Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
Professor Shogan
BA 200Q, Fall 1999
BA 200Q
QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Course Overview:
BA 200Q introduces first-year MBA students to quantitative concepts, techniques, and software with which all
successful managers should be familiar. The course has three major topics: optimization, simulation, and project
management. An important part of the course is learning the basic features of three software "tools": Microsoft Excel’s
built-in Solver for performing optimization, Crystal Ball (an add-in to Excel) for performing certain types of simulation, and
Microsoft Project for managing projects. This course has a managerial orientation and does NOT rely on complex
mathematics.
Textbook:
Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis (Second Edition),
authored by Cliff T. Ragsdale
and published by South-Western College Publishing in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Day(s)/Time/Room for Lectures/Discussions:
COHORT
3 (Oski)
4 (Axe)
Lecture
Discussion
Lecture
Discussion
DAY(S)
TuTh
M
TuTh
M
TIME
2:00 - 3:30 PM
10:00 - 11:00 AM
3:30 - 5:00 PM
9:00 - 10:00 AM
Instructor: Andy Shogan
E-mail:
andy
or
shogan
Office:
S522J
Office Hours:
(in Dean’s Suite on
Phones:
510-642-5371 (campus)
925-934-7473 (home)
510-643-9428 (fax)
TuTh, 8:00 - 10:00 AM
Th,
12:00 - 2:00 PM
ROOM
C210
C220
C210
C220
Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
Level 5 of Student
Services Wing)
Professor Shogan
BA 200Q, Fall 1999
(and by appointment)
Graduate Student Instructor (GSI):
GSI
Elizabeth Joy
E-MAIL
joy
Yoni Kish
kish
OFFICE HOURS
In F308 on W, 1 - 2 PM
& F, 12 - 1 PM
In F308 on Tu, 1 – 2 PM
& W, 12 – 1 PM
Components of Final Grade: The four components of your final grade are discussed below:
•
•
Personal Problem Sets. As specified later in this syllabus, there are five Personal Problem Sets. “Personal” means
that each student must turn in his/her own solutions (not a duplicated copy of solutions written up by a group of
students). However, if you feel you need help when solving a problem, you may consult with other students, with the
GSIs, or with me. The due dates for the Personal Problem Sets are specified on pages 4, 5, and 6. To submit a
Personal Problem Set, either hand it to the GSI at the Discussion Session or place it in the GSI’s mailbox no later than
2:00 PM on the due date. Before submitting a Personal Problem Set, it is strongly recommended that you make a
copy to retain until your original is returned.
Team Assignments. As described in the table below, there are two Team Assignments. In completing each Team
Assignment, please work in the same team as for BA 200S. To submit a Team Assignment, either hand it to me or
place it in my mailbox no later than the due date/time in the table below. Before submitting a Team Assignment, it is
strongly recommended that you make a copy to retain until your original is returned.
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Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
Professor Shogan
BA 200Q, Fall 1999
TEAM ASSIGNMENT
#1
#2
DUE
Friday,
November 19,
3:00 PM
Friday,
December 3,
3:00 PM
TOPIC
Optimization
and
Excel’s Solver
Simulation
and
Crystal Ball
•
Student Participation. No explicit percentage of the final grade is assigned to student participation. However, I
reserve the right to raise a student’s grade one level (e.g., from B+ to A-) for exceptional participation, including inclass participation that clearly demonstrates preparation for class and including visits to office hours to discuss both
fundamental and advanced aspects of the course. Furthermore, I reserve the right to lower a student’s grade one
level (e.g., from B+ to B) for consistently being absent from or late to class without advance notification to me.
•
Final Exam. There will be a “take-home” final exam available for in-person pick-up or electronic downloading on
Wednesday, December 8, 8:00 AM
The final exam must be turned in no later than
Wednesday, December 8, 8:00 PM.
While working on the exam, you may work at home or on campus, and you may use any resource except another
person.
