Scawthorn "Earthquakes in your backyard"
29 October 2015
"Earthquakes in your backyard"
Charles Scawthorn, S.E.
Visiting Researcher
Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, UC Berkeley
Invited Lecture, EPS 20
Oct 29, 2015
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Scawthorn "Earthquakes in your backyard"
29 October 2015
Outline
Self‐introduction
Brief history of post‐earthquake investigations
Purpose of post‐earthquake investigations
Earthquake effects
– In past earthquakes
– In coming US earthquakes
• Reducing Vulnerability / Enhancing Resilience
– In general
– In the Bay Area
• Concluding Remarks
• Q&A
•
•
•
•
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Outline
• give some examples from your international "collection" of surveys
• explain in general remarks what the most devastating consequences of strong EQ can be as the class is titled "Earthquakes in your backyard" it would be great if you can then focus on some examples from California,
• explain what we can do specifically in Northern California to reduce our vulnerability,
• and lastly, since you have been in this business for decades, assess if things here in California have been improved and if we are better off to deal with a big EQ now than we were 20 years ago.
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Scawthorn "Earthquakes in your backyard"
29 October 2015
http://peer.berkeley.edu/
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Lecture pdf posted here
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Charles Scawthorn
• Education
• B.E. (The Cooper Union, New York City)
• MSCE (Lehigh University, Penn.)
• D.Eng. (Kyoto University, Urban Seismic Risk: Analysis and Mitigation)
• Consulting Engineer (San Francisco, London, Tokyo) 1970s‐2003
• Dames & Moore
• EQE: Senior Vice President  $80 million / year global consulting firm, 10 countries
• Founded / ran Tokyo office 1995‐1998
• co‐founder EQECAT
• Projects all over the world
• Professor, Kyoto University (2003 ‐ 2008)
• Earthquake Risk Reduction
• Infrastructure Risk Management
• 2008 
• Visiting Professor (Stanford, UC Berkeley, Waseda [Tokyo], Beijing Normal University) • Research (NSF, USGS, SSC, WRN…)
• Consultant:
• government agencies (World Bank, FEMA, State of California…)
• Real estate and insurance entities
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Scawthorn "Earthquakes in your backyard"
29 October 2015
Disaster Responses / Investigations
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Earthquake Theories
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Scawthorn "Earthquakes in your backyard"
29 October 2015
1755 Lisbon earthquake
• felt across Europe
• buildings collapsed, many fires
and a massive tsunami
• massive destruction of Lisbon,
one of the largest and most
beautiful cities in Europe
• 60,000+ dead
• Nov 1: All Saints’ Day
• inspired Voltaire's Candide,
who ridiculed a world closely
overseen by a benevolent deity
"the best of all possible worlds“?
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1755 Lisbon EQ
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Scawthorn "Earthquakes in your backyard"
Date
Hazard
29 October 2015
Vulnerability
Risk
Event/Com
ment /
Other
Lisbon Earthquake – structural, urban planning and other mitigations developed, but don’t spread
1755
Schiantarelli quantifies damage
(Calabria earthquake, soon after Lisbon and with
greater losses, spurs some attention to earthquakes
1783
1811-12
New Madrid (US) earthquakes – no advances
1828
seismic intensity quantified by Egen (Belgian
earthquake), not much used however
1850s
Ft. Tejon (US), Edo Ansei (Japan) earthquakes – no
advances
1850
Mallet’s Map – lays out bands of seismicity, shows plate
boundaries and regions of high risk at a glance. Wellknown in seismology, doesn’t seem to have had any
effect related to risk
D.A. Sanborn National Insurance Diagram
Bureau established in New York City – growth in
development of fire insurance maps
1867
1874
Rossi (Italian), defines intensity scale
1881
Forel (Swiss) combines his scale with Rossi’s, for RossiForel Scale, with ten degrees of intensity (first scale to be
widely used internationally)
1880
Milne, Ewing, Gray arrive Japan,
build first good seismograph;
Seismological Society of Japan
founded (world’s first)
1883
Giuseppe Mercalli (1850-1914) improves Rossi-Forel
scale but still keeps ten degrees
1886
Exposure
Charleston (US) earthquake – good documentation including sand blows and building damage, but not much advancement of
science or mitigation
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Rossi‐Forel Intensity Scale (1883)
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Scawthorn "Earthquakes in your backyard"
1887
Mt. Hamilton and Berkeley
Seismological Observatories
established (first in western
Hemisphere)
1891
Lawson maps San Andreas fault
(but believes it’s a thrust fault)
1891
29 October 2015
Nobi earthquake – establishment of Imperial Earthquake
Investigation Committee (multidisciplinary); Fusakichi
Omori (1868-1923) surveys overturned stone-lanterns
etc, draws acceleration isoseismals, develops seven
degree intensity scale, fore-runner of today’s JMA scale.
