Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets August 2015 FAPRI‐MU Report #03‐15 Prepared by the Integrated Policy Group, Division of Applied Social Sciences University of Missouri www.fapri.missouri.edu amap.missouri.edu Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri (MU), 101 Park DeVille Drive, Suite E; Columbia, MO 65203. FAPRI–MU is part of the Division of Applied Social Sciences (DASS) in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources (CAFNR). http://www.fapri.missouri.edu This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 58‐0111‐14‐001. Any opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture nor the University of Missouri. The crop and biofuel projections in this report were prepared by the team at FAPRI‐MU, including Pat Westhoff (westhoffp@missouri.edu), Scott Gerlt (gerlts@missouri.edu), Jarrett Whistance (jwxbb@mail.missouri.edu), Julian Binfield (binfieldj@missouri.edu), Deepayan Debnath (debnathd@missouri.edu), Sera Chiuchiarelli (chiuchiarellis@missouri.edu) and Kateryna Schroeder (schroederkg@missouri.edu). The livestock, poultry, dairy and consumer price projections were prepared by the MU Agricultural Markets and Policy (AMAP) team, including Scott Brown (brownsc@missouri.edu) and Daniel Madison (madisondc@missouri.edu). FAPRI‐MU and AMAP are both part of the Integrated Policy Group in the MU Division of Applied Social Sciences. U.S. grains, oilseeds and cotton trade figures reported here were prepared with the help of Mike Helmar (mhelmar@cabnr.unr.edu) at the University of Nevada, Reno. Eric Wailes (ewailes@uark.edu) and Ed de la Cuesta Chavez (echavez@uark.edu) provided input for the rice projections. Permission is granted to reproduce this information with appropriate attribution to the authors and FAPRI–MU. The University of Missouri does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, age, genetics information, disability or status as a protected veteran. For more information, call Human Resource Services at 573‐882‐4256 or the US Department of Education, Office of Civil Rights.
Summary Prices for grains, oilseeds, cotton, milk and hogs have declined sharply from record levels set in recent years, and no quick price recovery is expected. This report provides an update of the 2015 FAPRI‐MU long‐term baseline to reflect information available in mid‐August 2015. The baseline update uses 2015 acreage, yield and production estimates included in USDA’s August 2015 Crop Production report. It assumes that current agricultural and biofuel policies will continue, and that the global economy will evolve as forecast by IHS Global Insight in July 2015. Given all of the assumptions of the analysis, here are a few highlights of the results: 




Projected corn prices remain near the 2014/15 level of $3.70 per bushel for another two years, and only exceed $4 per bushel in 2018/19. U.S. corn acreage increases to more than 90 million acres in 2016 at the expense of other crops. Large global oilseed supplies contribute to a reduction in projected soybean prices, which fall to $9.12 per bushel in 2015/16 and remain near that level in 2016/17. Projected wheat prices also decline, to $5.10 per bushel for the 2015/16 crop, as U.S. stocks rise to the highest levels since 2010. A smaller U.S. crop contributes to a modest increase in cotton prices in 2015/16 to 65 cents per pound, but larger Chinese stock levels continue to weigh on global markets. Ethanol production prospects depend, in part, on EPA decisions about how to implement the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Lower oil prices increase gasoline consumption and the use of ethanol in 10‐percent blends, but discourage higher‐level blends and ethanol exports. 
Increased production and a stronger dollar have contributed to sharply lower U.S. hog and milk prices in 2015. Projected prices for both remain far below the record levels of 2014. 
As U.S. cattle numbers and beef production expand, cattle prices decline from record levels. Projected fed cattle prices decline from $157 per hundredweight in 2015 to $122 by 2020. As retail prices for meat, milk and other products moderate, projected consumer food price inflation drops to 1.9 percent in 2015 and 1.3 percent in 2016. 
