COMPETITIVE
EDGE
By Craig Rosenblum
December 2014
How Shoppers’ Decisions are Changing
the Retailer’s Short List for 2015
Where should I shop? Online or in-store?
Private label or branded goods?
Buy now or wait for a sale?
Pick up or delivery?
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The Consumer is King
There are two kinds of retailers − Those that clearly understand
that the consumer is calling the shots; and those that soon will.
Changes in the marketplace are occurring at unprecedented rates. In fact, change has become so pervasive
that many retailers are opting to “let the dust settle,” particularly in the area of eCommerce, while others are
feverishly fanning the winds of change in order to gain a competitive edge.
Consider the following comments from leading retailers...
Doug McMillon, President and CEO of Walmart Stores, Inc. said, “Time is the new currency. Our shoppers want convenience and we recognize that shopping in one of our
supercenters isn’t always convenient. Hence, we will continue to build out Neighborhood Markets and Walmart-to-Go (smaller footprint stores).”
Rodney McMullen, Chief Executive Officer at the Kroger Company said, “Shoppers want
a one-stop shopping experience. They don’t want to have to go to all of the specialty
retailers to get healthy and organic products.”
Brian Cornell, Chairman and CEO at Target said, “We believe we should continue to
present a meaningful food offering in our stores and on-line. Our identity in food will be
a combination of national and our own and exclusive brands, with increased emphasis
on natural, better-for-you products.”
Michael Silverman, Global Communications at Whole Foods said, “Our customers have
wanted an affinity program for some time. With such strong existing customer demand
for a program like this, we believe it will enhance existing customer loyalty and drive
new customers. The rewards will be personalized based on individual preferences.”
These are just a few examples that validate the amount
of power that the shopper now wields. Yes, the consumer
has spoken, and catering to their wants and needs is
causing retailers, in all trade classes, to update
their To-Do list for the upcoming year.
The Retailer’s Short List for 2015
For many years retailers have attempted to be all things to all people. And decades ago, that approach worked as supercenters proved that consumer goods and durables could be sold through a single channel and/or banner. But shopper
behavior has once again shifted and its causing significant confusion across all consumer goods channels. For example,
limited assortment stores are enjoying rapid growth, yet eCommerce is attractive because it offers an endless aisle. So is
assortment important or not?
The answer lies within the bell curve. Growth and competitive differentiation occurs in the periphery. Competing in the
middle is dangerous because you are trading market share back and forth with other middle-grounders. The middle is not
where growth occurs; therefore, it is not sustainable. This, along with other monumental changes occurring in CPG retail,
is requiring retailers to increase their understanding of shopper behaviors; which is why shopper analytics is the first item
on the retailer’s short list for 2015.
1. Shopper Analytics
Navigating the changing marketplace starts with shopper analytics. Traditionally, retailers have done a good job
of using shopper data to increase volume. However, new tools and data sets will be needed to take their understanding of shopper behavior to the next level. They will need to thoroughly understand their target shoppers’
DNA in order to increase store visits and build a loyal consumer base. One of the best places to start is with the
retailer’s existing loyalty card or transaction log data, considering:
• Eighty-two percent of shoppers are more likely to shop stores offering a loyalty program
• One loyal household = 8 uncommitted households
• Loyal shoppers have a greater share of wallet (~10% greater)
• Loyal shoppers, on average, make up half to two-thirds of total sales
Shopper analytics begins with understanding which shoppers are most important. While this can be accomplished in a number of ways, one of the most common approaches uses simple classifications and shopper segmentation as illustrated below. Note: These examples can use loyalty data and/or transactional data.
TIER DESCRIPTION
Frequent, High-Value
1
Shoppers
2
Regular, Moderate-Value
Shoppers
3
Infrequent Shoppers
SEGMENT
% SHOPPERS % SPEND
Platinum
5
31
Gold
6
28
Silver
25
18
Bronze
22
9
New
17
6
Uncommitted
14
1
Lapsing
11
7
Once segmented, retailers can extract meaningful insights that correlate store visits (patterns) with weekly
spend rates. This will help retailers establish shopper recency and frequency of periods shopped. From here
retailers can determine the average or median spend per period; then segment their shoppers into bands or
groups based on opportunity and share of wallet. The final step of value segmentation deals with the breadth
of the store, which is determined by the number of categories shopped across the store during each visit.
