1
Office of Economic & Manpower Analysis
Department of Social Sciences, United States Military Academy
Senior Conference 2014
Talent Management
– Fostering Institutional Agility –
(845) 938-7057
DSN 688-7057
Senior Leaders’ Call for Institutional Agility
“How can the Army break-up the institutional concrete, its
bureaucratic rigidity in its assignments and promotion
processes? It must re-think the way it deals with the
outstanding leaders in its ranks.”
“DoD functions have evolved over time to be resistant to
change, relying heavily upon approved processes. The
rapid timelines for leadership change have resulted in
a culture that can ‘wait out’ strategic initiatives.”
“65% of active duty General Officers rated ‘personnel
management’ as one of the worst performing functions in the
Army. As one General noted, ‘human capital’ is the most
important yet the least agile system. As an Army of people,
the thing we do worst is managing those people.”
2
SHOCK: Spanish-American War (1898)
Adaptation: Root Reforms
• General Staff System
• Professional Military Education (PME) System
• Army National Guard (Dick Act)
SHOCK: World War I (1914)
Adaptation: Preparedness Movement
• Officer Training Schools (OTS)
• Officer Rating Scales
• Officer Reserve Corps (1920)
SHOCK: World War II (1939)
Adaptation: Marshall Reforms
• Officer Candidate School
• ROTC and West Point Expansion
• Army Vitalization Act (Plucking Boards)
SHOCK: Cold War (1945)
Adaptation: 1947 National Security Act
• Officer Personnel Act (1947)
• All Volunteer Force (1974)
• DOPMA (1980)
SHOCK: Homeland Attacks, Terrorism,
Information Age, Cyber Space, Robotics,
Globalization, Social Media, Emerging
markets, Climate Change...
Adaptation: ?????
1. History of Military
Labor Force
Adaptations
A time traveling
officer from the
1950s would be
very familiar
with today’s Officer
Personnel Management
Nations rise and fall
based on their ability to
adapt to changing times,
efficiently manage
scarce resources, and
innovate.
3
2. Standardized Career Path Limits Diversity and Creates
a Mismatch Between Talent Inventory and Requirements
PL → CO → S3 → XO → BN → BDE → DIV
Army
Leadership
Colonels
Non-Ops
Experts
Lieutenant Colonels
and Majors
Senior
Captains
Junior Captains
Operators: “MTOE Billets”
Lieutenants
Non-Ops: “TDA Billets”
“Sometimes, the top officers receive the wrong development”
AND
“Sometimes, the wrong officers receive the top jobs”
Office of Economic & Manpower Analysis - FOUO
4
3. Evaluation Reports that Amount to Little More than an
Abstract for a 300 page book.
75 words
75 words
68 words
The new OER allows for 1,456 characters (242 words) that matter mostly for promotion.
5
4. Limited Information on its Talent Inventory
- Even Less Information on Talent Requirements The Army has Limited Visibility on the Cultural Fluency Within its Officer Ranks
Current Army Data: 28% of Countries
Green Pages Data: 72% of Countries
Certification
11% of the 700 Engineer Officers in
the Green Pages Pilot have Hidden
Engineer Credentials Valued at over
$16 Million
American Welding Society (AWS)
Automotive Service Excellence
Certified Facility Manager
Certified Professional Engineer
Certified Project Manager
Engineer In Training
PE Civil
PE Environmental
Professional Geologist
6
5. Senior Officer Graduate Education is Becoming Less Diverse
Share of BG Cohort by Type of Graduate Education
75%
70%
1995
2000
2005
2010
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Civilian Academic
Institution
Distance Learning
Degree
Military Education
System Only
Type of Graduate Degree
Office of Economic & Manpower Analysis - FOUO
7
6. Practices Replacement Instead of Succession Planning
Jan 2011: USACE CG
LTG Van Antwerp
USACE CG
(June 2007 – June 2011)
Jan 2011: DCS-G1
Jan 2011: FORSCOM DCG
LTG Bostick
LTG Bromberg
DCS-G1
(March 2010 – May 2012)
FORSCOM DCG
(Jan 2011 – July 2012)
Nominated for USACE: April 2011
DCS-G1: July 2012 - July 2014
USACE CG: May 2012
Previous Assignments
CG, Fort Bliss
CG, 32d AAMDC
HRC (EPMD – 2004)
8
7. Woefully Insufficient Senior Officer Tenure
Years
Army Staff
Officer Churn
Corporate Versus Army Tenure
7
6
100%
“The commercial world often enjoys longevity in
leadership that DoD does not….Case studies agree that
five to seven years are needed to achieve cultural
change.”
