LONG-TERM IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY-ENVIRONMENTAL
SCENARIOS FOR THAILAND
Srichattra Chaivongvilan
Doctoral candidate, Energy Planning and Policy Program, University of Technology, Sydney
Tel: +61 2 9514 2631, Email: schaivon@eng.uts.edu.au
Deepak Sharma
Director, Energy Planning and Policy Program, University of Technology, Sydney
Tel: +61 2 9514 2422, E-mail: Deepak.Sharma@uts.edu.au
Overview
Thailand is a developing country, with a rapidly growing demand for energy. With limited indigenous energy resources,
Thailand is appreciably dependent on imported energy. Such dependency has significant energy security and economic
consequences for the country. The task of meeting future energy needs of the nation is therefore likely to be rather challenging.
The enormity of this challenge has been compounded by the ongoing concerns about global warming, and the contribution of
energy sector to such warming (Chaivongvilan et al. 2008). In order to address this challenge, the Thai government has, over
the past two decades or so, undertaken a suite of policy measures, focusing on, for example, promoting efficient use of energy,
and reducing emissions and dependency on energy imports. This paper investigates the long-term (energy) impacts of
alternative energy policies (with specific emphases on renewable and nuclear energy policies), using a scenario-based method.
The three scenarios developed in this paper encompass different story lines for major energy parameters, energy technologies,
and energy efficiency and environmental policies and plans. The impacts are assessed in terms of the changes in primary energy
supply mix, energy import dependency, and the fuel shares in the power sector.
Methods
This study employs a dynamic linear programming model, namely, MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives
and their General Environmental Impacts). Originally developed by the International Institute for Applied System Analysis
(IIASA), MESSAGE has been used extensively in the past three decades in global, regional, national, and sectoral setting for
analysing a variety of energy issues. In this model, the objective function emphasises the minimization of total energy system
cost, subject to a set of pre-specified constraints. The model determines the feasible least-cost solution of energy supply/energy
technology for satisfying future energy demands corresponding to each scenario (IAEA 2007). The required database for
MESSAGE includes details of energy types, energy technologies, and energy related parameters (e.g., prices, availability,
bounds on activity, etc.).This database was established for this study from a variety of sources including, DEDE (2005), EGAT
(2008), Thasnes (2007), and Shrestha et al. (2007). In addition, Tiyapun (2008) was used as the basis for the data on energy
demand forecasts, and other exogeneous varaibles. Based on these data sets, a Reference Energy System (RES) was developed
in this study for representing the entire energy system of Thailand in terms of its interrelationships and inter-dependencies.
The future energy impacts are estimated in this paper for three long-term alternative energy-policy scenarios, namely, Businessas-usual (BAU), Nuclear Power (NP), and Renewable Energy (RE).
Results and Conclusions
Select results obtained from the modelling (as noted above) are presented in Table 1 and Figure 1.The BAU scenario acts as
the reference case; it represents the continuity of the current energy trends and policies to the year 2050. Key conclusions are
noted below:
Primary Energy demand



By 2050, the primary energy needs of Thailand are likely to increase by approximately 4 times the primary energy
levels in the year 2007.
The shares of oil and gas in the total primary energy demand are likely to remain at the current levels while the shares
of lignite and coal are likely to increase.
The energy import dependency, about 60% in 2007, is estimated to increase to 80% under the BAU and RE scenarios
and up to 90% under the NP scenario in 2050 (Figure 1). The increase in energy import dependency over the study
period is due to the limited availability of domestic energy resources.
Table 1 – Primary energy requirements (PJ)
2007
Coal
Oil
Gas
Othersa
N&Rb
Uraniumc
Total
a
574
2120
1309
54
490
0
4548
BAU
2010
872
3658
1438
48
496
0
6512
2030
1721
4921
2284
49
606
0
9580
2050
3834
8111
5283
17
739
0
17984
Others include hydro, solar, wind, and geothermal
New and Renewable energy (non-commercial)
c
Uranium import
b
NP
2010
822
3658
1438
48
496
0
6462
2030
1544
5167
1982
49
606
132
9480
2050
2712
8510
3089
17
739
258
15326
RE
2010
728
2860
1438
49
509
0
5584
2030
1514
3082
2016
50
685
0
7347
2050
2756
4175
3176
19
923
0
11049
BAU: Business-As-Usual Scenario
NP: Nuclear Power Scenario
RE: Renewable Energy Scenario
Figure 1 – Energy import dependency (%)
Electricity
 In the BAU scenario, the country’s electricity demand is projected to increase annually by 3%, from 141 TWh in 2007
to 371 TWh in 2050. Natural gas is likely to maintain its dominant share in electricity generation mix, accounting for
nearly 73% of the total generation in 2050. The share of hydro is expected to decrease to 1% in 2050, while the share
of other renewable energy is likely to increase to 3% over this time period.
Concluding Comment
This paper compares the BAU results with NP and RE outcomes. This comparison provides useful insights into the energy
dynamics of Thailand. Of particular note are the potential tradeoffs that the Thai policy makers will need to mediate as they
endeavour to develop policies to redress energy-environmental challenges. The analyses presented in this paper provide
valuable inputs for the estimation of economy-wide impacts of alternative energy-environmental settings.
References
Chaivongvilan, S., Sharma, D., & Sandu, S. (2008) Energy challenges for Thailand: An overview, GMSARN International
Journal, 2, 53-60.
IAEA (2007) MESSAGE User Manual, International Atomic of Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria.
DEDE (2005) Annual report: Thailand’s Energy Situation 2005, Department of Alternative Energy Development and
Efficiency, Bangkok, Thailand.
EGAT (2008) Thailand’s Electricity Load Region 2005, System Control and Operation Division, Electricity Generating
Authority of Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand.
Thasnes, T. (2007) The role of nuclear power and renewable energy technologies in the long-term energy system development
of Thailand, Thesis (M. Eng), Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand.
Shrestha, R. M., Malla, S. & Liyanage, M. H. (2007) Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its
environmental implications in Thailand. Energy Policy, 35, 3179-3193.
Tiyapun, K. (2008) Thailand’s Energy Demand Analysis, Thailand Institute of Nuclear Technology, Bangkok.