1 THE MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION AND DEMOCRACY PROMOTION: EVENT SUMMARY Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Thursday, December 6, 2007, 12:15-2:00pm Opening Remarks: Ambassador John J. Danilovich, Chief Executive Officer, MCC Presentation: Alicia Phillips Mandaville, Senior Policy Associate, MCC Respondents: Morton Halperin, Director of U.S. Advocacy Open Society Institute Jennifer Windsor, Executive Director, Freedom House Moderator: Thomas Carothers, Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment I. Ambassador John J. Danilovich The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) serves as a catalyst for deepening democracy by creating incentives for policy reform and engaging democratic actors already in place. In actively fostering the link between democracy and economic reform, the MCC seeks to increase transparency, put democratic processes to work in development, and fight corruption. For example, at the local level, the MCC allows for a real dialogue about the costs and benefits of its programs. Democracy is an important tool for growth, peace and security, and poverty reduction. II. Alicia Phillips Mandaville Since the pursuit of economic development and deepening democracy are complementary goals, the MCC—as an economic growth and poverty reduction agency—is involving itself in long-term processes of democratic development in the countries where it works. The MCC contributes to democracy promotion in two ways: by providing an incentive for democratic reform in its selection process, and by putting existing democratic institutions to work in aid-receiving countries through consultation and participation in the process of agreeing upon and implementing MCC programs. These efforts build on an emerging convergence between the practitioner community and academia about the importance of including local democratic institutions in development. First, the MCC incentivizes democratic reform by providing grants to highperforming countries, judged according to seventeen indicators. The level of democracy 2 is captured in three indicators: “Political Rights,” “Civil Liberties” and “Voice and Accountability.” The fact that MCC assistance is untied and can be used for projects of a country’s choosing is an even greater carrot. Therefore, amongst countries lobbying for MCC funding, there is a clear incentive to improve their scores. As evidence of this “MCC effect” on democracy, Freedom House has reported meetings with candidate countries, who are coming to Freedom House not just to try to refute their scores, but to initiate a discussion on how to improve their scores. In addition, through its threshold assistance program—for countries close to but not yet eligible for the MCC’s larger compacts—the MCC creates incentives for countries to propose their own projects to improve their scores related to democracy. For example, Jordan proposed and is now implementing a program on electoral reform. A second, often overlooked way by which the MCC encourages democratic development is working with existing democratic institutions to encourage public consultation and legislative oversight in the negotiation and implementation of MCC compacts. In evaluating assistance proposals from eligible countries, the MCC assesses the proposed methods of public accountability and processes of public consultation, such as the role for civil society groups in aggregating public demands. Domestic legal and political institutions also have a role to play. The MCC requires its funds to be reflected in budgetary documents, and in the majority of cases, national legislatures have formally ratified the compacts. Finally, the MCC upholds transparency during the implementation process by putting mechanisms of accountability to work. A local implementation unit, not MCC staff, manages MCC projects. They are responsible for making documents such as quarterly reports and meeting minutes available online to further transparency. The work of the MCC builds on lessons learned in democracy assistance and research on the role of institutions in economic development. Respecting two key conclusions from practitioners that democracy work transcends a focus around elections and one-size-fits-all approaches to institutions, the MCC seeks to take existing democratic institutions at face value and engages with them. This approach also confronts the problem some scholars refer to as “displaced accountability”—international assistance agencies supplanting the local population as the constituency to which a national government is accountable. III. Morton Halperin We live in an era in which a large number of poor countries have become democracies by the choice of their citizens, and it should be a key priority of U.S. foreign policy to help these countries stay on the path of democracy. It is becoming clearer that democratic countries experience higher growth in the long-run and fare better during drastic economic upheavals. Therefore, the MCC should be transformed into a democratic development organization, rather than remaining in its current scope as a development organization that also works on democracy promotion. Its new mission should be to “support economic growth in poor countries so as to reduce poverty and deepen democracy.” 3 In its current form, the MCC has limited leverage over democratic reform. Since candidate countries need only pass half of the indicators in each given category, they can become eligible for compact assistance while failing all three of the democratic criteria. Although democracy is listed as one of the goals of the MCC in the congressional legislation creating it, it is secondary since the MCC is staffed by people with development backgrounds and functions as a development organization. There are several changes the MCC can make in order to become such a democracy development organization: • Make democracy a mandatory criteria or “hard hurdle” for countries to meet in order to be eligible for assistance, similar to the existing anti-corruption requirement. • Allow for additional compacts contingent upon further democratic progress, which would provide the MCC with continuing leverage. • Give grants to NGOs in possible candidate countries to educate civil society about the MCC, creating domestic pressure to meet the democratic criteria. This would create a “constituency” for reforms. Making these changes would also be a way of ensuring the next administration would feel some ownership of the MCC—such changes could be a Democratic administration’s distinctive stamp on the organization. III. Jennifer Windsor The MCC should fulfill a dual role of supporting economic and democratic development. It does play an important role in changing the political calculus of those blocking democracy while encouraging democratic activists. In certain cases, it can tip the balance in favor of democracy. In order to exercise effective leverage on democracy, however, the incentive structures must be appropriate: • The incentives must be large enough, requiring sufficient funding. • The assistance criteria must directly correspond with democracy, not just good governance—the MCC’s rule of law criteria, for example, corresponds primarily with the commercial legal framework. The MCC has awarded compacts to some clear non-democracies, notably Morocco, Armenia, and Jordan. Therefore, there should be a minimum threshold of democracy for compacts, and also greater scrutiny of countries implementing threshold programs, including the punishment of backsliders, such as Georgia right now. • MCC funding must not displace USAID funding. • The selection process must involve civil society. One way is to invest in local think tanks and NGOs to conduct their own rankings and scores in order to further domestic dialogue on and assessments of democratic development. 4 IV. Questions and Answers Thomas Carothers, the event’s moderator, began by challenging each of Ms. Mandaville’s two claims about the MCC’s influence on democracy. First, given that the experiences with negative economic incentives (sanctions) have repeatedly demonstrated that non-democratic power holders rarely decide to make significant political concessions for the sake of economic benefits, why should we expect the situation to be different with positive incentives? This is all the more doubtful given that MCC compact countries are high-performing countries and thus ones that are usually already attracting plentiful flows of donor assistance. Second, how are the MCC’s methods of consultation any more significant than the many other participatory methods that other aid organizations have established in recent years, methods that are often limited in genuine democratic effect by power imbalances, weak institutions for deliberation and consultation, and the frequent pattern of merely formalized participations exercise? Ms. Mandaville responded by arguing that the MCC can only alter the decisionmaking calculus of a ruler on the margins, but this is often where it counts. While the MCC tends to reward good performers, compact assistance serves to keep them on the right track. Regarding consultation, while the MCC process may not appear significantly different than the World Bank’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper participation process on paper, the MCC goes further in asking this process to continue throughout implementation and making use of existing local institutions. Discussion during the question period also covered the democratic aspects of economic institutions, strengthening independent media and civil society, and how to make democracy a “hard hurdle” in country selection. One participant from USAID raised the concern that MCC often has a negative effect on more direct democracy aid: when MCC signs a compact with a country, USAID usually reduces its budget for that country, undercutting funding for direct democracy aid in that country.