Increasing seismic design in San
Francisco, use of bond iron, high-rise
buildings (q.v.. Tobriner)
1880s1890s
1892
Seismological Soc.Japan dissolved
1902
Adolfo Cancani extends Mercalli scale to twelve degrees,
with estimated ground acceleration values but poor
qualitative descriptions, resulting in the Mercalli-Cancani
scale.
1905
Anderson defines normal, reverse
and strike-slip faulting modes
1906
San Francisco Earthquake and Fire
Isoseismals mapped by Wood,;
significant detail in the city of San
Francisco itself, using ad hoc
intensity scale (Lawson, 1908)
1908 1909
Messina (Italy) earthquake
NBFU survey of San Francisco,
identifying great fire risk
Structural effects documented
(USGS, 1907), finding that
engineered buildings not
substantially damaged by the
earthquake or fire, if reasonably well
fire-protected to begin with.
Founding of Seismological Society of America;
Japanese engineers visit and investigate effects;
Emphasis on fire, and downplaying of earthquake by
City (and engineers). Areas of ‘infirm ground’ noted
and used by the San Francisco Fire Department in
subsequent construction of special high pressure
water system
Italian committee develops equivalent
lateral force (ELF) for seismic design; T.
Sano (Japan) independently develops
ELF method
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Cause of Earthquakes – elastic rebound
H.L. Reid, based on observations in 1906 San Francisco earthquake, formulated “theory of elastic rebound”
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Scawthorn "Earthquakes in your backyard"
1908 1909
Messina (Italy) earthquake
29 October 2015
Italian committee develops equivalent
lateral force (ELF) for seismic design; T.
Sano (Japan) independently develops
ELF method
Construction of SFFD AWSS
1908
1911
1912
Hugo F. Reid (1859-1944)
expounds elastic rebound theory
(Reid, 1911), based on studies of
1906 earthquake
Sieberg provides full descriptions of each degree of
Mercalli-Cancani scale. Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg or
MCS Scale twelve-degree scale still in use in Southern
Europe.
19131915
Wegener propounds “Origin of
Continents and Oceans” (ie, plate
tectonics). Is ignored.
1920s
Modern Caltech and its Seismo
Lab established; Wood and
Anderson develop and deploy
standard torsion seismograph;
Richter joins in 1925.
Frank Knight publishes Risk,
Uncertainty and Profit, a classic in
risk management.
1923
Tokyo earthquake and Fire
IEIC becomes Earthquake
Research Institute (Suyehiro first
director)
1923-24
1925
Naito’s buildings undamaged; Japanese seismic building code using Sano
seismic coefficient method (aka, ELF, equivalent lateral force)
ASCE sends
team to
investigate
Bailey Willis series on “Earthquake Risk in California” in BSSA
Insurance industry earthquake losses,
J.R. Freeman takes interest
Santa Barbara (US)
earthquake
Palo Alto seismic
code
1926
John von Neumann presents first
paper on theory of games, at
University of Göttingen,.
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1926
Prof. R. Martel (Caltech) attends Earthquake Conference
in Japan, to learn from 1923 events.