This baseline update provides a snapshot of what agricultural markets might look like under a particular set of assumptions. As more is learned about the size of the 2015 crop, the implementation of policies and the outlook for the general economy, these projections will need to be updated. In the meantime, they can be used as a point of reference in examining alternative scenarios. For more detail on the livestock, poultry and dairy sectors and on consumer food prices, see a companion report by the MU Agricultural Markets and Policy team, at http://amap.missouri.edu/. 1 Table of contents Macroeconomic assumptions Policy assumptions U.S. corn supply and use U.S. soybean supply and use U.S. wheat supply and use U.S. upland cotton supply and use U.S. rice supply and use Other U.S. feed grains supply and use Other U.S. oilseeds supply and use U.S. hay supply and use U.S. crop farm prices U.S. soybean product supply and use U.S. biomass‐based diesel supply and use U.S. ethanol supply and use U.S. beef sector U.S. pork sector U.S. poultry supply and use U.S. per‐capita meat consumption U.S. dairy sector U.S. consumer food price inflation 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 A few words about policy and macroeconomic assumptions The baseline update incorporates current policies, including provisions of the Agricultural Act of 2014 (the 2014 farm bill) and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The estimates here reflect available information about program implementation, such as the result of elections made by crop producers who had to choose between Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC). There remains considerable uncertainty about future implementation of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). This baseline assumes RFS requirements for 2014‐2016 (and 2017 in the case of biomass‐based diesel) are implemented as proposed by the EPA in May 2015. Beyond 2016, modest growth rates are assumed for the overall and advanced requirements while the biomass‐based diesel requirement is held steady at the 2017 level. Furthermore, the expired biodiesel blenders tax credit is not renewed or reflected in these market projections. The macroeconomic forecast underlying this baseline was prepared by IHS Global Insight before the market turbulence of August 2015. As a result, there may be more uncertainty than usual regarding assumed levels of economic growth, exchange rates, oil prices and other indicators. 2 Macroeconomic assumptions*
Calendar year
2013
2014
2015
Real GDP growth
United S tates
China
World
2.2
7.7
2.6
2.4
7.4
2.8
2.2
6.5
2.6
U.S. CP I inflation
1.5
1.6
0.2
U.S. interest rates
Federal funds rate
Prime rate
0.1
3.3
0.1
3.3
0.3
3.3
0.75
2.16
6.15
0.75
2.35
6.16
0.91
3.08
6.21
Exchange rates
Euro
Brazilian real
Chinese yuan
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2.7
6.5
3.4
2.5
6.5
3.5
2.5
6.8
3.6
2.5
6.8
3.6
1.8
2.3
2.5
2.4
2.0
1.2
4.2
2.7
5.7
3.5
6.5
3.5
6.5
3.5
6.5
(Currenc y per dollar)
0.90
0.84
3.18
3.22
6.29
6.31
0.78
3.25
6.27
0.75
3.30
6.21
0.74
3.39
6.14
2018
2019
2020
93.40
96.90
57.54
93.40
96.90
57.54
93.40
96.90
57.54
3.70
8.40
5.50
3.70
8.40
5.50
3.70
8.40
5.50
23.0
23.0
23.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
17.4
3.3
1.8
14.1
17.5
3.3
1.8
14.1
17.6
3.3
1.8
14.2
(Perc ent)
3.1
6.3
3.3
*S ourc e: IHS Global Insight forec ast, July 2015
Policy assumptions
Year
2013
2014
2015
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
93.40
96.90
57.54
(Perc ent of base ac res)
93.40
93.40
93.40
96.90
96.90
96.90
57.54
57.54
57.54
Target or reference prices
Corn
S oybeans
Wheat
2.63
6.00
4.17
3.70
8.40
5.50
Conservation reserve area
26.8
25.4
Biodiesel tax credit
1.00
1.00
(Dollars per bushel)
3.70
3.70
8.40
8.40
5.50
5.50
(Million ac res)
24.2
24.0
23.0
(Dollars per gallon)
0.00
0.00
0.00
Renewable fuel standard Overall Advanc ed biofuels
Biomass‐based diesel
Conventional biofuel ʺgapʺ
16.4
2.7
1.3
13.7
15.4
2.5
1.6
12.8
15.8
2.8
1.6
13.0
ARC participation rate
Corn
S oybeans
Wheat
2016
2017
3.70
8.40
5.50
(Billion gallons)
17.0
17.3
3.3
3.3
1.7
1.8
13.6
14.0
3 U.S. corn supply and use
S eptember‐August year
13/14
14/15
Area
Planted area
Harvested area
95.4
87.5
90.6
83.1
158.1
171.0
Supply
Beginning stoc ks
Produc tion
Imports
14,686
821
13,829
36
Domestic use
Feed and residual
Ethanol and c oproduc ts
HFCS
S eed
Food and other
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
90.3
82.3
90.2
82.3
171.9
173.7
15,477
1,232
14,216
30
15,754
1,574
14,150
30
15,899
1,577
14,292
30
11,534
5,030
5,134
477
23
869
11,855
5,300
5,200
470
23
862
11,883
5,269
5,253
471
23
868
11,916
5,319
5,240
462
23
873
11,915
5,270
5,283
464
23
875
11,969
5,276
5,321
469
23
880
11,994
5,291
5,325
470
23
886
12,012
5,286
5,341
470
23
892
1,920
1,850
1,886
1,872
1,947
2,063
2,183
2,281
13,454
13,705
13,769
13,788
13,861
14,032
14,177
14,293
1,232
78
1,154
1,772
120
1,652
1,720
118
1,602
1,734
115
1,619
1,612
94
1,519
1,574
86
1,489
1,577
84
1,493
1,606
85
1,520
4.46
1.95
2.63
3.70
1.95
3.70
4.09
1.95
3.70
4.14
1.95
3.70
4.13
1.95
3.70
93.40
93.40
93.40
696.32
356.44
339.87
711.34
368.44
342.90
716.82
375.84
340.98
Exports
Ending stocks
Under loan
Other stoc ks
P rices, program provisions
Farm pric e
Loan rate
Target or referenc e pric e
ARC participation rate
Market returns
Gross market revenue/a.
Variable expenses/a.
Market net return/a.
16/17
(Million ac res)
88.9
90.5
89.2
90.1
81.1
82.6
81.3
82.1
(Bushels per harvested ac re)
168.8
166.8
168.6
170.1
(Million bushels)
15,488
15,522
15,474
15,606
1,772
1,720
1,734
1,612
13,686
13,772
13,710
13,964
30
30
30
30
Yield
Total use
15/16
n.a.
