Report: January 2015 Released: February 2015 February 2015 GB LEISURE IN JANUARY 2015 - COMMENT Eating Out has continued to experience strong growth and the While economic news continues to be positive - see the 13% rise in spend this month could be, in part, a result of a fall recently announced employment figures - the latest Leisure in petrol prices and inflation reaching record lows, giving Brits Tracker data reveals that many consumers are yet to feel the more to spend on their favourite leisure activity. Drinking Out impact in their own wallets. Encouragingly, economic was slightly down in January, but it was Other Leisure that forecasts suggest 2015 will be the year that cost of living found it tough, bringing down the total figure for the month. pressures start to ease, with the fall in petrol prices the first Britain’s youth have struggled in recent years but this month’s evidence of this. If wage rises counterpart falling inflation, report suggests the worst is now behind them. Our survey drinking out and wider leisure spend may enjoy the same found that 18-24 year olds expect to spend more on Eating Out, strong growth as eating out, which has enjoyed an excellent Drinking Out and big ticket items this year than in 2014, a sign start to the year. that Britain’s youth may now be more confident about their job security, wages and better prospects in 2015. Fiona Gunn Paul Flatters Marketing Director Chief Executive Greene King Trajectory February 2015 HEADLINES TOTAL LEISURE • In January, the average British household spent £183 on out of home leisure, down £8 (4%) year-on-year and down £27 (13%) month-on- Average Household Spend in January £183.11 month. 4% decrease year-on-year • A fall in year-on-year household spending on out of home leisure reflects the ongoing fragility of consumer confidence despite falls in utility and fuel prices continuing to keep inflation down. • Despite a decline in total leisure spending yearon-year, Eating Out saw growth in spending of 13% decrease vs. December EATING OUT DRINKING OUT OTHER LEISURE Average Household Spend in January Average Household Spend in January Average Household Spend in January 13% increase yearon-year 1% decrease year-onyear 19% decrease yearon-year 12% decrease vs. Dec 21% decrease vs. Dec 9% decrease vs. Dec 13%, showing that despite households cutting back in other areas of leisure, they continue to carve out enough money to fund their favourite leisure pastime. February 2015 TOTAL LEISURE SPEND GB HOUSEHOLD AVERAGE EATING OUT, DRINKING OUT AND OTHER LEISURE SPEND BY MONTH • Pressure on overall leisure spend suggests households could be starting to increase spend on big ticket items now that low levels of inflation are helping real income levels recover. • Eating Out grew year-on year for the sixth consecutive month in January. Spend on Drinking Out, although down year-on-year, proved resilient, falling less than £1, despite societal pressure on New Years drinking habits. • Year-on-year, spend on Other Leisure remained weak in January, down £16 (19%). Interestingly, despite the relatively softer impact of the recession on older age groups, this fall in spend was disproportionately driven by households where the respondent was over 45 years old. This suggests a decline in spend is more reflective of a change in preferences than the result of financial pressures. DRINKINGOUT OUT DRINKING EATINGOUT OUT EATING OTHERLEISURE LEISURE OTHER February 2015 GB HOUSEHOLD AVERAGE TOTAL LEISURE SPEND MIX BY MONTH TOTAL LEISURE SPEND MIX • Flat year-on-year Drinking Out spend in the context of a fall in total leisure spend meant this activity accounted for a 1% greater share of total leisure spend in January compared to the same time in the prior year, moving from 20% to 21%. • In January, Eating Out accounted for 41% of the average household’s monthly leisure spend, the highest share since September last year, and a continued reflection of the growth of this leisure activity at the expense of others within the household repertoire. • The share of total leisure spending accounted for by Other Leisure activities fell 6% year-onyear from 45% to 39% in January. DRINKING OUT DRINKING OUT EATING OUT EATING OUT OTHER LEISURE OTHER LEISURE February 2015 TOTAL LEISURE OVER TIME: JAN 15 vs. JAN 14 & JAN 15 vs. DEC 14 TOTAL LEISURE OVER TIME TOTAL LEISURE SPEND OVER TIME: REGIONAL OVERVIEW • Year-on-year declines in spend highlight a slightly more conservative outlook among households despite improving economic conditions. The lasting psychological impact of the recession means households will continue to be critical when judging ‘value’ for money. • While households in London and the South East saw spend on out of home leisure fall £36 (15%) year-on-year in January, households elsewhere in Britain saw spend increase modestly by £4 (3%). TOTAL LEISURE SPEND OVER TIME: KIDS / NO KIDS OVERVIEW The prospect of house price growth slowing in the capital may be continuing to compress confidence. Whether this differential in leisure spending between the two areas is an indicator that there will be continued convergence in leisure spending