Elections 2014 – Through a Civic Virtue Lens
Weighing Info – Handout 5
Polls: The Basics
Consider the information below, then discuss.
1. Consider factors that influence polls’ accuracy.
• Polling often takes on a partisan approach with polling organizations
reflecting the political parties. Who should you believe?
• Polls are date sensitive. Events tend to influence polls and the results might
lag. E.g. an unemployment report or a major disaster. Can you think of more?
2. Who is leading in the polls and by how much?
3. How much you think polls influence voters and why?
~~
Poll – noun, a sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected
or a random group of persons, as for the purpose of analysis
Source: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/poll
~~
Questions about polls’ accuracy arise when factors such as the following are
considered:
• sampling errors (group may be too small to make a generalization for the whole
group, for example)
• response bias (responder does not want to feel embarrassed by his or her answer
even though it reflects true feelings)
• wording of questions (“you will be voting in the election, won’t you?”)
Source: excerpted from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_pol
~~
Read and discuss this article, Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential
Race by Nate Silver, about how various polls performed in the 2012 Presidential elections.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worstin-the-2012-presidential-race/
1. Why did the polls that called cellphones fair better in accuracy than the ones that only
called landlines?
1
CLASSROOM LAW PROJECT
620 SW Main, Ste. 102, Portland, OR 97205
503-224-4424
www.classroomlaw.org
Elections 2014 – Through a Civic Virtue Lens
Weighing Info – Handout 5
2. Why do you think the polls conducted online turned out to be so much more accurate
than the ones conducted through traditional phoning methods?
3. Do you think there is a place left for polling conducted over the phone, or do you think
online polling will gradually phase it out? Explain.
~~
These articles consider polling data for the upcoming 2014 election nationwide.
Somebody Poll a Senate Race by Harry Enten, March 11, 2014,
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/somebody-poll-a-senate-race/ ; retrieved Sept. 1, 2014.
Senate Races in 2014 Lack (Good) Polling by Harry Enten, April 4, 2014,
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-races-in-2014-lack-good-polling/; retrieved
Sept. 1, 2014.
1. How important are accurate polls to you as a voter? Do you think it affects how people
vote?
2. How concerned should we be about the quality of polls available to the public?
~~
Projected Election Results in Oregon
Real Clear Politics* lists several individual survey results for elections
Poll
For Senate
Rasmussen Reports
SurveyUSA
CBSNews/NYT/YouGov
Date
Merkley (D)%
5/21 - 5/22
6/5 - 6/9
8/18 – 9/2
For Governor
47
50
51
Wehby (R)%
37
32
39
Spread
Merkley +10
Merkley +18
Merkley +12
Kitzhaber (D)% Richardson ®%
RCP Average
4/30 – 7/24
SurveyUSA
6/5 – 6/9
CBSNews/NYT/YouGov 8/18 – 9/2
49.3
48
48
37.3
35
42
Kitzhaber +12
Kitzhaber +13
Kitzhaber +6
Real Clear Politics on senator:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/or/oregon_senate_wheby_vs_merk
ley-5001.html;
Real Clear Politics on governor:
•
2
CLASSROOM LAW PROJECT
620 SW Main, Ste. 102, Portland, OR 97205
503-224-4424
www.classroomlaw.org
Elections 2014 – Through a Civic Virtue Lens
Weighing Info – Handout 5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/or/oregon_governor_richardson_vs_kit
zhaber-4999.html**September 3, 2010;
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/governor/oregon.
CBS News/New York Times Battleground Tracker,
https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/05/cbs-newsnew-york-times-battleground-tracker/ ;
retrieved September 15, 2014.
~~
Add an activity: conduct your own poll
Students should poll their classmates (small sample such as a group of five so that it is
quick and easy) on a topic that is important to them. Example: How will you vote if you are
asked if homework should be required every night in all classes?
Steps
1. Choose topic
2. Frame questions and design of the poll (survey). Will you have a range of agreement
and disagreement (1-5)? Will you ask respondents to tell you why? Etc.
3. Compile results
4. Analyze results
5. Were the responses what you predicted? How might you have influenced the answers
you received?
3
CLASSROOM LAW PROJECT
620 SW Main, Ste. 102, Portland, OR 97205
503-224-4424
www.classroomlaw.org