From here, shopper data can be further mined to develop profiles for each store visit and for establishing price
sensitivities for each respective profile. Other analytics will help in determining product and category appeal,
as well as multi-channel purchases, including eCommerce.
2. Shopper Experience
The customer or shopper experience is so important
Small comes in many shapes and strategies such
that both Walmart and Kroger listed it as a priority
as Fresh & Easy, which provides convenience
in their most recent investor/analyst conferences.
for the health conscious, Target Express and
Both retail giants consider convenience and simplic-
Walmart Walmat-to-Go, which provides grocer-
ity as critical elements that will define their shopping
ies, sandwiches, BBQ, a beer cave, and more.
experience.
The importance of the shopping experience will continue to increase as eCommerce gains momentum
and as price transparency becomes ubiquitous. Fortunately, there are a number of ways retailers can differentiate their banners, including: formats, private
label, and customer service.
Value – The battle for price has never been greater and value leaders such as Aldi, Save-A-Lot, and
Price Rite continue to thrive and expand with
their limited assortment, value-based private
label offerings, and limited services. The days of
mistaking poor quality for value are gone.
Experience – Many retailers are focusing on
shopper experience as a way to differentiate
Formats
their value equation versus traditional and value
Retailers may have different philosophies and/or so-
competition. While Wegman’s, Stew Leaonards,
lutions, but all are striving to make their store(s) con-
and HEB Central Market have been around for
venient by meeting shopper needs. While geography
some time, there are a number of new entrants
and competition play significantly in this equation,
focused on the in-store experience, such as Price
most retailers forget the most important elements
Choppers, Market 32, and Lowes Foods with
are organization and change management. Needless
their Pixar designed stores.
to say, the same traditional mind set doesn’t work in
non-traditional formats. Here are examples of those
Specialty – Niche players such as Fresh Thyme,
who are addressing a variety of needs.
Sprouts, and Trader Joes continue to provide a
Express – These stores are smaller in design (usu-
unique and health conscious shopping experi-
ally 20,000 sq.ft. or less) and enable the shopper
ence that shoppers embrace, as evidenced by
to get in and out of the store quickly.
their consistent growth.
Private Label
One of the greatest ways to differentiate the store/banner is by providing a portfolio of private label products
which cannot be purchased elsewhere. The days of generics and inferior product quality are behind us. The leaders are seeing private label share of sales in the low 30% range and growing. In fact some private label brands,
like Kroger’s Simple Truth, have become billion dollar brands. Retailers are now providing a complete portfolio
of lower priced National Brand Equivalents (NBE) throughout the store, including Meat, Produce, Health and
Beauty, and nonconsumables. Kroger and Walmart also introduced entry-level brands such as Heritage Farms,
psst, Check this Out (Kroger), and Price First (Walmart). These entry-level brands will help fend off competition
from dollar stores.
Customer Service
Most retailers, with the exception of the extreme value discounters, believe they provide superior service versus
the competition. Unfortunately, in our experience this is not truly the case. Bagging groceries, taking them to the
car, full service meat and seafood, walking a shopper to a product in-store, and coffee bars have become table
stakes. However, new services are being introduced to up the Customer Service ante. For example:
•
No Check-Out Lines
Leading retailers like Kroger have incorporated technology that counts shoppers entering the store;
then calculates the length of the shopper’s visit, and adjusts the number of check-out lines open to
ensure shoppers never wait in-line.
•
Dieticians
Given the focus on healthy eating and the variety of medical ailments (e.g., obesity/diet, gluten, diabetes, lactose intolerance, etc.), leading retailers have added this valuable member to the store staff to
ensure shoppers have this personal assistant to make them more comfortable in-store.
•
Community
Grocery stores are becoming more than a place to shop. Many retailers are now incorporating cooking
schools/classes, meeting rooms, and large seating areas to meet more community needs and enable
patrons to spend more time in their stores.
