Wisdom of the Crowd Decision Making iChilles.com Wisdom Of The Crowd Decision Making AN ENQUIRY INTO DECISION MAKING BY USING THE WISDOM OF THE CROWD Department of Industrial Design, Eindhoven University of Technology Design Research Team ing. J.J. Siekmans Client: “Stichting Toekomstbeeld der Techniek” Maurits Kreijveld, project leader of the future study “wisdom of the crowd” at Stichting Toekomstbeeld der Techniek Coach prof.dr. Ben Schouten January, 2011 STT explores new trends and develops inspiring foresights on technology and society. For that purpose STT facilitates a free space in which enthusiastic stakeholders meet and construct creative views on the future. The results serve as starting points for new initiatives, such as applied research programs or public-private cooperation. Project participants are the most important ambassadors of the results, which are also distributed through the media, lectures and workshops. STT was established in 1968 by The Netherlands Royal Institute of Engineers (KIVI). STT is a non-profit organization funded by the Dutch government and business contributions. STTʼs advisory board consists of around 30 members who are selected among contributors and scientific institutions, all appointed on personal title. In addition, STT hosts two academic chairs on futures studies and research. Do take a look at current and past foresight projects and our recent publications on our website. Address: P.O. Box 30424 2500 GK The Hague the Netherlands Telephone: +31 70 302 98 30 E-mail: info@stt.nl iChilles.com iChilles.com (pronounced as i-killies) is focussed on closing the gap between engineers and designers. The name iChilles is a mix of Achilles and the popular i-culture. The later stands for the modern day information age, hence the “i” of information. As company we try to find the achilles heel of your companyʼs products / services / business models, and improve them by making it a design. The social stigma forced onto designers often eludes the true nature of what designers are capable of. Designers do not only make aesthetic designs, but also have the capacity to analyze trends in the market, discover hidden consumer values, set up entire projects and more as can be read on our website. The value of working with us becomes visible in projects as is described in this booklet. Alternative insights are created, based on in depth research. The capacity of bringing the findings of a research to a product range is what could be described as the core value of a industrial designer. As iChilles.com we add the business side of design and the translation of engineering products to a design level. Business model to a designer do not just concern cost-price calculation ed. but also consumer crystallization. Please visit the website, and feel free to ask for more information. www.ichilles.com info@ichilles.com # Special thanks to: Dr. Koert van Mensvoort, MSc, MFA Client Maurits Kreijveld, project leader of future study of wisdom of the crowd at “Stichting Toekomstbeeld der Techniek” prof.dr. Ben Schouten Lois Reinert, for her pictures 6 Bas Reus, Social Tech Manager at Favela Fabric, for his expert insights and feedback Jos Wieleman, ABN Amro Everyone who helped with the user tests and contributed to a great design research project outcome Abstract Because of the internet, nowadays, more effective use of the collective knowledge of a group can be made in a way that improves knowledge and produces greater insight. This phenomenon is widely referred to as the ʻwisdom of crowdʼ. The challenge of wisdom of the crowd is the mechanism of aggregating different contributions and finding a balance. Decision making processes are crucial in this process. In this project three tools were developed to manage this decision making process and allow for the process to be adjusted to the character of the crowd. The first concept is the Genome cards, that serve as an analyzing tool for wisdom of the crowd systems, and also as a road mapping tool for initiators whom want to start a system that makes use of the crowd. The cards are laid out in a sequence called a string, thereby answering the main questions of What?, Who? Why? and How? A collection of these strings is called a genome and is a synonym for the entire wisdom of the crowd system. The second concept is the Genome Game where the Genome cards are used to make the rules of the game. Basic rules as building a city and moving a pawn are predetermined. The aim of this game is to stimulate the players to think about political solutions to preserve nature as the original project description depicted. A digital solution called the Genome back-end is a websiteʼs backend that can be controlled by the crowd as well as the initiator, thus allowing the website to change according to the wishes of the users. An initiator whom wants to start up a wisdom of the crowd system should make use of the trend of the crowd wanting more control, and therefore make use of the Genome concept considering this includes both the freedom to the crowd, and the control over the crowd. 7 Table of contents 1. Introduction 11 8 ! 1.1 Design brief 12 ! 1.2 Research questions 13 ! 1.3 Methodology 15 ! 1.4 Exploration 15 ! 1.5 Scenarios 16 ! 1.6 Proposition 16 2. Iteration I 19 ! 2.1 Methodology 20 ! 2.2 Literature study 20 ! 2.3 Brainstorm 41 ! 2.4 Scenario modeling (take I) 42 ! 2.5 Expert evaluation 53 ! 2.6 Reflection 54 3. Iteration II 57 ! 3.1 Methodology 58 ! 3.2 Feedback analysis 58 ! 3.3 Scenario selection 58 ! 3.4 User testing 61 ! 3.5 Scenario modeling (take II) 68 ! 3.6 Expert evaluation 73 ! 3.7 Reflection 76 4. Iteration III 79 ! 4.1 Methodology 80 ! 4.2 Feedback analysis 80 ! 4.3 Final proposition 81 ! 4.4 Expert evaluation 92 ! 4.5 Application of the RQʼs 92 Conclusion & Recommendations 95 References 96 Appendices 104 ! I Research recent digital crowdsourcing solutions 105 ! II Three scenarios 106 ! III SWOT analysis 110 ! IV User test denationaledialoog.nl 101 ! V Genome cards 116 9 INTRODUCTION “Things should be made as simple as possible, but not to simple” (Albert Einstein) V 10 Photo by Lois Reinert INTRODUCTION 1.Introduction The topic of this design research project has sprung to live as we recently experienced a crash in our economic world. We have become more aware then ever before what implications our economic and industrious structures have for an influence on the environment. As the natural world is more and more threatened, humanity is about to steal herself from the richness nature can offer, and all the knowledge that is still hidden within this fascinating world. As a design researcher it is of upmost relevance to preserve this source of inspiration, admiration and provider of goods. Nevertheless people are already trying to reach consensus with mother nature and so this report focusses on a specific element by which this can be done. Using the intelligence of the crowd and determining the best decision making process to control it can help entrepreneurs to organize their wisdom of the crowd systems to be more profitable. The aim is to form a birds eye perspective on ongoing discussions surrounding decision making in a wisdom of the crowd platform, using design methods to structure them, create new insights and communicate these to a wider public. The outcome of this project will be available to the public and will be input for the future study “wisdom of the crowd” at the Stichting Toekomstbeeld der Techniek, lead by Maurits Kreijveld. Considering this is a Next Nature project it should explore the changing notion of nature while mankind is cultivating nature more and more and becoming more and more complex and interconnected. In this Next Nature the dynamics of ʻthe crowdʼ will play a great role. 11 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Design brief Considering this research project had a different focus, the original design brief is stated below. ~ As stated by Koert van Mensvoort ~ “The starting point of the Eco-Currency project is the hypothesis that an important factor in our current environmental crisis is the disconnect between the economical ecology and the environmental ecology. With the latter we mean the ecology of plants, trees, animals, and other organic material. Whereas the economical ecology is defined by our financial system of market, money, goods and other economical exchange. Our second working hypothesis states that we could address environmental issues by linking the economical sphere and the environmental sphere in a better way than currently the case. 12 Before diving into an analysis we should address the question whether it is necessary to be critical of addressing ecology as metaphor or structure vis a vis ecology as an organic threatened living environment that we are part of? Especially traditional environmentalist might object to describing both spheres as ʻecologiesʼ, and argue it is inconsiderate to use the same term for a man–made system as well as for the older and deeper organic ecology of nature. Surely they have a point here: the environmental ecology is not only much older than the economical ecology, it also presides it in the sense that the economical ecology cannot exits without the environmental ecology. On the other hand we must realize that, while the environmental ecology is threatened, the economical ecology is currently the most threatening one. Hence it should be taken seriously and not be waved aside as simply a manmade structure. The fact that most people, at least in the western world, nowadays worry more about the financial crisis and their mortgage rates, than about hurricanes or floods exemplifies that the economical ecology has increasingly become a ʻnext nature” with its own dynamics and autonomy. Like a true nature, it can be benevolent and kind as well as wild, cruel and unpredictable.” INTRODUCTION ~ As added by the designer~ As for this research project the prior focus will be on the decision process surrounding wisdom of the crowd systems. Arguments have been proposed in favor and against the true benefit of making use of such systems, this report will try to give a definitive answer to whether or not the wisdom of the crowd can be beneficial and in what way. Therefore the expression and definition of the EcoCurrency is not yet formulated and is not the main focus of this report. We felt the urge to raise a more fundamental question on which future wisdom of the crowd structures can be build. From this knowledge a system can be thought up that serves the Eco-Currency 1.2 Research questions As this project aims at a focus towards the Design Brief, the main research question is therefore more specific: “How can wisdom of the crowd / co-creation / crowd-sourcing be employed to serve the decision making process?” Leading up to this main research question are the sub-questions as they are stated below: 1. What existing 'wisdom of the crowd' platforms exists that could potentially be used? (Make a full analysis of pro & cons) 2. How is / will decision making (be) practiced? 3. What are the possibilities of going beyond the default webinterface? (think of physical, locative, or mobile solutions) 4. What are the objective guidelines that can be taken from the first three questions? 5. How actively involved will the participants have to be? 6. What psychological and social effects contribute to decision making? 7. How is the decision process best organized? 8. How do you aggregate such a process? 9. Is the collective good of the crowd an intelligent good? 13 INTRODUCTION 1.3 Methodology The nature of this M1.2 project depicts that it is a research project. Nevertheless this does not mean that it should consist solely out of research, considering my designer background. An iterative approach(I) should allow me to research with every iteration while still working on concretizing the conclusion subtracted from the research. The iterations are graphically displayed in figure 1.1 and described in more detail below here. Iteration I: The first iteration will start with answering the subquestions as they were stated in paragraph 1.2. This will result in an insight knowledge which in turn would give rise to three design scenarios. Presenting this at the mid-term exhibition and an expert evaluation would provide me with feedback which can be analyzed in the second iteration. 14 Iteration II: After analyzing the feedback from the first iteration, one scenario will come out as the winner. This scenario will then be usertested and an evaluation of the result follows. Iteration III: The third and final iteration will start with analyzing the feedback from the user tests and concretizing this scenario to a final proposal. Along with the opinion of experts and reflecting on them will be the foundation of the final conclusion and recommendations. 1.4 Exploration The main focus of this project is to broaden the view on intelligence of the crowd based decision making. The eleven questions are used as creator of a proper backbone to base the following iterations upon. The research will be explorative in order to maintain a wide viewing angle on the matter. This in turn allows me to design openly and start without any prior assumptions. INTRODUCTION Iteration I: Iteration II: Iteration III: Fig.1.1: Description of the three research iterations (Analysis, Conceptualization, Realization & Evaluation) 15 INTRODUCTION 1.5 Scenarios Every scenario that is created is subdued to an expert evaluation in order to get a perspective on their realistic nature. Conclusions, assumptions and findings can then be validated or refuted correspondingly. This approach makes use of scenario based expert validation methods used in other fields of design, thus allowing me to communicate ideas quickly. The questions that will rise with the scenarios will cover several levels(I,II), and so making their relevance apparent after critically assessing the feedback. Besides the three scenarios that will be brought back into one final scenario, a video, presentation, a game or a prototype will be delivered as final deliverables. 1.6 Proposition 16 Considering the design brief has been altered, it has been decided that this report provides an overall proposition along with an proposition based on the Eco-Currency. This outcome is based on the design research and is thus open for debate. These discussable conclusions function as a pavements for further development and research. 17 END OF THE INTRODUCTION I T E R AT I O N I 18 “Before the beginning of great brilliance, there must be chaos. Before a brilliant person begins something great, they must look foolish in the crowd.” V Photo by Lois Reinert I T E R AT I O N I 2.Iteration I Iteration I Wisdom of the crowd is a system where the initiator of a project makes use of the productivity / ideas / creativity / opinions of the crowd and so get for filled in his / her wishes. This chapter is about finding out how this has been done in the past, present and will be done in the future. By using sub-questions that target specific fields of interest to the main question, datum points are laid out to extrapolate a future estimation upon. This will result into three design research scenarios, and one extra to suit the original project description of the EcoCurrency. From the research that is necessary to answer the sub-questions, a method will be created that can easily analyze the make up of a “wisdom of the crowd” system. This is useful when attempts are made to make future assessments on the way these systems should be organized. By using scenario modeling and input from experts, the created concepts get a more solid groundwork as they are initially derived from research and logic reasoning. 19 I T E R AT I O N I 2.1 Methodology The first iteration starts with answering the sub-questions as they were stated earlier. This will result in an in depth knowledge which in turn would give rise to three design scenarios. Presenting this at the mid-term exhibition and to experts would provide me with feedback which can be analyzed in the second iteration. 