DFSC HP’S DESIGN FOR SUPPLY CHAIN TEAM Part Commonality Process Guide Design for Supply Chain Tools and Techniques December 2004 Version 8 Part Commonality Process Guide Version 8 Page 1 About the Contributors This document was produced with the aid of the following people: Jason Amaral, Stephen Bear, Brian Cargille, HP’s Design for Supply Chain Program Kathy Petty, Business Critical Servers, Enterprise Storage & Servers Katy Whitcher, Consumer Inkjet Printing, Imaging and Printing Group Copyright Notice This document is HP confidential, and may not be shared with parties outside of HP without express written permission of the authors and SPaM management. It contains proprietary information, which is protected by copyright and a pending patent that encompasses the business process and tool described in this document. All rights are reserved. No part of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, or translated to another language without prior written consent of Hewlett-Packard Company’s Strategic Planning and Modeling group. Version 8 Page 2 Introduction ......................................................................................... 5 1 Overview ....................................................................................... 7 How to Use This Book ......................................................................... 7 Which Products are the Best Candidates?.............................................. 7 Process Description ............................................................................ 8 Customizing the Process ..................................................................... 9 Time and Resource Requirements ...................................................... 10 Learning Objectives for This Guide ..................................................... 11 Ability to Initiate a Commonality Project ............................................. 11 Learning Objectives from Applying the Process .................................... 11 2 Project Initiation ........................................................................... 12 Core Skills ...................................................................................... 12 Team Lead ...................................................................................... 12 Mentor ........................................................................................... 12 Finance Lead/Modeler....................................................................... 12 Tasks ............................................................................................. 12 Obtain Sponsorship .......................................................................... 12 Define Project Scope ........................................................................ 13 Specify the RACI.............................................................................. 13 Problems and Solutions .................................................................... 13 3 Product Chunking .......................................................................... 15 Identify Product Chunks ................................................................... 16 Inputs ............................................................................................ 16 Outputs .......................................................................................... 17 Exit Checklist .................................................................................. 18 Determine Feasibility for Making Each Chunk Common or Re-usable ...... 18 Exit Checklist .................................................................................. 20 Summary of Product Chunking: Time, People, and Questions ............... 20 4 Cost Driver Analysis ...................................................................... 21 Summarize Issues & Evaluate Qualitatively ......................................... 22 Prioritize Cost Drivers ....................................................................... 24 Perform Rough-Cut Analysis .............................................................. 25 Evaluate Sensitivity & Validate Assumptions ........................................ 25 Present Results................................................................................ 26 5 Financial Modeling ......................................................................... 27 Architect the financial model ............................................................. 28 Desirable Model Characteristics ......................................................... 28 Example Financial Model ................................................................... 28 Whom to Involve ............................................................................. 29 Validate the Base Model and Assumptions ........................................... 29 6 Conclusion ................................................................................... 31 Version 8 Page 3 Version 8 Page 4 Introduction This document is an aid for Hewlett-Packard managers and designers who are evaluating commonality and reuse potential within a particular business. It provides tips on gathering data, performing analyses, and making recommendations. This process guide is part of the Design for Supply Chain (DfSC) information repository. These resources are intended for new product introduction (NPI) program managers, design engineers and managers, and supply-chain professionals within Hewlett-Packard. By using this guide, you can apply robust and easy-touse decision-making techniques to reduce supply chain and product costs, to maximize profit margins, and to enhance responsiveness. The ideas in this process guide have been developed across HP over the past 10 years. Our goal in creating the DfSC repository is to make these techniques accessible to a wider audience. This guide in particular addresses the problem of commonality. What does it mean to have common, reused, or industry-standard components? Should you consider them for your products? Commonality is the practice of designing parts to be shared across multiple products. Reuse involves the use of parts that were designed for a previous generation of the product. Industry-standard parts are those, which are available, off-the-shelf, or are otherwise generally available. This guide takes you step-by-step through the process of evaluating commonality and reuse opportunities at HP. We will also consider industrystandard parts that are common or reused. With increasing cost and time-tomarket pressures, it is often advantageous for HP to leverage designs across a greater number of products. Reduced design times help to avoid delays in product introductions, and the consequent lost sales. Easier demand forecasting translates into reduced buffer inventory. Industry-standard parts are usually less expensive, easier to find in times of shortage, and easier to resell of in times of excess. From a procurement perspective, value, cost, and price are easier to determine. Although commonality, reuse, and use of industry-standard parts offer many potential benefits, you should consider other issues. Commonality and reuse may increase material costs if higherperformance parts are “downward substituted” for use in lower-end applications (the excess functionality adds cost, but engineering doesn’t need it and customers don’t value it). A loss of product “distinctiveness” in external appearance and functionality could occur, making it harder to segment of product line, differentiate from the competition, and justify higher margins. We have identified what we feel are some of the key success factors in making this process work. After using this guide, you should have the ability to apply the principles of commonality and reuse within your division in a way that is most appropriate for your products and business conditions. Version 8 Page 5 Part Commonality Process Guide Version 8 Page 6 1 Overview This chapter provides an overview of the Part Commonality decision process, along with specifics on what types of products are the best candidates for commonality and reuse. How to Use This Book This book is a road map, not a cookbook. You will need to exert a fair amount of leadership and discretionary judgment as you guide your group through the process it describes. What this book will do is give you some guidelines for conducting this type of project. The instructions are supplemented with examples and learnings from specific commonality projects that have been done in the past. Related documentation and additional information resources are mentioned where appropriate. Which Products are the Best Candidates? Products that make the best candidates for commonality and reuse usually have one or more of these eight characteristics: 1. High design costs. Costs for prototype materials, tooling, and design engineering can't be shared across multiple products if they each use a different set of components. If part design costs are high, commonality may yield savings. 2. Strong time-to-market pressures. By re-using parts or switching from custom to industry-standard parts, you can reduce the time to design, prototype, and test new products. 