1927
UBC seismic code,
emulates ELF
approach from
Japanese code
1929
Freeman (BSSA, 1930) presents plan for strong motion
network and other concepts; subsequently lobbies
vigorously.
1931
Wood and Neumann publish MMI (1931)
Gutenberg joins Caltech
(a) Strong Motion instrumentation authorized for US Coast and
Geodetic Survey, NBS builds instruments with assistance from
MIT and U. Va., instruments deployed in California; (b) USC&GS
performs ambient and forced vibration surveys of buildings in
California, leading to rule for building natural period ( T = 0.1 N,
where N is number of stories).
1933
Long Beach Earthquake: First
strong motion recording (27
individual components); PGA
1933
Structural response spectra (Biot, 1933; Housner, 1941)
1935
1936
Mississippi
floods
Seismological Soc. Japan re-established
J.R. Freeman attends World Engg. Conf. in Tokyo, meets Martel and Suyehiro
1930
1932
15
.
Freeman publishes “Earthquake Damage and
Earthquake insurance”
Suyehiro invited to US, lectures at Berkeley,
Stanford, Caltech and MIT, great interest and
appreciation
Field and Riley Acts (California) require
seismic design for schools and other
buildings, respectively.
Richter defines earthquake
magnitude (Wadati)
Martel, Suyehiro, Gutenberg, Anderson
Federal Navigation Act of 1936 requires U.S. Corps
of Engineers carry out projects for improvement of
waterways when total benefits of a project to
whomsoever exceed the costs of that project.
Beginning of Benefit-Cost Analysis.
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1906 San Francisco EQ Intensity map
(RF scale)
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Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale
(Wood Neumann, 1931)
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Comparison of Intensity Scales
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Computed Intensity Maps
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MMI
EPICENTER
VI
M 6.6 January 17, 1994
VII
VIII
IX
X
Pacific Ocean
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17 Jan 1994 Northridge Earthquake Intensity Estimate (created 11am, 6 hours after event)
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Northridge Intensity Maps
computed
reported
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Purpose of post‐earthquake investigations
Two fundamental purposes:
1. Initial reconnaissance, to understand • what has happened (and not happened)
• what are significant aspects, for more detailed investigations
2. Detailed surveys, to acquire statistically meaningful data
This data is used to construct fragility and vulnerability functions
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Fragility and Vulnerability
Fragility:
fragility
Prob (DS | H) = CDF (DS | H) (ie, a probability)
DS = damage state
H = hazard
Used for systems analysis
Vulnerability:
Vuln = Σ (cost |DS) pdf (DS |H)
= mean cost | H
vulnerability
Used for benefit‐cost decision‐making SPA Risk
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1964 Niigata earthquake
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Liquefaction
Earthquake +
Loose Sandy Soil
Soil Settles, Densifies, Water under Pressure,
LIQUEFACTION SPA Risk
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1995 Kobe Earthquake
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1999 Turkey Earthquake
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1999 Turkey Earthquake
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Subsidence
Subsidence south shore of Izmit Bay east of Golchuk – note crane and buildings in water, indicating subsided quay or pier.
