Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
Rolling Wave Planning:
Manage Projects Without Going Under
Rolling Wave Planning:
Manage Projects
Without Going Under
W. Charles Slaven
MBA PMP CSSBB CPA (inactive)
Director, Lean Deployment and
Continuous Improvement
The Christ Hospital Health Network
Twice Past President, PMI SW Ohio
Chapter
Concepts to be covered today:
I. Understanding the model
II. Becoming aware of its foundational principles
A.
B.
C.
D.
Formal Project Time Management
Risk Management
Agile Project Management
Lean Concepts
III. Knowing how to plan for:
A. What you know and
B. What you don’t know
IV. Using Rolling Wave Planning successfully
V. Applying Rolling Wave Project Management
VI. Benefits, Trends, Strategies & Getting Started
The Slaven Group (c)
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Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
What’s the Point?
Why do Rolling Wave?
• For many projects, you cannot know all
the future tasks to be accomplished
• To try to detail schedule and resource all
the detailed tasks needed in the future may
not add value
Why?
• Because the future is uncertain and you
just don’t know what you don’t know yet
As we get started…
• Breakout into teams and tell us about some
of your long term projects that will take
more than six months to complete
• Post your project names up – select one.
• Describe the project
• Scope the work by defining the end deliverable
• Define the total time frame: Start/ Finish Date
(We will debrief this as much as possible and come
back to it later)
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Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
Understanding the Model
and its Underlying Principles
Rolling Wave Planning
Foundation Principles:
•
•
•
•
Project Time Management
Risk Management
Agile
Lean
Project Time Management
• Includes all processes required to
ensure timely completion of the
project
• The Work Breakdown Structure or
Project Scope feeds Project Time
Management
• Its critical Output is a Schedule
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Rolling Wave Project Management
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Why is Time Management
Important?
• Time is one of the big three of the triple
constraints:
• Time
• Cost
• Scope / Quality
• If activities take longer than planned, dates are
missed and project costs increase
• Helps to ensure efficient use of resources
• Hitting dates increases stakeholder confidence
Work Breakdown Structure
• Used to drive the list of activities
• The team breaks down the work packages to a
level where estimates can be made
• Using the WBS as the starting point helps ensure:
• The entire scope of work will be addressed
• No unnecessary work will be performed
Progressive Elaboration
• A technique in which the plan for the project is being
continuously and constantly modified, detailed, and
improved as newer and better information becomes
available.
• A plan that has the quality of being more accurate and
more complete.
• As a series of successive iterations unfold and more
and better information has been made available to the
project team, the plan unfolds.
• An important step to the project management planning
process as it takes a sketchy preliminary plan and
refines it.
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Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
Milestones
• Represent a significant event
• Need to accommodate the milestones in how
the work is planned
• When a milestone’s date is fixed, the activities
that lead up to it lose some of their flexibility
• Have zero duration
Project Schedule
The planned dates for performing schedule
activities and the planned dates for meeting
schedule milestones.
PMBOK® Guide, Glossary
Traditional Planning
Lack of Predictability – metrics not based in reality
– precision favored over accuracy – leads to poor
planning
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Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
Risk Management
• Projects have uncertainty
• Project risk management: systematic process to
plan, identify, analyze, respond to, and monitor
project risk
• Should be proactive
• Risk may be positive (opportunities) or negative
(threats)
• Project risk management objectives:
• Maximize the probability and impact of positive
events
• Minimize the probability and impact of adverse events
Risk and Cost in the
Project Life Cycle
Risk
Cost
Initiation
Planning
Execution
Completion
Sample Risk Events:
Do these types of events happen?
Project
Management Area
Common Risk Events
Can Rolling Wave help?
Integration
Inadequate planning
Scope
Poor requirements
definition
Time
Short deadlines
Cost
Poor estimating
Quality
Quality controls
HR
Project manager lacks
authority
No
Communications
Management
uninformed about risks
No
Procurement
Contractor insolvency
No
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Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
All of the Agile frameworks,
including Rolling Wave PM, are
built on the same Foundation
•
•
•
•
•
Just-in-Time
Self-organization
Collaboration
Prioritization
Timeboxing
Just-in-Time
Detailed up-front
planning and
defined processes
are replaced by
just-in-time
inspect and adapt
cycles
SelfOrganization
Small teams manage
their own workload
and organize
themselves around
clear goals
and constraints.
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Rolling Wave Project Management
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Collaboration
Everyone collabora
they do not manag
direct them
CC Pace Proprietary and Confidential
Prioritization
Work on
the most important
thing – do not
waste time
focusing on work
that does not add
immediate value
Timeboxing
Timeboxing creates the rhythm
that drives development
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Rolling Wave Project Management
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Agile Project Management
• Agile Goal
• In a partnership with a Project Owner create value in
a time boxed manner on small meaningful portion of
the scope until the Owner is satisfied the work is done
• What do Agile Teams do?
