WHOSE TIME IS IT?
A “TEMPORAL” APPROACH TO
EVALUATION:
Time Perspective as a Dimension of
Boundary Judgments and Evaluation
Aysun Özen, 2008
University of Twente/ Center for Clean Technology and
Environmental Policy
Aim of the paper...
to introduce some concepts related to
variations in temporal perspective of
people
| to present an introduction to how
these concepts may influence
decisions and actors within the
domain of sustaible water resources
management
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Contents
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Introduction
Concepts
z Time horizon
z Temporal discounting
z Discount rate
z Temporal perspective and temporal orientation
Impacts
z Conflict
z Rivalry
z Problem definition
z Adaptive action
Implications
z Boundary spanning
z Evalution
Projections for future research
Introduction- Water
related problems
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Felt throughout the society
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Interconnected
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Multiple actors
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Multiple preferences, multiple
motivations, multiple problem
perceptions and multiple options
Introductionintertemporal choice
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Majority, if not all, of policy making decisions
have delayed consequences which either occur
gradually and cumulatively throughout a period of
time, or in a later time point.
Definition:
z
Choice between options whose consequences
occur at different points in time is an
intertemporal decision (Ainslie, 2005)
z
Tradeoffs between outcomes occurring at
different points in time (Loewenstein, 1998):
immediate loss versus future gain, etc.
Introduction- impact of
intertemporal choice
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Water related decisions can be considered as
intertemporal?
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Conflict and resource dilemma cases have a
temporal component, as short term versus long
term interests?
Introduction- impact of delay
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Delay may not be perceived the same by all actors
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Delay may hinder the importance of future outcomes
for some actors
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Delay may be beyond the time horizon of some actors.
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Regarding the above question marks, delay may be a
cause of conflict or dilemma.
Contents
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Introduction
Concepts
z Time horizon
z Temporal discounting
z Discount rate
z Temporal perspective and temporal orientation
Impacts
z Conflict
z Rivalry
z Problem definition
z Adaptive action
Implications
z Boundary spanning
z Evalution
Projections for future research
Concepts- time horizon
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Time horizon is the most distant point in time that is
considered when making a decision (Hendrickx et al,
2001)
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One would be inclined to consider the consequences
of actions only within her time horizon
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Awareness of future consequences is related to one’s
time horizon in the first place
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Each individual has her own time horizon
Concepts- Temporal
discounting
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Present value calculation with discount rate
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Evaluation of temporally distant outcomes are
complicated and contains some inconsistencies and
anomalies
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Temporal discounting phenomenon acknowledges
these anomalies
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People regard more remote outcomes as less
important than more immediate outcomes (Hendrickx,
2001)
Concepts- Discount rate
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Both situational and dispositional nature: Differs for
individuals and for the context (Chapman, 1998)
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Numerous research conclude that there is a systematic
difference in the relative importance that individuals
attach to temporally distant events (Hendrickx, van den
Berg and Vlek, 1993)
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Individual differences are reflected in especially resource
dilemma situations. (Hendrickx, 2001)
Concepts- time perspective
and temporal orientation
|A
determinant of human decision making
|Totality
of the individual's views of his psychological
future and psychological past existing at a given
perspective
Self-efficacy beliefs are grounded in past experiences,
current appraisals and reflections of future options,
which altogether are reflections of temporal influence
on behavioral self regulation, forming the temporal
profile of the individual in the final analysis (Bandura,
1997)
Concepts- time perspective
and temporal orientation
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Consciously or unconsciously, all individuals have a
temporal frame in their mind: future, present of past
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When one develops a tendency towards
overemphasizing a temporal frame in making
decisions, this tendency becomes a temporal bias,
towards a past, present or future orientation, and this
orientation becomes a dispositional component when
chronically elicited (Zimbardo, 1997).
Concepts- time perspective
and temporal orientation
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“Unique cognitive style of processing information and
acting based on a learned, preferred focus on one or
another dimension of the temporal environment as
past, present or future” (Zimbardo et al, 1997)
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An invisible and enduring bias
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Foundation for other more visible constructs such as
risk taking, sensation seeking, achievement, etc.