705.28
358.72
346.56
93.40
632.67
360.08
272.59
(Dollars per bushel)
3.71
3.96
1.95
1.95
3.70
3.70
(Perc ent of base ac res)
93.40
93.40
93.40
3.68
1.95
3.70
620.87
340.05
280.82
(Dollars)
619.35
667.80
339.58
346.23
279.77
321.58
4 U.S. soybean supply and use
S eptember‐August year
13/14
14/15
Area
Planted area
Harvested area
76.8
76.3
83.7
83.1
Yield
44.0
47.8
Supply
Beginning stoc ks
Produc tion
Imports
3,570
141
3,358
72
Domestic use
Crush
S eed and residual
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
83.7
82.9
83.7
82.9
83.8
83.0
45.8
46.2
46.6
4,091
92
3,969
30
(Million ac res)
84.3
82.4
83.5
83.5
81.6
82.7
(Bushels per harvested ac re)
46.9
44.9
45.4
(Million bushels)
4,186
4,096
4,085
240
401
301
3,916
3,665
3,754
30
30
30
4,106
280
3,796
30
4,132
273
3,830
30
4,170
270
3,870
30
1,840
1,734
106
2,026
1,845
181
2,013
1,867
145
2,010
1,867
143
2,009
1,867
142
2,009
1,868
142
2,023
1,880
143
2,034
1,890
144
Exports
1,638
1,825
1,773
1,785
1,796
1,824
1,839
1,867
Total use
3,478
3,851
3,786
3,794
3,805
3,833
3,862
3,902
92
3
89
240
11
229
401
16
385
301
15
286
280
12
268
273
11
262
270
11
259
268
11
257
13.00
13.82
5.00
6.00
10.05
10.13
5.00
8.40
10.31
10.55
5.00
8.40
10.42
10.65
5.00
8.40
10.50
10.73
5.00
8.40
n.a.
96.90
96.90
96.90
96.90
Market returns
Gross market revenue/a.
Variable expenses/a.
Market net return/a.
572.49
183.21
389.28
480.21
183.20
297.01
427.35
170.93
256.42
(Dollars)
410.98
453.01
170.58
174.72
240.40
278.28
472.09
180.21
291.88
481.34
185.60
295.75
489.85
187.79
302.06
Other indicators
S oybean/c orn pric e ratio
48% soymeal pric e, $/ton
S oybean oil price, c ents/lb.
Crushing margin, $/bu.
2.91
489.94
38.23
2.11
2.72
370.00
32.00
2.39
2.48
326.73
30.47
1.79
2.46
330.67
29.25
1.84
2.52
360.38
32.47
1.79
2.52
365.85
32.86
1.86
2.55
364.19
33.87
1.85
Ending stocks
Under loan
Other stoc ks
P rices, program provisions
Farm pric e
Illinois proc essor pric e
Loan rate
Target or referenc e pric e
ARC participation rate
(Dollars per bushel)
9.12
9.15
9.98
9.51
9.42
10.22
5.00
5.00
5.00
8.40
8.40
8.40
(Perc ent of base ac res)
96.90
96.90
96.90
2.52
352.09
31.78
1.84
5 U.S. wheat supply and use
June‐May year
13/14
14/15
Area
Planted area
Harvested area
56.2
45.3
56.8
46.4
Yield
47.1
43.7
Supply
Beginning stoc ks
Produc tion
Imports
3,022
718
2,135
169
Domestic use
Feed and residual
S eed
Food and other
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
54.3
45.8
54.6
46.0
46.9
47.3
2,760
590
2,026
144
(Million ac res)
56.1
53.9
54.2
54.0
48.5
45.5
45.7
45.5
(Bushels per harvested ac re)
44.1
45.9
46.3
46.6
(Million bushels)
3,017
3,053
3,086
3,087
753
837
844
835
2,136
2,088
2,113
2,120
128
128
129
132
3,094
811
2,149
134
3,111
798
2,179
135
1,255
223
77
955
1,154
115
81
958
1,257
213
76
969
1,272
220
76
975
1,281
223
76
982
1,276
211
77
988
1,274
201
77
995
1,278
198
78
1,002
Exports
1,176
854
923
938
970
1,000
1,023
1,038
Total use
2,431
2,008
2,180
2,209
2,251
2,276
2,297
2,316
Ending stocks
Under loan
Other stoc ks
590
8
582
753
21
731
837
33
804
844
33
811
835
30
805
811
25
785
798
24
774
796
23
772
P rices, program provisions
Farm pric e
Loan rate
Target or referenc e pric e
6.87
2.94
4.17
5.99
2.94
5.50
5.55
2.94
5.50
5.72
2.94
5.50
5.76
2.94
5.50
57.54
57.54
57.54
258.48
126.76
131.71
268.51
130.63
137.87
272.65
132.11
140.54
ARC participation rate
Market returns
Gross market revenue/a.
Variable expenses/a.
Market net return/a.
n.a.
323.55
130.33
193.22
57.54
261.61
128.78
132.83
(Dollars per bushel)
5.05
5.24
2.94
2.94
5.50
5.50
(Perc ent of base ac res)
57.54
57.54
57.54
5.10
2.94
5.50
224.79
120.76
104.04
(Dollars)
231.86
242.47
120.25
122.95
111.62
119.53
6 U.S. upland cotton supply and use
August‐July year
13/14
14/15
19/20
20/21
Area
Planted area
Harvested area
10.21
7.35
10.85
9.16
9.26
7.71
9.27
7.72
802
826
842
851
15.89
3.61
12.28
0.01
18.09
2.33
15.75
0.01
16.66
3.13
13.52
0.01
16.75
3.07
13.68
0.01
Domestic use
Mill use
3.53
3.53
3.66
3.76
3.81
3.80
3.77
3.73
Exports
9.85
10.80
9.38
9.00
9.48
9.76
9.82
9.90
13.38
14.33
13.05
12.75
13.29
13.56
13.59
13.63
Unaccounted
0.19
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ending stocks
2.33
3.43
3.04
3.07
3.31
3.13
3.07
3.12
P rices, program provisions
Farm pric e
Loan rate
Direc t payment or CTAP
User payment
77.9
52.0
6.7
3.0
60.5
52.0
9.0
3.0
65.1
52.0
n.a.