• Chunk project scope into small pieces
• Deliver customer value with each piece’s delivery
• Own and estimate all work
• Commit to delivering only on the immediate horizon
• Perform work in sprints
• Work as a team, preferably collocated
• Demonstrate work is done
• Reflect and improve their approach
Agile is Different
Cost is
Fixed
Schedule
is Fixed
Agile projects within an
organization provide a
flexible ability to:
• create and respond to
change through iterative
and incremental delivery
• focus on customer value
• collaborate
• utilize adaptive planning
Requirements are Flexible
Understanding Behavior/ Attitudes
• Traditional Project Measurements
•
•
•
•
EAC/ETC - Estimate At Completion/Estimate To Complete
SV/CV – Schedule and Cost Variance
SPI/CPI – Schedule and Cost Performance Indexes
EV – Earned Value
• Agile Measurements
• Burn down Run Chart
• Product Complete Run Chart
• Predictability Run Chart
• Productivity(Velocity) Run Chart
• Efficiency Run Chart
• Quality Control Charts
• Customer Satisfaction Trends
'Tell me how you will measure me
and I will tell you how I will behave.‘
- Eli Goldratt, The Goal
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Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
Why Does Agile Work?
Some Reasons
Projects Fail
Poor Communication
Traditional
Solutions
Status Meetings;
Communications Plan;
Stakeholder Meetings
Inadequate Resources Request and justify
additional resources
Unrealistic Deadlines
Lack of user
involvement
People Problems
Agile Solutions
Daily Meetings; BVCs;
Collaboration; In-Room/table
dialog; Retrospectives
Assign dedicated teams;
whatever team is available
only commits to work they can
do
Identify risk; Compute
additional resources
needed to make the
date; request; re-work
the schedule/budget
Deliver in time-boxes;
estimate completion range
based on team velocity;
negotiate scope
Request a project
sponsor or SME rep
Dedicated Product Owner
involved with the team on a
daily basis
PM
intervention/Coaching
Connectivity; Team Norms;
Collaboration; Co-location;
Retrospectives; Team SelfPolicing; Coaching
* Top 3 reasons from CompTIA survey, Mar 2007
** misc reasons from other sources
Some Key Benefits
• Early ROI
• Increased Control and Reduced Risk
• Improved Responsiveness to Change
• Rapid Learning
• Improved Communications
• Improved Quality
• Increased Morale
• Increased Productivity and Performance
• Satisfied Stakeholders
Lean Management
A Lean organization creates speed by
increasing process efficiency through
waste and defect elimination, customer
alignment, empowered workers and a
culture of continuous improvement:
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Rolling Wave Project Management
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Lean Management
Add nothing but value - Eliminate Waste – Waste is
defined as any process or activity that does not directly
generate business value.
Delay Commitment - pull From Demand – Respond to
present and actual needs, rather than forecasting to fulfill
future ones.
Center on the people who add value - Empower
Workers– Make workers responsible for their own
processes, providing only necessary guidelines.
Enable Continuous Improvement – Avoid heavy
methodologies and documentation-driven processes; make it
easy to adapt.
Lean Thinking Essentials
Lean Thinkers believe work is best done
when it is empirically focused by metrics
on the customer needs and expectations
while continually leaning out
waste, ceremony and complexity
Lean Thinking Essentials
A Lean Premise –
Processes over time accumulate a
significant amount
of waste, ceremony and complexity.
Lean Thinking uncovers the waste,
improves the flow of the process and
delivers more product in less time.
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Rolling Wave Project Management
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Consider This If you happen to be 10% efficient today and
you lean out and reach 35% efficiency….
That would be a 2.5 time improvement!
Take out the waste and you will be able to –
Be 2 ½ times faster in delivering your product
/service.
Lean Thinking Essentials
• Lean Thinking Goal
• Create a sustainable continuous flow of
customer valued products and services in an
effective and efficient manner
• What do Lean Thinkers do?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Own the process
Know what work creates value
Manage based on quantitative data
Keep value creation flowing
Continually remove waste, ceremony and complexity
Balance workload
Remove stresses
Improve quality
Rolling Wave uses the best
of what we have learned
from other domains to ..
•
•
•
•
•
Deliver projects faster, cheaper and better
Mitigate risks by only scheduling what you know
Use the Agilest mentality to deliver value
Apply Lean Principles and eliminating waste
Meet the intent of PMI’s Body of Knowledge on
Project Time Management while not using some
parts which can be bureaucratic
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Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
Rolling Wave Planning
• Rolling Wave Planning is a technique that enables
you to plan for a project as it unfolds.