20 Fig.2.1: Iteration one (Analysis, Conceptualization, Realization & Evaluation) 2.2 Literature study By researching papers, internet articles and other sources of information a greater insight was gained which was used to fill in the following sub-questions: ~ What existing 'wisdom of the crowd' platforms exists that could potentially be used? ~ The first step in answering this question is to find out what solutions there are that make use of the knowledge of the crowd. A table with a few of the websites using wisdom of the crowd can be found in appendix I. This table shows the “What?”, “Who?”, How?” and “Why?” of these web-solutions. The implementation of these questions was inspired by a research done by MIT in Cambridge.(IV) This devision would make it possible to assign genes(IV) to each websolution. These genes function as parts of a greater structure as in this case the entire wisdom of the crowd system. I T E R AT I O N I The genes will be used to make a genome, and so a formulated structure can be derived from every wisdom of the crowd structure. This makes it easier to subtract the relevant data from the structures and comparing them. Furthermore the genomes (IV) can be altered or extended giving new solutions for wisdoms of the crowds websites. Who? The crowd: With wisdom of the crowd systems, the most important participant must be the crowd because its presence is the foundation of the principle. Individual: Every individual in a group can choose to participate in an activity if and when they want to. For example, everyone can submit a software module to the Linux platform, as other individuals also do so in the group they are in. Another example can be Wikipedia as anyone can submit an update, or even a totally new article. The strength of a crowd is that it is abundant and self-replenishing. When a crowd looses member lets say because they reach a certain age, other individuals join the crowd when they just come into the relevant age group. A weakness of the crowd is its consistence in intellect. Many different individuals with many different intellectual backgrounds group together to form the crowd. An organizer of the crowd could be dealing with wide spread depth in solutions and / or concepts, and so he or she needs a formidable decision making protocol to benefit from the wisdom of the crowd. Hierarchical organizations: These are the structures that currently setup the wisdom of the crowd services and try to exploit them. The basic definition for this gene would be an individual whom assigns an other individual or group to a specific task. An example of this can also be found within the Linux structure as updates to software modules is reviewed by Torvalds and 21 I T E R AT I O N I Lieutenants (staff) which are names for top decision making hierarchical functions.(VI) The real strength of a hierarchal structure is seen when more elaborate tasks are performed by the crowd. Here the crowd is often in fewer numbers, and for the individual of the crowd it is harder to catch up with misdeeds of the hierarchical organization as they require more in depth knowledge of the subject matter. The top of the hierarchical structure provides insight and knowledge to the crowd, and decides over final subject matter as they are relevant directly to the initiator. Besides being a provider, it functions also as a controller of the crowd. As the hierarchal structure maintains order. Having full control over the crowd can in some cases be a weakness as was demonstrated by Greenpeace, with their project of “naming a whale”. 22 Greenpeace wanted to get more attention for its “safe the whale” program(VII) and so decide to involve the crowd in naming a whale, making the crowd more involved with the cause with the extra benefit of creating publicity. Out of the names that were suggested, Mister Splashy Pants was in favor with the crowd. Nevertheless Greenpeace did not like it, especially not after this name was voted to be the number one pick of the crowd. Therefore Greenpeace decided to delay the final decision date with a week, to see whether the crowd would choose one of the other names Greenpeace did like. The crowd was not happy about this decision and more social networking sites, blogging websites and forum s were drawn into the voting system, making the votes for Mister Splashy Pants go up even more. Finally the name selected by the crowd won, and Greenpeace learned from the situation, as they now sale merchandise of Mister Splashy Pants. It seems that giving total control to the crowd does not have to be a threat to the quality of the outcome. Greenpeace did I T E R AT I O N I not only reach their goals, the crowd took them to a new income level. Fig.2.2: Mister Splashy pants logo made by the crowd, before (left) and after (right) the postponed decision day. (3) Why? Price money: A large fraction of the total wisdom of the crowd based websites offer the crowd financial gain through money prices. The details can differ as some award the ten best and others the one that delivers the single best concept. Money is a suitable price for a crowd considering that the real value of money can be determined by the individual of the person that receives it. The wishes of the individuals within the crowd are diverse, and so a price that is unrelated to specific wishes, but can be exchanged to gain individual wishes is complementary. Affection: Whenever an individual or group participates in a wisdom of the crowd concept creation, affection with the project can come from the pleasure they have being involved in the project. Furthermore socializing with others during the process, contributing to a cause and love for a brand can all cause affection. Affection can become dangerous to a wisdom of the crowd project when personal attachment gets entangled with group decisions. A person can loose inspiration and motivation when a projects heads a different direction then to his/her liking. 23 I T E R AT I O N I Maintaining this admiration can give the wisdom of the crowd initiator a loyal, dedicated and cheap group of workers whom are prepared and capable to deliver high end deliverables. Exposure: For example with the programmers of Linux software modules, the programmers can gain recognition and exposure of their skills by participating in the crowd. The crowd can feedback on the individual and create value for him/her by acknowledging their contribution. This gene can have close ties with the affection gene because of the personal link to the design. If so, exposure creates an extra motivator for the individuals within the crowd. What & how? 24 The questions “What & How?” can be divided into several basic genes as they are described in the table below. The “What?” gene is divided in the create & decide gene, the “How?” is divided in the independent and dependent gene. Table.2.1: Variations of the what & how gene (IV) Independent Dependent Create Collection Collaboration Decide Individual decision Group decision Collection: The process of an individual creating concepts and / or content within the crowd independent from each other is called collection. Besides the benefit of a potential fast amount of concepts acquired through the crowd, selecting them needs a good decision making process. Contest: An important sub-gene is the contest gene where individuals within the crowd compete with each other. The best ideas I T E R AT I O N I and concepts are moved upwards in appreciation and are rewarded correspondingly. Either the crowd or the initiator determines the winning concepts. An example for this gene is the website Netflix(VIII) where an algorithm delivered by the crowd, which makes an addition to the existing algorithm of Netflix, can award the individual a price of $1 million. Contests can create an environment where individuals within the crowd no longer seek contact, or are unwilling to openly share ideas. This can be counterproductive concerning the end goal. On the other hand, rivalry can push individuals within the crowd to compete with each other and take themselves to higher planes of creation. Provide: This basically is a gene from prior to wisdom of the crowd models as its main focus is providing information. Collaboration: The collaboration gene is active when the crowd solves a problem as an unity. In practice this is clearly visible in Wikipediaʼs framework. When an article is approved by the staff of Wikipedia, many individuals can update this article. As the article passes through several iterations of development one can say that the article has moved from an individual submission, to a collaborative group submission as many individuals are now cowriter of the article. Group decision: When members of the crowd, assess work of individuals within that crowd, one can speak of a group decision. Group decisions can render an individual genius obsolete and so the system looses valuable information. Nevertheless the group can also expend a great idea by not creating it, but participating in the concretization of it when this is to much work for an individual. Voting: Is a sub-gene that means the group decides upon individual work of crowd members by casting a vote. Digg.com is a typical example, as the crowd votes for the most interesting article that will be prominently displayed on the website. 25 I T E R AT I O N I Again, the threat of loosing valuable information is present here. As something interesting for the individual can be voted out because it does not fit the interest of the crowd. As was explained earlier in the story about Greenpeace the crowd can in fact know better and force a different decision through voting. Nevertheless it cant be stated on a single event that this is a absolute good thing to practice. Consensus: This gene functions on the mutual perception of all, or nearly all individuals of the crowd. An example is Wikipedia with an article that is finished. When it is finished, nobody changes itʼs content anymore and so the crowd agrees that the article is finished. 26 Not all members of the crowd are actively participating and therefore a consensus can only be reached by the active crowd, while the consensus however should not have been reached yet. This can be seen with very specific articles in Wikipedia where few people have information about. An inactive individual can search for information that he cannot find in the article, while the active community thinks this article is completed. The active crowd however does have more involvement in the decision making process as they control the final version of the articles. This creates value to them as they appreciated for delivering to a final concept. Averaging: By averaging the outcome of the crowd, a decision can be derived. Amazon.com uses averaging with the rating of CDʼs as members of the crowd leave their appreciation of the products behind on the website in the form of stars. As with voting, also averaging can eliminate the individual genius. Nevertheless the decision making process is more circumstantial and so the crowd can more easily recognize their personal input as validated in the final result. Prediction markets: Lets the crowd make estimations on the probability of events. I T E R AT I O N I The benefit of this gene is that the crowd can spot trends, and even create them. Nevertheless these trends are percentage based and offer no absolute answer. Individual decisions: This means that an individual within the crowd can decide for him- or herself without the need of consensus with the crowd in entirety. A visitor of youtube.com as an practical example for this gene, as this individual watches a movie of his / her preference. The full control of the individual can sometimes lead to negative effects. As for example an individual can watch a video that has content that is not suited for his or her age, then there is little control over this and preventing him/her from watching the video. The freedom of personal decision making creates a value on its own considering that he or she is free to decide and thus has the feeling of control. Markets: This gene involves a formal exchange like money. Ebay.com, a web shop, is a practical example of the implications of this gene. When it concerns digital markets, or practical markets, thieves and conmen have always tried to make use of the naivety of the individuals. For web-based solutions at least it can be said that no physical harm can be done by these wrongdoers. Social networks: The crowd shares content with each other. The content can be pictures, video, stories and even themselves. It is up to the individual of the crowd what they decide to send and receive to and from the crowd. Building the genome: As the genes of wisdom of the crowd websites are now clear. It is possible to begin sequencing them into genomes. These genomes can describe the entire wisdom of the crowd system in recognizable and repeating patterns. When this is applied, correlations, trends, strengths and weaknesses can more easily be gathered. The standard model below shows the genes, and the gene groups in the form of the four main questions, that are discussed earlier this chapter. 27 I T E R AT I O N I Standard model 28 Fig.2.3: The standard genome model (4) The Linux example is worked out to show how making a genome works. This is an example from the Linux decision framework dedicated to allowing new software modules from the crowd. As (1&2) the crowd creates new modules, (3) they do this for money or glory and often (4) collaborate during the process. The “staff” of Linux (5&6) decides what modules are relevant, and do this for their love for the product and the glory received from peers. The final decision (8) is based on hierarchy between different “staff” members. When this is written down into a string it looks like this: - [What = create; who = crowd; why = money/glory; how = collaboration] - [What = decide; who = Torvalds&lieutenants; why = love/glory; how = hierarchy] I T E R AT I O N I Example: Linux 29 Fig.2.4: An example of the genome model (4) ~ How is/will decision making (be) practiced? ~ In order to extrapolate the future of wisdom of the crowd decision making, two datum points are necessary. Last sub-questions answered the current strategies. Following will be some past key examples that, together with current key moments, will form the groundwork for an extrapolation to the future. Gathering information: Before wisdom of the crowd websites came to the broad public and boomed, information was gathered through interviews and user tests. One can say that user testing is more personal compared to the modern digital way information is gathered from the crowd. (5) Fig.2.5: 99 Designs logo I T E R AT I O N I However the involvement of the user (crowd) is presently far greater. Complete designs are delivered as with “99 designs” for example. Recognition and awards are appointed to individuals of the crowd. The shift from users as a source of just information (the old way), to a crowd with information, and the capability to conceptualize this (new way) is a leap in user-company relations. The genes of the “old way” can be derived as: - [What = provide information; who = crowd; why = money/glory; how = collaboration] - [What = decide; who = company; why =money; how = hierarchy] The genes of the “new way” can be derived as: - [What = create; who = crowd; why = money/glory; how = collaboration] - [What = decide; who = company; why = money; how = hierarchy] 30 The only change in these genomes is the role of the user/crowd as they at first provide information with which the company can create a profile and/or concept with. And in the “new way” the crowd creates information and/or a concept for the company. Concept selection: Concept selection has been evolving from creations by companies, to complete control by the crowd. As Lays does with their crisps by letting the crowd come up with a new taste, and then letting the crowd select from the three best tastes that came out of the competition. (IX) Fig.2.6: Lays crisps contest (6) A second example was already explained about naming a whale by Greenpeace, where the crowd eventually took the decision process I T E R AT I O N I over completely, and got to pick the name of their liking against the original wishes of Greenpeace. This example shows an interesting change in the genome, namely: - [What = create; who = company; why = exposure; how = collaboration] - [What = decide; who = crowd; why = glory; how = collaboration] In this situation the crowd did not create a concept, but rather had to choose the best one that was offered. So the roles are switches, the company creates, and the crowd decides. However the, Greenpeace wanted to have a say in the decision as the apparent outcome was not the one they hoped for. Looking at the genome it is obvious that this is a bad move, considering that the original intent of this system was using the crowd for decision making. Taking back the control by Greenpeace was “punished” by the crowd and so the crowd showed there strength. Product purchase: Modern day consumers are often researching internet first, before buying a product online or in a store. This makes the consumer smarter relative to pre-internet consumers. Although the new technology is responsible for this change, it does change the way consumers look at products and from that point of view buy products. Consumers are more aware of the technical capabilities of products, and so it is less likely they commit a bad purchase. When these subject are compared and zoomed out, the governing change in the decision process is more control. From concept to realization, the crowd gets more control. When this progress line is extrapolated then the control should keep on increasing by time. ~ What are the possibilities of going beyond the default webinterface? ~ Future technologies can push wisdom of the crowd systems as much as the internet changed the crowd-company relations. The genes that were set up earlier in this text can give a better understanding of what these system would look like in the future. 