Review Article 242 Direct and Indirect Climate Change Effects on Photosynthesis and Transpiration M. U. F. Kirschbaum1,2 1 CSIRO Forestry and Forest Products, P.O. Box 4008, Kingston ACT 2604, Australia 2 CRC for Greenhouse Accounting, P.O. Box 475, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia Received: February 6, 2004; Accepted: March 26, 2004 Abstract: Climate change affects plants in many different ways. Increasing CO2 concentration can increase photosynthetic rates. This is especially pronounced for C3 plants, at high temperatures and under water-limited conditions. Increasing temperature also affects photosynthesis, but plants have a considerable ability to adapt to their growth conditions and can function even at extremely high temperatures, provided adequate water is available. Temperature optima differ between species and growth conditions, and are higher in elevated atmospheric CO2. With increasing temperature, vapour pressure deficits of the air may increase, with a concomitant increase in the transpiration rate from plant canopies. However, if stomata close in response to increasing CO2 concentration, or if there is a reduction in the diurnal temperature range, then transpiration rates may even decrease. Soil organic matter decomposition rates are likely to be stimulated by higher temperatures, so that nutrients can be more readily mineralised and made available to plants. This is likely to increase photosynthetic carbon gain in nutrient-limited systems. All the factors listed above interact strongly so that, for different combinations of increases in temperature and CO2 concentration, and for systems in different climatic regions and primarily affected by water or nutrient limitations, photosynthesis must be expected to respond differently to the same climatic changes. Key words: CO2, C3, photosynthesis, C4 photosynthesis, diurnal temperature, Rubisco, RuBP, stomata, temperature. Abbreviations: RuBP: ribulose-1,5,-bisphosphate Rubisco: RuBP carboxylase/oxygenase Introduction Photosynthesis is intimately tied to climatic conditions, both directly and indirectly. While light absorption is independent of temperature, the subsequent steps in converting light into chemical energy respond to temperature in complex ways. In C3 plants, the uptake of CO2 by Rubisco is the first step in pho- Plant Biology 6 (2004): 242 – 253 © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York ISSN 1435-8603 · DOI 10.1055/s-2004-820883 tosynthetic CO2 assimilation, and Rubisco is not saturated with CO2 at normal intercellular CO2 concentrations. Both CO2 and O2 also compete for access to the active sites on Rubisco, with increasing CO2 favouring carboxylations at the expense of oxygenations, so that an increasing proportion of reducing and phosphorylation potentials can be channelled towards CO2 fixation. Indirect effects of climate change may ultimately be even more important. Plants require an aqueous medium in their cells, and photosynthetic function is impaired when plant water status falls below critical values. Plants could maintain an aqueous internal environment by closing their stomata and minimising water loss by fully surrounding their leaves by a cuticular epidermis that allows only minor rates of water loss. However, stomatal closure would also prevent the diffusive entry of CO2 into photosynthesising cells. On-going water loss is therefore an inevitable cost of the need to maintain an open diffusion path for CO2 to enter photosynthesising leaves. Plants photosynthesise in order to produce carbon for growth. To grow new tissues, plants also need inorganic nutrients from the soil, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, and plant responses to climatic changes can be modified by the availability of these nutrients. Nutrient availability itself can also be affected by environmental factors, especially temperature, because the rate of soil nutrient mineralisation strongly depends on temperature. For a detailed assessment of the overall effects of a changing climate on photosynthesis, it is necessary to investigate the response to the simultaneous changes in several climatic variables, such as temperature, water availability, and CO2 concentration. Photosynthesis responds to all aspects of the climate. Some of these direct and indirect ecophysiological responses will be described below, and the various responses will then be brought together into a fully integrated system response. Photosynthetic Responses to CO2 Concentration It has been shown in many experimental studies that C3 photosynthesis responds strongly to CO2 concentration, with photosynthesis typically increasing by 25 – 75 % for doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration (e.g., Kimball, 1983; Cure and Acock, 1986; Drake, 1992; Luxmoore et al., 1993; Drake et al., 1997; Urban, 2003). There are fewer reports for C4 plants, but Direct and Indirect Climate Change Effects on Photosynthesis and Transpiration Plant Biology 6 (2004) those available suggest only minor responses to increasing CO2 concentration (e.g., Pearcy et al., 1982; Morison and Gifford, 1983; Drake, 1992; Polley et al., 1992). Recent work has also shown