Course on Conflict Sensitivity and Peacebuilding in UNICEF
Causal Analysis
1. Rationale
Classifying the existing and potential causes of conflict and understanding their different
nature and dynamics is the second fundamental step of the Conflict Analysis. If the
Situation Analysis is the “photograph” of a given national or regional context, the Root
Causes Analysis provides its “X-rays”.
Conflicts are never mono-causal phenomena, and they never affect only one single
dimension of the life of a country and/or a region. From this universally accepted
consideration we can easily understand how it is important to dissect the causal factors
in order to identify areas and methods for intervention.
2. Categories of causes
We divide the causes of conflict in three different categories: proximate, intermediate
and root causes. Also defined structural causes, root causes of conflict are those long
standing factors that may have been latent for a long period but are critical to address
systemic violence. Intermediate and proximate causes and are more recent and visible
causes. Intermediate causes generally act as accelerators of violent conflict while
proximate causes are those issues that can trigger or further escalate violence.
The interaction of different causes with multiple stakeholders contributes to define what
we call the underlying challenges driving the peace and conflict dynamics in a given
context. In a post-conflict situation, in order to identify potential areas for intervention
and subsequently prioritise them, we will need a clear picture of both the root causes
and the underlying challenges. The so-called “Underlying challenges” is a dynamic
and comprehensive concept of a sequence of events linked to proximate
intermediate and root causes. It describes the most relevant combined interactions
between needs and demands from the citizens; reactions, agendas and positions
taken by other actors, existing institutional frameworks and how they perform,
decision-making processes, solutions and mechanisms put into practice, and the
perception and impact of those measures and actions on the people's quality of life.
Some examples: National Development Planning Process, Constituency Assembly –
Reform Process of the Democratic State, Citizenship Participation in Public Issues.
Guiding questions that can be useful to identify the underlying challenges are as
follows:
Which of those underlying challenges are at the core of the debate of the conflict
dynamics?
Are there any of those underlying challenges close to a violent evolution or
escalation?
Do any of those underlying challenges touch basic structural issues of the
country/region?
Do any of those underlying challenges have clear implications for the stability
and sustainable development of the country/region?
Course on Conflict Sensitivity and Peacebuilding in UNICEF
3. How to conduct a Causal Analysis
Different methodologies and tools can be used to conduct a causal analysis. We suggest
here two different tools: the Iceberg and the Problem Tree. No matter what tool you
choose to use, start your analysis by asking yourself:
What are the main Proximate, Intermediate and Root Causes of conflict?
What are the key underlying challenges driving the peace and conflict dynamics?
Visual aid: Iceberg
One way to think about proximate and structural causes is to
see them in an analogous to an iceberg. 90% of the conflict
causes are under the waterline and because of the difficulties
to see this part (i.e. the root causes) them, they could be
potentially very threatening and harmful for situation
stability. Remember the history of the Titanic? It sank because
it crashed with the submerged part of an iceberg.
Based on the context identified, select the proximate causes
and place them above the waterline. For each proximate
cause answer the question: Why? What causes this? Continue
“digging” deeper until reaching root causes that are located
under the waterline.
Tool: Problem Tree1
The problem tree methodology enables to visualise links among different conflict factors
(root, intermediate and immediate causes). Later on, it will help identify critical priorities
that are directly linked to the causal analysis. The Problem Tree method is a participatory
planning method based on needs. The end result of this resource is a simplified
visualization of reality that enables a formulation of actions related to identified needs.
Steps of a problem tree-building include:
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recognition of problems through an inventory built upon participants’ choice;
establishment of a cause-effect hierarchy between the problems;
visualisation of the cause-effect relations in a diagram.
For more details on the problem tree methodology see PPT presentation “problem tree”