31 I T E R AT I O N I 3D-printing: As printing evolves from 2D to 3D a new gene can come alive in de wisdom of the crowd genome. Table.2.3: Future variations of the how gene 32 Independent Dependent Create Collection Collaboration Decide Individual decision Group decision Realize Production Manufacturing Table 2.3 shows a new governing gene called “realize”. This addition is derived from the continuous increase of control of the crowd, together with 3D-printing. It is imaginable that one day these printer enter the consumer market and the crowd can be involved from ideas to concept selection to finally creating. Naturally this can be done independently, as an individual in a crowd selects a certain product online, en prints it at home. This product then off course arose from the knowledge of the crowd. The second is a collaborative state where for example multiple individuals print a product to a final state. Lets say there are different types of printers in the future as there are now, only then the differences are on a higher lane. For example, one printer could print chips, and the other can print aluminum, and yet another can print electronics boards. This group of three can then print most electronic devices like phones, when they find a suitable battery. Fig.2.7: 3D-printed skull (7) Cloud computing: Modern day internet connectivity along with highend computer power creates a new opportunity for making use of the crowd. As the systems can be inked up to create a super computer for individuals or organizations to use. This creates the new gene called “compute”. I T E R AT I O N I Table.2.4: Future variation of the how gene Compute Independent Dependent Computing Crowd computing These can then be divided into the independent “computing” gene and the dependent “cloud computing” gene. Independent computing would mean the computational power one has on its computer, and using it for a purpose opposed by the crowd. This is a current day exploration as every web-based wisdom of the crowd organizations makes use of it. Nevertheless the dependent form is not that common yet. SETI did explore this option by making a screensaver that researched their data on patterns to prove alien life.(X) Passive decision making: As Google recently announced a technique (XI) that allows them to predict a flew epidemic, passive decision making is starting to get a more prominent role in wisdom of the crowd systems. As user searches the internet using Google, and using keywords about their health complaints, Google can analyze that input and derive a increase in health related issues. A future estimation of this concept has already been thought up by the writer os the Sci-Fi series “Caprica” (XII) where a young computer genius uses the personal information left by the crowd on the internet to reconstruct the soul of specific persons. These three technology examples again show a more influential role of the crowd in a system. As companies and organizations used to outsource their manufacturing, they are now trying to make use of the wisdom of the crowd. Realize that in most cases outsourcing was intended for manufacturing purposes, and crowd sourcing still functions within the rome of data collection and concept generation. Nevertheless thanks to new technologies, the top two developments might come together as the crowd starts producing without the necessary help of companies. This results in a progress of going from outsourcing, to crowd sourcing, to crowd production. 33 I T E R AT I O N I ~ What are the objective guidelines that can be taken from the first three questions? ~ Guidelines for setting up a wisdom of the crowd website can be divided into two groups. The first being the guidelines taken from the current existing websites. The second group is based on the future extrapolation. Group one: Guidelines for current wisdom of the crowd websites are: 1. Be clear - Be clear in the problem you wish to have solved, the concept you would like the crowd to work on, clear about the value exchange with all the stakeholders and be clear in you communication and layout. The crowd should only be focussed on solving the problem on hand, not wrestling through the website trying to find out information. 34 2. Select the right decision model - When dealing with a problem or any other reason to make use of the wisdom of the crowd. Make sure that the right decision model is chosen. As research has shown, complex problems are better dealt with hierarchy. And simple problems should remain as open as possible. 3. Work with the right crowd - In order to get good concept back from the crowd, the crowd has to be able to fit in the knowledge group of the product or service for what wisdom of the crowd is being used. 4. Create value - Whether it is money, respect, love, create value for all stakeholders. Without proper value, the crowd will not be attracted, and so no wisdom of the crowd to use. Just as important is maintaining value. Mutual respect could be an example for this. An individual of the crowd is not an office worker, and therefore can step up more easily when he/she is upset. 5. Be open for change - Accept new genes whenever they arise. They allow the wisdom of the crowd system to remain up to date. I T E R AT I O N I 6. Vision - Have a vision to stimulate the crowd with. Although this can be seen as a value, and this is true. Nevertheless it is significant enough to be pointed out separately. A vision can also help creating a goal-specific crowd that a wisdom of the crowd company might want. 7. Diversity - Have diversity in the crowd to ensure unexpected creativity. 8. Create an environment - Create a social network, possibly products and services around your system to enhance the overall feeling of participation of the crowd. Group two: Additional guidelines for future wisdom of the crowd websites are: 1. Reflect on the genome - Keep reflecting on the genome in order to keep up with developments in the crowd, and with rising technologies. Discover new genes, and insert them to create a more stable future enterprise. 2. Create a negative factor - Make the crowd responsible for their actions, as the wisdom of the crowd system is linked to other social websites like social networking sites and Link-IN. This might create real value and status as the crowd actions become part of their portfolio. Negative behavior will in this way be countered and will provide an enriched interaction level. ~ How actively involved will the participants have to be? ~ This sub-question has a current and future answer. As it is possible to register how much stakeholders have to participate now, it is only an estimation on what future participation looks like. The crowd is key in both scenarios. What work they can offer determines the effective outcome of such system. A change however is the amount of control they get as a crowd. This does not necessarily mean that the workload will increase per person, as current demanding tasks have been handled by the crowd as well. As is done many times with the website of 99 designs where the 35 I T E R AT I O N I crowd can design a logo. This would take a lot of work when designed by a team of designers, because they have to come up with inspiration. The crowd however can post one idea per individual and still be richer in content and originality then a group of designers. Companies whom make use of he wisdom of the crowd concept have to maintain a proper working relation with the crowd. To do so they can choose to be actively involved with concept creation. Or let the crowd form a community sense and let creativity run free. Complexity of the concept determines the involvement of the company. The more elaborate and complex the concept is, the more company involvement and the more simplicity in the concept, the less involvement of the initiator is needed. The wisdom of the crowd websites naturally have to keep up with web developments and sequential updates. Furthermore this is often the medium that separates the crowd from the initiator and so 36 ~ What psychological and social effects contribute to decision making? ~ According to Sigmund Freud's crowd behavior theory (XIII) people behave differently in a group then when they are acting and / or thinking on their own. This could be a threat to the unique solutions of the individual, and so to the wisdom of the crowd system. Nevertheless the individualization (XIV) and anonymity that governs the internet makes it so that although people act and behave in a group considering the ties to each other, these are less bound as in the physical world. Therefore we can assume that the liability of group behavior and so group followers are less of a threat then outside the contours of the internet. In everyday life people can be, and are, hold accountable for their actions. Nevertheless when the behavior of this same crowd is analyzed when they are active online, borders of social construct seem to fade. This effect could be a social evolution construct, and that future generations do value the digital “other” more then people do today. I T E R AT I O N I Or the digital social construct if faulty and is in need of changing. This could be done with a negative feedback as was previously suggested. This would mean that the digital social status that the crowd maintains with for example Facebook and Linked-IN, could be enhanced with a online behavioral status. A trend of this is already visible as these websites already show the amount of activity one contributes to a different wisdom of the crowd website. Nevertheless this still means that no negative, and so corrective feedback is displayed. (XV,XVI) Perhaps a stronger demand for a strong balanced online social portfolio could be enforced by business in the future as they now already show interest in this matter when hiring new workers. ~ How is the decision process best organized? ~ Besides complying to the guidelines for setting up a wisdom of the crowd based platform, there are additional guidelines for setting up the decision process. As research shows, there is no single best solution for the decision process in a wisdom of the crowd system. Nevertheless, the depth of the concept on which the crowd is working, does relate to the decision model. As the concept is simple, the decision model is simple. And when the concept is complex, the decision model is more complex. The figure below shows a decision model as a company approaches a website to make use of the wisdom of the crowd. Outsource decision model: The wisdom of the crowd website distributes the problem to the crowd, and the crowd tries to come up with concepts. The value for the crowd is often a price along with potential credit by peers. The decision of the best concept is taken by the company as the website deals with offering the price (money). Fig.2.8: Outsource decision model - 37 I T E R AT I O N I The genomes for this process are: - [What = create; who = crowd; why = money/glory/exposure; how = collaboration] - [What = decide; who = company; why = money; how = hierarchy] Common decision model: The model below is the most common model found on websites. The company and / or organizations that makes a product and / or delivers a service, develops their own website to access the crowd. The decision making often happens by the company, but a trend is visible of companies selecting a top few of the many, and then letting the crowd select the winner. 38 Fig.2.9 / 2.10 / 2.11: Crowd source decision model, Crowd control decision model, Crowd production decision model The genomes for this process are: - [What = create; who = crowd; why = money/glory/exposure; how = collaboration] - [What = decide; who = company/; why = money; how = hierarchy] Figure 2.10 shows a trend discussed in the last example. A company uses a website to connect with the crowd, and the crowd offers concepts and chooses the best concept. The genomes for this process are: - [What = create; who = crowd; why = money/glory/exposure; how = collaboration] - [What = decide; who = crowd; why = glory/exposure; how = collaboration] I T E R AT I O N I - [What = create; who = company; why = money/exposure; how = collaboration] Crowd control decision model: As modern technologies like 3Dprinting and bio-printing progress, future projects could be entirely crowd based as figure 2.11 on the previous page shows. The genomes for this process are: - [What = create; who = crowd; why = money/glory/exposure; how = collaboration] - [What = decide; who = crowd; why = glory/exposure; how = collaboration] - [What = Manufacture; who = crowd; why = glory/exposure/money; how = collaboration] ~ How do you aggregate such a process? ~ By using the guidelines and choosing the correct decision model a proper wisdom of the crowd system can be created. The decision model should especially focus on the depth the concept or product the crowd has to work with. Examining the genomes an initiator can indicate with prior knowledge whether the system is going to work and what behavior not to be expressed by the different stakeholders. Internet remains the medium through which wisdom of the crowds system will function. As the platform is still in growth, and so has not yet reached its maximum, there is no apparent reason to assume another technology taking over this role. ~ Is the collective good of the crowd an intelligent good? ~ In order to answers this question, it must first be know what is considered as an intelligent crowd and what not. Considering the history of this remark (XVII) it depends on two subjects. The first subject considers how the individuals behave within the crowd. As was stated earlier, social bounds that keep us structured in our physical world often lack in the digital world. This behavior can, 39 I T E R AT I O N I when negative, be counterproductive and so is seen as nonintelligent. The second subject addresses the outcome of such wisdom of the crowd projects. The cloud is often blamed for a poor outcome as it can be in quantity or quality. As this design research report is trying to show this is assumption is not a fact, and is probably due to a poorly chosen / designed decision model. Nevertheless a poor quantity or quality is considered as non-intelligent behavior of the crowd. Now it is stated what is, and what is not intelligent behavior of the crowd, the sub-question can be researched and answered. Reflecting on the past research, it has to be obvious that this question is to black and white to