remains to be seen. JAN 2014 JAN 2015 DEC 2014 February 2015 TOTAL LEISURE OVER TIME: JAN 15 vs. JAN 14 & JAN 15 vs. DEC 14 EATING OUT OVER TIME EATING OUT SPEND OVER TIME: REGIONAL OVERVIEW • Eating Out was the only activity to see year-onyear growth in January, increasing £9 (13%). Relatively stronger year-on-year performance of Eating Out relative to Drinking Out suggests that food-led establishments, such as restaurants, performed more strongly than those in which drink represents a more significant component of the sales mix. • Households in London and the South East increased their spend on Eating Out by £5 (6%) EATING OUT SPEND OVER TIME: KIDS / NO KIDS OVERVIEW year-on-year, while households elsewhere in Britain saw a considerably greater increase in spend of £10 (17%) over the same period. • Households with and without kids saw spend on Eating Out increase on a year-on-year basis. This, in line with the increases seen in both areas of Britain referenced above, shows how broad based the growing appeal of this activity has been recently. JAN 2014 JAN 2015 DEC 2014 February 2015 TOTAL LEISURE OVER TIME: JAN 15 vs. JAN 14 & JAN 15 vs. DEC 14 DRINKING OUT OVER TIME DRINKING OUT SPEND OVER TIME: REGIONAL OVERVIEW • Year-on-year, spend on Drinking Out fell just 1% in January. Not surprisingly, month-on-month spend on Drinking Out fell considerably among all household types as January saw the end of Christmas and New Year celebrations. • A small drop of £2 (5%) in year-on-year household spend on Drinking Out among households in London and the South East was offset by slight growth £1 (2%) in spend among households in the rest of Britain. DRINKING OUT SPEND OVER TIME: KIDS / NO KIDS OVERVIEW • Family households saw spend on Drinking Out increase by £3 (8%) year-on-year, while households without children reduced their spend on this activity by £1 (3%). JAN 2014 JAN 2015 DEC 2014 February 2015 TOTAL LEISURE OVER TIME: JAN 15 vs. JAN 14 & JAN 15 vs. DEC 14 OTHER LEISURE SPEND OVER TIME OTHER LEISURE SPEND OVER TIME: REGIONAL OVERVIEW • Year-on-year, spend on Other Leisure activities fell by £16 (19%) in January. Spending on Other Leisure activities such as bowling and admissions to museums and art galleries were among the categories that saw the most substantial year-onyear declines in spend in January. • Households in London and the South East saw spend on Other Leisure fall considerably on a year-on-year basis in January, spend falling £39 OTHER LEISURE SPEND OVER TIME: KIDS / NO KIDS OVERVIEW (32%). Households elsewhere in Britain also saw spend on Other Leisure fall although the decline was far softer at £7 (9%). • Households without kids were responsible for the entirety of the year-on-year decline in spend on Other Leisure, cutting spend by £27 (32%). In contrast, family households increased spend by £14 (15%), however this increase did little do offset the decline seen at GB level. JAN 2014 JAN 2015 DEC 2014 February 2015 OTHER LEISURE SPEND BREAKDOWN GB HOUSEHOLD AVERAGE MONTHLY OTHER LEISURE SPEND: NOVEMBER, DECEMBER AND JANUARY • Falls in spend among Other Leisure activities were most marked in gambling, bowling and attendance of live sport events in the three months to January 2015 compared to the same period a year prior. • More sustained spend on other live events than sports events in the three months to January against the same period last year meant that spend on these events overtook that on live sports events. • Spend on all Other Leisure activities in the three months to January was largely consistent with spending in the three months THEATRE / CINEMA MUSEUMS, ART GALLERIES & OTHER ATTRACTIONS BOWLING LIVE SPORTS EVENTS GAMBLING AT A CASINO & OTHER GAMING FOR MONEY GYM MEMBERSHIP to December due to similar spending in January across the majority of activities as seen in October of last year. OTHER LIVE EVENTS February 2015 ALL LEISURE – MIX OVER TIME BY GROUP • Year-on-year, Eating Out accounted for a greater share of total leisure spend across all household types, further establishing Eating Out as Britain’s favourite leisure activity. Conversely, Other Leisure activities accounted for a smaller share of total leisure spend across all household types in January. • Year-on-year, with the exception of family households, Drinking Out accounted for a greater share of total leisure spend across all household types in January, despite a slight fall in spend in nominal terms among some types of household. DRINKING OUT EATING OUT OTHER LEISURE February 2015 BEHAVIOUR IN THE NEW YEAR February 2015 BEHAVIOURS IN THE NEW YEAR • Over a third (36%) of British adults claim they intend to eat more healthily during 2015, among 25-34 year olds this figure climbs to 45%. Among over 55’s the figure falls to 30%. • Despite a growing interest in ‘craft’ beer, there appears to be little appetite among the majority of British adults to try new alcoholic drinks. Only among 18-24 year olds did more than one in 10 expect to be more adventurous in this domain. However, there was a greater, but still modest, appetite for trying new foods with just over one in seven British adults