3.0
65.8
52.0
n.a.
3.0
67.1
52.0
n.a.
3.0
67.2
52.0
n.a.
3.0
Market returns
Gross market revenue/a.
Variable expenses/a.
Market net return/a.
765.66
512.08
253.58
608.16
534.17
73.99
Yield
Supply
Beginning stoc ks
Produc tion
Imports
Total use
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
(Million ac res)
8.75
9.09
9.47
9.27
7.75
7.56
7.89
7.71
(Pounds per harvested ac re)
784
812
823
832
(Million bales)
16.09
15.83
16.61
16.69
3.43
3.04
3.07
3.31
12.65
12.78
13.53
13.37
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
613.55
505.91
107.64
(Cents per pound)
63.8
63.1
52.0
52.0
n.a.
n.a.
3.0
3.0
(Dollars)
623.95
632.73
509.36
524.82
114.59
107.91
666.90
542.46
124.44
686.50
559.66
126.84
695.33
569.07
126.26
7 U.S. rice supply and use
August‐July year
13/14
14/15
Area
Planted area
Harvested area
2.49
2.47
2.94
2.92
Yield
7,694
7,572
Supply
Beginning stoc ks
Produc tion
Imports
249.5
36.4
190.0
23.1
277.9
31.8
221.0
25.0
(Million ac res)
2.77
2.91
2.89
2.88
2.74
2.89
2.86
2.86
(Pounds per harvested ac re)
7,472
7,603
7,685
7,757
(Million hundredweight)
278.4
288.5
292.2
295.4
47.9
43.3
46.3
47.5
205.0
219.7
220.1
221.6
25.5
25.5
25.8
26.2
Domestic use
124.4
129.0
129.4
129.7
130.9
93.3
101.0
105.7
112.5
217.7
230.0
235.1
31.8
47.9
43.3
16.30
15.40
19.20
Exports
Total use
Ending stocks
P rices, program provisions
Farm pric e
Long grain
Medium and short grain
Adjusted world pric e
Long grain
Medium and short grain
Loan rate
Target or referenc e pric e
Long grain
Japonic a
Other medium, short grain
ARC participation rate
Market returns
Gross market revenue/a.
Variable expenses/a.
Market net return/a.
19/20
20/21
2.88
2.85
2.90
2.88
7,813
7,879
297.7
48.0
223.0
26.7
302.2
48.4
226.7
27.1
131.3
132.0
133.1
113.8
116.1
117.2
119.4
242.2
244.7
247.4
249.3
252.5
46.3
47.5
48.0
48.4
49.7
13.30
11.90
17.90
(Dollars per hundredweight)
13.78
13.84
13.71
14.06
11.95
12.45
12.33
12.79
18.65
17.73
17.62
17.56
14.26
13.08
17.71
14.32
13.16
17.83
11.77
12.08
6.50
10.56
10.78
6.50
10.17
10.45
6.50
12.18
10.18
6.50
12.60
10.27
6.50
12.83
10.35
6.50
10.50
10.50
10.50
14.00
16.10
14.00
14.00
16.10
14.00
14.00
16.10
14.00
14.00
16.10
14.00
14.00
16.10
14.00
4.90
4.90
4.90
1090.83
557.48
533.34
1113.87
579.46
534.41
1128.54
582.87
545.67
n.a.
1254.05
581.78
672.27
4.90
1007.11
574.13
432.98
15/16
16/17
11.39
10.29
6.50
17/18
11.60
10.22
6.50
14.00
14.00
16.10
16.10
14.00
14.00
(Perc ent of base ac res)
4.90
4.90
4.90
1029.98
505.46
524.52
(Dollars)
1052.12 1053.24
515.06
532.88
537.06
520.35
18/19
8 Other U.S. feed grains supply and use
Marketing year
13/14
14/15
Sorghum
Planted area
Harvested area
8.08
6.59
7.14
6.40
Yield
59.6
67.6
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Exports
Ending stoc ks
392
0
162
211
34
433
0
100
350
17
Farm pric e
Target or referenc e pric e
4.28
2.63
4.00
3.95
Barley
Planted area
Harvested area
3.53
3.04
2.98
2.44
Yield
71.3
72.4
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Exports
Ending stoc ks
217
19
219
14
82
177
24
190
14
79
Farm pric e
Target or referenc e pric e
6.06
2.63
5.30
4.95
Oats
Planted area
Harvested area
2.98
1.01
2.72
1.03
Yield
64.1
67.7
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Exports
Ending stoc ks
65
97
172
2
25
70
107
146
2
54
Farm pric e
Target or referenc e pric e
3.75
1.79
3.21
2.40
15/16
16/17
17/18
(Million ac res)
8.74
8.33
7.95
7.67
6.81
6.51
(Bushels per harvested ac re)
74.6
64.0
64.1
(Million bushels)
573
436
418
0
0
0
118
122
130
434
318
293
38
35
30
(Dollars per bushel)
3.90
3.73
3.90
3.95
3.95
3.95
(Million ac res)
3.41
3.58
3.44
2.92
3.10
2.97
(Bushels per harvested ac re)
71.8
71.6
72.3
(Million bushels)
210
222
215
21
17
16
212
216
213
16
19
20
81
85
83
(Dollars per bushel)
4.58
4.40
4.62
4.95
4.95
4.95
(Million ac res)
3.06
2.95
2.95
1.22
1.16
1.15
(Bushels per harvested ac re)
70.0
65.0
65.6
(Million bushels)
85
76
75
93
98
99
172
169
172
2
2
2
59
62
63
(Dollars per bushel)
2.35
2.66
2.72
2.40
2.40
2.40
18/19
19/20
20/21
7.91
6.48
7.85
6.44
7.81
6.40
64.1
64.3
64.5
416
0
131
287
28
414
0
131
283
27
413
0
126
286
28
4.02
3.95
4.04
3.95
4.04
3.95
3.44
2.97
3.39
2.92
3.38
2.92
72.7
73.3
73.8
216
16
213
19
82
214
16
212
19
81
215
16
212
19
82
4.75
4.95
4.83
4.95
4.83
4.95