3. Short life cycle. Write-offs from custom parts are a particularly acute problem for products with short life cycles. Thus, benefits from reuse will be more widely felt. 4. High demand variability. If demand is unpredictable, commonality reduces the burdens of forecasting, because Version 8 5. 6. 7. 8. there are fewer variations to manage. Part availability will be higher with the same inventory levels, possibly even allowing for reductions in inventory. High product fan-out. The more variety there is in the end products, the greater the benefit of making the underlying parts common across several product variants. Poor supply-chain responsiveness. Commonality makes it easier to switch between products quickly during manufacturing, without holding excess inventories of unique components that may be hard to obtain quickly. High material prices. By combining volumes for products that currently use different components, the cost of obtaining the new common component can be reduced. High support costs. Re-used parts often have lower failure rates—and thus lower warranty costs—because problems have Page 7 already been fixed in the previous product generations. In addition, the use of common parts enables fewer service parts to be stocked at field locations. Process Description The Commonality and Reuse Decision Process describes the major steps that we recommend, along with desired outcomes. The four steps are: project initiation, product chunking, cost driver analysis, and financial modeling. Table 1: Commonality and Reuse Decision Process Step Activities 1. Project Initiation 2. Product Chunking 3. Cost Driver Analysis Outcomes Gain sponsorship for the project, define owners and responsibilities, and clarify decisions to be made • Review and prioritize commonality and reuse opportunities for specific subassemblies and components (“chunks”) • Perform a rough-cut analysis of a particular decision or alternative (qualitative and quantitative) • • • • • • • 4. Financial Modeling Perform detailed analyses of decisions, including model validation and sensitivity analyses • • • Although we will describe these four steps as a sequential process, you can take several paths depending on your Step 1 Project Initiation Q U E S T I O N Step 2 Product Chunking Step 3 Cost Driver Analysis B D E Product Chunking Cost factors Qualitative issues Quantitative results Sensitivities Relative importance Repeatable process Cost analysis model/tool Model/tool validation Step 4 Financial Modeling Financial Modeling Project Initiation List of design chunks that could be made common Feasibility for each chunk project objectives. In the figure below, we show five paths that we have observed in practice, labeled A through E. A C Project scoping Decisions and alternatives RACI chart Cost Driver Analysis Financial Modeling Ex a mple Situa tion A: N ot recommended B: Rough-cut analysis C: Add’l modeling required D: Prioritize opportunities Financial Modeling Version 8 D E C I S I O N E: Systematic modeling Page 8 The first path, A, is one that we don’t recommend. This path describes a modeling project where a small group of analysts builds a big, complicated spreadsheet that is subsequently used to evaluate design alternatives. If done correctly (including appropriate data gathering, model validation, and sensitivity analysis), path A can result in excellent decisions and significant return on investment. In fact, several of us have participated in projects that proceeded along this path. Unfortunately, these projects also take a long time to complete – several months – and can try the patience of participants and sponsors alike. Complex models take a long time to build, become “black boxes” to decisionmakers, require a lot of data, and tend to “over analyze” many unimportant costs. For example, the same amount of time is often spent analyzing a cost that ends up contributing 1% to the result as one that contributes 50%. More importantly, there is a significant opportunity cost to this path; many more decisions aren’t analyzed at all. The groups conducting these types of analyses often get a reputation as “too slow to work with,” causing design organizations to make decisions on their own. We believe that paths B and C should replace path A, though both are underutilized today. In these paths, the team first performs a “rough-cut” analysis to understand which cost drivers are most significant. In some cases, the decision becomes clear after the first-pass analysis (path B). In other cases, more detailed modeling is required and justified (path C). We have observed projects taking path B that achieved comparable benefits relative to path A in one-fifth the time. Even projects that must take path C are usually completed more rapidly than those taking path A. As we’ll describe in the sections below, this is because the subsequent financial models for path C only focus on the cost factors that are truly important in driving the decision – everything else is ignored. In addition, the transparency and simplicity of the cost driver analysis accelerates intuitionbuilding and model acceptance on the part of the decision maker and the extended team. In paths D and E, a “product chunking” exercise is conducted prior to modeling the cost drivers. These paths usually follow a decision by senior management to improve commonality and reuse across an entire business. Chunking allows the team to review and prioritize all of the major commonality and reuse opportunities, before deciding which ones to analyze. Path E is usually pursued if there are a significant number of opportunities that are “too close to call.” A model (and in rare cases a formalized decision tool) can streamline the analysis process of many different chunks. Customizing the Process As we have implied, we expect that each business will apply this process somewhat differently. In fact, individuals may modify it over time as they learn what works best for them. Consider two examples of how HP’s Imaging and Printing (IPG) and Enterprise Storage & Servers (ESS) groups have used it to make decisions. During the economic downturn, Consumer Inkjet Printing (CIP) within IPG had focused mainly on cost reduction. As a result, commonality and other DfSC Part Commonality Process Guide techniques were de-emphasized. However, the priority began to shift back in 2002 when PhotoSmart products were on allocation due to shortages, while single-function printers were in excess. Business managers began to ask: “Can we quickly switch production between products?” and the answer turned out to be “No, we can’t.” The reason was that each product had unique parts with long lead times. This lack of commonality was a severe constraint on supply-chain responsiveness. Version 8 Page 9 As a result of this experience, CIP invested in a series of analysis projects and tools to better understand when and how they could share components across products (path E above). The outcome was a best-practice commonality process with an Excel-based tool to help quantify the trade-offs between different commonality alternatives. Because of the success of these commonality projects— including power supplies, paper trays, ASICs, and PCAs—demand for this type of analysis has grown. Another group that has applied commonality successfully is the Business Critical Servers (BCS) business within ESS. This group develops high-end servers for large enterprises. Because of system complexity and stringent performance requirements, development cycles usually last 2 to 3 years. In the past, supply-chain costs were not evaluated until just before product launch, much too late to influence product design. This was because many people in the business believed that the only factors that were important to them were product functionality, time-to-market, and material costs. Over the past 5 years, however, it has become clear that the supply chain provides a competitive advantage in terms of lower costs, higher product availability and better field service. BCS responded by creating a supplychain analyst organization, and by staffing all development programs with NPI engineers responsible for ensuring that DfSC is taken into consideration. As a result, there have been more than a dozen analyses of various commonality and reuse decisions (a combination of paths A, B, and C). Although these projects have usually focused on a particular question posed by the development teams, this is changing. In late 2003, DfSC was announced as one of the Top 10 ESS-wide supply chain strategy initiatives. Since then, ESS-wide teams have begun to focus on product chunking in order to identify commonality and reuse opportunities across the entire organization (path D). Some examples of successes include server racks, rails, cables, and DIMMS. Time and Resource Requirements The first commonality project often takes longer, because the team members are building initial expertise, learning the process, and forging ongoing relationships with each other. In addition, some managers and engineers must become familiar with the costs and benefits of commonality and reuse. We recommend that first-time project managers