sustained growth increases for plants fumigated in “free air CO2 enrichment” (FACE) experiments. This has been observed in wheat fields (Garcia et al., 1998) and in largely undisturbed forests (Herrick and Thomas, 2001; Gunderson et al., 2002). These responses are consistent with theoretical understanding of the effect of CO2 concentration on photosynthesis at the leaf and stand level (McMurtrie et al., 1992; Long et al., 1996). In this paper, these responses have been formalised through the photosynthesis model of Farquhar et al. (1980) and Farquhar and von Caemmerer (1982), together with assumptions about stomatal conductance (Ball et al., 1987). The newer biochemical parameters and their temperature dependencies determined by Bernacchi et al. (2001) are used here. These parameters suggest a greater CO2 under-saturation of Rubisco, especially at higher temperature, than had been concluded based on previously used parameters (e.g., McMurtrie et al., 1992), and hence a greater responsiveness to increasing CO2 concentration. Fig. 1 Response of C3 photosynthesis to increasing CO2 concentration. The curves compare Rubisco-limited and RuBP regeneration-limited responses at different leaf temperatures. Calculated based on the parameters of Bernacchi et al. (2001). The response is quantified as the percentage increase in assimilation rate (A) per percent increase in ambient CO3 concentration (pa). Fig. 1 shows the CO2 response of photosynthesis under different photosynthetic limitations. The response is much greater for Rubisco-limited photosynthesis and at higher temperature. RuBP regeneration-limited photosynthesis responds to CO2 concentration only because of a changing ratio of carboxylations (that fix CO2) to oxygenations (that lose CO2), but the total rate of RuBP regeneration remains the same (Kirschbaum and Farquhar, 1984). In the Rubisco-limited region, on the other hand, the CO2 uptake kinetics of Rubisco also become a further limitation so that, with increasing CO2 concentration, there is not only an increasingly favourable ratio of carboxylations to oxygenations, but more RuBP molecules can be utilised as well. This leads to the question whether plants are Rubisco or RuBP regeneration-limited under normal environmental conditions. There have been various surveys of leaf Rubisco activity (quantified through the maximum CO2 fixing capacity of Rubisco with non-limiting CO2 and RuBP – Vcmax) and their capacity for RuBP regeneration (Wullschleger, 1993; Medlyn et al., 1999, 2002). RuBP regeneration capacity can be quantified as Vjmax (Kirschbaum and Farquhar, 1984) for expression in units of RuBP regeneration, or as Jmax in units of electron transport. Units of Jmax are used more frequently in the literature, but Vjmax has the advantage that it is numerically directly comparable with the units of assimilation rate. Rubisco activity and the capacity for RuBP regeneration are usually strongly correlated in leaves (e.g., Fig. 2), and it would be optimal for plant leaves to operate in such a way that Rubisco and RuBP regeneration co-limit photosynthesis (Farquhar and von Caemmerer, 1982). With increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, photosynthetic limitation shifts increasingly from this point of co-limitation towards limitation by RuBP regeneration, so that the response to increasing CO2 will be predominantly determined by the CO2 responsiveness under RuBP regeneration-limited conditions. Furthermore, under light-limited conditions, photo- Fig. 2 Vjmax plotted against Vcmax from 19 separate gas exchange studies. All data were normalised to 25 8C and have been converted from Jmax to Vjmax from the data given in Medlyn et al. (2002). The regression line has a slope of 0.41. Square symbols: broadleaf species; circles: conifers; triangles: crop plants. synthesis is always RuBP regeneration-limited, so that the CO2 response of photosynthesis under light-limited conditions is always best described as the response of RuBP regeneration. Hence, the overall responsiveness to increasing CO2 is probably most closely approximated by the RuBP regeneration-limited response. Responses shown below are, therefore, based on the use of equations that describe the RuBP regeneration-limited response. However, in reality, there will also be situations when photosynthesis is Rubisco limited, so that the overall responsiveness to increasing CO2 should be slightly more pronounced than that estimated based on RuBP regeneration limitation alone. Fig. 3 shows rates of photosynthesis relative to rates at a preindustrial CO2 concentration of 280 μbar. At 35 8C, photosynthesis has already increased by 20 % over pre-industrial rates, and is likely to increase by more than 90 % over pre-industrial 243 244 Plant Biology 6 (2004) M. U. F. Kirschbaum Fig. 3 Photosynthesis of C3 plants relative to pre-industrial photosynthetic rates. CO2 concentrations from 2000 onwards are based on the SRES A2 scenario (IPCC, 2000). The response is based on the response under RuBP regeneration-limited conditions (see Fig. 1). All data are expressed relative to calculated rates of photosynthesis at an assumed pre-industrial concentration of 280 μbar. Relative