2.89
1.11
2.84
1.09
2.83
1.09
66.0
66.5
67.0
74
100
171
2
62
73
100
171
2
62
73
99
170
2
62
2.77
2.40
2.80
2.40
2.80
2.40
9 Other U.S. oilseeds supply and use
Marketing year
13/14
14/15
1.07
1.04
1.35
1.33
Yield
4,001
3,932
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Exports
Ending stoc ks
4,173
88
4,079
1,096
1,858
5,210
85
4,179
1,110
1,864
Farm pric e
Target or referenc e pric e
24.90
24.75
22.00
26.75
1.58
1.46
1.56
1.51
Yield
1,380
1,469
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Exports
Ending stoc ks
2,022
143
2,039
265
201
2,215
163
2,133
265
181
Farm pric e
Target or referenc e pric e
21.40
12.68
22.25
20.15
1.35
1.26
1.71
1.56
Yield
1,748
1,614
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Exports
Ending stoc ks
2,211
2,044
3,798
351
285
2,511
1,698
3,907
344
243
Farm pric e
Target or referenc e pric e
20.60
12.68
17.00
20.15
P eanuts
Planted area
Harvested area
Sunflowerseed
Planted area
Harvested area
Canola
Planted area
Harvested area
15/16
16/17
17/18
(Million ac res)
1.60
1.45
1.38
1.57
1.42
1.34
(Pounds per harvested ac re)
3,950
3,827
3,880
(Million pounds)
6,181
5,431
5,206
85
85
85
4,438
4,399
4,371
1,150
1,151
1,137
2,542
2,507
2,291
(Cents per pound)
20.02
19.61
21.27
26.75
26.75
26.75
(Million ac res)
1.68
1.80
1.77
1.61
1.67
1.65
(Pounds per harvested ac re)
1,474
1,559
1,568
(Million pounds)
2,376
2,610
2,589
163
163
163
2,194
2,323
2,351
354
422
410
171
201
191
(Cents per pound)
19.10
19.02
19.84
20.15
20.15
20.15
(Million ac res)
1.57
1.68
1.65
1.52
1.60
1.57
(Bushels per harvested ac re)
1,648
1,686
1,695
(Million bushels)
2,511
2,704
2,657
1,676
1,582
1,637
3,858
3,910
3,936
338
374
358
235
238
238
(Dollars per bushel)
16.68
16.54
17.05
20.15
20.15
20.15
18/19
19/20
20/21
1.37
1.34
1.40
1.36
1.42
1.38
3,931
3,987
4,042
5,259
85
4,392
1,119
2,124
5,439
85
4,437
1,106
2,105
5,580
85
4,507
1,118
2,146
22.36
26.75
23.13
26.75
22.95
26.75
1.74
1.62
1.72
1.60
1.72
1.59
1,572
1,579
1,588
2,544
163
2,341
369
189
2,518
163
2,329
355
186
2,533
163
2,352
343
187
20.18
20.15
20.60
20.15
20.79
20.15
1.63
1.56
1.63
1.55
1.64
1.56
1,702
1,709
1,717
2,646
1,659
3,954
351
238
2,651
1,666
3,970
347
237
2,676
1,674
4,002
347
238
17.52
20.15
18.06
20.15
18.26
20.15
10 U.S. hay supply and use
May‐April year
13/14
14/15
15/16
Area harvested
57.90
57.09
56.54
2.33
2.45
2.51
135.0
130.0
19.2
139.8
134.5
24.5
142.1
140.9
25.7
176.00
172.00
155.90
Yield
Produc tion
Disappearanc e
Ending stoc ks
All hay pric e
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
57.47
57.69
57.85
2.43
2.44
2.46
139.9
140.3
23.4
141.0
141.1
23.3
142.1
141.9
23.5
170.35
173.84
174.46
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
(Million ac res)
90.45
89.18
82.36
83.46
53.95
54.15
9.09
9.47
8.33
7.95
3.58
3.44
2.95
2.95
2.91
2.89
1.80
1.77
1.45
1.38
1.68
1.65
1.23
1.25
0.89
0.87
90.06
83.74
53.98
9.27
7.91
3.44
2.89
2.88
1.74
1.37
1.63
1.26
0.85
90.29
83.68
54.31
9.26
7.85
3.39
2.84
2.88
1.72
1.40
1.63
1.26
0.84
90.22
83.77
54.56
9.27
7.81
3.38
2.83
2.90
1.72
1.42
1.64
1.26
0.83
(Million ac res)
56.92
57.18
(Tons per ac re)
2.41
2.42
(Million tons)
137.4
138.6
138.6
139.3
24.5
23.8
(Dollars per ton)
155.39
164.16
U.S. planted and idled area
Marketing year
13/14
14/15
15/16
P lanted area
Corn S oybeans
Wheat
Upland c otton
S orghum
Barley
Oats
Ric e
S unflower seed
Peanuts
Canola
S ugar beets
S ugarc ane harvested
95.37
76.84
56.24
10.21
8.08
3.53
2.98
2.49
1.58
1.07
1.35
1.20
0.91
90.60
83.70
56.82
10.85
7.14
2.98
2.72
2.94
1.56
1.35
1.71
1.16
0.87
88.90
84.34
56.08
8.75
8.74
3.41
3.06
2.77
1.68
1.60
1.57
1.16
0.90
261.82
264.41
262.96
260.68
260.40
261.02
261.35
261.61
57.90
57.09
56.54
56.92
57.18
57.47
57.69
57.85
319.72
321.50
319.50
317.60
317.58
318.49
319.04
319.45
26.84
25.45
24.24
24.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
346.56
346.95
343.74
341.60
340.58
341.49
342.04
342.45
6.81
5.61
4.95
4.85
5.01
5.08
5.11
5.14
339.75
341.34
338.79
336.75
335.57
336.42
336.93
337.31
13‐crop planted
Hay area harvested
13 crops + hay
Conservation reserve (CRP )
13 crops + hay + CRP Double crop area
Total minus double crop
16/17
11 U.S. crop farm prices
Marketing year
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
Corn ($/bu.)