answer. The crowd is not good or bad, and there thoughts and concepts are not good or bad. 40 Nevertheless this question does indicate a negative emotion, or even experience, when working with the wisdom of the crowd system. As research has shown that the structure of the decision making process and the structure of the wisdom of the crowd system determines the level of success. A negative result in the wisdom of the crowd process is actually not due to the crowd, but to the organization. Furthermore the result needs to be evaluated on the average. Naturally there are deviations to the extreme negative from individuals of the crowd. But similar deviations to the positive side represents a sublime concept or idea. One could say; in order to appreciate a sunny day, it has to rain form time to time. 2.3 Brainstorm On the following page a brainstorm is printed. This is the prelude to the scenario modeling that follows in scenario modeling, paragraph 2.4. The balloons represent different keywords of wisdom of the crowd systems. Values Genome builder: Different stakeholders build their own genome from the genes up Crowdʼed hospital: Groups within the crowd can start up an hospital as they print and place simple organs Causality: Most of the things we do now on the internet have no real consequence to other, however linking you activity to sites like Linked IN could change this and create more awareness. Wisdom of the crowd Crowd internet: As mobile devices become more capable and powerful, they could serve as a cloud server to host a second internet Crowd Reality Games: Games that are played now, are directly linked to the real world. As for flight control simulators that could receive real time data, and so the crowd can give a suggestion to the control tower for what to do. The strength of the crowd is the average value coming out. Individual Technologies TNT Crowd Company: Crowd in control of conceptualization to creation to deployment, everyone can start a production line within the crowd. I T E R AT I O N I 2.4 Scenario modeling (take I) The upcoming scenarios are developed using drivers and inhibitors. (III) When these arguments were written down on post-its, the post-its are placed on a whiteboard to form specific themes. From these themes the drivers and inhibitors are then evaluated on importance and uncertainty, as from which two main topics are chosen. These two topics are then the basis for one scenario. This process happens in cooperations with fellow students and two experts from the business field. As this scenario setup requires a system / concept that can be validated, we used the future “crowd production decision model”. We do not speak of a “company” anymore considering the company is now part of the crowd. The company sits within the crowd, or is a group functioning as a company within the crowd. 42 This approach is normally concluded with a number of scenarios, nevertheless it is left open considering this is a design research project. Therefore a combination will be made between the categorized brainstorm and the following scenarios setup. The most widely covering and interesting ideas are selected for this scenario modeling. Scenario I: Opens with the question; ~ What will be the future properties of Genome Builder 2.0? ~ Inhibitors Crowd issues: Acceptance: - What is the motivation towards the new relative to the old? - Is the outcome of the system recognizable? - Negative feedback from peers - Does the system produce profit? - Is the decision of the crowd what I want? Usability: - Is it still available to a broad public? I T E R AT I O N I - Can it be used without a learning curve? - Can the result of the crowd be easily filtered and processed? Security: - Can a new process maintain the same feeling of security? - How personal is the crowdʼs identity - New designs are less protected? - Theft is a risk - Derivatives are a risk Legal: - Are not selected ideas still property of the company? - What will happen to good ideas that are not chosen? - What is the legal evidence of cooperation to exist? Drivers Crowd issues: Acceptance: - New technology is exciting - Open source inspiration - High level of participation - Wanting to discover - Hope for improvement - Many potential workers - More/better data collection - Broader range of integrated services Usability: - More/better chances for the crowd to work together - Production cannot come to a standstill - Easier to filter concepts Security: - Protection against stealing ideas Legal: - Multiple stakeholders are working on the design with direct prove online what makes a new idea proven to be yours 43 I T E R AT I O N I Acceptance Uncertainty Usability Legal Security Importance Fig.2.12: Importance & uncertainty of scenario I 44 From the graph above, two subjects are selected that reach the furthest in the upper right corner, as that illustrates a great importance and a great uncertainty. These two subject are divided into the pros & cons as is seen below. The names in the quadrant suggest the scope the scenario should focus upon. As in this case it will focus on the pros of acceptance and usability, and the cons of acceptance. Acceptance pro New school Usability against Usability pro Old school Acceptance against Fig.2.13: Two main scopes of scenario I - I T E R AT I O N I New school: Future wisdom of the crowd websites could be based on the Genome Builder 2.0 software and enables the crowd to control the workings of the website. The “new school” scenario describes that portion of the crowd that is willing to explore and loves new technology. They are open for change and are willing to participate in it. Complications like security leaks are challenges to them instead of threats. In a sense these users are the more pro users we see active today on websites like Wikipedia. Old school: This is the scenario that describes the more common part of the crowd. They are less aware of all the depths of the Genome Builder 2.0 and the techniques it uses. That is the reason why they are more cautious making the full switch. Only time and practical proven successes can drag them over the final line of becoming a full admirer. Scenario II: Opens with the question; ~ What will be the future properties of Crowd Internet? ~ Inhibitors Crowd issues: Acceptance: - Is the internet worthy in content? - Is the new internet integrated into the old? - Are enough people willing to participate in it when launched? - What about battery life of the mobile devices? Usability: - How do we navigate through the new internet versions? - Can we access the old internet as well - How is the personal information of my device shown? Security: - Is the content on my mobile device safe from other users? - What about the sensitive information like my whereabouts? 45 I T E R AT I O N I Legal: - Who is responsible for hosting illegal sharing? Drivers Crowd issues: Acceptance: - New opportunities for an original internet that gets more closed up by law as downloading becomes illegal Usability: - New opportunities Security: - The server changes of host, and so hacking the foundation of the internet should be harder Uncertainty 46 Legal: - New laws are necessary to be created, give a second try on the modern internet Acceptance Legal Security Usability Importance Fig.2.14: Importance & uncertainty of scenario II I T E R AT I O N I Acceptance pro Square Dare devil Security against Security pro Acceptance against Fig.2.15: Two main scopes of scenario II Dare devil: Technology geeks and gadget enthusiasts will be more than willing to participate in a project as such. As they want to work on the front where all innovation happens, they actively seek out new ventures. Whether or not the system is top save, is no real big issue for them. They are aware of it and use it as such. Confidence will grow as they find out that development takes the project further. Square: This group is not so active in seeking out new technologies as their counterparts do. It makes them more of a “wait and see” kind of people. Eventually, with the right product growth, they might get on board. Scenario III: Opens with the question; ~ What will be the future properties of Crowdʼed Hospital? ~ Inhibitors Crowd issues: Acceptance: - Is it safe to use? - How is research funded 47 I T E R AT I O N I Usability: - Are the doctors qualified? - Is the hardware to experimental? Security: - How does the companyʼs experience and inside information kept safe? Legal: - Who is to blame for bad organ designs? - Are tweaks in the original design illegal? - Is it accepted by heath care? Drivers 48 Crowd issues: Acceptance: - In need of an organ - Shorter waiting lists - Start a company - Can individually participate in the process Usability: - Easily accessible - Research internet status Security: - Company name is immediately referenced to the internet Legal: - Provides a window for change in modern legal issues as the crowd can vote for change by just using this system I T E R AT I O N I Legal Acceptance Uncertainty Usability Security Importance Fig.2.16: Importance & uncertainty of scenario III Acceptance pro In need Visionaries Legal against 49 Legal pro Acceptance against Fig.2.17: Importance & uncertainty of scenario III Visionaries: The crowd in this scenario really wants to use the new service that is offered. After legal issues have been dealt with, the user can start to build up a trust foundation for this new system. As users of a new system they can make use of the new opportunities that will arise as tweaks are being made to original human body parts. I T E R AT I O N I In need: This crowd is in need of medical attention but is not yet able to have it due to long waiting lists. The new companies formed within the crowd can offer a solution to them, nevertheless legal issues prohibits them. Whether they are short on money, or health care forbids such treatments, they are prohibited to make use of this new medical solution. ~ What will be the future properties of TNT Crowd Company? ~ “This project has been setup for the potential use with the EcoCurrency. Furthermore this is an interesting field for decision making and as a bonus, it suits the original project description. Later on in the report this will change considering the advances made during the iterations.” Inhibitors 50 Crowd issues: Acceptance: - Sponsors might not have a commitment to the company as the stakeholder “farmer” has - Hard to reach the farmer as technology is needed for this - How is good communication maintained? Usability: - Farmers need an introduction to a computer - Companies might use it for personal gain - What is the project fails? Security: - What is the crowd acts as a company? - Who can hack that status in the system? Legal: - What illegal deals can be made by the stakeholders? - How can it be made mandatory for the companies to participate? - What if the investment points, Eco-Currency, is not reached? I T E R AT I O N I Drivers Crowd issues: Acceptance: - Stakeholders are connected - Farmers can seek out new opportunities that might be even more profitable - Build for a greater future Usability: - Online CV of your company - Gateway for companies to maintain fabrication methods? Security: - Process of the undertaking reviewed by the crowd Legal: - Give an opportunity to sell shares? Acceptance Uncertainty Usability Legal Security Importance Fig.2.18: Importance & uncertainty of scenario IV 51 I T E R AT I O N I Acceptance pro Eco-go Usability against Usability pro Eco-no Acceptance against Fig.2.19: Importance & uncertainty of scenario IV 52 Eco-go: The acceptance of the model is growing easily as more farmers get provided with the technology to maintain communication with stakeholders. Considering communication is key, the model has to perfect this and stimulate companies to use it. Although legal issues are great, the system will ultimately be successful or not depending on the level of communication. The farmers in this scenario are eager to explore new ways and therefore want to participate in conservation. Nevertheless they also want to make money and therefore see the benefit of being connected to a large financial market. Eco-no: Here the farmers have a hard time, or a hard head in using the communication tool offered to them. The step from practical to digital, and vise versa is to big for them. Mediators could offer a solution as they manage a specific region that is represented online. Exhibition scenarios: The scenarios are worked out to be presented at the midterm exhibition as they are displayed in appendix II I T E R AT I O N I 2.5 Expert evaluation Evaluation by experts active in the field of wisdom of the crowd platform have helped gaining insights on the validity of these scenarios as they will be described below. ~ Bas Reus, Social Tech Manager at Favela Fabric ~ Playful interaction: Mister Reus clearly stated that the future of wisdom of the crowd systems would more and more depend on playful interactions like games. He highly recommends awarding the crowd with values like appreciation and recognition instead of giving them a money price. A game would allow an initiator of a wisdom of the crowd system to these values more easily considering they are the foundation of regular games. Alternative currencies: When discussing the Eco-Currency, Mister Reus gave an example of raising a different kind of currency or actually a value. He notes that soldiers and officers in the army have ranks, but that the weigher of a promoted soldiers does not differ that much from a lower class soldier. The soldiers are motivated to get a promotion through rank and respect they get from peers. Also the job itself is a driver concerning that the promoted soldier gets more responsibility. This might not be a driver for everyone, just as more respect from peers does not have to be, but it could effect a large portion of the group to be stimulated in carrying out their function the best they can. ~ Maurits Kreijveld, client & project leader of future study of wisdom of the crowd at “Stichting Toekomstbeeld der Techniek” ~ Variation of decision making: Mister Kreijveld confirmed that there is a high value in a diversity of decision making models relative to the goal they are used for. The relation was set between political systems and systems used online. As even nowadays we have many forms of democracy, and even dictatorships. Concerning to the Genome Builder 2.0 concept this could be of high value when it could ad genes to the entire evolving genome. 53 I T E R AT I O N I 2.6 Reflection This orienting iteration gave a clear perspective on the depth that coincides with decision making. Clearly many studies are done, and still can be done to fully understand the deeper roots of human motivations and actions, especially with the more recent online personification of people. A key feature that has been discovered is the value of multiple decision making models. Not only for users, but also for the initiators as all people, and every project differs from one an other. The Genome Builder therefore seems to be a step in the right direction as it offer stability in the form of a model, and still the flexibility for personal preference and choice. 54 Many possibilities present themselves for future innovations when dealing with the wisdom of the crowd. However it has been chosen to focus on the near future, and the technologies that exist today, or in the near future to make the roadmap towards these new goals more easily recognizable. The gene and genome method are a good way to research data because it can transform a great amount of data into a few sentences. As a concept it has the benefit of flexibility and a new form of control. This as both the crowd and the initiator can appeal to the workings of the wisdom of the crowd system. 55 E N D O F I T E R AT I O N I I T E R AT I O N I I 56 “Whatever is unknown is magnified” (Publius Cornelius Tacitus) V Photo by Lois Reinert I T E R AT I O N I I 3.Iteration II Iteration II A SWOT analysis concludes the numerous concept given in the previous iteration to just the most important, backed up by arguments. This iteration will furthermore have a more hands on approach as test are developed and acted out with the help of probes. This in order to further the development of the concepts from the previous iteration. As a more final concept is developed, the first tests can be found in this chapter. Naturally all evolutions are considered with experts as they can be found in this second iteration. 