EBAY INC. (NDQ: EBAY) Analyst Report Anjana Radhakrishnan Student Managed Fund MBA 2004 Date: 25 November 2003 Sector: Services Industry: Retail Specialty Business Summary eBay Inc. operates a marketplace in which anyone, anywhere, can buy or sell practically anything. The Company provides a web-based marketplace which brings together buyers and sellers in an auction format to browse, buy and sell various items. Through its PayPal service, eBay enables any business or consumer with e-mail to send and receive online payments securely, conveniently and cost-effectively. eBay is the world’s largest person-to-person trading community on the internet. Its platform is a fully automated, topically arranged, intuitive and easy-to-use online service that is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week (subject to a weekly scheduled two-hour maintenance period), enabling sellers to list items for sale in either auction or fixedprice formats, buyers to bid for and/or purchase items of interest and all eBay users to browse through listed items from any place in the world at any time. Share Performance Price ($): 55.38 52 Week High: 61.60 Currency: USD Volume (millions): 3.208 52 Week Low: 33.05 Financial Summary For the nine months ended September 30, 2003, eBay Inc.’s revenues increased 90% to 1.52 billion USD. At the same time, net income increased by 87% to 304.7 million. The increases in net income and revenues reflect the increasing online transaction activities and Paypal acquisition. eBay Inc. (NASAQ) 2145 Hamilton Avenue San Jose CA - 95125 USA http://www.ebay.com NDQ: ebay P/E 78.8 Employees 4000 Shares 570.832 million Market Cap $ 31.5 billion Value line Beta 1.75 Timeliness 1 Safety 3 Technical 2 Financial B++ Strength Industry 3 of 98 Ranking Analyst Rating Zack’s Hold Moneycentral Hold Credit Suisse Outperform First Boston Prudential Overweight Pacific Crest Strong Buy Deutsche Buy Bank RECOMMENDATION: BUY # of shares: 260 Share Price: $ 55.38 Stop Loss: $ 44.30 Company Overview eBay Inc. (referred to as ‘eBay’ henceforth) is the world’s largest person to person trading community on the internet. eBay pioneered online trading by developing a web-based marketplace where buyers and sellers are brought together in an auction format to buy and sell items such as antiques, coins, collectibles, computers, memorabilia, stamps and toys. Through their Paypal service, eBay Inc. Facilitates any business or consumer with email to send or receive online payments securely, conveniently and cost effectively across 38 countries. In this trading place, the role of eBay is to create, maintain and expand the technological functionality, safety, ease of use and reliability of trading platform while supporting the growth and success of the community users. eBay Inc was formed as a sole proprietorship in 1995 and the company completed its initial public offering in September 1998. The success of a company like eBay is a function of the success of its users. This success is reflected in the growth of users from 2 million on December 31, 1998 to 62 million on December 31, 2002. eBay attracts buyers and sellers to use their platform by offering: BUYERS Selection Convenience Entertainment Value SELLERS Access to broad markets Low distribution costs Ability increase sales With the acquisition of Paypal services in 2002, the company intended to increase the velocity of trade on eBay be eliminating all the obstacles presented by traditional payment methods. The company is shifting its focus to geographic expansion by increasing its geographic reach to 27 countries by 2002. Net Revenues by geography International – 26% 26% USA 74% The categories of products offered in the eBay market place range from antiques to computers to cars and motor vehicles. Category growth, both in number and size are critical for creating a faster, easier and safer online service. In 2002, the company made significant successful investments to grow existing categories and expand the number of categories in the eBay market place. The fruits of this investment are seen in the 10% growth in the depth of categories and increase in the number of categories from 10 in 1995 to 22,000 in 2002. eBay’s value proposition is to make inefficient markets efficient by Providing a platform wherein individuals can communicate and exchange information and complete transactions at low cost Providing a wide variety and selection of goods. Efficient information exchange The removal of the existing inefficiencies in the traditional market is particularly beneficial to large markets with broad buyers and sellers with broad product range. The company’s main competitors are Yahoo (YHOO), Priceline.com (PCLN), Symantec Corp. (SYMC) and Amazon (AMZN). SIGNIFICANT TRENDS (GROWTH DRIVERS FOR EBAY) Currently, the company commands an estimated 88% market share. The company’s dominance of the lucrative, high