rates are calculated at four different temperatures as shown in the Figure. rates by the end of the 21st century. The response at 5 8C is much smaller, with increases of less than 10% to date, and anticipated increases of less than 20% by the end of the 21st century (Fig. 3). This indicates that photosynthesis at normal atmospheric CO2 concentration is already closer to saturation at such cooler temperatures and thus responds less to increasing CO2 than photosynthesis at higher temperatures (Long, 1991; Kirschbaum, 1994). Consequently, plant growth responses to increasing CO2 concentration are usually much more pronounced for plants grown at higher temperatures, with smaller increases, and sometimes even decreases, for plants grown at lower temperatures (Kimball, 1983; Rawson, 1992). The strong temperature × CO2 interaction is due to the competitive interaction between CO2 and O2 at the active site of Rubisco. Rubisco can react either with CO2, in which case CO2 is productively fixed, or with O2, with CO2 being released and captured light energy being wasted (Farquhar et al., 1980; Farquhar and von Caemmerer, 1982). The relative reaction rates with O2 and CO2 depend on the relative concentrations of the two gases at the enzyme sites and on temperature, with higher temperatures favouring reactions with O2 (Long, 1991). This causes photosynthesis to be more under-saturated with CO2 at higher temperature so that relative responses to increasing CO2 concentration increase with temperature (e.g., Kirschbaum and Farquhar, 1984). Responses of Photosynthesis to Temperature Photosynthesis can be strongly affected by temperature (e.g., Berry and Björkman, 1980; Berry and Raison, 1982; Medlyn et al., 2002). Photosynthesis is a biochemical process and its overall temperature response can be understood in terms of the temperature dependencies of its component processes and their well-known interactions (Farquhar et al., 1980; Farquhar and von Caemmerer, 1982; Kirschbaum and Farquhar, 1984; Medlyn et al., 2002). At low to moderate temperatures, the activity of each of these component processes increases with increasing temperature in accordance with the Arrhenius relationship (Farquhar et al., 1980; Berry and Raison, 1982; Medlyn et al., 2002). At higher Fig. 4 Photosynthetic responses to temperature in four different species (redrawn from Berry and Björkman, 1980). Each panel shows the short-term temperature response of a species grown under either high or low temperature. Circles depict the response of low temperaturegrown, and squares that of high temperature-grown plants. Arrows indicate the respective growth temperatures. Original data were obtained by Björkman et al. (1975), Pearcy (1977), and Mooney et al. (1978). temperatures, photosynthesis decreases due to conformational changes in key enzymes. This decrease is reversible at moderately high temperatures but becomes increasingly irreversible with length and intensity of high temperature exposure (Berry and Björkman, 1980). Photosynthesis can acclimate considerably to actual growth conditions, but the patterns differ between species (Fig. 4). Photosynthesis has a temperature optimum, with the sharpness of the optimum differing between species and growth, and measurement conditions. Optimum temperatures are higher in plants acclimated to higher growth temperatures. In general, as in the examples in Fig. 4, optimum temperatures for photosynthesis acclimate by about 0.5 8C per 1.0 8C change in effective growth temperature (Berry and Björkman, 1980; Battaglia et al., 1996). Atriplex lentiformis, Atriplex sabulosa, and Tidestromia oblongifolia are all C4 plants whereas Larrea divaricata is a C3 plant. This indicates that both C3 and C4 species can be capable of high photosynthetic rates up to extremely high temperatures. While C3 plants are more typically found at cooler locations than C4 plants (see below), the differences in distribution are not necessarily reflected in the photosynthetic response curves of individual species. Photosynthetic responses to temperature are thus highly dependent on species and growth conditions. All plants appear to be capable of a degree of adaptation to growth conditions, and it is important to note that photosynthesis in some species can function adequately up to 50 8C. This suggests that even Direct and Indirect Climate Change Effects on Photosynthesis and Transpiration Plant Biology 6 (2004) with considerable global warming, some plants will be able to continue to photosynthesise adequately, provided they have sufficient water. Some species, however, are able to acclimate more fully than others. For example, A. sabulosa performed well when grown in low temperatures, but photosynthetic rates were much reduced in plants grown at high temperature (Fig. 4 a). The opposite pattern was apparent in T. oblongifolia (Fig. 4 b) so that temperature increases would be likely to favour T. oblongifolia at the expense of A. sabulosa. While individual species respond in unique ways, the competitive effect of increasing temperature can be generalised for the interaction between C3 and C4 plants. C4 plants are typically found in warmer and drier habitats (Tieszen et al., 1979; Rundel, 1980; Ehleringer et al., 1997). Warming alone is therefore likely to favour C4 species at the expense of C3 species. However, increasing CO2 concentration benefits C3 plants, with limited benefit for C4 species (Ehleringer et al., 1997; Collatz et al., 1998). Fig. 5 Critical temperature for the competition between C3 and C4 species as a function of atmospheric CO2 concentration (solid line) and indicative changes in CO2 concentration and temperature from 1900 to 2100 (dashed line). The critical temperature curve has been redrawn from Collatz et al. (1998), and future CO2 concentrations and temperatures are based on the SRES A2 scenario (IPCC, 2000). Hence, the question arises whether C4 plants will gain greater benefit from increasing temperature than C3 plants from increasing CO2 concentration. The competitive interaction between C3 and C4 plants can be modelled through the effects of temperature and CO2 concentration on their respective quantum yields, which provides an objective measure to compare the respective effects of temperature and CO2 concentration on the two plant groups. Relevant equations have been developed by Collatz et al. (1998) who calculated critical temperatures as a function of atmospheric CO2 concentration for the competitive balance of C3 and C4 species (Fig. 5). The critical temperature for the competitive balance between C3 and C4 species increases steeply with CO2 concentration at low CO2 concentrations, but flattens out at higher CO2 concentrations. Over the range of possible CO2 concentrations, the critical temperature for C3-C4 competition can range from 08 to 35 8C (Fig. 5). If one compares that line of equal competitive strength with past and anticipated future CO2 concentrations and temperatures, it becomes apparent that the increases in CO2 concentration will be the dominant effect in the context of C3-C4 competition. Starting from a temperature of 15.5 8C, where C3 and C4 were equally competitive at the pre-industrial CO2 concentration of 280 μbar, the dashed line in Fig. 5 shows observed and anticipated changes in CO2 concentration and global mean temperature. These points fall far below the critical temperature curve, indicating that the combination of anticipated climatic changes to date and over the 21st century should greatly favour C3 species at the expense of C4 species. There are also important interactions between the photosynthetic temperature response and other environmental factors, such as CO2 concentration (Fig. 6). In the C3 plant Nerium oleander, much higher photosynthetic rates were observed at higher than lower CO2 concentration. Additionally, the response curve to temperature changed, with optimum temperature increasing with increasing CO2 concentration. Fig. 6 Photosynthetic responses to temperature in Nerium oleander at normal (a) and elevated CO2 (b). Redrawn from Berry and Björkman (1980). Original data were obtained by Björkman et al. (1975, 1978). Symbols as for Fig. 4. The experimental observations shown in Fig. 6 are consistent with theoretical response curves based on photosynthetic modelling (Fig. 7). At low intercellular CO2 concentration, photosynthesis is limited by Rubisco activity, which shows little response to temperature because temperature effects on maximum catalytic capacity of Rubisco and the Michaelis–Menten constant for CO2 largely cancel each other out (Kirschbaum and Farquhar, 1984). At higher CO2 concentration, on the other hand, RuBP regeneration is the principal limitation and, because of the strong increase in its activity with temperature (Medlyn et al., 2002), assimilation rate also responds strongly to temperature (Kirschbaum and Farquhar, 1984; Medlyn et al., 2002). Transpiration Rate at Different Temperatures The driving force for transpiration from plant canopies is the difference in vapour pressure between the inside of leaves and the humidity of the surrounding air, with air humidity often determined by the dewpoint at the overnight minimum 245 246 Plant Biology 6 (2004) M. U. F. Kirschbaum Fig. 7 Interaction between leaf temperature and photosynthetic response to intercellular CO2 concentration. The families of curves give the photosynthetic response to temperature of a Eucalyptus pauciflora leaf at different constant intercellular CO2 concentrations. The grey curve links the temperature optima at the respective CO2 concentrations. Simulations are based on the model of Kirschbaum and Farquhar (1984). temperature. With global warming, there are likely to be increases in both daytime and nighttime temperatures. If the diurnal temperature range remains constant (but see discussion below), global warming will lead to an increase in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) because the saturated vapour pressure curve is steeper at higher than at lower temperatures. VPD increases by about 5 – 6 % 8C–1 over most combinations of daytime temperatures and diurnal temperature ranges (Kirschbaum, 2000 b). These changes in VPD can be used to compute changes in transpiration rate with global warming (Fig. 8). These calculations used the Penman–Monteith equation (Monteith, 1965; Martin et al., 1989; McKenney