3
Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
Professor Shogan
BA 200Q, Fall 1999
Grading Summary:
GRADING COMPONENT
Personal Problem Set #1:
Personal Problem Set #2:
Personal Problem Set #3:
Personal Problem Set #4:
Personal Problem Set #5
Team Assignment #1:
Team Assignment #2:
Final Exam:
PERCENTAGE OF
FINAL GRADE
2%
3%
2%
2%
1%
20%
20%
50%
Questions About Grading: Within one week of the return of a Personal Problem Set or Team Assignment, any question
about the assigned grade must be made either in person or via e-mail.
4
Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
Professor Shogan
BA 200Q, Fall 1999
THE OPTIMIZATION MODULE
WEEK
DATE
Oct. 19
9
Oct. 21
Oct. 25
10
Oct. 26
Oct. 28
Nov. 1
Nov. 2
11
Nov. 4
Nov. 8
12
13
Nov. 15
TOPIC
Graphical Introduction to
Linear Programming
Applications of Linear Programming and
Using Excel’s Built-in Solver
Discussion of Personal Problem Set #1
READING
ASSIGNMENT
Chapter 2
(pp. 16 - 39)
Chapter 3
(pp. 43 - 76)
PERSONAL PROBLEM SET
OR TEAM ASSIGNMENT DUE
Personal Problem Set #1: 2.7, 2.8, &
2.13
Chapter 3
Applications of Linear Programming and
(pp. 77 - 110)
Using Excel’s Built-in Solver (continued)
A Case Study (See note below table for
Merton Truck
See Note below.
discussion questions.)
Company
This discussion section is canceled. GSI will “roam” Computer Lab.
Introduction to Nonlinear Programming
Chapter 8
(pp. 300 - 317)
Two Applications of Nonlinear Programming: Chapter 8
Allocating an Advertising Budget and
(pp. 328 - 341 &
Portfolio Optimization
pp. 345 - 348)
Discussion of Personal Problem Set #2
Personal Problem Set #2: 3.10 (a)
only, 3.13, 3.14, 3.19, 3.28 (a) only, &
3.30(a) only (See Note below.)
Discussion of Personal Problem Set #3
Personal Problem Set #3: 8.13 (a)
only, 8.15 (a)-(d) only, & 8.19 (See
Note below.)
NOTE on Merton Truck Company: Come to class prepared to discuss the following problems at the case’s end: 1(a), 1(b), 1(c),
3(a), and 5.
NOTE ON PROBLEM 3.30: In Problem 3.30, it states that the daughter "will be starting college in 6 years". Assume that this
means at the beginning of Year 6.
5
Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
Professor Shogan
BA 200Q, Fall 1999
NOTE ON PROBLEM SET #3: You need only turn in any TWO of the three problems (your choice of which two!). However, at
some point before the take-home final (and especially if you have trouble with the two problems you choose to submit), you shou ld
work the unchosen third problem.
THE SIMULATION MODULE
WEEK
DATE
Nov. 8
Nov. 9
12
Nov. 11
Nov. 15
Nov. 16
13
Nov. 18
13
15
Nov. 22
Nov. 29
READING
PERSONAL PROBLEM SET
ASSIGNMENT
OR TEAM ASSIGNMENT DUE
See Previous page for Optimization Module.
Introduction to Simulation
Handout Chapter
(pp. 1 - 6)
Applications of Simulation and Using Crystal Handout Chapter
Ball , an Add-in to Excel
(pp. 6 – 31)
See previous page for Optimization Module.
Applications of Simulation and Using Crystal
Ball, an Add-in to Excel (continued)
Next Event Simulation
Team Assignment #1 is due no later
than Thursday, November 18, at 5:00
PM.
This discussion section is canceled. GSI will “roam” Computer Lab.
Discussion of Personal Problem Set #4
Personal Problem Set #4: 13.14,
13.16 (a)-(d) only, & 13.19 (See
Notes below.)
TOPIC
NOTE ON PERSONAL PROBLEM SET #4: You need only turn in any TWO of the three problems – 13.19 and either 13.14 or 13.16 However, at
some point before the take-home final (and especially if you have trouble with the two problems you choose to submit), you should work the
unchosen third problem.