margin, high growth, no-inventory business has resulted in a valuation for eBay that topped $18 billion. Building on its dominance, the company is now aggressively trying to capture the international markets. eBay will soon have 18 country specific websites. These international businesses are expected to reach on par with the business scale in USA driving the company’s growth tremendously. With a worldwide opportunity of $ 1 trillion, analysts believe that eBay has the potential to become a $100 billion company. (www.fool.com).The increasing appeal and popularity of online shopping has and will strengthen the eBay market place. eBay is increasingly focusing on its online business by acquiring paypal (sold payment operation “Billpoint” after the acquisition) and selling its fine art auction arm “Butterfield” eBay is rapidly adding business sellers to its portfolio (e.g. Sun Microsystems, Disney, Ritz camera and US Postal Service) eBay is adopting many “convenience initiatives” to make the website more customer friendly (e.g. “Buy it now” option to buy goods immediately, “fixed price trading” via half.com and “shipping calculator”). Continued expansion in the fixed trade market have aided revenue growth. On July 1, 2003 , eBay announced a 2-for 1 stock split effective on August 28, 2003. The management justified this step as a measure of decreasing the volatility of the stock and making the eBay shares more affordable to investors. This announcement was made when the company reported a 91% jump in the second quarter revenue. Prior to this, the stocks of eBay had split twice, once in 1999 (3-for-1 split) and then in 2000 (2-or-1 split). eBay acquired the company Eachnet in July 2003 to expand its market in China. eBay has also agreed to pay $10 million to settle the charges levied on Paypal (before its merger with eBay) of aiding illegal gambling. Paypal ceased its role in online gambling after being acquired by eBay. On November 16, 2003 eBay submitted a tender to acquire the publicly held shares of Internet Auction Co. Ltd, a Korean online trading company. Q 3 report o 41% growth in US revenues o 105% growth in international revenues o 56% increase in registered users o 69% increase in GAAP net income RECENT NEWS Accenture helps companies sell inventories on eBay (DJ Newswire) Technology consultant Accenture hopes to profit from the explosive growth of online shopping by helping big manufacturers like Sony and Hewlett-Packard offload excess inventory on Internet auction site eBay Fulcrum Global Starts EBay At Buy (DJ Newswire) EBay Bid May Be Blocked (WSJ) Minority shareholders of Internet Auction Co. threatened to block eBay Inc.'s tender offer to buy all of the South Korean company's shares outstanding. Offshore investors and local shareholders said they would try to thwart eBay's move to delist Internet Auction unless the U.S. auctioneer raised its tender-offer price, according to Kim Joo Young, a lawyer representing minority shareholders. Last week, eBay said it would buy all of Internet Auction's remaining 6.39 million publicly traded shares that it didn't already own for 70,000 won ($58.53) a share between Nov. 21 and Dec. 10. The San Jose, California, company bought a controlling 50.01% stake in Internet Auction in February 2001. AT&T Files Patent Infringement Suit Against PayPal, Inc., And EBay, Inc. AT&T Corp. (T) filed a patent-infringement lawsuit against PayPal Inc. and its parent, eBay Inc. (EBAY), seeking compensation for alleged infringement of payment processing technology.Based on what it knows about the suit, the company believes the suit is "completely meritless" and plans to defend itself vigorously, the spokesman said. Computer Virus Attempts PayPal 'Phishing' Scam An e-mail virus designed to facilitate a PayPal "phisher" identity-theft scam is circulating among computer users globally.Though the virus, which first surfaced late Thursday, hasn't become a large outbreak as of yet, computer-security companies warned that it poses a considerable danger to consumers who may fall victim to a phony request for credit-card information from PayPal, eBay Inc.'s online payment unit. Growth Trends Revenues and Net Income 1400 1200 1000 Revenue Growt h (5yr) Revenue 120.00% Net Income 100.00% 800 80.00% 600 60.00% 400 40.00% 200 20.00% 0 0.00% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 EBAY Indust ry S&P500 AMZN REVENUE GROWTH (5 Yr) REVENUE & NET INCOME eBay’s revenues and net income has been increasing steadily for the past 5 years. The sources of revenues for eBay are fees associated with business transaction (listing, feature and value fees from sellers along with fees from payment processing), third party advertising (sale of online banners and sponsorship advertisement), end to end services (from contractual agreement with third parties) and offline services (seller commissions, buyer premiums, bidder