and Rosenberg, 1993), with constant radiation and canopy and aerodynamic resistances that represent typical values for the different canopy types. Forest canopies tend to be more open than grassland canopies so that transpiration is mostly controlled by vapour pressure deficits and hence responds strongly to increases in VPD, with increases for unstressed forests being between 2 – 5 % 8C–1 over daytime temperatures between 5 and 35 8C (Fig. 8 a). Transpiration in grass swards, on the other hand, is largely controlled by radiation absorption and consequently less affected by increases in vapour pressure deficit (Jarvis and McNaughton, 1986; Martin et al., 1989). Hence, in unstressed grasslands, transpiration increases by only 1 – 4 % 8C–1. Calculated increases in transpiration rate are greater in systems under stress, with increases in transpiration rate ranging from 3 to 6 % 8C–1 in stressed forest systems. Stressed grasslands are calculated to respond to warming in much the same way as unstressed forest canopies (Fig. 8 a). However, under increased CO2 concentration, stomata of most plants are observed to close to some extent (Saralabai et al., 1997; Urban, 2003). The effect of such partial stomatal closure is illustrated in Fig. 8 b for which the Penman–Monteith equation was run for a 1 8C increase in temperature and with some stomatal closure, as indicated in the Figure. Stomatal closure Fig. 8 Change in transpiration rate with warming (a), and with warming plus stomatal closure (b). Simulations in (b) are for an unstressed forest. Further details of the simulations are given in Kirschbaum (2000b). by 10% would have the effect of more than completely negating the effect of increasing temperature by 1 8C, leading to marginally reduced transpiration rates (Fig. 8 b). It leads to the question of the extent of stomatal closure that can be expected in future. Morison (1985) and Allen (1990) compiled a range of observations from the literature and showed that stomatal conductance for both C3 and C4 species was reduced by about 40% when CO2 concentration was doubled. Bert et al. (1997) in their review of the literature, however, found stomatal closure of only 20 % for doubling CO2 and a constant ratio of intercellular to ambient CO2 concentration. Medlyn et al. (2001) found a 21 % decrease in stomatal conductance in studies on European forest trees, and Curtis and Wang (1998) found even lesser stomatal closure in their review of studies on woody plants. Reduced stomatal conductance has also been deduced from analysis of herbarium specimens that has shown that the number of stomata on leaves has decreased with historical increases in global CO2 concentration (Woodward, 1987; Rundgren and Björck, 2003; Kouwenberg et al., 2003). The carbon isotope discrimination between 13CO2 and 12CO2 can also be used to infer changes in the intercellular CO2 concentration, and that can be related to historical changes in atmospheric CO2 (Dawson et al., 2002). Using this approach, Arneth et al. (2002) and Duquesnay et al. (1998) reported data that inferred some stomatal closure in response to increasing atmospheric CO2, but Marshall and Monserud (1996) and Monserud and Marshall (2001) found no evidence of stomatal closure in their data sets. While there are some conflicting Direct and Indirect Climate Change Effects on Photosynthesis and Transpiration Plant Biology 6 (2004) diurnal temperature range would have the effect of reducing the expected increase in VPD, or even lead to a decrease (Figs. 9 a, b). With a 0.8/1.2 8C (day/night) temperature increase, there would still be a slight increase in VPD, but with an even greater disparity between daytime and nighttime temperature increases, VPD would actually decrease. Increases in transpiration rate are also reduced if nighttime temperature increases exceed those during the day, and for 0.7/1.3 8C (day/night) temperature increases, there would be almost no change in transpiration rate (Fig. 9 c). These combinations of temperature increases are similar to the combination of temperature increases observed to date (Easterling et al., 1997). There is also evidence for a reduction in solar radiation over the past decades, probably linked to increasing atmospheric pollution (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001), which could have further reduced transpiration rates in the recent past. Hence, the reduction in diurnal temperature range, in addition to any stomatal closure, all might completely negate any increase in transpiration with global warming. Therefore, for the combination of climatic changes observed to date and anticipated into the future, there most likely would be some decrease, rather than increase, in transpiration from most plant canopies. Integrating Responses to Temperature, CO2, Nutrition and Water Availability Fig. 9 Change in VPD as absolute change (a) or relative change (b), and transpiration rate (c) for an unstressed forest with increasing temperature for different combinations of daytime and nighttime temperature increases. Each line corresponds to a different combination of daytime (first number) and nighttime (second number) temperature increases. Transpiration