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1999 Turkey ‐ faulting
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Fault scarp
2.2 m (87 inches) vertical fault scarp, east of Golchuk (nr Ford plant)
17 Aug 99 Izmit Earthquake
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Building on Fault
Collapsed five story building intersected by faulting – arrow shows where fault intersected the building, with attendant differential settlement. SPA Risk
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Building on Fault
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Adapazari
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Building Collapse ‐ Adapazari
Overturned building in Adapazari, due to foundation failure (detail of underside of foundation). SPA Risk
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Fire at Refinery
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1993 Nansei‐oki earthquake and tsunami
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1993 Nansei
oki earthquake and tsunami
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1993 Nansei‐oki earthquake and tsunami
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1993 Nansei‐oki earthquake and tsunami
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BASIC INFORMATION
(Japan Meteorological Agency
http://www.jma.go.jp/JMA_HP/jma/indexe.html)
•- Saturday, October 23, 2004
• 5:56 PM (Local time at epicenter)
•- Magnitude 6.8
•- Location 37.3°N, 138.8°E
•- Depth about 20km
MMI
12
10+
9
8+
8‐
6
5
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Typical debris flow, exhibiting a narrow path and
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EPS(Photo:
20 Oct 29, 2015 S. Kieffer)
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Landslide dam in tributary valley formed by debris flow /
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translational soil sliding, Yamakoshi epicentral area (r) Inundation
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homes upstream
ofLecture
landslide
dam
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Block slide formed by bedding plane (sliding surface) and two sets of
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vertical joint release surfaces. (Photo: S. Kieffer)
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Derailed Shinkansen
(Photo: C. Scawthorn)
1.9 km to stop
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Sri Lanka – Coastal Transportation Corridor (typ)
Zone of destruction
(~ 100s m, typ)
Runup 3 m (typ)
10 m max (at Hambantota, SW coast)
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Water
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Banda Aceh Telecom
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EQEHAZ Intensity Distribution
MMI
EPICENTER
VI
M 6.6 January 17, 1994
VII
VIII
IX
X
Pacific Ocean
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Steel Moment Frame Connection Problem

More than 200 structures in
Los Angeles experienced
unanticipated brittle
fractures in connections

Similar damage has
occurred in other
earthquakes
—
Kobe
—
Loma Prieta
—
Landers
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Crack propagating from beam-column weld at
left, through column flange and then into the
column web
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Anheuser ‐ Busch Brewery
Van Nuys (Los Angeles), CA
Facility Description
• Original construction in 1954
• Buildings included several reinforced concrete shear wall and steel braced and moment frame structures
• Tremendous B.I. exposure if fermentation tanks damaged
• One of the largest industrial facilities affected by the earthquake
• Total replacement value = $1.3 billion (1993)
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Earthquake Risk Reduction Program (ERRP)
Phase 1 Report (PML Excerpt)
LOCATION
TYPE
PML
RISK
RISK ISSUES
Brewhouse
Concrete
35%
High
Collapse, B.I.*
Stockhouses
#1, #2, #3
Concrete
30% to
50%
High to
V. high
Collapse, B.I. *
Power plant
Steel
35%
High
Safety, B.I.
Power plant
Concrete
25%
Mod.
B.I., damage
Fire water tank
Steel plate
50%
V. high
Fire
Fuel oil tank
Steel plate
50%
V. high
Fire
Pumphouse
Prefab. bldg.
10%
Low
Pipeway bridges
Steel
30%
High
Safety, B.I.
* Extended B.I.
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Before Strengthening
After Earthquake
Note the new shear
wall (missing
windows)
The strengthened brewhouse was not damaged.
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Before Strengthening
After Earthquake
The strengthened boiler (power) plant was not damaged. The exterior bracing was
added so that operations would not be interrupted.
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Before Strengthening
After Earthquake
The strengthened (and key) fermentation tanks.
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This is what happens to fermentation tanks when they are not properly anchored. The Hakutsuru Sake
Brewery in Kobe
earthquake
was not retrofitted and
was heavily damaged.
This is a very good example
of why we continue to
investigate earthquakes.
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Event Summary
Mw: 9.0
Date: 11 March 2011 Time: LT 2:45pm UTC 5:46am
Name: Tohoku Region Pacific Offshore Earthquake
(Eastern Japan Great Earthquake Disaster)
Epicenter: 38.322°N 142.369°E
Felt: Osaka
Killed: ~ 26,000 (14,161 confirmed dead, 11,536 missing)
Housing damage: 77,000 destroyed, 260,000 damaged Displaced: 160,000
Economic Loss: $600 billion?