work with a mentor who can provide some consulting support and accelerate the process (see, for example, http://dfsc.corp.hp.com). While completion of the first rough-cut analysis (shown as “B” above) may take 1 to 2 months, subsequent analyses with the right people and enough buy-in should take only 1 to 4 weeks. Likewise, a chunking, cost driver, and modeling project (shown as “E” above) that initially requires 6 months can later be completed in about 3 months. Over time, you will develop robust processes and ongoing relationships with experts who understand what you need from them. You will be better able to define the decision, describe the alternatives, gather the data, and perform the analyses. Most of the resources you will need are not full-time; most of the designers and managers whose input you need at various stages will be called in periodically for highly focused brainstorming meetings, and can then return to their primary tasks. The typical resource requirements are: • Team lead - dedicated at least 50%, ideally with ownership for ensuring that the appropriate Version 8 Page 10 • • • • decision-makers select a course of action (versus a support role). Mentor - about 5% to 10% for consulting support. Finance Lead/Modeler dedicated at least 50% during the cost driver and financial modeling steps. Core Team - about 5% to 10%, a small group of people (about 5) who provide thoughtful input and detailed feedback on the key project deliverables. Extended Team - 5% or less, the important organizational stakeholders (usually 10 to 20 people) who provide data and input, and participate in review meetings. The core team should include key representatives from design, supply chain, finance, and marketing. These people should be respected across the organization, so that when final recommendations are made, the decision makers know that several trusted people have participated in and thoroughly reviewed the analysis. As described below, the team and responsibilities may shift from step to step. The project lead should also try to secure a limited travel budget. For project success, it will be critical that the core team builds relationships and conducts effective working meetings and brainstorming sessions. This is particularly true for the first commonality project with a particular group of people. Learning Objectives for This Guide The learning objectives for this process guide are the capabilities that you should acquire during the course of using this workbook in a real-world application. You can think of this book as a “lab guide.” A commonality and reuse decision-making project can take several months to complete, and these objectives are acquired through “hands-on” practice, rather than in a classroom devoted to theory. Ability to Initiate a Commonality Project Management support is essential to initiating a commonality and reuse process. After using this guide, participants will be able to: • Identify change-management issues that must be addressed in • order to apply the decision process. Effectively gain attention and sponsorship to establish the process. Learning Objectives from Applying the Process After going through the detail steps in this guide, participants will be able to: • Identify and describe the major steps of the decision process. • Describe the people and expertise needed to complete each step. • Identify the inputs and outputs for each step. • Describe the analysis or synthesis used to create the outputs. • Determine when each step has been satisfactorily completed. Version 8 Page 11 2 Project Initiation This chapter describes how to establish a commonality and reuse process within your division. We are going to assume that you have already determined that at least some of your products are candidates for commonality or reuse. By establishing a process, you will ensure management sponsorship and cross-functional support for prioritizing and evaluating opportunities. 2.1 Core Skills The core teams have tended to be small, consisting of one dedicated team lead and perhaps a mentor and a person with model-building expertise. It is recommended that you work with at least one other person, for moral support if nothing else. may also have modeling expertise and a detailed understanding of product design and/or supply chain processes. Mentor Team Lead The team lead is a dedicated person who drives the decision process. The team lead will bring in myriad subject-matter experts for most of the industrial design, manufacturing, and costing portions. To make the most effective use of these people, the team lead must be able to coordinate discussions effectively. This includes the ability to recognize quickly when a process isn’t working and come up with alternatives. This person should have strong skills in project management, leadership, facilitation, and relationship building. The team lead should also be familiar with the business division, the products, as well as supply-chain analysis principles and metrics. On rare occasions, the team lead In practice, having a mentor often proves to be an invaluable asset to the team lead. This person should have experience in completing similar exercises in the past. As we discussed, the mentor is unlikely to be fully dedicated to the project; however, she or he should be able to provide a high level of responsiveness for the team lead as a coach and reviewer. Finance Lead/Modeler At some point, it often makes sense to complete the quantitative analysis using a spreadsheet. The modeler, usually the finance lead on the project, is someone who has hands-on experience designing and building spreadsheet models. This person will definitely be required if the team decides to move beyond a costdriver analysis into financial modeling. 2.2 Tasks Obtain Sponsorship Successfully evaluating commonality and reuse opportunities requires strong cross-functional sponsorship. In our experience, even alternatives that are in the best interest of HP can sometimes run counter to functional metrics such as material cost, time-to-market, and product functionality. You will need a strong sponsor to help you marshal resources and overcome resistance. Version 8 Page 12 Define Project Scope As with any project, you should clearly define the objectives, scope, and deliverables. If possible, it is good to define the decision being made and the alternatives being considered. Although it may seem obvious, it is important that, for each situation, the project lead understands who will be making the particular decision and what his or her criteria will be. This will drive how you should conduct and present the qualitative and quantitative analyses. Remember, the decision maker’s criteria must be respected. That person owns both the responsibility of the decision and (we hope) the resulting consequences. • Who makes this particular decision? • What criteria will they use? • What qualitative cost factors exist that could “trump” quantitative cost savings? • Are there any immovable constraints? • What role do risk assessments and technology strategy play in commonality decisions? • Are people being asked to make a decision that goes against their personal performance metrics? • Who should be on the team? • Who should review the outcomes? Consulted: Group or individual who provides information that may affect the task or decision. Informed: Group or individual who is informed about the task or decision For each task there should be exactly one accountable role, and one or more responsible roles. As you progress through the various steps in this decision process, you may want to revisit the RACI and decide whether the roles are still appropriate. Problems and Solutions Retrospective Analysis? With commonality and reuse, people sometimes wonder whether they should apply the process retrospectively and evaluate a past decision. Although this can be instructive and useful, we believe it also carries the risk of creating bad feelings and undermining your ultimate objectives. If it is done at all, be diplomatic and constructive. Otherwise, people may get the sense that time is being wasted or that someone is trying to settle an argument. When faced with this situation, you should ask: “What will our organization do with the results of this retrospective analysis?” You may find that it is better to start with a current decision that is more politically palatable. Be Opportunistic Specify the RACI One project tool that we have found to be especially useful is a RACI chart. An acronym for Responsible, Accountable, Consulted, and Informed, a RACI chart is a simple tool for assigning cross-functional roles and responsibilities for specific tasks or decisions. Responsible: Group or individual who will actually do the work required to complete the task. Accountable: The individual who is accountable for ensuring that the task is completed correctly (“the buck stops here”). In some analysis projects, the original question turns out not to be worth pursuing, but along the way other questions occur that are more profitable. For example, the CIP team originally sought to create a common paper tray because the paper tray had identical functionality across