3. Digital Engagement
Retailers should think of digital as the highway to personalization. However, with great power comes great responsibility. Recognizing that compared to electronics, technology, soft goods, and specialty retailers, grocery
retail is late in the game, consumer expectations are high. Several leading retailers are already down the digital
highway by offering the following:
• Personalized Offers and Digital Coupons
No longer is it acceptable for retailers to bombard the shopper with coupons in hope of getting one to
stick. Shoppers expect offers to be relevant to them, and these offers should be automatically loaded in
to the shoppers loyalty account. In fact, Kroger’s redemption rate for personalized offers exceeds 30%.
Similarly, their load-to-card redemption rate is three-to-five times higher than the industry average.
• Shopping List
Shoppers expect to see their favorites, or most recently purchased items, readily available. They also
expect the retailer to suggest other products they may like (similar to Amazon’s model).
• Ads
Almost all retailers put their ads online, which can segment the offers by store location or zone. But
best-in-class retailers are delivering a personalized ad that is unique to each household, based on their
preferences (e.g., healthy household with more natural/organic preferences).
• Apps Replacing Email
The days of mass emailing are no longer
acceptable. If emails aren’t relevant,
shoppers will block access; however,
that point is becoming moot as more
retailers are using their specific apps
as their primary communications vehicle.
4. Price and Promotion
Total price transparency and showrooming are enabling shoppers to get the lowest price for their most frequently purchased items. While programs like Walmart’s Savings Catcher occur post-purchase, we expect
similar programs and technologies will impact the shoppers purchasing decision in advance of, or during, the
store visit. Yet, even with price transparency, the battle for price/value dominance continues as Amazon seeks
to become the preferred retailer for groceries, household items, and pet supplies. Of course Walmart is still
leading the charge with its hybrid-EDLP format and its Savings Catcher program. But even Walmart is at risk as
the merger of Family Dollar with Dollar Tree brings new buying power to the price negotiation table. The good
news is that traditional retailers can still benefit from a well-orchestrated shopper value equation by:
• Using price communication best practices to get full credit for the values being offered
• Integrating savings strategies across all communication platforms (in-store, print, digital, social)
• Leveraging private label (national brand equivalents and entry-level price points)
• Optimizing weekly circulars by understanding the tradeoffs between margins and traffic
5. Omni-Channel
Winning in the year ahead will require retailers to integrate their digital strategies with their physical stores.
Specifically, retailers demonstrating the simplest, most convenient click-and-mortar configurations will leapfrog
those just entering the digital marketplace. eCommerce in CPG, which is expected to increase by 60% in the
next three years, is creating new opportunities to engage shoppers. Capitalizing on these opportunities requires a unique and integrated shopping experience comprised of the following:
• Shopping
Retailers must continue to connect with shoppers in-store and online (using smart phones, tablets,
computers, and kiosks).
• Delivery
Retailers must embrace home delivery and click-and-collect models.
• Information-Based Services
Shoppers, particularly millennials, expect retailers to understand their product preferences while providing meal solutions and time-saving services such as automatic prescription refills.
The Year Ahead
For most of the consumer goods industry, 2014 was a turning point highlighted by declining unemployment and
increasing consumer confidence. While this is certainly good news, it does not necessarily indicate that growth
in consumer goods will exceed the rate of inflation. However, retailers embracing new strategies and tools that
help them to better understand their shoppers’ needs and wants will grow at disproportionate rates. And those
focused on shopper analytics and click-and-mortar retailing will position their banners to outperform the market
for many years to come.
To learn more about capturing growth and developing shopper-centric strategies, contact
Craig Rosenblum at 847-756-3726 or at craig.rosenblum@willardbishop.com.
About the Author
Craig Rosenblum | Partner
Mr. Rosenblum leads Willard Bishop’s expansion efforts through business development and strategic alliances. Craig’s expertise includes supply and demand side technologies,
systems and strategies. His rich expertise and leadership can be found in a number of industry initiatives, including Category Management, CPFR, ECR, Activity-Based Costing, and Data Synchronization. Craig has also been
keenly instrumental in driving collaboration for companies such as CVS, SuperValu, Cadbury Schweppes, and
Masterfoods USA.
Prior to joining Willard Bishop, Craig led the business development efforts for Prescient Applied Intelligence,
Milton Merl Associates and Crossmark. He currently sits on the National Steering Planning Committee for UConnect, presents at CGIT and has been published in GMA Forum. Craig earned his B.S. degree in Packaging Science
and Technology from Rochester Institute of Technology.
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