S oybeans ($/bu.)
Wheat ($/bu.)
Durum
Other spring
Winter
4.46
13.00
6.87
7.46
6.73
6.89
3.70
10.05
5.99
8.81
5.75
5.92
3.68
9.12
5.10
6.31
5.38
4.94
3.71
9.15
5.05
6.01
5.35
4.91
3.96
9.98
5.24
6.23
5.55
5.09
4.09
10.31
5.55
6.61
5.87
5.39
4.14
10.42
5.72
6.82
6.05
5.56
4.13
10.50
5.76
6.87
6.09
5.59
Upland c otton (c ents/lb.)
S orghum ($/bu.)
Ric e ($/c wt)
Long grain Medium/short (exc . Japonic a)
Japonic a
77.90
4.28
16.30
15.40
15.70
20.70
60.50
4.00
13.30
11.90
14.60
20.50
65.07
3.90
13.78
11.95
14.81
21.01
63.78
3.73
13.84
12.45
14.95
19.44
63.10
3.90
13.71
12.33
14.86
19.31
65.84
4.02
14.06
12.79
14.81
19.25
67.07
4.04
14.26
13.08
14.92
19.40
67.22
4.04
14.32
13.16
15.03
19.54
Barley ($/bu.)
Oats ($/bu.)
Peanuts (c ents/lb.)
S unflower seed ($/c wt)
Canola ($/c wt)
6.06
3.75
24.90
21.40
20.60
5.30
3.21
22.00
22.25
17.00
4.58
2.35
20.02
19.10
16.68
4.40
2.66
19.61
19.02
16.54
4.62
2.72
21.27
21.27
17.05
4.75
2.77
22.36
20.18
17.52
4.83
2.80
23.13
20.60
18.06
4.83
2.80
22.95
20.79
18.26
Flaxseed ($/bu.)
Lentils ($/c wt)
S afflower ($/c wt)
Mustard seed ($/cwt)
Dry peas ($/c wt)
13.80
19.80
27.90
37.20
14.60
11.80
24.40
25.00
35.00
12.00
9.86
19.03
23.44
32.81
10.82
10.11
19.03
23.44
32.79
10.79
10.64
19.95
24.47
34.01
11.29
10.91
20.45
25.03
34.79
11.71
11.01
20.64
25.24
35.12
11.91
11.07
20.74
25.36
35.27
11.98
Rapeseed ($/c wt)
Large c hic kpeas ($/c wt)
S mall c hic kpeas ($/c wt)
Crambe ($/c wt)
S esame seed ($/c wt)
25.10
31.20
22.90
35.10
44.00
23.70
28.80
20.70
28.40
46.00
19.40
24.93
18.00
26.31
37.79
19.37
24.86
17.95
26.25
37.71
20.76
26.07
18.85
27.45
39.46
21.31
27.03
19.57
28.41
40.81
21.49
27.48
19.91
28.86
41.43
21.68
27.64
20.03
29.02
41.66
12 U.S. soybean product supply and use
Oc tober‐S eptember year
13/14
14/15
15/16
Soybean meal
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Exports
Ending stoc ks
40,685
383
29,547
11,546
250
44,200
350
31,850
12,650
300
Soybean oil
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Biodiesel
Food and other
Exports
Ending stoc ks
20,130
165
18,958
5,010
13,948
1,877
1,165
Decatur prices
S oybean meal 48% protein
S oybean oil
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
44,425
325
32,911
11,839
300
(Thousand tons)
44,415
44,419
325
325
33,803
33,888
10,937
10,862
300
294
44,425
325
34,108
10,641
295
44,721
325
34,320
10,724
297
44,958
325
34,640
10,640
300
21,055
250
19,000
5,000
14,000
1,950
1,520
21,642
200
19,464
5,131
14,333
2,086
1,813
(Million pounds)
21,637
21,639
200
200
19,684
20,004
5,102
5,362
14,581
14,642
2,207
1,886
1,760
1,709
21,642
200
20,000
5,272
14,728
1,820
1,731
21,786
200
19,964
5,123
14,840
1,997
1,757
21,902
200
19,900
4,972
14,928
2,225
1,733
489.94
370.00
326.73
360.38
365.85
364.19
38.23
32.00
32.47
32.86
33.87
(Dollars per ton)
330.67
352.09
(Cents per pound)
30.47
29.25
31.78
U.S. biomass‐based diesel supply and use
Calendar year
2013
2014
2015
Supply and use
Produc tion
Biodiesel
From soybean oil
From c orn oil
From other fats and oils
Cellulosic diesel Renewable diesel
Net exports
Domestic disappearanc e
Ending stoc ks
1,776
1,359
715
138
506
0
417
‐146
1,820
160
1,606
1,240
624
126
490
0
366
‐130
1,768
127
4.63
3.03
0.73
3.47
2.82
0.56
P rices and RIN values
Biodiesel rac k, Des Moines
#2 diesel, refiner sales
Biodiesel RIN (per RIN gal.)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1,732
1,376
658
247
471
0
356
‐76