most products. Although cost savings were possible, commonality had a significantly negative impact on industrial design (ID). The team therefore switched its focus to items less visible to consumers, such as ASICs, power supplies, and PCAs. The lesson is: Don’t require that your original question necessarily bear fruit. Version 8 Page 13 Just because an idea looks promising doesn’t guarantee that it will be feasible. There is value in approximating the costs for a particular decision. In the case of the paper trays, CIP management was able to assess whether the less tangible value of ID seemed more important than the more tangible supply chain costs. Additionally, even if an idea is not worthwhile now, your work may serve as the basis for something else down the road. Therefore, try to maintain an opportunistic mindset throughout so that you can pursue other avenues as they crop up. Know When to Stop Sometimes, you don’t need to go through the entire “process” to reach a decision. This guide has structured the commonality and reuse process into a series of decision points. After any one of these points, you can make a “go/no go” decision. Version 8 Page 14 3 Product Chunking This chapter deals with the first step of the detail-level analysis, which is to group the components within your products into the major physical building blocks, often called “chunks.” (For information and processes on defining chunks, see Product Design and Development by Karl T. Ulrich and Steven D. Eppinger, Chapter 9 (2004 Third Edition). These chunks can then be investigated to look for commonality and reuse opportunities. In some cases, however, this step may not be necessary. For example, if you are asked by management to evaluate a particular subassembly or component, you can probably proceed to the next step, cost-driver analysis. On the other hand, if a new product is being developed (or the team has concerns about priorities), it may make sense for you to proactively identify the best opportunities for commonality and reuse. Attempting to pursue commonality at the lowest component level would be prohibitive in terms of effort. Dividing the components into the right groups can be challenging, and will require initiative and creative thinking. For example, some opportunities occur by combining current subassemblies or considering common tooling. The figure below shows the high-level process for product chunking (including typical participants). Although it is shown sequentially, you should expect to iterate among the steps in this chapter to complete the chunking phase. In other words, discoveries made during a later step may cause you to re-visit some analyses or categorization made in an earlier step. A certain amount of refinement is part of the process. Step 2a Identify product chunks Step 2b Determine feasibility of commonality and reuse Step 2c Prioritize chunks for further analysis Core team Core team Decision Maker Architects R&D engineers Core team As we will describe below, the first step is to identify a set of design chunks that are used across products and across generations. Then, work with the engineers representing these chunks to understand the feasibility of making some or all of these chunks common or reusable. Finally, prioritize chunks for further evaluation based on the core team’s assessment of the difficulty of making the chunks common or re-usable (as approved by the decision-maker) As shown in the figure above, you will be seeking input from a variety of people during this phase, including industrial Version 8 Page 15 designers, electrical and mechanical engineers, and other subject-matter experts. A few general hints to keep in mind during this phase are: • Keep meetings small and focused. Don’t try to get everyone in a room at one time. Too many engineers can lead to endless discussions. • Keep discussions bounded and grounded. You will receive more meaningful answers when you ask specific questions instead of • general ones. Rather than asking “What if we had more common electronics?” ask “What if we made this PCA common across both allin-one and single-function printers?” Present R&D with technically feasible options. Getting buy-in from this group will be easier if you can prove you’ve already done your homework. For example, have 1:1 discussions with the architects to formulate the alternatives. 3.1 Identify Product Chunks A chunk describes a set of components that perform a specific function. For example, one of the functional design chunks identified for printers was the servo/motor, which provides mechanical power for moving the print head. Within each motor might be dozens of sub-parts: screws, cables, molded casings, low-level electronic sensors, and so forth. Pursuing a “plug and play” approach to the motor might work by treating it as an option that could be added to any printer in the same product line. Commonality and reuse would require taking the motor into account in all future product designs, and making sure that the motor itself is designed in such a way that it can handle the functional, spatial, and aesthetic requirements of additional products, including both current and future printer models. You may need to do several iterations to find the most useful groupings. You may re-define what constitutes a chunk based on what turns out to be feasible. However, by the time you exit the chunking phase, you should have a fairly solid idea of how to structure your analysis. Inputs For this step, we advise starting from something like a Bill of Materials (BOM) and then having a few brainstorming meetings with design engineers from different disciplines. Try to ensure that every part is covered, i.e., every part is assigned to a chunk, without overlap. Whom to Involve For many HP products, it makes sense to consult with a mechanical architect and an electrical architect. You need people who thoroughly understand the structure of the products, what the dividing lines are, and how the product is assembled. Involving architect-level expertise will also help to achieve credibility later on. It may make sense to work with each architect separately, and then bring them together to validate the chunking. Functional Design Chunk Brainstorming Questionnaire The goal of this exercise is to identify a master list of chunks that could possibly be common or re-usable across products. If the product architecture is modular, it will be relatively easy to identify the chunks. On the other hand, if the product architecture is integral, it may be difficult to identify the physical boundaries between chunks. You may need to create arbitrary distinctions. In either case, do the best job possible by asking questions such as: • What are the major physical building blocks of our products? • How do these chunks vary across the product line? Version 8 Page 16 • • • How are these chunks expected to change over time? What is the rationale for the variation? Can you separate out elements of the chunks that are—or could be— common? components that are in each chunk. Then ask them where these circles would be on another product. Outputs Problems and Solutions: Getting Engagement from Architects You may have difficulty getting engagement from some architects, especially if they don’t “get” the commonality concept right away, or have their own mental models of how particular components should be designed. If possible, try to find someone from the design area who has already bought into this way of thinking, or who has worked with HP’s DfSC or Strategic Planning and Modeling (SPaM) groups. You may find that presenting the architects with product diagrams will help them better understand your questions. Present some exploded drawings to show what the products look like now. Ask the engineers to draw circles around the Chunk Carriage board Main Logic Board Digital ASIC Analogue ASIC Power Supply Sensors Control Panel Servo/Motors Chassis Case Parts Service Station Paper Path Carriage IDS Trays Carriage Flex Main Wiring Harness Cables (other) Electrical Components Firmware Writing Systems The output of this step is a listing of design chunks. This list may change based upon the outcomes of later steps. However, because most product architectures stay relatively consistent from one generation to the next, this analysis need only be repeated periodically. In fact, if a commonality option requires a new architecture, it probably won’t make economic sense on its own. Output Example As an example, here is the list of functional design chunks that were identified when assessing commonality possibilities among the all-in-one (AiO) printer, the PhotoSmart printer, and the single function printer. Description Provides carriage logic, which controls pen behavior Provides printer logic, which controls everything else Printer’s digital brain, which manages logic Printer’s analog (dynamic) brain, which manages logic Converts AC power to DC input power Analog or digital, signal used to trigger a particular behavior Assembly of switches, displays, and plastic housing Provides mechanical power Structural component that links main system chunks Aesthetically pleasing parts that wrap everything up Provides maintenance to the print cartridges Moves media from an input location, past the print head, to an output location Holds print cartridges and provides datum for ink delivery algorithms Ink delivery system – refers to the mode used to deliver ink, could be tubes, foam, etc. Holds media in both pre-use and post use positions Connects carriage board to the main PCA Connects other EE components (typically control panels and other boards) to the main PCA Miscellaneous cables used to connect motors and other stuff Other electrical components worth considering outside of a specific chunk, such as the LCD Internal software Algorithms that control pen and paper movement behavior Version 8 Page 17 • • Exit Checklist How do you know when you can move on? We recommend ensuring that: All BOM items are accounted for. Participants agree on initial list of design chunks. 