registration fee etc). The upward trend in revenues could be attributed to increased transaction activity arising from increase in registered users, listed categories and gross merchandise sales. The acquisition of iBazar S.A. and a majority interest in Internet Auction Co., Ltd. In 2001, contributed to a 3% increase in revenues that year. 6% of net revenues in 2002 could be attributed to the acquisitions of PayPal Inc., Neocom Technology and 50% interest in an Australian subsidiary. Another major reason for the significant revenue growth is the fee increases in USA and various international locations. One would notice that net income as a percentage of net revenues is low in absolute value, though it is on an upward trend. The relatively lower net income could be attributed to the costs associated with development and expansion most importantly to high acquisition costs. At the same time the effort made by the organization to lower costs is reflected in the decline in technology costs and the resultant increase in gross margin for third party advertising and end to end services. YHOO A significant portion of the international revenues, net income and operating expenses of eBay Inc. are denominated in Euros. In 2002, the weakening of US dollar against Euro increased the net revenues figure by $ 11 million and the operating expenses amount increased by $ 5 million. Net Profit Margin Net Prof it Margin 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 EBAY Indust ry S&P500 AMZN -10 -15 -20 NET PROFIT MARGIN NET PROFIT MARGIN (Industry and Competitors) The 2002 net profit margin for eBay Inc. is much higher than that of the industry average and its competitors. The net profit margin for year 2002 for eBay Inc. was 20.3% while that of the industry was -16%. Over the past five years, the net profit margin of this company has been on an upward trend except in the year 1999. In 1999, eBay Inc had acquired many companies such as “Butterfield and Butterfield” (the merger related costs incurred by B & B were included in the consolidated statement of income of eBay), “kruse International”, “Billpoint”, “Alando”. The company incurred $ 4.4 million in merger related transaction costs alone. YHOO EARNING PER SHARE EPS The EPS for the company is on an upward trend 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 since 1998. The 5-year average growth rate of EPS for eBay Inc. has been 160.61%, while that of the industry was -11.21%. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Free Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Free cah flow is the measure of cash that is 400 available from eBay’s business operations 300 after the payment of interest and tax, for 200 distribution of dividends or for reinvestment 100 in business. The proceeds of disposals and 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 -100 acquisitions are excluded from this calculation. The steady increase in FCF can be attributed to proprtionally higher increase in revenues when comapared to increase in expenses and capital expensitures. Analysts believe that, in many ways eBay cost model is like that of a software model. i.e. most of its costs are fixed in nature. The technology, infrastructure, the essential support staff, brand marketing and promotion costs do not rise proportionally to the number of transactions ib the eBay’s network. The free cash flow for year 2005 id estimated to be around $ 600 million (www.netscape.fool.com) Dividend per share The company has never paid cash dividends on its stock, and anticipates that it will continue to retain any future earnings to finance the growth of its business. Financial Health Debt/Equity ratio Debt / Equit y 0.3 0.25 The debt-equity ratio shows how much a firm 0.2 has borrowed long term as a percentage of its 0.15 stock equity. eBay Inc.’s debt to equity ratio is 0.1 much lower than that of its competitors and 0.05 industry average. The data for industry, S & P 0 EBAY Indust ry S&P500 AMZN YHOO 500 was not available. Interest Coverage Interest coverage 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 eBay’s interest coverage ratio is much higher than that of its competitors and the industry average reflecting the low debt burden on the company. Another reason for this strong ratio could be the good cash flow the company has been able to generate in the past year. EBAY Industry S&P500 AMZN YHOO Management Performance Return on Equity (ROE) . ROE ROE 8 25 7 20 6 15 10 5 5 4 Return on Assets (ROA) 3 2 0 1 EBAY Industry S&P500 AMZN YHOO 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ROE = Income/shareholder equity eBay’s ROE at 20.4% is much higher than that of the industry average (8.7%) and its competitors. ROE has been increasing in the past 3 years. The dip in ROE in 1999 could be attributed to the losses incurred due to service disruptions. The company invested in “High System Availability” to avoid such problems in the future. Return on Assets ROA ROA 25 7 20 6 15 5 4 10 3 5 2 0 1 EBAY Indust ry S&P500 AMZN YHOO 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ROA = Net Income / Total Assets eBay’s ROA is much higher than that of its competitor like Amazon and the industry average indicating that the company has used its assets much more efficiently. This is often a good sign of management. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) ROIC ROIC = NOPLAT / Invested Capital. The 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ROIC for the year 2002 is 16.78%, while industry average ROIC is 6.1%. (www.globalfactiva.com) This shows that eBay has made very good use of its debt and 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 equity capital. Economic Value Added In the year ending (http://global.factiva.com). 2002, The the invested weighted capital average for cost eBay of was capital $3,570,271,000 (WACC) www.bloomberg.com is 8.74%. Economic Value Added = (ROIC – WACC) x Invested Capital = (16.78 -8.74) x $3,570,271,000 = $287,049,788.4 Market Multiples P/E Ratio P/E ratio EBAY AMZN YHOO Industry S & P 500 91.6 N/A 126.4 96.0 31.7 from The P/E ratio for eBay is lower than that of the industry and its competitors even though the market forces and economic trends are in its favor. This suggests that stock of eBay might be undervalued and its attainable price target is high. This view is also reflected in the “Moderate Buy”, “Hold” and “Overweight” recommendations of various analysts. PEG PEG = P/E ratio /Annual EPS growth The PEG ratio is 1.89 for eBay. This is much lower than its competitors. This could be an indicator that the investors expect the EPS growth to be much higher than the street consensus number. Stock Valuation Capital Structure 99.60% of eBay’s capital is from shareholders and the remaining 0.40% is funded through short term and long term debt. eBay has no preferred stock. This means that the company is not as risky since they do not owe any money. Equity Capital Structure Debt Capital Structure Market Capitalization = $34.5 B Short-term debt = 3.59 M Preferred equity = 0 Long-term debt = $133.95 M Common Weight = 99.60% Short Debt Weight = 0.01% Preferred Weight = 0% Long Debt Weight = 0.39% Cost of Capital The Weighted Average Cost of Capital for eBay is calculated under the following assumptions (based on Bloomberg): Rf = risk-free rate = 5 year treasury bond rate = 4.24% Rm - Rf = historical long term equity risk premium = 4.53% Long-term growth rate = 40.46% Country Premium = 5.11% Note rate = 1.90% Bond rate = 4.24% Debt adjustment factor = 1.38 Tax rate = 32.09% Debt Common Equity Preferred Equity Weight (%) 0.40 99.60 0 Cost (%) 3.92 8.76 0 Wtd. Avg. 0.0001568 0.08725 0 WACC 8.74% Intrinsic Value Calculation An intrinsic value/share is a hypothetical value of the company based on the sum of its future earnings. This value can be compared to a stock’s current price to determine if it is overvalued or undervalued. The Intrinsic Value for FDC is calculated under the following assumptions: R = initial earnings = $ 391,800,000.00 n = length of the first stage = 10yrs E1 = first stage earnings growth rate = 43.61% (www.quicken.com) E2 = second stage earnings growth rate = 6.0% (www.quicken.com) D1 = first stage discount rate = 17% (www.quicken.com) D2 = second stage discount rate = 12% www.quicken.com Discounted Value $14.3B Continuing Value $53.7 B Long-term Debt $134 M # shares outstanding 646 M Intrinsic Stock Price $105.10 Current Stock Price $ 56.81 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Intrinsic Value stock Price The above calculations show that stock of eBay is greatly undervalued. One must note that for a company like eBay with a market potential of one trillion dollars and on an expansion mode, the growth may be above the predicted norms. Insider Trading From www.wsj.com: # shares outstanding 646 M % owned by insiders 23.50% # sold in the past 6 months 751,571= 0.495% of insider shares # purchased by insider shareholders in the past 6 0 months As seen from the above table, around 0.495 % of insider shares were traded (sold) over the last six month period. The Company Board An "Independent Director" means one who satisfies The Nasdaq Stock Market Issuer requirements (or other listing standards which may be applicable) for independent directors, as they may be amended from time to time Name Occupation Independent Pierre Omidyar Founder and Chairman of the Board No Director Yes Maynard Webb Chief Operating Officer No Rajiv Dutta Chief Financial Officer No Director Yes Director Yes Director Yes Director Yes Director Yes Director Yes Thomas J. Tierney Fred D. Anderson Philippe Bourguignon Scott D. Cook Robert C. Kagle Dawn G. Lepore Howard D. Schultz Meg Whitman Jeffrey D. Jordan President & CEO No Senior Vice President, U.S. Business No William C. Cobb Senior Vice President, International No Mike Jacobson Senior Vice President, Legal Affairs, General Counsel No and Secretary Matthew Bannick Senior Vice President, Global Online Payments No Seven out of the 15 directors on the board are independent. Valuation Models CAPM model Risk-free rate (Rf) = 4.25% (based on 10-year T-bond rate on 11/17/2003) Market Return (Rm) = 7.25% (Expected return on S & P 500 for the five year horizon) Beta = 1.75 (www.valueline.com) Formula CAPM: CAPM = Rf + (Rm - Rf ) = 0.0425 +1.75 (0.075 – 0.0425) = 0.099375 = 9.9375% The expected return on eBay based on its risk and the prevalent market and risk free rate is 9.9375%. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE ROE (5 year average) 18.7% Retention ratio 100% Annual growth rate = retention ratio x return on equity: 100% x 18.7% = 18.7% eBay has been the better performing companies in its industry with phenomenal growth figures. The average annual growth rates for its competitors like Amazon have been negative figures. Growth Rate in Earnings Earning per share (1998) $ 0.01 Earning per share (2002) $ 0.43 PV = 0.01; FV = 0.43; N =5; PMT = 0 Therefore g = 112.17% Since the earnings growth rate have been a phenomenal 112%, I have assumed a growth rate of 18.7% (calculated by multiplying ROE with the retention ratio) for this analysis. No Growth Model Vo = Current EPS / K = 0.43 /0.0994 = $ 4.325 The current market price is $ 32.05, therefore ($ 55.38 - $ 4.325) = $ 51.055 is the value of the growth. This means that 92% of the value of the company comes form growth and hence it is a “buy”. P/E Model Average P/E for past five years (1998 – 2002) = (0 +0 + 0 +0 + 69.5) / 5 = $ 13.9 The expected EPS in 2003 = $ 0.70 Based on this data, the expected price in the year 2004 = Avg. P/E x Exp. EPS = $ 13.9 x $ 0.70 = $ 9.73 Based on this model the value of growth opportunities in terms of stock price appreciation is limited. Valuepro.net Stock Valuation Intrinsic Value $ 66.08 Growth Rate 35% This proprietary valuation model is based on observed historical data and growth rate estimates. According to that analysis the value of the stock is $66.08, which indicates that the stock is undervalued. The growth rate assumed in this model is 35 %. Risk Analysis Risk Factors Risks to Operating Results our ability to retain an active user base, to attract new users who list items for sale, who purchase items through our service or who use our payment services and to maintain customer satisfaction; our ability to keep our websites operational at a reasonable cost the amount and timing of operating costs and capital expenditures relating to the maintenance and expansion of our businesses, operations and infrastructure foreign, federal, state or local government regulation, including investigations prompted by items listed, sold or paid for by our users our ability to comply with the requirements of entities whose services are required for our operations, such as the credit card associations our ability to comply with the requirements of entities whose services are required for our operations, such as the credit card associations the success of our geographical and product expansion the introduction of new sites, services and products by us or our competitors volume, size, timing and completion rate of transactions on our websites consumer confidence in the safety and security of transactions on our websites our ability to upgrade and develop our systems, infrastructure and customer service capabilities to accommodate growth at a reasonable cost our ability to develop product enhancements at reasonable cost our ability to integrate successfully and cost effectively manage our acquisitions, including the acquisition of PayPal our ability to manage fraud loss and credit card charge back rates and the payment funding mix at PayPal the cost and demand for advertising on our websites technical difficulties or service interruptions involving our websites or services provided to our users by third parties (such as photo hosting our ability to attract new personnel in a timely and effective manner our ability to retain key employees in our online businesses, including PayPal our ability to expand our product offerings involving fixed-price trading successfully the costs and results of litigation the results of regulatory decisions the success of brand building and marketing campaigns the continued financial strength of our commercial partners and technology suppliers the level of use of the Internet and online services increasing consumer acceptance of the Internet and other online services for commerce and, in particular, for the trading of products such as those listed on our websites general economic conditions and those economic conditions specific to the Internet and e-commerce industries geopolitical events such as war, threat of war or terrorist actions Our