Concepts- time perspective
and temporal orientation
Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI)
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Future:
z
Strive for planning for and achievement of future goals.
z
High consideration of consequences, and controlled risk taking
Present-hedonistic:
z
“Now and here”, present pleasure
z
Discards sacrifices today for rewards tomorrow: less consideration of
consequences, tendency to take risks
Present-fatalistic:
z
“Now and here” but with a fatalistic, helpless and hopeless attitude
toward the future and life
z
No control over the world, low responsibility.
z
Consideration of future consequences exist, but would not produce
corrective or preventive action
Concepts- time perspective
and temporal orientation
Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI)-cont’d
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Past-negative:
z
Pessimistic, negative, or aversive attitude toward the past
z
“too late to take action”
Past-positive:
z
A warm, sentimental, nostalgic, and positive construction of
the past
z
rosy retrospection bias: weakened ability to make causal
analysis of the past actions and events
Contents
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Introduction
Concepts
z Time horizon
z Temporal discounting
z Discount rate
z Temporal perspective and temporal orientation
Impacts
z Conflict
z Rivalry
z Problem definition
z Adaptive action
Implications
z Boundary spanning
z Evalution
Projections for future research
Impacts of time perception
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A general psychological construct, dominant in much human
motivation and decision making (Gonzales and Zimbardo,
1985)
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A filter on any element of a decision: from available
alternatives to with whom to cooperate
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Many basic psychological processes, including habituation,
conditioning, memory, reinforcement contingencies, selfefficacy, anticipation, violations of expectation, evolutionary
adaptiveness, guilt, depression, and anxiety, rely on some
temporal aspects (Boyd, 1999)
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A fundamental determinant of election and pursuit of social
goals, with important implications for emotion, cognition and
motivation (Carstensen, Isaacowitz, & Charles, 1999)
Impacts- conflict
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Source of social dilemma in numerous researches
(Van Vugt, 1999; Dawes, 1980; Messick and Brewer,
1983; Messick and McClelland, 1983; Vlek and Keren,
1992; Joireman, 2005)
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Behavior which is rational from short term and
individual point of view may result in a suboptimal
outcome for people as a whole
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Differing temporal perspectives calls for the conflict of
short term individual and long term collective interests
Impacts- rivalry
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Immediate outcomes and delayed
outcomes are rivals of each other
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Drip irrigation instead of aggressive
irrigation?
Impacts- problem definition
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Problem perception is obviously related with one’s
framing and one important contributor to this framing is
the temporal perspective (Loewenstein, 1998)
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One can only see the problems within her time horizon
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Perceive problems which are compatible with her
orientation
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Problem of drought?
Impacts- adaptive action
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Problem definition and selection of adaptive action,
though closely related, are not actually predictors of
each other
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Present hedonistic and fatalistics: less willing to take
adaptive action
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Future oriented: more willing for adaptation
Contents
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Introduction
Concepts
z Time horizon
z Temporal discounting
z Discount rate
z Temporal perspective and temporal orientation
Impacts
z Conflict
z Rivalry
z Problem definition
z Adaptive action
Implications
z Boundary spanning
z Evalution
Projections for future research
Implications- tendency to
cooperate
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High discount rates are less willing to cooperate
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Further the time horizon, the more willingness to
cooperate
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People who have present fatalistic and present
hedonistic frame, show less intention to cooperate
while future frame holders are much more willing to
cooperate
Implications-comprehension
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People typically base their decisions upon a reference
point which determines what is gain or what is loss
(Loewenstein, 1998). Which point on the time line is
that of boundary spanner’s? Evaluator’s?
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What is the time horizon of the boundary spanner?
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Required: ability to cut the time line at the farthest of
the other actors
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Modifications in actors’ temporal perception when
required for consensus and when possible
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“Balanced time orientation” (Zimbardo and Boyd,
1999)
Contents
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Introduction
Concepts
z Time horizon
z Temporal discounting
z Discount rate
z Temporal perspective and temporal orientation
Impacts
z Conflict
z Rivalry
z Problem definition
z Adaptive action
Implications
z Boundary spanning
z Evalution
Projections for future research
Projections for future
research
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An underresearched area
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Suggestion: Temporal perspective should be more of a
focus, with strong potential to be integrated to
boundary work and evaluation studies.
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Planned empirical study in Konya Closed Basin
Thank You...
Aysun Özen
Vienna, 2008