- Defense Science Board, 2011
5
90%
80%
70%
Corporate
Army*
4
60%
50%
3
1
Year
40%
30%
2
20%
2
Years
1
10%
0
0%
CEO CSA VCSA DAS
CHRO G1
Office of Economic & Manpower Analysis - FOUO
COO** G3/5/7
CIO
G6
CFO G8
Army Staff
9
Framework for an Officer Corps Strategy
Access - Develop - Retain - Employ
'Talent'
Objective
Limited Lateral Entry
Professional commanders,
executives, and advisors
Develop
Retain
Employ
Access
Develop
Retain
Employ
Develop
Retain
Employ
Limited Lateral Entry
Junior Grade
Mid-Career
Senior Leaders
“Learn the Profession”
“Practice the Profession”
“Lead the Profession”
0
ADSO
Office of Economic & Manpower Analysis - FOUO
10
Years
20
30
10
www.talent.army.mil
11
Defining the Dimensions of Individual Talent for the Army
TALENT
SKILLS
KNOWLEDGE
BEHAVIORS
Are shaped by:
Is shaped by:
Are shaped by:
Native Ability
Education
Character
Intelligences
Training
Ethics / Values
Preferences
Experience
Goals / Beliefs
Background
Tenure
Teamwork
HUMAN CAPITAL THEORY
12
Concept of Army Talent Management
Bob’s Talent
Distribution
Talent Requirements
Job A
JOB
A
Organizational Team
TALENT MARKET
JOB C
JOB
S
A
JOB B
JOB D
D
JOB B
Cheryl’s Talent
Distribution
Talent Requirements
Job B
13
Fostering Institutional Agility to Manage Officer Talent
LT
CPT
MAJ
From apprentice
to practitioner
Developed to create
senior officer talent pools
PME 1
Command
& General
Staff
College
ILE
Learn the Profession
0
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
2
4
6
8
Practice the Profession
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
SENIOR LEADERS
Professional Commanders,
Executives, and Advisors
PME 2
War
College
(SSC)
11
18
Years of Commissioned Service
Objectives
Differentiate people
Have as many career paths as unique people
Invest In Continuing Specialized Education
Improve succession planning
Provide sufficient assignment tenure
Office of Economic & Manpower Analysis - FOUO
LTC
20
Lead the Profession
30+
Adaptation
Emplace information markets
Remove Yeargroups/Promotions
Make education the focal point
Constantly manage talent pools
Select for work – not the job
14
Status Quo is No Longer an Option
LABOR
ECONOMIC
THREAT
SHOCK: Homeland Attacks, Terrorism, Information Age, Cyber Space,
Robotics, Globalization, Social Media, Emerging Markets, Climate Change.
Adaptation: Institutional Agility Reforms
• Instituted a Talent Management HR Paradigm
• Increased Talent Diversity to Mitigate Increasing Future Uncertainty
15
• Reduced Officer Churn and Increased Tenure for Strategic Leaders
Back Up Slides
Office of Economic & Manpower Analysis - FOUO
Change
Increasing Land Power Production
by Fostering Institutional Adaptability
Maximum Land Power Potential
Change
Land Power Production Possibility Frontier
Greater Land Power
Production
Capital
(K)
U.S.
U.S.
China
China
Russia
Iraq
Iraq
Minimal Land Power Potential
Labor
(L)
α
β
Land Power Production = T (K L )
Increase Amount
Improve Efficiency
- or [ Technology (T) ]
[ K and/or L ]
($$$)
($$$$$$)
17
4. Industrial-Age Interchangeable Labor by Branch and Rank
Company Grade
Field Grade
Senior Leader
Infantry
Military
Police
Logistics
18
Succession Planning Imperatives
INDIVIDUAL
TALENTS:
What’s Needed to
Perform Optimally?
Replacement Planning:
Choose for the Position.
Succession Planning:
Select for the Work.
WORK
REQUIREMENTS:
What’s the Work?
How Long to Do It?
Who’s on the Team?
GO Vacancy
Talent Supply
Considerations
INDIVIDUAL
TALENT GAPS:
What Development
Can the Work
Provide?
Talent Demand
Considerations
Moves the discussion from
“Who Do We Have?”
to
“Who Do We Need?”
CURRENT &
FUTURE
SITUATION:
Who’s Right Today?
Tomorrow?
19
The Current Evaluation System
Less than 1%
of officers
receive a
“No”
Less than 1%
of officers
receive a “No”
in any block
Office of Economic & Manpower Analysis - FOUO
20
The Current Evaluation System
99% of officers are
“outstanding
performers, must
promote”
66% of officers are
best suited for
command?
99% of officers are
“best qualified”
Rarely Used
Less than 15%
of OERs
contain useful
information on
unique skills
48% of officers rated Above Center Mass (ACOM)
50% of officer rated Center of Mass (COM)
2% of officers rated Below Center Mass
Only Field Grade
Officers are
Ranked
Office of Economic & Manpower Analysis - FOUO
73% of officers are
best suited for
command?
21
Senior Leaders’ Call for Change: an Adaptable Organization
“A survey we conducted…found that 65% of active duty General Officers rated ‘personnel management’ as one of
the worst performing functions in the Army. As one General noted, ‘human capital’ is the most important yet the
least agile system…. As an Army of people, the thing we do worst is managing those people.”
