ECON2123 (Spring 2012) 15 & 16.2.2012 (Tutorial 2) Chapter 2: Key Macroeconomics Variables National income accounting Gross domestic product (GDP): The market value of all final goods and services produced in a country during a given period. Gross national product (GNP): The market value of all final goods and services produced by the domestically owned factors of production during a given period. Three approaches to calculate GDP 1) Product approach/ Value added approach (Production side) The value of final goods and services produced in an economy during a given period The sum of value added in the economy during a given period Value added: the value of production – value of intermediate goods Intermediate good: goods used in the production of other goods in the same period when they are produced 2) Income approach (Income side) The sum of incomes in the economy during a given period Labor income/ wages, capital income/ profit, tax to the government, rent, interest income, dividends…etc 3) Expenditure approach We could find out GDP by looking at the expenditures of different sectors National income accounts identity: GDP = Y = C + I + G + (EX – IM) Other remarks: 1) Treatments of intermediate good, capital good, inventory investment, exports and imports Capital good: goods used in the production of other goods Inventory investment: the difference between production and sales 2) Problems of GDP definitions Non-market transactions are not included. For example, barter. Positive/ Negative externalities are not included. Quality of goods not considered. Wealth distribution Sustainability Underground economy Nominal and real GDP Real GDP: the values of goods and services measured using a constant set of prices Nominal GDP: the value of goods and services measured at current prices Real GDP per capita average standard of living GDPt GDPt 1 GDP growth rate 100% economic expansion/ recession GDPt 1 The level of price and inflation Inflation: sustained rise in the general level of prices in the economy P Pt 1 Inflation rate = t (where Pt is a price index: could be GDP deflator or CPI) Pt 1 1 GDP deflator The ratio of nominal GDP and real GDP GDP deflator = Nominal GDP / Real GDP Pt Qt P t Pbase Qt Pbase Pt /Pbase shows the change in the price level Nominal GDP = Real GDP GDP deflator GDP deflator allows us to separate nominal GDP into 2 parts: one part measures quantities (real GDP) and the other measures prices (GDP deflator) Real GDP = Nominal GDP / GDP deflator The GDP deflator is used to deflate nominal GDP to yield real GDP Consumer price index (CPI) A measure of the overall price level of prices that shows the cost of a fixed basket of consumer goods relative to the cost of the same basket in a base year Qibase Picurrent 100 CPI in current year = Qibase Pibase Key difference between GDP deflator and CPI 1) GDP deflator measures the prices of all goods and services produced including capital goods, whereas CPI measures the prices of consumer goods only 2) GDP deflator includes only domestically produced goods, whereas CPI measures both domestically produced goods and imported goods 3) GDP deflator is computed with a changing basket of goods, whereas CPI is computed with a fixed basket of goods The Unemployment Rate The households in the working age population will be assigned to one of the three categories: Employed (E), Unemployed (U) and Not in the labor force (NLF) Employment: the number of people who have a job Unemployment: the number of who do not have a job but are looking for a job NLF: those who do not have a job and are not looking for a job Labor force (L): it consists of all employed (E) and unemployed workers (U). L E U U Unemployment rate (u): the fraction of the labor force that is unemployed. u L Problems of the definition of unemployment rate: 1) Does not include underemployment 2) Does not include discouraged workers Discouraged workers: people without a job who give up looking for work Participation rate: labor force / total population of working age E U E U NLF Economists care about unemployment because: It directly affects the welfare of the unemployed It provides a signal that the economy may not be using some of its resources efficiently 2 Examples and Problems Example 1 During a given year, the following activities occur: Stage 1: Firm 1 produces steel, employing workers and using machines to produce the steel. It sells the steel for $100 to Firm 2, which produces cars. Firm 1 then pays its workers$80, leaving $20 in profit to the firm. Stage 2: Firm 2 buys the steel and uses it, together with workers and machines, to produce cars. Revenues from car sales are $210. Of the $210, $100 goes to pay for steel and $70 goes to workers in the firm, leaving $40 in profit to the firm. a) Using the “production of final goods” approach, what is GDP in this economy? $210, the value of the car b) What is the value added at each stage of production? Using the “value added” approach, what is GDP? 1st stage: $100, 2nd stage: $210 – $100 = $110 GDP = $100 + $ 110 = $ 210 c) What are the total wages and profits earned? Using the income approach, what is GDP? Wage: $80 + $70 = $150, Profits: $20 + $40 = $60 GDP = $150+ $60 =$210 Example 2 Consider the following economy with 2 firms. Firm A (produces oranges) Wages to workers: Taxes to government: Revenue from sales: Unsold oranges at market price: $15 $5 $45 (sold to public: $10, sold to Firm B: $25, Export:$10) $10 Firm B (produces orange juice) Wages to workers: Taxes to government: Oranges purchased from Firm A: Oranges imported from overseas: Inventory of orange from last year: Orange left at the end of this year: Revenue from sales: $10 $2 $25 $10 $10 $15 $40 Use the 1) product approach (value added), 2) expenditure approach and 3) income approach to calculate the GDP of the economy 1) Value added approach Firm A’s value added: Firm B’s value added: 55 = (45 + 10) 10 = 40 – orange used in producing OJ [Orange used in producing OJ: (25 + 10 + 10) – 15 = 30] GDP = 55 + 10 = 65 o Remark: intermediate goods deducted to avoid double counting 3 2) Expenditure approach Consumption: 50 = (10 + 40) A’s Inventory investment: 10 B’s Inventory investment: 5 = (15 – 10) Export: 10 Import: –10 GDP = 50 + 10 + 5 + 10 – 10 = 65 o Remark: “+” for inventory investment and exports, and “–“ for imports 3) Income approach Wages: 25 = (15 + 10) Firm A’s profit: 35 = (45 – 15 – 5 + 10) Firm B’s profit: –2 = (40 – 10 – 25 – 10 + 15 – 10 – 2) Taxes: 7 = (5+2) GDP = 25 + 35 – 2 + 7 = 65 o How are the profits calculated? Example 3 Consider an economy that produces only 3 types of fruits: apples, oranges, and bananas. In the base year and current year, the production and price date were as follows: Base Year Apples Bananas Oranges Quantity 3000 6000 8000 Price 2 3 4 Current Year Quantity Price 4000 3 14000 2 32000 5 a) Find nominal GDP in the current year and in the base year. GDP in current year: (4000*3) + (14000*2) + (32000* 5) = 200000 GDP in base year: (3000*2) + (6000*3) + (8000* 4) = 56000 b) Find real GDP in current year and in the base year. Real GDP in base year: 56000 Real GDP in current year: (4000*2) + (14000*3) + (32000* 4) = 178000 c) Find the GDP deflator for the current year and the base year. By what percentage does the price level change from the base year to the current year? GDP deflator (Nominal GDP / Real GDP) of base year: 1 GDP deflator of current year: (200000/178000)*100 = 1.12 Percentage change in price level from base year to current year = 12% Example 4 U.S. working age population by group, June 2006 Number employed = 144.4 million, Number unemployed = 7.0 million Size of working age population = 228.8 million Use the above data to calculate (a) The size of labor force = 144.4M 7M 151.4M (b) Number of people not in the labor force = 228.8M 151.4M 77.4M 151.4M (c) Labor force participation rate = 100% 66.2% 228.8M 7M (d) The unemployment rate = 100% 4.6% 151.4M 4