limited operating history and the increased variety of services offered on our websites makes it difficult for us to forecast the level or source of our revenues or earnings accurately. We believe that period-to-period comparisons of our operating results may not be meaningful, and you should not rely upon them as an indication of future performance. We do not have backlog, and substantially all of our net revenues each quarter come from transactions involving sales or payments during that quarter. Due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting revenues it is also difficult to forecast income statement expenses as a percentage of net revenues. Quarterly and annual income statement expenses as a percentage of net revenues may be significantly different from historical or projected rates. Our operating results in one or more future quarters may fall below the expectations of securities analysts and investors. In that event, the trading price of our common stock would almost certainly decline. We are investing heavily in marketing and promotion, customer support, further development of our websites, technology and operating infrastructure development. The costs of these investments are expected to remain significant into the future. In addition, many of our acquisitions require continuing investments in these areas and we have significant ongoing contractual commitments in some of these areas. As a result, we may be unable to adjust our spending rapidly enough to compensate for any unexpected revenue shortfall, which may harm our profitability. The existence of several larger and more established companies that are enabling online sales as well as other companies, some of whom do not charge for transactions on their sites and others who are facilitating trading through varied pricing formats (e.g., fixed-price, reverse auction, group buying) may limit our ability to raise user fees in response to declines in profitability. In addition, we are spending in advance of anticipated growth, which may also harm our profitability. In view of the rapidly evolving nature of our business and our limited operating history, we believe that period-to-period comparisons of our operating results are not necessarily meaningful. You should not rely upon our historical results as indications of our future performance. While eBay has acquired smaller companies in the past, the acquisition of PayPal represents by far the largest acquisition by eBay to date. We expect that the process of integrating PayPal’s business into Anything that diverts our users from their customary level of usage of our websites could adversely affect our business. We would therefore be adversely affected by geopolitical events such as war, the threat of war or terrorist activity. Similarly, our results of operations historically have been seasonal in nature because many of our users reduce their activities on our websites during the holidays, such as during the Thanksgiving (in the U.S.) and Christmas periods, and with the onset of good weather during the summer months. We have historically experienced our strongest quarters of online growth in our first and fourth fiscal quarters. PayPal has shown similar seasonality, except that its strongest quarter of online growth has historically been the fourth fiscal quarter. Our international expansion has been rapid and we have only limited experience in many of the countries in which we now do business. Our international business, especially in Germany, the U.K., Canada and Korea, has also become critical to our revenues and profits. Expansion into international markets requires management attention and resources. We have limited experience in localizing our service to conform to local cultures, standards and policies. In many countries, we compete with local companies who understand the local market better than we do. We may not be successful in expanding into particular international markets or in generating revenues from foreign operations. For example, in 2002 we withdrew from the Japanese market. Even if we are successful, the costs of operating new sites are expected to exceed our net revenues for at least 12 months in most countries. International net revenues result from transactions by our foreign operations and are typically denominated in the local currency of each country. These operations also incur most of their expenses inthe local currency. Accordingly, our foreign operations use the local currency as their functional currency. Our international operations are subject to risks typical of international operations, including, but not limited to differing economic conditions, changes in political climate, differing tax structures, other regulations and restrictions and foreign exchange rate volatility. Accordingly, our future results could be materially adversely impacted by changes in these or other factors.