intending to do so in the new year. • Interestingly, 18-24 year olds were the least likely of any age group to say they intended to cut their alcohol consumption, yet those in the 25-34 age bracket were the most likely of any group to claim they were pursuing this goal. February 2015 18-24 YEAR OLDS MOST OPTIMISTIC ABOUT EATING OUT SPEND IN 2015 IN TOTAL, DO YOU EXPECT THAT YOU WILL SPEND MORE ON LESS MONEY ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING IN 2015 COMPARED TO 2014, OR DO YOU THINK YOU WILL SPEND ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT? (EATING OUT) • Among respondents of all age groups and from all types of households, the majority expected that they would maintain 2014 levels of Eating Out spend through into 2015. • 18-24 year olds were the most confident about increasing their spend on Eating Out in 2015 and were the only group among which a greater number of people expected to spend more on this activity than less over the coming year. • Interestingly, in contrast to the trend towards Eating Out spend growth among family households, almost a quarter of those living in family households expect to spend less on this activity in 2015 compared to 2014, while only 17% expect to spend more. Among non-family households, this disparity was considerably less, 18% expecting to spend less against 16% expecting to spend more. MORE SAME LESS February 2015 MAJORITY OF BRITS INTEND TO MAINTAIN DRINKING OUT SPEND INTO 2015 IN TOTAL, DO YOU EXPECT THAT YOU WILL SPEND MORE ON LESS MONEY ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING IN 2015 COMPARED TO 2014, OR DO YOU THINK YOU WILL SPEND ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT? (DRINKING OUT) • Two thirds of Brits intend to spend the same amount on Drinking Out as they had in 2014. However, twice as many expect to reduce spend (22%) as the number expecting to increase it (11%). • Similar to the projections made by 18-24 year olds around Eating Out, this was the only age group to project increased spend on Drinking Out in 2015. The optimism of this age group is somewhat surprising given the weakness in the youth unemployment market. • Expectations around spend on Drinking Out in 2015 among both those living in London/South East and those elsewhere in Britain paralleled what was seen at total GB level. MORE SAME LESS February 2015 MORE BRITS EXPECT TO CHANGE LEVEL OF SPEND ON BIG TICKET ITEMS THAN MAINTAIN IT DURING 2015 IN TOTAL, DO YOU EXPECT THAT YOU WILL SPEND MORE ON LESS MONEY ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING IN 2015 COMPARED TO 2014, OR DO YOU THINK YOU WILL SPEND ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT? (BIG TICKET ITEMS) • Respondents from all household types and age groups (except 18-24 year olds) saw more than half of respondents projecting their expenditure on big ticket items would be different from the levels seen in 2014. • Generally, a greater number of British adults expected to spend less in 2o15 than they had during 2014, and this was consistent for Eating Out, Drinking Out and big ticket items. Future growth in leisure spending overall may act to mask a dynamic of increasing polarisation of spend, with a small group representing a greater share of total spending while the truly ‘average’ household continues to struggle. MORE SAME LESS *Big ticket items are categorised as those with a price of above £250 February 2015 THE NEXT LEISURE SPEND TRACKER WILL BE RELEASED ON Wednesday 25th March 2015 February 2015 METHODOLOGY • The Greene King Leisure Spend Tracker is part of an omnibus questionnaire run on behalf of Greene King by research partner YouGov and analysed in conjunction with Trajectory Partnership. • Respondents report on their household’s leisure behaviour over the previous week (e.g. spend, visit frequency etc.), with respect to the leisure activities set out below: Eating Drinking Out Out Gambling Live Sports Other Live Gym Museums, Art Theatre and Events Events Membership Galleries and Cinema Bowling Other Attractions • The Leisure Spend Tracker is run four times in each calendar month, always going into field on a Monday. This data is then used to generate a picture of household leisure activity in Great Britain over a 28 day period in each calendar month. • Each month’s report is based on an online, nationally representative sample of c. 4,000 individuals (GB, 18+), reflecting the leisure behaviour of c. 4,000 households. Data has been collected every month since August 2013. • A wealth of demographic data is held against each respondent ,which allows for more fine-grained analysis of households with particular characteristics. February 2015 CONTACT For media enquiries please contact: Philip Walters RLMFinsbury Tel: +44 (0) 20 72513801 General enquiries: Email: leisuretracker@greeneking.co.uk Website: www.gkleisuretracker.co.uk DISCLAIMER This report was created by Greene King and Trajectory Partnership. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material in this report. The authors will not be held liable for any loss or damages incurred through the use of this report. Bury St. Edmunds, February 2015.