“My passion for transforming the Generating Force [Institutional Army] – centered on how we manage our people
– will shape my tenure as Secretary.”
“Meeting these challenges requires truly transforming how we manage our people…. achieving institutional
adaptability through a…system that rapidly responds to organizational requirements for talent.”
- SECARMY McHugh, April, June 2011
“Army leaders…[must] exhibit critical thinking, comfort with ambiguity and decentralization, a willingness to
accept prudent risk, and an ability to make rapid adjustments…”
“The Army must also…expand efforts to develop leaders who have expertise in relevant disciplines through
broadening experiences and…high quality graduate education…”
- The Army Capstone Concept
“Unfortunately, DoD…functions…have evolved over time to be resistant to change and rely heavily upon approved
processes.”
“The rapid…timelines for leadership change in the DoD have resulted in a culture that can ‘wait out’ [strategic]
initiatives.”
“DoD incentives are largely compliance-driven rather than results-focused, which leads the Department too often to
optimize around process rather than delivering capability…
- Defense Science Board
“How can the Army break-up the institutional concrete, its bureaucratic rigidity in its assignments and promotion
processes?.... It must…re-think the way it deals with the outstanding…leaders in its…ranks.
…in theater, junior leaders are given extraordinary opportunities to be innovative…. The opposite is too often true
in the…stateside bureaucracies in which so many of our mid-level officers are warehoused.”
- SECDEF Robert Gates, 2011
22
Tectonic Shifts
I. Economic – competition, relative decline in investment, & outsized debt foster substantial uncertainty
• Globalization increases competition; competitive advantage shifts to nations with the lowest production costs.
• The growth rate of output in the U.S. has averaged only 1.6 percent over the past decade, compared to growth rates of greater
than 10 percent for emerging economies such as Brazil, India and China.
• China’s economy will grow from 1/3rd the size of the U.S. in 2010 to roughly 2 times the size of the U.S. economy in 2050.
• The “Great Recession” caused a sharp drop in federal tax collections and much higher government outlays. As a result, the U.S.
deficit-to-GDP ratio is nearly 8 percent and the ratio of public debt to GDP (68 percent) is the highest since 1950.
• The persistent and growing national debt will require cuts to government spending: Defense will compete for scarce budgetary
resources with growing outlays on entitlement programs (Social Security and Medicare).
II. Labor Force – changing nature of work stimulates significant demand for high-skilled labor
• The U.S. economy is now a post-industrial, knowledge-based economy: manufacturing’s share of employment is currently 1/3rd
its 1970 level; knowledge-intensive services as a share of employment has doubled over this same time.
• Skill-biased technological change has significantly increased the demand for college-educated workers (75% faster than the
increase in the supply of such workers; the proportion of college degree workers has grown from 14% to 30% since 1970).
• Increased demand for high-skilled workers has doubled relative wage premiums for college graduates during the past 40 years.
III. Threat – expanding the focus from kinetic to economic and asymmetric
• Military Force is important for sustaining national security; world powers rise & fall based on the strength of their economies.
With the pace of change & globalization, the state of the US military is increasingly linked to the state of the US economy.
• The U.S. economy and military are increasingly more vulnerable to asymmetric hostile attacks: cyber threats, utility grids,
industrial and manufacturing backbone, banking systems, intellectual property theft, military technology, viral internet videos, etc.
• Economic growth requires investments in physical & human capital: More than half of China’s GDP is devoted to investment,
compared to roughly one-sixth of U.S. GDP; the share of U.S. workers with college degrees has stagnated in the past decade.
• The rise of emerging economies may threaten the status of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, leading to a decrease
in the demand for dollars and dollar denominated assets. Decreased demand for dollars will weaken the dollar’s value, and could
spur higher inflation and higher interest rates; both place uncertain stress on the military’s ability to provide national security.
23
Senior Officer Talent Management Model
Certifications, Succession Planning, Tenure, and Multiple Career Paths
Professional Commanders, Executives, and Advisors
Shaping
COL
LTC
Shaping
Non-Operational Billets
10 10
Must Control Flow
GO
Operational Billets
9f
9
9
8e
8f
8
8
9h
9g
7e
7f
7f
7
7
7i
7h 8g 7g
6d 6e
6f
6f
6
6
6j
6i 6h 6g
6g
6
6
5f
5f 5m 5k
5j
5i 5h 5g
5g
5g
5
5
Mid
Career
Screen
Vetting
Culling
Vertical
6
5
Senior
Leader
5d 5e
5f
Horizontal
Screen
Vetting
Culling
Cut Pt 2
20 YOS
LTC
5
5
5
5
5f
5f
5
5
5
5
5
5
5g
5g
5g
5
MAJ
4
4
4
4
4
4
4f
4f
4
4
4
4
4
4g
4g
4
CPT
Cut Pt 1
3
3
3
3
3
3
3f
3f
3
3
3
3
3
3g
3g
3
Command
CPT
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
LT
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Office of Economic & Manpower Analysis - FOUO
Junior
Officer
Screen
Vetting
Culling
24