POTENTIAL-PROBLEM ANALYSIS (PPA)
This method (part of Kepner Tregoe’s (q.v.) widely used problemsolving approach) is designed to provide a challenging analysis of a
developed idea or action plan in order to forestall ways in which it
might go wrong. See also: Bullet proofing and Negative brainstorming.
It is ‘rational’ rather than ‘creative’ in orientation, but as in many
creativity techniques, rational frameworks can provide an excellent
source of creative triggers if approached in an imaginative spirit. It is
closely related to some of the methods used in identifying potential
faults in complex hardware systems.
Because the effort required to carry out the analysis thoroughly is
likely to be appreciable, it would normally be reserved for the finally
selected action plan (or perhaps the final handful of options).
1.
Define the key requirements These are the ‘musts’: outputs,
actions or events that must happen if the implementation is to
be successful. Failure of any of these is likely to cause problems.
2.
List and explore all potential problems For each of the key
requirements you have just identified, list all ‘potential
problems’, i.e. possible ways it could go wrong (a technique
such as Negative brainstorming might help) and explore each of
them (a technique such as Five Ws and H might help). If you
have listed large numbers of potential problems, you may want
to make a preliminary estimate of the overall risk (see below)
that each problem creates, so that you can concentrate the rest
of the analysis on those that offer the greatest risk.
3.
List possible causes for each potential problem Identify possible
causes of each potential problem, and the risk associated with
each. Risk reflects both the likelihood of it happening, and the
severity of the impact if it did, so that ‘high likelihood/high impact’
causes present the highest risk.
4.
Develop preventative actions where possible It is almost always
better to prevent a problem rather than cope with it after it
has happened, so where possible devise ways of preventing
potential problem causes or minimising their effects. Estimate
the residual risk that might still remain even if preventative
action were taken.
5.
Develop contingency plans where necessary Where problems
would have serious effects, but you can’t prevent them, or
there is a high residual risk even if you do, develop contingency
plans.
B822 Technique Library
FUNCTION
Exploring
Defining
Gathering
Generating
Grouping
Screening
Prioritising
Planning
Full process
RESOURCES
1(–2) people
Large group
Brief
Extended
Facilitation skills
Special setting
Computing
PROBLEM
Personal
Multiple issues
Stakeholders
New product
Futures/plans
ANALYTIC MODE
Categorising
Causality
Checklist/table
Combinatorial
Mapping
Numerical
Questioning
Reframing
Scanning
Scenarios/views
Surveys, etc.
Uses experts
Voting
INTUITIVE MODE
Analogy
Distortion
Excursion
Hitch-hiking
Imagery
Kinaesthetic
Listening
Pictures
Relaxation
Role-play/empathy
Subconscious
Values
Verbal
Wishing
SOCIAL MODE
Ad hoc/covert
Anything goes!
Debate/dialogue
Game
Interactive events
Moving about
Networking
Nominal
Starter’s kit
Copyright © 2009 The Open University
Clearly the various quantitative estimates involved could vary from crude ‘High medium,
low’ subjective judgements, to carefully researched measures, depending on the
demands of the situation. A simple way to display the analysis is as a table, as follows.
Analysis for key activity: ‘Hand over to publisher’
Potential
problem
A:
Document
not
delivered
in time
B:
…
Possible
causes
1. Not
prepared
in time
2. Mailing
delays
Risk of
cause
happening
Ways to
prevent
risk
High
Switch
preparation
to our ‘A’
team.
Low
Hand
delivery
instead of
internal mail
Residual
risk
Contingency
plans
Allow generous
margin in
promised
delivery time.
Low
Minimal
Not needed –
risk acceptable
1. …
Kepner, C.H. and Tregoe, B.B. (1976) The Rational Manager, Princeton, N.J.,
Kepner-Tregoe, Inc.
Based on: VanGundy, A.B. (1988) Techniques of Structured Problem Solving, 2nd ed.,
Van Nostrand Reinhold. Technique 6.02, pp. 260–6
B822 Technique Library
Potential-problem analysis (PPA)