3.2 Determine Feasibility for Making Each Chunk Common or Re-usable After asking what could be common in a theoretical way, the next step is to figure out what it would take to implement that commonality, and to assess whether that is really feasible in terms of cost, logistics, and other factors. Even if it is possible, it is not always desirable to make every design chunk common. For example, marketing may want to retain a visually distinctive product appearance. Therefore, industrial design is often a constraint on the commonality of chunks such as case parts and paper trays. For some chunks, it may be obvious even at this point that commonality and reuse are not justified. This step opens possibilities for innovation in design, either now or at some point in the future, based on functional similarities that enable commonality across platforms. Inputs For this step, we advise starting with the list of chunks, including how they vary across products and generations. You may also find it useful to have schematics of these products for reference. Whom to Involve At this stage, you should involve designers rather than architects, because you are interested in functional details. Include: • Electrical engineers (electrical functionality) Part Commonality Process Guide • • • Mechanical engineers (mechanical functionality) Industrial designers (appearance) Supply-chain engineers (operational constraints) Feasibility Checklist The checklist for this step (shown in Table 2) lists some features that would make a design chunk an attractive candidate for commonality or reuse. It probably won't be effective to make chunks common or to reuse chunks that: • Improve significantly in each new generation. If the functionality improves, it's unlikely that it will be reused. Investing in reuse would be a waste of money. • Perform a core function that is specific to one product. For example, fax and scan modules are unique to AiO products. Likewise, some exterior parts physically differentiate products from each other. After all, if every chunk were common, all the products would identical. • Form the “glue”. These chunks are the physical and electrical connections that tie a product together. Almost by definition, these must be customized for each product. Version 8 Page 18 Table 2: Feasibility Checklist Item Notes High-value chunks with long lead times Unique chunks have a big impact on inventory-driven costs and reduce the ability to respond to mix or volume demand surprises. High development costs, time, and risk Unique chunks squander limited resources for designing, testing, and qualifying. Problems here can jeopardize product launches, resulting in poor customer satisfaction, lost sales, and lost market share. High tooling costs Tooling is one of the most significant fixed costs that can be influenced by commonality. Unique chunks may prevent amortization of tooling investment across large unit volumes. Feasibility Questionnaire When interviewing your experts to identify potential designs that could be made common, here are some questions to ask: • What’s in this chunk? • What do all the parts in this chunk actually do? • What would it take to make this chunk common? • If this chunk can’t be made common, are there pieces within it that could be separated out (to create a new chunk) and made common? • What if we “over-design” the chunk to provide a higher potential for reuse? For example, by leaving enough space in an enclosure, it may be possible to accommodate the larger power supply or cooling fan that may be required in the future. Why Should we Make this Part Unique? It may be helpful to change the question you are asking engineers. Instead of asking, “Should we make this part common?” you may want to ask, “Why should we make this part unique?” In other words, start with the premise that all parts should be common, and then go through and determine which ones really need to be unique. Below are five typical reasons for making a part unique. 1. It is a “touch” part, and customers have different requirements. If the part comes in direct contact with any of the five senses (sight, touch, hearing, smell, taste), customers might have different needs and preferences in those areas. a. Sight: colors, styles, shapes, graphics, languages, etc. b. Touch: different tactile feels, larger/smaller buttons desired, different sizes to fit different size bodies, etc. c. Hearing: different volume levels, different tones / frequencies desired d. Smell & taste: bad fumes, toxic if eaten, (probably not big factors for most HP products). 2. The part directly impacts the ability to meet performance specifications. Examples include Version 8 Page 19 processor speeds, memory size, reliability, etc. 3. End markets have different regulatory requirements or standards that affect the part. For example, UL vs. CE marks, FDA vs. European medical requirements, 8.5 x 11 vs. A4 paper, 110 V vs. 220 V, U.S. vs. European environmental standards, etc. 4. The part is not expected to meet future requirements. For example, it will be discontinued or difficult to buy in the future, it won’t meet future regulations, or it falls below changing internal standards for quality or ease of repair. 5. HP wants to segment the market by differentiating products to serve various price points. Although customers may want a “Cadillac at Chevrolet prices,” companies often design less-expensive components to serve lower-end markets. Problems and Solutions: Current versus Potential Chunking It is important to remind engineers that “commonality” here is a functional definition, which may be different from what the component currently looks like. As we’ll explore in the next section, a significant enough cost savings may justify physically redesigning some chunks to achieve commonality or reuse. Exit Checklist How do you know when you can move on? We recommend ensuring that: • You understand which chunks could feasibly be made common. • You know what it might take to make each chunk common. • You have prioritized the chunks according to which seem to present the greatest opportunity for commonality and reuse. 3.3 Summary of Product Chunking: Time, People, and Questions One meeting each with a mechanical architect and an electrical architect. What are the major physical building blocks (“chunks”) of our products? How do these chunks vary across the product line? How are these chunks expected to change over time? What is the rationale for the variation? One meeting with the mechanical and electrical architects together Are all BOM items accounted for? Does everyone agree on the initial list of chunks? A series of separate meetings with 3 design experts for each chunk (industrial design, mechanical, and electrical) What’s in this chunk and what do all the parts do? Which chunks could be made common? What would it take to make the chunks common? Version 8 Page 20 4 Cost Driver Analysis By the time you reach this point, you should have either: 1. A list of design chunks which could conceivably be shared across products and generations, or 2. A specific common or reuse decision to make. Your next task is to characterize and prioritize the relevant cost drivers. The cost drivers that are both important and quantifiable can then be estimated in order to facilitate decision-making. As discussed in the next chapter, you may also decide to formalize the analysis using a financial model. A detailed explanation of conducting a cost driver analysis can be found at: http://dfsc.corp.hp.com/techniques/costdr ivers.html. We encourage you to spend some time familiarizing yourself with the resources on this site. In addition to a definition of the major cost drivers, the site includes a description of the qualitative factors to consider, detailed instructions on calculating the cost drivers (including formulas, data you’ll need, people to ask for assistance), as well as sample spreadsheets and an example cost driver analysis for a commonality decision. The flow of a typical cost driver analysis, including typical participants, is shown in the figure below. We find that it usually takes 2 to 4 weeks to complete a cost driver analysis. Just as with the chunking phase, you can expect to iterate among the steps in this chapter. Discoveries made during a later step may cause you to