Probability & Statistics Sections 2.5 and 5.1 Introduction to Normal Distributions and the Standard Distribution Empirical Rule (68(68-9595-99.7%) Empirical Rule For data with a (symmetric) bell-shaped distribution, the standard deviation has the following characteristics. 1. About 68% of the data lie within one standard deviation of the mean. 2. About 95% of the data lie within two standard deviations of the mean. 3. About 99.7% of the data lie within three standard deviation of the mean. Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 2 Empirical Rule (68(68-9595-99.7%) 99.7% within 3 standard deviations 95% within 2 standard deviations 68% within 1 standard deviation 34% 34% 2.35% 2.35% 13.5% –4 –3 –2 –1 13.5% 0 1 2 3 Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 4 3 Using the Empirical Rule Example: Example The mean value of homes on a street is $125 thousand with a standard deviation of $5 thousand. The data set has a bell shaped distribution. Estimate the percent of homes between $120 and $130 thousand. 68% 105 110 115 120 125 130 µ–σ µ µ+σ 135 140 145 68% of the houses have a value between $120 and $130 thousand. Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 4 Using the Empirical Rule Suppose the class average on a test is 87% and the standard deviation of the class is 3. Find: 1. The percentage of students who scored > 90%. 2. The percentage of students who scored between 84% and 90%. 3. The percentage of students who scored < 84%. Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 5 Properties of Normal Distributions The most important probability distribution in statistics is the normal distribution. distribution Normal curve x A normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution for a random variable, x. The graph of a normal distribution is called the normal curve. curve Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 6 Properties of Normal Distributions Properties of a Normal Distribution 1. The mean, median, and mode are equal. 2. The normal curve is bell-shaped and symmetric about the mean. 3. The total area under the curve is equal to one. 4. The normal curve approaches, but never touches the xaxis as it extends farther and farther away from the mean. 5. Between µ − σ and µ + σ (in the center of the curve), the graph curves downward. The graph curves upward to the left of µ − σ and to the right of µ + σ. The points at which the curve changes from curving upward to curving downward are called the inflection points. Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 7 Properties of Normal Distributions Inflection points Total area = 1 µ − 3σ µ − 2σ µ−σ µ µ+σ µ + 2σ Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e µ + 3σ x 8 Means and Standard Deviations A normal distribution can have any mean and any positive standard deviation. Inflection points The mean gives the location of the line of symmetry. Inflection points 1 2 3 4 5 6 x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Mean: µ = 3.5 Mean: µ = 6 Standard deviation: σ ≈ 1.3 Standard deviation: σ ≈ 1.9 x The standard deviation describes the spread of the data. Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 9 Means and Standard Deviations Example: Example 1. Which curve has the greater mean? 2. Which curve has the greater standard deviation? B A 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 x The line of symmetry of curve A occurs at x = 5. The line of symmetry of curve B occurs at x = 9. Curve B has the greater mean. Curve B is more spread out than curve A, so curve B has the greater standard deviation. Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 10 Interpreting Graphs Example: Example The heights of fully grown magnolia bushes are normally distributed. The curve represents the distribution. What is the mean height of a fully grown magnolia bush? Estimate the standard deviation. µ=8 6 The inflection points are one standard deviation away from the mean. σ ≈ 0.7 7 8 9 10 Height (in feet) x The heights of the magnolia bushes are normally distributed with a mean height of about 8 feet and a standard deviation of about 0.7 feet. Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 11