is calculated for an unstressed forest with the same parameters as used for the calculations in Fig. 8. findings in some studies of the effect of CO2 on stomatal conductance, it nonetheless seems likely, on balance, that stomata of most plants are closing to some extent in response to increasing CO2. The analysis so far has assumed that there will be the same increases in both daily minimum and maximum temperatures. However, observed temperature increases to date have been mainly due to increases in nighttime temperature, with daytime temperatures having increased by only half as much as nighttime temperatures (Karl et al., 1993; Easterling et al., 1997). This has been largely associated with an increase in cloudiness, which in turn is related to increasing industrial pollution, especially over more industrialised regions (Folland et al., 2001; Stanhill and Cohen, 2001). Simulations of future climate generally also show a decrease in diurnal temperature range, although by less than the trend observed to date (Cubasch et al., 2001). If day and night temperatures increase to the same extent, then vapour pressure deficits increase with increasing temperature. In absolute terms, the VPD increase with increasing temperature is more pronounced at higher temperature (Fig. 9 a), although warming has a proportionately greater effect at lower base temperatures (Fig. 9 b). Any decrease in the Photosynthesis is intimately linked to the interacting cycles of carbon, water, and nutrients (Kirschbaum, 1999 a, b), with the direct effects of CO2 and temperature on photosynthesis, and the effects of temperature on transpiration rates having been discussed above. Plants also require nutrients, especially nitrogen, which is mostly derived from the decomposition of soil organic matter. Plant responses to increasing CO2 can be curtailed through insufficient availability of nutrients. Conversely, increasing temperature can stimulate nitrogen mineralisation and thus photosynthesis (Kirschbaum, 1999 b, 2000 a). The combined effects of these processes are illustrated here through simulations at four different locations with contrasting climates (Fig. 10). Canberra, Australia, is characterised by low and irregular rainfall without a distinct rainy season, hot summers, and fairly cool winters. Manila, Philippines, has very high rainfall for half of the year but a pronounced dry season for the other half, and high temperatures throughout the year. Flakaliden, Sweden, has very cold winters, with snow covering the ground for four to five months. Precipitation is not high but more than adequate in this environment with very low evaporative demand. Alice Springs, Australia, has a typical desert climate, characterised by hot summers and very low, and severely limiting, rainfall. For each of these sites, the comprehensive tree-growth model CenW (Kirschbaum, 1999a) was run to simulate net primary production (NPP) under current conditions, and for a changed climate (Figs. 10,11). The direct effect of changing CO2 concentration was simulated as described above, but was modified in the whole forest system through subsequent feedback effects. Simulated responses to increasing temperature were dominated by indirect effects of temperature, while direct temperature effects played only a minor role. 247 248 Plant Biology 6 (2004) M. U. F. Kirschbaum Fig. 10 Response of NPP to doubling CO2 concentration under different base conditions. Four climatically very different sites were used to provide the base climatic conditions and, at each site, simulations were run over a range of water and fertiliser additions. Water loss was simulated with the Penman–Monteith equation. The diurnal temperature range was held constant in the simulations with increasing temperature, but some degree of stomatal closure was assumed in response to increasing CO2. Respiration rate was simulated as being a constant fraction of daily photosynthetic carbon gain under both increasing CO2 and temperature. The model represents a fully integrated stand of trees in which the fluxes of carbon, water, and nitrogen are all modelled in their dependence on external factors and through system internal feedback processes. For a full description and testing of the model, refer to Kirschbaum (1999a). The simulations for Flakaliden required detailed modelling of snow cover and the resultant effect on soil temperature. A description and test of these new routines is given in the Appendix. For all sites, the model was run for 20 years under either the standard conditions for each site, or with added water (in daily additions) and/or added nitrogen fertiliser (in annual additions) to emulate systems with different fertility and water availability. The model was then run a second time under the same conditions of water and/or fertiliser additions, and with either CO2 concentration or temperature increased. Each point on the 3-D plots then shows the response of the system to increasing CO2 concentration (Fig. 10) or temperature (Fig. 11) under contrasting initial conditions. The graphs as they are cannot be used to infer growth rates under changing water availability or nutrition. The following section