re-visit some analyses or decisions made in an earlier step. Step 3a Summarize issues & evaluate qualitatively Step 3b Prioritize cost factors Step 3c Perform rough-cut analysis Step 3d Evaluate sensitivity & validate assumptions Step 3e Present results (extend analysis?) Decision maker Core team N PI lead Core team Decision maker Core team Finance lead Extended team As described in more detail below, the team first brainstorms the pros and cons of the particular alternative (perhaps as informed by the chunking exercise). Next, for the issues that are important and quantifiable, the core team prioritizes the cost factors for consideration. The NPI lead and the finance lead then perform a rough-cut analysis, working with the core and extended team to gather data. Next, Core team Extended team the core team evaluates the sensitivity of certain parameters and validates the assumptions that turn out to be critical. Finally, the core team presents the results, and a decision is made either to select an alternative or extend the analysis using financial modeling. Version 8 Page 21 Problems and Solutions: Coordinating Calendars Because you will be dependent on other people’s schedules when conducting a cost driver analysis, you should reserve time on their calendars as far in advance as possible. At a minimum, this includes the decision-maker, the core team members (including your finance lead), and critical/influential extended team members. Your success and business impact will suffer if you don’t have the perspectives of these key people. 4.1 Summarize Issues & Evaluate Qualitatively After defining the decisions and alternatives under consideration, you should conduct a brainstorming meeting (usually half a day) with the decisionmaker, core team, and extended team. The objective is to identify the pros and cons of each alternative. We recommend that you evaluate each alternative relative to the cost drivers shown below and described on http://dfsc.corp.hp.com/techniques/costdr ivers.html. By becoming familiar with this website, it will be easier to identify the important factors. In addition, you’ll be able to refer core and extended team members to the reference, helping them get up to speed and avoiding prolonged discussions about how to estimate the costs. Much of this hard work has already been done for you. Priority High Pre Launch - TTM & lost margin - Design & NRE Production - Material - Inventory EOL - Service parts inventory Med - Tooling - Prototype - Qualification - Assembly, test, & rework - Expediting - Warranty & service events Low - PN and supplier management - Freight & packaging - Tax, duty, royalties - Take back & environmental Although we have prioritized these drivers based on aggregate impact over a sampling of commonality projects, you and your team should always evaluate each cost qualitatively to ensure that these priorities still hold true for your particular decision. Please note that these priorities relate to the magnitude of the difference between the common and unique alternatives. In other words, if a particular cost is high but nearly identical across common and unique parts, that cost category may be prioritized as a “Low.” In such a case, it probably won’t be worth the effort gathering the data and estimating the costs – the results won’t drive the decision one way or the other. High Priority Costs TTM & lost margin: Any delay in the product’s introduction will result in delayed and/or lost sales. If the R&D team decides to reduce product functionality (and list price) in order to maintain schedule, the result may be lower margins and/or reduced unit sales. Version 8 Page 22 Design & NRE: Design cost is usually comprised of two elements: design engineer salaries and NRE (nonrecoverable engineering) costs. Design costs can decrease if reuse or commonality reduces the number of new parts needed. On the other hand, design costs can go up if existing parts must be re-designed to accommodate commonality or future reuse. Material: Material costs are often a major driver when comparing DfSC alternatives. Commonality and reuse usually either increase or decrease material costs depending on whether the higher-cost part is “downward substituted” or the lower-cost part is “upward substituted.” Production Inventory: This cost driver includes the inventories needed to produce the products, both in anticipation of demand during ramp, and to satisfy demand thereafter. With common parts, you can hold fewer inventories while still achieving the same service levels. With reused parts, the inventory-driven cost rate can be lower, because obsolescence is less of an issue. Service Parts Inventory: Products that serve enterprise customers must be supported by a service parts network. Customer contracts include service windows for replacing failed parts, which may be as short as 4 hours for critical items. Achieving consistently fast customer response times requires that spare parts inventory be stocked at hundreds of field locations close to customer sites. By moving from two unique parts to one common part, for example, field inventory is often cut in half. Medium Priority Costs Tooling: Tooling can be a significant pre-launch cost, often in the millions of dollars. Reuse of parts—and the associated tooling—eliminates these costs. Commonality can also avoid the cost of under-utilized unique tools. Prototype: By re-using a component, inexpensive production materials can be used to prototype new products. In other words, expensive, custom prototype parts are not required. Qualification: Qualification includes mechanical and electrical testing, HALT (Highly Accelerated Life Testing) and other reliability testing, safety and RFI emissions certification, and DVT/MVT (design and manufacturing verification tests). Component reuse offers qualification savings for both cost and design time. Assembly, Test, and Re-work: Commonality can have an impact on assembly, test, and re-work if labor rates, times, and/or yields are different. Expediting: Expediting includes the freight, handling, and overtime costs associated with replenishing inventory after an upside demand surprise. The most significant cost is often the air freight charges from Asia of large and heavy items (e.g. enclosures) in order to meet delivery schedules. Warranty and Service Events: This driver includes material costs and support costs involved in replacing installed parts that have failed. Support costs are influenced primarily by how often a part needs to be repaired—represented by annual replacement rates (ARR)—and how a repair is performed—either by the customer (involves call center, shipping/courier costs), or by HP Services or a channel partner (involves call center, technician labor, and travel costs). Low Priority Costs PN and Supplier Management: This includes all of the indirect costs of managing part numbers and suppliers. Part number management includes setup, maintenance, removal, and IT costs. Supplier management includes procurement, planning, and purchasing. Commonality may reduce the effort (either through direct headcount or, more likely, through contractors) if parts and/or suppliers are eliminated. Version 8 Page 23 Freight and Packaging: Freight costs are important if there is a significant size or weight difference between the common part and the unique parts. Packaging costs could be reduced if commonality also eliminates unique packaging. Tax, Duty, and Royalties: Tax benefits are usually derived from manufacturing the product in taxfavored countries such as Singapore or Puerto Rico. By manufacturing within certain other countries (e.g. Brazil, India), it is also possible to avoid inbound duties. Royalties must be paid to the suppliers of certain products, such as software. Depending on the situation, commonality may avoid some of these costs or achieve some of these benefits. Take-Back and Environmental: This factor is not often considered, but is becoming important in Europe. It’s possible that re-usable and common parts will have a more significant after-market demand. Inputs For this step, you can start with the decision and definition of the alternatives. Whom to Involve Because this is a brainstorming session, you should pull together a cross-functional team including the decision-maker, core team, and extended team (design, marketing, supply chain, procurement, distribution, support, finance, etc.) You will want to include people who can appropriately represent each of the cost drivers, especially those of high and medium priority. Ideally, your finance lead will be able to participate in order to prepare for the upcoming analysis. Someone on the core team should be responsible for capturing the issues and synthesizing them for distribution. Outputs The list of the pros and cons for each alternative relative to the cost drivers. 