57 I T E R AT I O N I I 3.1 Methodology The first iteration will start with answering the sub-questions as they were stated earlier. This will result in an in depth knowledge which in turn would give rise to three design scenarios. Presenting this at the mid-term exhibition and an expert evaluation would provide me with feedback which can be analyzed in the second iteration. 58 Fig.3.1: Iteration two (Analysis, Conceptualization, Realization & Evaluation) 3.2 Feedback analysis The feedback that Bas Reus gave concerning a reward for the crowd with appreciation and recognition instead of price money is interesting considering a game naturally possesses these elements. As many people invest a lot of time and effort in getting status within a game, practically for just the return of fun and recognition. This could be an interesting approach for an Eco-Currency concept. Mister Kreijveld noted that the richness of modern day political structures could influence the Genome Builder concept. As for each different wisdom of the crowd websiteʼs problem, there is a different approach for addressing the crowd. 3.3 Scenario selection In order to from downsize the three scenarios, plus an additional scenario for the Eco-Currency concept, a SWOT analysis (XXV) is performed for all concepts. This should give a clear overview of all I T E R AT I O N I I the positive and negative points of the concept, enabling a selection of the best, or a merger of the best features into one. The aim is to end up with one decision model concept and one Eco-Currency concept. SWOT analysis: The SWOT analysis shows arguments for and against the different concepts as is seen in appendix III. From the SWOT an analysis can be made on which two concepts could be complementary as it is stated in the first iteration that the decision model chosen for the system is key for the success of such a system. The “Crowdʼed Hospital” soon gives way as it does not address the ecological issues stated for the Eco-Currency at all. The same thing can be said for the “Causality” and “Crowd Internet” concept. As the “Causality” concept could be part of the structure of a wisdom of the crowd system. The “Crowd Internet” concept does stimulate communication what could be valuable as an open source of communication that in its turn could stimulate the market. However that is a research on itʼs own. The “Genome Builder” and “Crowd Reality Game” concepts are compatible as the former is more of a structural concept and the latter is more of a visual concept of potential the same structural concept. The two concepts are complementary as the threat for the “Genome Builder” is that people might make mistakes in selecting a certain genes or genomes. Besides the crowd trying to filter this out, the crowd is actively experiencing what their changes to the system cause in the game, and so makes the crowd more aware of their mistakes and the consequences. Emergent systems: Implementing the trend of the community gaining more control over the wisdom of the crowd system, the concept should appeal to more people. The “Genome Builder” enables this trend to be implemented with the game. As the crowd can modify, suggest and vote off different options of the game. Genome Builder cards probe: The Genome builder concept will be tested by making cards on which different solutions of the questions; What?, Who?, Why? and How? Are displayed. On the back of the 59 I T E R AT I O N I I cards the solutions are described shortly. This functionality of the cards represents the portion that could be chosen by the crowd when they modify the programming of a website. A finished function-set that contains all the main questions is called a string. An example of the cards is visible below in figure 3.2. 60 Fig.3.2: Genome Cards concept-probe Genome Game: Besides this game containing the Genome Builder, further functionality has not been established till thus far. Therefore a brainstorm was organized with people from different disciplines representing the diversity of the crowd, and a different source solution then from a designer. The four persons in question have a background in; management, urban design, sociology and economics. The former has extensive board game experience and is therefore especially valuable to this team. To maintain some control, and oversee the progress I took part in this brainstorm as well. The game should in general be played as Farmville.com is played. A relative simple layout with integrated communication with a social networking site like Facebook.com. Below here there are several quotes that were taken from the brainstorm about what the game should look like after the idea of the Genome Builder was explained to the participants. ~ Periodically based game for continuing testing of ideas ~ I T E R AT I O N I I In order to maintain testing of concepts, the game must allow a periodic reset. Initially this was thought to be on a fixed base. But later this was changed to a self-killing system. This means that there are several tables that a player could be assigned to. Here one plays the game with all the alterations this local crowd suggests. The longer the game can run the better this local crowd is performing in making suitable changes in the game. When the game ends in bankruptcy or in total devastation of nature, the table resets, and the players are organized randomly over all the available tables. ~ Initiator law ~ Certain laws within the game can be forced by the initiator of the system to test out certain principles and concepts. Naturally these can be voted of as well as they are still open to the crowd due to the genome builder. ~ Corporate strategy ~ If one individual within the crowd is good in economic growth of his business, but less in the ecological growth. Contracts could be signed with other players to maintain a good balance between nature and economics. This could lead to an effect as we see today as the western world is prospering with technology, as third world countries do not. But nevertheless these third world countries do often possess the greatest amounts of ecological value. This division is not wanted considering that local ecological prosperity is stronger in dealing with pollution. (XVIII) Therefore a rule within the game might be that building green around the business could give more income. Then cooperation between individuals within the crowd is still beneficial. 3.5 User testing Because both concepts are bound to each other, this first test will try to determine the functionality of the Genome builder concept. The outcome of this test should determine the potential of the two becoming a worthwhile undertaking. 61 I T E R AT I O N I I Realize: By printing cards that illustrate the different functionalities. People can make different strings for an existing website. The cards are low fidelity in order to serve as a probe. (III) The different colors help the user recognize what type of card he or she is holding. There are many potential options, and so many cards and therefore it could be hard to find the right one. Along with the prefabricated cards, every main question has a number of empty cards in its deck to allow the user to create their own cards and expend the system. 62 User test #1: Before the test actually began, all test subjects were introduced with the website; www.denationaledialoog.nl. They were asked to register and try to use the websiteʼs different functions. The website itself is a place where the crowd is used to give ideas, and talk about concepts initiated by the initiator in this case being the government. People can start their own topic by sending a letter and acquiring support from the crowd. The topics mostly concern political issues that concern the public. The test subjects were asked to browse around and see whether they would like to chance certain aspects of it. After this introduction all 24 people in total are asked to perform a website research with the genome builder concept. This means they get a standard layout of the Genome Builder cards as the website is now, and can adapt it by their wishes. The standard layout is seen in appendix IV along with the alterations the test subjects made when using the Genome Builder cards. The test subjects were gathered within the community of Eindhoven and Groningen outside the direct influence of the TU/Industrial Design. This was done intentionally because the test should give answers for people who do not question every single layout and function as a designer is trained to do so. As is seen in appendix IV, the functional layout consists out of four main themes as is the case with the website. The following four themes within the website mean: # I T E R AT I O N I I Talk along: This theme handles certain topics on which the public or the crowd can react upon. The crowd can give ideas and search for solutions. The best ideas are offered to the government and can be transformed to a lobby, which is theme four. Take part: Here the crowd is asked to share their plans and find support from the crowd. The aimed result is that the crowd will then realize this goal in the physical world. Co-design: Experts and opinion makers share their concepts on the website, where the crowd on itʼs turn can react upon them and discuss about it. The hope is that the experts come to new insights and ideas and publish their new findings in articles and newspapers. Lobbyʼs: Start a lobby with a solution written down in the form of a letter and post this in the website. Co-write with other people their letters in order to improve them, as they will do so in return as well. Find at least 50 people to join and support the letter and the case will be offered to the governmentʼs office; public matters. After they read the letter they will reply with a answer to the initiators, being the crowd in this instance. Results test #1: Prior to the introduction of the Genome Builder cards only two persons wanted to change a function on the website. This lack of change might be because they are not that familiar with the website, as a regular user is and therefore did not see any fitting change. Or they simply submit to a well aesthetically designed website as being well developed. Nevertheless the contrast is significant when these results are compared with the alterations people made with the help of the Genome Builder cards. As when testing with probes, the probes are often not aesthetic and focussed on the functionality of the system only. The cards make it possible for every aesthetic wisdom of the crowd system to be analyzed as if with a probe. Even through play the test subjects discovered that other options are possible for the functionality of the website, and this got them going 63 I T E R AT I O N I I into changing more. The details of the quantity and quality of the changes is discussed in the next paragraph. Additions Changed What? 18% | 100% How? 26% | 69% 29% | 60% Who? 27% | 65% 64 Why? Fig.3.3: User test results The image above shows the changes that were made with the genome cards. Most of the changes are “Who?” (29%) and “Why?” (27%) based. From these “Who?” and “Why?” questions, relatively 60% and 65% are new additions to the website. User test #2: The second user test concerned the Genome card game played by two of my friends and me. The simple probe like cards are included, along with the initial version of the game. The main mission for this test is to find out whether or not people can work with the genome cards concept within other platforms like games. Considering the cards are rooted in the decision making, they should function within any system where decisions have to be made. I T E R AT I O N I I The first version of the game is shown below in figure 3.4. The game exists out of islands with 6 edges. Every edge is a potential connection for another resource. The resources; grain, wood, bronze, oil, water, rice, gold, metal and wool are distributed over the entire playing field by shuffling them and randomly laying them down. The central bank, glaciers, rainforest and united nations are special cards for which the players can make rules by using the genome cards. For each element attached to a village / city, the players get a resource card (see figure 3.4 lower left corner for an example) every turn. 65 Fig.3.4: Genome Game (take I) Each player starts with one village and the surrounding resources. Villages can evolve into great cities in four steps. Each step costs resources predefined by the players with the genome cards. For soldiers / scouts the same decision has to be made ahead of the game. The soldier / scout its role is to explore new terrain, after I T E R AT I O N I I which the islands can be turned facing with the image upwards. These newly discovered resources are then distributed only once to the player who sent the scout. Only a village can give the players a permanent income from this new source. The soldier role is for defense or attack of a city / resource. This way players can maintain the growth of other players, of stimulate their own. No territory is really owned by any player, only defended. The small buttons in red and green with the numbers inside them resemble the balance between economy and ecology. As for example in the picture the numbers 6 & 7 are displayed. This means that this player has six city points (red) and 7 ecology points (green). 66 Each resource is valued with one point, destroying one costs the player a ecology point. The villages can evolve four times, and are therefore worth four points at their maximum evolution. The player with the largest number of resources linked to his or her cities get three pint bonus. As the player with the largest cities gets one extra bonus point. This can help players achieve the winning number of points faster, as they have decided the necessary number of points to win, before the game started. Results test #2: Before the test started their was no prior set up of how the islands are supposed to be placed before playing, aside for every island connected to the first city. The players came up with this triangular shaped solution with only the initial city platform and balance island exposed. After this first step, the players made rules for as many situations as they could imagine being necessary. No political decision were made considering the players probably did not know what to expect. Instead they determined what the costs were of each decision in the game as evolving a city and building a soldier / scout. Fig.3.5: Genome Game user test placement I T E R AT I O N I I As the game progressed, the table became a mess with cards as can be seen in the image below. Genome cards rules, resource cards in the bank, and resource cards of the players made the gameplay difficult. Also because the players continuously had to look at the cards at the far end of the table to see what rule their action has to deal with. 67 Fig.3.6: Genome Game user test During the game there were two political decisions made by the players in consensus as it shows in figure 3.7. The first decision was to move the army of the “United Nations”. As the players decided that with the island of the United Nations the player that controls this island gets three free armies to its disposal. The armies can be transported all three at the same time, as with normal soldiers the resources have to be paid for each soldier individually. The second rules was for controlling growth of an individual players as he builds to many cities to fast, and with a lack of environmental conscience. Therefore the person who has build four city points, has I T E R AT I O N I I Fig.3.7: Genome Game user test 68 to pay three resource cards to the bank each turn. This limits the potential of that player to grow as he did before and so balance the changes among the players. The second rules was for controlling growth of an individual players as he builds to many cities to fast, and with a lack of environmental conscience. Therefore the person who has build four city points, has to pay three resource cards to the bank each turn. This limits the potential of that player to grow as he did before and so balance the changes among the players. Both decisions were made via consensus, and caused the end result of two players finishing close in points. Nearly the whole card map was exposed and played on by the players. 