VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Mar. 4, 2016
USDCAD spot rate: 1.3380 - 1.3385 (as at 7:48am PST)
Asia:
Europe:
North America:
Ranges:
1.3396
1.3415
1.3370
to
to
to
1.3433
1.3452
1.3471
Technical Support / Resistance:
S2
1.3225
S1
1.3310
R1
1.3500
R2
1.3550
Key Economic Data Releases:
- Canada trade balance: -$0.66 billion (exp. -$0.90 billion)
- Canada Ivey purchasing managers index: 53.4 (exp. 58.0)
- U.S. trade deficit: $45.68 billion (exp. $44.0 billion)
- U.S. non-farm payrolls: 242,000 (exp. 190,000) prev. revised from 151k to 172k
- U.S. unemployment rate: 4.9% (exp. 4.9%)
- U.S. participation rate: 62.9% (exp. 62.8%)
- U.S. avg hourly earnings: -0.1% (exp. 0.2%) y/y: 2.2% (exp. 2.5%)
Key Event Calendar:
Date
Mar. 7
Mar. 8
Mar. 9
Mar. 10
Mar. 11
Canada
U.S.A.
Labour market conditions index
Housing starts, building permits
Bank of Canada interest rate
New housing price index
Net employment change,
unemployment rate
Crude oil inventories
Initial jobless claims
Consumer sentiment index
Yesterday, USDCAD initially climbed from 1.3409 up to 1.3473 but the move higher was short-lived as
higher oil prices, positive market sentiment, and a broadly weaker USD sent USDCAD tumbling to 3
month lows near 1.3370. The pairing would bounce back towards 1.3420 in late trading. Overnight,
USDCAD held a 1.3415 – 1.3450 range heading into the 5:30am U.S. jobs data release. The initial reaction
sent USDCAD from 1.3415 up to 1.3435 before a move to session lows at 1.3390. This was followed by a
move to 1.3472 which failed to sustain itself as broad-based USD weakness ensued sending USDCAD
down to test yesterday’s low of 1.3370. The headline jobs numbers were good but the low wage inflation is
a concern for those expecting the U.S. Fed to hike interest rates. There is further event risk next week with
Wednesday’s Bank of Canada interest rate decision and Canadian jobs data out Friday. Currently, the TSX
and the DJIA are up 0.67% and 0.21%. EURCAD is up 0.15% trading between 1.4630 and 1.4815.
GBPCAD is unchanged trading between 1.8919 and 1.9078. JPYCAD is down 0.30% trading between
0.01175 and 0.01184. Gold is up 1.37% trading between $1,250 and $1,280USD/oz., silver is up 4%
trading between $15.14 and $15.73USD/oz., while oil is up 1.30% trading between $34.44 and $35.23.
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve,
CNBC, Forexlive
Please contact the VBCE trading desk at 604-685-1016 for more information on our corporate foreign exchange and wire payment services.
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