1,738
197
(Million gallons)
1,760
1,818
1,404
1,450
669
660
257
306
478
484
1
2
355
366
‐69
‐48
1,844
1,873
182
175
1,881
1,497
708
299
489
4
380
9
1,875
171
1,891
1,490
677
324
489
6
395
31
1,862
170
1,915
1,496
662
349
486
8
410
55
1,861
169
2.96
1.73
0.84
(Dollars per gallon)
3.04
3.11
1.87
2.03
0.88
0.82
3.17
2.31
0.72
3.22
2.54
0.64
3.27
2.46
0.74
13 U.S. ethanol supply and use
Calendar year
2013
2014
97.96
100.47
92.97
92.23
2.90
3.53
2.66
3.37
Motor gasoline supplied
135,563
136,782
Ethanol supply and use
Produc tion From c orn
From other feedstoc ks
Cellulosic
Imports 13,526
13,235
292
0
377
14,334
14,243
90
1
60
14,496
14,422
71
3
62
14,473
14,398
66
9
63
Domestic disappearanc e
In low‐level blends
In flex fuel vehic les
Exports 13,449
13,277
172
619
13,449
13,272
176
847
13,825
13,645
180
725
Ending stoc ks
690
787
795
Ethanol prices
Conventional rac k, Omaha
Other advanc ed rac k
Effec tive retail
Ethanol/gasoline retail ratio
2.47
2.57
2.49
0.71
2.34
2.40
2.56
0.76
RIN values
Conventional ethanol
Other advanc ed ethanol
0.60
0.71
0.49
0.54
P etroleum fuel prices
Petroleum, W. Texas interm.
Petroleum, refiners ac quisition
Unl. gasoline, FOB Omaha
Unleaded gasoline, retail
2015
2018
2019
2020
2017
78.03
77.31
87.39
86.31
84.04
82.26
2.26
2.87
2.48
3.11
2.40
3.06
141,674
140,733
139,921
14,479
14,396
65
19
67
14,708
14,613
63
31
64
14,805
14,702
61
42
61
14,822
14,712
58
52
58
13,942
13,758
184
588
13,936
13,752
184
603
14,087
13,895
192
677
14,145
13,948
198
713
14,170
13,966
203
704
802
808
815
822
829
1.85
2.16
1.99
0.81
(Dollars per gallon)
1.83
1.84
2.25
2.52
2.02
2.31
0.82
0.89
1.91
2.44
2.34
0.81
1.94
2.35
2.34
0.75
1.96
2.22
2.13
0.70
0.53
0.84
(Dollars per gallon)
0.46
0.14
0.88
0.82
0.19
0.72
0.22
0.64
0.48
0.74
(Dollars per barrel)
57.92
66.17
58.35
66.08
(Dollars per gallon)
1.79
1.81
1.98
2.46
2.45
2.59
(Million gallons)
140,189 140,512 141,648
54.62
52.17
14 2016
U.S. beef sector
Calendar year
2013
2014
2015
Beef cows (Jan. 1)
Dairy cows (Jan. 1)
Cattle and calves (Jan. 1)
29.6
9.2
90.1
29.1
9.2
88.5
25,790
2,250
25,475
2,589
584
Beef supply and use
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Exports
Ending stoc ks
P rices
Total all grades, 5‐area
direc t steers
600 ‐ 650 lb. Oklahoma
City feeder steers
Boxed beef c utout
Beef retail
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
29.7
9.3
89.8
(Million head)
30.7
31.4
9.3
9.3
93.1
95.9
31.6
9.3
97.4
31.7
9.2
97.6
31.5
9.2
97.0
24,320
2,947
24,686
2,573
591
23,848
3,527
25,054
2,360
553
(Million pounds)
24,662
25,909
3,140
2,869
25,338
26,115
2,444
2,621
573
615
26,904
2,674
26,736
2,811
646
27,612
2,647
27,255
2,979
670
28,007
2,654
27,547
3,101
683
125.89
154.56
(Dollars per hundredweight)
156.89
149.10
136.60
129.80
124.77
122.12
158.84
195.64
225.07
239.21
242.01
243.75
181.60
210.95
168.93
205.76
162.75
203.20
5.29
5.97
5.98
5.97
5.96
2017
2018
2019
2020
224.95
198.26
233.63
218.42
(Dollars per pound)
6.33
6.21
6.05
U.S. pork sector
Calendar year
2013
2014
2015
Breeding herd (Dec. 1*)
Market hogs (Dec. 1*)
5.82
60.4
5.76
59.0
5.94
61.8
(Million head)
6.02
5.94
63.4
65.0
5.83
64.8
5.70
64.4
5.59
63.7
23,204
880
19,099
4,992
618
22,861
1,008
19,070
4,857
560
24,460
1,117
20,576
4,924
637
(Million pounds)
24,948
25,416
1,063
1,016
20,882
21,104
5,112
5,315
655
668
25,442
1,003
20,954
5,498
661
25,381
999
20,708
5,684
648
25,341
1,007
20,545