3.6 Scenario modeling (take II) The two concepts from iteration are now developed into two more proven concepts. The first being the genome cards, the second is the genome game that includes the genome cards enabling the players I T E R AT I O N I I to make the rules. The text below described the scenario modeling for both concepts. Scenario IV: Opens with the question; ~ What will be the future properties of Genome Builder as a card set? ~ Inhibitors Crowd issues: Acceptance: - Can every user access these cards? (price) - Are the cards easy to learn how to work with? - Who decides over the final functionality when the cards are drawn? Usability: - Are there to many cards for the user to choose from? - Are the messages on the cards clear to the user - What are the cards durability? - Are there enough cards in the deck? - How can an user submit a new card? Security: - Can an initiator maintain focus on the mission of its project? Legal: - What are the rights of new submissions for new card topics? Drivers Crowd issues: Acceptance: - The cards have a simple layout and are aesthetic Usability: - The cards have a clear and simple message - The method opens up the user to the functionality - The cards offer a roadmap for future undertakings 69 I T E R AT I O N I I - Easily altering a system by changing cards - Interactive and visual for a whole group to work with Security: - Create a groundwork for a project Legal: - Easily make variations on patented systems Acceptance Uncertainty Usability Security Legal 70 Importance Fig.3.8: Importance & uncertainty of scenario IV Acceptance pro Bold Usability against Usability pro Fear Acceptance against Fig.3.9: Two main scopes of scenario IV I T E R AT I O N I I Bold: A company with the eyes on the future decides to start a new wisdom of the crowd website. To plan the functionality of this system, they use the Genome Builder cards to map the whole system. As they do they determine who has the control over what function string. This way the company is in control, but gives the crowd the freedom they want considering the trend of transparency and freedom of websites that is currently growing on the internet. Fear: This initiator of a wisdom of the crowd website also has his eye on the future but is afraid to give the crowd to much control. They do wish to benefit from the strength of the crowd as they can deliver in great numbers, but fear the quality of the crowd as it comes to key systems like managing a website. Scenario V: Opens with the question; ~ What will be the future properties of Genome Game? ~ Inhibitors Crowd issues: Acceptance: - Is the game still fun? - Are the users smart enough to make the rules of the game? - Is the game expensive? - How many players can play together? Usability: - What if the players cant reach consensus about a new rule? - Which rules are permanent? - Which rules can be changed? - How long will the game take to play? - Is the game familiar enough in the basic rules to be played by the masses? - Is the playing field as a bard game stable enough for real play? Security: - Are player vulnerable to get singled out? 71 I T E R AT I O N I I Drivers Crowd issues: Acceptance: - The basic game resembles other popular games - The game is less dependent on chance - The game has more depth then most other board games - Each game is different which can create more excitement - The game can be expended with other islands with unique functions and abilities Usability: - The players can define their own parameters Security: - Players can limit a game from being won easily by an individual by making rules 72 Acceptance Uncertainty Usability Security Legal Importance Fig.3.10: Importance & uncertainty of scenario V From the graph above, two subjects are selected that reach the furthest in the upper right corner, as that illustrates a great importance and a great uncertainty. These two subject are divided into the pros & cons as is seen below. The names in the quadrant suggest the scope the scenario should focus upon. As in this case it I T E R AT I O N I I will focus on the pros of acceptance and usability, and the cons of acceptance alongside the pro of usability. Acceptance pro Game Proʼs Usability against Usability pro New gamers Acceptance against Fig.3.11: Two main scopes of scenario V Game Professionals: This group is well known with both online and boardgames. They like to take on the risk of a game where the rules can change and see this as a challenge. These experienced players like to make the game as complex as they can handle and aim make this game last for hours. New gamers: Newbies as they are called by the more experienced gamers might resist to a game without every rule being preset. Unless one of the more experience players takes control, these layers will not pick up the game. 3.6 Expert evaluation ~ Bas Reus, Social Tech Manager at Favela Fabric ~ Test #1 expert evaluation: Mister Reus acknowledged most of the adjustments made by the Genome cards as valid, and added that the website has not been updated since it was finished a couple years ago. The website was built on demand from the government and therefore was a single investment for both parties. If the site would get updated, the changes the crowd recommended would have been 73 I T E R AT I O N I I included as test done by him and his team came up with the same answers. Below here is a graph that shows the acknowledgments of Mister Reus on the changed made by the crowd. Changed total (- added) 18% Appreciated change Additions Appriciated additions 50% 18% 60% Fig.3.12: Change & appreciation results from user test Mister Reus further added that the genome cards could be used to serve as a tool for brainstorming when a new project is launched. He therefore also asked me for a deck of cards for him to use when this project is finished. ~ Mister Wieleman, former director of ABN Amro Netherands ~ 74 Mister Wieleman from ABN showed his fear for letting the crowd control a wisdom of the crowd system. He came with the example of an estimate by the crowd which goes as follows; mister Wieleman asked a group of people to estimate the contents of a bag with sweets. They all did, but where far off from the actual number of sweets inside the bag. This example shows parallels with the example used earlier in this report when the weight of an animal was estimated by the crowd. Nevertheless the estimate of the crowd in this example was compared with the estimate of experts. In this case the crowd did better then the experts. It would be interesting when experts would have made an estimate just like the crowd in mister Wielemanʼs test. Following by a comparison between the crowd - the experts and the factual contents of the bag of sweets. When this difference was offered to mister Wieleman, a better understanding of the genome cards came to light. Especially the designer active within the design team at ABN could see the I T E R AT I O N I I potential of using the cards to give control away, in a controlled environment of the genome cards. Finally some of the users suggested that these cards lacked the functionality of letting the crowd change the new string they have made, and the matter in which this is done. Test #2 expert evaluation: Tho two players of the genome game both have extensive knowledge of both online and boardgames. Therefore they can be considered as experts, and also because they are users in a user focussed research. The game should have more rules written down at the start of the game. Trading, moving a soldier and building a city should already be decided. This would make it more realistic and less of an hassle when players start the game. The rules that are made during the game, or rules that are changed during the game should be on a fixed point, for example at the start of each round. This makes it possible for all players to prepare for the upcoming rules, and makes singling out a player more difficult. The game should have less resources as it has now. Besides the practicality of this during play, it also better fits the simplified representation of the real world. There should be more organizations included like the united nations and the international bank to give the game more diversity and unsuspected plot twists. Finally the players offered an idea that is based on the cultural differences of people. By giving each player a different cultural background, variations in resources paid for evolutions of cities etc. could be made. 3.8 Reflection As the Genome cards at first started out as a probe, it soon became a concept as feedback from the users and experts were very positive about the possibilities it offers. Therefore the term concept-probe 75 I T E R AT I O N I I came to be. Narrowing down the ideas into fewer concepts actually gave rise to a new concept thanks to the iterative design process. The strength of the Genome cards strongly influenced the progress of the rest of the project as the awareness of its potential grew. The Genome cards easily allow user and initiators to analyze a wisdom of the crowd system, and also allow them to control a system. Creating a game along with the cards turned out to be more difficult then expected as it became chaotic and hard to play because of all the cards and loose ends. This opened up a great respect for gameconstruction as it is often taken for granted how fun and easy a game is to play. 76 77 E N D O F I T E R AT I O N I I I T E R AT I O N I I I 78 “Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide.” (Napoleon Bonaparte) Photo by Lois Reinert I T E R AT I O N I I I 4.Iteration III Iteration III This third and final iteration will include the last extrapolations made from research done in the past iterations. Findings and conclusion have forced the concepts and ideas to evolve into a set of three concepts. Each one of them is explained and illustrated in the following chapter. Furthermore the initial research question with which the first iteration started are reviewed again in comparison with the final concepts. This will show the progress the concepts have made and the futuristic abilities they possess. 79 I T E R AT I O N I I I 4.1 Methodology By using the feedback, the final proposition can be drawn. An expert evaluation and a reflection will conclude this design research project. Fig.4.1: Iteration three (Analysis, Conceptualization, Realization & Evaluation) 80 4.2 Feedback analysis The genome cards function as an eye opener for users in being able to change the functionality of a website. Using the cards help them to get despatched from the aesthetic website and look solely on the functionality. Considering this card probe was made with cards, it sometimes was a hassle for people to find the right cards they were looking for. Nevertheless a online version could and should function better as information can be organized better this way. The Genome cards have gone from probe to concept as two experts already showed interest in using this method for brainstorming ahead of starting a wisdom of the crowd system. Along with the game this project then counts three concepts. Users suggested that the cards should have a functionality that shows how the strings can be changed by the crowd. This iteration I T E R AT I O N I I I will deal with this problem considering this is a viable argument as the concept relies on the crowd having control over the functionality. The Genome game should be drastically simplified if it should be fun to play. There was to much happening on the table outside the game and therefore some elements have to go. Rules should be added at fixed points within the game, as the players like to prepare for a new decision string being added. Variations and plot twists can be stimulated with more special cards like the UN and international bank. The players will not play for a different culture, because this makes the game more complex again, as it is already on the edge of an easy to play game due to all the factors build in. Genome Builder back-end concept take #2: This concept was formerly known as the Genome Builder. This has been changed due to the recognition in the name as website nowadays already have a back-end where user can modify the layout of a website. Nevertheless this is only accessible for a select community, and does not include the crowd. It has been proven through the probes in the last iteration that the Genome cards can work with the crowd, the cards can be digitalized for even a larger mass. With digitalizing the cards it means that the cards are transcribed to the web. As the options and functionality of a website can be modified by the crowd by using the website back-end that includes the Genome cards functions as they are presented in this iteration and in appendix V. 4.3 Final proposition Genome Cards: This card deck contains two types of cards. The first is the type with the main questions; Who?, What?, Why? and How?. The user can select out of many variations in answers for these questions, and thus make a functional roadmap of the wisdom of the crowd system that gets analyzed or build. How the user can do this is described on a card delivered with this deck. It explains in 81 I T E R AT I O N I I I steps how function- strings as one of them is seen on the right here are made. The second type are the smaller cards that say who can control this functionstring. This extra option is especially important for those organizations that fear giving control away to the crowd, as here they can determine how much control they are willing to give away and in what manner. 82 Genome Game: Most games have a predetermined set of rules, and players often expect this to be the case. However, inspired by the trend of the crowd gaining control, this game originates as a test scenario where it is researched whether it is possible to apply the genome cards to another system then a wisdom of the crowd service as is commonly know on websites. The box of the game contains the genome card deck, the game islands, resource cards and pawns for each player. The islands that make up the playing field are shown in the picture below. The islands can be placed by the following patterns as this is also described in the rules of the game delivered with the box. Fig.4.2: Genome Cards I T E R AT I O N I I I 83 Fig.4.3: Genome Game Fig.4.4a: Genome Game configurations I T E R AT I O N I I I Fig.4.4b: Genome Game configurations 84 The islands each have a different meaning. Nevertheless there is a bipartition; there are resource cards and special cards. The special cards consist out of cities, war islands, no build islands and special ability islands. All the islands are described below as the resource islands are explained first. Fig.4.5: Genome Game resources When a city is connected to an island as is seen above, the players can get the corresponding resource card for it with every turn. Each card shows a -1 that means that the player has to take one point of its total when he or she decides to build a city on this fertile ground, or when the player is acting out war over this island. Oil has a -2 sign because it is a precious resource. For each resource island connected to a city, the player receives a point. I T E R AT I O N I I I Fig.4.6: Genome Game Resource cards Above the resource cards are shown as the player receives them from the bank. These can be exchanged with the bank to build cities, move a pawn, build a resource island and start a war. The cost of these investments are shown on the islands as can be seen in the pictures below. 