aims to only show the relative responsiveness of NPP to these key aspects of climate change under contrasting initial conditions. The CO2 response differed considerably between sites, and across different water and fertility levels, with NPP responses to doubling CO2 ranging between 0 – 70% (Fig. 10). When water was limiting and nutrition adequate, which was seen especially for Canberra and Alice Springs with added fertiliser, the growth response to doubled CO2 was almost 70%. Under those conditions, NPP responses were dominated by water use efficiency, the condition under which increasing CO2 could potentially have its greatest impact. On the other hand, when water was adequate, but nutrition limiting, growth responses to doubled CO2 were only of the order of a few percent. This was the case at all sites when sufficient water but no fertiliser was added, and for Flakaliden under almost all conditions. Under those conditions, growth was temporarily stimulated by increasing CO2, but the extra litter produced then immobilised nutrients, lowering plant nutritional status and thus prevented sustained growth responses (see Kirschbaum, 1999 b). The basic interactive response pattern of increasing CO2 responsiveness with increasing fertility and decreasing water availability was apparent at three of the four sites across the range of water and fertiliser additions (Fig. 10). Flakaliden had sufficient water but limited nutrition over almost all water and fertiliser additions and showed a CO2 response only with the highest fertiliser additions. Direct and Indirect Climate Change Effects on Photosynthesis and Transpiration Plant Biology 6 (2004) Fig. 11 NPP response to increasing temperature for different base conditions. Simulations as for Fig. 10. Note that the axes for water and fertiliser additions are drawn in the opposite direction from those in Fig. 10. The differential CO2 sensitivity under different temperatures was only apparent when neither water or nutrition were limiting. With maximum water and nutrient additions, Manila had the highest CO2 response of about 35 %, Canberra about 25 % and Flakaliden about 15 %. Alice Springs did not receive sufficient water and fertiliser additions to completely escape water limitation over any of the additions used here. Under other conditions, either water use efficiency, or the negative feedbacks from developing nutrient deficiency, became the dominant factor controlling the overall CO2 response of photosynthesis. Under conditions when nutrition was limiting (i.e., with less applied fertilizer, Fig. 11), the growth response to increased temperature became more positive at all sites because of the increasing importance of enhanced nutrient mineralisation. That dependence on nutrient availability was most pronounced for the Canberra site, where a positive growth response of 15 % per degree warming was possible, yet the positive response to temperature disappeared with even a slight fertiliser addition when only the negative effect of greater water loss remained, and the overall response became negative. In response to increasing temperature (Fig. 11), the response patterns under varying additions of water and nutrients were fundamentally different from the responses to increasing CO2. Increasing temperature can stimulate the rate of nitrogen mineralisation (Schimel et al., 1990; Kirschbaum, 2000 a), thereby increasing nutrient supply and thus stimulating plant productivity, independent of any direct physiological plant responses to increasing temperature. Alice Springs showed a similar pattern, but with a more pronounced interaction between water and fertiliser additions as the site remained water limited over most combinations of water and fertiliser additions, and the response to increasing temperature remained negative. Only with very large water and no fertiliser additions did the response to temperature become positive. Under conditions of limiting water and adequate nutrition, growth responses were negative at all sites except Flakaliden (Fig. 11). The principal reason was the increased water loss under increased temperature (see Fig. 8 – the simulations here assumed a constant diurnal temperature range). In Flakaliden, water limitations did not develop for a 1 8C temperature increase, so that the greater water loss at increased temperature did not become limiting. Instead, the benefit of an extended growing season and enhanced nitrogen mineralisation led to a significant positive overall growth response. These simulations have demonstrated that there is no unique sensitivity of plant productivity to increasing CO2 concentration or temperature, but that responses are highly dependent on circumstances. Responses to doubling CO2 are likely to range from close to zero under nutrient-limited and well-watered conditions to increases of up to 70% under fertile but water-limited conditions (Fig. 10). Direct physiological responses, which come into play when neither water nor nutrition are limiting, are intermediate in their magnitude and differ with predominant temperature. In response to increasing temperature, responses are similarly varied, with negative responses 249 250 Plant