NOTE ON PROBLEM 13.14: Make the simplifying assumption that NO PORTION of the annual $13,000 "mortgage payment" is tax deductible;
that is, taxes are paid on the net profit BEFORE making the annual $13,000 payment. Also, in part (b) of the problem, the phrase “track: 1) the
minimum amount of money Ray makes over the five-year period represented by each replication” is stated more clearly as “track: 1) the minimum
ANNUAL amount of money ...”. Use the forecast cell tracking this quantity to answer the question posed in part (c).
NOTE ON PROBLEM 13.16: In designing the spreadsheet, use Crystal Ball’s Custom Distribution to generate the random weekly number of
repair claims, and use Crystal Ball’s Normal Distribution to generate the average repair bill per claim. Then multiply these two quantities to
compute the total weekly claims from “non-totaled” cars. Also in designing the spreadsheet, use Crystal Ball’s Triangular Distribution to generate
the cost of a “totaled car” (if there is one). The problem is worded vaguely with respect to the weekly number of "totaled" cars. To conform to the
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Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
Professor Shogan
BA 200Q, Fall 1999
Answer Sheet’s interpretation, assume that, in any given week, there is either 1 claim for a "totaled" car (with probability 0.2) or 0 claims for a
"totaled" car (with probability 0.8); that is, in any given week, there is no chance of receiving more than one claim for a “totaled” car.
NOTE ON PROBLEM 13.19: Make the simplifying assumption that the demand for sweatshirts can be non-integer.
THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT MODULE
WEEK
14
DATE
Nov. 22
Nov. 23
Nov. 25
Nov. 29
READING
PERSONAL PROBLEM SET
TOPIC
ASSIGNMENT
OR TEAM ASSIGNMENT DUE
See previous page for Simulation Module.
The Quantitative Techniques of
Chapter 15
Project Management
(pp. 624 - 638)
Happy Thanksgiving!!!
Personal Problem Set #5: 15.9 (See
Discussion of Personal Problem Set #5
Notes below.)
15
Nov. 30
Dec. 2
Using Microsoft Project
Special Topics and Review
Team Assignment #2 is due no later
than Thursday, December 2, at 5:00
PM.
NOTE ON PERSONAL PROBLEM SETS #4 & #5: On, Monday, November 29 both Personal Problem Sets #4 and #5
are due and will be discussed. You will find PPS #5’s single problem easy to do (probably in less than 30 minutes),
thereby permitting the GSIs to devote almost all of the Discussion Session to PPS #4.
NOTE ON PROBLEM 15.9: In 15.9(b) & (d), do NOT use Linear Programming to determine each activity’s EST, EFT,
LST, and LFT; instead, determine them manually, as we did during lecture.
7
Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
Professor Shogan
BA 200Q, Fall 1999
LINKS TO OTHER WEBSITES
URL
www.haas.berkeley.edu/~mbaa/haasCre
do.html
www.msci.vt.edu/faculty/Ragsdale/smda
www.frontsys.com
www.decisioneering.com
OWNER
Haas MBA Association
Textbook’s Author
Frontline Systems,
developer of Excel’s Solver
Decisioneering,
developer of Crystal Ball
HIGHLIGHTS
•
Haas Credo
•
•
•
•
•
•
Summary of errata in textbook.
Review basics of Excel.
Download upgrade of Solver.
Tutorial on Optimization
Get tech support via Help for ...Users.
Download a fully-functioning, 7-day version
by clicking Free 7-day evaluation versions.
To view summaries of customer applications
(searchable by application type or by
company), click Application Stories in the left
window.
Click Technical Support in the left window to
search for help.
Under Education and Student Affairs, browse
Student Union and Career Booklet.
Under What’s New, view INFORMS Press
Releases and OR/MS in the Press.
After successively clicking NEOS Guide and
Case Studies, view interactive applications
such as the Diet Problem and Portfolio
Optimization.
After successively clicking Guide and FAQs,
view answers to FAQ about linear
programming and nonlinear programming.
•
•
www.informs.org
www.mcs.anl.gov/otc
Institute for Operations Research
and the Management Sciences
Operations Technology Center by
Argonne National Laboratory and
Northwestern University
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