-(r*T) = (35)*(2.71828 -(.0386059)(0.136986)) = 35 * 0.994725492 = __.____922. Then the option prices are found as: Dec’07 Call(K=35) = (39.08 * 0.8387603) - (34.8153922 * 0.8064072) = $______ vs. quote(=$4.60), is _____% higher. Excel Eqn.(G59): =($C$52*$C59)-(($F59*EXP(-$I$52*$E$52))*$E59) 11 Dec’07 Put (K=35) = [(39.08)*(0.8387603-1)] - [(34.8153922)*(0.8064072-1)] = $_______ vs. Quote(=$0.35), is _____% higher. Excel Eqn.(I59): =($C$52*($C59-1))-($F59*EXP(-$I$52*$E$52))*($E59-1) The results of comparing the Black-Scholes calculated option prices to the CBOE quotes are shown in the following figure. Although some options appear to be underpriced by the model, most appear to be overpriced. The most likely reason is that the stock price standard deviation has been estimated on the “____” side. B/S Call Call Quote $9.2612 $8.70 $4.7034 $4.60 $1.6254 $1.75 $0.3650 $0.25 %Diff +6.45 +2.25 -7.12 +46.0 B/S Put $0.0230 $0.4388 $2.3345 $6.0476 Put Quote $0.05 $0.35 $1.71 $5.17 %Diff -54.0 +25.4 +36.5 +17.0 B. Interpretation of the Model In a risk-neutral economy the two terms in the B/S call model (8.5) have natural interpretations. The first term is the discounted expected value of the terminal stock price, given that the terminal stock price _______ the exercise price, times the probability that the terminal stock price is higher than K. 12 The second term is the discounted exercise price times the probability that the terminal stock price ______ the exercise price. C. Instructive Query Why does the B-S model use a measure of total risk (the standard deviation) rather than some measure of market risk? Ans: Simply because the option's value is highly correlated with—and responds to—the total risk of the stock, not just the stock's market risk. The question largely turns on what risky influences are supposed to be relevant and thereby priced. Due to diversification, in the CAPM only market factors are supposed to cause any change in portfolio return. Cannot diversify away non-market risk of an option because its return depends directly on one individual stock. Q: Will holding a portfolio of options diversify away nonmarket risk? A: ___. III. Comparative Statics of the Model (The Greeks) 13 A. The B/S Model may be differentiated with respect to its different parameters, S, T, K, σ(R) and r. These resulting relationships are a prediction of how the option prices will react in response to an incremental change in the option variable, ceteris paribus. B. Results for Calls C/S = Abs Value of │N(d1)│ > 0 = Delta = 1/β. C/K = -e-rT*N(d2) < 0. (8.12) (8.13) C/T = Ke-rT[σZ(d2)/2*( T )+rN(d2)] > 0 (8.14) = Theta(). C/r = T*Ke-rT*N(d2) > 0 = Rho (P). (8.15) C/σ = S* ( T )*Z(d1) > 0 = Lambda. (8.16) D/S = 2C/S2 = Z(d1)/[S*σ*( T )] > 0 (8.17) = Gamma(). Z(d) is the standard normal density at d. This is the incremental change in the standard normal distribution at d. It is equal to the following expression: ( d ) / 2 N(d) e Z(d) = = . d 2 * 2 C. Results For Puts 14 (8.18) P/S = C/S - 1 = N(d1) – 1 < 0 = Delta. (8.19) P/K = C/K + e-rT > 0. (8.20) P/T = C/T - K*r*e-rT > 0 = Theta(). (8.21) P/σ = C/σ > 0. (8.22) P/r = C/r - K*T*e-rT < 0. (8.23) 2P/S2 = d/S = Z(d1)/(S*σ* T ) > 0 = (8.24) D. The Importance of Delta 1. Delta describes the change in the value of the option for a small change in the value of the underlying asset (ceteris paribus). 2. Option deltas are often referred to as hedge ratios because they can be used to determine the number of calls that would be written or puts that would be purchased to hedge a long stock position. This was previously discussed in F384 LN #5 and the Option Strategies Handout. 3. Call option deltas range from about ____ for deeply out-of-the-money calls, to 0.5 for at-themoney calls, to 1.0 for deeply in-the-money calls. 4. Put option deltas decline from nearly ____ for deeply out-of-the-money puts, to -0.5 for at-themoney puts, to -1.0 for deeply in-the-money puts. 15 5. These delta characterisations will be illustrated in the next example using the results determined in Ex. 8.2. Ex. 8.3 Use the data inputs previously developed for the Yum! Brands Inc. Dec’07 options to calculate the Black/Scholes option prices and deltas for a call and put with a strike price of $37.50. Do this for stock prices ranging from $30 to $45 in increments of $2.50. A8.3. A facsimile from Spreadsheet 8 showing the results of calculating the Yum! Brands Inc. Dec’07 (K=37.50) Black/Scholes Call and Put option values as well as the deltas is shown below. As the actual calculations for the option values have been previously shown, they are not repeated. However, the Excel equations used here are shown for the case where S=30. 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 J Ex. 8.3 K L M Graphing Call and Put Deltas N Strike(K) O 37.50 Term(t) 0.1369863 2(R ) 0.1134128 Rf Rate 3.86059% Stock (S) 30.00 32.50 35.00 37.50 40.00 42.50 45.00 d1 -1.6855037 -1.0433306 -0.4487711 0.1047506 0.6225355 1.1089197 1.5674949 Call Delta N(d1) 0.045946 0.148398 0.326798 0.541713 0.733205 0.866268 0.941500 d2 -1.81015 -1.16797 -0.57341 -0.01989 0.49789 0.98428 1.44285 N(d2) 0.0351364 0.1214087 0.2831820 0.4920644 0.6907199 0.8375101 0.9254688 Call $0.0677 $0.2941 $0.8746 $1.9592 $3.5628 $5.5754 $7.8455 Equation to find d1: Excel Eqn.(K11): 16 P Q Put $7.3699 $5.0963 $3.1768 $1.7614 $0.8650 $0.3776 $0.1477 Put Delta -0.95405 -0.85160 -0.67320 -0.45829 -0.26679 -0.13373 -0.05850 =(LN($J11/$O$5)+($O$7+($M$7/2))*$K$7)/(($M$7^0.5)*($K$7^0.5)) Equation to find N(d1) and B/S Call Delta: Excel Eqn.(L11): =NORMSDIST(K11) Equation to find d2: Excel Eqn.(M11): =$K11-($M$7^0.5)*($K$7^0.5) Equation to find N(d2): Excel Eqn.(N11): =NORMSDIST(M11) Equation to find B/S Call Price: Excel Eqn.(O11): =($J11*$L11)-(($O$5*EXP(-$O$7*$K$7))*$N11) Equation to find B/S Put Price: Excel Eqn.(P11): =($J11*($L11-1))-($O$5*EXP(-$O$7*$K$7))*($N11-1) Equation to find B/S Put Delta: Excel Eqn.(Q11): =L11-1 Below you will find the graphs created using an X-Y type graph where Stock Price is the X-variable and Delta is the Y-variable. 17 Call Option Deltas 1.000 Delta 0.800 0.600 0.400 0.200 0.000 $30.0 $32.5 $35.0 $37.5 $40.0 $42.5 Stock Price $45.0 Call Delta Put Option Deltas Delta 0.000 $30.0 -0.200 $32.5 $35.0 $37.5 $40.0 $42.5 $45.0 -0.400 -0.600 -0.800 -1.000 Stock Price P ut Delt a 18