Biology 6 (2004) M. U. F. Kirschbaum under fertile but well-watered conditions and positive by up to 15 % per degree warming at cold sites, or sites that are strongly nitrogen-limited (Fig. 11). This makes it difficult to provide generalisations for the response of plants to increasing CO2 concentration or temperature. Hence, the response of individual stands of plants to increasing CO2 can only be predicted if the key limitations in each system are understood and quantified. It is important to quantify not only direct responses to changed external conditions but also any possible feedback effects in the system or important controlling factors that might be independently affected by climatic changes. The overall system response will be affected by all of these individual factors, and by their interactions. All these factors interact strongly so that, for different combinations of temperature and CO2 increases, for systems in different parts of the world, and for systems primarily effected by water or nutrient limitations, different overall effects on plant photosynthesis must be expected. Responses can be negative in some circumstances and positive in others, depending on the exact nature of changes and the factors that are initially limiting growth and photosynthesis. Acknowledgements I wish to thank Sune Linder and Johan Bergh for providing the climatic information from the Flakaliden experimental site, and Chris Beadle and Chris Harwood for useful comments and suggestions on the manuscript. Appendix – Snow and Soil Temperature Calculations The dynamics of snow cover and its effect on soil temperature are simulated using a routine of intermediate complexity. It is more detailed than the procedure used by McGuire et al. (2000) but simpler than the much more detailed routines that have been used for simulating the progression of a freezing zone with depth into the soil and resultant effects on hydrology (e.g., Male and Granger, 1981; Stähli and Jansson, 1998; Kennedy and Sharratt, 1998; Smirnova et al., 2000). dTs/dt = (Tm – Ts)/rT (A3) where rT is the soil resistance to temperature change. When there is snow cover and the temperature is below 0 8C, snow acts as an additional resistance to temperature change so that: dTs/dt = (Tm – Ts)/(rT + rsS) (A4) where rs gives the additional resistance to soil temperature change per mm (water equivalent) in the snow layer. When snow is melting, the temperature at the top of the soil cannot be greater than 0 8C. Hence, the rate of soil warming in spring is given by the lesser of heat transfer through the insulating snow layer and the heat transfer from the top of the soil at 0 8C. Hence, when air temperature is above 0 8C: dTs/dt = (Tm – Ts)/(rT + rsS) if (– Ts/rT) < [(Tm – Ts)/(rT + rsS)] (A5a) dTs/dt = – Ts/rT if (– Ts/rT) < [(Tm – Ts)/(rT + rsS)] (A5b) Model testing The revised soil temperature routines were tested against data from the Flakaliden site. Fig. A 1 shows observed soil and air temperatures and predicted soil temperatures and snow packs for one typical year out of the four years of available data. Fig. A2 plots all observed versus predicted soil temperatures over four years. Soil temperatures closely followed air temperatures over the snow-free period. The model parameter fitted to the data, rT = 5 d–1, implies that soil temperature at 10 cm depth changed daily by 1 ⁄ 5 of the temperature difference between air and soil temperature, allowing the soil to follow air temperature with only a few days delay. Once snow fell, however, the soil became effectively isolated from the air above it, and temperatures hardly changed (see Goulden et al., 1998; Bergh and Linder, 1999; Strand et al., 2002). Even though winter mean air temperatures fell to as Precipitation is assumed to fall as snow, S, and accumulate on the ground when daily mean temperature is below 0 8C: dS/dt = P if Tm < 0 (A1) where Tm is mean air temperature and P is precipitation. Snow is assumed to melt due to the combined effects of sensible and radiative heat transfer as: dS/dt = –(mT Tday + mQ Qi) if (mT Tday + mQ Qi) > 0 (A2) where Tday is mean daytime temperature, Qi is incident daily radiation, and mT and mQ are empirical parameters that describe the dependence of the rate of snow melt on daytime temperature and incident radiation, respectively. Without snow, soil temperature, Ts, follows mean air temperature, with some characteristic delay term so that Fig. A 1 Observed daily mean air and soil temperatures (at 10 cm), predicted soil temperature (circles), and modelled snow pack (expressed in mm water) for one year of the data collected and modelled at Flakaliden. For predicted soil temperatures, only one weekly value is shown. Direct and Indirect Climate Change Effects on Photosynthesis and Transpiration Fig. A2 Observed versus predicted soil temperature (at 10 cm) at Flakaliden (n = 1460). The line in the Figure is a 1 : 1 relationship and explains 95.6% of the observed variation. low as – 20 8C, soil temperature remained at about 0 8C. With regular precipitation throughout the year, snow started to fall as soon as mean temperatures fell below 0 8C. 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