4.2 Prioritize Cost Drivers Based on the results of the brainstorming session, you and the rest of the core team should meet for a few hours to agree on which costs to prioritize for further analysis. This step will help you achieve an appropriate balance between costs that are important and costs that can be quantified. As a team, you don’t want to waste time analyzing factors that are unimportant, or put undue focus on a limited number of drivers such as material and inventory costs only. When in doubt, it is probably better to err on the side of including a factor. We usually drop only those factors that everyone in the brainstorming session agrees are irrelevant. The next step will allow you get a better feel for the magnitude of the importance. Important costs that are difficult to quantify should be evaluated qualitatively, perhaps by verifying and extending the pros and cons identified earlier. Inputs The results of the brainstorming session and other input from the extended team Whom to Involve This step involves the core team. Outputs A prioritized list of cost drivers, including an assessment of which are quantifiable, how you might calculate them, and what data you will require. Version 8 Page 24 4.3 Perform Rough-Cut Analysis Working with your finance lead, perform a rough-cut analysis on the prioritized cost drivers. See http://dfsc.corp.hp.com/techniques/costdr ivers.html for detailed instructions. This step usually takes about two days over the course of a week. Your objective for this step is to get a sense for which factors and assumptions really are the most important in driving your decision. This understanding will help you focus your energies in gathering data, refining your analysis, and performing sensitivity analyses. Inputs The qualitative assessment of the extended team, the prioritized list of cost drivers, data as collected from across the business, and calculation techniques from the DfSC website. Whom to Involve This step involves you and the finance lead, with the help of the core and extended team to collect data. Outputs A first-pass analysis of the alternatives for each of the prioritized cost drivers. Problems and Solutions: Experience Curves Sometimes you may want to prioritize parts from among a long list before performing a cost driver analysis. In this case, the concept of experience curves may be useful. For more information, see http://dfsc.corp.hp.com/techniques/costdr ivers.html and click on “material” (in “High –Production” cell). Just as you can use these curves to estimate reductions in supplier material prices as unit volumes increase (via commonality/reuse), you can apply them to total part costs across the supply chain and product lifecycle. In other words, you assume that all the costs—material, design, tooling, inventory, expediting, service parts, etc.—decrease in aggregate at a constant rate per doubling of volume. Because there are many assumptions embedded in the “rate per doubling” that you choose, we believe you should next perform a cost driver analysis on the highest priority parts. Otherwise, you will lose granularity and risk oversimplifying your commonality or reuse decision. 4.4 Evaluate Sensitivity & Validate Assumptions This step is one of the most important in a cost driver analysis. Focusing on the costs that drive the analysis, you should critically evaluate the data and assumptions that you used, and perform sensitivity analysis on the input variables. This will help both you and the decisionmaker to feel comfortable about the final recommendations. For example, the results of the roughcut analysis may be driven by a time-tomarket delay of 1 week, and a material cost difference of $10 per unit. It’s important to test the robustness of the answer by recalculating the costs using different, but feasible assumptions. Could an additional engineer eliminate the time-to-market delay? What if the delay is 2 weeks instead of 1 week? What if you are 1 week earlier to market? What if the material cost difference is only $5 per unit? This step is about two days’ worth of work that usually occurs over the course of a week. However, you may be able to do steps 3c and 3d simultaneously in order to save some time. Version 8 Page 25 Inputs about a day; this allows you and the finance lead enough time to gather additional data and recalculate the costs. The first-pass analysis and feedback from the core and extended team on the important cost factors. Outputs Whom to Involve Validation of the most important assumptions, a sensitivity analysis of the key parameters, and a recommendation as agreed to by the core team. After performing some initial sensitivity analysis, you will probably want to have a couple of 2-hour meetings with the core team. It is good if these are separated by 4.5 Present Results After organizing your analysis into some presentation format, you should review it with the decision-maker and extended team. Don’t forget to include the qualitative assessments – they are often just as important as the quantitative results. It is during the presentation that you will be reminded of the value of having core team members who are respected by the entire organization. When tough questions come up during the presentation (which they will), you will be backed up by people trusted by the decision-maker. If, for whatever reason, you don’t have these key thought leaders on the core team, don’t despair. At some point before the presentation, meet with these few people one at a time, together with your finance lead, and step through your results. Understand their concerns and make sure you follow-up on any issues they raise. One of three things usually happens in these main presentation meetings: 1. A decision is made. 2. A tentative decision is made, pending follow-up on a few questions and recalculation of a few numbers. 3. The decision is “too close to call” based on the cost driver analysis, but making the right choice is important to the organization. The decision-maker sponsors a subsequent project phase to model the financials in more detail. Inputs The cost driver analysis, including qualitative factors, as well as the estimated costs and sensitivity analyses. Whom to Involve The decision-maker, core, and extended teams. Depending on the complexity of the decision, you will probably want to schedule a 1 to 2 hour meeting. Outputs A decision (perhaps pending some follow-up) either to close the project or extend it to perform financial modeling. Version 8 Page 26 5 Financial Modeling In this chapter, we provide guidelines on developing and validating a financial analysis model. As described above, this step is usually conducted if three conditions are met: 1. Management is not able to make a decision based on results from the cost driver analysis, 2. Making the right decision is important and valuable to the organization, and 3. The most significant open issues relate to quantitative (versus qualitative) factors. You should know, however, that building a financial model is no small undertaking. It typically requires 2 to 4 months of effort by a core team of about 3 people at 30% to 50% time (a project lead, a financial analyst / model builder, and a supply chain engineer). The commitment of the extended team must also increase (to about 15%), because much more data and validation are Step 4a Architect and build model Step 4b Gather data and validate base model cost driver analysis (steps 4d and 4e and much of step 4b), we won’t repeat ourselves. Instead, we’ll focus on the important differences that you should consider. If you decide to create a required. It also requires additional review meetings with the sponsor. In special situations, the team may also decide to build a generic analysis “tool.” This is a type of financial model that is expected to be reused for analyzing similar decisions in the future. However, before making this level of investment, we would encourage you to perform several analyses using only cost drivers and, if necessary, custom financial models. In our experience, it is very difficult to build a tool that is flexible and robust enough to analyze a sufficient number of future decisions to justify the investment. When they are actually built, such tools are usually extremely complex and require significant data and skills to use. As a result, they may be applied inappropriately and become mistrusted by management and R&D. A high-level process flow is show below. Because several of the steps are similar to the Step 4d Evaluate sensitivity & validate assumptions Step 4e Present results (extend analysis?) reusable decision tool, additional steps are required, including requirements gathering, quality testing, and user training. Please contact SPaM for more information http://spam.corp.hp.com. Version 8 Page 27 5.1 Architect the financial model At this point you’re ready to begin building your model. During the course of this exercise, you may find it necessary to re-visit some of the cost drivers and their characterizations from the previous phase. Although the costs and benefits of some commonality decisions will be obvious after completing the last step, some teams will decide that they must build a more detailed financial model. Such a model goes beyond simply putting the cost driver analysis in a spreadsheet. A financial model considers more realistic calculations of—and interactions between—the various costs that are particular to your situation. A decision support model will make it easier for you to