• It helps you to mitigate the risks of :
•
•
•
•
•
Uncertainty as to what the project will require
Changes that are needed and approved
Incorrect Estimates
Ineffective or Wrong Resources
Corrective Actions Needed
• Its principles come from the agile and lean
methodologies along with formal project time
management and scheduling techniques
Rolling Wave Planning
• Requires that you to plan iteratively using a
techniques called progressive elaboration
• Does NOT detail plan the entire project
• Plans the details as you get some visibility to
the project and its implementation and lessons
learned
• Deliver something of value in each Wave
So don’t get to far over your skis!
The Slaven Group (c)
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Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
Rolling Wave Example
What makes it Rolling Wave PM?
This Example
• Its Characteristics:
• Clarity for the first three months
• You would plan only for those three months.
• As the project progresses and you gain more clarity,
you then plan for the remaining months.
• The Rolling Wave Planning technique uses
progressive elaboration, which is the act of
elaborating the work packages in greater detail as
the project unfolds.
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Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
Exemptions
• This method for planning does not exempt
you from creating a list of milestones and
assumptions for the entire project.
• As a matter of fact, it is necessary to
provide key milestones and assumptions as
they will help stakeholders see why you
are using Rolling Wave Planning and what
to expect as the project progresses.
Exercise
• For the project you identified earlier,
brainstorm the schedule for the next 3
months in detail and
• Schedule the rest of the project with 3
milestones?
Delivered Benefits
• This iterative approach to planning is
commonly found in most Agile Project
Methodologies
• Encourages adaptability
• Encourages planning
• Is great for R&D, High-Tech, and
Invention projects
• Is good for projects with changing scope
The Slaven Group (c)
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Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
Rolling Wave PM eliminates
much of the Excessive Costs
of Changes
Going Forward: Trends to
Consider…
• Project Management Goal
• Deliver On-time, On-budget, To-scope
• Rolling Wave Project Managers
• Builds a Project Plan but iterates it
• Works to improve the Project Plan in Waves
• Progressively Elaborate the Plan as more is
learned about scope, pace, requirements…..etc.
• Directs and Manages Project Work DAILY
• Monitors and Controls the Project Work Daily
Trends to consider…
• Generally Accepted Attitudes toward Lean
• Not all work is equal
• We can deliver more,… much, much more!
• We can be faster,… much, much faster!
• We need to continually measure, monitor and
improve
• Single data points are meaningless
• Remove or ruthlessly lessen the burden of
non-customer value add work
• Leaner brings Faster which improves Quality
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Rolling Wave Project Management
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When to use Rolling Wave?
• Rolling Wave Planning is used when you
just don’t have enough clarity to plan in
detail the entire project.
• This lack of clarity could come from
various factors, such as emerging
requirements.
• Rolling Wave Planning is particularly
useful in projects with high uncertainty.
• Therefore, you must use Risk Management
Best Practices.
Getting Started on Rolling
Wave (RWPM)
1. Develop
Internal
Capability
•
•
•
•
•
•
Consulting
Training
Project Coaching
Pilot Projects
Process Definition
Rollout & Scaling
2. Leverage External
Capability
•
•
•
•
Co-Sourced Rolling Wave Experts
Outsourced Rolling Wave PMs
Rolling Wave Coaching & Mentoring
Rolling Wave Capability and
Readiness Assessments
RWPM Transition Strategies
• Bottom-up Approach:
• Smaller, grassroots focus
• Pilot project team(s) selection and rollout
• Proof of concept win - gradually ramp-up a RWPM
capability
• Senior management support
• Top-down Approach:
• Establish PMO governance model and program
• RWPM integrated within PMO
• RWPM portfolio management
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Rolling Wave Project Management
10/13/2014
How and why might you
apply Rolling Wave?
• Open Discussion in Groups
• Debrief with the entire audience
Questions?
Comments?
Thank You!
Contact information:
Charlie Slaven
cslaven1@gmail.com
513 382 3511
W. Charles Slaven
MBA PMP CSSBB CPA (inactive)
Director, Lean Deployment and Continuous Improvement for
The Christ Hospital Health Network where leads the lean
process improvement projects needed to accomplish the
organization’s strategic plan.
He is a Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt and recently
completed his employment as a Master Process
Improvement Engineer with The Kroger Company.
Charles was a key leader in the implementation of the
Kroger Excellence Program which ultimately generated
tens of millions of dollars in real financial benefits.
He has led these initiatives at many public and private
organizations throughout the U.S., U.K., Europe,
Australia, Canada, SE Asia, South Africa, South America
and Japan in various industries and varied governmental
organizations.
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