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Relevance
Same scale
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Item
Japan
California
USA
Area (mns sq km)
0.378
.424
9.827
Popul (mns)
127.96
37.26
308.75
Popul Density (p / sq km)
337
234
33.7
GDP nom (bns)
$5.46
$1.76
$14.62
GDP pc
$42,820
$47.13
2010: 126.22 mn
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Plate boundaries and motions
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Bird, P. (2003) An updated digital model of plate boundaries. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 4, 1027‐1079.
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Cascadia rupture from Atwater, B. F., Musumi‐Rokkaku, S., Satake, K., Tsuji, Y., Ueda, K. & D.K. Yamaguchi (2005) The Orphan Tsunami of 1700—Japanese Clues to a Parent Earthquake in North America. U.S.G.S. Professional Paper 1707, Prepared by U.S. Geological Survey in SPA Risk
cooperation with the Geological Survey of Japan (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), the University of www.sparisk.com 84
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Tokyo, and the University of Washington. Published in association with University of Washington Press. EPS 20
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Tohoku Tsunami entering San Francisco Bay
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Kyoto Univ.
18‐20 April
29 October 2015
Survey Routes
PEER – EERI
11‐12 April
Kyoto Univ.
28‐30 March
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Soma Port
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Soma Energy Port
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Shinchi
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Transport – Rail 4
Observations –
Tsunami effects SPA Risk
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Transport – Airports 2
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Ports ‐ Fishing
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Damaged Vessels
Name
Drilling ship Chikyu
Coral Ring
Shirouma
Shiramizu
C. S. Victory
Chinasteel Integrity
Asia Symphony
Glovis Mercury
Khrizolitoviy
Koshin Maru
Emu Arrow
Total
DWT
27161
75395
77739
91439
32385
175775
6175
6901
523
1592
51800
546885
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Energy – Nuclear Power
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Fire following earthquake SPA Risk
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24 Aug 2014 M6 Napa Earthquake
VI
VIII
Utilities
•
•
•
•
•
•
Potable Water
Waste Water
Electric Power
Natural Gas
Communications
Oil (crude and refined)
Transportation
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
VI
VII
Airport
Railway
Highway (x bridges)
Light Rail
Bus
Port
Ferry
Fire following earthquake  MMI
Population
VI
199,000
VII
90,000
VIII
36,000
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USGS ShakeOut Exercise
200 million sq ft ($60 bn dollar) loss due to fire following earthquake SPA Risk
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M7.05 Mainshock SA(0.3 sec)
4:18 PM Wed 18 Apr 2018
2.1m 0.9m 0.5‐ 1.7m
1.4m
Probability: 1 in 200 each year
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0m
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0
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Liquefaction
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DRAFT ‐‐ DO NOT CITE OR DISSEMINATE ‐‐ FOR SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT ONLY
Pipeline Breaks due to Shaking
4,600 breaks due to shaking
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Are we better off than we were 20 years ago?
Well, consider:
• ~24,000 URM buildings in Calif. have been mitigated
• Caltrans has analyzed / retrofitted all its overpasses (in California!)
• San Francisco has instituted CAPSS / soft story program
• Thousands of commercial buildings have been retrofitted
• UC Berkeley campus “entirely” mitigated
• PG&E has replaced all its cast iron pipe
• EBMUD, SFPUC, CCWD, MMWD, SCVWD, SJWC… done or in process
• Bay Bridge has been improved (maybe)
• LA is getting started (!)
• PG&E replaced all its gas meters with “smart meters” (but no gas shutoff device! – only eliminates meter readers)
• Schools have been mitigated since 1930s (but many now need updated retrofitting – Berkeley USD a model for this)
• Hospitals – slooooowly being done
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Concluding Remarks
• Earthquakes cause great suffering and loss
• What damage? Where? Why? has been the subject of > 100 years of investigations and research
• Our understanding accelerated from mid‐20th C
• Some of that understanding has been transmitted to you today
• But there’s still a lot to be done
• That’ll be your job
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Thank you
cscawthorn@berkeley.edu
Copy of this presentation at
http://www.sparisk.com/publications.htm
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