85 Fig.4.7 Genome Game city islands The first city gives the player the opportunity to select 3 resource cards every turn. These have to be the kind that is connected to the playerʼs island. When he or she pays for the evolution that is marked on the island, the income of goods gets higher. From level three on the player also receives an extra defense dice. This matters when the players are at war using the war island. The first city gives the owner one city point, and with each evolution a point is added up to the maximum of four. The war island costs are relatively high because diplomacy is wanted instead of war. When a player does decide to bring war, he pays the resources necessary and that allows him to throw three times with three dices. The winner is decided with the best out of three throws, summing up the total eyes on the dices with every throw and scoring them to the opponent. The defensing party get to defend with two dices, unless he has evolved the city that Fig.4.8: War island I T E R AT I O N I I I is attacked beyond level two. In that case this player can defend with three dices. The war island will stay on the board until the player whom paid for the island is on turn again in the next round. This offers the player that is attacked the opportunity to attack the players that attacked him. War islands can be placed anywhere on the board at any time within the turn of a player. War scorches the earth, and therefore ruins the resource beneath it. In the game this means that after the war is over, a no build island has to be placed. On this island there can only be more war, until a player pays for a new resource as is described on the island. Fig.4.9: No Build island 86 For both the rainforest and the glacier islands it means that when a players destroys them, the player gets two penalty points. When a city is next to a rainforest, this player can collect a resource of his or her choice from the bank. Fig.4.10: Rainforest & Glaciers The glacier gives the player an islands extra defend dice at all times for all cities. All special islands and resource islands can be shared by the players. This gives an extra twist in the game as competition is bound with the special cards. Fig.4.11 Special islands The islands above are the most special islands in the game. The United Nations island allows the players connected to it to exchange a resource card out of his deck with the bank with every turn. The central bank island allows a player to get one resource card of I T E R AT I O N I I I choice from each player at the table every turn. For both the United Nations island, as for the central bank island it takes three winning strikes with three war islands to destroy the special island. However, the winning strikes do not have to be coming from just one player, as each player can attack the island and try to stop the enemy. The Greenpeace island however cannot be destroyed because the compassion of Greenpeace cant be eliminated. This island gives the players the ability to protest against an action of an enemy at any time of the game. For example when a player wants to evolve a city, a player connected to the Greenpeace island can prevent this from happening. This is only allowed for one turn, and can be countered when the other player is connected to the Greenpeace island as well. Special cards are not recognized as victory point except for the glaciers and rainforest which give the player two extra points for each island. Players can move the pawn over the islands by paying one oil and a wool resource. This can be done an unlimited number of times during each turn. With this pawn new cities can be created as the resources connected to the pawn are open for building upon by the player. A pawn can not be attacked or lost at any time. It is possible for two or more pawns to be positioned on the same island, and even on a city. Fig.4.12 Pawn The genome cards are played and added at every start of a playing round, and will only take effect the round after allowing players to prepare for the potential damage that a decision can do. With small numbers as it is with a total number of players below six, all the players have to agree on the new ruling. From six players on however the genome cards will be taken to the next step. Voting for a new decision string is then an option because of the greater number, and the possibly of players to play together in teams. When a player cannot exchange a resource card with a fellow player, he or she can exchange four cards out of his or her deck with the bank for a resource of choice. This can be done an unlimited amount of times during a players turn. 87 I T E R AT I O N I I I As is dictated in the rules of the game sheet that comes with this game, players are forced to think of the balance between economy and ecology. Players can make rules for example that the balance between city points and nature point should be equal at least. If not so, the players that do not honor this get a penalty of some kind decided by the players. An online version of this game would allow even greater number then six as tables can be created more easily because more players are available. Genome back-end: Below here an example is shown of the Genome back-end with the website denationaledialoog.nl. The website looks as at always did but for one thing. 88 Fig.4.13 Genome Builder A logo of the Genome back-end is shown on the upper right corner. This allows the user to recognize the Genome back-end possibilities, and that this is implemented in this website. I T E R AT I O N I I I By clicking on the icon, the user is taken to the login page. This is a separate login from the website as the Genome backend is registered for one account, for all websites that account uses. This enables the system to test the behavior of users, and stimulate good behavior, or punish bad behavior. Think of this as an user is trying to manipulate a certain rule only to his or her favor, then this is unwanted behavior for the crowd, and so is seen as abuse of the system. Fig.4.14 Genome Builder logo The picture below shows the login screen where the user fills in a user name and password. This will then take him to the actual Genome back-end. New user can register here by clicking on the link. 89 Fig.4.15 Genome Builder login I T E R AT I O N I I I 90 Fig.4.16 Genome Builder strings Ones logged in, the user sees the function strings of the website he or she visited earlier. Beside each main question a short description made by the initiator is shown. By clicking on more, more information will be shown when it is available. When the log out is hit, the questions appear whether the user wishes to log out, or to return to the original website. Clicking on the main questions permits the user to change choice formerly made by the initiator. Naturally an explanation of this gene is asked from the user. When the user submits his or her changes, it is compared with changes other people made in order to find duplicates. When the changes are duplicate, they will combined, and making the alterations will counts as a vote for the new string. When the changes are unique, the string is added to the list of solutions, through which the crowd can scroll through as is indicated by the arrows. I T E R AT I O N I I I The bars on the upper right show the progress of the stringʼs acceptance. It shows for example the number of people that already have voted for or against, and the number of people that still have to vote. The left corner and the top show options for displaying the strings as for example alphabetical or new releases etc. What further connects the user is the ability to talk about the strings by using a forum connected to every string. Everyone who is registered can post here. This allows initiators to explain why a certain change is bad and the other way around. On both figure 4.16 and 4.17 the main questions have different colored option on top of them. These options are the control functions of the string. Here the user can select who can change the string and how. 91 Fig.4.17 Genome Builder forum I T E R AT I O N I I I 4.4 Expert evaluation ~ Ben Schouten, Coach ~ Mister Schouten wondered who is going to make the changes suggested by the crowd? As he could imagine that some of the options need expert knowledge of for example programming to change. This indeed could be the case, but in that instance the initiator of the system could use the tool as a information gathering tool for their technical staff. A hierarchical solution, with the crowd involved. Further expert feedback will come during the final exhibition as the expert Bas Reus, client Maurits Kreijveld and coach Ben Schouten are invited to talk about the final concepts. 4.5 Application of the RQʼs 92 The research questions that were set report guided the process to a final research, all the questions posed in reexamined and filled in relative to the developed. up at the beginning of this concept. To conclude the the first chapter are now final concept that has been ~ What existing 'wisdom of the crowd' platforms exists that could potentially be used? ~ The more popular and booming platform for wisdom of the crowd networking takes place on the internet. As wisdom of the crowd systems require fast amounts of communication and thus information transaction, the internet has already proven as a reliable platform for this system and for other system that have similar requirements. The near future of wisdom of the crowd systems will continue to use the internet as a communication means, but as the Genome Builder concept shows in a different way. The trend of control by the crowd will continue to spread and grow in time, and therefore the systems will adapt to this demand. I T E R AT I O N I I I ~ How is/will decision making (be) practiced? ~ As the research has shown, there is no single best way to deal with decision making within a wisdom of the crowd system. This relates with the approach used in politics as we see numerous solution of democracy and even entirely different solutions as dictatorships. Considering this argument, future wisdom of the crowd system will as they do now, make use of several different decision making models. The difference will be the control over this model. Currently the initiator determines what decision making model is used. The concepts thought up in this reports at least shares this with the crowd, or lets the crowd in full control. Mutually as important is the choice of model for the wisdom of the crowd system and the continuity of it. As it has happened in the past that initiators change their roadmap of the system, thus making the users upset because they potentially do not like the changes. By using the Genome cards, a clear view on the working of the system is gained, and allows the initiator to suggest changes. Considering the system is undergoing continuous changes due to the crowds input, they should be less opposed to changes in general. This Later has not yet been researched but is an estimation. ~ What are the possibilities of going beyond the default webinterface? ~ Using the Genome cards makes it possible to analyze existing, or start new wisdom of the crowd systems. Therefore this option leaves the domain of the currently ruling online medium. The future might offer more possibilities as they are described in this report, nevertheless this report is focussed towards a concept of the near future where the internet will at first maintain the best position. ~ How actively involved will the participants have to be? ~ Considering the trend of increased control by the crowd, participants will have to be involved more and more. At the same time control is needed as the system has to stay functional. 93 I T E R AT I O N I I I The Genome back-end provides a solution for the website based wisdom of the crowd system. As it closely involves the users, and allows the initiator to set the amount of control. Furthermore the Genome back-end is a single program, applicable to many other websites, therefore offering a recognizable standard solution for user to control a website with. ~ What psychological and social effects contribute to decision making? ~ These effects are just as important as the way the system deals with it. And as so many different effects are known and expressed, a system that properly fits the participants should address all the effects. The power of the Genome concept is that people can add the functionality to a system when their psychological and / or socials needs are not met. Therefore the concept should adapt itself to the users, and grow along with the users. 94 ~ How is the decision process best organized? ~ Organization of such a system should be transparent and controlled openly. The Genome back-end and the Genome concept in a whole allows such control as the participants can change the decision making process along with the functionality of the system. Initiators can even assume a participants role and decide together with the users. Furthermore the different decision making models we now know for example in politics or business could find their way to the Genome back-end thanks to the users. This makes the system divers and broadly applicable, just as its target group. ~ Is the collective good of the crowd an intelligent good? ~ It has been shown through research that the crowd is indeed able to make changes that experts would do as well. Therefore it has been confirmed that it is not the crowd that is stupid or smart or faulty, it depends on the decision model what outcome a wisdom of the crowd system has. CONCLUSION 5.Conclusion & Recommendations Decision making is vital in a wisdom of the crowd system, as the fast communication stream has to be managed properly. The difficulty in this lies in the diversity of intellect and value of the input given by the crowd. As research furthered during this design research project, the Genome concept nurtured three concepts that incorporate the basic structure. All these three concepts work on the trend to give the crowd more control, which was decided after researching current solutions of wisdom of the crowd systems. The genome concept works with small crowds from three persons up to more as it was tested with the Genome Game. A larger number as crowd could bring other points of interest to light but were not tested in this report. 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(company name) Subject? (what is crowdsourced) Where? (country) 99designs Graphic Design Australia AddictLab Advertising, General Article One Partners U.S. Patent Reform / Prior Art Research ArtistShare Battle of concepts Blellow Music Advertising creative General Belgium What? (crowd sourcing strategy) Who? (crowd sourcing strategy) How? (what gene is represented?) Why? (what are the values of the participants?) Create New ideas Crowd Collection Price money Decide What is the best idea Company Hierarchy Get lots of ideas and money return if no good Create New ideas Crowd Collection Publish Decide What is the best idea CS-Company Hierarchy Ongoing income of ideas Create Deliver product Crowd Price money Get the price money, get 5% of annual profit and get researcher points for status Decide Best product Client Consensus Get in depth research on lower cost Share Connections CS-Company Collection Get % profit Create Music Collection Affection Share Music Social network Get more exposure and albums sales Decide Listen/follow Crowd Social network Get more information from an artist Share Problem Company Collection Ideas Create Concepts Section of the crowd Collection Price money Share Problems/ concepts CS-Company Social network Money Share Knowledge Crowd Social network Affection Share Knowledge CS-Company Social network Money Create Designs Crowd Collection Affection/money Decide Best designs CS-Company Hierarchy Money Share Designs/ concepts Crowd Collection Money Decide Buy concept Companies Hierarchy Affection/money Crowd Collection Affection Company Manufacture Money Crowd Collection Affection Crowd Collection Affection Company Manufacture Money CS-Company Collection Money USA USA USA USA Bon bon kaku Graphic design Finland BootB Advertising, creative industries Russia/ USA Create Brewtopia Brewery Australia Decide Brownbook Business/ general Cafe Press Accessories, Clothes, Shopping Cambrian House General Section of the crowd Section of the crowd UK Share Create USA Decide Canada Custom designs Custom designs Business directory Custom designs Custom designs Share Community Create Concepts ed. Crowd Collection Affection/money Decide Best concepts Company ed. Hierarchy Money 105 Company! Continuous link! crowd NEW 8. Another individual is working on programming a new decision model to upload to the website using genome builder website 7. The crowd votes for the new decision model Possible link! Link outside model Crowd Value Chain Model company company The value chain model below displays the crowd in a central position. All stakeholders deal with each other through the website. The companies are just as free to adjust the websiteʼs genome as the crowd is. Money (large)! 