effectively and appropriately compare each alternative. A financial model is especially required if the team believes that some of the simplifying assumptions made by the cost driver analysis are invalid for your situation. Desirable Model Characteristics We recommend that your model have the following features: • Scenario-based. A “scenario” is essentially a re-creation or simulation of a particular set of circumstances. Some scenarios use the same variables with different values. Others turn “on” or “off” particular variables or alternatives. Scenario analysis allows you to compare and contrast the outcomes and test how sensitive your costs are to different assumptions. • Simple to use. Your analysis will be more readily accepted by management and the extended team if they can understand the model, and even use it to test out some of their own scenarios. Ease of use is especially critical if you have decided to develop a tool and want to achieve broad acceptance. • Easy to modify. Give yourself flexibility for making changes and upgrades. If you don’t, you'll be doing a lot of time consuming rework. In the course of your analysis, you’ll discover changes that you’ll want to make to the model. To enable flexibility, we recommend that you make the calculations as modular and intuitive as possible. Not only will this reduce the chance of calculation errors, it will also save you time in the end. Tightly interwoven formulas using hard coded variables and cell numbers (instead of names) can be nearly impossible to untangle and modify. Example Financial Model Over a period of two years, CIP developed advanced commonality decision-making capabilities. It conducted product chunking sessions, performed several cost driver analyses, built multiple financial models, and finally created a reusable decision tool. The tool is specific to common versus unique decisions for inkjet printers and can be applied across a broad range of product families (e.g. single function, AiO, and PhotoSmart) and part types (e.g. power supplies, paper trays, PCAs, and LCDs). We’ll describe it here in some detail, because it provides an excellent example of how to architect a financial model, whether or not you decide to formalize it into a tool. The CIP tool is a set of Excel spreadsheets that convert user-entered data for part-selection scenarios into total cost comparisons. It also has sensitivity analysis to ensure robustness of the recommendations. The primary user of the tool is the supply chain analyst who created it, though other users include production engineering, procurement, design engineering, and design-for-variety Version 8 Page 28 analysts. The users are scattered across regional sites in North America, Asia, and Europe. Tool Re-Usability The tool consists of four main spreadsheets: • Input. This portion includes direct material cost, engineering resource investment, outsourcing costs, and planned production volumes for each alternative. • Intermediate Calculations. This portion allows the user to identify which unique parts can be combined into common parts. It also contains default values for WOS, scrap, salvage value, and inventory-driven cost rate. • Sensitivity. This spreadsheet allows users to perform sensitivity analysis on the default values, including product volumes, direct material cost, inventory management plans (WOS and scrap rates). It also considers the impact of expediting components via air shipments as opposed to slower methods of transport. • Results. This spreadsheet shows the resulting costs of the various scenarios. Some readers may wonder whether they can reuse models from other projects, although these models were only intended for a one-off analysis. As we mentioned above, model reusability is difficult to achieve even if the team sets out to build a tool. Generally, our experience suggests the calculations of most models end up being quite different from one another. Rather than frustrate yourself trying to adapt another project’s model for your needs, most likely you are better off doing a quick prototype and then developing your own custom model. Of course, we encourage you to learn from other people’s models. This is very instructive, and we do it ourselves. Whom to Involve During financial modeling, you will want to maintain a similar core and extended team structure. The members should be selected depending on the cost factors that are most important to evaluate. In addition, if you are building a tool, you will want to work closely with the potential users. Firstly, their feedback will help you develop something that is easier to use. Secondly, the experience of interacting with multiple users will help you understand whether the decisions and use cases are similar enough to enable the successful creation of a reusable tool. 5.2 Validate the Base Model and Assumptions For model development, you will most likely go through a crude prototyping stage and then a second round for refinement. Ideally, you should build a base model that is similar to the current situation so you can compare the results with actual business financials. This allows you to validate the cost algorithms and output with the respective owners, uncovering faulty assumptions and incorrect formulas. For example, review predicted assembly costs with the production engineers and warranty costs with the support organization. The goal is not to simulate reality, but to get close enough to provide you and others with confidence in the model. As you review the model with the respective cost owners, you may want to ask questions like the following: • Are the right things in the model? • Does our approach make sense to you? • Are there situations when our assumptions become invalid? Version 8 Page 29 • • Are we using the correct default values for the variables? What is the typical range (low value, average value, high value)? Are the results similar to what you’ve experienced in the past? After building your model and refining your initial prototype, you will want to analyze the decision alternatives with the key stakeholders. If you skip this validation step, your recommendations may not carry much weight. The following is a process that you might consider: • Use the model to analyze the initial decision (including scenarios and sensitivity analyses). • Perform a walkthrough of the model with key stakeholders. This should include a discussion of the assumptions and calculations. • Perform a qualitative assessment to ensure that the important factors are considered. At this stage, the team can also decide whether it’s worth the effort (or even possible) to model these “important” but “hard to quantify” drivers. Whom to Involve in Validation This step should involve all key stakeholders, which typically include R&D, marketing, supply chain, distribution, and support. Validate In Person When going through the validation process, we strongly recommend that you have face-to-face meetings to explain the model. Especially in the case of a tool, you can expect some level of “thrashing.” Your personal attention will help to contain this, and move people past their initial struggles and on to a sense of mastery. In-person contact also allows you to build partnerships and receive more useful feedback and ideas for future development. Historical versus Face Validation There are two main types of model validation, called “historical validation” and “face validation.” With historical validation, the team enters historical data and scenarios into the model, and compares the outputs with historical financial results. Most supply chain modeling projects use historical validation to check calculations and assumptions. On the other hand, with face validation, the team enters “typical” values and assesses whether the outputs seem reasonable at “face value.” If you’re able to perform historical validation for your DfSC analysis, by all means do so. This will improve the credibility of your model. However, historical validation can be difficult with DfSC projects because of a lack of relevant data and comparison results. If you’re looking at new product architectures or new market regions, your model assumptions and structure may not support a historical analysis, or doing one may not help you assess the applicability in the new situation. With DfSC, we often perform face validation. The key is to try different, but familiar scenarios and ask the core team and other experts whether the output seems consistent with their experiences. Version 8 Page 30 6 Conclusion We hope that you are able to benefit from this process guide as you lead commonality and reuse projects for your business. Overall, we believe that this process is a powerful and systematic approach that helps people to develop intuition around key business decisions. With a process that everyone buys into, you will find that decisions get made more quickly and then “stay made.” You won’t hear as many people say “let’s revisit this decision one more time….” More importantly, we find that better decision processes lead to better decisions and ultimately better business results. Good luck, and let us know what you learn along the way. Version 8 Page 31