5,811
639
64.05
91.69
76.03
110.10
53.10
81.65
55.18
84.09
3.64
4.02
3.88
3.97
P ork supply and use
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Exports
Ending stoc ks
P rices
Barrows & gilts, national base
51‐52% lean equivalent
Pork c utout value
Pork retail
(Dollars per hundredweight)
51.08
48.07
47.56
50.12
80.06
76.99
75.23
77.94
(Dollars per pound)
3.78
3.65
3.63
3.73
* Prec eding year
15 2016
U.S. poultry supply and use
Calendar year
2013
2014
2015
Broiler
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Exports
Ending stoc ks
37,425
122
30,184
7,345
669
38,137
117
30,942
7,301
680
39,971
120
33,207
6,837
727
Turkey
Produc tion
Imports
Domestic use
Exports
Ending stoc ks
5,729
22
5,051
759
237
5,756
29
5,023
805
193
5,662
35
5,117
562
211
99.70
196.47
99.75
165.90
104.88
196.27
107.59
160.13
96.17
195.81
112.76
156.78
P rices
National c omposite
wholesale broiler
Broiler retail
8‐16 lb. national turkey hens
Turkey retail
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
(Million pounds)
41,417
42,120
116
118
34,390
34,887
7,102
7,341
768
779
42,373
120
34,926
7,578
768
42,569
122
34,891
7,814
754
42,951
124
35,030
8,053
746
6,281
29
5,494
784
269
6,401
29
5,604
813
283
6,442
30
5,636
831
287
6,489
30
5,668
847
290
(Cents per pound)
90.74
90.24
194.15
193.42
106.79
97.88
155.86
152.20
93.13
200.79
96.07
151.27
96.38
208.84
97.40
154.77
98.22
213.54
98.42
157.38
5,972
28
5,252
722
238
U.S. per‐capita meat consumption
Calendar year
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Beef
Pork
Broiler
Turkey
S um
56.3
46.8
81.9
16.0
201.1
54.2
46.4
83.4
15.8
199.8
54.6
49.7
88.8
15.9
209.0
(Pounds)
54.8
56.0
50.0
50.2
91.2
91.8
16.2
16.8
212.2
214.7
56.9
49.4
91.1
17.0
214.4
57.5
48.4
90.3
17.0
213.2
57.7
47.7
90.0
17.0
212.3
16 U.S. dairy sector
Calendar year
Milk supply
Dairy c ows (thou. head)
Milk yield (lbs. per c ow)
Milk produc tion (bil. lbs.)
All milk price
Wholesale prices
Butter, CME
Cheese, Am., 40#, CME
Nonfat dry milk, AA
Evaporated
Dairy product production
Americ an c heese
Other c heese
Butter
Nonfat dry milk
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
9,224
21,816
201.2
9,257
22,258
206.0
9,314
22,419
208.8
9,322
22,854
213.0
9,300
23,165
215.4
9,261
23,474
217.4
9,235
23,769
219.5
9,224
24,062
221.9
20.11
24.07
(Dollars per hundredweight)
16.96
16.70
17.63
18.32
18.76
19.00
1.56
1.76
1.72
2.12
2.16
2.11
1.74
2.24
1.77
1.62
0.92
1.81
(Dollars per pound)
1.68
1.69
1.56
1.62
1.06
1.22
1.79
1.84
1.72
1.69
1.29
1.88
1.72
1.73
1.34
1.91
1.72
1.75
1.37
1.93
4,420
6,682
1,863
1,999
4,534
6,916
1,856
2,214
4,621
7,015
1,812
2,257
(Million pounds)
4,693
4,705
7,157
7,247
1,869
1,918
2,344
2,373
4,714
7,342
1,956
2,428
4,735
7,459
1,985
2,484
4,766
7,590
2,013
2,541
U.S. consumer food price inflation
Calendar year
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Food
1.4%
2.4%
(Change from the previous year)
1.9%
1.3%
1.7%
2.2%
2.3%
2.0%
Food at home
Cereal and bakery
Meat
Dairy
Fruits and vegetables
Other food at home
0.9%
1.0%
2.1%
0.1%
2.5%
0.0%
2.4%
0.2%
7.2%
3.6%
1.5%
0.7%
1.3%
1.1%
3.4%
‐1.0%
‐0.7%
1.8%
0.5%
1.1%
‐1.7%
‐0.2%
2.1%
1.5%
1.2%
1.4%
‐1.5%
2.3%
3.1%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
2.7%
2.6%
1.8%
2.2%
2.0%
1.7%
2.5%
2.6%
1.9%
1.9%
1.6%
1.7%
2.0%
2.3%
1.6%
Food away from home
2.1%
2.4%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.5%
2.4%
2.1%
17