6. The crowd votes on his proposition 10462 VOTES Money (small) ! Product 3. He learns that the crowd can only choose top 10 Experience! 2. User uploads a picture to take part in a contest Exposure 5. … he can select and offer a new decision approach Service! 4. As the website uses genome builder... 1. Individual in crowd uses website A User! The crowd determines the functionality of the “wisdom of the crowds” website Genome Builder 2.0 Company! 7. … a new open and crowd sourced internet Internet NR.2 4. … and an internet connection for sharing e 1. Individual in crowd uses mobile phone User! Service! Experience! Money (small) 6. As all the mobiles devices work together as ... 3. New mobile phones have much data on them... Product 8. Mobile devices their contents will look like a normal webpage on internet NR. 2 5. As the internet connection is not in use, it is a server 2. As do many others with him within the crowd Exposure Continuous link! Possible link! Link outside model Crowd Internet NR.2 Value Chain Model The flow of values is very simple in this model, as user create a new internet platform for people to surf on and the crowd acts as a host server. Money (large)! Creating a second internet and a third, a fourth, a fifth... Crowd Internet Company! Service! Exposure Experience! + Money (small) + = 4. … and start a walk-in hospital, where everybody can visit and get good medical care from professionals 2. Until a group within the crowd comes together... Product 5. As the medical staff is part of a larger crowd, updates in organs and bones etc. are continuously shared on the internet. finger bone 2.0 3. … with the new 3DBioprinter... 1. When a person get injured, or is in need of small surgery, he or she used to go the hospital User! Continuous link! Possible link! Link outside model Crowd crowd Internet NR.2 company Value Chain Model Group within the crowd As the crowd is central, companies and groups within the crowd communicate with each other by using the internet. Products are in this case body parts or body affiliated products. The service are the updates that come from the crowd and companies. Money (large)! Medical care by your peers with the use of 3D-Bioprinters Crowdʼed Hospital Company! Service! Experience! TNTCC 2. Until another farmer explains him TNTCC Exposure !!! Money (small) 3. Surprised to hear he can start a company online Product 5. The business has to invest as to comply with the amount of Eco-currency they have to invest Eco-Currency 6. The bigger the company, the higher the investment 4. The website brings the farmer and the business representative into contact to form a deal about preserving the farmers land, and still keep it profitable. TNTCC mediates in this 1. A farmer wants to cut down trees for cultivation User! Continuous link! Possible link! Link outside model Crowd crowd Internet NR.2 company Value Chain Model farmer companies A farmer is contacted by the crowd or companies that function within the crowd about setting up a new company. This company will address the way the land of the farmer is used. The farmer can make financial deals with the investors, as the companies are obligated to invest in this project by the government. Money (large)! The crowd exists out of small companies working (in)dependently for the same purpose TNT Crowd Company Strength Genome Builder Crowded Hospital Crowd Internet TNT Crowd Company Causality Crowd Reality Games 110 Weakness Opportunity - Crowd can actively upload modules of decision - Allow the crowd to control - Initiators have to give away protocols the website as it runs a large part of being in - Make use of the crowd - Makes use of a trend control intellect in exchange of currently growing values (not necessary money) - Waiting lists can be - Is reliable on future - Groups within the crowd diminished developments can stat a hospital - Greater expansion as the - An alternative to the - Technology could not be set up is easier then the common internet ready yet standard internet lines - Communication between fractions is difficult - Many attempts on the concerning the number of - Loads of opportunities to same target deliver higher fractions start a company probability on success - Enforcing behavior might stimulate resistance to the concept - Give a more in depth - A negative status could - Enforcing people to insight in the individualʼs become a driver for people behave better on the behavior within the crowd to misbehave internet - Less in need of physical employees - Offer more balanced solutions to problems - Are all stakeholder and - Potential to make money normally tackled by one possibilities incorporated in instead of spending money individual or a small the game? group - Crowd performs without the direct need of financial gain of the crowd Threats - The crowd could make a mistake in choosing decision modules - Internet could be unstable - People might boycott the concept - People might not have the necessary resources to join the system - People might not want this level of intimacy because of fear for a bad reputation - Are there enough people participating - Are there enough people that keep on playing the game over a long period What? Who? Why? How? Crowd What? Who? Why? How? Organization What? Who? Why? How? Crowd Information Affection Social Forum Wisdom of the crowd Network What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? x 19: affection / exposure What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Forum What? Who? Why? How? Exposure What? Who? Why? How? Ideas New topics Opinion x 19: create by the crowd Create Create Share What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? 111 Voting x 4: hard voting, voting with background What? Who? Why? How? Affection What? Who? Why? How? x 4: initiator In!vidual What? Who? Why? How? Quality of an opinion Decide What? Who? Why? How? Appendix IV Ideas What? Who? Why? How? Organization New topics / plans What? Who? Why? How? Crowd What? Who? Why? How? Affection What? Who? Why? How? Forum Plans / ideas What? Who? Why? How? Crowd What? Who? Why? How? Affection What? Who? Why? How? Forum network Social What? Who? Why? How? Exposure What? Who? Why? How? Share Create Share What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? 112 Forum What? Who? Why? How? Affection What? Who? Why? How? Crowd What? Who? Why? How? Plans with open topic line x 16 Create What? Who? Why? How? Plans with open subject line Forum What? Who? Why? How? Affection What? Who? Why? How? Crowd What? Who? Why? How? x7 Create What? Who? Why? How? Appendix IV In"vidual In"vidual Section of ! What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? production +1 / -1 Voting Affection Affection Gr$p What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? crowd What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Quality of opinion What? Who? Why? How? Plans Decide Realize x 12 What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? 113 Crowd Initiator Section of ! What? Who? Why? How? Affection What? Who? Why? How? Forum What? Who? Why? How? Affection What? Who? Why? How? Forum Experts / opinion makers crowd What? Who? Why? How? Opinion Vision What? Who? Why? How? Share Share What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Appendix IV In!vidual Initiator Section of ! What? Who? Why? How? Forum Affection What? Who? Why? How? Forum Affection What? Who? Why? How? Publ#h Newspapers etc. Affection What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Crowd Appendix IV For or against Total 50 votes for gets reply Voting x 12: Other number What? Who? Why? How? Affection What? Who? Why? How? In!vidual What? Who? Why? How? Support an opinion More extensive letter What? Who? Why? How? Su#o$ What? Who? Why? How? Create What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Experts / opinion makers crowd What? Who? Why? How? Lobby by mailing a letter Insights into articles What? Who? Why? How? Create Realize What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? 114 What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Organization What? Who? Why? How? Section of ! What? Who? Why? How? In#vidual What? Who? Why? How? Forum Reaction on the letter Status Affection dec$ion What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Publieke zaak Support or add to the letter, set during posting Opinion crowd Decide Create In#vidual What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? 115 Blog What? Who? Why? How? Exposure What? Who? Why? How? WOC website Organization Section of ! crowd What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Two types of lobby Create What? Who? Why? How? Appendix IV • • • • • who has the control over of the card Look at the back of this card the card here of the implementation of Write down a description string-questions The title / subject this card-string and how! The four main ( What? Who? Why? How? Rules of the game #1 Think of a function you wish to change... Choose the corresponding “What?” card that best fits the function of what you would like to change Then choose “Who?” is going to fulfill this new function What is the motivation of this person or group to participate? Write that down on the “Who?” card. Then choose “How” this should be realized Decide Create Connection triangle; choose What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? ) Consume What? Who? Why? How? Compute What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V Realize What? Who? Why? How? Share What? Who? Why? How? Realize a concept in practice Share ideas / concepts / resources, you name it! Appendix V Use computer power to solve a problem Consume a good or service A group or small selection from the crowd Decide over a subject, concept, idea, law etc. Regular cards have a along with a corresponding description of the subject, image shown here... - TAKE CONTROL & HAVE FUN! - necessary A dot with a question mark means that this card is placing the smaller control-cards on top of each card-string (see the triangle) No triangle = no further cards Determine who & how the cardstrings can be changed by Rules of the game #2 Creating an idea / concept / scenario, or any other matter • • dependent on a card with the same color the dot has. Place this extra card on the side of the initial card with the dot What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V Organization Company What? Who? Why? How? Players Initiator What? Who? Why? How? Stakeholders crowd Section of ! ? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V In"vidual What? Who? Why? How? Crowd What? Who? Why? How? Select the crowd as your target group One individual within a business or the crowd Appendix V An institution or a non-profit organization A group or small selection from the crowd A company or business All the players of a game are stakeholders Non-profit or profitable stakeholder(s), as long as they are the initiator A stakeholder is an individual or group that contributes to the whole What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? ? ? Appendix V What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V What? Who? Why? How? Affection What? Who? Why? How? Respect What? Who? Why? How? P!ce money What? Who? Why? How? Exposure Trend Money Appendix V What? Who? Why? How? Status What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Return favor What? Who? Why? How? Status relative to peers or stakeholders can be a strong motivational factor Trends can create affiliation and a wide spread of the cause Appendix V Offering a return favor could be as great, or even greater then the favor initially offered With money, work based on hours can be translated to independent value Affection can be a strong motivator when a participant affiliates with the cause Respect is closely related to affiliation, the difference being that respect can be indifferent Price money is unaffected by personal wishes and therefore widely applicable For example; the initiator could be motivated by exposure of its brand What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? GENOME BUILDER iChilles.com - TAKE CONTROL & HAVE FUN! - Information Fee Fine What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V What? Who? Why? How? Knowled! What? Who? Why? How? Knowledge is a good that can enrich the individual or group Appendix V Information can be textual, conceptual and even idea based Pay a fee for a concept / service / idea etc. For example; a fine could be initiated by the crowd to people who behave inadequate What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V What? Who? Why? How? Collaboration What? Who? Why? How? Provide Averaging Consensus Appendix V What? Who? Why? How? Voting What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Gr#p dec$ion ? ? Contest What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Collection What? Who? Why? How? For example; vote for the best concept / idea etc. For example; average the results coming from a voting round Appendix V Decide about the focus / direction etc. with a team Come to an agreement within a group, with the groupʼs effort Compete with other stakeholders for having the best idea / concept etc. Work together with stakeholder as for example; businesses / institutes / groups etc. An individual within a larger whole creates a concept / idea /scenario etc. Provide ideas / concepts / scenarios / information etc. What? Who? Why? How? Forum What? Who? Why? How? Crowd computing What? Who? Why? How? Market What? Who? Why? How? Production Computing What? Who? Why? How? dec"ion In!vidual What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V Social network What? Who? Why? How? Pre!ction markets What? Who? Why? How? Lets a group make estimations on the probability of events For example; using a forum with members to create a community Appendix V For example; a stakeholderʼs choice to switch on his computer and participate online Using an individualʼs computer to compute a problem / concept etc. Use a forum to enable participants to upload files and information Using a groupʼs resources of computing power to compute a concept etc. For example; a system like eBay where products can be bought and sold by participants Individually produce a practical solution for a concept / idea etc. What? Who? Why? How? Blog What? Who? Why? How? Publ!h What? Who? Why? How? Manufacture What? Who? Why? How? E-Mail Passive dec!ion What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V What? Who? Why? How? Gr$p production ? ? Poll What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Produce a practical solution for a concept / idea etc. With a group Appendix V For example; allowing a stakeholder to gather and analyze data from participants without their direct knowledge Create a poll where participants can vote for their preference Publish in papers / magazines / tabloids etc. Share concepts / ideas etc. On a blog Produce a practical solution with professional stakeholders like businesses etc. For example; use e-mail as a trafficking agent to communicate What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V What? Who? Why? How? What? Who? Why? How? Appendix V VOTING (end date) SECTION OF THE CROWD VOTING (end date) ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. CONSENSUS PLAYERS CONSENSUS ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. INITIATOR CROWD CROWD Appendix V ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. VOTING (number of votes) CONSENSUS CROWD ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. ….…….……….……….……….. Appendix V